Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Key Takeaways

• After nine straight up weeks, the bull market pullback we flagged finally arrived, and it stopped cold at the 50-day moving average.

• The selloff reset an overbought tape without breaking trend. RSI fell from above 70 to the low 40s, and Thursday’s bounce came on broad participation.

• Our Money Flow Breadth Ratio ticked up to 60%, back in buy territory, and we’re holding equity exposure at 100%.

• The bigger risks haven’t gone anywhere: record margin debt, fading retail demand, and a 10-year Treasury that now out-yields the S&P 500.

• This sets up more upside for now. It does not erase the odds of a deeper correction this summer if forward earnings expectations crack.

Two weeks ago, after the S&P 500 logged its ninth consecutive weekly gain, we discussed that a bull market pullback was coming. It came. From the May 27 record near 7,621, the index slid 4.5% and bottomed almost exactly on its 50-day moving average before ripping back to close Friday at 7,431.46. That is not the opening act of a bear market. That is the kind of bull market pullback that resets sentiment and, more often than not, clears the runway for the next leg higher. The harder question is what happens after the bounce.

The Correction We Told You To Expect

Make no mistake, I have been warning about the potential for a pullback over the last few weeks and repeatedly discussed taking profits and rebalancing risk. As I wrote in “Two-Month Market Rally: What Comes Next,” a market that climbs for 9 straight weeks gets stretched, and stretched markets tend to mean-revert. The only real questions were the “when” and “how much.” We suggested a bull-market pullback of 3% to 5%; toward the 50-day moving average, would be most likely. However, a larger correction is still possible. As noted, the actual decline ran 4.5% peak to trough and found its floor exactly where trend-followers add rather than abandon.

Notably, the dip buyers showed up on cue. When the S&P probed the mid-7,200s on Tuesday and Wednesday of last week, the same crowd that has bought every dip since the April 2025 low stepped in again, and by Friday the index had clawed back roughly a quarter of the prior week’s 2.64% drubbing. That close at 7,431.46 leaves the larger uptrend fully intact, sitting about 2.5% below the high rather than careening away from it.

Crucially, the setup still favors the bulls, at least for now.

First, the damage was technical, not structural. The 14-day RSI ran above 70 at the late-May high and fell to the low 40s at this month’s lows before settling back near 53. In plain terms, the market burned off its overbought condition without violating the trend, which is textbook.

Second, the quality of the bounce mattered. Thursday’s 1.75% surge came on broad participation rather than three megacaps doing all the lifting, and broad thrusts off support tend to mark real lows instead of dead-cat bounces.

Third, our own money-flow work agrees. The Money Flow Breadth Ratio (MFBR) is a rules-based model that “systematically adjusts portfolio equity exposure in response to the direction and persistence of institutional capital flows.” We use this analysis to size equity exposure in portfolios, and the MFBR ticked up to 60% as of June 12 and sits back in buy territory after sliding to 55% the prior week. The trailing four-week net flow has swung sharply positive following a deeply negative stretch, which historically reads as a contrarian buy. We’ve held exposure at 100% since April 17, and this signal keeps us there.

“As of June 12, 2026, with the S&P 500 at 7,431.46, the Money Flow Breadth Ratio (MFBR) stands at 60% and rising. This places the indicator in BUY territory (60-70%), triggering a NEUTRAL signal. The prior week reading was 55%, representing a 10% decline over the trailing four weeks. The model currently recommends HOLDING exposure at 100%, a level that has remained since April 17, 2026 (8 weeks). This reflects a FLOW-OVERLAY OVERRIDE: the trailing 4-week net dollar flow has swung sharply positive (>$300B) after a deeply negative prior 4 weeks, a historically strong contrarian buy signal.” – Bull Bear Report June 13th

The map from here is simple. Overhead, the 20-DMA at 7,466 is the first hurdle, then the round 7,500 mark, then the 7,621 record. Below, the 50-DMA at 7,248 is the line in the sand, with the 38.2% retracement at 7,118 and the rising 200-DMA at 6,882 beneath it. Hold 7,248 through Wednesday’s Fed meeting, and this stays a routine shakeout inside an uptrend.

What Could Break The Trade This Summer

None of that means you switch off your risk management. As we warned in “Leadership Is Narrow” and again in “Market Correction Risk,” the ingredients for a deeper drawdown are quietly building underneath a rising tape. Three of them deserve your attention.

Start with leverage. FINRA margin debt hit a record $1.30 trillion in April, up better than a third in a year, and now runs near 4% of GDP against a long-run median closer to 1.5%. Measured against M2, it’s back near the peaks that preceded the 2000 and 2007 tops. Borrowed money cuts both ways. It is an accelerant, not a cushion.

Next, watch the retail bid. Vanda’s flow data shows single-stock retail net turnover rolling over into negative territory in recent sessions, even as prices grind higher. That divergence matters. When the buyer who powered this rally starts selling into strength, the marginal source of demand thins out right as the supply picture gets heavier.

Then there’s the cold math on bonds versus stocks. The 10-year Treasury now yields about 4.45%, while the S&P 500’s trailing earnings yield sits near 3.7%. For the first time in this cycle, a risk-free Treasury pays you MORE than the index earns. That flips the equity risk premium negative and hands every allocator a credible, paid-to-wait reason to trim equities into bonds.

Layer on the supply story as detailed in “Equity Supply Surge”: Alphabet’s $80 billion secondary, SpaceX’s $75 billion IPO, and a queue of mega-raises from OpenAI, Anthropic, and the hyperscalers mean the market has to absorb a wall of new paper. More shares chasing the same dollars is a persistent headwind, not a one-day shock. As we noted in “Parabolic Semiconductor Rally,” when the most prized names all rush the exit at once, it pays to ask who is selling.

How We’re Positioning

So how do we square a buy signal with a real list of worries? We hold exposure and manage risk simultaneously. Those two things aren’t in conflict. The MFBR keeps us invested because the weight of the evidence and a clean test of support still point higher. Bob Farrell’s fourth rule reminds us that exponential moves tend to run further than anyone expects and then correct violently. Markets like that never correct gently. Therefore, we keep trailing stops disciplined, we refuse to chase the SpaceX-fueled enthusiasm at the highs, and we watch 7,248 like a hawk.

The calendar adds a second reason for that discipline. We’re walking into the weakest stretch of the year. As I detailed in “Market Correction Risk: Why Summer 2026 Looks Risky,” the May-through-October window has produced an average S&P 500 gain of just 1.7% since 1950, compared with better than 7% in November through April. The old “sell in May” line gets mocked every spring by people who haven’t looked at the data. The data is one-sided.

Then stack the election cycle on top. 2026 is a midterm year, and midterm years are the weakest and most volatile leg of the four-year presidential cycle. Jeff Hirsch’s Stock Trader’s Almanac has tracked the pattern for decades, and the numbers are sobering. Going back to the early 1960s, the average intra-year drawdown in a midterm year runs around 17% to 18%. That is well above the roughly 13% you see in the other three years. Notably, volatility tends to build up ahead of the November vote as investors handicap the balance of power in Congress.

Here’s the part that keeps me constructive, though. That midterm weakness has historically been a setup, not an ending. The 12 months after a midterm election have delivered an average S&P 500 gain of more than 12%. Furthermore, the Dow has climbed by more than 45% on average from its midterm-year low to its pre-election-year high. So the same seasonal soft patch that turns a routine bull market pullback into a deeper summer correction has, time and again, been the launchpad for the next leg up. We manage risk now, NOT because the bull market is over. We do it because we want dry powder and a steady hand when the seasonal low shows up.

None of this is about going to cash and hiding. It’s about tilting the book so you can sit through a noisy summer and still have ammunition for the fall. Here’s the playbook we’re running.

Howard Marks said it best.

“The riskiest thing in markets is the belief that there is no risk.”

With high-yield spreads pinned near 300 basis points, the market is pricing almost none. That’s exactly the backdrop where this kind of playbook earns its keep. Stay invested, but keep one hand on the exit.

The catalyst that turns a healthy pullback into something deeper won’t be a single oil-soaked CPI print. It’ll be the moment forward earnings expectations start to roll over while valuations sit at the high end of history. We aren’t there yet. Watch the Fed on Wednesday, watch wages, and watch whether second-half earnings estimates hold. The trend is your friend right up until the day it isn’t. Our job between now and then is to stay invested without going blind.

What’s your read? Are you adding to this dip or trimming into strength? Does the gap between a bullish tape and a long list of risks have you second-guessing your own positioning? If so, that’s exactly the conversation worth having. Connect with our team, and let’s pressure-test your portfolio before the summer does it for you.

It’s not just Citadel that’s moving out of New York.

Apollo Global Management has chosen Austin, Texas, as its second headquarters, according to sources familiar with the decision. The firm, which manages about $1 trillion in assets, evaluated Austin, Miami, Palm Beach, and Nashville before CEO Marc Rowan selected Austin, according to Financial Times.

The new office is expected to host most future hiring as Apollo expands beyond its longtime New York base. While the decision has been communicated internally, it is not yet final.

Austin’s appeal includes its strong talent pipeline, growing tech ecosystem, quality of life, and business-friendly environment. Texas has increasingly attracted major financial and corporate employers, including JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, SpaceX, and ExxonMobil.

FT writes that Apollo has been broadening its U.S. footprint since the pandemic, opening major offices in Connecticut and Florida. The firm now employs more than 4,000 people, over double its 2020 headcount.

Although New York remains Apollo’s primary headquarters, the company has stated that most future growth is expected to occur in its second HQ. Austin reportedly also benefited from concerns among employees about limited private-school options in Miami.

Apollo’s decision highlights a broader trend reshaping the financial industry. As taxes, regulatory costs, and political uncertainty continue to rise in New York, firms are increasingly looking elsewhere for growth. Critics argue that Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s antagonistic rhetoric toward business and his support for higher taxes have reinforced concerns among executives and investors, accelerating the migration of talent and capital to states such as Texas and Florida.

For companies weighing where to expand, Austin’s pro-business environment and lower tax burden are becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

The SunZia Wind Project, the largest wind farm in the United States, is scheduled to kick off operations this month, roughly three years after construction activities began on the project, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in a June 12 statement.

“The wind farm, located in New Mexico, has a total net summer generating capacity of 3,650 megawatts (MW) and is composed of 916 wind turbines,” the EIA said.

“SunZia’s capacity is more than three times larger than the next two largest wind farms, Alta Wind in Southern California (1,098 MW) and Great Prairie in northern Texas (1,027 MW).”

Some of the turbines had already begun producing power and contributing to the electricity grid by April this year, during a testing phase. The wind farm, spread across three counties, is coming online after almost two decades of permitting and planning.

Once operational, much of the wind farm’s power will be exported to Southern California and Arizona.

According to Pattern Energy, which built the project, the wind farm and electricity transmission projects are estimated to generate $20.5 billion in economic benefits throughout the project’s life.

Local governments, private landowners, schools, and communities are estimated to receive $1.3 billion in direct payments.

In terms of employment, the project is calculated to have created more than 2,000 construction jobs.

The EIA said that once SunZia comes online, it will push up New Mexico’s net summer wind generating capacity from 3,997 to 7,647 MW. Wind power will account for 45 percent of the state’s energy capacity mix, followed by 19 percent each from solar and natural gas.

“To be able to export the power generated by this project, Pattern Energy also built the SunZia Transmission Project—a 550-mile high-voltage direct current transmission line that goes from the SunZia Wind Project site in central New Mexico to south-central Arizona,” the EIA said.

“Of the SunZia transmission line’s 3,021 MW of power capacity, 2,131 MW will be delivered and consumed in Southern California.”

According to a fact sheet from Pattern Energy, the SunZia wind farm was developed with a “deep commitment to environmental stewardship” and involved discussions with local, regional, and national conservation stakeholders.

The project will provide “clean power” to 3 million Americans annually. It will save more than 7 billion gallons of water per year compared to coal-fired power and avoid more than 13 million metric tons of carbon dioxide, equivalent to removing roughly 3 million cars from the road.

Curtailing Wind Power

The Trump administration has actively worked to remove incentives for wind power projects, citing concerns about energy security.

In July 2025, President Donald Trump signed an executive order directing the administration to end federal subsidies for wind and solar energy facilities.

Trump said in the order that these renewable energy sources make America dependent on foreign-controlled supply chains and threaten national security.

Wind and solar power tech rely on materials whose supply chains are controlled by China; for instance, lithium, graphite, cobalt, and manganese are critical to the storage batteries used in wind and solar projects. These rare-earth elements are crucial for the development of wind turbines.

The same month, the Department of the Interior implemented policy measures, such as restoring the congressional mandate to consider all uses of public land and waters equally, to end what it termed “special treatment” accorded to “unreliable energy sources” such as wind power. While fossil fuels can generate power at any time, sources such as wind depend on the weather.

In August 2025, Interior Secretary Doug Burgum signed an order to rein in wind and solar power projects. 

“One advanced nuclear plant … produces 33.17 megawatts (MW) per acre, while one offshore wind farm produces approximately 0.006 MW/acre, which is approximately 5,500 times less efficient than one nuclear plant,” the department said at the time.

Earlier this month, seven states, including New York and New Jersey, sued the Trump administration over a deal the federal government made with a French wind farm developer. The deal led to the cancellation of an offshore lease intended to develop wind farms and stalled New York’s offshore wind power plans.

“For more than a year, offshore wind has faced an unprecedented and unrelenting campaign of political interference despite billions in private investment, state commitments, and court rulings,” Liz Burdock, president of industry group Oceantic Network, said in a statement.

Meanwhile, solar power overtook coal in the United States’ electricity mix for the first ever month on record in May, energy think tank Ember said in a June 10 statement.

“Solar supplied a record 12.8 percent of US electricity, while coal fell to 12.2 percent, its fourth-lowest monthly share ever,” the company said.

“The share of coal generation in the US mix has nearly halved in the last five years, falling from 19.7 percent in May 2021 to 12.2 percent in May 2026. In contrast, solar power’s share of the mix more than doubled from 5.4 percent to 12.8 percent over the same period.”

An LNG carrier successfully passed through the Strait of Hormuz early on Monday, the first tanker carrying energy products to clear the chokepoint since the U.S. and Iran announced a deal to reopen the Strait later this week, according to OilPrice.com

While tanker owners and operators remain cautious about rushing to send vessels to the area or having the ones inside the Persian Gulf move quickly toward Hormuz, one LNG tanker passed through the Strait today, carrying LNG to India.

The LNG tanker Disha cleared Hormuz and is currently in the Gulf of Oman, ship-tracking data on MarineTraffic showed. The tanker had loaded LNG from Qatar’s Ras Laffan in early March, just when the Gulf state halted LNG production and exports amid the closed Strait of Hormuz and Iranian missile hits on its LNG infrastructure at Ras Laffan.

The first LNG carrier to transit the Strait of Hormuz following the announcement of the US-Iran MOU.

Qatari LNG cargo is heading to India

Map form @Kpler https://t.co/b3t6IWgbGx pic.twitter.com/W44b8SgYSS

— Anas Alhajji (@anasalhajji) June 15, 2026

The tanker is now en route to India, a source close to the matter told Reuters on Monday. 

India has had several LNG tankers from Qatar move through the Strait of Hormuz in the past months, after securing and negotiating corridors with Iran. 

Now the tentative U.S.-Iran deal and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could ease the traffic congestion and allow more tankers to head to the Middle East to pick up supplies. If the deal holds.

That said, tanker owners and operators await clearance to proceed and are not rushing to test the passage until they have assurances it is safe to do so.

“While we are aware of signs of progress towards a ceasefire, our policy remains unchanged; we will only resume navigation once safety has been fully confirmed,” a spokesperson for Japan’s Mitsui O.S.K. Lines told Reuters on Monday. 

According to MarineTraffic, vessel activity through the Strait of Hormuz continues, but traffic patterns remain uneven and visibility remains limited: 29 verified vessel crossings were recorded between 10 and 14 June, covering crude, refined products, LPG, chemicals, methanol, and general cargo movements. Activity was concentrated on 11 and 12 June, while directional flows remained imbalanced: 23 crossings moved west-to-east, compared with six in the opposite direction.

Additionally, route transparency also remains a key issue, with 18 crossings, or around 62%, classified as Dark or Unknown Route. Two sanctioned vessels were also identified during the period.

Strait of Hormuz traffic remains uneven

Vessel activity through the Strait of Hormuz continues, but traffic patterns remain uneven and visibility remains limited. According to #MarineTraffic data, 29 verified vessel crossings were recorded between 10 and 14 June, covering crude,… pic.twitter.com/SXkofITV5Y

— MarineTraffic (@MarineTraffic) June 15, 2026

As Bloomberg notes, two major oil product shippers and a large vessel management firm remain cautious about sailing in the Middle East, even with the US and Iran reaching an interim peace agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Tanker owner Hafnia said the situation remains fluid, and that “to prepare transits, any alleged reopening must be supported by verified security conditions on the ground”

“Hafnia will only resume transits once there is sufficient confidence in the security environment”

Ship owner Torm meanwhile said it will “carefully assess the situation and resume transits when we consider it safe and responsible to do so”
Jesper Kristensen, CEO of Synergy Marine Group, which manages more than 700 vessels, said that “while the announcement is encouraging, sustained stability and predictability over the coming days will matter.”

“It remains too early to draw firm conclusions,” he added.

Finally, as Lloyds List notes, shipowners rushing to reposition vessels and markets are rallying, yet insurers for now are holding firm on high war‑risk premiums, insisting on ‘solid evidence’ of lasting safety before lowering rates.

Industry bodies warn that mine clearance and a return to the formal Traffic Separation Scheme are essential, as Iran’s blockade has permanently altered regional risk and demonstrated its leverage over the strait.

While a pause in hostilities will free stranded mariners and boost tanker and bulk markets, the sector sees this as a fragile reprieve rather than a return to normality, with elevated risk now embedded in long‑term decision‑making.

Commenting on the situation, a senior US official said that traffic in the Strait of Hormuz will see a significant increase in one to two weeks from now, adding that “the flow of traffic will take some time to improve due to mines in the strait.”

After 107 days and a seemingly endless number of false dawns, we finally have a deal between the US and Iran to end the war and open the Strait of Hormuz. It was announced on Sunday afternoon – Trump’s birthday, shortly before futures opened for trading and ahead of today’s Iran game in the World Cup – and the MoU will be signed in Switzerland on Friday.

According to statements carried by Iranian state-affiliated media, the agreement includes a phased lifting of US sanctions on Iranian oil exports, the unfreezing of roughly $12bn in overseas assets, and a commitment to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days (after mine clearing) alongside the removal of the US naval blockade. The deal also sets out a 60-day negotiation window on a broader accord, including constraints around Iran’s nuclear programme, where Tehran is expected to commit to maintaining its current status and not pursuing nuclear weapons. The US hasn’t been so explicit and whilst the deal is very good news for markets it looks like tough conversations will have occur in the 60-day window to ensure the peace is sustainable. As an example, the Senate needs to approve any extensive sanction relief for Iran. 

The other major story is the decision late on Friday from the US government to issue an export control directive forcing Anthropic to restrict access to its most advanced models, Fable 5 and Mythos 5, released to great global acclaim last week, to US nationals only, citing undefined national security concerns. In practice, because it is operationally difficult to separate users by nationality, Anthropic opted to suspend access to these models entirely on a global basis. The move marks one of the first instances of the US applying export controls not just to AI hardware (e.g. semiconductors) but directly to frontier models themselves, reflecting a growing view of AI as a strategic, dual use asset.

Clearly the export control may only be temporary as the cited jailbreak risk is examined and rectified quickly. This is probably the most likely outcome. However, if it longer-term, and more strategic from the US government, it’s not great news for US tech firms or for those assuming breakneck speed of AI adoption. US tech firms require a global marketplace to justify their huge investments so far. In addition, global enterprise would want to ensure any models they purchase are usable, especially for business-critical operations. You can’t rely on something that could be switched off. So all eyes on what Anthropic and the US government agree as the next step.

Outside of Iran and AI, central banks will dominate the global agenda in the coming week, with key policy decisions across the Fed, BoJ and BoE alongside important inflation and activity data.

The primary focus will be the United States and Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, which marks the first under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. The leadership transition introduces a higher-than-usual degree of uncertainty around both policy signalling and communication style. While an immediate policy shift is unlikely, the meeting will be closely scrutinized for early indications of how Warsh intends to reshape the Fed’s framework, particularly given his stated ambition for a broader “regime change”.

In terms of the statement, a modest upgrade to the labor market assessment appears likely, reflecting steady job growth and a broadly stable unemployment rate. More importantly, the guidance language could shift meaningfully. Warsh has been openly critical of heavy reliance on forward guidance, so the Committee may lean towards a more neutral, data-dependent formulation. This would effectively remove any residual easing bias and reopen the possibility of further tightening should inflation dynamics warrant it. Any such adjustment would be interpreted as a recalibration towards optionality rather than a firm directional signal.

Beyond the headline statement, attention will turn to the Summary of Economic Projections. The distribution of rate expectations may shift upwards, with 4 or 5 policymakers signalling the potential for hikes into 2026 and beyond. This would likely nudge the median path higher across the projection horizon and reinforce the idea that the Fed is not yet comfortable declaring victory on inflation. DB’s economists note that Warsh may not submit dots which would reflect his views on forward guidance. Revisions to inflation forecasts, particularly for the outer years, will also be closely examined for evidence of more persistent price pressures. At the moment DB  economists expect core PCE for 2027 to be raised by a tenth to 2.3%.

However, the most revealing element of the meeting may be Warsh’s press conference. His prior remarks suggest he will likely place less emphasis on near-term data fluctuations and explicit forward guidance, instead favoring a broader narrative around structural forces such as productivity and technological change. While this could temper the immediate hawkish interpretation, markets may test whether this framing is sufficient to justify patience in the face of still-elevated inflation. Just as important will be any early signals on communication reform—whether through changes to the dot plot, adjustments to the SEP, or a broader rethink of how the Fed conveys uncertainty. So a fascinating meeting to look forward to.

In terms of US data, the focus will be on May retail sales due Wednesday, and our US economists expect a +0.5% MoM rise in the headline (same as in April). Industrial production is due today (DB forecast is a +0.1% MoM increase, down from +0.7% in April) and there will be several housing indicators out this week as well. US markets will be on holiday for the Juneteenth National Independence Day on Friday.

Outside the US, central bank activity remains heavy. In Europe, decisions are due from the Riksbank and a cluster of Thursday meetings including the Bank of England, Swiss National Bank and Norges Bank. In the UK, the BoE is expected to keep rates unchanged, with attention focused on the vote split (expectations for 7-2) and any evolution in guidance against a backdrop of still-sticky inflation. Incoming UK data, particularly CPI (Wednesday), labour market indicators (Thursday) and retail sales (Friday), will provide important context for the policy outlook. Meanwhile, euro area attention will also be shaped by ongoing commentary from ECB officials and sentiment indicators such as the German ZEW survey (tomorrow).

Political developments will also be in focus, with the G7 leaders meeting early in the week (today through Wednesday) followed by the European Council summit (Thursday-Friday).

In Asia, the Bank of Japan meeting (tomorrow) stands out, with expectations for a further rate increase as part of its gradual normalization process. Japanese inflation data later in the week (Friday) will help gauge whether underlying price momentum continues to justify policy tightening. In China, their monthly activity data tomorrow covering industrial production and retail sales will provide an updated read on the growth trajectory, with expectations for a modest improvement after recent softness.

Elsewhere in the region, the Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to remain on hold (tomorrow), while New Zealand’s GDP release (Wednesday) will offer further insight into the strength of its economic recovery.

Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day snapshot of key events

Monday June 15

• Data: US June Empire manufacturing index, NAHB housing market index, May industrial production, manufacturing production, capacity utilisation, Germany May wholesale price index, Italy April trade balance, general government debt, Eurozone April industrial production, trade balance, Canada May housing starts, April manufacturing sales
• Central banks: ECB’s Lagarde, Cipollone, Nagel, Pereira and Kocher speak
• Other: G7 leaders’ summit (through June 17)

Tuesday June 16

• Data: US May housing starts, building permits, import price index, export price index, June New York Fed services business activity, China May retail sales, industrial production, investment, home prices, Germany June Zew survey, Eurozone June Zew survey, Canada May existing home sales, April international securities transactions
• Central banks: BoJ decision, RBA decision, ECB’s Lane, Sleijpen and Escriva speak
• Auctions: US 20-yr Bond (reopening, $13bn)

Wednesday June 17

• Data: US May retail sales, pending home sales, April business inventories, UK May CPI, RPI, PPI, April house price index, Japan May trade balance, April core machine orders, New Zealand Q1 GDP
• Central banks: Fed decision, Riksbank decision, ECB’s Sleijpen speaks

Thursday June 18

• Data: US June Philadelphia Fed business outlook, May leading index, April total net TIC flows, initial jobless claims, UK April average weekly earnings, unemployment rate, May jobless claims change, Italy April current account balance, ECB April current account, Eurozone April construction output, Canada May industrial product price index, raw materials price index
• Central banks: BoE decision, SNB decision, Norges Bank decision, ECB’s Kocher, Nagel, Cipollone, Lane and Escriva speak
• Auctions: US 5-yr TIPS (reopening, $24bn)
• Other: European Council summit (through June 19)

Friday June 19

• Data: UK June GfK consumer confidence, May retail sales, public finances, Japan May national CPI, Germany May PPI, Canada April retail sales
• Central banks: ECB’s Lane, Escriva and Cipollone speak, BoJ minutes of the April meeting
• Other: US Juneteenth holiday

* * *

Looking at just the US, the key economic data releases this week are the import prices report on Tuesday and the retail sales report on Wednesday. The June FOMC meeting is on Wednesday. The post-meeting statement will be released at 2:00 PM ET, followed by Chairman Warsh’s press conference at 2:30 PM.

Monday, June 15 

• 08:30 AM Empire State manufacturing index, May (consensus 13.2, last 19.6)
• 09:15 AM Industrial production, May (GS +0.1%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.7%); Manufacturing production, May (GS +0.1%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.6%); Capacity utilization, May (GS 76.1%, consensus 76.2%, last 76.1%): We estimate industrial production edged up by 0.1% in May, reflecting increases in auto and oil and gas production, but a decline in natural gas production. We estimate capacity utilization was unchanged at 76.1%.
• 10:00 AM NAHB housing market index, June (consensus 37, last 37)

Tuesday, June 16 

• 08:30 AM Import price index, May (consensus +0.8%, last +1.9%); Export price index, May (consensus +0.6%, last +3.3%)
• 08:30 AM Housing starts, May (GS -1.5%, consensus -2.0%, last -2.8%) ; Building permits, May (consensus -0.2%, last +4.4%)

Wednesday, June 17 

• 08:30 AM Retail sales, May (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.5%, last +0.5%); Retail sales ex-auto, May (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.5%, last +0.7%); Retail sales ex-auto & gas, May (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.5%);Core retail sales, May (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.5%): We estimate nominal core retail sales increased 0.2% in May (ex-autos, gasoline, and building materials; month-over-month SA), reflecting a continued solid signal from alternative data but potential payback after several months of outsized increases. On an inflation-adjusted basis, we forecast a 0.3% increase in the core; the relevant deflator in the PCE price index likely declined 0.1% in May. We estimate nominal headline retail sales increased 0.4%, reflecting higher gasoline prices.
• 10:00 AM Pending home sales, May (GS +2.0%, consensus +1.0%, last +1.4%)
• 02:00 PM FOMC statement, June 16-17 meeting: As discussed in our FOMC preview, at its June meeting, the first under new Chairman Kevin Warsh, the FOMC is likely to keep the funds rate unchanged at 3.50-3.75% and drop the previous forward guidance suggesting cuts. We expect the median dot to show no change to the funds rate in 2026, with three participants projecting a hike this year. We expect the median dot to still show two cuts eventually, most likely one in each of 2027 and 2028. We assume that Chairman Warsh will not submit dots in light of his past criticism of forward guidance, but we are not sure. The economic projections for 2026 are likely to show slightly lower GDP growth and unemployment, and much higher headline and core inflation, but we only expect a small increase in the inflation projections for 2027.

Thursday, June 18 

• 08:30 AM Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, June (GS 5.0, consensus 10.0, last -0.4)
• 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended June 13 (GS 225k, consensus 225k, last 229k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended June 6 (consensus 1,785k, last 1,795k)

Friday, June 19 

• Juneteenth National Independence Day. NYSE will be closed. SIFMA recommends bond markets also remain closed.

Source: DB, Goldman

Despite strong ISM Manufacturing data, US Industrial Production disappointed in May, rising just 0.1% MoM (vs +0.3% exp), but April’s print was revised up to +0.9% MoM. Put together, that lifted the YoY rise in industrial production to +1.67% – its highest since Nov 2025…

Manufacturing excluding motor vehicles and parts was also flat in May, according to the Fed report.

Mining output, which includes energy extraction, increased 1.3%.

Utilities output fell.

US Manufacturing production was unchanged in May (below the 0.3% rise expected), but thanks to an upward revision, the YoY rise was +1.4%, the highest since Nov 2025…

May’s flat-line comes after four months of gains to start the year.

The data showed a split between durable goods manufacturing, which continued to advance, and nondurable goods manufacturing, which declined.

That decrease reflected a pullback in output for petroleum and coal products, plastics and rubber, and textiles.

And finally, on the bright side, Capacity Utilization continues to rise, now at its highest in a year…

The report is somewhat at odds with signals from recent surveys, which have indicated a pickup in activity amid customer stockpiling induced by the war, rising defense-related orders and the ongoing data center buildout.

Monday’s figures may be a sign that surging costs are starting to bite after a separate report last week showed prices received by producers rose in May from a year earlier at the fastest pace since 2022.

Taken all the above, we see this as favoring the doves very modestly.

Submitted by QTR’s Fringe Finance

One of my favorite contrarian analysts to read posted a great thread this week noting what he sees as one of the most overlooked risks facing U.S. equities in 2026.

Gordon Johnson argues that an unprecedented wave of equity issuance could overwhelm available investor capital. In a great thread on X, Johnson, of GLJ Research, argued that investors should not interpret the current IPO boom as a sign of market strength.

Instead, he contends that history suggests record issuance periods often occur near major market peaks, when companies and insiders are most eager to sell stock into highly favorable conditions.

“This chart should stop you cold in your tracks.”

— Gordon Johnson, GLJ Research

His argument begins with a striking statistic. According to Johnson, 2026 U.S. IPO proceeds for operating companies are on pace to reach roughly $200 billion, exceeding the combined totals of both 1999 and 2000 during the dot-com era and far surpassing the approximately $119 billion raised during the speculative peak of 2021.

Rather than viewing that figure as bullish, Johnson sees it as a warning signal. In his view, record levels of stock issuance have historically coincided with excessive optimism and have often preceded periods of poor market performance.

Johnson argues that the headline IPO figures actually understate the scale of what is occurring. IPOs represent only one category of equity issuance. He notes that companies are also raising capital through follow-on offerings, at-the-market programs (ATMs), and secondary share sales.

We all know about the large AI-related equity raises that have been announced over the last two weeks: Alphabet’s $84.75 billion offering, Meta’s proposed multi-tens-of-billions stock raise, Oracle’s roughly $20 billion equity component within its broader financing plan, and Super Micro Computer’s $7 billion equity and equity-linked financing.

He argues that when these are added to the IPO pipeline, the total amount of stock being sold to investors becomes significantly larger than the official IPO statistics suggest:

With SpaceX, then OpenAI, then Anthropic stacking up, the pipeline points to ~$100B/month hitting the tape over the next 3–4 months. Now the only question that matters: who absorbs it?

Here’s the cash on the other side. US personal savings rate: 2.6% of ~$17.93T disposable income. That’s ~$39B/month of new savings — for the ENTIRE country.

You cannot soak up ~$100B/month of stock with ~$39B/month of cash. The math doesn’t math.

Put it in scale. ~$100B/month of issuance ≈ the entire US savings rate (~$1T/yr). SpaceX alone ~$80B. Then OpenAI. Then Anthropic. Then what? This doesn’t “attract” capital. It DRAINS the market of cash — one mega-deal at a time.

The heart of Johnson’s thesis centers on a basic supply-and-demand question: where will the money come from?

His broader point is that equity issuance does not magically create demand. Instead, he argues that large offerings require investors to redirect existing capital. Every dollar committed to a new IPO or secondary offering is a dollar that cannot be deployed elsewhere in the market. Under this framework, mega-deals do not attract new money so much as compete for a limited pool of available capital, potentially draining liquidity from existing stocks.

Johnson believes many investors are currently positioned for a strong second half of 2026, expecting enthusiasm surrounding artificial intelligence and high-profile technology offerings to drive markets higher. He takes the opposite view. In his analysis, the sheer volume of stock supply could become a headwind for equity prices. When supply grows faster than demand, he argues, prices often become the mechanism that restores balance.

Johnson notes that, with regard to the SpaceX IPO, certain institutional barriers appear to have been lowered ahead of the offering. Specifically, he points to Fidelity’s reported reduction of account minimum requirements and Nasdaq’s decision to shorten the waiting period before index eligibility. Johnson sees these changes as evidence that market participants are attempting to broaden the pool of potential buyers ahead of what could become one of the largest IPOs in history.

• Morningstar Just Issued The Most Bearish SpaceX Valuation Yet

• Skeptics Step Back From SpaceX

• The SpaceX IPO May Be The AI Bubble’s Final Test

Johnson argues that if SpaceX enters major indexes shortly after listing, passive investment vehicles could be forced to purchase large amounts of stock regardless of valuation. He estimates that index funds tracking the Nasdaq 100 may eventually need to buy tens of billions of dollars worth of shares. In his interpretation, sophisticated investors may seek to position themselves ahead of that demand by raising cash before the IPO and purchasing shares after index-related buying begins.

Johnson describes this as distribution rather than wealth creation.

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He argues that history offers several examples in which insiders used periods of intense investor enthusiasm to sell stock at elevated valuations. He specifically references the dot-com boom of 2000 and the SPAC-driven speculation of 2021 as periods when large amounts of equity were sold to public investors shortly before significant market declines.

Underlying the entire thread is Johnson’s central historical claim: large-scale equity issuance has consistently been a bearish signal for stocks. He points to the record issuance environment of 2021, which was followed by weakness later that year and a severe bear market in 2022. While he acknowledges that today’s circumstances are different in many respects, he believes the relationship between supply and demand remains unchanged.

For Johnson, the key question facing investors is not whether high-profile companies such as SpaceX, OpenAI, or Anthropic are exciting businesses. Rather, it is whether the market has sufficient capital to absorb an extraordinary amount of new stock issuance without putting pressure on existing asset prices.

His conclusion is straightforward: investors should approach the coming wave of offerings with caution. Record issuance, in his view, is not evidence of unlimited demand. It may instead be a sign that companies and insiders believe current market conditions are an attractive time to sell.

—

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This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I may or may not own names I write about and are watching. Sometimes I’m bullish without owning things, sometimes I’m bearish and do own things. Just assume my positions could be exactly the opposite of what you think they are just in case. If I’m long I could quickly be short and vice versa. I won’t update my positions.

As of May 20, 2026 I personally no longer actively trade (read my story here). My investing/saving is done by recurring contributions mostly to sector ETFs and a few select equities, trusted third parties who oversee my accounts, and advisors. Such advisors or funds, through individual equities, options, index funds, mutual funds, ETFs, or other securities, may have positions in, exposure to, or holdings of names mentioned herein that I know nothing about. Basically, via index funds, ETFs and individual equities it is possible I could own, have exposure to, or not own anything at any point. As of the same date, May 20, 2026, in an attempt to lead a healthier lifestyle, I’ve also excluded myself from fantasy sports, sports betting, online and in-person casinos and prediction markets.

And all positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice and at any point I can be long, short or neutral on any position. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. If you see numbers and calculations of any sort, assume they are wrong and double check them. I failed Algebra in 8th grade and topped off my high school math accolades by getting a D- in remedial Calculus my senior year, before becoming an English major in college so I could bullshit my way through things easier.

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Summary:

• Vice President JD Vance Begins Optics Roadshow to Boost Investor Confidence On Deal 
• Iran Offers 60-Day Toll-Free Hormuz Transit As 100s Of Ships Await Reopening

VP Vance

Not even 24 hours after President Trump declared a peace deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and just 30 minutes before New York futures opened Sunday evening, the administration already had Vice President JD Vance beginning a media roadshow to calm investor nerves and boost confidence.

Vance began the Monday roadshow on CNBC, providing more details on the U.S.-Iran deal, as uncertainty is the market’s worst fear.

Vance said the U.S.-Iran deal is moving ahead despite what he called MSM “misreporting.”

“The agreement is fundamentally built around a two-step verification process,” Vance told the outlet, adding that Israel will have a seat at the table. Vance also stated that all Iranian government factions are represented in the talks, with several Iranian representatives expected at Friday’s signing ceremony.

On the Hormuz maritime chokepoint, Vance said the strait is already seeing increased traffic and is expected to remain open toll-free over the long term, not just temporarily. He added that Iran would need resources to rebuild, but those resources would not be available without a nuclear deal.

Summary of discussion via CNBC: 

Vice President JD Vance on Monday said after the U.S. and Iran struck a preliminary deal that there are “a lot” of details that remain to be ironed out, but he expressed confidence that America has “all the cards” in subsequent talks.

The agreement reached Sunday would extend the U.S.-Iran ceasefire for 60 days and set up a framework for future negotiations about Tehran’s nuclear program and other key issues.

The text of the preliminary deal has yet to be released. Vance, on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” Monday morning, said the deal’s two major prongs are reopening the Strait of Hormuz and clinching a long-term commitment that Iran will never develop a nuclear weapon.

He indicated that if Iran abides by the deal’s commitments, it will be rewarded with loosened economic sanctions or other barriers, allowing Tehran “to be reinvited into the world economy.” 

Vance is also expected to join CBS Mornings to discuss the U.S.-Iran peace deal. It is likely that Fox Business and other outlets will follow, as the administration must repair any political damage from four months of war with Iran, which created uncertainty on Wall Street and sent the national average for gasoline prices above $4 per gallon for 2.5 months.

VIEWER ALERT: @VP Vance joins @CBSMornings 🌞 just after 8am ET to discuss the emerging U.S.-Iran deal.

— Ed O’Keefe (@edokeefe) June 15, 2026

Let the roadshow begin… 

Iran Offers 60-Day Toll-Free Hormuz Transit As 100s Of Ships Await Reopening

The U.S. and Iran reached an interim agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday evening, just 30 minutes before New York futures opened, with officials from both countries set to meet in Switzerland on Friday to formally sign the peace deal.

According to Iranian outlet Fars, the U.S.-Iran deal reportedly includes a 60-day toll-free window for vessels. After that period, if a more permanent deal is agreed upon, Tehran may seek to monetize the Hormuz chokepoint by charging commercial vessels for “services” tied to safety, navigation, environmental protection, and insurance.

Traffic on the Strait remains light on Monday morning, with hundreds of tankers waiting for the Hormuz waterway to officially reopen by the end of the week. But LNG tanker Disha did not wait for the formal opening and made a dash to exit the strait early Monday.

There are nearly 300 loaded vessels idling in the Persian Gulf, while a similar number of empty ships are waiting in the Gulf of Oman to return to export terminals. Another 250 ballast vessels inside the Gulf are ready to pick up cargoes if outbound flows resume.

The reopening could release millions of barrels of trapped oil and restart LNG flows, but normalization of energy flows back to pre-war levels could take many months, if not quarters, and for Qatar’s sake, years.

“From the bridge and the engine room where we’re sitting, right now it looks very different to what the headlines may say,” said Angad Banga, CEO of maritime conglomerate The Caravel Group, which owns Fleet Management Limited, one of the world’s largest ship management companies.

Banga told Bloomberg that it has several crews trapped in the Persian Gulf area, adding, “We’ve seen positive signals before, and I think ultimately what matters is what holds.”

Anoop Singh, global head of shipping research at Oil Brokerage Ltd, told the outlet, “Shipowners are on a risk spectrum — the Japanese, Koreans and Chinese are less open to high risk, while the Greeks have a different appetite — so we may see some people gearing up.”

Singh noted, “But by and large the rest of the market is still seeking more details and assurance before proceeding.”

Beyond the shipping industry, on Wall Street, UBS economist Arend Kapteyn told clients earlier this morning that “the test will be how quickly and to what extent the Strait of Hormuz reopens. Early indications suggest this may depend on Iran clearing naval mines over an initial 30-day period. But taken at face value, the news should be supportive for risk assets, pushing yields, oil and the US dollar lower, while equities move higher.”

Latest Hormuz trends via Kepler Cheuvreux shipping analyst Axel Styrman:

Daily arrivals at the Strait of Hormuz in 2026

Global trade & capacity trapped/waiting as of 22 May

Daily arrivals, Strait of Hormuz, # of ships per segment

Crude Exports and destination via the Strait of Hormuz

LNG Exports and destination via the Strait of Hormuz

LPG exports and destination via the Strait of Hormuz

Shipping Stocks To Watch

Professional subscribers can read much more about the Hormuz chokepoint on our new Marketdesk.ai portal.