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‘He Knew We’d Attack’ – Israel Complains At Trump’s Comments After Iran Ceasefire Falters

‘He Knew We’d Attack’ – Israel Complains At Trump’s Comments After Iran Ceasefire Falters

Despite last night’s big news of a Trump-declared ceasefire, the reality is it was little more than an effort at a pause, and it’s increasingly looking like neither side actually signed onto. Or at least each side issued ‘confirmation’ with a lot of conditions, and there wasn’t even firm agreement on the start time.

As the US- and Qatar-brokered ceasefire deadline closed in, Israel and Iran kept exchanging lethal blows overnight, with Israel hitting various targets in Iran, killing nine people in northern Iran and reportedly assassinating yet another nuclear scientist, while Iran killed at least four Israelis in a devastating hit on an apartment tower. At eight minutes after midnight in Washington, President Trump used his Truth Social account to announce the ceasefire was in effect, and to urge continued compliance.

But as of Tuesday morning, Trump’s message is one of extreme frustration. His fiery statement to the press just moments before boarding Marine One included the declaration, “We basically have two countries that have been fighting so long and so hard that they don’t know what the f*ck they’re doing. You understand that.” Watch the comments below:

The warring sides have not heeded Trump’s call to immediately halt, and at the very moment the US president has been issuing desperate messages and warnings, explosions are still being observed in Israel and Iran.

Just after the president addressed the press, Israel’s Channel 12 said IDF warplanes have launched another round of strikes against Tehran. This also just as Trump issued a new Truth Social post demanding that Israel not attack Iran. “All planes will turn around and head home,” he wrote, almost as a directive, so that “Nobody will be hurt” as “the Ceasefire is in effect!”

A big question remains whether he’s bringing real leverage to bear against Israel, or if the latest ‘objections’ are more just show to provide political cover for himself for the negative fallout as war persists. But his current deeply frustrated tone is a reminder of the failures to achieve peace in Ukraine, and the past Ukraine-Russia related statements to just ‘let them fight it out’ of the last months.

Axios’ Barak Ravid offers up an explanation (per machine translation):

Israeli official: Trump called Netanyahu and asked him not to attack Iran at all. Netanyahu told Trump that he could not cancel the attack and that some kind of response was needed to Iran’s violation of the ceasefire. Ultimately, it was decided to significantly scale down the attack and cancel the attack on a large number of targets

Times of Israel has also freshly commented on the obvious miscommunication and apparent growing rift among allies concerning plans for the Iran conflict, and whether to halt the fighting of keep up the attacks:

Trump was sending out posts on his Truth Social platform promising that Israel will not strike Iran “after he knew we would attack,” an Israeli official tells the Kan public broadcast.

Israeli officials confirmed that the IAF struck an Iranian radar site north of Tehran, after Iran fired two ballistic missiles at Israel after a ceasefire had taken effect.

But it’s still possible, amid the finger-pointing, that ceasefire could take effect Tuesday, though it’s anyone’s guess precisely when.

In the overnight hours there was this large Israeli attack on Tehran even after ceasefire was announced to the world:

It may in the end have little substantive to make it stick, and might prove merely a pause or temporary respite for both sides to assess damage and regroup. Here’s how we got here, via Newsquawk:

  • US President Trump announced that Israel and Iran agreed to a complete and total ceasefire, from 05:00BST/00:00ET, which would last for 12 hours. After which, the war would be considered officially ended.
  • Under the ceasefire announced by Trump, Iran would stop striking Israel in six hours (at midnight ET on Tuesday), and Israel is expected to stop striking Iran 12 hours after that (at noon ET Tuesday). Then, after another 12 hours, or at midnight ET Wednesday, the war will be considered over, a White House official confirmed to CBS News.
  • Strikes continued into and after the Iranian proposed time of 01:30BST/20:30ET. After the Trump deadline of 05:00BST/00:00ET, Iran is said to have fired some missiles at Israel, though they claim it was fired just before the deadline.
  • At 06:04BST/01:04ET Trump posted that the “ceasefire is now in effect”.
  • At 07:17BST/02:17ET Israeli PM Netanyahu confirmed the ceasefire is now in effect, war achieved its goals, will respond forcefully to any violations. PM’s office adds that Netanyahu will deliver a statement later today.
  • The ceasefire agreement seems to have broken down only 4 hours after being in effect, with the IDF suggesting it had detected and intercepted fresh ballistic missiles from Iran. In response to this latest attack, the IDF Minister instructed the military to respond “forcefully” to Iran’s violation of the ceasefire. Iran has denied firing missiles at Israel after the ceasefire.

Iran’s overnight missile strike on a residential home in Be’er Sheba resulted in some shocking scenes of people seeking to get out and survive the nightmarish ordeal:

Aftermath and rescue efforts of the hit on the Beersheba residential building:

Israel is now feeling the drive for vengeance for this and other devastating blows from the Islamic Republic, despite Trump in this rare moment expressing that he’s “really unhappy” with Israel. “Bring your pilots home, now!” – is the message not being heeded.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 06/24/2025 – 08:50

Trump Slams “Dumb” Fed Chair As Powell Shrugs Off Dovish Colleagues, Reiterates “No Rush” To Cut

Trump Slams “Dumb” Fed Chair As Powell Shrugs Off Dovish Colleagues, Reiterates “No Rush” To Cut

In his prepared remarks ahead of this morning’s Humphrey-Hawkins testimony to Congress, Fed Chair Powell reiterated his comments from last week’s FOMC that the central bank is in no rush to lower interest rates as officials wait for more clarity on the economic impact of President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

“The effects of tariffs will depend, among other things, on their ultimate level,” Powell said Tuesday in remarks prepared for delivery to Congress.

“For the time being, we are well positioned to wait to learn more about the likely course of the economy before considering any adjustments to our policy stance.”

His comments – with no a bit of dovishness – comes after three of his colleagues (Waller, Bowden, and Goolsbee) all hinted at rate cuts as soon as July in recent days.

Powell said the tariffs’ impact on inflation could be short-lived or possibly be more persistent.

“Expectations of that level, and thus of the related economic effects, reached a peak in April and have since declined,” Powell said in a statement that largely echoed remarks he delivered last week.

“Even so, increases in tariffs this year are likely to push up prices and weigh on economic activity.”

Avoiding the latter outcome “will depend on the size of the tariff effects, on how long it takes for them to pass through fully into prices and, ultimately, on keeping longer-term inflation expectations well anchored,” he said.

President Trump chimed in (early): 

“‘Too Late’ Jerome Powell, of the Fed, will be in Congress today in order to explain, among other things, why he is refusing to lower the Rate,” Trump said on social media early Tuesday.

“I hope Congress really works this very dumb, hardheaded person, over. We will be paying for his incompetence for many years to come.”

Economic data so far has shown limited impact from tariffs.

Does make you wonder about “Fed Independence”…

*  *  *

Read Powell’s full prepared remarks below:

Chairman Hill, Ranking Member Waters, and other members of the Committee, I appreciate the opportunity to present the Federal Reserve’s semiannual Monetary Policy Report.

The Federal Reserve remains squarely focused on achieving our dual-mandate goals of maximum employment and stable prices for the benefit of the American people. Despite elevated uncertainty, the economy is in a solid position. The unemployment rate remains low, and the labor market is at or near maximum employment. Inflation has come down a great deal but has been running somewhat above our 2 percent longer-run objective. We are attentive to the risks to both sides of our dual mandate.

I will review the current economic situation before turning to monetary policy.

Current Economic Situation and Outlook

Incoming data suggest that the economy remains solid. Following growth of 2.5 percent last year, gross domestic product (GDP) was reported to have edged down in the first quarter, reflecting swings in net exports that were driven by businesses bringing in imports ahead of potential tariffs. This unusual swing has complicated GDP measurement. Private domestic final purchases (PDFP)—which excludes net exports, inventory investment, and government spending—grew at a solid 2.5 percent rate. Within PDFP, growth of consumer spending moderated, while investment in equipment and intangibles rebounded from weakness in the fourth quarter. Surveys of households and businesses, however, report a decline in sentiment over recent months and elevated uncertainty about the economic outlook, largely reflecting trade policy concerns. It remains to be seen how these developments might affect future spending and investment.

In the labor market, conditions have remained solid. Payroll job gains averaged a moderate 124,000 per month in the first five months of the year. The unemployment rate, at 4.2 percent in May, remains low and has stayed in a narrow range for the past year. Wage growth has continued to moderate while still outpacing inflation. Overall, a wide set of indicators suggests that conditions in the labor market are broadly in balance and consistent with maximum employment. The labor market is not a source of significant inflationary pressures. The strong labor market conditions in recent years have helped narrow long-standing disparities in employment and earnings across demographic groups.

Inflation has eased significantly from its highs in mid-2022 but remains somewhat elevated relative to our 2 percent longer-run goal. Estimates based on the consumer price index and other data indicate that total personal consumption expenditures (PCE) prices rose 2.3 percent over the 12 months ending in May and that, excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core PCE prices rose 2.6 percent. Near-term measures of inflation expectations have moved up over recent months, as reflected in both market- and survey-based measures. Respondents to surveys of consumers, businesses, and professional forecasters point to tariffs as the driving factor. Beyond the next year or so, however, most measures of longer-term expectations remain consistent with our 2 percent inflation goal.

Monetary Policy

Our monetary policy actions are guided by our dual mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices for the American people. With the labor market at or near maximum employment and inflation remaining somewhat elevated, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has maintained the target range for the federal funds rate at 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent since the beginning of the year. We have also continued to reduce our holdings of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities and, beginning in April, further slowed the pace of this decline to facilitate a smooth transition to ample reserve balances. We will continue to determine the appropriate stance of monetary policy based on the incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.

Policy changes continue to evolve, and their effects on the economy remain uncertain. The effects of tariffs will depend, among other things, on their ultimate level. Expectations of that level, and thus of the related economic effects, reached a peak in April and have since declined. Even so, increases in tariffs this year are likely to push up prices and weigh on economic activity.

The effects on inflation could be short lived—reflecting a one-time shift in the price level. It is also possible that the inflationary effects could instead be more persistent. Avoiding that outcome will depend on the size of the tariff effects, on how long it takes for them to pass through fully into prices, and, ultimately, on keeping longer-term inflation expectations well anchored.

The FOMC’s obligation is to keep longer-term inflation expectations well anchored and to prevent a one-time increase in the price level from becoming an ongoing inflation problem. As we act to meet that obligation, we will balance our maximum-employment and price-stability mandates, keeping in mind that, without price stability, we cannot achieve the long periods of strong labor market conditions that benefit all Americans.

For the time being, we are well positioned to wait to learn more about the likely course of the economy before considering any adjustments to our policy stance.

To conclude, we understand that our actions affect communities, families, and businesses across the country. Everything we do is in service to our public mission. We at the Fed will do everything we can to achieve our maximum-employment and price-stability goals.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 06/24/2025 – 08:42

Futures Jump, Oil And Dollar Dump As Markets Ignore Ceasefire Violations

Futures Jump, Oil And Dollar Dump As Markets Ignore Ceasefire Violations

US equity futures jumped, rapidly approaching all time highs, while oil and the dollar tumbled on hopes the worst is over in the middle east, even as traders parse rapidly-changing headlines on Iran where the fragile ceasefire with Iran announced by President Donald Trump was promptly violated by both sides, sparking several angry outbursts by Trump this morning, starting with this one…

  • ISRAEL. DO NOT DROP THOSE BOMBS. IF YOU DO IT IS A MAJOR VIOLATION. BRING YOUR PILOTS HOME, NOW!  DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES

… followed by this:

  • ISRAEL is not going to attack Iran. All planes will turn around and head home, while doing a friendly “Plane Wave” to Iran. Nobody will be hurt, the Ceasefire is in effect! Thank you for your attention to this matter! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES

… and Trump even dropped the F-bomb in frustration. 

In any case, for now markets are giving the lack of a ceasefire the benefit of the doubt – after all Trump probably already printed hats commemorating the end of the “12 Day War“, and as of 8:00am, S&P futures rose 0.8%, signaling a second day of gains, while Nasdaq 100 futures surged 1%, with all Mag7 stocks higher premarket led again by TSLA with semis and cyclicals ex-energy also higher. European stocks and Asian stocks also advanced. has plunged 15% from Monday’s intraday high, sliding an additional 5.6% on Tuesday as it fell below the level of June 12, the day before Israel began attacking Iran’s nuclear sites. The benchmark later pared some losses to trade above $69 a barrel after Israel reported a missile launch from Iran and instructed its military to respond; but for the most part oil has completely shrugged off reports that the ceasefire is obviously being violated.  The dollar headed for its biggest drop since the outbreak of the conflict. The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed, as investors’ awaited the first day of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony before lawmakers on Tuesday (at 10am ET) which is adding fuel to the rally. The yield curve is twisting steeper as USD decline continues. Cmdtys are lower, dragged by Energy, but precious metals are under pressure. Today’s macro data focus is on housing prices, Consumer Confidence, and regional Fed activity indicators. Barring another escalation in the Middle East, focus will shift back to the Fed, with six speakers today including Powell.

In premarket trading,Mag7 stocks are all higher alongside index futures (Tesla +2.2%, Amazon +1.5%, Alphabet +1.2%, Apple +1.2%, Nvidia +0.9%, Meta +0.7%, Microsoft +0.6%). Tesla (TSLA) is outperforming fellow Magnificent 7 stocks in premarket trading on Tuesday, rising 2.2%, after launching its much-anticipated driverless taxi service to a handful of riders. Here are the other notable premarket movers: 

  • Airline stocks around the world surged after President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, spurring optimism over a potential easing of airspace disruptions in the Middle East.
  • Circle Internet Group Inc. shares (CRCL) fell 1.9% in premarket trading after the stablecoin issuer was initiated at Compass Point Research & Trading with a recommendation of neutral as competition is expected to increase after US stablecoin legislation was passed.
  • CommScope shares (COMM) are up 2.2% in premarket trading, after Deutsche Bank added the communications equipment company to its catalyst call buy list.
  • Crypto-linked stocks are rising on Tuesday with Bitcoin gaining as much as 2.2% amid broader market gains after Israel and Iran reached a ceasefire.
  • Energy stocks fall and airlines rise after a ceasefire announcement by President Donald Trump pointed to a potential reduction of tensions in the Middle East. Iran has yet to confirm publicly that it agreed to the ceasefire.
  • Lyft shares (LYFT) rise as much as 5.4% in premarket trading on Tuesday as TD Cowen raised to buy from hold citing multiple growth levers.
  • Mastercard (MA +2.7%) deepens its partnership with Fiserv (FI +4.4%) to integrate its new FIUSD token across a range of Mastercard products and services, expanding stablecoin adoption and utility for their shared customers around the world.
  • NextDecade Corp. (NEXT) gains 4.6% premarket after TD Cowen analyst Jason Gabelman raised the recommendation to buy from hold, citing the expectation of final investment decisions in favor of two new liquefaction trains at the Rio Grande liqufied natural gas project in Texas.
  • Teladoc Health shares (TDOC) rise 5.2% in premarket trading on Tuesday, putting stock on track to extend gains after Citron Research said the market is underestimating the value of the virtual health-care platform.
  • Uber Technologies Inc. (UBER) rose 3.5% on Tuesday as it’s set to begin offering its customers driverless Waymo rides in Atlanta, making it the second market, after Austin, where the two companies are teaming up instead of competing against each other.

In corporate news, Alphabet’s Google is set to face more scrutiny from the UK’s antitrust watchdog over its online search and advertising business. Starbucks said it’s not currently considering a full sale of its China business, disputing a report from Caixin Global that had sent the shares higher in late trading on Monday.

The rapid-fire sequence of events followed a turbulent stretch in financial markets, which have been roiled for nearly two weeks by fears of an escalating conflict. Volatility was particularly high in oil, as concerns over supply and shipping disruptions had pushed Brent crude to nearly $80 a barrel. However, the subsequent collapse in the price of Brent below $70 helped the narrative on inflation risk and, together with equity positioning that suggests investors are still on the sidelines, could create upside potential. Barring another escalation in the Middle East, focus will shift back to the Fed, with six speakers today including Powell.

“If the ceasefire holds – and there is no guarantee that it will – it will undoubtedly be greeted positively by markets as it will at the margin reduce uncertainty,” said Daniel Murray, chief executive officer of EFG Asset Management in Switzerland. Lower oil prices will reduce inflationary pressure and “also help support consumption trends and hence growth overall.”

The greenback slipped 0.4% against a basket of currencies as demand to hedge against higher oil prices receded.

“The US dollar was one of the key beneficiaries of the hostilities so it is now rolling over,” said Sean Callow, a senior analyst at InTouch Capital Markets. “Investors have been very keen to draw a line under the Israel-Iran conflict, choosing to leave aside any concerns over the path Iran might choose beyond the very short term.”

Elsewhere, Powell is due to testify before two committees in Washington this week amid ongoing pressure from Trump who said interest rates should be “at least two to three points lower.” Further geopolitical headlines might come from a two day NATO summit starting today in the Netherlands.

“We’re going to go back to the bigger picture, and that is to talk about tariffs and growth,” Mislav Matejka, head of global equity strategy at JPMorgan Chase & Co., told Bloomberg TV. “To believe that tariffs are fully digested and that inflation pickup will not happen whatsoever, i think that is premature.”

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 rose  1.4%, lifted by airline shares, as President Donald Trump said a ceasefire was in place between Iran and Israel, easing worries about a prolonged conflict. Energy and utility sectors are the only two in the red. Here are some of the biggest movers on Tuesday:

  • Energy stocks fall in European trading while airlines rise after US President Donald Trump said a ceasefire is now in place between Iran and Israel.
  • AstraZeneca shares rise as much as 1.8% after the drugmaker’s Datroway medicine received US approval for the treatment of some patients with lung cancer.
  • Melexis shares rise as much as 7.9% after it was upgraded to overweight at Morgan Stanley as a likely beneficiary of a cyclical recovery in autos, and named as top pick in European semiconductor small caps.
  • DKSH gains as much as 4.9% after the Swiss distribution company receives a new buy rating from Berenberg, which hails its market-leading position in the Asia-Pacific region.
  • Lindt shares fall as much as 4.4% after BofA downgraded the chocolate maker to neutral from buy, saying that a strong 1H is already priced in and the valuation is looking stretched.
  • OVH Groupe slumps as much as 17% after the cloud computing company releases its third-quarter results. Analysts note high expectations heading into the print following strong share-price advance year-to-date.
  • Shares of precious metals miners drop as gold falls on ebbing haven demand after US President Donald Trump announced that Israel and Iran had agreed to a ceasefire.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index dropped 0.5% to a one-week low. The kiwi dollar is leading gains against the greenback, rising 1%.

In rates, treasuries mixed with the yield curve steeper in early US session. US front-end yields are more than 3bp lower on the day with long-end tenors little changed, leaving 2s10s and 5s30s spreads wider by 2bp-3bp, extending Monday’s move. 5s30s spread topped at 99.98bp, approaching year’s high 100.9bp, reached May 22. the 10-year is flat at 4.35%, outperforming bunds and gilts in the sector by 5bp and 1.5bp. European bond markets are broadly weaker on the day led by Germany, which announced plans to borrow about a fifth more than planned in the third quarter, spurring long-end-led selloff.  Longer-dated bonds lead declines with German 30-year yields rising 10 bps to 3.06%. US 30-year borrowing costs also rise 2 bps to 4.90%. US shorter-dated yields fall. The Treasury auction cycle starts with $69 billion 2-year note sale at 1pm New York time and includes $70 billion 5-year Wednesday and $44 billion 7-year Thursday. WI 2-year yield near 3.82% is ~13.5bp richer thank last month’s, which stopped through by 1bp

In commodities, Brent crude futures fall over 3% to $69 a barrel after US President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran had gone into effect. Oil prices pared losses briefly after Israel has accused Iran of breaching the ceasefire, while Tehran denied firing missiles at Israel after truce. Spot gold falls $49 to around $3,319/oz, and together with oil, was back below levels before the Israeli strike on Iran. Bitcoin rises 1.6% and above $105,000.

The US economic data slate includes June Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing activity and 1Q current account balance (8:30am), April FHFA house price index and S&P CoreLogic home prices (9am), June Richmond Fed business conditions and consumer confidence (10am). Fed speakers include Hammack (9:15am), Powell (10am), Williams (12:30pm), Kashkari (1:45pm), Collins (2pm), Barr (4pm) and Schmid (8:15pm)

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 mini +0.8%
  • Nasdaq 100 mini +1.1%
  • Russell 2000 mini +1.1%
  • Stoxx Europe 600 +1.4%
  • DAX +2.2%
  • CAC 40 +1.4%
  • 10-year Treasury yield +1 basis point at 4.36%
  • VIX -1.7 points at 18.16
  • Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.5% at 1202.68
  • euro +0.3% at $1.1608
  • WTI crude -3.3% at $66.27/barrel

Top overnight news

  • US equity futures bid higher after Trump declared a ceasefire between Iran and Israel. Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed the truce, saying Israel had achieved its war goals. But within hours, the country accused Tehran of launching more missiles, a charge that Iran denied. BBG
  • Trump said interest rates should be “at least two to three points lower” ahead of Jerome Powell’s testimony before a House committee. The Fed chair is expected to defend holding rates until at least September. He appears before the Senate tomorrow. BBG
  • Germany will borrow about a fifth more than planned in the coming months to fund a surge in spending, while a deal to secure a €46 billion ($53 billion) package of tax breaks highlighted how debt needs are set to grow. BBG
  • China’s advantages in developing artificial intelligence are about to unleash a wave of innovation that will generate more than 100 DeepSeek-like breakthroughs in the coming 18 months, according to a former top official. The new software products “will fundamentally change the nature and the tech nature of the whole Chinese economy,” Zhu Min, who was previously a deputy governor of the People’s Bank of China, said during the World Economic Forum in Tianjin on Tuesday. BBG
  • The custodians of trillions of dollars of global central bank reserves are eyeing a move away from the greenback into gold, the euro and China’s yuan as the splintering of world trade and geopolitical upheaval spark a rethink of financial flows. RTRS
  • “Big Banks are worried [US] President Trump could turn the power of the federal government against them with an executive order on “debanking.””, via WSJ
  • The PBOC set the strongest yuan fixing since November as the dollar fell. BBG
  • JGB futures slid after a weaker-than-expected 20-year debt auction, Japan’s first since trimming its bond sales plans last week. BBG
  • Europe signals it could soften digital rules aimed at American tech giants for the first time as it seeks relief from Trump’s impending trade tariffs. Politico
  • ECB’s Villeroy says the central bank can still cut rates despite recent geopolitical-driven volatility in oil markets. FT
  • Fed’s Bostic sees economic growth slowing to 1.1% this year, inflation rising to 2.9%; no need to cut rates now, sees single 25bps reduction late this year.
  • House GOP leaders were still unsure whether they would cancel the July 4 recess to pass the mega bill, depending on whether the Senate could clear the bill by the weekend as planned. The decision depended on what changes the Senate made and whether the House would need to alter the bill: Politico
  • US Senate Majority Leader Thune said House will ultimately accept what the Senate passes, according to three senators in the room: Punchbowl.
  • US President Trump posted “Members of Congress are united in their commitment to deliver the One Big Beautiful Bill “
  • NHTSA seeks information from Tesla (TSLA) after Robotaxi debut, with regards to issues seen in online videos. Tesla (TSLA) is sued by the estates of three people killed in a September 2024 crash in Model S with autopilot, according to a court filing: BBG
  • Starbucks (SBUX), when asked to comment on media report, says it is not currently considering a full sale of its China operation. Earlier, it was reported Starbucks (SBUX) is reportedly mulling full sale of China business, according to Caixin.

Iran/Israel

  • US President Trump announced that Israel and Iran agreed to a complete and total ceasefire, from 05:00BST/00:00ET, which would last for 12 hours. After which, the war would be considered officially ended.
  • Under the ceasefire announced by Trump, Iran would stop striking Israel in six hours (at midnight ET on Tuesday), and Israel is expected to stop striking Iran 12 hours after that (at noon ET Tuesday). Then, after another 12 hours, or at midnight ET Wednesday, the war will be considered over, a White House official confirmed to CBS News.
  • Strikes continued into and after the Iranian proposed time of 01:30BST/20:30ET. After the Trump deadline of 05:00BST/00:00ET, Iran is said to have fired some missiles at Israel, though they claim it was fired just before the deadline.
  • At 06:04BST/01:04ET Trump posted that the “ceasefire is now in effect”.
  • At 07:17BST/02:17ET Israeli PM Netanyahu confirmed the ceasefire is now in effect, war achieved its goals, will respond forcefully to any violations. PM’s office adds that Netanyahu will deliver a statement later today.
  • The ceasefire agreement seems to have broken down only 4 hours after being in effect, with the IDF suggesting it had detected and intercepted fresh ballistic missiles from Iran. In response to this latest attack, the IDF Minister instructed the military to respond “forcefully” to Iran’s violation of the ceasefire. Iran has denied firing missiles at Israel after the ceasefire.

Trade/Tariffs

  • Japanese Economy Minister Akazawa is reportedly arranging to visit the US as early as June 26th for tariff talks, according to Yomiuri.
  • The EU said it would not give up decision‑making power for a US trade deal, according to the WSJ citing European Commission President von der Leyen.
  • US and South Korean trade ministers reaffirmed commitment to reaching a tariff deal early, according to the South Korean ministry.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded firmer across the board with the region coat-tailing gains from Wall Street, which initially stemmed from Iran’s “symbolic” strike on a US base in Qatar—de-escalatory in nature given the clear effort to minimise casualties and collateral damage. Sentiment was further boosted at the resumption of futures trading after US President Trump announced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, although the Iranian Foreign Minister later clarified that there was no “agreement”, but Iran would stop attacking if Israel also halts. ASX 200 was bolstered by most sectors, although energy producers and gold miners bore the brunt of the slide in oil and gold. Nikkei 225 gains and tested the 39k mark to the upside amid broader market optimism, although gains were somewhat capped by gradual JPY strength. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the broader tone across the market amid optimism surrounding the Israel-Iran ceasefire alongside the step-down in tensions with the US.

Top Asian News

  • Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi said Japan would hold its Upper House election on July 20th, according to Reuters.
  • Japan’s finance ministry said top foreign exchange diplomat Atsushi Mimura would be reappointed for his second year, as he remained involved in US trade talks, according to Reuters.
  • PBoC injected 406.5bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate maintained at 1.40%.
  • PBoC issues guidelines on financial support to boost consumption; to increase credit support for services consumption and key areas To increase support for the real economy. Support employment, boost income. Improve financial institutions capabilities, expand supply in consumer sector. Maintain ample liquidity. Strengthen financial services to help optimise consumption environment. Encourage issuance of consumption ETF. Support eligible enterprises in consumption industry chain to raise funds through listing. Support qualified consumer infrastructure companies in issuing REITs in the sector. To increase investment in key areas of services consumption.

European bourses (STOXX 600 +1.2%) opened entirely in the green and still trade at elevated levels, albeit have cooled a touch off peaks. Sentiment today has been boosted by US President Trump’s “complete and total ceasefire” announcement between Iran and Israel. Though this seems to have broken down only 4 hours after being in effect, with the IDF suggesting it had detected and intercepted fresh ballistic missiles from Iran. In response to this latest attack, the IDF Minister instructed the military to respond “forcefully” to Iran’s violation of the ceasefire. Iran has denied firing missiles at Israel after the ceasefire. Complex continues to remain buoyed. European sectors hold a strong positive bias, in-fitting with the positive risk-tone seen across markets. It comes as no surprise that Energy sits right at the foot of the pile, due to the latest slump in oil prices, following the latest ceasefire agreement. Travel & Leisure takes the top spot, lifted by lower oil prices and with airliners generally buoyed by the broader sentiment.

Top European News

  • ECB’s Villeroy said the ECB could still proceed with rate cuts despite volatility in oil markets, according to the FT. He noted that inflation expectations remained moderate.
  • BoE’s Greene says underlying activity is weak, the labour market has loosened further and the disinflationary process is continuing. Worries about both demand and supply sides of the economy. Continue to think risks remain two sided but skewed to the downside on growth and to the upside on inflation. Given the period of elevated inflation through which we have just come, I think price stability is the key priority. A careful and gradual approach to removing monetary policy restrictiveness continues to be warranted. On the domestic front, noisy data means that it will take longer for me to take comfort from recent disinflationary trends. On the global front, there are a number of key events playing out between now and our next meeting, including the deadline for the pause on so-called “reciprocal tariffs” from the US, the potential passage of a budget in the US and the unfolding of events in the Middle East. It’s unlikely that the uncertainty from these events – and subsequent developments – will be resolved any time soon (in reference to global points of uncertainty, i.e. tariffs, geopols). Still expect trade policy to have a net disinflationary impact on the UK, but it may be muted relative to my expectations in May, when it was a factor in my decision to cut Bank Rate. The risk that our near-term plateau in inflation feeds through into second round effects is skewed to the upside.
  • UK Grocery Inflation 4.7% in the four weeks to June 15th (prev. 4.1% in May), via Kantar; “Grocery footfall hit a five-year high”, grocery volumes -0.4% Y/Y, the first such decline in 2025.
  • German Finance Ministry says it is to issue EUR 19bln more than initially planned in Q3; includes EUR 15bln increase in borrowing on the capital market and EUR 4bln increase on the money market.
  • German Finance Agency says will “probably” continue upward adjustments to bond issuance in Q4. Very good demand for long term bonds. 50yr Bond not planned for this year but internal conditions have been created.

FX

  • DXY is lower as the safe-haven premium continues to unwind for the USD. This comes after US President Trump declared a ceasefire between Iran and Israel; which was subsequently later acknowledged by Israel. However, Israel has since stated that Iran has breached the ceasefire. Accordingly, DXY has bounced from a 97.96 low and made its way back onto a 98.0 handle. Focus will be on Fed Chair Powell at 15:00 BST / 10:00 EDT alongside US Consumer Confidence.
  • EUR is firmer vs. the USD but to a lesser extent than peers. EUR/USD rose to a session peak at 1.1622, benefiting from the Iran-Israel ceasefire, but the move for the Single-Currency ran out of steam around the same time that Israel claimed that Iran had violated the ceasefire. In terms of domestic drivers, German IFO data saw a larger-than-expected increase for the Business climate metric. A slew of ECB speakers are due throughout the day. If upside in EUR/USD resumes, the YTD high from June 12th sits at 1.1631.
  • JPY is towards the top of the G10 leaderboard despite the unwind in the safe-haven premium seen elsewhere. JPY is instead benefitting from the pullback in oil prices, given that it is a net importer. Furthermore, Japanese Economy Minister Akazawa is reportedly arranging to visit the US as early as June 26th for tariff talks, according to Yomiuri. USD/JPY has pulled back markedly from Monday’s 148.03 peak and briefly slipped onto a 144 handle with a current session low at 144.95.
  • GBP is firmer vs. the USD and EUR as it benefits from the bump in risk sentiment. Fresh UK-specific macro drivers are lacking for today’s session. However, that could change given the busy BoE speaker slate which includes MPC members Bailey, Greene, Ramsden, Pill and Breeden. Markets will be looking for any clues over the MPC’s future easing intentions given the three dovish dissenters at last week’s meeting, as well as a recent run of soft data points, including last week’s retail sales release.
  • Antipodeans are both are near the top of the G10 leaderboard on account of the positive risk-tone. Fresh macro drivers for both have been on the light side. However, traders are mindful of Australian monthly CPI metrics overnight, which are expected to see the Weighted Y/Y CPI metric decline to 2.3% from 2.4%.
  • CAD firmer vs. the USD but to a lesser extent than peers as the declines in oil prices caps gains for the currency. Attention today will be on domestic inflation data with Y/Y CPI for May set to hold steady at 1.7%, M/M is expected to rise to 0.5% from -0.1%. Note, at its most recent meeting (where it left rates unchanged), the Bank stated that further rate cuts may be warranted if tariff-related uncertainty spreads but inflationary cost pressures remain contained.
  • PBoC sets USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1656 vs exp. 7.1605 (prev. 7.1710); strongest CNY fix since Nov 8th 2024
  • Brazil’s central bank announced a spot dollar auction for 25 June, offering up to USD 1bln. It also announced a reverse FX swap auction on the same date, offering up to 20k contracts, according to a statement.

Fixed Income

  • USTs are lower by a handful ticks in what has been a choppy European morning so far. Overnight, benchmarks lost their haven allure given Trump’s Iran-Israel ceasefire agreement. Though this was short-lived, as Israel claimed Iran had broken the agreement by launching two missiles into the area – This sparked a modest bid in the USTs, taking it to 111-14. Pressure has since resumed more recently in tandem with Bunds, after the latest updates from the German Finance Agency (details below); USTs are currently trading just of lows at around 111-09+. For the US specifically, traders will eye US Consumer Confidence, 2yr supply and a slew of Fed speakers (incl. Fed Chair Powell).
  • Bunds tracked peers overnight and into the morning, on the aforementioned geopolitical updates. For the region itself, the German Finance Ministry said it is to issue EUR 19bln more than initially planned in Q3. Thereafter, the agency said it will “probably” continue upward adjustments to bond issuance in Q4; commentary which saw German paper slip to a fresh trough of 130.35. On the data front, German Ifo printed firmer than the prior across the board. German auction was okay, with decent demand but with a higher avg. yield – ultimately unable to stop the continued pressure in Bunds, which is now down to a 130.35 low. Ahead, a slew of ECB speakers.
  • Gilts are softer and trading marginally heavier than peers, potentially as a function of confirmation that the UK will pledge to increase defence spending to 3.5% (prev. 2.3%) by 2035. In slight contrast to Bunds and USTs, Gilts have exactly matched Monday’s 92.25-93.21 confines, but are yet to breach them. A couple BoE speakers have already appeared today (and a few more still yet to come); BoE’s Greene said underlying activity is weak and the labour market has loosened further and the disinflationary process is continuing.
  • Germany sells EUR 3.066bln vs exp. EUR 4bln 1.70% 2027 Schatz: b/c 2.9x (prev 2.9x), average yield 1.85% (prev 1.78%), retention 23.35% (prev 18.27%)
  • UK sells GBP 1.7bln 1.125% 2035 I/L Gilt: b/c 3.02x (prev. 3.36x) & real yield 1.386% (prev. 1.268%)

Commodities

  • Crude drilled lower overnight after the announcement of an Israel-Iran ceasefire which came into effect at 05:00 BST. Benchmarks now trade lower by around -3.5%, with recent two-way action seen on reports of ceasefire violations. In an update which lifted benchmarks this morning, the IDF said that it had detected missiles launched from Iran, which the nation said it had intercepted. Far-Right Israeli Finance Minister, Smotrich said the ceasefire was violated, and that Tehran will tremble in response. More recently, downticks were seen across the complex after Iran denied firing missiles towards Israel, we now look for further clarity. Brent Aug’25 currently trades around USD 69.30/bbl.
  • Spot gold is firmly in the red, towards session lows and suffering from the positive mood after the US announced an Israel-Iran ceasefire.
  • Base metals are trading firmer given the positive risk environment, alongside the softer USD.
  • Kazakhstan’s Tengiz oil output seen at 35.7mln T in 2025, according to KazMunayGas.

Geopolitics: 

Iran’s attack on US base in Qatar

  • Iran’s Foreign Minister said Tehran’s attack on a US air base in Qatar was in response to US aggression against Iran’s territorial integrity and sovereignty, adding that Iran would be ready to respond again if the US took further action, according to Reuters.
  • US President Trump posted “CONGRATULATIONS WORLD, IT’S TIME FOR PEACE!”
  • Saudi Arabia stated that Iranian aggression against Qatar was unacceptable, could not be justified, and constituted a flagrant violation of international law, according to Al Arabiya.
  • US Vice President Vance said Iran is now incapable of building a nuclear weapon with the equipment they have because the US destroyed it, according to a Fox News interview.

Israel-Iran Ceasefire

  • US President Trump announced that Israel and Iran have agreed to a complete and total ceasefire, to begin at 00:00 EDT/05:00 BST, and lasting 12 hours. Trump stated that the war would be considered officially ended following this sequence. He praised both nations for ending what he termed “THE 12 DAY WAR.”
  • Under the ceasefire announced by Trump, Iran would stop striking Israel in six hours (at midnight ET on Tuesday), and Israel is expected to stop striking Iran 12 hours after that (at noon ET Tuesday). Then, after another 12 hours, or at midnight ET Wednesday, the war will be considered over, a White House official confirmed to CBS News.
  • US President Trump called the ceasefire between Iran and Israel — which he announced — a wonderful day for the world, according to NBC News. He said he believes the ceasefire is unlimited and is going to go “forever.”
  • US President Trump and Vice President Vance discussed the Israel-Iran ceasefire proposal with Qatar’s emir after Iranian attacks on the airbase in Qatar on Monday, according to an official cited by Reuters. Qatar’s prime minister secured Iran’s agreement to the US ceasefire proposal in a call.
  • Israel’s Channel 12 reported that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu agreed to a ceasefire with Iran during talks with US President Trump, on the condition that Iran stopped its attacks.
  • Israeli PM Netanyahu announced an agreement with Iran, noting that a comprehensive ceasefire agreement had been reached, according to Al Arabiya.
  • Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi said there was no “agreement” on any ceasefire or cessation of military operations between Israel and Iran. He stated that Iran had consistently made clear it was Israel that launched the war, not Iran. However, if Israel halted its “illegal aggression” against the Iranian people by 4 a.m. Tehran time, Iran had no intention to continue its response. He added that the final decision on halting Iran’s military operations would be made later.
  • Israel attacked a “substantial percentage” of the targets approved as part of Operation Am Kalvi, according to i24 journalist Stein. An Israeli source told him: “We will complete the attacks on all the approved targets within a few days.” The source warned: “If we need to, we have a very large pool of targets. There are still many places to attack in Iran.”
  • Iranian officials made clear to the Trump administration that they would come back to the negotiating table and discuss their nuclear program on the condition that Israel stops bombing them, according to a senior US official via NYT.
  • Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei posted on X that “the Iranian nation isn’t a nation that surrenders.”
  • US President Trump posted that Israel and Iran came to him “almost simultaneously” and said “PEACE!”, declaring that he knew the time was now. He said the world and the Middle East were the real winners. Trump added that both nations had much to gain and much to lose if they strayed from the road of righteousness and truth. He said the future for Israel and Iran was unlimited and filled with great promise.

Strikes since ceasefire announcement

  • Israeli strikes were continuous as markets headed into Iran’s proposed ceasefire time (01:30 BST) vs Trump’s guided time (05:00 BST). Iranian media reported that tonight marked the most intense defensive operation since the beginning of Israel’s attacks on Tehran, according to Iran International.
  • Iranian strikes continued after 01:30 BST, with several missiles fired towards Israel. Some reports noted an Iranian ballistic missile hitting an Israeli residential building, with three killed.
  • An Iraqi military official said an unknown drone targeted the Taji military base north of Baghdad, with no casualties reported, according to the state news agency. Al Hadath reported a drone attack on US bases in Iraq, stating that four Iraqi military bases housing US forces were targeted, and added that there were no human casualties resulting from the attacks on the Iraqi military bases.
  • The Israeli military said a fifth wave of missiles had been launched from Iran towards Israel.
  • There were reports of the Israeli assassination in Tehran of Iranian nuclear scientist Mohammad Reza Sediqi.
  • “Drone strike on radar of air base in southern Iraq”, according to Sky News Arabia.

After the ceasefire came into effect

  • “Iran fires missiles towards Israel, violating ceasefire announced by Trump”, according to BNO Newsroom; ” Israeli army: We are monitoring a sixth Iranian attack on Israel”, according to Al Jazeera.
  • Iran fired the last round of missiles towards Israel before the ceasefire came into effect, according to Iran’s SNN.
  • US President Trump posts, at 06:09BST/01:09ET, “THE CEASEFIRE IS NOW IN EFFECT. PLEASE DO NOT VIOLATE IT!”
  • At 07:17BST/02:17ET Israeli PM Netanyahu confirmed the ceasefire is now in effect, war achieved its goals, will respond forcefully to any violations. PM’s office adds that Netanyahu will deliver a statement later today.

Israel claims Iran has violated the ceasefire agreement

  • Times of Israel journalist posts on X “The IDF says it has detected a new launch of ballistic missiles from Iran. Sirens are expected to sound in northern Israel in the coming minutes”.
  • Israel Finance Minster Smotrich says the ceasefire was violated, one launch was identified from Iran – “Tehran will tremble”, via N12 News.
  • “Two Iranian missiles were launched at northern Israel and intercepted according to an initial assessment”, via Horowitz on X.
  • Israel Defence Minister says he instructed the military to respond “forcefully” to Iran’s violation of the ceasefire with high-intensity strikes against targets in the heart of Tehran.
  • “Iran denies firing missiles at Israel after ceasefire – state media”, via Soylu on X.
  • Iran Top Security Body says “Iran’s armed forces have no trust in the words of its enemies and will keep finger on trigger to respond to any further act of aggression”, via Fars News.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30 am: 1Q Current Account Balance, est. -445.5b, prior -303.94b
  • 9:00 am: Apr FHFA House Price Index MoM, est. 0%, prior -0.1%
  • 9:00 am: Apr S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA, est. 3.94%, prior 4.07%
  • 10:00 am: Jun Richmond Fed Manufact. Index, est. -10, prior -9
  • 10:00 am: Jun Conf. Board Consumer Confidence, est. 99.8, prior 98

Central Banks (All Times ET):

  • 9:15 am: Fed’s Hammack Speaks on Monetary Policy
  • 10:00 am: Fed’s Powell to Deliver Semiannual Policy Testimony
  • 12:30 pm: Fed’s Williams Gives Keynote Remarks
  • 1:45 pm: Fed’s Kashkari Participates in Town Hall Event
  • 2:00 pm: Fed’s Collins Speaks on State of Nation’s Housing
  • 4:00 pm: Fed’s Barr Gives Welcoming Remarks
  • 8:15 pm: Fed’s Schmid Speaks on the Economic Outlook

DB’s Jim Ried concludes the overnight wrap

Despite all the fears over the weekend, over the last 12 hours we’ve seen a pretty remarkable de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East. The best scorecard of this has been the price of oil which now trades just below $70/bbl, having opened at just over $80/bbl early yesterday morning in Asia. Brent crude (-7.18%) posted its biggest daily decline since 2022 and is subsequently trading another -2.56% lower this morning at $69.65/bbl, close to the levels before Israel’s strikes against Iran on June 13. Easing geopolitical concerns helped the S&P 500 rebound +0.96%, with futures another +0.55% higher overnight. Easing inflation fears supported bonds, with Treasuries also benefitting from more dovish Fedspeak, more on which later.

To recap developments, shortly after yesterday’s European market close, Iran launched missiles at a US air base in Qatar, but with the attack being well telegraphed and Qatar suspending air traffic shortly before. Markets soon rallied as it became apparent that Iran’s retaliation did not involve energy targets and was likely seeking to avoid any escalatory spiral with US, with reporting that Iran had warned Qatar ahead of the strikes. Later in the US afternoon, Trump posted that there were no casualties from Iran’s “very weak response” while also thanking Iran for “giving us early notice” of the strikes. This was followed by a surprise post by Trump at around 11pm London time last night claiming that Iran and Israel have agreed to a “Complete and Total CEASEFIRE (in approximately 6 hours from now, when Israel and Iran have wound down and completed their in progress, final missions!), for 12 hours, at which point the War will be considered, ENDED! Officially, Iran will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 12th Hour, Israel will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 24th Hour, an Official END to THE 12 DAY WAR will be saluted by the World.”

As I write this around 6 hours after the post above, we are yet to hear formal confirmation on the ceasefire from Israel or Iran, with US media reporting that the ceasefire was brokered by Trump in direct conversation with Netanyahu”. Iran’s foreign minister posted that Iran has “no intention to continue our response” if Israel stops its aggression but that “as of now, there is NO ‘agreement’ on any ceasefire or cessation of military operations”. So there are still outstanding questions, from whether a ceasefire will hold given that mutual strikes had continued overnight, to the future of what remains of Iran’s nuclear programme. But as things stand, the past 12 days look set to join the long list of geopolitical shocks that proved temporarily disruptive but had little lasting effect on markets.

Prior to those Middle East developments, the main new story of the day had been on the Fed, as rate cut speculation got further support after comments from Michelle Bowman, the Fed’s Vice Chair for Supervision. She commented how inflation had come in at or beneath expectations recently, and said “we should recognize that inflation appears to be on a sustained path toward 2 percent and that there will likely be only minimal impacts on overall core PCE inflation from changes to trade policy.” As such, she said that she’d support a rate cut as soon as the next meeting in late July, if “inflation pressures remain contained”. Those remarks meant futures dialled up the likelihood of a July rate cut, rising from 17% before the weekend to 23% by the close, while pricing of rate cut by September rose to 96%, its highest since mid-May. So that really heightens the importance of the next CPI report, as a 5th downside surprise in a row would really keep up the momentum for a rate cut. There has been talk about potential candidates for the Fed Chair role becoming more vocal around dovish thoughts if they believe in them given the President’s very public view on what the Fed should do so this may be something to bear in mind in the weeks and months ahead. Powell’s term ends in May 2026 but a replacement could be named very soon. Staying with all things Fed and rates related, today, we’ll see Fed Chair Powell appearing before the House Financial Services Committee, so it’ll be interesting to hear his thoughts too but this time the gap between this and last week’s FOMC isn’t large so new information may not be forthcoming.

With oil prices falling and markets pricing in more rate cuts, this proved good news for US Treasuries, with the 2yr yield down -4.5bps to 3.86% and the 10yr down -2.9bps to 4.35% and another -1.5bps lower overnight. That’s their lowest levels since May 7, before US and China announced a pause in the retaliatory tariffs. Rising rate cut expectations and easing geopolitical risks also drove a big turn around for the dollar, which had climbed by as much as three-quarters of a percent by European lunchtime, but ended the day -0.29% lower.

Another boost to markets yesterday came from the flash PMIs for June. They were broadly in line with expectations, but that cemented the narrative that the global economy was still holding up after Liberation Day, with no obvious signs of a deterioration, even with the 10% baseline tariffs that have been in place. That was echoed across the major economies, with the US composite PMI beating expectations at 52.8 (vs. 52.2 expected), whilst the Euro Area composite PMI held steady at 50.2 (vs. 50.4 expected). So both were still in expansionary territory, although France was an underperformer as its composite PMI fell back to 48.5 (vs. 49.3 expected), remaining in contractionary territory for a 10th consecutive month.

That backdrop proved supportive for US equities, though the impact of the data was dominated by volatility around the Middle East headlines. The S&P 500 had opened with a solid gain, reversed this as reports of imminent Iranian retaliation emerged, but then rallied to close around the day’s highs (+0.96%) to end a run of 3 consecutive declines. Tesla (+8.23%) was the strongest performer in the entire S&P after they launched their robotaxis over the weekend, which in turn helped the Magnificent 7 rise +1.58%. But the advance was pretty broad, with solid gains for the NASDAQ (+0.94%) and the small-cap Russell 2000 (+1.11%).

Over in Europe, markets didn’t perform quite as well. In large part that was as markets closed before the more sanguine news out of the Middle East and the big decline in oil played out, but also as European markets didn’t get as much of a benefit from the rate cut speculation centered on the Fed. So by the close, the STOXX 600 was down -0.28%, along with the DAX (-0.35%) and the CAC 40 (-0.69%). Moreover, the bond rally was also more subdued, with yields on 10yr bunds (-1.0bps), OATs (-1.4bps) and BTPs (-1.5bps) seeing smaller moves than Treasuries.

In Asia the mood is upbeat with the KOSPI (+2.78%) leading the gains led by a jump in index heavyweight Samsung Electronics. Elsewhere the Hang Seng (+1.93%), the CSI (+1.09%), the Shanghai Composite (+1.01%), the Nikkei (+1.07%) and the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.99%) are all experiencing major gains in early trade. S&P 500 (+0.55%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.78%) futures are also higher.

Meanwhile, demand for Japan’s 20-year bond auction was marginally below the average of the past year, despite the government’s adjustments to its borrowing strategy. The bid-to-cover ratio came in at 3.11, stronger than from the last two auctions, but with many expecting a more positive outcome. The sale comes after the Finance Ministry yesterday approved a plan to reduce the volume of 20-, 30- and 40-year bonds sold in regular auctions by a total of ¥3.2 trillion ($22 billion) until the end of March 2026.

In response to the reduction in long-term funding, the ministry plans to enhance the issuance of shorter-term securities, which will include 2-year notes and six-month Treasury bills. These changes will be evident starting from the auctions next month.

To the day ahead now, and aside from Fed Chair Powell’s appearance before the House Financial Services Committee mentioned above, there will be attention on the annual NATO summit being held in the Hague today and tomorrow. This is expected to confirm a 5% of GDP spending target, including 3.5% on core defence spending, up from 2% before. Our European economists have previewed the summit and its fiscal implications here. Today Germany is also set to unveil its spending plan, with reporting yesterday that this will aim for an increase in core defence spending to 3.5% of GDP in 2029 and amount to a pretty speedy ramp up in spending already in 2025.

Other events today include central bank speak from the Fed’s Hamack, Williams, Kashkari, Collins, Barr and Schmid, ECB Vice President de Guindos, the ECB’s Kazimir and Lane, BoE Governor Bailey, and the BoE’s Greene, Ramsden, Pill and Breeden. Data releases include US Conference Board’s consumer confidence for June in the US, the Ifo’s business climate indicator for June in Germany, and Canada’s CPI for May. Finally, the NATO summit will begin.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 06/24/2025 – 08:33

“They Don’t Know What The F**K They’re Doing” – Furious Trump Slams Israel As Fragile Ceasefire Crumbles

“They Don’t Know What The F**K They’re Doing” – Furious Trump Slams Israel As Fragile Ceasefire Crumbles

Update (Tuesday 0730ET): 

President Donald Trump unleashed a fiery statement to the press just moments before boarding Marine One.

Trump declared, “We basically have two countries that have been fighting so long and so hard that they don’t know what the f*ck they’re doing. You understand that.”

The president then swiftly turned and walked toward Marine One.

The president also unleashed a fiery statement on his social media platform, Truth Social:

“ISRAEL. DO NOT DROP THOSE BOMBS. IF YOU DO IT IS A MAJOR VIOLATION. BRING YOUR PILOTS HOME, NOW! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES.”

Trump’s fiery statement comes just hours after Israel accused Iran of a “severe violation” of the overnight ceasefire. Israel’s military said it intercepted a missile launched by Iran, while Tehran denied the fresh attacks (more about the fresh attacks in previous update). 

Earlier, Israel and Iran had agreed to a truce after both countries exchanged missiles, bombs, and drones.

Israeli reporter Barak Ravid…

 

*   *   * 

Update(0320ET): As the US- and Qatar-brokered ceasefire deadline closed in, Israel and Iran exchanged lethal blows overnight, with Israel hitting various targets in Iran, killing nine people in northern Iran and reportedly assassinating yet another nuclear scientist, while Iran killed at least five Israelis in a devastating hit on an apartment tower. At eight minutes after midnight in Washington, President Trump used his Truth Social account to announce the ceasefire was in effect, and to urge continued compliance: 

Note that no broad peace deal has been made — only a suspension of hostilities that Trump seemingly hopes will prove long-lasting. After hours of silence, Israel on Tuesday morning confirmed it was a party to a ceasefire, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office saying “Israel [has] achieved all of the objectives of Operation Rising Lion, and much more.” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi confirmed Iran has “no intention to continue our response [to Israel’s initiation of war]…provided that the Israeli regime stops its illegal aggression against the Iranian people.” 

Israel claimed Iran fired missiles after the deadline, an accusation Araghchi refuted in an X post

“The military operations of our powerful Armed Forces to punish Israel for its aggression continued until the very last minute, at 4am. Together with all Iranians, I thank our brave Armed Forces who remain ready to defend our dear country until their last drop of blood, and who responded to any attack by the enemy until the very last minute.” 

In Iran’s last-minute act of retaliation, at least five people were killed and 26 injured in an enormous explosion that devastated a seven-story apartment building in the southern Israeli city of Beersheba. That toll may rise as responders continue to sort through rubble and incinerated automobiles. “We emphasize again—do not enter the scene!” said Israel’s Fire and Rescue Authority. “The arrival of civilians endangers public safety and makes it difficult for rescue forces to operate.”

Meanwhile, Trump continued his series of manic social media posts about the US attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities and the ensuing ceasefire, posting, “In a certain and very ironic way, that perfect ‘hit,’ late in the evening, brought everyone together, and the deal was made!!!” 

Christening the war with a name that depends fully on an enduring ceasefire, Trump earlier declared the conflict “should be called THE 12 DAY WAR.” Perhaps appropriately, that moniker harkens back to 1967’s Six-Day War, which — contrary to Zionist mythology — was also initiated by Israel. The Six-Day War resulted in Israel’s seizure of the West Bank, Gaza, Golan Heights, East Jerusalem and the Sinai Peninsula. Infamously, it was also during the Six-Day War that Israel executed an hours-long, broad-daylight, multi-faceted attack on the well-marked USS Liberty, killing 34 American service members and wounding 173. 

There’s already grumbling about the nascent peace among right-wing Israelis and Israel’s US-based boosters. While Netanyahu asked his cabinet ministers to refrain from commenting on the ceasefire, hawkish Yisrael Beytenu party chairman Avigdor Liberman decried the absence of an Iranian “unconditional surrender,” saying “Already at the beginning of the war, I warned that there is nothing more dangerous than leaving a wounded lion.” Similarly, Dan Illouz of Netanyahu’s Likud Party asked, “Has the enemy surrendered? Or is this just a round we won on points?” Striking a different tone, Opposition Leader Yair Lapid said the Netanyahu government should now end its war in Gaza, saying, “It’s time to [finish] there too. Return the hostages, end the war. Israel needs to start rebuilding.”

In the United States, Israel allies who thought they finally had their long-awaited, full-fledged American war on Iran are not happy. While they may still achieve their goal of leaving yet another Middle East society in ruin and despair in pursuit of Israeli regional supremacy, non-interventionists can at least enjoy the neocon heartbreak for as long as it lasts: 

* * *

Update(2200ET): The ceasefire is going to be shaky and likely difficult to maintain given that right up until the very moment it is to go into effect Tehran was on the receiving end of very intense Israeli warplane attacks. And Iran’s Foreign Minister too said Iran hit back overnight:

“The military operations of our powerful Armed Forces to punish Israel for its aggression continued until the very last minute, at 4am. Together with all Iranians, I thank our brave Armed Forces who remain ready to defend our dear country until their last drop of blood, and who responded to any attack by the enemy until the very last minute,” said FM Araghchi on X.

IRANIAN TELEVISION: ISRAEL ASSASSINATED NUCLEAR SCIENTIST MOHAMMAD REZA SIDDIQI IN ITS RECENT ATTACKS

But shortly before that above latest statement, there was this by the top Iranian diplomat:

What Tehran was looking like overnight, right up to ceasefire zero hour:

It’s anything but certain whether it will hold, but likely the White House is putting pressure on Tel Aviv to at least play nice for now, so Trump can take his ‘victory lap’ and declare mission accomplished. And yet, the status of Iran’s uranium enrichment stockpile is unknown.

The status of the ceasefire itself may not become clear until the daylight hours…

* * * 

Update: Fox is reporting, “President Trump spoke with Qatar’s Emir and informed him the U.S. got Israel to agree to a ceasefire with Iran. The President asked Qatar to help persuade Iran to do the same, following that Vice President Vance coordinated with Qatar’s Prime Minister on the details. This effort proved successful and, following discussions with the Qatari PM, the Iranians agreed. The deal was coordinated at the highest level by the President and Vice President and the Qatari Emir and Prime minister directly.” 

“Despite having been attacked just hours earlier, the Qataris set aside their grievances and prioritized regional security to get the deal done,” this source added.

Reuters is reporting that Iran has agreed to the ceasefire, which at the very least will provide a respite to the tit-for-tat missiles. More from Reuters:

  • Qatar Brokered Iran’s Ceasefire Deal After U.S. Request
  • Qatari PM secured Tehran’s approval following Trump’s outreach to Emir after Iran’s strike on U.S. base.
  • Doha played key role in halting Israel-Iran conflict

* * *

Update: Shortly after 6pm, futures jumped and oil slumped even more in one of its biggest intraday reversals on record, after Trump announced on his Truth Social account that Iran and Israel had “fully agreed” to a “Complete and Total ceasefire” which will takes place at approximately midnight ET, “when Israel and Iran have wound down and completed their in progress, final missions“, and will last for 12 hours, at which time Trump says that “War will be considered, ENDED!”

The president adds that “on the assumption that everything works as it should, which it will, I would like to congratulate both Countries, Israel and Iran, on having the Stamina, Courage, and Intelligence to end, what should be called, “THE 12 DAY WAR.” This is a War that could have gone on for years, and destroyed the entire Middle East, but it didn’t, and never will! God bless Israel, God bless Iran, God bless the Middle East, God bless the United States of America, and GOD BLESS THE WORLD!”

The problem for now, however, is that the “fully-agreed upon ceasefire” announcement is news to Iran, with Al-Mayadeen reporting that “there is no confirmation from official Iranian sources regarding Trump’s talk of a ceasefire”

Others only add to the confusion…

… with CNN noting that Iran has not received any ceasefire proposal

… and Iran’s semi-official Mehr News going so fast as to claim that “the Zionist regime carried out attacks on Iran, Trump spread his delusions and announced an imaginary ceasefire between Iran and the United States.

Yet not all the subsequent information is negative: according to Reuters, the US appears to be backchanneling with Qatar, which has been asked for help to persuade Iran to agree after Israel had already agreed, and also adds that Iran had reportedly secured an agreement to a ceasfire. 

  • TRUMP AND VP VANCE DISCUSSED ISRAEL-IRAN CEASEFIRE PROPOSAL WITH QATAR’S EMIR AFTER IRANIAN ATTACKS ON AIRBASE IN QATAR ON MONDAY –OFFICIAL BRIEFED ON NEGOTIATIONS TO REUTERS
  • TRUMP TOLD EMIR THAT ISRAEL HAD AGREED TO CEASEFIRE AND ASKED FOR QATARI HELP TO PERSUADE IRAN TO ALSO AGREE –OFFICIAL BRIEFED TO REUTERS
  • QATAR’S PRIME MINISTER SECURED IRAN’S AGREEMENT TO U.S. CEASEFIRE PROPOSAL IN CALL WITH TEHRAN -OFFICIAL BRIEFED TO REUTERS

And now we wait to see just who has agreed to what. 

* * *

Summary: The mainstream media and US officials are collectively reporting it’s all over folks – and there’s currently a surprisingly open level of acknowledgement that this ‘retaliation’ on US bases was telegraphed and even coordinated between Iran and Qatar (and that yes, the US knew about it). Tehran is saying the same number of missiles were used in the short-lived assault as were used by US bombers against its nuclear facilities.

“Iran’s missile attack on a US air base in Qatar was telegraphed well in advance, suggesting Tehran intended a symbolic show of force while offering a way to de-escalate after US airstrikes over the weekend,” Bloomberg is reporting. And CNN is currently even saying (based on its correspondent on the ground) that the skies over Tehran have grown quiet, after many days of constant strike waves by Israeli warplanes. The US military is saying all missiles were intercepted over Qatar. Airspace over Bahrain, Kuwait, and Dubai have already been reopened. 

Certainly markets have reacted consistent to this off-ramp narrative as well, as if it was all baked in: “One official with knowledge of Western intelligence assessments said the attack was a typical example of an ‘off-ramp’ escalation and warned it was more difficult to understand whether — and at what point — Israel would stop its own military activities in the region,” Bloomberg continues. The same report cites Jonathan Panikoff, a former deputy national intelligence officer for the Near East, who points to the obvious: It feels choreographed and intentional. The Iranians get to tell their population they struck a mighty blow against the US, even if they didn’t, and Trump has the room now to decide not to retaliate.”

The Trump White House is now signaling it currently has no plans to launch a ‘retaliation’ strike in the wake of today’s Iranian attacks on US assets in the Gulf. Most reports are claiming that no missiles actually struck the ground at a US base, but it could be that this information will get suppressed regardless. No deaths or injuries have been reported. Trump’s statement in the aftermath ‘thanking’ Iran, ironically enough

President Trump is essentially saying ‘mission accomplished’ and has declared that the three nuclear facilities struck by US bombers over the weekend were totally destroyed. But the big questions remain:

1) Will Netanyahu and the Israelis play ball with the ‘off-ramp’ opportunity?

2) Most importantly, where is the estimated 400kg of Iran’s enriched uranium now?

To some degree, more ‘known unknowns’ (cue Rumsfeld) have been created in the wake of Trump’s alleged destruction of Iran’s enrichment facilities. Perhaps the Iranians will now hasten to begin the actual secretive nuclear bomb program?

* * *

Update(1335ET): NY Times is reporting that advanced notice was given, which appears confirmation that plans of the ‘retaliation’ attack were leaked beforehand and was in many ways telegraphed publicly.

“Iran coordinated the attacks on the American airbase in Qatar with Qatar officials and gave advanced notice that attacks were coming to minimize casualties, according to three Iranian officials familiar with the plans,” per the NY Times’ reporting.

War theater? Or just one big test of US-supplied anti-air defense hardware? One regional journalist and pundit writes:

So far this is looking like the response we got in 2020 in response to the killing of Qassem Soleimani. A telegraphed attack on US base that did not result in fatalities but is “face saving” for the Iranian regime.

Some are claiming missile impact on some targets, which would indeed be a very serious development. But Qatar’s Al-Arabi is saying there were no Iranian missile attacks on Iraq’s Ain al-Assad base, which hosts significant US forces.

And meanwhile markets seem to be taking this all in as a bit of staged war theater…

Some odd trading behavior to say the least, seemingly indicating markets aren’t buying the ‘spectacle’ thus far…

Oil knows? 

Below: Oil at moment when Iran launched the first missiles…

* * *

Update(1242ET)The Iranian response appears to have begun, as it’s raining missiles over Doha, Qatar. AFP journalists are reporting explosions over Doha, and Reuters has also cited witnesses to the blasts.

Axios is reporting that Iran has launched six missiles toward American bases in Qatar. “Iranian missiles were launched targeting US bases in Qatar and Iraq,” according to JPost’s Amichai Stein. i24News is reporting that “at least 10 missiles were fired at Qatar.”

  • IRAN LAUNCHES MISSILE STRIKE AT US AIR BASE IN QATAR: TASNIM
  • UAE AIRSPACE IS CLOSED: FOX NEWS
  • AIR DEFENSE SYSTEM ACTIVATED OVER US AIN AL-ASSAD AIRBASE IN IRAQ ON ATTACK FEARS
  • IRAN LAUNCHES MISSILES AT US BASES IN QATAR, IRAQ AND KUWAIT
  • ALARMS HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT ALI AL SALEM AIR BASE IN KUWAIT
  • BAHRAIN URGES CITIZENS AND RESIDENTS TO GO TO SAFE PLACE
  • IRAN SAYS ITS ATTACK WAS FAR FROM QATAR RESIDENTIAL AREAS
  • Trump in Situation Room with Defense Secretary, Joint Chiefs — CNBC
  • U.S. military jets are currently scrambling from bases in Saudi Arabia: Report
  • Iranian military statement: we targeted the Al-Udeid Base in Qatar with ‘devastating and powerful’ missile attack.

Anti-air defenses active over the Gulf:

More early, unconfirmed footage:

It seems the Pentagon knew it was coming, and this may be telegraphed… perhaps more war theater:

* * *

Update(1235ET): A series of rapid news wire headlines have set off the alarm of an Iranian attack on US interests in the Middle East is ‘imminent’. Lots of fast-paced unverified claims racing:

  • Iran moves ballistic missile assets to target US assets across the region — WSJ
  • Large GPS disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz
  • US military jets being scrambled from Saudi Arabia, British & French military jets being scrambled
  • TRUMP ADMIN PREPARING FOR IRAN ATTACK ON US GULF BASES: AXIOS
  • CHINA URGES CITIZENS IN QATAR TO AVOID AL UDEID AIR BASE

Qatar has already been shutting down airspace, and importantly that is home to the US 5th Fleet.

“Iran is moving missile launchers into place for a potential attack on U.S. forces in the Middle East in response to the surprise American strike on three nuclear sites over the weekend, according to U.S. officials,” the breaking reports say.

S&P 500 ERASES GAIN

* * *

Update(1125ET): Iranian state media sources are reporting that Iran is likely to attack US military facilities in the Mideast region ‘in the coming hours’.

There are an estimated 40,000 American troops throughout the whole region, including at bases and on warships in the CENTCOM area of responsibility.

On Sunday the NY Times had cited US officials to say anonymous US military and intelligence officials had detected signs that Iran-backed groups are preparing hostile action against US forces in places like Syria and Iraq. There’s also the possibility of direct Iranian ballistic missile launches on bases in Iraq, just as happened in the wake of Soleimani’s assassination during the first Trump administration.

But is this response being telegraphed or even coordinated with the US so as to avoid uncontrollable escalation? Israeli journalist Amit Segal reports:

Senior Israeli officials assess that Iran will, in one way or another, coordinate its attack on the United States — similar to how it acted following the assassination of Qassem Soleimani. This is intended to avoid an unplanned escalation and out of hope to contain the incident. Perhaps in this context come the reports suggesting that the U.S. already knows the attack will take place within the next 48 hours.

Iranian missile and drone attacks on Israel started out fierce and sustained, but have waned in the last days. Tehran is not expected to go after US assets with such intensity, fearing that Washington could launch a full war of regime change targeting the Ayatollah.

Meanwhile, the Islamic Republic continues to get pummeled by now daily and nightly Israeli airstrikes, particularly over unprotected airspace in Western Iran…

* * *

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt has said in a fresh interview that the US administration is ‘confident’ that Saturday’s bombings of three key Iranian nuclear sites accomplished the job of dismantling Tehran’s alleged nuclear ambitions. She also said Trump made the decision “based on his own instincts and the US intelligence that he saw.”

“This strike on Saturday did make our homeland safer because it took away Iran’s ability to create a nuclear bomb. This is a regime that threatens ‘death to America,’ and ‘death to Israel, and they no longer have the capability to build this nuclear weapon and threaten the world,” she told ABC News on Monday morning while making media rounds. 

At a moment White House officials have been trying to downplay that this is a conflict of regime change in Iran, Leavitt did say the US is seeking to “Take away the power of this incredibly violent regime.

Fordow, Isfahan and Natanz were hit with huge bunker-buster bombs over the weekend, after which President Trump late Sunday declared on Truth Social: “Monumental Damage was done to all Nuclear sites in Iran, as shown by satellite images. Obliteration is an accurate term!”

However, UN inspectors at the IAEA currently have no access to the impacted sites of Fordow, Isfahan and Natanz – and the country remains essentially a warzone, also with airspace closed- as the region braces for potential Iranian response against US bases and assets. And of course, satellites can’t assess damage underground, where the enrichment facilities and stockpiles are located.

Press Secretary on FOX: “why shouldn’t the Iranian people take away the power of this incredibly violent regime?”

Also interesting is that Leavitt repeated the US administration talking point that the intel on Iran that Trump was provided made clear that Iran was ‘weeks’ from a nuclear weapon.

It remains that once again the American people are being led into supporting another US war and quagmire in the Middle East based on ‘trust us!’ from this administration, citing vague ‘intel reports’ on WMD, which sounds suspiciously like the faulty Bush-Cheney case against Saddam Hussein.

Still, the White House official narrative remains that Trump is not seeking full regime change in Iran, and this is also how Israeli media is presenting it in recent headlines:

“The President’s posture and our military posture has not changed,” White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt tells reporters.

“The president was simply raising a question that I think many people around the world are asking: if the Iranian regime refuses to give up its nuclear program or engage in talks… if they refuse to engage in diplomacy moving forward, why shouldn’t the Iranian people rise up against this brutal terrorist regime?”

So we are already in the ‘Iranian people should rise up’ phase of this war.

Below are all the latest headlines and developments of the last 24-48 hours…

* * *

Israel-Iran Latest Highlights

  • US President Trump confirmed the launch of “Operation Midnight Hammer”, which involved targeted strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. The operation used 125 aircraft, including seven B-2 bombers, alongside submarine-launched Tomahawk cruise missiles. Fourteen GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators (“bunker busters”) were deployed to penetrate deeply buried targets, notably Fordow.
  • Satellite imagery shows significant damage at all facilities. Trump described it as a joint effort with Israel.
  • IAEA say the damage assessment is pending; no signs of radiation leak.
  • In retaliation, Iran’s parliament has approved the closure of the Strait of Hormuz after the US launched strikes against the country’s nuclear facilities. Iran’s security body will make the final decision on whether to proceed with the plan, state television reported.
  • Iran retaliated by missile strikes on Israel. Has said future action could target over 20 US bases or naval assets. Iran’s Military Central Command says powerful operations with heavy consequences for the US are to be expected. US entering the conflict expands the list of legitimate targets for Iran.
  • The European morning has seen a slew of geopolitical updates (see section below). Some additional USD strength on: an Iranian provincial official says Israel is targeting the Fordow nuclear facility, via TasnimIsrael struck Fordow’s access road, to prevent certain elements from approaching the area, according to Journalist Stein.
  • Iran’s Military Central Command says powerful operations with heavy consequences for the US are to be expected. US entering the conflict expands the list of legitimate targets for Iran.
  • Iran’s Army Chief says they are now free to take action against US interests, via IRNA.
  • Iranian city Karaj has been targeted by Israeli missiles, according to Fars; reports of large explosions being heard in Tehran.
  • Russian Kremlin says President Putin will receive the Iranian Foreign Minister later today. Communication channels remain open with the US, a call between US President Trump and Putin can be “quickly organised if required”; no current plans for a call. Iran can share its proposals later today.

Israel-Iran Weekend News

US Strike Operations

  • US President Trump confirmed the launch of “Operation Midnight Hammer”, which involved targeted strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. The operation used 125 aircraft, including seven B-2 bombers, alongside submarine-launched Tomahawk cruise missiles.
  • Fourteen GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators (“bunker busters”) were deployed to penetrate deeply buried targets, notably Fordow.
  • Satellite imagery confirmed significant infrastructure damage at all three nuclear sites, with Fordow showing six fresh craters.
  • All targets were reportedly struck between 23:40 BST (Saturday) and 00:05 BST (Sunday). Iran’s air defence systems failed to detect or intercept the incoming attacks.
  • Trump described the attack as a joint effort with Israel, saying they “worked as a team like perhaps no team has ever worked before.”
  • Axios quoted officials as saying that Whitkov told Araqchi during the operation that “the strike is only once.” He confirmed that Washington was still seeking a diplomatic solution and wanted Tehran to return to negotiations.
  • US President Trump did not want to continue striking Iran, but he would do so if US bases were targeted, according to Sky News Arabia citing Axios.
  • US President Trump reportedly directed staff to announce a two-week window in order to conceal plans for the Iran attack, according to CNN sources.

Damage Assessment & Nuclear Risk

  • IAEA Director General Grossi said craters are visible at Fordow, Natanz suffered direct hits, and tunnel entrances at Isfahan were struck. Full underground damage assessment remains pending. A special IAEA board meeting is scheduled for Monday.
  • Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Gen. Dan Caine stated it is “too early” to assess whether Iran’s nuclear capability was fully neutralised.
  • US intelligence officials have raised concerns Iran may have relocated enriched uranium stockpiles in advance.
  • US Secretary of State Rubio urged Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpiles, claiming they remain buried under Isfahan and likely were not moved before the strikes.
  • The IAEA reported no signs of a radiation leak. Saudi Arabia’s Nuclear and Radiological Regulatory Authority confirmed no radioactive effects were detected in Gulf states.

Strait of Hormuz & Oil Flow Threat

  • The Iranian parliament has approved the closure of the Strait of Hormuz after the US launched strikes against the country’s nuclear facilities. Iran’s security body will make the final decision on whether to proceed with the plan, state television reported.
  • US Secretary of State Rubio warned such a move would be “economic suicide” for Iran but remains a credible escalation vector.
  • NOTE: Market contacts have suggested OPEC+ have not had any calls, with no talks of an emergency meeting yet amid no signs of supply disruptions, yet.

Iranian Military Response

  • Iran launched retaliatory missile strikes on Tel Aviv and Haifa, Israel, resulting in at least 86 reported injuries.
  • Iranian officials have warned that future actions could target over 20 US bases or naval assets in the region.
  • Iran stated that its military would determine the timing, nature, and scale of its response, according to Reuters.
  • Signs have emerged of Iran‑backed militias preparing to attack US bases in Iraq and Syria, according to Sky News Arabia citing The New York Times.
  • Iranian air defences reportedly activated in Isfahan, targeting hostile Israeli aircraft.
  • Iranian forces reported that Israeli airstrikes killed nine personnel — seven Revolutionary Guards and two conscripts — in Yazd province.

Iranian Messaging

  • Iran is weighing its response — with its Foreign Minister saying “all options” are on the table after Washington proved “they only understand the language of threat and force”, according to CNN.
  • Supreme Leader Khamenei warned that US strikes would “result in irreparable damage” to the US.
  • Iran’s President Pezeshkian warned of a “more devastating” retaliation if Israel’s bombing campaign continued.
  • Iranian regime sources denied any major nuclear material loss from the strikes, implying the sites had been pre-emptively evacuated.
  • Iran’s Crisis Management HQ stated there was “no danger” to civilians near Fordow; state media reported the site had “long been evacuated.”
  • An adviser to Khamenei claimed Iran still retains its enriched uranium, indigenous nuclear knowledge, and political will, despite facility damage.
  • Iran’s Foreign Minister condemned the strikes as a violation of international law and the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
  • The Iranian Atomic Energy Organisation called the attacks “a barbaric act” breaching international law.

International Reactions

  • The UN Security Council held an emergency meeting at 20:00 BST on Sunday in response to the strikes. US Ambassador Dorothy Shea defended the operation; China, Russia, and Pakistan called for an immediate ceasefire and accused the US of breaching the UN Charter.
  • The UN and EU called for de-escalation, with Secretary-General António Guterres warning of a “dangerous escalation.”
  • The E3 (UK, France, Germany) released a joint statement urging Iran to return to nuclear negotiations and warning against further destabilising actions.
  • Gulf Arab states including Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait condemned the US strikes, calling for restraint and diplomatic resolution.
  • UK PM Keir Starmer backed the US strike, describing it as a response to a “grave threat.”
  • Israeli PM Netanyahu praised the US action, calling it a display of “awesome and righteous might” that could “change history.”
  • Saudi Arabia, Oman, and India expressed concern and urged all sides to pursue diplomatic solutions.

US Political & Legal Fallout

  • Congressional response to the strikes was mixed. Most Republicans expressed support, with Senator Ted Cruz praising the operation. However, some dissent emerged within the party, notably from Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, who stated, “Not our fight.” Democrats strongly criticised the move; Senator Bernie Sanders labelled it “grossly unconstitutional” and accused President Trump of bypassing Congress.
  • US Department of Justice said President Trump had the authority under Article II to order Iran strikes without congressional approval, but a prolonged conflict might require Congress’s involvement, according to CNN.
  • US President Trump to meet with National Security team at 13:00 EDT/18:00 BST on Monday, according to Bloomberg.

Trump on Truth Social

  • US President Trump posted on Sunday “The damage to the Nuclear sites in Iran is said to be “monumental.” The hits were hard and accurate. Great skill was shown by our military. ” Trump added that “if the current Iranian Regime is unable to MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN, why wouldn’t there be a Regime change”, and that “The GREAT B-2 pilots have just landed, safely, in Missouri.”
  • President Trump later posted “Monumental Damage was done to all Nuclear sites in Iran, as shown by satellite images. Obliteration is an accurate term!… The biggest damage took place far below ground level. Bullseye!!!”

US Homeland Security & Domestic Threats

  • The US is on high alert for Iranian-backed terrorist attacks, especially in the 48 hours following the strike. FBI, DHS, and local law enforcement have increased security presence at places of worship in major cities including New York and Washington, DC.
  • DHS warned of a heightened domestic threat environment, including potential for cyberattacks or lone-wolf incidents inspired by religious rulings.
  • The White House is monitoring potential Iranian sleeper cells inside the US.
  • VP Vance stated the administration is watching known terror watch list individuals who entered during the Biden era.

Regional Axis Responses/Headlines

  • Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi arrived in Moscow to consult with President Putin. Russia condemned the US strikes as a “flagrant violation of international law.”
  • Iran’s Foreign Minister Araqchi said he would discuss tackling common challenges and threats with Russian President Putin, according to Iranian news agency SNN.
  • Hezbollah condemned the US strikes, calling them a violation of international and humanitarian law and warned the conflict could spiral globally.
  • A Yemeni Houthi official warned retaliation for the US attack was “only a matter of time.”

Tyler Durden
Tue, 06/24/2025 – 07:30

Nvidia CEO Activates 10b5-1 Trading Plan, Kicks Off Stock Sales

Nvidia CEO Activates 10b5-1 Trading Plan, Kicks Off Stock Sales

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has initiated a new 10b5-1 trading plan, aiming to sell up to 6 million shares by the end of the year. The timing follows a sharp rebound in Nvidia stock, which tumbled below $100 earlier this spring but has since surged 53% to around $144 as of Monday’s close.

Bloomberg cited a new Securities and Exchange Commission filing showing that Huang disposed of 100,000 shares between last Friday and Monday for $14.4 million. The sales are part of a new 10b5-1 trading plan the tech CEO adopted in March. 

Data pulled from Bloomberg via the Insider Transaction function on the Terminal shows Huang’s two 50,000-share sales following a massive multi-month rally in the stock, which is now nearing all-time highs.

Huang’s prearranged stock trading plan was established in March under SEC Rule 10b5-1, which allows corporate insiders to sell stock at predetermined times—even if they later possess material nonpublic information. These plans are designed to shield executives from accusations of insider trading.

The 10b5-1 gives Huang a 6 million share option by the end of the year. As of Monday’s close, at $144, that would be valued at $865 million. 

According to a separate SEC filing, billionaire Nvidia board director Mark Stevens has begun selling stock, disposing of more than 600,000 shares for roughly $88 million on June 18. Unlike Huang, Stevens does not use a 10b5-1 trading plan.
 

 

 

Tyler Durden
Tue, 06/24/2025 – 07:20

Tether Teases Plans To Slay Wall Street, Big Tech Entering Stablecoin Arena

Tether Teases Plans To Slay Wall Street, Big Tech Entering Stablecoin Arena

Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino teased the company’s ambitious plan to maintain its dominance in the rapidly growing stablecoin market, even as Wall Street and Big Tech signal their intent to enter the sector. 

In an interview with the popular crypto podcast Bankless, Ardoino discussed how Tether’s expansive global distribution network, strategic investments in dozens of companies, and the potential regulatory advantages that could hinder tech giants like from launching competing stablecoins. 

Over 11 years, Tether has built what Ardoino described as “the biggest distribution network for the U.S. dollar in the history of humanity,” with millions of physical touchpoints worldwide. Namely, the network reaches deep into emerging markets through initiatives like solar-powered kiosks in Africa, Ardoino told the show.

“Just in Africa, you know, we build, we are building, we did this pilot with 500 kiosks with solar panels on top and rechargeable batteries inside in Africa. 400 million people, 600 million people, actually, don’t have access to electricity, and so we build this kiosks with solar panels on top and batteries inside,” the Tether CEO said. “We sell subscriptions for 3 USDT per month to the people in these villages, and we have around 500,000 users already and 10 million battery swaps.”

Tether plans to expand this initiative significantly, according to Ardoino.

By 2026, we’re going to have 10,000 kiosks, and, end of 2030, we’re going to have 100,000 kiosks. So, we are going to touch around 30 million households by 2030. That means that 120 million people, on average, in Africa, first of all, is a change that you can see from space, because you light up a continent, and, also, you know, you have 120 million people that are going to rely, on a day-to-day basis, on the US dollar in the form of USDT,” he said.

Tether’s investment portfolio, encompassing over 100 companies, plays an integral role in market reach, Ardoino said, pointing to a partnership with the pro-free speech video-sharing platform Rumble. “Think about the U.S. domestic stablecoin. Rumble will launch a Rumble wallet and has 70 million users. It’s not bad to start with. It’s good to bootstrap. I think that is pretty much how many active users, much more active users than, probably, the biggest exchange in the U.S.” 

During his discussion with hosts Ryan Sean Adams and David Hoffman, Ardoino also delved into Tether’s meteoric growth. “The reason why Tether is the lead stablecoin and has such high metrics, like 450 million users, we grow by 30 million new wallets per quarter, and we publish that data. We have this website, called usdt.net, where we publish the updated data. 37% of our users are savings accounts, for example,” he explained.

Ardoino also reaffirmed Tether’s mission as one of extending the U.S. dollar’s influence to emerging markets. “That’s how you bring the US dollar farther, and you bring it to the emerging markets. That’s what what boiled in our pot for the last many years, and that is one of the least understood things about Tether,” he said.

Ardoino then weighed in on the recently Senate-approved GENIUS Act, which establishes a federal regulatory framework for stablecoins, as a potential obstacle for technology companies aiming to issue stablecoins. 

“We need to wait, but seems like companies like Meta might have a hard time to launch a stablecoin, given, if I’m not wrong, given the GENIUS Act,” Ardoino said. “There is kind of, sort of, a prohibition, if you are not primarily involved in finance. There is kind of prohibition that  is, at least, my take from the language that I saw.”

As of April 2025, Tether’s USDt held a 66% share of the stablecoin market, with a market capitalization of approximately $150 billion, according to CoinGecko. The Department of the Treasury’s first-quarter 2025 report projects that USD-pegged stablecoins could reach a combined market cap of $2 trillion by 2028. 

Circle, the issuer of USDC, saw its stock soar over 200% after a $1.1 billion IPO on the NYSE in June 2025, as major players like Amazon and banks explore launching their own stablecoins to capitalize on the growing market.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 06/24/2025 – 06:55

Beyond Beyond Meat: Lab Grown Meat Has Now Arrived For Sale In 3 Countries

Beyond Beyond Meat: Lab Grown Meat Has Now Arrived For Sale In 3 Countries

Is this what’s beyond Beyond Meat?

Australia just gave lab-grown meat the official thumbs-up, approving the sale of cultivated Japanese quail and joining the elite global club of… three. That’s right—only Singapore, the U.S., and now Australia are on board with selling meat that’s never had feathers, feet, or a heartbeat, Bloomberg wrote last week. 

Sydney-based startup Vow is behind the venture and says it’ll start serving up foie gras, parfait, and other fancy dishes made from quail cells in select restaurants within weeks. This follows a long-overdue tweak to the country’s food standards code, years in the making.

The science behind it? Cultivating animal cells in vats instead of raising entire animals, allegedly to save the planet and spare some lives. Noble goals, sure. But the cultivated meat industry hasn’t exactly been thriving. Funding is drying up, scaling remains a headache, and the political pushback—especially in the U.S.—has turned into a sideshow.

“While other markets face regulatory uncertainty, Australia is embracing innovation and consumers are ready to try something new and delicious,” Vow CEO George Peppou said, clearly feeling good about being the new kid on the bioreactor block.

Vow’s lab-grown quail will show up under its Forged brand at places like NEL in Sydney and Bottarga in Melbourne. Meanwhile, in Singapore, where Vow already operates, the company claims 200% month-over-month growth. Though when your starting point is a couple of upscale restaurant menus, that math isn’t exactly hard to beat.

Production is still a drop in the bucket compared to the real meat market, but Vow promises to hit 10.8 tons a month by year’s end. The company’s managed to raise more than $70 million from investors including Blackbird, Square Peg, and Peakbridge—suggesting at least some people are betting that cell-cultured quail is more than a novelty.

Still, whether diners will bite—or keep biting once the novelty wears off—remains the real question. It’s one thing to get approval; it’s another to convince people their $45 foie gras came from a vat and not a bird, and that’s a good thing.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 06/24/2025 – 04:15

Turkey Rejects Open-Door Policy For Refugees If Iran Falls Apart

Turkey Rejects Open-Door Policy For Refugees If Iran Falls Apart

Via Middle East Eye

Israeli and US attacks on Iran risk sparking a regional war or even triggering regime change in the country, a development that has concerned Turkish officials in Ankara since September. The Israeli strikes that began earlier this month initially targeted Iran’s nuclear infrastructure and air defense systems.

Over time, however, Israel shifted its focus toward the Iranian government’s command structure and later moved on to domestic security buildings. For example, on Monday, Israeli forces reportedly targeted the internal headquarters of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as well as the notorious Evin prison, where political prisoners are held.

One Israeli minister even suggested that Israel was cooperating with the Iranian opposition, reinforcing Defence Minister Israel Katz’s public statements that Israel seeks regime change or at least aims to undermine the Tehran government.

That is a prospect that US President Donald Trump tried to normalize on Sunday night with a post on Truth Social. “If the current Iranian Regime is unable to MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN, why wouldn’t there be a Regime change???” he asked. 

The Turkish government is acutely aware of the repercussions of regime-change operations and wars, having experienced the destabilizing effects of the 2003 US-led Iraqi invasion and, more recently, the 2011-24 Syrian [proxy] civil war. These conflicts have often resulted in hundreds of thousands of refugees crossing into Turkey and have disrupted key sectors such as energy and trade.

Turkish society remains highly sensitive about the presence of refugees, notably the 2.7 million Syrians, many of whom are now returning to Syria after the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government. Experts and officials emphasize that there is currently no new wave of refugees.

However, several sources familiar with the issue told Middle East Eye that as early as September, the Turkish government conducted in-depth studies on potential migration scenarios. They estimated that a full-scale war between Israel and Iran could push up to one million Iranian refugees towards the Turkish border.

Turkey has the experience. In 2012, then-foreign minister Ahmet Davutoglu attempted to control the influx of Syrian refugees by capping their number at 100,000 and threatening to establish a safe zone in northern Syria. However, the number of refugees quickly surpassed three million in the following years, which taught Ankara a difficult lesson.

Now, sources say Ankara is unlikely to accept any refugees except those in urgent need of emergency assistance.

“If the worst-case scenario were to occur and there was a mass migration from Iran to Turkey, whether permanent or in transit, Ankara would fulfil its obligations under humanitarian law, but it would not implement an open-door policy,” Serhan Afacan, president of the Center for Iranian Studies in Ankara, told Middle East Eye.

A Turkish official, speaking on condition of anonymity, confirmed that Ankara would no longer apply an “open door” policy toward any neighbouring country in the event of a refugee wave. Iranians currently can enter Turkey without a visa.

An elite influx?

Many Turkish citizens are particularly wary of the possible arrival of the 4.5 million Afghans currently living in Iran. However, Afacan noted that millions of Turkish-speaking ethnic Azerbaijanis also live in Iran. He said that if they were to gather at the border, it could shift the debate in Turkey and stir nationalistic sentiments. “But at present, there are no indications that Turks in Iran are planning to migrate,” Afacan added.

Last week, sources from the Turkish defence ministry told journalists there is currently no sign of a refugee influx into Turkey. One source stated that additional security measures have been implemented along all borders, including with Iran, and there is no uncontrolled migration. The Turkish Armed Forces are said to be prepared for all possible scenarios arising from regional developments.

This raises the question of whether Turkey would allow Iranian elites, including government officials, to enter if their government collapses. Many Iranians have already bought homes or acquired Turkish citizenship through investment in recent years.

According to interior ministry data released this year, 76,000 Iranians hold residence permits in Turkey. At least 35,000 have purchased homes since 2019, according to the Turkish Statistical Institute data released in 2024.

Via Stratfor

It is unclear whether all these purchases were made to obtain Turkish citizenship, but a naturalisation consultancy expert told MEE that Iranians are among the top nationalities seeking Turkish citizenship. Between 2012 and 2024, a total of 384,000 homes were sold to foreigners.

Afacan said many Iranian officials and military officers already own property in Turkey. For instance, during the emergency elections following President Ebrahim Raisi’s death in a helicopter crash last year, there was a major controversy over claims that Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and his family owned several luxurious apartments in an upscale Istanbul residence.

Afacan added that, as in the aftermath of the 1979 Islamic Revolution, albeit on a much smaller scale, a significant number of Iranian government officials would likely head to Turkey if the government were to fall.

“I do not believe that Turkey would close its doors to such individuals in that kind of scenario,” he said.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 06/24/2025 – 03:30

Trump: “THE CEASEFIRE IS NOW IN EFFECT. PLEASE DO NOT VIOLATE IT!” 

Trump: “THE CEASEFIRE IS NOW IN EFFECT. PLEASE DO NOT VIOLATE IT!” 

Update(0320ET): As the US- and Qatar-brokered ceasefire deadline closed in, Israel and Iran exchanged lethal blows overnight, with Israel hitting various targets in Iran, killing nine people in northern Iran and reportedly assassinating yet another nuclear scientist, while Iran killed at least five Israelis in a devastating hit on an apartment tower. At eight minutes after midnight in Washington, President Trump used his Truth Social account to announce the ceasefire was in effect, and to urge continued compliance: 

Note that no broad peace deal has been made — only a suspension of hostilities that Trump seemingly hopes will prove long-lasting. After hours of silence, Israel on Tuesday morning confirmed it was a party to a ceasefire, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office saying “Israel [has] achieved all of the objectives of Operation Rising Lion, and much more.” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi confirmed Iran has “no intention to continue our response [to Israel’s initiation of war]…provided that the Israeli regime stops its illegal aggression against the Iranian people.” 

Israel claimed Iran fired missiles after the deadline, an accusation Araghchi refuted in an X post

“The military operations of our powerful Armed Forces to punish Israel for its aggression continued until the very last minute, at 4am. Together with all Iranians, I thank our brave Armed Forces who remain ready to defend our dear country until their last drop of blood, and who responded to any attack by the enemy until the very last minute.” 

In Iran’s last-minute act of retaliation, at least five people were killed and 26 injured in an enormous explosion that devastated a seven-story apartment building in the southern Israeli city of Beersheba. That toll may rise as responders continue to sort through rubble and incinerated automobiles. “We emphasize again—do not enter the scene!” said Israel’s Fire and Rescue Authority. “The arrival of civilians endangers public safety and makes it difficult for rescue forces to operate.”

Meanwhile, Trump continued his series of manic social media posts about the US attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities and the ensuing ceasefire, posting, “In a certain and very ironic way, that perfect ‘hit,’ late in the evening, brought everyone together, and the deal was made!!!” 

Christening the war with a name that depends fully on an enduring ceasefire, Trump earlier declared the conflict “should be called THE 12 DAY WAR.” Perhaps appropriately, that moniker harkens back to 1967’s Six-Day War, which — contrary to Zionist mythology — was also initiated by Israel. The Six-Day War resulted in Israel’s seizure of the West Bank, Gaza, Golan Heights, East Jerusalem and the Sinai Peninsula. Infamously, it was also during the Six-Day War that Israel executed an hours-long, broad-daylight, multi-faceted attack on the well-marked USS Liberty, killing 34 American service members and wounding 173. 

There’s already grumbling about the nascent peace among right-wing Israelis and Israel’s US-based boosters. While Netanyahu asked his cabinet ministers to refrain from commenting on the ceasefire, hawkish Yisrael Beytenu party chairman Avigdor Liberman decried the absence of an Iranian “unconditional surrender,” saying “Already at the beginning of the war, I warned that there is nothing more dangerous than leaving a wounded lion.” Similarly, Dan Illouz of Netanyahu’s Likud Party asked, “Has the enemy surrendered? Or is this just a round we won on points?” Striking a different tone, Opposition Leader Yair Lapid said the Netanyahu government should now end its war in Gaza, saying, “It’s time to [finish] there too. Return the hostages, end the war. Israel needs to start rebuilding.”

In the United States, Israel allies who thought they finally had their long-awaited, full-fledged American war on Iran are not happy. While they may still achieve their goal of leaving yet another Middle East society in ruin and despair in pursuit of Israeli regional supremacy, non-interventionists can at least enjoy the neocon heartbreak for as long as it lasts: 

* * *

Update(2200ET): The ceasefire is going to be shaky and likely difficult to maintain given that right up until the very moment it is to go into effect Tehran was on the receiving end of very intense Israeli warplane attacks. And Iran’s Foreign Minister too said Iran hit back overnight:

“The military operations of our powerful Armed Forces to punish Israel for its aggression continued until the very last minute, at 4am. Together with all Iranians, I thank our brave Armed Forces who remain ready to defend our dear country until their last drop of blood, and who responded to any attack by the enemy until the very last minute,” said FM Araghchi on X.

IRANIAN TELEVISION: ISRAEL ASSASSINATED NUCLEAR SCIENTIST MOHAMMAD REZA SIDDIQI IN ITS RECENT ATTACKS

But shortly before that above latest statement, there was this by the top Iranian diplomat:

What Tehran was looking like overnight, right up to ceasefire zero hour:

It’s anything but certain whether it will hold, but likely the White House is putting pressure on Tel Aviv to at least play nice for now, so Trump can take his ‘victory lap’ and declare mission accomplished. And yet, the status of Iran’s uranium enrichment stockpile is unknown.

The status of the ceasefire itself may not become clear until the daylight hours…

* * * 

Update: Fox is reporting, “President Trump spoke with Qatar’s Emir and informed him the U.S. got Israel to agree to a ceasefire with Iran. The President asked Qatar to help persuade Iran to do the same, following that Vice President Vance coordinated with Qatar’s Prime Minister on the details. This effort proved successful and, following discussions with the Qatari PM, the Iranians agreed. The deal was coordinated at the highest level by the President and Vice President and the Qatari Emir and Prime minister directly.” 

“Despite having been attacked just hours earlier, the Qataris set aside their grievances and prioritized regional security to get the deal done,” this source added.

Reuters is reporting that Iran has agreed to the ceasefire, which at the very least will provide a respite to the tit-for-tat missiles. More from Reuters:

  • Qatar Brokered Iran’s Ceasefire Deal After U.S. Request
  • Qatari PM secured Tehran’s approval following Trump’s outreach to Emir after Iran’s strike on U.S. base.
  • Doha played key role in halting Israel-Iran conflict

* * *

Update: Shortly after 6pm, futures jumped and oil slumped even more in one of its biggest intraday reversals on record, after Trump announced on his Truth Social account that Iran and Israel had “fully agreed” to a “Complete and Total ceasefire” which will takes place at approximately midnight ET, “when Israel and Iran have wound down and completed their in progress, final missions“, and will last for 12 hours, at which time Trump says that “War will be considered, ENDED!”

The president adds that “on the assumption that everything works as it should, which it will, I would like to congratulate both Countries, Israel and Iran, on having the Stamina, Courage, and Intelligence to end, what should be called, “THE 12 DAY WAR.” This is a War that could have gone on for years, and destroyed the entire Middle East, but it didn’t, and never will! God bless Israel, God bless Iran, God bless the Middle East, God bless the United States of America, and GOD BLESS THE WORLD!”

The problem for now, however, is that the “fully-agreed upon ceasefire” announcement is news to Iran, with Al-Mayadeen reporting that “there is no confirmation from official Iranian sources regarding Trump’s talk of a ceasefire”

Others only add to the confusion…

… with CNN noting that Iran has not received any ceasefire proposal

… and Iran’s semi-official Mehr News going so fast as to claim that “the Zionist regime carried out attacks on Iran, Trump spread his delusions and announced an imaginary ceasefire between Iran and the United States.

Yet not all the subsequent information is negative: according to Reuters, the US appears to be backchanneling with Qatar, which has been asked for help to persuade Iran to agree after Israel had already agreed, and also adds that Iran had reportedly secured an agreement to a ceasfire. 

  • TRUMP AND VP VANCE DISCUSSED ISRAEL-IRAN CEASEFIRE PROPOSAL WITH QATAR’S EMIR AFTER IRANIAN ATTACKS ON AIRBASE IN QATAR ON MONDAY –OFFICIAL BRIEFED ON NEGOTIATIONS TO REUTERS
  • TRUMP TOLD EMIR THAT ISRAEL HAD AGREED TO CEASEFIRE AND ASKED FOR QATARI HELP TO PERSUADE IRAN TO ALSO AGREE –OFFICIAL BRIEFED TO REUTERS
  • QATAR’S PRIME MINISTER SECURED IRAN’S AGREEMENT TO U.S. CEASEFIRE PROPOSAL IN CALL WITH TEHRAN -OFFICIAL BRIEFED TO REUTERS

And now we wait to see just who has agreed to what. 

* * *

Summary: The mainstream media and US officials are collectively reporting it’s all over folks – and there’s currently a surprisingly open level of acknowledgement that this ‘retaliation’ on US bases was telegraphed and even coordinated between Iran and Qatar (and that yes, the US knew about it). Tehran is saying the same number of missiles were used in the short-lived assault as were used by US bombers against its nuclear facilities.

“Iran’s missile attack on a US air base in Qatar was telegraphed well in advance, suggesting Tehran intended a symbolic show of force while offering a way to de-escalate after US airstrikes over the weekend,” Bloomberg is reporting. And CNN is currently even saying (based on its correspondent on the ground) that the skies over Tehran have grown quiet, after many days of constant strike waves by Israeli warplanes. The US military is saying all missiles were intercepted over Qatar. Airspace over Bahrain, Kuwait, and Dubai have already been reopened. 

Certainly markets have reacted consistent to this off-ramp narrative as well, as if it was all baked in: “One official with knowledge of Western intelligence assessments said the attack was a typical example of an ‘off-ramp’ escalation and warned it was more difficult to understand whether — and at what point — Israel would stop its own military activities in the region,” Bloomberg continues. The same report cites Jonathan Panikoff, a former deputy national intelligence officer for the Near East, who points to the obvious: It feels choreographed and intentional. The Iranians get to tell their population they struck a mighty blow against the US, even if they didn’t, and Trump has the room now to decide not to retaliate.”

The Trump White House is now signaling it currently has no plans to launch a ‘retaliation’ strike in the wake of today’s Iranian attacks on US assets in the Gulf. Most reports are claiming that no missiles actually struck the ground at a US base, but it could be that this information will get suppressed regardless. No deaths or injuries have been reported. Trump’s statement in the aftermath ‘thanking’ Iran, ironically enough

President Trump is essentially saying ‘mission accomplished’ and has declared that the three nuclear facilities struck by US bombers over the weekend were totally destroyed. But the big questions remain:

1) Will Netanyahu and the Israelis play ball with the ‘off-ramp’ opportunity?

2) Most importantly, where is the estimated 400kg of Iran’s enriched uranium now?

To some degree, more ‘known unknowns’ (cue Rumsfeld) have been created in the wake of Trump’s alleged destruction of Iran’s enrichment facilities. Perhaps the Iranians will now hasten to begin the actual secretive nuclear bomb program?

* * *

Update(1335ET): NY Times is reporting that advanced notice was given, which appears confirmation that plans of the ‘retaliation’ attack were leaked beforehand and was in many ways telegraphed publicly.

“Iran coordinated the attacks on the American airbase in Qatar with Qatar officials and gave advanced notice that attacks were coming to minimize casualties, according to three Iranian officials familiar with the plans,” per the NY Times’ reporting.

War theater? Or just one big test of US-supplied anti-air defense hardware? One regional journalist and pundit writes:

So far this is looking like the response we got in 2020 in response to the killing of Qassem Soleimani. A telegraphed attack on US base that did not result in fatalities but is “face saving” for the Iranian regime.

Some are claiming missile impact on some targets, which would indeed be a very serious development. But Qatar’s Al-Arabi is saying there were no Iranian missile attacks on Iraq’s Ain al-Assad base, which hosts significant US forces.

And meanwhile markets seem to be taking this all in as a bit of staged war theater…

Some odd trading behavior to say the least, seemingly indicating markets aren’t buying the ‘spectacle’ thus far…

Oil knows? 

Below: Oil at moment when Iran launched the first missiles…

* * *

Update(1242ET)The Iranian response appears to have begun, as it’s raining missiles over Doha, Qatar. AFP journalists are reporting explosions over Doha, and Reuters has also cited witnesses to the blasts.

Axios is reporting that Iran has launched six missiles toward American bases in Qatar. “Iranian missiles were launched targeting US bases in Qatar and Iraq,” according to JPost’s Amichai Stein. i24News is reporting that “at least 10 missiles were fired at Qatar.”

  • IRAN LAUNCHES MISSILE STRIKE AT US AIR BASE IN QATAR: TASNIM
  • UAE AIRSPACE IS CLOSED: FOX NEWS
  • AIR DEFENSE SYSTEM ACTIVATED OVER US AIN AL-ASSAD AIRBASE IN IRAQ ON ATTACK FEARS
  • IRAN LAUNCHES MISSILES AT US BASES IN QATAR, IRAQ AND KUWAIT
  • ALARMS HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT ALI AL SALEM AIR BASE IN KUWAIT
  • BAHRAIN URGES CITIZENS AND RESIDENTS TO GO TO SAFE PLACE
  • IRAN SAYS ITS ATTACK WAS FAR FROM QATAR RESIDENTIAL AREAS
  • Trump in Situation Room with Defense Secretary, Joint Chiefs — CNBC
  • U.S. military jets are currently scrambling from bases in Saudi Arabia: Report
  • Iranian military statement: we targeted the Al-Udeid Base in Qatar with ‘devastating and powerful’ missile attack.

Anti-air defenses active over the Gulf:

More early, unconfirmed footage:

It seems the Pentagon knew it was coming, and this may be telegraphed… perhaps more war theater:

* * *

Update(1235ET): A series of rapid news wire headlines have set off the alarm of an Iranian attack on US interests in the Middle East is ‘imminent’. Lots of fast-paced unverified claims racing:

  • Iran moves ballistic missile assets to target US assets across the region — WSJ
  • Large GPS disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz
  • US military jets being scrambled from Saudi Arabia, British & French military jets being scrambled
  • TRUMP ADMIN PREPARING FOR IRAN ATTACK ON US GULF BASES: AXIOS
  • CHINA URGES CITIZENS IN QATAR TO AVOID AL UDEID AIR BASE

Qatar has already been shutting down airspace, and importantly that is home to the US 5th Fleet.

“Iran is moving missile launchers into place for a potential attack on U.S. forces in the Middle East in response to the surprise American strike on three nuclear sites over the weekend, according to U.S. officials,” the breaking reports say.

S&P 500 ERASES GAIN

* * *

Update(1125ET): Iranian state media sources are reporting that Iran is likely to attack US military facilities in the Mideast region ‘in the coming hours’.

There are an estimated 40,000 American troops throughout the whole region, including at bases and on warships in the CENTCOM area of responsibility.

On Sunday the NY Times had cited US officials to say anonymous US military and intelligence officials had detected signs that Iran-backed groups are preparing hostile action against US forces in places like Syria and Iraq. There’s also the possibility of direct Iranian ballistic missile launches on bases in Iraq, just as happened in the wake of Soleimani’s assassination during the first Trump administration.

But is this response being telegraphed or even coordinated with the US so as to avoid uncontrollable escalation? Israeli journalist Amit Segal reports:

Senior Israeli officials assess that Iran will, in one way or another, coordinate its attack on the United States — similar to how it acted following the assassination of Qassem Soleimani. This is intended to avoid an unplanned escalation and out of hope to contain the incident. Perhaps in this context come the reports suggesting that the U.S. already knows the attack will take place within the next 48 hours.

Iranian missile and drone attacks on Israel started out fierce and sustained, but have waned in the last days. Tehran is not expected to go after US assets with such intensity, fearing that Washington could launch a full war of regime change targeting the Ayatollah.

Meanwhile, the Islamic Republic continues to get pummeled by now daily and nightly Israeli airstrikes, particularly over unprotected airspace in Western Iran…

* * *

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt has said in a fresh interview that the US administration is ‘confident’ that Saturday’s bombings of three key Iranian nuclear sites accomplished the job of dismantling Tehran’s alleged nuclear ambitions. She also said Trump made the decision “based on his own instincts and the US intelligence that he saw.”

“This strike on Saturday did make our homeland safer because it took away Iran’s ability to create a nuclear bomb. This is a regime that threatens ‘death to America,’ and ‘death to Israel, and they no longer have the capability to build this nuclear weapon and threaten the world,” she told ABC News on Monday morning while making media rounds. 

At a moment White House officials have been trying to downplay that this is a conflict of regime change in Iran, Leavitt did say the US is seeking to “Take away the power of this incredibly violent regime.

Fordow, Isfahan and Natanz were hit with huge bunker-buster bombs over the weekend, after which President Trump late Sunday declared on Truth Social: “Monumental Damage was done to all Nuclear sites in Iran, as shown by satellite images. Obliteration is an accurate term!”

However, UN inspectors at the IAEA currently have no access to the impacted sites of Fordow, Isfahan and Natanz – and the country remains essentially a warzone, also with airspace closed- as the region braces for potential Iranian response against US bases and assets. And of course, satellites can’t assess damage underground, where the enrichment facilities and stockpiles are located.

Press Secretary on FOX: “why shouldn’t the Iranian people take away the power of this incredibly violent regime?”

Also interesting is that Leavitt repeated the US administration talking point that the intel on Iran that Trump was provided made clear that Iran was ‘weeks’ from a nuclear weapon.

It remains that once again the American people are being led into supporting another US war and quagmire in the Middle East based on ‘trust us!’ from this administration, citing vague ‘intel reports’ on WMD, which sounds suspiciously like the faulty Bush-Cheney case against Saddam Hussein.

Still, the White House official narrative remains that Trump is not seeking full regime change in Iran, and this is also how Israeli media is presenting it in recent headlines:

“The President’s posture and our military posture has not changed,” White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt tells reporters.

“The president was simply raising a question that I think many people around the world are asking: if the Iranian regime refuses to give up its nuclear program or engage in talks… if they refuse to engage in diplomacy moving forward, why shouldn’t the Iranian people rise up against this brutal terrorist regime?”

So we are already in the ‘Iranian people should rise up’ phase of this war.

Below are all the latest headlines and developments of the last 24-48 hours…

* * *

Israel-Iran Latest Highlights

  • US President Trump confirmed the launch of “Operation Midnight Hammer”, which involved targeted strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. The operation used 125 aircraft, including seven B-2 bombers, alongside submarine-launched Tomahawk cruise missiles. Fourteen GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators (“bunker busters”) were deployed to penetrate deeply buried targets, notably Fordow.
  • Satellite imagery shows significant damage at all facilities. Trump described it as a joint effort with Israel.
  • IAEA say the damage assessment is pending; no signs of radiation leak.
  • In retaliation, Iran’s parliament has approved the closure of the Strait of Hormuz after the US launched strikes against the country’s nuclear facilities. Iran’s security body will make the final decision on whether to proceed with the plan, state television reported.
  • Iran retaliated by missile strikes on Israel. Has said future action could target over 20 US bases or naval assets. Iran’s Military Central Command says powerful operations with heavy consequences for the US are to be expected. US entering the conflict expands the list of legitimate targets for Iran.
  • The European morning has seen a slew of geopolitical updates (see section below). Some additional USD strength on: an Iranian provincial official says Israel is targeting the Fordow nuclear facility, via TasnimIsrael struck Fordow’s access road, to prevent certain elements from approaching the area, according to Journalist Stein.
  • Iran’s Military Central Command says powerful operations with heavy consequences for the US are to be expected. US entering the conflict expands the list of legitimate targets for Iran.
  • Iran’s Army Chief says they are now free to take action against US interests, via IRNA.
  • Iranian city Karaj has been targeted by Israeli missiles, according to Fars; reports of large explosions being heard in Tehran.
  • Russian Kremlin says President Putin will receive the Iranian Foreign Minister later today. Communication channels remain open with the US, a call between US President Trump and Putin can be “quickly organised if required”; no current plans for a call. Iran can share its proposals later today.

Israel-Iran Weekend News

US Strike Operations

  • US President Trump confirmed the launch of “Operation Midnight Hammer”, which involved targeted strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. The operation used 125 aircraft, including seven B-2 bombers, alongside submarine-launched Tomahawk cruise missiles.
  • Fourteen GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators (“bunker busters”) were deployed to penetrate deeply buried targets, notably Fordow.
  • Satellite imagery confirmed significant infrastructure damage at all three nuclear sites, with Fordow showing six fresh craters.
  • All targets were reportedly struck between 23:40 BST (Saturday) and 00:05 BST (Sunday). Iran’s air defence systems failed to detect or intercept the incoming attacks.
  • Trump described the attack as a joint effort with Israel, saying they “worked as a team like perhaps no team has ever worked before.”
  • Axios quoted officials as saying that Whitkov told Araqchi during the operation that “the strike is only once.” He confirmed that Washington was still seeking a diplomatic solution and wanted Tehran to return to negotiations.
  • US President Trump did not want to continue striking Iran, but he would do so if US bases were targeted, according to Sky News Arabia citing Axios.
  • US President Trump reportedly directed staff to announce a two-week window in order to conceal plans for the Iran attack, according to CNN sources.

Damage Assessment & Nuclear Risk

  • IAEA Director General Grossi said craters are visible at Fordow, Natanz suffered direct hits, and tunnel entrances at Isfahan were struck. Full underground damage assessment remains pending. A special IAEA board meeting is scheduled for Monday.
  • Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Gen. Dan Caine stated it is “too early” to assess whether Iran’s nuclear capability was fully neutralised.
  • US intelligence officials have raised concerns Iran may have relocated enriched uranium stockpiles in advance.
  • US Secretary of State Rubio urged Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpiles, claiming they remain buried under Isfahan and likely were not moved before the strikes.
  • The IAEA reported no signs of a radiation leak. Saudi Arabia’s Nuclear and Radiological Regulatory Authority confirmed no radioactive effects were detected in Gulf states.

Strait of Hormuz & Oil Flow Threat

  • The Iranian parliament has approved the closure of the Strait of Hormuz after the US launched strikes against the country’s nuclear facilities. Iran’s security body will make the final decision on whether to proceed with the plan, state television reported.
  • US Secretary of State Rubio warned such a move would be “economic suicide” for Iran but remains a credible escalation vector.
  • NOTE: Market contacts have suggested OPEC+ have not had any calls, with no talks of an emergency meeting yet amid no signs of supply disruptions, yet.

Iranian Military Response

  • Iran launched retaliatory missile strikes on Tel Aviv and Haifa, Israel, resulting in at least 86 reported injuries.
  • Iranian officials have warned that future actions could target over 20 US bases or naval assets in the region.
  • Iran stated that its military would determine the timing, nature, and scale of its response, according to Reuters.
  • Signs have emerged of Iran‑backed militias preparing to attack US bases in Iraq and Syria, according to Sky News Arabia citing The New York Times.
  • Iranian air defences reportedly activated in Isfahan, targeting hostile Israeli aircraft.
  • Iranian forces reported that Israeli airstrikes killed nine personnel — seven Revolutionary Guards and two conscripts — in Yazd province.

Iranian Messaging

  • Iran is weighing its response — with its Foreign Minister saying “all options” are on the table after Washington proved “they only understand the language of threat and force”, according to CNN.
  • Supreme Leader Khamenei warned that US strikes would “result in irreparable damage” to the US.
  • Iran’s President Pezeshkian warned of a “more devastating” retaliation if Israel’s bombing campaign continued.
  • Iranian regime sources denied any major nuclear material loss from the strikes, implying the sites had been pre-emptively evacuated.
  • Iran’s Crisis Management HQ stated there was “no danger” to civilians near Fordow; state media reported the site had “long been evacuated.”
  • An adviser to Khamenei claimed Iran still retains its enriched uranium, indigenous nuclear knowledge, and political will, despite facility damage.
  • Iran’s Foreign Minister condemned the strikes as a violation of international law and the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
  • The Iranian Atomic Energy Organisation called the attacks “a barbaric act” breaching international law.

International Reactions

  • The UN Security Council held an emergency meeting at 20:00 BST on Sunday in response to the strikes. US Ambassador Dorothy Shea defended the operation; China, Russia, and Pakistan called for an immediate ceasefire and accused the US of breaching the UN Charter.
  • The UN and EU called for de-escalation, with Secretary-General António Guterres warning of a “dangerous escalation.”
  • The E3 (UK, France, Germany) released a joint statement urging Iran to return to nuclear negotiations and warning against further destabilising actions.
  • Gulf Arab states including Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait condemned the US strikes, calling for restraint and diplomatic resolution.
  • UK PM Keir Starmer backed the US strike, describing it as a response to a “grave threat.”
  • Israeli PM Netanyahu praised the US action, calling it a display of “awesome and righteous might” that could “change history.”
  • Saudi Arabia, Oman, and India expressed concern and urged all sides to pursue diplomatic solutions.

US Political & Legal Fallout

  • Congressional response to the strikes was mixed. Most Republicans expressed support, with Senator Ted Cruz praising the operation. However, some dissent emerged within the party, notably from Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, who stated, “Not our fight.” Democrats strongly criticised the move; Senator Bernie Sanders labelled it “grossly unconstitutional” and accused President Trump of bypassing Congress.
  • US Department of Justice said President Trump had the authority under Article II to order Iran strikes without congressional approval, but a prolonged conflict might require Congress’s involvement, according to CNN.
  • US President Trump to meet with National Security team at 13:00 EDT/18:00 BST on Monday, according to Bloomberg.

Trump on Truth Social

  • US President Trump posted on Sunday “The damage to the Nuclear sites in Iran is said to be “monumental.” The hits were hard and accurate. Great skill was shown by our military. ” Trump added that “if the current Iranian Regime is unable to MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN, why wouldn’t there be a Regime change”, and that “The GREAT B-2 pilots have just landed, safely, in Missouri.”
  • President Trump later posted “Monumental Damage was done to all Nuclear sites in Iran, as shown by satellite images. Obliteration is an accurate term!… The biggest damage took place far below ground level. Bullseye!!!”

US Homeland Security & Domestic Threats

  • The US is on high alert for Iranian-backed terrorist attacks, especially in the 48 hours following the strike. FBI, DHS, and local law enforcement have increased security presence at places of worship in major cities including New York and Washington, DC.
  • DHS warned of a heightened domestic threat environment, including potential for cyberattacks or lone-wolf incidents inspired by religious rulings.
  • The White House is monitoring potential Iranian sleeper cells inside the US.
  • VP Vance stated the administration is watching known terror watch list individuals who entered during the Biden era.

Regional Axis Responses/Headlines

  • Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi arrived in Moscow to consult with President Putin. Russia condemned the US strikes as a “flagrant violation of international law.”
  • Iran’s Foreign Minister Araqchi said he would discuss tackling common challenges and threats with Russian President Putin, according to Iranian news agency SNN.
  • Hezbollah condemned the US strikes, calling them a violation of international and humanitarian law and warned the conflict could spiral globally.
  • A Yemeni Houthi official warned retaliation for the US attack was “only a matter of time.”

Tyler Durden
Tue, 06/24/2025 – 03:20

France Is No Longer France

France Is No Longer France

French authorities detained 12 suspects after 145 people reported being pricked with syringes during Fête de la Musique — France’s annual World Music Day celebration. For perspective on how dramatically the festival has changed in three decades, compare the atmosphere of the 1994 event to the chaos seen this past weekend. 

Millions flooded the streets across France on Saturday to celebrate the universal language of music through open-air concerts, pop-up performances, community orchestras, DJ sets, and more. While footage earlier in the day showed an orderly atmosphere, the night quickly descended into unrest. 

State-owned international news television France 24 provided more color on the stabbings:

Before the party, posts on Snapchat and other social media had called for targeting women during the festivities.

The interior ministry said 145 victims reported being stabbed with needles across the country, with Paris police reporting 13 cases in the capital.

Officials did not specify if they were cases of so-called needle spiking with date-rape drugs such as Rohypnol or GHB, used by attackers to render victims confused or unconscious and vulnerable to sexual assault.

“Some victims were taken to hospital for toxicological tests,” the ministry said.

In Paris, investigations were opened after three people including a 15-year-old girl and an 18-year-old male, reported being stabbed in three different locations in Paris, prosecutors said.

We need to revisit footage from the 1994 Fête de la Musique to understand what went wrong with society. The difference is stark, and much of the blame likely lies with decades of failed progressive policies that have eroded society, fueling chaos and lawlessness. Mass migration has likely accelerated these problems.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 06/24/2025 – 02:45