Weaker than expected job gains combined with rising unemployment rates and massively negative revisions have sent rate-cut odds soaring with September now priced around 75%…

2025 cut expectations are now back above 50bps (and 2026 is fading modestly)…

This has helped smash Treasury yields lower with the short-end leading (down a stunning 18bps)…

And the dollar is puking…

Gold is mirroring the dollar weakness and soaring higher…

Stocks are lower post-payrolls but were notably weaker already on the heels of tariffs and AMZN disappointment…

So, circling back to the start, is this ‘bad news’ from the labor market, good news for Trump as it forces The Fed’s hand sooner rather than later?

Time for an emergency cut?

Heading into today’s jobs report, sentiment had seen a surprising boost in recent days, with the whisper number rising from just about 110K back to 125K, or where it started the month of July.

Well, the optimism proved to be very, very wrong, because moments ago the BLS reported job numbers that were very ugly with July printing just 73K, far below the 104K estimate.

But that’s not the real punchline: what is, is that Trump not only took a page out of the Biden playbook, but ripped pretty much all of it out with May and June revised massively lower, to wit:

• May was revised down by 125,000, from +144,000 to +19,000,
• June was revised  down by 133,000, from +147,000 to +14,000.

With these revisions, employment in May and June combined is 258,000 lower than previously reported, which puts to shame any/all of the far smaller revisions that defined much of the Biden regime. 

Blackrock PM Jeff Rosenberg told Bloomberg TV that the big news today is the revisions, and the main takeaway is that it raises the odds of a rate cut in September.

The number of jobs came in below the 80-100k breakeven level estimated by Fedʼs Barkin, suggesting Trump may have literally instructed the BLS to print a number that basically forces Powell’s hand to cut.

The number was even uglier in the Household survey, which showed a drop of 260K workers in July, the 3rd biggest monthly drop of 2025.

And with that the gaping disconnect between the two series is back with a vengeance.

Going down the report, the unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%, as expected, which may be the only silver lining in today’s report as the Fed is now more focused on the unemp rate (according to Powell) than the number of jobs actually added.

Of note here is that the unemployment rate for Black workers was highest since October 2021.

The labor force participation rate, at 62.2%, dropped slightly in July from 62.3%, and has declined by 0.5% point over the year. It was the lowest since November 2022. The employment-population ratio, at 59.6%, also changed little over the month but was down by 0.4% over the year.

Turning to wages, we find that hourly earnings actually rose from an upward revised 3.8% (was 3.7%) to 3.9%, above the 3.8% expected.

Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 12 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $36.44 in July. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have  increased by 3.9 percent. In July, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose by 8 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $31.34. 

The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged up by 0.1 hour to 34.3 hours in July. In manufacturing, the average workweek held at 40.1 hours, and overtime edged  down to 2.8 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged up by 0.1 hour to 33.7 hours in July. 

Some more details from the report:

• The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.7 million, changed little in July. These individuals would have preferred full-time employment but were working part time  because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs. 
• The number of people not in the labor force who currently want a job changed little in July at  6.2 million but was up by 568,000 over the year. These individuals were not counted as unemployed because they were not actively looking for work during the 4 weeks preceding the survey or were  unavailable to take a job. 
• Among those not in the labor force who wanted a job, the number of people marginally attached to the labor force changed little at 1.7 million in July. These individuals wanted and were available for work and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months but had not looked for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. The number of discouraged workers decreased by 212,000 in July to 425,000, largely offsetting an increase in the prior month. Discouraged workers are a subset of the marginally attached who believed that no jobs were available for them. 

Turning to the composition of the report, the BLS reports that employment continued to trend up in health care and in social assistance. Federal government continued to lose jobs. 

• In July, health care added 55,000 jobs, above the average monthly gain of 42,000 over the prior 12 months. Over the month, job gains occurred in ambulatory health care services (+34,000) and  hospitals (+16,000).
• Social assistance employment continued to trend up in July (+18,000), reflecting continued job growth in individual and family services (+21,000). 
• Federal government employment continued to decline in July (-12,000) and is down by 84,000 since reaching a peak in January. 
• Employment showed little change over the month in other major industries, including mining,  quarrying, and oil and gas extraction; construction; manufacturing; wholesale trade; retail  trade; transportation and warehousing; information; financial activities; professional and  business services; leisure and hospitality; and other services.

The numbers were so ugly, they effectively put a 25bps rate cut in Sept front and center… maybe even 50bps. Sure enough, bond yields from the two-year through seven-years are lower by at least 10 basis points as the market sniffs out a Fed being late to cut. 

“We would look for the Fed to begin lowering rates in September,” says Gregory Faranello, head of US rates trading and strategy for AmeriVet Securities.  “It’s somewhat amazing how you can have a sitting Fed Chair intimate the strength in labor one day and receive these numbers a few days later.”

Commenting on the numbers, Bloomberg’s chief Economist Anna Wong wrote:

“July’s nonfarm payrolls were surprisingly weak, but the biggest shock was the massive revision to past data, which reduced gains for the past two months from solid to nearly zero. Adjusted for potential overstatement from the BLS’ ‘birth-death’ model, underlying job gains in July were also about flat.

“The unemployment rate, which Fed Chair Powell said earlier this week is the ‘main number’ to watch, also edged up, even as the labor force shrank for a third straight month. The main takeaway from the jobs report is that labor demand appears to be falling faster than labor supply – the labor market is not ‘solid,’ as Powell characterized it earlier this year, and we expect him to revise his opinion accordingly. We see growing chances of an earlier rate cut than our December base case.”

And here is B. Riley Wealth chief market strategist, Art Hogan,  

“Today’s jobs report is unambiguously soft and a reflection of the trade and tariff impact on economic growth. Both the actual report and the big negative revisions are more evidence that the trade policy will slow growth. What we know about our workforce population growth is that we need to create between 100 and 150,000 jobs a month to keep the unemployment rate unchanged. That is down from a range of 150 to 200,000 last year due to less immigration. The three-month average coming to today’s report was 150,000. The new three-month average of job creation is now 80,000. Not great news.”

All good points, but what really happened is that Trump finally figured out what we said last December, namely that if he wants the Fed to cut quick, he needs a labor market emergency. 

Finally he figured it out https://t.co/soBNzoHDBX

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 1, 2025

Well, he finally got it. 

Global markets and US equity futures extended a selloff as Trump’s sweeping import tariffs sparked renewed fears about the outlook for economic growth amid traders. The MSCI All Country World Index fell for a sixth day, the longest streak since September 2023. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures on the S&P 500 retreated more than 1%, suggesting the index will extend a three-day run of declines. In premarket trading, Amazon.com slumped as much as 8%
and weighed on Big Tech after projecting weaker-than-expected operating income, prompting questions about its huge AI spending; Elsewhere AAPL (+1.7%) rallied on iPhone sales growth including while other Mag 7 names are mostly lower NVDA (-.25%), GOOG/L (-2.2%) and META (-1.3%) as Consumer Discretionary and Healthcare underperform. In rates, 30y TSYs added 3.2bps. Commodities are mixed, with precious metals higher and base metals lower. Today’s economic data slate includes July jobs report (8:30am), July final S&P Global US manufacturing PMI (9:45am), and July ISM manufacturing and July final University of Michigan sentiment (10am)

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly lower: Amazon.com slides 7% after projecting weaker-than-expected operating income and trailing the sales growth of its cloud rivals, leaving investors searching for signs that the company’s huge investments in artificial intelligence are paying off. Apple rises 1.8% after the company reported its fastest quarterly revenue growth in more than three years, easily topping Wall Street estimates, after demand picked up for the iPhone and products in China. Others are mostly in the red (Microsoft +0.5%, Meta -1%, Tesla -1.2%, Alphabet -1.8%, Nvidia -2%). 

• Avantor (AVTR) slumps 10% after the maker of laboratory supplies reported adjusted earnings per share for the second quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.
• CCC Intelligent Solutions (CCCS) climbs 15% after the software company reported revenue for the second quarter that exceeded the average analyst estimate.
• Coinbase (COIN) falls 11% after the largest US crypto exchange reported revenue for the second quarter that missed the average analyst estimate following a drop in digital-asset market volatility.
• Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY) ticks up as much as 2.5% after the Washington Post reported that the US government plans to experiment with covering weight-loss drugs for federal health programs.
• First Solar (FSLR) advances 2% after the renewable energy firm boosted its net sales forecast for the full year.
• Fluor (FLR) tumbles 17% after the engineering and contracting firm cut its adjusted earnings per share guidance for the full year.
• Kimberly-Clark Corp. (KMB) rises 3% after raising its full-year guidance after reporting the strongest volume growth in five years.
• Lumen Technologies (LUMN) falls 5% after the telecommunications firm posted 2Q revenue came in just shy of estimates.
• Moderna (MRNA) falls 5% after the struggling biotech company narrowed its revenue forecast for the full year.
• Reddit (RDDT) rises 16% after the social-networking company forecast revenue for the third quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.

Late on Thursday, Trump announced a slew of new levies, including a 10% global minimum and 15% or higher duties for countries with trade surpluses with America, as he forged ahead with his turbulent effort to reshape international commerce. Questions about the impact on growth and inflation are starting to overshadow the AI-driven optimism that has buoyed megacap technology stocks.

“Next week marks a significant turning point for global trade with the introduction of Trump’s tariffs, creating uncertainty about how these new and historical barriers will affect markets in practice,” said Kim Heuacker, an associate consultant at Camarco. “Current high valuations, particularly among US stocks, are becoming increasingly difficult to justify.”

Trump’s baseline rates for many trading partners remain unchanged at 10% from the duties he imposed in April, easing the worst fears of investors after the president had previously said they could double. Yet, his move to raise tariffs on some Canadian goods to 35% threatens to inject fresh tensions into an already strained relationship.

 Taken together, the average new tariff rate rises to 15.2% from 13.3% — up significantly from 2.3% in 2024, according to Bloomberg Economics. The biggest losers appear to be China and Switzerland, Bloomberg economist Maeva Cousin says.

Now that tariff news is in the bag, all eyes turn to today’s jobs report: the US economy is expected to have created 104,000 jobs in July, down from 147,000 a month earlier. The “whisper” is for 120,000. According to JPMorgan, either would be good enough to take the S&P 500 higher (see our full preview here). Today’s closely-watched jobs report may give fresh hope to doves looking to make the case for the Fed to cut interest rates. There are fewer company updates to distract from payrolls, but a slew of new tariffs is dampening the mood. 

“Given all the uncertainties, it makes a lot of sense for traders, for dealers to take some money off the table going into nonfarm payrolls today,” said Gareth Nicholson, CIO of Nomura International Wealth Management.

The Euro Stoxx 600 falls 1.2% to around a one-month low, tracking declines in Asia with pharmaceutical stocks including Novo Nordisk A/S, GSK Plc and AstraZeneca Plc leading declines after Trump demanded drug companies lower US prices. Travel, industrial and technology shares are also leading declines.  The tariffs are “really bad for Europe,” said Ludovic Subran, chief investment officer at Allianz SE. “The cost for companies will be huge, as the US is the biggest market by far.” These are the biggest movers Friday:

• Campari gains as much as 8.8%, the most since April, after the Italian spirits maker reported 1H results. Adjusted Ebitda and sales for the period beat consensus estimates and the company left its full-year guidance unchanged
• Melrose Industries gains as much as 7.9%, the most in almost four months, after the aerospace company reported earnings ahead of expectations in the first half, which analysts at RBC say helps de-risk its full-year guidance
• Erste shares rise as much as 3.1% to a fresh all-time high after the bank raised its forecast for return on tangible equity and net interest income. Analysts at Morgan Stanley note strong capital position
• UMG shares fall as much as 8.9% after the music label reported Ebitda margin that expanded more slowly than expected during 2Q, with its merchandising unit being hit by higher tariffs and freight costs
• European pharmaceutical stocks drop after US President Donald Trump demanded drug companies lower US prices, and Novo Nordisk loses its spot among Europe’s 10 most valuable companies after nearly a weeklong slump
• Daimler Truck falls as much as 5.5% in early trade after the truckmaker lowered its outlook, citing the impact on sales from ongoing tariffs in North America. Order weakness in North America stood out, Citi says
• Saint-Gobain shares fall as much as 5%, the most in almost four months, after results from the French construction materials producer showed a slowing volume trend into the second-quarter
• J. Martins falls as much as 4.6% in early trading as 2Q earnings beat driven by rebound of like-for-like sales in Poland and better cost control is clouded by erosion of Portuguese retailer’s gross margin
• Engie falls as much as 8.3%, before trimming losses, after the French energy group said most earnings metrics fell year on year, with Jefferies seeing a 24% miss on Ebit ex-nuclear. Shares are down 3.1% as of 10.29am in Paris
• Cancom shares drop as much as 21%, the most since 2008, after the IT services provider cut its outlook for the full year, citing challenges in its core German market
• Mutares shares fall as much as 22% after the German Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) says in statement that there are concrete indications the investment firm has violated accounting regulations

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks were set to record their biggest weekly decline since April as Washington’s tariffs damped the outlook for the export-dependent region. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 1% on Friday, with South Korean equities leading declines after authorities unveiled plans to raise taxes on corporations and investors. Tech shares weighed on the regional gauge as Tokyo Electron dropped the most in nearly a year following a move by the chip tool maker to lower its full-year earnings outlook. The retreat in the Asian index marks a reversal of the back-to-back weekly gains that helped propel it to the highest level since March 2021. Investors are watching the parameters and impact of trade deals, as well as factors such as central bank policy direction to plot their next move. 

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rises 0.2%, trading at the highest in two months after Trump fired his latest salvo at the Federal Reserve, saying in a social-media post the institution’s board should “assume control” if Chair Jerome Powell doesn’t lower interest rates. Traders are also bracing for key US jobs data later Friday. The Swiss franc is among the weakest G-10 currencies, falling 0.5% against the greenback after Switzerland was hit with a 39% levy by Trump. The yen outperforms, rising 0.2% after some modest jawboning from the Japanese Finance Minister.

In rates, treasuries are mixed, with outperformance at the short-end pushing 2-year yields down 2 bps. Gilts lead a selloff in European government bonds, with UK 10-year yields rising 5 bps.

In commodities, WTI crude futures fall 0.7% to $68.80 a barrel. Gold rises $5. Bitcoin falls 1%. Bitcoin is on the backfoot, and trades back below the USD 115k mark – downside which is in-fitting with the broader risk tone.

Looking at today’s US economic data calendar we get the July jobs report (8:30am), July final S&P Global US manufacturing PMI (9:45am), and July ISM manufacturing and July final University of Michigan sentiment (10am). Fed speaker slate includes Hammack (9:10am) and Bostic (10:30am)

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini -1%
• Nasdaq 100 mini -1.1%
• Russell 2000 mini -1.5%
• Stoxx Europe 600 -1.3%
• DAX -1.8%
• CAC 40 -1.9%
• 10-year Treasury yield +1 basis point at 4.38%
• VIX +2 points at 18.69
• Bloomberg Dollar Index +0.2% at 1224.03
• euro -0.1% at $1.1402
• WTI crude -0.6% at $68.86/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Donald Trump set a 10% global minimum tariff, with rates of 15% and higher for countries with significant trade surpluses with the US. BBG
• Trump says he remains open to trade deals, and negotiations are set to continue despite the new tariff rates going into effect. NBC News
• Donald Trump will impose a 39% tariff on imports from Switzerland, one of the steepest levies globally which threaten to leave the country’s key exports reeling: BBG
• Trump again criticized Powell in which he called him ‘Too late’ and said he is a terrible Fed Chair.
• US held secret talks w/Moscow this week but failed to make progress on a ceasefire, and there isn’t much hope for Witkoff’s upcoming trip to Russia to change the situation. NYT
• Asia’s factory activity deteriorated in July as soft global demand and lingering uncertainty over U.S. tariffs weighed on business morale, private sector surveys showed on Friday, clouding the outlook for the region’s fragile recovery. Reuters
• China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI returned to contractionary territory in July, as softening new business growth led factories to scale back production, falling to 49.5 from 50.4 in Jun (the Street was modeling 50.2). WSJ
• Eurozone inflation: the headline Jul CPI ran a bit hot at +2% (flat vs. June and above the Street’s +1.9% forecast) while core was inline (and flat vs. June) at +2.3%, supporting the case for officials who say there’s no rush to keep lowering rates. BBG
• The US CDC told physician groups, public health professionals and infectious disease experts that they will no longer be invited to help review vaccine data and develop recommendations. BBG
• Big Tech’s runaway results this week showed sings that AI is beginning to boost earnings, easing investor concerns about the sector’s historic spending binge on the technology. Alphabet, Meta, and Microsoft were the clear winners, adding more than $350bn in stock market value after reporting double-digit increases in revenue and net income. MSFT became the 2nd company to reach $4tn mkt cap. FT

Earnings

• Amazon.com Inc (AMZN) Q2 2025 (USD) EPS 1.68 (exp. 1.33), Rev. 167.7bln (exp. 161.91bln), AWS net sales 30.9bln (exp. 30.77bln): Co. shares -8% pre-market
• Apple Inc (AAPL) Q3 2025 (USD): EPS 1.57 (exp. 1.43), Rev. 94.04bln (exp. 89.29bln), iPhone rev. 44.58bln (exp. 44.52bln), Services rev. 27.42bln (exp. 26.80bln), Mac rev. 8.05bln (exp. 7.26bln), iPad rev. 6.58bln (exp. 7.24bln), Wearables, Home & Accessories net sales 7.40bln (exp. 7.82bln), Americas rev. 41.20bln (vs. 37.68bln y/y), Greater China rev. 15.37bln (exp. 15.12bln): Co. shares +2% pre-market

Trade/Tariffs

• US President Trump announced tariffs on countries ranging from 10%-41% including a tariff rate of 10% for Brazil, 30% for South Africa, 20% for Taiwan and 25% for India, while the order stated “These modifications shall be effective with respect to goods entered for consumption, or withdrawn from warehouse for consumption, on or after 12:01 a.m. eastern daylight time 7 days after the date of this order”.
• White House said President Trump signed an executive order modifying reciprocal tariff rates for certain countries, with the tariff on Canada increased from 25% to 35% effective August 1st, while it added that Trump determined it is necessary and appropriate to modify the reciprocal tariff rates for certain countries. Furthermore, it stated that countries listed in Annex I of the executive order will be subject to the tariff specified therein and countries not listed in Annex I will be subject to a 10% tariff, while goods transhipped to evade the 35% tariff on Canada will be subject instead to a transshipment tariff of 40%.
• US official said that if the US has a surplus with a country, the tariff rate is 10% and small deficit nations have a 15% tariff, while they are still working out technicalities of rules of origin terms for transshipment and will implement rules of origin details in the coming weeks. The official said the US has more trade deals to come and the challenge with India includes geopolitical differences over BRICS and Russia, as well as noted that differences with India cannot be resolved overnight and there is no final decision on China.
• US President Trump said on Thursday that they just made a couple of other trade deals a little while ago and later commented that Canada’s stance on a Palestinian state is not a deal-breaker. Trump also commented he may speak with Canadian PM Carney on Thursday night and he is open to further talks with Canada and open to more deals.
• US Commerce Secretary Lutnick said the China trade extension is up to US President Trump, while he stated if Canadian PM Carney complies, “maybe” Trump will reduce tariffs on Canada, but added that the 35% Trump sent in the letter is surely on the cards.
• White House Trade Adviser Navarro said the US is moving forward on progress with India, Canada and China, according to Fox News.
• Mexico’s Economy Minister Ebrard said the 90-day deal with the US was achieved without a concession from Mexico and they are moving closer to the renewal of their trade deal with the US. Ebrard separately commented that the tariff debate with the US includes concerns about intellectual property and the rules of origin panel, while he added that they have to address those issues from the perspective of revising the USMCA.
• Malaysian Trade Minister says “Pharma and Semiconductors are exempted from US tariffs”.
• Swiss Economy Ministry understands that the 39% tariff rate does not apply to pharmaceuticals.
• PBoC Deputy Governor met with US business delegation on July 29th, according to a statement, two sides had in-depth talks on US-Sino relations; China’s macroeconomic policies and the opening up of financial industry.
• India is engaged with US for further trade talks; US delegation to visit Delhi on August 24th, according to Reuters sources; India expects USD 40bln exports to impacted by the high US tariffs

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mostly subdued following the weak handover from US peers and as participants digested the latest Trump tariff adjustments ahead of the deadline and with the key US Non-Farm Payrolls report on the horizon. ASX 200 was pressured with underperformance in tech, healthcare and financials leading the declines in most sectors as sentiment is dampened amid trade uncertainty. Nikkei 225 slumped at the open but was well off today’s worst levels with a rebound facilitated by recent currency weakness. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were lacklustre mood following the latest S&P Global China General Manufacturing PMI (formerly sponsored by Caixin) which missed forecasts and surprisingly returned to contractionary territory. US equity futures lacked demand after declining on Thursday and with little impact seen following the mixed fortunes in the likes of Apple and Amazon post-earnings.

Top Asian News

• China’s MOFCOM announced tax credit policies related to direct investment by foreigners.

European bourses (STOXX 600 -1.3%) opened entirely in the red, and has continued to trundle lower as the August 1st tariff deadline passed. US President Trump announced new rates on 92 countries, which brought the average US tariff rate to 15.2% (prev. 13.3%, prev. 2.3% pre-Trump). European sectors are entirely in the red, in-fitting with the risk tone. Media is found right at the bottom of the sectoral list, pressured by post-earning losses in UMG (-6.3%); the Co. lowered its earnings forecast and highlighted rising content costs. Tech is also on the backfoot, as the sector cools from recent upside and as the risk-tone weighs. 

Top European News

• Healthcare completes the bottom three, with US President Trump to blame; he sent letters to 17 pharma companies (in both US and Europe), asking them to lower drug prices before the end of September. The likes of Novo Nordisk (-4%) and GSK (-1.7%) both move lower, but are off worst levels.

FX

• DXY began steady with the USD showing a mixed performance vs. peers. Markets are currently digesting the fallout from the latest executive orders from US President Trump, which has seen the imposition of tariffs on countries ranging from 10%-41%. This includes a tariff rate of 10% for Brazil, 30% for South Africa, 20% for Taiwan and 25% for India. Canada’s tariff increased from 25% to 35%, while Mexico received a 90-day extension of the current tariff rates. Accordingly, the average US tariff rate has risen to 15.2% (prev. 13.3%; 2.3% pre-Trump). It’s also worth noting that the July payrolls release looms large with consensus looking for the rate of job growth to slow to 110k from 147k and the unemployment rate to rise to 4.2% from 4.1%. A soft outturn could reignite expectations of a September cut. Elsewhere, ISM manufacturing data is also due on deck and we expect to hear statements from Waller and Bowman on the justification of their dissent. As the morning progressed, the DXY gained a firm footing on a 100 handle with a current session high at 100.25.
• EUR steady vs. the USD with a firmer-than-expected outturn for Eurozone inflation unable to provide much traction for the shared currency. HICP Y/Y for July remained at the 2% target (Exp. 1.9%), whilst both core metrics came in 10bps over consensus, and services declined to 3.1% from 3.3%. For now, today’s NFP print is likely to provide the greatest source of traction for EUR/USD. Again, as the morning has progressed, the mentioned USD pickup has weighed with EUR/USD now just sub-1.14.
• JPY is marginally firmer vs. the USD in what has been a bruising week for the Yen vs. the dollar. Part of this has been a USD story and part has been stemming from the fallout from the latest Japan deal, political uncertainty and a reticence yesterday for the BoJ to attempt to bolster rate hike bets. The Yen depreciation has not gone unnoticed in Tokyo with the Japanese Finance Minister Kato stating that he is “alarmed over FX moves”. On the trade front, the Nikkei reports that Japan is eyeing a 15% rate for the US chip tariff, which would be on par with the EU. After hitting a multi-month high at 150.91 overnight, USD/JPY has pulled back but remains above the 150 mark and its 200DMA at 149.56.
• GBP remains on the backfoot vs. the USD with Cable extending its losing streak to a 7th session in a row. It remains the case that macro drivers for the UK remain on the light side, however, next week will see the latest BoE policy announcement and MPR, which is 82% priced for a 25bps reduction. Cable has slipped onto 1.31 handle for the first time since 13th May with a session low at 1.3142.
• NZD is underperforming its antipodean peer in the wake of the latest Trump tariff announcements, which has seen the rate for New Zealand increase to 15% from 10% and Australia hold steady at 10%.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1496 vs exp. 7.2033 (Prev. 7.1494).

Fixed Income

• USTs are slightly softer on the final day of a very busy week. For today, the highlights are July’s NFP report, ISM Manufacturing and expected explanations of dissent from Fed’s Bowman and Waller. Thus far, USTs have been holding around the low end of a 110-28+ to 111-00+ band. The bearish bias this morning appears to be tariff-induced (i.e. higher inflation, firmer yields). For NFP, the headline is seen at 110k (prev. 147k), Unemployment Rate at 4.2% (prev. 4.1%); post-Fed, Chair Powell said the unemployment rate is the figure to watch.
• Bunds are in the red, to a slightly larger degree than USTs but faring better than Gilts (see below). Pressure this morning is likely a function of the latest tariff measures from Trump, measures which have seen tariff increases for several key economies and as such biased yields across the curve with a clear steepening bias in the early morning; though, this does come after a period of flattening for the curve. No significant reaction to any of the morning’s PMI data (the EZ-wide figure was unrevised). The day’s main EZ event was July’s Flash HICP, printed hotter than expected for the three main Y/Y metrics with all measures remaining at the prior rate – again no real move.
• Gilts are on the back foot. No fixed income pertinent newsflow specifically for the UK. Pressure is likely a function of the global inflation implications of the latest tariff measures, as discussed. Currently, Gilts are lagging peers. However, this seems to be more a function of the bouts of relative outperformance seen over the last few days rather than a UK specific. Currently, at a 91.49 low and, despite the extensive 91.16-92.28 WTD range, set to end the week with near enough unchanged.

Commodities

• Crude is on the backfoot following Thursday’s macro-induced losses as markets awaited Trump’s revised tariffs. In terms of the highlights from the announcement, the average US tariff rate has now risen to 15.2% (prev. 13.3%; 2.3% pre-Trump). China was not mentioned; EU/UK/Japan had their rates as agreed; Switzerland, New Zealand, and Canada’s tariffs were increased, while Mexico pays a lower tariff for 90 days. WTI resides in a 68.70-69.55/bbl range while Brent sits in a USD 71.18-72.00/bbl range.
• Precious metals are mostly softer despite a relatively stable dollar (DXY oscillates around 100) and despite of the broad downbeat risk tone. Focus today on NFP, ISM Manufacturing and Fed speak. Spot gold resides in a USD 3,281.74-3,300.54/oz range at the time of writing, within Thursday’s USD 3,276.28-3,314.98/oz parameter.
• 3M LME Copper is relatively stable following Thursday’s slide, which saw the CME-LME arb collapse as the US copper tariff was not as bad as feared, as the 50% tariff applied to copper pipes and wiring, whilst omitting copper input materials such as ores, concentrates and cathodes. 3M LME copper prices reside in a USD 9,597.85-9,696.30/t range.
• Codelco said a worker died and nine were injured with five missing at the Andesita mine at El Teniente in Chile after a seismic event.

Geopolitics

• US President Trump said Iran has been acting very badly and their nuclear capability was decimated but added that Iran can start again.
• US President Trump said it is disgusting what Russia is doing and they are going to put sanctions on Russia.
• China cyber association accused the US of a cyberattack on the defence sector to steal secrets, according to Bloomberg.
• Ukrainian Presidential Office head says Ukrainian partners confirm “positive signals” from the White House on Russia sanctions.

d

US Event Calendar

• US economic data slate includes July jobs report (8:30am), July final S&P Global US manufacturing PMI (9:45am), and July ISM manufacturing and July final University of Michigan sentiment (10am)
• Fed speaker slate includes Hammack (9:10am) and Bostic (10:30am)

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Welcome to August, which begins with the deadline now having been passed for tariff deals to be concluded with the United States. Much of the rhetoric and the negotiation are now behind us and we’ll now see how the rubber hits the road. The US tariff rate has risen to about 15% from a little over 2% at the start of the year. That’s their highest level since the 1930s but that has not prevented US equities from being near their all-time highs and other markets being much stronger this year.

With just a few hours to go before the August 1 deadline, last night President Trump signed an executive order outlining a new set of tariffs, including a 10% global minimum and duties of 15% or higher for countries with trade surpluses with the US. Some of the higher rates that had not previously been confirmed included 39% on Switzerland and 20% on Taiwan. The tariffs are due to take effect after August 7 which, while being a delay for technical implementation, could leave open the possibility of more countries agreeing deals in the next week. Trump also announced that tariffs on Canadian goods would rise from 25% to 35% immediately (though goods compliant with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement would remain exempt which reduces the impact). So, Canada is being singled out to a degree.
Earlier in the day, following a meeting with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, President Trump announced a 90-day extension in trade negotiations between the US and Mexico. During this period, Mexico will continue to pay a 25% tariff on non-USMCA compliant goods and cars as well as 50% on steel and aluminium. In exchange, Mexico has agreed to immediately eliminate its non-tariff trade barriers.

Meanwhile, the US Court of Appeals began hearing arguments yesterday regarding Trump’s use of tariffs, with a ruling expected “within weeks,” according to Bloomberg. The first hearing yesterday saw some sharp questions from judges on the administration’s use of International Emergency Economic Powers Act to set broad tariffs. Ahead of the hearing, Trump posted on Truth Social, warning that if the US cannot defend itself using “tariffs against tariffs,” the country would be “dead, with no chance of survival or success.”

Equity markets have seen contrasting themes over the last 24 hours as a resurgence of US “tech-ceptionalism” was offset by a broader loss of momentum.” The Mag-7 gained +1.39% to a new record high, buoyed by impressive earnings from Microsoft (+3.95%) and Meta (+11.25%), whose valuations continued to climb. Microsoft posted its largest daily gain since early May and briefly surpassed a $4 trillion market capitalisation, placing it just behind Nvidia as the world’s second-largest company.

However, the broader equity mood turned more cautious as the US session went on, with the S&P 500 retreating from its early peak of +1.01% just after the open to close -0.37% lower. And the small-cap Russell 2000 fell by -0.93%, moving back into the red YTD. While month-end effects may have played a role in this softening, there were also specific headwinds. Healthcare stocks (-2.79%) were the laggards in the S&P after Trump sent letters to 17 of the largest pharma companies, demanding they charge the US the same as other countries for new medicines and giving the companies 60 days to voluntarily comply. The Philadelphia Semiconductor index slid -3.10% after underwhelming results from Qualcomm (-7.73%) and ARM Holdings (-13.44%).

After the US close, we saw mixed results from Apple and Amazon. Apple’s shares gained around 2% after-hours following a strong revenue beat ($94bn vs $89.3bn est.) amid the strongest sales growth in more than three years which CEO Tim Cook ascribed to an acceleration across many markets including China. On the other hand, Amazon lost ground as it projected weaker-than-expected Q3 operating profits ($15.5-$20.5bn vs 19.4bs est.) and saw weaker cloud growth than rivals. Against this background, US futures are indicating a negative start with those on the S&P 500 (-0.15%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.20%) edging lower.

On the data front, June’s US core PCE—the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—rose by +0.3% month-on-month, in line with expectations. However, the year-on-year rate came in a tenth above forecast, which was hinted at by revisions in Wednesday’s GDP report. This will not go unnoticed by the Fed, especially as it exceeds the level targeted by Governor Waller, one of the two dissenters arguing for a cut at the FOMC this week. Initial jobless claims leaned hawkish, coming in at 218k versus 224k, while continuing claims were -7k below forecast at 1946k. The Employment Cost Index (ECI) for Q2 also surprised to the upside at +0.9%, a tenth above expectations. These figures are likely to draw more attention from the Fed than the personal spending data, which came in a tenth below expectations at +0.3% for June. The generally solid data saw pricing of Fed cuts by year-end decline by another -3.4bps to only 33bps. 2yr Treasury yields rose +1.5bps, while 10yr yields (+0.4bps) were steady.

Staying with data, today brings the latest US payrolls number. Our US economists expect headline payrolls to slow to +75k in July (from +147K in June) amid payback from a likely seasonal June spike in education employment, and private payrolls to gain +100k (previously +74K in June), with the unemployment rate edging up to 4.2%. You can sign up for their post-employment call to discuss the data and the impact on the Fed outlook here.

While the data supported Chair Powell’s cautious stance, Trump launched one of his most pointed attacks yet on the Fed Chair, accusing him of “costing our country trillions of dollars” and being “too political to have the job.” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent made some more softly critical remarks on CNBC, suggesting it would be “highly unusual” for Powell to remain on the Fed Board after his term ends next May. He added that the White House would begin interviewing candidates for the Fed, with a nomination announcement expected “by year-end.”

In the euro area, 10-year yields fell by 1-2bps across the board, while 2-year yields edged up slightly. Inflation data from France, Italy, and Germany was mixed. Italy’s CPI surprised slightly to the upside at +1.7% year-on-year (vs. +1.6% expected), driven by a rise in food inflation (3.9% vs. 3.3%). Germany’s July CPI, however, came in slightly below expectations at +1.8% (vs. +1.9%). Following the country releases, our European economists see this morning’s euro area headline inflation release tracking for a low +2.0% reading (consensus +1.9%) with core HICP set to hold steady at +2.3%.

European equities were more subdued ahead of the US tariff hike. The STOXX 600 fell by -0.75%, with wine and spirits companies particularly affected due to the anticipated 15% tariff on those products. A European Commission spokesperson confirmed that the EU is still negotiating for an exemption on alcoholic beverages. The CAC 40 dropped -1.14%, the DAX -0.81%, while the FTSE 100 outperformed slightly, down just -0.05%, supported by strong earnings from Rolls Royce (+8.50%).

Asian equity markets, along with US futures, are experiencing a decline this morning following the imposition of new tariffs by the US on numerous trading partners. The KOSPI (-3.23%) stands out as the largest underperformer, trading sharply lower in response to the new Finance Ministry’s proposal to increase capital gains tax (more details below). Meanwhile, Chinese stocks are relatively stable, with the Hang Seng (-0.18%), the CSI (-0.16%), and the Shanghai Composite (-0.12%) all registering minor losses after experiencing significant declines in the previous session. Additionally, the Nikkei (-0.38%) and the S&P/ASX 200 (-0.75%) are also declining in unison with their regional counterparts.

Returning to South Korea, the new government has announced an increase in the corporate tax rate from 24% to 25%, with all corporate tax brackets rising by one percentage point. Furthermore, the stock transaction tax will be raised from 0.15% to 2%. The threshold for capital gains tax on stock holdings will be reduced to 1 billion won from the current 5 billion won. These measures are intended to recover public revenue lost during two years of slowing growth and tax reductions implemented by the previous administration. As you can imagine the proposals are not proving popular amongst market participants.

Early morning data revealed that China’s manufacturing sector unexpectedly contracted in July, as a decline in export orders and weak domestic demand took their toll. The S&P Global China Manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.5 in July (compared to +50.2 expected), down from 50.4 in June. In other news, Japan’s jobless rate remained unchanged in June at 2.5%, while the jobs-to-applicants ratio fell to 1.22 (versus +1.25 expected) from 1.24 in May.

Looking ahead, today’s US data releases include the July jobs report, the ISM index, total vehicle sales, and June construction spending. We’ll also see Italy’s July manufacturing PMI, the Eurozone’s July PMI, and Canada’s July manufacturing PMI. On the earnings front, reports are expected from Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Moderna, Nintendo, and AXA.

President Trump’s letter to eighteen of the world’s largest pharmaceutical companies, including AbbVie, Amgen, AstraZeneca, Boehringer Ingelheim, Bristol Myers Squibb, Eli Lilly, EMD Serono, Genentech, Gilead, GSK, Johnson & Johnson, Merck, Novartis, Novo Nordisk, Pfizer, Regeneron, and Sanofi, demanding drug price cuts for Americans, sent a jolt through pharma stocks in Europe.

Trump’s formal letters to major big pharma, demanding immediate action to reduce U.S. drug prices to Most-Favored-Nation (MFN) levels — i.e., the lowest prices offered in any other developed nation, represent a move by his administration to stop what he calls “global freeloading” on U.S. pharma innovation, as well as for the adminstration to lower costs for all Americans – a campaign pledge he made in 2024. 

Here are the key demands Trump made in the letter to drugmakers:

• Provide MFN prices to all Medicaid patients.

• Pledge not to offer lower prices abroad for new drugs than those offered in the U.S.

• Sell drugs directly to consumers at MFN prices, bypassing middlemen.

• Raise prices abroad (via trade policy support), but reinvest those gains into lowering prices for Americans.

The letters state that if the pharma companies “refuse to step up” and comply with the federal government, Trump “will deploy every tool in our arsenal to protect American families from continued abusive drug pricing practices.” 

In markets, the letters sparked selling with Novo Nordisk in Europe down 4.4%, AstraZeneca slid 3%, GSK fell 1.9%, and Sanofi decreased by about 1.5%. Novo is set to close down more than 30% this week (read why), the largest weekly decline ever.

This follows Trump’s May 12 Executive Order: “Delivering Most-Favored-Nation Prescription Drug Pricing to American Patients.” The Trump administration has made it clear to the American people that the days of consumers paying 3 times more for brand-name drugs than other OECD nations will be over.

The most shocking stat: The U.S. comprises <5% of the global population but funds about 75% of global pharma profits.

“In case after case, our citizens pay massively higher prices than other nations pay for the same exact pill, from the same factory, effectively subsidizing socialism aboard [abroad] with skyrocketing prices at home. So we would spend tremendous amounts of money in order to provide inexpensive drugs to another country. And when I say the price is different, you can see some examples where the price is beyond anything — four times, five times different,” Trump wrote in the White House press release. 

Here’s Goldman Sachs European pharma expert Seth James’s first take in a note to clients titled “Pharm to Table”: 

Shall we just all go to the pub instead? Trump sent out letters to Pharma CEO’s last night further demanding price cuts to innovative medicines. Demands included: i) MFN pricing for all drugs offered in Medicaid. ii) MFN pricing for any new drug launched in Medicare, Medicaid and Commercial channels. iii) DTC and/or DTB distribution at MFN pricing for high volume/high-rebate prescription medicines. Administration asking for binding commitments here in the next 60 days. ADRs were weak last night trading down 1-2% from the EU close – feedback pretty mixed but leant relaxed among the specialists, most pointing to a lack of detail on mechanism of implementation which for points ii and iii is likely to need a legislative fix to enforce. Also the 60 day ‘deadline’ seen by many as an exercise in can kicking. On the details MFN pricing in Medicaid is likely most easy to implement but least impactful given the lower pricing in that channel, point ii on new drug launches would be most nefarious given the inclusion of the commercial channel which wasn’t in many scenarios I’d seen run and would likely weigh heavily on the medium term growth outlook for the industry though imagine most see as unlikely to be implemented. Am in two minds as to how this plays out – Pharma (ex-Novo) has had a little bounce of late and can see that being given back –Novo for one not helpful for perceptions of the sector this week and letters could add to the capitulation here. On the other side think the lack of detail on implementation here is oddly reassuring – part of me wants to say that this helps put at least some pressure on getting this issue resolved more quickly than the 6+ months that Novartis’ CEO outlined but given the legislative fixes required perhaps these letters only introduce another 60 day no go period for generalists in the space – with the above context would you be involved if you didn’t have to?

Moves in reaction this morning feel much more a function of positioning than exposure – AZN has among the least Medicaid exposure of all EU Pharma yet most impacted this morning, ARGX closest to pricing parity globally yet also one of the hardest hit – on the other side GSK largest Medicaid exposure of EU names yet is outperforming, though I guess valuation is also an important component in all this. What a week to be a deep value investor….. Novo warning, Bayer pre-releasing and Philips moving onto our conviction list. Richard thinks that the 2Q print marked a turning point in the story as material headwinds from China come to and end while the U.S. strength persists as we saw in the order book which we think can carry the stock to 5-6% growth in the second half o this year and beyond with a CMD on the horizon to anchor too. Once the dust settles here I think its worth spending some time with Richard and going through it all. Deeper into medtech results next week – still astounded by how weak some of the discretionary exposed names have been but even the higher quality buckets are taking a beating – GE Healthcare had to take a lot of pain and Stryker down 6% overnight on a weaker quarter for knees despite efforts to reassure on the end market.

Not 100% doom and gloom with a better quarter for NVST with premium implants growing for the 3rd straight quarter and calling out stable dental market fundamentals which encouragingly continued through July which is an exact 180 of what we heard from ALGN – certainly ups the stakes for the STMN report in a few weeks. They say its always darkest before the dawn and I don’t want to be too bearish given where we are on valuations – especially in the likes of Novo but I think the pain can always last longer than you think and stuff can stay cheap for a long time without a catalyst which is maybe a better question to end on rather than the one in the paragraph above – what’s the catalyst to turn it around for healthcare in the second half.

In a separate note, BMO Capital Markets analyst Evan David Seigerman told clients the White House has sparked some “headline shock,” but emphasized that it’s unlikely the Trump administration will be able to implement the MFN successfully. In some cases, the analyst believes the administration may even lack the legal standing to enforce these policies. More or less, he believes the MFN threat is a negotiating strategy. 

Four months after President Trump stunned the world and rattled global markets by unveiling “Liberation Day” tariff rates, his latest revisions (read here), announced Thursday, and set to go into effect in a week, sparked fresh global equity futures selling early Friday morning. With an average tariff rate of 15%, the world now faces the highest US levies since the Great Depression days of the 1930s, and these rates are roughly six times higher than one year ago and will certaintly lead to further rejiggering of supply chains. 

The new tariff rates are set to take effect in just seven days, starting at 12:01 a.m. ET. A baseline 10% tariff will apply to imports from most countries. 

Here’s what you need to know: 

• 10% Global Minimum Tariff imposed across all imports.

• Canada: Tariff raised to 35% (from 25%), but goods under USMCA remain exempt.

• Switzerland: Tariff increased to 39% (from 31%); Swiss officials criticize the change, citing divergence from prior draft terms.

• 40 Countries: Imports face a 15% tariff.

• 12+ Economies: Hit with even higher duties.

• China & Mexico: Deadline delayed by 90 days.

The list:

The multi-month wave of tariff threats sparked front-loading of exports, supporting many Asian economies and shielding US consumers from price spikes. However, that could all change…

Commenting on this is Raghuram Rajan, former India central bank governor and chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, who is now a professor at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, told Bloomberg TV earlier today, “For the rest of the world, this is a serious demand shock,” adding, “You will see a lot of central banks contemplating cutting as the rest of the world slows.” 

Oil prices are set to trend higher in the coming years, according to Standard Chartered, as the economics of U.S. shale have shifted significantly, according to OilPrice.com.

While crude has hovered near $70/bbl — close to the 20-year average of $73.38 — StanChart notes that breakeven costs in the shale patch have climbed sharply. “The average breakeven price for Permian producers is now edging back toward the mid-$60s, up from the mid-$50s just two years ago,” the bank said, attributing the rise to higher costs for steel, labor, and frac materials, in part due to U.S. tariffs.

Analysts at Rystad Energy and Wood Mackenzie share the view that today’s oil prices are unsustainably low for shale. Rystad estimates breakeven prices for new horizontal wells in key plays near $68/bbl, while WoodMac warns that without a firmer price floor, “the rig count will absolutely fall.” Both firms point to tight capital budgets, cautious reinvestment, and a continued investor focus on returns rather than growth.

OilPrice.com reports that the outlook comes as crude prices hit six-week highs. Brent crude for September rose 1.2% to $73.34/bbl, while WTI gained 1.5% to $70.24, driven by geopolitics and trade developments. President Trump extended his deadline for Russia to reach a ceasefire with Ukraine to Aug. 3 from July 14, warning of additional sanctions and tariffs if talks fail. “The new deadline caught many analysts by surprise and, if enforced, could tighten Russian crude and fuel supplies to the global market,” BOK Financial Securities said.

Oil prices also found support from a U.S.-EU trade agreement that avoided escalation into a full trade war. Under the deal, EU exports to the U.S. will face tariffs capped at 15%, providing relief to markets worried about a broader slowdown in trade.

Still, gains were tempered by a surprise U.S. crude stock build. The Energy Information Administration reported commercial crude inventories rose 7.7 million barrels in the week ending July 25 to 426.7 million barrels. While stocks remain 6% below the five-year seasonal average, the weekly jump was far larger than the 1.54 million-barrel increase reported earlier by the American Petroleum Institute, catching traders off guard.

Meanwhile, U.S. drilling activity continues to contract. The Baker Hughes rig count shows oil rigs falling for the 13th consecutive week to a 46-month low of 415, down 68 rigs year-to-date. Texas saw the steepest declines, with drilling in the Eagle Ford formation down five rigs to 34, while Permian activity slipped in both the Delaware and Midland basins.

Bloomberg reports separately that fracking activity in the Permian Basin is slowing faster than expected as tariff uncertainty and rising OPEC+ production weigh on demand. ProPetro Holding CEO Sam Sledge said only about 70 frack crews remain active in the world’s top shale region, down from roughly 100 earlier this year.

“The completions market in the Permian Basin continues to face challenges,” Sledge told analysts, citing idle capacity driven by weaker market conditions. ProPetro shares fell as much as 21% after a surprise second-quarter loss, with the company now planning 10–11 crews this quarter and potential cuts ahead.

The forecast echoes Halliburton, which said last week it will sideline equipment amid worsening U.S. shale conditions.

With U.S. output under pressure and global geopolitical risks mounting, Standard Chartered’s bullish view reflects a tightening supply picture. Many analysts see sustained prices above current levels as essential to stabilize U.S. production — a dynamic that may be shaping the Trump administration’s increasingly hard stance on Russia.

Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,

Berlin’s special state-level migration program that allowed Syrians, Afghans, and Iraqis to privately sponsor relatives has come to an abrupt end following a federal order by Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt.

In a letter to Berlin’s Finance Senator Stefan Evers, reported by Bild, Dobrindt made clear that the federal interior ministry “will not grant consent for new or for the extension of existing state reception programs.”

For over a year, Berlin’s coalition government had been divided over the program, which was introduced by the previous left-wing administration. The scheme enabled residents to bring close relatives to the city state, provided they personally covered the costs of health and long-term care insurance.

The SPD supports continuing the initiative, while the CDU remains firmly opposed.

Evers relayed the federal decision to Berlin’s Interior Senator Iris Spranger, stating that the program poses financial risks. Even when families cover the initial insurance, he warned, this “is not sufficient protection against additional costs for the state of Berlin.” He cited a lack of data and noted that after five years, the financial obligation ends, and taxpayers become responsible.

“Regardless of my department’s budgetary concerns, an extension of state admission orders can only be granted in agreement with the Federal Ministry of the Interior,” Evers wrote. With Dobrindt now firmly against it, any extension is off the table.

More than 4,000 people arrived in Berlin under the program. While the SPD approved an extension at its state party conference and both the Greens and the Left pushed for its continuation, the federal position is now decisive. A separate program for Lebanese nationals, active since 2001, was also halted last year due to security concerns.

The broader debate around family reunification has intensified across Germany. In December, the number of family reunification visas issued since 2015 surpassed 1 million. The AfD called for a full halt, with party member Martin Hess arguing that many new arrivals “will probably immigrate directly into our social systems.”

This is supported by the data.

Nearly half of Germany’s €17.68 billion in housing support for 2024 was paid out to foreigners, new government figures published last month revealed.

Last year, spending on German welfare, also known as “citizens’ money,” reached a record high of €46.7 billion, a massive 10 percent increase versus 2023, according to figures provided by the Federal Employment Agency.

As Remix News previously wrote, overall, 62.6 percent of all welfare recipients are migrants, and within the 15 to 25 age group, this number goes up to 71.3 percent.

In June, the Bundestag voted to suspend family reunification rights for migrants with “subsidiary protection” status — affecting around 380,000 people, primarily Syrians. The measure will last for two years.

Dobrindt hailed it as a “turning point” in Germany’s migration policy, aimed at easing pressure on housing, schools, and welfare, and deterring traffickers. He warned against the belief that “all you have to do is make it to Germany, then the whole family can follow suit.”

The AfD dismissed the move as political theater. Party spokesman Christian Wirth accused the government of ignoring “the complete overburdening of our country” and called the bill “a drop in the ocean.”

Co-leader Alice Weidel went further, calling the reunification pause “only a smokescreen,” and claimed that “ninety percent of the ‘refugees’ living in Germany can continue to bring their families with them.”

Read more here…

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in a Wednesday night address said Kiev is on the brink of another major arms agreement with the US. He described he presented President Donald Trump with Ukraine’s “main principles” for future weapons deals, but without specifying whether Trump has agreed to the terms.

“Today, I also agreed on the main principles of our agreements with America, Ukraine – the United States, on arms,” Zelensky stated. “Large-scale agreements, I talked about them with President Trump, and I very, very much hope that we will be able to implement all of this. This will definitely strengthen both of our countries, and therefore – our allies, our partners.”

While it was just last week that the Trump administration approved a series of arms sales to Ukraine totaling $650 million, it remains unclear if these are the same “large-scale” deals discussed by Zelensky.

The Ukrainian leader hailed all of this as part of the right direction and necessary step toward ending the war. “Right now we need to act to force Russia to peace. Yes, Moscow wants to continue fighting. But the whole issue is in the potential, the whole issue is in the resources for war, in money. That is why sanctions are useful. That is why pressure can work,” he said.

Trump also last week proclaimed the landmark Washington and the EU deal under which the bloc would pay “100% of the cost of all military equipment” provided by the US. 

“They’re going to ship it to the European Union, and then they’ll distribute it, and much of it will go to Ukraine,” he had stated.

And concerning all the latest talk about air defenses, the EU will also pay for any US-made Patriot air defense systems which are shipped – or rather forcibly donated from European countries for Ukraine. Trump has openly boasted that “this will be a business for us.”

Trump tells Ursula von der Leyen to her face that the EU won’t be getting anything less then 15% tariffs.

The EU lives in humiliation while led by these donkeys.pic.twitter.com/W1sWptZPgI

— ADAM (@AdameMedia) July 27, 2025

Politico reported earlier this week that multiple EU member states are requesting tens of billions of dollars in loans from the European Union to fund weapons purchases for Ukraine.

All of this is within the context of Trump growing frustrated at lack of peace progress, and he has increasingly laid blame squarely on Putin and Russia, this week giving Moscow just ten days to come to the negotiating table and reach a peace agreement, or else face far-reaching new sanctions, particularly secondary sanctions punishing trade partners continuing to do business with Russia.

Via The Cradle

The US Treasury Department has announced new sanctions targeting the global shipping interests reportedly controlled by Mohammad Hossein Shamkhani, son of senior Iranian official Ali Shamkhani, in what it described as the most significant Iran-related action since 2018.

The sanctions aim to dismantle what Treasury officials called a “vast network” used to sell Iranian and Russian oil through container ships and tankers operated by front companies and intermediaries.

The network, they said, generated tens of billions of dollars used to support the Iranian government.

“These profits have helped prop up the Iranian regime,” the Treasury stated, accusing Shamkhani of leveraging corruption and personal connections in Tehran to evade existing restrictions.

In total, the action designates 15 shipping firms, 52 vessels, 12 individuals, and 53 entities involved in sanctions evasion, with operations spanning 17 countries, including Panama, Italy, Hong Kong, the UAE, and the UK.

A US official said the measure was “tailored” to avoid disrupting global oil markets while striking specific targets.

“From our perspective, given where this individual fits, given his connection to the supreme leader and his father’s previous sanctions activities, given the Iran-related authorities, it’s critically important to emphasize that this is an Iran action that is meaningful and very impactful,” the official said.

The EU sanctioned Shamkhani earlier in July for his role in the Russian oil trade, and his father, Ali Shamkhani, was sanctioned by the US in 2020.

Tehran condemned the decision as a hostile move, with Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei calling it a “blatant assault on the Iranian people and their national dignity,” adding that it reflected “the hostility of American policymakers towards the Iranian people.”

He accused Washington of seeking to “cripple Iran’s development, sow internal discord, and erode the rights and livelihoods of ordinary citizens.”

“The Iranian people, fully aware of the malicious intent of the aggressive sanctioning party …, will stand firm with all their might to safeguard their dignity and interests,” Baghaei said.

He criticized the US’s “addiction” to unilateralism and said its measures repeatedly violated “international law, human rights, and freedom of sovereign trade.”

He called for international accountability and reaffirmed Iran’s “unshakeable resolve” to defend its sovereignty and continue its development goals.

Sanctioned entities include Sepehr Energy Jahan Nama Pars Company, linked to Iran’s Armed Forces General Staff. Among the targeted vessels are Bendigo, Carnatic, Luna Prime, Goodwin, Davina, and Spirit of Casper.

Germany is no longer the EU’s top destination for asylum seekers, as applications from Syrians plummet following the fall of Bashar al-Assad in December, according to an unpublished EU Agency for Asylum (EUAA) report seen by the Financial Times.

The report says the bloc’s asylum system is undergoing a “significant shift,” with May 2025 seeing 64,000 applications — nearly 25% fewer than the same month in 2024, according to the Financial Times. The drop was driven by an “extremely abrupt” fall in Syrian claims, from about 16,000 in October 2024 to just 3,100 in May.

“Since February Germany has no longer been the top EU+ destination; Spain, Italy and France all received more applications in May 2025,” the EUAA writes.

The Financial Times writes that Germany, long a top choice for Syrians, saw overall claims in May fall to 9,900 from 18,700 a year earlier. Spain now leads with 12,800 applications, mainly from Venezuelans fleeing the “severe economic and political crisis” in their country — a trend the agency partly links to U.S. deportations.

Italy is second with 12,300 claims, driven by Bangladeshis and Peruvians. France follows with 11,900, led by applicants from the Democratic Republic of Congo, Afghanistan, and Haiti.

The EUAA stressed the fall in Syrian claims is “likely not due to any asylum policy changes” but “rather, the shift likely reflects changing circumstances in Syria.”

Despite the decline, Germany still hosts the largest asylum seeker population, having granted asylum to 150,000 people in 2024, compared to about 50,900 in Spain, 40,000 in Italy, and 65,200 in France.