Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

As “dip buyers” get eviscerated, more dominos fall, and at a tipping point, the herd realizes the tide has reversed and it’s time to sell–but alas, it’s too late.

Illiquid, Overvalued describes a great many assets that are on the books as “rock-solid investments.” Illiquidity means there are few if any buyers for the asset being offered for sale, and this can arise from various conditions.

1. Credit is tight and expensive, limiting the pool of potential buyers to those with cash.

2. Nobody wants the assets because they’re grossly overvalued.

3. The pool of buyers with the expertise and financial backing needed to buy the asset is inherently limited.

4. “Animal spirits” have left the room and buyers are “on strike” due to caution / fear of future losses.

Bill Ackman outlined some useful principles of illiquidity in a recent commentary on X in his discussion of the illiquid nature of many assets held by Ivy league university endowment funds:

“Harvard’s endowment is principally invested in illiquid private assets including real estate, private equity, and venture capital funds.

Real estate and private equity funds are highly levered so relatively small changes in asset values can have a large impact on equity values. For example, if a real estate fund’s asset values decline by 15% and the assets are levered 60%, the fund’s equity value will decline by 37.5%.

The increase in cap rates and interest rates have impaired real estate and private equity asset values. These funds do not generally mark to market as public assets are marked leading to a wide disparity between public values and private values when overall values decline.

Venture funds generally mark their assets to the last round valuation so these marks can also be overstated as these values can become stale.

I believe that a substantial part of the reason why many private assets remain private despite the stock market near all time highs is that the public market will value private assets at lower values than they are being carried at privately.”

In other words, assets held privately can be “marked to fantasy” because they’re not exposed to the market’s appraisal of their liquidity and value, which are two sides of one coin: if nobody has the cash and willingness to buy the asset, its value is essentially zero, regardless of its “book value.”

When Alan Greenspan issued his mea culpa in late 2013 about missing the subprime mortgage implosion and the resulting Global Financial Meltdown (Why I Didn’t See the Crisis Coming Foreign Affairs), he identified two sources of his failure to “see it coming”:

1. He assumed markets would remain liquid, i.e. that a buyer would emerge for every seller

2. The total failure of everyone’s sophisticated models to predict the collapse of confidence.

The core failure lay in the models’ reliance on the notion that humans make decisions rationally as Homo economicus, when the reality is we are extremely prone to irrational exuberance (a.k.a. running with the euphorically greedy herd) and panic (running off the cliff with the herd). He invoked Keynes famous “animal spirits” as the missing variable in economic models.

Irrational “animal spirits” generate “tail risk,” events that supposedly happen only rarely but when they do happen, they trigger outsized consequences, and the Fed’s models failed to accurately account for “tail risk” because they happen more often than statistical models predict.

All this boils down to illiquidity caused by a panic-button urgency to sell and a profound reluctance to buy: When “animal spirits” are confident in ever-higher asset valuations, participants place a constant bid under the market because prices will keep going up so I’ll make more money. This constant bid is called liquidity: cash is flowing into the asset class, be it stocks or housing or cryptocurrencies or commodities.

When “animal spirits” turn to panic, sellers rush to sell as buyers vanish as they fear that prices will keep going down so I’ll lose more money. Buying into a downtrend is known as “catching the falling knife”: the initial “buy the dip” players have their heads handed to them on a platter, and those on the sidelines decide not to try to catch the falling knife.

This is an illiquid market: the bid keeps dropping until buyers are willing to gamble that “this is the bottom.” But should asset prices continue sliding after an initial euphoric pop higher–“the bottom is in, buy!”–then those who held back find their caution reinforced: that wasn’t the bottom after all, and everyone who jumped in lost money.

As every surge of “buy the dip” players loses, the market goes bidless–everyone who wanted to play “catch the falling knife” has been burned, and those who have lost the “animal spirits” to gamble stay out. Bids (offers to buy) dry up and asset prices crash to levels no one in the greed-euphoria stage could imagine were even remotely possible.

Those who follow liquidity assume that the more cash sloshing around the system, the more money will flow into assets. But this assumes participants are rational and prices are “fair value”. When panic takes hold of the herd, no matter how much cash is sloshing around, none of it will be gambled on a losing bet.

Take a look at this chart of the Nasdaq dot-com bubble, and note the bubble symmetry: what shot up soon plummeted back to pre-bubble levels. Stocks that had reached $60 per share were recommended as “buys” at $45–a rational play perhaps, but wildly off the mark, as the stock eventually bottomed at $4.

When sellers desperate to sell swamp buyers, prices decline. If bids dry up, prices crash.

There is a domino-like effect to euphoria /liquidity turning to caution and then to panic / illiquidity. When overvalued illiquid private assets are sold at huge discounts, this topples the first domino of caution in professional money managers, who then move to sell the overvalued assets on their books to credulous “retail” investors and overseas buyers.

As “dip buyers” get eviscerated, more dominos fall, and at a tipping point, the herd realizes the tide has reversed and it’s time to sell–but alas, it’s too late.

The Federal Reserve can pump billions of dollars of credit “liquidity” into the financial system, but if nobody wants to “catch the falling knife,” the credit will just sit there untouched, as everyone who was dumb enough to borrow money and gamble it away–leaving the debt still to pay–has already been wiped out.

Illiquid and overvalued: two sides of the same coin.

*  *  *

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So much for the Democrats’ panic that the US is about to be hit with hyperinflation (because Toyota is footing US tariff costs). 

Moments ago, the NY Fed reported that consumer expectations for future inflation have return to levels last seen at the beginning of the year, before the announcement of aggressive new tariffs, as the fake panic that Trump is about to spark the same runaway inflation that his predecessor unleashed, fade away. 

The June survey showed median expectations for consumer price increases one year ahead decreased for the second straight month in June, falling back to 3%, back to where they were at the end of 2024 and before Trump had launched his tariff strategy. Estimates for annualized inflation three and five years ahead remained unchanged at 3% and 2.6%. Inflation uncertainty, or the uncertainty expressed regarding future inflation outcomes, decreased at the one- and three-year-ahead horizons and was unchanged at the five-year-ahead horizon

Median home price growth expectations remained unchanged at 3.0%. This series has been moving in a narrow range between 3.0% and 3.3% since August 2023.

Median year-ahead commodity price change expectations increased by 1.5 percentage points for gas to 4.2%, by 1.9 percentage points for the cost of medical care to 9.3% (the highest level since June 2023), by 1.6 percentage points for the cost of college education to 9.1%, and by 0.7 percentage point for rent to 9.1%. Median year-ahead expected change in food prices remained unchanged at 5.5%.

Overall household sentiment also benefited, as unemployment and job loss expectations improved. To wit, mean unemployment expectation, or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from no, decreased by 1.1 percentage point to 39.7%…

… while the mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months decreased by 0.8% to 14.0%, the lowest level since December 2024. The decrease was broad-based across age and education groups

Median one-year-ahead earnings growth expectations fell by 0.2 percentage point to 2.5% in June, remaining below its 12-month trailing average of 2.8%. The series has been moving within the range between 2.5% and 3.0% since May 2021

While spending growth expectations slightly declined, household income growth expectations increased: the median expected growth in household income increased by 0.2 percentage point to 2.9% in June, equaling its 12-month trailing average.

Households were also more optimistic about their year-ahead financial situations and credit access

Finally, after sliding to a record low 33.8% in March, household expectations for higher stock prices one year from now rose to 36.0%…

… and while expectations for growth in government debt also rose to a 7.3% annual increase, the highest since October, the real number will be much, much higher now that Trump’s BBB (and future US credit rating) has passed.

By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

Equities and bonds sold off (a bit) yesterday, primarily on tariff headlines. Letters went out to a myriad of countries, with Japan and South Korea leading the way. Their tariffs were “reset” to roughly the Liberation Day rates.

We discussed the risk that the administration would take another serious stab at tariffs, in this weekend’s Big Beautiful Production for Security.

For now, the market’s muted response makes sense:

• The messaging from both the President, but particularly from Bessent, seem to be guiding to “more negotiations” into a “newish” August “sort of” deadline.

• Given prior pauses, extensions and pullbacks, it is reasonable for the market to assume that the latest round of tariffs (via letters) won’t amount to much (it was incredibly difficult not to include a joke about the post office losing the letters in the mail).

• This administration has been extremely busy. The President is very “hands on” and he had to give the decision to go ahead with the strike on Iran, he had to manage the process of getting the Big Beautiful Bill passed (which, we discussed in more detail this weekend), and he went to NATO to get 5% commitments. So the admin might just need the time to get refocused on trade deals as they likely took a backseat to those pressing issues.

• While the market is right not to get too concerned at the moment, there is a risk that it is being very complacent:

• The tariff revenue is real and the administration may want more of it, a LOT more of it.

• We don’t know what other countries are thinking. Messaging from many other countries seems to be that:

• The U.S. goals seem unclear and confusing, making deals difficult.

• Many countries seem to be thinking about tariffing “services” which they may decide is a good way for them to boost their tech industries where they are quite clearly behind and dependent on U.S. based firms (that would not be good).

Markets will be on edge, looking towards deals. Very little risk of new, higher tariffs is being priced into the market. That seems both plausible and dangerous from a positioning standpoint.

I’d rather fight the move in bond yields (10’s at 4.41%) than “buy the dip” as stock futures are already higher.

Maybe these tariff headlines are “fake news” but at the all-time highs, that is a might big assumption.

Federal government agencies terminated 54 contracts over two days that netted $804 million in savings, the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) said in a July 5 post on social media platform X.

The canceled “wasteful contracts” had a ceiling value of $1.8 billion, it said.

These include an “$842k USAID professional services contract for a ‘director of the Armenia innovation hub within the USAID/Armenia Economic Growth Office’ and a $33k USAGM contract for ‘24/7 FM broadcast services to the Togolese Republic.’”

As Naveen Athrappully reports for The Epoch Times, DOGE’s announcement follows Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s confirmation of the shutdown of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) on July 1, arguing that the foreign assistance provided by the agency failed to deliver results for Americans.

USAID was part of a “globe-spanning NGO industrial complex” funded by U.S. taxpayers, he said, using the abbreviation of “nongovernmental organization.”

In a July 6 post on X, DOGE commended the Office of Personnel Management for having cut its annual spending on federal contracts by 50 percent while “improving both the quality and scope of its services.”

For instance, the agency saved $5.9 million through restructuring the IT helpdesk while also instituting efficiency measures.

“As a result, the average ticket backlog dropped by 30 percent,” DOGE said.

According to a June 29 update by DOGE, the initiative has so far saved $190 billion in taxpayer funds through measures such as contract/lease cancellations and renegotiations, fraud and improper payment deletion, cancellation of grants, and asset sales.

This translates into roughly $1,180 saved per American taxpayer.

Some of the “strangest, most baffling uses” of government funding uncovered by DOGE include a $2.8 million grant to address “historic and systemic racial inequities” in STEM education and a $6.9 million grant for teaching social and emotional learning from an “antiracist approach.”

Agencies that have generated the most savings under DOGE include the Department of Health and Human Services, General Services Administration, Department of Education, and the Office of Personnel Management.

DOGE has been operating for more than a month without Elon Musk at its head. Musk left the initiative in May after his tenure as a special government employee expired.

Subsequently, Musk and President Donald Trump engaged in an escalating public feud over the One Big Beautiful Bill, which Trump signed into law on July 4.

Musk has criticized spending in the new law, saying it will increase the United States’ debt ceiling by $5 trillion.

Privacy Issue, Codifying DOGE Practices

DOGE has come under fire from Democrats over the issue of citizen privacy. In a June 8 letter to the acting inspector general of the Department of Education, Democrat lawmakers accused the agency of refusing to provide them with “key information” regarding DOGE’s “infiltration” of the department.

This includes DOGE employees’ access to sensitive data, the letter said.

“Because of the Department’s refusal to provide full and complete information, the full extent of DOGE’s role and influence at [the Department of Education] remains unknown,” the lawmakers wrote.

“This lack of clarity is not only frustrating for borrowers but also dangerous for the future of an agency that handles an extensive student loan portfolio and a range of federal aid programs for higher education.”

Meanwhile, Republican lawmakers introduced the “DOGE in Spending Act” last month, which aims to codify DOGE practices to identify and prevent improper and fraudulent payments, according to a June 5 statement from the office of Sen. Kevin Kramer (R-N.D.), one of the lawmakers who introduced the bill.

The act seeks to modernize the Treasury’s payment oversight system. It would require each federal disbursement to specify the purpose of the expenditure and the source of funding.

“From the moment he took office, President Trump laid out a clear agenda: eliminate waste, reduce unnecessary spending, and restore fiscal sanity to Washington,” Cramer said.

“The Department of Government Efficiency has delivered—cutting through layers of bureaucracy.

“This agency has taken a scalpel to the federal government, slashing misspending, and eliminating fraudulent and improper payments. By codifying DOGE’s best practices, we safeguard the taxpayer dollars of North Dakotans and Americans across the country.”

The bill has been referred to the Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs.

Among the more interesting highlights from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s visit to the White House on Monday was that during the Trump-hosted dinner, and at a moment the Gaza war is still raging, Bibi presented the US president with a letter nominating him for the Nobel Peace Prize.

Part of the stated rationale was that Trump pushed for a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, which has held, though the whole 12-day war seemed highly planned and choreographed between Washington and Tel Aviv. Widespread reports said that Trump greenlit Israel’s surprise attack and even set up a sham nuclear talks process in order to lull Iran into a false sense of comfort. The Abraham Accords were also a big reason for Netanyahu’s gesture.

“The president has already realized a great opportunity. He forged the Abraham Accords. He’s forging peace as we speak in one country and one region after the other,” Netanyahu said. “So, I want to present to you, Mr. President, the letter I sent to the Nobel Prize committee. It’s nominating you for the peace prize, which is well deserved.”

“This I didn’t know,” Trump said upon receiving and looking over the letter. “Wow. Thank you very much. Coming from you in particular, this is very meaningful.”

But ironically, at this very moment the region is still on fire – literally and figuratively. War is flaring up again the Red Sea and in Yemen, Israel’s military is still taking on mass casualties and inflicting them on the Palestinian population in Gaza, and Syria is now overrun by various terrorist groups in the wake of Assad’s fall. Israel’s military is also still taking occasional shots at Lebanon, including bombing raids.

As its stands, President Trump doesn’t seem in the mood to employ the standard two-state solution talking point of pretty much all past and recent administrations. He responded, “I don’t know” when he was asked by reporters whether a two-state solution was possible.

Netanyahu, for his part, explained that “After October 7th, people said the Palestinians have a state, a Hamas state in Gaza and look what they did with it. They didn’t build it up. They built down into bunkers, into terror tunnels after which they massacred our people, raped our women, beheaded our men, invaded our cities and our towns, our kibbutzim and did horrendous massacres, the kind of which we didn’t see since World War II and the Nazis, the Holocaust. So people aren’t likely to say, ‘Let’s just give them another state.’ It’ll be a platform to destroy Israel.”

Netanyahu seems to be saying it’s ‘either us or them’ in terms of who is fated for destruction. His brutal policies in Gaza also speak loudest.

“We will work out a peace with our Palestinian neighbors, those who don’t want to destroy us and we will work out a peace in which our security, the sovereign power of security, always remains in our hands,” Netanyahu continued.

“Now people will say, ‘It’s not a complete state, it’s not a state, it’s not that.’ We don’t care. We vowed never again. Never again is now. It’s not going to happen again.”

Another interesting moment from the White House dinner, related to Syria and regional geopolitics:

Trump finally publicly admitted that Netanyahu asked him to lift sanctions on Syria, in case anyone is still denying Jolani’s utility for Israel.

Trump was very impressed by Jolani and said his tough background (ISIS/AQ) makes sense, since “he’s from a tough part of the world.” pic.twitter.com/cX3URpNQUp

— Lindsey Snell (@LindseySnell) July 8, 2025

Trump has appeared generally supportive of this more hawkish and unbending stance from the Israeli leader, even as diplomats in the region continue to forge ahead on renewed ceasefire talks between Hamas and Israel, which are being conducted ‘indirectly’.

Authored by Michael Snyder via TheMostImportantNews.com,

I literally feel sick right now.  After waiting for years for the truth about Jeffrey Epstein’s sex trafficking operation to come out, and after months of being promised that stunning new information would be released soon, now we are being told to forget the entire thing.  The people that were brought in to run the Justice Department and the FBI were supposed to restore faith in the system, but instead they are destroying it.  Nobody that can think rationally is buying the lies that we are being fed.  

Apparently we are supposed to believe that Jeffrey Epstein didn’t have a client list, he never blackmailed anyone, and he was solely responsible for his own death…

A Justice Department and FBI review of the investigation related to disgraced late financier Jeffrey Epstein found that there was no “client list” or evidence that he blackmailed prominent figures, according to a memo detailing the findings.

The review also concluded that Epstein died by suicide while in custody at a Manhattan correctional facility in August 2019. Epstein was facing federal sex trafficking charges, and his death was subsequently investigated by the Justice Department’s internal watchdog and the FBI.

The Justice Department and FBI said in their memo that video footage reviewed by bureau investigators — and made available to the public — confirmed that Epstein was locked in his cell and nobody entered tiers of the unit where he was housed at the time of his death.

The Justice Department and the FBI are now facing an unprecedented credibility problem, because millions of us simply do not believe them.

After everything that has happened, the American people deserve some answers.  The following are 12 important questions that all Americans should be asking about the shameful attempt to cover up the truth about Jeffrey Epstein.

#1 Why were Jeffery Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell arrested and charged with operating an enormous sex trafficking ring that supposedly involved thousands of clients if no such clients ever existed?  As Robby Starbuck has pointed out, apparently we are supposed to believe that all of the powerful men that visited Epstein’s island were “just there to catch some waves and relax”…

#2 Why did U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi tell Fox News in February that Epstein’s client list was “sitting on my desk right now to review” if no such client list ever existed?…

U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi on Friday said the Jeffrey Epstein client list is “sitting on my desk right now” and she is reviewing the JFK and MLK files as well after President Donald Trump’s earlier directives.

“It’s sitting on my desk right now to review,” Bondi told ‘America Reports’ host John Roberts on Friday. “That’s been a directive by President Trump.”

#3 What was in the “thousands of documents” related to the Epstein case that were suddenly discovered in February?…

Attorney General Pam Bondi has been made aware of “thousands of documents” related to the investigation into Jeffrey Epstein that were previously not disclosed to her office, she said in a letter on Thursday.

#4 When Bondi claimed that the Epstein flight logs would “make you sick” in March, what did she mean by that?…

Attorney general Pam Bondi released hundreds of pages of information connected to Epstein in March, promising it would disclose “a lot of names” and flight logs that would “make you sick”.

#5 In May, Bondi confessed that there were “tens of thousands of videos” related to the Epstein investigation.  What was in those videos?…

She said in May that the FBI was reviewing “tens of thousands of videos” of Epstein “with children or child porn.” Bondi’s comments and the delay in releasing the next batch of documents have tapped into suspicions that damaging details about Epstein or other prominent figures remain hidden.

#6 Other than Jeffery Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell, why hasn’t anyone else that was involved in the sex trafficking operation ever been arrested?…

#7 The memo that was released on Sunday night says that there will be “no further disclosure” in this case.  Does this mean that the Trump administration’s search for the truth ends here?…

In a memo published by Axios Sunday night, the DOJ and FBI jointly stated that the Epstein files did not include a client list, or evidence of additional perpetrators — and that there will be “no further disclosure” of information on the case.

“This systematic review revealed no incriminating ‘client list,’” The memo said. “There was also no credible evidence found that Epstein blackmailed prominent individuals as part of his actions. We did not uncover evidence that could predicate an investigation against uncharged third parties.”

#8 The memo also states that there is no “evidence that could predicate an investigation against uncharged third parties”.  Does this mean that none of the men that were having sex with underage girls will ever be brought to justice?…

Investigators found “no incriminating ‘client list’ ” of Epstein’s, “no credible evidence … that Epstein blackmailed prominent individuals,” and no “evidence that could predicate an investigation against uncharged third parties,” the memo adds.

#9 On the night that Epstein died, why were there so many strange “coincidences”?…

The jail had been told Epstein should have a cellmate, and that a guard must check on him every 30 minutes.

But on the night he died, his cellmate was transferred and not replaced and he was not checked on as often as required.

Two guards fell asleep at their desks – and later falsified their records.

Meanwhile, two cameras in front of Epstein’s cell malfunctioned that night – while another’s footage was “unusable”.

#10 Hours of video footage from outside Epstein’s cell on the night that he died has been released.  Did they think that we wouldn’t notice that a full minute has been cut out of that video footage?…

But now we can confirm that an entire minute was cut from the DOJ video that was released last night. Why? What are they hiding?

If you follow the full video you can see for yourself that the video is cut off at 11:59:00.

The video feed then restarts exactly at 12:00:00.

Where is the missing video?

#11 During the time that Elon Musk had unprecedented access to the government’s computer systems, did he learn some startling truths about the Epstein investigation?  If so, will he reveal what he knows now that he has started his own political party?

#12 Why was this memo about the Epstein case released to the public late on Sunday night on the 4th of July weekend?  Were they hoping that it would make as little news as possible?

I am so upset.

The victims of Epstein’s sex trafficking operation are never going to get any justice.

And all of the very sick men that committed unspeakable crimes are never going to be held accountable.

A line has been crossed that will never be able to be uncrossed.

How are we supposed to have faith in our federal law enforcement agencies after this?

They are lying to our faces and they are convinced that they are totally getting away with it.

There are some moments in history that are so horrifying that they will never be forgotten.

This is one of those moments.

*  * *

Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

US equity futures rise as Trump leaves the door open for more discussions despite the 14 tariff letters sent yesterday and the extension of the deadline to Aug 1 which is “not 100% firm.” As of 8:15am ET, S&P futures rise 0.1% and Nasdaq futures gain 0.2% after US markets retreated on Monday from ATH on the back of increased tariffs on countries if deals are not reached (Japan/South Korea’s 25% were standouts). Pre-market, Mag7 names are all higher, while industrials are leading cyclicals with financials mixed. 10Y TSY yields are higher by 3bps to 4.41% as the curve bear steepens and the USD is higher after erasing an earlier loss. Commodities are generally weaker although Brent crude has once again rebounded from session lows to trade just shy of $70/bbl.  The macro data focus today is on Small Biz Optimism (prints in line with expectations), 1-year Inflation Expectations, and an update on Consumer Credit. 

In premarket trading, Magnificent Seven stocks are all higher (Tesla +1%, Nvidia +0.7%, Meta +0.5%, Amazon +0.3%, Alphabet +0.4%, Microsoft is little changed, Apple +0.06%).

• Clean energy stocks including Enphase Energy (ENPH) and SolarEdge (SEDG) fall after President Donald Trump called for new rules that would restrict access to tax incentives for solar and wind projects that were already pared back in his $3.4 trillion budget bill. Enphase Energy -2.9%, SolarEdge -6%
• Capital One Financial Corp. (COF) rises about 1% after TD Cowen analyst Moshe Orenbuch raised the recommendation on the credit-card issuer to buy from hold, seeing upside after its purchase of Discover and the potential for significant buybacks in the future.
• Ciena (CIEN) falls 3% as Morgan Stanley cuts to underweight, citing a lack of margin upside in the near term.
• Circle Internet (CRCL) slips about 2% after the stablecoin issuer was initiated with a second sell-equivalent rating, this time at Mizuho, with the bank seeing a 25% to 30% potential downside to consensus revenue for 2027.
• Datadog (DDOG) falls 2.5% as Guggenheim Securities cut to sell from neutral citing to near-term OpenAI optimization risk.
• Merit Medical Systems Inc. (MMSI) rises 2% after the the catheter maker reported preliminary 2Q revenue that topped estimates and named a veteran of Medtronic as its next CEO.
• UWM Holdings (UWMC) is up 2.3% after an upgrade to overweight from equal-weight by Barclays, which says the stock looks discounted enough to step in.

For stock markets, TACO Tuesday’s calm reflected traders’ belief in a familiar pattern of US President Donald Trump escalating his trade war only to later de-escalate. In the latest round, Trump said he was still open to negotiations and postponed duties of 25% or more on a list for trading partners until at least Aug. 1.

“Equity markets are focused on the positive news,” said Wolf von Rotberg, equity strategist at Bank J. Safra Sarasin. “Europe is working toward securing a framework agreement with the US and the July 9th deadline was pushed out by another month. The market has learned to focus on the facts more than following the talk.”

Ongoing talks with the European Union are likely to draw particular attention. The bloc is seeking to finalize a preliminary agreement this week that would lock in a 10% tariff rate beyond Aug. 1 while a permanent deal is hammered out.

The prospect of a better-than-expected trade deal helped boost the euro. The common currency rose as much as 0.5%, extending gains for the year as traders reacted to a Politico report that said the US offered a deal that would keep the 10% baseline tariffs, with exemptions for sensitive sectors. 

“The fact that higher tariffs have become the default if no deal is reached does introduce a layer of risk that markets will have to price in,” said Daniela Sabin Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com. “The dollar could struggle as this would have a negative impact on the growth outlook in the US.” 

So far, the US economy has held up under the threat of a spiraling global trade war. Hiring is healthy, while the S&P 500 hit an all-time high last week.  Still, some investors remain cautious that persistent policy uncertainty, along with concerns over rising levels of government debt and geopolitical headwinds, could eventually catch up with markets.

“Investors betting on the TACO trade might gradually face some disappointment,” said Raphael Thuin, head of capital markets strategies at Tikehau Capital in Paris. “There’s a real possibility that tariffs are here to stay beyond Trump’s mandate as a permanent fiscal tool to fund growing deficits.”

European stocks are in a narrow range, with Stoxx 600 fluctuating between gains and losses as European Union negotiators rushed to conclude a preliminary trade deal with the US to avoid a spike in tariffs, with miners, financial services and travel stocks outperforming, while real estate shares lag. Drinkmakers gain on tariff news, while renewables drop as the Trump administration targets tax breaks. Germany’s DAX marginally outperforms. Here are the most notable European movers:

• Kinnevik gains as much as 6.1% after the Swedish investment group reported its latest earnings. Degroof says the results were “slightly better than expected,” with net asset values above the broker’s estimates
• Zealand Pharma shares rise as much as 3.5%, among the top performers in the Stoxx 600 Health Care Index on Tuesday, after Barclays initiated coverage on the stock with an overweight recommendation
• Shares of drinksmakers rise after reports saying the European Union is seeking an exemption from the US tariff for certain products; Remy Cointreau gains as much as 4.2%, Pernod Ricard +3.6%, Campari +2.7%
• Glencore shares rise as much as 2.1% after JPMorgan resumed its coverage with an overweight recommendation, citing value-accretive strategic optionality and a potential coal de-merger
• NTG Nordic Transport Group rises as much as 4.7% after being awarded a new overweight rating from Barclays, with analysts arguing the stock is inexpensive and has significant potential upside
• Renewables stocks fall in Europe as President Donald Trump called for new rules that would restrict access to tax incentives for solar and wind projects that were already pared back in his $3.4 trillion budget bill
• Dr Martens and Pandora are among stocks underperforming in Europe after President Trump outlined plans to impose tariffs on goods from key supplier countries including Indonesia, Thailand and Cambodia
• TGS shares drop as much as 12%, the most since April, after the Norwegian geophysical services company reported preliminary second-quarter results. The company noted “challenging operational conditions”
• Betsson shares drop as much as 6.1%, the most in three months, after DNB Carnegie downgrades the stock to hold from buy. Analysts note that the online gaming firm is set for a period of slower revenue growth
• Victrex shares slump as much as 15% to the lowest since August 2009 as the polymer supplier’s trading update disappoints analysts, who see scope for double-digit cuts to full-year pretax expectations
• AB Dynamics shares drop as much as 1.2% after the company announced that CEO James Routh is leaving the business to take up the same role at fellow London-listed Victrex
• BNP Paribas Bank Polska drops as much as 5.1% after the European Bank for Reconstruction & Development sold 2.35m shares via accelerated book-building at discount to Monday’s closing price

Earlier in the session, stocks in Asia advanced as investors shrugged off US President Donald Trump’s tariff announcements and focused on room for further negotiations. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.4%, with SK Hynix and Hitachi providing the biggest lift while BHP Group and Nintendo weighed on performance. South Korea and Japan both advanced on cautious hopes that the countries can reach trade deals ahead of Trump’s newly-extended tariff deadline. Trump earlier sent letters to Tokyo and Seoul, threatening levies of 25% beginning Aug. 1. Elsewhere in the region, Hong Kong shares rose, helped by a rebound in e-commerce giants Meituan and Alibaba. Their shares had been falling recently due to concerns over an intensifying price war in the food delivery business. 

In FX, we initially saw broad dollar weakness after President Trump suggested he’s open to more negotiations on tariffs beyond an August 1 deadline, but that weakness has since reversed and the dollar is trading near yesterday’s highs. Aussie dollar tops G-10 peers after the RBA surprise. The yen underperforms.

In rates, bonds sell off across Europe and the US, taking their cue from jitters in Japan over the country’s political situation and associated fiscal risks. Japanese 30-year bond yields rose as much as 13 basis points. Australian bonds also slump after the RBA unexpectedly kept interest rates unchanged. That fed into weakness in the long-end across Europe. 30-year bund yields hit the highest level since March, benchmark 10-year yields up by around five basis points across countries. A flurry of supply is also weighing. 10-year Treasury yields up three basis points to 4.415%, at session highs with German and UK counterparts cheaper by an additional 2bp. Treasury auction cycle begins with $58 billion 3-year new issue at 1pm New York time, followed by $39 billion 10-year and $22 billion 30-year reopenings Wednesday and Thursday. WI 3-year yield near 3.875% is about 10bp richer than last month’s, which tailed by 0.4bp.

In commodities, gold is down by $12 to around $3,324/oz. Oil prices lower, Brent drops 0.7% to just over $69/barrel.

Looking at today’s calendar, US economic data slate includes June NY Fed 1-year inflation expectations (11am) and May consumer credit (3pm). The Fed speaker slate blank, with minutes of June FOMC meeting are to be released at 2pm tomorrow.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini +0.1%
• Nasdaq 100 mini +0.3%
• Russell 2000 mini +0.3%
• Stoxx Europe 600 little changed
• DAX +0.2%, CAC 40 little changed
• 10-year Treasury yield +3 basis points at 4.41%
• VIX -0.5 points at 17.28
• Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.2% at 1194.53
• euro +0.4% at $1.175
• WTI crude -0.7% at $67.45/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Following Trump announcing 25% tariffs on good from Japan starting Aug 1, Japan and the US are “actively” continuing negotiations. A Top trade negotiator from Japan said Japan’s trade deal with the U.S. must include tariff concessions for its vital automobile industry. RTRS
• Trump said Monday the U.S. would resume providing Ukraine with arms to help it withstand Russian attacks after months of trying without success to draw Moscow into negotiations on ending the war. WSJ
• President Trump on Monday indicated there may be some wiggle room for nations to negotiate on trade despite his fresh threat of additional tariffs going into effect on Aug. 1. When asked, he said “No, I would say firm, but not 100 percent firm. If they call up and they say ‘we’d like to do something a different way,’ we’re going to be open to that. But essentially that’s the way it is right now.” The Hill
• Apple’s top AI models executive Ruoming Pang is leaving for Meta’s new superintelligence group, people familiar said, marking another setback in the iPhone maker’s struggling AI efforts. BBG
• Kevin Warsh, one of the lead candidates to replace Powell as Fed chief, said rates should be lower and doesn’t think tariffs will fuel inflation. BBG
• China has strongly criticized companies and local governments for fuelling overproduction that it blames for driving down prices, as inflation figures this week are expected to show that one of the country’s longest bouts of factory price deflation is running unchecked. FT
• China warned the Trump administration on Tuesday against reigniting trade tension by restoring tariffs on its goods next month, and threatened to retaliate against nations that strike deals with the United States to cut China out of supply chains. RTRS
• Europe’s largest port is gearing up for a potential conflict with Russia by reserving space for ships carrying military supplies and planning where to divert cargo if war breaks out. FT
• Samsung’s profit more than halved on inventory writedowns following US curbs on Chinese-bound AI chips. BBG
• China’s CPCA says Tesla exported 10,115 Chinese-made vehicles in June (May 23,074)

Trade/Tariffs

• US President Trump said regarding tariffs that the August 1st deadline is firm but he is open to other ideas, while Trump said he is close to making a trade deal with India and may adjust tariffs for some countries.
• White House announced that President Trump signed an executive order extending the tariff deadline to August 1st.
• US reportedly offered the EU a 10% tariff deal with caveats, although negotiations are still fluid, with any trade agreement subject to final approval by US President Trump, according to POLITICO.
• EU Commission President von der Leyen said Europe must show strength in trade negotiations with the US. Thereafter, German Finance Minister says if the EU does not reach a “fair” deal with he US, the bloc is ready to take counter-measures.
• Japanese PM Ishiba said haven’t been able to reach an agreement because Japan kept defending what needs to be defended, and will continue dialogue with the US and seek a chance of agreeing on a deal that benefits both countries. Ishiba added they were able to avert a hike in tariffs to 30%-35%, as result of past negotiations, and the US has proposed to continue talks until the new August 1st deadline.
• Japanese Finance Minister Kato said they expect the US stance to change as they continue trade negotiations, while they will take necessary steps to help industries cope with US tariffs while communicating with other agencies.
• Japanese Tariff Negotiator Akazawa held a call with US Commerce Secretary Lutnick. Agreed to actively engage in trade negotiations. Auto sector is core to Japan’s economy, can not tolerate the fact 25% tariffs on autos, and the auto parts tariff is inflicting huge losses on Japanese firms. No point in striking a US deal without an autos agreement.
• South Korea will step up trade negotiations with the US to win mutually beneficial results and clear up uncertainties caused by tariffs, while it added that trade talks with the US will be a chance to advance both countries’ key industries through the ‘Renaissance Partnership’.
• The UK is set to miss the original deadline to close its steel/aluminium trade deal with the US, according to Sky’s Conway; Insiders say still some way from a breakthrough. However, “they are hopeful Donald Trump won’t raise UK tariffs from 25% to 50% for the time being, despite having promised to on July 9th”.
• Indian refiners reportedly plan to source around 10% of LPG imports from the US in 2026 in an attempt to reach a trade deal, according to Reuters sources.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks mostly traded with cautious gains as participants digested the latest trade-related developments including US President Trump’s tariff letters to 14 countries so far including Japan, South Korea, South Africa, and Thailand with tariff rates ranging between 25%-40% and warnings against retaliation, although he also signed an Executive Order to delay the tariff deadline to August 1st. ASX 200 was indecisive as strength in tech and gold producers offset the losses in defensives, while an improvement in NAB Business Confidence was met with little fanfare as participants awaited the RBA rate decision which ultimately disappointed as the central bank defied the broad consensus for the first back-to-back cut since the pandemic, and instead decided to pause on rates through a 6-3 majority vote. Nikkei 225 recouped initial losses as recent currency weakness helped investors shrug off the tariff-related news with Japan facing a 25% tariff which is slightly higher than the 24% rate announced on Liberation Day. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were underpinned with the PBoC to support more onshore investors to invest in offshore bonds, while it will also expand the Bond Connect to include Chinese brokers, funds, wealth managers and insurers.

Top Asian News

• PBoC said it will support more onshore investors to invest in offshore bonds and will expand the bond connect to include Chinese brokers, funds, wealth managers and insurers, while it will also increase the quota under the swap connect.
• Chinese President Xi stressed developing the real economy to build up national strength and said the real economy should not be abandoned, nor should the traditional industries, according to Xinhua.
• Chinese Premier Li Qiang said China is confident in driving economic growth and has the resources to counter external headwinds.
• RBA unexpectedly kept the Cash Rate unchanged at 3.85% (exp. 25bps cut) with the decision made by a majority of 6-3 votes, while it stated that the Board will be attentive to the data and evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions. RBA also noted that inflation has continued to moderate and the outlook remains uncertain although the Board continues to judge that the risks to inflation have become more balanced and the labour market remains strong. Furthermore, the Board remains cautious about the outlook, particularly given the heightened level of uncertainty about both aggregate demand and supply and it judged that it could wait for a little more information to confirm that inflation remains on track to reach 2.5% on a sustainable basis.
• RBA Governor Bullock says there will be more data and news by the next meeting. Made good progress on inflation, been within the target range for only one quarter thus far. Effect of 50bps of cuts is still to flow through. CPI interpretation was different to the markets, decision was about timing rather than direction; monthly CPI is too volatile, the quarterly figure could be higher. Confident they are on a path to ease further. On an easing path, timing is the question. Was an active debate within the RBA boardroom, the difference between the sides was not about direction. Bullock will not say how she voted.

European bourses opened higher, welcoming Trump’s confirmation that the new tariff deadline is August 1st and as Monday’s letters did not have any narrative-shifting surprises. Since, benchmarks have come off best and are either side of the unchanged mark, Euro Stoxx 50 U/C. Sectors in-fitting with the above and as such are now mixed. Basic Resources lead amid gains in Glencore (+2.5%) after an upgrade by and favourable commentary from JPMorgan. Retail at the other end, hit by the tariff letters on Asian manufacturing nations which are a key destination for European names such as Pandora (-1.1%).

Top European News

• German Finance Minister Klingbeil says they see that economic sentiment has improved.
• UK OBR says “public finances in relatively vulnerable position and facing mounting risks”, adds UK debt set to exceed 270% of GDP by early 2070s.

FX

• USD has been giving back some of Monday’s gains, upside that occurred alongside an increase in angst into the tariff letters. Ultimately, the main takeaway was Trump providing more time for negotiation and as such the TACO trade remains in play. DXY is currently tucked within yesterday’s 96.89-97.66 range, currently just off highs of 97.43.
• AUD outperforms as the RBA surprisingly kept rates unchanged in a 6-3 vote, despite markets pricing in a 95% chance of a move pre-release. AUD/USD back above 0.65 but yet to breach Monday’s 0.6564 peak.
• Upside that has pulled the Kwi along with it, NZD/USD has made its way back onto a 0.60 handle but is still some way off yesterday’s 0.6063 high (current session peak @ 0.6034).
• EUR the next best, benefitting from reports which suggest 10% baseline tariffs remain an option for the EU. EUR/USD is currently firmer, just off a 1.1765 peak within Monday’s 1.1686-1.1790 range.
• GBP just about in the green against the USD, but Cable is back to its earlier 1.36 base. A bout of further pressure emerged on an OBR risk report which laid out that “public finances in relatively vulnerable position and facing mounting risks”, adds UK debt set to exceed 270% of GDP by early 2070s
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1534 vs exp. 7.1772 (Prev. 7.1506)

Fixed Income

• Complex pushed lower by the tariff deadline extension and a packed supply docket.
• USTs saw a slightly softer start to the day, given the constructive risk tone. Similar story for EGBs and Gilts, though the magnitude of downside has increased throughout the morning, USTs to a 110-25+ trough, taking out Monday’s 110-29 base and now teetering just above 110-25, the WTD low from the last week of June.
• EGBs also dented, but with losses much more pronounced. Bunds lower by near 50 ticks. As referenced, pressure in EGBs has been increasing, an intensification that began alongside the constructive European cash equity open; furthermore, supply is weighing and the passing of some taps e.g. Germany failed to provide any relief (unsurprising, the German auction was somewhat soft and we await details on EU supply).
• For the most part, an absence of specifics for the UK. No follow through in Gilts from the OBR reporting that domestic finances are in a “relatively vulnerable position and face mounting risks”. Nonetheless, Gilts lag with downside intensifying and the benchmark now looking to lows from mid-June, incl. 91.16.
• Germany sells EUR 3.754bln vs exp. EUR 5bln 2.20% 2030 Bobl: b/c 1.50x, average yield 2.26% & retention 24.92%.

Commodities

• Crude benchmarks are lacklustre, largely unaffected by trade updates with volumes light and awaiting further geopolitical updates from the Middle-East; Brent trades within a narrow USD 69.03 to 69.61/bbl range, re-approaching overnight lows following news regarding the resumption of Israel-Hamas Doha talks.
• Precious metals softer, dented by the broadly constructive risk tone in-fitting with pressure seen in other traditional havens (i.e. fixed and JPY). Though, downside is limited thus far with the softer USD and general tariff uncertainty, despite the welcome confirmation of an August 1st deadline, preventing a more concerted move lower. XAU down to a USD 3324/oz base and within Monday’s USD 3296-3343/oz band.
• Base metals, in contrast, welcome Trump signing an executive order pushing the tariff deadline to August 1st (prev. July 9th) and as the first batch of tariff letters didn’t contain anything particularly shocking. 3M LME Copper holds at the upper-end of a USD 9793-9889 band. However, it remains shy of Monday’s USD 9871 peak and last week’s USD 9889 best.
• US President Trump signed an Executive Order aiming to end subsidies for foreign-controlled energy sources.

Geopolitics

• US President Trump said he’s got great cooperation from countries neighbouring Israel, when asked about Palestinian relocation plans. Trump noted Iran talks are scheduled and that Iran will not be a nuclear state, while he hopes they don’t have to do another strike on Iran.
• White House said US Envoy Witkoff is to travel to Doha later this week for a Gaza ceasefire, while it was separately reported that Witkoff said they have an opportunity to get a peace deal in Gaza and that the Iran meeting will be in the next week or so.
• Subsequently, Iran’s MFA Spokesman told state TV: “We have not handed in any requests to meet with the Americans”, via France24.
• UKMTO says a vessel sustained significant damage and lost all propulsion after being attacked by 5 rocket grenades, 51NM West of Yemen’s Hodeidah; vessel is under continuous attack and authorities are investigating.
• Ceasefire talks with Gaza have recommenced, in Doha, via journalist Elster (08:49BST/03:49ET).
• US President Trump said they have to send more weapons to Ukraine and that they have to defend themselves, while the Pentagon later announced the Department of Defense will send additional defensive weapons to Ukraine.
• German Foreign Ministry says the Chinese Military has used a laser to target a German aircraft in EU operation aspides; Chinese ambassador summoned,

US Event Calendar

• 6:00 am: Jun NFIB Small Business Optimism, est. 98.6, prior 98.8
• 3:00 pm: May Consumer Credit, est. 10.55b, prior 17.87b

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

A quiet day where we were all waiting for tariff news sprung into life just after Europe closed yesterday as the first major tariff news of the week broke. In a series of posts on social media, President Trump announced new tariff rates on several trading partners. He started off by announcing 25% tariff rates against Japan and South Korea, effective August 1st. This was followed by “trade letters” to a further twelve countries including South Africa (30% rate), Malaysia (25%), and Indonesia (32%). President Trump also said that “any goods transshipped to evade a higher tariff will be subject to that higher tariff,” while noting that these would be separate from the sectoral tariffs. The headline rates for most countries announced yesterday were around the same levels as the Liberation Day tariffs, but President Trump also said that if countries were to raise their tariffs in response, then “whatever number” they choose will be added onto the 25% charged by the US.

White House Press Secretary Leavitt announced that more letters will be arriving throughout the week. After sending the posts, the President signed an executive order that effectively delays the new tariff rates until August 1, prolonging the current 10% tariff rate and giving nations more time to meet the trade demands from the White House. The President continued to signal he was open to deals, saying the August 1st deadline was “not 100% firm” and that they could “maybe adjust a little bit, depending.” Overnight, Politico reported that while a US-EU trade deal had not been finalised, the US had offered the EU a 10% tariff rate with caveats. Given the higher rates seen earlier in the day for other trading partners, the EUR has rallied (+0.32%) overnight and is back to levels before the letters started rolling out yesterday. 

Stocks fell in response to the tariff news, although the S&P 500, which closed -0.79%, was already -0.6% just before the announcement in anticipation of the noon Washington timeline that had been given over the weekend with regards to letters being sent out. The index was down -1.25% at the lows of the day, before rebounding as investors priced in the possibility of trade deals getting over the line for larger trading partners before putative tariffs kick in.

Within US equity markets, the Magnificent 7 (-1.03%) underperformed while following a similar pattern to the broad index, although the index was also weighed down by Tesla (-6.79%), which saw the biggest decline in the entire S&P after Musk announced the formation of the “America Party” over the weekend. Small caps, which have less margin to absorb tariff costs, underperformed by even more as the Russell 2000 fell by -1.55%. Meanwhile, US Treasuries also struggled, with the 10yr yield up +3.4bps to 4.379%, whilst the 30yr yield (+5.4bps) rose to 4.92%. In turn, that helped to support the US Dollar index (+0.31%), which has stabilised around a 3-year low in the last week. 

President Trump posted late on Sunday that any country aligning with the “Anti-American policies” of the BRICS would face an added 10% tariff, and this didn’t help the likes of Brazil’s IBOVESPA (-1.26%). The 10 member states met in Rio Janeiro over the weekend, where they condemned US and Israeli strikes on Iran, as well as the US unilateral tariffs. So, yet another tariff threat that adds to the uncertainty.

In the meantime, one ongoing theme was the continued pressure on the Fed from the administration. That came as Peter Navarro wrote in a Substack post that Chair Powell’s policy was causing American households “acute financial pain” and that if Powell “will not voluntarily adjust course, the board must act decisively to prevent further economic harm.” We’ll get the June FOMC meeting minutes release tomorrow, so that should offer more details on how officials are thinking about rate cuts. At face value, the latest tariff letters, and the fact that the deadlines seem to be pushing towards August 1st, thus prolonging uncertainty, means a September Fed cut will become more difficult unless there is strong evidence of a deteriorating economy. 

Over in Europe, equities had put in a more positive performance, but closed before the stream of tariff headlines came through. Sentiment was also boosted, however, by hopes of a trade deal, with EU spokespeople earlier confirming to Bloomberg that they were close to a trade agreement with the US, after a “good exchange” between Von Der Leyen and President Trump. So that meant the STOXX 600 (+0.44%) and the DAX (+1.20%) both advanced. European futures are only lower by around a couple of tenths this morning. Away from the EU, the FTSE 100 (-0.19%) lagged behind yesterday. European sovereign bonds traded more in line with US Treasuries, with yields on 10yr bunds (+3.6bps), OATs (+4.2bps) and BTPs (+4.7bps) all moving higher. We also found out German industrial production rose +1.2% in May (vs. -0.2% expected), which was relatively stronger than the French and Spanish numbers last week. 

Asian equity markets are higher this morning shrugging off the threats of increased US trade tariffs as President Trump left the door open for additional trade negotiations. Across the region, the KOSPI (+1.46%) is leading gains while the Hang Seng (+0.86%), the CSI (+0.74%), the Shanghai Composite (+0.58%) and the Nikkei (+0.28%) are also higher. The S&P/ASX 200 (-0.19%) is trading lower but has hardly had time to react to a surprise 6-3 decision, just before we go to print, to hold rates rather than cut them as widely expected. The RBA’s statement pointed to an “uncertain outlook” as the reason for holding rates. The Australian dollar reacted sharply, jumping to 0.6539 against the dollar, while policy-sensitive 3-year government bond yields have climbed 14bps, 10 of which have come in the last few minutes after the decision. Governor Michele Bullock’s upcoming press briefing is now the focus of market attention. Elsewhere US equity futures are flat to up a tenth of a percent. 

On geopolitics, yesterday Iran announced that Israel had tried to assassinate its President during last month’s attacks, and that US strikes has severely damaged its nuclear infrastructure and equipment. In an interview with Tucker Carlson on Monday, Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshhkian said that the US could resolve its differences with Iran through dialogue and talks, but said it was difficult to trust the US and asked how they could be sure Israel wouldn’t be given permission to attack again. Amidst the newsflow, WTI rose +1.39% to $67.9/bbl and Brent crude was up +1.87% to $69.58/bbl even with the surprise oil production increases announced by OPEC+ over the weekend. It’s back down around half a percent this morning. 

To the day ahead now, we’ll have the US June NFIB small business optimism, the NY Fed’s inflation expectations, and Germany’s trade balance for May. Central bank speakers include the ECB’s Nagel. 

In today’s fast-paced world, finding a healthy balance between life and work is becoming more important than ever.

This infographic, via Visual Capitalist’s Bruno Venditti, ranks countries based on how well they support this balance in 2025. The results highlight the nations that prioritize well-being alongside productivity.

The data for this visualization comes from Remote.com. It evaluates 20 countries on metrics like paid leave, maternity benefits, minimum wage, healthcare, safety, and happiness to produce a composite life-work balance index.

New Zealand and Ireland Lead the Way

New Zealand tops the list with an index score of 86.9 of 100, offering 32 days of statutory annual leave and 26 weeks of fully paid maternity leave. Ireland follows with similarly generous benefits, including universal healthcare and a high minimum wage. According to the OECD, countries with robust social protections often report higher worker satisfaction and mental health outcomes.

Northern Europe Offers Extensive Time Off

Scandinavian countries such as Norway, Denmark, and Finland rank high due to long paid leave and universal healthcare. Norway, notably, provides up to 49 weeks of 100% paid maternity leave. These countries consistently score well on happiness and life satisfaction indexes, driven by social equality and support systems.

Healthcare and Wages Influence Ranking

Countries with universal healthcare and higher minimum wages generally perform better in the index. Canada, Australia, and the UK all offer universal systems and competitive wages, though they differ in maternity support.

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out Mapping Global Happiness By Country in 2025 on Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist.

Via Remix News,

Ukraine was widely recognized as the most corrupt country even before the Ukraine war, but since war broke out and tens of billions of euros have flowed into the country, corruption has flourished like never before.

Swiss newspaper Neue Züricher Zeitung details how a clique of oligarchs, many of them close to President Volodymyr Zelensky, have grown famously wealthy.

“These big businessmen are profiting enormously from the war, while also being patriotic, pro-Western and very discreet,” wrote the Swiss Neue Züricher Zeitung‘s (NZZ) Kyiv correspondent, Guillaume Ptak.

In other words, instead of showing off with sports cars, these new oligarchs know they have to keep their wealth hidden amid a devastating war. The paper details five individuals who have profited enormously.

“The war, which has entered its fourth year, is proving to be a profitable field for businessmen like Andri Stawnizer, Andri Kobolev, Oleksander Hereha, Andri Kolodyuk, and Vasil Khmelnitsky. The quintet has established itself in the war economy, investing in rebuilding what the Russian army destroys time and again. earns a fortune in strategic sectors such as logistics, energy, or construction materials. Typical war profiteers? Sure. But not entirely,” writes the Swiss paper.

They are making a fortune in strategic sectors. While this could be considered typical war profiteering it is also seen in a more positive light, since they ultimately support the army and the civilian population. According to the NZZ journalist, they are therefore“not like their classic predecessors, who recovered after the change of regime. They were mostly swept away by the war. The new generation does not buy TVs, newspapers or representatives, nor parties or private armies.”

NZZ writes that this new generation of oligarchs is not like the old one, and that “reins are held by President Volodymyr Zelensky.”

While Ukrainian authorities welcome most of the new oligarchs, this does not mean that they automatically have good relations with the presidential office. The paper notes that Kobolev, in particular, was known for his anti-corruption activities even before the war. He reportedly does not have the best relationship with Zelensky and has now been charged with corruption himself.

As for the other four, the paper does not make any allegations of corruption, but Ukraine is known as a country where corruption is entrenched from the top to the bottom of the system. Many leading officials have been charged with corruption, but skeptics claim that in many cases, these are only the officials who ran afoul of someone with more power, who wanted to remove a rival or settle a score.

As NZZ notes, overpricing is common in public procurement across Ukraine, which often means businessmen are taking a cut on top of any services they provide, with others in the chain of decision-making receiving a cut.

While war has been profitable for Ukraine’s new oligarchs, NZZ writes that peace will likely pay off even more for them. When the war ends, they stand to make even bigger profits through reconstruction, agriculture, and mineral resources.

The issue of public corruption has drawn criticism from officials in other European states, many who worry about integrating Ukraine into the European Union.

“Ukraine is now ruled by an oligarchic regime that increasingly survives on external support. It is a state characterized by rampant corruption and an absence of genuine democratic frameworks,” said former German Finance Minister Oskar Lafontaine during an interview with Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung in January of this year.

In Ukraine, high-level corruption ranks second among the main concerns of Ukrainians after the Russian-Ukrainian war, a survey conducted by the National Agency for the Prevention of Corruption revealed. The results of the research previously presented by the Transcarpathian news portal Kárpáti Igaz Szó show that 71.6 percent of the population consider this to be the country’s second-biggest problem, and 73 percent of entrepreneurs think the same.

According to 87.9 percent of the population and 81.3 percent of businesses, the level of embezzlement in the country has increased compared to 2022. Many hold Zelensky responsible, with 47.5 percent of citizens and 48.3 percent of company representatives stating that combating corruption is the responsibility of the president and his office.

In contrast, 36.9 percent of respondents and 32.4 percent of business people say that the anti-corruption agency, or the Supreme Council, is the one that should take action to curb corruption. The responses also included claims that the Council of Ministers and ministries can be held accountable for the spread of corruption.

Read more here…

Most people are guilty of using a weak password at some point. But just how predictable can they be?

This infographic, via Visual Capitalist’s Marcus Lu, reveals the top 25 most commonly used passwords globally, from ‘123456’ to ‘password’.

Data & Discussion

The data for this visualization comes from NordPass, which analyzed the most frequently used passwords based on a 2.5TB database of credentials exposed by data breaches.

Numbers Still Reign Supreme

The top password—“123456”—was used over 3 million times in the dataset analyzed by NordPass. In fact, six of the top 10 passwords are purely numeric, highlighting how common predictable number patterns remain.

These types of passwords are among the easiest for hackers to guess using brute-force attacks, taking a matter of seconds.

Keyboard Patterns and Simple Words

Along with numbers, users often rely on keyboard sequences like “qwerty” or common words like “password” and “secret.” While these may be easy to remember, they’re also easy to hack. Variations like “Password” or “password1” offer little improvement in security.

How to Create a Strong Password

According to NordPass, your password should be at least 20 characters long and include uppercase and lowercase letters, numbers, and special symbols (e.g. @#$%). Some browsers, such as Google Chrome, can also suggest a strong password for you.

Additionally, NordPass suggests that you never reuse passwords. If one account were to be compromised, other accounts that share the same password could also be at risk.

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out The Five Most Common Cybersecurity Mistakes on Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist.