The U.S. restaurant industry is entering the second half of the year with renewed momentum, supported by improving sales trends, easing headwinds, and a rebound in confidence among lower- and middle-income consumers, according to a new note from UBS. This comes after lower-income consumers saw their wallets squeezed and sentiment plunged in the wake of the inflation storm sparked by the previous administration.

A team of UBS analysts led by Dennis Geiger wrote that casual dining chains continue to outperform, thanks in part to growing price gaps with quick-service and fast-casual competitors, making the full-service experience relatively more attractive for budget-conscious consumers. They see further near-term upside for the segment, with easier year-over-year comparisons in July and positive traffic trends in May. 

Overall industry visits are -.5% year-to-date through May, the breakdown by segment tells a more nuanced story. Fine dining and coffee chains have driven traffic growth, up 1.3% and 2.6%, respectively, although per-location visits remain in decline. Casual dining visits slipped 1.5% overall, but stabilized on a per-store basis amid a wave of restaurant closures. 

Quick-service restaurant (QSR) performance remains mixed. Some brands are expected to benefit from product rollouts and promotional activities, but others are under pressure due to slumping foot traffic and heightened value consciousness among lower-income customers. Fast-casual traffic trends were also mixed, with negative trends. 

Geiger cited new consumer survey data that showed a surprising improvement in confidence among lower-income consumers, a potentially bullish signal for the class of consumers battered by inflation under the Biden-Harris regime.  

Improving lower income confidence, w/ dining out spending deferrals easing

According to recent consumer survey data, consumer confidence has encouragingly improved slightly among lower income households, while the improvement is more noticeable among middle income consumers. Additionally, although dining out remains a top spending category that consumers indicated they are deferring when under financial pressure, indications of dining out deferral continued to eased in the June survey (see Charts of the Week inside). That said, consumers are concerned about the impact of tariffs, with 90% of respondents noting concern in a recent Numerator survey (in line w/ earlier results), and 81% expecting to adjust their finances or shopping habits in response. But consumers are less worried about the impact tariffs could have on the overall economy, w/ 33% worried about the impact (from 41% in late April).

Interesting to note that fewer consumers now cite dining out as a top spending category to cut back on, although 90% remain concerned about the impact of tariffs, the analysts noted. 

Charts of the Week

Valuation metrics for restaurant stocks, with companies in the UBS coverage universe highlighted in bold.

Restaurant reservation platform OpenTable shows postive trends across the industry on a state-by-state basis. This is a proxy for real-time restaurant traffic trends. 

The takeaway: Sentiment improving for lower- and middle-income consumers this summer.  

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

GOP Senator Rand Paul announced Monday that he intends to subpoena Anthony Fauci to testify regarding his role in the development of COVID-19. 

Ironically, because Fauci accepted a ‘pardon’ from Joe Biden’s autopen, it means he cannot invoke the Fifth Amendment.

This opens up the possibility of perjury charges should Fauci withhold the truth while under oath.

🚨 BREAKING: Sen. Rand Paul is preparing to SUBPOENA Dr. Fauci to testify about his role in COVID-19

Since Fauci accepted a “pardon” from Biden, he is NOT allowed to plead the fifth in this instance.

And if he lies under oath, he can be ARRESTED for perjury.

Fauci is SWEATING… pic.twitter.com/15CSiFY8Th

— Nick Sortor (@nicksortor) June 30, 2025

Appearing on Fox News, Paul explained “I’ve been trying for over three years to get non-classified records about the decision to fund the research in Wuhan, and it’s been denied.”

“But I can tell you under Secretary Kennedy, under Jay Bhattacharya, the records are beginning to flow,” Paul added.

They’d have to prove a lie, which he has no problem doing, lying. Man, I want this bastard punished. https://t.co/03KcYmvAC9

— Freedomstein Munster (@FreedomsteinM) July 1, 2025

“And what we’re discovering is yes they did debate whether or not it was gain of function,” Paul continued, referring to communications between Fauci and his cohorts.

“Fauci is going to need come back in,” Paul urged, noting “There will be an interview either voluntarily or involuntarily.”

The Senate is now gearing up to subpoena Fauci to testify under oath. The American people deserve complete transparency on the origins of COVID-19. The pandemic killed millions of people and shut down global economies.

Federal and state governments used the pandemic as a… pic.twitter.com/RwXE9Ksy37

— Senator Rand Paul (@SenRandPaul) June 30, 2025

The coronavirus outbreak brought the world’s attention to the dangers of gain-of-function research. This kind of research occurs when a virus is manipulated to increase its strength or contagiousness—literally, causing it to gain a function.

Anthony Fauci continued to repeat the… pic.twitter.com/8kbaY2z7Qe

— Senator Rand Paul (@SenRandPaul) June 30, 2025

You don’t need to be convinced that the COVID-19 virus originated from a lab leak to recognize the imminent need for oversight mechanisms – the mere possibility that the virus could have emerged from such risky research should be more than enough to prompt decisive action.

Gain…

— Senator Rand Paul (@SenRandPaul) June 30, 2025

That’s why I introduced the Risky Research Review Act—to codify permanent independent oversight of dangerous scientific research funded by U.S. taxpayers. The bill establishes anindependent Life Sciences Research Security Board to safeguard public health, safety, and national… pic.twitter.com/lwGrMQ5f9d

— Senator Rand Paul (@SenRandPaul) June 30, 2025

I didn’t just call out Fauci — I referred him for prosecution under both Biden and Trump.

Now, I’m subpoenaing his testimony before Congress.

— Senator Rand Paul (@SenRandPaul) June 30, 2025

Paul clearly has more chance of bringing Fauci to justice now RFK Jr. is in office.

This is actually quite different, given he’s no longer in power, and HHS can provide any and all info Rand needs to nab Fauci.

— Nick Sortor (@nicksortor) June 30, 2025

Kennedy himself has made it clear he believes Fauci is directly liable for creating COVID and causing the pandemic.

🚨 WOW! RFK Jr. just said he believes Fauci received a “pardon” because he was liable for creating the coronavirus

Fauci MUST be dragged to testify in front of Congress NOW! If he lies, ARREST HIM ON THE SPOT!

He should NOT be a free man. pic.twitter.com/9mQ930ytng

— Nick Sortor (@nicksortor) June 30, 2025

Rand Paul kicked the shit out of Fauci the last time he had him for questioning. Looking forward to seeing it again, maybe he can finish the job.
Fauci is a monster that needs to be put away one way or another. The whole world deserves to know his crimes.
All of them. https://t.co/rGaZMzvYyl

— Masato (@MasatoToys) July 1, 2025

Fauci has a lot to answer for.

This is the best news tonight as my 2 vaccinated friends both diagnosed with rare cancers and another with turbo pancreatic cancer. Two have died and my other friend is awaiting news from MD about treatment even though there is no cure. All diagnosed last year. https://t.co/YVvNpB7cdT

— Pamela Gethard (@pamela_gethard) July 1, 2025

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Paramount Global has agreed to pay $16 million to settle a lawsuit filed by President Trump over a 60 Minutes interview with failed presidential candidate Kamala Harris, alleging deceptive edits intended to favor Democrats. The settlement includes legal fees but no direct or indirect payment to Trump; instead, the funds are allocated to his future presidential library. Paramount did not offer an apology or admit wrongdoing—yet another display of arrogance from a leftist legacy media in terminal decline as ratings plunge to record lows.

🚨BREAKING: CBS ordered to pay Trump $16M over the deceptively edited 60 minutes Kamala Harris interview! pic.twitter.com/VCl7Xrruim

— Autism Capital 🧩 (@AutismCapital) July 2, 2025

Here’s a breakdown of the settlement terms agreed upon by Paramount and President Trump’s legal team: 

Paramount has reached an agreement in principle to resolve the lawsuit filed by President Trump and Representative Jackson in the Northern District of Texas and a threatened defamation action concerning a separate 60 Minutes report.

Summary of terms

• Under the terms of the settlement, which were proposed by the mediator, Paramount will pay $16M in total, which includes plaintiffs’ fees and costs, and except for fees and costs, will be allocated to the future presidential library.

• No amount will be paid directly or indirectly to President Trump or Rep. Jackson personally. The settlement will include a release of all claims regarding any CBS reporting through the date of the settlement, including the Texas action and the threatened defamation action.

• The Company has agreed that in the future, 60 Minutes will release transcripts of interviews with eligible U.S. presidential candidates after such interviews have aired, subject to redactions as required for legal or national security concerns.

• The settlement does not include a statement of apology or regret.

BREAKING

Paramount settled the lawsuit with President Trump for the editing of the 60 Minutes interview of Kamala Harris.

$16 million for President Trump’s presidential library.

60 Minutes will release the transcripts of future interviews.

President Trump will not get his… pic.twitter.com/UecdDljb4A

— Kevin Dalton (@TheKevinDalton) July 2, 2025

Trump’s legal team filed a $10 billion lawsuit in the Northern District of Texas late last year, alleging deceptive editing of Harris’ botched interview. 

Kamala’s word salad on 60 Minutes

Remember Kamala’s word salad answer about Israel on 60 Minutes? It’s gone.

This is what many Americans will now see. pic.twitter.com/H4w7btDv6x

— MAZE (@mazemoore) October 8, 2024

A spokesperson for Trump’s legal team told NBC News in a statement: “With this record settlement, President Donald J. Trump delivers another win for the American people as he, once again, holds the Fake News media accountable for their wrongdoing and deceit. CBS and Paramount Global realized the strength of this historic case and had no choice but to settle.”

Authored by Wesley Brown via The Epoch Times,

Nearly 72 million people are expected to travel during the Fourth of July holiday, likely leading to crowded highway traffic and congested airports across the United States. However, holiday travelers should also see lower gas prices and airfares as they go to their Independence Day destinations, experts say.

Nationally, AAA Travel, the travel‐services arm of the American Automobile Association, forecasts that 72.2 million people will travel at least 50 miles from home during the Independence Day holiday period from June 28 to July 6. This year’s domestic travel projection is 1.7 million more travelers than last year and 7 million more than in 2019.

“Summertime is one of the busiest travel seasons of the year, and July 4th is one of the most popular times to get away,” Stacey Barber, vice president of AAA Travel, said.

“Following Memorial Day’s record forecast, AAA is seeing strong demand for road trips and air travel over Independence Day week. With the holiday falling on a Friday, travelers have the option of making it a long weekend or taking the entire week to make memories with family and friends.”

AAA’s annual Independence Day forecast now includes two weekends instead of one, better reflecting the flow of holiday travelers, officials said. However, the U.S. Transportation Security Administration’s travel projections for the airline industry run from July 1 through July 7, with the highest passenger volume—about 2.9 million—expected on July 6.

According to Transportation Security Administration (TSA) officials, airports across the United States expect the highest passenger numbers ever for the nation’s 249th birthday. TSA staff at airports nationwide said they are prepared to screen more than 18.5 million travelers at the country’s security checkpoints.

Already on June 22, the TSA reported that it screened nearly 3.1 million travelers, the busiest single day number in the agency’s history, and more than 40 days after REAL ID enforcement came into full force at airport checkpoints nationwide on May 7.

“TSA continues to work closely with our industry partners and ensure our airport security checkpoints are fully staffed and prepared to handle the heavy rush of traffic,” TSA acting Administrator Ha Nguyen McNeill said in a statement provided to The Epoch Times.

“We are deploying technologies and procedures to improve security and enhance the passenger experience, including for families. We ask travelers to pack their patience, especially during peak travel days, as we work to provide maximum hospitality to our customers,” McNeil said, noting that nearly 94 percent of passengers are presenting a REAL ID or another acceptable form of ID to travel domestically in the United States.

Ahead of the holiday travel season, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is predicting the busiest Fourth of July week in 15 years, with July 3 expected to see more than 51,000 domestic and international flights. Airlines for America (A4A) is also forecasting another record-breaking summer travel season, projecting that the nation’s top airlines will carry 272 million passengers from June 1 through August 31.

To accommodate this demand, A4A spokeswoman Amanda Maile told The Epoch Times that U.S. airlines are operating 27,000 flights daily—up by 4 percent from last year.

“Premium and international demand this summer are expected to remain strong, with the top foreign destinations for U.S. airlines projected to be Mexico, Canada, Dominican Republic, United Kingdom and Italy,” she said.

Meanwhile, U.S. motorists on the busy highways will notice slightly higher gas prices compared to a month ago, but still significantly lower than the Fourth of July travel period in 2024, according to AAA’s weekly gas price report.

As of this week, the national average for a gallon of regular gasoline is $3.22, five cents more than a month ago before crude oil prices started rising again after U.S. airstrikes targeted Iran nuclear facilities.

However, pump prices remain 27 cents cheaper than this time last year and the lowest for the July 4th weekend since 2021…

The nation’s 10 most expensive gasoline markets are California ($4.62), Hawaii ($4.47), Washington ($4.45), Oregon ($4.06), Nevada ($3.81), Alaska ($3.74), Illinois ($3.49), Idaho ($3.43), Pennsylvania ($3.39), and Utah ($3.37).

The 10 least expensive markets are Mississippi ($2.73), Oklahoma ($2.81), Texas ($2.82), Tennessee ($2.82), Louisiana ($2.82), Arkansas ($2.83), Alabama ($2.84), Missouri ($2.85), South Carolina ($2.91), and Kansas ($2.91).

For electric vehicle drivers, the national average price per kilowatt-hour of electricity at a public EV charging station remained steady this past week at 36 cents, according to AAA data.

The top 10 most expensive states for EV charging rates per hour are West Virginia (51 cents), Alaska (51 cents), Tennessee (47 cents), Montana (46 cents), Hawaii (45 cents), North Dakota (42 cents), New Hampshire (42 cents), Kentucky (42 cents), South Carolina (42 cents), and Louisiana (42 cents).

The nation’s top 10 least expensive states for EV rates during the holiday are Kansas (26 cents), Missouri (27 cents), Maryland (27 cents), Nebraska (30 cents), Delaware (30 cents), Utah (30 cents), Iowa (32 cents), Washington, D.C. (32 cents), Colorado (33 cents), and North Carolina (33 cents).

With just one week left until the July 9 trade deal deadline, which some suspect could have a similar adverse impact on markets as the first Liberation Day – even if stocks are completely oblivious to the risk – moments ago Trump gave a stark reminder just how high the trade stakes are when he announced that the US has made a trade deal with Vietnam.

According to the terms, Vietnam will pay the United States:

• 20% Tariff on any and all goods sent into our Territory,
• 40% Tariff on any Transshipping, which is squarely aimed at China which uses Vietnam as a reshipment/tolling hub.  

Of the two, one can argue that the transshipment clause is more important because in recent weeks China had threatened that any country that makes a deal with the US at its expense would make it very angry. Which means that Xi is now terribly vexed. 

In any case, in return for the tariffs, Trump said that “Vietnam will do something that they have never done before, give the United States of America TOTAL ACCESS to their Markets for Trade. In other words, they will “OPEN THEIR MARKET TO THE UNITED STATES,” meaning that, we will be able to sell our product into Vietnam at ZERO Tariff.”

Which is hardly a big deal, since the US barely exports to Vietnam.

what does matter is that a deal has been struck however, and now many other Asian countries will scramble to do the same, even if it is at terms that antagonize China (like in this case). Amusingly,  Trump said that as a result of the deal, US SUVs will be a “wonderful addition” to various product lines within Vietnam.

It is my opinion that the SUV or, as it is sometimes referred to, Large Engine Vehicle, which does so well in the United States, will be a wonderful addition to the various product lines within Vietnam. Dealing with General Secretary To Lam, which I did personally, was an absolute pleasure. 

While stocks initially dipped on seeing the 20% print, they have since rebounded and recovered all losses, and trade at session highs, as algos remain completely oblivious that behind the scenes, huge tension is once again building up between the US and China, which is negotiating deals that Beijing will view as offensive, making the odds of an actual trade deal with Beijing much lower than most expect. 

Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times,

A coalition of 20 state attorneys general filed a lawsuit against the Trump administration on July 1, challenging its decision to hand over the personal data of some Medicaid enrollees to the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), which oversees Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).

The complaint, led by California Attorney General Rob Bonta, was filed in the District Court for the Northern District of California and alleges that the mass transfer of data violates federal health privacy protection laws, including the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA), as well as the Federal Information Security Modernization Act and the Privacy Act.

The attorneys general are asking the court to find that the administration’s transfer of Medicaid data was unauthorized and illegal under federal law, including the Administrative Procedure Act. They are seeking to block the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) from making further transfers of such data to the DHS, the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), or any other federal agency.

The attorneys general also asked the court to prevent any federal agency from using Medicaid data for immigration enforcement, population surveillance, or similar purposes, and to order the destruction of any data that has already been transferred.

“The Trump Administration has upended longstanding privacy protections with its decision to illegally share sensitive, personal health data with ICE. In doing so, it has created a culture of fear that will lead to fewer people seeking vital emergency medical care,” Bonta said in a July 1 statement.

“We’re headed to court to prevent any further sharing of Medicaid data—and to ensure any of the data that’s already been shared is not used for immigration enforcement purposes.”

As of January 2025, 78.4 million people were enrolled in Medicaid and the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP) across the United States, according to the lawsuit.

The complaint notes that a certain amount of personal data is routinely exchanged between the states and the federal government for the purpose of verifying eligibility for Medicaid.

In June, California, Illinois, and Washington state learned that HHS had disclosed “en masse” private Medicaid files to DHS representing millions of individuals, according to the lawsuit.

All of those states allow illegal immigrants to enroll in Medicaid programs that pay for their expenses using only state taxpayer dollars.

The data was “personally identifiable, not anonymized or hashed, and it included Medicaid beneficiaries’ immigration status and addresses, among other details,” the complaint states.

Plaintiffs in the lawsuit note that HHS said it handed over the massive amount of personal data to DHS “to ensure that Medicaid benefits are reserved for individuals who are lawfully entitled to receive them.”

In May, Dr. Mehmet Oz, administrator of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS), said his agency and DOGE had identified at least $14 billion in Medicaid fraud, waste, and abuse, including individuals who wrongly enrolled in the program across multiple states.

The context in which the data was shared with ICE, however, “casts serious doubt on the government’s explanation for its actions,” the attorneys general wrote in their lawsuit.

They said the federal government is creating a large database for “’mass deportations’ and other large-scale immigration enforcement and mass surveillance purposes.”

“Plaintiffs bring this action to protect their State Medicaid programs, and to prevent them from being used in service of an anti-immigrant crusade, or other purposes unrelated to administration of those programs,” the suit states.

The states of Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Massachusetts, Maine, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, and Washington have joined California in the lawsuit.

HHS spokesman Andrew Nixon said in a statement last month that the department is “aggressively cracking down on states that may be misusing federal Medicaid funds.”

Nixon also said that the data sharing was legal.

“HHS acted entirely within its legal authority–and in full compliance with all applicable laws–to ensure that Medicaid benefits are reserved for individuals who are lawfully entitled to receive them,” he said.

The Epoch Times reached out to the HHS and DHS for further comment but did not receive a response by publication time.

Seattle Times business reporter Alex Halverson just published a breaking story on Microsoft’s latest wave of layoffs, which will affect up to 9,100 employees—roughly 4% of its 228,000-person workforce. The move is part of a broader cost-cutting and restructuring effort.

Halverson provided more color:  

Microsoft is kicking off its fiscal year by firing thousands of employees in the largest round of layoffs since 2023, the company confirmed Wednesday.

In an ongoing effort to streamline its workforce, Microsoft said that as much as 4%, or roughly 9,100, of the company’s employees could be affected by Wednesday’s layoffs. It’s unclear how many are based in Washington. The move follows two waves of layoffs in May and June, which saw Microsoft fire more than 6,000 employees, almost 2,300 of whom were based in Washington.

Data compiled by Bloomberg shows Microsoft’s workforce stands at 228,000 (as of 4Q24). A 4% cut suggests that as data centers come online, many white-collar roles are becoming obsolete, marking what could be a generational peak in its total headcount.

And it may signal further job declines ahead for Microsoft, as new data centers come online to support AI tools, driving productivity gains.

Expired: workers
Wired: data centers https://t.co/4gLaWSXzm6 pic.twitter.com/KJRu9NQApc

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 2, 2025

Related: 

• Takeover Begins: Robots Set To Outnumber Humans At Amazon Warehouses

Additionally, a new report released on Tuesday suggested that Amazon has reached its employment peak due to increasing automation and AI trends in its warehouses.

For a clearer picture of how many jobs AI will displace, see this 2023 Goldman report. 

Submitted by QTR’s Fringe Finance

Yesterday, someone left a comment on my post about Zohran Mamdani that stuck with me in a way few internet comments ever do. It wasn’t defensive or hostile—it was sobering.

The commenter challenged me, not to just oppose Mamdani’s ideology, but to think about why his message resonates at all. Here’s what they said:

“You really ought to ask yourself: why does his message resonate? Why did Russia have a revolution? People don’t wake up, make the espresso, make an omelet, look out the back window across their deck, the lake, the boat, ready for a day of country living, and say ‘You know what, honey… how about we start that revolution today?’ Nobody does that. Revolutions are made by very unhappy people. Why are they unhappy? Mostly because society largely doesn’t work for them… There is a lot of pain out there, and a lot of it is honest pain.”

They’re right. There is a lot of honest pain.

And if you’ve followed anything I’ve written over the last several years, you know I’ve been screaming into the void about how broken our monetary system is. We have created an economy where the top 10% get wealthier with each crisis, while the bottom 50% watches their standard of living deteriorate. I’ve described it here when talking about the GameStop crisis (33:40).

The frustration bubbling beneath the surface is not irrational. It’s earned.

People are watching the price of everything explode—housing, food, healthcare, energy—while wages stagnate. Meanwhile, Wall Street breaks records quarter after quarter. That disconnect doesn’t feel like capitalism to the average person. It feels rigged.

So when someone like Mamdani shows up and says “seize the means of production,” it doesn’t sound crazy to people living paycheck to paycheck. It sounds like maybe, finally, someone is taking their suffering seriously.

But here’s the part no one wants to talk about—especially not in polite political circles: the real culprit behind this pain is our broken monetary system. And both parties are to blame.

I laid this out in March, and it bears repeating. The U.S. is now at $35 trillion in federal debt. That number alone is alarming—but the speed at which we’re accumulating debt is what’s truly terrifying. Since 2020, we’ve added over $12 trillion. No one in D.C. talks seriously about it because monetary policy is the third rail. Touch it and you’re finished.

Worse, Democrats have embraced a mindset that spending can and should be infinite—as if the dollar is magic and gravity no longer applies. They’ve adopted the pseudo-academic gospel of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT), which argues the Fed can just print money without consequences. This idea has infected the left’s fiscal agenda with delusional confidence that everything can be free, deficits don’t matter, and taxes can rise forever.

But as I pointed out before: MMT doesn’t help the poor. It accelerates wealth inequality. I noted this in March 2025 using this chart:

The more the Fed prints, the higher asset prices go. Who owns the assets? The top 10%. Who gets wrecked by inflation? The working class. Every time the Fed steps in with more easing, more QE, more bond buying, the rich pull further away from everyone else. Look at the chart of wealth distribution over the past 30 years—it’s not just widening, it’s going vertical. And it’s not just happening by accident. It’s a direct consequence of our monetary policy.

Democrats say they care about “equity,” but their economic policy ensures the exact opposite. The bigger government gets, the more it feeds on debt, the more the Fed has to monetize it, and the more billionaires benefit. This is not some conspiracy. It’s math. It’s observable. It’s policy. And it’s failure.

I understand why people are drawn to Mamdani’s message. When you’re crushed by rising costs and watching others get rich doing nothing but holding assets, radical solutions sound appealing. But replacing broken monetary policy with socialism isn’t just wrong—it’s disastrously wrong. Every society that’s tried it has ended up worse off: Soviet Russia, Mao’s China, Venezuela, Cuba. The promises are always the same—fairness, justice, redistribution—and the results are always scarcity, repression, and collapse.

🔥 JULY 4 SALE – 50% OFF FOR LIFE: Using this coupon entitles you to 50% off an annual subscription to Fringe Finance for life: Get 50% off forever

I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: the problem isn’t too much capitalism. The problem is we don’t have capitalism at all. We have central planning by unelected technocrats who distort markets, crush price signals, and rob the average American of any real shot at building wealth. And Democrats, for all their talk of the working class, are pushing harder than ever toward a centrally planned future with no brakes.

The solution isn’t to seize the means of production. The solution is to restore sound money, shrink the size of government, and reintroduce real market discipline. That’s how you give people a shot—not by handing them utopian slogans, but by fixing the corrupt system that’s keeping them down.

There’s a lot of honest pain out there. And that pain deserves a real answer. MMT is not the answer. Socialism is not the answer. A return to true capitalism—not cronyism, not corporatism, but honest, competitive markets—is the only way forward.

QTR’s Disclaimer: Please read my full legal disclaimer on my About page here. This post represents my opinions only. In addition, please understand I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. Contributor posts and aggregated posts have been hand selected by me, have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors. They are either submitted to QTR by their author, reprinted under a Creative Commons license with my best effort to uphold what the license asks, or with the permission of the author.

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I may or may not own names I write about and are watching. Sometimes I’m bullish without owning things, sometimes I’m bearish and do own things. Just assume my positions could be exactly the opposite of what you think they are just in case. If I’m long I could quickly be short and vice versa. I won’t update my positions. All positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice and at any point I can be long, short or neutral on any position. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. I edit after my posts are published because I’m impatient and lazy, so if you see a typo, check back in a half hour. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important.

Tesla’s Q2 delivery numbers came in at 384,122 vehicles, just below the estimate of 389,407. While estimates had been lowered multiple times, the number is still better than whisper numbers as low as 350k or 360k that were starting to make their way around the street over the past week. As a result, Tesla stock has popped this morning by almost 7%.

Production beat expectations. Tesla built 410,244 vehicles, compared to the forecast of 400,083. 

Model 3 and Model Y deliveries totaled 373,728, slightly under the estimate of 377,295.

The “Other Models” category — including the Model S, X, and Cybertruck — showed Tesla delivered 10,394 vehicles, below the expected 14,644.

Production of these models also came in slightly under, at 13,409 compared to the estimate of 13,616.

Model 3 and Y production reached 396,835 units, higher than the expected 383,567, suggesting Tesla had ramped up output of its most popular models.

Ahead of Tesla’s Q2 2025 delivery report, expectations were subdued amid signs of continued demand weakness and investor concerns over the company’s growth trajectory. Analysts widely anticipated another disappointing quarter, despite hopes pinned on the rollout of a refreshed Model Y and the company’s long-term robotaxi ambitions.

The Bloomberg consensus projected Tesla would report global deliveries of 395,328, representing an 11% year-over-year decline, though still higher than the 336,700 vehicles delivered in Q1. Production was expected to hit 443,321 units, up from 410,800 in the same period last year.

However, some firms were significantly more bearish. Wells Fargo predicted a 21% drop in deliveries from a year ago, estimating just 343,000 units — far below consensus. JPMorgan cut its estimate to 360,000, calling it a “sizable” 8% miss versus consensus. UBS was only slightly more optimistic, forecasting 366,000 units.

Expectations were tempered by hard data from Tesla’s largest markets. In Europe, Tesla registrations fell 27.9% in May, despite overall EV registrations in the region growing 25%, according to the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA). Year to date, Tesla’s European sales were down 37.1%.

In the U.S., April registrations dropped 16% to 39,913 units. Meanwhile, Chevrolet’s EV registrations surged 215%, overtaking Tesla in growth, while Ford saw a 33% drop.

At the start of Q2, analysts were still optimistic, projecting 444,000 deliveries — in line with the same period in 2024. That forecast steadily declined as market data revealed Tesla wasn’t production-constrained, but rather grappling with a demand problem, despite aggressive discounts and 0% financing offers on the Model 3 and Model Y.

Ahead of this morning’s data, Bloomberg reports that Elon Musk has assumed direct oversight of Tesla’s sales operations in the United States and Europe, following the recent exit of longtime executive Omead Afshar.

Afshar, who left the company in late June, previously led sales and manufacturing across both regions.

The leadership shift comes as Tesla faces continued sales declines. Musk is now overseeing North American and European sales, while Senior Vice President Tom Zhu retains control of Asia and takes charge of global manufacturing. Zhu, who joined Tesla in 2014 and led the launch of its Shanghai Gigafactory, will now oversee factory heads including Hrushi Sagar in Fremont and Jason Shawhan in Austin. Meanwhile, Troy Jones, Tesla’s vice president of North American sales, now reports directly to Musk.

Musk’s hands-on role in Europe is especially notable. He has previously described the continent as Tesla’s “weakest market.” Sales data supports that: vehicle registrations across Europe dropped 28% in May and are down 37% for the year so far, while Chinese rivals like BYD continue to gain ground.

“Tesla’s sluggish sales” are again under scrutiny as more affordable models are delayed and consumer sentiment remains mixed. With another year of declining deliveries likely, investors are bracing for a second consecutive annual drop.

After a stint overseeing global operations from the U.S., Zhu returned to China last year due to regulatory issues tied to Tesla’s driver-assist features.

Since then, Chinese authorities have proposed new data guidelines that may help Tesla expand its advanced driving systems in the country.

Ten-year gilt yields just spiked by more than 10 bps on rumors that UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves was about to resign or be ousted.

The pressure on Reeves comes after Starmer — in a dramatic climbdown on Tuesday — abandoned controversial plans to restrict benefit payments to some disabled people, a reform pushed by the chancellor which would have saved some £5 billion ($6.9 billion), and was key to meeting her self-imposed budgetary rules at her spring statement in March.

Bloomberg reports that the welfare reform package was widely opposed by Labour MPs, with more than 120 originally threatening to vote against the policy in parliament.

Even after the last-ditch decision to drop the most contentious changes, 49 Labour MPs still voted against the bill on Tuesday, a sign of the scale of discontent.

The rebellion and U-turn are a serious blow to Starmer’s political authority as he approaches the first anniversary of Labour’s election win last July.

The decision to ditch the welfare reforms also leaves Reeves facing a widening fiscal hole of more than £6 billion to fill, including the need to fund a separate about-turn on a plan to cut winter fuel payments to pensioners.

As Bloomberg further reports, Starmer’s press secretary, Sophie Nazemi, quickly clarified his position to reporters after PMQs, saying that Reeves was going nowhere.

“She has the prime minister’s full backing,” Nazemi said.

“He’s said it repeatedly.”

The combination of Starmer’s failure to back his chancellor, and Reeves’ tears, prompted speculation about her position until the Treasury clarified that the reason for her demeanor was a personal issue.

“It’s a personal matter, which – as you would expect – we are not going to get into,” the Treasury said in a statement.

“The chancellor will be working out of Downing Street this afternoon.”

A tear just rolled down the Chancellor’s cheek at #PMQs as the PM refuses to answer whether or not she’ll stay in her job.

Hayfever, or something else? pic.twitter.com/HPXXQlDNo9

— Paul Brand (@PaulBrandITV) July 2, 2025

But, as Bloomberg’s Simon White notes, the rapidity of the move shows the precariousness of the UK’s debt situation.

The government had planned a series of cuts to welfare and sickness benefits, but had to drastically scale them back in the face of huge opposition from backbench MPs.

The watered down changes are estimated to deliver no savings overall.

A new chancellor might drop Reeves’ commitment to not borrow more for day-to-day activities, or increase spending, justifying a deepening concern for the gilt market.

Cable tumbled…

Yields are still near their day’s highs, while a risk measure for the UK, based on asset swaps, country bond spreads and basis swaps, has widened notably.

Keep watching.