Update (1335ET): Confirming the optimistic readout from the Kremlin, President Trump just posted on TruthSocial stating that his call with Putin “went very well.” (emphasis ours)

Just completed my two hour call with President Vladimir Putin of Russia. 

I believe it went very well. 

Russia and Ukraine will immediately start negotiations toward a Ceasefire and, more importantly, an END to the War. 

The conditions for that will be negotiated between the two parties, as it can only be, because they know details of a negotiation that nobody else would be aware of. 

The tone and spirit of the conversation were excellent. If it wasn’t, I would say so now, rather than later. 

Russia wants to do largescale TRADE with the United States when this catastrophic “bloodbath” is over, and I agree. 

There is a tremendous opportunity for Russia to create massive amounts of jobs and wealth. Its potential is UNLIMITED. Likewise, Ukraine can be a great beneficiary on Trade, in the process of rebuilding its Country. 

Negotiations between Russia and Ukraine will begin immediately. 

I have so informed President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, of Ukraine, Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, President Emmanuel Macron, of France, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, of Italy, Chancellor Friedrich Merz, of Germany, and President Alexander Stubb, of Finland, during a call with me, immediately after the call with President Putin. 

The Vatican, as represented by the Pope, has stated that it would be very interested in hosting the negotiations. 

Let the process begin!

And cue the European leaders and US neocons fuming over the potential for peace.

*  *  *

Update(1300ET): Presidents Trump and Putin have ended their phone call, which lasted for more than two hours, according to RIA. This suggests some heavy lifting was done regarding peace in Ukraine, and restoring Washington-Moscow relations. Trump had reportedly phoned Zelensky just prior to speaking with Putin. It appears an overall ‘positive’ development, also given the emerging wire headlines:

• PUTIN CALLED HIS CONVERSATION WITH TRUMP USEFUL: TASS
• PUTIN: MEMORANDUM WITH UKRAINE MAY INCLUDE TRUCE TERMS: TASS
• RUSSIA READY TO WORK WITH UKRAINE ON FUTURE PEACE DEAL: TASS
• PUTIN SAYS HIS CONVERSATION WITH TRUMP WAS VERY MEANINGFUL: IFX
• PUTIN SAYS TRUCE IS POSSIBLE IF CERTAIN AGREEMENTS REACHED:TASS

But this Putin reference to “certain agreements” or conditions being reached will be the sticking point. Zelensky has repeatedly made clear “this is Ukraine’s land” when it comes to the annexed four eastern territories and Crimea.

Very likely, Putin pressed this point with Trump – that Zelensky is refusing any level of compromise (which is precisely what Kiev is currently accusing Moscow of doing). 

As we await the call readouts from both sides, Vice President JD Vance’s latest remarks upon returning to the US from Rome lay out where things stand:

JD Vance:

There’s fundamental mistrust between Russia and the West. It’s one of the things Trump thinks is frankly stupid, and we should be able to move beyond the mistakes that have been made in the past, but that takes two to tango. pic.twitter.com/o0UU9aSBOu

— Clash Report (@clashreport) May 19, 2025

Meanwhile…

Guys, we are again allowed to admit that NATO’s open door to Ukraine and integration with Kyiv was one of the causes of the war. Also that Russia is shaping its forces to counter NATO expansion. pic.twitter.com/jQZQ6Ca9CD

— Justin Logan (@JustinTLogan) May 19, 2025

* * *

President Trump is expected to hold a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday, followed by a call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky – after they were first announced Saturday.

Writing in all caps, the president posted over the weekend to Truth Social, “The subjects of the call with be, stopping the ‘bloodbath’ that is killing, on average, more than 5000 Russian and Ukrainian soldiers a week, and trade.”

He continued in the statement by saying “hopefully it will be a productive day, a ceasefire will take place, and this very violent war, a war that should have never happened, will end.” His highly optimistic note ended with “God bless us all!!!” – again written in all caps.

Trump has further indicated he’ll be in contact with “various” NATO leaders related to these ceasefire efforts, coming on heels of the Friday meeting between Russian and Ukrainian delegations – the first such direct engagement since efforts at talks ceased within the opening months of 2022 and the war’s start.

The NY Times has previewed:

The call, which Mr. Trump said would take place at 10 a.m. Eastern, would be the third known phone conversation between the two men since the American president’s second term began. The first two, which took place in February and March, were celebrated in Moscow as signs of weakening Western resolve to isolate and punish Russia for its invasion of Ukraine.

And the Kremlin issued the following Monday:

“The conversation is important, taking into account the negotiations held in Istanbul,” Peskov said. “As for the talks, we [in the Kremlin] have already said everything we could, we underscored the basic points,” he added. “We will now wait for it. We will give the maximum information possible based on the results of the conversation,” he stated.

There was little concrete which came out of the meeting, other than a new POW swap – which is to involve 1,000 captives returned on either side – and declarations that each side is open to meeting a gain.

Still, the warring sides are far apart in terms of conditions, with Zelensky having reasserted on Friday, “In all discussions – and I emphasize this – and this is my unwavering position – we do not legally recognize any of our temporarily occupied territories as Russian. This is the Ukrainian land.”

Just ahead of the Putin-Zelensky calls at the White House on Monday:

.@zerohedge reporter gets the first question during today’s White House press briefing.@cosgrove_iv does not disappoint: question about financing foreign wars, comments on the “Clinton body count,” and further probing of the Jeffrey Epstein files. pic.twitter.com/YjXQBpNAK9

— Liberty Nation (@libertynation) May 19, 2025

Meanwhile, Secretary of State Marco Rubio revealed the US administration’s thinking on how things are really going at this point. He reiterated to CBS News’ ‘Face the Nation’ on Sunday that the White House will not tolerate endless negotiations which simply drag the war and killing on further.

“On the one hand, we’re trying to achieve peace and end a very bloody, costly, and destructive war. So there’s some element of patience that is required,” he began by acknowledging.

“On the other hand, we don’t have time to waste. There are a lot of other things happening in the world that we also need to be paying attention to. So we don’t want to be involved in this process of just endless talks. There has to be some progress, some movement forward,” he then emphasized.

The US is currently examining competing ceasefire proposals offered by each side. “If those papers have ideas on them that are realistic and rational, then I think we know we’ve made progress,” he said.

The following is reportedly among Moscow’s top list of demands, which can be described as maximalist (at least from the West’s perspective), per a recent Bloomberg report:

• Ukraine agreeing to neutral status regarding NATO
• No foreign troops in Ukraine
• No nuclear weapons in Ukraine
• De-facto recognition of Crimea and lost eastern territories as now Russia’s
• Withdrawal of Kiev forces from these territories before a ceasefire takes effect

But Ukraine has rejected the Kremlin’s demand of de-facto recognizing the loss of its territories. Zelensky has time and again vowed to fight on, despite mounting losses and serious manpower issues. 

Getting Trump on side is not about Russia. UK/EU want the US bogged down in Ukraine, which means US bogged down in Europe, and US money continues to flow. They don’t care about Ukraine, they care about the US remaining in Europe, invested in the globalist agenda.

They… pic.twitter.com/p3mM1T7hDc

— Alex Christoforou (@AXChristoforou) May 19, 2025

The White House is likely to latch on to anything positive regarding these talks that it can; however, President Trump has clearly been exerting pressure for more speedy resolution, and is growing impatient.

The Europeans are ready to slap more sanctions on Moscow, and Washington has also warned that this would essentially be plan B if Russia doesn’t cooperate. But Russia’s fresh maximalist demands will be a hard sell.

*  *  *

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The Supreme Court handed a major win to the Trump administration on Monday, granting its request to proceed with revoking legal protections for hundreds of thousands of Venezuelan immigrants.

In a brief order, the justices approved an emergency application from the administration, allowing officials to undo a Biden-era extension of Temporary Protected Status (TPS) that shields Venezuelans from deportation and grants them work permits. Liberal Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson was the lone dissenter, indicating she would have denied the request.

The decision allows Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem to move forward with a policy reversal that would strip protections from more than 300,000 Venezuelans who were granted TPS due to political and humanitarian crises in their home country.

TPS, created by Congress in 1990, offers safe harbor to nationals of countries suffering from war, natural disaster, or other emergencies. Individuals granted status can legally remain and work in the U.S. for renewable 18-month periods.

At the center of the legal fight is a TPS designation made in October 2023 and extended again in January—just before Trump returned to office. The protections were originally set to expire in October 2026, but in February, Noem moved to unwind the designations early, triggering a legal challenge.

In April, a federal judge in the Northern District of California blocked the rollback, citing potential racial bias behind the move. But the Trump administration fired back, arguing the judiciary had no business second-guessing decisions made under the executive branch’s immigration authority.

At the time, Trump border czar Tom Homan called the move “Another activist judge making a stupid ruling,” adding “I’ve been around since 1984 — and ‘temporary protected status’ is never temporary.”

“Bf you look at that decision, it’s based on opinion, not the rule of law.”

🚨Tom Homan sounds off on judge blocking Trump’s effort to end TPS for Venezuelan illegals:

“Another activist judge making a stupid ruling.”

“I’ve been around since 1984 — and ‘temporary protected status’ is never temporary.”

“If you look at that decision, it’s based on… pic.twitter.com/fymufGw3HO

— Western Lensman (@WesternLensman) April 1, 2025

h/t Western Lensman

Solicitor General D. John Sauer, in the emergency application to the Supreme Court, said, “The court’s order contravenes fundamental executive branch prerogatives and indefinitely delays sensitive policy decisions in an area of immigration policy that Congress recognized must be flexible, fast-paced and discretionary.”

The move was challenged by the National TPS Alliance and individual Venezuelans, who argued the administration was trying to dodge judicial oversight altogether.

“It should be unremarkable that federal courts say what the law is,” their lawyers wrote.

Monday’s ruling comes just days after the high court dealt a blow to Trump’s immigration playbook in a separate case. In that decision, the court ruled that immigrants detained under the Alien Enemies Act must be given a real chance to contest deportation.

While litigation over the TPS rollback continues in lower courts, the Supreme Court’s order clears the way for the Trump administration to begin rescinding protections while the legal fight plays out.

Authored by Andrew Korybko via substack,

The battle was lost but the political war isn’t over…

The struggle between liberal-globalists and populist-nationalists in Romania ended in the former’s favor after Sunday’s presidential run-off election, which was preceded by the authorities controversially annulling the first round in early December on the false pretext that the frontrunner was Russian-backed. Calin Georgescu was ultimately barred from running again and instead appointed his ally George Simion in his place, who came out on top in early May’s first-round re-do, only to lose the second round.

Simion alleged that the Moldovan government was rallying the diaspora there against him and also claimed that other friendlier diasporas’ polling stations didn’t have enough ballots. Traditional fraud like ballot-stuffing was also suspected by some. 

Meanwhile, Telegram founder Pavel Durov revealed that he rejected the French intelligence chief’s request to ban conservative Romanian accounts, thus showing the international stakes in this election. 

A few words will now be shared about the geostrategic context.

It was assessed before December’s now-annulled first round that “The Outcome Of Romania’s Presidential Election Could Spoil The US’ Potential Escalation Plans” of using Romania as a launchpad for any conventional European intervention in Ukraine.

France, the country that’s most loudly called for the aforesaid scenario, has a military base in Romania and signed a defense pact with neighboring Moldova last year. This positions France to swiftly make a move on nearby Odessa if the decision is ever made.

Completely unfounded allegations are circulating on Telegram and Twitter regarding alleged French interference in the Romanian presidential election.

France categorically rejects these allegations and calls on everyone to exercise responsibility and respect for Romanian… pic.twitter.com/PxFO7KnzDm

— France Diplomacy 🇫🇷🇪🇺 (@francediplo_EN) May 18, 2025

The only way to prevent that would be for populist-nationalists to come to power and either kick out French troops or ensure that measures are in place to stop them from unilaterally using Romanian soil for conventional military operations in Ukraine. Likewise, the only way to retain the viability of this scenario is to keep populist-nationalists out of power, ergo the alleged fraud against Simion. 

The significance of Sunday’s election was therefore that it keeps this possibility open even if it’s never used.

If there’s any silver lining to their loss, populist-nationalists could take partial consolation in the fact that they unprecedentedly galvanized their supporters during the election, and this mobilization of civil society could remain in place to expose the liberal-globalists’ corruption and organize peaceful protests. They could also attempt to raise maximum awareness of the abovementioned scenario of France using Romania as a launchpad for conventionally intervening in Ukraine with all that could dangerously entail.

To that end, more investigative journalism will be key, as will circulating their findings through the global network of friends that they built over the past half-year.

Populist-nationalists in the US and across Europe are enraged at the injustice that the liberal-globalists committed against Georgescu, with even Vance mentioning it during his famous speech in February at the Munich Security Conference, so they can count on them to inform the world if France takes any steps to use Romania as a military launchpad.

That’s what comes next after the liberal-globalists’ (allegedly fraudulent) victory in Romania, namely strengthening the populist-nationalist movement in ways that hold the new authorities accountable for everything that they do, including exposing possibly forthcoming French military plans vis-à-vis Ukraine. 

The battle was lost but the political war isn’t over, and Simion’s impressive second-round showing in spite of alleged fraud proves that populist-nationalism has finally gone mainstream in Romania.

Israel has enforced a nearly three-month blockade on humanitarian aid going into the Gaza Strip, amid reports that Hamas and criminal elements have been intercepting and stealing the aid, and then reselling it.

The Wall Street Journal reports Monday that “Israel will allow the resumption of limited aid deliveries to the Gaza Strip, ending a nearly three-month blockade that has depleted humanitarian supplies in the enclave as the military expands its operations there.”

Pressure has been coming from Washington and international organizations for the ban on aid to be lifted, on new reports that famine is once again hitting the largely destroyed Palestinian enclave.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office first announced Sunday that “a basic quantity of food to be brought in” to avoid a starvation crisis. He has also declared his intent to take over all of the Gaza Strip.

Interestingly, the statement said that a driving concern is not the plight of Gaza civilians, but that mass starvation could risk endangering the Israeli military campaign to annihilate the militant group Hamas.

Netanyahu is framing the move as necessary to keep up political support from Washington:

Netanyahu said U.S. senators he has known for years as supporters of Israel, “our best friends in the world”, were telling him the scenes of hunger were draining vital support and bringing Israel close to a “red line, to a point where we might lose control”.

“It is for that reason, in order to achieve victory, we have to somehow solve the problem,” he said, in a message apparently addressed to far-right hardliners in his government who have insisted aid be denied to Gaza to stop it reaching Hamas.

So the new policy to allow aid in is a political ploy, but one that will indeed likely satisfy critics, for the time being at least.

Fresh reports out of the UN and World Health Organization (WHO) have sounded the alarm, saying nearly 500,000 people are at risk of starvation in Gaza.

“Populations across the Gaza Strip are at risk of famine as fighting has surged again, border crossings are still closed, and food is dangerously scarce,” a UN statement says.

“Hunger and malnutrition have intensified sharply since all aid was blocked from entering on 2 March, reversing the clear humanitarian gains seen during the ceasefire earlier this year,” the UN’s World Food Program has said.

Unbelievable
Happening now in Rafah..

Destroying the rubble.. Operation Gideon Chariot. pic.twitter.com/dZkAd1G2Xz

— Motasem A Dalloul (@AbujomaaGaza) May 19, 2025

And the organization, Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), projects that “an alarming 71,000 children and more than 17,000 mothers will need urgent treatment for acute malnutrition. A report states that “At the beginning of 2025, agencies estimated 60,000 children would need treatment.”

The organization further warned that “Families in Gaza are starving while the food they need is sitting at the border.” As it’s believed that tens of thousands of Hamas and Islamic Jihad militants are still utilizing Gaza’s vast tunnel network to fight the Israelis, the war looks to continue possibly for years to come.

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

GM once supported California’s 2035 EV target. It wisely has second thoughts…

Sanity Prevails

In 2022, California Governor Gavin Newsom approved regulations banning the sale of new gasoline-powered cars and trucks by 2035. GM foolishly supported the idea.

I am pleased to report that sanity has prevailed. The Wall Street Journal reports GM Is Pushing Hard to Tank California’s EV Mandate

“We need your help!” GM said in an email it sent this past week to thousands of its white-collar employees. “Emissions standards that are not aligned with market realities pose a serious threat to our business by undermining consumer choice and vehicle affordability.”

GM, one of the biggest sellers of EVs in the U.S., is encouraging employees to use scripted talking points to lobby Senators. The goal is to nullify a 2022 California measure that would ban the sale of new gasoline-powered cars and trucks by 2035, a mandate that has since been adopted by 11 other states. The Senate could vote as early as next week to revoke a waiver that allows California to set its own stricter tailpipe-emissions standards.

GM set its own internal goal of ending sales of nearly all gas-only vehicles by 2035 and initially supported the California target, while advocating for a uniform national standard.

But the EV market has taken a turn. Three years ago, U.S. automakers couldn’t keep up with demand; now EV sales are beginning to sputter. Discounts are drying up, car buyers are seeking lower-priced alternatives, and Congress is looking to roll back tax credits that for years have powered electric-vehicle sales.

GM abandoned a self-imposed target to build 400,000 electric vehicles by mid-2024, and last year the company said it would delay plans for a new Buick electric vehicle and push back the opening of an EV truck factory. Ford Motor and other automakers have similarly scaled back plans.

“GM believes in customer choice, and we continue to focus on offering the best and broadest portfolio of vehicles on the market,” the spokeswoman said. 

The turn against California’s mandate has been bipartisan. When the U.S. House passed a bill identical to the Senate’s earlier this month, 35 Democrats supported the legislation, including two from California.

Rep. Laura Gillen, a Democrat from New York, one of the states to adopt the mandate, said she supports the goal of reducing emissions but that the timeline is “out of touch with reality” and an undue burden on consumers facing a cost-of-living crisis.

“If everybody in my district went out and got an EV, the grid could not accommodate that,” Gillen said.

Hoot of the Day

GM now supports customer choice. Fancy that.

Republicans are using the Congressional Review Act (CRA) which allows Congress to review and potentially overturn federal agency rules.

The maneuver only needs a simple majority and is thus filibuster-proof. Thus, the CRA should pass the Senate easily.

There may be a legal challenge, but I expect Trump will prevail on this one if there is a challenge. If seven Democrats sign on, then this can pass by normal legislation.

Eleven states have adopted California’s mandate and if Democrats take the White House again, they may adopt more nonsensical EV rules.

So it’s best to get 60 votes. But 4 years of sanity is better than none.

Regeneron Pharmaceuticals announced it has been “named the successful bidder” in the defunct 23andMe’s bankruptcy auction. It will acquire 23andMe’s core business lines—including Personal Genome Service, Total Health and Research Services, and Biobank—for $256 million.

New York-based Regeneron revealed that the $256 million deal to acquire 23andMe’s gigantic pool of genetic data (estimated to include 15 million people) will close by the third quarter of this year. 

“Regeneron was one of the first biotech companies to bet its future on the power of DNA, fueling our drug discovery efforts so as to deliver some of the world’s leading and most innovative medicines, including treatments to prevent blindness, for allergic diseases from asthma to atopic dermatitis, for several forms of cancer, and even for Ebola and COVID-19,” stated George D. Yancopoulos, M.D. Ph.D., co-founder, Board co-chair, President, and Chief Scientific Officer of Regeneron. 

Yancopoulos said, “We have deep experience with large-scale data management, having worked with collaborators around the world to link deidentified DNA sequences from nearly three million consented participants to electronic health records, safely and securely enabling future medical advances. We believe we can help 23andMe deliver and build upon its mission to help those interested in learning about their own DNA and how to improve their personal health, while furthering Regeneron’s efforts to use large-scale genetics research to improve the way society treats and prevents illness overall.”

Regeneron emphasized it will “prioritize the privacy, security and ethical use of 23andMe’s customer data; stands ready to work with independent, court-appointed Customer Privacy Ombudsman.” 

23andMe’s bankruptcy sparked massive concerns over the potential exploitation of Americans’ genetic data, including fears that foreign entities might gain access through the auction process. However, U.S. government officials reassured the public that the genetic pool of 15 million individuals would be safeguarded and not fall into the hands of foreign adversaries. 

Our reporting: 

• 23andMe Files For Bankruptcy, CEO Resigns – Fate Of Americans’ DNA Data Now In Court-Supervised Sale

• U.S. Official Alleges 23andMe Sold Americans’ DNA Data To Pharma Companies Owned By Foreign Adversaries

• Potential Sale Of Americans’ DNA In 23andMe Database May Trigger National Security Review

• Bankrupt 23andMe Cleared By Judge To Sell Americans’ DNA Data To Highest Bidder

• 23andMe Customers Panic To Delete Genetic Data

The key takeaway: Think twice before handing over your genetic data to private companies

US equity futures and bond yields are sharply higher across the curve as market react to Moody’s greatly delayed downgrade to US credit on Friday (it follows 14 years after S&P did the same in August 2011), with the USD trading broadly lower, gold higher and macro credit trading notably wider. As of 8am ET, S&P 500 contracts fell 1.0% and Nasdaq 100 futures down 1.4%, with investors cooling on equities after a five-day winning streak, and up 7 of the past 8 days. Pre-mkt, MegaCap Tech names are down 2-4% with Semis/Cyclicals under pressure. European and Asian shares also dropped. The yield curve is bear steepening with the 30Y yield surpassing 5% and hitting its highest level since Nov 2023 and the USD selling off: the euro rose as much as 1.1% as all major currencies advanced against the greenback. Commodities are mixed with energy/base lower and precious/ags higher. Looking ahead today, there are no major economic data releases. Fed voters Williams, Jefferson, and non-voters Logan, Kashkari and Bostic are scheduled to speak today. 

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are lower as risk appetite broadly falters (Tesla -3.5%, Nvidia -2.7%, Meta Platforms -1.9%, Alphabet -1.8%, Amazon -1.8%, Apple -1.5%, Microsoft -0.9%). Nvidia is in focus after CEO Jensen Huang showed new technologies from faster chip systems to software aimed at sustaining the AI boom at Computex in Taiwan. Alibaba shares slumped in Asia after a report that the Trump administration has raised concerns over its potential AI deal with Apple. Cryptocurrency-linked stocks including Coinbase, Robinhood and MicroStrategy fall, tracking the price of Bitcoin lower amid the risk-off mood. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

• Alibaba ADRs (BABA) fall 2.3%, following Hong Kong shares lower, after the New York Times reported that the Trump administration has raised concerns over Apple’s potential deal with the Chinese tech giant
• Novavax (NVAX) shares rally 12% after the US FDA approved the drugmaker’s Covid-19 vaccine for adults 65 years and older as well as those aged 12 to 64 years who have at least one medical condition that puts them at a higher risk of severe illness from Covid
• Reddit (RDDT) shares are down 6.4% after the web forum operator is downgraded to equal-weight from overweight at Wells Fargo, with analysts saying that recent user disruptions are likely to be more permanent as Google “more aggressively” implements AI features in search

Global markets are slower after Friday’s Moody’s downgrade of the US credit rating to Aa1 (vs AAA prev), which was attributed to “increased interest payments on debt, rising entitlement spending, and relatively low revenue generation. While markets have reacted this AM, Goldman notes that Moody’s has had a negative rating outlook since November 2023, and has lagged the other two major rating agencies, S&P and Fitch, in the downgrade to AA+. Bessent comments yesterday are also helping price action, with the Treasury Sec noting that Liberation Day tariffs may be reimposed if countries do not negotiate “in good faith” before the 90 day pause expires on July 9th. 

Monday’s pullback comes after the S&P 500 saw a nearly 20% rally from April lows, and the market was probably ripe for a retreat after such a V-shaped bounce.

Besides the sellin in stocks, we have also seen a concurrent slide in rates, with 30-year Treasury yields hitting 5.03%, at the highest since November 2023. As Bloomberg notes, the 30-year yield is in an uptrend since the March 2020 low, broke the long-term channel downtrend dating back to 1987 peak in December 2022.

Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson said investors should buy dips triggered by rising yields, as the trade truce between China and the US has lowered the odds of a recession. Among other strategists, Goldman’s David Kostin said Mag 7 stocks are likely to outperform this year, driven by robust earnings growth. RBC’s Lori Calvasina, however, sees more cuts to S&P 500 earnings estimates ahead, and said the market may be “a little ahead of itself from a fundamental perspective.”

“The current level of yields on US Treasuries doesn’t feel out of touch with economic fundamentals,” said Stephane Deo, senior portfolio manager at Eleva Capital in Paris. As for equities, “it feels very normal to me that the market needs a breather and the Moody’s downgrade is good excuse for doing just that.”

With the US deficit in focus, investors will also be parsing Trump’s giant tax and spending package. A key House committee advanced the legislation late Sunday night after Republican hardliners won agreement from party leaders to speed up cuts to Medicaid coverage.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 falls 0.7% with technology shares the worst performers, followed by mining and real estate names; Estoxx 50 is down 0.7% with underperforming sectors including consumer discretionary and info tech. Here are some of the biggest European movers:

• Ryanair shares rise as much as 5.4% to a record high. The budget airline gave strong commentary ahead of the key summer season and announced a €750m buyback.
• Diageo shares gain as much as 2.9% after the maker of alcoholic beverages saw third-quarter sales beat estimates, with analysts reassured by the company maintaining its full-year guidance.
• Genuit Group shares rise as much as 3.5% after the plastic pipe maker said trading was in line with expectations over the opening four months of the year, and noted “encouraging” signs of recovery in the UK market.
• Romania’s BET index gains 4.6% after Nicusor Dan, the centrist mayor of Bucharest, won presidential runoff on Sunday, quashing the ambitions of a far-right Donald Trump loyalist.
• Mota-Engil shares rise as much as 6.4% to €4.4, the highest intraday price since April 2024, after JB Capital raised its target price on the infrastructure construction firm.
• Pierer Mobility shares rally as much as 21% in Zurich after co-owner Bajaj Auto signs loan deal before deadline to fund restructuring at KTM unit.
• Euronext shares drop as much as 3.2% after downgrades from JPMorgan and Keefe, Bruyette & Woods. JPMorgan notes the bourse operator’s “phenomenal rally” since the start of last year.
• Ithaca Energy shares fall as much as 9.1% as Jefferies downgrades the stock to hold, saying the performance so far this year means they now trade at a premium to the broker’s valuation.
• Getlink shares slip as much as 2.9% after the Eurotunnel operator suspended its electricity interconnector between France and the UK for two weeks.
• Kainos shares fall as much as 7.3% after the UK reseller of Workday software reported a 10% drop in bookings for its fiscal year ended March 31, citing a “challenging” year.
• Poland’s WIG20 index slips as much as 1.7% after the ruling party candidate Rafal Trzaskowski secured only a narrow win over a pro-Donald Trump opponent in the first round of presidential elections.
• Pantheon Resources shares sink as much as 46% to the lowest since December after the oil and gas company reported further disappointing flow testing results for its Megrez-1 well in Alaska.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks were set for their longest run of losses in over a month, with tech shares leading the retreat following Moody’s downgrade of the US’ credit rating. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 0.2% to head for a third day of declines, the longest streak since April 7. Chipmakers TSMC and Samsung were among the biggest drags as Treasury yields advanced. Alibaba’s shares slid after a report said that the Trump administration has raised concerns over Apple’s potential deal with the company on AI features. South Korea’s benchmark fell the most in a month, while gauges in Taiwan and Australia also slipped.

Moody’s downgrade “hammers home questions about the appropriate value of US government debt and begs the question whether the downgrade may shift investment mandates by portfolio managers, treasurers and other investors,” said Kyle Rodda, a senior market analyst at Capital.com. “A weak batch of Chinese economic data weighed on market sentiment slightly.”

In FX, the Dollar is starting off the week on the backfoot, weighed on by the Moody downgrade on Friday and weekend headlines from Bessent. EUR is leading gains, trading 100 bps higher as FX vols turn bid across G10 pairs with EUR 1m now trading at 8.4vols (+0.9v overnight). JPY is also gaining this morning (+60bps vs USD) as short dated downside remains bid while people add positions over the Kato-Bessent meeting later this week with ~35bp implied gap in USDJPY. Despite the broadly weaker Dollar this morning and the lowest USDCNY fix since early April (7.1916), USDCNH is trading flat after local data came in weaker than expected. Activity weakened in April, reflecting both the negative impact of increased US tariffs and still-soft domestic demand. Our economists now forecast USDCNY to gradually move lower through the year, shifting from a headwind to a tailwind to many EM currencies, for which the cross is an important anchor. EM currencies that can benefit the most in this environment are those (i) with a larger undervaluation signal, (ii) with a positive beta to CNY and to risk more broadly, (iii) where conversion of USD deposits can have large flow impacts, and (iv) where carry contributes positively to total returns.

In credit, macro credit is opening the first trading session of the week notably wider in sympathy with equity futures, after closing Friday a touch firmer in an underperformance relative to equities in the risk-on tape. As a whole, last week saw CDX IG move over -7bps tighter and CDX HY rise nearly +1.75pt following positive developments on the US/China trade tariff negotiations front. Sharp downward price action in the distressed credit universe (NFE Inc, LINTA, SAGLEN) were front and center throughout the week on the micro front, some of which impacted CDX HY curves and led to some curve steepening. With CDX spreads back in the ~55bps neighborhood, the desk saw a resumption of hedge-setting demand both in one-delta and vol — with the latter continuing to be better bid, particularly tail.

In rates, treasuries near lows into the early US session, after extending Friday’s late selloff on the back of Moody’s Ratings stripping the US government of its top credit rating. Leading the selloff, 30-year yields top 5%, steepening the curve. 10-year Treasury yields advanced seven basis points to 4.54% and their 30-year equivalents rose about eight basis points to 5.02%. European rates are also higher while stock futures are under pressure ahead of the cash open. US yields are 1bp to 8bp cheaper across maturities, with 2s10s curve steeper by ~6bp, 5s30s by ~4bp; 10-year is near 4.55%, higher by 7bp since Friday’s close, with Gilts faring worse than their German peers. UK 30-year yields rise 9 bps to 5.49%. This week’s Treasury auctions include $16 billion 20-year new issue Wednesday and $18 billion 10-year TIPS reopening Thursday. 

In commodities, oil prices are lower ahead of a phone call between US President Trump and Russian President Putin later on Monday. WTI is down 0.6% at $62.10 a barrel. Meanwhile, gold rose 1.2% or $36 to around $3,240/oz, with appetite for the haven asset boosted by concerns about the US economic outlook.

Today’s US economic data calendar includes April leading index (10am). Fed speaker slate includes Bostic (8:30am, 2:45pm), Jefferson and Williams (8:45am), Logan (1:15pm) and Kashkari (1:30pm)

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini -1.0%
• Nasdaq 100 mini -1.4%
• Russell 2000 mini -1.6%
• Stoxx Europe 600 -0.7%
• DAX -0.3%
• CAC 40 -0.8%
• 10-year Treasury yield +7 basis points at 4.55%
• VIX +2.5 points at 19.74
• Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.6% at 1224.79
• euro +0.9% at $1.1267
• WTI crude -0.6% at $62.14/barrel

Top Overnight News

• US President Trump said he would be willing to travel to China to speak with Chinese President Xi regarding foreign policy and economic issues. It was separately reported that President Trump said Walmart (WMT) should stop trying to blame tariffs as the reason for raising prices throughout the chain, while he added that between Walmart and China, they should “eat the tariffs” and not charge valued customers anything.
• US VP Vance said Europe is an important ally of the US but disagreements on trade, while he hoped the meeting in Rome with European Commission President Von der Leyen would lead to long-term trade negotiations and trade advantages.
• US VP Vance discussed with Canadian PM Carney the shared interests and goals of the US and Canada including fair trade policies and the continued lasting relationship between the two countries.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said regarding new tariff rates that countries are coming up with very good proposals with few exceptions and the timing of deals depends on whether countries are negotiating in good faith, while he thinks they will do a lot of regional deals. Furthermore, he said countries will get a letter with a US tariff rate if they are not negotiating in good faith and he thinks that rate would be the April 2nd level, according to interviews with CNN and NBC.
• US-China trade truce and China’s prior defiant stance in negotiating with the US is said to have convinced some countries they need to take a tougher position in their own negotiations with the Trump administration, according to Bloomberg.
• Australian PM Albanese said he is “up for a deal” with Europe on free trade following years of trade discussions, according to Bloomberg.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly subdued following the US sovereign rating downgrade by Moody’s which spurred a mild ‘sell America’ impulse, while participants also digested mixed Chinese activity data. ASX 200 declined with underperformance in the commodity-related sectors but with the downside stemmed ahead of tomorrow’s RBA rate decision in which money markets are pricing around a 99% likelihood of a 25bps cut. Nikkei 225 retreated amid currency-related headwinds while the data calendar for Japan is very light to start the week and BoJ Deputy Governor Uchida stuck to the script in which he maintained the rate hike signal should prices improve as forecast. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were lacklustre amid the glum mood across the Asia-Pac region but with the downside in the mainland limited after mixed Chinese data in which Industrial Production topped forecast but Retail Sales disappointed, while the latest House Prices continued to contract Y/Y albeit at a slightly slower than previous pace.

Top Asian News

• Nomura raises China’s 2025 GDP forecast to 4.5% (prev. 4.0%).
• South Korean presidential front-runner Lee said ties with Russia and China are also important, while he also stated that South Korea should not go all in on the alliance with the US and there is no need to rush a trade agreement with the US.
• US White House and Congressional officials reportedly scrutinised in recent months Apple’s (AAPL) plan to strike a deal to make Alibaba’s (9988 HK) AI available on iPhones in China.
• China’s NDRC cuts retail fuel prices by CNY 230/t for Gasoline, CNY 220/t for Diesel; effective Tuesday 20th May.

European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.5%) opened lower across the board and have been trading sideways throughout the morning. Pressure which follows on from a mostly negative APAC session, stemming from Moody’s downgrading the US. European sectors opened mixed but now display a mostly negative picture. Optimised Personal Care tops the pile, joined closely by Insurance and then Healthcare. Real Estate lags given the yield environment.

Top European News

• European Commission cuts EZ GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 0.9% (prev. 1.3% in Nov); sees 2026 growth at 1.4% (prev. 1.6%); risks tilted to the downside; 2025 Inflation seen at 2.1%, 2026 seen at 1.7%. Growth outlook revised significantly downwards amid weaker trade outlook and trade policy uncertainty. EZ growth forecast based on assumption of 10% US tariff on all EU goods, 25% on steel and aluminium on cars, no tariffs on pharma and chips.
• UK and EU Deal: Should work towards association of UK to the EU ERASMUS+ programme; continue efforts to support travel and cultural exchange; work towards a balanced youth experience scheme on terms to be mutually agreed. Should explore UK’s possible participation in EU’s internal electricity market. Work towards establishing a link between carbon markets.
• “Sky News has been told Brussels has dropped demands to link the duration of the agrifood deal to the one for fish – a key [UK PM] Starmer ask”, according to Sky News’ Coates.
• UK and the EU are expected to agree on Monday on a major post-Brexit reconciliation in which they will sign a security and defence partnership as the centrepiece of a “reset”, although some sticking points were said to remain with talks ‘going down to the wire‘, according to FT. More recently, Sky’s Coates posted “Sky News understands there was a late breakthrough on the deal and that you expect news on it mid morning. Talks went well post midnight last night”.
• EU and UK negotiators reportedly reached an outline deal to strengthen ties; deal needs political sign off, according to Bloomberg sources.
• EU capitals have reportedly agreed to launch a EUR 150bln loans-for-arms fund which will be backed by the bloc’s joint budget, via FT citing sources; follows political agreement being secured this morning. Formal agreement expected on Wednesday.
• ECB’s Wunsch said the ECB may have to cut interest rates below 2% and noted that downside risks to growth and inflation have become bigger, while he currently sees no case for a half-point cut in the foreseeable future. Furthermore, he said the Euro area may be exposed to a negative economic shock in the short term which may be followed by a positive shock in 2026 and 2027, according to FT.
• ECB’s Schnabel said the ECB should remain cautious on interest rate moves and that a steady hand is needed for now, while she commented it is to be seen what will happen regarding a June cut and noted that declining energy prices and slowing global growth may lower inflation in the short term but could reverse in the medium term.
• Portugal’s incumbent centre-right party won the election with around 32% of the votes, while PM Montenegro said after the election win that another minority government is the most likely option.
• Portugal will appeal to the European Commission to pressure France over cross-border electricity links after a blackout last month, according to FT.
• Polish pro-EU candidate Trzaskowski was narrowly ahead in Poland’s first round presidential vote and will enter a run-off with right-wing rival Nawrocki.
• Fitch affirmed Greece at BBB: Outlook Revised to Positive from Stable.

FX

• USD is very much on the backfoot vs. peers after Moody’s downgraded the US sovereign rating, whereby the rating agency warning of government debt and a widening budget deficit. These concerns have been heightened by news that the House Budget Committee approved President Trump’s tax cut bill to set up a possible vote on the passage of the bill as soon as this week. Concerns over the final price tag of the bill has triggered a “sell US” theme at the start of the week. Data docket today is light, but Fed speak is heavy today with Bostic, Williams, Jefferson, Logan & Kashkari all due on the docket. DXY has slipped below last week’s low at 100.27.
• EUR is firmer vs. the USD and at the top of the G10 leaderboard as traders seek a liquid alternative to the USD. Newsflow out of the Eurozone over the weekend has mainly centered over ECB speak with ECB’s Wunsch stating that the ECB may have to cut interest rates below 2% and noted that downside risks to growth and inflation have become bigger. Elsewhere, ECB’s Schnabel said the ECB should remain cautious on interest rate moves and that a steady hand is needed for now. EUR/USD has ventured as high as 1.1273, currently near highs.
• JPY has been a beneficiary of the softer USD and downbeat risk sentiment with USD/JPY back below the 145 mark. Newsflow out of Japan has been on the light side following reporting late last week that Japan is holding out for a better trade deal with the US, which would include a full removal of 25% tariffs.
• GBP is one of the better performers across the majors with sentiment underpinned by news that the EU and UK have agreed an outline of a deal which will strengthen ties between both sides. As part of a post-Brexit reconciliation deal, they will sign a security and defence partnership as the centrepiece of a “reset”. Cable has eclipsed last week’s best at 1.3360 with a session peak at 1.3382.
• Antipodeans are both firmer vs. the broadly weaker USD but to a lesser degree than most peers alongside the subdued risk tone. Chinese data was mixed, in which Industrial Production topped forecast, Retail Sales disappointed and House Prices continued to contract Y/Y. Attention now turns to Tuesday’s RBA rate decision with the central bank widely-expected to deliver a 25bps rate cut.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1916 vs exp. 7.2057 (Prev. 7.1938).

Fixed Income

• USTs have started the week on the backfoot as the complex reacts to Moody’s cutting the US by one notch, joining S&P (cut August 2011) and Fitch (cut in 2023, after covid), with an AA1 rating. A cut which sparked on Sunday a sell-US trade. The announcement by Moody’s came amid US House Republicans blocking the passage of the Republican tax/spending bill due to concern that it would lift the short-run deficit. USTs themselves at the bottom of a 109-23 to 110-08 band, slipping from Friday’s 110-10+ close. Ahead, the US session is dominated by Fed speak, featuring Bostic, Williams, Logan and Kashkari.
• Bunds are also lower, with price action following the losses seen in the US. But there has been some updates for the bloc specifically, the main one of course being the EU-UK reset talks which appear to have gone well (see Gilts below for more). Elsewhere, political developments with the EU have been net-positive, but some uncertainties/risk points remain. Bunds just off the low of a 129.79 to 130.41 band, downside that accelerated as Friday’s 130.11 trough was lost. Support next at 129.59 from May 12th.
• Gilts are pressured and lagging peers amid the EU-UK updates, and also with focus on a 30yr syndication. The main development this morning was indications and since confirmation that there was a late-doors breakthrough on EU-UK reset talks, and an update is expected mid-morning once political sign off is attained. A press conference featuring UK PM Starmer and EU Commission President von der Leyen is currently set for 12:30BST. Gilts underperforming and lower by over 80 ticks at worst.

Commodities

• Subdued trade across the crude complex amid the broader downbeat sentiment across markets emanating from Moody’s downgrading the US’ rating, for the first time in over a century, from AAA to Aa1 – which effectively put it in line with the ratings by S&P and Fitch. In geopolitics, focus will be on a looming Trump-Putin call later today. Brent trades in a USD 64.69-65.60/bbl parameter.
• Positive trade across precious metals amid a leg lower in the dollar following the US sovereign rating downgrade by Moody’s, which spurred a mild ‘sell America’ impulse. Spot gold rose from a USD 3,206.72/oz low to test USD 3,250/oz to the upside.
• Little action was seen across base metals amid the overnight release of mixed Chinese data, in which Industrial Production topped forecast but Retail Sales disappointed, while the latest House Prices continued to contract Y/Y albeit at a slightly slower than previous pace. 3M LME copper currently resides in a USD 9,435.25-9,520.10/t range.
• EU will need to spend at least EUR 10bln more than last year to refill its gas reserves ahead of winter, after the first cold season in four years left its reserves heavily depleted, according to FT.
• Estonia’s Foreign Ministry said Russia detained a Liberia-flagged oil tanker after it left an Estonian Baltic Sea port.
• Oman’s Energy and Minerals Ministry signed an agreement with Occidental Petroleum (OXY) to amend and extend the Block 53 exploration and production sharing agreement.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• Israeli PM Netanyahu says “Israel will ‘take control of all’ of Gaza Strip”, via AFP.
• Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister says Iran-US nuclear talks will fail if the US insists on zero enrichment, according to NourNews.
• Israeli airstrikes killed at least 100 in Gaza as negotiators sought a ceasefire, while Israel’s military said it began a wide ground operation in northern and southern Gaza.
• Israeli PM Netanyahu’s office announced that Israel will allow the entry of a basic quantity of food into Gaza to prevent a hunger crisis.
• Israeli PM Netanyahu’s office said Gaza talks in Doha now include ending the war or a truce and hostage deal, while it added that the end of the war must include Gaza demilitarisation, Hamas exile and the release of all hostages. However, a senior Israeli official said there was little progress in Gaza talks that include ending the war.
• Hamas confirmed a new round of ceasefire talks with Israel in Doha and said both sides are discussing all issues without preconditions, according to an official cited by Reuters. It was separately reported that a series of Israeli airstrikes last week killed the de facto commander of Hamas in Gaza, Muhammad Sinwar, according to reports by Israeli press on Sunday.
• Yemen’s Houthis claimed to target Israel’s Ben Gurion airport with a ballistic missile, although Israel’s military said it successfully intercepted the missile from Yemen, while Houthis announced on Sunday evening that it planned to target Israeli airports in the coming few hours.
• Iran’s President Pezeshkian questioned whether they should believe US President Trump, who speaks of peace and threatens Iran at the same time, while he added that Tehran will continue nuclear talks with the US but is not afraid of threats.
• Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei said US President Trump’s comments during his regional visit are an embarrassment and that the US must and will leave the region, while he also commented that Israel is a dangerous and deadly cancerous tumour which must be uprooted.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• US President Trump said he will speak with Russian President Putin on Monday at 10:00EDT/15:00BST about stopping the bloodshed in Ukraine, while he will speak to Ukrainian President Zelensky and NATO members after. However, it was later reported that UK PM Starmer spoke with leaders of the US, Italy, France and Germany regarding the situation in Ukraine and catastrophic costs of the war to both sides, while they also discussed the use of sanctions if Russia failed to engage seriously in a ceasefire and peace talks.
• US President Trump said he thinks that they will make a deal with Russian President Putin and said he will use leverage against Putin if he has to, while he added that they have to meet and thinks they will probably schedule it, according to Fox News.
• US Secretary of State Rubio spoke with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov and welcomed the prisoner exchange agreement reached, while Rubio emphasised President Trump’s call for an immediate ceasefire and an end to the violence. Furthermore, Lavrov discussed with Rubio further contacts between Russia and the US, while Lavrov noted the positive role of the US in the resumption of Russia-Ukraine talks.
• Russia’s Kremlin spokesperson said preparations are underway for a Putin-Trump conversation, while it stated that a Putin-Zelensky meeting could happen but only if certain agreements are reached.
• Russian negotiators at Istanbul talks demanded that Ukraine withdraw troops from all Ukrainian regions claimed by Moscow before a ceasefire can start, while they also demanded international recognition that five Ukrainian regions are Russian, neutrality for Ukraine, and no reparations, according to a Ukrainian official familiar with the talks.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky met with US VP Vance and Secretary of State Rubio on the sidelines of the Pope’s inauguration.
• Ukraine’s military said Kyiv was under a long-lasting drone attack. It was also reported that Ukrainian military intelligence agency said Russia plans to conduct a ‘training and combat’ launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile late on Sunday to intimidate Ukraine and the West.

Geopolitics: Other

• Turkish President Erdogan said it is possible to say that US sanctions on the Turkish defence sector have eased somewhat, while he added that NATO allies US and Turkey should not have restrictions in the defence sector.
• Taiwan Coast Guard said it does not rule out China launching political warfare to disrupt public morale ahead of President Lai’s inauguration anniversary on Tuesday.

US Event Calendar

• 10:00 am: Apr Leading Index, est. -0.94%, prior -0.7%

Central Banks Speakers

• 8:30 am: Fed’s Bostic Gives Opening Remarks
• 8:45 am: Fed’s Jefferson Gives Keynote, Bostic Moderates
• 8:45 am: Fed’s Williams Speaks in Moderated Discussion
• 1:15 pm: Fed’s Logan Gives Remarks, Moderates Panel
• 1:30 pm: Fed’s Kashkari Participates in Q&A
• 2:45 pm: Fed’s Bostic on Bloomberg TV

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

In terms of heartwarming domestic news this morning, regular readers will remember my daughter Maisie suffered from Perthes disease between the ages of 5 and 7, spending months on crutches and then over a year in a wheelchair after a major operation. Her hip ball had disintegrated and there was no guarantee it would regrow or would regrow in the right shape. It could have been a childhood of limping and constant pain. However we were fortunate it did regrow while in the chair and over the last 2 and a half years she’s got stronger and stronger with the only thing we don’t allow being trampolining. Therefore imagine our immense surprise when last week she got picked to represent her school at the long jump in an U9 event with five other schools! I couldn’t have imagined anything less likely three years ago. My wife and I were a bit nervous about letting her do it but in the end she came second. She swims four times a week for her artistic swimming club and I can only think this has done her a world of good in terms of strength. So we were delighted for her, especially given all she went through.

In terms of what the market has been through in recent weeks, I think we could all do with a lie down and there are some hopes of that this week given the scarcity of front line data. However as we know the headlines will keep coming, especially with regards to trade.

It‘s likely that fiscal developments in Washington will take centre stage with the House expected to vote on its reconciliation package this week just as Moody’s removed the US’s last remaining triple-A rating late on Friday night. As our economists discussed last week (see “Tax bill details suggest still-elevated deficits in the near term’), though the specific components of additional tax cuts on top of the TCJA extension differed from what they had previously outlined (see “US outlook: Tariff-struck”), the JCT score of the Ways and Means mark-up was largely in line with our top-line deficit assumptions. Assuming House Republicans are able to resolve their outstanding policy disagreements and vote on the tax package this week, the Senate will then start to mark up the bill, where even more policy disagreements await. One thing stands out though, and that is that at this stage there are no signs of any serious deficit restraint.

On that topic, Moody’s cut the US credit rating on Friday night from Aaa to Aa1 (stable outlook). This is a major symbolic move as Moody’s were the last of the major rating agencies to have the US at the top rating. Moody’s have had them on watch since November 2023 and if there is going to be a change then it tends to happen within 12-18 months so this news shouldn’t have been unexpected. Remember S&P was the first to downgrade the US from AAA back in August 2011 which brought a brief market panic at the time. The S&P 500 fell -6.7% on August 8th (the Monday after the cut) while Treasuries actually rallied 20bps on a flight to quality bid. A slightly different reaction this time given they are “only” playing catch-up on one hand, but with debt sustainability now more of a concern on the other. 10yr USTs spiked +4bps in very late trading on Friday on the news. This morning 10 and 30yr USTs are another +3.8bps and +5.2bps higher, respectively, with the latter now at 5% again and +10bps higher than just before the announcement late on Friday. If we stay at these levels this would be a higher yield than that seen at the worst close after Liberation Day. In fact it’s only just over 10bps below the highest point in 2023 when inflation concerns were still bubbling. Prior to that you’d have to go back to 2007 to see 30yr yields higher than current levels.

S&P 500 (-1.0%) and NASDAQ (-1.27%) futures are also weaker on the news along with the Dollar (-0.26%). Mixed China data isn’t helping the general Asia mood with Retail Sales growth slowing to +5.1% y/y in April, falling short of Bloomberg’s forecast of +5.8% and down from +5.9% in the previous month. Fixed-asset investment for the first four months of this year increased by +4.0%, slightly below the anticipated +4.2%. The real estate sector continues to exert downward pressure on fixed asset investment, with a year-on-year decline of -10.3% as of April. Nevertheless, industrial production has exceeded expectations, growing by +6.1% y/y in April, compared to the expected +5.7%, although this represents a slowdown from the +7.7% increase recorded last month.

In the region, the KOSPI is the most affected equity market, down by -1.23% this morning, while the Nikkei (-0.74%), the Hang Seng (-0.49%), the CSI (-0.38%), and the S&P/ASX 200 (-0.62%) are also lower.

The flash global PMIs for May released on Thursday will be the main data focal point this week given that it should fully cover a period of trade uncertainty. European numbers are expected to edge up with US numbers broadly flat. 

Elsewhere inflation in Canada (tomorrow), the UK (Wednesday – preview here) and Japan (Friday – preview here) will be of note. Other things to watch are the RBA decision tomorrow, where DB expect a 25bps cut (preview here), the account of the April ECB decision, the German Ifo and US jobless claims, all on Thursday. This week’s jobless claims corresponds to payrolls survey week so it will allow us to refine our current +125k forecast for May. The full day-by-day week ahead is at the end as usual but there’s not a lot of high profile releases. There are though plenty of central bank speakers and these are also highlighted in that calendar. Many are speaking at the Atlanta Fed’s annual Financial Markets Conference in Amelia Island, Florida which starts today through to Thursday. Other things to note are the UK-EU summit will be in London today. Then tomorrow, G7 finance ministers and central bankers convene in Canada (through May 22) and the EU’s foreign and defence ministers meet in Brussels.

Recapping last week now and risk markets had another strong run with the S&P 500 up +5.27% as it advanced for all five days to post its second best weekly gain since 2023. The bulk of its gains came last Monday (+3.27%) as the US and China dramatically slashed their reciprocal tariff rates for 90 days. The Mag-7 (+9.30% on the week) led the recovery, with tech stocks also helped by a series of deals coming out of Trump’s Middle East tour. On Friday, Trump announced that the US would be “sending letters out” to 150 countries on its new tariff rates over the next two to three weeks. US equities responded positively to the news, with the S&P 500 up +0.70% on Friday. Although Bessent did explain to NBC over the weekend that those not negotiating in good faith will receive the letter with the rate announced on Liberation Day.

The positive backdrop last week saw the VIX index post a sixth consecutive weekly decline (-4.66pts) to its lowest level since mid-February at 17.24. Other risk assets also saw a strong week, with US HY credit spreads falling -38bps to 205bps. The gains were more moderate in Europe, with the STOXX 600 rising +2.10% (+0.42% Friday), while the DAX rose +1.14% (+0.30% Friday) to a new record high. By contrast, gold lost ground amid the risk-on mood, seeing its biggest weekly decline since November (-3.65%).

In the rates space investors pared back their expectations of Fed rate cuts, with the amount of cuts priced by December falling -16.5bps to 49bps on the week. This marks the first time since February that the market expects less than two Fed rate cuts in 2025 and the move came despite softer than expected US CPI and PPI data on Wednesday and Thursday. By contrast, the latest U. Mich survey data showed 1-year median inflation expectations shooting up to +7.3% (vs +6.5% expected), even as consumer sentiment fell to its second lowest level on record. 10yr Treasury yields rose for a third week running, up +10.0bps (+4.7bps Friday) to 4.48%, while 30yr yields rose +11.0bps to their highest weekly close since January at 4.94%. As discussed above, friday’s sell off in Treasuries was mostly due to a late spike on the Moody’s US downgrade news.

Lastly, European bonds saw more muted moves, with 10yr bund yields up +2.8bps to 2.59% (-3.1bps Friday), but OAT (-0.2bps) and BTP (-1.3bps) yields were marginally lower over the week as sovereign spreads continued to grind lower.

Authored by Luis Cornelio via Headline USA,

The House Judiciary Committee has zeroed in on a former Pfizer researcher following a Wall Street Journal report that the pharmaceutical company may have delayed positive COVID-19 vaccine trial results to influence the 2020 election.

On Thursday, the committee sent a letter to Philip Dormitzer, Pfizer’s former head of vaccine research and development, demanding all documents about his work on Pfizer’s vaccine trials from March 1, 2020 to present. The letter comes as federal prosecutors are also reportedly looking into the matter.

The allegation surfaced when Dormitzer told coworkers at his new employer, GSK, that Pfizer deliberately slowed clinical testing so it would not be complete until after the election

Positive results from the clinical trials may have given Trump a political boost. Instead, he left the White House in 2021—only to return in 2025.

🚨 HUGE 🚨

New Information Suggests Senior Pfizer Executives Conspired to Delay COVID-19 Vaccine Clinical Testing to Influence 2020 Election.

One exec was so scared about this being investigated that he asked to be relocated to Canada!

MASSIVE SCANDAL uncovered by @Jim_Jordan. pic.twitter.com/pZKLAz1Wmx

— House Judiciary GOP 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸 (@JudiciaryGOP) May 15, 2025

After Trump’s 2024 election, Dormitzer asked GSK to transfer him to Canada, fearing he might become a target of an investigation. When pressed on the reason, he replied, “Let’s just say it wasn’t a coincidence, the timing of the vaccine.” 

GSK later passed his comments to federal prosecutors in New York, as reported by The Journal in March. The House Judiciary swiftly stepped in and pressed GSK for more information about The Journal’s reporting. 

According to GSK’s answers to congressional investigators, Dormitzer claimed that “in late 2020, the three most senior people in Pfizer R&D were involved in a decision to deliberately slow down clinical testing so that it would not be complete prior to the results of the presidential election that year.” 

Dormitzer reportedly clarified that “this was not a situation of delaying disclosure of completed results but was a situation of slowing down results before disclosure became necessary.” 

Dormitzer has until May 29 to produce the requested documents and schedule his transcribed interview with the Committee.

Trump previously made similar claims that Pfizer withheld knowledge on its alleged vaccine success.

“The @US_FDA and the Democrats didn’t want to have me get a Vaccine WIN, prior to the election, so instead it came out five days later – As I’ve said all along!” Trump wrote on social media after the 2020 election.

The safety of the COVID vaccines have been speculated since it was released. 

There has been concerns that the vaccines could cause myocarditis.

A Freedom of Information Act on a myocarditis study was released in March 2024 and was entirely redacted.

Local Baltimore media outlets have reported that Under Armour founder Kevin Plank—who returned as CEO in April 2024—recently pledged his $2 million Georgetown rowhouse as collateral for a $15 million loan. Just three months earlier, Plank relisted his 400-acre equestrian farm in northern Baltimore County. At the time, we asked one very simple question: Is the billionaire CEO searching for liquidity?

The Baltimore Sun—once a far-left, woke newspaper but now showing signs of journalistic revival under new ownership—reported that the $15 million loan is intended to fund or acquire “a business or commercial investment.” The paper cited a deed of trust filed last week in Washington, D.C.

“The document makes no mention of specific investments in the filing with the district’s recorder of deeds,” The Sun wrote, adding Plank “signed the deed on May 9 in a deal to borrow $15 million from Breezewood DE LLC, a Denver-based limited liability company.” 

Shedding more light on the opaque world of high-net-worth lending—where anonymity and asset protection are often by design—a blog post from a local real estate team “Fox Homes Team” offers additional color, noting: 

At the center of this transaction is Breezewood DE LLC, a Wyoming-registered limited liability company with no clear public-facing identity. The LLC was formed by Kevin Walton, a Denver-based attorney with the law firm Snell & Wilmer. Curiously, the LLC’s mailing address traces back to the accounting firm Eide Bailly, also located in Denver—a layered structure that hints at deliberate opacity and financial insulation. This isn’t uncommon in the world of high-net-worth lending, where anonymity and asset protection are often baked into the very architecture of a deal.

What stands out most is the explicit wording in the deed: the loan is designated for “carrying on or acquiring a business or commercial investment.” That leaves a wide interpretive window—one that’s fueling curiosity across financial and real estate sectors. The ambiguity has sparked a flurry of speculation. Is this loan a vehicle for expanding Plank’s private investment firm, Sagamore Ventures? Is it tied to Under Armour’s restructuring strategy? Or is it a positioning move to take advantage of D.C.’s evolving commercial real estate lending climate in 2025?

Whatever the answer, the use of a historically significant Georgetown property as collateral signals more than liquidity needs—it’s a sophisticated financial tactic. The property isn’t just real estate; it’s equity in motion. And in this context, Georgetown’s value isn’t merely aesthetic—it’s fiscal leverage in one of the most discerning real estate markets in the nation.

The designation of the loan for “acquiring a business or commercial investment” suggests to us that it will be used for a financial transaction via Plank’s Sagamore Ventures, a privately held investment company managed by the Plank family and J. Kelly Dayton. Plank’s venture arm has diversified holdings in commercial real estate, hospitality, food, and beverage. 

Mapping Plank’s empire via publicly available data:

At first glance, Plank’s decision to collateralize his Georgetown home may seem unusual. But in reality, it’s a common strategy among high-net-worth individuals looking to secure lower-cost financing—especially in today’s environment of elevated interest rates, where swaps are only pricing in two 25-basis-point cuts by year-end.

Outside of whatever the Plank family may invest in next around the Baltimore metro area, the prospect of continuing to pour money into an imploding state—controlled by woke leftists in Annapolis—seems increasingly risky.

Decades of regime-style Democratic rule have culminated in a series of rolling crises: the first credit downgrade in half a century, massive deficits, violent crime, an energy crisis, homelessness, an opioid crisis, an illegal alien invasion, and a lopsided economy heavily dependent on government spending. Taken together, these issues risk transforming Maryland into “Illinois 2.0” by the end of the decade—triggering a deeper exodus of residents and businesses.

Last spring, Plank hosted a private fundraiser for far-left Governor Wes Moore—whose tenure has been nothing short of a disaster for Maryland.

We get that Plank and his inner circle have to play the game of local politics in a state run by Marxist Democrats. But seriously…

In markets, Under Armour is still undergoing a restructuring process, with shares down 19% (as of Friday’s close) on the year.

Certain vehicles tend to show up in crash statistics more often than others, but why?

There are many factors that play a role in how frequently a model is involved in accidents, including driver demographics, size, and even color.

In this infographic, Visual Capitalist’s Marcus Lu ranks America’s most accident prone car models using data compiled by Insurify.

Data and Discussion

The car models with the highest accident rates in 2024 are listed in the table below. Note that this is a slightly longer top 50 list.

Most major automakers have at least one model on the list, but several premium brands—such as Mercedes-Benz, Porsche, and Cadillac—are absent.

Are EVs More Likely to Get Into Accidents?

While we can’t come to a conclusion based on this dataset, it is interesting to note that there are several EV models at the top of the ranking.

This includes the Kia Soul EV (#1), the Chevrolet Bolt EUV (#3), Bolt EV (#8) and Volt (#11), the Volkswagen ID.4 (#5), and the Kia EV6 (#15).

A likely reason for this could be the way electric motors deliver instant torque, which may surprise drivers who are used to the more gradual power curve of gasoline engines.

Here’s something else to consider: research from 2024 found that EVs were 4% more likely to have an at-fault insurance claim compared to gasoline cars.

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out The Best Selling Car in Every State in 2024 on Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist.