Authored by Jesse Coghlan via CoinTelegraph.com,

Elon Musk says his artificial intelligence company xAI will retrain its AI model, Grok, on a new knowledge base free of “garbage” and “uncorrected data” — by first using it to rewrite history. 

In an X post on Saturday, Musk said the upcoming Grok 3.5 model will have “advanced reasoning” and wanted it to be used “to rewrite the entire corpus of human knowledge, adding missing information and deleting errors.”

He said the model would then retrain on the new knowledge set, claiming there was “far too much garbage in any foundation model trained on uncorrected data.”

Source: Elon Musk 

Musk’s latest fight against “woke”

Musk has long claimed that rival AI models, such as ChatGPT from OpenAI, a firm he co-founded, are biased and omit information that is not politically correct.

For years, Musk has looked to shape products to be free from what he considers to be damaging political correctness and has aimed to make Grok what he calls “anti-woke.”

He also relaxed Twitter’s content and misinformation moderation when he took over in 2022, which saw the platform flooded with unchecked conspiracy theories, extremist content and fake news, some of which was spread by Musk himself.

Musk aimed to fight the tide of misinformation by implementing a “Community Notes” feature, allowing X users to debunk or add context to posts that show prominently under offending posts.

Criticism levelled at Grok’s retraining

Musk’s post attracted condemnation from his critics, including from Gary Marcus, an AI startup founder and New York University professor emeritus of neural science who compared the billionaire’s plan to a dystopia.

“Straight out of 1984,” Marcus wrote on X. ”You couldn’t get Grok to align with your own personal beliefs so you are going to rewrite history to make it conform to your views.”

Source: Gary Marcus

Bernardino Sassoli de’​ Bianchi, a University of Milan professor of logic and science philosophy, wrote on LinkedIn that he was “at a loss of words to comment on how dangerous” Musk’s plan is.

“When powerful billionaires treat history as malleable simply because outcomes don’t align with their beliefs, we’re no longer dealing with innovation — we’re facing narrative control,” he added. “Rewriting training data to match ideology is wrong on every conceivable level.”

Musk’s call for “facts” brings conspiracy theories, falsehoods

As part of his effort to overhaul Grok, Musk called on X users to share “divisive facts” to train the bot, specifying they should be “politically incorrect, but nonetheless factually true.”

The replies saw a variety of conspiracy theories and debunked extremist claims, including Holocaust distortion, debunked vaccine misinformation, racist pseudoscientific claims regarding intelligence and climate change denial.

Update (1255ET): 

Earlier reports confirmed that six supertankers abruptly reversed course in the Strait of Hormuz.

Now, new alerts indicate Iranian missiles have been spotted over Doha.

This brings us to GPSJam—a site that publishes daily heat maps of GPS/GNSS disruptions impacting aircraft—which now shows widespread “high-interference” GPS jamming across the critical maritime chokepoint. This suggests further disruptions to maritime navigation in the waterway. 

“Maritime activity slows in Gulf,” private data and analytics firm Kpler wrote on X.

Maritime activity slows in Gulf

Kpler vessel tracking indicates declines in maritime traffic in the Mideast #Gulf since the Israel-Iran conflict began on Friday, June 13.

In addition to the risks of conflict escalation, subsequent navigation system interference and disruption… pic.twitter.com/NzPmm88k5M

— Kpler (@Kpler) June 23, 2025

*   *   * 

Update (1119ET): 

The clock is ticking as Iran vows retaliation.

Iranian military officials and members of parliament warned that the U.S. will face severe consequences for its stealth bomber strikes on three of its nuclear facilities. While the exact nature of Iran’s response remains uncertain, traders and analysts are hyper-focused on the potential for a partial—or even full—closure of the critical Strait of Hormuz, a maritime chokepoint that handles 20% of global energy flows.

With Iranian retaliation strikes appearing imminent, supertankers navigating the narrow, critical waterway are increasingly making U-turns to avoid potential missile or drone attacks. The number of U-turns of supertankers has now ticked up to six. 

Here’s more from The Telegraph:

Supertankers have performed U-turns in the Strait of Hormuz amid uncertainty over how Iran will retaliate against U.S. strikes on its nuclear sites.

Six of the giant vessels, some capable of carrying 2m barrels of crude, turned back after entering the crucial trade route over the last 24 hours, according to vessel tracking data from MarineTraffic.

Three of the ships – named the Coswisdom Lake, South Loyalty and Damsgaard – eventually made second U-turns and headed through the Strait today.

It comes after Greece’s shipping ministry warned on Sunday that the country’s owners should think twice about using the route.

Meanwhile two large Japanese shipping companies said they will cut exposure to the strait, where a fifth of the world’s oil and gas supplies pass through.

In energy markets, Goldman analysts laid out two scenarios:

1. If only Iran supply were to drop by 1.75mb/d, they estimate that Brent would peak of around $90, with a decline back to the $60s in 2026;

2. If oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz were to drop by 50% for one month and then were to remain down 10% for another 11 months, they estimate that Brent would briefly jump to a peak of around $110.

The analysts also noted:

They also expect European natural gas and LNG markets to price a somewhat higher probability of a large supply disruption. A hypothetical sustained and very large disruption of energy supply transit through the Strait of Hormuz, would likely push oil and European natural gas prices above $110/bbl and 100 EUR/MWh, respectively, given the nearly 20% disruption to global energy supplies.

Latest in energy markets over the last day: 

• Rabo: Even If Iran Does Not Close Hormuz, Insurance Costs Will Soar Pushing Oil Prices Higher

• Oil Shorts Are Betting Iran Situation Will Not Escalate

• Morgan Stanley: The Three Scenarios For Oil

*   *   * 

Two supertankers—Coswisdom Lake and South Loyalty—each capable of carrying 2 million barrels of crude, abruptly altered course in the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend after U.S. stealth bomber strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities. 

The Coswisdom Lake and South Loyalty both entered the waterway and abruptly changed course on Sunday, according to vessel tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. The first of the two carriers then did a second U-turn and is now going back through Hormuz. The other one remains outside of the Persian Gulf, according to its signals on Monday. –Bloomberg

On Sunday, Iranian state-owned outlet Press TV quoted Major General Kowsari, a senior member of the Iranian Parliament’s National Security Commission, as stating:

“Parliament has reached the conclusion that the Strait of Hormuz should be closed, but the final decision in this regard lies with the Supreme National Security Council.” 

RBC Capital Markets analysts, led by Helima Croft, believe Iran doesn’t need to close the critical maritime chokepoint to disrupt global oil transport. Instead, Tehran could use targeted strikes on individual tankers or key infrastructure—such as the port of Fujairah—to destabilize the vital waterway.

Croft and her team note:

• Iran could have already inflicted major damage but hasn’t, suggesting strategic restraint—so far.

• Even limited actions could prompt shippers to avoid the region, especially in the current high-risk environment.

• If Iran’s leadership feels its survival is threatened, it may mobilize allied groups in Iraq and Yemen, further escalating threats to regional energy assets.

• RBC warns it may take days or weeks to gauge Tehran’s true response and cautions against assuming the danger has passed.

In the overnight, Brent crude futures reversed sharply—now trading around Friday’s close and down 6% or so from intraday highs. UBS Research warned that the real left-tail risk remains a Strait of Hormuz closure, which would trigger a disruption larger than the 2022 Russian supply shock and could send prices soaring above $120.

Other critical research on Hormuz scenarios:

• Oil Could Hit $130 In “Worst Case Scenario”: JPMorgan

• What’s Next For Oil: Banks See Oil Spiking As High As $120; Worst-Case Odds Rise To 17%

• $150 Oil? Goldman Lays Out How Markets Will React To U.S. Escalation In Iran

• Morgan Stanley: The Three Scenarios For Oil

“Iran’s asymmetric response is possible…limited yet impactful (partial disruption in Hormuz/Red Sea plausible, though full closure unlikely),” Goldman analyst Giulio Esposito noted on Monday. 

Keep in mind that any closure—partial or full—of the Strait of Hormuz would impact Asian importers, such as China, India, Japan, South Korea, and Singapore, as well as parts of Europe, the most. The U.S. is comparatively less exposed, thanks to shale production and Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The real question is—will Asia stand by and allow Tehran to shutter the waterway?

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

“Jackie, are you here? Where’s Jackie?”

When then-President Joe Biden asked in September 2022 if House Rep. Jackie Walorski, an Indiana Republican who had died weeks earlier in a car accident, was in a meeting, observers were shocked. Biden had not only issued a statement of condolence; he had attended the  congresswoman’s memorial service to lower the flags at the White House in her honor.

As Washington Post media critic Erik Wemple noted last week, that moment should have been a wake-up call. In Washington parlance, it left no room for “plausible deniability” about whether Biden was still fit to hold the office of president. And it wasn’t just Democratic politicians who were willfully blind to Biden’s obvious deterioration; it was the media, too.

That’s why the country should fully support President Donald Trump’s June 4 order for his administration to investigate Biden’s competence and answer some of these questions, including the possible abuse of an autopen to sign legislation, pardons and other documents while he was president, instead of looking for political motivations.

Similarly, the Republican-led House Oversight Committee is also investigating.

The New York Times called it part of Trump’s “campaign of retribution against his perceived enemies” and “the latest effort by President Trump to stoke conspiracy theories about his predecessor.”

There is a weird dissonance when journalists blame Biden’s White House for a coverup, but then criticize efforts to investigate that coverup. While criminal charges are unlikely to stem from the investigation, if the White House autopen, for instance, was used without Biden’s consent, that would amount to forgery, obstruction of justice, fraud or other serious crimes.

The complicity of politicians, staff and even the press in deception is nothing new in Washington. A century ago, after President Woodrow Wilson experienced a severe stroke in September 1919, his wife, Edith, and his staff covered up the severity of his condition, which made him incapable of fulfilling his duties till the end of his term and affected the race for a Democratic successor. To end such abuses, we must demand accountability and greater transparency on matters of presidential health and competence.

The 25th Amendment of the Constitution was intended to address succession issues, including the incapacity of a president, but it is very difficult to remove a president without the support of the vice president and most of the Cabinet, meaning, little can be done without a virtual mutiny within the White House.

That is particularly true when staff have an interest in maintaining the illusion to keep the president and themselves in power. With Biden, according to the reporting in the book “Original Sin” by journalists Jake Tapper and Alex Thompson, the staff regularly cut off the access of Cabinet secretaries on down to Biden, limited public events and scripted short remarks for the president to read from teleprompters.

Allegations that Biden’s staff misused the autopen are exceptionally difficult to prove, and Biden has issued a statement that he had full knowledge of everything that was signed.

Absent a confession of incapacity, we need someone Congress would need someone like John Dean, the White House counsel during the Nixon administration who was willing to break from the ranks and implicate his former associates. So far, there do not appear to be any Deans on the Biden staff, who are likely eager to avoid being implicated in potential improper use of the autopen or other actions that may have circumvented the president or covered up his decline.

But that doesn’t mean that the Trump administration and Congress shouldn’t be trying to get to the bottom of what happened. The worst thing for the American people would be a collective shrug and a resumption of business as usual.

In Washington, it is the cover-up that is often the basis for prosecution rather than the original crime.

The most likely path to success in such investigations is to get staffers to trip the wire in interviews by lying to or misleading investigators. Such false statements can be (and often are) criminally charged.

Such charges are then often used to wedge witnesses into cooperating with investigators in exchange for plea agreements. One cooperating witness can force a cascading failure for the defense as additional staff members are implicated and rush to make their own plea bargains. It is the Washington version of musical chairs: You do not want to be the last staffer without a plea to sit on.

Currently scheduled to testify before the House Oversight Committee in the coming weeks are Neera Tanden, the former director of Biden’s Domestic Policy Council; Anthony Bernal, Biden’s former assistant and senior advisor to the first lady; Ashley Williams, a former special assistant to Biden and deputy director of Oval Office operations; and Annie Tomasini, Biden’s former deputy chief of staff. Their statements might push divisions to the surface.

Biden was kept on a reduced schedule, allowing him to rally for single events. That is the difference between a major stroke and creeping cognitive decline. The 25th Amendment was designed for catastrophic medical events, not the slow slide to senility.

The result for the office can be largely the same, but the chances of detection are much lower. For now, the Biden scandal shows that very little has changed since the Wilson scandal. With a protective first lady, a lax White House physician and a cooperative staff, it is still possible to conceal the alleged incapacity of a commander in chief. That is why you might not have a “Weekend at Bernie’s“, but you can easily have a full term with Biden.

*  *  *

Jonathan Turley is the Shapiro Professor of Public Interest Law at George Washington University and the best-selling author of “The Indispensable Right: Free Speech in an Age of Rage.”

Following May’s resurgence in ‘soft’ survey data, S&P Global’s PMI surveys were expected to dip modestly in preliminary June data this morning.

But the picture was mixed with both Manufacturing flat (but beating expectations 52.0 vs 51.0 exp) and Services down very modestly (but beating expectations 53.1 vs 52.9 exp) rising at the start of June (even as hard data fades)…

Source: Bloomberg

However, prices also rose sharply in the service sector, likewise often attributed to tariffs but also reflecting higher financing, wage and fuel costs. Service sector input costs and selling prices nonetheless rose at slower rates than in May, in part reflecting more intense competition.

Commenting on the flash PMI data, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said:

“The June flash PMI data indicated that the US economy continued to grow at the end of the second quarter, but that the outlook remains uncertain while inflationary pressures have risen sharply in the past two months.

“Although business activity and new orders have continued to grow in June, growth has weakened amid falling exports of both goods and services. Furthermore, while domestic demand has strengthened, notably in manufacturing, to encourage higher employment, this in part reflects a boost from stock building, in turn often linked to concerns over higher prices and supply issues resulting from tariffs. Such a boost is likely to unwind in the coming months.

But inflationary fears remais

“Prices for goods have meanwhile jumped sharply again, the rate of increase accelerating to a three year high as firms pass higher tariff-related costs on to customers. Service providers are by no means immune to this tariff impact and likewise reported another jump in prices, often linked to tariffs on inputs such as food.

“The data therefore corroborate speculation that the Fed will remain on hold for some time to both gauge the economy’s resilience and how long this current bout of inflation lasts for.”

So take your pick – better than expected but no ongoing recovery and prices are soaring.

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

The Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Department apologized on Sunday for a social media post that expressed condolences to people affected by bombings in Iran following U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear sites on June 21.

The now-deleted post on the social media platform X read, “Our hearts go out to the victims and families impacted by the recent bombings in Iran.”

The department also referred to the incident as a tragic event.

The department said in the post that it would increase patrol checks at places of worship and other sensitive locations, though there had been no known threats detected in Los Angeles County.

The original post appeared to have been deleted from X but the version on Facebook remained.

It has since been edited to remove the reference to Iran.

The department issued a formal statement on June 22 apologizing for the post, acknowledging that it was “offensive and inappropriate,” while affirming its focus on protecting public safety.

“This post was unacceptable, made in error, and does not reflect the views of Sheriff Robert G. Luna or the Department. As a law enforcement agency, we do not comment on foreign policy or military matters,” it said.

The department said it has initiated an internal review to determine how the post was created and published.

It added that steps are being taken to tighten social media oversight protocols to ensure that any future posts align with the department’s standards moving forward.

“We fully recognize that the words and messages we share carry weight,” it stated. “We are committed to learning from this failure and to prevent such incidents from occurring again.”

A satellite view shows an overview of the Fordow complex, after the United States struck the underground nuclear facility, near Qom, Iran, on June 22, 2025. Maxar Technologies/Handout via Reuters

The now-deleted post came on the heels of President Donald Trump’s announcement on June 21 that the United States had struck three Iranian nuclear facilities amid the exchange of missiles and drone attacks between Israel and Iran.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi condemned the strikes and warned of “everlasting consequences,” but did not reveal the extent of the damage or whether there were any casualties.

The DHS issued a bulletin under the National Terrorism Advisory System on June 22, warning of “a heightened threat environment” in the United States.

The DHS said, “Low-level cyber attacks against US networks by pro-Iranian hacktivists are likely, and cyber actors affiliated with the Iranian government may conduct attacks against US networks.”

It stated that Iran also has “a long-standing commitment” to target officials it holds responsible for the death of Qasem Soleimani, an Iranian military commander killed by the U.S. military in January 2020 during Trump’s first term.

“Multiple recent Homeland terrorist attacks have been motivated by anti-Semitic or anti-Israel sentiment, and the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict could contribute to US-based individuals plotting additional attacks,” the DHS stated.

The bulletin on the increased threat environment is set to expire on Sept. 22.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom stated on social media that the state is “actively monitoring for any potential impacts” in the aftermath of the U.S. airstrikes on Iran.

“While there are no specific or credible counter threats we are aware of at this time, we urge everyone to stay vigilant and report suspicious activity,” Newsom stated on June 21.

Shares of Hims & Hers Health crashed in premarket trading after Novo Nordisk terminated its GLP-1 partnership with the telehealth firm, citing violations of federal law related to mass sales of compounded drugs disguised as “personalized” treatments, along with deceptive marketing practices that allegedly jeopardized patient safety.

Novo Nordisk terminates collaboration with HIMS, stock plunges

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 23, 2025

Following the FDA’s resolution of the national Wegovy shortage in April, Novo partnered with select telehealth companies, including Hims & Hers, to transition patients from unregulated, compounded versions to the approved version of Wegovy. However, Novo alleges that Hims & Hers failed to comply with legal and safety standards… 

Here’s more from Novo:

In late April, the FDA resolved the Wegovy shortage based on its conclusion that Novo Nordisk is fully meeting current and projected nationwide demand for this medicine. In support of transitioning patients from knock-off compounded versions to authentic, FDA-approved Wegovy through NovoCare Pharmacy, Novo Nordisk began collaborating with telehealth companies. Over one month into the collaboration, Hims & Hers Health, Inc. has failed to adhere to the law which prohibits mass sales of compounded drugs under the false guise of “personalization” and are disseminating deceptive marketing that put patient safety at risk.

Novo Nordisk is deeply concerned and is continuing to take proactive measures to keep US patients safe from knock-off drugs made with foreign illicit active pharmaceutical ingredients. Based on Novo Nordisk’s investigation, the “semaglutide” active pharmaceutical ingredients that are in the knock-off drugs sold by telehealth entities and compounding pharmacies are manufactured by foreign suppliers in China.

NOVO terminates Hims & Hers collaboration citing HIMS “illegal mass compounding and deceptive marketing.”

Resounding endorsement for HIMS, should be down 50% shortly after their primary source of upside accused them of being criminals. https://t.co/aCyXPuYtTD

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 23, 2025

Dave Moore, Executive Vice President, US Operations of Novo Nordisk, stated:

“Novo Nordisk is firm on our position and protecting patients living with obesity. When patients are prescribed semaglutide treatments by their licensed healthcare professional or a telehealth provider, they are entitled to receive authentic, FDA-approved and regulated Wegovy.

“We will work with telehealth companies to provide direct access to Wegovy® that share our commitment to patient safety – and when companies engage in illegal sham compounding that jeopardizes the health of Americans, we will continue to take action.”

In markets, shares of Hims & Hers Health plunged as much as 20% in premarket trading.

This comes after the stock closed near a 52-week high of around $64 on Friday. Short interest has surged to 34.8% of the float—equivalent to roughly 61 million shares—highlighting elevated bearish positioning.

The partnership is still prominently featured on Hims & Hers Health’s website.

Hims & Hers’ entire business model is now under scrutiny, after its largest partner—Novo Nordisk—effectively exposed it as built on grey areas. What was marketed as “personalized care” is looking like a mass-scale compounding scheme…

US stock futures rebounded strongly overnight after initially falling as much as 1% to 5,970 after the weekend escalation in the Iran-Israeli war where the US bombed three key nuclear facilities in Iran, to eventually rise as much as 0.3% before fading again as US traders came to their desks, while Europe traded near session lows. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are down 0.1% while Nasdaq 100 futures drop 0.3% with Mag 7 names mixed, as TSLA outperforms (+1.5% after the Robotaxi launch), META (+0.4%) and GOOG/L (+0.4%). Bond yields reversed an earlier rise, only to slump sharply just before 8am ET, the US dollar surges as the world remembers just what the flight to safety currency is (the basket case of a currency that is the Japanese yen tumbled to 148, the lowest in almost two months). Commodities are largely flat; Brent crude pared an advance of as much as 5.7% to about 1.2%, trading below $78 a barrel as the market took Iran’s lack of immediate retaliation as signs of capitulation. US economic data slate includes June manufacturing and services PMI (9:45am) and May existing home sales (10am). Powell testifies in the House of Representatives Tuesday, Senate Wednesday

In premarket trading, Mag7 stocks are mixed (Tesla +0.5%, Meta -0.2%, Alphabet -0.2%, Amazon -0.3%, Microsoft -0.3%, Apple -0.3%, Nvidia -0.9%). US energy and defense stocks are higher in premarket trading with markets awaiting Iran’s reaction to US strikes on its nuclear facilities and if it is going to disrupt oil supplies. Shares of airlines and cruise operators edged lower. Here are some other notable premarket movers: 

• AST SpaceMobile Inc. (ASTS) shares fell 3% in premarket trading after Scotiabank cut its recommendation on the space broadband company to sector perform from sector outperform.
• Advanced Micro Devices Inc. shares (AMD) are up 0.4% in premarket trading, after Melius Research upgraded the chipmaker to buy from hold.
• Circle Internet Group (CRCL) is set to extend gains for a third consecutive session, rising 6.3% in premarket trading, after the US Senate passed stablecoin legislation last week.
• Dow Inc. shares (DOW) are down 1.8% in premarket trading, after BMO Capital Markets downgraded the chemical company to underperform from market perform.
• Estee Lauder (EL) rises 1.8% in US premarket trading after Deutsche Bank upgrades the cosmetics company to buy from hold due to increasing evidence that the firm is diversifying beyond China for future growth.
• Fiserv shares (FI) jump 3.9% in premarket trading Monday after the Wall Street Journal reported the financial-technology company’s plans to launch a stablecoin and platform for its clients.
• Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) shares crater 18% after Novo Nordisk ended its partnership with the telehealth platform that has been selling compounded obesity drugs
• Li Auto ADRs (LI) gain 4.6% in US premarket trading after the Chinese electric-vehicle maker said it will introduce a new electric SUV in September.
• Northern Trust Corp. shares (NTRS) gain 4.6% in premarket trading on Monday after the Wall Street Journal reported that Bank of New York Mellon had approached the company in recent days to express interest in a possible merger.
• Tesla (TSLA) is outperforming fellow Magnificent 7 stocks in premarket trading on Monday, rising 0.5%, after launching its much-anticipated driverless taxi service to a handful of riders on Sunday.

US equity futures staged a powerful rebound from overnight lows but remained on edge even as brent crude pared an advance of as much as 5.7% to about 1.2%, trading below $78 a barrel. The dollar strengthened 0.5% against a basket of currencies, advancing against all Group-of-10 peers as traders hedged against the risk of further oil price gains.

Oil, which has risen more than 12% since the onset of the Israel-Iran conflict, remained the central focus as any interruption to traffic through the Strait of Hormuz raises the specter of a spike in energy prices and higher inflation. While Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the country reserved all options for a response, there haven’t yet been any signs of disruption to physical flows.

“Markets are judging that the response may not be quite as dramatic, because Iran would risk antagonizing others who are not yet pulled in,” John Bilton, head of multi-asset strategy at JPMorgan Asset Management, told Bloomberg TV. The market is “absorbing a geopolitical event that is going on and judging that this does not, on face value, change the direction of travel.”

Sure enough, the market agrees and its reaction has been generally muted since Israel’s initial assault on Iran this month. Even after falling for the past two weeks, the S&P 500 is only about 3% below its all-time high from February.  Additional losses may be contained, as some investors had already positioned for an escalation in the conflict. Equity exposure among fund managers has been trimmed while stocks are no longer in overbought territory.
The market’s sanguine reaction offers investors an opportunity to reduce their risk exposure, noted Mohit Kumar, chief European strategist at Jefferies International. 

“We don’t see a closure of the Hormuz strait but see possibility of disruption,” Kumar said. “Our base case would be a period of uncertainty lasting a few weeks, but without a sharp escalation.”

Yet while the market reaction to the US strike on Iranian nuclear facilities is muted so far, a lot could happen from here. For traders, all eyes are on oil prices and whether shipping through the key Strait of Hormuz will be disrupted. If Iran was to close the Strait of Hormuz, “a stagflation scenario with lower growth and higher inflation due to elevated oil prices is the main risk for markets,” said Ulrich Urbahn, head of multi-asset strategy and research at Berenberg. “It would also curb the abilities of central banks to support markets.”

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 also tried to stage a recovery, and failed trading down almost 1% last at its worst levels. Tech, construction and energy are among the few rising sectors while industrial goods and services and chemicals are the worst performers. Here are some of the biggest movers on Monday:

• Energy stocks gain while airlines fall as unprecedented US airstrikes on Iran set traders and governments worldwide on edge. Some international airlines including British Airways canceled some flights to the Persian Gulf.
• UCB gains as much as 5.2% after Morgan Stanley upgraded the Belgian biotech to overweight, saying the year-to-date pullback offers a “uniquely compelling entry point” and seemingly obscures strong fundamentals.
• Saab shares drop as much as 4.3%, Hensoldt falls as much as 6.9% and Renk tumbles as much as 7.6% after Citi downgraded the three European defense stocks to sell, saying the NATO summit is probably as good as it will get for them in terms of spending.
• Air Liquide falls as much as 2.4%, the most since April 9, after BofA Global Research cut its recommendation on the French industrial gas firm to underperform.
• Novo Nordisk shares slip as much as 3.5% after researchers presented new data on the Danish drugmaker’s next-generation obesity shot CagriSema.

Earlier in the session, Asian equities fell to a three-week low, led by technology shares, as US strikes on three Iranian nuclear sites dented risk appetite. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined as much as 1.3% to the lowest since June 3, with TSMC, Sony and Samsung Electronics contributing the most to the drop. Share indexes in Taiwan, Philippines and Indonesia retreated more than 1% each. Stocks in Asia have recently lost momentum after a strong start to June, as investors scale back their risk exposure amid rising tensions in the Middle East. Market participants are closely watching for Iran’s response after it warned of retaliation while Israel showed no signs of easing its offensive. “Obviously concern levels are heightened but we are unlikely to get huge disruptions from the weekend’s events on financial markets barring new entrants into the conflict,” said Matthew Haupt, portfolio manager at Wilson Asset Management. “I think markets are awaiting further developments in the Middle East and very much on the sell track before this unresolved risk.”

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index extends its climb to 0.5%. The Japanese yen and kiwi dollar are the weakest of the G-10 currencies, falling 1.2% each. The Swiss franc has been the most resilient against the greenback with only a 0.1% decline.

In rates, treasuries are reversed their earlier drop, with US 10-year yields dropping 2 bps to 4.35%. Bunds are a touch lower, but underperforming their UK counterparts. Both showed little reaction to regional PMI data  — euro-area composite PMI came in slightly below the median estimate while the UK reading was slightly ahead of the consensus.  Ahead this week are 2-, 5- and 7-year note auctions beginning Tuesday and Fed Chair Powell’s semiannual congressional testimony, also Tuesday.

In commodities, WTI crude oil futures gapped 4.6% higher at the open in anticipation of Iran’s response, rising to $78 the highest since January, but have pared the gain to about 1%. Spot gold is little changed near $3,368/oz.

Looking at today’s calendar, US economic data slate includes June manufacturing and services PMI (9:45am) and May existing home sales (10am).Fed speakers include Governor Bowman (10am), Chicago’s Goolsbee (1:10pm), New York’s Williams and Governor Kugler (2:30pm). Powell testifies in the House of Representatives Tuesday, Senate Wednesday

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini -0.1%,
• Nasdaq 100 mini -0.2%,
• Russell 2000 mini -0.2%
• Stoxx Europe 600 -0.8%,
• DAX -0.2%,
• CAC 40 -0.2%
• 10-year Treasury yield -3 basis points at 4.35%
• VIX +0.2 points at 20.82
• Bloomberg Dollar Index +0.5% at 1217.7
• euro -0.5% at $1.1461
• WTI crude +0.4% at $74.15/barrel

Top Overnight News

• When the dust settled on Iran’s nuclear sites on Sunday after a US bombing raid that President Donald Trump said had “totally obliterated” its atomic program, one thing was still missing: its highly enriched uranium, which international authorities haven’t seen for more than a week.
• Oil erased earlier gains as fears began to fade of an immediate disruption to supplies from the Middle East, following US strikes on key Iranian nuclear sites.
• The euro area’s private sector barely grew in June, remaining in limbo as erratic US trade policy and geopolitical conflicts leave companies in the dark on what’s next.
• Japan will reduce its issuance of super-long bonds starting in July, taking a step to calm a bond market rattled by recent surges in yields.
• The UK private sector expanded at a marginally faster pace in June, helping ease worries of an economic contraction in the second quarter, according to a closely watched survey.
• A UK agency set up to kick-start the country’s municipal bond scene has closed to new business, abandoning a decade-long push to emulate vibrant markets in the US and Europe.

Israel/Iran

• US President Trump confirmed the launch of “Operation Midnight Hammer”, which involved targeted strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. The operation used 125 aircraft, including seven B-2 bombers, alongside submarine-launched Tomahawk cruise missiles. Fourteen GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators (“bunker busters”) were deployed to penetrate deeply buried targets, notably Fordow.
• Satellite imagery shows significant damage at all facilities. Trump described it as a joint effort with Israel.
• IAEA say the damage assessment is pending; no signs of radiation leak.
• In retaliation, Iran’s parliament has approved the closure of the Strait of Hormuz after the US launched strikes against the country’s nuclear facilities. Iran’s security body will make the final decision on whether to proceed with the plan, state television reported.
• Iran retaliated by missile strikes on Israel. Has said future action could target over 20 US bases or naval assets. Iran’s Military Central Command says powerful operations with heavy consequences for the US are to be expected. US entering the conflict expands the list of legitimate targets for Iran.
• The European morning has seen a slew of geopolitical updates (see section below). Some additional USD strength on: an Iranian provincial official says Israel is targeting the Fordow nuclear facility, via Tasnim. Israel struck Fordow’s access road, to prevent certain elements from approaching the area, according to Journalist Stein.

Trade/Tariffs

• Japan scrapped a planned US meeting after Washington demanded higher defence spending, according to FT sources on Friday. US Secretary of State Rubio and Defence Secretary Hegseth had been scheduled to meet Japan’s Defence Minister Nakatani and Foreign Minister Iwaya in Washington on 1 July. Tokyo cancelled the meeting after the US requested Japan raise its defence spending target to 3.5%, up from an earlier request of 3%.
• US President Trump said on Friday that it looks like the US would make trade deals with India and Pakistan, according to Reuters.
• Japanese, South Korean, New Zealand, and Australian leaders will meet US President Trump at NATO, according to Nikkei.
• IMF Managing Director Georgieva said global growth was forecast to slow down but no recession yet; IMF forecasts to be released in July, according to Bloomberg TV.
• Japanese PM Ishiba is reportedly planning to skip NATO attendance, according to Kyodo.
• Fed’s Barkin (2027 voter) on Friday said he sees no rush to cut interest rates and is not ready to dismiss the inflation risk from tariffs. He stated that a spike in inflation could not be ignored if it occurred, noting that price indices remained above target. He added that there was nothing urgent in the data warranting a rate cut at this point, with the job market and consumption holding up. 
• Fed’s Daly (2027 voter) on Friday said things were balanced and suggested looking more to the fall, rather than July, for a possible rate cut, in a CNBC interview. She stated that the economy and policy are currently in a good place, and concerns about tariffs on inflation were not as large as when they were first announced. Daly noted it was great news that inflation continued to decline. She said that without tariffs, the Fed would be considering rate normalisation, but they needed to continue monitoring policies going forward. 

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded lower with sentiment hit after weekend developments which saw the US carry out missile strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities in a surprise move. ASX 200 declined 0.8% in tandem with broader sentiment, with participants overlooking the improvement in Flash PMIs. Nikkei 225 fell 0.5%, though losses were somewhat cushioned by a weaker JPY on account of the stronger USD, with regional Flash PMIs largely shrugged off. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to broader regional losses, with the focus largely on geopolitics. Chinese sentiment was further hampered by Friday’s WSJ report that the US is reportedly preparing action targeting allies’ chip plants in China.

Top Asian News

• Chinese cross-border payment stocks rise after China and Hong Kong launched a fast cross-border payment connect on June 22.
• Asian energy shares gain after a US attack on Iran’s three main nuclear sites boosted oil prices.
• Asian airline shares decline after crude oil prices surged following the US airstrikes on Iran over the weekend that targeted three nuclear facilities.
• Some shipping stocks in South Korea and China advance on speculation that tanker freight rates may rise following US air strikes on Iranian nuclear sites over the weekend.
• Asian defense stocks advance after the US launched strikes on three Iranian nuclear sites over the weekend.
• Macau casino operator shares decline after Morgan Stanley cut the industry’s Ebitda expectations by 3% and 4% for 2025 and 2026.
• Asia’s chip stocks decline after the Wall Street Journal reported a US Commerce Department official has told top semiconductor companies he wants to revoke waivers they have used to access American technology in China.
• Shares in Asian gold miners follow gains in bullion as investors buy haven assets after the US joined Israel in its attack on Iran.

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.1%) opened lower across the board, as traders react to the surprise US attack on Iran. Although, it is worth noting that stocks have traded with an upward bias throughout the morning, with a handful of indices managing to climb into the positive territory. European sectors hold a negative bias, with only a handful of industries managing to hold afloat. Construction & Materials tops the pile, joined closely by Tech and then Energy; the latter of course buoyed by the upside in oil prices, sparked by the latest geopolitical flare ups.

Top European News

• EU HCOB Composite Flash PMI (Jun) 50.2 vs. Exp. 50.5 (Prev. 50.2); Services Flash PMI (Jun) 50.0 vs. Exp. 50.0 (Prev. 49.7); Manufacturing Flash PMI (Jun) 49.4 vs. Exp. 49.7 (Prev. 49.4)
• French HCOB Services Flash PMI (Jun) 48.7 vs Exp. 49.2 (Prev. 48.9); Manufacturing Flash PMI (Jun) 47.8 vs Exp. 50.0 (Prev. 49.8); Composite Flash PMI (Jun) 48.5 vs Exp. 49.3 (Prev. 49.3)
• German HCOB Manufacturing Flash PMI (Jun) 49.0 vs. Exp. 48.7 (Prev. 48.3); Services Flash PMI (Jun) 49.4 vs. Exp. 47.5 (Prev. 47.1); Composite Flash PMI (Jun) 50.4 vs. Exp. 49.0 (Prev. 48.5)
• UK Flash Services PMI (Jun) 51.3 vs. Exp. 51.5 (Prev. 50.9); Manufacturing PMI (Jun) 47.7 vs Exp. 46.6 (Prev. 46.4); Composite PMI (Jun) 50.7 vs. Exp. 50.5 (Prev. 50.3)

FX

• DXY is on a firmer footing this morning, with the Greenback receiving haven inflows following the latest surprise US attack on Iran. On that, the US launched “Operation Midnight Hammer,” striking Iran’s nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. Following the attack, US President Trump called the impact an “obliteration”, adding that the strike would be a one-time action, with Washington still seeking diplomacy. Iran’s Parliament has endorsed closing the Strait of Hormuz, but still awaits approval. Renewed Dollar strength on reports that Iran is targeting Fordow nuclear facility, taking the index to fresh highs of 99.42.
• EUR is modestly lower vs the Dollar today, and currently trades in a 1.1454-1.1521 range; the low for today is in close proximity to its 21 DMA at 1.14428. It is worth noting that whilst the losses in the European morning are fairly modest in nature, the Single-Currency was one of the worst performers as markets reopened. This is likely in part due to the bloc’s heavy reliance on oil through the Strait of Hormuz, and therefore the potential inflationary impacts. Geopolitics aside, the EUR has had a number of EZ PMI figures to digest; the EZ-wide figure itself was mixed and had little impact on price action.
• JPY benefited from the geopolitical risk premium at the reopen, but this soon reversed thanks to the stronger Dollar and amid the latest geopolitical implications on higher oil prices. As it stands, the JPY is the clear G10 underperformer. The currency was little moved by the region’s PMI report, which showed an improvement across all components, with the Manufacturing climbing into expansionary territory. USD/JPY has surged past its 100 DMA (146.80) to currently trade towards its session high at 147.95.
• GBP is faring better vs peers but still lower vs the Dollar. Currently trades in a 1.3371-1.3448 range; the trough for today resides a little below its 50 DMA at 1.3402. UK PMIs only notable release for the day; Services printed in-line whilst the Manufacturing metric topped the most optimistic of analyst expectations. There was some modest two-way action in Cable, but it ultimately resided within the day’s range.
• Antipodeans were swept away by the broader risk-off sentiment, following the surprise US attack on Iranian nuclear facilities. As sentiment seemingly improves across the equities complex, no real follow-through to the Aussie or Kiwi, where they still reside towards the foot of the G10 pile.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1710 vs exp. 7.1914 (prev. 7.1695)
• Indonesian central bank said it is to continue intervening in offshore onshore NDF spot FX markets to ensure the rupiah reflects fundamentals, according to an official.

Fixed Income

• USTs began the week with gains, gapping higher from Friday’s 110-31+ close by a handful of ticks and then extended slightly further to a 111-04 peak, a tick higher than Friday’s best. Upside a function of the benchmarks trading as a haven, given the significant geopolitical escalation of Trump striking Iranian nuclear sites; details on the feed/see Commodities. However, the upside proved limited as while Iran has spoken about extensive retaliation they are yet to do anything particularly significant. The nation continues to strike Israel with missiles, and while Iran’s parliament has approved closing the Strait of Hormuz, the security body is yet to order it. Furthermore, no reported action against US-specific assets, though Iran says all options are on the table. Geopols aside, the docket today is busy with several Fed speakers due and Flash PMIs for June; the latter expected to fall slightly from the prior.
• Bunds follow the above. Got as high as 130.92 overnight, stopping shy of the figure and by extension Friday’s 131.33 best. The limited move and subsequent modest pressure appear, primarily, to be a function of the inflationary implications of higher energy prices. Focus has been on PMIs; the French figures came in softer than expected across the board, sparking modest upside. Thereafter, Germany’s figures printed firmer than forecast and weighed slightly on EGBs. Finally, the EZ figure was softer than forecast, but with no real follow-through seen. More recently Bunds have moved back towards those overnight highs, to make an incremental fresh high at 130.93.
• Gilts, as above, lifted after opening but has been drifting since in-fitting with peers. Went as low as 92.25, moved lower on the German Flash PMIs, but is now holding basically at the unchanged mark, just below the 92.70 peak. Geopolitics and the inflationary implications of the energy move aside, focus on PMIs. The UK Flash figures came in mixed, with Manufacturing and Composite better than forecast, though the Services figure was as expected. No real move to the data.

Commodities

• Brent gapped higher by around 5.5% as markets reopened, in an initial reaction the US’ attack on Iranian nuclear facilties. Though gains have since almost entirely pared, with the complex now essentially flat. The reveral could be attributed to; 1) flows via the Strait of Hormuz are yet to be impacted and companies including Hapag-Lloyd and Maersk continue to sail through the Strait, 2) An element of profit taking and TPs hit ahead of the potential Iranian response, 3) Market contacts have suggested OPEC+ have not had any calls, with no talks of an emergency meeting yet amid no current signs of supply disruptions. Brent Aug’25 currently trades around USD 77.20/bbl.
• Spot gold is lower, reversing opening gains in tandem with crude. Downside which comes alongside the firmer Dollar and broader improvement in market sentiment. The haven has gradually waned since the open, reaching highs of USD 3380/oz, and at the time of writing, testing the USD 3,360/oz mark, now looking to its 21 DMA just ten dollars below.
• Copper is marginally in the red, initially dented by the threat of oil supply risks (China the largest buyer of Iranian oil), but given the crude reversal, the red metal is faring better. The aforementioned USD, benefitting from haven flows, is also weighing on the industrial metal. Currently towards the lower end of a quiet USD 9,608-9,679/t range.

Geopolitics: Israel-Iran

• Iran’s Military Central Command says powerful operations with heavy consequences for the US are to be expected. US entering the conflict expands the list of legitimate targets for Iran.
• Iran’s Army Chief says they are now free to take action against US interests, via IRNA.
• Iranian city Karaj has been targeted by Israeli missiles, according to Fars; reports of large explosions being heard in Tehran.
• Russian Kremlin says President Putin will receive the Iranian Foreign Minister later today. Communication channels remain open with the US, a call between US President Trump and Putin can be “quickly organised if required”; no current plans for a call. Iran can share its proposals later today.

US Strike Operations

• US President Trump confirmed the launch of “Operation Midnight Hammer”, which involved targeted strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. The operation used 125 aircraft, including seven B-2 bombers, alongside submarine-launched Tomahawk cruise missiles.
• Fourteen GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators (“bunker busters”) were deployed to penetrate deeply buried targets, notably Fordow.
• Satellite imagery confirmed significant infrastructure damage at all three nuclear sites, with Fordow showing six fresh craters.
• All targets were reportedly struck between 23:40 BST (Saturday) and 00:05 BST (Sunday). Iran’s air defence systems failed to detect or intercept the incoming attacks.
• Trump described the attack as a joint effort with Israel, saying they “worked as a team like perhaps no team has ever worked before.”
• Axios quoted officials as saying that Whitkov told Araqchi during the operation that “the strike is only once.” He confirmed that Washington was still seeking a diplomatic solution and wanted Tehran to return to negotiations.
• US President Trump did not want to continue striking Iran, but he would do so if US bases were targeted, according to Sky News Arabia citing Axios.
• US President Trump reportedly directed staff to announce a two-week window in order to conceal plans for the Iran attack, according to CNN sources.

Damage Assessment & Nuclear Risk

• IAEA Director General Grossi said craters are visible at Fordow, Natanz suffered direct hits, and tunnel entrances at Isfahan were struck. Full underground damage assessment remains pending. A special IAEA board meeting is scheduled for Monday.
• Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Gen. Dan Caine stated it is “too early” to assess whether Iran’s nuclear capability was fully neutralised.
• US intelligence officials have raised concerns Iran may have relocated enriched uranium stockpiles in advance.
• US Secretary of State Rubio urged Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpiles, claiming they remain buried under Isfahan and likely were not moved before the strikes.
• The IAEA reported no signs of a radiation leak. Saudi Arabia’s Nuclear and Radiological Regulatory Authority confirmed no radioactive effects were detected in Gulf states.

Strait of Hormuz & Oil Flow Threat

• The Iranian parliament has approved the closure of the Strait of Hormuz after the US launched strikes against the country’s nuclear facilities. Iran’s security body will make the final decision on whether to proceed with the plan, state television reported.
• US Secretary of State Rubio warned such a move would be “economic suicide” for Iran but remains a credible escalation vector.
• NOTE: Market contacts have suggested OPEC+ have not had any calls, with no talks of an emergency meeting yet amid no signs of supply disruptions, yet.

Iranian Military Response

• Iran launched retaliatory missile strikes on Tel Aviv and Haifa, Israel, resulting in at least 86 reported injuries.
• Iranian officials have warned that future actions could target over 20 US bases or naval assets in the region.
• Iran stated that its military would determine the timing, nature, and scale of its response, according to Reuters.
• Signs have emerged of Iran‑backed militias preparing to attack US bases in Iraq and Syria, according to Sky News Arabia citing The New York Times.
• Iranian air defences reportedly activated in Isfahan, targeting hostile Israeli aircraft.
• Iranian forces reported that Israeli airstrikes killed nine personnel — seven Revolutionary Guards and two conscripts — in Yazd province.

Iranian Messaging

• Iran is weighing its response — with its Foreign Minister saying “all options” are on the table after Washington proved “they only understand the language of threat and force”, according to CNN.
• Supreme Leader Khamenei warned that US strikes would “result in irreparable damage” to the US.
• Iran’s President Pezeshkian warned of a “more devastating” retaliation if Israel’s bombing campaign continued.
• Iranian regime sources denied any major nuclear material loss from the strikes, implying the sites had been pre-emptively evacuated.
• Iran’s Crisis Management HQ stated there was “no danger” to civilians near Fordow; state media reported the site had “long been evacuated.”
• An adviser to Khamenei claimed Iran still retains its enriched uranium, indigenous nuclear knowledge, and political will, despite facility damage.
• Iran’s Foreign Minister condemned the strikes as a violation of international law and the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
• The Iranian Atomic Energy Organisation called the attacks “a barbaric act” breaching international law.

International Reactions

• The UN Security Council held an emergency meeting at 20:00 BST on Sunday in response to the strikes. US Ambassador Dorothy Shea defended the operation; China, Russia, and Pakistan called for an immediate ceasefire and accused the US of breaching the UN Charter.
• The UN and EU called for de-escalation, with Secretary-General António Guterres warning of a “dangerous escalation.”
• The E3 (UK, France, Germany) released a joint statement urging Iran to return to nuclear negotiations and warning against further destabilising actions.
• Gulf Arab states including Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait condemned the US strikes, calling for restraint and diplomatic resolution.
• UK PM Keir Starmer backed the US strike, describing it as a response to a “grave threat.”
• Israeli PM Netanyahu praised the US action, calling it a display of “awesome and righteous might” that could “change history.”
• Saudi Arabia, Oman, and India expressed concern and urged all sides to pursue diplomatic solutions.

US Political & Legal Fallout

• Congressional response to the strikes was mixed. Most Republicans expressed support, with Senator Ted Cruz praising the operation. However, some dissent emerged within the party, notably from Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, who stated, “Not our fight.” Democrats strongly criticised the move; Senator Bernie Sanders labelled it “grossly unconstitutional” and accused President Trump of bypassing Congress.
• US Department of Justice said President Trump had the authority under Article II to order Iran strikes without congressional approval, but a prolonged conflict might require Congress’s involvement, according to CNN.
• US President Trump to meet with National Security team at 13:00 EDT/18:00 BST on Monday, according to Bloomberg.

Trump on Truth Social

• US President Trump posted on Sunday “The damage to the Nuclear sites in Iran is said to be “monumental.” The hits were hard and accurate. Great skill was shown by our military. ” Trump added that “if the current Iranian Regime is unable to MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN, why wouldn’t there be a Regime change”, and that “The GREAT B-2 pilots have just landed, safely, in Missouri.”
• President Trump later posted “Monumental Damage was done to all Nuclear sites in Iran, as shown by satellite images. Obliteration is an accurate term!… The biggest damage took place far below ground level. Bullseye!!!”

US Homeland Security & Domestic Threats

• The US is on high alert for Iranian-backed terrorist attacks, especially in the 48 hours following the strike. FBI, DHS, and local law enforcement have increased security presence at places of worship in major cities including New York and Washington, DC.
• DHS warned of a heightened domestic threat environment, including potential for cyberattacks or lone-wolf incidents inspired by religious rulings.
• The White House is monitoring potential Iranian sleeper cells inside the US.
• VP Vance stated the administration is watching known terror watch list individuals who entered during the Biden era.

Regional Axis Responses/Headlines

• Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi arrived in Moscow to consult with President Putin. Russia condemned the US strikes as a “flagrant violation of international law.”
• Iran’s Foreign Minister Araqchi said he would discuss tackling common challenges and threats with Russian President Putin, according to Iranian news agency SNN.
• Hezbollah condemned the US strikes, calling them a violation of international and humanitarian law and warned the conflict could spiral globally.
• A Yemeni Houthi official warned retaliation for the US attack was “only a matter of time.”

US Event Calendar

• 9:45 am: Jun P S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI, est. 51, prior 52
• 9:45 am: Jun P S&P Global U.S. Services PMI, est. 52.9, prior 53.7
• 9:45 am: Jun P S&P Global U.S. Composite PMI, est. 52.1, prior 53
• 10:00 am: May Existing Home Sales, est. 3.95m, prior 4m
• 10:00 am: May Existing Home Sales MoM, est. -1.25%, prior

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

“Within the next two weeks” became within two days as the US launched air strikes on Iran nuclear sites over the weekend. As we write this morning Brent crude is trading +1.92% higher at $78.49/bbl, having been as high as $81.40 at the Asia open, the USD is +0.32%, and S&P (-0.30%) and Nasdaq (-0.39%) futures are modestly lower. 10yr USTs are +1.6bps with the inflationary impact of higher oil outweighing safe haven demand for now. So overall a pretty muted response from markets so far.

In terms of what this all means for markets going forward, its really all about whether the Iranian regime weaponises oil, and in particular whether they seek to close the Strait of Hormuz where over 20% of the world’s oil flows daily. Last Monday we highlighted DB Michael Hsueh’s work (link here) calculating that such a closure could see a spike up in Oil to around $120/bbl. For what it’s worth, Polymarket puts the odds of closure before July at 32% at the moment, up from around 10% on Friday but well below the 52% yesterday afternoon London time. Having been around $68/bbl before concerns over potential Israel’s strikes against Iran emerged, around a third probability puts oil at around $85/bbl. So perhaps financial markets are pricing in a lower probability of a closure. All very back of the envelope of course.

In terms of the economic impact, the US has turned into a net energy exporter in the last few years so any negative impact would be through deteriorating financial conditions or through higher for longer rates as the Fed have another reason to delay cuts. For Europe though, the impact is potentially more serious. Every $10/bbl increase in oil has the potential to add a quarter of a percent to HICP within a quarter and if sustained 0.4pp within a year. Growth could be lowered by around 0.25pp if such an increase was sustained. See our European economists’ chart of the week here from Friday looking at which countries would be most exposed.

Aside from closing the Strait of Hormuz, Iran could target other energy infrastructure in the Middle East or strike US assets, which could then lead to further escalation, including if Israel or US were to target Iran’s oil export facilities. So far Iranian comments have been ambiguous on the nature of any retaliation, with Iran’s President saying the US “must receive response for their aggression” and its UN envoy speaking of a “proportionate response”. US officials yesterday mostly sought to portray the strikes as one-off aimed at ending Iran’s nuclear progamme, with Secretary of State Rubio saying that the US was ready to meet with Iran. However, last night Trump alluded to the possibility of regime change, posting: “It’s not politically correct to use the term, “Regime Change,” but if the current Iranian Regime is unable to MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN, why wouldn’t there be a Regime change???”

Rounding out Asian markets, the Nikkei (-0.14%) has recovered from nearly a percent down near the open, helped by stronger-than-expected manufacturing PMI data (details below). The S&P/ASX 200 (-0.49%) is also declining, despite slightly positive PMI data for June. The KOSPI (-0.52%) is also a bit lower along with the Hang Seng (-0.17%). The Shanghai Composite (+0.15%) is bucking the regional trend.

The Japanese au Jibun manufacturing PMI increased to 50.4 in the first three weeks of June, on track to record its first positive month since May 2024, and showing a significant rise from the 49.4 recorded in May. The au Jibun services PMI rose to 51.5 in June from 51.0 in the previous month, and the composite PMI improved from 50.2 to 51.4, marking the highest reading since February.

The Australian S&P Global PMI composite increased from 50.5 to 51.2. The PMI Services rose from 50.6 to 51.3, while PMI manufacturing remained stable at 51.0.

There’s a lot going on this week but the latest developments in the Israel-Iran conflict will clearly dominate, especially now the US is involved. However against this backdrop, the NATO summit will be held in The Hague tomorrow and Wednesday. It seems all members will agree to a 5% of GDP defence spending plan apart from Spain who will get an exemption. The latest draft appears to be delaying the full spending spree until 2035 rather than the initial 2032 that Secretary General Rutte was aiming towards. Note 3.5% would be core military spending, and 1.5% would be defence related areas such as infrastructure and cybersecurity.

Elsewhere Fed’s Chair Powell’s semi-annual testimonies to Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday are usually key events but note that this comes shortly after last week’s FOMC so maybe they’ll be less additive information this time. There is also lots of Fedspeak this week that will be in the day-by-day calendar but Waller speaking again today will be of note given his dovish speech on Friday where he all but confirmed that he was one of the two members who have three cuts this year in the dots. He didn’t rule out a July cut and markets are trying to handicap what it would mean if he became the next Fed chair.

Staying in the US, the Senate will continue its mark-up of the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” (OBBBA) with potential for a vote by the end of the week. However, several substantial policy debates remain – namely, Medicaid, SALT cap reform and repeal of clean energy tax credits. Though many details remain in flux, from what our economists know at present, their expectations for 6.5 – 7.0% deficits as a share of GDP over the next three years has remained largely unchanged (see “US Economic Perspectives: US outlook: Easy come, easy go, little high, little low“).

Outside of the big NATO meeting, China will hold its NPC Standing Committee meeting from tomorrow through to Friday. There will also be an EU-Canada summit today, with Canada’s Prime Minister Carney attending. Finally, EU leaders will hold a summit in Brussels on Thursday/Friday.

In terms of the other highlights we have preliminary June PMIs, US existing home sales and Lagarde speaking today; US consumer confidence, the German Ifo and Canadian CPI tomorrow; US new home sales, Japanese PPI, Australia CPI and a 5yr UST auction on Wednesday; final US Q1 GDP, US durable goods, the Chicago Fed, the US trade balance, jobless claims, and a 7 yr UST auction on Thursday; and core US PCE, US personal spending/income, Chinese Industrial profits, Tokyo CPI, and French and Spanish CPI. There are more in the calendar at the end but of these the core US PCE is the most interesting.

Recapping last week now and the main story was the Israel-Iran conflict and the lingering threat of US strikes. This meant that Brent crude saw a weekly rise of +3.75% to $77.01/bbl, though it did ease (-2.33% Friday) after hitting a four-month high of $79.04/bbl at its intraday peak on Thursday. The dollar index (+0.53%) rose last week, as geopolitical volatility in the Middle East unlocked the dollar’s safe haven role. Gold actually struggled, sinking -1.86% over the week (-0.07% on Friday) to $3,368/oz, but our commodities analyst suggests that based on historical experience, gold will likely be able to rebuild some of its risk premium before the conflict is resolved.

With the constant newsflow around whether Trump would strike Iran, markets fluctuated over the course of the week with the S&P 500 ultimately closing marginally in the red (-0.15%, -0.22% on Friday), while the NASDAQ (+0.21%, -0.51% on Friday) posted a narrow gain. Friday’s underperformance in tech stocks came amid news that the US may potentially revoke waivers for allies with semiconductor plants in China, with the Mag 7 falling -0.98% (-0.38% on the week). European markets struggled more amid the backdrop of higher oil prices, with STOXX 600 (-1.54%, +0.13% Friday), CAC 40 (-1.24%, +0.48% on Friday) and DAX (-0.70%, +1.27% Friday) all lower on the week despite a partial recovery on Friday as prospects for imminent US strikes against Iran declined.

Also, notable last week was the flurry of central bank decisions, with the Fed and BOE holding, whilst the Riksbank, Norges Bank and Swiss Bank each cut. In European sovereign bonds, yields on 10Y Bunds (-2.2bps), Gilts (-1.5bps) and OATs (-1.1bps) moved lower over the week.

The Fed press conference last Wednesday saw Chair Powell highlight the risks that the impact of tariffs on inflation could be more persistent, and that the Fed was “well positioned to wait to learn more.” That left investors with a sense that the Fed was in no hurry to rush rate cuts over the summer, with 20bps of cuts now priced in by the September meeting and 51bps by December. The 10yr Treasury yield ended the week -2.3bps lower at 4.38% (-1.5bps), with the modest rally supported by a flight to safe haven assets. Waller’s dovish remarks on Friday also helped a little.

By Alexandra Horwitz of The College Fix

Computer engineering grads face double the unemployment rate of art history majors, according to the most recent data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

The stats show art history majors have a 3 percent unemployment rate while computer engineering grads have a 7.5 percent unemployment rate. Computer science grads are in a similar boat, with a 6.1 percent rate.

The trend appears notable among STEM majors.

Graphic design is at 7.2 percent, chemistry at 6.1 percent and fine arts at 7.1 percent. Physics and sociology — which represent both sides of the spectrum — came in with similar numbers, with 7.8 percent and 6.7, respectively.

The highest on the list is anthropology at 9.4 percent. The lowest is nutritional sciences at .4 percent.

Asked to weigh in on the findings, economist Mark Perry, a University of Michigan Flint emeritus professor, said some STEM fields face a tougher labor market right now.

“One possible explanation for the higher-than-average jobless rates is that computer science majors face competition in the labor market from workers without a four-year degree but with work experience and from workers with a 2-year degree in computer science,” he told The College Fix.

He also said the required credentials, such as certifications, that computer science grads need to show future employers could be slowing things down for them.

Alex Beene, a financial literacy instructor for the University of Tennessee at Martin, expressed similar sentiments to Newsweek.

“Seeing such a high unemployment rate for majors like computer science may stun many Americans. After all, it’s been one of the most encouraged majors in recent years due to the unprecedented need in the field by many businesses,” he said.

“However, an abundance of those who major in a field doesn’t necessarily create more talent, and as many companies have developed more complex needs, they often want employees more skilled with a proven track record of success,” he said.

“As a result, some new graduates may find it more difficult than expected to obtain a job, especially in our current environment where some employers are scaling back.”

But not all STEM fields are struggling, Perry told The Fix.

“All of the engineering fields except industrial engineering (at 4.6%) have jobless rates at 2.4% or lower (civil, aerospace, mechanical, engineering technologies, chemical, electrical, general, etc.),” Perry said via email. “Engineering graduates also have very high salaries and very low rates of underemployment (about 20%).”

Georgetown University’s Professor Nicole Smith, chief economist of the university’s Center on Education and the Workforce, said that although STEM majors appear to be in high demand in the employment sector, their skill sets developed as undergraduates are less marketable than graduates of liberal arts schools.

Liberal arts majors, such as art history, have a “wider pool…they can sort their talent from,” Smith said. She said liberal arts majors can have “several other occupations [and] industries” to sell their skills within, an advantage not often available to STEM majors.

Perry noted the bank’s 2025 data relied on information from 2023, and the next set of data to be released in 2026 might paint a different picture.

“Labor market conditions are dynamic and change constantly, so the high jobless rates for computer science majors in 2023 may change,” he said.

Via Beef News,

A little-known provision in the Senate’s new reconciliation bill isn’t just about selling public land – it’s about stripping local communities of control. The provision bans states and counties from regulating “AI Systems” for a full decade, opening the door to opaque development far beyond housing. From data centers to deed-restricted zones, this bill rewrites who gets a say in the future of American land.

Yes, the Big Beautiful Bill includes language which impacts the Endangered Species Act (ESA)—and specifically its private right of action, a legal mechanism that allows activist nonprofits to stop land use dead in its tracks.

As the Senate debates a plan to sell off 3.3 million acres of federal land, this obscure provision has become the silent engine driving a radical shift in who controls America’s terrain.

But lawsuits are only half the story. The other half is what happens after the land is sold.

The other, bigger, concern nobody is addressing here is the private right of action that’s locked up state lands held in trust in ALL 50 states by radical environmental law firms like the Centers for Biological Diversity. CBD literally funds hundreds of far-left NGOs by suing…

— Breeauna Sagdal (@Breeauna9) June 19, 2025

A Two-Lane Lockdown

On one side, the Senate Reconciliation Bill (H.R.1) proposes to sell 2.2 to 3.3 million acres of BLM and Forest Service land—roughly 0.5% to 0.75% of Western federal holdings. But buried in the fine print is something more dangerous: the bill makes over 250 million acres eligible for private nomination, with no public input, no affordability mandates, and no obligation to reveal who buys the land.

In short, a technocrat’s wet dream when it comes to the infrastructure needed to fuel AI empires… 

Even more alarming is Section 43201(C) of the bill, which opponents have argued could prohibit state or local governments from regulating land use due to its overly broad language of “AI systems.”

Critics, including Beef Initiative policy analyst Breeauna Sagdal, note this section’s vague and expansive language could unintentionally nullify local regulations beyond AI, potentially affecting land use if AI tools are involved.

Local regulations that could be overridden include; laws addressing algorithmic bias in housing development, or criminal justice such as the Correctional Offender Management Profiling for Alternative Sanctions (COMPAS) system, or predictive policing systems—banned by many municipalities across the country. 

Others have argued that “A.I. Systems” could be interpreted by applicable administrative agencies (who serve at the pleasure of the President) to mean data centers or physical locations. At which point, local zoning would be impacted due to the preemption right granted to the federal government for ten years. 

The Big Beautiful Bill contains a provision banning state & local governments from regulating AI.

It’s worse than you think.

It would make it easier for corporations to get zoning variances, so massive AI data centers could be built in close proximity to residential areas. pic.twitter.com/w7pLJLq4nZ

— Thomas Massie (@RepThomasMassie) June 5, 2025

Said plainly: the bill doesn’t just sell the land. It preempts local control, creating a sizable gamble dependent upon who occupies the White House.

The Lawsuit Economy

On the other side of the legal equation are state lands held in trust—parcels granted to states to generate revenue for public schools, and offset taxes. Many of these parcels sit undeveloped, not because of market conditions, but because of Endangered Species Act (ESA) litigation.

Under Section 11(g) of the ESA, groups like the Centers for Biological Diversity (CBD) have been incentivized to sue state and federal agencies, making millions in the process, while strong-arming policy changes. 

A single lawsuit can halt any project—grazing, wildfire mitigation, even school infrastructure.

CBD claims a 93% success rate in court and funds operations in part through attorney fees recovered in those wins. Their litigation model has shaped national land use policy—and generated millions in the process.

Meanwhile, state lands held in trust go unmanaged. Fires spread. Revenues vanish. And the public never gets to vote on any of it.

This Isn’t Just a Land Sale. It’s a Lockout.

While the Senate bill is framed as a housing solution, the vast majority of BLM and Forest Service lands are located far from existing infrastructure. According to Headwaters Economics, only a small fraction—estimated at under 2%—is near communities where housing is in demand. Moreover, the bill includes no language requiring affordability, density, or public-serving outcomes, leaving open the potential for luxury or speculative development.

Combine that with Section 43201’s 10-year ban on state regulation of AI, potentially impacting local land use regulations, and various federal regulations related to land acquisition and eminent domain use, and a different picture emerges.

This isn’t about homes.
It’s about hubs.

Data hubs.
Energy hubs.
Logistics corridors.

The skeleton of future smart cities, quietly grafted onto formerly public land.

Legal Reform? Don’t Hold Your Breath.

In early 2025, the Trump administration proposed narrowing the ESA’s definition of “harm” to exclude habitat destruction—an attempt to reduce litigation chokepoints. But the core legal weapon—the private right of action—remains untouched. Only Congress can repeal it.

Until then, public lands remain open to two paths:

Locked up by lawsuits.
Or auctioned off beyond local control:

Either way, private property rights are at risk, despite online claims this is a solution to the 30×30 goals of Agenda 2030.

Glenn, as a rancher, I have some serious concerns about this section AND section 43201c—mainly for how the unelected bureaucrats will interpret this in the future.

1. The private right of action in the Endangered Species Act that has allowed radical far-left activists to lock…

— Breeauna Sagdal (@Breeauna9) June 20, 2025

Conclusion: A Pattern, Not a Policy

When land is frozen by lawsuits or stripped from local control after sale, what’s left is neither protection nor progress. It’s a transfer—of power, of access, of rights.

The ESA’s citizen suit provision, once a tool for public accountability, now acts as a blockade on state and rural land use. The Senate’s land sale bill, branded as a housing fix, hides within it the legal infrastructure of exclusion: top-down sales, bottom-up litigation, and the complete removal of local say.

It’s not just about the land.
It’s about who gets to pull the lever of control. 

A risky unknown, pending future election results. 

Via JonFleetwood.com,

New Freedom of Information (FOI) documents confirm what many long suspected: The UK government secretly used popular soap operas like EastEnders and Coronation Street to push vaccine propaganda during the pandemic, raising urgent questions about how much influence the state holds over British media, and how far officials are willing to go to manipulate public thought, opinion and behavior under the guise of public health.

The findings echo May 2021 revelations that scientists on the UK government’s behavioral advisory committee admitted they used fear-based “totalitarian” tactics to control public behavior during COVID-19, describing the approach as “unethical,” “dystopian,” and a form of “mind control.”

They also mirror an October 2024 U.S. House investigation that found the CDC and Biden administration used a $900 million COVID campaign to “manipulate Americans” with “deeply flawed” messaging, “overpromising” vaccines “without evidence,” and funding Big Tech companies to “track and monitor Americans.”

What other views and choices are being shaped today by government-scripted entertainment?

Ministers Pushed BBC & ITV to Insert Vaccine Storylines

“Ministers met television bosses during the pandemic to persuade them to push pro-vaccine storylines in soaps such as EastEnders and Coronation Street, it has emerged,” The Telegraph reported last week.

The effort was led by the Department for Culture, Media and Sport (DCMS), which held secret meetings with ITV, BBC, Channel 4 and others to coordinate “national unity programming.”

FOI documents show broadcasters were asked: “if there were plans to introduce health messages into soap stories.”

BBC committed to “report back re other shows” while ITV responded that “filming had now ceased,” but that “ITV have included voiceovers to episodes now to clarify govt messaging re social distancing.”

Early Meetings with ITV in February 2020

Redacted records show that as early as Feb. 2, 2020—more than a month before lockdown—officials met ITV chief Dame Carolyn McCall to “test the possibility” of inserting pro-vaccine messaging.

The government briefing stated:

“Since that meeting ITV have noticeably increased their engagement across DCMS and Whitehall; and recently officials at the Department of Health have been in touch with DCMS about potential assistance from ITV in relation to pro vaccine messaging. This meeting may offer an opportunity to test the possibility of this with them.”

Health Department Wanted Letters to Broadcasters

Documents confirm the Department of Health wanted to write directly to ITV to “include vaccine storylines in their soaps.”

But DCMS advised against it:

“Whilst we do not think it would be appropriate to write to ITV on this matter given the importance of broadcasters’ operational and editorial independence, you may wish to explore with them whether they already have plans to develop content related to this area.”

Officials also noted ITV was “planning soap storylines related to the environment and climate change and therefore they may be amenable to the idea of something similar in relation to vaccine messaging.”

BBC & Channel 4 Also Involved

In March and April 2020, then-Culture Secretary Oliver Dowden and then-Media Minister John Whittingdale met with BBC Director-General Tony Hall, ITV’s Dame Carolyn McCall, and Channel 4 CEO Alex Mahon.

Channel 4 agreed it would “reinforce Public Health England guidance” and target younger viewers through YouTube.

Mahon told officials:

“AM said they will consider how to spread message through YouTube excerpts of news programmes (C4’s YouTube channel has attracted 100 million views) and through social media. Also C4 is considering filming broadcast messages from hosts and talent to reinforce messaging.”

Pro-Vaccine Propaganda Aired on EastEnders

“Pro-vaccine messaging did end up in soaps.”

In a 2021 episode of EastEnders: “Patrick Trueman told Suki Panesar he felt like he had ‘won the lottery’ after getting his second vaccination.”

During the same scene: “Karen Taylor was accused of being an ‘anti-vaxxer’ for worrying that they had developed the vaccine too quickly.”

Critics Blast State Interference in British Media

Sir David Davis MP condemned the effort:

“What this demonstrates is that during Covid, the government reduced the broadcasters to mere arms of the state.”

“Of course, it was important to tell the public about the efficacy and safety of vaccines, but the state should never resort to underhanded propaganda of this nature.”

Lord Frost added:

“If, as it seems, the government quietly worked behind the scenes with major broadcasters to shape opinions and compliance on their draconian Covid-19 measures, this is extremely worrying.”

“Actions like this blur the boundary between government, civil society, and private life. They risk undermining confidence in government messaging in the future, and border on the unethical in a free society.”

Injuries Acknowledged but Concerns Suppressed

“More than 17,500 Britons have applied to the Government’s vaccine damage payment scheme (VDPS) believing they or loved ones were injured by the jab.”

“Most of the successful vaccine harm claims relate to the AstraZeneca jab, which was found to cause vaccine-induced thrombocytopenia and thrombosis, a dangerous type of blood clotting which can be fatal.”

Dodsworth: ‘That’s Not Public Health, It’s Propaganda’

Author Laura Dodsworth said:

“The government was in close contact with broadcasters to ensure the ‘right’ messages made it into entertainment – that’s not public health, it’s propaganda.”

“Take EastEnders. Patrick and Suki dutifully pushed the jab, while ‘Karen’ (white, and literally named Karen) voiced concerns and was ridiculed. It was heavy-handed, awkward and divisive. Propaganda often works by polarisation: creating in-groups and out-groups to shut down debate. There’s a word for this: manipulation.”

Academics & Campaigners Warn of Collusion

Dr. Colin Alexander of Nottingham Trent University stated:

“What the FoI request information thus confirms is that broadcasters relinquished their primary democratic role of holding the powerful to account and instead became collusive with the official narrative.”

“This at a time when scrutiny and investigation ought to have been at its highest.”

Molly Kingsley of UsForThem added:

“This kind of brazen state interference with British media crosses multiple red lines.”

“It indicates that the state-led pandemic censorship operation extended beyond ‘merely’ social media, and it raises serious questions about the integrity of messages broadcast to the public during the pandemic.”

ITV & BBC Respond

ITV said:

“All of this was entirely editorially independent of the Government and any other body or interest group.”

A BBC spokesman said:

“The BBC is independent and makes its own editorial decisions. This does not mean that we cannot meet representatives from the government or from political parties, and, like other broadcasters, we do so.”

‘We’re Being Entertained Into Compliance’

Dodsworth concluded:

“There’s a growing trend of public policy delivered through storylines – we’re being entertained into compliance. What better to wash your brain with than with a soap?”

And if the government quietly weaponized entertainment to coerce pandemic compliance, how else is this machinery being used?

If vaccine propaganda was planted in prime time without public knowledge, what other narratives are now shaping public thought, behavior, and consent?