Beer sales over the July 4th holiday weekend came in stronger than previously expected, prompting distributors to raise their outlook for the remainder of the year and fueling renewed optimism around Constellation Brands (STZ). Anheuser-Busch InBev (ABI) also posted a solid performance during the period, though one brand under its adult beverage umbrella remained a clear laggard. Unsurprisingly, it was Bud Light, still struggling to recover for reasons that need little explanation. 

In the latest iteration of Goldman’s Beverage Bytes survey—covering 40 beer distributors and 125,000 retail outlets, or about 25% of all U.S. alcohol-selling locations—analysts led by Bonnie Herzog found that, although expectations were tempered heading into the holiday weekend due to soft scanner data, an uncertain macro environment, and weak Memorial Day trends, favorable summer weather trends across the Lower 48 during the July 4th holiday (which fell on a Friday) helped drive surprisingly strong beer demand. 

Herzog said, “As a result, distributors are now incrementally more upbeat about the all-important summer selling season and their growth outlook for the category this year.” 

About 60% of respondents said sales were up year-over-year, with STZ and ABI emerging as the top performers. Brands such as Modelo Especial, Pacifico, and Sun Cruiser saw solid momentum, though Corona Extra continued to underperform. 

Here are the notable takeaways from the report:

• The promotional environment appeared broadly rational over the 4th of July holiday weekend – as 53% of beer volumes were promoted (in-line with last year) – though ABI was the clear standout in terms of promotional intensity;

• Most distributors indicated that beer category sales accelerated in Q2 vs Q1 – citing improved weather trends and strength for Mich Ultra and Busch Light (among others);

• Most distributors expect the second half of the year to be stronger vs the first half – with distributors now expecting category growth declines this year of only -1.0% (vs -1.9% expected in our Memorial Day survey);

• Volume trends for Modelo Especial & Pacifico were also quite strong over the holiday weekend – something the majority of distributors indicated – however, Corona Extra remains under some pressure; and

• Sun Cruiser remains a standout – and the majority of distributors indicated that volumes were up for the brand over the 4th of July holiday weekend vs last year. However, distributors highlighted the spending on Sun Cruiser is unsustainable and some raised concerns that the category is becoming saturated.

There was a lot to unpack in the holiday volume trends… 

Topline Results:

• Anheuser-Busch InBev (ABI) led all manufacturers, with 52% of distributors reporting higher volumes vs last year—followed by Constellation Brands (STZ) at 33% and Boston Beer (SAM) at 18%.

• Overall beer category performance improved: 40% of distributors reported year-over-year volume gains for July 4th (vs 20% on Memorial Day); 37% still saw declines.

• Hard seltzers remained weak: 64% of distributors reported volume declines, though this was a slight improvement from Memorial Day (70%).

By brand, Herzog noted twice that Bud Light “continues to struggle” and “remains pressured following the Bud Light controversy,” more than two years after the brewer’s woke marketing team—aiming to score DEI points—hired Dylan Mulvaney, a biological male acting as a woman, for what became one of the worst ad promotions ever in corproate America.

Refresher: This is who nuked the brand. 

JUST IN: Bud Light’s marketing Vice President Alissa Heinerscheid is taking a leave of absence.

Here she is slandering her customer base as “fratty and out of touch” as she defends the decision to hire a tranny to promote their products.

If Bud Light is smart, they will fire… pic.twitter.com/wJMkyitD8F

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) April 22, 2023

Brand highlights over the holiday weekend:

ABI (Anheuser-Busch InBev):

• Strongest performer overall.

• Michelob Ultra was a standout, with 93% of distributors seeing y/y gains (56% significantly).

• Bud Light remains a drag—74% reported lower volumes; marketing support remains weak.

Constellation Brands (STZ):

• Strong holiday weekend performance.

• Pacifico led, with 65% of distributors seeing gains.

• Modelo Especial also performed well (52% up), while Corona Extra continues to face challenges (47% down).

Molson Coors (TAP):

• Mixed performance.

• Coors Banquet was a bright spot (73% up).

• Coors Light and Miller Lite both underperformed, with 74% and 78% of distributors, respectively, reporting y/y declines.

Heineken (HEIN):

• Weak showing, with only 14% reporting growth and 46% noting volume declines.

Boston Beer (SAM):

• Modest improvement; Sun Cruiser stood out, with 72% of distributors reporting growth (44% significantly).

• Twisted Tea and Truly showed signs of pressure, with 35% and 76% of distributors respectively reporting declines.

Hard Seltzer Category:

• Remains under pressure. White Claw: 31% up, 41% down.

• High Noon: 40% up, 40% down slightly.

Our takeaway: Bud Light’s struggles continue. Someone ought to write a white paper on why woke marketing nukes brands. Remember Jaguar earlier this year? These marketing teams lined with liberal college elites are completely out of touch with how the real world operates, and oblivious to the fact that the Overton Window has shifted to the center-right. Woke is over (for now). 

Pro subs can read the full note in the usual place.

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) said over the weekend that agencies have terminated more federal contracts worth as much as $2.8 billion.

In a post on social media platform X on July 12, DOGE, a task force established by President Donald Trump in January, said that “over the last week, agencies terminated 230 wasteful contracts,” resulting in savings of $407 million.

That includes a contract from the U.S. Department of Agriculture for a “Mexico sustainable landscapes consultant” and a Treasury Department contract for “mentoring, evaluation, learning specialist services in Haiti,” according to the DOGE post. The post included what appears to be screenshots of the programs’ descriptions.

Earlier this month, DOGE’s website released an update that the task force has saved approximately $190 billion, which it says amounts to around $1,180 per taxpayer. So far, the Department of Health and Human Services, General Services Administration, Education Department, Office of Personnel Management, and Department of Labor have initiated the most cuts, according to the site.

Meanwhile, DOGE’s database shows that around 11,700 contracts have been terminated across all federal agencies, with an estimated saving of around $44 billion. At the same time, around 15,500 federal grants have been slashed, it shows, worth some $44 billion.

The update from DOGE comes as the Senate is slated to vote on spending cuts this week that would claw back $9.4 billion in public media and foreign aid spending. Senate Democrats are trying to kill the measure but need a few Republicans to join them.

Trump has asked lawmakers to rescind nearly $1.1 billion from the Corporation for Public Broadcasting, which represents the full amount it’s due to receive during the next two budget years.

On July 10, the president warned that he would withhold his backing for any Republican lawmaker who opposes the rescissions package, which also includes cuts to foreign aid.

“It is very important that all Republicans adhere to my Recissions Bill and, in particular, DEFUND THE CORPORATION FOR PUBLIC BROADCASTING (PBS and NPR), which is worse than CNN & MSDNC put together,” Trump said in a Truth Social post.

Trump went on to say that “any Republican that votes to allow this monstrosity to continue broadcasting will not have my support or Endorsement.”

Other than Trump, the White House has said that the public media system is politically biased and an unnecessary expense.

The corporation distributes more than two-thirds of the money to more than 1,500 locally operated public television and radio stations, with much of the remainder assigned to National Public Radio and Public Broadcasting Service to support national programming.

The update from DOGE over the past weekend suggests that the organization is still engaged in activities to identify and root out what it deems to be fraud, waste, and abuse within the federal government, following the departure of former White House special government employee Elon Musk from the administration in late May.

Musk, who had effectively served as a spokesperson and leader for DOGE during his time in the White House, has since had a falling out with the Trump administration and Republicans, announcing earlier this month that he would form his own political party.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Will the dreaded tariff-flation show up this time? Or will the excuse factory be required to spin the Trump-policy-driven price hike expectations as coming next time?

Expectations were for a modest acceleration in prices in June and headline Consumer Prices did just that rising 0.3% MoM (as expected) and +2.7% YoY (up from +2.4% prior and hotter than the +2.6% YoY expected)…

Source: Bloomberg

The MoM acceleration was driven by a flip from deflation to inflation for Energy prices…

Source: Bloomberg

New and Used Car prices are dropping!!!

That’s not supposed to happen…

CPI Highlights: the index for shelter rose 0.2% in June and was the primary factor in the all items monthly increase. The energy index rose 0.9% in June as the gasoline index increased 1.0% over the month. The index for food increased 0.3% as the index for food at home rose 0.3% and the index for food away from home rose 0.4% in June.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2% in June, following a 0.1% increase in May. Indexes that increased over the month include household furnishings and operations, medical care, recreation, apparel, and personal care. The indexes for used cars and trucks, new vehicles, and airline fares were among the major indexes that decreased in June.

The headline CPI YoY is the hottest since February but Core CPI printed cooler than expected (+0.1% MoM vs +0.2% MoM exp) with the YoY rise higher at +2.9% (as expected)…

Source: Bloomberg

Core Goods prices are accelerating on a YoY basis…

Source: Bloomberg

More details on Core CPI which rose 0.2%, below the 0.3% 3 estimate:

• The shelter index increased 0.2% over the month. The index for owners’ equivalent rent rose 0.3% in June and the index for rent increased 0.2%.

  • Conversely, the lodging away from home index fell 2.9% in June.

• The household furnishings and operations index rose 1.0% in June, after rising 0.3% in May.

• The index for recreation increased 0.4% over the month.

• The apparel index increased 0.4% in June and the personal care index rose 0.3%.

• In contrast, the index for used cars and trucks fell 0.7% in June after declining 0.5 percent in May.

  • The new vehicles index fell 0.3 percent over the month, and the airline fares index declined 0.1 percent.

• The medical care index increased 0.5% over the month, following a 0.3-percent increase in May.

  • The index for hospital and related services increased 0.4 percent in June as did the index for prescription drugs.

  • The physicians’ services index rose 0.2 percent over the month.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 2.9% over the past 12 months. The shelter index increased 3.8% over the last year. Other indexes with notable increases over the last year include medical care (+2.8%), motor vehicle insurance (+6.1%), household furnishings and operations (+3.3%), and recreation (+2.1%).

This is the 5th monthly ‘miss’ for Core CPI in a row – the sky is falling analyst crowd continues to be wrong…

Source: Bloomberg

Rent/Shelter inflation slowed in June…

• Rent inflation June 3.77% YoY, down from 3.80% in May and the lowest since Jan 2022

• Shelter inflation June 3.80% YoY, down from 3.86% in May and the lowest since Oct 2021

SuperCore CPI (Services ex-shelter) rose 0.36% MoM, lifting prices 3.34% YoY – highest since feb but well off the YTD highs

Source: Bloomberg

Medical Care Services costs are also starting to accelerate (not exactly tariff-driven)…

Source: Bloomberg

On a 3m- and 6m- annualized basis, there are no signs of the tariff-driven price hikes as yet…

Source: Bloomberg

Not exactly the damning evidence of terrifying tariff-flation that the establishment wants us to believe is coming…

No inflationary pass throughs. But they will absolutely, definitely show up next month, or maybe the month after, but certainly before 2030.
Because… “The lack of tariff inflation remains transitory” https://t.co/pbD9Cc3owN

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 15, 2025

Developing…

Apple is reportedly set to join the Pentagon as an investor in MP Materials and announce a $500 million partnership with the company, according to a Fox Business report citing individuals familiar with the matter this morning.

MP shares surged more than 10% on the news in a move that comes after a more than 100% gain over the last several months for the critical U.S. rare Earth mineral company. 

The deal includes a commitment from Apple to purchase rare earth magnets produced at MP’s facility in Texas, using domestically sourced materials. As part of the agreement, the two companies are also expected to develop a new recycling facility in Mountain Pass, California, to recover and repurpose rare earth elements from used electronics.

In addition, Apple and MP plan to build a second manufacturing plant in Fort Worth, Texas, further solidifying a U.S.-based supply chain for these critical materials.

Over a month ago, we initially flagged MP and USA Rare Earth as two companies likely to be major winners from Washington’s rare earth reshoring push—particularly under policies aimed at reducing reliance on China. Since we first mentioned it more than a month ago, the stock is up more than 100%.

We noted at the time that MP’s uniquely central role in the domestic rare earth supply chain positioned it for outperformance, and we pointed out that the stock had an enormous 21% short interest, making it ripe for a squeeze.

Further, our lengthy report for subscribers “The Coming Rare Earth Revolution And How To Profit: All You Need To Know About The “Ex-China Supply Chain“ detailed why MP stood to substantially outperform in the coming months and years as the critical rare earth supply chain was shifted domestically to exclude China, and to benefit domestic miners and producers such as MP. 

Our conviction was promptly validated days ago when the U.S. government—via the State Department and the Pentagon—took a 15% stake in MP, an exceedingly rare move that made the U.S. the company’s largest shareholder.

The investment marked a “transformational” public-private partnership by the Trump admin, aimed at building a domestic rare earth element supply chain. As part of the deal, the Pentagon will receive convertible preferred shares and warrants equal to a 15% stake—surpassing stakes held by CEO James Litinsky and BlackRock. The shares convert at $30.03 each and carry no cash dividend.

MP stock surged over 50% on the news, becoming the top performer in the mining sector this year and more than covering the cost of our premium subscription for readers who acted quickly.

That was great news. But it was even better news that among the biggest shorts were Goldman’s hedge fund clients who, for months, had plotted and schemed how to unobtrusively short the name during the bank’s various idea dinner events.

Here is an excerpt from the latest note by Goldman energy and natural resources specialist Adam Wijaya out days ago:

Rare Earths… how high… biggest move in the space yesterday came from Rare Earths complex… led by MP +51%… have hosted several Metals idea dinners over the last few weeks and this name has been a consensus short… pain yesterday was real…

Now, that pain is very likely going to continue today. Thanks, “Tim Apple”. 

China’s GDP grew 5.2% on the year in the second quarter, just fractionally above expectations (as is usually the case when Beijing reports fake numbers) the National Bureau of Statistics said Tuesday, fueled by frontloaded exports ahead of even more tariffs and a flood of subsidies that supported the manufacturing sector.

The figure beat the median forecast for 5.1% growth but was slower than the 5.4% expansion in the first quarter. Still, it keeps the country on track to meet the government’s growth target of “around 5%” for the full year.

Exports rose 5.8% for the quarter, off slightly the 5.9% growth pace in the first half of 2025, as the trade war with the U.S. fueled front-loading and export diversion to other countries. The U.S. jacked up tariffs on Chinese goods in April to as high as 145%, before temporarily lowering most of them following an agreement about a month later. A decline in U.S.-bound shipments was offset by growth in other regions, such as Southeast Asia – which China uses as a transshipment hub – and Europe, where dumping of Chinese EVs is crushing the local automotive industry.

The economy “withstood pressures and rose to challenges, with overall stable and improving economic performance,” the NBS said in a statement as it goalseeked the random number which has zero bearing to what is going on in the economy. In fact, the one number that does matter, China power output, rose just 0.8% YoY for the Jan-Jun period (to 4537.1b kwh), and is a much more accurate reflection of China’s actual growth. 

Wednesday’s GDP figure reveals that “growth in the world’s second-largest economy remains resilient, despite U.S. President Donald Trump’s volatile tariff policy on China” according to the Nikkei. After reaching near embargo-level rates, US tariffs on Chinese imports were lowered to 55% following a temporary truce reached in May, prompting a new flood of exports seeking to frontrun the eventual increase of tariffs.

The data also underscores a perennial imbalance in China’s economy that could face further headwinds in the second half of the year: sluggish domestic demand and an excess supply of goods. As noted before, the country remains stuck in its longest streak of deflation in decades, weighing on corporate profits and wage growth. Consumption continued to lag behind other growth drivers, as falling home prices and a weak job market dampen consumer spending.

“The economic outlook for the rest of the year remains challenging,” said Zichun Huang, an economist at Capital Economics. “With exports set to slow and the tailwind from fiscal support on course to fade, growth is likely to slow further during the second half of this year.”

Elsewhere in the data dump, Industrial output growth jumped to 6.8% in June from a year earlier, accelerating from May’s 5.8%, suggesting manufacturers have been rushing to fulfill orders amid May’s trade truce with Washington. 

Growth in retail sales, a proxy for consumption, slowed sharply to 4.8% in June year-on-year, from 6.4% in May. The surveyed urban jobless rate stood at 5% in June, unchanged from May, though unemployment is expected to worsen as a record 12.2 million college graduates hit the labor market this summer. 

Beijing has made reviving consumption a central economic objective for the year, though it has so far refrained from offering cash handouts to households. Instead, China focused on expanding the budget and widened the range of subsidized goods to include smartphones and tablets. The central government earmarked 300 billion yuan ($41.8 billion) to fund subsidy program for consumer goods this year. While some cities suspended the program in recent months after funds ran out, the government has pledged to roll out a new round of subsidies this month.

Meanwhile, a prolonged property market slowdown continues to weigh on consumer confidence, as housing accounts for around 70% of Chinese household wealth. New home prices in 70 key cities in June fell 0.3% from May, the biggest monthly drop in eight months, according to data provider Wind Information. Falling asset prices have dampened consumers’ appetite for big-ticket items, intensifying price wars in industries ranging from electric vehicles to food.

Sheng Laiyun, NBS deputy director, acknowledged that existing policies are insufficient to stem falling home sales and prices. “More efforts are needed to stabilize and transform the sector,” Sheng told reporters on Monday.

One major challenge facing Beijing is how to end persistent deflation. In recent weeks, authorities have urged industries, including solar panels and electric vehicles, to refrain from price wars that have pushed many companies into the red, though analysts question how effective such top-down approach will be.

The producer price index, which measures wholesale prices at factory gates, recorded its steepest drop in almost two years in June. The government has recently stepped up its criticism of excessive competition, signaling greater desire to address oversupply issues. But “local officials may balk at the economic cost of implementing them unless they are also accompanied by more substantial demand-side stimulus,” Capital Economics wrote in a report last week.

Trade relations with the U.S. remain uncertain as Beijing is set to renegotiate terms with Washington as the Aug. 12 deadline on the trade war truce approaches. Tensions have also escalated with the European Union, where officials have criticized China’s new export controls on rare-earth minerals. Leaders from the bloc are set to meet with their Chinese counterparts later this month.

Some advisers to Chinese policymakers are urging more proactive measures to absorb the impact of volatile U.S. tariff policy. Huang Yiping, a member of the People’s Bank of China’s monetary policy committee, said earlier this month that China should consider launching an additional fiscal stimulus of up to 1.5 trillion yuan to offset the tariff shock.

Still, many analysts believe the robust (if completely fake) GDP figures reported so far suggest policymakers are in no rush to unveil large-scale stimulus measures to meet the full-year growth target of around 5%. Or at least the fake numbers give Beijing the buffer zone to ignore the ongoing economic slowdown until it’s too late. 

“A major stimulus is unlikely if exports remain steady, because Beijing will do just enough to hit its growth target,” said Larry Hu, chief China economist at Macquarie Group.

“In short, what Beijing will do largely depends on the economic policies and tariff rates set in Washington.”

Authored by Frank Fang via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Eight Chinese nationals on student visas in the United States have been indicted for their alleged role in a scam targeting elderly Americans through fraudulent computer pop-ups, the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Middle District of Pennsylvania announced on July 11.

The defendants, who came to the United States to attend college, are accused of defrauding more than 50 victims across 19 states out of more than $10 million. They were indicted by a federal grand jury in Williamsport, Pennsylvania, for conspiracy to commit wire fraud.

“These indictments highlight the relentless efforts of Homeland Security Investigations [HSI] to safeguard our elderly population from complex fraud operations,” Edward V. Owens, HSI Philadelphia special agent in charge, said in a statement.

“Schemes like these cause significant emotional and financial harm to elderly victims across the country. HSI, in partnership with the FBI, remains steadfast in our commitment to securing justice for the victims and ensuring that those responsible are held fully accountable.”

The defendants are Yankun Jiang, 24, and Hanlin Yang, 24, both of State College, Pennsylvania; Chenhao Chen, 25, Xiaoqing Tu, 24, and Dongjie Lu, 35, all three of California; Lei Bao, 22, of New York; Kuo Zhang, 31, of New Jersey; and Jiacheng Zhang, 25, of Florida.

According to the second superseding indictment, the defendants are accused of running the computer pop-up scam from August 2023 to February 2024. The pop-ups were disguised as coming from Microsoft, falsely warning victims that their computers had been hacked and displaying a phone number to call for help.

When victims called the number, they were allegedly fed various lies, for example, that their bank accounts were “not secure” and that they would need to withdraw from their savings, according to the court document.

To conceal their crimes, the defendants allegedly instructed the victims not to tell anyone what they had been told, and to tell banks that the large cash withdrawals were for purposes such as “home remodeling,” the court document states.

The defendants or “couriers” who were part of the conspiracy allegedly traveled to the victims’ homes to collect the money while impersonating a “federal agent” or “federal marshal,” according to the court document.

If convicted, each defendant faces a maximum penalty of 20 years in prison and a fine.

Jiacheng Zhang and his lawyer could not be reached for comment.

Chen’s lawyer declined to comment when contacted by The Epoch Times.

The Epoch Times contacted the remaining six defendants’ lawyers for comment but did not receive a response by publication time.

The FBI released tips to help the public protect themselves from tech support and government impersonation scams in January 2024. The agency asks people not to click on unsolicited pop-ups on their computers or contact unknown telephone numbers provided in pop-ups, texts, or emails.

The Federal Trade Commission warns on its website that scammers might disguise pop-up windows as error messages from computers’ operating systems or antivirus software, as well as logos from trusted companies or websites.

“Real security warnings and messages will never ask you to call a phone number,” the Federal Trade Commission states.

In April, the Pinellas County Sheriff’s Office in Florida issued a warning regarding a scam targeting locals through fake computer pop-ups disguised as antivirus company McAfee’s security alerts, saying one victim had already lost more than $530,000.

The sheriff’s office asked the public to always use up-to-date security software and to never allow remote access to their computers in response to unexpected pop-ups.

In recent months, there have been other cases involving Chinese nationals in connection with scams.

In April, a federal grand jury in California indicted a Chinese citizen, who was a former resident of San Jose, California, for alleged involvement in a government impersonation scam. According to prosecutors, an elderly victim, who was allegedly tricked into believing that there was a federal warrant for her, lost more than $780,000 to the scam.

In May, a Chinese citizen was accused of impersonating a U.S. marshal in an attempt to con a New York state resident out of $98,000.

A Chinese-built maglev train, set to become the country’s fastest ground transport vehicle, was publicly unveiled this week at the 17th Modern Railways exhibition in Beijing, according to South China Morning Post. 

Developed by China Railway Rolling Stock Corporation (CRRC), the train can reach speeds of 600km/h (373mph) and is designed to drastically cut travel times and strengthen China’s global lead in high-speed rail.

The train features a sleek, aerodynamic nose to reduce drag, and a futuristic interior with a large digital display.

The train is intended to function as a “point-to-point transport tool” between major cities, complementing existing high-speed rail. At full speed, it could cut the Beijing–Shanghai trip from 5.5 hours to about 2.5.

“This model is equipped with a fully automated driving function … [which] requires integrating a variety of technologies such as 5G communication, AI video capture, acoustic sensing, and the deployment of various types of sensors along the line,” CRRC engineer Shao Nan said.

He also noted the train aims to “fill the speed gap between high-speed rail and aviation within 2,000km,” blending the efficiency of rail with the speed of flight.

The maglev uses superconducting magnets to levitate above the track after reaching 150km/h, eliminating friction and enabling lower noise, no emissions, and reduced maintenance. Before that speed, the train runs on rubber wheels. The project is still undergoing route tests and safety evaluations before commercial launch.

Though China opened its first low-speed maglev line in 2003 with German technology, and domestic versions in Changsha (2016) and Beijing (2017), these earlier systems were limited to 120km/h. The new maglev marks a significant leap forward.

South China Morning Post writes that China’s broader high-speed rail network has rapidly expanded to 48,000km by the end of 2024, the largest in the world, with plans to surpass 50,000km this year.

CRRC’s maglev is just one of several cutting-edge transport projects underway. In 2024, China tested its maglev hyperloop project, aiming to eventually reach 1,000km/h, and researchers developed AI-based suspension systems to counter high-speed vibrations and improve ride comfort.

Despite these advances, experts cited by SCMP caution that the sector still faces steep technical and financial hurdles, including the high cost of building dedicated maglev and hyperloop infrastructure and the need for advanced technologies like superconducting magnets.

Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) on Monday issued a rare statement accusing the West, under US leadership, of turning Moldova into a military outpost aimed at confronting Russia, akin to what has happened over several years with Ukraine.

The SVR’s provocative statement said Washington wants to use the country as “cannon fodder” in future hostilities, which is allegedly being fast-tracked by Western foreign policy decision-makers.

The statement further alleged that NATO wants to turn tiny Moldova into a “military testing ground” by modernizing its railways to European specifications and constructing major logistics hubs for future Western military deployments. This also includes serious upgrades to airfields, to host military planes, according to Russian state media.

Russian intelligence also accused Moldovan President Maia Sandu of surrendering national interests to Western powers, dubbing her administration a “comprador regime” – and that her pro-European Party of Action and Solidarity is being propped up and strengthened by the West.

These charged can’t exactly be dismissed as paranoia or propaganda, given for example that just last year the United Kingdom inked a new defense pact with Moldova, precisely to counter ‘Russian aggression’ – as we previously detailed.

The tiny Eastern European nation bordering Ukraine has experienced the same kind of internal political pro-EU vs. pro-Russia tug of war historically on display in other countries such as Ukraine or Georgia.

The UK foreign ministry described the defense agreement as about “building on extensive cooperation between the two countries and strengthening Moldovan resilience against external threats.”

One thing which has long alarmed the West is the presence of Russian ‘peacekeeping’ troops in Moldova’s breakaway Transnistria region. 

As for Transnistria, although it has diverse ethnic demographics almost equally apportioned between Russians, Moldovans, Romanians and Ukrainians, the Russian demographic slightly ekes out its counterparts with a plurality of 29% of Transnistrians belonging to the group.

The pro-Russian cultural sentiment of the region is exemplified by its flag, which has remained the same as it was when Transnistria was a part of the Soviet Union. That representative Russian demographic, coupled with broader dissatisfaction of the Moldovan government, has fostered support for assimilation into the Russian Federation for quite some time.

Authored by Tamuz Itai via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Europe’s political landscape continues to defy expectations, leaving analysts and policymakers scrambling to explain outcomes that, in hindsight, seem foreseeable. From the UK’s Brexit vote to Giorgia Meloni’s rise in Italy, the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) surge in Germany, Dutch farmers’ revolts, and Marine Le Pen’s ascent in France, each development triggers a chorus of shocked “No one saw this coming.” Yet millions of Europeans did.

The persistent surprise may stem from a flawed lens—dominated by English-language media filters, historical overcorrections, and shrinking on-the-ground reporting—that distorts our understanding. As these shifts ripple globally, misreading Europe poses strategic risks we can no longer afford to ignore.

The pattern is unmistakable. Europe has been portrayed as a stable, liberal bastion—centrist coalitions driving climate action and European Union unity, embodying a progressive ideal. Yet reality diverges: The UK exited the EU in 2016, Meloni became Italy’s prime minister in 2022, Germany’s AfD polled second nationally in 2025, Dutch farmers blocked roads over nitrogen policies, and France’s center collapsed in 2024, elevating Le Pen. Each time, English-language coverage reacts with shock, missing signals visible to local populations.

The Media’s Blind Spot

This disconnect begins with a critical media filter. English-language European outlets, such as state-funded France 24, Deutsche Welle, Politico Europe, and center-left publications like Le Monde, cater to an urban, university-educated, globally minded audience. These sources are mostly credible and professional but reflect a narrow slice of society, underrepresenting conservative and rural perspectives.

A key disparity amplifies this bias: While mainstream liberal media regularly publish English editions, conservative and right-wing outlets across Europe—such as Germany’s Junge Freiheit or Italy’s Il Giornale—rarely do. This choice stems from several factors: a lack of perceived demand in English-speaking markets, suspicion of hostile Anglo-American coverage, and a strategic focus on local bases.

As a result, English-speaking audiences relying on European media’s English editions get an incomplete picture, skewed toward liberal narratives and missing the conservative currents driving political shifts.

Europe’s Hidden Currents

Country-specific examples reveal the depth of this gap. In Italy, Meloni’s 2022 victory, often labeled “neo-fascist” because of her party’s post-fascist roots, was misread by English outlets. Yet her platform—lower taxes, stronger borders, and national pride—reflected frustration with unelected technocrats and Brussels’ fiscal rules. She formed a coalition with Matteo Salvini’s League and Forza Italia, securing a parliamentary majority with 44 percent of the vote, appealing to millions disillusioned by years of instability, not extremism. Her government’s three-year record (2022 to 2025) has focused on economic recovery.

In Germany, AfD’s rise to more than 20 percent in state elections and a mayoral win in 2025 reflect discontent with soaring energy prices post-nuclear shutdown and immigration strains. Yet it’s framed as a dangerous anomaly, ignoring its roots in rural and eastern voter bases.

In the Netherlands, the government’s 2019 nitrogen reduction plan, mandating farm buyouts, sparked tractor blockades by farmers facing existential threats to generational livelihoods. The Farmer-Citizen Movement, formed in response, became the largest party in the Dutch Senate by 2023, a democratic revolt misread as a sideshow.

In France, President Emmanuel Macron’s 2024 dissolution of the National Assembly followed his party’s European election defeat, paving the way for Le Pen’s National Rally. Her movement, drawing working-class and youth voters from disaffected leftist unions, has softened its rhetoric—shifting from anti-immigrant hardline to economic populism—normalizing her appeal amid the center’s collapse.

Postwar Shadows

This blind spot is structural, rooted in postwar Europe’s “firewall” logic. After World War II, institutions like Germany’s Basic Law and France’s laïcité were designed to prevent fascism and nationalism, embedding a cultural consensus against these ideologies. The EU, as a moral project to dissolve rivalries, reinforced this stance.

Over time, this overcorrection stigmatized moderate conservatism—national flags or religious appeals were red flags, dissent from EU norms labeled “anti-democratic.” Repressing these voices buried resentment, fueling unexpected populism. The UK grooming gang scandals illustrate a similar pattern: institutional real fear of fomenting racism delayed action on abuse, worsening the crisis. In Europe, suppressing feedback has similarly driven political surprises.

Anglosphere’s Distance

The Anglosphere’s media compounds this. Decades ago, outlets like The New York Times or CBS maintained lively European bureaus, offering nuance and real understanding of reality on the ground. Budget cuts and shifting priorities have shuttered many, replacing correspondents with wire services and freelancers. Walter Duranty’s downplaying of Joseph Stalin’s Holodomor, despite his Moscow base, shows proximity isn’t a cure-all, but its absence distorts coverage, even by the mere addition of intermediaries.

Today’s reports—relying on embassy briefings, nongovernmental organization releases, the European media’s English language editions, or echo-chamber articles—many times lack critical context. For example, there was the framing of Dutch tractor protests as climate backlash rather than a livelihood crisis. For policymakers and investors, this distance misjudges risks, from policy legitimacy to market stability.

Global Stakes at Risk

The stakes are high. Misreading Europe leads to ill-fated policies, regulatory backlash, and eroding trust in journalism, fueling polarization. Each “shock result” signals analytical failure with global repercussions—markets shift, alliances waver, and migration patterns change. The postwar consensus, while essential, has ossified into dogma, blinding elites to new threats.

A Call for Clarity

To see Europe clearly, we ought to think and act like historians. We stop waiting for “The Truth” to arrive in a statement and start building our own mosaic. This means reading across ideological spectra, using artificial intelligence to translate non-English conservative sources like Junge Freiheit (even if one vehemently disagrees with its editorial line), tracking polling trends, and listening beyond capitals.

This is not about endorsing right-wing or conservative parties over liberal and progressive ideologies; rather, it underscores that navigating with a flawed map—lacking the full true picture—hurts everyone’s performance. Understanding Europe’s diverse political currents, progressive gains and conservative surges alike, reduces the risk of costly surprises.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.

The West has come to expect this from Hungary or even Slovakia, but tiny Malta as a key holdout preventing European action against Russia?

European Union (EU) ambassadors have not yet reached an agreement on the bloc’s 18th sanctions package against Moscow, largely due to Malta’s stance on maintaining the current price cap on Russian oil, according to a senior EU official cited in several European reports.

Earlier reports indicated that Greece, Cyprus, and Malta had initially resisted lowering the cap from $60 to $45 per barrel.

While Greece and Cyprus did not oppose revisiting the oil price ceiling in a Sunday meeting, Malta remained firm in its position, arguing that its shipping industry, a vitally important sector to its national economy, would be deeply and negatively impacted by any changes.

As of now, Malta is the only country still holding out, with its permanent representative to the EU saying in a statement: 

“We were unable to express political support during yesterday’s Committee of Permanent Representatives. However, discussions are ongoing, and Malta is constructively engaged with this goal in mind.”

Russia’s RT has also picked up on Malta’s holdout position, noting that “Malta’s specific concerns have not been detailed, but a large number of ships fly the flag of the island nation.”

It continues, “Its maritime insurance sector has previously expressed unease over measures that could drive shipowners to reflag outside the EU, causing economic harm to the bloc’s shipping registries and related industries.”

The new sanctions package, which was first set before EU members in June, also impacts Russian gas, as it proposes a ban on the future use of the Nord Stream pipeline.

* * *

One European source provides the following overview of the stalled 18th anti-Moscow sanctions proposal by the EU:

Energy sector:

• Ban on all transactions related to Nord Stream 1 and 2: no EU operator will be able to conduct deals through these pipelines.
• Price cap on oil products lowered from $60 to $45 per barrel to make it harder for Russia to generate revenue.
• Expansion of the “shadow fleet”: 77 more tankers that transported oil outside the law have been added to the sanctions list.
• Ban on importing oil products made from Russian oil to prevent sanctions evasion through third countries.

Financial sector:

• Transformation of SWIFT restrictions into a full ban on transactions: this applies to 22 Russian banks and third-country operators that help circumvent sanctions.
• Imposition of sanctions on the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) along with its subsidiaries.

* * *

Malta has long been accused of emerging as a new hotspot for Russia-linked ship-to-ship oil transfers amid the Ukraine war and resulting US-EU led sanctions…

🚨 The crude oil tanker SEAPRINCESS (IMO 9373668), sailing under Maltese flag, has recently been operating from Russian ports. Given the ongoing use of “shadow fleet” tactics to bypass sanctions, this vessel should be monitored closely. It may be at risk of damage. pic.twitter.com/vtwk9kv4V9

— RFN.OS.Blog (@RFNOSBlog) July 8, 2025

Meanwhile, Malta’s veto translates to EU leaders probably being forced to move forward with approving the package against Russia without including a revised oil price cap, while negotiations continue over energy supply assurances for Slovakia and Hungary.