Authored by Matt Lamb via The College Fix,

A federal judge on Monday upheld the rule of law and the separation of powers amidst a lawsuit by the American Association of University Professors which sought to undermine the executive branch.

The AAUP, along with the American Federation of Teachers, sued the Trump administration for canceling federal grants to Columbia University over antisemitism concerns. The teachers’ unions were represented by a left-wing group called “Protect Democracy.”

However, the faculty unions should go back to school and learn about the executive branch and the separation of powers, as Judge Mary Kay Vyskocil gave them a lesson on “our democracy.”

The plaintiffs, who are not directly harmed at all by the decision, asked for a preliminary injunction against the funding cuts to Columbia.

Of course no university has a legal right to federal taxpayer dollars. But furthermore, as Judge Vyskocil explained, the unions cannot prove they are directly harmed.

President Trump nominated her to the Southern District of New York federal court in his first term with the backing of Democratic New York Senators Chuck Schumer and Kirsten Gillibrand.

Judge Vyskocil wrote:

With no apparent sense of irony, lawyers for an organization called ‘Protect Democracy’ insist that a district court judge should order the Executive Branch immediately to restore the flow of taxpayer dollars to an elite university, which funding Defendants represent is inconsistent with the priorities of the duly elected President of the United States. Our democracy cannot very well function if individual judges issue extraordinary relief to every plaintiff who clamors to object to executive action.

She pointed out the plaintiffs have not received the grants themselves from the federal government. Columbia, she notes, can sue, but they are not a plaintiff in this lawsuit.

The judge also ripped into the AAUP and the AFT for their “sensational rhetoric about the ‘transcendent value’ of academic freedom, and ‘the Trump administration’s’ effort to ‘control the thought’ of ‘faculty and students’ (though Plaintiffs do not purport to represent any students) by placing a ‘gun to the head’ of non-party Columbia University.”

The judge furthermore noted Columbia and the Trump administration are in talks to reach an agreement on antisemitism on campus. Yet, the AAUP is “inserting themselves into a quarrel.”

Since taking office, President Trump has sought to restore commonsense to the distribution of hundreds of billions of taxpayer dollars. He also is doing what he sees as the best way to protect Jewish students from antisemitic harassment on campus.

While opponents may argue that professors should not have grants taken away for unrelated campus activity, it is proper for the federal government to use the levers of money to effect change.

Thankfully, this judge stood up for “our democracy” against the attacks by the faculty unions to undermine Trump and his authority through the executive branch to pressure Columbia to make changes to protect all students.

Having been accused of being “stupid” and “too late”, Fed Chair Powell’s decision to hold rates (not cut as Trump is demanding), will likely prompt more abuse from The White House, especially as US macro data is significantly weakening.

And despite all the tariff derangement anxiety, the worse they expect is PCE at 3.1% this year before fading back next year…

In fact, Powell may have to explain why he cut rates by 50bps the last time the US Macro Surprise Index was this weak…

Source: Bloomberg

What’s different this time?

As Trump said: “I guess he’s a political guy…”

Let’s see if the reporters in the room are brave enough to ask.

Watch the press conference live here (due to start at 1430ET):

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Agency (SVR) warned that the Brits and Ukrainians are preparing two false flag scenarios in the Baltic Sea.

The first one would see Ukrainian-transferred Soviet/Russian torpedoes explode near a US ship there and a supposedly malfunctioning one will then be found to implicate Russia in the alleged attack

The second, meanwhile, will involve Ukrainian-transferred Soviet/Russian mines fished out of the Baltic Sea and presented as proof of a Kremlin plot to sabotage international shipping.

These perfidious provocations are being employed to manipulate Trump into escalating against Russia after Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth announced in mid-February that the US won’t extend Article 5 mutual defense guarantees to NATO countries’ troops that might deploy to Ukraine. That scenario was the initial one that was planned for getting him to pull out of talks with Putin and then double down on support for Ukraine, but his team preemptively scuttled it through Hegseth’s announcement.

That’s why efforts are now underway to organize a false flag attack against a US ship in the Baltic and/or frame Russia as a threat to international shipping through the fishing out of its mines there. The Baltic has already been a so-called “NATO lake” since even before Finland and Sweden’s joined NATO given their prior shadow membership in the bloc, however, so it’s unrealistic that Russia could really carry out either of these two operations undetected even if it wanted to.

Here are some background briefings:

* 11 March: “Russian Spies Warn That The UK Is Trying To Sabotage Trump’s Envisaged ‘New Détente’”

* 24 March: “Putin’s Senior Aide Patrushev Shared Some Updates About The Arctic & Baltic Fronts”

* 22 April: “Estonia Might Become Europe’s Next Trouble Spot”

* 1 June: “Russia’s Military Build-Up Along The Finnish Border Will Likely Be The New Normal”

* 3 June: “The Russian-Ukrainian Talks Are At An Impasse That Only The US Or Brute Force Can Break”

To summarize, they detail the contextual evolution of this scenario from SVR’s prior warnings of the UK’s intent to sabotage the Russian-US talks on Ukraine to the motives of regional actors (Estonia and Finland) in going along with this, ending with the diplomatic impasse that defines today’s state of affairs. About that, if the US doesn’t coerce Ukraine into the concessions that Russia demands for peace but also doesn’t wash its hands of this conflict, then it might very well double down on its involvement instead.

The reasonable speculation that Trump knew about Ukraine’s strategic drone strikes against Russia in advance coupled with the latest speculation that he deceived Iran with duplicitous diplomacy doesn’t do much to inspire confidence in him personally since he could possibly be in on these false flag plots too. Despite Putin’s bonhomie with Trump, which was recently expressed through their most recent call, some in Russia are beginning to suspect Trump of double-dealing.

It’s therefore imperative that he preemptively commit to not escalating against Russia if either of these two false flag scenarios transpire just like Hegseth preemptively averted the deployment of NATO countries’ troops to Ukraine (at least for now) by declaring that Article 5 won’t extend to them. It’s unclear whether Trump read SVR’s warning or if he can rely on his advisors to inform him (unless Putin told already him), however, so he might not even be aware of this and could thus be manipulated.

Authored by Joseph Lord via The Epoch Times,

President Donald Trump’s administration is considering substantially expanding travel restrictions to include nationals from 36 countries, adding to existing travel bans on 12 countries.

“The [State] Department has identified 36 countries of concern that might be recommended for full or partial suspension of entry if they do not meet established benchmarks and requirements within 60 days,” Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in an internal memo to American diplomats. A source familiar confirmed the memo, and said that discussions were ongoing.

Those 36 countries being considered, many of which are located in Africa, have been given until June 18 to respond before facing travel sanctions, the source said. These sanctions could include total bans, such as those already instituted on a dozen other countries, or they could include lesser restrictions.

The reasoning, according to the diplomatic memo, was that the countries being considered for a ban have demonstrated “a lack of a competent or cooperative government,” including failing to produce reliable and authentic identity documents and records. Rubio specifically listed “questionable security” around passports from targeted countries.

Some of the countries being considered have also reportedly been uncooperative in working with the federal government to facilitate the return of their nationals in the United States illegally.

The full list of countries being considered for restrictions include Angola, Antigua and Barbuda, Benin, Bhutan, Burkina Faso, Cabo Verde, Cambodia, Cameroon, Cote D’Ivoire, Democratic Republic of Congo, Djibouti, Dominica, Ethiopia, Egypt, Gabon, The Gambia, Ghana, Kyrgyzstan, Liberia, Malawi, Mauritania, Niger, Nigeria, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Sao Tome and Principe, Senegal, South Sudan, Syria, Tanzania, Tonga, Tuvalu, Uganda, Vanuatu, Zambia, and Zimbabwe.

The news drew some pushback from critics, who alleged that the list was targeting African countries unfairly.

Tammy Bruce, spokesperson for the State Department, rejected that this was the motive in comments during a June 17 press conference, saying that the primary motive of instituting new restrictions would be “protecting our nation’s citizens by upholding the highest standards of national security and public safety through our visa process.”

“The geo-position, the actual location of the country, is not a factor, or what continent that country is on,” Bruce said. “It’s about very specific aspects about whether or not the United States feels it can trust the information we rely on those countries, for to determine whether or not they’ll get a visa.”

Bruce said the administration wants to ensure that the visa adjudication process protects U.S. national security and public safety.

“That is, I think, a very low bar, and is a bar that every nation should be able to adopt to protect the national security and national interests of the United States and its people,” she said.

The government is assessing “other countries’ security capabilities, information sharing and identity management practices, exploitation of the U.S. visa system, such as overstay rates and failure to facilitate the repatriation of their removable nationals.”

The planned restrictions come as other nationals from 19 nations have already been restricted or banned from entering the United States under a June 4 presidential proclamation signed by Trump. That proclamation went into effect on June 9.

Countries currently facing total bans under Trump’s proclamation include Afghanistan, Chad, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Haiti, Iran, Libya, Burma (also known as Myanmar), the Republic of the Congo, Somalia, Sudan, and Yemen.

Seven other countries have partial travel sanctions, including Burundi, Cuba, Laos, Sierra Leone, Togo, Turkmenistan, and Venezuela.

Trump suspended the entry of individuals from those seven countries “as immigrants, and as nonimmigrants,” on B-1, B-2, B-1/B-2, F, M, and J visas, according to the directive. Additional countries will likely face similar restrictions under the administration’s current plans.

The travel ban results from a Jan. 20 executive order that Trump issued requiring the departments of State and Homeland Security and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence to compile a report on “hostile attitudes” toward the United States and whether entry from certain countries represented a national security risk.

The African Union Commission expressed concerns at the time about the “potential negative impact” of the move.

“The African Union Commission respectfully calls upon the U.S. administration to consider adopting a more consultative approach and to engage in constructive dialogue with the countries concerned,” the commission said in a statement.

Just hours before the Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged and, worse, telegraph a hawkish bias by indicating just one rate cut for the rest of 2025 (down from two) in its latest dot plot, the first since Liberation Day, President Trump leveled his latest broadside at Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

With markets and economists widely expecting the Fed to stand pat on rates, Trump acknowledged that, saying: “I don’t expect anything” but in his brief remarks at the White House, Trump also wondered aloud if he was “allowed to appoint myself” at the Fed, claiming he’d do a “much better job” than Powell, whom the president appointed in 2018, and whom he slammed as a numbskull in his most recent public comments.

“Am I allowed to appointment myself at the Fed,” he continued. “I’d do a much better job than these people.”

“He just refuses to lower rates. I don’t even think he’s political, I think he hates me. He probably should, I call him every name in the book to try and get him to cut” Trump lamented.

President Trump on Fed Chair Powell: “We have a stupid person, frankly, at the Fed. He probably won’t cut today…Maybe I should go to the Fed. Am I allowed to appoint myself at the Fed?” pic.twitter.com/AXA9maxJou

— CSPAN (@cspan) June 18, 2025

Trump has frequently targeted Powell’s decisions and repeated that he wants the Fed to cut rates, with today going so far as to demand a 2.5% rate cut from Powell (which in typical Trump fashion is more of a negotiating position than an actual ask.)

Responding to a question on Iran, Trump said that it’s not too late to strike a ceasefire deal, adding that caveat that “nothing is too late. The only thing too late is Powell. Powell is too late. Too late Powell.” 

“I would have never reappointed him. Biden reappointed him. I don’t know why that is. But I guess maybe he was a Democrat,” Trump said Wednesday of Powell, who counts himself a Republican even if his wife is reportedly suffering from a raging case of TDS. 

“You know, I got great advice from Mnuchin on this one,” he said of former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, who was the driving force behind Powell’s nomination.

Meanwhile, markets are abuzz with chatter that Trump will announce a replacement for Powell soon, in what would amount to a “shadow” Fed chair. Powell’s term runs until May 15, 2026. 

The next Fed chair is widely expected to make an extra effort to bring down interest rates, given how Trump has pushed for that repeatedly. But analysts warn that announcing the pick this summer – an unusually early rollout – could hurt the economy and markets. According to Polymarket, Kevin Hassett has a slight lead on Kevin Warsh in odds for the nomination for next Fed chair.

U.S. stocks were heading higher mid-morning as Wall Street awaited the Fed and monitored the conflict between Iran and Israel.

Update(1302ET): Things are quickly going from bad to worse for Iran, amid ongoing Israeli airstrikes, and given Iran’s air defenses in its western portion of the country appear completely destroyed and disabled.

Iran is now in a ‘near-total national internet blackout’ – according to monitoring from a UK-based watchdog:

⚠️ Confirmed: Live network data show #Iran is now in the midst of a near-total national internet blackout; the incident follows a series of earlier partial disruptions and comes amid escalating military tensions with Israel after days of back-and-forth missile strikes 📉 pic.twitter.com/Iu598aIMRJ

— NetBlocks (@netblocks) June 18, 2025

Vital civic infrastructure in Tehran, including some sewage system and water networks, have also been hit.

* * * 

President Donald Trump on Wednesday fielded reporters’ questions on the Iran crisis, but refused to answer whether the US military will directly enter the war, amid Israeli requests that the Pentagon assist in striking Iran’s nuclear facilities.

“There’s a big difference between now and a week ago,“ Trump told reporters outside the White House, and added curiously: “Nobody knows what I’m going to do.“

He indicated that the Iranians had reached out but he feels “it’s very late to be talking.“ But he also threw out the possibility: “We may meet. It’s, I don’t know, there’s a big difference between now and a week ago,” he said on the White House lawn.

“I can tell you this, that Iran’s got a lot of trouble and they want to negotiate. And I say, ‘Why didn’t you negotiate with me before all this death and destruction?’” And more:

“For 40 years they’ve been saying death to America, death to Israel, death to anybody else that they didn’t like,” he said. “They were bullies. They were schoolyard bullies. And now they’re not bullies anymore. But we’ll see what happens.

“I wouldn’t say that we won anything yet. I would say that we sure as hell made a lot of progress.”

He further described Iran as “totally defenseless” at this moment of Israeli warplanes having full dominance of skies in Western Iran. According to a recent Bloomberg headline:

Iran’s Missile Attacks Wane, Allowing Israel to Start Reopening

Amid all of this, CNN is reporting that a third US aircraft carrier is being moved, though not all the way to Middle East waters. This could be as ‘back-up’ to the two carriers currently deploying to the CENTCOM region of responsibility:

USS FORD CARRIER STRIKE GROUP EXPECTED TO DEPLOY TO EUROPE: CNN

CNN details of this latest new deployment:

The USS Ford Carrier Strike Group is expected to be deployed to Europe next week, near the Middle East, putting a third aircraft carrier in close proximity to the conflict between Israel and Iran, a US official and two other people familiar with the matter said.

The Ford’s scheduled deployment to the European Command theater has been in the books since late last year. But it will likely move into the eastern Mediterranean Sea, near Israel, given the ongoing conflict with Iran. At the same time, another aircraft carrier is en route to the Middle East, where it will either join or replace the USS Carl Vinson, CNN has reported.

Meanwhile the hawks are circling, as GOP Sen. Lindsey Graham said he spoke with President Donald Trump last night about Iran, and that he argued there is one facility that “it would be hard to Israel to get without our help.”

“We’ll see what the president does. But I never felt better about the end of the Iran nuclear program is very close, and the world will be better off for it,” Graham said.

Fu Cong, China’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations, says Israel crossed a ‘red line’ by striking Iran’s nuclear facilities.
🇨🇳🇮🇷🇮🇱#China #Iran #IIsrael pic.twitter.com/wm1cfgY41n

— ShanghaiPanda (@thinking_panda) June 14, 2025

“Either you want them to have a nuclear weapon, or you don’t, and if you don’t, if diplomacy fails, you use force,” he continued, according to CNN. “If you don’t understand that Iran with a nuclear weapon is the biggest danger in the world, you’re missing a lot. If you don’t understand this is a religious Nazi regime, you’re not listening to what they say.”

This of course course contradicts everything Trump presented on the campaign trail, and even last month while in the Gulf – that his administration would seek pace, stability, and a non-interventionist stance which breaks from the Mideast military adventurism of the past.

More waves of missiles and strikes were exchanged between Israel and Iran overnight, with Israeli’s military announcing that 1,100 Iranian targets were hit since Friday.

The Israeli Air Force affirmed Wednesday that it is currently striking “military targets belonging to the Iranian regime in Tehran.” The war shows no signs of abating, and as yet there are no announcements that Iranian and US negotiators plan to meet.

Despite more waves of Iranian missiles having pummeled Israel in the overnight and early morning hours, Israeli leaders are trying to present normalcy and are telling the population not to panic.

“Alongside intensified combat against Iran to remove threats — we will reopen the economy, gradually release the public, and return Israel to a path of activity and security,” Defense Minister Katz said, given schools and public venues have been closed, and airspace shut for days.

On the other side, Iranians say they are living through “a nightmare” after Israel’s latest attacks, which involved more than 50 aircraft on Iranian centrifuge and missile production sites overnight.

Hebrew social media accounts are now widely claiming that Israeli jets are going after locations where they believe Ayatollah Khamenei could be hiding. Though is bunker is likely only known to his closest aides…

התקיפות האחרונות בטהרן הן באזור שבו נמצא הבונקר של חמינאי pic.twitter.com/AK48MQR24C

— ישראל היום (@IsraelHayomHeb) June 18, 2025

The Israelis continue going for command and control, nuclear, and vital infrastructure sites. Defense Minister Israel Katz has lately announced Israeli Air Force fighter jets just “destroyed the headquarters of the Iranian regime’s internal security, the main arm of the Iranian dictator’s oppression.”

“As we promised, we will continue to target symbols of [Iran’s] rule and strike the Ayatollah regime wherever it may be,” he said.

But Israeli casualties are mounting, amid immense damage on the ground. According to Israel’s Channel 12, “Since the start of the battle last week, Iran has launched approximately 400 ballistic missiles toward Israel, killing 24 people and wounding 840.”

In an astounding statement, given the world stands at the brink of a WW3-style broader Mideast conflagration which could burn for weeks or months more, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has praised Israel for doing the “dirty work for all of us” – in reference to the Western allies.

* * *

Below are some of the latest developments in the conflict via Newsquawk:

Geopolitics: Latest

• Iranian Supreme leader to speak shortly, according to ISNA.
• Iranian ambassador to the UN, says, if we come to the conclusion that the US is directly involved in attacks on Iran, we will start responding to the US

US Involvement?

• US officials signalled that the next 24 to 48 hours would be critical in determining whether a diplomatic solution with Iran is possible – or if the president might resort to military action instead, according to ABC.
• “Western sources: We have indications that the US will attack Iran soon”, according to Kann News.
• US embassy in Jerusalem will be closed Wednesday through Friday, according to the US State Department.
• US President Trump is considering a range of options when it comes to Iran, including a possible US strike on the country, according to multiple officials cited by NBC.
• Israel Channel 12 journalists report US could join the war against Iran Tuesday night, via Faytuks News citing a telegram post.

Strikes Headlines

• Iranian Revolutionary Guards said Iran’s Fattah missiles broke through Israeli defences, giving it ‘complete domination’ over Israeli airspace.
• “Israel’s Channel 12: Army attacks Tehran’s refineries”, according to Al Arabiya.
• Israeli military said it attacked a centrifuge production site and several weapons production sites of the Iranian regime last night.
• IDF Spokesman said the Iranian regime still has great capabilities that allow it to harm them, Al Jazeera reports. They attacked the IRGC headquarters and killed Iran’s Chief of Staff. “When we finish our mission, we will announce it and will not allow the existential threat against us to continue”.
• Iran has reportedly prepared for strikes on US bases if the US joins the war, according to NYT; Officials suggest that in the event of an attack, Iran could begin to plant mines in the Strait of Hormuz.
• Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei said The battle has begun, via Al Hadath.
• Iranian state media claimed that tonight (Tuesday night) will “hold a surprise the world will remember for centuries”, according to multiple reports.
• “IRGC: Attacks on Israel will continue continuously and gradually”, according to Sky News Arabia.

Diplomacy Headlines

• “Source familiar says there are no plans for a meeting this week between Witkoff and Araghchi”, according to an Al-Monitor journalist.

By Michael Every of Rabobank

So, no, President Trump didn’t leave the G7 to discuss a Middle-East ceasefire. From the Situation Room, he instead declared: “we” now have total control over Iranian airspace; “we” know where Supreme Leader Khamenei is bunkering down but are not going to kill him (yet); and that Iran must offer its “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!”

So, is the US going to enter the war despite the risk of possible attacks on its bases? Anonymous claim a false flag attack on US soil perpetrated by what’s clearly implied as Israel looms to drag it into the war: but isn’t the war part obvious(?) Khamanei tweeted from his bunker –presumably not on a new gold Trump phone– “The Battle begins”, referring to Khaybar, Shia Islam’s conquest of a Saudi Jewish town in 628CE. The unofficial Shah of Iran, abroad, called for an uprising with unsubstantiated claims some of Iran’s military may defect to him, as parts of Tehran were evacuated, Israel hit more military facilities, and some ATM machines stopped functioning. Regime change really can’t be ruled out, it seems: but what then? And who will have control of the nuclear material scattered round the country?

France’s Macron is warning that a violent Iran regime change would trigger ‘chaos’; so would leaving a violent Iran regime in place with a nuclear programme; and so is trying to remove that programme with violence. It’s easy to be a purist and say ‘Non’ to things which one isn’t capable of doing about threats one chooses not to see. It’s not so easy to say, ‘Oui, *quelque chose* doit être fait’ (Yes, *something* must be done.) But what and how?

It’s all desperately confusing and extremely worrying. Indeed, it can feel like we are watching ‘Top Gun: Maverick’ and ‘Hot Shots’ on twin screens, and ‘V for Vendetta’ and ‘The Dictator’, while humming The Scorpions’ ‘Wind of Change’. As such, some in markets are unconditionally surrendering to the appeal of ignoring this as much as possible; or of ‘maverick’ geopolitical Top Hot Takes that the USA V Iran will see asset prices heat up even further once the Big Gun enters the arena. Both are possible in the short term but overlook that this isn’t a regional but a global issue.

As Bloomberg puts it, ‘Russia Fears for Ally Iran With Few Tools to Influence Crisis’, with memes of Khamenei sitting sadly in a Moscow flat with former Syrian President Assad flowing. Russia loves the thought of higher oil prices and hates the idea of losing an ally in Iran. Even with its resources tied up with Ukraine, agreeing to allow the regime to flee to Moscow would have to be part of a larger geopolitical deal. And if you don’t know what that might mean, it might mean you’re part of it.

In geoeconomics, the Wall Street Journal says, ‘If Iran’s Oil Is Cut Off, China Will Pay the Price’ as “Chinese refineries have become hooked on cheap imports of sanctioned Iranian crude.” China also may want to have a say: what’s in it for them if Iran sees regime change and the Middle East, and its oil, ends up as a US satrapy?

Or the EU, which just released its latest proposals to wean itself off Russian gas – but not oil. However, that’s just as Qatar –whom it will have to rely on instead– warned that LNG carriers sailing to it should wait outside the Strait of Hormuz as GPS tracking being jammed has already seen two tankers collide, and its foreign ministry noted everyone is concerned about “uncalculated targeting” of the South Pars gas field.

The EU is also spurning economic dialogue with China due to the latter’s neo-mercantilism: a planned summit in July is now off. Moreover, European Commission President Von der Leyen said at the G7, “On this point, Donald is right – there is a serious problem… [China’s] undercutting intellectual property protections, massive subsidies with the aim to dominate global manufacturing and supply chains. This is not market competition – it is distortion with intent,” and threatens “a new China shock.” So, is the EU going to line up with the US vs. China as the larger threat? If not, what?

That’s as ECB President Lagarde spoke of a “global euro moment.” No, not more countries watching their camp Song Contest –where Israel was also a story this year– but EUR gaining ground on the USD as a global reserve asset. Yet that’s at a time when European powerlessness vis-à-vis the US could not be more amply demonstrated across multiple realpolitik dimensions from military to energy to tech to banking. (And as UK PM Starmer is reportedly going to meet NATO defence spending targets by counting rural broadband as such. “We” feel safer already.)

Indeed, while Bloomberg notes ‘Trump Is Driving Off Investors and Imperilling the Dollar’s Reign’ it’s others’ physical reigns in question due to US hard power. If markets are too blind to see that truth, “because markets”, and think somehow, they sit above that dynamic, not below it, then I’m not sure what function they play anymore – with emphasis on the word ‘play’.

The same can be said about fudging defense spending figures to please markets who think pure economic policy targets actually still matter. Go ahead: just don’t be surprised if you turn out to be more of an Iran and less of an Israel if/when push ever comes to shove.

Notably, Lagarde’s call also implies Europe must produce more financial assets and less physical stuff – as if that helps it in the present geopolitical circumstances. On cue(?), the EU is to resurrect securitisation banking practices that helped cause the 2008 global financial crisis. Then again, ‘US Plans to Ease Capital Rule Limiting Banks’ Treasury Trades’, where Bloomberg notes: “The revisions aim to bolster banks’ roles as intermediaries in the market, but some experts argue that easing the leverage ratio may not encourage banks to buy more Treasuries and could make the financial system more fragile.” But if this all goes wrong, who will need whose swap lines as part of a bailout? I’m asking for a friend who may or may not be in a bunker.

True, Bloomberg also ran a story saying some exporters to the US don’t want to receive dollars: so, don’t sell to the US then, which is how the current and capital accounts link up; or get the dollars and sell them to someone else. There is no sign of an unconditional dollar surrender here really.

In politics, the US Supreme Court will also get to look at Trump tariffs at some point later this year – who doesn’t, it seems? Moreover, the White House may ban pharma firms from TV advertising, with a huge impact on both, and the FBI is alluding to attempted Chinese election interference in 2020. Not a dull moment.

But it’s the Fed today, where their usual whisperer Nick Timiraos is tweeting that they would be thinking about cutting already if not for their concern over the known unknowns of tariffs, which have not shown any real impact on CPI so far. Yet what about the unknown unknowns of geopolitics? Will the Fed today mark an unconditional surrender to that hard exogenous reality or continue to fight and die on the hill that it has nothing to do with them at all… and that they have nothing to do with it, when actually they ?

I would wager most of the money will be on the latter, who coincidentally think the same way – for now. After all it’s not until 2026 that they must face up to that ugly reality, unless we get a Shadow Fed Chair appointed earlier. Plenty of time to go risk on and ignore the world around them and their now subordinate position within it.

Crude prices are down modestly this morning despite ongoing attacks between Iran and Israel and API reporting a major crude draw overnight as President Trump said Iran has reached out and wants to negotiate.

When asked about possible Iran strikes, Trump said: “I may do it. I may not do it. Nobody knows what I’m going to do.”

Meantime, Trump also said he told Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to “keep going.”

So geopolitical risk premia are far from over.

Additionally, Russian flows rose only very marginally in the last four weeks, limiting downward price pressures.

API

• Crude -10.133mm  (-600k exp)

• Cushing -800k

• Gasoline -202k

• Distillates +318k

DOE

• Crude -11.47mm (-600k exp, -2.8mm Whisper) – biggest build since June 2024

• Cushing -995k

• Gasoline +209k

• Distillates +514k

The offoicial data confirmed API’s with a huge crude drawdown (the biggest since June 2024). We also saw a third straight week of product builds…

Source: Bloomberg

Despite the plungng rig count, US crude production remains near record highs (for now)…

Source: Bloomberg

WTI tumbled ahead of the official data on Trump’s comments on Iran seeking peace.. bounced very briefly on the huge crude draw…

Source: Bloomberg

…but the main driver for prices right now continues to be the potential for Israel-Iran war escalations. 

In a rare and important nationally televised wartime speech by Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, he warned against American military intervention on behalf of Israel. 

He set out three clear messages: first that Israel’s aggression happened when Tehran was engaged in indirect nuclear talks with the US and that there was no sign whatsoever that harsh military action was coming. This is confirmation he and the Islamic Republic were caught completely off-guard.

Axios had claimed that Washington knew about it, and that the talks were a smokescreen to allow Israel the element of total surprise when its warplanes began hitting Iranian nuclear sites.

Second, he asserted that the Americans should know that Iran is not going to surrender and that US entry into the war would bring irreversible destruction. 

A third main point Khamenei maid in the speech, even as bombs are still falling on Tehran and elsewhere, is that the American military’s entry into the conflict would be clear sign of weakness for Israel.

“The US President threatens us. With his absurd rhetoric, he demands that the Iranian people surrender to him. They should make threats against those who are afraid of being threatened. The Iranian nation isn’t frightened by such threats,” the Ayatollah said according to state translation.

“It isn’t wise to tell the Iranian nation to surrender. What should the Iranian nation surrender to? We will never surrender in response to the attacks of anyone. This is the logic of the Iranian nation. This is the spirit of the Iranian nation.”

He continued: “The US entering in this matter [war] is 100% to its own detriment. The damage it will suffer will be far greater than any harm that Iran may encounter.” And more:

The harm the US will suffer will definitely be irreparable if they enter this conflict militarily.

The Zionist regime’s malicious attack on our country took place at a time when Iranian officials were indirectly engaged in negotiations with the US side. There was no indication on the part of Iran that signaled a military move.

Speaking on the question of potential direct US involvement already, Khamenei said, “It was already suspected that the US was involved in the malicious move carried out by the Zionist regime, but considering their recent remarks, this suspicion is growing stronger day by day.”

Is the US military involved already? One hawkish US Senator from Texas suggests so…

Ted Cruz on Iran. Full interview tomorrow. pic.twitter.com/hJNwAHAnxZ

— Tucker Carlson (@TuckerCarlson) June 18, 2025

Meanwhile, 

• Israel says it has struck 40 sites in Iran today, including centrifuge production and weapons facilities, while Iran launched a swarm of drones at Israel. –AJ

• Both Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have raised the idea of assassinating Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, with Trump saying yesterday that he was “an easy target.” –NBC

However, he’s probably deep in an underground bunker at a secret location which is known only to his closest military aides at this point. Likely lran had long prepared such a location from which he could direct a massive war with Israel.

Currently, there are reports pointing to possible rapid depletion of Israel’s Iron Dome defense system, and that many more ballistic and hypersonic missiles are getting through than expected. This reality could force either a direct American response or else a stalemated situation where Israel is at risk of failing in its key objectives.