The Kremlin has sent the American government and people July 4th well wishes, which comes as somewhat of a surprise. But Moscow and Washington have been working on trying to improve bilateral relations under the Trump administration, while also seeking to forge an opening for permanent truce in Ukraine.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on Friday issued a formal Independence Day message to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and the American people on the occasion of the American nation’s founding.

The message released by the Russian Foreign Ministry expressed hope for improved ties, stability, and a unified vision between the two nuclear armed powers and longtime rivals.

“I expect that together we can put the relations between our nations on a creative vector, make them stable and predictable based on mutual respect for national interests determined by history, geography, and ‘realities on the ground,’” he said.

Russian President Vladimir Putin extended his best wishes to President Trump in a phone call the day prior; however, Trump the next day expressed disappointment, as a note from Newsquawk describes:

President Trump said he had a long call with Russian President Putin in which they talked about Iran and the war in Ukraine but added that there was no progress with Putin. Trump later commented that he will be speaking to Ukrainian President Zelensky on Friday and is disappointed with the conversation with Russian President Putin, while he doesn’t think Putin is looking to stop.

They spoke for nearly an hour. According to more:

Putin told Trump that Russia will not step back from its goals in Ukraine, while they had a detailed discussion on Iran and the Middle East. Furthermore, Putin emphasized the importance of settling the Iran issue exclusively by diplomatic means and Trump again raised the issue of bringing the Ukraine conflict to a swift halt

And Putin showed that he’s not stepping back, given the massive and apparently record-setting overnight drone attack on Ukraine – said to be among the largest since the war began.

On X, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Andrii Sybiha said, “Hundreds of Russian drones and ballistic missiles rained down on the Ukrainian capital.” He described the attack as “one of the worst so far.” 

This is why Trump promptly told reporters on Thursday just before boarding Air Force One on his way to Iowa that he was “not happy” with the conflict raging on, adding, “I didn’t make any progress with him at all.”

Via Open the Books,

If it wasn’t clear that the city and county of Los Angeles are in dire need of spending resets, taxpayers can look no further than the county lifeguards paid to watch over its pools, lakes and ocean.

OpenTheBooks.com reported on outrageous overtime spending on the LA police, fire and particularly overpaid employees in the city’s Department Water & Power amid out-of-control wildfires in January, and the anti-immigration riots in June.

Lifeguards, too, enjoy big overtime payouts and generous benefits. The top-paid lifeguard in LA county was compensated more than $500,000 in 2024; and over the past 5 years, a single lifeguard was able to pull down $702,000 – in overtime alone!

BY THE NUMBERS

We reported that in 2021, the top-paid lifeguards earned up to $510,283 — back then, we found 98 lifeguards earned at least $200,000 including benefits.

Now, out of over 1,500 lifeguards, 134 of them earned at least $200,000 including benefits. Thirty-four of them had $300,000 or more in their compensation package.

The highest paid in 2024 was lifeguard services chief Fernando Boiteux, who was given $523,351 in base pay, “other pay” and benefits.

Total compensation was $70.8 million for the 134 lifeguards last year, and includes the following: base pay, overtime pay, “other” pay, leave time payouts, health insurance payments, pension contributions, deferred contributions, long-term disability and life insurances, and “other” benefits.

Forty-five lifeguards collected between $50,000 and $171,000 in overtime alone.

In fact, the highest paid overtime earner at $171,000 was lifeguard services captain Remy Smith, who also received $109,999 worth of benefits, for a total compensation package of $468,556, the second highest compensation package behind Boiteux.

Boiteux didn’t collect overtime, but his generous pay package was top heavy with benefits — $192,000, including $100,000 in pension contributions, which is $25,000 more than anyone else.

Following Smith, the next highest overtime earners are ocean lifeguard Hayk Avagyan ($147,872), lifeguard services captain Colby Trivette ($137,139), lifeguard services captain Julio Rodriguez ($132,490) and ocean lifeguard Scott Deboer ($128,873).

The tidal wave of overtime in 2024 isn’t an aberration.

The 10 lifeguards with the most overtime pay took home between $345,000 and $702,000 each over the course of five years. All told, taxpayers have paid out $4,782,570 to those 10 lifeguards since 2020.

When we combine overtime with base pay and other compensation, the highest paid lifeguards in the last five years each took home between $1.4 million and $2.4 million in total compensation:

Top lifeguard officials and ocean lifeguards are employed by the fire department and make up about half of all lifeguards. After 30 years of service, these lifeguards can retire on between 70% and 81% of their pay, depending on which tier of the pension plan they belong to.

Lake and pool lifeguards make up the other half, and are employed by the Parks and Recreation Department, whose pension benefits vary.

Pay for beach lifeguards dwarfs that of their colleagues at the pools and lakes.

The highest paid pool lifeguard was given $65,000 compensation — $53,000 in total pay, and $13,000 in benefits, which is about 12% that of the highest paid ocean lifeguard.

The high pay, overtime and benefits are in contrast with the City of Los Angeles, which only employs its pool lifeguards and open water lifeguards on a part-time basis. The highest paid among the 487 “active” lifeguards made $35,000 in 2024, with just over $1,000 in benefits paid.

That’s not to say these public servants are phoning it in — they’re hard-working men and women, fighting ocean waves to save people from drowning.

DANGEROUS WORK

Ocean lifeguards Max Malamed and Ryan Aronson were given the 2024 Medal of Valor for “performing a difficult and dangerous pier jump into large surf to rescue a distressed patient experiencing a psychiatric crisis,” the LA County Fire Department said.

Paramedic Rescue Boat Captain Brian Kari, Paramedic Ocean Lifeguard Specialist Sean Kennedy, and members of the Avalon City Fire Department were given the Distinguished Service Award for helping a young mother who faced life-threatening complications while giving birth on Catalina Island. They stabilized mother and child, who were then airlifted to the Neonatal Intensive Care Unit on the mainland.

There’s no shortage of heroic stories about lifeguards springing into action, with or without an award.

Last July, firefighters and lifeguards helped rescue five people from a sinking boat that caught fire off the coast.

In March, lifeguards rescued a distressed dolphin that beached itself, and transported it to a marine mammal rescue center.

But heroic actions don’t always translate to higher pay. Aronson took home a modest $54,000 in pay, with $11,000 in benefits, for $65,000 in total compensation.

Malamed earned $165,000 in cash, plus $66,000 in benefits, for a total pay package of $231,000, while Kennedy was the highest paid among the three heroic lifeguards, collecting $232,000 in pay, plus $96,000 in benefits for total pay packages of $328,000.

CONCLUSION

Reasonable people can differ on some of these eye-popping numbers. After all, unlike most bureaucrats, lifeguards put themselves in harm’s way for their pay. But as Open the Books has chronicled, resources are finite and friendly dealmaking with public employee unions can send costs out of control.

County lifeguards like Boiteux can retire relatively early at 50, with plenty of time to pursue other professional projects, while collecting defined pension benefits for years to come. The generous plan allows the employee to choose which 12-month period they’d like to use to calculate their “Final Average Salary,” allowing them to choose the window with their highest average monthly pay. Using the conservative end of the scale, at 70% of base pay, a lifeguard with Boiteux’s base pay alone could continue collecting $191,849 for years to come, plus cost of living adjustments, making them potential multimillionaires when all is said and done.

As new bargains get made, taxpayers deserve to understand the scale of these lifetime payouts as public officials decide how they allocate resources.

The United States and Iran are poised to resume negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program in Oslo next week, Axios has reported, citing “sources familiar with the discussions.” It would be the first face-to-face meeting after last month’s Israeli-US war on Iran — which was launched as nuclear discussions were still very much underway. Talking to reporters on Thursday, President Trump acknowledged the mutual desire to resume talks, and Trump said he’d be willing to personally participate “if necessary.” 

While the date has not been finalized, and neither country has yet to confirm the news, the sources say US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff will meet with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. At the heart of the impasse is America’s insistence that Iran must stop enriching uranium, an undertaking that Iran insists is its right as a sovereign country and signatory (unlike Israel) to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. In a Tuesday call with French President Emmanuel Macron, Russian President Vladimir Putin endorsed Iran’s “legitimate right to develop peaceful nuclear technology” under supervision of the International Atomic Energy Association (IAEA). 

In another important development, Araghchi decried as “fake news” reports that Iran was suspending its cooperation with the IAEA. (Note that the key originator of those reports was seemingly Iran’s own state television.) Via a post on X, the foreign minister clarified that a new Iranian law “sparked by the unlawful attacks against our nuclear facilities” requires that coordination with the IAEA must “be channeled through Iran’s Supreme National Security Council for obvious safety and security reasons.”  

The Israel-initiated war on Iran culminated in the United States launching an attack on three Iranian nuclear sites, with B-2 bombers dropping 14 20,000-pound bombs on the Fordow Uranium Enrichment Plant situated under a mountain. Trump proclaimed the attacks had “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear program; in the latest claim, the administration says the timetable by which Iran could assemble a nuclear weapon (if it decided to) was set back by close to two years.    

🇺🇸💥🇮🇷 Iran has been busy at the Fordow nuclear facility. Recent satellite BEFORE AND AFTER images captured by Maxar show a buildup of construction equipment near the underground sites nuclear targeted by U.S. strikes in June.
The full extent of the damage done to Iran’s nuclear… pic.twitter.com/ql46Dkq7Uh

— Defense Intelligence (@DI313_) July 2, 2025

As Trump prepared to board Air Force One en route to a rally in Iowa on Thursday, he told reporters he was willing to engage in diplomacy himself if that’s what it takes to move on: 

“Iran does want to speak and I think they’d like to speak to me, and it’s time that they do. We’re not looking to hurt them, we’re looking to let them be a country again. They got beat up — [Iran and Israel] were both exhausted, frankly — but Iran really got beat up….They want to meet, and if it’s necessary, I’ll do it, but Steve (Witkoff) is very much involved and he’s done a fantastic job.” 

Questions remain about the status of Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium. Before the attack on Fordow, satellites captured images of a line of cargo trucks outside the facility, and an Iranian official has claimed that the US bombing “didn’t [deliver] a major blow because the materials had already been taken out.” However, US and Israeli officials claim the uranium, by having been bombed, is now “sealed off from the outside world.” Even if that’s true, that state of affairs would seem to be highly fleeting, given Iran’s ability to simply dig it back up. 

Iran really got beat up, though both countries were exhausted frankly — Trump

‘Iran wants to speak to me’ and ‘it’s time they do’

Adds ‘Iran wants to be a country again’ https://t.co/HTLry3gWsd pic.twitter.com/1aWcflE5qf

— RT (@RT_com) July 3, 2025

The seeds of today’s impasse were sown in May 2018, when Trump withdrew the United States from the nuclear deal that had been negotiated between Iran and various Western governments and signed in 2015. Under that deal, Iran agreed to a wide array of safeguards. They included eliminating its medium-enriched uranium, reducing its low-enriched uranium inventory by 98%, capping future enrichment at 3.67%, slashing its number of centrifuges, submitting to enhanced external monitoring and rendering its heavy-water reactor unusable by pouring concrete in it. At the time of Trump’s withdrawal, Iran was in full compliance, according to the IAEA. In response to the re-imposition of US sanctions, Iran began straying from the deal’s terms — most significantly, by enriching some uranium to 60% — seemingly pushing the only lever it had to bring the deal back and get out from under sanctions that have sapped Iran’s economy and inflicted a harsh toll on innocent Iranian citizens. 

Notably, Israel launched its June 13 surprise bombing-and-assassination attack just two days before American and Iranian diplomats were scheduled to hold a sixth round of discussions in Oman, and President Trump claimed he knew the date of Israel’s attack in advance. “How can we trust the Americans?” Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Majid Takht Ravanchi asked NBC. “We want them to explain as to why they misled us, why they took such an egregious action against our people…We are for diplomacy,” but the Trump administration must “convince us that they are not going to use military force while we are negotiating.”

Via The Epoch Times,

Consumer fireworks imports surged 68.5 percent during the pandemic, reaching a peak of 427.8 million pounds in 2022. After returning to pre-pandemic levels in 2023, fireworks imports increased by 22.6 percent in 2024. Meanwhile, display fireworks imports declined to an all-time low in 2021, a 62 percent decrease from 2019, but rebounded to more than 20 million pounds in 2022.

U.S. fireworks companies rely almost entirely on China, which produces 99 percent of consumer fireworks and 90 percent of professional display fireworks, according to the American Pyrotechnics Association. In 2024, China accounted for 98 percent of total fireworks imports to the United States.

In February, consumer fireworks imports increased by 83 percent, compared to the average for that month in previous years. The spike occurred after President Donald Trump imposed an additional 10 percent tariff on imports from China on Feb. 1.

Fireworks imports typically have a seasonal peak in May or June, with the highest monthly imports recorded in June 2022. The 2022 rebound resulted primarily from the post-pandemic recovery.

COVID-19 put a damper on traditional Fourth of July celebrations, with the most parades and gatherings canceled for July 4, 2020. In March 2021, a year after the COVID-19 shutdown began, President Joe Biden predicted that Americans could return to small group gatherings by that year’s Fourth of July. By June 2022, 38 states had ended their COVID-19 emergency declarations and the country experienced record levels of imported fireworks.

Fewer Americans are tuning in to the Macy’s Fourth of July Fireworks Special on NBC, compared to a decade ago. Broadcast viewership dropped 20 percent annually between 2018 and 2020, but has stabilized at an average of 4.4 million viewers over the past four years. Meanwhile, ratings among adults aged 18-49 have declined, from 1.5 percent a decade ago, to 0.6 percent in 2024.

In 2021, Joey Chestnut set a new record eating 76 hot dogs and buns in 10 minutes in the Nathan’s Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest held on Coney Island, New York, every July 4. After his record-setting performance, men’s totals slightly declined in subsequent years. The women’s record of 51 hot dogs was set by Miki Sudo in 2024, and marked her 10th title.

Over the past three years, New Yorkers have taken fewer subway rides during the week of the Fourth of July holiday, with an average decline of 15 percent compared to June totals. July ridership rebounded after the holiday week, at an average increase of 11.8 percent. During Thanksgiving week, subway ridership also decreased, falling by 21 percent compared to typical weeks in November.

Vehicle travel in the United States fluctuates seasonally, typically peaking in July due to warmer weather and holidays, and dipping in February. In July 2021, Americans drove 296.5 billion miles, enough to circle the Earth nearly 12 million times.

An average of 86 percent of Americans planned to celebrate the Fourth of July over the past decade. The only dip in overall celebrations occurred in 2020, when engagement decreased by 10 percent. That year, an average of 62 percent opted for cookouts, barbecues, or picnics, activities that were minimally affected by the pandemic shutdown.

Attendance at fireworks shows declined to 24 percent in 2020, but gradually recovered to more than 40 percent in 2023, returning to pre-pandemic levels.

President Donald Trump announced Friday that it would likely become clear within 24 hours whether Hamas would accept what he described as a “final proposal” for a ceasefire with Israel in Gaza.

He also mentioned in the fresh statement that he had discussions with Saudi Arabia about broadening the Abraham Accords, in reference to the normalization agreements between Israel and certain Gulf nations established during his first term in office.

On Tuesday Trump said that Israel had agreed to the terms required for a 60-day ceasefire with Hamas, during which both sides would aim to work toward ending the lengthy war which has been raging in the wake of the Oct.7, 2023 terror attacks.

A Hamas official on Thursday told the BBC that the Palestinian militant group is now “ready and serious” to reach a deal if it ended the war.

That was in reaction to President Trump having said that Israel has agreed to the “necessary conditions” to finalize the proposed 60-day ceasefire in Gaza.

Trump said the US would “work with all parties to end the War” – in a post on Truth Social. However, no details have been given on this particular ceasefire plan. Israel has not confirmed it agreed to any specific conditions as of yet.

“I hope… that Hamas takes this Deal, because it will not get better – IT WILL ONLY GET WORSE,” Trump wrote. But what will the consequences be if Hamas refuses – more bombing of the Gaza Strip?

Some details revealed in Israeli media have been presented as follows:

According to an unsourced Channel 12 report Thursday, Trump has offered a direct guarantee to Hamas that if it agrees to the so-called Witkoff framework — which includes the release of 10 living hostages in two phases and 18 bodies in three phases over the course of a 60-day ceasefire — the US will ensure efforts continue to reach a lasting end to the conflict.

Israel is also believed to be under heavy US pressure to clinch a ceasefire deal ahead of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s trip to Washington for talks with Trump next week. The prime minister is set to visit the White House on Monday.

Trump also said Friday that Gazans have “been through hell” and that “I want the people of Gaza to be safe.” But he didn’t directly answer when a reporter asked if the US is still considering taking any security responsibility over the Gaza Strip as part of the proposed truce plan.

Trump, in response to a question about whether he intends to control the Gaza Strip: I want the people of Gaza to be safe; that’s more important than anything else. They’ve been through hell pic.twitter.com/pcXiPpwDBz

— mahmoud khalil (@zorba222) July 3, 2025

The plan that the Trump administration floated in February included the permanent relocation of Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, and turning the land into a Mediterranean resort destination.

No Arab or neighboring nation has stepped forward to say they would accept more Palestinian refugees. Almost all regional states have historically absorbed at least tens or hundreds of thousands. American security contractors are currently present in the Gaza Strip, controversially as part of a US and Israeli-backed humanitarian aid distribution program.

Authored by Philip Wegmann via RealClearPolitics,

The war over what America First means will soon move to a new theater: a battle over the fate of the Office of Director of National Intelligence.

Overseeing all 18 of the U.S. intelligence agencies, the office was created in the wake of 9/11 to serve as a sort of orchestra conductor for the intelligence community, integrating operations and mediating feuds between shadowy three-letter agencies. Intended to be a small coordinating office, the ODNI has become sprawling and bureaucratic in the decades since. Republicans now broadly agree that it must be reformed.

At issue though is how the agency will change, and perhaps more importantly, who will accrue more power as a result. It is a fraught question for a GOP already suspicious of “weaponized” intel agencies.

Two MAGA heavyweights will shape the outcome.

Tulsi Gabbard, a skeptic of foreign intervention and President Trump’s current director of national intelligence, has already cut the ODNI workforce by 25% and finalized plans for additional reforms. Sources familiar with that effort tell RealClearPolitics that Gabbard is moving quickly but methodically not only to change the agency but to “set the example for all IC elements to emulate.”

Arkansas Sen. Tom Cotton, the hawkish chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, introduced legislation last week to shrink the size of the agency. The ODNI workforce would be capped at just 650 employees. Certain responsibilities would also be transferred, in coordination with the director, to other intel agencies. Notably this includes the ODNI center focused on counterproliferation and biosecurity, which would be subsumed by the CIA. The end goal: “A lean organization,” Cotton said in a statement announcing the bill, “not the overstaffed and bureaucratic behemoth that it is today, where coordinators coordinate with other coordinators.”

And so, the latest MAGA turf war – this one over the size and scope of the intelligence agencies – begins.

“They don’t want to reform the ODNI the way that Tulsi Gabbard and President Trump want to reform it,” said one senior intelligence official who complained that the Cotton bill would “just give the CIA more power.”

“This long predates Tulsi Gabbard being DNI. [Cotton] has been on the committee for 10 years now. It is a long time coming,” countered a Senate aide. The timing of the legislation has nothing to do with current leadership, the aide told RealClearPolitics. Cotton is preparing for the coming debate over the Intelligence Authorization Act, the aide added, and preparing to keep a public pledge.

During Gabbard’s confirmation hearing, Cotton noted in committee that the ODNI is now larger than many of the agencies it was established to manage and has staff in the thousands. Said the chairman, “I promise that is going to change.” For her part, the director vowed in that same hearing to cut out “redundancies and bloating.”

Asked where the president stands on the question, a White House official told RCP that Trump’s relationship with both Gabbard and the intelligence community “remains strong” before adding that “there are no plans to merge ODNI with CIA or have CIA take over ODNI.”

The official said that the president continues to meet regularly with his national security team, “which includes the ODNI,” adding also that “reports that seem to suggest there is a rift between ODNI and POTUS have no basis to it and are just turning things into something it is not.”

All of it is the latest in an ongoing experiment. The agency is comparatively new. It was established in 2004 after a sprawling intelligence community failed to prevent the September 11, 2001, terror attacks. Petty rivalries between three letter agencies, particularly between the CIA and FBI, had hampered intelligence sharing.

“There was some resentment throughout the intelligence community but more broadly, throughout Washington, DC, that the CIA had blown it on WMDs in Iraq and had blown it on 9/11 to a large degree, and therefore, didn’t warrant being the great leader of the intelligence community,” said Loch Johnson, professor at the University of Georgia whom the New York Times once dubbed “the dean of American Intelligence Scholars.”

A director was needed to oversee and integrate all the intelligence agencies, Johnson said, recalling the debate at that time. “And that made some sense,” he told RCP, “except for one problem: The office was never given the tools that it needed to get the integration job done.” Without the authority to hire and fire or oversee budgets, he concluded, the agency often struggles to wrangle a vast intelligence apparatus.

“Prior DNIs were the head of the IC only on paper and were routinely accustomed to yielding IC actions and decisions to the preferences of the CIA and other agencies,” John Ratcliffe said of the office he led during Trump’s first term, during an interview for the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025.

The responsibility of reforming the ODNI now falls to Gabbard. When Elon Musk was marching through the administration in search of waste, fraud, and abuse, she was cutting staff and eliminating entire departments at the ODNI, such as the Intelligence Community Human Capital office which she dismissed as a “slush fund” for diversity, equity, and inclusion. “Find another agency who has reduced 25% of their workforce in less than 5 months,” the intel official bristled.

Gabbard will soon release her plan to overhaul the office further. The topline of that reorganization, RealClearPolitics is first to report, includes manpower, money, process, and structure.

The revamp comes amidst a quiet debate on the right. Some have advocated elevating the ODNI as a counterweight to the CIA, which conservatives complain has become too political. Others insist that both are bloated and ripe for reductions. For his part, Ratcliffe concluded that during his tenure, he was only able to “begin reversing that capitulation” of the office “because President Trump made it repeatedly clear to the entire national security apparatus that he expected all intelligence matters to go through the DNI.”

Ratcliffe now serves as CIA director. Gabbard, meanwhile, has appeared embattled and out of step with the president.

Trump seemed to disregard analysis from Gabbard last month: “I don’t care what she said,” he told reporters aboard Air Force One when asked about her March assessment that Iran had not restarted its nuclear program. (Less noticed in the press, however, was her testimony that Iranian “enriched uranium stockpile is at its highest levels and is unprecedented for a state without nuclear weapons.”)

This rebuke came after the president was reportedly left fuming at an unauthorized video she posted to social media when the White House was still considering whether to strike Iranian nuclear facilities; Gabbard warned in the three-minute video that nameless “warmongers are carelessly fomenting fear and tension between nuclear powers.”

Gabbard was not present during a huddle Trump held at Camp David with his national security team, a fact that led allies and critics alike to speculate that she had been sidelined because of her anti-interventionist views. A senior intel official later told RCP that she had not been snubbed; Gabbard, a lieutenant colonel in the U.S. Army Reserve, was instead away training in Oklahoma.

The administration has dismissed the idea that there are any rifts among the president’s national security team. Steven Cheung, White House communications director, told RCP last month that assertions otherwise were simply “efforts by the legacy media to sow internal division.”

And when the headlines implied that Gabbard seemed like she was in the barrel, Vice President JD Vance told RCP, unprompted, that that the opposite was true. “She’s an essential member of our national security team,” Vance said of Gabbard, who shares his skepticism of foreign wars, “and we’re grateful for her tireless work to keep America safe from foreign threats.”

Gabbard, a former Democrat who represented Hawaii in Congress for four terms, would normally have been an unorthodox pick to be the top intelligence official in a Republican administration. But she shares Trump’s rejection of “forever wars” and skepticism of intel agencies. Those characteristics seemed to make her straight out of central casting for a non-interventionist president eager to realign the right on foreign policy. They have also invited controversy.

Citing “the sheer volume of unrelenting attacks against her,” a senior administration official told RCP that “You can tell Tulsi touched the third rail.” This was not unexpected, they said, adding, “Of course, the deep state was going to fight back against being reduced and their power being decentralized.”

US equity futures slumped on Friday after the latest threat on tariffs from the Trump administration sparked selling across global markets on a day the US cash market is closed for the July 4th holiday. S&P 500 futures fell 0.6% after the index melted up all week, and closed at a fresh all-time high, with payrolls data affirming the economy’s resilience. Trump dialed up trade tensions after Thursday’s close, warning partners he may start setting levies of as much as 70% unilaterally as soon as today ahead of a July 9 deadline for negotiations.

Trump told reporters that about “10 or 12” letters would go out Friday, with additional letters coming “over the next few days.”

“We’re probably going to be sending some letters out, starting probably tomorrow, maybe 10 a day to various countries saying what they’re going to pay to do business with the US,” Trump told reporters on Thursday as he left Washington for an event in Iowa.

“By the ninth they’ll be fully covered,” Trump added, referring to a July 9 deadline he initially set for countries to reach deals with the US to avoid higher import duties he has threatened. “They’ll range in value from maybe 60 or 70% tariffs to 10 and 20% tariffs,” he added.

While global markets have staged a furious rebound since April’s tariff-related volatility, some investors remain cautious as uncertainties surrounding the trade war and its potential impact on the US economy and corporate earnings persist.

“There’s a little bit of doubt of creeping in, especially after the bump up this week,” said Neil Wilson, investor strategist at Saxo UK. “Today’s a good day to take a little bit of risk off. But I don’t think there’s a fundamental shift, it’s all on the margins at the moment.”

In signs of diplomatic and trade tensions escalating between China and the European Union, Beijing said it intends to cancel part of a two-day summit with EU leaders planned for later this month. China also imposed anti-dumping duties on European brandy for five years, while exempting major cognac makers that meet a price commitment. Remy Cointreau SA briefly slipped before trading higher. Pernod Ricard SA pared losses.

The S&P 500’s surge has put it on the verge of triggering a sell signal, according to BofA’s Michael Hartnett. The CIO advised that investors consider trimming their holdings once the index climbs beyond 6,300, a level just 0.3% above where it closed on Thursday. He also reiterated that bubble risks are mounting into the summer, especially following the House’s approval of a $3.4 trillion fiscal package featuring tax cuts.

“Overbought markets can stay overbought as greed is harder to conquer than fear,” Hartnett wrote in a note.

Europe’s Stoxx 600 dropped 0.7%, wiping out a small weekly gain. Mining and consumer products shares led declines, while telecommunications and food and beverages equities are the biggest outperformers. Here are the biggest movers Friday:

• Norwegian Air Shuttle gains as much as 3.4%, climbing to the highest in 13 months, after the airline releases its traffic statistics for June
• Loomis falls as much as 6.6%, the most since May, after DNB Carnegie cut its recommendation on the Swedish cash-handling firm to hold from buy ahead of its second-quarter results
• Aker BP falls as much as 2.8%, the most since June 25, after the Norwegian oil firm reported its latest production figures, which showed a quarter-on-quarter drop as the company entered the maintenance-heavy summer months
• Remy Cointreau and Pernod Ricard shares slide after China’s Ministry of Commerce announced it will impose as much as 34.9% anti-dumping duties on EU brandy after concluding a probe
• Ashtead shares fall as much as 2.3% on Friday as UBS lowers its price target and estimates on the equipment rental specialist, saying there is no sign of a near-term reacceleration of growth
• Moonpig shares drop as much as 6.6% after Deutsche Bank cut the British online gifting platform to hold from buy, citing disappointing H2 results
• Ence Energia y Celulosa drops as much as 4.8% in Madrid as Jefferies downgrades to hold on weaker pulp pricing
• MJ Gleeson shares drop as much as 6.7%, slumping to their lowest level since September 2023, after stating annual profit before tax and exceptional items will be at the lower-end of market expectations in FY26

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks also fell after US jobs growth data erased bets for an interest-rate cut in July and trade tensions resurfaced as President Donald Trump’s tariff deadline nears. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined as much as 0.4%, dragged by AIA Group and TSMC. South Korea’s Kospi slid 2%, leading losses in the region. Benchmarks in Hong Kong, Taiwan and Thailand also drop. Investors are cautious as the July 9 deadline for trade negotiations approaches. Trump said his administration will begin sending out letters setting unilateral tariff rates to trading partners on Friday. The duties will “range in value from maybe 60 or 70% tariffs to 10 and 20% tariffs,” he said. 

The US Treasury cash market is closed for the July 4 holiday and while European bond markets firmed on Friday, UK gilts made little headway after a selloff on Wednesday that was driven by fiscal concerns.  The yield on 10-year UK government debt was little changed at 4.53%, compared with 4.45% at the close on Tuesday.

In commodities, oil dropped in the lead-up to an OPEC+ meeting that’s set to deliver another oversized production hike, threatening to swell a glut forecast for later this year. Gold rose 0.3% as investors sought havens.

Top Headlines

• US House voted 218-214 to pass President Trump’s sweeping tax cut and spending bill, sending it to President Trump to sign into law, while the White House said Trump will sign the bill on Friday at 17:00EDT/20:00BST.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said there could be an increase in US financing needs based on yields and it is likely that they will use bills to refill the Treasury General Account, while he added that they will see US banks take up more of the debt issuance and debt-to-GDP is to be well into the 90% range by the end of President Trump’s term.
• US House Speaker Johnson said they will have a second reconciliation package in the fall, according to a Fox News interview.
• Fed’s Bostic (2027 voter) noted significant risk that upward pressure on prices will be around for some time, while he also stated that US government debt at some point will have implications in the marketplace and crowd out other investments. Bostic added it will have implications for the efficacy of monetary policy and making interest rates more independent of the central bank.

Corporate highlights

• Air France-KLM will initiate the process of raising its minority stake in Scandinavian airline SAS AB to 60.5%, as it looks to extend consolidation in European aviation.
• India’s regulator has temporarily barred Jane Street Group LLC from accessing the local securities market, dealing a severe hit to the US firm that allegedly made $4.3 billion in trading gains in the South Asian nation in less than two years.
• French train maker Alstom SA has won a €2 billion ($2.4 billion) order from New York’s Metropolitan Transportation Authority, which is in the process of modernizing its fleet.
• Frasers Group Plc warned Hugo Boss AG it will vote against any dividends, as the British retailer owned by billionaire Mike Ashley exerts its influence after years of building a stake in the German fashion house.
• A European insurance group backed by Apollo Global Management Inc. offered to acquire a specialist UK insurer that’s partly owned by a company controlled by South African billionaire Johann Rupert for about £5.7 billion ($7.8 billion).
• Airlines across Europe have canceled hundreds of flights on the second day of an air traffic controllers’ strike in France that’s causing chaos just as the busiest travel season of the year gets underway.
• Banco Sabadell SA has called two shareholders meetings as it seeks to approve an extraordinary dividend after agreeing to sell it’s UK unit — part of its broader attempt to block a takeover by larger rival BBVA SA.
• Country Garden Holdings Co.’s sales slid again in June, with the developer faring worse than peers, as a lack of policy support dampened demand.

More details from Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mixed with gains limited despite the better-than-expected jobs data stateside which unwound some Fed rate cut bets, while the House also passed President Trump’s sweeping tax cut and spending bill. Nonetheless, trade uncertainty lingered ahead of the July 9th tariff deadline and with President Trump noting that they will begin sending out letters today, although Treasury Secretary Bessent said to expect a flurry of trade deals ahead of the deadline. ASX 200 was rangebound as strength in tech and consumer discretionary was offset by losses across the commodity and resources sectors. Nikkei 225 traded indecisively amid recent currency moves and as strong Household Spending data supported the case for the BoJ to resume normalisation. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed with the Hong Kong benchmark pressured, while the mainland is resilient as China plans subsidies for young children to boost the national birthrate, while the US lifted the license suspension for GE Aerospace on sales of jet engines to China’s COMAC.

Top Asian News

• China is planning subsidies for young children to boost the national birth rate.
• Japanese government official said regarding household spending that the May Y/Y spending rose at the fastest pace since August 2022 and M/M spending rose by the most since March 2021.

Europe’s Stoxx 600 dropped 0.7%, wiping out a small weekly gain. Mining and consumer products shares led declines, while telecommunications and food and beverages equities are the biggest outperformers

Top European News

• UK Chancellor Reeves is to announce a review of workplace pension contributions, according to the FT.
• ECB’s Nagel said no reason to rush on next rate cuts and the ECB must not get anxious if prices temporarily fall below 2%.
• ECB’s Elderson said the link between heat and key economic indicators such as inflation and gross domestic product is too important to ignore, according to Bloomberg.
• ECB’s Lagarde said they will do whatever must be done to reach the inflation target. Have price stability. The economic system needs to be more efficient and integrated before the EUR can increase its role as a global currency. Need to further cut trade barriers in Europe and simplify regulation, according to Reuters.

FX

• DXY took a breather and held on to most its recent spoils after gaining on the back of the stronger-than-expected US jobs data which resulted in an unwinding of Fed rate cut bets, while there was also a breakthrough in Congress where the House voted to pass President Trump’s sweeping tax cut and spending bill ahead of the Independence Day holiday with President Trump set to sign the bill into law on Friday.
• EUR/USD attempted to nurse some of the prior day’s losses after giving way to the dollar strength although the rebound was limited with the single currency not helped by mixed Services PMI data from the bloc and after the ECB Minutes noted that keeping interest rates at their current levels could increase the risk of undershooting the inflation target in 2026 and 2027.
• GBP/USD traded steadily and ultimately held its ground after UK PM Starmer’s recent attempts to instil confidence in Chancellor Reeves
• USD/JPY gradually pulled back from post-NFP highs after failing to sustain a brief return above the 145.00 level, with mild headwinds seen amid the flimsy risk appetite in Japan and after stronger-than-expected Japanese Household Spending data.
• Antipodeans were contained within tight parameters amid the somewhat indecisive risk tone and lack of pertinent tier-1 data.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1535 vs exp. 7.1688 (Prev. 7.1523)

Fixed Income

• 10yr UST futures traded sideways after slumping yesterday in reaction to the strong US jobs data which spurred some unwinding of Fed rate cut bets, while demand is also constrained by the closure of US cash markets for Independence Day.
• Bund futures struggled for direction following recent whipsawing and as German Industrial Orders loom.
• 10yr JGB futures were subdued after recent pressure from the strong US jobs report and after Japanese Household Spending accelerated at the fastest pace since at least 2022.

Commodities

• Crude futures traded uneventfully after the prior day’s lacklustre performance as demand was constrained ahead of the OPEC+ meeting with delegates said to discuss a 411k BPD output hike for August, while the US and Iran are also to resume nuclear talks in Oslo next week.
• OPEC+ delegates are discussing a 411k BPD output hike for August, according to Bloomberg.
• Spot gold gradually edged higher and clawed back some of the losses triggered by strong US jobs data.
• Copper futures were pressured amid the flimsy overnight risk sentiment and with US participants away for Independence Day.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• Mediators have moved closer to securing an Israel-Hamas ceasefire in Gaza, according to the FT. It was also reported that Hamas said it is discussing a ceasefire proposal with other Palestinian groups and will hand over its response once it concludes these talks, while US President Trump later commented we are going to know over the next 24 hours, when asked if Hamas agreed to the ceasefire deal.
• US Secretary of State Rubio spoke with Syria’s Foreign Minister and affirmed he would consider further steps reviewing domestic and UN terrorist designations related to Syria, according to the State Department.
• Saudi Arabia’s Defence Minister met with US President Trump and other officials at the White House to discuss de-escalation efforts with Iran, according to Fox News. It was separately reported that Saudi Arabia’s Defence Minister spoke with Iran’s chief of staff in a call following the meeting with US President Trump, according to an Axios reporter.
• An explosive drone was intercepted near Erbil airport in northern Iraq, according to a Kurdistan security service statement.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• US President Trump said he had a long call with Russian President Putin in which they talked about Iran and the war in Ukraine but added that there was no progress with Putin. Trump later commented that he will be speaking to Ukrainian President Zelensky on Friday and is disappointed with the conversation with Russian President Putin, while he doesn’t think Putin is looking to stop.
• Kremin aide Ushakov said Russian President Putin and US President Trump spoke for nearly an hour and Putin told Trump that Russia will not step back from its goals in Ukraine, while they had a detailed discussion on Iran and the Middle East. Furthermore, Putin emphasised the importance of settling the Iran issue exclusively by diplomatic means and Trump again raised the issue of bringing the Ukraine conflict to a swift halt.
• Russian overnight drone attack on Kyiv damaged railways infrastructure in the city, while it was separately reported that Ukraine launched drones on Sergiyev Posad near Moscow with several explosions reported, according to TASS.

Geopolitics: Other

• North Korea said the US fabricated the ‘cyber threat’ from North Korea and the Quad should stop unilateral coercive acts to change North Korea’s position, according to KCNA.

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Happy Independence Day to all our US readers. I hope the last 249 years has all been worth it. It’s also a landmark day for other reasons, as my favourite band in my formative years today reform after 16 years. Oasis were the soundtrack to my coming of age at university and beyond. I’ve probably also annoyed thousands of people over the years strumming covers of their songs in small groups or on stage.

I’m yet to get tickets to any of their gigs but I’m always on the lookout. I’ve only seen them twice. Once in December 1993 at Warwick University student union before they’d released an album. And then at Knebworth three years later as part of the largest ever outdoor gig at the time in the UK. The sound quality was appalling. I was over halfway back, and the repeater speakers had a huge delay which clashed with the sound from the stage. Oh, and it took 4 hours to get on a train home, which was about the same length of time as the queue for the toilets. That may have put me off big gigs for life so if you have a box for any of their shows, I’ll be your man!

Markets closed for the holiday in a supersonic mood yesterday afternoon, as a decent US jobs report boosted investor optimism, pushing back against recent speculation of a slowing US economy. Then after the lunchtime US close, the $3.4tn net fiscal stimulus package passed the House. In the end the 218-214 vote was relatively comfortable considering all the tight votes in recent weeks. The bill will likely be signed by the President at 5pm today in Washington. Note that the $5tn debt ceiling increase included in the bill, probably takes that off the table for around 2.5 years given the current run rate of deficits. Without the increase we’d probably have run up against the existing debt ceiling around mid-August. So one less thing to worry about in the near term, even if the bigger picture on debt just got more worrying.

With the tax bill passed, attention is understandably turning to the next key date, which is the 90-day reciprocal tariff deadline on July 9. Overnight we’ve had some significant headlines on that, as Trump has said he’s going to start sending out letters to countries from today, telling them what rates they’re going to be. Moreover, he said that by the July 9 deadline, “they’ll be fully covered and they’ll range in value from maybe 60 or 70% tariffs to 10 and 20% tariffs”. He also said that they “will start to pay on August 1”. So definitely one to keep an eye on, as the difference in that range would have significant economic implications for the various countries. Trump also had a phone call with Putin yesterday, although he said he “did not make any progress with him at all”.

That backdrop has seen US equity futures lose ground this morning, with those on the S&P 500 falling -0.26%. However, that all comes after a notable rally in yesterday’s half-day of trading, with the S&P 500 (+0.83%) surging to a fresh record, whilst US HY credit spreads reached their tightest point since February as well, at 268bps. This strength was echoed globally, and European assets also rallied as fears eased about the UK’s fiscal situation, with gilts recovering a decent chunk of the previous day’s losses. So even with all the uncertainty about the reciprocal tariff deadline on July 9, the ongoing robustness in the hard data has seen markets power forward to new highs.

That jobs report was the main catalyst for yesterday’s moves, with nonfarm payrolls up by +147k in June (vs. +106k expected). In addition, there were modest upward revisions to the April and May prints, whilst the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.1% (vs. 4.3% expected). So collectively, that added to the sense that the labour market hadn’t seen an obvious deterioration after Liberation Day, and it pushed back against the negative ADP print on Wednesday, which raised speculation that the Fed might cut as soon as this month’s meeting.

Given the resilience in the jobs report, investors immediately dialled back their expectations for rate cuts anytime soon. In fact, right before the jobs report came out, futures were still pricing a 25% chance of a rate cut at this month’s meeting, but that then plummeted to just 5% by the close. Likewise for the rest of the year, the amount of rate cuts expected by the December meeting came down -13.6bps on the day to 51.3bps. So that led to a significant selloff for Treasuries, with the 2yr yield jumping +9.5bps on the day to 3.88%, whilst the 10yr yield rose +6.9bps to 4.35%.

That sentiment was backed up by other US data yesterday. For instance, the weekly initial jobless claims dipped back to 233k in the week ending June 28 (vs. 241k expected). So again, that countered a rise that we’d seen in recent weeks, pushing back against fears of a sharper deterioration. Likewise, the ISM services index moved back up to 50.8 (vs. 50.6 expected), with new orders also rebounding back into expansionary territory at 51.3. So the US data was pretty good across the board, and it wasn’t just the jobs report helping that narrative.

That backdrop meant equities put in a strong performance, with the S&P 500 up +0.83% before today’s Independence Day holiday. That was led by the more cyclical sectors, with tech stocks posting further gains that saw the Magnificent 7 up +0.91%. Indeed, the latest gain for the Mag 7 pushed it up to its highest close since January, and left it just -3.47% beneath its all-time high back in December. Small-cap stocks also put in a decent session, with the Russell 2000 (+1.02%) posting a 6th consecutive advance to close at its highest since February.

Over in Europe, the main focus had been on the UK at the open, given the market turbulence there the previous day. However, after Prime Minister Starmer publicly backed Chancellor Reeves, UK assets pared back some of their losses, because investors were reassured that the fiscal rules would remain in place. So yields on 10yr gilts came down -7.1bps, unwinding a good chunk of the +15.8bps move the previous day. Likewise, UK equities also put in a strong day, with the FTSE 100 up +0.55%, whilst the more domestically-focused FTSE 250 surged +1.17%. The pound sterling stabilised as well, strengthening +0.14% against the US Dollar.

That strength was echoed across the continent, and optimism was further boosted after the final services and composite PMIs came in stronger than the initial flash estimates. For instance, the final Euro Area composite PMI for June was at 50.6 (vs. flash 50.2), and the UK composite also came in at 52.0 (vs. flash 50.7). So that resilience helped to ease fears that the US tariffs were leading to a slowdown in Europe as well, and European equities advanced, with the STOXX 600 up +0.47%. Sovereign bond yields also rallied, with those on 10yr bunds (-4.3bps), OATs (-4.8bps) and BTPs (-6.5bps) all falling back.

Overnight in Asia, the major equity indices have struggled for momentum after the S&P 500’s record high yesterday. South Korea has seen the biggest losses, with the KOSPI down -1.52%, but Japan’s Nikkei is also down -0.11%, and the Hang Seng is down -0.62%. To be fair, there have been some gains, with the CSI 300 (+0.41%) and the Shanghai Comp (+0.41%) both advancing. We also had some data on household spending in Japan, which was up +4.7% year-on-year in May, the fastest growth since August 2022.

To the day ahead now, and US markets will be closed for the Independence Day holiday. Elsewhere, data releases include Euro Area PPI, German factory orders, French industrial production and Italian retail sales for May, as well as the June construction PMIs from Germany and the UK. Otherwise from central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Elderson and Villeroy, along with the BoE’s Taylor.

Russia launched one of the largest aerial assaults of the war on Ukraine overnight, unleashing more than 500 drones, with Kyiv as the primary target. The timing of the attack—just hours after a phone call between President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin—yielded no success toward ending the war in Eastern Europe. 

On X, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Andrii Sybiha said, “Hundreds of Russian drones and ballistic missiles rained down on the Ukrainian capital.” He described the attack as “one of the worst so far.” 

Here is Sybiha’s complete statement:

Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Andrii Sybiha: “Absolutely horrible and sleepless night in Kyiv. One of the worst so far. 

Hundreds of Russian drones and ballistic missiles rained down on the Ukrainian capital.  

Right after Putin spoke with President Trump. And he does it on purpose. 

Enough of waiting! Putin clearly shows his complete disregard for the United States and everyone who has called for an end to the war.  

Moscow must be slapped with the toughest sanctions without delay. Ukraine must be provided with all necessary means to defend itself. 

Wrong decisions can only encourage the aggressor to escalate terror. Every criminal regime in the world is now watching closely Putin’s actions and responses to them. If he gets away with all of this, everyone will get a very clear message. 

Stop waiting for peace. Act to achieve peace. Peace through strength.”

Absolutely horrible and sleepless night in Kyiv. One of the worst so far.

Hundreds of Russian drones and ballistic missiles rained down on the Ukrainian capital.

Right after Putin spoke with President Trump. And he does it on purpose.

Enough of waiting! Putin clearly shows… pic.twitter.com/R0mlfUgJRx

— Andrii Sybiha 🇺🇦 (@andrii_sybiha) July 4, 2025

This is Kyiv in the overnight hours…

Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital, tonight after Russia launched a massive drone and missile attack on the city.

Numerous sites across Kyiv were hit, including multiple civilian and residential buildings, just days after the U.S. froze shipments of air defense munitions. pic.twitter.com/aQg8XRKUZE

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) July 4, 2025

This war is literally squeezing the blood out of Ukraine. What a heavy, horrible night for the entire country, especially for Kyiv. It’s just a stunning coincidence how the residents of the capital are greeting this morning, right after yesterday’s conversation between Trump and… pic.twitter.com/hjHn685TOB

— Katerina Horbunova (@blue_eyedKeti) July 4, 2025

It’s morning in Kyiv now… pic.twitter.com/1i5kzsPW0Q

— Chief Rabbi Of Ukraine Moshe Azman (@RabbiUkraine) July 4, 2025

The Russian drone and missile attack comes just hours after President Trump and President Putin held a call that yielded little to no progress toward ending the years-long war.

Trump told reporters on Thursday before boarding Air Force One on his way to Iowa that he was “not happy” with the conflict raging on, adding, “I didn’t make any progress with him at all.”

Earlier in the week, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth ordered a pause in sending a shipment of missiles and ammunition to Ukraine over concerns about rapidly depleting U.S. stockpiles. 

Axios noted that President Volodymyr Zelensky is set to speak with Trump later today to discuss the pause of the weapons shipments. 

Ahead of the Fourth of July, new polling shows a sharp decline in U.S. national pride, driven mainly by crazed Democrats, some of whom have increasingly spewed anti-American rhetoric, with talking points that sound straight from adversarial regimes like the Communist Party of China.

Democrats are mostly in opposition to President Trump’s “Make America Great Again” agenda that calls for strong borders, boosting domestic manufacturing (look at this!), reclaiming critical supply chains for technologies that will control the 2030s, stripping fraud and waste from the federal government, and resolving national security threats on the Homeland through the deportation of criminal illegal aliens.

These news findings are from a June 2-19 Gallup poll that shows a record-low 58% of U.S. adults are “Extremely/Very proud”, 41% “Extremely proud,” and 17% “Very proud” to be an American. 

The drop in national pride has been led mainly by Democrats, with only 36% now saying they are extremely or very proud to be American, down from 62% a year ago. Pride among independents has also fallen to a new low of 53%, a seven-point decline from last year. In contrast, Republicans’ national pride has increased, with 92% expressing strong pride last month. 

The broader picture of the Democratic Party’s mindset can be summed up by leftist political commentator Elie Mystal, who openly despises America and, earlier this week, called for the international community to sanction the country. It’s worth noting that Mystal has deep connections to the Democratic Party’s NGO network… go figure.

Elie Mystal: “Our country is THE bad guy on the world stage. The world needs to stand against America. Sanction us.” pic.twitter.com/3OjPx52Ryn

— End Wokeness (@EndWokeness) July 2, 2025

While other Democrats are openly promoting communism, and this is an actual quote: “The end goal is seizing the means of production.” 

“The end goal is seizing the means of production”

Best of luck, NYC

pic.twitter.com/3IvNHG8n8j

— AG (@AGHamilton29) June 30, 2025

And yet, many of the Democrats who vocally denounce America have no intention of leaving. Why? Because their goal isn’t to leave—it’s to dismantle the capitalist system. They aim to collapse capitalism and replace it with a socialist reconstruction of the nation, consolidating control over land and power.

Leftist rioter burns American flag in LA.

“My Mexican flag. Green, white, and red! That’s my flag! Not this flag. Fúck this flag!
I pledge allegiance to Mexico. Nobody else. Not this country.” pic.twitter.com/jeDZHmb9JP

— Leftism (@LeftismForU) June 9, 2025

What should the punishment be for burning the American flag? pic.twitter.com/j45mtVEO06

— Clown World ™ 🤡 (@ClownWorld_) June 16, 2025

Seattle Wa…. They’re removing American flags from a federal building…

And then burning it

That’s not just bad juju…
Good luck you commie F*€ks

pic.twitter.com/AsJZnXRw9z

— 🪶Native Patriot 🇺🇸 (@LaNativePatriot) June 11, 2025

LA migrants are burning American flags pic.twitter.com/BljhfJfwWW

— End Wokeness (@EndWokeness) June 9, 2025

We are living in an information and cultural war—one between the ‘America First’ movement and a rising faction of Marxist-aligned Democrats. The Red Scare, it seems, may soon be making a comeback.

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

A prominent academic in London has warned that the UK government is actively preparing for the break out of a civil war, but is using the “logically absurd” cover of a Russian invasion to put contingencies in place.

Pointing to remarks made in the 2025 National Security Strategy paper last month, Professor David Betz of King’s College London has suggested that the British government is using the phantom threat of a foreign attack in order to harden critical national infrastructure against sabotage.

“For the first time in many years, we have to actively prepare for the possibility of the UK homeland coming under direct threat,” the Whitehall paper noted, adding that “critical national infrastructure – including undersea cables, energy pipelines, transportation and logistics hubs” are a major target.

During a discussion with Professor Lewis Halsey, Professor Betz, a modern war expert recently stated “there is growing apprehension about the security of Britain, the security of its infrastructure specifically, and about the potential for active conflict at home in a very direct manner, effecting people in a very direct manner.”

“But that’s not external in origin, that’s internal, and that has to do with the way our society is now configured, it is highly fractured,” Betz continued, adding “Low trust, highly fractured, and highly politically factionalised which is leading us increasingly inevitably into civil conflict.”

Betz further outlined how the Russian threat is being amplified as a cover story.

“The fact of the matter is there is a great distance between us and Russia… we are not militarily threatened in a direct way on the ground by any obvious external enemy, even Russia,” Betz outlined.

“Which isn’t to say there aren’t things which Russia could do to attack the UK should they wish to, but one of those is not occupying the village green with Russian soldiers, that simply, frankly, is a rather bizarre assertion,” he contended.

“What they’re concerned about is domestic conflict, and they perfectly understand this, but that’s completely politically toxic for them to say so publicly, hence the convenience of saying ‘we need to develop… a citizen’s militia for the protection of critical infrastructure’,” Betz further noted.

“To say that we’re doing this against the potential of Russian attack, which is frankly a logically absurd proposition, but it is convenient as a pretext,” he emphasised.

Betz also recently posited that many European countries are on the verge of civil war and may already be past the point of no return.

He says his research shows there is a statistically significant chance of a civil war breaking out within five years in a major European country, with a distinct possibility that the conflict could spill over to neighbouring Nations.

Professor Of War Warns Many European Countries Are In A ‘Pre CIVIL WAR’ State

Speaking to documentarian Andrew Gold, Betz further noted that it is likely too late to prevent things getting “very much worse” in Europe, and that governments may only be able to better prepare for the inevitable.

“I would probably avoid big cities. I would suggest you reduce your exposure to big cities if you are able,” Betz chillingly urged.

*  *  *

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.