US equity futures reverse modest losses and trade flat, just shy of a new record, after the Nasdaq set a new all time high yesterday as the ceasefire between Iran and Israel remains intact (Pentagon intelligence report said US airstrikes had only a limited impact on Iran’s nuclear program, which President Trump disputed) and as the NATO Summit continues. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures were up 0.1% ahead of Powell’s second day of Congressional testimony; Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.3% as a FOMO panic grows now that the index is back at all time highs. Pre-market Mag7/Semis are seeing a bid; with cyclicals mixed with financial higher but Industrials are dragged by FDX which is down 6% post earnings (q1 guide below cons/withheld full year guidance citing trade policy uncertainty).  Asia closed higher (Shanghai +1.04%/Hang Seng +1.23%/Nikkei +39bps) on limited catalysts outside of comments from China’s Premier Li that Beijing was turning China into a “mega-sized” consumer powerhouse, while Europe is lower (FTSE -5bps/DAX -40bps/CAC -20bps) on light volumes (-20% vs 10dma). The US dollar is stronger, while commodities are weaker with Energy seeing a relief rally/deadcat bounce. As the market moves back to trade, taxes, and earnings there are incrementally positive headlines on US/Mexico looking at a lowering effective tariffs rates around a quota system and US/China where China is looking to reduce the flow of fentanyl precursors, a potential goodwill measure. Today brings a second day of testimony from Powell in front of the Senate (should be same message that the Fed is well positioned to wait for further clarity on the economy), the 5Y bond auction, and new home sales. 

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are higher alongside index futures (Nvidia +0.8%, Tesla +0.8%, Alphabet +0.6%, Apple +0.4%, Amazon +0.3%, Microsoft +0.3%, Meta +0.2%). Here are some other notable premarket movers:

• Coinbase Global Inc. shares (COIN) are up 3.3% after Bernstein raised the target on it to $510, a Street high and 48% above Tuesday’s close.
• Duolingo Inc. shares (DUOL) are up 0.8% after Argus Research started coverage on the language-learning software company with a buy rating and $575 price target.
• FedEx shares (FDX) fall 5.7% after its first-quarter profit forecast missed analysts’ estimates and the parcel company said it wasn’t providing a profit outlook for the fiscal year due to uncertain global demand.
• Graphic Packaging (GPK) slips 1% as BNP Paribas Exane downgrades the stock amid lackluster demand in the paper and packaging sector.
• Nvidia (NVDA) rises 0.9% after its price target was lifted to a Street high of $250 from $175 at Loop Capital Markets, which says the chipmaker is positioned favorably into the next “golden wave” of Gen AI adoption.
• QXO Inc. shares (QXO) drop 6.3% as the building products distributor seeks to raise $2 billion in a share sale. The firm led by billionaire Brad Jacobs is pursuing a takeover.
• Reddit shares (RDDT) are up 3.5% in premarket trading, suggesting the social-media company would extend a recent advance.
• TMC The Metals Co. shares (TMC) jump 4.1% after Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives raised the recommendation on the company to outperform from neutral, citing US President Donald Trump’s April executive order favoring deep-sea mining.
• Yum! Brands Inc. shares (YUM) are up 1.5% after JPMorgan upgraded the operator of such chains as KFC and Taco Bell to overweight from neutral.

With the S&P 500 trading within 1% of its all-time high after a sharp rebound from April’s tariff-driven turmoil, some analysts warn that complacency is setting in. Risks remain elevated, including the potential for renewed geopolitical tensions and the looming tariff deadline set by US President Donald Trump, now just two weeks away, with little progress on trade deals.

“Going into July 9, there is no tariff fear priced into the market,” Bhanu Baweja, chief strategist at UBS Group AG, told Bloomberg TV. “Caution is what is warranted right now. We won’t be chasing the market higher.”

Following a turbulent stretch in financial markets that was sparked by a near two-week war between Israel and Iran, traders are shifting their focus back to the US economy and how trade risks and fiscal pressures could affect corporate earnings and growth. A fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran appeared to be holding on Wednesday, with both sides claiming victory in the war.

“The market is moving on to the next thing which is the tariffs deadline, and central banks,” said Lilian Chovin, head of asset allocation at Coutts. “We are in a sequence where slightly weaker growth momentum is being positively received by markets, because it’s causing renewed expectations for rate cuts.”

European stocks are little changed with gains in auto and technology shares offset by losses in media and telecommunications. The Stoxx 600 was little changed as auto shares outperformed, as data showed new-car registrations rose 1.9% last month from a year earlier. Media stocks were the biggest laggards. Here are some of the biggest movers on Wednesday:

• Stellantis rises as much as 5.4% as Jefferies upgrades the automaker to buy from hold, writing in a note that operations may be starting to take a more positive turn.
• Ambu shares rise as much as 5.5% after the US Food and Drug Administration alerted health-care providers about importing certain medical devices manufactured in Japan by a unit of Olympus.
• Babcock climbs as much as 14% after the support services company upgraded its medium-term guidance for underlying operating margin, with CEO David Lockwood saying this is “a new era for defense.”
• European-listed renewable energy stocks gained after a Republican Senator said US lawmakers were discussing changes to a provision in President Donald Trump’s broad spending bill that would abruptly end tax credits for clean energy companies.
• THG shares jump as much as 18% after the online retailer provided a trading update and reiterated its full-year guidance ahead of its annual general meeting today.
• Befesa rises as much as 12% following an upgrade to overweight from equal-weight at Morgan Stanley, which says there is growing confidence in the German recycling company’s earnings delivery.
• Worldline shares fall as much as 25%, the most since October and to the lowest on record, after Dutch media outlet NRC reports that the company has covered up fraud by customers despite warnings from the firm’s risk department.
• Swatch shares drop as much as 2.9% after JPMorgan cut the stock’s price target to a street low, reflecting Swiss watch export data, the latest industry trends and forex moves.
• Kongsberg shares drop as much as 4.2% as Pareto Securities lowers its recommendation on the Norwegian firm to sell, saying the non-defense operations’ valuation is too high.
• Universal Music falls as much as 3.4% as UBS cuts its recommendation to neutral from buy, saying the current valuation reflects strong growth potential.
• BIC drops as much as 7.5%, hitting its lowest level since April 2022, after some investors offered shares in the office supplies firm at a discount to Tuesday’s closing price.
• Deutsche Post falls as much as 2.2% after US delivery firm FedEx forecast worse-than-expected profit for the current quarter in a sign that soft parcel demand and uncertainty over global trade are unlikely to abate in the near term.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks climbed on optimism the Israel-Iran ceasefire will hold, while tech shares got a boost after the Nasdaq 100 hit a record high. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 0.6% on Wednesday, adding to the previous session’s 2.3% rally. TSMC, Alibaba and Nintendo were among the biggest boosts. Benchmarks in China, Hong Kong and Taiwan led gains in the region. Global risk sentiment is on the mend as Middle East tensions subside, though prospects for lasting peace remain unclear. The relief rally helped propel tech stocks in particular, with investors also hopeful the the US will seal trade deals with major trading partners.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rises 0.2%. The Kiwi dollar tops the G-10 FX pile rising 0.2% against the greenback. The yen led G10 losses with USD/JPY as much as 0.5% higher to 145.68; other G10 currencies traded in a narrow range

In rates, treasuries are little changed after the benchmark 10-year yield shed five basis points Tuesday, as Powell’s comments before House lawmakers and weak consumer data boosted bets on the pace of rate cuts in 2025. US 10-year is around 4.30% with German counterpart lagging by around 1bp; UK 2- and 5-year yields trade about 1.5bp richer on the day, outperforming Treasuries. Swap traders are currently pricing in a 15% probability of a quarter-point cut next month, with expectations for at least two reductions by year-end. Powell is due to appear in the Senate on Wednesday. French bonds outperform. $70 billion 5-year note auction follows good result for Tuesday’s 2-year new issue; WI 5-year yield near 3.878% is ~19bp richer than last month’s; cycle concludes Thursday with $44 billion 7-year

In commodities, brent crude futures rise almost 1% to $67.74 a barrel before reversing some of their gains, after plunging the most since 2022 in the past 48 hours, as Trump expressed support for NATO and disputed an intelligence report that found the airstrikes he ordered on Iran had only a limited impact on its nuclear program. Spot gold hovers around $3,322/oz. Bitcoin rises 0.8% toward $107,000.

Looking at today’s calendar, US economic data slate includes May new home sales at 10am. Fed speakers include Goolsbee (8am); Powell testifies before a Senate committee at 10am.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini little changed
• Nasdaq 100 mini +0.1%
• Russell 2000 mini little changed
• Stoxx Europe 600 little changed
• DAX -0.1%
• CAC 40 little changed
• 10-year Treasury yield -1 basis point at 4.29%
• VIX -0.2 points at 17.24
• Bloomberg Dollar Index +0.2% at 1203.54
• euro -0.1% at $1.1597
• WTI crude +0.9% at $64.94/barrel

Top Overnight news

• Mamdani on verge of winning New York City’s Democratic mayoral contest after Cuomo concedes: RTRS
• US President Donald Trump disputed an intelligence report that found the airstrikes he ordered on Iran had only a limited impact on its nuclear program, even though the assessment came from the Pentagon: BBG
• Trump tells Congress that Iran had nuclear weapons program, contradicting US spy agencies: RTRS
• Trump on Tuesday appeared to undermine years of US sanctions on Iran, giving its biggest customer China the green light to carry on buying its oil as he seeks to bolster a ceasefire with Israel: BBG
• With defence spending set to rise, Trump reassures NATO allies: RTRS
• Fed Chair Jerome Powell had plenty of opportunities Tuesday to tell lawmakers definitively the central bank will cut interest rates soon. He didn’t take any of them: BBG
• The European Union plans to impose retaliatory tariffs on US imports, including on Boeing Co. aircraft, if Trump puts a baseline levy on the bloc’s goods as many expect: BBG
• Trump expressed support for NATO, praising its moves to bolster defense spending as the pact’s leaders look to secure a US commitment to the alliance: BBG
• Tesla’s European sales slump for fifth month: RTRS
• Big Balls, a key member of Musk’s DOGE team, resigned from government: NYT
• Several Senate committees expect the updated reconciliation text as soon as Wednesday morning to reflect modifications based on initial parliamentarian rulings: Punchbowl
• Morgan Stanley expects the Federal Reserve to begin cutting rates in March 2026, sees a total of seven cuts in 2026, bringing the terminal rate to 2.5-2.75%
• New York Independent System Operator said it had issued an energy warning for June 24 due to a decline in operating reserves, according to Reuters. The grid was operating normally at the time, but emergency operations might be initiated to maintain system reliability.
• A US judge blocked the Trump administration from withholding funds awarded to 14 states for EV charger infrastructure, according to a court filing.

Trade/Tariffs

• Fox’s Gasparino posted that Team Trump said it was close to announcing a handful of trade deals. The major ones the White House claimed progress on involved Japan, South Korea, and Vietnam. India was not on the list of pending agreements amid the recent spat with Pakistan.
• Vietnam expects “good results” from talks with the US in less than two weeks, according to Bloomberg.
• Switzerland expects US tariffs to stay at 10% after July 9 during talks, via Bloomberg.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded stronger following the firm lead from Wall Street, with gains capped as traders were cautious amid the fragility of the Israel-Iran ceasefire. From a central bank perspective, some attention in US hours was on Fed Chair Powell, who echoed his wait-and-see stance but left July options open during the Q&A. Thereafter, sentiment in APAC trade was somewhat capped after BoJ taper-dissenter Tamura struck a hawkish tone, suggesting the BoJ may need to raise rates decisively—even amid high uncertainty—if upward price risks heighten. He also noted that he does not see 0.5% as a barrier for BoJ rate hikes. ASX 200 fluctuated between modest gains and losses before a sub-forecast Aussie Monthly CPI print provided a mild boost. The monthly gauge came in at 2.1%, towards the bottom end of the RBA’s 2–3% target range, though market pricing barely shifted. Nikkei 225 saw choppy trade in limited ranges following commentary from BoJ’s Tamura, who said he does not see 0.5% as a ceiling for rate hikes. On the trade front, FBN’s Gasparino suggested progress in US-Japan trade talks. The BoJ Summary of Opinions noted that the effects of tariff policies are likely yet to materialise. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the broader tone following a muted open as traders awaited the next catalyst. The indices saw upticks following remarks from China’s Premier Li who said judging from key indicators, China’s economy showed a steady improvement in Q2, and he is confident in China’s ability to maintain a relatively rapid growth.

Top Asian News

• China’s Premier Li said that key indicators pointed to steady improvement in Q2, and expressed confidence in maintaining a relatively rapid growth rate. He added that regardless of global developments, China’s economy had consistently shown strong growth momentum.
• Chinese Premier Li said the world economy and international economic and trade cooperation once again faces new difficulties and challenges, according to remarks at the World Economic Forum in Tianjin. He added that the risk of fragmentation in global industrial supply chains is on the rise.
• Chinese President Xi Jinping is reportedly not attending next week’s BRICS summit, marking his first-ever absence, due to a scheduling conflict, according to SCMP sources.
• PBoC injected 365.3bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate maintained at 1.40%.
• CBA now anticipates RBA to cut rate in July (prev. August), following the softer-than-expected Australian CPI data.
• BYD (002594 CH/BYDDY) has started to cut vehicle production by at least a third of capacity in some factories in China by cancelling night shifts, suspended plans to set up new production lines, according to Reuters sources.
• Japanese government will consider cutting this year’s growth forecast, according to Reuters citing sources. Japan’s government may cut its 2025 GDP growth forecast from 1.2% to below 1%, with final projections due by end-July, due to uncertainty over US tariff developments.

European bourses (STOXX 600 U/C) opened mostly and modestly firmer and have traded choppily throughout the morning. More recently, some selling pressure has been seen taking a few indices modestly into the red. European sectors hold a positive bias, and aside from the top performer, the breadth of the market is fairly narrow. Autos is the clear outperformer today, lifted by strength in Stellantis (+4.5%) after the Co. received an upgrade at Jefferies. Telecoms is found at the foot of the pile, joined closely by Food Beverage & Tobacco; though losses which are modest by nature.

Top European News

• UK is to reportedly purchase twelve F-35A fighter jets, with an announcement from the UK PM potentially on Wednesday, according to The Telegraph. Unlike the F-35B jets the UK currently possesses, the F-35A variant can carry nuclear weapons.
• Spain’s Economy Minister says when NATO’s military capabilities are reviewed, Spain could revise its own military spending.

FX

• DXY is a touch higher following Tuesday’s selling pressure which was triggered by an easing in geopolitical tensions and comments by Fed Chair Powell. On the former, ING believes that “the negative impact of the reduced geopolitical risk on the dollar has largely played out”. Today’s calendar is light in terms of data. However, investors are still mindful of the trade front after FBN’s Gasparino revealed last night that Team Trump said it was close to announcing a handful of trade deals. On the fiscal front, US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the Senate is on track for a vote on Trump’s tax bill on Friday. As we head closer to month-end, modelling from Barclays and Citi suggests modest USD selling. DXY is currently contained within Tuesday’s 97.70-98.27 range.
• After hitting a multi-year high on Tuesday at 1.1641, the rally in EUR/USD has paused for breath with the pair returning to a 1.15 handle. Fresh macro drivers for the Eurozone are on the light side following a raft of ECB speak at the start of the week, which suggested that recent geopolitically-driven gains in the energy space are not affecting the Bank’s outlook for inflation. EUR/USD has ventured as low as 1.1591 but is holding above Tuesday’s trough at 1.1574.
• JPY is seeing some give back vs. the USD following a strong session of gains, which brought the pair down from a 146.17 peak to a 144.51 trough. Overnight, we initially saw downside in USD/JPY following hawkish remarks from BoJ taper-dissenter Tamura, who reiterated that 0.5% is not a barrier for BoJ rate hike. The currency was also underpinned after FBN’s Gasparino flagged progress between the US and Japan on trade talks. However, these moves were reversed in early European trade as the USD looked to claw back some of its recent losses.
• GBP is flat/lower vs. the USD with incremental macro drivers from the UK lacking. On today’s docket, we have been awaiting comments from Lombardelli and Pill. Greene and Lombardelli (again) are due to speak later.
• Antipodeans are marginally outperforming amid the recent upside in global equities and a broader rise in commodity prices. AUD/USD saw an immediate knee-jerk lower on the sub-forecast monthly CPI metric, which ultimately did little to change the current course of the RBA; a July cut is still priced at 92%.
• Citi month-end FX modelling: moderate USD selling at the end of June. Average signal is 0.7 historical standard deviations. The signal is weaker in GBP/USD, due to Gilts and UK equity outperformance vs European markets.
• Barclays month-end FX modelling: moderate USD-selling signal by month-end against most majors, with a weak sign on EURUSD. Quarter-end rebalancing model: indicates a strong USD-selling signal against most majors, with a weak sign on EURUSD and a moderate sign on USDJPY. Overall, the signal shows moderate dollar-selling at the end of June
• PBoC sets USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1668 vs exp. 7.1709 (prev. 7.1656)

Fixed Income

• JGBs were initially bid, catching up to some of the gains seen in peers on Tuesday. However, the move was capped by BoJ remarks and the SOO.
• USTs are essentially flat, but still remain at elevated levels following Fed Chair Powell’s commentary in the prior session, where he said “many paths are possible” when questioned on a July cut. Do note that the Fed Chair is due to speak later today also. Elsewhere, data docket is fairly light so focus will be on the 5yr auction, which follows a robust 2yr outing on Tuesday. USTs are currently just off the upper-end of a 111-17+ to 111-23+ band and 1+ ticks above Tuesday’s best.
• A firmer start to the day. Bunds were the upper-end of a 130.61 to 131.12 band, after being relatively contained in APAC trade around that low, a bid emerged in the European morning as the region’s risk tone deteriorated. Thereafter, Bunds were pressured for the remainder of the morning, with downside exacerbated by the poor Gilt auction; currently trade towards session lows at 130.65;
• OATs outperforming Bunds a touch with focus on French politics. The Socialist Party (PS) on Tuesday announced that the government’s “unfulfilled commitments on pensions” and other issues mean that they will have to file a motion of censure against PM Bayrou’s government. While the motion will be put forward by the left, those on the right and particularly National Rally (RN) have cautioned that they could oppose Bayrou given points of disagreement on other issues; together, PS, RN and their allies could bring Bayrou’s government down.
• Gilts are trading in-line with USTs at first. Spent the morning at the upper-end of a 93.33-57 band. Specifics for the UK are very light, no commentary from BoE’s Lombardelli or Pill while supply was robust on the main metrics but saw a particularly chunky 10bps price tail. Results that pushed Gilts back to the above trough and into the red.
• UK sells GBP 3.25bln 4.375% 2040 Gilt: b/c 2.88x (prev. 2.58x), tail 1.0bps (prev. 0.9bps), average yield 4.850% (prev. 4.917%).
• Italy sells EUR 3.0bln vs exp. EUR 2.5-3.0bln 2.10% 2027 BTP & EUR vs exp. EUR 2.5-3.0bln 1.10% 2031 BTPei.

Commodities

• Crude futures are firmer today, calmly attempting to pare back some of the recent losses, with overnight newsflow relatively light aside from private inventory data, which printed a larger-than-expected draw. WTI and Brent are trading on USD 65/bbl and 66/bbl handles respectively, back above their 50DMAs.
• Spot gold is cautiously attempting to rebound from recent losses sparked by the improved geopolitical backdrop. The haven traded above the USD 3,300/oz mark for the entirety of the APAC session, and now approaches session highs, after support around the USD 3,326/oz mark.
• Copper futures trade with modest gains, 3M LME contracts trading on either side of USD 9,700/t mark.
• Israel’s NewMed says Leviathan field is to resume activity.
• Private Inventories: Crude -4.28mln (exp. -0.8mln), Distillate -1.03mln (exp. +0.4mln), Gasoline +0.75mln (exp. +0.4mln), Cushing -0.08mln.

Central Banks

• Fed’s Schmid (2025 voter) said the central bank has time to study the effects of tariffs on inflation before making any rate decisions. He noted that both employment and inflation are near the Fed’s goals. Contacts indicated that tariffs would raise prices and weigh on economic activity. He added that the economy’s resilience meant the Fed could afford to wait and observe developments before proceeding with rate cuts.
• BoJ June meeting Summary of Opinions stated that, while much of the hard data for April and May had been relatively solid, it was likely that the effects of tariff policies had yet to materialise. Although uncertainty regarding trade policies remained extremely high, on the domestic front, wage developments had been solid and the CPI had been slightly higher than expected. Japan’s economy was at a crossroads between making a transition to a “growth-oriented economy driven by wage increases and investment” and falling into stagflation. Although the direct impact of US tariff policy has not been observed so far, Japan’s economy has been somewhat stagnant. Despite the impact of US tariff policy, many firms would likely continue to raise wages to address labour shortages and make high levels of business fixed investment. While the impact of the US tariff policy would certainly exert downward pressure on firms’ sentiment, the Bank needed to take some time to examine the magnitude of the impact on the real economy. Given high uncertainty, the Bank should at this point maintain accommodative financial conditions with the current interest rate level and thereby firmly support the economy. Even though prices had been somewhat higher than expected, it was appropriate for the Bank to maintain current policy given downside risks stemming from US tariff policy and the situation in the Middle East. Although the CPI had been higher than expected, the pass-through of higher wages to services prices seemed to have plateaued. The situation of government bond markets around the world had been a major topic of discussion, such as at international meetings, and attention was warranted on the possibility that developments overseas would spread to Japan. Increased volatility in the super-long-term zone might spill over to the entire yield curve, thereby spreading unintended tightening effects to the market as a whole.
• BoJ board member Tamura said that if upward price risks heightened, the BoJ could face a situation where it would need to raise rates decisively, even if uncertainty remained high, adding that he does not see 0.5% as a barrier for BoJ rate hikes. He stressed the need to steadily normalise the balance sheet, even though it may take time, and noted he had voted against the June decision to slow the pace of bond-buying taper next year, arguing the BoJ should normalise bond holdings as soon as possible. Tamura stated that while the JGB market function had improved somewhat, it still remained low. He reiterated his stance that rate hikes must be timely and appropriate, neither too quick nor too late. On the economy, he assessed that inflation was on track or somewhat stronger than expected, with upward risks having been elevated until March. He flagged that market-based services inflation was exceeding 2%, and both rent and public service costs were rising gradually. He noted the rise in fresh food prices could no longer be described as temporary and must be monitored carefully. Medium- and long-term inflation expectations were gradually heightening, with household and corporate expectations already around 2%. He warned of the risk that Japan’s inflation expectations could overshoot further. Tamura also said US tariffs would likely weigh on Japan’s economy and prices, but projected inflation would remain near 2% until fiscal 2027. Despite some downside risks, he assessed that the probability of Japan reverting to a low wage/price growth environment was low. Consumer inflation data for April and May had overshot expectations, and wage momentum in Japan was sufficiently strengthening.

Geopolitics 

• US Secretary of State Rubio says US President Trump will buck Europe’s pleas to ratchet up sanctions on Russia, adding that the US still wants room to negotiate a peace deal, according to Politico.
• US President Trump says NATO will be very strong, when asked about article 5, says “we are with them all of the way”. Thinks the Iran-Israel ceasefire is good. Last thing Iran want to do is enrich (uranium), they want to recover. Thinks US will have a relationship with Iran. Asked if the US would strike Iran again if the nuclear programme is rebuilt, says “sure” Progress is being made on Gaza.
• “Al-Akhbar reported this morning from its sources that Houthi attacks in Yemen against Israel are expected to intensify and escalate in the coming days in response to the Israeli escalation in Gaza”, via Kan’s Kais on X.
• Iranian Parliament approves bill to suspend cooperation with UN nuclear watchdog, according to Nournews
• “There have been no [US] sanctions lifted on Iran,” said Fox Business’ Lawrence, in reference to President Trump’s post suggesting China could continue to buy oil from Iran. A senior White House official added: “The President was simply calling attention to the fact that because of his decisive actions to obliterate Iran’s nuclear facilities and broker a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, the Strait of Hormuz will not be impacted, which would have been devastating for China. The President continues to call on China and all countries to import our state-of-the-art oil rather than import Iranian oil in violation of US sanctions.”
• Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi said the nuclear programme continues, according to Al Arabiya.
• White House Middle East envoy Witkoff said the US and Israel had achieved their goals in Iran, according to Fox News. He described talks with Iran as encouraging and stated it was time to sit with Iran and make a comprehensive deal.
• Iran’s Revolutionary Guards denied there was any drone attack in the northwestern city of Tabriz following reports air defences were activated in the area, according to Iranian news sites.
• Israel’s representative to the UN Security Council stated that Iran had been involved in producing a nuclear bomb, according to Sky News Arabia.
• Israel’s representative to the United Nations said that diplomatic talks with Iran will take place soon, according to Al Arabiya.
• US is set to open its embassy in Jerusalem on June 25th, following the ceasefire between Israel and Iran and the lifting of all restrictions by Israel’s Home Front Command, according to a statement.
• Iran executed three men for allegedly working for Israel’s spy agency Mossad, according to the Mizan News Agency.

US Event Calendar

• 7:00 am: Jun 20 MBA Mortgage Applications 1.1%, prior -2.6%
• 10:00 am: May New Home Sales, est. 693k, prior 743k
• 10:00 am: May New Home Sales MoM, est. -6.73%, prior 10.9%

Central Banks 

• 8:00 am: Fed’s Goolsbee Appears on Podcast
• 10:00 am: Fed’s Powell Testifies Before Senate Committee

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

When we first published the report in 2012, US cities were a bit of a bargain relative to their developed market peers. But fast forward a decade or so and the US is now jostling with Geneva and Zurich at the top of many of the charts. Admittedly a strong dollar helped – but the story runs deeper: it’s a tale of US exceptionalism, Wall Street strength, and a tech sector that’s gone global but remains American-led. However given our bearish structural dollar view, we think US cities would slip down these lists in the years ahead.

The report covers lots of measures, including who has the best quality of life, where are salaries soaring, how much an apartment will cost, and where’s the cheapest place to go on a “cheap date” with your partner. It’s got a bulleted summary section followed by further commentary, and includes the full tables across all 69 cities. The financial market city with the best quality of life is 90 places ahead of its FIFA world football ranking. Can you guess who it is? Please delve into the report at your leisure for this and much much more.

When it comes to the last 24 hours, near-term inflation fears have rapidly diminished as the ceasefire in the Middle East led to further oil price declines. Indeed, Brent crude was down another -6.07% yesterday to $67.14/bbl, meaning that the two-day decline over Monday and Tuesday is the biggest since March 2022, at -12.82%. It’s also their lowest level since June 10, so just before fears of Israeli strikes against Iran began to surface. This fading geopolitical premium also led to a huge risk-on move across multiple asset classes, with the S&P 500 (+1.11%) seeing its best day in four weeks and closing less than 1% beneath its record high from mid-February. This morning in Asia, US equity futures are flat and oil prices (+1.36%) have edged back up, trading at $68.06/bbl.

The decline in oil yesterday got some extra momentum from Trump’s post that “China can now continue to purchase oil from Iran”, suggesting that the US might reduce enforcement of sanctions against Iranian oil. Although it’s fair to say that the statement seems to catch the Treasury and State Departments by surprise. Meanwhile, the truce between Israel and Iran appears to be holding after Trump earlier blamed both sides for initial breaches. Israel’s Prime Minster Netanyahu confirmed that he agreed to the truce with Iran, claiming a “historic victory”. The UN nuclear watchdog has urged a rapid restart of inspections of Iran’s nuclear facilities, with The New York Times and CNN reporting that a preliminary assessment by US intelligence was that the recent strikes likely did not fully cripple Iran’s underground facilities and may delay its nuclear programme by less than six months. White House spokeperson Leavitt called the reporting “flat-out wrong” though.

Turning back to yesterday’s market moves, the key reason the market rallied so much was because lower oil prices (and hence lower inflation) are keeping the prospect of rate cuts in play this year. Indeed, futures priced in more rate cuts from the Fed in response, with the amount expected by the December meeting up +4.3bps on the day to 59bps. That’s the most rate cuts priced in six weeks, just before the US-China tariffs were slashed by 115 percentage points, which reassured markets that there wouldn’t be a downturn. This time around, lower inflation rather than growth fears have been the main driver of the repricing, and US Treasuries rallied strongly across the curve as a result. For instance, both the 2yr and 10yr yield hit their lowest level since early May, with the 2yr yield (-3.8bps) down to 3.83%, whilst the 10yr yield (-5.3bps) fell to 4.30%. That said, the decline in yields also gained considerable momentum from the Conference Board’s consumer confidence indicator, which unexpectedly fell to 93.0 in June (vs. 99.8 expected) with the share of responders who said that jobs were plentiful falling to their lowest level since the pandemic.

But even as markets were pricing in a growing chance of a rate cut this year, there was little sign of any rush from Fed Chair Powell in his latest testimony. He reiterated his message from last week’s press conference that they were “well positioned to wait to learn more about the likely course of the economy before considering any adjustments to our policy stance.” Looking forward, he also said that the tariff inflation would be evident in the June and July numbers, so that implicitly leant in favour of waiting until September before any further rate cuts. Meanwhile, Cleveland Fed President Hammack also said that it “may well be the case that policy remains on hold for quite some time”. She also said that “I would rather be slow and move in the right direction than move quickly in the wrong one.” Just after the European close NY Fed Williams’ comments were similar to Powell’s with him saying that it was “entirely appropriate” to maintain the current policy stance and that it was still “early days” in terms of the impact of tariffs on inflation. Fed Governor Barr also struck a “wait and see” tone, noting the potential for “some inflation persistence” due to second-round effects.

Nevertheless, those more hawkish comments failed to halt the rally, as the market view was that the deflationary impulse from lower oil prices would bring about quicker rate cuts. So that provided a significant boost to equities on both sides of the Atlantic. The S&P 500 was up +1.11%, and tech stocks led the way as the NASDAQ advanced by a bigger +1.43% while the narrower NASDAQ 100 (+1.53%) reached a new record high. Meanwhile in Europe, the STOXX 600 (+1.11%) posted its biggest gain in six weeks, alongside fresh moves higher for the DAX (+1.60%) and the CAC 40 (+1.04%).
Staying in Europe, the German government yesterday agreed on a budget draft for 2025 as well as on benchmark budget figures for 2026-2029. According to our economists’ piece here, the fiscal package sends a strong signal: the government intends to lose no time in ramping up public investment in Germany’s defence and infrastructure.

While the medium-term fiscal plan is largely in line with their assumptions, the budget draft for 2025 implies greater front-loading of the fiscal stimulus than we expected. The government plans to spend more than EUR 200bn on defence and infrastructure this year, and to raise more than 3% of GDP in fresh debt to fund this investment spree. This implies a sharp fiscal easing in the second half of the year. Although it may be difficult to spend these funds in their entirety by the end of the year, the ambitiousness of the fiscal expansion should spur the recovery in private investment. There is near-term upside risk to growth from this. On this theme, yesterday’s Germany Ifo business climate indicator moved up to a one-year high of 88.4 in June (vs. 88.0 expected). Together with the stronger German PMIs on Monday, this adds to the sense of the new government’s policy shift translating into stronger business confidence.

While the German fiscal announcement had been substantially flagged in recent reporting, it still drove 10 yr German bund yields +3.7bps higher on the day, with the Italy-Germany spread (-5.5bps) seeing its biggest tightening in ten weeks. French OAT yields (+2.0bps on 10yr) also moved slightly higher amid news that its government is expected to face a no confidence vote in the next couple of days following a collapse of talks on pension reform.

With everything else going on, the US tax bill currently in the Senate has received less attention recently. However, President Trump reiterated his call yesterday for a quick passage, with the administration still trying to get it done by their July 4 deadline. In a post on Truth Social, Trump called on Senators to “lock yourself in a room if you must, don’t go home, and GET THE DEAL DONE THIS WEEK.” It’s already passed the House by a single vote, but both chambers have to pass the same version of the bill, so the revised version by the Senate would need to go back to the House for a vote. In terms of the latest timeline, Treasury Secretary Bessent suggested that House and Senate Republicans could reach agreement on the state and local tax deduction in the next two days, while Senate Majority leader Thune said he expects the Senate to start voting on the bill on Friday, setting up a potential weekend of votes. Beyond that, NEC director Kevin Hassett said that after the bill was passed, they’d be announcing trade deals with other countries, which comes with just two weeks now remaining until the July 9 deadline for the 90-day reciprocal tariff extension. Hassett said that “we’re very close to a few countries and are waiting to announce after we get the Big Beautiful Bill closed”.

In Asia calm seems to have broken out with the Hang Seng (+0.79%) the top performer so far this morning, with the CSI (+0.34%), the Shanghai Composite (+0.26%), and the Nikkei (+0.18%) also higher. The KOSPI (-0.10%) is slightly lower.
Early morning data revealed that Australia’s headline consumer price index inflation (+2.1% y/y) cooled more than anticipated in May (compared to +2.3% expected), marking its slowest pace in seven months. It decreased from the +2.4% recorded in April. Underlying inflation, as indicated by the annual trimmed mean CPI, increased by +2.4% y/y in May, down from +2.8% in April. This print indicated that underlying inflation is at its lowest level since November 2021, likely providing the RBA with more flexibility to further reduce interest rates. Consequently, our economists now expect the RBA to reduce rates by 25bps at its upcoming meeting on 8 July. Initially, we anticipated no changes in July, with a 25bp cut expected at the August meeting. We continue to foresee an additional 25bp cut in August, followed by another 25bp reduction in November. Thus, the only modification to our RBA outlook for this year is the inclusion of an additional cut in July. For further insights, please read our economists’ perspective on RBA policy.

In Japan, a summary of opinions from the BOJ’s latest policy meeting suggested that some policymakers supported maintaining steady rates amid uncertainty regarding the effects of US tariffs on Japan’s economy. Some board members observed stronger-than-expected inflation, with one member proposing that the central bank may need to raise rates decisively despite the prevailing economic uncertainty.

To the day ahead now, and we’ll hear from Fed Chair Powell again at the Senate Banking Committee, as well as BoE Deputy Governor Lombardelli. Data releases include US new home sales for May, and France’s consumer confidence for June. Finally, it’s the second and final day of the NATO summit, with Trump joining for meetings with European leaders.

Submitted by QTR’s Fringe Finance

I think it was Mark Twain who said “every massive communist nightmare of a problem with a chance to destroy the most iconic city in American history is an opportunity in disguise”. Maybe it was Milton Friedman. Or Kim Kardashian.

I can’t remember.

But the point is that Zohran Mamdani’s win in the New York City Mayoral Democratic primary tonight could actually turn out to be a national moment of truth for the Democratic Party.

After a bruising 2024 presidential defeat, one in which Democrats were widely criticized for alienating moderates and independents with a platform that veered too far left, the party now finds itself at a crossroads. Again.

Among many, well-known (former) Democrats like Ana Kasparian, Bill Ackman, Joy Reid, Elon Musk and former Rep. Jared Golden have distanced themselves—if not removed themselves—from the party altogether. More will soon follow.

This New York City mayoral election is no longer a local issue—it’s a symbolic referendum on whether Democrats have learned anything from their recent loss, or if they’re content to continue losing the middle in pursuit of ideological purity.

2024 should have been winnable for Democrats. The Republican Party fielded a polarizing candidate, the economy was relatively stable, and yet voters across the country turned away because they feared what the Democrats were becoming.

Centrist voters who once leaned blue looked at the messaging, the priorities, the excesses and the socialism, activism and radical policy stances and simply said “enough”.

In the nation’s most important city, Democrats are voting for a platform that feels like it was written during a fireside drum circle in the quad of Evergreen University.

Free housing. Free transit. Free groceries—courtesy of government-run stores. A policing strategy that replaces cops with counselors and bureaucrats with badges. Tax hikes that seem designed not to generate revenue, but to punish — and will assuredly lead to a massive capital outflow from New York. It’s not policy, it’s bullshit performance art that has no chance of being effective in one of the world’s most important geographic locations. And it is everything that turned off centrist Democrat voters in 2024.

So here’s the opportunity: Democrats can make a statement—not just to New York, but to the country—that they are still the party of rational governance and common sense — and that they can self-correct. That they are capable of breaking with their worst parts when it matters.

And it matters now.

This means one thing for the Democratic party: backing a centrist, independent candidate in November who can beat Mamdani in the general. Not a protest candidate. Not a placeholder. A real, serious contender who speaks to the exhausted majority that is desperate for competence over chaos.

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Yes, it would mean bypassing your own party’s nominee. Yes, it would mean a messy, unscripted break with tradition. But it would also be a powerful signal to the rest of the country: we heard you. We understand that winning elections in a diverse, divided nation means appealing to a broad coalition. Not just activists and donors, but homeowners, working-class voters, small business owners, families, and independents.

Democrats have a chance—right now—to show they’ve learned from their mistakes. That they’re not doubling down on the same playbook that cost them the White House, House seats, and voter trust.

Let’s be clear: the only viable path forward is an independent candidacy with full-throated support from party leaders, major donors, national figures, and the rank-and-file who quietly know this has gone too far.

And the media must stop treating this like some heartwarming tale of a plucky outsider shaking up the system. This isn’t a feel-good story. It’s the slow-motion capture of a governing disaster in the making. If Democrats let it happen unchallenged, they’ll be complicit—not just in Mamdani’s mayoralty, but in further defining the national brand as unserious, unanchored, and unelectable.

Because if Mamdani wins, it won’t just be a local experiment gone wrong. It’ll be seen as confirmation that the Democratic Party is unable—or unwilling—to police its own excesses.

And that message won’t stop at the Hudson. It’ll ripple across every swing district, every suburban race, every national conversation where voters are quietly asking: who is looking out for the middle anymore?

This is Democrats’ chance to answer. And I can’t believe I’m saying this, but I hope they don’t waste it.

—

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QTR’s Disclaimer: Please read my full legal disclaimer on my About page here. This post represents my opinions only. In addition, please understand I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. Contributor posts and aggregated posts have been hand selected by me, have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors. They are either submitted to QTR by their author, reprinted under a Creative Commons license with my best effort to uphold what the license asks, or with the permission of the author.

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I may or may not own names I write about and are watching. Sometimes I’m bullish without owning things, sometimes I’m bearish and do own things. Just assume my positions could be exactly the opposite of what you think they are just in case. If I’m long I could quickly be short and vice versa. I won’t update my positions. All positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice and at any point I can be long, short or neutral on any position. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. I edit after my posts are published because I’m impatient and lazy, so if you see a typo, check back in a half hour. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important.

There are vast communities across America that most of you might not be aware of – full of people living free, satisfying lives – and often using their little slice of happiness to help those in need. Yet it seems no good deed goes unpunished, thanks to mentally ill degenerates who take pleasure in stalking, harassing, and otherwise tearing people down. These basement-dwelling assholes love attacking tradwives and homesteaders (who are apparently white supremacists). They can’t stand rugged individualism and self-sufficiency, or nuclear families, or people who are thriving while carving their own path. What’s more, these haters form ‘snark‘ groups on Reddit and other platforms with the sole purpose of character assassination. And now, they’ve driven someone to suicide. 

You may recall the case of Peanut the squirrel – an internet sensation who was rescued in 2017 by Mark Longo – only to be seized from Mark’s home in late 2024 by the state of New York and euthanized after an anonymous complaint was lodged against the P’nuts Freedom Farm. Who would do that?

And of course, deranged leftists on Reddit (archived) defended the raid – suggesting it was justified because the Freedom Farm wasn’t properly licensed. 

Now we have the tragic case of YouTuber Mikayla Raines, who committed suicide several days ago at the age of 29 in what her husband says is the result of an online harassment campaign. 

Raines founded the Save A Fox rescue in 2017 in Lakeville, Minnesota – eventually finding herself on the wrong side of local regulations after she ended up rescuing more foxes (7) than the city allowed (3). After she lost that permit, she received $60,000 in donations and opened a bigger operation near Faribault in Rice County. 

“From a young age, she dedicated every waking hour of her life to helping [animals], whether it was helping a snapping turtle cross the road, we’re saving 500 foxes from a terrible fur farm. She was never in it for fame, money or personal gain,” said her husband, Ethan Raines in a video posted to social media. 

Absolute Scum

According to Ethan, while Mikayla did struggle with autism and depression, she became the focus of an “online bullying campaign,” which included other people in the animal sanctuary community.

Coming in hot with receipts is researcher and journalist Nick Monroe (remember Nick? He’s a good guy and worth a follow.). Lo and behold, Ethan wasn’t kidding – as Monroe found several individuals who seemed to take great pleasure in compiling ‘dossiers’ of unverified claims against Mikayla, which they spread throughout online communities such as Reddit’s now-defunct /SaveAfoxSnark…

Apparently it was this person. If you read the replies you’ll find more information. https://t.co/ekCBXKTOUF pic.twitter.com/mCX2RGEqTp

— Nick Monroe (@lobsterlooker) June 24, 2025

Apparently this person is a ‘degenerate furry.’

KazeoLion is a degenerate furry https://t.co/emZNWOcN6H pic.twitter.com/azGsnQ6jlV

— Nick Monroe (@lobsterlooker) June 24, 2025

yeah I saw that the graphic description of her death is so many sociopath alarm bells like they’re imagining it and ugh

— Jennifer D’aww (@GMShivers) June 24, 2025

Monroe found a second person ‘dedicated to harassing Mikayla.’

https://t.co/pKgV4R6Teq stalked the shit out of Mikayla Raines online life. pic.twitter.com/AWXPTpRXCC

— Nick Monroe (@lobsterlooker) June 24, 2025

It goes much, much deeper – so click here to continue that thread – including the fact that Mikayla’s work was widely supported. 

What makes these people tick? We imagine lack of a father and general failure to launch are factors, but who really knows?

This is true of pretty much all the “snark” subreddits – the entire object of them is to pick a target then go all in harassing them. This thread breaks it down better than I can. https://t.co/GL4tAFAuP1

— TheAlabastard🏒🏋🏼‍♀️🐈🤟🏻 (@ThatAlabastard) June 24, 2025

Needless to say, the basement-dwellers on Reddit are reportedly deleting evidence in the wake of Mikayla’s suicide. 

It’s telling they use their energy on someone trying to help a problem, and not the fur farms themselves.

Most of the time these things are started by competitors, or people who want that platform. pic.twitter.com/kqk8iqhh0r

— Jennifer D’aww (@GMShivers) June 24, 2025

Authored by Peter Reagan,

Real estate and construction are considered bellwethers of the overall economy. Recently they’re not looking good – and this isn’t an isolated issue. It’s a warning sign of a crisis that could ripple through the entire economy…

The housing market is a massive portion (about 1/6th!) of the entire U.S. economy. About two-thirds of American families own their home – and for most, it’s their single biggest financial asset (as well as where they sleep). Home equity represents a tremendous share of household net worth – about half for the typical family! More of our national wealth is tied up in housing than any other single asset class.

So any unusual or unexpected developments in the real estate market get attention. Because they’re extremely important for the majority of Americans – far more important than abstractions like GDP or unemployment.

That makes recent updates on the state of the housing market concerning…

Housing affordability is near record lows

I don’t want to be the bearer of bad news, but it’s important that you know the truth of the situation. Today, the typical American family cannot afford a typical home. From an article at MoneyTalkNews:

As housing prices continue to climb, a startling 70% of U.S. households now find themselves unable to afford a home at the median price point of approximately $400,000, according to the National Association of Realtors.

That’s over two-thirds of U.S. households that can’t afford homes smack in the middle of the price range. We aren’t talking about McMansions here, we’re talking about what we used to call “starter homes,” much less expensive properties.

To give you a more solid grasp on those numbers:

About 94 million households simply can’t afford to purchase a median-priced home.

In fact, to afford “median-priced” homes in the U.S., the household income needs to be at least $110,000 per year. To afford a home that is less than half of the median price requires a household income of about $61,000.

Many Americans simply aren’t making that kind of money, not even on a household basis. Worse still, it takes significantly longer for a family to save up enough for a downpayment.

For comparison purposes:

• 1970-1985: The typical family could save 10% of their income for five years and accumulate a 20% downpayment

• 2023: The typical family saving 10% of their income will need eight years to collect a 20% downpayment

Note that those numbers are incredibly variable based on location (isn’t everything in real estate?) The average family cursed to live in New York City will need 19 years to save up a downpayment, where some Midwestern cities like Tulsa are much more affordable (4-5 years).

Affordability is a major challenge right now. It’s a stark reminder of how many people are struggling financially. Especially after several years of brutal inflation – and, of course, inflation’s impact on home prices.

And what happens when prices rise faster than our ability to pay? Supply starts to build up…

Homebuilders and realtors are facing recession

We know that is the case by just looking at the numbers.

• In May, builders broke ground on new homes at the slowest pace in five years

• Building permits issuance also hit a five-year low

• In June, sentiment among homebuilders dropped to the lowest level since the pandemic lockdowns!

Mike Shedlock has the statistics about how the decreased numbers of new homes that builders are starting:

• Total: -19.6% from September 2022

• Multifamily: -25.8% from August 2023

• Single Family: -24.9% from June 2022

To put that into perspective, nearly one in five homes that were being built… aren’t. Not anymore.

When families can’t afford to buy a home anymore, supply backs up. Prices fall. Profitability for the major homebuilding firms becomes a real concern.

Why did prices surge? I mentioned the pandemic-era inflation earlier – that’s a major factor. But far from the only factor:

• 7% mortgage rates are less affordable than the pre-pandemic 3% rates

• Low consumer sentiment means families are less likely to spend their money

• The global dedollarization drive means foreign investors are less likely to lend to American mortgage companies

• Tariffs could add as much as 9.3% to today’s too-high home prices

• Anecdotally, fear of ICE raids have led to deserted construction sites (according to reports, some 20-50% of the construction workforce are illegal immigrants)

According to Brown, other factors impacting the housing market are “new Trump-era factors, including tariffs and deportations, that are holding back construction and limiting supply.”

To be fair, we can’t reasonably put the blame for the whole situation at Trump’s feet, but it’s pretty clear that we’re in the transition period that Trump talked about from failing economic policies of previous administrations to the economic upturn Trump promised us.

As he also promised, the transition is far from a smooth and painless one.

Homes, wages and purchasing power

Inflation alone (that is, destruction of the dollar’s purchasing power) wouldn’t be as severe an issue if household incomes kept up. Unfortunately, they haven’t – here are the less-than-encouraging details:

For decades, home price appreciation has been outstripping earnings growth. In the last 25 years, home values have more than tripled. The steepest climb came between 2020 and 2022, when pandemic moves and ultra-low mortgage rates spurred a buying frenzy across the country.

Meanwhile, median incomes from 2000 to 2023 did not quite double.

That’s why we’re seeing such an affordability gap.

Now, I’m the first to blame the Federal Reserve’s inflationary policies for economic issues like this. Unfortunately, the Fed’s current efforts to tame the inflation they created is hampering home sales, too!

In recent years, the housing market has been stalled by what’s known as the rate “lock-in effect.” Anyone lucky enough to have a sub-4% mortgage rate at a time when prevailing mortgage rates are closer to 7% is reluctant to give up that cheap rate in a move. That effect has kept for-sale inventory depressed.

It’s no wonder that home builders aren’t optimistic about the current home buying market. Between too-high prices and above-zero interest rates, homebuyers are caught between a rock and a hard place.

This is bigger than just the homebuilding sector, though. A depressed housing market is an early warning sign of a struggling economy. I’m not just speculating here, either. Remember the Great Financial Crisis of 2007-09?

More recent memory offers the Great Recession, a severe economic downturn that began with the collapse of the housing market in the United States. While not as prolonged or severe as the Great Depression, it still caused significant economic hardship, with unemployment rates reaching nearly 10%.

We watch the housing market for exactly this reason. It’s our canary in the coalmine of the American economy.

What we can do when the canary stops singing

Sure, it’s easy to fall into doom and gloom thinking when you see numbers like this. Some of my friends think I’m obsessed with bad news… But I’m really not. I do my best to point out the important economic stories you might not see on mainstream media, and to show you how and why these stories matter.

I encourage you to remember one thing: While we cannot make major changes to our nation’s economy, we can take control of our own personal economies.

Successful people have talked about this idea for years! Focus your attention on what you can change rather than worrying about what you can’t.

An imminent housing-led slide into recession may or may not be in the cards for us. If your savings are well diversified (especially if you’re a homeowner!), your overall financial stability can endure regardless of the booms and busts of the broad economy. One of the best choices for that kind of diversification, in my opinion, is physical precious metals. Like real estate, gold and silver are one of the few financial assets you can own outright!

*  *  *

As central banks continue unprecedented money creation, protecting your purchasing power becomes critical for retirement security. Physical gold IRAs offer a tax-advantaged solution, allowing you to hold tangible precious metals with intrinsic value independent of currency fluctuations. To learn more about how physical gold could help protect your retirement portfolio, click here to get your FREE info kit on Gold IRAs from Birch Gold Group.

New York’s power grid stabilized late Tuesday after the grid operator issued a rare energy warning earlier in the day, as residential and commercial customers cranked up their air conditioning, driving power demand higher amid temperatures nearing 100°F across parts of the state. The warning came amid widespread grid instability across the eastern half of the U.S…

• “Maximum Generation Alert” Issued for Nation’s Largest Power Grid

• Power Blackout Hits Parts Of Queens, NYC: Con Edison Urges Energy Conservation As Temps Spike

• DoE Declares U.S. Southeast Grid Emergency To Avert “Blackouts”

• “You’re Welcome”: Pennsylvania Boasts About Saving ‘Green’ Maryland From Near Power Grid Collapse

On Tuesday, New York’s Central Park hit 99°F, nearing its all-time June high of 101°F. The extreme heat sent demand on the already fragile grid soaring, pushing power prices to over $7,300/MWh on Long Island and nearly $3,000/MWh in New York City.

The New York Independent System Operator, which manages the state’s power grid, stabilized the grid by late Tuesday after issuing a rare energy alert earlier in the day, warning of potential rotating outages. 

An Energy Warning for June 24 has been issued due to a decline in operating reserves. The grid is operating normally at this time but emergency operations may be initiated to maintain system reliability. Visit https://t.co/UL7zM41k5P for additional information. pic.twitter.com/kplRsvqxtG

— New York ISO (@NewYorkISO) June 24, 2025

To the north, New England’s grid entered a Level 1 emergency late evening after unexpected generation losses that “left the region short of the resources needed to meet both consumer demand and required operating reserves,” according to the local grid operator. 

PJM Interconnection, the operator of the largest U.S. power grid serving 65 million people across 13 states and D.C., extended its energy emergency alert into Wednesday. 

NY Gov. Kathy Hochul released a statement urging New Yorkers to conserve electricity during peak demand hours due to extreme heat:

“Since the beginning of this week’s extreme heat, we’ve been carefully monitoring our electrical grid to protect New Yorkers. Earlier this evening the New York Independent System Operator warned that we are approaching peak capacity in the downstate region and it is critical to conserve electricity between now and 10 p.m. That means setting window air conditioning units to 76 degrees and avoiding unnecessary appliance use.

“At the same time, it’s critical to stay safe in this dangerous heat: find a cooling center near you, especially if you’re a senior citizen or have health concerns. Working together, we can easily get through this critical period.” 

So much for the green policies that prematurely retired reliable fossil fuel power for unreliable climate tech; the result is clear: Power grids across the eastern half of the U.S. are stretched thin.

It’s time to bring back common-sense energy policy—restoring stable generation to bridge the gap until nuclear capacity meaningfully ramps up in the early 2030s. It’s also time to hold the woke climate politicians accountable for their massive mismanagement of the nation’s grid.

Authored by Charles Kennedy via OilPrice.com,

Nigeria’s Economic and Financial Crimes Commission has arrested two ex-oil officials, including the former chief financial officer of Nigeria’s state energy firm NNPC, over an alleged $7.2-billion fraud, corruption, and abuse of office.

The financial crimes authorities have arrested Umar Ajiya Isa, a former CFO at NNPC, as well as Jimoh Olasunkanmi, a former managing director of the Warri refinery in Nigeria. Three other officials are being investigated, according to a statement from the commission carried by Bloomberg.

The two former executives are under investigation for alleged corruption, embezzlement, abuse of office, and kickbacks from contractors.

Isa was arrested over alleged fraud for the revamp and rehabilitation of Nigeria’s old oil refineries, Kaduna, Warri, and Port Harcourt, Nigerian outlet Premium Times reports.

Despite annual allocations of funds for the refineries’ rehabilitation, they haven’t been producing fuel in recent years.

The latest arrests and investigations come as Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu and his administration are working to eradicate corruption in the oil industry and boost the country’s oil production.

The top African oil-producing country has consistently failed to pump to its OPEC+ quota due to oil theft, vandalism, and struggles to launch new projects.

Nigerian authorities have been clamping down on oil theft and have been supportive of an increase in oil and gas output in recent months.

Nigeria’s government last month urged the oil companies operating in the country to collaborate to increase oil output in the producer that hasn’t been able to pump to its OPEC quota for years.

Meanwhile, the private Dangote refinery in Nigeria, Africa’s largest crude processing facility, is ramping up production of fuels and is set to ship its first gasoline cargo out of the African region with a vessel heading for Asia.

The refinery, which began operations last year, has so far exported gasoline only to the West African region.

Tariffs on imported goods can have a wide ripple effect on prices, especially in the auto industry where supply chains are global, complex, and highly sensitive to cost changes.

In this graphic, Visual Capitalist’s Marcus Lu reveals how tariffs will impact U.S. car prices, assuming a flat 25% tariff is applied onto vehicles imported from outside North America.

Data & Discussion

The data for this visualization comes from Insurify, which projected price increases for various car brands based on their exposure to overseas manufacturing and parts.

For models assembled within North America, the projections represent a 25% tariff on a model’s non-U.S. content and up to a 15% tariff discount of the total MSRP. Visit the official White House fact sheet to learn more.

The analysis shows that Tesla, Jeep, and Honda will be the least affected by Trump’s auto tariffs, while Buick, Hyundai, and Kia will face the steepest price hikes.

Buick’s Asia-Centric Production

Although Buick is an American brand, the company produces many of its models in China and South Korea. As a result, Buick tops this list with a 22% projected price increase—the highest among all brands surveyed.

This underscores how globalization has changed the footprint of even legacy U.S. nameplates. In fact, Buick is so big in China it has its own sub-brand.

Hyundai and Kia Face High Tariff Risks

Other vulnerable brands are Hyundai and Kia, each projected to see a 21–22% increase in vehicle prices. Though both brands have some manufacturing presence in the U.S., a significant portion of their models and components are still imported from South Korea.

In late 2024, Hyundai Motor Group Metaplant America opened in Georgia, which the company will use to build its U.S.-sold electric vehicles. The plant is capable of producing up to 500,000 vehicles per year.

Tesla Is the Least Affected

Tesla’s vertically integrated supply chain and domestic manufacturing help shield it from tariff risks. With most of its production based in the U.S.—particularly at its Fremont and Austin plants—Tesla’s vehicles are projected to increase in price by only 3% under new tariff rules.

This minimal impact could give Tesla a competitive edge if other brands are forced to raise prices. Fortune recently reported that Tesla is still America’s EV leader, though sales dropped year-over-year in April by 16%.

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out The Best Selling Vehicle in Every State in 2024 on Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist.

It really isn’t about how much you make (income) any more, it’s about how much you get to keep (incomes vs. taxes).

And taxes aren’t exactly beloved, even on the continent with the highest marginal tax rates.

So who’s really getting to keep the most of what they earn? We take a look in Europe specifically.

This visualization, via Visual Capitalist’s Pallavi Rao, ranks gross and net earnings for dual-income European families with two dependents, and quantifies the impact of taxes and social contributions made in 2024.

The data for this visualization comes from Eurostat, accessed via Euronews. It is not adjusted for inflation or local costs. Net income includes tax returns and family allowances.

Ranked: Countries With the Highest Income in Europe

Swiss dual-income families earned the highest gross income in Europe—over €208,000 in 2024.

Remarkably, they took home 86% of it, one of the highest net retention rates in the continent. This results in a net income of €178,553, far surpassing most other European peers.

While income taxes are relatively high, Swiss families must also make mandatory contributions to healthcare and pensions, which significantly reduces their overall taxable income.

Child support is also impressive: with monthly payments per child, daycare subsides, and tax deductions for childcare costs.

All of this substantially increases their net income (or their take-home pay).

Similarly, the Netherlands is fifth by gross income at €131,563, and they retain 77% of it after deductions.

For reference, Dutch families took home over €101,000, putting them ahead of bigger economies like Germany, France, and Italy.

Looking at Eastern Europe’s Taxes

Countries like Romania and Lithuania show stark contrasts from Western Europe.

Romanian families earned just over €40,000 but took home only €26,766, or just 67% of gross pay.

Lithuania fares similarly, with families losing about one-third of earnings to taxes.

Interestingly, both countries have a flat personal income tax rate. Why does that matter?

This IMF analysis on tax redistribution helps explain. In countries like Romania or Lithuania, tax and transfer systems aren’t doing enough to redistribute wealth and reduce poverty.

Sometimes they even make it worse because the poor pay taxes (especially flat or indirect ones) that outweigh the help they get from the state.

This shows how less progressive tax systems and weak social benefits can actually increase the financial pressure on low-income families—especially in Eastern Europe.

What this graphic doesn’t cover is how living costs differ. Check out The Average Income for A European Family, Adjusted for Living Costs on Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist.

Via Remix news,

Bavarian Prime Minister Markus Söder has come out with an aggressive plan to prep Germany for war. Support for Ukraine, defense against Russia, and efforts to prevent terrorists from getting their hands on nuclear weapons are the priorities. 

“Compulsory military and civilian service is the future,” said Bavarian Prime Minister Markus Söder, according to Magyar Nemzet.

“It is not enough to simply send out questionnaires to young people asking if they would be willing to serve; more decisive steps are needed,” he added. 

Germany suspended compulsory military service in 2011, but the service could be reactivated via a parliamentary ruling. The German government’s coalition agreement currently only allows for voluntary military service. However, Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has already indicated that a much more ambitious bill is in the works, which would allow for the introduction of compulsory military service if necessary. 

In addition to the issue of conscription, Söder also urged the maximum deployment of the Bundeswehr —the German army — and again called for the development of a national missile defense system. 

“This also requires technology – an Iron Dome system is absolutely necessary to protect not only Berlin, but all of Germany,” he said, emphasizing that urgent action, including more sanctions, is needed to deter Russia. 

Söder also called for full support for Ukraine, including supplying the country with arms. Thorsten Frei, the head of the German Chancellery, warned on Monday that the threat to U.S. military bases in Germany had increased significantly after the U.S. air strikes on Iran. 

“We stand with the United States and Israel,” Frei stated, adding that German security agencies are doing everything they can to protect American facilities. 

Regarding the attacks on Iran, the politician highlighted:

“The fact is that it was not only Israel that was in serious danger. If a terrorist regime were to obtain nuclear weapons, it would also pose a serious threat to world peace.”

Read more here…

33-year-old socialist Zohran Mamdani beat 67-year-old former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo in New York City’s Democratic mayoral primary on Tuesday night, and is well on his way to becoming the city’s first Muslim mayor. 

Cuomo conceded the race earlier in the evening after Mamdani received nearly 44% of the votes with 90% of the votes counted at 10:30 p.m. ET. The former governor said at a watch party: “He deserved it. He won.” He told the NY Times that he may still run in the November mayoral election as an independent, saying “I want to analyze and talk to some colleagues.” 

That said, as the Guardian notes, given how left-leaning NYC is along with the unpopularity of incumbent mayor Eric Adams, Mumdani is likely to become New York’s 11th mayor.

Mamdani’s proposals include rent freezes, free buses, and city-run grocery stores which would be funded by $10 billion in new taxes on corporations and the wealthy. 

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) and Sen. Bernie Sanders congratulated Mamdani on his win, with AOC writing on X “Billionaires and lobbyists poured millions against you and our public finance system. And you won.” 

Congratulations, @ZohranKMamdani!

Your dedication to an affordable, welcoming, and safe New York City where working families can have a shot has inspired people across the city.

Billionaires and lobbyists poured millions against you and our public finance system.

And you won. https://t.co/YbJFsYjemm

— Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (@AOC) June 25, 2025

Which may not bode well for the city’s corporate tax revenues. As The Free Press noted last week, New York business owners plan to flee both the city and the state if Mamdani wins…

“We may consider closing our supermarkets and selling the business,” said 76-year-old billionaire John Catsimatidis of Gristedes Supermarkets, adding “We have other businesses. Thank God, we have other businesses.”

He also suggested that his real estate conglomerate – Red Apple Group, may move to New Jersey too.

“There’s the possibility we’d move our corporate offices to New Jersey. Why not?” he said. “Then you’d have four years of peace.”

Probably not a bad idea…

NEW: Former rapper and socialist New York mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani has pulled ahead of Andrew Cuomo in the city’s primary, according to a new poll.

Mamdani, 33, has pulled ahead of Cuomo in a new Emerson poll, leading him 52% to 48%.

Mamdani is accused of voicing his… pic.twitter.com/bMmwDV0AnI

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) June 23, 2025

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