Authored by James Howard Kunstler,

Cage Match!

“…[W}e are closing in on more disclosures and fixing past wrongs to personnel. We’re making sure this is done correctly. But it’s absolutely getting done.”

 – Dan Bongino, Deputy Director, FBI

Who knows what to believe these days? Well, what would you expect after years, even decades, of anti-reality operations by everyone from the CIA to The New York Times to Harvard U. Is it any wonder that reality-optionality is making the people both apathetic and insane?

We are told now by the FBI that there is no evidence that Jeffrey Epstein ran a blackmail operation against the politicos of Western Civ, or that a “client list” existed, or that JE was murdered in his jail cell. It well might be true that there is no evidence, strictly speaking.

Messrs. Patel and Bongino, coming into office rather late in the Epstein game, were apparently left with big bag of nuthin. What else can they truthfully report? So, they had to put it out there, knowing a whole lot of people would be miffed. “We’ve got nuthin, sorry.” Were they chagrined to do that? Evidently so. Of course, this Epstein business has been going on for years and years and it is certainly possible that the most damning evidence has been destroyed by interested parties.

Personally, I find it implausible that absolutely nothing ever leaked, no video of, say, Tony Blair or Bill Clinton violating a child, if it ever happened. Everything else in our world leaks, eventually. And there were supposedly how many cameras around the Epstein properties, and how many thousands of hours of video recordings? There is more video of Bigfoot than of compromised Epstein bigshots. Just sayin’.

AG Pam Bondi, the FBIs boss, also has some ‘splainin’ to do. In February, she claimed to have the Epstein client list “sitting on my desk right now to review,” and hinted it would be released shortly. That material, when released, turned out to be the old dog-eared flight logs that have been circulating through every news outlet for years. Did she not know the difference between an alleged “client list” and the old flight logs? Let’s face it: seems kind of dumb. . . seems like the AG got played. . . and now the mob on “X” is having sport with her.

Among the miffed, apparently, is Elon Musk. At the height of his feud with Mr. Trump, on June 5, Elon put out a message on his “X” platform saying, “@realDonaldTrump is in the Epstein files. That is the real reason they have not been made public. Have a nice day, DJT!”. This intemperate utterance naturally prompts you to wonder: how (or what) might Elon know about any supposed Epstein evidence? At this point, the FBI might send somebody to inquire. Did Elon, who has more money than even Scrooge McDuck, somehow manage to buy up all those alleged blackmail tapes? Does he otherwise know where they might have disappeared to? Has he ever seen anything? Anyway, he didn’t produce any actual evidence.

Is Elon losing it, a little bit. His grip, that is. Mr. Trump thinks so. He declared over the weekend that Elon has “gone off the rails” . . . has become “a train wreck.” Well, what you can see in this very public, very regrettable cage-match between two giant public personalities is that Elon has lost his cool and the president has not.

For one thing, Elon is apparently incensed over the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) just signed into law because it ends the electric vehicle mandate left over from the “Joe Biden” regime, as well as the whopping $7,500 federal tax credit for new electric cars — loss of which which is apt to break Tesla’s business model. The bill also calls for sunsetting subsidies for battery production by 2028, meaning Tesla’s Powerwall business is likewise affected. Mr. Trump took pains to explain that he’d informed Elon from the get-go (and repeatedly) that all those subsidies were done for when he got elected.

Elon was visibly perturbed over the process that produced the OBBB, the proverbial political sausage-making (i.e., a nasty business you’d be appalled to watch). It appeared, he said, to un-do all of his DOGE spending cuts so laboriously made. Mainly, Elon deplored the failure to address the $36-trillion-plus national debt, widely recognized as a time-bomb on a short fuse liable to sink the whole USS United States. I will tell you a harsh truth: nobody will do anything about the national debt. The sheer math of our annual debt service is simply impossible. Our country is heading into some sort of bankruptcy proceeding, some kind of ferocious “work out” — as they say in the banking board-rooms.

Mr. Trump is betting that re-industrialization of the USA will produce enough of the right sort of growth — that is, production of real things of real value, as opposed to mere financial shenanigans — that the debt reckoning can be overcome somehow. Or mitigated. It’s a bold risk, and many pieces of the scheme are indeed falling into place: tariffs, bigly investment capital from foreigners, a general realignment of trade relations, tax reform, downsizing of government.

But a virulent opposition, the mad-dog remnants of the Democratic Party, seeks to wreck Mr. Trump’s program (and perhaps the USA altogether), and it is a miracle that the president has gotten this far with his plan. Personally, I’m doubtful that the energy resources will be there to underwrite this reindustrialization, but that is a topic for another day.

And now Elon, peeved as he is, proposes to bring another big obstacle onto the scene, his proposed new “American Party.” Looks like he is making a tactical blunder, and his distraught emotional demeanor suggests poor decision-making. Frankly, I’ve been concerned about Elon’s soundness-of-mind since he came on-board Mr. Trump’s band-wagon last summer. There was something peculiar about his spastic rompings on stage, his jerky movements, his garbly speeches. You wonder if all the talk about his world-beating “genius” has messed with his mind.

Also, frankly, I’ve long thought that attempting to colonize Mars was absurd, or at least premature. Shouldn’t we rather make an effort to demonstrate that we can live on this planet successfully before we venture off to a new one? After all, this Earth is perfectly suited to our needs and Mars is absolutely not. I doubt that even the most extreme transhuman program would avail to implant us up there.

To cut to the chase: the grandiosity of Elon’s plans, and the oddness of his public performances, suggests to me that he has gone a bit crazy in the pure sense of the word.

This new party he proposes looks like a crazy play by a crazy person. He can throw zillions of dollars into it, and create a whole lot of political mischief, but what would that prove?

How would that make him any better than such obvious villains as George Soros and Bill Gates?

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

Democratic strategist and former Obama chief of staff Rahm Emanuel once stated that “You never want a serious crisis to go to waste.”

That philosophy seemed to be the playbook for the media and pundits immediately after the flood in Texas as many rushed to claim that it was caused by Trump budget cuts to the National Weather Service (NWS).

From George Stephanopoulos to Rosie O’Donnell, the hoax was spread that there was an understaffing at the NWS that may have caused these deaths.

It did not matter that it was an easy matter to confirm or that the underlying claims of understaffing the NWS team were false.

The weaponization of such tragedies has become commonplace in American politics.

Previously, Democrats like Senate Minority Leader Sen. Chuck Schumer bizarrely attempted to blame the crash of a Mexican ship in New York and air accidents around the world on Trump cuts.There are legitimate reasons to question whether cuts to agencies like the NWS might impact key programs, such as weather warning systems. There are also questions about whether long-standing forecast modeling failed to capture the severity of this particularly storm. However, basic honesty and decency would demand a modicum of inquiry before blaming the NWS for a failure that caused mass deaths, including a large number of children.

Indeed, the rush to claim that the tragedy was caused by understaffing can make it more difficult to find any real failures in the system. It is also possible that this was a convergence of weather systems that happened so fast (and late at night) that few citizens could take meaningful action. Some reports indicate that the river rose by 20 feet in only 45 minutes.Nevertheless, many rushed to take political advantage of the tragedy. Grant Stern, the executive editor of Occupy Democrats wrote on X “It only took 9 days for Trump’s cuts to the [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration] to kill dozens of children in Texas when Tropical Storm Barry landed this week.”

In reality, the NWS had extra personnel working the storm and issued the first warning 12 hours before the flood.

Moreover, even assuming that the cuts to the NWS might impact warning systems, they are not even scheduled to take effect until next year. While there were retirements and resignations early in the Trump Administration, there is no evidence that those departures are impacting weather warnings, let alone this emergency.

However, the media pounced as the death toll rose. Even after the Administration refuted the false claims, they were still being promulgated by the press. On ABC’s This Week George Stephanopoulos ominously declared “We’re also learning there were significant staffing shortfalls to the National Weather Services offices in the region.”

Whatever “shortfalls” are being reported “in the region”, they did not appear to impact the early warning given 12 hours earlier or the fact that there were extra, not fewer, staffers working the storm.

Again, none of this mattered. Politicians and pundits, such as Hakeem Jeffries and Adam Kinzinger, joined the chorus to suggest that cuts would make this a repeated failure.

Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-Texas) told CNN Sunday the NWS should be investigated. “I don’t think it’s helpful to have missing key personnel from the National Weather Service not in place to help prevent these tragedies.”

As parents mourned dead children, commentators rushed to lay the losses at the feet of the Administration. Ron Filipkowski, the editor-in-chief of MediasTouchNews, wrote “The people in Texas voted for government services controlled by Donald Trump and Greg Abbott. That is exactly what they (sic) getting.”

Rachel Bitecofer, assistant director at Christopher Newport University’s Wason Center for Public Policy declared “What has happened to the girls at Camp Mystic is EXACTLY what one of the country’s best meteorologists, John Morales, warned would happen. Trump’s cuts to the NOAA & NWS have critically impacted storm prediction nationwide.”

Rosie O’Donnell, who famously fled the United States for the safety of Ireland after the election, added to the false narrative:

“What a horror story in Texas. When the president guts all of the early warning systems and the weathering forecast abilities of the government, these are the results that we’re going to start to see on a daily basis.”

There are obvious familiar aspects to the news coverage.

It takes very little for the media to seed a false, viral story. It quickly enters the echo chamber and is repeated on countless social media sites.

When it is finally debunked, the media just shrugs and walks away.

Whether it was the false story about agents whipping migrants in Texas or the photo op claim in Lafayette Park, false stories were disproven only to have a collective shrug from those who spread them.

Heading into the presidential debate, the White House and the media attacked Fox News and other outlets for “cheap fake” videos designed to make the President look confused and feeble. For months, politicians and pundits insisted that Biden was sharp and commanding in conversations even after Special Counsel Robert Hur cited his decline as a reason for not charging him criminally.

On MSNBC, Joe Scarborough stated “start your tape right now because I’m about to tell you the truth. And F— you if you can’t handle the truth. This version of Biden intellectually, analytically, is the best Biden ever. Not a close second. And I have known him for years…If it weren’t the truth I wouldn’t say it.”

When the truth came out after the election loss, reporters ran around claiming that they were shocked by the fact that Biden was indeed mentally and physically diminished. By that point, it did not matter. Biden was out and the truth could be reported in a slew of belated books and articles.

Yet, some media outlets have refused to acknowledge false stories even after they were debunked. At the Washington Post, columnist Philip Bump previously had a meltdown in an interview when confronted about past false claims. After I wrote a column about the litany of such false claims, the Post surprised many of us by issuing a statement that it stood by all of Bump’s reporting, including false columns on the Lafayette Park protests, Hunter Biden’s laptop, and other stories. That was long after other media debunked the claims, but the Post stood by the false reporting.

Many media outlets pushed such stories because they knew that their readers want the claims to be true — and will not be outraged (or even convinced) when the stories are later debunked. Notably, when the New York Times recently ran a confirmed story that was negative for the Democratic mayoral nominee in New York, liberal readers and pundits were outraged.

Once again, we need to see what went wrong in Texas to try to avoid such tragedies in the future. However, the NWS appears to have done its job with adding extra staff and reportedly issuing the first warnings 12 hours in advance.  We need to look at precisely when those warnings were issued during the critical period and what information they conveyed. The hair-triggered response of the media to weaponize the tragedy should also be reviewed.

However, it is far more likely that there will be changes to emergency procedures than any serious change to journalistic practices.

The United States announced Monday that has formally revoked the foreign terrorist organization designation for Syria’s ruling Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group, ironically coming nearly two months after President Trump met with its leader, Syria’s self-declared interim president, Ahmad al-Sharaa (formerly Abu Mohammad al-Jolani).

It’s not just ironic, but scandalous, that Trump met with a US-designated terrorist during this Gulf tour while in Saudi Arabia. If any individual American citizen did the same, they would likely be investigated and prosecuted by the FBI. But Sharaa is the “former” al-Qaeda in Syria man who helped overthrow Bashar al-Assad, and that’s apparently all that Washington cares about.

The newly published State Department memo, signed by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, reads as follows: “In consultation with the Attorney General and the Secretary of the Treasury, I hereby revoke the designation of al-Nusra Front, also known as Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham.”

The memo is actually dated to June 23, but has gone into effect at the time of publication.

Recall that Trump had gone so far as to praise al-Sharaa as a “young, attractive guy” who has a “real shot at doing a good job”. There was no mention at the time of protecting some of the world’s most ancient churches and Syria’s sizeable Christian community.

The fruit of that ‘good job’ thus far has been a genocidal campaign launched against Alawites near Latakia, as well as attacks on churches, including last month’s suicide bombing of St. Elias Orthodox Church in Damascus, which left at least 25 people – including children – dead. A group affiliated with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham actually took responsibility. 

Why aren’t Christian leaders in the West more vocal about the plight of Syria’s blood-soaked churches?

“Shouldn’t American Christians care about Syrian Christians, about their brothers in Christ? …where are the Christians in this country when the IDF rolls into an all-Christian town in the West Bank?” — @TuckerCarlson with @scotthortonshow @BradRHoff pic.twitter.com/w6SpdZgLDC

— Christian Malazarte (@ChristianMalaza) July 4, 2025

Not only has Trump dropped sanctions on post-Assad Syria, but is even encouraging historic rapprochement and normalization with Israel:

Since assuming power, Sharaa has admitted that his government is holding “indirect talks” with Israel, and last week, Syrian authorities said they were willing to cooperate with Washington on reimplementing a 1974 disengagement agreement with Israel. 

Speaking earlier on Monday, the US special envoy to Syria and Lebanon, Tom Barrack, said “dialogue has started” between the two countries. 

Sharaa is likely to face opposition from his base and the broader Syrian population over a possible normalization deal, as Israel continues to wage war on hungry and besieged Palestinians in Gaza.

Sadly, the message from the White House seems to be that Syria should prioritize ending the long-running state of conflict with Israel, but there’s been barely a peep about the massacres being conducted against Syria’s ancient Christian, Alawite, and Druze populations.

While you’re busy chasing the Epstein client list, here’s what you missed:

The Trump administration revoked the Foreign Terrorist Organization designation from Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham—aka al-Nusra Front, aka Al-Qaeda’s branch in Syria. pic.twitter.com/x9HIAVyd1i

— Kevork Almassian (@KevorkAlmassian) July 7, 2025

But this was all about the US-Gulf-Israeli push for regime change, and Jolani is now their #1 terrorist ‘man in Damascus’. Assad and the Syrian Army ultimately lost the proxy war which was waged since 2011, with billions of dollars sunk into the effort from the Gulf and Western alliance.

Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,

The OPEC+ producers are expected in August to agree on another superhike in production for September that would complete the unwinding of the 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) output cuts, Goldman Sachs said after the alliance surprised the market with a larger-than-forecast boost for August.

The OPEC+ group is set to unwind the last 550,000 bpd of the 2.2-million-bpd cut in September, the investment bank said in a weekend note.

On Saturday, the eight OPEC+ producers withholding supply to the market decided to ramp up oil production more aggressively than anticipated in August.

At the virtual meeting Saturday, the eight core members led by Saudi Arabia agreed to add 548,000 bpd to global supply—exceeding earlier expectations of a 411,000 bpd hike. The move sets the bloc on track to fully unwind 2.2 million bpd of prior cuts nearly a year ahead of schedule.

“Saturday’s announcement to accelerate supply hikes increases our confidence that the shift, which we started flagging last summer, to a more long-run equilibrium focused on normalizing spare capacity and market share, supporting internal cohesion, and strategically disciplining US shale supply, is continuing,” Goldman Sachs analysts wrote in a note carried by Reuters.

Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman cited “current healthy oil market fundamentals and steady global economic outlook”, as well as “low oil inventories”, for their decision to boost August production by more than previously expected.

The decision reflects short-term bullish fundamentals for this summer.

The superhike also reaffirms OPEC’s major pivot from defending oil prices to boosting output and market share for producers such as Saudi Arabia that have stuck to their quotas, and punishing producers that have overproduced and now have to forego most of their share of the production hike.

Of these overproducers, Iraq and Russia appear to be trying to fall in line, but Kazakhstan continues to defy OPEC+ and pumps hundreds of thousands of barrels per day above its output ceiling, citing its inability to force foreign oil majors to cut production from new projects.

The actual production increase from OPEC+ will be lower than the headline figure suggests, due to compensations for previous overproduction.

Nevertheless, the superhike in August – and possibly in September – would accelerate the market glut after peak summer demand starts to wane in the autumn and winter, analysts say.

Update (1422ET): By late afternoon, the White House social media team had posted a total of seven trade warning letters, with the latest addressed to Malaysia, Kazakhstan, South Africa, Laos, Myanmar, and Tunisia. Earlier in the day, letters to Japan and South Korea were also made public on Truth Social.

Here are the trade warning letters per country:

• Malaysia

• Kazakhstan

• South Africa

• Laos

• Myanmar

• South Korea

• Japan

• Tunisia

The remaining letters, as noted by White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt earlier, will be released via Truth Social. 

*   *   *

Update (1345ET):

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt announced that, alongside Japan and South Korea, a dozen additional countries will soon receive similar trade warning letters, all of which will be publicly posted on President Trump’s Truth Social account.

Leavitt also stated that the tariff implementation deadline has been moved from July 9 to August 1, giving the countries that receive letters a clear ultimatum: negotiate now.

Latest headlines:

• LEAVITT: THERE WILL BE 12 OTHER COUNTRIES GETTING NOTIFICATION

• LEAVITT: TRUMP TO SIGN ACTION TODAY DELAYING TARIFFS

• LEAVITT: LETTERS WILL BE POSTED TO TRUTH SOCIAL

• LEAVITT: TRUMP ALSO SIGNING ORDER DELAYING TARIFFS TO AUG 1

*   *   * 

Update (1246ET):

U.S. main equity indexes, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, fell to session lows after the Trump administration released tariff letters to a handful of countries, citing “persistent trade imbalances” and the failure to reach trade deals before the July 9 deadline. The tariffs are expected to take effect on August 1.

The first two trade letters were sent to South Korea and Japan, imposing a 25% tariff on all goods, effective August 1. 

Here are the key points from the letter addressed to South Korea that was posted on President Trump’s Truth Social page:

• The U.S. views the trade relationship as unbalanced and non-reciprocal.

• The 25% tariff applies to all Korean goods, unless they are produced within the U.S.

• The tariff is separate from sectoral tariffs and will be increased if Korea retaliates with its own tariff hikes.

• The U.S. encourages Korea to open its markets and remove trade barriers—offering a possible tariff reduction if this happens.

• The trade deficit is framed as a national security threat. 

Full Letter US Sent South Korea

Here are the key points from the letter addressed to Japan that that was posted on Trump’s Truth Social page:

• A 25% tariff will be imposed on all Japanese products entering the U.S. starting August 1, 2025.

• This tariff applies separately from all existing sectoral tariffs.

• The U.S. cites Japan’s tariffs, non-tariff policies, and trade barriers as causes of a persistent and unsustainable trade deficit; The U.S. claims the relationship has been non-reciprocal for too long.

• No tariffs will apply if Japanese companies manufacture products within the U.S.

• If Japan raises its tariffs, the U.S. will add that amount to the existing 25% tariff.

• The U.S. expresses willingness to reconsider or adjust tariffs if Japan opens its markets and removes trade barriers.

Full Letter US Sent To Japan

The instant reaction in U.S. markets was traders hitting the ‘sell button,’ with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq sliding to session lows. 

Both yen and won tumbled on the news…

All in all, this is a trade ultimatum from the Trump administration to South Korea, Japan, and other countries, pressuring them to reduce trade barriers and tariffs and to reshore manufacturing in the U.S. The letter signals a broader ‘America First’ agenda and tariff diplomacy, aimed at reducing trade deficits by penalizing countries with perceived unfair trade practices. We suspect the other letters will be sent out shortly.

Related: 

• Tariff Time Again: Trump Sends Trade Letters Ahead Of Deadline, Threatens 10% Tariff On BRICS-Aligned Nations

• Japan Finally Admits Its Carmakers Have Been Paying All Trump Tariff Costs As Trade Talks Collapse

Vietnam has become the benchmark—both the ceiling for countries striking deals with the U.S. Trump is giving Japan and South Korea a final three-week deadline to reach a deal—failure to do so could mean severe consequences.

*   *   * 

Trade tensions are back in view as the 90-day deadline to reciprocal tariffs (which sparked a painful but extremely short market correction) approaches on July 9, with Trump pledging to start issuing unilateral rates to dozens of countries in the coming days. Stocks retreated at the start of a potentially volatile week as US trading partners rushed to finalize trade deals with the Trump administration ahead of the Wednesday deadline. However, one potential offset is that there are increasingly suggestions that August 1st might be the new July 9th (more below).

As a benchmark, DB’s economists believe the current effective tariff rate is around 15% (same as Morgan Stanley, see chart below), which is obviously a good deal below the implied rate from Liberation Day, but well above the low single figures before Trump returned to office. It is good news for markets that Section 899 (the revenge tax) has been consigned to the history books after not making it into the tax bill. It’s also good news that Bessent has recently sounded more positive on the direction of travel in recent talks. 

However, with financial conditions easy again and with the S&P 500 back at all-time highs, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Trump Administration take a tough stance with those who they don’t think negotiations are going in the right direction (this was discussed over the weekend in “The Risk For Stocks Is That The Administration Decides It Was Correct All Along On Tariffs“). 

President Trump said at the end of last week that by the July 9 deadline, tariffs would be “fully covered and they’ll range in value from maybe 60 or 70% tariffs to 10 and 20%.” Then over the weekend he said that he’d “signed some letters and they’ll go out on Monday – probably 12”. Overnight this was firmed up to noon Washington time today, so expect a flurry of headlines at noon!

On Thursday Trump mentioned that the letters could go out on the Friday holiday and apply from August 1st if no deal can be made. This gave some comfort that there could be yet another extension and time to do deals. Bessent has also reiterated over the weekend that some countries would be able to negotiate a three-week extension to August 1st. So maybe we’ll just be here again in three weeks when everyone is on the beach apart from the trade negotiators.

Bessent also said Trump will send letters to trading partners notifying them if no deal is reached, they will revert to April 2nd tariff levels while also adding that they are close to several deals and expect to see some big announcements in the next days. Furthermore, Bessent said 100 smaller countries will get set a tariff rate and many never even contacted the US.

For Europe, Bloomberg reported that the union is willing to accept a 10% universal tariff if exemptions for areas such as autos (25%) and steel and aluminum (50%) are provided. For Japan, the mood turned negative last week as President Trump said that they should “pay 30%, 35%, or whatever the number is that we determine, because we also have a very big trade deficit with Japan.” On the bright side, Treasury Secretary Bessent said they were “very close” to a deal with India, and on Thursday the US reached a trade deal with Vietnam. 

Then overnight Trump posted on social media that “Any Country aligning themselves with the Anti-American policies of BRICS, will be charged an ADDITIONAL 10% Tariff”

This follows a BRICs summit in Rio over the weekend where the group leaders, including China and India, condemned and called for a “just and lasting” resolution to conflicts across the Middle East.

Courtesy of Newsquawk, here is a summary of all the latest trade/tariff news from the weekend and this morning:

• Trump said trade letters are signed and are going out on Monday addressed to 12 countries but declined to say which countries or the different tariff levels involved. Trump later commented that they will have a deal or letter with most nations done by July 9th and could send out 12 or 15 letters on tariffs on Monday.
• Trump posted “I am pleased to announce that the UNITED STATES TARIFF Letters, and/or Deals, with various Countries from around the World, will be delivered starting 12:00 P.M. (Eastern), Monday, July 7th”
• Trump posted “Any Country aligning themselves with the Anti-American policies of BRICS, will be charged an ADDITIONAL 10% Tariff. There will be no exceptions to this policy.”
• Bessent said Trump will send letters to trading partners notifying them if no deal is reached, they will revert to April 2nd tariff levels with the tariffs to take effect on August 1st, while Bessent added that they are close to several deals and expect to see some big announcements in the next days. Furthermore, Bessent said 100 smaller countries will get set a tariff rate and many never even contacted the US.
• Russian President Putin told BRICS through a video link that it is important to enhance cooperation at BRICS and the usage of national currencies, while he commented that the liberal globalisation model is becoming obsolete.
• White House Economic Adviser Hassett said it is possible that some trade negotiations will push past the deadline, while he added that trade deals with the UK and Vietnam provide guidelines for additional agreements with other countries, according to a CBS interview.
• EU diplomats said on Friday that EU negotiators failed to achieve a breakthrough in US trade talks and negotiations to continue into the weekend, while EU negotiators were looking to secure a US tariff pause extension if no wider trade deal is agreed. It was also separately reported that the US threatened the EU with a 17% tariff on food exports, according to FT.
• Japan’s tariff negotiator Akazawa held in-depth phone talks with US Commerce Secretary Lutnick on Thursday and Saturday, according to Japan’s government.
• Japanese automakers are reportedly exploring all options to help reduce trade imbalances with the US, via Nikkei; one idea is Toyota Motor (7203 JT) importing cars made in the US back to Japan.
• China retaliated against the EU ban regarding public tenders for medical devices by imposing import restrictions on medical devices. China’s Finance Ministry said it is to exclude imports of medical devices exceeding CNY 45mln from the European Union from July 6th, while imports of medical devices from non-EU countries should not contain EU-made components worth more than 50% of the contract value.
• India and the US are likely to take the final decision on a mini trade deal in the next 24-48 hours (reported on Sunday), with an average tariff under the mini trade deal likely to be 10%, while talks have currently only been completed on a mini-trade deal and negotiations on a larger bilateral trade agreement will begin after July 9th, according to CNBC-TV18.
• Thailand is to offer the US more trade concessions to avert a 36% tariff with Thailand’s Finance Minister expected to submit the revised orders before July 9th with a proposal to boost bilateral trade volume and reduce Thailand’s USD 46bln trade surplus with the US by 70% within 5 years, according to Bloomberg.
• South African Trade Department spokesperson says it remains committed to a trade deal with the US; conversations are constructive and fruitful.
• US-Indonesia trade deal includes buying US soybean, corn and energy products, according to an official.
• German government spokesperson says time is money when it comes to tariff negotiations; adds, Chancellor Merz is coordinating with EU President von der Leyen, Italy PM Meloni, and French PM Macron on tariff talks.

Authored by Frank Shostak via Mises.org

Most economic commentators consider a decline in economic statistics, such as gross domestic product (GDP), as indicative of a decline in the health of the economy. According to most experts, this decline in the GDP—which is called a recession—as a rule, arises because of an overall decline in the aggregate demand for goods and services. This is seen predominantly as a decline in the private sector’s buying of goods and services.

Consequently, it is recommended that the central bank should step in and strengthen the private sector’s demand. This, it is held, will pull the economy out of the slump. The means recommended by experts are the lowering of interest rates by increasing the growth rate of money supply.

The problem—central to economics—is that goods are not readily available. These goods have to be produced by transforming various things in nature into goods, either capital goods (to make other goods) or consumer goods. The transformation of things undergoes various stages and takes time. In an economy, which operates in the framework of the division of labor, some individuals are employed in the extraction of various raw materials such as coal and iron. Some other individuals are employed in the conversion of raw materials into various tools and machinery. Still some other individuals are employed in the transformation—using tools and machinery—of various things into consumer goods.

In order to support this process of production through time, saving is required to sustain producers. Saving supports individuals in all the stages of production—from the producers of immediate consumer goods, to the producers of raw materials, and the producers of tools and machinery. This saving to support capital accumulation and growth has been called a “subsistence fund” because it sustains individuals in the various stages of the production structure.

Capital goods—like consumer goods—are also scarce. In order to make these goods, it is necessary to save and sacrifice. The goal is to create capital goods which will ultimately make production more productive and efficient—saving time, energy, and resources. As we can see, simply getting people to consume or spend more to increase aggregate demand, thus increasing the GDP metric, does not grow the economy. Production and saving must take place prior to consumption, in fact, that is what enables greater consumption.

What Is a Recession?

A recession is not really a weakening of GDP and various other economic indicators, but the liquidation of various non-productive activities that have emerged on the back of the loose monetary policies of the central bank. We label these activities bubbles. When the central bank loosens its monetary stance, this lays the foundation of exchanges of nothing for something, which amounts to a diversion of savings from wealth-generating activities to non-wealth-generating activities. This undermines the wealth generation process.

Once the central bank slows this process of monetary and credit expansion—which had built up a distorted structure of production—a recession reveals the malinvestments. Activities that sprang up on the back of the previous easy-money policies are now getting less support as a result of a tighter monetary stance. These activities fall into trouble—an economic bust, or a recession emerges. Regardless of how big and strong an economy appears, a tighter monetary stance will undermine bubble activities.

It follows, then, that recessions or economic busts are not about the strength of an economy as such. It is about the liquidation of activities that emerged because of the previous easy monetary policies of the central bank. The recessionary process is set in motion once the central bank reverses its easy-money stance. Ironically, recessions are good news for wealth-generators. A tighter monetary stance slows the diversion of savings from them towards bubble activities. This, in turn, strengthens the wealth-generation process.

According to most commentators, however, as long as consumer spending is increasing, there is no risk of a recession ahead. This means that as long as there is a growing demand by consumers, good times will follow. But demand cannot be independent, it is restricted by the previous production. The only way to raise the ability to consume more is to raise the ability to produce. On this James Mill held,

But if a nation’s power of purchasing is exactly measured by its annual produce, as it undoubtedly is; the more you increase the annual produce, the more by that very act you extend the national market, the power of purchasing and the actual purchases of the nation…. The demand of a nation is exactly its power of purchasing. But what is its power of purchasing? The extent undoubtedly of its annual produce.

Once more, what limits demand is the ability to produce. Greater production of consumer goods depends on production of capital goods. In order to produce more capital goods, saving is required. The answer is not more consumption and spending fueled by inflationary monetary policy.

GDP and the Money Supply

The key variable that most commentators pay attention to is the gross domestic product (GDP). Given that this indicator is based on monetary turnover, then obviously changes in the money supply are followed by changes in the GDP. Policies aimed at preventing the emergence of a recession make things much worse. These policies not only provide support to existing bubble activities but allow the emergence of new bubbles, worsening the situation.

As long as wealth producers can generate an adequate amount of savings to support productive and bubble activities, the inflationary policies of the central bank (which strengthens GDP) are regarded by most experts as a success. Once the ability of wealth-generators to support overall economic activity weakens, the economy is starting to slide into a recessionary hole. No central bank expansionary monetary policy can reverse this slide. On the contrary, it will deepen the economic slump.

Conclusion

A recession should not be defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, but as the liquidation of bubble activities that emerged on the back of the previous easy-money policies of the central bank. The recessionary process is set in motion once the central bank reverses its easy stance, however, this inflationary policy cannot be continued forever or it risks undermining the entire monetary economy. What matters for true economic strength is not strong economic data but freedom from the central bank and government policies that tamper with markets and money.

Trade tensions are back in view as the 90-day deadline to reciprocal tariffs (which sparked a painful but extremely short market correction) approaches on July 9, with Trump pledging to start issuing unilateral rates to dozens of countries in the coming days. Stocks retreated at the start of a potentially volatile week as US trading partners rushed to finalize trade deals with the Trump administration ahead of the Wednesday deadline. However, one potential offset is that there are increasingly suggestions that August 1st might be the new July 9th (more below).

As a benchmark, DB’s economists believe the current effective tariff rate is around 15% (same as Morgan Stanley, see chart below), which is obviously a good deal below the implied rate from Liberation Day, but well above the low single figures before Trump returned to office. It is good news for markets that Section 899 (the revenge tax) has been consigned to the history books after not making it into the tax bill. It’s also good news that Bessent has recently sounded more positive on the direction of travel in recent talks. 

However, with financial conditions easy again and with the S&P 500 back at all-time highs, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Trump Administration take a tough stance with those who they don’t think negotiations are going in the right direction (this was discussed over the weekend in “The Risk For Stocks Is That The Administration Decides It Was Correct All Along On Tariffs“). 

President Trump said at the end of last week that by the July 9 deadline, tariffs would be “fully covered and they’ll range in value from maybe 60 or 70% tariffs to 10 and 20%.” Then over the weekend he said that he’d “signed some letters and they’ll go out on Monday – probably 12”. Overnight this was firmed up to noon Washington time today, so expect a flurry of headlines at noon!

On Thursday Trump mentioned that the letters could go out on the Friday holiday and apply from August 1st if no deal can be made. This gave some comfort that there could be yet another extension and time to do deals. Bessent has also reiterated over the weekend that some countries would be able to negotiate a three-week extension to August 1st. So maybe we’ll just be here again in three weeks when everyone is on the beach apart from the trade negotiators.

Bessent also said Trump will send letters to trading partners notifying them if no deal is reached, they will revert to April 2nd tariff levels while also adding that they are close to several deals and expect to see some big announcements in the next days. Furthermore, Bessent said 100 smaller countries will get set a tariff rate and many never even contacted the US.

For Europe, Bloomberg reported that the union is willing to accept a 10% universal tariff if exemptions for areas such as autos (25%) and steel and aluminum (50%) are provided. For Japan, the mood turned negative last week as President Trump said that they should “pay 30%, 35%, or whatever the number is that we determine, because we also have a very big trade deficit with Japan.” On the bright side, Treasury Secretary Bessent said they were “very close” to a deal with India, and on Thursday the US reached a trade deal with Vietnam. 

Then overnight Trump posted on social media that “Any Country aligning themselves with the Anti-American policies of BRICS, will be charged an ADDITIONAL 10% Tariff”

This follows a BRICs summit in Rio over the weekend where the group leaders, including China and India, condemned and called for a “just and lasting” resolution to conflicts across the Middle East.

Courtesy of Newsquawk, here is a summary of all the latest trade/tariff news from the weekend and this morning:

• Trump said trade letters are signed and are going out on Monday addressed to 12 countries but declined to say which countries or the different tariff levels involved. Trump later commented that they will have a deal or letter with most nations done by July 9th and could send out 12 or 15 letters on tariffs on Monday.
• Trump posted “I am pleased to announce that the UNITED STATES TARIFF Letters, and/or Deals, with various Countries from around the World, will be delivered starting 12:00 P.M. (Eastern), Monday, July 7th”
• Trump posted “Any Country aligning themselves with the Anti-American policies of BRICS, will be charged an ADDITIONAL 10% Tariff. There will be no exceptions to this policy.”
• Bessent said Trump will send letters to trading partners notifying them if no deal is reached, they will revert to April 2nd tariff levels with the tariffs to take effect on August 1st, while Bessent added that they are close to several deals and expect to see some big announcements in the next days. Furthermore, Bessent said 100 smaller countries will get set a tariff rate and many never even contacted the US.
• Russian President Putin told BRICS through a video link that it is important to enhance cooperation at BRICS and the usage of national currencies, while he commented that the liberal globalisation model is becoming obsolete.
• White House Economic Adviser Hassett said it is possible that some trade negotiations will push past the deadline, while he added that trade deals with the UK and Vietnam provide guidelines for additional agreements with other countries, according to a CBS interview.
• EU diplomats said on Friday that EU negotiators failed to achieve a breakthrough in US trade talks and negotiations to continue into the weekend, while EU negotiators were looking to secure a US tariff pause extension if no wider trade deal is agreed. It was also separately reported that the US threatened the EU with a 17% tariff on food exports, according to FT.
• Japan’s tariff negotiator Akazawa held in-depth phone talks with US Commerce Secretary Lutnick on Thursday and Saturday, according to Japan’s government.
• Japanese automakers are reportedly exploring all options to help reduce trade imbalances with the US, via Nikkei; one idea is Toyota Motor (7203 JT) importing cars made in the US back to Japan.
• China retaliated against the EU ban regarding public tenders for medical devices by imposing import restrictions on medical devices. China’s Finance Ministry said it is to exclude imports of medical devices exceeding CNY 45mln from the European Union from July 6th, while imports of medical devices from non-EU countries should not contain EU-made components worth more than 50% of the contract value.
• India and the US are likely to take the final decision on a mini trade deal in the next 24-48 hours (reported on Sunday), with an average tariff under the mini trade deal likely to be 10%, while talks have currently only been completed on a mini-trade deal and negotiations on a larger bilateral trade agreement will begin after July 9th, according to CNBC-TV18.
• Thailand is to offer the US more trade concessions to avert a 36% tariff with Thailand’s Finance Minister expected to submit the revised orders before July 9th with a proposal to boost bilateral trade volume and reduce Thailand’s USD 46bln trade surplus with the US by 70% within 5 years, according to Bloomberg.
• South African Trade Department spokesperson says it remains committed to a trade deal with the US; conversations are constructive and fruitful.
• US-Indonesia trade deal includes buying US soybean, corn and energy products, according to an official.
• German government spokesperson says time is money when it comes to tariff negotiations; adds, Chancellor Merz is coordinating with EU President von der Leyen, Italy PM Meloni, and French PM Macron on tariff talks.

Via Beef News,

Walmart’s new case-ready beef facility in Olathe, Kansas isn’t just another fulfillment center—it’s a chess move.

A 300,000-square-foot plant. 600 new jobs. Cuts packed, labeled, and shipped straight to Walmart shelves. And all of it fed by one source: Sustainable Beef LLC, the North Platte processor Walmart bought into back in 2022.

What the press release calls “supply chain transparency” is really supply chain capture.

“We’re delivering more of what our customers want—affordable food and quality they can trust.”
— John Laney, EVP Food, Walmart U.S.

Trust, sure. Just don’t ask who sets the prices for the people raising the cattle.

One Chain. One Gatekeeper.

Walmart now owns a piece of the processor (Sustainable Beef), owns the packaging plant (Olathe), and controls the retail outlet (Walmart stores). That’s vertical integration—top to bottom.

Total investment? Nearly $700 million.

This isn’t a backup plan. It’s a power play.

• Walmart decides what cattle are worth
• Walmart decides how it’s cut and wrapped
• Walmart decides what consumers pay

The middle? Gone.

Small Processors Wiped Out

According to USDA’s Packers and Stockyards Report, the number of federally inspected beef slaughter plants declined from 297 in 2013 to 271 by 2022. And that’s just the headline.

Nationwide, over half of small and mid-sized beef processors (those handling 5–500 head per week) disappeared between 2000 and 2020, based on analysis from Rocky Mountain Farmers Union.

Then COVID hit. According to NIOSH and CDC data, more than 480 meat and poultry facilities across the country reported COVID outbreaks. Many of the small ones—already fragile—never reopened.

Nationwide, small and mid-sized beef processors have declined sharply over the past two decades, with many regions—including the High Plains—now facing limited slaughter access and months-long backlogs.

From Four to Five: The New Packing Order

The Big Four meatpackers—Tyson, JBS, Cargill, and National Beef—have dominated the industry for decades.

Now Walmart is quietly becoming the fifth.

• It owns the processor (Sustainable Beef)
• It controls the packaging (Olathe)
• It owns the shelf (Walmart stores)

And unlike the others, Walmart doesn’t have to make money on meat. It can sell beef at cost to move more detergent, diapers, and digital subscriptions.

If you’re a rancher? You’re not negotiating with a buyer—you’re entering a corporate conveyor belt.

“I’m of the belief that we could very much, easily resolve the differences and conflicts with the United States through dialogue and talks,” Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian told Tucker Carlson, based on the full interview (done remotely) released by the Tucker Carlson Network on Monday.

Of course, Tehran and Washington were engaged in what were supposed to be several rounds of good-faith talks at the very moment Israel began its surprise attack, utilizing dozens of warplanes, on June 13 – and which followed for nearly two weeks.

Pezeshkian described that Iran’s aim, prior to the June war starting, was to achieve “the framework or the basis for a deal in which the rights of all nations, the Iranian nation, would be respected.” Iran has consistently insisted that it be able to keep enrichment, as a matter of national sovereignty and for peace domestic energy purposes.

“We never wanted anything beyond the respect for our rights – rightful rights,” he told Carlson.

Carlson asked Pezeshkian if Iran will allow other countries to verify Iran’s enrichment activities. Pezeshkian says “we are ready to hold talks” over monitoring and that “we stand ready” to accept it. However, the fact that Israel and the US just bombed the Islamic Republic has introduced major complications – not the least of which was Iran just days ago booting UN inspectors from the IAEA out of the country.

For this reason President Pezeshkian stressed that monitoring must await Iranian authorities allowing access to nuclear facilities. At least three – Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan – have likely suffered significant damage following the Trump-ordered B-2 raids using large bunker busting ordinance.

Sleeper cells in US cities? “This is what Israel is trying to put into your minds,” the Iranian leader said.

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 IRAN’S PRESIDENT TO TUCKER: NO SUCH THING AS IRANIAN SLEEPER CELLS IN THE U.S.

Pezeshkian:

“This is what Israel is trying to put into your minds.

You’re propagating that Iranians might be capable of doing such things, but this is totally untrue, because by nature,… https://t.co/RfbFYTBOdV pic.twitter.com/UJ5p0WstBH

— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) July 7, 2025

Debate and speculation has been raging ever since over the degree to which the country’s core nuclear capabilities have actually been set back.

On the question of future diplomacy, Pezeshkian said “I believe that the United States President can very well guide the region and the world to peace & tranquility. Or on the other hand to lead it to forever wars.” He also said that the Islamic Republic is not seeking nuclear weapons.

“We see no problem in re-entering the negotiations,” he continued, but then qualified:

“How are we going to trust the United States again. We re-enter the negotiations then how can we know for sure that in the middle of the talks the Israeli regime will not be given the permission again to attack us.”

This appears to be precisely what happened in June. Axios and others also reported that the US had been secretly conspiring with the Israelis to greenlight the attack even as talks in Oman and Rome were happening. These reports present the nuclear dialogue as a ruse to lull the Iranians into thinking that all was okay, even up to the eve of the Israeli assault.

Did IAEA spy on Iran?

🚨🇮🇷 DID IAEA SPY ON IRAN?

“They had full access to supervise and monitor our nuclear facilities,” Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian tells Tucker Carlson in an explosive interview.

Watch 📹 pic.twitter.com/dgGvahE4B4

— Sputnik (@SputnikInt) July 7, 2025

“My proposal is that the US administration should refrain from getting involved in a war that is not its war. It is not America’s war,” the Iranian leader said. “It is Netanyahu’s war that is having its devilish machinations for the whole region.” Carlson did not particularly challenge these assertions, also given in other recent episodes and interviews he himself has made the same point – that Washington should resist being dragged into Israel’s foreign wars and entanglements.

At one point in the interview Pezeshkian was asked directly by Carlson whether Israel had attempted to kill him, to which the Iranian leader confirmed it, and added, “I’m not afraid to sacrifice my life for my country, for my country’s freedom. But will it bring security and peace to the region? It will only bring more bloodshed.” He said this was an Israeli operation aimed at regime change:

“It was not the United States that was behind the attempt on my life. It was Israel. I was at a meeting, we were discussing how to move forward, and thanks to the intelligence and spies they had, they tried to bomb the area where the gathering was held. God decides who lives and who dies. We are not afraid to become martyrs.”

Watch: attempted assassination of a sitting president…

🚨Iranian President confirms Israel tried to ASSASSINATE him

“They did try, yes. But they failed,” Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian tells Tucker Carlson in a bombshell interview.

Watch 📹 https://t.co/dLdLyMSQ1P pic.twitter.com/eaus52mfJU

— Sputnik (@SputnikInt) July 7, 2025

At same time he sought to stress that Iran has never sought to assassinate President Trump, despite American media reports and the claims of some of the US administration’s own officials.

“I would like to tell you and remind you that this is not Death to the American people or to the officials. Death to crimes and atrocities. To bullying. To the use of force,” Pezeshkian said when pressed about why Iranians commonly chant this in the streets.

He also said that Iran hasn’t invaded another country in 200 years. However, Iran in just the last could decades has seen the country to its immediate west (Iraq) and the country to its east (Afghanistan), suffer regime change and lengthy occupation by American-led forces.

On the question of sensational US headlines of Iranian terror sleeper cells in the United States,  Pezeshkian responded that this “the first time I am hearing” of this concept. “This is totally untrue because Iranians are pro peace and tranquility.” Historically at least, suicide bombing as a method of terror is more of a reality coming from Sunni radicalism, and not Shi’ism.

Watch the full interview:

Masoud Pezeshkian, president of Iran.

(0:00) How Would Iranian President Pezeshkian Like to See This Conflict End?
(0:44) Is Iran Willing to Give Up Their Nuclear Program in Exchange for Peace?
(5:19) Was the International Atomic Energy Agency Spying on Iran and Giving… pic.twitter.com/lMPoFa5ChX

— Tucker Carlson (@TuckerCarlson) July 7, 2025

The week after payrolls is usually quiet for data (key US event on the calendar is the FOMC minutes on Wednesday) so all eyes will focus on Wednesday’s 90-day extension to the reciprocal tariffs announced on Liberation Day back on April 2nd. However, there are increasingly suggestions that August 1st might be the new July 9th (see below). 

As a benchmark, DB’s economists believe the current effective rate is around 15% (same as Morgan Stanley, see chart below), which is obviously a good deal below the implied rate from Liberation Day, but well above the low single figures before Trump returned to office. It is good news for markets that Section 899 (the revenge tax) has been consigned to the history books after not making it into the tax bill. It’s also good news that Bessent has recently sounded more positive on the direction of travel in recent talks. 

However, with financial conditions easy again and with the S&P 500 back at all-time highs, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Trump Administration take a tough stance with those who they don’t think negotiations are going in the right direction. 

President Trump said at the end of last week that by the July 9 deadline, tariffs would be “fully covered and they’ll range in value from maybe 60 or 70% tariffs to 10 and 20%.” Then over the weekend he said that he’d “signed some letters and they’ll go out on Monday – probably 12”. Overnight this was firmed up to noon Washington time today. 

On Thursday he’d mentioned that the letters could go out on the Friday holiday and apply from August 1st if no deal can be made. This gave some comfort that there could be yet another extension and time to do deals. Bessent has also reiterated over the weekend that some countries would be able to negotiate a three-week extension to August 1st. So maybe we’ll just be here again in three weeks when everyone is on the beach apart from the trade negotiators.

For Europe, Bloomberg reported that the union is willing to accept a 10% universal tariff if exemptions for areas such as autos (25%) and steel and aluminum (50%) are provided. For Japan, the mood turned negative last week as President Trump said that they should “pay 30%, 35%, or whatever the number is that we determine, because we also have a very big trade deficit with Japan.” On the bright side, Treasury Secretary Bessent said they were “very close” to a deal with India, and on Thursday the US reached a trade deal with Vietnam. 

Then overnight Trump posted on social media that “Any Country aligning themselves with the Anti-American policies of BRICS, will be charged an ADDITIONAL 10% Tariff,” This follows a BRICs summit in Rio over the weekend where the group condemned US and Israeli strikes on Iran. 

In terms of key events this week, a highlight will be June’s FOMC meeting minutes released on Wednesday. Economists expect more details to emerge around the extent of divisions among Committee members. Staying with monetary policy, central bank decisions are due in Australia tomorrow and New Zealand on Wednesday. DB’s economists forecast 25bps cuts for both.

So lots of headlines in recent days, stand by for lots more over the next two days, and then likely beyond. 

Courtesy of DB, here is a Day-by-day calendar of events

Monday July 7

• Data: China June foreign reserves, Japan May labor cash earnings, leading and coincident index, Germany May industrial production, Eurozone May retail sales, Sweden June CPI
• Central banks: ECB’s Nagel and Holzmann speak

Tuesday July 8

• Data: US June NFIB small business optimism, NY Fed 1-yr inflation expectations, May consumer credit, Japan June Economy Watchers survey, bank lending, May BoP current account balance, BoP trade balance, Germany May trade balance, France May trade balance, current account balance
• Central banks: RBA decision, ECB’s Nagel speaks

Wednesday July 9

• Data: US May wholesale trade sales, China June CPI, PPI, Japan June M2, M3, machine tool orders
• Central banks: FOMC minutes, RBNZ decision, ECB’s Nagel and Guindos speak

Thursday July 10

• Data: US initial jobless claims, UK June RICS house price balance, Japan June PPI, Italy May industrial production, Denmark and Norway June CPI, Sweden May GDP indicator
• Central banks: Fed’s Musalem and Daly speak, ECB’s Cipollone and Villeroy speak

Friday July 11

• Data: US June federal budget balance, UK May monthly GDP, Germany June wholesale price index, May current account balance, Canada June jobs report, May building permits

* * * 

Turning to just the US, the minutes of the June FOMC meeting will be released on Wednesday. St. Louis Fed President Musalem and San Francisco Fed President Daly will take part in public speaking engagements on Thursday.

Monday, July 7

• There are no major economic data releases scheduled.

Tuesday, July 8

• 06:00 AM NFIB small business optimism, June (consensus 98.6, last 98.8)
• 11:00 AM New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations, June (last 3.2%)

Wednesday, July 9

• 10:00 AM Wholesale inventories, May final (consensus -0.3%, last -0.3%)
   
• 02:00 PM FOMC meeting minutes, June 17-18:At its June meeting, the FOMC left the funds rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.5%. In the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), FOMC participants raised their inflation forecasts and lowered their GDP growth forecasts to reflect larger tariff increases than they had previously assumed, but they made only moderate changes and were likely cautious in their tariff assumptions. The median 2025 dot—the key market focus at the June meeting—was unchanged by a narrow 10-9 majority at two cuts to 3.875%, while the median 2026 and 2027 dots both increased by 25bp. In the press conference Chair Powell reiterated that the FOMC was well positioned to respond to future developments and noted that he still expected to see meaningful tariff effects on consumer prices over the summer. 
  In the June minutes, we will also look for further clues on how FOMC participants are thinking about the Fed’s upcoming monetary policy framework review. We expect the FOMC’s “Statement of Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy” to return to saying that the FOMC will respond to “deviations” in both directions from maximum employment in normal times or at least water down the shortfalls language, under which the FOMC had previously committed to responding only to shortfalls from maximum employment. The Committee will also likely return to flexible inflation targeting (rather than flexible average inflation targeting) as its main strategy, though it is likely to retain the option to use a make-up strategy in some cases when the economy is at the zero lower bound (ZLB). As part of its review of communication strategies, the FOMC could introduce alternative economic scenarios to highlight risks and could also show corresponding monetary policy paths to explain how it might act under different circumstances.

Thursday, July 10

• 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended July 5 (GS 235k, last 233k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended June 28 (last 1,964k)
• 09:00 AM St. Louis Fed President Musalem (FOMC voter) speaks: St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem will speak at an event hosted by the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum. Moderated and audience Q&A is expected. On June 6th, Musalem noted that while tariffs could have only a temporary effect on inflation lasting “a quarter or two,” their impact on inflation could also “last longer,” and noted there was a “50-50” chance that either scenario takes place. Musalem stressed that “if market-implied and/or survey measures of medium- to long-term inflation expectations begin to rise, at that point it becomes very important to prioritise price stability.”
• 02:30 PM San Francisco Fed President Daly (FOMC non-voter) speaks: San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly will deliver a speech on the economic outlook at an event hosted by MNI. On June 26th, Daly said that her “modal outlook has been for some time that we would begin to be able to adjust the rates in the fall, and I haven’t really changed that view.” Daly also said she “saw three scenarios [on how tariffs affect inflation]: one scenario … is that it’s just delayed … the second is that it’s just delayed but it will be a one-off … and then the third, which … is not my modal but is increasingly possible, is that this just doesn’t amount to what the models in history would tell us because businesses find ways to absorb the cost, and they split it down the production chain, and ultimately consumers pay less of that.”

Friday, July 11

• There are no major economic data releases scheduled.

Source: DB, Goldman, Barclays