Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

US Africa Command has announced that it launched two separate airstrikes in Somalia on Sunday, as the Trump administration is continuing to bomb the country at a record pace, an air war that is receiving virtually no coverage in US media.

AFRICOM said that the strikes targeted the ISIS affiliate in Somalia’s northeastern Puntland region, to the southeast of the port city of Bossaso. The command offered no further details, as it has stopped sharing estimates of casualties or assessments of potential civilian harm.

AFRICOM confirmed to Antiwar.com in an email that the latest attack marked the 51st US airstrike in Somalia of the year, putting the Trump administration on track to easily break the annual record, which President Trump set at 63 in 2019. Antiwar.com is also seeking details on casualties from AFRICOM, but so far hasn’t received a figure.

The US has been backing local Puntland forces against ISIS in battles in the Cal Miskaad mountains in Puntland’s Bari region. Puntland Counter-Terrorism Operations announced on Sunday — the day the US launched two airstrikes — that it was conducting a “clearance operation” against ISIS remnants in the mountains and said the area being targeted was “last used by terrorists as a hideout with their foreign women and children.”

Puntland’s forces announced a new military operation on June 30 against ISIS-affiliated militants, and since then, the US has launched at least four airstrikes in the area. The ISIS affiliate in Somalia started in 2015 as an offshoot of al-Shabaab, a group the US has also been bombing in southern and central Somalia.

In the war against al-Shabaab, the US is backing the Mogadishu-based Federal Government, which controls little territory inside Somalia’s internationally recognized borders. Somali media reported on Tuesday that government forces killed 15 al-Shabaab fighters in the central Hiraan region, an operation that was supported by “international partners,” likely a reference to US AFRICOM.

Al-Shabaab has been making significant gains against the government and reportedly captured a town in the Hiraan region on Monday. Fighting has also been ongoing in the southern Jubaland region, where the US carried out multiple airstrikes from June 27 to June 30 to support a battle that the government claimed killed 50 al-Shabaab fighters.

Al-Shabaab’s offensive has been successful enough that US officials recently discussed the possibility of Mogadishu falling to the militant group.

The New York Times reported on April 10 that State Department officials suggested closing down the US embassy in Mogadishu and evacuating most US personnel due to the threat. But other officials, including Sebastian Gorka, the top counterterrorism official on the National Security Council, called for the US to escalate in Somalia and double down on its policy of propping up the government, and they appear to have won the internal debate.

Hawks who favor continued intervention in Somalia portray al-Shabaab as a major threat to the US due to its size and al-Qaeda affiliation, but it’s widely believed the group does not have ambitions outside of Somalia.

Al-Shabaab was born out of a US-backed Ethiopian invasion in 2006 that toppled the Islamic Courts Union, a coalition of Muslim groups that briefly held power in Mogadishu after ousting CIA-backed warlords. Al-Shabaab was the radical offshoot of the Islamic Courts Union. The group’s first recorded attack was in 2007, and it wasn’t until 2012 that al-Shabaab pledged loyalty to al-Qaeda.

AI and Crypto Czar David Sacks warned Tuesday that preventing U.S. semiconductor companies from exporting high-powered chips to allies will drive nations into the arms of China.

“If we don’t compete across the world, then we will hand the market to China,” Sacks told Bloomberg News ahead of President Donald Trump’s announcement of $92 billion in investments across Pennsylvania. “One of the reasons that the president went to the Gulf States on that trip is to encourage business relations between the U.S. and the Gulf state. He signed massive investment deals. One of the deals that we signed was this new exploration partnership where we want to create a pathway for the Gulf states like UAE, to buy American technology, to buy American ships, and to create data centers on the American tech stack.”

In May, President Donald Trump secured over $2 trillion in artificial intelligence and tech deals during his Middle East tour, including a landmark $1.4 trillion UAE commitment to U.S. AI infrastructure and a $600 billion Saudi investment. The agreements, which include Nvidia chip sales and a massive Abu Dhabi AI campus.

Sacks pushed back on the notion that China’s technological advancements are years away, citing reports that Chinese company Huawei is already attempting to sell and export wireless chips. “A lot of people said, well, China won’t be ready to sell for four years. But now we see that there are reports that Huawei is out there trying to sell and export the wireless chip,” the Trump official said.

Sacks said the way to think about the global tech market is as a “zero-sum game,” where market share will either belong to American companies, such as Nvidia, or to Chinese firms like Huawei. The Trump official proposed a straightforward metric for measuring success: market share. “If five years from now, we look across the world and we see that Nvidia or other American companies have an 80% market share, it means that we won the AI race,” Sacks explained. However, if Huawei commands an 80% market share in five years, it would signal a significant loss for the U.S. in the AI race.

Addressing concerns about the security of exporting advanced technologies, Sacks said that the chips in question are not small, easily concealed components but “really mainframe computers” that are eight feet tall and extremely heavy. “It’s very easy to send inspectors into datacenters and count the server racks to make sure that they’re where they’re supposed to be,” Sacks said, dismissing security concerns as manageable. “I understand that there are some security concerns, but I think they’re very easily handled.”

“What we need to be doing is making sure that we win the AI race globally by making American technology the global standard and not letting a Huawei belt and road,” he added.

Trump signed an executive order in April to expand domestic coal production and utilization, targeting the energy needs of the rapidly growing artificial intelligence industry and its power-hungry data centers. The directive seeks to revitalize the declining U.S. coal sector, which has been hit hard by market shifts and environmental regulations.

The order introduces incentives and executive actions to increase coal-fired power generation, including potential Energy Department mandates to keep coal plants operational, even if they are closed or scheduled for closure.

“We’re bringing back an industry that was abandoned,” Trump said at the signing ceremony, joined by coal workers. “With us today are some of the amazing workers who will benefit from these policies.”

The president added, “All those plants that have been closed are going to be opened. If they’re modern enough, or they’ll be ripped down and brand-new ones will be built.”

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Foreign buyers purchased $56 billion worth of existing homes in the United States between April 2024 and March 2025, up by 33.2 percent from the previous 12 months, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) said in a July 14 statement.

In terms of the number of properties, they bought 78,100 units, a 44 percent increase from the prior year. This was also the first annual increase since 2017. The average purchase price was $494,400, a “record high,” NAR said.

“International interest in buying U.S. real estate increased following the global economic recovery from several years of pandemic-related disruptions,” NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun said in a statement.

“However, elevated home prices and interest rates continue to dampen overall potential sales activity and remain well below pre-pandemic levels.”

China was the top buyer nation of U.S. existing homes, making up 15 percent of all foreign purchases. Canada was a close second at 14 percent, followed by Mexico at 8 percent, India at 6 percent, and the United Kingdom at 4 percent.

The top housing market for international buyers was Florida, which accounted for 21 percent of all such deals. This was followed by California (15 percent), Texas (10 percent), New York (7 percent), and Arizona (5 percent).

“To some degree, due to stubbornly high mortgage rates, a greater share of international home buyers paid cash—47 percent compared to 28 percent among all buyers—and they were more likely to purchase homes priced in the upper end of the market,” Yun said.

“Foreign buyers are drawn to investing in American real estate, in part, by our country’s strong protection of private property rights.”

Among all foreign purchases, 56 percent were made by foreigners who live in the United States as recent immigrants or who have visas allowing them to reside in the country.

Interest in U.S. home purchases by Canadians dropped this year amid trade tensions, according to a July 4 statement from real estate brokerage Redfin.

The number of Canadian users on the Redfin platform searching for homes in the United States decreased by 26.4 percent from a year earlier in May.

In February, President Donald Trump imposed a 25 percent tariff on imports from Canada, citing the “extraordinary threat posed by illegal aliens and drugs, including deadly fentanyl,” according to a Feb. 1 White House fact sheet. The tariffs would remain in effect “until the crisis is alleviated,” it said.

Trump also recently announced bumping up the tariffs on Canadian imports to 35 percent.

Canadians searching for American homes started “declining significantly” from February, Redfin said.

“Normally I work with about five Canadian buyers each spring, mostly older folks looking for a second home. This year, there were none,” Heather Mahmood-Corley, a Redfin Premier agent in Phoenix, said in a statement.

“People from Canada are retreating from owning real estate in the U.S. because of political tensions; some of them are worried it will no longer be practical to travel back and forth between the two countries, and some don’t want their money tied up in the U.S.”

International buyers purchasing residential properties in the United States can have both positive and negative effects. For one, it brings in capital and can stimulate economic growth. Some areas would benefit from foreigners buying property, as it could push up property values.

On the other hand, there may not be significant changes in prices, while foreign purchases create financial challenges for local residents seeking affordable housing.

Prospective buyers are already facing difficulties in finding an affordable home.

For instance, the average sales price of homes sold in the United States in the first quarter was $503,800, up from $417,400 in the first quarter of 2021, according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

Similarly, the average weekly rate of a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has consistently remained above the 6 percent level since mid-September 2022.

Both of these factors make purchasing a home an expensive option for many households.

There is gruesome evidence emerging of mass atrocities in the southern Syrian province of Suwayda, where government soldiers under the Sharaa/Jolani regime have been conducing sectarian attacks on Druze and Christians, while seeking to get the etho-religions Druze community to lay down their weapons.

New disturbing images emerging Wednesday show dozens of dead civilians strewn about the floor at the National Hospital of Suwayda. The images seem authentic and verified, as Syria expert Joshua Landis of the University of Oklahoma has described that a regime soldier in the aftermath filmed the results of the massacre while proclaiming “God is Great” and that there has been ‘victory’ over the Druze there.

Massacre of Druze in #Syria at the National Hospital of Suwayda.

In the first video, a Druze nurse is pleading for help as regime soldiers are about to overrun the hospital.

In the second video, a regime soldier films the results of the capture and proclaims that “God is… pic.twitter.com/ibLzinnhiU

— Joshua Landis (@joshua_landis) July 16, 2025

Russia’s RT News has also picked up on the footage, captioning the “HORRIFIC images reportedly out of Suweida hospital in South Syria shows staff MASSACRED” for “Suspected of being Druze” — as the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) describes.

Exact number of dead and wounded are unknown at this early point, but the hospital was under siege by the government forces of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). London-based SOHR writes:

SOHR sources denied a statement issued by the Information and Communication Department of the Ministry of Defence, which accused “outlaw groups of taking the national hospital in Al-Suwaidaa as a starting point to launch their operations against the army and internal security forces.

SOHR warns of the continued siege of Al-Suwaidaa National hospital and targeting or storming it under flimsy pretexts.

Reliable SOHR sources confirmed that there are medical staff and patients only inside the national hospital in Al-Suwaidaa, without the presence of any armed manifestations.

The third floor of the hospital was also bombed by the Ministry of Defence forces, which besieged the hospital from all sides, putting it out of service. The hospital suffers from a blockade that prevents medical supplies from reaching it, further aggravating the situation.

It appears everyone in the hospital has been massacred. Sick and wounded patients were reportedly murdered in cold blood in their hospital beads.

Syrian government jihadists have massacred the entire Sweida National Hospital. Druze and Christian patients, doctors, nurses, women, children, and everyone taking shelter inside.

I’m speechless. This is genocide.

pic.twitter.com/n8r1sDyohU

— Dr. Maalouf ‏ (@realMaalouf) July 16, 2025

HTS has just taken off the US-designated terrorism list earlier this month, after Trump had posed with its leader Sharaa (Jolani, who had earlier been a member of ISIS) while visiting Riyadh, expressing hope that he’ll make for a good post-Assad ruler.

These US-backed jihadist thugs have also been attacking more churches in Syria’s south…

Syrian regime terrorists attacked Mar Mkhayel Church in Suwaida and set it on fire. Just weeks ago, they bombed another church and killed dozens. No one is safe in this new “free” Syria pic.twitter.com/m67NZWTqJZ

— Hadi (@HadiNasrallah) July 15, 2025

Recall that Trump had gone so far as to praise al-Sharaa as a “young, attractive guy” who has a “real shot at doing a good job”. There was no mention at the time of protecting some of the world’s most ancient churches and Syria’s sizeable Christian community.

The fruit of that ‘good job’ thus far has been a genocidal campaign launched against Alawites near Latakia, Druze in the south – as is happening currently, as well as attacks on churches, including last month’s suicide bombing of St. Elias Orthodox Church in Damascus, which left at least 25 people – including children – dead. A group affiliated with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham actually took responsibility. 

Authored by Rachel Ann T. Melegrito via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

That jolt you feel from your morning coffee isn’t just hitting your brain—it’s reaching deep into your cells and flipping biological switches that could help you age more slowly.

Recent research suggests caffeine acts like a personal trainer for our cells, stressing them just enough to activate the same longevity pathways triggered by hitting the gym or cutting calories.

“In a sense, a bit of stress is beneficial,” John-Patrick Alao, a postdoctoral research scientist and the lead author of the study, told The Epoch Times.

The Cellular Machinery Behind Longevity

The study, published in Microbial Cell, discovered that caffeine induces a stress-like response in cells, activating a longevity pathway called AMP-activated protein kinase (AMPK).

AMPK functions like a cellular fuel gauge. When energy runs low or during times of stress, AMPK activates, forcing cells to conserve resources, repair damage, and clean up faulty components by recycling parts of themselves.

In biology, too much stress harms cells, but small amounts can actually help them adapt and repair, preventing damage from piling up. Over time, this helps tissues stay healthier, which supports a longer lifespan.

“Our research, at least in terms of caffeine, suggests that AMPK gets turned on because caffeine is exerting some sort of stress on the cells,” Alao said.

Alao noted that the little stress exerted by caffeine on yeast cells switches on protective genes and keeps cells in repair mode, preventing damage from building up and extending their lifespan. He likened it to having a mechanic with you at all times to catch problems early.

“Caffeine’s natural activation of this pathway suggests it could be a valuable nutritional tool… Something as common as your morning coffee could eventually play a role in how we design diets or treatments to improve long-term health and potentially support cancer therapies,” said Dr. Thomas M. Holland, a physician scientist and assistant professor at the Rush Institute for Healthy Aging, who isn’t part of the study.

The researchers used fission yeast cells for their experiments. While the findings cannot be directly applied to humans, yeast have similar cellular pathways that work similarly to human cells.

Holland noted that while the study used yeast and didn’t provide specific intake recommendations for humans, other research supports moderate caffeine consumption.

Potential Risks of Caffeine-Induced Stress

While caffeine’s mild stress on cells helps trigger processes tied to a longer lifespan—like making them divide earlier and at smaller sizes—this same response can also make cells more vulnerable to DNA damage because it gives them less time to catch and fix problems before multiplying, allowing damage to slip through more easily.

This poses particular risks for people with genetic conditions such as ataxia telangiectasia (ATM), who have difficulty repairing DNA damage.

“If you have ATM mutations, caffeine is probably not good for you,“ Alao said. ”But if you are healthy and you don’t have these mutations, then it is because you are turning on the stress… and your DNA repair machinery is then being turned on.”

However, Alao noted that significant questions remain about how caffeine’s effects translate from yeast cells to humans. In people, AMPK is more complex, with different forms found in different tissues like the heart and skeletal muscle.

Alao said that the AMPK system, while protective in healthy cells, may also help cancer cells survive under metabolic stress.

How Much Caffeine Is Best for Longevity?

Multiple large-scale studies have linked coffee consumption to longer, healthier lives. A recent study of nearly 50,000 women over 30 years found that those who drank about 315 milligrams of caffeine daily—roughly one and a half large cups of coffee—were more likely to age healthily, free from major chronic diseases.

Another study published in The Journal of Nutrition found that people who drink one to three cups of coffee daily have a 15 percent lower risk of death compared to noncoffee drinkers. The study also showed that coffee’s health benefits diminish when it is paired with sugar and saturated fats, such as those in many dairy-based creamers.

“Typically around 200 to 400 milligrams per day, or roughly two to four cups of coffee, [have been shown in studies to be] both safe and potentially beneficial for most adults,” Holland said.

Holland emphasized that caffeine is most beneficial when included as part of a balanced lifestyle—particularly one that combines a mostly plant-based diet and regular physical activity. He noted that natural sources of caffeine, such as coffee and tea, also provide polyphenols and antioxidants, which may help reduce inflammation, improve metabolism, and lower oxidative stress—factors linked to reduced cancer risk.

Like Holland, Melissa Mitri, a registered dietitian and nutrition writer, recommends people stay away from supplements and energy drinks. “Some energy drinks and supplements contain a more concentrated form of caffeine, such as caffeine anhydrous, which can provide a significantly larger and more potent dose of caffeine than what is found in a cup of coffee.”

Mitri also noted that while more research is needed, a moderate amount of caffeine may help protect healthy cells during cancer treatment by reducing the potential damage caused by therapies like chemotherapy.

“Caffeine turns on AMPK, and AMPK is a really important target because it gets turned on by calorie restriction and exercise, and we know that calorie restriction and exercise are proven to extend lifespan,” Alao said.

Other Longevity Solutions

Caffeine isn’t the only compound linked to a longer lifespan through these cellular pathways. Other substances and diets are already known to target the same longevity-enhancing systems.

Rapamycin, for example, directly inhibits Target of Rapamycin Complex 1 (TORC1), a protein complex that helps control how cells grow and respond to nutrients, slowing down the cell’s growth machinery.

Metformin, a widely used diabetes drug that improves insulin sensitivity, doesn’t act directly on TORC1 but instead lowers the cell’s energy state, which in turn activates AMPK.

Chronic overnutrition—particularly diets high in sugar, refined starches, and ultra-processed foods—deactivates AMPK, activating a pathway called TORC1, which promotes growth and accelerates aging.

“If you eat a lot of sugar, a high-fat Western diet, the TOR [Target of Rapamycin] is always on. And this leads to aging,” Alao said.

In contrast, dietary restrictions like low-protein diets and intermittent fasting activate AMPK, promoting the cellular cleanup processes that appear crucial for longevity. “Basically the body starts to eat itself, which seems to be important for cleaning all the damaged proteins and so on.”

It remains important for energy traders to closely monitor the Strait of Hormuz and other key critical maritime chokepoints in the region (recall Red Sea events last week, given persistent geopolitical tensions involving Iran and Israel. 

Tehran retains a diverse toolkit—both asymmetric and conventional—for disrupting tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. These methods include naval mine deployment, anti-ship missile and drone launches, fast-attack craft swarms, and the seizure of vessels transiting the critical waterway responsible for 20% of the world’s oil flows. 

Shortly after the U.S. launched “Operation Midnight Hammer” in late June, deploying stealth bombers to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan using Massive Ordnance Penetrator bombs, Iran’s parliament voted to authorize the closure of the strait. However, Tehran never closed the strait, but there was at least one report we covered that said the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps mulled over littering the waterway with mines. 

Given that the mines were not deployed, a troubling new report from local media indicates that the IRGC has intercepted and seized a foreign tanker in the Gulf of Oman. The seizure was reportedly carried out under the pretext of “fuel smuggling,” according to Iranian state media outlet Mehr News Agency (MNA) on X. 

“The Chief Justice of Hormozgan Province has announced the seizure of a foreign oil tanker on charges of smuggling 2 million liters of fuel in the Sea of Oman,” MNA reported. 

The Chief Justice of Hormozgan Province has announced the seizure of a foreign oil tanker on charges of smuggling 2 million liters of fuel in the Sea of Oman.#BREAKING #BreakingNews‌ pic.twitter.com/gCr6yugb9f

— Mehr News Agency (@MehrnewsCom) July 16, 2025

Here are more details from pro-Iranian news channel Al Mayadeen:

“Following persistent surveillance of suspected fuel smuggling operations off Iran’s Sea of Oman coast, security forces boarded and searched a foreign oil tanker,” Ghahremani said.

Iranian authorities confirmed the seizure of the foreign tanker after detecting irregularities in its cargo documentation, with security forces arresting 17 crew members, including the ship’s captain, during the operation. The vessel was suspected of transporting two million liters of smuggled fuel through the Sea of Oman.

Fuel smuggling via “dark fleet” tankers has been a consistent tactic used by Iran to circumvent Western sanctions, with much of the crude oil ultimately making its way to China. Details about the seized vessel’s ownership and final destination remain limited.

Authored by Bill Pan via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

China has finalized new export controls on technologies crucial to making batteries and processing critical minerals, materializing a threat made in the earlier stage of its trade war with the United States.

In a joint announcement on July 15, China’s Ministry of Commerce and Ministry of Science and Technology unveiled an updated version of its Catalog of Technologies Prohibited or Restricted from Export.

The catalog, alongside two dual-use export control lists, is a key instrument governing China’s export control regime. It is divided into two categories: technologies completely banned from export, and technologies restricted under a licensing regime. Technologies on the restricted list cannot be exported without government approval.

The latest update adds a new entry: battery cathode material preparation technology, which specifically covers those for producing lithium iron phosphate (LFP), lithium manganese iron phosphate (LMFP), and phosphate-based cathode precursors. These are essential materials for lithium-ion batteries used in electric vehicles.

The catalog also tightens existing rules under the section on the Non-Ferrous Metal Smelting and Rolling Industry, expanding restrictions on technologies for extracting metallic lithium and gallium, a vital material in semiconductor chips.

This round of revisions was initially proposed in January, shortly before the second inauguration of President Donald Trump, who has pledged to use tariffs and other tools to protect U.S. industries and rebalance trade between the United States and the rest of the world.

The U.S.–China trade war is currently in a state of truce, putting on hold Trump’s April 2 executive order on reciprocal tariffs, which would have raised tariffs on Chinese imports to as high as 145 percent.

China remains the world’s dominant miner and refiner of lithium and gallium. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has identified both materials as critical to national security and economic competitiveness.

According to a USGS report released in January, the United States is unable to domestically source any of 31 key critical minerals, and can only commercially refine one: beryllium. China, by contrast, is the primary source for eight of those minerals and the near-exclusive provider of 17.

Gallium was among three materials Beijing subjected to export controls in December 2024. In a parallel development, a high-grade gallium deposit discovered in Montana earlier that year has received fast-track permitting approval under the Trump administration, part of a broader push to reshore critical mineral supply chains and reduce reliance on Chinese imports.

The Montana deposit is being extracted by U.S. Critical Materials, a Utah-based company. Harvey Kaye, the company’s executive director, said during a hearing before the House Small Business Committee that it will extract gallium first.

“Our plan is to extract from our deposit literally this year and be able to, in effect, stand on the steps of the White House and/or Congress with a bag of gallium … found in Montana, processed with American technology, and available for the defense of this country and, indeed, the free world,” Kaye said.

Authored by Charles Kennedy via OilPrice.com,

• The U.S. is pressuring the IEA to shift focus from climate advocacy back to objective demand forecasting.

• Energy Secretary Chris Wright says withdrawal is an option if reforms aren’t made.

• The IEA’s forecasts clash with OPEC’s projection of rising oil demand through 2050.

The United States could abandon the International Energy Agency (IEA) if the organization, created in the aftermath of the 1970s Arab oil embargo, doesn’t return to forecasting energy demand without strongly promoting green energy.

“We will do one of two things: we will reform the way the IEA operates or we will withdraw,” U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright has told Bloomberg in an interview.

“My strong preference is to reform it,” Secretary Wright added.

The official echoes voices in the U.S. Republican party that the agency has become an advocate of the energy transition and is not objective in forecasting energy demand trends.

From ensuring security of supply after the 1970s embargo, the agency has shifted from this purpose in recent years to endorsing the net-zero by 2050 goal and is advocating for a major change in the global energy system to include more electric vehicles (EVs), renewable power supply, hydrogen, and all other low-carbon energy sources.

The IEA’s forecast that oil demand will peak this decade is “just total nonsense,” the U.S. official said, adding he has been talking to the IEA’s executive director Fatih Birol.

Reports emerged earlier this year that the Trump Administration is pushing the IEA to ditch its focus on the energy transition and promotion of renewable energy sources.

Last month, the IEA doubled down on its narrative that a peak in global oil demand is still on the horizon.

Annual global growth will slow from about 700,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2025 and 2026 “to just a trickle over the next several years, with a small decline expected in 2030, based on today’s policy settings and market trends,” the IEA said in its annual Oil 2025 report for the medium term. 

In contrast to this, OPEC sees oil demand rising through 2050, with consumption expected at 123 million barrels per day (bpd) then, up from about 105 million bpd this year.

Last week, OPEC reiterated its view that there is no peak oil demand in sight.

The cartel has slammed the IEA in recent years for “dangerous” forecasts of imminent peak oil demand that would hurt consumers and “only lead to energy volatility on a potentially unprecedented scale.”

Many were shocked (again) after the latest CPI and PPI data confirmed that the experts were once again dead wrong, and instead of the widely expected inflation tsunami, Trump’s tariffs have so far sparked only continued disinflation (which will only become more acute as home prices slide). And yet, anyone who read our Beige Book analysis from April (not to mention our accurate prediction from last June that “The Experts Are All Wrong About Inflation Under A Trump Presidency“) would have known just that: as we laid out, “Beige Book Finds Inflation Mentions Tumble To 3 Year Low” which was the clearest indication that despite the prevailing narrative, rising prices is simply not a thing businesses across the US are worried about. We got further confirmation of this last month, when the latest Beige Book found no runaway inflation (again) but instead that sentiment in the economy splitting along party lines.

Fast forward to today when the latest, July, Beige Book was released, and it revealed that according to reports across the 12 Fed districts, “economic activity increased slightly from late May through early July.” Five Districts reported slight or modest gains, five had flat activity, and the remaining two Districts (New York and Philadelphia, naturally democrat strongholds) noted modest declines in activity. That, the Beige Book admitted, represented an improvement over the previous report, in which half of Districts reported at least slight declines in activity.

The Beige Book said that all Districts reported that while economic activity rebounded, uncertainty remained elevated, contributing to ongoing caution by businesses. Nonauto consumer spending declined in most Districts, softening slightly overall (hardly a signal of an imminent inflationary burst). Auto sales receded modestly on average, after consumers had rushed to buy vehicles earlier this year to avoid tariffs. Tourism activity was mixed, manufacturing activity edged lower, and nonfinancial services activity was little changed on average but varied across Districts.

Meanwhile, offsetting some of the economic slowdown, loan volume increased slightly in most Districts. On the flip side, construction activity slowed somewhat, constrained by rising costs in some Districts while home sales were flat or little changed in most Districts, and nonresidential real estate activity was also mostly steady. Activity in the agriculture sector remained weak. Energy sector activity declined slightly, and transportation activity was mixed.

Overall, the outlook was neutral to slightly pessimistic, as only two Districts expected activity to increase, and others foresaw flat or slightly weaker activity.

Focusing on labor markets, the Beige book reported the following:

• Employment increased very slightly overall, with one District noting modest increases, six reporting slight increases, three no change, and two noting slight declines. 
• Hiring remained generally cautious, which many contacts attributed to ongoing economic and policy uncertainty.
• Labor availability improved for many employers, with further reductions in turnover rates and increased job applications.
• A growing number of Districts cited labor shortages in the skilled trades.
• Several Districts also mentioned reduced availability of foreign-born workers, attributed to changes in immigration policy.
• Employers in a few Districts ramped up investments in automation and AI aimed at reducing the need for additional hiring.
• Wages increased modestly overall, extending recent trends, with reports that ranged from flat wages to moderate growth.
• Although reports of layoffs were limited in all industries, they were somewhat more common among manufacturers.
• Looking ahead, many contacts expected to postpone major hiring and layoff decisions until uncertainty diminished.

As for prices, it should come as no surprise by now that the runaway inflation everyone was expecting just isn’t there. Here is Beige book confirmation: 

• Prices increased across Districts, with seven characterizing price growth as moderate and five characterizing it as modest, mostly similar to the previous report. 
• In all twelve Districts, businesses reported experiencing modest to pronounced input cost pressures related to tariffs, especially for raw materials used in manufacturing and construction.
• Rising insurance costs represented another widespread source of pricing pressure.
• Many firms passed on at least a portion of cost increases to consumers through price hikes or surcharges, although some held off raising prices because of customers’ growing price sensitivity, resulting in compressed profit margins.
• Contacts in a wide range of industries expected cost pressures to remain elevated in the coming months, and yet despite expecting just that for months now, there has been zero abnormal tariff-driven inflation of note yet.

In short, for yet another month, the sky is not falling.

Here is a snapshot of highlights by Fed District:

• New York: Economic activity continued to decline modestly as heightened uncertainty hindered decision-making. Employment was up slightly and wage growth was modest. Selling price increases remained moderate, while input prices rose steeply with widespread tariff-related cost increases.

• Philadelphia: Business activity continued to decline modestly in the current Beige Book period. Activity fell moderately for nonmanufacturers but edged up slightly for manufacturers. Employment declined slightly, while wages increased slightly. Prices rose modestly after moderate growth last period. Generally, firms expect slight growth over the next six months, although economic uncertainty remains. 

• Cleveland: District business activity continued to be flat in recent weeks, but contacts expected activity to increase slightly in the months ahead. Several manufacturers reported softer orders, and transportation contacts reported a steep decline in demand. Contacts said that cost growth remained robust while their selling prices only increased modestly. 

• Richmond: The regional economy grew moderately in recent weeks. Consumer spending on retail, leisure, and hospitality increased at a modest to moderate rate. Business conditions were largely unchanged as firms across most sectors reported steady sales and demand. However, manufacturing activity contracted slightly with firms citing higher prices curtailing demand in recent weeks. Employment rose modestly and price growth remained moderate this cycle. 

• Atlanta: The economy of the Sixth District was little changed. Labor markets and wages were steady. Prices rose moderately. Consumer spending softened, but travel and tourism increased modestly. Residential and commercial real estate activity declined. Transportation activity grew modestly. Loan growth was flat. Manufacturing was flat, but energy activity rose moderately. 

• Chicago: Economic activity increased slightly. Employment increased modestly; consumer spending, business spending, and construction and real estate activity were flat; manufacturing declined slightly; and nonbusiness contacts saw no change in activity. Prices rose moderately, wages rose modestly, and financial conditions loosened slightly. Prospects for 2025 farm income were unchanged. 

• St. Louis: Economic activity has remained unchanged. Employment levels were generally unchanged. Prices continued to increase moderately, and most contacts continued to expect higher nonlabor costs in the coming months as a result of tariffs. The outlook among contacts remains highly uncertain and slightly pessimistic. 

• Minneapolis: Economic activity was flat overall. Employment grew slightly and wage growth was moderate. Price growth eased but manufacturers felt more acute pressures. Overall consumer spending was down but tourism activity increased. Construction and energy activity decreased while manufacturing and vehicle sales were flat. 

• Kansas City: Economic activity in the Tenth District was mostly unchanged, with some rebound in consumer spending and financial activities. Labor availability was reportedly much higher, which lowered expected wage pressures for the remainder of the year. Prices rose at a moderate pace. 

• Dallas: Economic activity in the Eleventh District economy was up slightly over the reporting period. Non-financial services activity grew modestly, and manufacturing production held steady. Loan volumes expanded, while oil production was flat, retail sales declined, and the housing market weakened. Employment was unchanged and price pressures held steady. Outlooks remained pessimistic. 

• San Francisco: Economic activity was largely stable. Employment levels were slightly lower. Wages grew at a slight pace and prices increased modestly. Retail sales expanded modestly, and consumer and business services demand eased. Conditions in manufacturing, and residential real estate markets weakened somewhat. Lending activity and conditions in agriculture were largely unchanged.

And finally, confirming that contrary to conventional wisdom the economic picture has been largely unchanged since April, the latest Beige Book found that contrary to prevailing media narratives, mentions of inflation actually dropped again, sliding to a new four year low of just 5 from 10 the previous month (effectively before the Biden inflationary explosion period) while mentions of “slow” rose to the highest since last October, just after the Powell Fed cut rates by 50bps. Overall, a very awkward report for a Fed that no longer has any excuse not to cut. 

All of which suggests that the US economy – while hardly on fire as it was during the hyperinflationary period of Biden’s admin – continues to chug along and is hardly collapsing as so many Trump foes would like to see; and it certainly is not seeing prices explode higher.

Authored by Luis Cornelio via Headline USA,

Newly released emails further expose the behind-the-scenes push within the Biden DOJ’s push to manufacture a criminal case against President Donald Trump. 

The emails – obtained by the Senate Judiciary Committee and first reported by legal expert Margot Cleveland – show the FBI scrambling to go after Trump despite having no evidence. 

One email revealed former FBI Agent Tim Thibault plotting with colleagues how to zero in on the Willard Hotel.

Trump allies used the hotel as a command center to monitor the 2020 election results. 

2/ They wanted to open an investigation to allow for investigative activities. NOTE open an investigation to investigate a crime of which they had evidence! pic.twitter.com/p3WtqMRs0T

— Margot Cleveland (@ProfMJCleveland) July 15, 2025

According to the email, Thibault was actively hunting for a crime tied to the Willard Hotel.

He laid out two options: launch an assessment or open a preliminary investigation. 

He objected to the first option, noting it would limit the FBI’s authority. Under an assessment, interviews and “more probative” actions were barred. Subpoenas would be tightly restricted.

Thibault admitted the office was “hard at work attempting to predicate a Preliminary investigation.” This route, he said, would enable a broader and likely more aggressive investigation. 

In short, the FBI tried to launch a criminal probe without a shred of evidence. 

The email, dated March 2, 2022, came just six months before Special Counsel Jack Smith unsealed an indictment over Trump’s efforts to question the 2020 election. 

Federalist senior legal writer Margot Cleveland said the officials involved should be referred to the Inspector General for further investigation. 

One recipient on the email chain was Wayne Jacobs, a senior FBI agent whom Director Chris Wray later promoted to lead the Philadelphia field office. 

As Headline USA previously reported, Jacobs is married to former J6 committee investigator Soumya Dayananda. 

That connection has raised red flags, especially after Dayananda bragged that the charges against Trump closely mirrored her committee’s work. 

Despite his ties to Dayananda and the Biden-era FBI, Jacobs remains on the taxpayer payroll, running one of the agency’s most powerful field offices. 

The FBI fired Thibault in 2024 after he violated the Hatch Act by making political posts on social media. Whistleblowers have accused Thibault of showing a “pattern of active public partisanship.” Thibault participated in probes of both Trump and Hunter Biden.

Read the emails below…

8/ And looks like Jacobs is still in charge at Philly! pic.twitter.com/H1q841Jted

— Margot Cleveland (@ProfMJCleveland) July 15, 2025

9/9 So is Jacobs part of the swamp or fingering the bad actors and revealing where the bones are buried?

— Margot Cleveland (@ProfMJCleveland) July 15, 2025