Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

This is because it concerns the country’s second-largest city, could disrupt one of its top economic hubs, and might evolve into an irredentist campaign by Mexican nationalists and their US leftist allies.

Large-scale unrest has gripped parts of Los Angeles since late last week in response to the Immigration and Customs Enforcement’s (ICE) recent operations against illegal immigrants there. Trump authorized the National Guard to restore order but clashes still continue. The unrest poses a pressing national security threat since it concerns the country’s second-largest city, could disrupt one of its top economic hubs, and might evolve into an irredentist campaign by Mexican nationalists and their US leftist allies.

The immediate roots are the Biden Administration’s de facto open borders policy that allowed millions of illegal immigrants, mostly from Ibero-America, to flood into the country. Then there’s the influence of summer 2020’s unrest, which convinced activists and agitators alike, including the professionals among them, that they can riot with impunity. And finally, the Mexican Cession from the mid-19th century is also relevant, which some Mexican nationalists and their US leftist allies refuse to recognize as legitimate.

These factors combined to catalyze the ongoing unrest, which has seen the involvement of various NGOs, radical leftist movements, and like-minded philanthropist Neville Singham according to “Data Republican’s” viral two–part investigation on X. This has led to parallels being drawn to summer 2020’s Hybrid War of Terror on America that was analyzed here at the time. To be sure, some of the participants in both were genuinely autonomous, but others were and are operating as part of something larger.

Observers should also remember that Democrat-aligned elements of the US “deep state” funneled American arms to Mexican cartels as part of Operation Fast & Furious, which they maintain was a botched sting operation though critics remain convinced that it was something more nefarious. It therefore can’t be ruled out that some of these forces at the very least wouldn’t mind if those cartels sow chaos on the US’ side of the border on the pretext of “protesting” ICE to create problems for Trump.

Beyond the speculative involvement of (possibly “deep state”-backed) Mexican cartels, there are also autonomously acting Mexican nationalists among the illegal immigrant, naturalized, and second- and later-generation communities in LA that are participating in the unrest together with US leftists. They’re allies in that neither recognizes the legitimacy of the mid-19th century’s Mexican Cession, ergo their support for open borders in order to “reclaim” this lost territory as a form of “historical justice”.

Some multipolar-minded apologists have likened this to the uprisings in Crimea and Donbass after “EuroMaidan”, but the key difference is that they were led by Ukrainian citizens of Russian origin who rebelled in defense of their human rights after radicals seized power and threatened to subjugate them. By contrast, the Trump Administration hasn’t signaled that it’ll do anything similar against legal American residents of Ibero-American origin, it’s simply enforcing the law by expelling illegal immigrant invaders.

Legal US residents of Ibero-American origin can freely speak, publish in, and teach their languages. They also have equal rights (apart from being unable to vote till obtaining citizenship) and benefited from “affirmative action”. For all intents and purposes, Mexican nationalists who legally reside in the US can live as if they’re in Mexico (even better since they otherwise wouldn’t have left) so long as they remain law-abiding, thus discrediting the “historical justice” argument that some have used to justify the unrest.

Nevertheless, some of the rioters are clearly driven by nationalist motives as proven by them waving the Mexican flag as they violently attack members of the security services, hence the importance in quelling the unrest as soon as possible so that it doesn’t spiral out of control. There are also political and economic considerations too, but these pale in comparison to the need to expel illegal immigrants from the border region, especially those Mexicans who might resort to terrorism to further irredentist plans.

About that, it’s possible that violent irredentism isn’t all that popular among Mexican illegal immigrants but that (possibly “deep state”-backed) cartels from there and elsewhere like Venezuela are trying to push this notion, hoping that it’ll provoke copycat unrest in other major cities. Most of them in the US have significant Ibero-American populations, including illegal immigrants, so the real orchestrators (if there are any as is speculated) might hope to “inspire” “solidarity protests” across the US.

All that can be known for sure is that the images of Mexican flag-waving rioters in LA naturally give rise to worries of an emerging irredentist campaign that poses a pressing national security threat to the US and therefore challenges Trump to employ all legal means at his disposal to put it down or else. Despite everything that he’s done so far following the letter of the law, his opponents might soon dishonestly accuse him of behaving as a “fascist dictator”, all in an attempt to “inspire” more unrest.

Therein lies the objective of the real orchestrators and/or political opportunists depending on one’s belief about who’s behind the riots: it’s all about eroding Trump’s authority, misportraying him as a “fascist dictator”, and altogether galvanizing the Democrats far ahead of fall 2026’s midterms. These goals are being advanced by autonomously acting participants and professionals alike, with some of the first not realizing the role that they’re playing the larger scheme, thus making it a Color Revolution.

This description doesn’t automatically imply regime change intentions nor the involvement of a foreign government, it only refers to the weaponization of protests, which is nowadays common across the world after the relevant socio-political technology wildly proliferated over the past quarter-century. The reported involvement of so many diverse actors in this one shows how serious the attempt is to destabilize the Trump Administration, which could have far-reaching global implications if it succeeds.

US petrochemical producers may have found themselves on the front line of global trade wars, BNEF reports, with China’s dependence on the US for feedstocks (see “Chinese Plastics Factories Face Mass Closure As US Ethane Supply Evaporates“) blunting the impact of its dominations of exports of rare earth metals.

China imported more than 565,000 barrels per day of petrochemical feedstocks from the US in 2024 according to the Energy Information Administration, with a value of over $4.7 billion. That dwarfed the $170 million of rare earths the US imported last year, about 70% of which came from China, according to the US Geological Survey.

The figures show the dependence the US and China have developed on each other by ever tightening trade links over the past few decades. While China has a tight grip on refining many metals crucial for industry, it also takes in niche chemicals from the US that are difficult to buy elsewhere.

China leans on naphtha to produce most base chemicals, which are processed further to end up in everyday items like electronics and clothing. However, some plants can switch to cheaper propane when the economics make sense, which they do regularly. Propane dehydrogenation plants however can’t process alternatives like naphtha. The US accounted for over half of all China’s propane imports in 2024. 

US producers have looked to China to buy their ballooning volumes of feedstock, the market value of which has almost quadrupled since 2020. China accounts for almost half of all new mixed-feed ethylene and propylene production capacity set to come online globally over the next four years, based on data compiled by BloombergNEF.

A forced divorce

The honeymoon period may be about to end. Following the implementation of tariffs by President Donald Trump’s administration in April, China retaliated with its own on US imports — including a 125% tariff on feedstocks like propane and ethane. The duty effectively killed the economics of importing US feedstocks. 

Alternative sources of propane may be hard or expensive to come by, with producers in the Middle East sending most of their supplies to India, South Korea and Japan. While some rerouting could take place, Middle Eastern players could use the lack of alternatives for China’s propane dehydrogenation plants to charge a premium. China’s propane dehydrogenation operators, like Hengli Petrochemical, have already suffered from weak margins over the past years. Many may opt to shut their operations temporarily.

A messy settlement

China moved quickly to remove tariffs on US ethane as trade talks commenced. However, while China seems willing to buy US ethane, the US administration may no longer allow it. Enterprise Products Partners — the largest US-based exporter of petrochemical feedstocks — received a notice on Wednesday from the Bureau of Industry and Security at the US Department of Commerce, denying licenses to export ethane to China on the basis that such flows “pose an unacceptable risk of use in or diversion to a ‘military end use’ in China.” Energy Transfer received a similar communication.

China’s ethane cracking capacity is dwarfed by its capacity to process naphtha and propane, but almost all of its ethane imports come from the US. The restrictions will have a significant impact on the Lianyungang and Tianjin plants, owned by Satellite Chemical, Sinopec and INEOS. SP Chemicals, a Singapore-based producer, sources most of its feedstock from Enterprise Products Partners.

As the trade war continues, it appears commodities may lead the confrontation, with players on both sides set to feel the pain.

Tesla’s robotaxi reveal and Waymo’s rapid expansion across U.S. cities have dominated the conversation around autonomous vehicles (AVs) in North America. A new note from Goldman Sachs provides a framework showing that AVs have officially entered the commercialization phase in ridesharing and trucking, and their proliferation into the real economy is poised for hyperscale well into the 2030s.

“There are already over 1,500 Waymo robotaxis on roads in the U.S. Tesla hopes to begin commercial robotaxi operations in June in Austin,” a team of Goldman analysts led by Mark Delaney wrote in a note to clients Monday morning. 

The U.S. rideshare market, currently valued at $58 billion, is expected to swell to over $336 billion by 2030. Delaney estimates robotaxis will capture about $7 billion of that market, representing 8% of total rideshare bookings. While this figure may seem modest, it represents a significant leap from the $300 million projected for 2025, with a nearly 90% compound annual growth rate.

Waymo, Google’s AV subsidiary, leads the autonomous vehicle space with 1,500 vehicles operating across various metro areas nationwide, logging over 250,000 paid rides per week. Those cities include Phoenix, San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Austin, with plans to expand into seven U.S. cities by the end of 2026. Meanwhile, Tesla is preparing to launch its robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, later this week. 

Delaney forecasted, “With this rollout from Waymo, coupled with planned launches from others including Tesla and Zoox, we expect over 1.8K commercial autonomous vehicles in the US by the end of 2025 and 35K in 2030.” 

Some early signs of AV scaling include Waymo’s rollout…

Delaney noted that “falling costs are another key enabler” in the AV space for companies to hyperscale their robotaxi fleets well into the 2030s. 

Driving costs per mile for AVs have also been sliding…

Shifting gears, the analysts turn to AV-enabled Class 8 trucks—heavy-duty vehicles with a gross vehicle weight rating (GVWR) exceeding 33,000 pounds. These include 18-wheelers, dump trucks, and other large freight haulers that move goods across America’s highways.

They noted that while AV trucks are a small part of the Class 8 fleet today, their potential to lower costs and extend operational hours (free from driver time limits) is compelling. Goldman forecasts 25,000 AV trucks on the road by 2030, capturing $18 billion of the freight market—just under 3% of total trucked miles. 

Here’s the latest on the robotaxi industry:

• Elon Musk Confirms June Launch For Robotaxis In Austin

• 500,000 Robotaxis To Hit China’s Streets By 2030

• Where Are Waymo’s Robotaxis Today?

• First Driverless Heavy Duty Trucking Service Launched On US Public Roads

Pro Subs can read the full note here …. 

Authored by Mary Prenon via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

With median home prices exceeding $1 million in many U.S. housing markets, some real estate professionals are drawing attention to a 28-year-old capital gains tax law, citing it as one factor contributing to the nationwide housing shortage.

A recent report from Realtor.com shows that California is home to 8 of the 10 most expensive housing markets in the United States. San Jose tops the list with a median sales price of $2.02 million, followed by Anaheim and San Francisco at $1.45 million and $1.32 million, respectively.

Ken DeLeon, founder of DeLeon Realty in Palo Alto, told The Epoch Times that some communities in the San Francisco Bay Area have experienced skyrocketing home prices, which have jumped 667 percent on average since 1997—the year the Taxpayer Relief Act was signed into law, allowing married homeowners to exclude up to $500,000 in capital gains from the sale of their primary residence, and $250,000 for single homeowners.

“This outdated capital gains law has resulted in an artificially-created housing shortage,” DeLeon said. “A lot of older people who have lived in their homes for 30 years or more want to sell, but the value of those homes has tripled or quadrupled now. Some of these sellers could now be facing capital gains taxes of over $1 million.”

According to a HUD report, the median cost of a single-family home in 1997 was $143,000, compared with $414,000 in April 2025, as reported by the National Association of Realtors.

With the combined federal and state capital gains tax rate now at 37.1 percent in California, potential sellers seeking to avoid elevated tax exposure are choosing instead to remain in their current properties.

As a result, DeLeon said inventory levels have reached historic lows and sellers are stuck in a tax trap.

“We’ve seen more than 57 percent drop in inventory in the Silicon Valley, which means a lot of single people and young families are also stuck in expensive rentals,” he said.

With properties typically listed at $2 million to $5 million in the region, primarily it’s employees from high-paying tech companies such as Apple, Google, Adobe, and Oracle who can afford them, DeLeon said.

“People do want to buy, but listings are scarce. And the housing shortage is driving prices even higher,” he said.

DeLeon contends that the economic ripple effects of the almost three-decade-old tax formula is causing not only fewer home sales, but less revenue from transfer taxes, reset property taxes, and local economic activity.

California is not alone in facing this capital gains crisis. Bianca D’Alessio, a broker with Nest Seekers International in New York City, is seeing a similar situation with her clients, particularly owners of brownstones in the borough of Brooklyn.

“We have older people who may have bought their home 30 years ago for less than $100,000 and now they’re worth $4 million,” she told The Epoch Times. “They may want to downsize and move, but they can’t afford to pay all those capital gains taxes.”

D’Alessio explained that while these homeowners will still walk away with a significant profit, they’ll probably want to pay cash for their next home, which could often be a condo with hefty monthly maintenance charges.

“While they’ll still enjoy the profits of their sale, that huge chunk of money going towards capital gains is cutting into their nest eggs for their futures,” she said.

Unlike California’s Silicon Valley, there has been an uptick in inventory in Manhattan, with a wealth of recent new construction. “There are a lot of opportunities for buyers now, and sellers are definitely negotiating more,” D’Alessio said.

However, existing home sellers and those who want to purchase turn-of-the-century classics are still stuck in a holding pattern, she said.

“The bottom line is that sellers know how much their house is worth, yet when they see the amount of capital gains taxes they have to pay, it’s frustrating for them to see how much less they’re actually going to receive.”

Congressional Action

A bipartisan effort to resolve the issue is already underway in Congress. Reps. Jimmy Panetta (D-Calif.) and Mike Kelly (R-Pa.), along with many others, in February reintroduced the More Homes on the Market Act to make housing more available and affordable for Americans.

The legislation would update the tax code by doubling the exclusion of capital gains from the sale of a principal residence. For single sellers, the exemption would move to $500,000 and for couples, to $1 million. The bill is designed to incentivize homeowners to sell their properties, thereby increasing the supply of housing and helping to alleviate affordability challenges across the country.

“If this bill is not passed, the declines in housing inventory, along with the consequences of greater housing costs and increased homelessness, will only get worse,” DeLeon noted.

“Electing to deny this bill will push America further into a housing market where only large, wealthy corporations can purchase the increasingly rare single-family home.”

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) is advocating for the passage of the bill. In a just-released white paper, NAR indicated that “homeowners are facing a looming tax penalty simply for staying in their homes too long.”

Noting that the capital gains exclusion hasn’t been updated for inflation for 28 years, NAR called the thresholds “outdated” and said it was “distorting the housing market.”

A recent NAR study quoted in the white paper indicates that 34 percent of homeowners today (29 million) could already exceed the $250,000 capital gains exclusion cap for single filers. More than 10 percent (8 million) have potential gains above the $500,000 threshold for couples filing jointly. The study also predicts that by 2030, 56 percent of homeowners, or 47 million, are projected to potentially exceed the $250,000 threshold, and nearly 23 percent (20 million) could surpass $500,000.

“At a time when many of these homeowners are considering downsizing or moving to a retirement facility, more and more are facing gains well in excess of the exclusions, which can leave them owing many thousands of dollars in taxes and reduce their ability to afford a new home,” the study states.

DeLeon also noted that seniors often rely on their home investment to sustain them throughout their lives as a supplement to their social security checks.

“However, many may now find themselves near poverty and cash-poor when high taxes prevent them from selling their homes,” he said.

He is encouraging everyone nationwide to contact their congressional representatives to push for passage of the More Homes on the Market Act.

“Let us enact a policy that will make home ownership easier for everyone and allow the societal benefits of greater home ownership to become a reality again,” DeLeon said.

It’s been no secret that Russia has been getting more heavily involved in Iran’s nuclear program, and interestingly at a moment Moscow has offered to mediate between Washington and Tehran on the question of uranium enrichment and a new nuclear monitoring deal.

On Monday, in a surprise headline given the massive, ambitious scope, Iranian state sources have said Russia will construct eight nuclear power plants in Iran, two of which are already under construction.

“Russia is contracted to build eight nuclear power plants in Iran, including four in the southern city of Bushehr,” Ebrahim Rezaei, spokesman for the national security and foreign policy committee, announced on Monday.

This marks a monumental leap forward in the Iran-Russia relationship, after the two have deepened military cooperation in relation to the Ukraine war (where Russian forces have heavily relied on Iranian Shahed drones), given that a mere several years ago, Moscow was not even ready to sell Iran nuclear fuel.

But EIGHT? Some critics have denounced this as but PR nonsense and a disservice to the Iranian people, given that by some estimates Russia has already taken over a billion dollars from Iran for rebuilding just one Bushehr nuclear site with hardly any progress to show.

For example, of prior problems and severe timeline setbacks one industry source described:

Iran has one operating nuclear reactor, a 1,000-MW Russian-designed VVER unit at the southern port city of Bushehr, on the coast of the Persian Gulf. Two more VVER-1000 units are under construction at the site. Work on Unit 2 began in 2019, with commercial operation now expected in 2029 after earlier reports said the unit could come online last year. Iranian media reported that installation of safety equipment in Unit 2 began earlier in February, along with excavation works for the water cooling pump houses of both units.

Russian state media appears to also be confirming the announcement and hugely ambitious agreement:

Russia to build EIGHT nuclear power plants in Iran — Tehran’s National Security spox pic.twitter.com/7lgx5ycSUE

— RT (@RT_com) June 9, 2025

According to a broader background on Iranian and Russian energy cooperation from Arms Control Association:

The conclusion of an agreement in which Russia will supply Iran with nuclear fuel for a 1,000-megawatt light-water nuclear power reactor marks the latest step in a decade-long controversy.

Russian Federal Agency for Atomic Energy Director Alexander Rumyantsev announced Feb. 27 that Tehran and Moscow had finally signed off on a deal to supply fuel for the reactor near the southern Iranian city of Bushehr for a period of 10 years. Although the United States has long opposed the reactor project, the Bush administration did not publicly criticize the agreement.

In 1995, Russia agreed to finish the reactor project, which is widely reported to be worth about $800 million. The original German contractor abandoned the project following Iran’s 1979 revolution.

A final deal was delayed several times as the two sides negotiated a provision that requires Iran to return the spent reactor fuel to Russia. The arrangement was designed to reduce the risk that Iran will separate plutonium from the spent fuel. Separated plutonium can be used as fissile material in nuclear weapons. (See ACT, October 2003.)

Iran does not have a known facility for reprocessing spent nuclear fuel to obtain plutonium, although Tehran has conducted related experiments.

Russia and Iran have in recent years strengthened their bilateral cooperation around energy, with President Putin touting that two countries have achieved a “comprehensive strategic partnership” which sets “ambitious goals and outlines guidelines for deepening bilateral cooperation in the long term.”

Iran is expanding its Bushehr nuclear power plant by building the second and third units of the facility.

The reactor is designed in accordance with the standards of the International Atomic Energy Agency.

Follow: https://t.co/mLGcUTSA3Q pic.twitter.com/7vi9v0rNvA

— Press TV 🔻 (@PressTV) June 9, 2025

All of this is of course set amid the backdrop of biting US-led sanctions targeting both Russian and Iranian economies and societies. Both have relied on BRICS and non-aligned countries to meet their growing military-industrial needs.

Authored by Martin Young via CoinTelegraph.com,

The race to develop artificial general intelligence (AGI) still has a long way to run, according to Apple researchers who found that leading AI models still have trouble reasoning. 

Recent updates to leading AI large language models (LLMs) such as OpenAI’s ChatGPT and Anthropic’s Claude have included large reasoning models (LRMs), but their fundamental capabilities, scaling properties, and limitations “remain insufficiently understood,” said the Apple researchers in a June paper called “The Illusion of Thinking.” 

They noted that current evaluations primarily focus on established mathematical and coding benchmarks, “emphasizing final answer accuracy.” 

However, this evaluation does not provide insights into the reasoning capabilities of the AI models, they said. 

The research contrasts with an expectation that artificial general intelligence is just a few years away.

Apple researchers test “thinking” AI models

The researchers devised different puzzle games to test “thinking” and “non-thinking” variants of Claude Sonnet, OpenAI’s o3-mini and o1, and DeepSeek-R1 and V3 chatbots beyond the standard mathematical benchmarks. 

They discovered that “frontier LRMs face a complete accuracy collapse beyond certain complexities,” don’t generalize reasoning effectively, and their edge disappears with rising complexity, contrary to expectations for AGI capabilities.

“We found that LRMs have limitations in exact computation: they fail to use explicit algorithms and reason inconsistently across puzzles.”

Verification of final answers and intermediate reasoning traces (top chart), and charts showing non-thinking models are more accurate at low complexity (bottom charts). Source: Apple Machine Learning Research 

AI chatbots are overthinking, say researchers

They found inconsistent and shallow reasoning with the models and also observed overthinking, with AI chatbots generating correct answers early and then wandering into incorrect reasoning.

The researchers concluded that LRMs mimic reasoning patterns without truly internalizing or generalizing them, which falls short of AGI-level reasoning.

“These insights challenge prevailing assumptions about LRM capabilities and suggest that current approaches may be encountering fundamental barriers to generalizable reasoning.”

Illustration of the four puzzle environments. Source: Apple

The race to develop AGI

AGI is the holy grail of AI development, a state where the machine can think and reason like a human and is on a par with human intelligence. 

In January, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said the firm was closer to building AGI than ever before. “We are now confident we know how to build AGI as we have traditionally understood it,” he said at the time. 

In November, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei said that AGI would exceed human capabilities in the next year or two. “If you just eyeball the rate at which these capabilities are increasing, it does make you think that we’ll get there by 2026 or 2027,” he said.  

With just three weeks left in the second quarter and the summer season in full swing, a key question emerges: What’s the state of the consumer? 

Goldman Sachs analysts Kate McShane, Mark Jordan, and others published a note on Monday offering valuable insights into consumer trends following meetings with the management and investor relations of Dollar General, Dollar Tree, Five Below, Leslie’s, and Ollie’s Bargain Outlet. This comes as the first half of the year was marked by market turbulence, sliding sentiment, and escalating trade war tensions. 

McShane’s discussions with the management teams of DG, DLTR, FIVE, LESL, and OLLI painted a picture of cautious optimism. While companies are seeing pockets of resilience, persistent economic pressures, particularly elevated inflation and interest rates, continue to weigh heavily on discretionary spending, especially among the working poor segment. 

Longer-form takeaways from the analysts’ meetings with DG, DLTR, FIVE, LESL, and OLLI suggest that consumers are increasingly seeking value as retailers navigate ongoing challenges, including inflation, tariffs, and shifts in consumer spending behavior.

Dollar General

Non-consumables turned positive in 1Q: DG delivered growth in seasonal, home, and apparel, as noted on the 1Q earnings call. Per management, the trade-in customer helps as they have a higher propensity to put non-consumables items in the basket, and the company benefited from a later Easter. Additionally, DG saw benefits from an ongoing focus on its non-consumables strategy. The company called out strong sell-through of its brand partnerships, such as Dolly Parton. DG’s goal is to increase the NCI mix by at least 100 bps by the end of 2027 and to run closer to 20% over the next 5 years.

Promotional activity in FY25 is expected to be similar y/y: DG expects the promotional environment to be pretty neutral y/y for the full year. Per management, promotions were a bit higher in 1Q, while DG also delivered strong gross margin improvement. On the 1Q earnings call, DG noted that it took the opportunity to offer customers targeted price markdowns, while some promotional activity was related to store closures, which was a bit outsized compared to expectations for the remainder of the year.

Dollar Tree

Drivers behind gross margin in 2H: Management expects FY gross margin improvement of 50-75 bps despite the increased costs in 2Q. They clarified that the additional $70mn in COGS is a mix of tariff rates from different countries and products. In 1Q, they started to increase prices to mitigate tariffs: management gave the example of increasing prices on foil containers, which was a successful implementation as they were still able to deliver value at higher prices. However, many of their products are pre-ticketed with old prices, so they are investing an additional $40mn in SG&A labor to implement new sticker prices onto the products. The labor will also likely cost them an additional ~$50-60mn in 3Q and 4Q, but will not persist into 2026. However, management is optimistic that they will be able to sustain their margin as the price increases should recover these incremental costs.

1Q’s bigger basket was driven by multi-price: A significant driver of the larger basket this quarter was the multi-price segment, as its expanded assortment is resonating with the consumer. Management highlighted that multi-price combined with seasonality drove an extremely successful Easter, as customers buying multi priced items during the event multiplied sales.

Five Below

Merchandising changes will bring forward better assortment in 2H: FIVE has been actively working on their product pipeline since the latter part of last year, as they are making sure to emphasize on trends. They have currently pulled forward inventory receipts on trending products and will continue to build on the momentum they’ve seen in their successful worlds. Specifically, they called out success in collectibles, beauty, seasonal decor, and growth in Five Beyond (+MSD growth). Management noted that they are excited for the holiday season, and are capitalizing on opportunities they missed out on last year, such as stocking stuffers. They are also continuing to look at higher price points (5, 10, 15) to drive incremental sales while still providing value.

Real estate pipeline continuing to grow: Management sees further opportunity for new store growth in the future, and has been working on deals for 2026 and beyond. Given the recent improvement in their new store productivity, management is optimistic about their pipeline and their capability to deliver strong performance. They are also seeing a large amount of store dislocations in the retail environment, and have been able to get designation rights on those stores. Management provided the example of the Party City bankruptcy, as taking advantage of their dislocations led to FIVE’s expansion in the Pacific Northwest. They also emphasized that although they paused their store growth this year to focus on operations, they are still a growth company.

Leslie’s

Pro initiative: Management noted that the Pro initiative is focused on expanding service to professional customers that can be supported in any brick and mortar location, not just through Pro-stores. Management also highlighted some benefits of Pro initiative like improved inventory alignment (stocking right SKUs for pros), increased efficiency in serving pro customers, expanded awareness, and better inventory management.

Market share: The company noted that the post-covid environment has been hard to analyze due to limited market share data (especially in residential space) and unique industry dynamics. Management noted that there has been signs of consumer pressure and increased competition from big box retailers, however, the company is focusing on internal metrics like traffic, conversion, and Pro segment growth. The company noted on making efforts to regain market share by tracking customer behavior, enhancing product availability (moving some online-only items into stores), and expanding their loyalty program.

Technology: The company noted that the new technology has been rolled out to the first 100 stores, with plans to expand across full store network. Management highlighted that it supports a subscription model, where customers using the technology, especially the highest loyalty tier, would show significant higher average spend. While the exact financial impact is not yet measurable, the company noted that the early returns are considered strong and that the company is emphasizing prominent in-store placement to drive awareness and early adoption.

Ollie’s

Bankruptcies will provide them surplus inventory in the 2H and long term: Management noted that tariff related disruptions will bring inventory momentum in the 2H of the year; but outside of that, they are still seeing significant amounts of inventory from bankruptcies. Bankruptcies usually lead to three opportunities of inventory: 1) the initial abandoned product that was already manufactured and needs to be sold because other products are coming (~6 months of product), 2) products within the now bankrupt store (~9-12 month trail from bankruptcy), and 3) manufacturers needing new vendors (such as OLLI) to fill in the orders previously made by bankrupt stores. Ultimately, bankruptcies can lead to multiple years of products, as management provided the example of Bed Bath and Beyond leading to three years worth of closeout supply. Management highlighted that the last stage of bankruptcies can also lead to lasting relationships with suppliers, as it creates a cycle of them returning to Ollie’s to handle other excess inventory. These permanent relationships lead management to be firmly optimistic about the closeout supply, as they can resort to these manufacturers even if the retail environment recovers. Management noted that the closeout industry is currently worth $100bn, $40bn of which their categories are in, and OLLI does business in $2bn of that share, showcasing there is more market share for them to take.

Management continues to focus on investing in value and price: After the Big Lots bankruptcy, OLLI was able to take over many of their CPG deals, which have led to outperformances in their consumables category. Some investors have questioned whether adding consumables to the mix will be dilutive to margin, but management noted that it has not created a significant drag on margin so far; rather, seasonal events have more of an impact on margin as some discretionary seasonal items are margin rich. Management noted that even if consumables do create slight pressure on margin, they are more focused on investing in their relationships with CPG vendors. As their relationships become more meaningful, they will be able to negotiate more on price and take more market share, which will be accretive to earnings in the long run.

The analysts also provided a snapshot of hardlines/broadlines Q1 results of retailers under their stock coverage.

One thing remains clear: working-class and low-income consumers are still feeling financial pressure. On the positive side—though not highlighted in the report—falling gas prices have offered some modest relief. However, this is being offset by generationally high credit card interest rates and sticky food prices, which continue to strain household budgets.

In early May it was first reported that a US-supplied Patriot air-defense system that was based in Israel would be refurbished and sent to Ukraine. This was despite what the White House’s National Security Council said at the time in a statement: “President Trump has been clear: he wants the war in Ukraine to end and the killing to stop.”

But American and Western arms for Ukraine have continued flowing, with no end in sight, despite what was a very brief stoppage of maybe a couple days earlier in Trump’s term. Israel has just revealed that it wasn’t merely “one” Patriot battery transferred to Ukraine, but “several”.

Israeli Ambassador to Ukraine Michael Brodsky unveiled in a Sunday interview with Pravda USA that Israel has delivered several MIM-104 Patriot surface-to-air missile systems to Kiev, in a clear significant escalation in its military support to the Zelensky government.

During the opening years of the war Israel largely remained on the sidelines, for fear of damaging sensitive relations with Russia, which has maintained a military presence on the Mediterranean, along Syria’s coast. But times have changed, and Russia could be packing up its Syrian naval and air bases, given the December overthrow of its ally Assad and the Jolani regime being installed in Damascus.

Ambassador Brodsky told the Ukrainian media publication (according to machine translation):

The Patriot systems that we once received from the United States are now in Ukraine. These are Israeli systems that were in service with Israel in the early 90s. We agreed to transfer them to Ukraine. And unfortunately, not much was said about this. But when they say that Israel did not help militarily, this is not true. This is not true,” Brodsky emphasized.

This appears to be confirmation of what Axios reported in late January:

The U.S. military transferred around 90 Patriot air defense interceptors from storage in Israel to Poland this week in order to deliver them to Ukraine, three sources with knowledge of the operation tell Axios.

These are apparently older US-supplied systems which remained in Israel’s stockpile. Still, the NY Times had presented that merely one Patriot battery was being prepped, in this May 4 report for example:

A Patriot air-defense system that was based in Israel will be sent to Ukraine after it is refurbished, four current and former U.S. officials said in recent days, and Western allies are discussing the logistics of Germany or Greece giving another one.

The officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the discussions, declined to describe President Trump’s view of the decision to transfer more Patriot systems to Ukraine.

Israel is perhaps only making this public now in the context of Russia’s air war against Ukrainian cities, and the capital in particular, heating up.

Israel gave its Patriot batteries to Ukraine, Israeli ambassador to Kyiv says in a TV interview. https://t.co/4DJArTlWOx

— Yaroslav Trofimov (@yarotrof) June 9, 2025

Tel Aviv is also facing unprecedented international scrutiny over the ongoing Gaza war, and no doubt wants a PR ‘win’ in the eyes of European nations, some of which are poised to recognize a Palestinian state. Israel seems to be jumping on in support of the European ‘coalition of the willing’ bandwagon, and wants the world to know this.

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Estimated tax payments for the second quarter of 2025 are due on Monday, June 16, with taxpayers who fail to pay on time facing underpayment penalties, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) said in a June 6 statement.

Taxes have to be paid throughout the year on a pay-as-you-go schedule. One way to do this is by withholding taxes from wages, pensions, or government benefits such as social security. The second way is to make estimated tax payments on a quarterly basis.

“Taxpayers that receive income not subject to withholding, such as income from self-employment, gig work, interest, dividends, capital gains, rent, or 1099 earnings, may need to make estimated tax payments throughout the year,” said the agency. “This includes freelancers, retirees, investors, businesses, and corporations.”

Estimated taxes are applicable to taxpayers such as sole proprietors, partners, and S corporation shareholders who expect to have tax liabilities of at least $1,000 in a tax year. For corporations, taxes are applicable if they expect to owe at least $500.

Among individuals, estimated tax payments must be made by people earning money through gig work, sale of goods and services, or freelance work.

Individuals whose incomes are being withheld may also be required to make the quarterly estimated tax payment if sufficient taxes are not being withheld from their wages. To prevent this situation, employed individuals can ask employers to withhold a larger amount from their income.

“Paying on time helps taxpayers avoid falling behind on their taxes and possible underpayment penalties,” the agency said.

The IRS calculates penalties after taking into consideration factors such as the amount of tax underpayment and when the tax was originally due. The agency also charges interest on penalties.

In some cases, the agency may offer to remove or reduce the penalty in cases where the tax underpayment “is the result of a casualty, local disaster, or other unusual circumstance when it would not be fair to impose the penalty,” the IRS said.

Another June Deadline

June 16 is also the due date for taxpayers living and working abroad to file and pay their 2024 taxes.

“U.S. citizens or resident aliens residing overseas or in the military on duty outside the U.S. are allowed a two-month extension to file from the normal April 15 deadline. Since June 15 falls on a Sunday in 2025, the deadline is delayed to Monday, June 16,” the IRS said in a May 22 statement.

In case taxpayers are unable to file returns by June 16, they can request an extension to postpone the filing deadline to Oct. 15.

However, “an extension of time to file is not an extension to pay,” the agency clarified. “Interest will apply to any 2024 tax payments received after April 15, 2025.”

The IRS collected a record $5.1 trillion in revenues for fiscal year 2024, the first time revenues exceeded the $5 trillion mark. This was a roughly 9 percent increase over the revenues collected for the 2023 fiscal year.

The agency processed over 266 million returns and other forms in the last fiscal year and issued nearly $553 billion in refunds.

Meanwhile, the agency is undergoing a leadership change, with the Senate Finance Committee voting in favor of President Donald Trump’s IRS head nominee Billy Long, on June 3. With that vote, Long advances to a full Senate vote.

Sen. Mike Crapo (R-Idaho), the committee chair, has said that if Long is selected to be the IRS head, he will work with him to “ensure the IRS focuses on helping American taxpayers to better understand and meet their tax responsibilities, and that it enforces the tax law with integrity and fairness to all.”

Long has faced opposition from Democrats, who have accused him of lacking direct experience with tax policy.

During his testimony before the Senate Finance Committee on May 20, Long vowed to correct many of the issues plaguing the IRS, including taxpayer complaints of poor customer service and delayed refunds.

Sunnova Energy International Inc. has become the second major publicly traded rooftop solar firm to file for bankruptcy within a year following SunPower’s collapse in August 2024. The bankruptcy filing in Texas underscores the mounting pressure across the green energy space, as the recent Republican-led budget bill passed by Congress includes provisions to eliminate subsidies for solar companies. 

Shares of Sunnova crashed 30% in premarket trading after the company filed for bankruptcy in Texas on Sunday, listing between $10 billion and $50 billion in liabilities and assets. The filing follows earlier warnings about its deteriorating capital structure amid ongoing negotiations with creditors.

Last month, the Trump administration terminated a $3 billion federal loan guarantee program for Sunnova, of which the company had drawn roughly $371 million. The guarantee was part of the Biden-Harris regime’s broader push for green energy, aimed at accelerating the adoption of clean technology in response to what Democrats claim is an imminent “climate crisis.” Their solution? Tax humanity more and buy clean tech—much of it sourced from China. Nothing suspicious here…

Sunnova warned that weakening demand for rooftop panels has been a combination of “stubbornly high interest rates, along with regulatory and political uncertainties” in recent years. 

Ahead of the filing, Sunnova announced last week that it would lay off about 55% of its workforce, or 718 employees, to reduce expenses and begin restructuring efforts.

A last-minute tweak in President Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill,” passed by Congress last month, would eliminate subsidies for solar leasing companies, making rooftop systems less affordable and presumably shrinking demand if the BBB is passed.

According to energy research firm Wood Mackenzie, if the BBB is passed, this would result in as much as 40% less residential solar capacity being installed over the next five years. 

The takeaway isn’t just Sunnova’s bankruptcy—it’s the broader understanding that the rooftop solar installation industry is in serious trouble. For those eyeing jobs or new ventures in the space, it’s probably wise to head to the sidelines until there’s more clarity on BBB and its potential impact on clean energy subsidies.