The number of Americans filing for jobless benefits for the first time fell modestly last week to 227k (below expectations) and is basically unchanged since December 2021…

…despite the public sentiment panic by CEOs, layoffs refuse to rise (is all that whining just signaling how much virtue they have, or is it like UMich, damaged by TDS in their imaginations, but not enough to impact the real world)…

Continuing jobless claims pushed back above the critical 1.9 million Americans level once again…

…as while the private sector CEOs seem to refuse to budge (despite their misery), the ‘Deep Tristate’ is seeing continuing jobless claims surge to the highest since December 2021…

DOGE is working!!

US stocks and treasuries sold off after President Trump’s signature tax bill passed the House by the narrowest of margins (214-215), sparking fears that the surging deficit – already at a nosebleed 6.5% of GDP – necessary to fund the bill will spark even higher rates at a time when foreign buyers are boycotting US Treasury purchases. As of 8:00am, S&P futures slumped by 0.5%, trading near session lows and reversing an earlier gain of about 0.3%. Nasdaq futures dropped 0.4%. Treasuries also slumped, extending days of losses in which the 30-year yield hit the highest since 2023: the 10Y was trading at session highs of 4.62%. The dollar ended a three-day losing run while Bitcoin pushed further into record territory. Commodities are weaker across all 3 complexes: oil slumped again after BBG reported that OPEC+ is considering another production hike at the June 1 meeting. SCMP reports that Mexico pledges neutrality between US/China in the Trade War; this follows a similar announcement from Indonesia last month. Today’s macro data focus is on Flash PMIs, weekly claims, existing home sales, and regional Fed activity indicators.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks were mixed (Alphabet +1.2%, Nvidia +0.5%, Amazon +0.5%, Tesla -0.2%, Meta Platforms +0.3%, Microsoft +0.02%, Apple -0.1%). Solar stocks sink as US House Republicans’ new version of the tax and spending bill accelerates the end of incentives for clean electricity production (Sunrun -34%, Array Technologies -14%, First Solar -6%). Crypto-linked stocks gained in premarket trading after Bitcoin hit an all-time high. The world’s largest cryptocurrency reached a record price of $111,878 on Thursday amid growing optimism around the US stablecoin bill (Galaxy Digital (GLXY) +5%, Riot Platforms (RIOT) +3%, Mara Holdings (MARA) +3%). Here are some other notable premarket movers:

• Advance Auto Parts (AAP) soars 30% after the retailer of aftermarket auto components reaffirmed its comparable sales forecast for the full year.
• Analog Devices (ADI) rises 2% after the chipmaker reported adjusted earnings per share for the second quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
• Delcath Systems (DCTH) rises 2% after the specialty pharmaceutical and medical devices company issued full year 2025 guidance and announced a plan to enter into a National Medicaid Drug Rebate Agreement to expand patient access.
• Nike (NKE) shares rose in premarket trading as the company returns to Amazon.com’s online store after leaving it in 2019.
• Humana (HUM) falls 5% and UnitedHealth Group (UNH) slips 2% after the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services said it will embark on a “significant expansion” of its auditing efforts for Medicare Advantage plans.
• LiveRamp (RAMP) climbs 10% after the marketing technology company reported fourth-quarter results that beat expectations.
• Lumen Technologies (LUMN) advances 12% after AT&T agreed to buy the company’s consumer fiber operations for $5.75 billion, expanding its fast broadband service in major cities like Denver and Las Vegas.
• Manchester United (MANU) drops 5% after the English football club lost the high-stakes Europa League final to Tottenham Hotspur in Bilbao, Spain last night.
• Navitas Semiconductor (NVTS) surges 175% after the semiconductor company said Nvidia picked it to collaborate on data center power infrastructure.
• Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC) falls 4% after the oil and gas company priced its stock offering.
• Snowflake (SNOW) gains 9% after the software developer forecast product revenue for the second quarter above the average analyst estimate.
• Urban Outfitters (URBN) rises 18% after the apparel retailer reported net sales for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.

Just before 7am ET, after an all night session in the House, US lawmakers passed Trump’s “big, beautiful bill”, a sprawling multi-trillion dollar package that would avert a year-end tax increase at the expense of adding to the US debt burden. The move comes after a downgrade by Moody’s Ratings thrust concerns over the ballooning deficit into the spotlight. This has shown up in Treasuries, sapping sentiment after an equity rebound put the S&P 500 on the cusp of a bull market. Goldman calculated the yield at which stocks would crack: the bank notes that on May 1st, 10yr yield was 4.12%…we just touched 4.6% yesterday after the weak 20yr auction. At what level do yields start to put real pressure on the stock market? The easy big round number is 10yr @ 5%. The more nuanced answer is >4.7% (before the end of May) as velocity of move in rates matters much more than absolute levels (in regards to impacting stocks). When 10yr yield has moved higher by 2SD (60bps) within a one month period the stock market comes under pressure.

“Bond vigilantes are back,” Beata Manthey, a strategist at Citigroup Inc., told Bloomberg TV. “The market is worried about debt sustainability. It’s not very helpful, given how strong a rebound we’ve been seeing in equity markets.”

Later on Thursday, S&P Global will issue its preliminary May survey of manufacturing and service providers. Based on economists’ projections, industrial weakness probably continued while growth in services activity may have picked up slightly. Weekly jobless claims data is also due.

Meanwhile, the doom and gloom from Jamie Dimon continued, after the JPMorgan CEO said he can’t rule out the US economy will fall into stagflation as the country faces huge risks from both geopolitics, deficits and price pressures. “I don’t agree that we’re in a sweet spot,” Dimon told Bloomberg TV in Shanghai.

With everything else being sold, traders turned to non-fiat alternatives: Bitcoin surpassed $111,000 for the first time with traders increasingly bullish on the prospects of the cryptocurrency., gold traded back over $3,300.

“Bitcoin, and the crypto market in general, have largely decoupled from equities over the last few days,” said Richard Galvin, co-founder of hedge fund DACM. “Bitcoin continues to benefit from its market position as a non-system, store of value.”

European stocks fall as worries over rising bond yields curbed investor appetite for risky assets. The Estoxx index slumped 1%, with the yield-sensitive technology sector is among the biggest laggards. Among individual stocks, EasyJet Plc falls after the low-cost airline reported bigger-than-expected losses, while Johnson Matthey rises on a major sale of its technology business. Here are some of the biggest movers:

• Johnson Matthey shares jump as much as 34%, the most in over three years, after the company announced the sale of its catalyst technology business at an enterprise value of £1.8 billion, with the bulk of proceeds to be returned to shareholders.
• Mitchells & Butlers gains as much as 2.2% after the pub and restaurant operator delivers what analysts view as a strong update, with full-year operating profit expected to be at the top end of current consensus.
• Grenergy Renovables gains as much as 8%, hitting a new record high. RBC Capital says the Spanish renewables company has achieved strong growth in the first quarter, supported by gains of the Atacama storage project.
• Gimv gains as much as 8.9%, the most since March 2020, after the investment company posts what KBC Securities describes as another record year
• Stora Enso gains as much as 7% to its highest since March 20 after the Finnish forest and paper company said it will divest around 175,000 hectares of forest land in Sweden for a total value of €900 million.
• EasyJet shares fall as much as 6.1% after the travel firm reported a loss in the first half.
• BT shares drop as much as 5.3% after the telecom company reported a decline of 243,000 Openreach broadband lines in the quarter ended March, a sign of heightened competition among UK’s fiber builders.
• British Land shares drop as much as 7.1% in their worst one-day loss in two years, after the UK property firm’s unchanged guidance and forecast for flat 2026 earnings per share tempered a recent rally in the stock.
• Freenet shares sink as much as 16%, the most since May 2022, after the mobile communications service provider reported Ebitda for the first quarter that missed estimates.
• Elior drops as much as 5.3% following a mixed first-half report from the commercial catering company.
• Intertek shares drop as much as 3% after the inspection services provider reported disappointing organic growth for the first four months of the year.
• MPC Container Ships falls as much as 17%, the most since 2021, after the Norwegian shipping firm presented its latest earnings and a new dividend policy.

Asian equities dropped the most in two weeks, driven by losses in technology stocks after Treasury yields jumped overnight on concerns about the US budget deficit. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 0.8%, the biggest decline since May 8, with Alibaba, TSMC and Samsung contributing the most to the losses. South Korea’s Kospi retreated over 1%, while benchmark gauges in Hong Kong, Japan and India also lost ground. Philippine stocks weakened after President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. ordered his cabinet to resign.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rebounded to rise 0.1% after three straight days of losses. EUR/USD fell 0.2% to 1.131 after data showed private-sector activity in the euro area unexpectedly shrank in May. USD/JPY slumped as much as 0.6% to 142.81, the lowest level in two weeks, before paring the move to trade 0.2% lower. Despite the latest drop, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index remains on track to cap a sixth straight week of gains. JPMorgan Chase is committed to long-term investment in China, despite tensions with the US, Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon said in a Bloomberg TV interview. 

In rates, the yield for 10-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 4.62% on Thursday. The worry in debt markets is that the tax bill would add trillions of dollars to an already bulging deficit at a time when investors’ appetite is US assets is slumping. The 30-year yield reaching new multimonth highs of 5.15% while short-end tenors richen, pivoting around a little-changed 7-year sector. 5s30s spread near 97bp is widest since May 1. European sovereign curves are also steeper.  The Treasury will sell $18 billion of 10-year TIPS in a reopening at 1pm New York; Wednesday’s 20-year new-issue auction tailed by about 1bp, spurring long-end yields higher. Focal points include House Republicans narrowly passing President Trump’s tax bill shortly before 7am, PMI and jobless claims data, a 10-year TIPS auction and comments by NY Fed President Williams.

Looking at today’s calendar, US economic data includes April Chicago Fed national activity index and weekly jobless claims (8:30am), May preliminary S&P Global US PMIs (9:45am), April existing home sales (10am) and May Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity (11am). Fed speaker slate includes Richmond Fed President Barkin (8am) and Williams (2pm).

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini -0.5%
• Nasdaq 100 mini -0.4%, 
• Stoxx Europe 600 -1%
• DAX -0.8%, CAC 40 -1%
• 10-year Treasury yield -2 basis points at 4.58%
• VIX -0.4 points at 20.49
• Bloomberg Dollar Index +0.1% at 1220.46
• euro -0.3% at $1.1297
• WTI crude -1.5% at $60.66/barrel

Top Overnight News

• A man fatally shot two Israeli Embassy staff members late Wednesday near a Jewish museum in downtown Washington. WSJ
• Scott Bessent and his Japanese counterpart Katsunobu Kato confirmed existing currency views and didn’t discuss FX levels when they met in Canada. BBG
• On a call Monday, President Trump told European leaders that Russian President Vladimir Putin isn’t ready to end the Ukraine war because he thinks he is winning. This runs counter to what Trump has often said publicly, that he believes Putin genuinely wants peace. WSJ
• BOJ board member Asahi Noguchi said on Thursday he saw no need for the central bank to intervene in the bond market to stem recent sharp rises in super-long yields, describing the moves as “rapid but not abnormal.” Noguchi also said the central bank must pause its interest rate hikes for the time being until there is more clarity on the impact of U.S. tariffs on the economy. RTRS
• Israel is making preparations to “swiftly” strike Iran’s nuclear facilities if talks between Washington and Tehran collapse without a deal. Axios
• OPEC+ members are discussing whether to agree on another super-sized production increase at their meeting June 1, delegates said. That would be the third straight month of adding more barrels to the market. Oil declined. BBG
• Eurozone flash PMIs for May were mixed, with modest upside on manufacturing (49.4, up from 49 in Apr and above the Street’s 49.2 forecast) and slight downside on services (48.9, down from 50.1 in Apr and below the Street’s 50.5 forecast), while inflation in aggregate cooled (driven by manufacturing). S&P
• US/EU trade talks – Brussels is offering to extend an existing shellfish trade deal w/the US that expires on 7/31 as an inducement to striking a broader agreement around tariffs. FT
• Lutnick says he predicts a slew of trade deals by the middle of the summer and doesn’t anticipate tariffs fueling higher prices in the US. Axios
• BofA Institute Total Card Spending (Week to 17th May) -0.7% (vs +1.0% average in April)
• US President Trump posted “I am giving very serious consideration to bringing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac public. I will be speaking with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick, and the Director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, William Pulte, among others, and will be making a decision in the near future.”

Trade/Tariffs

• EU is open to extending lobster deal as part of a package to remove tariffs imposed by US President Trump, according to FT.
• South African President Ramaphosa said following a meeting with US President Trump that they had discussions on trade and there will continue to be engagement on tariffs. It was also reported that South Africa’s Trade Minister said they submitted a proposal regarding a framework agreement with the US and had some US feedback, while they then resubmitted a revised document with the proposal about a trade agreement.
• Canada’s Minister of International Trade and Intergovernmental Affairs LeBlanc is to visit Washington DC to meet with Trump admin officials, while it was also reported that Canada’s Finance Minister Champagne said he will discuss Canada’s role as the largest customer for US exports in meeting with US Treasury Secretary Bessent.
• Japanese Finance Minister Kato said he told Bessent that US tariffs are regrettable and stated tariffs are not an appropriate means to correct macroeconomic imbalances that are behind trade imbalances, while Kato noted that he did not directly discuss Japan’s US Treasury holdings in the meeting with Bessent.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent and Japanese Finance Minister Kato discussed global security and bilateral trade and currency issues on the sidelines of the G7, while they reaffirmed shared belief that exchange rates should be market-determined and reaffirmed USD/JPY exchange rate currently reflects fundamentals.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were on the back foot following the sell-off on Wall St where stocks, treasuries and the dollar were pressured amid deficit concerns and a weak 20-year auction. ASX 200 retreated with energy and tech front-running the declines, although continued strength in gold producers atoned for some of the losses. Nikkei 225 gapped beneath the 37,000 level amid a firmer currency and proceeded in a somewhat choppy fashion as participants also digested data releases, including a surprise surge in Japanese Machinery Orders and mixed PMI figures. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the downbeat sentiment in the absence of any fresh bullish catalysts and after recent earnings results failed to inspire, while the mainland initially showed resilience in early trade before succumbing to the broad risk-off mood.

Top Asian News

• PBoC to sell CNY 500bln of one year medium term lending facility loans on Friday.
• RBA’s Hauser, on recent trip to China, says found confidence Beijing would do what was needed to sustain growth; Australian exporters upbeat about resilience of China demand Found striking confidence that China going into trade war with strong hand. China organisations expected large share of economic costs of tariffs would fall on US. China contacts expressed a determination not to cushion those costs. Found little expectation that yuan would be devalued to insulate US from tariffs. Possible could see more intense competition at home from Chinese firms discounting. Unclear how big an impact given limited overlap between Chinese and Australian output.
• BoJ’s Noguchi says they do not look at the size of JGB buying from the standpoint of monetary policy. In tapering, market predictability and flexibility is the most important. Does not think it is appropriate to recklessly intervene to correct bond yield moves. Should not move on rates when there is a lack of clarity on economic outlook.
• Japanese Economy Minister Akazawa held unofficial phone talks with US Treasury Secretary Bessent before Wednesday, according to TV Tokyo; Bessent reportedly expressed reluctance to meet Akazawa this week; the two will meet next week instead.
• China’s MOFCOM says China firmly opposes US export controls on Chinese AI chips.

European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.7%) opened lower across the board, in a continuation of the pressure seen on Wall St/APAC trade and have traded at subdued levels throughout the morning. European sectors hold a strong negative bias, with only Basic Resources and Chemicals marginally holding in positive territory. Consumer Products is underperforming after LVMH’s (-1.5%) cautious comments on the Luxury sector. Chemicals names are faring better vs peers, with Bayer (+1.7%) doing much of the heavy lifting. The Co. benefits from a WSJ report which suggests the US HHS Secretary’s move will “go easier than expected on pesticides in farming”.

Top European News

• ECB’s Nagel sees progress on the US tariff dispute but more hurdles to overcome and noted the US was showing a better understanding of Europe’s point of view, while he is a little more confident than perhaps was a few days ago. Nagel stated that German economic growth in Q1 could surprise on the upside but will get worse in Q2 and could see 1% plus growth in 2026.
• ECB’s Vujcic says “Euro area growth is positive but low; inflation is slowly converging to 2% target; expect to get close to 2% target at end-2025” Expect to reach 2% target in early 2026.
• IMF forecasts French growth of 0.6% in 2025 and 1% in 2026; says France needs fiscal effort of 1.1% of GDP in 2026, followed by an average of about 0.9% over the medium term; Says France needs credible and well-designed package of measures to rein in deficit over time.
• EU Parliament backs very high tariffs on nitrogen-based fertilisers and farm produce from Russia and Belarus.

Eurozone PMIs

• EU HCOB Composite Flash PMI (May) 49.5 vs. Exp. 50.7 (Prev. 50.4); HCOB Services Flash PMI (May) 48.9 vs. Exp. 50.3 (Prev. 50.1); HCOB Manufacturing Flash PMI (May) 49.4 vs. Exp. 49.3 (Prev. 49.0)
• French HCOB Composite Flash PMI (May) 48.0 vs. Exp. 48.0 (Prev. 47.8); HCOB Services Flash PMI (May) 47.4 vs. Exp. 47.5 (Prev. 47.3); HCOB Manufacturing Flash PMI (May) 49.5 vs. Exp. 48.9 (Prev. 48.7)
• German HCOB Composite Flash PMI (May) 48.6 vs. Exp. 50.4 (Prev. 50.1); HCOB Services Flash PMI (May) 47.2 vs. Exp. 49.5 (Prev. 49.0); HCOB Manufacturing Flash PMI (May) 48.8 vs. Exp. 48.9 (Prev. 48.4)
• UK Flash Composite PMI (May) 49.4 vs. Exp. 49.3 (Prev. 48.5); Flash Services PMI (May) 50.2 vs. Exp. 50.0 (Prev. 49.0); Flash Manufacturing PMI (May) 45.1 vs. Exp. 46.0 (Prev. 45.4)

FX

• USD is currently relatively steady and mixed vs. peers following three consecutive sessions of losses. With trade updates lacking, focus is currently on the fiscal front as markets await the outcome of the House vote on President Trump’s tax bill. If the bill passes this hurdle, attention from an FX perspective will be on how back-end US rates react to the price tag and impact on the deficit. This week’s data highlights are presented today via weekly claims and flash PMI metrics. The latter will likely carry greater sway as markets look for evidence on how the trade war is impacting US business. Fed speaker’s today include Williams and Barkin.
• The rally in the EUR has paused for breath. This morning’s macro focus has been on EZ PMI metrics which have painted a picture of a stabilising manufacturing sector but a slowdown in the services industry. The trade war is clearly acting as a cloud over the Eurozone economy; note, yesterday Bloomberg reported that the EU is preparing a trade proposal for the US to steer momentum into talks. Today’s docket sees the ECB’s account of the April meeting. Currently trading around the 1.13 mark.
• JPY is top of the G10 leaderboard alongside the soft risk sentiment and as markets digest comments from Japanese Finance Minister Kato and BoJ board member Noguchi. On the former, Kato noted that he agreed with US Treasury Secretary Bessent that FX rates should be set by markets and they did not directly discuss Japan’s US Treasury holdings. Elsewhere, BoJ’s Noguchi, in response to recent moves in Japanese yields, said that he does not think it is appropriate to recklessly intervene to correct bond yield moves.
• GBP is a touch firmer vs. the USD and extending its winning run for a fourth consecutive session. The latest round of PMI metrics from the UK saw the services component beat expectations and return to expansionary territory, manufacturing missed but ultimately, the composite rose and just about beat the consensus. Looking ahead, today’s speaker slate sees a trio of MPC members with Breeden, Dhingra & Pill all due on deck. Cable is currently contained within Wednesday’s 1.3380-1.3468 range.
• Mildly diverging fortunes for the Antipodes with AUD outperforming NZD as the AUD/NZD cross looks to close the post-RBA gap lower. Incremental newsflow for both has been lacking as the New Zealand Budget and forecasts garnered little fanfare and comments from RBA’s Hauser proved to be non-incremental.

Fixed Income

• USTs are a little firmer, attempting to recover following the hefty losses seen in the prior session following a weak US 20yr auction. Focus firmly is on the fiscal front. Overnight, the House Rules Committee passed President Trump’s tax/spending bill. Thereafter, the broader floor voted to open debate on the tax bill, a debate process that lasts for around two hours (started approx. 08:00BST) and is followed by a vote on the bill. Progress on the bill is bearish for USTs as it will increase the US’ debt level, a figure which has been increasing and was the driver behind the Moody’s downgrade last week. USTs currently trading around 109-19.
• Bunds started the day in the red but currently at the upper-end of a 129.49-91 band. Bunds have been gradually making their way off lows throughout the morning, edging higher slowly into the day’s data points which have featured generally weak Flash PMIs, with the expectation of Manufacturing where tariff-mitigation measures appear to have provided some support. No real reaction to the German Ifo figures at the same time. Ahead, ECB Minutes though as usual these will be deemed stale; focus will be on ECB’s de Guindos, Elderson and Escriva throughout the day.
• Gilts are softer, trading slightly weaker than EGBs throughout the morning as has been the case at several points over the last few weeks but with today’s underperformance likely a function of Gilts reacting to Wednesday’s US auction and borrowing data this morning. PSNB data this morning came in well above expectations and the prior, though that was subject to a downward revision, in another unwelcome series for Chancellor Reeves after the hotter-than-expected inflation print earlier this week. Given all this, Gilts opened lower by 18 ticks and then slipped another 13 to a 90.29 trough in short order.
• Swedish Debt Office sees the 2025 deficit at SEK 93bln (Nov. forecast 65bln), nominal bond volume SEK 118bln (Nov. forecast 100bln); “new plan also contains an additional foreign currency bond for this year”.
• Spain sells EUR 6.2bln vs exp. EUR 5.5-6.5bln 5.15% 2028, 3.10% 2031 & 1.00% 2042 Bonds.
• France sells EUR 12.497bln vs exp. EUR 10.5-12.5bln 2.40% 2028, 2.70% 2031, 0.00% 2032 OATs.

Commodities

• Crude futures were pressured overnight by the downbeat mood across markets and following bearish inventory data. Renewed pressure was seen during the European morning amid source reports that OPEC+ members are reportedly discussing whether to agree to another output hike of 411k BPD in July, via Bloomberg citing sources, although no agreement has been reached yet. WTI resides in a USD 60.37-61.75/bbl range while its Brent counterpart trades in a USD 63.67-65.03/bbl parameter.
• Overall, there is mixed trade across precious metals with hefty underperformance in spot palladium as it tracks the downbeat sentiment across the auto sector. Spot gold trades flat now and currently resides in a current USD 3,311.08-3,345.47/oz range.
• Base metals are mostly lower amid the broader downbeat risk profile, whilst Flash PMIs from Europe this morning were mixed but the commentary was mostly downbeat. 3M LME copper resides closer to the bottom end of a USD 9,495.65-9,579.20/t range at the time of writing.
• UK urged lowering price cap on Russian oil at the G7 meeting, according to Bloomberg.
• OPEC+ members are reportedly discussing on whether to agree to another output hike of 411k BPD in July, via Bloomberg citing sources; one of the options being discussed, no agreement has been reached yet.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• Iranian Foreign Minister says “We have a better understanding in many areas, but in some, especially enrichment, differences still remain. I think we cannot reach an agreement until this issue is resolved.”, via Iran Nuances
• Israel is preparing to carry out a swift attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities if nuclear talks between the US and Iran fail, via Walla citing sources.
• Israeli military said it identified and intercepted a missile launched from Yemen towards Israel.
• Two Israeli embassy employees were killed in a shooting near a Jewish museum in Washington DC, while the Washington DC police chief announced the suspect was detained by event security and had chanted “Free Palestine” while in custody.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Moscow Mayor says Russian has downed two drones en route to Moscow
• US President Trump told European leaders in private that Russian President Putin isn’t ready to end the war, according to WSJ.

Geopolitics: Other

• North Korea said it will convene the ruling party central committee meeting in late June and North Korean leader Kim watched the launch of a 5000-ton destroyer, while an accident occurred during the launch of the North Korean warship. Furthermore, Kim said the accident was unacceptable and was the result of negligence and irresponsibility.
• Indian PM Modi says Pakistan will not get water, to which India has a right.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30 am: Apr Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, est. -0.25, prior -0.03
• 8:30 am: May 17 Initial Jobless Claims, est. 230k, prior 229k
• 8:30 am: May 10 Continuing Claims, est. 1881.62k, prior 1881k
• 9:45 am: May P S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI, est. 49.85, prior 50.2
• 9:45 am: May P S&P Global U.S. Services PMI, est. 51, prior 50.8
• 9:45 am: May P S&P Global U.S. Composite PMI, est. 50.3, prior 50.6
• 10:00 am: Apr Existing Home Sales, est. 4.1m, prior 4.02m
• 10:00 am: Apr Existing Home Sales MoM, est. 1.99%, prior -5.9%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Morning from Holland where I’ve just been told I’m now a BA Gold Card holder for life after my latest trip tipped me over the landmark. Annoyingly in my first 10 plus years of my career I didn’t collect tier points as I couldn’t be bothered to fill in the forms. So what could have been. I’ll make sure that on my way back home today I’ll have a celebratory decaf latte in the lounge.

If you collected air miles for issuing government debt then many DM countries would have been in the first class lounge many years ago and over the last 24 hours concerns have continued to mount about debt sustainability. We should put it into some perspective as sensible people have been worried about debt sustainability for years. Indeed if you’d have told anyone 10-20 years ago that the US could comfortably fund 7% mid-cycle deficits in recent years then most would have been incredulous at the prospect. So we could have sustainability fears for years to come before an inevitable accident or event happens. However it’s fair to say that events in 2025 have brought forward any day of reckoning.

Yesterday saw the 30yr Treasury yield (+12.3bps to 5.09%) close above 5% for the first time since October 2023, and only 2bps away from its highest level since 2007. Even during the inflation peak at 9.1% in 2022, 30 year US yields didn’t climb above 4.40% that year. The only time they’ve been briefly above 5% since 2007 was at the peak of the Treasury sell off in autumn 2023, when yields rose by over 100bps in under three months following an increase in the supply of long-dated bonds and delay of Fed rate cut expectations. It took a change in issuance duration from the Treasury to calm the long-end.

While Treasury yields were already trading around 5bps higher midway through yesterday’s session, they took another major step higher after a soft 20yr auction, which saw $16bn of bonds issued at 5.05%, +1.2bps above the pre-sale yield. This ended a pattern seen in the previous two sessions of an early Treasury sell-off reversing during US trading hours. Real yields led the move higher, with 30yr real yields rising +11.2bps to 2.78%, their highest level since 2008. Elsewhere along the curve, the 10yr yield (+11.2bps) rose to 4.60% and even the front-end wasn’t immune to the selloff, as the 2yr yield (+4.7bps) also moved back up to 4.02%. And in a repeat of concerns over US ability to attract foreign investors to fund its twin deficits, the rise in yields came while the dollar index (-0.56%) lost ground for a third session running. This morning US Treasuries are quieter, trading 1-2bps lower across the curve.

The soft 20yr auction was also a trigger for a broader market slump, with the S&P 500 falling from -0.2% on the day to -1.61% by the close, its worst day in the past month. This was a very broad-based decline with only 18 advancers in the whole index and the equal-weighted version of the S&P down -2.15%. The Mag-7 (-1.03%) saw a relative outperformance, mostly thanks to a +2.79% advance for Alphabet. Over in Europe, markets had closed before the US sell-off, with the STOXX 600 (-0.04%) little changed, while Germany’s DAX (+0.36%) reached another record high that took its YTD gains to +21.16%. European futures are around two-thirds of a percent lower as I type.

All those moves came amid an increased focus on the fiscal implication of the US tax bill going through the House of Representatives, which includes tax cuts that would increase the deficit over the years ahead. Initially, it had looked as though we might get a vote on the bill yesterday, which Speaker Johnson said he was planning on. But the chances diminished as the day went on, as various Republican members were still signalling their opposition. As a reminder, they only have a 220-212 margin in the House, so it only requires a handful of votes against (along with the Democrats) to vote down any bill.

In terms of the latest on the budget bill, some of the main issues appeared to be overcome yesterday with the House Republican leadership releasing an revised version late last night US time. That included raising the proposed state and local tax (SALT) deduction up to $40,000, from $10,000 at present, as several Republicans from higher-tax states had threatened to vote against a bill that didn’t see a big enough increase in the SALT limit. And to placate fiscal conservatives, the updated bill would speed up the implementation of Medicaid work requirements and a reduction in Biden-era clean energy tax breaks. As I write this, it still remains to be seen if the revised bill will pass the House, though reporting last night suggested that Trump and Speaker Johnson had assuaged the opposition from the right-wing House Freedom Caucus.

Turning to the global moves, the bond selloff also wasn’t helped by an upside surprise in the UK CPI print. That showed headline CPI rising more than expected to +3.5% in April (vs. +3.3% expected), whilst core inflation also rose to +3.8% (vs. +3.6% expected). In absolute terms, it was also the fastest headline inflation rate since January 2024, so that led investors to dial back their expectations for rate cuts from the Bank of England. For example, the amount of cuts priced by December came down -3.2bps on the day to 38bps. And in turn, gilts underperformed their counterparts elsewhere, with the 10yr yield up +5.4bps to 4.76%. But sovereign bonds also sold off across Europe, with yields on 10yr bunds (+3.9ps), OATs (+4.9bps) and BTPs (+4.0bps) all moving higher.

In trade news, Bloomberg reported yesterday that the EU has shared a revised trade proposal with Washington, which includes steps such as gradually reducing tariffs to zero on non-sensitive agricultural products and industrial goods, as it aims to build new momentum for transatlantic talks.

Looking forward, the main highlight today will be the flash PMIs for May from around the world. Those will be interesting, as they’re one of the first indications we have for how the global economy has performed this month, particularly given not all of the Liberation Day impact would have been immediately clear in April. Overnight, we’ve already had the numbers from Japan and Australia. Data showed that Australia’s manufacturing sector has maintained its expansion for the fifth consecutive month, with the S&P Global manufacturing PMI holding steady at 51.7 in May. The services PMI decreased to 50.5 from 51.0 previously, while the composite fell to 50.6 in May from 51.0 in the prior month.

Japan’s manufacturing sector continued its decline in May, marking the 11th consecutive month below 50, coming in at 49.0 in May, showing a slight improvement from the previous month’s level of 48.7. On a more positive note, services remained in expansion at 50.8 in May, although it slowed from April’s 52.4. The composite declined to 49.8 in May from 51.2 in April.

Asian equity markets are following on from Wall Street’s late decline. The KOSPI (-1.16%) is leading the way, primarily due to losses in technology stocks. It is followed by the Nikkei (-1.12%), Hang Seng (-0.55%) and the S&P/ASX 200 (-0.54%). Mainland Chinese markets are relatively flat amid increasing optimism that Beijing will introduce additional stimulus measures to bolster the economy.

Meanwhile Bitcoin is fast approaching $112,000 and trading at a new record as hopes increase that Stablecoin regulation will soon pass after the advancement of legislation yesterday. The US debt instability has probably helped too.
To the day ahead now, and the main data highlight will be the flash PMIs from Europe and the US. Otherwise, we’ll get the US weekly initial jobless claims and existing home sales for April, whilst in Germany there’s the Ifo’s business climate indicator for May. From central banks, we’ll hear from ECB Vice President de Guindos, the ECB’s Holzmann, Vujcic, Nagel, Elderson and Escriva, the Fed’s Barkin and Williams, and the BoE’s Breeden, Dhingra and Pill. We’ll also get the ECB’s account of their April meeting.

Today, May 22, is a special day for cryptocurrencies.

It’s Bitcoin Pizza Day… and the cryptocurrency is making new record highs…

Fifteen years ago, programmer Laszlo Hanyecz made the first documented purchase of goods using Bitcoin, paying 10,000 BTC for two Papa John’s pizzas.

Today, that same order is worth over $1.1 billion – almost the same as the entire market cap of Papa John’s!!

It’s bitcoin pizza day: the 10,000 bitcoin spent on 2 Papa John’s pizzas in 2010 by Laszlo Hanyecz is now worth $1.1 billion, just shy of Papa John’s market cap of $1.3 billion

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 22, 2025

“What was once considered a highly speculative risk has evolved into a serious asset class,” said Ulli Spankowski, chief digital officer at Boerse Stuttgart Group.

As CoinDesk reports, Hanyecz has long shrugged off the missed fortune” tag, telling CBS in 2019 that the transaction made bitcoin “real” to him.

He mined the coins back when BTC was under a penny, and few could have predicted the multi-trillion-dollar asset it would become.

And as the world celebrates, bitcoin rallied up near $112,000 overnight – a new record high…

Source: Bloomberg

With flows into BTC ETFs resurgent in recent weeks…

Source: Bloomberg

And that move has pushed the largest cryptocurrency’s market cap above that of Amazon…

Source: companiesmarketcap.com,

Market data shows that Bitcoin had a market cap of $2.205 trillion at the time of writing, $70 billion more than the $2.135 trillion Amazon valuation.

“By surpassing Amazon in terms of capitalization, Bitcoin has attracted even more attention from the non-crypto audience,” said Alex Obchakevich, founder of Obchakevich Research. 

Obchakevich said the latest rally “will strengthen confidence in Bitcoin and lead to new injections into the crypto market.”

The surge came as Bitcoin set a new all-time high and traded up near $112,000, which Obchavich said will “attract new investors to large funds.”

Obchakevich noted that institutional players continue to expand their role in the digital asset space:

“In May, BlackRock became the second largest bitcoin holder after Satoshi Nakamoto, surpassing Binance in this indicator.”

Hassan Khan, the CEO of Bitcoin liquidity platform Ordeez, told Cointelegraph that “this is a structural change.” 

He explained that “Bitcoin is no longer simply a hedge, it’s in the process of becoming a benchmark currency.”

According to CoinMarketCap data, the total cryptocurrency market cap stood at $3.49 trillion at the time of writing. While high, this is still nearly 6% lower than the all-time high of $3.71 trillion reported at the end of 2024.

Analysts say bitcoin’s latest upward momentum is primarily driven by institutional factors, such as large capital inflows into spot ETFs and continued fundraising by publicly traded firms like Strategy to invest in bitcoin.

“Today’s demand is driven by institutional-grade infrastructure and stronger regulatory clarity,” said Caroline Bowler, CEO at BTC Markets.

“Investor sentiment has shifted decisively, reflecting institutional-style allocations.”

But, global liquidity is rising…

…and for now, it’s gold and bitcoin that is the ‘outlet’… and as Standard Chartered’s Geoff Kenrick pointed out recently, global sovereigns are ‘quietly’ buying bitcoin (as he projects the cryptocurrency reaches $500k by the end of Trump’s term in office)

President Donald Trump’s multi-trillion-dollar tax package—also known as the “Big, Beautiful Bill”—cleared the House in a last-minute 215–214 vote on Thursday morning. The bill now moves to the Senate, where Republicans are calling for major revisions ahead of an expected vote in August. It aims to prevent a year-end tax hike and a potential debt default but would significantly increase the near-term federal deficit.

🚨 #BREAKING: The House of Representatives ERUPTS in cheers and applause as President Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill officially PASSES

CONGRATULATIONS, 47! 🇺🇸🔥

✅ No tax on tips or overtime
✅ $175B for deportations and the wall
✅ Tax relief for seniors
✅ Making his 2017 tax… pic.twitter.com/HtchiQqvCx

— Nick Sortor (@nicksortor) May 22, 2025

The 215-214 House vote, with one abstention, was met with loud cheers by House Republicans. Some of the key provisions include:

• Extension of Trump-era tax cuts and new relief, such as exempting tips and overtime from taxation.

• The state and local tax (SALT) deduction cap will be increased to $40,000, with phase-outs for high earners.

• Cuts to safety-net programs such as Medicaid and food stamps, alongside new work requirements starting in December 2026.

• Rollbacks on clean energy tax credits, boosting fossil fuel incentives. 

• Major increases in military and border security spending.

• New taxes targeting elite universities (e.g., Harvard and other Ivy Leagues) and immigrant remittances.

• The elimination of EV tax credits, replaced by interest deductions on U.S.-built vehicle loans

It is interesting to note that Reps. Warren Davidson of Ohio and Thomas Massie of Kentucky were the only Republicans to vote against the Big, Beautiful Bill. They warned about mounting deficits that would result if the bill were passed. 

We provided Zero Hedge Pro Subs with an in-depth analysis of how the Big, Beautiful Bill would surge near-term deficits, adding about $5 trillion in debt.

Read more here…

The ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’ Will “Massively” Increase Near-Term Deficits, Add $5 Trillilon In Debt https://t.co/M6h17IJglA

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 21, 2025

In the bond market, the US 30-year Treasury yield moved higher after the bill narrowly passed the House, hitting 5.12%, the highest level since October 2023. This level is nearing its highest point since 2007. 

With Treasury yields soaring, perhaps it’s time for Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to fire up the “big toolkit”…

Rep. Nathaniel Moran (R., Texas) stated: “This bill is our opportunity to deliver on the promises we made. At its core, the one big, beautiful bill is about more than dollars and cents. It’s about liberty and empowering the American people.”

The Wall Street Journal noted, “Republicans are aiming to get the bill to Trump’s desk by July 4. The real deadline might be a bit later.” 

Democrats blasted the bill as taking money away from the social safety net to fund tax cuts for the wealthy…

“It’s really one big broken promise,” said Rep. Suzan DelBene (D., Wash.), adding, “Republicans have spent months fighting over how many Americans they’re going to kick off Medicaid and how fast.”

*Developing…

The U.S. is one of the highest-paying countries globally, but the average earnings differ significantly between industries.

This infographic, via Visual Capitalist’s Niccolo Conte, ranks average annual salaries across major U.S. industries using data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics as of March 2025. The data covers private industries, and annual salary figures are estimated by multiplying average weekly earnings by 52.

Which Industries Pay the Most?

The average annual salary across all U.S. industries (ex. government employees) is around $64,000. In the utilities sector, the highest-paying industry, the average employee makes nearly $114,000 annually.

Here’s a look at the highest and lowest-paying industries in America:

The BLS updates earnings data on a monthly basis. The above figures are based on data from the March 2025 release.

The utilities sector includes occupations related to electric power generation, including wind turbine technicians and solar photovoltaic installers—the two fastest-growing jobs of the next decade.

The information industry, which includes all types of software and computer-related jobs, ranks second with nearly $100,000 in average annual earnings. It’s also among the most profitable industries for companies in America.

Mining/logging and financial activities have nearly equivalent average pay of just over $92,000 per year. Other well-paying industries include professional services, construction, wholesale trade, and manufacturing—each paying more than the $64,000 average across all industries.

On the other end of the wage spectrum, the leisure and hospitality sector has the lowest average salary of around $30,000 per year. The retail trade industry, the second-biggest by number of employees, is also among the lowest-paying with around $39,000 in average annual salary.

Which Industries Are Adding the Most Jobs?

Over the 12 months ended April 2025, the private education and health services industry added 894,000 jobs, with about 70% of these additions being in the healthcare segment.

The leisure and hospitality sector followed with 225,000 new jobs, followed by transportation and warehousing (151,000) and construction (143,000).

Employment in the public sector also increased by 322,000 employees, although the Federal government shed 6,000 jobs.

If you enjoyed this infographic, check out The Biggest Industries of 2040, on the Voronoi app.

Authored by Chris Morrison via DailyScpetic.org,

Over the last few days the UK has experienced balmy spring weather with temperatures often settling in the low 20s Celsius. The Met Office has been out in force colouring the maps orange and declaring ‘extreme’ highs all over the green and pleasant land. Or more accurately, a remarkably few chosen spots across the g&p land. Net Zero promotion demands ever higher temperature recordings so only unnaturally heat-ravaged sites provide most of the daily records. I looked at the last nine days of Met Office records to Sunday May 18th and can reveal that nearly nine out of 10 local ‘extreme’ daily temperature highs were posted in junk Class 4 and super junk Class 5 sites with internationally-recognised ‘uncertainties’ of 2°C and 5°C respectively.

Certain locations crop up constantly in the records. In nine days the Scottish sites at Aboyne and Tyndrum recorded area highs eight and seven times respectively. In England, Coton-in-the-Elms recorded seven daily highs while Kielder Castle posted six. Of course the recording of highs in these corrupted sites didn’t mean the air temperature was representative of the wider surrounding area. It just meant that the sites were poorly located next to unnatural heat sources and were producing a false natural air record, recently re-badged by the Met Office as a so-called ‘extreme” high. Until the Met Office sorts out its largely junk-class 380-plus weather station network, these records and recordings are largely meaningless.

Every day the Met Office posts a daily high temperature for 16 locations around the UK. In the nine consecutive days under review, I initially found that 83.8% of the highs were recorded in Class 4 and 5 sites rated by the World Meteorological Organisation to have the large ‘uncertainties’ up to 5°C. No less than 36.6% of records came from Class 5 sites that have no qualifying criteria for accuracy and can be located anywhere. Quite how any Class 4 and 5 site can be used to calculate a national let alone a global temperature has long been a mystery, and their central use to promote the Net Zero fantasy is a scientific and political scandal. But I looked further into the claimed records and found the overall picture was even worse than it first appeared.

The above picture from Google Earth shows the location of the Kirkwall weather station marked in red. It is claimed to be a Class 2 site, a pristine rating with no ‘uncertainties’. The Met Office has very few of these Class 2 rated sites, with 78% of its stations to be found in the bottom two junk categories. But there is no way this is a Class 2 site. It is located at Kirkwall airport, barely 50 metres from what appears to be the aircraft park. Nearby buildings, car parks and roads provide ample opportunities for heat corruptions. Yet six times in the last nine days Kirkwall was said to hold the temperature record for Orkney and Shetland. I removed the supposedly ‘non-junk’ Kirkwall from the overall calculation with the result that no less than 87.4% of daily highs are in the junk classes.

Of course it beggars belief that on a large island comprising four different nations and wide variations in geographical locations the same old suspects keep recording the hottest daily temperatures. Was nowhere warmer for seven days in the East Midlands than Coton-in-the-Elms? What is so special about Kielder Castle that on six days it was hotter than everywhere else in North-East England? Should heat lovers in Northern Ireland and Wales move to Castlederg and Porthmadog respectively where they would have enjoyed five days of record highs? Scotland is often on the chilly side, so can we assume that house prices have a premium in Tyndrum, where in the nine days under review it only twice lost the highest temperature spot in the Central, Tayside and Fife region?

Earlier this month, citizen super sleuth Ray Sanders examined the central England Class 5 weather station at Coton-in-the-Elms and concluded: “There are worse sites … but not that many.”

Late last year, Science Feedback ‘fact checked’ articles published by both the Daily Sceptic and Ray Sanders detailing the junk status of most of the Met Office sites and its invention of temperature data from over 100 non-existent sites. Written largely by the Met Office, the ‘fact check’ suggested that stations rated internally as ‘Unsatisfactory’ did not meet the required standards for data validity, and recordings would not be used in the official records. A recent Freedom of Information request revealed that just 27 sites had been placed on the meteorological naughty step. As they used to say in the Wild West days of the City of London, self-regulation. like self-abuse, leads to exceedingly short sight. Nevertheless if the Met Office, marking its own homework, says the 27 sites are rubbish, who are we to argue?

It is therefore a surprise to see that Castlederg is on the  ‘Unsatisfactory’ list and, as noted above, it produced a recent local record five days out of nine. It is possible the list has been updated in the last few months and Castlederg has been removed. It would be interesting to discover if it was on the list on July 21st 2021, when a Northern Ireland record temperature of 31.3°C was declared at the site. Other unsatisfactory sites quoted in the last few days include Redesdale Camp and Hawarden, the latter being a Class 4 airport location that holds the national temperature record for Wales set on July 21st 2021.

Why is all this relevant and important?

As we have shown many times at the Daily Sceptic, this super-heated data is fed into the mainstream to promote the political needs of Net Zero. 

Just one example out of many saw Justin Rowlatt from the BBC reporting last July that climate change is dramatically increasing the frequency of “extreme” high temperatures in the UK, “new Met Office analysis has confirmed”. Rowlatt also observed that there had been a 40% increase in the number of “pleasant” days, defined as around 20°C. “These changes may sound positive,” wails the BBC activist-in-chief, “but the UK’s shifting climate represents a dangerous upheaval for our ecosystems as well as our infrastructure.”

Authored by Alastair Paynter via OilPrice.com,

• A convergence of crises – geopolitical shifts, energy instability, and economic stagnation – marks the end of a historical era and the beginning of a more volatile multipolar world order.

• Challenges include mass immigration, a potential Ukraine settlement favoring Russia, reduced U.S. security guarantees, and unsustainable fiscal models. Defence spending, energy strategy, and resource security.

• Populist movements are accelerating as supranational institutions lose influence.

Geopolitically, the events of the first half of 2025 strongly indicate that seismic change is coming to Europe. From the diplomatic wrangling over the end of the Russia-Ukraine war to relations with the Trump administration in the US, Europe’s leaders face a number of serious and pressing dilemmas. One reason the present moment is so pivotal is that a number of major shaping factors have converged at precisely the same time, a kind of ‘great conjunction’ that signals the close of a number of historical cycles and patterns. One epoch has ended and another is about to begin.

Just what this new epoch will look like exactly will become clearer over the next few years. In the meantime, the heightened sense of volatility will bring great risk to investors even as it also presents rich opportunities. Worldwide, the globalist order is in decline,e and a new nationalist-centric order is taking its place. While this shift had been evident to careful observers for quite a long time, the events of the last year, particularly those surrounding the election of US President Donald Trump, caught many people, including governments, off-guard. They had wrongly assumed that globalism was the future.

In practice, this transformation has profound implications, not least because it heralds the emergence of a multipolar world and the disintegration of the ‘rules-based order’ which has predominated since the end of World War Two. It has also become increasingly clear that many of the supranational organisations that have for so long provided the framework through which modern governance and trade take place appear to be cracking up. This includes the UN and the WTO, as well as more regionally-focused entities like the EU and NATO.

In terms of specifics, European governments (including those within and outside the EU as well as the EU itself), face a number of major dilemmas. 

Their strategic choices will have major ramifications for the continent for many years to come.

1. The most explosive factor in domestic politics, particularly in Western Europe, is the question of mass immigration. This issue is connected to all others and ties into debates not just over economic and social questions but also the very fundamentals of identity and sovereignty. Of course, the significant rise of populist and nationalist parties across the continent is directly tied to mass immigration and could augur the end of the ‘postwar consensus’ and a dramatic shift in governing priorities.

2. Europe’s governments face dual prospects of a) a post-war settlement in Ukraine in which Russia obtains its strategic and territorial objectives, and b) a US pivot away from NATO and Europe and towards the Far East. The realisation that Europe can no longer rely on the US for military protection, whilst not increasing its own defence spending to 5% of national government budgets has sparked a marked change in defence policies across the continent. Many governments have announced intentions to increase defence spending and business within the continent’s already extensive defence sector is likely to increase. However, this plan is most likely a decade-long endeavour and can only successfully occur within the context of a healthy, functional economy. Any plan to rely on increased borrowing to foot the bill would likely come unstuck as it would only exacerbate existing economic woes.

3. Europe’s economic malaise has been universally noted. Even before the Trump administration came to power, it was clear that existing spending habits were not sustainable. A senior banker on another continent remarked to me last year that the “terrifying” levels of government debt in Europe would certainly ensure the collapse of the social model of governance. In truth, Europe’s economies have been struggling ever since the 2008 financial crisis. Within the EU, the top-heavy bureaucratic structure and mass of extensive regulations have made the prospect of imminent recovery rather remote. Germany had been the motor that kept the EU economy going, yet its own economy has fared very badly in recent years under the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war and increasingly stringent Green regulations.

4. Europe’s lack of competitiveness is notable in a number of domains. The innovation and investment dilemma has become readily apparent with French President Emmanuel Macron publicly recognising that the stifling regulatory space had prompted a vast exodus of talent and capital to fresher pastures such as the US, the UAE, and parts of the Far East. The gap in AI capability is one particularly prominent example.

5. Energy strategy is another area in which governments will have to reassess their options. The war in Ukraine revealed the extent to which governments like Germany had become dependent on Russian gas. Furthermore, the commitment to radical Net Zero targets, made in a context within which climate politics was ascendant, will have a sharp impact on industrial output. However, politically-speaking, it must be asked how much of the climate-centric Green political impetus was reflective of a globalist political framework which was in reality already in decline. Electorally, the Green Party in German enjoyed less support in 2025 than it did in 2021, losing 33 seats. Yet, the new coalition government of Chancellor Merz has made major concessions to the Greens including the promise of devoting €50bn of a new (borrowed) €500bn special fund to climate protection.

More widely, the recent electricity blackouts in Portugal, Spain and parts of France underlined the fragility of the current energy framework. On this, two immediate questions arise. Firstly, how can governments ensure that widespread power outages do not grow more frequent as energy policy has been directed towards Net Zero targets? Secondly, how can such governments expect to manage the inevitable social unrest that would ensue from repeats of such incidents at a time when tensions are already running high?

6. The power cuts in parts of Western Europe once again highlight one of the major drawbacks to hyper-globalisation—the reliance on highly complex but fragile systems. This has been witnessed on a global scale in many different areas, such as last July when a CrowdStrike software update interrupted airlines, banks, healthcare and broadcasters across the world. Then there is the Red Sea crisis, the result of Yemen-based Houthi rebel activity, and a major source of risk in an area through which 30% of the world’s container shipping normally passes. It serves as a prime example of how local flashpoints can have major global ramifications. As the world moves away from hyper-globalisation to a more regionally-based order, supply chains will likely be revised so as to mitigate the level of risk present during a period of great geopolitical instability.

7. Related to this point is the question of resources. As the ‘rules-based order’ wanes there will likely be a return to a much more ‘cut and thrust’ modus operandi as far as state power projection goes. As the grand strategist Gregory Copley noted recently, “Sovereignty is what can be defended, either directly or by alliance.” Globally, there will be a number of key strategic regions of interest, reminiscent of the various ‘Great Games’ of the nineteenth century, such as the Anglo-Russian ‘Great Game’ in Central Asia or the ‘Scramble for Africa’. Today, the completion of the International North South Transport Corridor (INSTC) has provided significant strategic advantage to Russia, which now has uninterrupted trade access to the Indian Ocean. Moreover, Central Asia is becoming a highly important region economically-speaking, not least due to the presence of Rare Earth Elements (REEs), an important factor which is also at play in Africa, as a new ‘Scramble’ effectively takes place there again too, albeit in a different guise. In addition to these, both the Arctic and Antarctic will be of keen interest to the great powers of the 21st century as well as to those with geographical proximity.

President Trump’s repeated comments vis-à-vis Greenland, currently an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark, are indicative of a number of American strategic objectives. One of these concerns the vital question of REEs, as Greenland possesses some of the world’s largest reserves, including yttrium, scandium, neodymium, and dysprosium. Continental Europe’s prospects in this field are an important point of exploration. While Europe currently does not produce any REEs, various deposits have been located across the continent, from Norway and Sweden to Greece. Interest in these areas is growing, and with it, consideration of the potential for mining, a factor which will have to be balanced with environmental concerns, presents a possible field of interest for investors over the coming decades.

These factors are, of course, only some of the wider strategic concerns with which European governments will have to grapple over this coming transformative period.

In the background to all this lies the powerful rise of populism and nationalism, which looks set to grow stronger. How present ‘status quo’ governments choose to respond to the varying strategic challenges of the day will have a major impact on the internal political landscape of respective states as well as the broader geopolitical picture. The present interim period brings with it a sped-up political cycle that sees many national governments at present quite unstable. How all the pieces on the board end up remains to be seen. In the meantime, we could be in for a period of great instability and uncertainty.

Authored by Michael Kern via OilPrice.com,

Norway announced on Monday a tender for three project areas for floating offshore wind in a highly-anticipated first competition for this type of renewable energy in the Nordic country. 

The Norwegian Energy Ministry, which said earlier this year that it would bet on floating wind instead of fixed-bottom offshore wind, is now opening competition for project areas for offshore wind in Utsira Nord outside the coast of Rogaland off Norway’s southwest coast.  

The installed capacity in each project area cannot exceed 500 megawatts (MW), according to the competition tender, in which applications for projects will be received until September 15, 2025. 

Norway will subsidize the projects, for a total of $3.4 billion (35 billion Norwegian crowns) cap for state aid at Utsira Nord. 

Winning bids will have two years to mature their projects and participate in an auction for state aid as a direct grant in 2028 or 2029. 

The model for allocating project areas and government support – developed in dialogue with the offshore industry – is adapted to floating offshore wind and will contribute to both technology development and cost reductions for subsequent projects, Energy Minister Terje Aasland said in a statement.

Earlier this year, Norway scrapped plans to hold a fixed-bottom offshore wind tender at the Sørvest F offshore area in 2025, due to high costs to connect power to the grid. 

Instead of fixed-bottom offshore wind at Sørvest F, the Norwegian government will prioritize floating wind in the tenders with radial links to the grid, the energy ministry said in February. 

Norway’s floating wind tender comes as the global offshore wind industry continues to face significant headwinds relating to supply chain, regulatory, and macroeconomic developments.  

Orsted, the world’s biggest offshore wind project developer, earlier this month warned of a continued challenging environment for the industry. 

Due to higher costs and interest rates, the company announced it had decided to discontinue the development of the Hornsea 4 offshore wind project in the UK in its current form. 

Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,

As nationalist parties surge across Europe, the Spanish Socialist-led government is doubling down on its ideological agenda — plowing over €140 million of taxpayer money into a nationwide equality plan aimed, in part, at combating what it labels “far-right” narratives among young men.

The move comes just days after significant gains for right-wing forces across the continent, including in neighboring Portugal, where the populist Chega party enjoyed electoral success to compete with the two dominant legacy parties, and in Poland, where the presidential race saw a majority of voters supporting conservative candidates.

Yet while many European electorates turn toward nationalist, traditionalist platforms, Spain’s Ministry of Equality has announced the distribution of €142.5 million to the country’s autonomous communities as part of its 2025 Co-Responsible Plan.

As reported by El Debate, the funding, which is 75 percent covered by the central government and 25 percent by regional administrations, will finance projects aimed at enforcing gender parity, redefining family life, and promoting what the government terms “co-responsible masculinities.”

Speaking after the Council of Ministers approved the latest round of funding, Equality Minister Ana Redondo explained that the Spanish government’s focus is “social transformation.”

The timing of the announcement has raised eyebrows, especially given Redondo’s remarks about the growing popularity of nationalist parties among young men. “It’s a concern of this government, in Europe, and a concern of society as a whole,” she said, describing online platforms as an environment where “hate, denialism, and anti-equality messages” are allegedly radicalizing young people against parties like hers and into the hands of populists.

Redondo warned that pornography and social media were fuelling “a misogynistic, sexist conception that devalues women,” which she claimed undermines both equality and democracy. 

“All the policies of the Ministry are also aimed at facing this new reality,” she added.

Critics accuse the government of responding to rising disillusionment with its social agenda by funneling state money into programs that stigmatize dissenting views as extremism.

Read more here…