Authored by Stephen Katte via CoinTelegraph.com,

US President Donald Trump is reportedly set to sign an executive order that could allow American 401(k) retirement plans to invest in alternative assets outside of stocks and bonds, such as cryptocurrencies. 

The executive order could be signed sometime this week, the Financial Times reported on Thursday, citing three people who have been briefed on the plans. 

The new 401(k) investment options could run across a broad spectrum of assets, including digital assets, metals and funds focused on infrastructure deals, corporate takeovers and private loans. 

The executive order would instruct Washington regulatory agencies to investigate the best path forward for 401(k) plans to start investing in crypto, and investigate any remaining obstacles to making it a reality, according to the Financial Times. 

Bitcoin has outperformed the Nasdaq in annual returns for five out of the last six years. Source: Curvo

Trump has the final say on whether it’s official 

However, in a statement to Cointelegraph, White House spokesman Kush Desai said nothing should be deemed as official unless it comes from Trump himself. 

“President Trump is committed to restoring prosperity for everyday Americans and safeguarding their economic future,” he said. 

“No decisions should be deemed official, however, unless they come from President Trump himself.” 

In May, the US Labor Department rescinded guidance issued during the Biden administration that limited the inclusion of cryptocurrency in 401(k) retirement plans.

Meanwhile, in April, Cointelegraph reported that financial services company Fidelity, which has $5.9 trillion in assets under management, introduced a new retirement account allowing Americans to invest in crypto.

Standard 401(k) focuses on stocks and bonds 

A 401(k) is a retirement savings plan offered by many US employers that allows employees to save and invest a portion of their paycheck in the funds before taxes are taken out.

Typically, investments focus on mutual funds, exchange-traded funds, stocks and bonds, depending on the plan. The 401(k) market held $8.9 trillion in assets as of Sept. 30, 2024, in more than 715,000 plans. 

At a state level, in March, North Carolina lawmakers already introduced bills in the House and Senate that could see the state’s treasurer allocate up to 5% of various state retirement funds into crypto like Bitcoin.

Other countries are looking at crypto in retirement plans

In November last year, the United Kingdom-based pension specialist Cartwright reported that an “unnamed scheme” had made a 3% allocation of Bitcoin into its pension fund.

Meanwhile, Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund was also considering Bitcoin as a potential diversification tool in March last year. 

Russia has blasted recent comments by a top US general who boasted about NATO’s claimed ability to swiftly capture the Russian Baltic exclave of Kaliningrad if the military action is deemed necessary.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Friday that “NATO is an instrument of confrontation, it is a bloc that is hostile towards our country” – in a press briefing. He was responding to prior words of General Christopher Donahue, the US Army Europe and Africa commander, who described provocatively that NATO could seize Kaliningrad “from the ground in a timeframe that is unheard of and faster than we’ve ever been able to do,” according to Defense News.

“This is yet another statement in a series of such hostile, aggressive statements that we now often hear from representatives of the defense departments of European countries,” Peskov added.

Gen. Donahue said the Western military alliance has already developed an operational plan to stymie the defensive potential of Russian forces in the Kaliningrad region. This is part of the new “Eastern Flank Deterrence Line,” he said.

“We know what we have to develop and the use case that we’re using is you have to [deter] from the ground,” the top commander continued.

“The land domain is not becoming less important, it’s becoming more important. You can now take down [anti-access, aerial-denial] A2AD bubbles from the ground. You can now take over sea from the ground. All of those things we are watching happen in Ukraine.”

And that’s when he specifically put focus on Kaliningrad, which is surrounded by Poland to the south and Lithuania to the north and east:

For example, Donahue noted, Kaliningrad, Russia, is roughly 47 miles wide and surrounded by NATO on all sides and the Army and its allies now have the capability to “take that down from the ground in a timeframe that is unheard of and faster than we’ve ever been able to do.”

“We’ve already planned that and we’ve already developed it. The mass and momentum problem that Russia poses to us … we’ve developed the capability to make sure that we can stop that mass and momentum problem,” Donahue added.

As for other recent issues raised by the West that Peskov responded strongly to in his Friday press briefing, the Putin spokesman said of EU efforts to drive forward the next anti-Moscow sanctions package, “We are against them [unilateral sanctions]. But at the same time, of course, we have already acquired a certain immunity from sanctions. We have adapted to life under sanctions.”

“Each new package [of sanctions] adds a negative effect for the countries that join it. This is a double-edged sword,” Peskov added. Thus the potential for direct confrontation with the West continues to heat up, with no off-ramp or a promising peace talk scenario anywhere on the horizon.

By Molly Schwartz, Cross-Asset Macro Strategist at Rabobank

Yesterday, G-20 finance ministers congregated in South Africa, though several delegates were noticeably absent, like Scott Bessent from the US. Bessent, of course, wasn’t playing hooky alone, as other truants included counterparts from Argentina, Australia, and France. That said, Bessent’s empty seat garnered special attention as the United States is not only the world’s largest economy, but is the source of global trade turmoil as Trump issues trade letters left and right.

Given the absence of communique from the G20 (at the time of writing), markets have turned their attention elsewhere, like economic data. Retail sales data out of the US registered an increase in pace from 0.1% m/m to 0.6% m/m, which was accompanied by stable jobless claims. The markets were pretty resistant to this data, closing the day near the opens with some minimal choppiness around the time the data were released. It should be noted that retail sales are published in terms of value, not volume. That means that this print was impacted by the recent pick up in US inflation, but signals some resilience in the American consumer.

In an environment clouded by uncertainty and obfuscation, we can look to none other than US President Trump as a source of transparency. Indeed, yesterday afternoon, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said that “the President has been very transparent about his displeasure with both the policies and the management of the Fed.” While tactful, it may also be the understatement of the century. After the retail sales data release, Trump publicly pushed for rate cuts once again truthing “’Too Late:’ Great numbers just out. LOWER THE RATE!!! DJT.” The rates market was unconvinced by Trump’s plea, with investors still positioned for around 1.7 cuts by year-end, the same positioning as before the data were released.

But while rates were unimpressed, equities marked new gains as the S&P 500 continued to climb upwards, setting new all time highs, breaking through $6,300. Meanwhile, USD also appeared to strengthen as the best performing G10 currency on a one-day basis, and maintaining its status as the best performing G10 currency month-to-date.

On the other end of the spectrum, AUD made for a pitiful performance, depreciating 0.63% against USD after the Australian unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in June–the highest rate since November 2021. A cut at the August 12 meeting had already been largely priced in by the market, but the recent labor data drove investors to price in around 45 more bp worth of cuts by 2025 year-end.  

Elsewhere, yesterday was CPI day, with releases hot off the press in the Eurozone. Eurozone aggregate CPI inflation final June estimates printed at a steady 2.0% y/y, while prices increased at a rate of 0.3% m/m. As these were final estimates, markets had already priced in these CPI data and neither European rates nor EUR saw much action.

Authored by Gary Abernathy via The Empowerment Alliance,

The Trump administration’s impressive efforts to reboot traditional, reliable energy in the U.S. are a godsend not only for Americans but for people around the world. Whether reversing Biden-era prohibitions against offshore drilling or fast-tracking permits for natural gas exploration and extraction, President Trump’s devotion to utilizing the most abundant and affordable energy sources on earth will keep Americans prosperous, healthy and free.

But breathing new life into tried-and-true energy resources is only half the battle. Just as important is putting the brakes on the disastrous expansion of so-called renewables like wind and solar when their existence depends on subsidies and other life-support measures. The vaunted “all of the above” approach to energy is reasonable only when “all” are able to compete on a level playing field and demonstrate they are reliable and profitable.

To be sure, there are instances where alternative energy is effective and economically sustainable – particularly at the micro level. Many homeowners have chosen to install rooftop solar panels to assist in their household power needs. Micro wind turbines are being utilized in limited capacity to perform such tasks as pumping water or charging batteries. In both cases, the technology is cost-effective for the intended limited purposes.

But the large-scale wind and solar farms that have sprouted up across the country are almost wholly supported by government subsidies and tax credits. As noted in January by the Institute for Energy Research, “Treasury Department figures show that subsidies for wind and solar dwarf all other energy-related provisions in the tax code, costing $31.4 billion in 2024, and are expected to cost taxpayers $421 billion more between 2025 and 2034 based on the subsidies in the Biden-Harris climate bill.”

The report added, “Federal tax expenditures for the investment tax credit (ITC) and production tax credit (PTC), which are the primary drivers behind the deployment of wind and solar energy, are, by far, the most expensive energy-related provisions in the federal tax code. Between 2025 and 2034, the ITC and PTC will account for more than half of all energy-related tax provisions.”

Those ballooning subsidies and credits are at odds with a government dedicated to shrinking the size of the federal bureaucracy, and they create an unbalanced and non-competitive energy marketplace. To that end, Trump presented a budget outline in early May that slashed subsidies for alternatives and cut billions from “climate change” programs favored by his predecessor.

According to Reuters, in addition to ending most subsidies, the energy budget proposal “cancels more than $15 billion in carbon capture and renewable energy funding” from President Biden’s misleadingly named Inflation Reduction Act of 2021. Also ended would be about $1.3 billion in grants issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration for “climate-dominated research.”

The story added, “The plan reorients Energy Department funding toward research and development of technologies that could produce an abundance of oil, gas, coal and critical minerals, nuclear reactors and advanced nuclear fuels, the White House said without further details.”

As of this writing, a battle is raging in Congress about the alternative energy cuts included in Trump’s “big, beautiful” bill. Some Senate Republicans want to extend the length of time before energy credits sunset. As reported by The Hill, the Senate version allows solar and wind farms that begin this year to receive the full credits.

“Before, when the bill was in the House, it demanded that those projects start only 60 days after the bill passed, essentially leaving no time for new clean energy investments,” The Hill reported. “The Senate is also allowing projects that begin construction in 2026 to receive 60% of the credit, in 2027 to receive 20% and in 2028 to receive no credits.”

Trump’s reaction to the more lenient Senate provisions has been unequivocable. “I HATE ‘GREEN TAX CREDITS’ IN THE GREAT, BIG, BEAUTIFUL BILL. They are largely a giant SCAM,” he posted on social media. “Windmills, and the rest of this ‘JUNK’ are the most expensive and inefficient energy in the world, is destroying the beauty of the environment, and is 10 times more costly than any other energy. None of it works without massive government subsidy (energy should NOT NEED SUBSIDY!). Also, it is almost exclusively made in China!!! It is time to break away, finally, from this craziness!!!”

Trump’s bombastic style aside, it’s hard to argue with his main points. Still, political realities – lawmakers worrying about curtailing jobs in their states already underway or in the pipeline – mean a final bill will probably include more subsidies for more years than Trump would prefer.

But even if it’s not ideal, the bill that comes out of the current Congress will still represent a comparative about-face from the draconian mandates, subsidies and credits for alternatives foisted upon us by the Biden administration. However imperfect the coming budget bill might be, our energy future will indeed be big and beautiful compared to what could have been.

Gary Abernathy is a longtime newspaper editor, reporter and columnist. He was a contributing columnist for the Washington Post from 2017-2023 and a frequent guest analyst across numerous media platforms. He is a contributing columnist for The Empowerment Alliance, which advocates for realistic approaches to energy consumption and environmental conservation. Abernathy’s “TEA Takes” column will be published every Wednesday and delivered to your inbox!

In a decisive move for the future of Bitcoin and crypto in the United States, the House of Representatives has officially passed the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act,  , and the Anti-Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) Act. 

As Bitcoin Magazine reports, all three bills are backed by President Donald Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and the GENIUS Act is now headed to the President’s desk for his signature, while the Anti-CBDC Act is headed to the Senate. 

Another legislative win for President Trump as the House has just overwhelming passed the pro-crypto, GENIUS Act. Backed by President Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, the bill now goes to Trump’s desk to be signed into law. pic.twitter.com/nawLrnXY9f

— Charlie Kirk (@charliekirk11) July 17, 2025

The GENIUS Act lays out a regulatory framework for stablecoin issuers, requiring them to back coins with reserves and comply with strict oversight. It is being hailed as a strategic push to solidify the U.S. as a leader in the digital asset space. 

BREAKING: 🇺🇸 US House PASSES The GENIUS Act. pic.twitter.com/K2SmyqkDiO

— Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) July 17, 2025

Simultaneously, the House also passed the Anti-CBDC Act, which prohibits the Federal Reserve from issuing a U.S. central bank digital currency. The bill reflects growing concerns over surveillance risks and the potential for government overreach that CBDCs could pose. Republican lawmakers and crypto advocates have long warned against the implementation of a digital dollar that could threaten personal privacy and financial autonomy.  

BREAKING: 🇺🇸 US House set to PASS Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act. pic.twitter.com/k5f7Ypvxuq

— Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) July 17, 2025

The GENIUS Act’s passage of the House and Senate is especially notable for its bipartisan support and strategic implications. Backed by the Trump administration, the bill signals a pro-crypto stance at the highest levels of government. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s endorsement further solidifies the administration’s commitment to digital asset reform. 

Additionally, The US House of Representatives has officially passed the CLARITY Act (H.R. 3633) by a vote of 294-134, a major step toward creating a clear regulatory framework for digital commodities like Bitcoin.

BREAKING: 🇺🇸 US House set to PASS crypto market structure bill the Clarity Act of 2025. pic.twitter.com/mHu4u4z6nt

— Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) July 17, 2025

“The Clarity Act helps us get there by adding consumer protection into law and setting clear guidelines for digital asset managers,” stated Congressman John Rose. “It also establishes guardrails for federal agencies, who have too often stepped outside their statutory authority in recent years, especially with cryptocurrency. The bill offers modern solutions to a modern financial sector that grows in popularity and relevance by the hour.”

The legislation aims to define and divide regulatory oversight between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), establishing clear rules in a complex digital asset market. With the final House vote now complete, the bill will advance to the Senate for further consideration.

“This bill helps establish a strong, pro-growth framework that gives innovators certainty that will bring digital assets back to the U.S.,” said Congressman Addison McDowell. “A key step to making America the Crypto Capital of the World.”

If passed by the Senate, the CLARITY Act would mark a significant milestone in the federal government’s approach to bitcoin and crypto regulation, which aims to support innovation while addressing regulatory uncertainty that has long challenged the industry.

“At present, there is no established market structure to protect consumers or provide clear rules of the road for businesses and innovators,” stated Congressman Don Davis.

“It’s the wild, wild west! Congress must deliver market structure legislation that brings clarity. Millions of Americans are holding cryptocurrency, using it in financial transactions, or using other digital tokens as part of new, innovative technologies and services. There must be consumer protections, and the United States must lead.”

The apparent success of ‘Crypto Week’ has helped drive a surge in inflows into ETH and BTC ETFs and sent prices of both the leading cryptocurrencies soaring (ETH more than BTC).

The rise in prices across the crypto ecosystem has lifted the total market capitalization to $4 trillion…

Bitcoin topped $120,000 again on Thursday following a minor daily gain, but Ether and XRP are surging after the US House passed three key crypto bills ahead of the August recess. 

Ether prices rose 8% to top $3,600 for the first time since early January, culminating in a 40% gain for the asset over the past fortnight.

Meanwhile, the Ripple cross-border token XRP skyrocketed almost 20% on the day to a year-to-date high of $3.64 in early trading on Friday. 

“Traders see digital asset prices surge from regulatory and institutional support,” director at LVRG Research, Nick Ruck, told Cointelegraph.

“We’re optimistic that this growth will continue as institutions race to advance integration with the crypto industry.”

While the GENIUS Act is focused on stablecoins, it creates regulatory clarity that could pave the way for Bitcoin and crypto adoption. Meanwhile, the rejection of a state-run CBDC removes what many in the industry view as a direct competitor to decentralized currencies like Bitcoin. 

Despite homebuilder confidence in the toilet (and Pulte’s daily calls alongside Trump for lower rates), US Housing Starts and Permits surprised to the upside in June.

• Housing Starts jumped 4.6% MoM (+3.5% MoM exp), rebounding from May’s 9.7% MoM tumble.

• Building Permits rose 0.2% MoM (-0.5% MoM exp), also rebounding from May’s 2.0% MoM decline.

Source: Bloomberg

Although in context, this lifts the Starts and Permits SAAR just barely off the lowest levels since the COVID lockdowns…

Source: Bloomberg

A surge in Multi-family unit starts and permits saved the month, while single-family home starts and permits were not pretty…

Source: Bloomberg

But, and it’s a big but, there is a big housing problem: US home construction pipeline is hopelessly clogged up, with completions crashing to 3 year low as builders prefer to hold off completing current units rather than go to market now, as they expect even higher prices.  

Cartel behavior to limit supply? Or did the deportation of all those illegals leave the country without anyone who knows how to build a house?

The question we have for the government is simple – if housing construction is crashing, why aren’t construction jobs?

Will lower Fed Fund rates do anything to lower mortgage rates? Or will the implied curve steepening further crush affordability? Dear Mr. Trump, be careful what you wish for.

US equity futures are flat even as the global equity rally extended into Europe, following Friday’s gains in Asia and Thursday’s record close on Wall Street. As of 8:00am, S&P futures are unchanged while Nasdaq 100 futures rise 0.1% after NFLX had a solid report, but market reactions were muted amid high expectations. Europe’s Stoxx 600 initially rose 0.4% but has since erased gains, with Energy stocks outperforming and tracking a two-day advance in oil prices as Brent crude futures climb 1.2% to above $70 per barrel. Pre-market in the US, megacap tech sees NVDA up modestly (+0.4%), followed by AAPL and GOOGL. Consumer Staples and Financials are outperforming. The dollar and 2Y rates dropped after Fed Governor Christopher Waller repeated his recent view that the Fed should cut 25bps this month. Yields are lower and USD is weaker; 2-, 5-, 10-, and 30-year yields are down by 1-2bps. Commodities are mixed, with Oil and Precious Metals higher, while Base Metals are flat. The combined value of cryptoassets soared beyond $4 trillion for the first time, fueled by a surge in Ethereum and momentum from a legislative push to regulate the sector. Looking at today’s calendar, the US economic data slate includes June housing starts (8:30am) and July preliminary University of Michigan sentiment (10am). Fed speaker slate includes only Waller, and Fed officials’ external communications blackout ahead of their July 30 decision starts Saturday

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are higher (Nvidia +0.4%, Tesla +0.3%, Alphabet +0.4%, Microsoft +0.2%, Apple +0.1%, Amazon +0.1%, Meta Platforms +0.2%). Here are some other notable premarket movers: 

• American Express Co. (AXP) rises 1.7% after the company’s billed business on its cards and other products outperformed expectations in the second quarter as its affluent customers continued to spend.
• Blaize (BZAI) surges 100% after the company secured a contract to deploy its hybrid AI platform across Asia in collaboration with Starshine Computing Power Technology.
• Hess Corp. (HES) rises 7% after winning its arbitration battle with Exxon Mobil Corp., clearing the way for it to be bought by Chevron Corp. more than 20 months after the $53 billion deal was announced. Chevron (CVX) shares are up 3%
• Interactive Brokers (IBKR) rises 5% after reporting total net interest income for the second quarter that beat the average analyst estimate
• Netflix (NFLX) falls 1.7% after the streaming-video company’s strong second-quarter results clashed against high expectations. The stock has been a strong performer this year, up nearly 50% off an April low.
• Sable Offshore (SOC) rises 6% after a Santa Barbara judge issued a preliminary ruling on the oil and gas company’s Las Flores Pipelines.
• Sarepta (SRPT) sinks 31% after the gene therapy maker said another patient has died from acute liver failure after receiving one of its experimental gene therapies for a muscle disease.
• Symbotic (SYM) slips 1.8% after Deutsche Bank cut the automation technology company to hold, citing that much of the stock’s growth is already priced in at the current valuation.
• Viatris (VTRS) falls 3% after saying its Phase 3 trial of pimecrolimus 0.3% ophthalmic ointment for blepharitis did not meet the primary endpoint, prompting the company to review its development plans.

The dollars dipped and treasuries advanced, with the 10-year yield down two basis points to 4.43%, after Fed governor Waller again backed a July interest-rate cut to support a softening labor market. The message failed to catch on in money markets, with swaps pricing less than a 60% chance of a quarter-point cut in September and assign no probability to easing this month. The cross-asset moves come at the end of a week marked by market jitters over speculation that President Donald Trump might fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell. And sure enough, Trump continued his Fed attacks on Friday, saying policymakers “are choking out the housing market with their high rate.”

Meanwhile, the week’s market gains reflected strong economic data and optimism that US companies will post robust second-quarter figures, helping to soothe uncertainty stirred by Trump’s tariff war. Early results show S&P 500 earnings are on track to rise 3.2% for the second quarter, slightly ahead of pre-season expectations of 2.8%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence.

And speaking of earnings, on Friday, 3M raised its profit forecast and beat Wall Street’s estimates as CEO William Brown’s effort to reinvigorate the company gained momentum. American Express’s billed business on its cards and other products also beat forecasts. On Thursday, Netflix’s results surpassed expectations across all key metrics and raised its full-year outlook for both revenue and profit margins. The stock slipped in premarket trading after a near 50% rally from its April low.

“All that helps to reinforce the bull case for equities, with this solid underlying economic momentum likely to see earnings growth remain healthy,” said Michael Brown, senior research strategist at Pepperstone.

In trade, EU purposed scrapping 10% duty on US cars if Trump lowers 25% tariff below 20%, crude is bid as the EU adopted its 18th sanction package against Russia capping oil price at $47 per barrel, and the US House passed the GENIUS ACT to regulate stablecoins which now heads to the President to sign.

Elsewhere, the share of global equity flows heading to the US has plunged in 2025, BofA’s Michael Hartnett wrote, as the trade war raises doubts about so-called American exceptionalism. US stock funds attracted just under half of total flows so far this year, compared with 72% in 2024. For Mohit Kumar, chief European strategist at Jefferies International, risk assets are likely to remain well supported until next month, when US employment data may start to show some weakness. 

“We remain positive on risky assets over the coming weeks, though we have taken some chips off the table,” Kumar noted. “Technicals will start to  shift in August.”

Also don’t forget that today is a big option expiration Friday with over $2.8 trillion of notional options exposure will expire including $1.5 trillion of SPX options and $660 billion notional of single stock options. The notional open interest for this expiration is similar to that of last July. Next week we get ~23% of SPX mkt cap reporting and Powell speaking at a conference on Tuesday. 

Europe’s Stoxx 600 initially rose 0.4% but has since erased gains, with Energy stocks outperforming and tracking a two-day advance in oil prices as Brent crude futures climb 1.2% to above $70 per barrel. Mining stocks also outperform after BHP delivered an upbeat assessment of Chinese demand. US equity futures edged higher. Here are the biggest European movers: 

• Saab shares soar as much as 13% to hit an all-time high after the defense technology business posted sales above expectations in the second quarter and raised its growth outlook for the full year.
• Reckitt Benckiser shares rise as much as 2.2% after the UK consumer goods company agreed to sell most of its homecare business to Advent International for an enterprise value of up to $4.8 billion.
• Vestas shares rise as much as 12%, hitting the highest level since May, after the wind turbine company announced a large order in the US amid a paucity of order activity in the region.
• SKF advances as much as 5.5%, the most since May, after the Swedish ball-bearings giant reported a strong set of 2Q results, with analysts positively noting the company’s resilient sales and margins.
• Senior shares jump as much as 19%, soaring to a 2019-high, after the company struck a deal to offload its Aerostructures business.
• Getinge shares rise as much as 7.2%, the most since April 10, after the Swedish health-care equipment firm reported adjusted operating profit for the second quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
• GSK shares drop as much as 6.9%, the most since April 9, after the company’s blood cancer drug Blenrep failed to secure the backing of a panel of US regulatory advisers, putting its approval in doubt.
• Kone falls as much as 4.6%, the most since April, after the Finnish elevator and escalator group’s second-quarter earnings slightly missed expectations in a report analysts otherwise deem as “mixed.”
• Billerud drops as much as 8.6%, hitting the lowest since March 2024, as the paper and packaging firm delivered second-quarter results below analyst expectations, driven by weakness in Europe.
• Yara International shares drop as much as 3.5%, making it the biggest laggard in the European chemicals space today, after posting quarterly adjusted Ebitda a touch below expectations.
• Salzgitter slumps as much as 13%, the most since September 2022, after the steelmaker revealed second-quarter Ebitda that came in significantly below consensus expectations.
• Electrolux falls as much as 14%, the most since April, after the Swedish home appliances maker reported weak underlying topline figures.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks gained for the week, helped by a jump in technology shares. Hong Kong’s equity market resumed a recent advance. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 0.6%, putting the gauge on track for its first weekly gain in three weeks. TSMC was the biggest boost to the index, with sentiment aided by the chipmaker’s bullish sales outlook a day earlier.  The Hang Seng Index rose 1.3% to the highest level in more than three years, as tech and financial stocks led the charge.  Elsewhere, Japanese stocks dipped as investors remained cautious ahead of Sunday’s upper house election, with polls suggesting a potential loss of majority for Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s Liberal Democratic Party.  Here Are the Most Notable Movers

• Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.’s Taipei-listed shares closed up 2.2% to hit a record after the chipmaker raised its full-year forecast for revenue growth, a positive signal for AI demand.
• Disco shares plunge after its quarterly shipment guidance disappoints investors. Seven & i’s stock fell after Macquarie cut its rating following Alimentation Couche-Tard’s bid withdrawal.
• DigiPlus Interactive Corp. has turned from one of the world’s hottest casino stocks to the absolute worst as the Philippines moves to curb online gambling.
• Wilmar International shares rise as much as 3%, the most since April 10, after announcing its plan to acquire up to 20% of AWL Agri Business Ltd. from Adani Commodities.
• Wipro rises as much as 4.3% as analysts remain cautiously optimistic on the company after an in-line 1Q, strong deal wins and potential revenue recovery in 2Q.
• Axis Bank Ltd.’s shares fell the most in a year on Friday after the Indian lender reported first-quarter net income that was sharply below analysts’ expectations, driven by a surge in provisions for bad loans.
• POSCO Future M Co Ltd reported operating profit for the second quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.
• United Laboratories International’s shares drop in Hong Kong after the drug maker agreed to sell as many as 156 million shares at HK$14.16 apiece in a placement.
• Kingboard Laminates’ shares slump in Hong Kong after holder Kingboard Investments agreed to sell as many as 78.5 million shares at HK$10 apiece in a placement.
• GCL Technology shares surge as much as 15% in Hong Kong, the most since May 13, after the Hong Kong-based company announced a deal with CPIC Investment Management (HK) to explore tokenization of real-world assets.

In FX, the dollar slipped 0.2%, trimming this week’s rally after Fed Governor Waller said policymakers should cut rates by 25bps this month. The Swedish krona and Norwegian krone are leading gains against the greenback, rising 0.9% each. The yen dips slightly, as it remained under pressure ahead of an Upper House election in Japan on Sunday.

In rates, the 10-year Treasury yield slips 1bps to 4.44%; 2-year yield drops 1bp after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said late Thursday that policymakers should cut interest rates this month to support a labor market that is showing signs of weakness. He is scheduled to speak at 8am New York time in a Bloomberg TV interview.  Traders are pricing a total of around 43bps of Fed easing through year-end, compared with around 49bps a week ago. The 2s10s curve steepens by less than 1bp. Despite Waller’s comments, swap contracts for the Fed’s July 30 rate decision price in no chance of a rate cut, with a combined 44bp of easing priced in by year-end.

In commodities, WTI crude oil futures advance almost 1%, adding to Thursday’s gains. Spot gold rises $14 to around $3,353/oz. Bitcoin falls back below $119,000.

Looking at today’s calendar, the US economic data slate includes June housing starts (8:30am) and July preliminary University of Michigan sentiment (10am). Fed speaker slate includes only Waller, and Fed officials’ external communications blackout ahead of their July 30 decision starts Saturday. earnings releases include American Express and Charles Schwab.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini +0.0%
• Nasdaq 100 mini +0.1%
• Russell 2000 mini little changed
• Stoxx Europe 600 +0.5%
• DAX +0.4%
• CAC 40 +0.6%
• 10-year Treasury yield -1 basis point at 4.44%
• VIX -0.1 points at 16.45
• Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.2% at 1205.26
• euro +0.4% at $1.1639
• WTI crude +1.1% at $68.29/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Trump is set to open the US retirement market to crypto investments with Trump preparing an executive order to allow 401k plans to tap a broad pool of alternative assets, according to FT.
• Trump again warned Brazil to drop charges against Jair Bolsonaro, saying in an open letter addressed to the former leader he would be “watching closely.” President Lula da Silva said Brazil would not accept “blackmail” from the US and the country will respond to US tariffs on Aug. 1. BBG 
• Fed Chair Powell rebutted the Trump administrations accusations that he misled Congress over a $2.5bn refurbishment of the central bank’s HQ, saying it did not inform government planners of changes to the project because they were not “substantial” enough to warrant it. FT 
• The Fed’s Christopher Waller called for a quarter-point rate cut this month, saying the labor market is “on the edge” and upside risks to inflation are limited. Waller stated the Fed should not wait until the labor market hits trouble before cutting rates and delaying cuts runs the risk of needing more aggressive action later. Furthermore, he said a July rate cut could give the Fed space to hold rates for a few meetings and noted they should cut rates in July and then adjust policy meeting by meeting, as well as commented that data should determine the pace of rate cuts and there’s nothing wrong with taking out an insurance rate cut, just in case.
• White House said President Trump signed an executive order creating a new classification of non-career federal workers and signed four proclamations, granting two years of regulatory relief from Biden-era regulations impacting sectors vital to security. Furthermore, the proclamations cover coal plants, taconite iron ore processing facilities, and certain chemical manufacturers that produce chemicals related to semiconductors, medical device sterilisation, and national defence systems.
• China’s exports of rare-earth products jumped in June, pointing to a potential pickup in magnet supplies after government-imposed curbs that proved to be Beijing’s most powerful weapon in its trade war with the Trump administration. BBG 
• The ECB can delay its final rate cut until December without investors concluding that easing is over, a Bloomberg survey of economists showed. BBG 
• Meta is said to have hired two Apple AI experts, shortly after poaching their former boss. BBG 
• China trimmed its US Treasury holdings for a third straight month in May, amid escalating trade tensions with Washington and mounting concerns over a sweeping tax and spending bill. China’s holdings fell to US $756.3 bn vs US$757.2bn  in April, the lowest level since march 2009. SCMP 
• A slight easing in Japan’s consumer inflation is welcome news for the central bank, but stubbornly high food prices will be of concern for policymakers whose hands remain tied by tariffs. Japan’s national CPI came in at +3.3% in June (inline w/the Street and down from +3.5% in May), but core (ex-food/energy) ticked up to +3.4% (vs. the Street +3.3% and up from +3.3% in May). WSJ 
• The EU has reached an agreement on a new sanctions package against Russia, which includes a lower price cap for Moscow’s crude oil barrels, limited Russian bank’s access to funding, and a ban on using Nord Stream gas pipelines connecting Russia and Germany. FT, CNBC 

Trade/Tariffs

• China Commerce Minister Wang said China and US economic and trade relations have gone through storms and remain important to each other, while he added the US has adopted more unilateral, protectionist measures since 2018, provoking frictions and that decoupling is doomed to fail as it contradicts economic development. Wang stated that mutual benefit is the essence of US-China commercial ties, as well as noted that ups and downs have taught both sides that there are things they need from each other. Wang also commented that differences and frictions are inevitable but dialogue and consultation are the best way to fix problems, and the key is to respect each other’s core interests and major concerns. Furthermore, he said China still faces high US tariffs and that overall tariffs are in excess of 50%, while China wants to bring China-US commercial ties back to a state of healthy, sustainable development.
• Canada’s International Trade Minister said they are getting officials to talk to Chinese counterparts as soon as possible to work through trade challenges, while the official also commented that there is appetite from both sides to have conversations with Mercosur and there seems to be energy to get things done quickly with ASEAN countries.
• Canada said it reached a mutually satisfactory solution with New Zealand to resolve the CPTPP dairy TRQs dispute, while a dairy agreement with New Zealand will result in minor policy changes to Canada’s TRQ administration and does not amend Canada’s market access commitments.
• Brazil’s President Lula said regarding US tariffs that Brazil always has been open to dialogue, as well as stated that trying to interfere in the Brazilian justice is a serious attack on Brazilian sovereignty and that Trump’s letter about tariffs was unacceptable blackmail. Furthermore, he said the defence of Brazil’s sovereignty also applies to the operation of digital platforms in the country. In relevant news, US President Trump posted a letter to former Brazilian President Bolsonaro voicing sympathy and said he will be watching Brazil closely.
• Japanese Trade negotiator Akazawa says he discussed “various things” with US Treasury Secretary Bessent. Asked Bessent to vigorously continue discussions. Was friendly.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were predominantly higher following the positive handover from Wall St where the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 rose to fresh record highs with sentiment underpinned by better-than-expected data. ASX 200 outperformed its regional peers and climbed to a fresh all-time high as advances were led by the Mining, Materials and Resources sectors with the former helped by gains in BHP following its Q4 production update and with Novonix shares up around 20% on plans to boost US graphite production as the US sets 93.5% anti-dumping duties on Chinese graphite. Nikkei 225 failed to sustain a brief return above the 40,000 level and pared its opening gains amid cautiousness heading into the upper house election on Sunday with Japan facing political uncertainty should the ruling coalition fail to retain its majority in the House of Councillors. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were underpinned in tandem with the gains across most of the Asia-Pac region and as participants shrugged off reports that the US is setting a 93.5% anti-dumping duty on graphite from China and that China threatened to block the Panama Ports deal unless its shipping giant COSCO is part of it.

Top Asian News

• China’s Cyberspace Administration said China and the EU agreed to set up a working team to cooperate on bilateral cross-border flows of autodata.
• Japan’s PM Ishiba to hold press conference at 06:00BST on Monday following upper house elections.

European bourses began the day with gains after constructive APAC and US sessions, and have since extended, helped by strong quarterly reports, mostly from Scandi-listed companies. European sectors opened almost entirely in the green, and retain this bias. The only sector in the red is Healthcare, which has been dragged lower by GSK (-6%) after Blenrep failed to win FDA panel support. Energy tops the pile, lifted by Vestas (broker upgrade) and BP (sold LS Power).

Top European News

• Dutch Finance Minister Heine says the EU’s MFF proposal for just under EUR 2.0tln is “dead on arrival”.
• Morgan Stanley expects BoE to hold rates steady in September, revising previous forecast for a cut.
• BofA expects the BoE to cut rates twice this year, in August and November, vs prev. exp. August, September and November Expects the bank to deliver cut in February 2026, taking terminal rate to 3.5%
• ECB’s Nagel says financial markets speak their own language and are showing how Fed attacks affect them.

FX

• DXY is a touch softer but still up some 0.6% on the week and higher for a second week in a row. The drivers for the USD upside have been a combination of resilient US data, expectations that a tariff compromise will be reached between the US and global trading partners, inflation that will limit near-term Fed easing and the market pulling back from being overly short the dollar. DXY is back below its 50DMA and towards the bottom end of Thursday’s 98.33-95 range.
• EUR/USD is attempting to recoup some lost ground vs. the USD after hitting a MTD low on Thursday at 1.1555. Price action for EUR/USD this week has largely been at the whim of the USD. EUR/USD has made its way back onto a 1.16 handle and is eyeing Thursday’s best at 1.1642.
• JPY is flat vs. the USD as the ongoing rally in USD/JPY pauses for breath. Japanese inflation metrics overnight printed in-line and provided little traction for JPY with greater attention on this weekend’s upper house elections. USD/JPY has moved back onto a 148 handle and trades in a 148.30-88 range vs. the multi-month high printed on Wednesday at 149.18.
• GBP is firmer vs. the broadly weaker USD with incremental drivers from the UK light today. Focus in the UK this week has been on the data slight with hot inflation data on Wednesday and soft labour market data on Thursday underscoring the market narrative that, whilst the BoE is expected to keep easing policy in the coming months, they are unlikely to accelerate their current quarterly pace of rate cuts.
• Antipodeans are outperforming alongside the mostly positive risk appetite and recent rebound in commodity prices.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1498 vs exp. 7.1736 (Prev. 7.1461).

Fixed Income

• USTs are trading higher by a handful of ticks today and currently within a 110-19 to 110-24 range and trading towards the peak from Thursday at 110-25. Focus has been on commentary from the influential Fed Governor Waller; he continued to bolster his calls for a 25bps cut in July; he is set to talk later today also. Elsewhere, on trade updates, the White House said the EU continues to be very eager in trade negotiations. Elsewhere, on US/China relations, US is set to impose a 93.5% tariff on graphite used for battery material from China. Attention now turns to US Housing Starts/Building Permits and UoM Prelim data.
• Bunds have traded with a downward bias throughout the morning, and are the underperformer today. Nothing fundamentally driving the pressure today, but perhaps just a function of the relatively positive risk tone. Currently trading towards the bottom end of a 129.53 to 129.82 range. Further pressure may see a dip below 129.50 and then towards Thursday’s low at 129.38. Newsflow and data docket has been relatively light so far; some focus on German Producer Prices, whereby the Y/Y figure printed in-line with expectations whilst the M/M component ticked higher from the prior and came in a touch above expectations.
• Gilts are in the red, following EGBs, albeit to a lesser extent. Like above, downside today stems from the positive risk tone rather than any specific newsflow driven action. Trading in a tight 91.15 to 91.31 range, and currently just off the day’s trough. Today’s trough is a single tick above Thursday’s low, which also marks the WTD base.

Commodities

• Crude rallied from the early European morning, got as high as USD 68.53/bbl and USD 70.40/bbl for WTI and Brent. Newsflow at the time was fairly light, price action largely a continuation of Thursday’s upside (spurred by further drone attacks on refineries in the Middle East) and following the general risk tone, which remains underpinned after Thursday’s very strong US session. Newsflow this morning has been focussed on the latest EU sanctions package. A package which, as expected, includes a new lower Russian oil price cap. The cap will now by dynamic, set USD 15/bbl below market rates (prev. set at USD 60.0/bbl) and begin in the USD 45-50/bbl range as a starting point.
• Most recently, the complex has taken another leg higher and is approaching earlier peaks, no fresh fundamental driver behind the move.
• Gold is bid after climbing gradually through the latter-half of Thursday’s session despite the strong risk tone. Upside that was potentially driven by the softer yield environment, which in turn was possibly driven by Import Price data and remarks from former Fed official Warsh. The metal then picked up a little further overnight to a USD 3350.44/oz peak. Upside that comes in contrast to the mostly firmer APAC risk tone, with China largely shrugging off the latest unfavourable tariff updates.
• 3M LME Copper is following the risk tone, posting notable gains pretty much across the board thus far. This has taken it to a USD 9.75k peak and to a fresh high for the week.
• Asian refiners are reportedly increasing purchases of Kazakh CPC crude for August loadings amid lower European demand pressuring prices, according to Reuters citing traders.

Geopolitics

• Qatar, Egypt, and the US presented Israel and Hamas with an updated Gaza ceasefire and hostage deal proposal on Wednesday, according to Axios.
• Iran is moving to rearm its militia allies and is sending missiles to Hezbollah, while it seeks to smuggle weapons from Iraq to Syria and is moving quickly to replenish Houthi weapons stockpiles after US-Israeli strikes, according to WSJ.
• French, German and UK Foreign Ministers and the EU high representative held a call with the Iranian Foreign Minister with an aim to relaunch talks on Iran’s nuclear programme, while E3 ministers told Iran’s Foreign Minister to return to the diplomatic pathway immediately to reach a verifiable and lasting nuclear accord, as well as stressed again their determination to reimpose UN sanctions on Iran if no concrete progress is made towards a nuclear accord by the end of summer.
• EU Foreign Representative Kallas says the EU has just approved one of its strongest sanction packages against Russia to date. Europe will continue to increase pressure on Russia until the war concludes. Includes a lower Russian oil price cap.
• Iranian Foreign Minister says any new round of negotiations will only be possible if the other side expresses its readiness for a fair and balanced nuclear agreement, according to Sky News Arabia.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky says the negotiation process with Russia requires “more momentum”, assigned Umerov to the National Security Council.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30 am: Jun Housing Starts, est. 1300k, prior 1256k
• 8:30 am: Jun P Building Permits, est. 1387k, prior 1394k
• 10:00 am: Jul P U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 61.5, prior 60.7

Central Banks (All Times ET):

• 8:00 am: Fed’s Waller on Bloomberg TV

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Markets have put in a decent performance over the last 24 hours, with the S&P 500 (+0.54%) and the NASDAQ (+0.74%) both reaching fresh all-time highs with the global rally mostly continuing this morning. The advance was driven by another batch of positive US data, including higher-than-expected retail sales, and then a 5th consecutive weekly decline in initial jobless claims. So that reassured investors that the US consumer was still resilient, and that the mid-Q2 jump in jobless claims was a blip rather than a permanent trend. With the stronger data and a continued rise in market inflation pricing, investors dialed down the amount of Fed rate cuts expected this year to 43bps, the lowest this has been since February. So collectively there is a growing sense of the US economy continuing to run hot, despite there being less than two weeks now until the August 1 tariff deadline. Overnight Fed Governor Waller, regarded as a potential candidate to succeed Powell, has expressed his preference for a 25bps reduction at the forthcoming late July meeting, citing escalating risks to the economy and the strong possibility that tariff-induced inflation will not lead to a sustained increase in price pressures. Furthermore, Waller cautioned that he has observed signs of strain in the labor market, reinforcing the argument for lower interest rates. He’ll likely largely be on his own for July which is why there’s only been a couple of basis point change in December pricing overnight alongside a 1.5 to 2bps UST rally across the curve. So notable comments but not enough at the moment to get close to swaying the committee, especially given the other Fed speak yesterday that we outline later.

Looking to the more immediate future, this Sunday will see the Upper House elections in Japan. Polls close at 8pm Tokyo time (12pm LDN) and final results are expected by the evening London time. Recent polls suggest that the ruling LDP-Komeito coalition may lose its Upper House majority with questions whether Prime Minister Ishiba would resign as a result. Rising prices have been a major policy issue for voters and opposition parties have called for more fiscal support, notably via consumption tax cuts. Prospects of looser fiscal policy have added to the recent rise in JGB yields so the election will influence whether this sell-off has further to run. You can see more from our Japan economist, including on the BoJ implications, here), while our FX strategists have noted the potentially binary implications of the election for the yen (see here).

Overnight Japanese core CPI increased by +3.3% year-on-year in June (compared to +3.4% anticipated). This rise was less than the +3.7% increase in May, primarily due to the resumption of gasoline subsidies. Core core CPI excluding fresh food and energy was up by 3.4% (from 3.3%) and a tenth above expectations. In fact the core CPI actually rose by 3.344%, just 0.006% short of consensus. So net net they are stronger numbers than initially meet the eye. See our economists’ review of them here. 10 and 30yr JGBs are rallying by -3.5bps and -5bps respectively though.

Back to yesterday and that positive US data, headline retail sales rose +0.6% in June (vs. +0.1% expected), bouncing back after the previous two months of declines, while retail control grew +0.5% (+0.3% expected). Meanwhile, initial jobless claims fell to a three-month low of 221k in the week ending July 12 (vs. 233k expected). In turn, that took the 4-week average for claims down to a two-month low of 229.5k, which added to the sense that this was a durable trend.

This optimism provided a fresh boost to risk assets, with equities posting fresh gains on both sides of the Atlantic. In the US, the S&P 500 (+0.54%) was led higher by cyclical sectors, including banks (+1.40%), information technology (+0.88%) and industrials (+0.87%). The NASDAQ was up +0.74%, whilst the Magnificent 7 (+0.30%) posted a 7th consecutive advance for the first time in over a year. Meanwhile in Europe, there were even stronger gains, because the main indices had closed shortly before Trump’s denial that he was going to fire Fed Chair Powell, meaning they hadn’t recovered from the brief selloff yesterday. So that meant the STOXX 600 (+0.96%) ended a run of 4 consecutive declines, with a particular outperformance for the German DAX (+1.51%).

Over on the rates side, US Treasuries saw some further unwind of Wednesday’s moves when speculation mounted about Powell’s firing. So we got the reverse trend of a flatter yield curve, a higher dollar and higher equities, which was consistent with growing confidence about Powell’s position. Admittedly, Trump issued a fresh call for lower rates, posting “Too Late:” Great numbers just out. LOWER THE RATE!!!” But that was consistent with his remarks for several weeks, and wasn’t interpreted as a fresh challenge to Powell’s position.

That curve flattening yesterday also came as investors dialled back the likelihood of rapid rate cuts, as the strong data was interpreted in a hawkish light. So the probability of a cut by September fell to 54%, down from 58% the previous day, although we’re back to around 58% post Wallet in thinner Asian markets. At the US close the amount of cuts priced by December came down -3.2bps on the day to 43bps, its lowest since February 20 although its edged back up a basis point post Waller

The problem for the Fed contracts are that there are growing concerns about inflation, not least amid questions over how much of the upside in retail sales was due to price increases versus volume growth. In fact, the 2yr US inflation swap (+4.2bps) closed above 3% for the first time since March 2023, at 3.02%. And that concern was extending to longer horizons too, with the 5yr inflation swap (+3.0bps) also at its highest since March 2023, right before the regional banking crisis kicked off with SVB’s collapse. Matters also weren’t helped by higher oil prices, with WTI up +1.75% yesterday to $67.54/bbl.

Back in Europe, the economic data painted a less robust picture, with UK unemployment up to 4.7% (vs. 4.6% expected) in the three months to May, marking its highest level since June 2021, back when the economy was still recovering from the pandemic. However, gilts still underperformed and investors dialled back the likelihood of BoE rate cuts, as there were pretty strong revisions to the previous month. So even though the headlines were negative, the employment picture actually looked a bit more solid than previously thought. Notably, the -109k decline in payrolled employees in May was revised down to only -25k, so a much less severe decline than thought, even if it was followed up with another -41k fall in June (vs. -35k expected). So that meant gilt yields moved up across the curve, with the 2yr yield up +5.1bps, and the 10yr yield up +1.5bps. That was a contrast with the rest of Europe, where yields on 10yr bunds (-1.3bps) fell back, alongside those on BTPs (-0.8bps).

In Asia markets are generally higher but the Nikkei (-0.31%) and the KOSPI (-0.43%) have both retraced earlier gains, while the Hang Seng (+0.63%), the CSI (+0.51%), and the Shanghai Composite (+0.34%) are higher. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 stands out as the top performer, rising (+1.33%) to a record high following disappointing labour market data released earlier this week, which has intensified expectations that the RBA will need to further reduce interest rates in the upcoming months after a surprising hold in July. US equity futures are up just over a tenth of a percent.

To the day ahead now, and data releases include US housing starts and building permits for June, along with the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for July. Otherwise, earnings releases include American Express and Charles Schwab.

Shares of Chevron and Hess climbed in premarket trading in New York after the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) in Paris rejected Exxon Mobil’s attempt to block Chevron’s $53 billion acquisition of Hess. 

An arbitration panel from the ICC dismissed Exxon’s claim that it had the right to preempt the Chevron-Hess deal due to its existing stake in Guyana’s Stabroek oil block, according to The Wall Street Journal. The ruling resolves the dispute between the two oil giants that control one of the world’s top offshore projects. 

Exxon threw a wrench into Chevron’s takeover of Hess (first announced in October 2023), claiming a right to preempt the deal over Hess’s 30% stake in the Stabroek block. Chevron argued that the right of first refusal didn’t apply to a corporate acquisition.

Guyana’s Stabroek oil block is one of the world’s top offshore oil discoveries in recent decades. Exxon operates the block with a 45% stake, alongside Hess with a 30% stake, and China’s Cnooc with a 25% stake. The block is producing 650,000 barrels of oil per day, with estimates suggesting that oil companies can pump upwards of 1.2 million barrels per day by 2027. 

WSJ noted, “The dispute hinged on the interpretation of several lines in a joint operating agreement signed more than a decade ago that governs the consortium. Hess had entered the partnership in 2014 when it acquired its stake from Shell. Some joint operating agreements allow existing partners to participate in ownership changes and preempt offers for ownership stakes with an offer of their own.”

With the ICC siding in its favor, Chevron can now move forward with the Hess acquisition. This was a must-win arbitration as the oil/gas giant undertakes a major restructuring to cut costs. 

Additional commentary from WSJ:

Investors and analysts had said Chevron’s oil-and-gas portfolio needed a boost for it to have sufficient production growth after 2030. If the Hess deal had broken down, it would have had to seek another large acquisition target, they said.

For Exxon, the loss at arbitration does little to dent the company’s turnaround coming out of the pandemic.

In the markets, Chevron shares rose 3% in premarket trading, while Hess jumped 7%. Shares of both companies have been holding in a flag pattern since peaking in 2022-23. 

.   .   . 

Donald Trump sent notorious sex-trafficker Jeffrey Epstein a bawdy birthday letter with a drawing of a naked woman, an acknowledgement that the two “have certain things in common,” and a wish for “every day [to] be another wonderful secret,” the Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday evening, citing “documents” that its reporters had reviewed.

Later on Thursday evening, Trump announced that he’d directed Attorney General Pam Bondi to pursue the release of grand jury testimony from Epstein’s prosecution, in response to the “ridiculous amount of publicity” the case is receiving. 

Trump denies he had anything to do with the letter. “This is not me. This is a fake thing. It’s a fake Wall Street Journal story,” Trump told the Journal in a Tuesday-evening interview. “I never wrote a picture in my life. I don’t draw pictures of women. ​​​It’s not my language. It’s not my words.” He vowed to take the paper to court if it published the story: “I’m gonna sue The Wall Street Journal just like I sued everyone else.”

Even if the letter is authentic, it’s far from conclusive that Trump’s imagery and celebration of “secrets” referred to illegal conduct with underage females. Nonetheless, the story compounds the sustained controversy over the president’s declarations that the FBI’s “Epstein files” are a Democrat hoax, and his coalition-splitting characterization that conservatives who are pressing for the release of more Epstein documents are “weaklings” who “haven’t learned their lesson.”  

The Journal said it “reviewed” the letter, but did not publish an image of it. According to the report, the letter was one of many contained in a leather-bound book compiled in 2003 by since-convicted sex-trafficker Ghislaine Maxwell. The book was a gift to celebrate Jeffrey Epstein’s 50th birthday. Others who submitted letters include billionaire Leslie Wexner and attorney Alan Dershowitz.

Bawdiness was a recurring but not necessarily universal theme among the many letters in the book. The letter attributed to Trump features the outline of a nude woman drawn with heavy marker, with arcs depicting breasts and a squiggly “Donald” signature positioned to illustrate the woman’s pubic hair. Within that frame of the female figure, the letter features typewritten text, creatively written in the fashion of an audio or video script: 

“Voice Over: There must be more to life than having everything.”

Donald: Yes, there is, but I won’t tell you what it is.

Jeffrey: Nor will I, since I also know what it is. 

Donald: We have certain things in common, Jeffrey. 

Jeffrey: Yes, we do, come to think of it. 

Donald: Enigmas never age, have you noticed that? 

Jeffrey: As a matter of fact, it was clear to me the last time I saw you. 

Donald: A pal is a wonderful thing. Happy Birthday — and may every day be another wonderful secret.

In a 2002 interview with New York magazine, Trump acknowledged Epstein’s affinity for younger women: “I’ve known Jeff for 15 years. Terrific guy. He’s a lot of fun to be with. It is even said that he likes beautiful women as much as I do, and many of them are on the younger side. No doubt about it—Jeffrey enjoys his social life.”

After the story was published, Trump lashed out via Truth Social, calling the Journal a “disgusting and filthy rag” for publishing a “false, malicious and defamatory” story. Trump wrote that he’d contacted Journal owner Rubert Murdoch, who “stated that he would take care of it but, obviously, did not have the power to do so.” Trump also argued that, if there were any truth to suggestions he was guilty of criminal sexual conduct facilitated by Epstein, “Radical Left Lunatics” like Hillary Clinton, former CIA director John Brennan and former FBI director James Comey wouldn’t have sat on it through three elections.  

Vice President JD Vance issued his own attack on the Journal, noting that the letter doesn’t sound like Trump: 

“Forgive my language but this story is complete and utter bullshit. The WSJ should be ashamed for publishing it. Where is this letter? Would you be shocked to learn they never showed it to us before publishing it? Does anyone honestly believe this sounds like Donald Trump?” 

Also following the Journal’s posting of the story, Trump announced he had directed Bondi to “produce any and all pertinent grand jury testimony” related to the Epstein case, while reiterating that people demanding information about who had indulged in Epstein’s stable of underage girls were falling for a “SCAM perpetuated by the Democrats.” 

President Trump—we are ready to move the court tomorrow to unseal the grand jury transcripts. pic.twitter.com/hOXzdTcYYB

— Attorney General Pamela Bondi (@AGPamBondi) July 18, 2025

Dershowitz’s 2003 birthday letter also used a creative approach, centered on a mockup of a “Vanity Unfair” magazine cover with the headline “Who was Jack the Ripper? Was it Jeffrey Epstein?” Dershowitz jokingly wrote that he’d persuaded the publisher to switch the focus of an article from Epstein to Bill Clinton. This week, told the Journal “It’s been a long time and I don’t recall the content of what I may have written.” Dershowitz has denied allegations he cavorted with Epstein-furnished underage partners, and has urged the release of documents to prove his innocence.

According to Trump, his friendship with Epstein ended sometime around 2004, after mutual acrimony arose from a bidding war between the two for a Palm Beach property — a war Trump won. In 2008, Epstein pleaded guilty to state charges of procuring a minor for prostitution, but was controversially allowed to enter a non-prosecution agreement that spared him and others from federal charges.  After Epstein’s far more consequential arrest in 2019, Trump recalled, “I knew him like everybody in Palm Beach knew him. I was not a fan of his, that I can tell you.”

Brent crude futures rose earlier after the European Union approved its 18th round of sanctions against Russia over the war in Ukraine. However, with a multi-year track record of Western sanctions—and repeated predictions by their leaders that Moscow would collapse due to lost oil revenue—the question now is: What makes this package so different this time around? 

EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas revealed the new sanctions package on Russia in a post on X, describing it as “one of the strongest sanctions packages against Russia to date.” 

According to Reuters, the new sanctions package will lower the G7’s price cap for purchasing Russian crude oil to $47.60 per barrel. The current cap is $60, making this a significant discount. Bloomberg reported that the new cap will range between $45 and $50, and will be automatically revised twice a year based on market prices. 

The sanctions package didn’t stop with a revision to the crude oil price cap—in fact, it’s broader, targeting everything from Russia’s shadow tanker fleet to the Nord Stream pipeline to refineries in India. 

Here are the key highlights from the new sanctions package, as outlined in a series of posts by Kaja Kallas on X: 

• We’re cutting the Kremlin’s war budget further, going after 105 more shadow fleet ships, their enablers, and limiting Russian banks’ access to funding. 

• Nord Stream pipelines will be banned.

• A lower oil price cap.

• We are putting more pressure on Russia’s military industry, Chinese banks that enables sanctions evasion, and blocking tech exports used in drones.

• For the first time, we’re designating a flag registry and the biggest Rosneft refinery in India.

The 18th round of sanctions comes as Russia has continued to sell most of its crude oil and petroleum products at prices above the previous cap, relying on a vast shadow fleet of tankers operating worldwide. Brussels has tried 17 times to bring Moscow to its knees—yet Europeans insist this time will be different...

In markets, Brent crude rose modestly on the news, climbing above the $70-per-barrel mark. 

Separately, President Trump has threatened Russia with secondary tariffs of up to 100% on countries that continue trading with Moscow, aiming to force President Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table and end Russia’s grinding three-year invasion of Ukraine.