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Visa Overstays Make Up Almost 40% Of Illegal US Entries

Visa Overstays Make Up Almost 40% Of Illegal US Entries

The share of people becoming undocumented immigrants in the United States not by illegally crossing a border, but by overstaying their visas was almost 40 percent of estimated new undocumented immigrants in the fiscal year 2023.

While an estimated 860,000 new undocumented arrivals were created due to illegal border crossings that year, more than 510,000 people overstayed their visas. 

This fact has in the past called into question the effectiveness of sealing off borders to curb illegal immigration. During the first Trump term, when the construction of a wall at the U.S.-Mexico border took central stage, the number of overstayers even slightly outnumbered that of illegal crossers. Now, the Trump administration is also attacking on the other front, this weekend warning Indians not to overstay U.S. visas or risk lifetime bans to the country.

As Statista’s Katharina Buchholz reports, the absolute number of Indian visa overstayers in FY of 2023 was around 19,000 – rank 7 among nations, but the highest-ranking non-Latin American or Caribbean country. In FY 2016, this was still as high as 25,000 people. 

Infographic: Visa Overstays Make up Almost 40 Percent of Illegal U.S. Entries | Statista 

You will find more infographics at Statista

The stock of undocumented Indian immigrants was most recently estimated at 725,000 people – rank 3 after Mexico and El Salvador. 

In terms of illegal crossers (calculated based on the most recent data on border encounters), Latin American countries and Haiti made up the top 10 of the most common nationalities illegally crossing the Southern U.S. border, with Mexicans making up almost a third of all illegal crossers.

The prevalence of the different modes of illegal immigration has been changing in the last two decades. 

In the year 2000, 400,000 illegal aliens had come across the border and only 225,000 had overstayed their visa, according to a report by the Center for Migration Studies

The trend reversed in 2007 to include more overstayers than wholly undocumented entries and again in 2019, when illegal border crossings started to soar once more.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 05/23/2025 – 23:00

“UndocuGraduation” Ceremonies For Illegal Aliens Include Guidance On ICE Raids

“UndocuGraduation” Ceremonies For Illegal Aliens Include Guidance On ICE Raids

By Emily Sturge of CampusReform

This graduation season, three universities in California and a university in Washington will hold “UndocuGraduation” ceremonies to celebrate illegal immigrant students. 

Universities paired the event announcements with commitments to protect the identities of student attendees by not releasing any “data related to immigration status” unless presented with a “judicial warrant, subpoena, or court order,” according to a message on behalf of the California State University system. 

“Immigration enforcement is the responsibility of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, not the university,” a message from California State University Long Beach states. 

California State University, Longbeach (CSULB) will host a “Beyond Borders Graduation Celebration” for illegal immigrant students on May 10, according to a university webpage. 

California State University, Northridge (CSUN) will host an “UndocuGraduation” ceremony May 3, according to an Instagram post. 

“Join us at UndocuGraduation to honor your achievement as an undocumented, DACAmented, or mixed status graduating Matador,” the event page states. 

The event will be hosted by CSUN’s DREAM Center, which is part of the university’s student union and provides resources such as an “Immigration Preparedness Toolkit.”

CSUN is also instructing students to report “ICE sighting[s] on campus” and sharing guidelines explaining what to do if you are an illegal immigrant approached by immigration officers. 

The university is providing “red cards” that direct illegal immigrants on how to act if approached by law enforcement and instructing illegal immigrant students to “give the red card to the agent,” per a social media post

“Do not open the door…do not answer any questions…do not sign anything,” the red card reads

California State University, Fullerton (CSUF) will host an “Undocu Recognition Celebration” May 3.

The website describes the ceremony as “an event where we celebrate the undocumented graduating students and their accomplishments through their higher education career.”

It will be hosted by the university’s “Titan Dreamers Resource Center,” a campus resource dedicated to providing resources to illegal immigrant students, including “immigration legal services, personal and professional development programs, and connecting students to financial and academic resources.”

The Titan Dreamers Resource Center at CSUF is also holding a “Pan-Afrikan Recognition Celebration” in partnership with the university’s Black Faculty and Staff Association, an “Asian Pacific Islander South Asian American Recognition Celebration,” a “Nuestra Graduación” for “Latinx students,” and a Lavender graduation ceremony for LGBTQ+ students. 

In a nearby state, the University of Washington (UW) in Seattle will hold an “Undocu Graduation Celebration” on May 23. 

The ceremony will be hosted by the university’s Samuel E. Kelly Ethnic Cultural Center, which previously held an “Undocu Student Wellness Day” event for illegal immigrant students in January.

At the January event, the university invited illegal immigrant students to “Join us for destressing through arts and crafts, grabbing a snack, and watching a movie,” the Ethnic Cultural Center shared on Instagram

UW will also hold a Black Graduation Celebration, Filipino Graduation Celebration, Latine Graduation Celebration, Native Graduation Celebration, and Pasifik Graduation Celebration

“CSU Fullerton and all Cal State Universities work to ensure all students feel welcomed and have the tools they need to succeed, regardless of immigration status,” a message from the university states. 

Tyler Durden
Fri, 05/23/2025 – 22:35

US Gasoline Prices Heading Into Memorial Day Weekend Are The Lowest Since COVID

US Gasoline Prices Heading Into Memorial Day Weekend Are The Lowest Since COVID

The retail price for regular-grade gasoline in the United States on May 19, the Monday before Memorial Day weekend, averaged $3.17 per gallon (gal), 11% (or 41 cents/gal) lower than the price a year ago. Thanks to the ongoing slide in oil prices, after adjusting for inflation (real terms) average U.S. retail gasoline prices going into Memorial Day weekend are 14% lower than last year, according to EIA calculations. They are in fact, lower than where they were coming into Memorial Day every year this decade except 2020, in the immediate aftermath of covid.

Memorial Day weekend is one of the biggest travel weekends of the year, and many of those travelers will go by car. The American Automobile Association (AAA) expects 39.4 million people will travel by car over Memorial Day weekend this year, an increase of 3% compared with last year.

Substantially lower crude oil prices, the main component of retail gasoline prices, have kept retail gasoline prices lower than usual going into spring. From May 1 to May 19, Brent crude oil prices averaged $64 per barrel (b), 20% less in real terms than in January and 26% less than in May 2024. Concerns about future economic growth, record-high U.S. crude oil production, and, more recently, announcements that OPEC+ will accelerate crude oil production increases have contributed to falling crude oil prices.

Retail gasoline prices on the Monday before Memorial Day weekend are only 4% (or 13 cents/gal) higher than on the first Monday of January. Retail gasoline prices typically increase much more than that as gasoline demand increases going into the summer driving season and retailers are required to start selling more expensive summer-grade gasoline. Over the last 10 years and excluding 2020, retail gasoline prices increased 19% (or 49 cents/gal) on average from January to May.

U.S. gasoline prices vary regionally, reflecting local supply and demand conditions, state fuel specifications, and state taxes. Retail gasoline prices are usually the highest on the West Coast because of:

  • The region’s limited connections with other major refining centers
  • Tight local supply and demand conditions
  • Higher-than-average state taxes in several West Coast states
  • Gasoline specifications for California that make gasoline more costly to manufacture

On May 19, West Coast prices averaged $4.29/gal, down 10% in real terms from this time last year.

Gasoline prices on the Gulf Coast are usually the lowest of any U.S. region. Gulf Coast states are home to more than half of U.S. refining capacity, and more gasoline is produced than is consumed in the region. Gulf Coast states also have lower gasoline taxes than the national average. Gulf Coast prices on May 19 averaged $2.79/gal, down 13% from this time last year.

On the East Coast, which has the most gasoline demand of the five regions, retail gasoline prices averaged $2.99/gal, down 17% from 2024.

Prices are also down in the Midwest and the Rocky Mountains compared with last year. Midwest prices averaged $3.03/gal, down 15% from the previous year, and Rocky Mountains prices averaged $3.13/gal, down 12% from 2024 after adjusting for inflation.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 05/23/2025 – 22:10

Universities Should Stop Basing Decisions On Race, Majority Of Parents Say In New Poll

Universities Should Stop Basing Decisions On Race, Majority Of Parents Say In New Poll

By Micaiah Bilger of The College Fix

3 in 4 parents of college-age students also oppose men in women’s spaces

A majority of parents with college-age students want universities to stop prioritizing race in hiring and scholarship decisions, a new poll from Defending Education found.

The results showed a majority of parents “are at odds with our country’s higher education institutions on several contentious issues that are consistently in today’s political dialogue,” according to a news release. Defending Education works to rid education of ideological agendas.

In the poll, which involved parents of 15- to 21-year-old students, 54 percent said universities should not prioritize a student’s race when awarding scholarships, and 57 percent said the same about hiring employees.

Racial preferences are still a problem at universities, College Fix investigations have found.

Recently, the University of Michigan-Flint revised a physical therapy training program to no longer exclude students on the basis of race, following a federal civil rights complaint and a College Fix inquiry.

The University of Rhode Island prioritizes hiring people “of color” in its strategic plan, according to another recent Fix report.

Meanwhile, the University of California Los Angeles medical school is facing a lawsuit alleging it discriminates against white and Asian students in its admissions process, The Fix reported earlier this week.

The Defending Education poll found strong concerns among parents about other issues as well, including men in women’s sports and antisemitism.

Three in four parents said men who identify as women should not be allowed to use women’s restrooms or compete in women’s sports.

Nearly 70 percent also said universities should discipline students who disrupt campus events because they disagree with them.

Other results from the poll include:

– 88 percent of parents support universities being required to disclose any money accepted from foreign governments.

– 67 percent of parents support universities offering or requiring more training for faculty and staff to properly address and identify antisemitism and Jewish discrimination on campus.

– 84 percent of parents feel that it is concerning universities are launching remedial math courses since high school graduates are not coming prepared for college level math courses.

Paul Runko, director of strategic initiatives at Defending Education, said in a news release that the results did not surprise him.

He said most parents and students believe college should be “academically rigorous, open to diverse viewpoints, and focused on preparing graduates for meaningful careers.”

“Colleges and universities should take note when families express concern about campus climates—calling for environments free from political extremism, ideological agendas, antisemitism, and campus disruptions,” Runko stated.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 05/23/2025 – 21:45

CIA Says Winning Tech War With China Top Priority, Citing ‘Existential Threat’ To US

CIA Says Winning Tech War With China Top Priority, Citing ‘Existential Threat’ To US

Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times,

CIA Deputy Director Michael Ellis says that China represents an “existential threat” to the United States and that the agency’s top priority is outpacing the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in a high-stakes technological arms race that spans semiconductors, biotechnology, and artificial intelligence.

“China is the existential threat to American security in a way we really have never confronted before,” Ellis told Axios in an interview published on May 21, adding that a key CIA objective is to help U.S. companies maintain a “decisive technological advantage” to counter the CCP’s malign actions against the homeland.

In separate remarks, including an interview at the beginning of May with investor Anthony Pompliano, Ellis emphasized that President Donald Trump’s intelligence team is laser-focused on denying China any strategic edge, especially in advanced technologies that underpin both the economy and national defense. 

However, fields such as artificial intelligence and quantum computing are not areas that the U.S. intelligence community (IC) has traditionally been much involved in—and the CIA is looking to change that.

“The IC is very good at … counting Soviet tanks … to be ready for a possible conflict in Europe in the Cold War,” Ellis said. 

“But … when you ask the IC to look at issues … where Chinese companies are in artificial intelligence research, it’s not one that we’ve been well-positioned historically to think about.”

As part of its shift in focus toward the tech race against adversaries such as China, the CIA is looking to develop more resources, including personnel, Ellis said, adding that this includes recruiting people with expertise in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics.

“We need more people with science and technology backgrounds, which is again a little different than the global war on terrorism mindset of the last 20 years,” he said, adding that the CIA is also increasingly looking at partnering with private-sector leaders—including recent consultations with Elon Musk—on how to cut waste, adopt artificial intelligence tools, and stay ahead of adversaries using emerging technologies like drone swarms.

The deputy director’s remarks echo a sharply-worded warning from former FBI Director Christopher Wray, who, before his resignation, called the Chinese regime “the defining threat of our generation” after revealing that hackers linked to the CCP had infiltrated U.S. critical infrastructure and were waiting for the right moment to strike a “devastating blow.”

Ellis’s concerns are also reinforced by the intelligence community’s latest threat assessment, which identifies China as “the most active and persistent cyber threat” facing the United States—particularly when it comes to government systems, critical infrastructure, and the private sector.

Beijing’s cyber campaign includes operations such as Volt Typhoon, a state-backed effort to infiltrate key U.S. systems and maintain covert, long-term access to vital infrastructure. A more recent campaign, known as Salt Typhoon, has targeted U.S. telecommunications networks, underscoring the regime’s expanding digital reach and operational sophistication in targeting critical infrastructure in America.

The report warns that in the event of a looming military conflict with Washington, especially over Taiwan, China could launch aggressive cyber strikes against U.S. military and civilian networks. These would be intended to disrupt command decisions, generate chaos among the public, and hinder the rapid deployment of American forces.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 05/23/2025 – 20:55

Trans CEMA Director Suspended After Failure To Alert St. Louis Residents Of Deadly Tornado

Trans CEMA Director Suspended After Failure To Alert St. Louis Residents Of Deadly Tornado

The head of the City Emergency Management Agency (CEMA) in St. Louis has been suspended pending an investigation into into why tornado sirens did not sound before an EF-3 tornado hit parts of Central West End and North City last week.  A physical button must be pushed by officials at the CEMA office in order to activate warning sirens; this was never done. Five people died when the storm struck.

Sarah Russell, (a biological woman) who identifies as transgender and goes by they/them pronouns, was promoted to the CEMA leadership position in 2022 in the midst of the widespread DEI hiring blitz within Democrat run cities across the US.  CEMA is a local partner organization to FEMA.    

CEMA staff, including Russell, were at a workshop on Market Street and not at the CEMA office located on Olive, where the siren activation button is located. The Mayor’s office said Russell contacted the fire department, apparently at the time the tornado was approaching the city.  City officials say there was then a breakdown in communication, with the directive to activate the sirens being vague. 

Why didn’t Russel go to the office to set off the alarm herself?  This is not known but the two locations are approximately four blocks away – A very short distance.

In April of 2024, Russell’s office received a $3.9 million grant to improve the siren system in St. Louis which she said needed to be updated.  This included adding multiple languages to alarm PSAs, such as Spanish, Vietnamese, Hindi, Swahili, Bosnian and Dari/Patscho.  However, no amount of siren improvements will matter if no one is there to push the button.

St. Louis Mayor Cara Spencer has placed Sarah Russell on leave, stating at a press conference:

“Let me be clear: CEMA exists to alert the community when severe weather is coming. This office failed to do that in the most horrific and deadly storm that our city has experienced in my lifetime…”

The investigation will look into why the CEMA staff, including Russell, were not in the office when the storms were anticipated.  CEMA will be temporarily led by St. Louis Fire Department Capt. John Walk until a permanent replacement is found.

The event strikes up yet another debate on the dangers of DEI hiring and the promotion of people based on identity instead of merit and intelligence.  As witnessed in cities like LA during the Palisades fires, DEI employees are like time bombs waiting to go off in communities across the country.  Everything is fine as long as nothing goes wrong, but one crisis event exposes an avalanche of incompetence among DEI managers.    

Tyler Durden
Fri, 05/23/2025 – 20:30

Armenian Crime Rings Charged With Attempted Murder, $83 Million Amazon Cargo Theft

Armenian Crime Rings Charged With Attempted Murder, $83 Million Amazon Cargo Theft

By Noi Mahoney of FreightWaves

Federal authorities on Tuesday arrested 13 alleged members of rival Armenian crime organizations locked in an apparent power struggle in Los Angeles County.

The charges include attempted murder, kidnapping, illegal firearm possession, bank and wire fraud, and cargo theft totaling more than $80 million, the U.S. Department of Justice said in a news release.

Among the defendants are Ara Artuni, 41, of Los Angeles, who is charged with attempted murder in aid of racketeering, and Robert Amiryan, 46, of Hollywood, who is charged with kidnapping.

Authorities say both men were leaders of rival Armenian organized crime syndicates, referred to as “avtoritet,” which is Russian for “authority,” and that they have been engaged in a violent feud to maintain control of the San Fernando Valley since 2022.

Artuni is charged with ordering the attempted murder of Amiryan during the summer of 2023. In retaliation, Amiryan allegedly conspired with members of his own criminal organization to kidnap and torture one of Artuni’s associates in June 2023.

In addition to attempted murder, authorities say Artuni and his criminal enterprise committed bank fraud, wire fraud and cargo theft.

Artuni and his organization allegedly targeted e-commerce giant Amazon by enrolling as carriers for the online retailer. Artuni and his men would contract trucking routes with Amazon, and while transporting the goods, diverge from the route and steal all or part of the shipments. 

The Artuni enterprise allegedly stole more than $83 million from Amazon, according to estimates provided by the company. 

“This transnational criminal organization operated with the structure and brutality of an international cartel, inflicting significant harm on public safety and causing substantial damage to legitimate commerce and supply chains,” Dwayne Angebrandts, Homeland Security Investigation’s Los Angeles acting deputy special agent in charge, said in a statement. 

Artuni’s organization also reportedly ran a “credit card bust-out” scheme in which it charged credit cards to a fake business and then “drained the business account” before credit card companies could collect the disputed funds.

Several other arrests were made in the Los Angeles area and two more in Fort Lauderdale and Hollywood, Florida. Authorities continue to look for one defendant.

Federal agents seized more than $100,000 in cash, 14 firearms and three armored vehicles in the May 20 operation, which included assistance from the Los Angles and Burbank police departments.

If convicted of all charges, the defendants could face maximum sentences ranging from 10 years to life in prison.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 05/23/2025 – 20:05

​​​​​​​Power Hungry Race: Aluminium Smelters Versus AI Data Centers 

​​​​​​​Power Hungry Race: Aluminium Smelters Versus AI Data Centers 

The ‘Powering Up America’ theme has primarily focused on the surge of AI data centers being plugged into the nation’s electric grid to fuel chatbots and the digital economy. But what’s often overlooked are other major electrification trends, like on-shoring massive aluminum smelters, that will soon compete with AI data centers for power on strained grids. 

Emirates Global Aluminium plans to break ground next year on a $4 billion smelter in Oklahoma with an annual capacity of 600,000 tons. The project, expected to take four years to complete, would mark the first new aluminum smelter built in the U.S. in 45 years—aligning with President Trump’s ‘America First’ agenda to re-shore critical mineral supply chains.

On-shoring and increasing production capacity for critical mineral supply chains are wonderful, especially aluminum, which is used in everything from consumer products to defense weapons. Yet aluminum smelters are among the most energy-intensive industrial plants in the world. 

According to the U.S. Aluminum Association, producing one metric ton of aluminum takes nearly 15,000 kilowatt-hours (kWh) of electricity. A modern smelter with a capacity of 750,000 tons, or about the size of the new Oklahoma smelter that will be online at the end of the decade, consumes more electricity than Boston. 

Reuters spoke with Matt Aboud, Senior Vice President of Strategy and Business Development at Century Aluminum, who explained that the problem for new smelters is locking in long-term competitive power contracts. 

Last week, Aboud told attendees at the CRU Aluminium Conference in London that new smelters must secure long-term power contracts to lock in profitability and recoup billions of dollars in construction costs. 

Estimates from the Aluminum Association indicate that a new U.S. smelter brought online this decade would need a 20-year power contract with prices locked in around $40 per MWh for the business to be viable. 

The push to build new aluminum smelters aligns with broader on-shoring trends and the electrification of American industry. But it’s now colliding with the explosive growth of AI data centers (see: ‘The Next AI Trade’), intensifying the battle for power demand on the nation’s strained grid.

Any smelter project is in a race with Big Tech, which is on the same hunt for energy to power its next-generation artificial intelligence data centres,” Reuters noted. 

Aluminum Association said that Microsoft paid around $115 per MWh to lock in a long-term power deal with Constellation Energy to restart Pennsylvania’s Three Mile Island nuclear plant

The group added that even reactivating shuttered aluminum lines in the four U.S. states hosting smelters would raise power prices to north of $70 per MWh. 

Emirates Global has said the smelter’s construction is contingent on securing a favorable long-term power deal with a local utility in the state. 

What’s colliding on the grid—whether from new smelters or AI data centers—is the battle for affordable, reliable power. And that’s why Trump just did this

Tyler Durden
Fri, 05/23/2025 – 19:40

Whitman College President Officiates Anti-Trump Lesbian Wedding Featuring A “Wusband”

Whitman College President Officiates Anti-Trump Lesbian Wedding Featuring A “Wusband”

By College Fix

The president of Whitman College late last month presided over the marriage between a senior at the school and her Whitman alum “wusband.”

President Sarah Bolton officiated the nuptials of Lita Bacus and “nonbinary lesbian” Fi Black at which “I do’s” and “dyke” rings were exchanged at Whitman’s Olin Hall, the Whitman Wire reports.

“Wusband,” according to UrbanDictionary.com, is “the ‘husband’ in a lesbian marriage who does all the ‘manly’ chores and helps to raise & discipline the kids rather than be the pregnant one.”

Bacus sent out emails inviting all of Walla Walla, Washington (the town in which the small, private Whitman is located) to her “Big Gay Wedding,” which she described as a “performance, a protest and a celebration.”

The wedding dress code was “dyke decadence,” and instead of gifts Bacus and Black asked for “donations to LGBTQIA+ causes.” Many in the local “young punk and queer scene” were in attendance.

In addition, “dykes are sacred,” “dyke love is holy,” and “sapphic saints” were written across a pair of pews in the hall, and the bridesmaids “sprinkled” dental dams in lieu of flower petals.

The invite reads in part

Because joy is resistance. Because marriage is a performance a state-sanctioned contract, a ritual, a public declaration-and here, it becomes a protest, a necessity, a survival strategy in the face of systemic oppression …

This piece is a response to the real and immediate dangers posed by anti-queer legislation. By bringing this act into the gallery space, the audience is forced to confront its material, legal, and emotional stakes. It is a protest, yes, but it is also a wedding. It is art because it is life, performed. It is art because levity belongs in protest. Because beauty can be defiant. Because queer love, in a world that fights to erase it, is art.

Bacus said “recent rhetoric” against gay marriage played a part in deciding to make the wedding a “protest.” The invite cites anti-gay marriage comments by three conservative U.S. representatives and SCOTUS Justice Clarence Thomas.

The Wire claims the country “has become increasingly hostile” towards the LGBTQ+ community in President Trump’s second term, using “anti-queer policy to exacerbate” the American culture wars. A Whitman student who attended the wedding said the ceremony seemed like a “giant fuck you to [the] Trump admin.”

Bacus noted she and Black met at a sculpture studio when Black “was making their giant beetles for their own art thesis.” The couple since has created DykeMint, a “slow sustainable anime inspired [sic] fashion brand that pushes the boundaries of creativity with its chaotic maximalist collage compositional pieces and unboxable aesthetic.”

Tyler Durden
Fri, 05/23/2025 – 19:15

Supreme Court Signals Support For Fed Independence Amid Trump-Era Firing Challenge

Supreme Court Signals Support For Fed Independence Amid Trump-Era Firing Challenge

The U.S. Supreme Court on Thursday took an unusual step to distance the Federal Reserve from broader legal challenges to the firing protections of independent federal agencies, offering a measure of reassurance to investors and policymakers concerned about political interference with the central bank.

In a brief, unsigned order, the Court allowed the Trump administration’s removal of two officials – from the National Labor Relations Board and the Merit Systems Protection Board – to stand while litigation proceeds. But it pointedly rejected the plaintiffs’ assertion that the outcome of their case would implicate the Federal Reserve or its top officials.

“The Federal Reserve is a uniquely structured, quasi-private entity that follows in the distinct historical tradition of the First and Second Banks of the United States,” the Court wrote, seeking to draw a clear line between the central bank and other government agencies targeted in the litigation.

Though the case could eventually return to the Court on its merits, the justices’ decision to preemptively shield the Fed from the implications of their order sends a strong signal: the legal basis for “for-cause” removal protections for members of the Fed’s Board of Governors and the Federal Open Market Committee remains intact – for now.

Fed’s Independence at Stake

The decision comes as the legal foundation of the 1935 precedent Humphrey’s Executor v. United States, which protects independent agency officials from at-will removal by the president, faces renewed scrutiny. Former acting Solicitor General Sarah Harris said earlier this year that the Justice Department would push to overturn that decision.

The concern is not academic. President Donald Trump’s public frustration with Fed Chair Jerome Powell – whom he nominated – sparked fears that a second Trump term could bring efforts to reshape the Fed through firings or intimidation. In April, Trump’s former top economic adviser Kevin Hassett said the president would “continue to study” whether Powell could be removed before his term ends in 2026.

Although Trump later walked back any suggestion of firing Powell, calling him “Mr. Too Late” and a “major loser” for resisting rate cuts, the ongoing legal wrangling over firing protections has kept markets on edge.

The Federal Reserve has held interest rates steady between 4.25% and 4.5% as it evaluates the effects of Trump-era tariffs on inflation and the labor market.

Market Implications

Goldman Sachs analysts said Thursday’s order offers meaningful reassurance that statutory changes to the Fed’s independence are unlikely in the near term.

“The Court’s decision to preemptively signal that it views the Federal Reserve differently than other government agencies strongly suggests that it is unlikely to grant the President permission to replace governors without ‘cause’,” the investment bank wrote in a Thursday note.

According to Goldman, that lowers the risk of politically motivated changes to monetary policy, which could otherwise trigger inflation, weaken the dollar, and unsettle equity markets. While analysts still see potential for political rhetoric to erode public trust in the Fed, they say the legal foundation appears more secure following the Court’s signal.

Dissenting Voices

Not everyone is convinced the Fed is immune from political reshuffling. Lev Menand, a Columbia Law School professor and former Treasury official, told the Financial Times that the Court’s carve-out for the central bank doesn’t hold water.

“While the regional Federal Reserve Banks are quasi-private, the Board in D.C. is a public agency – there’s nothing private about it,” he said. “Nor is it unique. It’s a multi-member board just like the NLRB.”

Daniel Tarullo, a former Fed governor now at Harvard Law School, sees the Court’s language as a stabilizing force. “The Court went out of its way to rebut the argument that its probable broad rollback of Humphrey’s Executor will endanger the Fed’s monetary policy independence,” he said. “That certainly augurs well for the Fed.”

Tyler Durden
Fri, 05/23/2025 – 18:50