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Oil And Gold Jump As Israel Targets Iranian Energy Infrastructure

Oil And Gold Jump As Israel Targets Iranian Energy Infrastructure

Oil jumped in late Sunday trading with investors focused on escalating geopolitical tensions as Israel and Iran continue to bombard each other with no sign of a pause, amid some speculation the worst-case scenario – a blockade of the straits of Hormuz which could send oil as high as $130 – is increasingly likely (odds rising to 17% according to JPM). 

Brent crude rose as much as 5.5% to $77.50 – its Thursday night high – in early Asian trading after Israel and Iran continued attacks on one another’s territories over the weekend. The price then promptly ease back as shorts who stand to suffer massive losses in case of a squeeze, doubled down by shorting even more in hopes the crises somehow de-escalates.

That’s a problem because unlike late last week, over the weekend Israel started attacking Iran’s energy infrastructure, and on Saturday launched an attack on the giant South Pars gas field in the Persian Gulf, forcing the shut down of a production platform, after air strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites and military leadership last week.

Asian equity-index futures pointed to declines in Hong Kong and Sydney, while contracts for US equities initially edged lower before stubborn retail dip buyers promptly emerged again. The dollar saw modest gains against major peers in early trading, while gold rose toward a record on Monday as the conflict drove investors toward haven assets.

Last week’s biggest market reaction to the conflict was oil, with crude prices surging more than 13% on Friday before paring some of those gains. The biggest concern for the market centers on the Strait of Hormuz and prices could soar further if Iran attempts to block the route. On Saturday, JPMorgan raised its odds of a Hormuz closure to 17%.

“Markets should be prepared for a prolonged period of uncertainty,” said Wolf von Rotberg, an equity strategist at Bank J. Safra Sarasin, quoted by Bloomberg. “Hedging against potential oil supply-chain disruptions via exposure to the energy market and adding to gold, which may see an acceleration of its structural uptrend, are the best ways to protect a portfolio against a further escalation in the Middle East.”

Some investors ended last week choosing to wait to gauge how long the tensions would last, mindful of similar standoffs between the two nations that eventually de-escalated. Still, the extension of the conflict and intensity of the current hostilities is likely to cast a shadow over risk assets on Monday. Already, the MSCI World Index of developed-market equities fell the most since April on Friday following Israel’s initial air strikes on Iran. 

“This is a significant escalation, to the point where these nations are at war,” said Michael O’Rourke, chief market strategist at JonesTrading. “The ramifications will be larger and last longer,” with weakness in equity markets likely, especially after recent gains, he said.

While the drop in US stock futures was modest, most Middle East stock indexes suffered bigger losses on Sunday. Egypt’s main gauge was the worst performer, seeing the biggest losses in more than a year on concern that a halt in Israeli gas production will cause fuel shortages. In Saudi Arabia, the Tadawul gauge’s declines were limited by Aramco, which gained on higher oil prices. Israel’s benchmark ended higher as military supplier Elbit Systems Ltd. rallied.

Still, judging by the recent dip-buying euphoria, one can see why some are confident that this too will blow over quickly. 

“Unless oil stays elevated and drives inflation higher, this is more likely a pause than a panic as other narratives are driving the market,” said Dave Mazza, chief executive officer, Roundhill Investments. “It may present a buying opportunity, but with markets having rallied sharply off recent lows, gains from here will be harder to come by.”

Traders are weighing the fresh geopolitical risks at a time when they are also grappling with destabilized global trade relationships, the prospect of new tariffs from Donald Trump, economic cross-currents, the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine and rising political tensions in the US amid protests.   

Tyler Durden
Sun, 06/15/2025 – 20:26

“Caviar, Champagne And Lobster”: MAGA’s Exclusive $500K Private Club Launches – With Bessent, Bondi & RFK Jr. Partying With Tech Billionaires

“Caviar, Champagne And Lobster”: MAGA’s Exclusive $500K Private Club Launches – With Bessent, Bondi & RFK Jr. Partying With Tech Billionaires

On Friday night, DC’s conservative elite celebrated the opening of ‘The Executive Branch’ – a members-only club which is the brainchild of Donald Trump Jr., 1789 Capital’s Omeed Malik, Christopher Buskirk, and Alex and Zach Witkoff. 

Early invitees will have to pay a $500,000 founding member initiation fee, after which the club will admit another round of members in the fall with a $150,000 initiation fee and annual dues of $15,000.

The New York Post’s Lydia Moynihan reported on the star-studded affair:

While the president was not in attendance, Witkoff was present, joined by Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, PayPal mafia member Keith Rabois, crypto billionaires Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, New York Jets owner Woody Johnson, and Dr. Oz.

From the Trump administration, crypto and AI czar David Sacks, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent were seen, alongside Attorney General Pam Bondi, Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and Department of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem.

Other opening-night guests included newly appointed Under Secretary of State for Economic Growth Jacob Helberg, Secretary of Education Linda McMahon, UAE ambassador to the U.S. Yousef Al Otaiba, and Secretary of Labor Lori Chavez-DeRemer.

Vice President JD Vance did not attend the opening.

The Executive Branch, located on Wisconsin Avenue, “is the first of its kind in Washington, D.C.—there is nothing else like it,” Malik said in an interview with the Post. “It’s consistent with our efforts at 1789 to invest in the parallel economy or, in this case, creating an entirely new experience.”

At a lavish gathering Friday, attendees indulged in an opulent spread of caviar, champagne, and lobster, evoking comparisons to the extravagance of the Gilded Age, one guest told the Post. Attendees also dined on fine foods cooked in beef tallow instead of seed oil—a nod to the Make America Healthy Again movement led by Kennedy.

The venue was heavily guarded by former Navy SEALs and was not open to the media, or as attendees refer to it, the Fake News.

Tyler Durden
Sun, 06/15/2025 – 20:25

California City Makes Homeless Eligible For Arrest If They Refuse 3 Offers Of Shelter

California City Makes Homeless Eligible For Arrest If They Refuse 3 Offers Of Shelter

Authored by Kimberley Hayek via The Epoch Times,

The San Jose City Council in Northern California voted June 10 to render homeless individuals, who refuse three offers of shelter, in violation of trespassing laws and able to be arrested.

The council members voted 9–2 in favor of amending the city’s encampment code of conduct with a “responsibility to shelter” provision.

San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, a Democrat, introduced the proposal, which is among the stricter anti-encampment laws introduced since the Supreme Court in 2023 made it simpler for cities to ban homeless people from camping on public property. Mahan said that, if the city has enough shelter and interim housing, homeless people should be required to move into them.

Vice Mayor Pam Foley said getting people housed is the first step to getting them the help they need.

“We cannot expect to adequately treat mental illness, addiction, or unemployment effectively if someone is living outdoors,” Foley said during the City Council meeting. “Stable shelter, whether through interim housing, safe parking, or safe sleeping sites, not only connects people with critical services and job training, but ultimately paves the way toward permanent housing.”

Foley said the updated Code of Conduct demonstrates that San Jose is dedicated to reducing homelessness and restoring access to public spaces.

“When shelter becomes available, choosing not to fill those spaces only sets us back,” she said. “We must ensure that every opportunity to move people indoors is used to its fullest potential for both their sake and for the broader San Jose community’s well being.”

The city will not make arrests merely for refusing shelter, but, rather, for trespassing. The goal of the code of conduct revision is to enhance engagement with the homeless community.

Councilmember Peter Ortiz, who voted “no” on the proposal, fears the code of conduct revision could lead to a situation where the city has de facto criminalized homelessness, pointing out that the policy says somebody who simply declines shelter could be arrested. He noted that there are many reasons one may deny shelter, including unsafe shelter conditions or incompatibility.

“I think that by including arrest language in this policy, there could be unintended consequences,” he said at the city council meeting.

Councilmember Pamela Campos, who also voted no on the provision, said that the problem of homelessness has been oversimplified.

“In speaking with those who serve unhoused individuals at encampments, I have learned that it takes time and intention to build relationships and trust, to eventually persuade a person to accept shelter,” she said.

When Mahan introduced the “Responsibility to Shelter” initiative, he said that the homeless are also responsible for coming indoors.

“Responsibility is a two-way street,” Mahan said when he made the proposal in March of this year. “We’re holding ourselves responsible for doubling our supply of safe, dignified places for people to go—it’s time we held our homeless neighbors responsible for coming indoors. Because in San Jose, homelessness should never be a choice.”

San Jose’s 2023 homeless count found 9,903 people living on the streets, including 365 families, 764 minors, and 508 individuals. The count also found that 24 percent of the homeless individuals lost their jobs ahead of landing on the streets, 11 percent cited drug and alcohol use as the primary reason they ended up unhoused, 9 percent cited a divorce or breakup, 8 percent cited an eviction, and 8 percent were fleeing domestic violence.

Thirty-three percent owned or rented a residence before becoming homeless, 31 percent reported psychiatric or emotional conditions, and 29 percent reported suffering post-traumatic stress disorder.

At the state level, California Gov. Gavin Newsom requested in May that cities ban encampments.

“There’s nothing compassionate about letting people die on the streets,” Newsom said. “Local leaders asked for resources—we delivered the largest state investment in history. They asked for legal clarity—the courts delivered. Now, we’re giving them a model they can put to work immediately, with urgency and with humanity, to resolve encampments and connect people to shelter, housing, and care. The time for inaction is over. There are no more excuses.”

San Francisco Mayor Daniel Lurie introduced in March the “Breaking the Cycle” initiative to change the city’s homelessness strategy. He also placed 2-hour parking restrictions on recreational vehicles (RVs) and oversized vehicles, in an attempt to stop people from living in them.

Tyler Durden
Sun, 06/15/2025 – 19:50

Spy Satellite Uncovers Massive Stealth Flying Wing At Secretive Chinese Base

Spy Satellite Uncovers Massive Stealth Flying Wing At Secretive Chinese Base

China is well aware that Western spy satellites, including those operated by the U.S., maintain constant overhead surveillance of high-value military assets, such as bases and research facilities. 

The deliberate exposure of a previously unseen, large, low-observable flying-wing HALE (High-Altitude Long-Endurance) unmanned aerial vehicle at the Malan test facility may not have been an accident

Instead, it appears to be a deliberate act of signaling by Beijing to the Trump administration, highlighting the rapid acceleration of China’s next-generation air combat capabilities at a time when the global security environment is rapidly deteriorating.

With the war in Ukraine ongoing and tensions in the Middle East escalating into a hot crisis, Beijing’s timing suggests an intent to assert technological parity and deterrence against the U.S. Broadly speaking, the world is entering a more dangerous and unstable era — a shift from a unipolar world with the U.S. in control to a bipolar geopolitical order, where volatility is expected to intensify throughout the 2030s.

The War Zone’s Tyler Rogoway cited new satellite spy images via Planet Labs that show the previously unseen HALE drone at a secretive test base near Malan in Xinjiang province

“Specifically, the craft was parked outside of a sprawling new facility that was built very recently to the east of the base, connected to it by a very long taxiway leading to a security gate,” Rogoway said.

Source: TWZ

Rogoway pointed out the drone’s design resembles that of the B-21 Raider and possibly the U.S. RQ-180, with clipped wingtips, a domed center section (likely housing engines or systems), and possibly small vertical stabilizers to aid flight stability.

Source: TWZ

This drone may mark a significant leap in China’s next-generation drone combat ecosystem, possibly supporting or integrating with other platforms, such as the H-20 bomber, J-36, and smaller tactical drones — mirroring the U.S. approach. 

Tyler Durden
Sun, 06/15/2025 – 19:15

Col. MacGregor: Dear President Trump, Keep America First – Not Israel first, Not Ukraine First

Col. MacGregor: Dear President Trump, Keep America First – Not Israel first, Not Ukraine First

Authored by Col. Douglas Macgregor (ret.)

In the last 72 hours, Israel launched a preemptive strike against Iran when negotiations between Washington and Tehran were still ongoing. Iran was caught off-guard.

But Iran recovered more quickly from its Pearl Harbor moment than Israel expected. In less than 18 hours after Israel’s surprise attack, Iran responded firing hundreds of ballistic missiles including hypersonic missiles into central Tel Aviv and across Israel.

Meanwhile, Israel’s Iron Dome failed. Israeli intelligence failed. Now Netanyahu is pleading with Washington to intervene with American Military Power to rescue Israel from certain defeat; a defeat Netanyahu crafted with encouragement from Washington.

At the same time, Russia, China, Pakistan and most of the Muslim World are rallying to Iran’s defense. Supplies, equipment and technical assistance are pouring into Iran. It’s time for a reality check: Washington burned through $12 trillion in the Middle East since 2003. Result? 7,000 dead Americans. 50,000 wounded, open borders and 100,000 Americans dying yearly from Fentanyl poisoning. Today, the United States is $37 trillion in debt, a sum that does not include so-called “agency debt.”  

Via Breaking Defense

77 million Americans voted for President Trump because he promised to end the overseas conflicts and halt the march to WW3. Trump’s mandate is unchanged: Secure America’s borders, ports and coastal waters. Deport illegal aliens, crush the criminals r-ping and murdering Americans.

Restore the rule of law. But not one more drop of American blood for foreign wars. One Israeli strike on Kharg Island—where 90% of Iran’s oil exports flow—or Bandar Abbas terminals, and Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz. That’s 20% of global oil supply.

That means disrupted supply chains and runaway inflation. Gas hits $7/gallon overnight. Every working family crushed. Truckers can’t deliver food. Economy crashes. For what? So Israel that started this insane war can drag Americans into a wider regional conflict with the potential for nuclear war?  

We have 40,000 troops in UAE, Qatar, across the Persian Gulf. They are sitting ducks. Iranian Shahed-136 Drones cost $20,000 each. American Patriot Missiles cost $4 million per interceptor. Do the math. We will run through our inventory of missiles and go broke while Americans come home in boxes.  

The Middle East is on the brink. Here’s what Washington must do to defuse conflict:  

1. Ask for an Emergency UN Security Council meeting. Ask for an Immediate ceasefire making it clear that Washington opposes the destruction of Iran, Israel and any other state in the Middle East.  

2. Demand that Israel stop the killing of Palestinians in Gaza and withdraw its forces from Gaza and the West Bank.

3. Suspend all military aid to Israel until Israel agrees to remove its troops from Gaza and permit humanitarian assistance to reach the people of Gaza.

4. Propose the commitment of Armed Forces from non-aligned nations to police Gaza and the West Bank.

5. Propose that the United States, Russia, China, India and Brazil convene a peace conference to arbitrate the dispute between Israel, Iran and Israel’s neighbors.  

I led American Soldiers under fire into action. I’ve seen plenty of flag-draped coffins. I don’t want to see any more. Washington’s warmongers had 22 years. They failed. They lied. They profited while America bled. Time’s up.   America First means AMERICA FIRST. Not Israel first. Not Ukraine first. Not NATO first. AMERICA FIRST.

Tyler Durden
Sun, 06/15/2025 – 18:40

DHS Respond After ‘Violent Rioters’ Storm ICE Facility, Assault Law Enforcement Officers

DHS Respond After ‘Violent Rioters’ Storm ICE Facility, Assault Law Enforcement Officers

The Department of Homeland Security has responded after anti-ICE protesters in Portland, Oregon stormed an ICE facility and assaulted federal law enforcement officers on Saturday. 

Law enforcement agents stand after tear gas was deployed outside the U.S. Immigration and Customs building during a protest Saturday, June 14, 2025, in Portland, Ore. (AP Photo/Jenny Kane)

“Secretary Noem’s message to the rioters is clear: you will not stop us or slow us down. ICE and our federal law enforcement partners will continue to enforce the law,” reads a post on X. “If you lay a hand on a law enforcement officer, you will be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law.”

Multiple police officers were injured Saturday night in the attack – which included a mob launching fireworks, smoke grenades and rocks at federal law enforcement, causing property damage as they forcibly entered the ICE facility

Armed US Customs and Border Protection agents point less-lethal guns at masked protesters during a riot outside the ICE building in Portland, Ore. on June 14, 2025. AP

Four officers were injured in the attack, which came after the city hosted a “No Kings” protest at 1 p.m. – which was framed by officials as a “large-scale free speech gathering.” 

Tens of thousands of people showed up to march through downtown and returned to Waterfront Park around 4 p.m. – around five miles from the ICE field location, Fox News reports.

A law enforcement officer points a taser at a person wearing a hot dog costume during a protest Saturday, June 14, 2025, in Portland, Ore. (AP Photo/Jenny Kane)

At around 6:30 p.m., the Portland Police Bureau (PPB) declared an unlawful assembly, while at around 8 p.m. they observed criminal activity – including assault and criminal mischief, and announced that they would be making targeted arrests.

“Portland rioters are violently targeting federal law enforcement and we won’t sit idly by and watch these cowards,” Homeland Security Assistant Secretary Tricia McLaughlin told Fox News Digital. “Secretary [Kristi] Noem’s message to the rioters is clear: you will not stop us or slow us down. ICE and our federal law enforcement partners will continue to enforce the law. And if you lay a hand on a law enforcement officer, you will be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law.”

Tyler Durden
Sun, 06/15/2025 – 18:05

Leftist Protesters Attempting “Global March To Gaza” Get Beaten And Arrested In Egypt

Leftist Protesters Attempting “Global March To Gaza” Get Beaten And Arrested In Egypt

There is perhaps no group more tiresome and naive than western progressives; constantly seeking to socially engineer not just their own nations, but nations on the other side of the world.  If they can’t do it through the monetary manipulation of subversive bureaucratic institutions like USAID, then they will try to do it directly with protests, marches and mobs.  The problem is, no one likes them and no one wants them around.  The tolerance they enjoy in Europe and the US does not exist in other countries and they don’t seem to get it.

Just as leftists ignorantly demand multiculturalism without understanding the inevitable and violent consequences of inviting the third world into the west, they also tend to invite themselves overseas into the backyards of civilizations that despise everything the political left supposedly stands for.

Thousands of activists, primarily from western countries, have descended on Egypt this week for a “Global March to Gaza,” a movement aiming to break the Israeli blockade that they argue has pushed the region to the brink of famine.  Some 4,000 volunteers from over 80 countries joined the protest, according to organizers.  This number is unconfirmed and footage of arriving protesters shows much smaller groups.

They planned to land in Cairo, take buses to the city of Arish in northern Sinai, and then march around 30 miles through the desert peninsula to the Egyptian side of the Gaza border at Rafah. Organizers said the activists would sleep in tents along the route and expected to arrive at the border on Friday.

The idea was clearly ill conceived from the beginning, with protesters believing they have the ability to march 30 miles across the Egyptian desert towards a war zone without interference, but the group never actually made it beyond Cairo.  Egyptian authorities detained at least 200 pro-Palestinian activists in Cairo on Thursday (with more reportedly being held).  Among the detainees were people from Australia, France, Morocco, the Netherlands, Spain and the United States.

Footage shows activists being beaten by an angry mob of Egyptians (possibly security forces) after they attempted a sit down protest and locked arms.

They also claimed to have been beaten by Egyptian police after they were arrested.  Most of the activists are now being deported back to their countries of origin.

As Israel’s war in Gaza enters its 21st month, high-profile international campaigners are becoming increasingly active in their attempts to “break the siege” (or steal the spotlight).  Recently Israel intercepted a Gaza-bound aid ship, the “Madleen,” detaining its passengers and taking them to Israel.  Among the activists on board was Swedish climate and human rights activist Greta Thunberg and French member of the European Parliament Rima Hassan.

At bottom, the events in Gaza and the Middle East have nothing to do with the western populace and the circumstances go well beyond the limited understanding of first-world progressives.  These are not places or cultures where civil protest is permitted.  These are cultures where violence is the first and only means of societal change.  One cannot effectively intervene if one foolishly believes first world strategies can be applied to third world problems.

Tyler Durden
Sun, 06/15/2025 – 16:55

Two Hot Wars And Counting… And The Fed On Wednesday

Two Hot Wars And Counting… And The Fed On Wednesday

By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

On Shaky Ground

Let’s start by wishing everyone a happy Father’s Day, or more broadly, let’s just keep family and friends in mind as the world takes a turn for the worse. Two hot wars. There is probably more fighting going on than just in Ukraine/Russia and Israel/Iran (and certainly death and devastation is occurring in parts of Africa), but that has been where everyone’s attention has turned.

Academy will continue to keep you updated on the events in the Middle East and our projections (that this will potentially last several weeks, not days) via our Geopolitical Analysis. If you don’t have access to our full history of SITREPs and Macro Strategy Reports, please reach out to your contact at Academy.

The latest SITREP was Friday evening – “Iran Commences Missile Strikes on Israel.”

Today, in an effort not to inundate you with missives from Academy, we will keep this contained as we will certainly have more SITREPS in the coming days and are planning a webinar for Tuesday (registration invite to follow).

Macro in a Minute

Last weekend we took stock of the current situation in Where Are We Now?

We followed up midweek, ahead of the auctions, with the view to Continue to Add Duration. We had hypothesized that the auctions would be strong, and they were.

The rates trade was derailed, sometime in the middle of Thursday night, when global yields went from trading as a “flight to safety” to seeing the risk of higher energy prices and larger deficits due to military spending. That is how we expected them to trade in the event of more war, but we just missed the timing of the escalation.

Into the close on Friday, we reiterated our bullish stance on Treasuries and expectations that ongoing conflict (where we are now) would hit the “safety” trade.

The Fed

The Fed decision comes out on Wednesday, just ahead of the Juneteenth holiday.

When I pull up the Bloomberg WIRP Function (World Interest Rate Probability), I see that a full cut isn’t priced in until October (86% in September). The market is pricing in exactly two cuts for the year.

We continue to take the under on timing and the over on number of cuts.

  • Inflation has been contained.
    • More importantly, at current tariffs rates (call it 10% with the rest of the world), there will be some inflationary pressures, but they will take time to bleed into the economy.
    • Many even question whether they will ever be passed on to prices. Our base case is that they creep into the economy, but slowly, as it takes time to pass on price increases, and many will wait to see how it plays out before even trying, and yes, exporters will face some pressure to cut prices, which in a slowing global economy, they will likely do.
    • U.S. tariff policy could change on a dime, but more pauses seem likely and we can manage through that (with regards to inflation).
    • Our view incorporates the risk that tariffs will slow the economy somewhat, also dampening the potential for inflation.
    • Aside from the Headline Establishment NFP number, it is difficult to find other signs of economic strength. Yes, we are conditioned to react to the headline number that is published. Who cares about revisions? The awful Household Survey? The fact that response rates are abysmal – even on the “admired” Establishment Survey? Who cares that ADP (presumably with some real-time access) doesn’t see jobs being created like that? While we have “maligned” the Birth/Death adjustment for some time, more and more people are doing serious work on this. This is contrasted against our “finger in the air” approach, which is coming up with similar conclusions – the Birth/Death model has not kept up with the changing job world (especially the GIG economy). JOLTS doesn’t seem to be signaling job growth? Oh, and let’s not forget the very large downward revision.
      • The Fed will almost certainly acknowledge a cooling job market.
  • Oil is “transitory.”
    • The fear that the Fed will be cautious to cut because oil is rising (because of a war) seems very misplaced.
      • Oil is the definition of transitory in Fedspeak (they constantly talk about looking through oil prices and focusing on the labor market). We have EX-FOOD & ENERGY for a reason.
      • It would seem out of Powell’s nature to not admit that yes, we have higher oil prices currently, but that we also have higher uncertainty in the global economy.

Maybe the press conference won’t put July on the table, but that is a bet we like!

It would also take some pressure off the administration. Not that the Fed is political, but the narrative they are facing – weaker jobs, manageable tariffs, and a weaker dollar, even as other central banks cut, should give the Fed the ammunition to “unbalance” the risks and at least hint to markets that they are leaning back towards cutting.

While July might not get priced in this week, there is plenty of room for the curve to price in more cuts, sooner.

Now that interest expense is such a large portion of our spending, any move forward in cuts should help the long end as it can reduce deficits. That is so contrary to how I’ve been trained to think, it almost hurts to write, but we’ve never had interest expense as such a big part of the annual deficit before.

Remain bullish on bonds this week, between war and the Fed.

Deals

The equity market in particular seems to be looking for more “deals.” That we will ratify what has been “agreed” to with China, etc. The status quo of “more pauses” isn’t bad, but that, or better, is already priced into equities.

Expect a slowdown on the potential announcement of deals.

  • The administration relies on a handful of people to carry out policy. Maybe there is a lot going on behind the scenes, but this administration (even more than some others) seems to rely heavily on high level negotiations. It doesn’t seem like teams of “worker bees” are sent out to negotiate a deal that is then ratified by the senior advisors. Or maybe tweaked, but the bulk of the work is still being done by relatively junior people. The hands-on approach, with President Trump often very involved, is one of the pillars that the administration believes makes them successful. It will be difficult for the handful of advisors to focus on so many deals, as this escalation has occurred and they get pulled in multiple directions. That is the risk of this sort of strategy (and maybe why so many hockey teams with star players do well in the regular season, but fade in the playoffs – I’m thinking of the Leafs, but I’m sure many fans have similar thoughts).
  • It is difficult to argue that the U.S. is winning a lot of deals. If the U.S. was winning negotiation after negotiation, it would be easy for others to fall in line. Success breeds success. While I think the administration has “pivoted” from the disastrous Liberation Day tariffs, you can also see why some (many) people talk about the TACO trade (Trump Always Chickens Out). While that has once again put “Taco, Taco man, I wanna be a Taco man” into my head, I think it is at least somewhat unfair. He tried, people didn’t respond the way he expected, and he avoided clinging to potentially disastrous policy. Having said that:
    • No Peace in Russia/Ukraine. While “24 hours” was hyperbole, it is now well past that. Probably more importantly, the “plan” of pushing on Ukraine and catering to Putin seems to be reversing course.
    • Iran. Ongoing, and already escalated beyond where it was, rather than moving rapidly to deal stage.
    • U.K. trade deal. So far that is it. Somewhat vague, some promises to buy things they were already likely to buy, and not at the top of most people’s list of 5 most important trade counterparties.
    • China. The main thing we can hope for is that the realization that we NEED to refine and process rare earths and critical minerals is finally top of mind! If this can drive National Production for National Security as the main talking points (and action items in the coming months) that would be great for markets and seems both obvious and absolutely necessary.

I’m very worried that deals will take longer to get and that could be disappointing for equities.

A push to accelerate National Production for National Security would be great for markets (it would be more effective, we believe, with the involvement of close allies, but that might be a step too far for this admin to pivot to, just yet).

Bottom Line

If it is possible to like energy (and commodity related stocks) and bonds at the same time, then that is our position.

It sounds weird, but we think the confluence of events supports both (more comfortable on the stocks and credit spreads than the commodities themselves).

Escalation risk and the potential to see deals “sidelined” or “delayed” for a variety of reasons could weigh on equities, though a dovish Fed could offset that (I don’t like the concept, but it has played out time and again).

Enjoy time with friends, family, and colleagues and it is okay to reach out and call someone, even if it isn’t their “day.” Though calling your parents might not be a bad idea today!

Tyler Durden
Sun, 06/15/2025 – 16:20

Tipping The Scales: Why So Many Cases Against Trump Are Heard By Democrat-Appointed Judges

Tipping The Scales: Why So Many Cases Against Trump Are Heard By Democrat-Appointed Judges

Authored by Benjamin Weingarten via RealClearInvestigations,

As the Trump administration faces substantial pushback in the courts, including an unprecedented wave of nationwide injunctions halting its policies, some are claiming that his opponents are tilting the scales of justice by selectively bringing their lawsuits before sympathetic courts in a practice called “forum shopping.” They note that three-quarters of the lower court justices who have blocked Trump policies were appointed by Democrats.

Gaming the federal justice system, however, is harder than it sounds because plaintiffs bring cases before courts rather than judges. Most federal courts have a mix of judges appointed by Democrats and Republicans. The plaintiff’s goal in forum shopping is to launch their suit in a district where they are more likely to draw a sympathetic justice – ideally, this district would also include an appellate court stacked with like-minded judges.

To see whether Trump’s adversaries are engaging in forum shopping, RealClearInvestigations analyzed 350 cases brought against the administration. We found that plaintiffs have brought 80% of those cases before just 11 of the nation’s 91 district courts. While Democrat presidents have appointed roughly 60% of all active district court judges, each of the 11 district courts where the anti-Trump challenges have been clustered boasts an even higher percentage of Democrat appointees. In several of these venues, the administration’s challengers are almost guaranteed that a judge picked by Joe Biden, Barack Obama, or Bill Clinton will preside over their case.

The analysis of these 350 cases, which covers all those identified in popular litigation trackers and RCI’s independent research as of this week, lends credence to claims that anti-Trump litigants may be strategically filing suit in courts where they are most likely to receive a favorable ruling – a practice that has been both pursued and decried by Democrats and Republicans.

RCI also analyzed three dozen cases in which judges imposed the most extreme restraint on the Trump administration by entering a nationwide or universal injunction – prohibiting the administration from enforcing its policy not only against the party bringing the case, but anyone, everywhere. The analysis shows that these injunctions have disproportionately emerged from Democrat-leaning courts where plaintiffs have brought the lion’s share of suits, and that Democrat-appointed judges are overwhelmingly responsible for ordering them.

This is consistent with other analyses indicating that Democrat-appointed judges have handed down the bulk of all adverse rulings against the Trump administration.

Trump critics note that Republican-appointed judges have also ruled against the administration. They contend that the courts have halted Trump’s policies at an unprecedented scale because of his administration’s unprecedented overreach.

Nevertheless, evidence shows that the anti-Trump cases used to stymie policies in areas ranging from immigration to DEI and the administrative state have overwhelmingly come before courts that, on their face, would appear unfriendly. Plaintiffs have brought roughly 60% of all cases against Trump in three district courts with a disproportionate number of active judges appointed by Democratic presidents: the District of Columbia, Massachusetts, and Maryland.

Plaintiffs filed 41% of all cases RCI identified – 143 in all – in the D.C. District Court, where Democratic presidents appointed 73% of active judges.

Given that the federal government is located within its jurisdiction, it is not surprising that plaintiffs would disproportionately bring cases in the D.C. District. The court, however, is seen by some on the right as hostile to President Trump. It includes several prominent judges – including Chief Justice Jeb Boasberg, Tanya Chutkan, and Beryl Howell – who have a history of issuing adverse rulings against the president and some of his confidantes, including Steve Bannon, Michael Flynn, and Peter Navarro. The court also conducted the Jan. 6 trials.

After the D.C. District Court, plaintiffs have brought the most cases before the Districts of Massachusetts and Maryland, whose rosters of active judges are each 90% or more Democrat-appointed.

The clash between the courts and the president has only intensified as Trump and his allies have publicly panned certain rulings, with some in Congress calling to impeach the judges who issued them.

There are several nuances to RCI’s analysis.

Though district courts generally assign cases randomly, each court has its own practice for divvying up cases.

Additionally, the pool of judges who may hear such cases extends beyond the nearly 680 active district court judges to include several hundred long-tenured judges, 65 years of age or older, who have taken senior status and work part-time. In 2024, such judges presided over 25% of all completed trials.

Some of the district courts in which plaintiffs have brought cases against Trump have a significant percentage of Republican-appointed judges on senior status. In the Western District of Washington, for example, where plaintiffs have filed 14 cases, Democratic presidents appointed all seven active judges. But 11 more judges in that district have taken senior status, eight of whom were appointed by either George W. Bush or Ronald Reagan.

Two such judges have entered universal injunctions in cases challenging President Trump’s policies. In Shilling v. U.S., Senior U.S. District Judge Benjamin H. Settle, a Bush appointee, ordered a preliminary injunction barring the administration from implementing its executive order “Prioritizing Military Excellence and Readiness,” which found gender dysphoria presumptively disqualifying for those in the armed services. And in Washington v. Trump, Reagan-appointed Senior District Judge John C. Coughenour issued a universal injunction in the form of a temporary restraining order barring the administration from implementing its executive order “Protecting the Meaning and Value of American Citizenship,” which would curtail the practice of birthright citizenship.

Nevertheless, in the nearly 40 cases RCI identified in which judges entered a universal injunction, Democratic presidents appointed more than four in five of those presiding:

Democrat and Republican administrations alike have faced challenges from plaintiffs in courts perceived to be favorably inclined towards their challengers.

In 2022, plaintiffs sued the Biden Food and Drug Administration over its approval of the abortion drug mifepristone in federal court in Amarillo, Texas. The odds were overwhelmingly in their favor that the case would come before the single presiding judge there, based upon the way the District Court for the Northern District of Texas assigns cases. The judge, an opponent of abortion, entered a nationwide injunction halting the policy.

Texas’ courts, alongside some others, often assign cases to divisions – or subdistricts – which may leave a single judge handling more than 50% of cases. Judges in that state reportedly entered injunctions blocking “immigration programs, transgender rights and labor policies from the Obama era,” the New York Times reported last year, which Democrats see as evidence of forum shopping.

Lamenting Texas’ Northern District practice, in April 2023, then-Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) wrote to the district’s chief judge that it should randomly assign cases.

“Currently, a federal statute allows each district court to decide for itself how to assign cases. This gives courts the flexibility to address individual circumstances in their districts and among their judges. But if that flexibility continues to allow litigants to hand-pick their preferred judges and effectively guarantee their preferred outcomes, Congress will consider more prescriptive requirements,” Sen. Schumer warned.

Last year, the Judicial Conference of the United States, the policy-making body for the federal judiciary, issued guidance encouraging the district-wide random assignment of cases. That that guidance is non-binding speaks to Sen. Schumer’s point – a point Republicans are now emphasizing – that Congress ultimately controls the Article III courts.

To that end, federal lawmakers, sometimes on a bipartisan basis, have introduced legislation to curtail forum shopping – to no avail.

District court judges’ increasing willingness to provide universal relief – starting during the first Trump administration – has only further incentivized the practice for those who want to hamstring a president’s agenda.

With the Supreme Court poised to rule within weeks on the legitimacy of universal injunctions, an opinion reining in that remedy could decrease the impact of forum shopping.

Tyler Durden
Sun, 06/15/2025 – 15:10

Marc Andreessen’s ‘Cold War’ Warning: U.S. Must AI Race To Prevent CCP Robot Overlords, Techno-Marxist Brainwashing

Marc Andreessen’s ‘Cold War’ Warning: U.S. Must AI Race To Prevent CCP Robot Overlords, Techno-Marxist Brainwashing

The United States must triumph in the escalating “Cold War” against China for AI supremacy or risk a future where robots, powered by Marxist ideology, rule over Americans and the rest of the world, warned billionaire tech investor Marc Andreessen in a recent interview.

There is a two-horse race. This is shaping up to be the equivalent of what the Cold War was against the Soviet Union in the last century. It is shaping up to be like that,” Andreessen, co-founder of the towering venture capital fund Andreessen Horowitz, told Jack Altman of the Uncapped podcast this week.

Andreessen predicted that AI will serve as the “control layer” for all aspects of society, from education and healthcare to transportation and law. The tech investor then raised the dangerous prospects of children being taught by Chinese AI, infused with Marxist principles and Xi Jinping’s ideology.


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China does have ambitions to basically imprint the world on their ideas of how society should be organized, how the world should be run, and they obviously intend to fully proliferate their technology, which they’re doing in many areas,” the Trump-supporting Silicon Valley titan added. “The world, 50 years from now, 20 years from now, is going to be running on Chinese AI or American AI. Those are your choices.”

Andreessen predicted that AI will serve as the “control layer” for all aspects of society, from education and healthcare to transportation and law. The tech investor then raised the dangerous prospects of children being taught by Chinese AI, infused with Marxist principles and Chinese President Xi Jinping’s ideology.

Andreessen’s comments echo those of fellow venture capitalist Vinod Khosla, who recently said failing to lead in AI could allow China’s authoritarian regime to impose its oppressive vision globally.

China can use AI in cyber warfare or physical warfare on the battlefield, but the one I worry about even more is the economic power that AI will give a nation that moves fast and wins the race,” Khosla told X interviewer Mario Nawfal. 

“One you have economic power, I think it’s trivially easy by 2030 to imagine China providing free doctors to the whole planet, free tutors to every child on the planet, and using, essentially, free goods and services to spread their political philosophy.”

Khosla, who co-founded Sun Microsystems and later became one of OpenAI’s earliest backers through his venture capital firm Khosla Ventures, went a step further by China’s possession of powerful AI a potentially deadly threat to the world.

“The biggest risk is AI in Chinese hands—or any bad hands. The more powerful the entity, the bigger the risk,” the Indian-American technologist said. “If somebody used a nuclear weapon, it’s verifiable. AI, when used, may not be verifiable.”

President Donald Trump has taken a series of steps to ensure the U.S. maintains its edge in the AI race against China. In January 2025, the president signed an executive order repealing Biden’s restrictive AI diffusion regulations, which blocked U.S. tech companies from sharing its innovations with allies. 

In May 2025, the Trump administration brokered landmark agreements with Saudi Arabia and the UAE, enabling the Gulf nations to acquire advanced AI tech, including tens of thousands of Nvidia semiconductors and investments in data centers critical for AI development. The UAE deal, valued at $200 billion, allows the import of up to half a million Nvidia chips, positioning the emirate as a hub for AI innovation. Saudi Arabia’s $600 billion agreement with the U.S. similarly focus on securing chips and fostering AI infrastructure.

Tyler Durden
Sun, 06/15/2025 – 14:35