73.7 F
Chicago
Monday, August 17, 2026
Home Blog Page 132

Could The Government Use Tax Dollars To Bail Out Bitcoin?

Could The Government Use Tax Dollars To Bail Out Bitcoin?

 Submitted by QTR’s Fringe Finance

There was a time when Bitcoin’s biggest selling point was that it existed outside the financial system. No governments. No central banks. No bailouts. No “too big to fail.” It was supposed to be the antidote to everything that happened in 2008. In fact, I once argued that another 2008 is what could standardize bitcoin.

Fast forward fifteen years, and we’ve somehow reached the point where I’m asking myself whether the last remaining bailout for crypto might actually be…the U.S. government. Think about how unbelievably sickening that would be. It’s the terminus I kept arriving at yesterday while thinking about the only way Strategy would be able to survive if Bitcoin continued getting decimated from these prices. And sadly, the idea isn’t really unimaginable given our current administration’s ties with crypto.

Yesterday I wrote that Strategy’s new capital framework effectively buys the company time. And to be fair, it does. Management rolled out dedicated cash reserves, formal dividend policies, billions of dollars in buyback authorizations, and what at least appears to be a more disciplined approach to capital allocation.

But none of those changes alter the one variable that ultimately matters: Bitcoin’s price. Everything rests on the price of Bitcoin, from Strategy’s trajectory as a public company, to some of Bitcoin’s biggest and most well known advocates using it as a gauge as to when they would admit defeat on the long thesis.

Strategy has now openly acknowledged that Bitcoin is no longer untouchable. For years, Strategy built its identity around buying Bitcoin and never selling it. Now it has explicitly stated that those holdings can be monetized if necessary to fund dividends, replenish reserves, service obligations, or support buybacks. If Bitcoin keeps climbing, nobody will care. If Bitcoin starts falling hard, suddenly everyone will.

Selling Bitcoin to raise liquidity sounds perfectly prudent until you’re forced to sell into a declining market. At that point, the math starts working against you. Selling creates additional supply. Additional supply can pressure prices. Lower prices reduce the value of Strategy’s largest asset, potentially creating an even greater need for liquidity. That can lead to more selling, which creates more pressure, and before long you’ve got the financial equivalent of a dog chasing its own tail into a neighborhood wood chipper.

I’m not predicting that’s how this ends. Bitcoin is a massive global asset, and Strategy alone isn’t going to dictate where it trades. But the possibility now officially exists because management has crossed a line that investors once assumed would never be crossed. Bitcoin is no longer sacred. It’s now part of the liquidity toolkit.

That raises a much bigger question. What happens after every private-sector solution has been exhausted? What happens when the equity markets stop funding you, the preferred market dries up, convertible debt becomes too expensive, and you’ve already started selling Bitcoin? Who’s the buyer of last resort?

Historically, there’s almost always been one. Banks got one. Money market funds got one. The auto industry got one. Regional banks got one. The corporate bond market got one. During COVID we were buying damn near everything that wasn’t bolted to the floor. Whenever markets become sufficiently interconnected with the rest of the financial system, Washington inevitably starts talking about “systemic risk,” and once those two words enter the conversation, almost anything becomes possible. And remember, back in August of last year, I already asked whether or not Bitcoin was too deep in the fabric of the U.S. financial system: Is Bitcoin Too Deep In The Fabric Of The U.S. Financial System?

So why not a Bitcoin bailout from the government?

The Trump administration has developed some of the closest ties to the cryptocurrency industry of any U.S. administration in history. It has installed officials viewed as supportive of digital assets, pushed for clearer rules governing the industry, and repeatedly framed Bitcoin and blockchain innovation as strategic priorities for American competitiveness.

Trump himself has gone from skeptic to outspoken advocate, publicly backing Bitcoin mining, supporting the creation of a national strategic Bitcoin reserve, and cultivating close relationships with many of the industry’s largest executives and investors. The result is an administration that is no longer merely tolerant of crypto, but one that is increasingly politically invested in its success, making the industry’s fortunes more closely aligned with the White House than at any point since Bitcoin was created.

I can already imagine the press conference. “Today, in order to preserve financial stability, the United States government is announcing a Strategic Bitcoin Stabilization Facility.”

I honestly think I’d oscillate between laughing, crying and vomiting. The irony would be almost too perfect. The asset invented to escape governments…saved by the government. The people screaming “End the Fed”…saved by the Fed. The same crowd that spent fifteen years explaining why Bitcoin doesn’t need the traditional financial system suddenly hoping Washington becomes the biggest whale on Earth.

You couldn’t write satire this good.

Politically, I think it would be suicide. The government would be accused of bailing out crypto bros. Every taxpayer would ask why Washington is spending public money supporting digital assets while families are still struggling with the cost of living. It would probably become one of the most universally despised bailouts in modern American history. Democrats would run rampant in trying to regulate and suffocate crypto if they won in 2028. And yet…I can’t completely dismiss it.

We’ve spent the better part of two decades responding to every financial emergency with the same basic solution: print money, borrow money, guarantee money, or throw taxpayer money at the problem until everyone stops panicking. If crypto continues weaving itself into public companies, pension funds, ETFs, banks, retirement accounts, and increasingly complex financing structures, politicians will eventually start arguing that the consequences of doing nothing are worse than the consequences of stepping in.

The funny part is that, by Washington standards, Bitcoin wouldn’t even be that expensive to rescue. With a market capitalization hovering around a $1.2 trillion dollars, you’re talking about an amount of money that barely registers compared to the trillions we’ve borrowed, printed, guaranteed, and spent over the past twenty years.

I’m not saying the government would do it, but it’s amazing that we’re now living in a world where it’s no longer completely absurd to imagine the conversation taking place.

If Strategy’s increasingly elaborate financial engineering ultimately isn’t enough…if Bitcoin falls much faster and much farther than anyone expects…and if every private buyer finally disappears, the last remaining bailout may come from the very institution Bitcoin was created to replace.

And if that day ever comes, don’t tell me it’s impossible. The government has done a lot dumber sh*t with a lot more money.

QTR’s DisclaimerPlease read my full legal disclaimer on my About page hereThis post represents my opinions only. In addition, please understand I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. Contributor posts and aggregated posts have been hand selected by me, have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors. They are either submitted to QTR by their author, reprinted under a Creative Commons license with my best effort to uphold what the license asks, or with the permission of the author.

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I may or may not own names I write about and are watching. Sometimes I’m bullish without owning things, sometimes I’m bearish and do own things. Just assume my positions could be exactly the opposite of what you think they are just in case. If I’m long I could quickly be short and vice versa. I won’t update my positions.

As of May 20, 2026 I personally no longer actively trade (read my story here). My investing/saving is done by recurring contributions mostly to sector ETFs and a few select equities, trusted third parties who oversee my accounts, and advisors. Such advisors or funds, through individual equities, options, index funds, mutual funds, ETFs, or other securities, may have positions in, exposure to, or holdings of names mentioned herein that I know nothing about. Basically, via index funds, ETFs and individual equities it is possible I could own, have exposure to, or not own anything at any point. As of the same date, May 20, 2026, in an attempt to lead a healthier lifestyle, I’ve also excluded myself from fantasy sports, sports betting, online and in-person casinos and prediction markets.

And all positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice and at any point I can be long, short or neutral on any position. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. If you see numbers and calculations of any sort, assume they are wrong and double check them. I failed Algebra in 8th grade and topped off my high school math accolades by getting a D- in remedial Calculus my senior year, before becoming an English major in college so I could bullshit my way through things easier.

The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. I edit after my posts are published because I’m impatient and lazy, so if you see a typo, check back in a half hour. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important.

Tyler Durden
Sat, 07/04/2026 – 14:00

Chart Of The Day: Democrats’ Patriotism Falls Off A Cliff. Here’s One Reason Why

Chart Of The Day: Democrats’ Patriotism Falls Off A Cliff. Here’s One Reason Why

American pride remains high in absolute terms, but the trend is clear: the U.S. has shifted from being one of the world’s most nationally proud countries to one that now resembles a typical Western nation.

There are multiple forces behind this decline, but the largest political signal comes from the transformation of the Democratic Party. What was once a center-left party has increasingly embraced socialism and Marxism, frequently expressing anti-American rhetoric while seeking to undermine capitalism and national identity with migrants who don’t want to assimilate. 

The new face of the Democratic Party is NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani, whose team of unhinged Democratic Socialists apparently thought it was a good idea to use George Washington’s desk as the centerpiece of a propaganda video attacking America just one day before the country’s 250th anniversary. That was not a coincidence – it was a signal.

The larger message is that the DSA, their billionaire-funded NGO network, and many of their far-left thought leaders are fueling an anti-American sentiment campaign, while their base of migrants and white liberals, affected by nation-killing suicidal empathy, increasingly view everything about the U.S. as racist. That helps explain, in part, why national pride among the left has collapsed.

One X user points out a recent Nate Silver survey showing that American pride has tumbled. That person noted, “Paul @WomanDefiner: Funny things happen when 30% of people in America aren’t American-born.” And that’s most likely correct, given that many of these migrants have little desire to assimilate…

Another survey by YouGov found that Democrats view the Black Lives Matter flag more favorably than the actual American flag.

Last week, mainstream Democrats began to panic over what years of welcoming socialists and Marxists into their DEI-powered coalition may have unleashed. The concern now is that DSA activists are no longer just an activist flank, but are hijacking parts of the party, seizing institutional power, and dragging the broader Democratic brand into an increasingly anti-American posture.

This shift has been fueled by an ecosystem of far-left NGOs, activist networks, and what may be foreign influence operations that have helped normalize socialist and Marxist politics within the party’s base. Read more here.

Democrats legitimately need to calm down. I’m a traditional Democrat, but I can’t support the party right now. America is a great country, and it’s not hard to live a relatively comfortable life here,” another X user said.

Another poll.

And another. 

Chart of the Day: We’ll leave you with this chart: U.S. National Pride vs. Foreign-Born Share…

Trump last night: 

White House via X earlier today: “You can be a communist or you can be a patriot. You cannot be both.” 

Tyler Durden
Sat, 07/04/2026 – 13:25

DRAMageddon Deepens As Samsung Prepares 20% Memory Price Hike

DRAMageddon Deepens As Samsung Prepares 20% Memory Price Hike

There is no immediate price relief coming for cutting-edge memory chips, even as South Korea moves to double memory capacity. New fabs and expanded lines take time to build and then ramp production, meaning the supply response will lag demand. For now, DRAM inventories remain tight through year-end as data center buildouts accelerate, keeping producers like Samsung in control of the market, with more price hikes likely ahead.

The memory-chip squeeze is not easing anytime soon. That is the clear takeaway from a new report by the Shanghai-based Chinese financial media group Yicai, which says Samsung plans to raise average third-quarter DRAM prices by about 20% from the prior quarter.

More color from Yicai:

On July 3, it was reported that Samsung Electronics plans to raise the average selling price of its DRAM (Dynamic Random Access Memory) by 20% in the third quarter of this year compared to the previous quarter.

“It’s true,” an executive from a consumer electronics manufacturer told CBN reporters. “Samsung had already spoken with us in June and we have now received verbal notification from Samsung about raising DRAM prices.”

“The significant price increase of upstream components will be passed on to the final price of the finished product, which will curb market demand to some extent. However, since the overall price of consumer electronics products is not high now, even if prices rise, it is not expected to significantly affect users’ purchasing decisions,” said the person in charge of the aforementioned consumer electronics terminal manufacturer.

Another industry veteran also told reporters that the news that Samsung plans to raise DRAM prices by 20% in the third quarter is true, and Samsung has already notified some customers of the verbal price quote.

DDR4 DRAM spot prices tracked by inSpectrum Tech suggest the memory squeeze still has room to run, with the latest rebound pointing to another potential leg higher.

The industry response, and in South Korea’s case, a national-level response, has been a massive push by giants Samsung and SK Hynix to double memory-chip production. But that chip capacity buildout will take years, meaning the current supply crunch is unlikely to ease quickly in the near term.

The situation is worsening, with a recent report detailing Apple’s plan to buy cheaper DRAM from China. Meanwhile, there have been price hikes on popular gaming consoles, from Xbox to PlayStation, as tech giants can no longer shield consumers from memory-chip inflation and are now being forced to pass those costs along to customers.

JPMorgan analyst Jay Kwon recently broke down South Korea’s push to double memory production. Read the note here.

Tyler Durden
Sat, 07/04/2026 – 12:15

New York City Appropriates $7 Million For ‘Trans Equity’, Drag Queen Story Hours

New York City Appropriates $7 Million For ‘Trans Equity’, Drag Queen Story Hours

Authored by Bryan Hyde via American Greatness,

A massive $126 billion spending plan approved by the New York City Council earlier this week includes nearly $7 million for so-called ‘trans equity’ programs and drag queen story hours.

The New York Post reports that the budget was approved by Mayor Zohran Mamdani and directs the taxpayer money to programs and services “to help empower the transgender and gender non-conforming (TGNC) community.”

The city council said, “Funding may support education programs, employment services, workforce development, healthcare navigation, legal guidance, community workshops, or academic research, among others.”

According to The National Review, the new budget doesn’t include any spending for the additional 580 police officers Mayor Mamdani promised to hire.

State Conservative Party Chairman Gerard Kassar questioned, “Why isn’t there more money for police?”

Kassar added, “There are countless dollars going toward extreme, far-out programs,” Kassar said.

“This goes way beyond recognizing transgender individuals into spending millions of taxpayer dollars to promote transgenderism.”

Key funding initiatives of the nearly $7 million earmark include $1 million for directed to Destiny Tomorrow for the first transitional housing program for transgender individuals in the Bronx as well as $705,000 for community health for the Gay Men’s Health Crisis and $600,000 for the Caribbean Equality Project.

The allocation also includes funding for education and tolerance with funds for the Advocates for Trans Equality Education Fund and the Trans Formative Schools program, alongside localized funding from city council members for drag story hours in schools and libraries.

Allen Roskoff, head of the Jim Owles Liberal LGBT Democratic Club, told the New York Post, “Transgender youth need our support. These individuals are the most vulnerable people out there. We will do everything in our power to protect these children from hate orchestrated by far right Republicans. We are going to see to it they get the health care and protection they deserve.”

The approval of the nearly $7 million earmark comes on the heels of Mamdani encouraging New Yorkers to set their thermostats to 78 degrees to conserve energy, with Republicans calling the mayor’s budgeting priorities into question.

Tyler Durden
Sat, 07/04/2026 – 11:40

Ships Abruptly U-Turn Near Hormuz As Some Shift To Iran-Approved Routes

Ships Abruptly U-Turn Near Hormuz As Some Shift To Iran-Approved Routes

The reopening of the Hormuz chokepoint has proceeded relatively smoothly for weeks, but an overnight development shows that the process remains fragile. At least eight ships attempting to exit the Persian Gulf abruptly reversed course near the critical waterway.

Bloomberg cites ship-tracking data showing that the vessels, including oil tankers, product carriers, bulk carriers, and vehicle carriers, were moving toward the strait along the Omani coast before abruptly turning back. Several ships later resumed their transits through the strait by shifting northward onto a route closer to the Iranian coast, in line with Tehran’s request that ships use authorized Iranian-designated lanes.

via Bloomberg: 

It is unclear why the ships abruptly altered course, though Tehran has repeatedly warned vessels by VHF radio to follow designated routes.

Earlier on Saturday, Iran warned Western powers that the Hormuz waterway is not a “theater for the military display of extra-regional powers.”

Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said Iran views itself as the responsible power and security guarantor of the strait, adding that Tehran would closely monitor any foreign military movements in the waterway.

Gharibabadi’s warning came shortly after the UK and France announced that their navies were ready to support freedom-of-navigation operations in the waterway.

“Iran, as the responsible power and guarantor of the Strait’s security, warns with sensitivity to any military movement in this waterway,” Gharibabadi said on X.

He added, “The security of Hormuz lies with the coastal states; the crisis-makers will be held accountable for the consequences of their adventurism; this is a serious warning.”

While daily commodity vessel crossings have averaged around 34 since Monday, Hormuz vessel traffic remains well below pre-war levels.

Natasha Kaneva, JPMorgan’s top commodities strategist, provided clients with more color on Hormuz ship flows and what it means for energy markets:

There is now a rush to move stranded cargoes out of the Strait of Hormuz. Average crude exports from the Persian Gulf plus re-routed volumes over the last ten days have already recovered to about 19 mbd, just 3 mbd below pre-war levels. The backlog is also disappearing quickly: floating storage has fallen to just 20 million barrels, while another 10 million barrels remain in onshore tanks awaiting exports.

Meanwhile, inbound tankers are lining up to enter the Strait, preparing to load barrels that have been sitting in storage tanks for months. More entering vessels will be needed as production across the Gulf gradually returns to normal operating levels. We are already seeing a growing queue of ballast VLCCs moving towards the Gulf.

The line is long and deep—an important signal that the logistical chain is reconnecting and that loadings can continue uninterrupted as the system works its way back toward normal.

Professional subscribers can read more about Hormuz and Gulf energy markets on our new Marketdesk.ai portal.

Tyler Durden
Sat, 07/04/2026 – 11:05

10 Charts Show How America Has Changed In 250 Years

10 Charts Show How America Has Changed In 250 Years

Authored by Sylvia Xu via The Epoch Times,

The United States has transformed from a collection of 13 eastern colonies into a transcontinental nation spanning 50 states, one district, and five major territories—a geographic expansion forged through land purchases and war treaties.

America’s two-and-a-half-century evolution includes not only geographic growth, but also transformations in population, family structures, wages, the housing market, and health.

Through data and graphics, here is a look at how the country has changed over 250 years.

Changing Face of America

In 1790, 95 percent of Americans resided in rural areas; by 2020, that figure had dropped to 20 percent.

This demographic shift transformed the rural landscape itself. More than 50 percent of rural residents lived on farms prior to 1940, but that share dwindled to a mere 5 percent by 2000.

Although the U.S. urban population surged from 5 percent in 1790 to 80 percent in 2020, this growth shifted heavily toward suburban and outlying areas after 1950, leaving central cities with less than half of the total urban population.

While domestic migration altered where Americans lived, shifting global immigration patterns simultaneously refined who made up the nation.

The number of U.S. foreign-born residents grew from 2.2 million in 1850 to 50.2 million in 2024, or from 9 percent of the national population to nearly 15 percent.

Europe supplied the majority of immigrants during a century-long window from 1850 to 1970, though its share dropped from 92 percent to about 62 percent.

The Mexican-born population of the United States multiplied more than 15 times between 1970 and 2010, exploding from fewer than 800,000 to nearly 12 million.

The pivot point of modern immigration was the 1986 Immigration Reform and Control Act, according to a 1999 study from the Organization of American Historians.

Men sit on a bench outside a Mexican restaurant in Los Angeles on April 27, 2005. The Mexican-born population in the United States grew from fewer than 800,000 in 1970 to nearly 12 million in 2010. Hector Mata/AFP via Getty Images

The law was “instrumental in transforming Mexican immigration” from a seasonal flow of undocumented workers into settled families across the country, according to the journal.

Spurred by economic instability in Mexico in the late 1980s, migrants “opted to remain abroad, accept the proffered legalization, and settle more permanently into a United States life.”

By 2010, the regional makeup of the foreign-born population was led by Latin America (over 50 percent), followed by Asia (28 percent) and Europe (12 percent).

California, Texas, and Illinois were the leading states of residence for Mexican-born populations.

Despite the global immigration and an 84-fold population increase over 230 years, the most common American last names have remained consistent, according to an April report from the U.S. Census Bureau.

Surnames such as Smith, Johnson, Williams, Brown, Jones, Miller, Davis, and Wilson all placed in the top 15 in both the 1790 and 2020 censuses.

Notably, Asian last names such as Zhang, Liu, and Wang ranked among the fastest-growing surnames between 2010 and 2020, according to the bureau’s data.

Evolution of the American Household

America was young in 1800, with high fertility rates and abundant land. Its population was young, too—roughly 50 percent of the population was 16 years old or younger.

In the 18th century, the average American woman bore at least seven children.

Benjamin Franklin attributed the high fertility rates to the ease of acquiring good farmland.

A portrait of the D.D. Miller family of Goshen, Ind., from an album dated 1910–1920. Large families were common in the United States in the 18th, 19th, and early 20th centuries. Mennonite Church USA Archives/Public Domain

“So vast is the Territory of North-America, that it will require many Ages to settle fully,” he said in a 1751 essay. “Land being thus plenty … a labouring man, that understands Husbandry, can in a short Time save Money enough to purchase a Piece of new Land sufficient for a Plantation, whereon he may subsist a Family.”

The American population grew and lived longer. It expanded from from 3.9 million in 1790 to roughly 342.6 million by June 2026, while its median age more than doubled, from 16 to around 39.

In 1790, large families dominated the landscape, with 36 percent of U.S. households containing seven or more members. Conversely, small households (one to two people) made up just 11.5 percent of the population.

The trend reversed over time. By 2010, large households with seven or more people dwindled to under 2 percent, while small households of one or two individuals surged to a 60 percent majority.

Despite the shrinking size of the American family, the cultural ideal of a stable, self-sufficient home remained a cornerstone of national policy.

“A family that owns its home takes pride in it, maintains it better, gets more pleasure out of it, and has a more wholesome, healthful, and happy atmosphere in which to bring up children,” President Herbert Hoover said in a 1931 handbook for homebuyers.

The federal government implemented standardized housing, city plans, and building codes to increase homeownership beginning in the 1920s.

By 1930, the federal government introduced long-term, fixed-rate mortgages that self-amortized over 20 years—later expanded to 30 years.

Homes in Staten Island, N.Y., on April 10, 2025. The modern, long-term mortgage introduced during the 1930s, to combat a foreclosure crisis during the Great Depression, enabled widespread middle-class homeownership. Samira Bouaou/The Epoch Times

But before 1940, homeownership never exceeded 50 percent. 

Then began, in 1945, the economic miracle of the postwar era—a “golden era” for the American family.

Homeownership climbed steadily through this era and reached almost 65 percent by the end of the 1960s, according to the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University. Since then, it has stayed relatively stable, rising to just over 66 percent in 2000 and dropping to 63 percent in 2020.

In the pre-Depression era, most homeowners were mortgage free. Those who carried mortgages often had short-term contracts of around one to five years, with large downpayments of more than 50 percent. Many homeowners turned to second mortgages as a source for downpayments.

The modern, long-term mortgage introduced during the 1930s to combat a foreclosure crisis during the Great Depression enabled widespread middle-class homeownership. 

At the same time, it had the effect of reducing the number of homeowners who owned their homes outright. Less than 19 percent of Americans owned their homes free and clear in 2000, but the number is rising, according to Census Bureau data. Almost a quarter of Americans owned their homes outright in 2020.

Cost of the American Dream

The U.S. government sold land at just $1 an acre in the 1790s. But there was a catch.

Congress needed a way to raise funds to support the fledgling government after the costly American Revolutionary War. The Land Ordinance Act of 1785 raised those funds through land sales. The acreage was cheap. However, buyers had to purchase a minimum of 640 acres and had to pay in cash or military land warrants.

Before 1800, the average wage for laborers—such as hod-carriers, mortar-mixers, diggers, and choppers—was $65 a year, “with food and, perhaps, lodging,” estimated historian John Bach McMaster in his book “A History of the People of the United States, From the Revolution to the Civil War.”

Wages varied by occupation and state. Women at a cotton factory in New York were paid around $104, Henry Wansey reported in his traveling journal, published in 1796 as “An excursion to the United States of North America, in the summer of 1794.” Salaries of seamen were from $240 to $288.

Clergy’s salaries were higher. A Connecticut clergyman could earn 100 pounds—about $475 in 1794, according to Wansey’s journal.

Farmers harvest potatoes in an unknown location in the United States, in this file photo from the 1930s. Before 1880, the American workforce was rooted in agriculture, but by 2000 the proportaion of farm-related workers had fallen to less than 1 percent of the workforce. Stringer/Files-ACME/AFP via Getty Images

Before 1880, the American workforce was rooted in agriculture. Nearly 30 percent of working adults aged 16 and older were farmers, and an additional 20 percent or more worked as laborers.

By 2000, the number of farm-related workers had dropped to less than 1 percent of the workforce. Instead, professional roles grew to command over 20 percent of American jobs, followed closely by office and administrative occupations at more than 15 percent.

No matter how much the job market changed, the difficulty of translating that income into property ownership has remained a permanent financial hurdle.

While a buyer in the 1790s might have paid almost 10 years wages’ for land, a modern buyer may pay over six years’ salary for a home.

Houses line sidewalks in the Manhattan Beach neighborhood of Brooklyn, N.Y., circa 1945. Formerly occupied by the U.S. Coast Guard, the properties were turned over to veterans to ease the city’s post-war housing shortage. The national homeownership rate rose to 55 percent by 1950. European/FPG/Archive Photos/Getty Images

A closer look at the 1790s housing market reveals that while a basic roof was within reach for some, luxury estates demanded an astronomical premium.

A log house in Hamburg, Pennsylvania—with four rooms on a floor, including doors, windows, wainscoting, and locks—cost roughly $200, Wansey observed in his travels.

A New York villa on 80 acres of improved land was listed for around $19,000 in 1794, according to Wansey.

That was a fortune compared to laborers’ wages.

Then as now, the steep premium on New York real estate also extended to the rental market. “House rent is very dear,” Wansey said in 1794 from New York City. “One hundred and fifty pounds sterling is a common rent for storekeepers and tradesmen to give.”

That yearly rent was equivalent to more than $600 in 1794, or around $18,000 today.

Causes of Death

In 1811, tuberculosis (23.5 percent), diarrhea (6 percent), pneumonia (5 percent), and stillbirths (5 percent) dominated the causes of mortality among 942 deceased Boston residents, according to an abstract reprinted in the New England Journal of Medicine in 2012.

Teething, worms, and drinking cold water were also found to kill, according to the study.

In the early 20th century, tuberculosis was still a leading cause of death in the United States, along with pneumonia and influenza.

By 2010, influenza remained on the list but heart disease, cancer, and other chronic conditions assumed more dominant roles.

Circulatory diseases accounted for the largest number of excess U.S. deaths—the number of deaths over the estimated number based on historical trends—from 1999 to 2022, according to a study of more than 63.5 million deaths published in May in JAMA Network Open. The nation’s death rate fell in 2025 to its lowest point on record, according to CDC data. The leading causes of death in 2025 were heart disease, cancer, and unintentional injuries.

Over two-and-a-half centuries, the American population has lived longer.

In the late 1700s, the life expectancy was around 35 to 40 years old, according to historical estimates. Today, the average American life expectancy is about 79 years, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

Average life expectancy in the 18th and 19th centuries was heavily influenced by high infant and childhood mortality rates. Infections such as dysentery, diphtheria, scarlet fever and pneumonia killed many babies and children.

Over the nation’s history, advances in technology, sanitation, food safety, and medicine, including the discovery of antibiotics in the 20th century, reduced infant mortality—the death of an infant before its first birthday—dramatically.

Mothers and their babies gather at a health station for feeding babies with bottled milk, on Madison Street, New York City, circa 1930. Infant mortality—which claimed about 100 babies per 1,000 births in 1915, fell throughout the 20th century to 5.4 infant deaths per 1,000 births in 2025, due to advances in medicine and other factors. Keystone View Company/FPG/Archive Photos/Getty Images

A lack of data on births and infant deaths in the 19th century United States makes it hard to gauge infant mortality, although by some historical estimates, up to 20 percent of infants died in the first year of life in the 19th century United States.

By 1915, when U.S. Census Bureau annual data on the subject was first available, the infant mortality rate in the United States was 100 per 1,000 live births. 

In 2025, the infant mortality rate dropped to an all time low of 5.4 infant deaths per 1,000, according to the CDC.

Maternal mortality rates also plummeted. In 1900, the maternal mortality rate in the United States was about 850 women per 100,000 births, according to the American Journal of Obstetrics and Gynecology. In 2026, that number stands at just 17.9 deaths per 100,000 births, according to the CDC.

Tyler Durden
Sat, 07/04/2026 – 10:30

Heat Dome Threatens America’s 250th Birthday As Power Grid Crisis Continues

Heat Dome Threatens America’s 250th Birthday As Power Grid Crisis Continues

A massive heat dome continues to threaten the eastern half of the US, with the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast at the epicenter of the sweltering conditions.

The summer heat is already disrupting July 4 celebrations and World Cup matches, while pushing the nation’s largest power grid toward crisis mode later this afternoon for the third consecutive day.

The annual Independence Day Parade in Washington, DC, set for later today was canceled “due to extreme heat,” organizers said in an overnight memo. 

Cooling demand will surge again later today, just as PJM faces a record load. The grid that serves 67 million people across 13 states has held up so far because of the Trump administration’s emergency orders requiring fossil-fuel power plants to run at full capacity. This comes as disastrous climate socialist policies have neutered parts of the grid that collided with a data center boom.

“On July 2, PJM’s peak instantaneous load was approximately 162,700 megawatts between 5 and 6 p.m., according to preliminary figures, but that figure was suppressed by the use of demand response programs,” PJM told members and stakeholders in an operations update. “The peak load is likely to have surpassed the all-time PJM record.”

The website GridStatus has shown throughout this week that the main power mix that has saved PJM from total collapse has been a combination of natural gas, nuclear, and coal. At the same time, unreliable solar and wind have together contributed only a mid- to high-single-digit percentage of total power generation.

Temperatures are expected to climb into triple-digit territory on Saturday, with relief on the way.

Forecasts show average temperatures across the region plunging below the 30-year average of around 70F next week, offering a brief break from the heat dome. However, that may not last long, as the latest two-week outlook points to another potential heat dome after the midpoint of the month.

Climate change in the 1930s? Someone tell the climate socialists. 

Bryan Jackson, a forecaster at the US Weather Prediction Center, told Bloomberg what’s next for the Mid-Atlantic region: “We are going to go from a period of intense heat to what should be quite a few stormy days. The heat will be down but the storm chances will be way up.”

Tyler Durden
Sat, 07/04/2026 – 09:20

Russia Planning Provocation Against Poland To Test NATO Resolve, US Reportedly Warned

Russia Planning Provocation Against Poland To Test NATO Resolve, US Reportedly Warned

The Telegraph along with various Eastern European media outlets, including Polish national sources, are reporting that United States passed Warsaw a warning based on intelligence that Moscow is considering an armed provocation against Poland to “test NATO’s resolve”.

Provocation scenarios are said to potentially include drone attacks on critical infrastructure such as power plants, or else testing airspace by simulating a large-scale air attack to try and force Poland to prematurely activate its air defenses.

An official within President Karol Nawrocki’s administration said the US “systematically informs Poland about ever-new Russian plans for a conventional attack on NATO’s eastern flank, from which Poland is by no means excluded.” These reports are rife with wild speculation, however, and thus could be standard wartime propaganda. 

Polish armed forces/Anadolu

A “hybrid attack” on the border region, possibly involving Belarusian armed forces, is considered to be the most serious possibly scenario, according to the reports.

It would be portrayed as an ‘accidental’ incursion:

Moscow could portray such an incursion as accidental, claiming troops crossed the border because of a GPS failure or entered Poland to retrieve a malfunctioning helicopter, according to the report.

Russia could then seek negotiations rather than a military response, betting that the United States would pressure Poland not to open fire on Russian or Belarusian personnel.

The Telegraph lays out a potential motive in the following:

Russia would count on the fact that, instead of opening fire on Russian or Belarusian soldiers in such a situation, Poland would be forced by the US to negotiate with Russia or Belarus rather than respond forcefully, Polish sources told Onet.

A scenario in which the Russians would withdraw from Poland as a result of those negotiations, rather than because they were forced to do so by military means, would be seen as a win from Moscow’s perspective.

An end to Western support for Ukraine could even be a central Russian demand of such talks in return for withdrawal from Poland.

Given the reporting on all of this ultimately originated in Polish media, and cited sources close to the presidency, there’s also the likelihood that it is pure propaganda – aimed at dialing up Western pressure and ‘readiness’ with an eye on Moscow.

Poland is meanwhile busy with ongoing plans to complete a new set of anti-drone fortifications along its eastern borders, part of a broader EU and NATO push for a protective ‘drone wall’ in defense of European airspace.

There’s been much speculation that ‘Union State’ Belarus could play a key role in future Russian maneuvers targeting Poland.

This planning began in earnest in 2025 after repeat aerial spillover incidents related to the Ukraine war – at various times errant drones, missiles, interceptors – and also even warplanes – have breached Baltic and Eastern European nations’ airspace. Often, however, these incidents arise from off-course Ukrainian drones.

Tyler Durden
Sat, 07/04/2026 – 08:45

ISIS Terrorist Reaches Britain Via Small Boat After TikTok Assured Him UK ‘Accepts Everyone’

ISIS Terrorist Reaches Britain Via Small Boat After TikTok Assured Him UK ‘Accepts Everyone’

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,

A convicted ISIS terrorist who attended beheadings and public floggings in Iraq has been jailed for two years after arriving in Britain on a small boat. He told officials he came because he heard on TikTok that the UK “accepts everyone” and respects human rights.

Mohammed Yaseen, 35, had lived a desolate existence in Iraq before aligning with ISIS. He watched ceremonies including stonings and was found with a Kalashnikov rifle. He later travelled to Germany in 2014, made multiple asylum claims, and was convicted in Dusseldorf for participating in a terrorist organisation and membership of ISIS. He received a four-year-and-three-month sentence and a 20-year expulsion order.

Instead of being returned to Iraq, Yaseen made his way to France and then crossed the Channel. On 13 December 2025 a Border Force vessel intercepted the small boat carrying around 80 people. Yaseen gave a false name, claimed to be from Kuwait, and lied about his age and background. He was placed in a hotel in Basingstoke with clean clothes and asylum support.

Of course he was.

Biometrics exposed the deception. He was arrested on Christmas Eve and later admitted attempting to enter the UK without valid clearance. Winchester Crown Court heard the full extent of his past.

Prosecutor Steven Molloy told the court: “He said he travelled from Kuwait to France from Belgium and was seeking asylum. He said he did not like it in France but heard on TikTok that the UK accepts everyone and respects human rights.”

Molloy added: “There is a deeper and lengthy involvement in terrorism and Islamic extremist ideology. Our assessment is that he is high risk in all categories. There is a danger that this individual poses to the whole of the UK.”

Defence barrister Katie Porter-Windley acknowledged the German convictions but insisted they had no bearing on his UK intentions and that he had committed no further offences here.

Yes, they really argued that the convicted ISIS terrorist should be allowed to claim asylum.

Judge Christopher Parker KC noted evidence that Yaseen could speak English despite claiming otherwise and stated: “You made absolutely no mention of what had happened in Germany in 2020 when you were convicted of a serious offence. My judgment is that your culpability is exceedingly high. There is a strong likelihood that you will be deported from this country either at the start of or before your sentence is concluded.”

Yaseen is now serving his sentence and faces removal.

The question is, how many more cases like this have slipped through the net?

The case occurs against the backdrop of sustained small boat arrivals across the English Channel. Official figures show around 36,000 people reached the UK by small boat in the year ending 31 May 2026, down 13% on the previous period.

In 2025 the total stood at approximately 41,500. The first five months of 2026 saw roughly 9,000 arrivals, 38% lower than the same stretch of 2025, though numbers typically rise through summer. Recent daily counts have fluctuated, with over hundreds arriving some days.

A Home Office spokesperson claimed the government is “bearing down on small boat crossings, with removals of small boat migrants at record levels and asylum claims down by 12%,” adding that joint work with France has stopped over 44,000 attempted crossings since the election and that nearly 70,000 people here illegally have been removed or deported, up 41%.

Yet the presence of a convicted ISIS operative who simply watched a TikTok video and decided Britain would take him demonstrates that vetting and deterrence remain dangerously inadequate.

Footage captured by GB News shows the mindset of some arrivals. Illegal migrants on a small boat in the Channel can be seen discarding passports and shouting “this is the end of England” moments before landing on British shores.

Meanwhile, the government plans to house more than 1,000 adult single male boat migrants at a former MOD site near the villages of Upper Arncot and Piddington (combined population around 1,600).

The men, who crossed from France, will not be detained and will be free to wander local areas. Even voters in areas that backed pro-migration parties are now confronting the direct consequences.

The same pattern appears in housing decisions that have sparked fury in rural communities. There is outrage over plans to move more than 80 asylum seekers into £250,000 new-build homes on what locals call “Migrant Street” in Stoke Heath, Shropshire.

The properties had been promised as social housing for local families. Residents described feeling lied to and expressed fears for safety, particularly around children.

GB News correspondent Alex Armstrong spoke to locals in Stoke Heath. One resident stated: “These houses were built for locals, for families who’ve never had a chance… It’s putting our lives in danger.”

The new-build estates purported to be for social housing are instead now being allocated to hundreds of random foreign men, placed next to a children’s playground and primary school.

Proposals for large numbers at sites such as Linton-on-Ouse and former military bases, stand in stark contrast with 1.5 million British households on council waiting lists and the lack of local consultation or amenities in many receiving areas.

Residents have voiced concerns about safety, cultural change, and the sudden tripling of small village populations.

Beyond immediate arrivals and housing, policy shifts are accelerating the erosion of British identity. The Centre for Migration Control has today highlighted how citizenship is being systematically devalued.

After the earlier emphasis on vague “British values,” the Home Office is now allowing illegal migrants to obtain British citizenship simply by remaining in the country for six years, regardless of integration or values.

Further examples underscore the enforcement gap. GB News reported that Labour has been urged to pursue rapid deportation after the so-called “Godfather of smugglers,” who boasted “this city is ours,” claimed asylum in the UK.

The cumulative picture is stark. A terrorist who attended beheadings enters because social media told him Britain would accept him – and the court record confirms the claim aligned with his experience. Migrants on incoming boats declare the end of England. Rural communities watch new homes handed to unvetted arrivals while local families remain on waiting lists. Citizenship rules loosen further, and even notorious smugglers are benefitting from the system.

Britain’s borders are not merely porous; they function as an open invitation that high-risk actors and economic migrants alike have learned to exploit.

Every fresh arrival and every housing dispute adds to the pressure on communities already stretched by years of uncontrolled inflows.

Secure borders, rigorous vetting, swift removals of those without valid claims, and an end to policies that place newcomers ahead of citizens are baseline requirements for any nation that intends to remain sovereign and safe.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden
Sat, 07/04/2026 – 08:10

German Clampdown On Sick Leave: No More Phoning It In, Doc Note Needed On Day 1

German Clampdown On Sick Leave: No More Phoning It In, Doc Note Needed On Day 1

In a stark departure from its reputation for employee-coddling, the German government is attacking the mass abuse of sick leave with strict new policies that would require a doctor’s note obtained on the very first day an employee is sick, with no ability to simply take a sick day with a mere phone call. The reform package also targets retirement ages, tax rates,  regulations, welfare benefits and the ease of hiring and firing. It’s expected to pass parliament by year’s end. 

“The number of sick days is too high,” German chancellor Friedrich Merz told reporters. “We are creating a set of tools that will enable those involved, both employees and companies, to correct this. We know this is a tough decision. But we can no longer afford the competitive disadvantage caused by prolonged absences from work.” Merz said the changes are needed to invigorate Germany’s economy, which has faltered after the COVID pandemic and suffered from the West’s interventions in the Ukraine war and Iran. 

Previously, employees in Germany didn’t need a doctor’s note until their third day of absence, and they could obtain the note via a phone call to a doctor. The rules also granted up to six weeks of leave per illness. A new bout of sickness started a new six-week clock. 

On top of enjoying six weeks of vacation time, the average German has been taking nearly three weeks of sick leave per year. The German sick-time pace is about double the US pace, and is also higher than the call-out frequency in Sweden, the Netherlands, Denmark, Poland and Italy. However, sick-leave abuse is even worse in France and most of the Nordic states. 

Predictably, German trade unions are up in arms. Frank Werneke, who leads the services-sector union Verdi, said Merz was “creating a culture of distrust of employees.” (Seems like maybe the employees collectively cultivated that distrust by casually calling out sick.)  

Medical professionals are squawking too, warning the policy will be a hammer-blow to efficiency and doctor availability. The German Association of Family Physicians called the new rules “an absolute catastrophe,” adding that “our practices would be flooded with patients who don’t need in-person care and would be better off in bed.” 

The German reform package resulted from negotiations between Merz’s center-right Christian Democratic Union Party and the Left-wing Social Democrat Party that is part of the ruling coalition. The package also includes:

  • A gradual increase of the retirement age from 65 to 67
  • The introduction of a capital-markets fund for the investment of contributions to the state pension system
  • Greater ease in hiring short-term workers and firing top-earners
  • Welfare reform that incentivizes laid-off workers to get a new job as soon as possible 
  • €10 billion in income tax relief for working-class and middle-income households, fueled by a tax hike on those earning more than €250,000 a year, along with reductions of assorted tax breaks
  • Deregulation, including sweeping relief that drops most requirements for employers to feed statistics to government bureaucracies, and the easing of data privacy regulations for small firms
  • Bakeries and pastry shops will have the freedom to stay open later on Sundays

Tyler Durden
Sat, 07/04/2026 – 07:35