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Buy-Now-Pay-Later Klarna Crashes As Outlook Cut Exposes Consumer Growth Cracks

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Buy-Now-Pay-Later Klarna Crashes As Outlook Cut Exposes Consumer Growth Cracks

Klarna, the Swedish fintech firm best known for its buy now, pay later services, crashed in premarket trading in New York after it lowered its full-year revenue and gross merchandise value forecasts following a second-quarter active-user miss, overshadowing stronger-than-expected earnings.

The buy-now, pay-later firm now expects 2026 revenue of $4.08 billion to $4.16 billion, down from a previous forecast exceeding $4.34 billion. Gross merchandise value is projected to be $149 billion to $151 billion, compared with earlier guidance of above $155 billion.

Third-quarter revenue is expected to range from $940 million to $980 million, well below the $1.11 billion consensus estimate. The company forecast gross merchandise value of $35 billion to $36 billion, versus expectations of $39.26 billion.

Second-quarter revenue was a bright spot, rising 27% to $1.04 billion and beating estimates, while gross merchandise value reached $36.6 billion. Earnings were 1 cent per share, compared with an expected 6 cent loss. But active users totaled 120 million for the quarter, missing the 122 million estimate.

Klarna cited about $600 million of currency headwinds and a more cautious view of Germany, its largest market by volume. The company left its US outlook unchanged, with US gross merchandise value rising 27% during the quarter.

Klarna noted that “the U.S. remains Klarna’s fastest-growing large region.”

Klarna also said CFO Niclas Neglén will step down in early 2027 after six years in the role.

Nordea analyst Thomas Nilsson provided clients with his first take on the earnings:

Klarna Group plc – Buy/USD 30: Strong Q2 overshadowed by FY26 guidance cut

Klarna delivered a strong Q2 with accelerating growth and improving profitability. GMV rose 18% y/y to USD 36.6bn, revenue increased 27% to USD 1.04bn, and transaction margin dollars grew 42% to USD 446m. Adjusted operating income increased to USD 91m, 100% above Visible Alpha consensus, corresponding to a margin of 9%.

The main negative was guidance. FY26 GMV guidance was cut to USD 149-151bn from >USD 155bn, mainly due to FX headwinds and softer volumes in Europe, particularly Germany. Klarna now expects FY26 adjusted operating income of USD 280-300m, compared with previous guidance of >USD 299m. Conclusion: A strong Q2 report that is overshadowed by the GMV guidance cut. Q3 adjusted operating income guidance is only USD 5-15m due to heavy investments ahead of the peak season. With FY26 guidance lowered by ~7% at the midpoint, we expect negative revisions to consensus estimates in the high single digits. In light of this, we view a negative share price reaction of a similar or greater magnitude as warranted today.

Klarna shares are down 18.5% in premarket trading.

The most staggering figure from Klarna’s earnings report is that more than 120 million consumers now use its payment network for everyday purchases, ranging from groceries and gasoline to airline tickets.

Management identified the US as its fastest-growing market, but that bright spot carries a darker macro warning: increasingly stretched US consumers are turning to short-term financing to cover routine expenses.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 08/18/2026 – 08:50

US Housing Starts Plummet In July, Near COVID Lows

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US Housing Starts Plummet In July, Near COVID Lows

After Housing Starts exploded higher in June (driven by a massive rebound in multi-family units), July was expected to see a reflexive decline of 5.9% MoM…

…things were considerably worse, with US Housing Starts plunging 12.4% MoM (the third major monthly drop in four months)…

On the other hand, the more forward-looking Building Permits (preliminary for July) rose 5.0% MoM (well above the 0.6% MoM expected), after two months in a row of declines.

On a SAAR basis, Starts at back near post-COVID lows while Permits are holding in a four year range…

Under the hood, both Single-Family and Multi-Family movements were stroinger for Permits abut weaker for Starts (after multi-family starts soared last month)…

This shouldn’t be a total surprise after yesterday’s decline in builder sentiment (confidence among US homebuilders dropped for a second month to the lowest level of the year, dragged lower by elevated borrowing costs and higher material and land prices).

It seems recent rises in the mortgage rate (and inventories already at over-stuffed levels, given the slowness of sales) has finally dented the homebuilders’ self-satisfying confidence… and the lack of affordability leaves the American Dream fading into Renter Nation…

Tyler Durden
Tue, 08/18/2026 – 08:42

“Sea Of Red”: Futures Slide As Market Wakes Up To Soaring Bond Yields And Diesel Prices

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“Sea Of Red”: Futures Slide As Market Wakes Up To Soaring Bond Yields And Diesel Prices

US futures are a “sea of red” (as Bloomberg describes it) in early trading as thin summer volumes persist, with the wrong kind of inflation coming to the fore and Monday’s tech selloff weighing on sentiment despite bullish AI news. The recent stock-bonds disconnect is finally being reappraised with US futures lower across the board. As of 8:00am ET, S&P 500 futures fell 0.4% with Nasdaq 100 contracts down 1.1% with Semis, Mag7, and Memory all under pressure, while Software is bid. Nvidia dropped 1.8% as the cost of protecting its debt against default closed in on a high reached last month. Defensives and Energy are leading as investors continue to de-gross / de-lever. Tech stocks drove declines across global markets equities as long-dated bond yields pushed further into multidecade highs and oil prices extended their climb, draining traders’ appetite for risky assets.  Yields on 30-year Treasuries rose 2bps to 5.33%, the highest since 2007 as “yields seem to be reacting to a combination of energy prices, the deteriorating US fiscal situation, elevated credit issuance, and BOJ/JPY dynamics which are all driving term premia higher“, per JPM.  US crude neared $85 a barrel with Brent trading above $91, while the Diesel crack spread rose above $100 for the first time ever, as tensions in the Middle East showed no sign of easing. The dollar was little changed while gold declined. Price pressure concerns are hardly new. But with long-term yields around the globe hitting multi-decade highs, the debate may be shifting toward whether the set-up reflects persistent “sticky” inflation or an AI-driven “growth” dynamic. For the former, the signals are clear to see: persistently elevated oil prices, soaring diesel costs, “Dr. Copper” dynamics and the effects of El Niño. Today’s macro data focus is weekly ADP, Import / Export prices, Housing Starts, Mfg measures, and Pending Home Sales. Tomorrow’s Fed Minutes are likely more impactful as he bond market focuses on next week’s Jackson Hole mtg / Warsh speech

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly lower: Meta Platforms (META) slips 1% as the company heads to court Tuesday for a high-stakes showdown with a coalition of state attorneys general over claims that the company deliberately designed Facebook and Instagram to encourage compulsive use among young users (Apple +0.6%, Microsoft +0.7%, Amazon -0.4%, Alphabet -0.5%, Tesla -1.3%, Nvidia -1.9%)

  • Chipmakers and other AI-related firms slide, weighing on US stock futures, as risk-off sentiment sets in.
  • Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) is down 2% after Raymond James downgraded the clothing company to market perform following the stock’s recent rally.
  • Amylyx Pharmaceuticals (AMLX) rises 26% after saying a late-stage trial of its experimental drug met its primary endpoint for patients who experience low blood sugar levels following bariatric surgery.
  • Aon (AON) slips about 1% on light trading after saying CFO Edmund Reese is leaving after two years in the post.
  • Baidu ADRs (BIDU) drop 6% after the Chinese search-engine operator reported its fifth quarter of free cash outflow in the past six, thanks to soaring capital expenditures. Its revenue was shy of analyst estimates, dragged by underperformance at its subsidiary iQiyi.
  • Bath & Body Works (BBWI) climbs 3% after Citi raised the recommendation on the company to buy, with analyst Paul Lejuez noting a second quarter EPS beat and positive tone about recent product launches.
  • Fabrinet (FN) slides 9% after the process engineering and manufacturing services firm’s Datacom sales disappointed investors.
  • Home Depot (HD) climbs 2% after results beat estimates in the latest quarter, a sign that spending on improvement projects is holding up despite high borrowing and housing costs.
  • Norwegian Cruise (NCLH) falls 2% as Mizuho downgrades the company to neutral, saying cash requirements may pressure the balance sheet.

August’s rebound in chipmakers faltered in premarket trading, with semiconductor stocks sliding 3.4% and Nvidia down almost 2% as its CDS push wider. Equity markets are struggling under the weight of rising borrowing costs as bond investors demand higher premiums to finance spendthrift governments and shield against persistently sticky inflation. Elevated oil prices have also reinforced expectations that central banks will need to tighten monetary policy.

“The Middle East is clearly re-escalating again and long-term interest rates are rising, and these are things that end up corroding the value of equities,” said Emma Moriarty at CG Asset Management. “And in a market where it’s summertime, liquidity is a little bit thinner, it’s a bit more prone to volatility.

In Europe, French 30-year yields hit their highest since 2008, while their UK peers were approaching 6%. Germany’s borrowing costs hit a 15-year high in a major sale of long-dated bonds.  Yardeni Research warned investors are becoming more concerned about the surge in borrowing by AI hyperscalers and questioning whether the Fed will remain sufficiently vigilant on inflation if oil prices climb again.

“We aren’t pushing the panic button,” strategists led by Ed Yardeni noted. “However, we are closely monitoring whether the bond vigilantes might do so.

Events in the Middle East will remain a key point of focus as both the US and Iran show less willingness to compromise. President Donald Trump said he won’t try to revive a stalled truce with the Islamic Republic, dimming prospects for a swift reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. 

For Mohit Kumar at Jefferies, there is “no easy way out” and “further pain in the near term” for energy costs. “We have stayed away from the long end of the curve and rates duration and instead focus on steepeners,” he wrote. “We see no reason to change our portfolio.”

Traders expect tech-stock volatility to continue as investors shift their focus back and forth between robust earnings and worries over whether debt-fueled infrastructure investment will deliver sufficient returns to justify the spending. “You are going to get winners and losers and you’re going to get a lot of wasted capex,” said Justin Onuekwusi, chief investment officer at  St. James’s Place. “That, to me, is a huge future challenge.”

The Stoxx 600 equity index headed for a fifth straight day of losses, the longest such stretch this year. Here are the biggest movers Tuesday:

  • H&M climbed as much as 4.6%, the most in almost 11 months, as Citi places the Swedish fashion retailer on a 90-day positive catalyst watch ahead of its third-quarter results
  • Coloplast shares gained as much as 3.6% after the Danish medical-products maker reported better-than-expected revenue for the third quarter
  • Hemnet Group shares surged as much as 13%, to the highest in more than three months, after JPMorgan double-upgraded the Swedish online property portal to overweight and said it’s “worth revisiting” following a period of underperformance
  • Skan shares rose as much as 8.5% to the highest level in almost a year after the pharma equipment supplier reported first-half results
  • Basilea shares jumped as much as 8.1%, the most in more than a year, after the Swiss biopharmaceutical company reported an increase in revenue for the first half-year and upgraded its outlook for the full year
  • 1&1 shares soared as much as 6.5% as its parent United Internet plans to buy as many as 6 million shares in the telecom company
  • Schott Pharma shares advanced as much as 7.6%, to the highest in almost a year, after Barclays said the German pharma packaging company is leaving its issues “in the rear-view mirror” and is set for growth acceleration
  • Huber+Suhner shares dropped as much as 12%, the most since 2020, after the maker of antenna systems and fiber-optic cables reported weak results that missed expectations in the first half
  • Royal Unibrew fell as much as 9.1%, the most since April, on weak second-quarter earnings because of a soft performance in Northern Europe
  • Scor shares fell as much as 3.1%, the most in eight weeks, as UBS downgrades the reinsurer to sell from neutral

Asian stocks were set to snap a four-session winning streak as gains in oil prices fueled inflation concerns, while rising global bond yields also dimmed the appeal of equities. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index erased an early advance to trade 1% lower. Tech and industrials were the biggest drags on the benchmark while subgauges of healthcare and energy stocks advanced. Japan’s Nikkei led losses among key national indexes in the region, dropping 2.5%. South Korea’s Kospi also reversed early gains and finished lower as trading resumed after a holiday. Asia’s stock benchmark is up more than 2% so far in August following two straight months of losses. Traders will be studying minutes from the Fed’s July policy meeting, due for release later this week, for clues to the central bank’s rate path. Globally, investors are taking profit and reducing exposure, said Jung In Yun, chief executive officer at Fibonacci Asset Management Global in Singapore. “Seems like a short-term issue, not a major catalyst for another steep fall.” Elsewhere, Indonesia’s benchmark index rose to the highest in three months after President Prabowo Subianto’s 2027 budget speech on Friday eased some investor concerns over fiscal discipline.

In rates, treasuries drift lower into the early US session, with futures near lows of the day and the curve extending a steepening move. Longer-dated bond yields have continued to carve out fresh peaks alongside persistently higher energy prices. US yields cheaper by up to 2bp across the long end, with 2s10s and 5s30s steeper by 1bp and 1.4bp on the day, respectively. US 10-year yields trade around 4.74%, cheaper by 1bp, with bunds and gilts lagging by an additional 2bp and 1bp in the sector.  Germany long-end lags, following a €4 billion ($4.6 billion) August 2056 syndicated bond sale at highest yield since 2011. US session focus includes a busy data slate, while another large day for corporate issuance is also expected. IG dollar issuance slate includes a few deals already. Twelve issuers priced $9.1 billion on Monday, pushing monthly volume above $145 billion for a new August record. Issuers paid about 5bps in new issue concessions on deals that were 2 times covered. Another busy session for corporate deals is expected for Tuesday. Treasury auctions this week include $16 billion 20-year bonds (Wednesday) and $8 billion 30-year TIPS (Thursday)

In commodities, Brent crude hit a fresh month-to-date high during European trade against the backdrop of dwindling expectations of an immediate resolution to the US-Iran conflict. Focus is moving beyond crude benchmarks with the widening in crack spreads garnering attention. The Nymex heating oil and ICE gasoil cracks both hit fresh records on Monday, with the former topping $100 a barrel. US gasoline also gained, with the Nymex prompt spread the strongest since 2022. 

This adds further ammunition to the inflation angst surrounding geopolitical disruptions and in Europe serves to raise scrutiny over government balance sheets. France is a standout with short bets on French paper continuing to ratchet higher ahead of upcoming budget negotiations. The recent ascent of precious metals is faltering. Spot gold down 0.5%. 

In FX markets, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index snapped a three-day losing streak to climb 0.1%; oil prices extended gains after prospects for a peace deal between the US and Iran dimmed. USD/JPY rose as much as 0.2% to 159.78, highest since July 31; one-week risk reversals trade at 193bps, puts over calls, compared to Monday’s high of 248bps. GBP/USD slipped as much as 0.2% to 1.3520; data showed UK employers shed more workers in July and job vacancies hit a fresh five-year low. EUR/USD was modestly lower at 1.1575; one-month options sentiment turned bullish for the first time since early March. Kiwi led G-10 losses; NZD/USD fell 0.5% to 0.5872

Looking at the US economic data calendar, we get ADP weekly employment change (8:15am), August New York Fed services business activity, July import/export price index, housing starts, building permits (8:30am), industrial production (9:15am) and pending home sales (10am). No Fed speakers scheduled for the session

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

  • Iran will shift to a “fully offensive” military posture because efforts to negotiate a permanent end to the war with the U.S. have stalled, a senior Iranian official told Reuters on Monday, as Washington ruled out extending ‌a temporary ceasefire agreement. RTRS
  • Yemen’s Iranian-allied Houthi rebels are escalating attacks along the country’s Red Sea coast, shutting down operations at a strategic seaport and pushing closer to the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, an important global shipping chokepoint. WSJ
  • Long-term borrowing costs across major economies hit multi-decade highs on Tuesday as inflation concerns, deficit fears and surging AI bond issuance put pressure on government debt around the world. FT
  • US investment-grade bond sales have set a third straight monthly record, continuing the market’s fastest pace of issuance as spending on the artificial-intelligence buildout fuels corporate borrowing. August’s high-grade debt supply reached $145.2 billion, topping 2020’s total of $136 billion for the month. BBG
  • Chinese AI companies are building systems that perform almost as well as leading models without the most powerful hardware, challenging their US rivals. One measure of China’s long AI push is its dominance in 2023 patent applications. BBG
  • China’s economy showed across-the-board weakness in July and growth likely slipped further below the government’s annual target, sparking a call from Premier Li Qiang on officials to ramp up supportive measures. BBG
  • Apple has acknowledged for the first time that regulatory changes forcing it to loosen control of its App Store are weighing on its more than $100bn services business, a rare concession that antitrust action is beginning to dent one of the company’s most profitable divisions. FT
  • Unemployment in the U.K. was unchanged in the three months through June, while wage growth edged up slightly, likely not moving the dial for Bank of England policymakers who are expected to leave interest rates on hold next month. WSJ
  • Canada faces a new round of 50% U.S. tariffs this week that businesses said could cause job losses in some already struggling industries, while complicating broader negotiations over the future of North America’s free trade agreement. RTRS
  • Anthropic PBC is on track to generate annualized revenue of more than $65 billion based on its current performance, up more than sevenfold from its pace at the end of last year. BBG

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks mostly declined following the weak lead from Wall Street, where all major indices declined amid higher oil prices and yields due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainty following the expiry of the US-Iran MoU and with Trump rejecting a truce extension, while he also threatened to bomb US ally Oman. ASX 200 eked out slight gains amid a slew of earnings, as results from BHP and CSL helped keep the index afloat, although gains were capped by weakness in telecoms, financials and the consumer sectors.
Nikkei 225 retreated beneath the 68,000 level with underperformance in Japan amid upside in yields, higher oil prices, fears of a faster pace of BoJ rate hikes, and the recent weak GDP data. KOSPI initially rallied on return from the long weekend, but then faltered as the early tech resilience waned, and with some suggesting that US President Trump’s decision to reduce military drills with South Korea could partly be due to frustration regarding the pace of South Korea’s investment pledge. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were subdued following the recent disappointing economic data, in which Industrial Production and Retail Sales missed forecasts, although the downside in the mainland was somewhat cushioned after China’s MOFCOM and eight other ministries announced measures to boost consumption in lower-tier cities and counties.

Top Asian News

  • China’s Ministry of Commerce and eight other ministries issued guidance aimed at boosting consumption in lower-tier cities and counties, with fiscal support a key focus. Measures include upgrading retail channels, encouraging new consumption formats, improving local service efficiency and expanding eldercare, childcare, education, healthcare and sports facilities, while eligible personal consumer loans and loans to service-sector operators may receive fiscal interest subsidies.
  • PBoC plans to expand Yuan offshore market and is backing the creation of a new model for real estate developments, adding they will intensify review of macroeconomic and financial efforts.

European bourses are softer across the board, with the recent bond selloff causing risk aversion. Persisting inflationary pressures, increased government spending and shifting investor demographics are hitting bonds globally. Political uncertainty, especially in the US ahead of the midterms, is also putting pressure on bonds. Its impact on equities is that higher yields would weigh on profits as it would require larger payouts. Higher yields would also mean higher discount stock valuations. Sectors highlight the negative bias. Retail and Energy are the only sectors posting decent gains while Tech, Industrial Goods & Services and Basic Resources are the sector laggards.

Top European News

  • UK Unemployment Rate (Jun) 4.9% vs. Exp. 4.8% (Prev. 4.9%).
  • UK Employment Change (Jun) 83k (Prev. 147k).
  • UK Average Earnings excl. Bonus (Jun 3MYr) 3.5% vs. Exp. 3.4% (Prev. 3.4%).
  • UK Average Earnings incl. Bonus (Jun 3MYr) 4.1% vs. Exp. 4.1% (Prev. 4.4%).
  • UK Claimant Count Change (Jul) -11.0k vs. Exp. 11.2k (Prev. -6.4k).
  • UK HMRC Payrolls Change (Jul) -13k (Prev. -13k).
  • German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Aug) 34.2 vs. Exp. 30 (Prev. 26.3).
  • German ZEW Current Conditions (Aug) -61.1 vs. Exp. -68.8 (Prev. -77.6).
  • European ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Aug) 31.4 vs. Exp. 25.4 (Prev. 23.4).

FX

  • DXY is modestly firmer today with headline catalysts light; the latest reporting optimistic from Pakistan but not reflected by Iran and the US. All-in-all, the market is viewing the latest updates as both sides in stalemate, and with Hormuz traffic low oil it looks like Crude could stay elevated and continue to weigh on the risk tone. Absent tier-1 data and headlines should keep focus on yield moves with US supply tomorrow potentially the most expensive for the Treasury in 25 years. DXY is within a narrow 99.52-99.69 range.
  • UK Jobs: The strong wage figures were caveated by a 6.1% rise in public sector pay helped by NHS pay awards, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly remained at the prior 4.9% level (exp. 4.8%) and the 3M employment change printed below the prior; sparking a modest dovish reaction with Cable falling 15 pips; action which has persisted two hours later. Now, Wednesday’s CPI is in focus, and with GBP having had a strong run vs. the USD, it could see a decent move should figures rise at a slower than expected pace.
  • Action elsewhere is quiet. NZD dipped below 0.59 to a 0.5870 trough amid the risk tone, USD/JPY looks towards 160.00 as oil prices hit its terms of trade, action which also fails to help energy exporters NOK and CAD, the latter which is flat against the USD, while NOK is weaker against the Buck (USD/NOK +0.2%), but firmer vs. SEK after it strengthened on Monday.

Fixed Income

  • Global fixed benchmarks continue to move lower, in a continuation of the action seen last week. Yields continue to trudge higher; the steepening seen in the last few sessions appears to have taken a breather this morning, with yields across the curve moving higher to a similar magnitude.
  • Yields continue to hold at multi-decade highs; the US 30yr (5.32%) sits at levels not seen since 11 June 2007, with the next peak going back to 2004 (5.53%). As for the yield spread, the US2s30s continues to widen, now at 113bps (vs 98bps at the start of the month). To remind, front-end rates were pressured after recent soft US data which led to a dovish Fed repricing, whilst long-end rates have been impacted by fiscal/geopolitical/political uncertainty.
  • USTs (-3 ticks) are off by a handful of ticks and trade within a 108-10 to 108-15+ range. Domestic newsflow has been light this morning, and will likely remain so for the remainder of the day given the lack of Tier 1 data and the summer lull. Bunds (-35 ticks) and Gilts (-30 ticks) also follow the bearish tone, but UK paper has its own data to digest this morning.
  • Overall, the UK’s jobs data doesn’t show a significant change in the labour market, a point that was expected heading into the release. Initial focus on the hotter-than-expected wage metrics, including the upward revision to the measure with bonuses. Additionally, the claimant count unexpectedly declined and the prior was revised down. However, this is offset by the unemployment rate unexpectedly remaining at the prior 4.9% level (exp. 4.8%) and the 3M employment change printing below the prior.
  • The UK sells GBP 4bln 4.875% 2036 Gilt: b/c 3.65x (prev. 3.13x), average yield 5.155% (prev. 5.040%), tail 0.1bps (prev. 0.1bps).
  • Japan sells JPY 1.9tln 5-year JGBs; b/c 4.15x (prev. 3.43x), average yield 2.020% (prev. 2.163%), tail in price 0.02 (prev. 0.03).

Commodities

  • WTI and Brent Oct futures hold a positive bias as constructive geopolitical headlines are trumped by escalatory rhetoric (see below). WTI trades towards the upper end of USD 84.64-85.68/bbl after topping yesterday’s USD 85.04/bbl high (vs low 81.50/bbl). Brent eyes USD 92/bbl in a current USD 90.64-91.85/bbl range after notching a USD 88.01-91.21/bbl range yesterday. Dutch TTF resides around recent ranges with gains of some 1.5% intraday, testing EUR 63/MWh to the upside in recent trade.
  • Metals are subdued as elevated energy prices keep the USD underpinned and thus weigh on the complex. Spot gold pulled back to around USD 4,400/oz and earlier hit lows close to its 100 DMA (USD 4,385/oz) in a USD 4,386-4,436/oz intraday range at the time of writing. Spot silver remains within yesterday’s USD 64.75-66.56/oz range. Base metals are lower across the board. 3M LME copper tested support around the 14k/t mark this morning to trade in a current USD 13,996.18- 14,174.00/t range at the time of writing.
  • In terms of the main geopolitical updates, US President Trump reiterated that the US remains in control of the Strait of Hormuz and said Iran wants to reach a deal, although he does not believe Tehran will agree to the terms, he considers necessary and stressed that he is not seeking an extension of the Iran MoU. Trump also criticized US-ally Oman, saying he does not think the country “behaves very well” and that the US could handle it very easily. Meanwhile, Pakistani journalist Anas Malick reported that an understanding to extend the US-Iran ceasefire under the Islamabad MoU has been reached and agreed in principle. Separately, UKMTO reported an incident in the Strait of Hormuz in which a vessel conducting an outbound transit was struck by an unknown projectile. This morning, Houthi rebels said they used multiple drones to attack an Aramco refinery in Saudi Arabia’s Jazan region, although it is unclear if this is referring to a fresh attack or last week’s attack.
  • Libya is seeking investment of up to USD 40bln to develop oil resources, according to FT.
  • India is reportedly considering cutting its 100% tax on imported sugar to help curb domestic prices, according to Bloomberg.

Trade/Tariffs

  • US President Trump and Canadian PM Carney spoke late on Monday after several days of trade negotiations between the countries, according to a Bloomberg reporter citing sources.

Central Banks

  • ECB’s Lane said inflation will hover around 3% for the rest of the year but it depends on whether there is a resolution to the crisis. Lane added that food inflation is relatively low.

Geopolitics: Iran

  • Iranian Parliamentary Speaker Ghalibaf said the Strait of Hormuz will not open until the blockade and oil embargo are lifted. He added that “Iran is ready to inflict a heavier defeat on the enemy than before, in proportion to his actions and encroachments.”
  • UKMTO said it received a report of an incident in the Strait of Hormuz, where a vessel was struck by an unknown projectile while conducting an outbound transit of the Strait of Hormuz, causing damage to the engine room and crew casualty
  • Yemen’s Houthis attacked Saudi Aramco’s Jazan refinery with drones, according to Saba news citing sources.
  • Airstrikes targeted the Abu al-Duhur military airport in eastern Idlib countryside, Syria, with a Jerusalem Post stating that Israeli fighter jets were responsible for the attack on the Abu al-Duhur Airbase in northwest Syria. There were also reports of Israeli warplanes targeted the areas of Mansouri and Deir Saryan in southern Lebanon, while Lebanese media reported intermittent Israeli shelling on the high ground of Jabal al-Rafie on the outskirts of Nabatieh al-Fawqa in southern Lebanon.
  • An explosion was reported at the Shaddadi gas pipeline in the outskirts of Hasakah, Syria.
  • UAE’s Foreign Minister discussed the latest regional developments in a phone call with the Kuwaiti Foreign Minister.
  • COSCO Shipping (1919 HK) and CMES have reportedly stopped sending oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb, sources suggest.
  • Saudi Aramco resumed oil loadings from inside the Strait of Hormuz last week, Reuters reported.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

  • Moscow mayor said Russia shot down 180 drones in the Moscow region overnight.
  • Western diplomatic source said an increasing number of European politicians are advocating for a resumption of dialogue with Russia, TASS reported.

Geopolitics: Other

  • Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said Russia and North Korea are fighting to establish a new, righteous world order, according to KCNA.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30 am: Jul Import Price Index MoM, est. 0.1%, prior 0.3%
  • 8:30 am: Jul Housing Starts, est. 1345k, prior 1427k
  • 8:30 am: Jul P Building Permits, est. 1375k, prior 1374k
  • 9:15 am: Industrial Production MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.1%
  • 9:15 am: Jul Capacity Utilization, est. 76.3%, prior 76.1%
  • 10:00 am: Jul Pending Home Sales MoM, est. 0%, prior -5.4%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Markets have seen growing weakness over the last 24 hours, with bonds and equities slipping thanks to negative geopolitical headlines from the Middle East. There wasn’t a single catalyst for the declines, but with few signs of the US and Iran coming to any sort of a deal, that meant investors priced in a more extended closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Indeed, Brent crude oil (+2.65%) closed above $90/bbl yesterday for the first time in two weeks, and this morning we’ve seen a further +0.72% rise to $91.52/bbl. So that’s led to pressure across the board, with the S&P 500 (-0.52%) slipping back, and futures are pointing to another -0.32% decline today. Moreover, inflation concerns helped send long-end bond yields up to fresh multi-year highs, with the 30yr Treasury yield (+4.7bps) closing at a post-2007 high of 5.31%, whilst Germany’s 30yr yield (+1.8bps) hit a post-2011 high of 3.74%. And that trend has shown no sign of letting up overnight either, with the 30yr Treasury yield up another +1.0bps to 5.32%.

In terms of the latest from the Middle East, yesterday’s headlines made clear that the US and Iran were still far apart from any sort of deal. For instance, President Trump told reporters he had no interest in extending the 60-day memorandum of understanding agreed in June, which technically expired yesterday, even if it effectively collapsed back in July. He also threatened to bomb Oman if they got in the way of the US, and in a Fox News interview earlier in the day, Trump said there was a back channel with officials from Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, but that he was in “no hurry”. Meanwhile, Iran denied Trump’s assertions of a back channel, saying “There are no talks taking place between IRGC officials and the Americans”. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright also didn’t sound in any rush either for a deal, saying that the US is playing the long game with Iran.

With both sides still far apart, investors grew pessimistic that the Strait of Hormuz would properly reopen any time soon. So that meant Brent crude oil prices (+2.65%) rose to $90.87/bbl by the close, their highest level since late July. And there were sizeable increases further out the oil futures curve, with the 12-month Brent future (+2.00%) jumping to a two-month high of $78.01/bbl. In other words, investors are pricing in a more protracted period of higher oil prices again.

As investor concern mounted about a longer closure for the Strait of Hormuz, that put pressure on fixed income, particularly longer-dated sovereign bonds. In fact, 30yr yields hit multi-year highs across several countries, which showed how the fiscal pressures on governments aren’t going away either. Indeed, in the US, the 30yr Treasury yield (+4.7bps) closed at a post-2007 high of 5.31%, whilst the US 30yr real yield (+5.7bps) hit a post-2008 high of 3.08%. Then in Europe, we also saw Germany’s 30yr yield (+1.8bps) hit a post-2011 high of 3.74%, and France’s 30yr yield (+2.2bps) hit a post-2008 high of 4.87%.

For shorter maturities, the jump in yields wasn’t quite as big, but they also moved consistently higher. The 10yr Treasury yield (+3.0bps) was up to 4.72%, and in Europe, 10yr bund yields (+1.8bps) hit a post-2011 high of 3.22%, whilst the 10yr OAT yield (+2.0bps) hit a post-2008 high of 4.06%. However, there were more limited moves in central bank expectations and for front-end yields, with market pricing for a September Fed rate hike only inching up from 32% to 35%.

For equities, the stagflationary impulse from higher oil prices meant it was a similar story of declines on both sides of the Atlantic. So by the close, the S&P 500 (-0.52%) posted its worst day of August so far, and it would have been worse had it not been for a rebound in chip stocks, as the Philly semiconductor index closed up +1.64% on the day. Otherwise though, the S&P 500 saw the most daily decliners (367) since early July as all major sector groups except energy fell on the day, and the equal-weighted index (-0.92%) also had its worst day in over a month. Over in Europe, markets closed before the weakening fully played out, but the STOXX 600 (-0.22%) still posted a 4th consecutive decline, alongside bigger losses for the DAX (-0.38%) and the CAC 40 (-0.66%).

That negative trend has been clear overnight in Asia, where most of the major indices have lost ground this morning, including the Nikkei (-1.64%), the KOSPI (-0.60%), the Hang Seng (-0.65%), CSI 300 (-0.79%) and the Shanghai Comp (-0.39%). Those moves also follow on from the latest batch of China’s economic data yesterday, which generally surprised on the downside. For instance, retail sales were only up +0.6% year-on-year in July (vs. +1.5% expected), whilst industrial production only grew by +4.5% year-on-year (vs. +5.0% expected). Otherwise, the pressure on long-end bond yields has also continued in Asia, with Japan’s 10yr yields (+1.5bps) at a post-1996 high of 2.92% this morning. Meanwhile in Australia, the 30yr yield (+5.6bps) is at 5.59% this morning, the highest since that maturity was first issued in 2016.

Finally, there wasn’t much data yesterday, although it did generally lean in a hawkish direction and kept up the pressure on bond yields. First, the Empire State manufacturing survey unexpectedly jumped to a 4-year high of 20.6 in August (vs. 10.0 expected). Separately in Canada, the headline CPI increased by more than expected to +3.0% in July (vs. +2.9% expected). Moreover, the core measures were also above consensus, with the median core measure up to +2.0% (vs. +1.9% expected), and the trim core measure at +1.9% (vs. +1.8% expected). So investors dialled up the chance of a rate hike by the Bank of Canada’s December meeting, with the probability rising to 68% on the day, up from 58% on Friday.

Looking at the day ahead, data releases include US industrial production, capacity utilisation, housing starts, building permits, and pending home sales for July. Meanwhile in Europe, there’s the German ZEW survey for August, and the latest UK labour market data. From central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Lane. Finally, today’s earnings releases include Home Depot.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 08/18/2026 – 08:30

Trump Posts Map Depicting Hormuz As ‘New’ US Territory, Just After Latest Tanker Attack By Iranians

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Trump Posts Map Depicting Hormuz As ‘New’ US Territory, Just After Latest Tanker Attack By Iranians

Yet another attack has occurred in the Strait of Hormuz, this time on a foreign tanker on an outbound transit route, which Iran and Oman claim to directly oversee and administer according to the terms of the Oman deal for managing the strait which is still being finalized.

UK Maritime Trade Operations says Tuesday that the unknown projectile caused engine-room damage and a crew casualty, with the remaining crew being rescued and assisted by the Omani Coast Guard.

Such attacks which mark enforcement of Iran’s protocol and claim of control over the vital energy transit waterway have been steady, though not rapid, over the last several weeks. Oil prices have been on the rise this week, also as it continues to be clear that Washington and Tehran are digging in with their competing maximum demands.

Hormuz isn’t the only chokepoint still witnessing active conflict. Waters off Yemen and the Red Sea also continue to heat up, with the Iranian-allied Houthi rebels still escalating.

According to The Wall Street Journal on Tuesday, the group is “shutting down operations at a strategic seaport and pushing closer to the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, an important global shipping chokepoint.”

The report cites Yemeni authorities to describe, “The militant group’s recent missile and drone attacks forced the closure of the port of Mokha, a key logistics hub for civilian shipping and for anti-Houthi forces operating along the coast.”

According to more on the significance:

“This is the most significant escalation in quite a few years, maybe since 2020,” said Adam Baron, a Yemen expert and fellow with New America, a policy institute in Washington.

Baron called the port of Mokha the key logistics hub for anti-Houthi forces on the Red Sea. The Houthis control mountainous terrain inland from the Bab al-Mandeb but not the coast along the crucial waterway, which is held by opposing forces. 

On the question of finding a path toward broader US-Iran peace, there’s still no movements on talks. Qatar is even openly saying that its direct mediation efforts won’t resume until the Oman deal is finalized – which critics have complained gives Iran de facto control of operations in the Strait of Hormuz.

“Qatar’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Majed al-Ansari says during a news conference that countries mediating between Iran and the US are waiting for Iran and Oman to announce an expected agreement on transit through the Strait of Hormuz, before pushing Washington and Tehran to resume negotiations aimed at ending their war,” Al Jazeera reports.

President Trump’s latest rhetoric and social media activity is not going to help the cause of peace, or the two sides getting back to the negotiating table. After verbalizing Monday that the US should declare the Hormuz Strait a US territory, he posted the following to Truth Social on Tuesday:

All of this comes on the heels of the 60-day diplomatic window set by the MoU inked in June has expired. Tehran said it was already effectively dead anyway, and thus “irrelevant” – blaming Washington for having violated its terms on multiple occasions.

Trump is meanwhile ultimately sticking to the following as an ultimate goal of the Iran conflict: “The number one Goal is, and always will be, that Iran cannot have, in any way, shape, or form, a Nuclear Weapon. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP,” he earlier stated on Truth Social.

The path to midterm elections in November continues to be a rough one for the US administration, and the pain is likely to continue for at least the time being…

Not only has Iran not backed down, but its military is newly claiming to take an “offensive” posture and has reshuffled its command accordingly. If there are new tit-for-tat attacks, Tehran is in essence saying the next salvo will go bigger.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 08/18/2026 – 08:20

Blasphemy Law Is Back: Retired British Police Officer Fined For Islam Joke

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Blasphemy Law Is Back: Retired British Police Officer Fined For Islam Joke

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,

A retired British police officer has been handed a criminal conviction and more than £1,000 in fines for resharing a satirical Facebook meme poking fun at Islam.

Stephen Gray, 65, a former Police officer who served nearly three decades, was found guilty under Section 127 of the Communications Act 2003 of making a “grossly offensive” post.

The case has sparked fresh warnings that blasphemy laws, abolished in England in 2008, are being revived by the back door – but only for one religion.

Gray’s first concern when charged was not himself, but the young Irish girl he and his wife had been fostering for six years. “I was initially quite worried because obviously we have to have enhanced DBS checks to foster children,” he told The Telegraph.

He added, “These kids have enough to put up with without the fear they may be moving again hanging over their heads.” Social services later described the prosecution as “utter rubbish” and reassured the couple it would not affect their fostering.

Gray was reported to Durham Constabulary by a non-Muslim neighbour with whom he had previously had an unrelated disagreement.

He had reshared two images. The first featured a Middle Eastern man alongside the words “time for mass deportation” and “Children in Need,” with a caption reading: “12-year-old Mohammed recently arrived at Dover. Please donate to help him move from a three-star to a five-star hotel which has a better halal menu, free wifi and Sky and is nearer to a girls’ school.”

The district judge ruled this was not grossly offensive because it related to a political issue debated in Parliament.

The second image showed a man in a turban next to a rasher of bacon with the caption: “Fun facts about Bacon! People who eat bacon have a lower chance of marrying a 9-year-old!” That post led to the conviction.

The judge decided it was about religion rather than politics and was therefore “grossly offensive.”

Gray has been clear about his intent. “I made a joke, an ironic joke, about Islam. That is all it was at the end of the day. A joke. I certainly never, not for one second, thought it would be deemed abusive.”

He added: “I guess some of the posts may have been in bad taste. Some of them may upset one or two people, but I didn’t think for one second it would be cast as grossly offensive by the police, the Crown Prosecution Service and by the courts. Not for one second.”

Hundreds, if not thousands, of other people had reshared the same material. Gray did not create the images.

The Crown Prosecution Service initially declined to charge him, stating there was no realistic prospect of conviction. The complainant then used the Victims’ Right to Review scheme, and the CPS reversed course.

Gray is appealing with the support of the Free Speech Union. His former boss at Cleveland Police was “absolutely gobsmacked.” Gray recalled: “Back when I was serving, if I had taken this case to my sergeant or inspector, I would have been on foot beat night shift for the next five years for wasting everybody’s time. It wouldn’t have got past the front door of the police station.”

He now sees a clear pattern. “I just think it’s a dangerous road that the Government is going down trying to use the justice system to get us to stop criticising a religion that promotes a lot of things people might not agree with.”

Lord Young of Acton, general secretary of the Free Speech Union, put it bluntly: “Prosecuting people for making jokes about Islam, particularly if they contain a kernel of truth, is a new low. No one making a similar joke about Jesus would face prosecution.”

Young added, “Blasphemy laws were abolished in England 18 years ago and should not be resurrected by the courts and applied to just one religion.”

This is not an isolated incident. It fits a growing pattern of institutional pressure against any criticism of Islam.

Earlier this year, a Christian police community support officer with North Yorkshire Police was driven out of his job after asking basic questions about jihad and Hamas atrocities during a mandatory diversity training session billed as a “safe space.”

Luke Salmons was suspended, faced misconduct proceedings, and ultimately resigned under pressure after colleagues reported a book in his locker. The force’s own “safe space” invitation to discuss the issues proved hollow the moment scrutiny touched Islam.

Police forces have gone further. South Wales Police instructed officers to log conversations and comments about Islam that go beyond what the force deems “legitimate” discussion.

The Free Speech Union has warned this creates a chilling effect, allowing subjective judgments to be recorded and potentially surface in future enhanced DBS checks.

It is part of a wider push under the Labour government’s non-statutory definition of “anti-Muslim hostility,” which critics say is being gold-plated by public bodies to police speech.

Schools have not been spared. Multiple Labour-run councils issued guidance telling teachers that children’s drawings of prophets, including Jesus or Mohammed, could be considered blasphemous under certain Islamic interpretations.

Art, music, dance and PE have all been flagged for sensitivity to Muslim parental concerns about human figures, instruments and mixed-gender contact.

At the same time, the government has urged schools, councils and workplaces to monitor and report “anti-Muslim hostility,” complete with a new tsar-style role to oversee the effort.

The working group that helped shape the government’s definition of anti-Muslim hostility has drawn particular scrutiny. Every member has documented links to Islamist organisations, including groups successive governments have refused to engage with because of their extreme positions.

The Free Speech Union’s investigation laid out the connections in detail, raising obvious questions about bias in a process meant to define acceptable speech about one faith.

The same machinery has already claimed other victims for online jokes. Lucy Connolly was imprisoned for a post on X after the Southport attacks.

After her release on licence, the government threatened to return her to prison for sharing another satirical comment. Her case, like Gray’s, shows how quickly a joke can become a criminal matter when it touches the wrong subjects.

Gray’s conviction is the latest demonstration that Britain’s justice system now treats criticism of Islam as uniquely toxic. A political meme about immigration hotels was waved through. A joke referencing historical facts about the Prophet Muhammad’s marriage was criminalised.

The complainant was not Muslim. The posts were not directed at any individual. Thousands of others shared the same content without consequence. Yet a retired police officer who spent his career upholding the law now has a criminal record for a Facebook reshare.

The Free Speech Union is funding Gray’s appeal, scheduled for November, and has instructed leading counsel.

The outcome will test whether English courts are prepared to enforce a selective blasphemy code that Parliament deliberately abolished.

For now, the message to ordinary citizens is clear: some jokes are more equal than others, and the state is watching.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 08/18/2026 – 06:30

Humanoid War Robots Could Soon Patrol US Southern Border To Combat Weaponized Migrant Flows

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Humanoid War Robots Could Soon Patrol US Southern Border To Combat Weaponized Migrant Flows

Building on our February theme that physical AI and humanoid robots would move beyond factory floors and folding laundry in homes into conflict zones and other high-risk environments, US-based Foundation Robotics is now discussing potential national-security deployments of its Phantom humanoid robot along the southern border.

Fox News reporters spoke with CEO Sankaet Pathak, who said the U.S.-based startup, which develops humanoid robots for industrial and military applications, has already demonstrated the capabilities of its Phantom MK1 robots to the Department of Homeland Security for border deployment.

“We’re in conversations with almost all national security government bodies, so Air Force, Navy, Army, DHS,” Pathak said. “We continue to have dialogues. We’re starting to negotiate contracts and some applications for them.”

Pathak said Phantom MK1 is designed to navigate rugged terrain that can be difficult for vehicles, drones and fixed cameras. He said potential deployment missions could center on monitoring remote border areas, inspecting tunnels, and flagging migrant crossings.

“If drones and watchtowers were able to solve for everything, why do we still have humans at the border?” Pathak emphasized.

Pathak said Foundation could begin a limited pilot immediately and potentially undertake a larger deployment within several months.

Yet when Fox News asked a DHS spokesperson about the humanoid robots, the person said there is currently no formal arrangement in place.

“The Department of Homeland Security currently does not have any non-contractual agreements, pilots, or active prime contracts with Foundation,” the spokesperson said.

In early March, Foundation co-founder Mike LeBlanc told TIME Magazine that the company is in “very close contact” with DHS regarding possible patrol deployments along the southern border.

LeBlanc prepares to hand a shotgun to a PhantomMattia Balsamini for TIME. Source: TIME

Foundation is already a military-approved vendor and holds government research contracts worth $24 million with the U.S. Army, Navy and Air Force. This suggests that these war bots are very close to being tested in war zones.

In fact, testing humanoid robots in Ukraine, which, remember, is the world’s AI weapons laboratory, could be coming much sooner than previously thought. Earlier this year, we outlined that the company sent two Phantom MK1 robots to Ukraine for testing.

By July, several Ukrainian news outlets, including United24 Media, said that its military would begin a grant competition to develop humanoid robots for military use as part of a broader push to automate the front line and reduce battlefield risks for its troops.

We suspect Foundation could receive a portion of the grant, potentially incentivizing the company to send additional robots to Ukraine for testing.

Phantom MK1 robots recently participated in a live-fire training exercise in Las Vegas, Nevada.

If and when Ukrainian forces deploy these systems for testing, the modern battlefield will provide a rapid and unforgiving test of their operational effectiveness. Just imagine the videos that would surface on X, humanoids fightings against FPV drone. 

Back to the southern border, the future vision of securing the border will likely include all categories of drones (latest drone report), humanoid robots, and ground bots that will make the border highly militarized to ensure that no hybrid warfare, such as weaponizing migration flows, can be seen, like what was done over the Biden-Harriss regime years, or more recently, the invasion of the Spanish enclave of Ceuta by military-aged men. 

Tyler Durden
Tue, 08/18/2026 – 05:45

If Other Countries Give Fewer Shots, Why Can’t We Ask Why?

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If Other Countries Give Fewer Shots, Why Can’t We Ask Why?

Authored by Jack Hellner via AmericanThinker.com,

By age 18, a child in the United States can receive roughly 30 to 75 total vaccine doses if they follow standard schedules and get annual flu shots. Fewer shots are needed because vaccines are combined.

By comparison, in Germany, the Robert Koch Institute (via the Standing Committee on Vaccination, STIKO) recommends routine protection against about 12 to 15 infectious diseases for children. Because Germany relies heavily on multi-component combination shots (like the 6-in-1 hexavalent vaccine), children receive roughly 11 to 14 actual physical injections.

Elsewhere in Europe, in England, children receive around 20 to 25 individual vaccine doses from birth to age 14, delivered via roughly 14 to 16 actual needle injections.

Similarly, under Japan’s routine immunization program, children receive around 20 to 22 individual injection shots.

And in Spain, children receive around 15 to 18 individual injection shots from birth through adolescence under the official public health system.

These comparisons raise some obvious questions.

Doesn’t it look like children in the United States get more shots today, and there would be a valid reason to recommend fewer?

Do children in countries with fewer shots have worse health results?

Do other countries ignore science when they have fewer shots?

Wouldn’t it be nice if the media were curious instead of just repeating talking points to trash President Donald Trump?

And vaccines aren’t the only area of health care where such questions should be asked.

Obamacare is one of the worst and most costly bills ever passed, yet the media and other Democrats still falsely claim that it makes health care more affordable.

If Democrats just wanted to cover the poor and those at high risk, they would have just expanded Medicaid and high-risk pools instead of destroying the whole system.

They never wanted affordable care. They wanted government-controlled care.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 08/18/2026 – 05:00

‘Do What Israel Tells You!’ – Graffiti On USAF Jet Suggests Troops Think War Isn’t For America

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‘Do What Israel Tells You!’ – Graffiti On USAF Jet Suggests Troops Think War Isn’t For America

It only took two weeks of fighting for a majority of polled Americans to conclude that the war on Iran benefits Israel more than the United States. If comments from a prominent, former Navy SEAL and graffiti written in the dust of a US Air Force jet in the Middle East are any indication, many American service members are convinced their participation in the war only serves the agenda of the State of Israel and its prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu.  

On Sunday, Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft executive VP Trita Parsi posted a photo that he said was sent to him “from the field” showing temporary graffiti one or more service members had written in the dust of a military aircraft: 

“Do what Israel tells you to!” Graffiti scrawled on a US military aircraft flap points to disbelief in the supposed rationale for a US war on Iran (via Trita Parsi)

Some messages on what looks like a Boeing KC-135R Stratotanker satirically embrace the idea that American service members should be enthusiastic about serving Israel: 

  • “Be a good goy and do what Israel tells you to!!!” 
  • “I LOVE ISRAEL. I AM A GOOD GOYIM.” 
  • “BiBi’s Cucks” 

Some clarifications are in order. “Bibi” is a nickname used by Netanyahu, and “cuck” refers to weak men who submit to other men’s domination. “Goy” and “goyim” are, respectively, singular and plural Hebrew nouns used to refer to non-Jews. Those two words aren’t inherently derogatory toward non-Jews. However, like other labels for people, they can be used derisively or as an “outsider label” depending on the context. For example, in an email conversation with AI scientist Roger Schank, convicted sex-criminal Jeffrey Epstein wrote, “This is the way the jew [sic] make money… let the goyim deal in the real world.”

Epstein made an appearance on the dusty wing flap too. Reflecting a widespread but not-yet-proven theory that Israel coerced Trump into starting a war on Iran by threatening to release damning information obtained by Epstein, one of the messages repeats a common play on words that turns US “Operation Epic Fury” into “Operation Epstein Fury.” 

Another message mocks the Trump administration’s recurring claims that a deal to end the five-month-old war and open the Strait of Hormuz is imminent: “Peace Deal #64 Incoming… ALL THIS FOR THE HOLY LAND.” Another mocks the surveillance state that’s rising at home while service members who are sworn to defend the Constitution are sent overseas for an unconstitutional war launched on false premises: “I love Flock Cameras.”  

As this is written, mainstream media isn’t touching the story with a ten-foot-pole, despite the sound reputation of Parsi, who has vouched for its authenticity. The media silence about the messages has thus far relieved the Pentagon from having to issue a statement about them. If it does, we can expect the DOD to claim the graffiti is unrepresentative of how most US service members feel.

Parsi says a service member told him that journalists have no idea how low morale is. “What people in the media don’t understand when they compare past conflicts to this one, is this operation has no morale behind it,” the military man told Parsi. “That makes a world of difference to service members deployed to undesirable locations indefinitely.”

In an interview with Tucker Carlson last month, podcaster and former Navy SEAL Shawn Ryan gave some blunt insights into similar feelings among special operators still on active duty:

“I just had some buddies leave and everybody knows what this is. Everybody knows they’re fighting for Israel. It’s a joke. This is not me saying this, this is them. This is the guys that are gonna go over there in Tier 1, Tier 2 units that are joking around, saying ‘this isn’t even for us.’

Throughout history, that’s not a winning strategy. If they don’t believe in what they’re potentially going to do…and they know it’s not for the United States, it’s for a foreign country — like, the fight’s out of the dog, buddy...They know it’s not for us. They’re not defending our country.”

Ryan said he’d just hosted a pre-deployment party for an operator, who was fixated on the grim reality of what service in the war on Iran is really about. “That’s all he was talking about. And it’s fucking sad…like, why don’t you just get out, man?” 

Thanks to reporting on the extent to which the Israeli government went to sell Trump on breaking his campaign promise to be a “peace president,” it’s been increasingly common to hear the war being characterized as a “war for Israel.” Having convinced America to attack its chief regional rival — in a war that has killed at least 18 service members and wounded more than 600 others — Israel is now abstaining from direct participation.

As far-right finance minister Bezalel Smotrich said last month, “The State of Israel has no interest in joining the contained confrontation between Iran and the United States. The current situation is the best one for us.”

Tyler Durden
Tue, 08/18/2026 – 04:15

Meta Flags Migration Searches… Then Offers UN Asylum Help

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Meta Flags Migration Searches… Then Offers UN Asylum Help

Via Remix News,

Meta’s Facebook and Instagram platforms have begun displaying targeted warning messages to users searching for news or information related to mass immigration, including terms such as “Ceuta.”

The prompts caution users to “be careful when searching for migration info” and include a prominent link or button offering “help with moving to a new country.”

Clicking through takes users to a Meta Help Center page titled “Help is available if you want to move to a new country.” That page, created in consultation with experts from the International Organization for Migration (IOM) and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), provides tips and guidance to help migrants enter Europe and other states.

The site encourages regular migration, compliant with the laws of origin, transit, and destination countries, compared to illegal migration, which it describes as dangerous and likely to expose people to violence, exploitation, and abuse.

The resource further directs users to the UNHCR website for information on asylum procedures, resettlement options for recognized refugees, and family reunification. These programs are fueling mass immigration into Europe and North America, often through legal channels, which offer a significantly larger demographic threat than illegal channels.

It also references IOM services and, in related materials and app descriptions circulating with the prompts, points toward the IOM’s MigApp. That mobile application is officially branded by the UN migration agency as a tool for “empowering migrants,” offering information on visas, health regulations, risks, money transfers, document storage, and access to IOM programs.

The feature appears to have rolled out recently and has drawn attention amid a surge of irregular migrant crossings into the Spanish enclave of Ceuta. In late July 2026, tens of thousands of people attempted to enter Ceuta by swimming or scaling border fences, with reports of dozens of deaths.

Investigations showed that many of the attempts were coordinated through large public Facebook groups that shared maps, distances, equipment recommendations, and calls for additional crossings. Meta removed multiple groups after media reports, stating it monitors the situation in real time and removes content that facilitates human smuggling.

Critics argue that Meta’s messaging goes beyond safety warnings and actively steers users, potentially including those researching or considering irregular routes, toward UN institutions that support asylum claims and migrant empowerment. Fox News correspondent Bill Melugin highlighted screenshots of the Instagram interstitial, noting that the “get migration info” pathway leads directly to UN resources for asylum seekers and the empowering-migrants app.

Dan Lyman wrote on X that “journalists in Europe have noticed this ‘guide’ when conducting searches on Instagram for ‘Ceuta.’”

Lyman further notes that a reporter told him, “It’s a guidebook to migration when people are searching for illegal immigration.”

The EU knows that images like Ceuta are a boon to right-wing parties. For those seeking to come to Europe, there are many doors open. This new prompt from Meta may serve as a guidebook for mass immigration through the legal channels the EU desires.

Read more here…

Tyler Durden
Tue, 08/18/2026 – 03:30

“Generates A Number Of Risks”: UBS Warns German NatGas Storage Levels Alarmingly Below Seasonal Norms

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“Generates A Number Of Risks”: UBS Warns German NatGas Storage Levels Alarmingly Below Seasonal Norms

Following up on our “Winter Is Coming: Europe Faces Twin Diesel And NatGas Crunch“ note earlier this month, which focused on Europe as a whole, UBS analysts focused on Germany’s natural gas inventories Monday morning and warned that levels are alarmingly low for this time of year, raising the risk of elevated prices and a renewed supply crunch if the Northern Hemisphere experiences a severe winter.

Simon Penn, a London-based UBS macro strategist, wrote earlier today that Germany’s NatGas storage is just 48% full, compared with 65% a year ago and 75% during the 2022 energy crisis. 

We would go a step further: inventories are now at their lowest level for this time of year in 17 years.

Penn added more color:

Economist Felix Huefner sees Germany hitting 65% in November, compared to the government target of 80% and the EU’s target of 90%. This generates a number of risks. 

A surge in demand and hence gas prices if Germany attempts to achieve its targets; increased pressure on Germany’s fiscal position if the government needs to use Trading Hub Europe (THE) to replenish stocks; pressures elsewhere in Europe as German demand crowds out other national buyers; Germany’s regasification facilities are limited which means even if it can find LNG supply, it can’t necessarily convert that to stored gas. Hence, a gas shortage could ensue late winter anyway. 

The ECB estimates that a 10% increase in wholesale gas prices adds 0.6pp to Eurozone headline inflation. In addition, all that is likely to place downward pressure on German GDP, which is already threatened by the consequences of a near-dry Rhine river. There is now a mere 10cm of navigable depth at the Kaub pinch point – in February it was 400cm and a year ago 200cm. Cargo barges are down to 10-20% of capacity to stay afloat.

Circling back to our Aug. 7 “Winter Is Coming” note, we warned that it is not just a global diesel crunch keeping Goldman’s Samantha Dart up at night. NatGas is another mounting concern.

Continued disruption through the Strait of Hormuz, compounded by historically low Rhine River levels, is slowing Europe’s effort to rebuild NatGas stockpiles. That risk is now materializing in the inventory data.

Here is where Europe stands in terms of NatGas storage:

At this point, Europeans had better hope that a strong El Niño would produce relatively mild weather. Otherwise, the continent could face a cold and extremely expensive winter.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 08/18/2026 – 02:45