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Tariff Windfall Drives Surprise $27 Billion US Budget Surplus In June

Tariff Windfall Drives Surprise $27 Billion US Budget Surplus In June

Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times,

New data from the Treasury Department show that surging tariff revenues in June helped the U.S. government post an unexpected budget surplus of $27 billion, offering a rare fiscal bright spot amid persistently high federal deficits and suggesting that President Donald Trump’s tariff policies are becoming a significant source of government revenue.

After running a $316 billion deficit in May, the government recorded a surplus of just over $27 billion last month, according to data released on July 11 by the Treasury Department. The tariff windfall helped narrow the fiscal year-to-date deficit to $1.34 trillion—a slight 1 percent improvement from the same period last year. By contrast, June 2024 saw a $71 billion deficit.

A key driver of the improved balance was a record-breaking surge in customs duties. The Treasury data released on Friday show that tariff collections soared to $27 billion in June alone, pushing total tariff revenues since October to $108 billion—the highest ever recorded for the first nine months of a fiscal year. June’s haul marked a significant jump from May’s prior record of $22 billion and was about 93 percent higher than the $56 billion collected during the same nine-month span of the previous year.

So far in July, customs duties have added another $2.4 billion to federal coffers, according to daily Treasury figures.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has predicted even higher tariff revenues in the months ahead. Speaking at a July 8 White House Cabinet meeting, he said the United States is on track to collect $300 billion by the end of calendar year 2025, noting that the “major” tariffs imposed under the Trump administration did not start until the second quarter.

Since returning to the White House for a second term, Trump has imposed 10 percent universal tariffs on trading partners, along with reciprocal tariffs announced in April on a number of nations, depending on the trade barriers they have with the United States. Trump initially applied a 90-day pause to most of the reciprocal tariffs, and later signed an executive order that extended the reprieve to Aug. 1.

In recent days, the president sent letters to several countries—including Japan, South Korea, and Thailand—informing them that reciprocal tariffs ranging from 25 to 40 percent will be imposed after Aug. 1 unless they agree to reduce trade barriers and negotiate bilateral deals.

Trump has said the higher duties will substantially boost government revenue.

“The big money will start coming in on Aug. 1st. I think it was made clear today by the letters that were sent out yesterday and today,” he said during the Cabinet meeting.

Bessent also cited a June 4 report from the Congressional Budget Office projecting that tariff revenues could total $2.8 trillion over the next decade—a figure he said the administration believes is understated.

Trump said he won’t extend the Aug. 1 deadline for countries to start paying reciprocal tariffs, signaling a firm stance after earlier suggesting flexibility for nations offering trade concessions.

In one recent round of letters, Trump announced new tariffs as follows: 25 percent on Japan, Kazakhstan, MalaysiaSouth Korea, and Tunisia; 30 percent on Bosnia and Herzegovina and South Africa; 32 percent on Indonesia; 35 percent on Bangladesh and Serbia; 36 percent on Cambodia and Thailand; and 40 percent on Burma (also known as Myanmar) and Laos.

In each letter, Trump noted that the tariffs might be lowered if countries open their markets and reduce non-tariff barriers, emphasizing that persistent trade deficits pose “a major threat” to U.S. economic and national security.

More recently, Trump sent another round of letters, noting that Algeria, Iraq, Libya, and Sri Lanka will each be charged a 30 percent tariff, Brunei and Moldova will face a 25 percent tariff, and the Philippines will face a 20 percent tariff.

The president has also announced that Canada will face 35 percent tariffs starting on Aug. 1.

Tyler Durden
Sat, 07/12/2025 – 15:10

Can Jay Powell Make It Through The Weekend?

Can Jay Powell Make It Through The Weekend?

Authored by Larry Kudlow via RealClearPolitics.com,

Is the Fed chairman, Jay Powell, going to make it through the weekend? There is talk that he is being forced to resign….

President Trump, of course, is on his case daily for not dropping interest rates in line with low inflation.

Late yesterday, the head of the Federal Housing Finance Agency that regulates Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and oversees the 11 federal home loan banks, William Pulte, issued a statement, saying: “I’m encouraged by reports that Jerome Powell is considering resigning. I think this will be the right decision for America, and the economy will boom.”

Yesterday, the Office of Management and Budget’s director, Russ Vought, condemned Mr. Powell for his gross mismanagement of what Mr. Vought calls the palace of Versailles. 

Mr. Vought said: “We saw Chairman Powell. He was too late to recognize inflation, and now he’s too late to lower rates. And the Fed has just mismanaged the institution. And we see that the extent to which they’ve been operating at losses for a number of years now is for the first time in their history.” 

He added: “And then you just see a very practical example when you go to the nation’s mall. You see the construction of this palace, in the words of one former official, upwards of $2.5 billion, massive cost overrun.”

And this $2.5 billion monstrosity of Mr. Powell’s is already over budget by $700 million.

Mr. Vought second-guessed Mr. Powell’s Senate testimony that there’s no VIP dining room, no new marble, no special elevators, no new water features, no bee hives, and no roof terrace garden in the Fed’s renovated office complex.

Mr. Vought noted that the Fed’s Taj Mahal is way out of compliance with the National Capital Planning Act.

Mr. Powell has long argued that he can’t be replaced except “for cause.”

Yet this kind of blatant financial mismanagement over the Fed’s new building and the renovations of the old building — mismanagement that Mr. Powell denied under oath — could well represent sufficient “cause” to force his resignation, or even be fired by Mr. Trump.

Meanwhile, economists are pointing out that the Fed is hemorrhaging cash as its interest expenses exceed interest taken in.

And their $6 trillion-plus bond portfolio is underwater by $1.1 trillion.

This has all the earmarks of the bankruptcy of the Silicon Valley Bank, that went under in March of 2023 — and almost pulled the financial system down with it.

So, now the question is: Can Mr. Powell even make it through the weekend?

Tyler Durden
Sat, 07/12/2025 – 14:00

Appeals Court Throws Out Plea Deal For Alleged 9/11 Mastermind Which Would Have Provided ‘Answers’

Appeals Court Throws Out Plea Deal For Alleged 9/11 Mastermind Which Would Have Provided ‘Answers’

America’s longest running terrorism court case looks to outlast the so-called Global War on Terror itself, as a divided federal appeals court on Friday issued a key decision on Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, the alleged mastermind of the September 11 attacks.

The court overturned a plea agreement that would have allowed him to avoid the death penalty by pleading guilty – but this also assures the case will not be resolved anytime soon.

One motive behind the plea deal, which had been negotiated for over two years by military prosecutors and the top Pentagon official overseeing Guantanamo Bay, was to allow Mohammed to avoid the death penalty and in return he and other accused terror plotters would provide answers to lingering questions from 9/11 victims’ families.

Via NY Times

This new ruling was issued by a panel of the US Court of Appeals in Washington DC and de facto halts efforts to find a speedier resolution to a case which has dragged on endlessly.

Judges Patricia Millett and Neomi Rao wrote in the decision: “Having properly assumed the convening authority, the Secretary [prior defense secretary Lloyd Austin] determined that the families and the American public deserve the opportunity to see military commission trials carried out. The Secretary acted within the bounds of his legal authority, and we decline to second-guess his judgment.”

However, defense lawyers have said that the plea agreement was already legally binding, and further that both a Guantanamo military judge and a military appellate panel backed that position.

Judge Robert Wilkins strongly dissented from the majority of the D.C. appeals court decision, blasting the move to overturn a military judge “stunning”.

Tyler Durden
Sat, 07/12/2025 – 13:25

Iran Could Recover Some Enriched Uranium Buried Deep At Isfahan, Israel Says

Iran Could Recover Some Enriched Uranium Buried Deep At Isfahan, Israel Says

A senior Israeli official cited in the BBC and NY Times has said that intelligence indicates much of Iran’s enriched uranium is buried at Isfahan, which was struck by US missiles during “Operation Midnight Hammer” on June 22.

The official appears to have been part of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s delegation to Washington this week, which involved several visits to the White House and meetings with President Trump. The words somewhat contradict the Trump admin position that everything was utterly destroyed – and this is coming from a close ally.

Maxar/Getty Images

The official described, as paraphrased by the BBC report, that “Iran may still be able to access enriched uranium stored beneath one of the three sites targeted by U.S. airstrikes last month.”

“In a briefing with American reporters, the official noted that while retrieving the uranium at the Isfahan facility would be very challenging, any attempt by Iran to do so would likely trigger further Israeli military action.”

Israel’s assessment currently indicates that the June US-Israeli attacks set back the Islamic Republic’s program by two years. Other foreign officials, including in Europe, believe it could just be a matter of months.

The White House has remained adamant that the enriched uranium stockpiles were completely “obliterated” – a word repeatedly used by Trump himself.

Iran’s president has conceded that while sites were “severely damaged” it remains that the Iranians cannot access stockpiles buried under the rubble. But hawks and critics will point to this potentially being a ruse:

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) head Rafael Grossi told CBS, the BBC’s US partner, that while the three targeted Iranian sites were “destroyed to an important degree”, parts are “still standing”.

“Frankly speaking, one cannot claim that everything has disappeared, and there is nothing there,” Mr Grossi said.

In an interview with conservative commentator Tucker Carlson published earlier this week, Iranian President Mahmoud Pezeshkian said that the facilities were “severely damaged”.

“Therefore we don’t have any access to them,” he said, adding that a full assessment is impossible for now.

Meanwhile the NY Times has further cited the same Israeli official to claim that Iran ramped up nuclear activity after September of last year:

The senior official also said that Israel had begun moving toward military action against Iran late last year after seeing what the official described as a race to build a bomb as part of a secret Iranian project. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the information.

The official said Israeli intelligence picked up the nuclear weapons activity soon after the Israeli Air Force killed Hassan Nasrallah, the longtime leader of Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militia in Lebanon. That observation prompted the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, to prepare for an attack with or without U.S. help.

A slew of other outlets have also picked up on the statements by the unnamed senior Israeli official…

Of course, it is impossible to vet these claims, and the statements are being issued by a country which is in an official state of war with Israel, so they should be assessed with the necessary critical context and lens.

Tyler Durden
Sat, 07/12/2025 – 12:15

Dubai’s Emirates Airline To Enable Crypto Payments

Dubai’s Emirates Airline To Enable Crypto Payments

By Amin Haqshanas of Cointelegraph

Dubai’s international airline Emirates signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Crypto.com to integrate Crypto.com Pay into the airline’s payment infrastructure, with implementation expected next year.

The signing ceremony took place in the presence of His Highness Sheikh Ahmed bin Saeed Al Maktoum, chairman and chief executive of Emirates Airline & Group, the airline announced on Wednesday.

The MoU was signed by Adnan Kazim, Emirates’ deputy president and chief commercial officer, and Mohammed Al Hakim, president of Crypto.com’s UAE operations.

“This strategic move is in line with Dubai’s vision to be at the forefront of financial innovation while at the same time providing our customers with greater flexibility and choice in how they transact with Emirates,” Kazim said.  

Beyond payment integration, the two companies will collaborate on promotional campaigns to raise awareness and drive user adoption once the service goes live.

Crypto.com Pay integration set for Q4 2025

A Crypto.com spokesperson confirmed to Cointelegraph that the integration is set for the last quarter of the year. “The initial phase will focus on technical readiness, compliance alignment, and customer experience mapping,” the spokesperson said.

Furthermore, Emirates and Crypto.com will determine whether the rollout will begin on select routes, regional markets, or through a global launch, with pilot phases likely to precede wider implementation.

The spokesperson also confirmed that crypto payments from customers will be converted instantly to fiat (AED) using real-time exchange rates at the point of transaction. “Emirates will not hold any cryptocurrency on its books; settlements will occur in AED, ensuring compliance and minimal FX exposure,” they said.

Crypto.com also said it continues to explore regional and international airline integrations as part of a broader travel and commerce strategy. “The goal is to build a universal crypto travel layer bringing seamless, secure, and compliant payment experiences to travelers across air, retail and hospitality sectors.”

Dubai eyes leadership in crypto

The integration comes amid Dubai’s push to lead in crypto, as the city seeks to establish itself as a primary hub for blockchain and digital asset projects.

Backed by regulatory clarity and a pro-innovation environment, several industries in the emirate, from real estate to telecommunications, have already opened their doors to cryptocurrency payments.

Earlier this year, Tether partnered with UAE-based Reelly Tech to expand the use of its USDt stablecoin in real estate transactions. The deal allows buyers to use USDt to purchase property through 30,000 Reelly Tech agents globally.

Last month, the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA), the financial regulator in charge of the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC), approved Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin. DIFC companies can now use the RLUSD stablecoin for various virtual asset services.

The Dubai Multi Commodities Centre free zone has attracted over 600 crypto companies, with more firms flocking to the Dubai International Financial Centre and One Central district as the country positions itself as a leader in digital finance.

Dubai eyes leadership in crypto

Dubai’s real estate market reached new highs in May, with sales totaling 66.8 billion dirhams (around $18.2 billion) across 18,700 transactions, a 44% increase in value year-on-year. The surge came amid an accelerating push into real estate tokenization.

In May alone, multiple initiatives, including a $3 billion RWA deal involving MultiBank Group, real estate giant MAG and blockchain infrastructure provider Mavryk, were launched by government and industry players.

On May 19, the Virtual Asset Regulatory Authority, Dubai’s crypto regulator, updated its guidelines to include provisions for real-world asset (RWA) tokenization. Lawyer Irina Heaver told Cointelegraph these rules give issuers and exchanges a clear path to launch and trade tokenized real estate assets

Tyler Durden
Sat, 07/12/2025 – 11:40

Watch: American Truckers United Issues Dire Warning On ‘Unsafe’ Highways Amid Flood Of Migrant Drivers, Crashes

Watch: American Truckers United Issues Dire Warning On ‘Unsafe’ Highways Amid Flood Of Migrant Drivers, Crashes

Shannon Everett of the trucking advocacy group American Truckers United (ATU) has been one of the most outspoken folks about the Biden-Harris regime’s role in the surge of migrant drivers with non-domiciled commercial driver’s licenses (CDLs). He warns the influx has transformed U.S. highways into a national security threat and a growing public safety crisis, citing multiple fatal crashes this year involving migrants behind the wheel of fully loaded 80,000-pound big rigs. 

This is an urgent wake-up call for every American,” Everett wrote on X, alongside a video warning about the hundreds of thousands of migrants operating big rigs with non-domiciled CDLs. He urged heightened situational awareness on the nation’s highways, citing concerns that lax licensing standards have put unqualified, non-English-speaking drivers behind the wheels of 80,000-pound rigs

He continued, “Our highways are no longer safe. Reckless immigration policies and weakened licensing standards have unleashed a deadly crisis on our roads.” 

Everett cited several crashes involving non-domiciled CDL drivers, including one in Austin, Texas, earlier this year that killed five Americans.

He said, “The pattern in these crashes is undeniable. Too many of these tragedies involve non-citizen truck drivers. Truck drivers who are unvetted, unqualified, untrained, and who are exploiting lax regulations because we have almost no enforcement in our industry.” 

You cannot let yourself or your loved ones be next. If you’re trapped in stalled traffic, don’t just sit there—stay vigilant. Watch the truckers behind you. Have an escape plan. Move your vehicle to the shoulder and be prepared to advance past the traffic if necessary. Most importantly, get out of harm’s way,” Everett warned.

Watch: Everett’s Warning To All Americans

ATU has previously noted that the Biden-Harris regime “bragged about bringing 876,000 new drivers into the market, effectively doubling the average annual output of new drivers.” 

And there’s more…

ATU has found that truck-involved incidents and fatalities have been on a steady rise since 2016, and the correlations with federal immigration policies under the previous administration saw a spike in non-domiciled CDLs.

The Trump administration has signaled it takes the issue seriously. Last month, President Trump—through the U.S. Department of Transportation—enforced the English Language Proficiency (ELP) rule to crack down on unvetted migrant drivers operating big rigs. 

Thank the sanctuary states for this mess! 

Meanwhile, ATU revealed that Walmart and Amazon displayed navigational signs at their trucking hubs in foreign languages! 

Catch up on the latest:

The dire warning to all Americans by ATU’s Everett is about heightened situational awareness while driving on the nation’s highways.

Tyler Durden
Sat, 07/12/2025 – 11:05

Q2-2025 Earnings Season Preview

Q2-2025 Earnings Season Preview

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Next week, the Q2-2025 earnings season will begin in earnest as a barrage of S&P 500 companies report, starting with the Wall Street money center banks on Tuesday and Wednesday. Since earnings drive the market by supporting investor expectations, what should investors expect? Let’s dig into the details.

Over the last few months, according to data from S&P Global, the Q2-2025 earnings estimates have declined from $234/share in the original March 2024 estimate to $220/share as of June 15th. That $14 drop in estimates is partially due to the impact of tariff concerns on corporate outlooks.

According to FactSet:

“Heading into the end of the quarter, analysts have reduced earnings estimates for S&P 500 companies for the second quarter more than average. However, the percentage of S&P 500 companies issuing negative earnings guidance for the second quarter is less than average. As a result, estimated earnings for the S&P 500 for the second quarter are lower today compared to expectations at the start of the quarter. In addition, the index is expected to report its lowest year-over-year earnings growth rate since Q4 2023 (4.0%).

In terms of estimate revisions for companies in the S&P 500, analysts have lowered earnings estimates for Q2 2025 by a larger margin than average. On a per-share basis, estimated earnings for the second quarter have decreased by 4.1% to date. This decline is larger than the 5-year average (-3.0%) and the 10-year average (-3.1%) for a quarter.”

Again, many of those negative revisions are tied to concerns over tariffs under the current Administration, and the lack of finalized “trade deals” keeps forward estimates in flux. However, as we move into Q3 and Q4 of this year, there should be sufficient resolutions to stabilize forecasts.

The macro-tailwinds of easing trade tensions, falling energy prices, and optimism over Fed rate cuts have helped equity markets return to new highs in June. However, some of those advances will be tested in the coming weeks, as there is a risk of earnings disappointment, particularly as we see continued weakness in the economic data. The Economic Composite Index (roughly 100 data points) has decreased sharply in the last two months. Historically, earnings track real economic activity, suggesting a risk of disappointment exists.

Why Estimates Are Being Cut More Sharply

There are three core drivers to explain the steeper-than-normal downward revisions in Q2-2025 earnings.

Rising trade risks: Trump’s tariff actions renewed mid‑year jitters. Industry groups and strategists at Goldman, Bank of America, and Citi warn tariffs may shave off ~1–2% EPS growth per 5pp increase in effective duty rates. While tariffs are on pause, that “pause” expires July 7th. We fully expect that pause to be extended into Q3, given the Administration has deals currently in progress. However, investors should potentially hedge against unforeseen problems later in the summer.

Weaker consumer spending: Our most significant concern for Q2-2025 earnings and the rest of the year is slowing economic growth, which will spill over into consumer spending. As discussed in “Consumer Spending Drives Earnings,” there is a high correlation between Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) and earnings. To wit:

“One of the better measures for developing a framework for future earnings growth is personal consumption expenditures (PCE), since they comprise nearly 70% of the economic equation. The annual percentage change in forward earnings tracks the yearly percentage change in PCE fairly closely.”

Given the recent softness in the employment data and the downturn in PCE, the risk to earnings is rising.

Lastly, the downturn in energy and materials earnings directly reflects economic weakness. The Q2-2025 earnings for the energy sector declined by ~19%, while materials fell by ~12% year‑over‑year. The decline in those two sectors is essential given their reflection of economic activity.

However, on the optimistic side, the Technology and Communications companies (particularly given their weight in the index) are buoying corporate earnings. Ongoing strong investment in AI and capex, particularly within the “Magnificent 7,” is expected to report strong earnings and revenue growth. As such, their Q2 guidance and commentary will likely offset some of the risk of spillover from trade and consumer dynamics.

Positioning For Earnings Season

At RIA Advisors, here is how we are positioning ahead of Q2 earnings reports.

After the strong run in asset markets from the April lows, markets are technically back to more overbought levels, with sentiment returning to “extreme greed.” Those levels open the door to a higher level of “disappointment” in earnings announcements than would otherwise be the case.

As such, we are looking to rebalance portfolio risk by reducing risk in areas with the highest degree of “disappointment potential” and somewhat raising cash levels. This gives us a hedge against downside risk, and cash to buy earnings “over reactions” in structurally advantaged sectors.

Our primary focus will be to:

(The following is not a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. This is strictly for educations and informational purposes only and a disclosure of RIA’s positioning.)

  • Focus on structurally advantaged sectors: Stick with AI heavyweights like Microsoft, Nvidia, and Alphabet. They carry forward earnings momentum, and guidance around AI spending could prompt positive sentiment . Conversely, avoid high-beta cyclical stocks, which may underperform if tariffs spark volatility.

  • Tilt toward defensive, dividend‑paying stocks: As equity valuations remain elevated, despite slowing economic forecasts, adding exposure to low‑volatility and dividend‑generating segments, like consumer staples or utilities, can add ballast. Our primary portfolio includes companies like PG, BRK.B, RTX, and V.

  • Watch guidance tone, not just numbers: Companies may retract or express uncertainty. Last quarter, ~4% of S&P 500 firms withdrew forward EPS commentary due to tariff uncertainty. In Q2 calls, examine the economic forecast from cyclical, discretionary, and staple companies for warnings or downward momentum beyond base estimates.

  • Expect upside surprises, but remain realistic: Historically, 75–77% of S&P 500 firms top EPS expectations, due to the deep cuts of estimates going into earnings season. However, with consensus estimates already cut deeply, there is a high potential for a higher-than-normal “beat rate,” especially in tech (MSFT, NVDA), healthcare (ABBV, LLY), and communications (META, GOOG).

  • Retain domestic vs. international exposure: The powerhouse of earnings growth remains the U.S. versus the rest of the world. With Central Banks cutting rates globally to offset sluggish economic growth, the backdrop of U.S. earnings will remain attractive to investors globally. This is why the U.S. has massively outperformed international markets over the last 15 years, and it is unlikely to change soon, given the dominance of AI by U.S. companies.

Conclusion

Q2-2025 earnings season reflects a more cautious narrative: earnings growth is decelerating, estimates have been cut more sharply, and company guidance is likely to follow suit. Yet underlying fundamentals remain solid, especially in the technology, communication, and defensive segments. Historically, positive surprises tend to outpace negativity, offering upside potential if macro headwinds remain stable.

However, our primary concern remains the slowing growth trend in the economic data. That trend, combined with rising delinquency rates, rising defaults, and declining consumption, all suggest that monetary policy is too restrictive and the Federal Reserve is likely behind on cutting rates. As discussed recently:

“This raises the danger of a policy mismatch: If the Fed waits for inflation that doesn’t arrive, it may keep real interest rates excessively high for too long, just as it kept them too low following the pandemic. The consequences could be severe.”

Next week, as earnings season kicks into high gear, investors should emphasize quality, weigh defensive income options, remain alert to guidance tone, and consider hedged exposure in reports. A well‑balanced approach, with a tilt toward AI‑led growth balanced with conservative positioning, will align risk/reward ahead of potentially market-moving announcements.

Trade accordingly.

Tyler Durden
Sat, 07/12/2025 – 10:30

Trump To Impose 30% Tariffs On Mexico, European Union

Trump To Impose 30% Tariffs On Mexico, European Union

President Trump on Saturday morning fired off two trade warning letters via Truth Social, threatening to impose 30% tariffs on all Mexican and European imports starting August 1. The warning to Mexico hinges on action to curb the flow of fentanyl and dismantle drug cartels, while the threat to Europe demands an end to long-standing trade imbalances driven by EU tariffs and non-tariff barriers. This caps off a week of letters sent to America’s top trade partners, with tariff threats used as a negotiation tool by the Trump administration to seal deals.

“Despite our strong relationship, you will recall, the United States imposed Tariffs on Mexico to deal with our Nation’s Fentanyl crisis, which is caused, in part, by Mexico’s failure to stop the Cartels, who are made up of the most despicable people who ever walked the Earth, from pouring these drugs into our country,” Trump said in the letter addressed to Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo. 

He continued, “Mexico has been helping me secure the border, BUT, what Mexico has done, is not enough. Mexico still has not stopped the Cartels who are trying to turn all of North America into a Narco-Trafficking Playground.” 

Here are the key points in the letter:

  • 30% tariff will apply to all Mexican imports unless action is taken.

  • Tariff waivers will be granted for companies that build or manufacture in the U.S.

  • If Mexico raises tariffs in retaliation, the U.S. will match them on top of the 30%.

  • Adjust tariffs if Mexico successfully confronts the cartels and halts fentanyl trafficking

Copy of the letter that was posted on Trump’s Truth Social:

The second letter Trump was addressed to Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, in which he informed Brussels that he would impose a 30% tariff on all EU products starting August 1, unless long-standing trade imbalances—driven by EU tariffs and non-tariff barriers—are addressed.

“The European Union, despite having one of our largest Trade Deficits with you. Nevertheless, we have decided to move forward, but only with more balanced and fair TRADE,” the president said. 

He emphasized:

  • The U.S. market is open and fair, but EU practices have created an unsustainable trade deficit.

  • The 30% tariff applies separately from any sectoral tariffs and will be higher for goods transshipped to avoid it.

  • No tariffs will be applied if EU companies manufacture within the U.S.

  • The EU must allow full market access to the U.S. or face higher tariffs.

  • Retaliatory EU tariffs will be met with additional levies.

Trump warned that this trade deficit with the EU is a “major threat to our Economy and, indeed, our National Security!” 

Copy of the letter that was posted on Trump’s Truth Social:

This past week, the Trump administration sent out two dozen trade warning letters to countries.

Let’s recap the week with the most important trade headlines:

In markets, crypto was the only asset class trading, with Bitcoin edging lower following the trade warning posts around 8:30 a.m. ET. Some selling pressure in BTC/USD had already emerged earlier, starting around 6:00 a.m. ET.

If no deals are reached by August 1, renewed trade tensions could roil global markets.

Tyler Durden
Sat, 07/12/2025 – 09:55

Youth Gang Terrorizes Small German Town, Vigilante Patrol Group Forms To Protect Children

Youth Gang Terrorizes Small German Town, Vigilante Patrol Group Forms To Protect Children

Via Remix News,

The small German town of Harsefeld is grappling with a severe breakdown of public order, as a youth gang’s reign of terror has led to hospitalizations, extortion, and drug dealing. The situation has become so desperate that citizens are being forced to form a vigilante patrol group, highlighting a perceived failure of the state to protect its own people.

What was once a tranquil Lower Saxon town has now become a hotbed of controversy after a youth gang’s actions led to the formation of the patrol group.

Videos of the gang in operation have shocked the town and led to national headlines in Germany. In one video, the suspects’ faces are blurred, but one teen is severely beating his victim. There are also apparently other videos the group has uploaded online, in what some believe is an effort to boast of their acts and intimidate others.

The gang has been active for at least six months, with incidents ranging from beatings and threats to near-fatal attacks at the train station. These are not acts of youthful exuberance but brutal violence, seemingly with no regard for human life.

The official response, so far, has been silence, denial, and victim blaming.

The extensive list of crimes—extortion, drug trafficking, and violent assaults—reads more like a major city crime report than a situation in a town of 14,000. Local media outlets, including the Stader Tageblatt and NDR, have reported on the crisis. In addition, national outlets Focus Magazine and Bild have reported on the story.

The police response has been criticized as dismissive, with authorities citing staffing shortages. The Harsefeld police station is reportedly closed intermittently, forcing emergency calls to be rerouted to Buxtehude.

This 15-kilometer distance means patrols often arrive long after perpetrators have fled. A police spokesperson’s statement, “We are responsible for everyone,” does not appear to hold up to scrutiny, as parents and citizens are forced to form their own patrol groups.

The police spokesperson, Rainer Bohmbach, labeled these patrol groups as “quite creepy” while simultaneously appearing unable to stop the violent thugs operating in the town.

“Yes, of course, we find that quite creepy. A vigilante group doesn’t help anyone. It’s more likely that we’ll end up in the realm of vigilantism,” said Bohmbach. He is warning against the formation of such groups.

School administrators and the youth welfare office have raised alarms about the gang, resorting to warning letters and calls for discussion groups and social workers, but when it comes to minors, legal action is often difficult in the German system.

One key perpetrator, a known repeat offender, reportedly even engaged in a “pleasant conversation” with the mayor before the holidays. The mayor, who has known the boy for years, expressed shock at the violence but chose to “listen calmly,” an approach that appears to have no effect.

Police are reportedly well aware of who the two gang leaders are, both of whom have been known since 2023, with approximately 15 reported crimes each — a number likely lower than the true figure due to victims’ fear of reporting.

Despite known perpetrators and clear video evidence, no court cases have been initiated. The official explanation: “Investigations are ongoing, but it’s taking time.”

Meanwhile, the victims are piling up in the small town, as they have in various other towns and cities across Germany.

This lack of action has driven citizens to form a vigilante group, conducting their own patrols and recording incidents — exactly what authorities publicly warn against. Yet, authorities say they lack the resources to combat the group.

The nationality and names of the suspects have not been released, as no court cases have been initiated. Even if convicted, both teens are minors, and their identities are unlikely to ever be released.

Read more here…

Tyler Durden
Sat, 07/12/2025 – 09:20

Ford Recalling 850,000 Vehicles For Fuel Pump Failure

Ford Recalling 850,000 Vehicles For Fuel Pump Failure

Ford is recalling over 850,000 vehicles in the U.S. due to a faulty low-pressure fuel pump that could fail and cause engine stalls, increasing crash risk, according to AP.

The recall includes various recent Ford and Lincoln models, such as the Bronco, Explorer, F-150, Aviator, and Navigator, according to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration.

AP writes that starting July 14, Ford will notify affected owners about the issue, though a fix is still in development. A second notice will be sent once the repair is available, which will be free of charge.

Ford just launched its new “Zero-Zero-Zero” summer sales event to ease upfront vehicle costs amid rising interest rates and growing tariff pressures.

The campaign—starting July 8—offers zero down payment, 0% interest for 48 months, and no payments for 90 days on most Ford and Lincoln models.

This initiative follows the “From America, For America” employee pricing strategy, which helped boost Q2 sales (Ford up 14.2%, Lincoln up 31%).

The move comes as tariffs have begun to impact Ford’s pricing. Vehicles like the Maverick, Mustang Mach-E, and Bronco Sport—built in Mexico—are now subject to a 25% import tariff, prompting Ford to raise prices on those models. Additionally, tariff-related increases in parts costs could affect other vehicles across Ford’s lineup.

Recall we wrote weeks ago that tariffs would cost auto consumers an extra $2000 per vehicle. 

General Motors and Ford have projected tariff-related hits of $5 billion and $2.5 billion, respectively, and plan to offset some of it through price hikes. This could result in around 1 million fewer cars sold in the U.S. over the next three years. AlixPartners sees a rebound, projecting U.S. auto sales to hit 17 million by 2030.

Tyler Durden
Sat, 07/12/2025 – 08:45