The former Biden administration’s claim to have added nearly 400,000 jobs from July to September of 2024, is being scrutinized after new data released by the Labor Department suggests that none of those jobs ever existed.
Bean counters under the former Biden administration published optimistic estimates for everything from job growth to the size of the economy, only to quietly walk those numbers back and revise them down to more realistic results afterward.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) calculates monthly the estimated number of non-farm payrolls as well as making revisions for its last two months’ estimates.
Townhall reports that, under the Biden administration, the revisions were typically abnormal in magnitude and direction and required significant revision downward.
During the third quarter of 2024, the monthly job reports showed an increase of 399,000 jobs.
But with more comprehensive quarterly data being released by the Business Employment Dynamics (BED) survey, the new numbers had to be revised to show a 1,000 job decline during that same period.
The more comprehensive quarterly reports are used to create an annual benchmark figure which adjusts 12 months of jobs data to make the report as accurate as possible.
The annual benchmark figures are published each March and this year’s annual benchmark figures for the period between March 2023 and March 2024 showed a staggering loss of 598,000 non-farm payroll jobs.
Those downward revisions are expected to continue as more of the Biden-era jobs data is released.
From March through June of 2024, the economy supposedly added 398,000 nonfarm payrolls, according to the monthly job reports.
However, the BED data shows a net loss of 163,000 private sector jobs during that time period.
Instead of adding nearly 800,000 jobs during the middle of last year, the economy likely lost 160,000 of them instead.
The Democrats were insistent that the economy was doing great under Biden, but the voters refused to be gaslit about the economic pain they’ve been feeling and voted accordingly.
Houthis Again Target Israel’s International Airport With Ballistic Missile
The Houthis have responded to Israel’s major Friday airstrikes on sites across Yemen by launching two ballistic missiles at Ben Gurion Airport near Tel Aviv.
The Israeli military announced Sunday morning the intercept of at least one inbound ballistic missile, saying there were no injuries or casualties from the attack, only light injuries of people clamoring into bomb shelters.
“Sirens had sounded across central Israel, including in Tel Aviv, and the Shfela and Sharon regions, sending nearly a million residents scrambling to bomb shelters,” Times of Israel reports.
“Preceding the sirens by some five minutes, an early warning was issued to residents, alerting civilians of the long-range missile attack via a push notification on their phones,” the report continues.
Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree later confirmed in a statement the group’s intent to strike Ben Gurion international airport again, after earlier this month scoring a direct hit.
Crucially, he warned that Ansarallah (the Houthis) will keep up these attacks until the “siege is lifted” – in reference to Gaza. Already, the United States military has withdrawn from engaging the Houthis, after President Trump said a ceasefire had been agreed to.
As for the new missile attack, the IDF said its air defenses shot down the missile at around 2am. The second Houthis missile is believed to have likely fallen far short of its target, perhaps landing in the desert. Iranian state media had described it as a ‘hypersonic missile’ launch – though this seems dubious.
All of this means there will likely be more Israeli attacks on Yemen to come. “The IDF now struck and severely damaged the ports in Yemen that are under the control of the Houthi terror group. The airport in Sanaa also remains destroyed,” Israeli Defense Minister Katz said Friday.
“As we said, if the Houthis continue to fire missiles on Israel, they will suffer painful blows, and we will also strike the heads of terror just as we did to Deif and the Sinwars in Gaza, to Nasrallah in Beirut and Haniyeh in Tehran,” he added.
And so it looks as if each side will continue trading tit-for-tat blows, but civilians will continue to suffer – and civilian aviation in the whole region could be impacted.
Israel has vowed to decapitate Houthi leadership, saying it will hunt down and eliminate Abdul-Malik al-Houthi in Yemen, along with his top military officials.
But short of an actual ground war, which Israel doesn’t have the stomach for – also given ongoing Gaza operations – taking out Houthi leadership and infrastructure will be easier said than done.
On Friday, the U.S. lost its last perfect credit rating as Moody’s downgraded it from ‘AAA’ to ‘Aa1,’ citing decades of rising deficits and interest costs. This ends a perfect rating streak held since 1917. Moody’s had warned in 2023 that a downgrade was possible, following similar moves by Fitch in 2023 and S&P in 2011.
The layers of irony behind this downgrade—and its timing—aren’t lost on me.
It’s a farce, really. By the logic Moody’s is now applying, the downgrade should have happened a decade ago, when it became painfully clear that the U.S. had a crippling spending addiction, compounded by a monetary ideology that essentially tried to reverse the fundamental laws of debits and credits.
Yes, it’s bad enough that the U.S. now carries $37 trillion in debt. But what’s worse is that, despite this massive burden, deficits have continued to grow—clear proof that we’ve learned nothing about fiscal restraint. Our refusal to stop putting everything on the national credit card, and our complete disregard for basic math and economic reality, should have triggered multiple downgrades over the past decade.
But the real kicker isn’t just the reckless spending—it’s our full embrace of Modern Monetary Theory, which doesn’t just ignore this irresponsibility but actively encourages it. Yet, somehow, Moody’s didn’t see a problem with monetary policy anytime before Friday.
To quote Peter Gibbons in Office Space:
“It’s not that I’m lazy, it’s that I just don’t care.”
Every time Paul Krugman wrote another column or Stephanie Kelton published a new book—and then got a national media platform to promote it—the U.S. deserved a downgrade.
Every time the Federal Reserve and the people responsible for advocating asinine monetary theory put on full display their inability to understand the economy or forecast economic events, it should have sent a message to rating agencies that the country is flying blind when it comes to fiscal and monetary policy, and that we deserved a downgrade.
When Ben Bernanke publicly said things like “we can print money at no cost,” the country should have been downgraded.
When Bernanke said the subprime crisis was “contained”, before it caused the collapse of the entire global economy, we should have been downgraded.
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Every time a Fed governor like Neel Kashkari went on national television to declare that the Federal Reserve had “infinite money,” we should have been downgraded.
When Janet Yellen kept interest rates at 0% for years despite a roaring U.S. economy that was clearly no longer in need of unlimited stimulus, the country should have been downgraded.
And every time an analyst, famous investor, government official, or Fed member incorrectly claimed that inflation was transitory when it wasn’t, the country should have been downgraded.
No, it wasn’t just the backwards monetary policy we embraced to make ourselves feel better about our financial irresponsibility that should have led to downgrades; it was also the ongoing parade of public gaffes and humiliations by everyone associated with the Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve over the last two decades.
This put on full display to everyone in the world who was paying attention—apparently except the rating agencies—that we were on a treacherous path, destined to end in a catch-22.
Moody’s analyst
I used to write often not just about the Biden administration’s fiscal irresponsibility, but also about the fact that they didn’t even pretend to care about financial responsibility.
The Biden administration never even talked about the idea of making cuts or balancing the budget—the bare minimum any administration can do. Simply talking about fiscal discipline is often enough politically; you don’t even have to deliver results. But the Biden administration couldn’t even manage that.
And then along comes the Trump administration, running on the idea of trying to rein in spending and taking on the Herculean task of, at least in some small way, addressing the nation’s out-of-control deficit. There’s been talk about recalibrating global trade. There have been attempts—however slow—to curb spending through DOGE’s effort. And there’s been a focus on getting the country’s financial house and deficit back in order for the first time in at least a decade.
Only now, as the torch passes to the administration which, at the very least, is at least talking about balancing the budget and taking some steps toward it—Moody’s shows up and casually downgrades the country’s credit rating. Here’s the timing of the downgrade on a chart, in a way that only Zero Hedge can do:
Chart: Zero Hedge
Honestly, I don’t know whether to laugh at the fact that this didn’t happen a decade ago or at the fact that they waited until now—when balancing the budget is finally part of the national conversation—to do it. Either way, the downgrade is as hollow and performative as politicians jawboning about fiscal responsibility with no real intention of acting on it.
I’m not saying Moody’s was wrong, I’m saying it doesn’t matter. The U.S. has already set its course. One way or another, we’ll keep printing more money and relying on the dollar’s status as the global reserve currency to futilely prop up our standard of living.
There might be some adjustments in trade policy or spending, but our general trajectory was set after 2000, locked in after 2008, and supercharged by the unprecedented quantitative easing during COVID, when we simply papered over the entire economy with new cash, only to be befuddled by where excess inflation came from. Make no mistake: any time there’s financial instability going forward, the U.S. will print money first and ask questions later. And whatever Moody’s or any other rating agency has to say about it is irrelevant.
Long ago, we embarked on an unprecedented monetary policy experiment. And the outcomes will be just as unprecedented. That means neither you, nor I, nor the same rating agencies that were all but complicit in the subprime housing crisis, can predict how this ends.
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Vance & Zelensky Repair Relationship In ‘Good’ Vatican Meeting
Amid ongoing efforts to reset the relationship between Washington and Kiev, US Vice President JD Vance met with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky and his top aides in Rome on Sunday.
Crucially, this is the first time Zelensky and Vance have met since their blow-up in the White House in February. The pointed exchange had even led to Trump very briefly suspending weapons deliveries and intelligence-sharing with Ukraine.
But both of them this weekend were in Rome for the newly installed Pope Leo XIV’s inauguration mass at the Vatican. Zelensky had also met with the Pope after the Sunday service at St. Peter’s.
As for the Zelensky-Vance encounter, the Ukrainian leader hailed that it was a “good meeting”. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio was also present.
“We discussed the negotiations in Istanbul, where the Russians sent a low-level delegation with no decision-making authority,” Zelensky said.
“I reaffirmed Ukraine’s readiness for real diplomacy and stressed the importance of a full and unconditional ceasefire as soon as possible,” he added.
“We also touched on the need for sanctions against Russia, bilateral trade, defense cooperation, the situation on the battlefield, and the future exchange of prisoners. Pressure on Russia must continue until it is ready to stop the war,” Zelensky’s description of the meeting continued. “And, of course, we discussed our joint steps to achieve a just and sustainable peace.”
The Trump White House has indeed been dangling the prospect of more anti-Moscow sanctions, in the scenario that the US deems Putin’s engagement in peace negotiations insufficient.
So far, Zelensky is trying to make the case that the Kremlin is just stringing Trump along, playing the peace game just enough to buy more time as it makes slow gains on the battlefield.
The Pope himself has meanwhile been urgently calling for peace in Ukraine, among other global hotspots. Interestingly, Washington could be eyeing Rome as a venue for more talks to achieve peace:
A day before the event, Rubio said that the Vatican could serve as a neutral venue for future peace negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow.
Speaking in Rome before his meeting with Cardinal Matteo Zuppi, the Vatican’s envoy on Ukraine, Rubio noted that “both sides would be comfortable” holding talks there.
Below: most analysts agree that the Istanbul talks resulted in no breakthrough, and that the process is still largely at a ‘stalled’ point.
This analysis captures the unfortunate result of the US letting Russia deflect the drive for a ceasefire. Tomorrow’s phone calls – Trump-Putin, Trump-Zelenskyy, & possibly Trump/Zelenskyy with key Europeans – could improve the trajectory, if the Trump pushes Putin. https://t.co/6n4yFVRC70
The pope last week appeared to be very open to this, telling an audience in some of his first public words since becoming Pontiff that he carries the “suffering of the beloved people of Ukraine” in his heart and called for an “authentic and lasting peace.”
Mayor Eric Adams confirmed that two out of the 19 injured died. Police believe a “mechanical malfunction” and power cut had caused the collision.
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said she was deeply saddened by the loss of the crew members.
The Cuauhtémoc, which measures 297 feet long and 40 feet wide, sailed for the first time in 1982. The ship’s masts were 158ft tall, while the Brooklyn Bridge has a 135 foot clearance.
* * *
Approximately 20 people were injured when a Mexican navy ship carrying at least 200 people collided with the Brooklyn Bridge Saturday night, snapping its three masts and sending crew members flying through the air – with some left swinging in harnesses for ‘at least like 15 minutes’ according to an eyewitness.
The vessel, the Cuauhtémoc, is a sail training vessel that was about to leave New York for a goodwill tour to Iceland when the incident occurred. Video showed heavy traffic on the bridge during the collision.
On the scene was 23-year-old Nick Corso, who whipped his phone out to capture the action – telling AP it sounded like a “big twig” had snapped, and that the scene was “pandemonium.”
“I didn’t know what to think, I was like, is this a movie?” he told the outlet.
The Mexican Navy tall ship Cuauhtémoc sailed into New York Tuesday, with 277 sailors aboard.
This is the same ship that crashed into the Brooklyn Bridge tonight.
More:pic.twitter.com/nflRPALTTW
The ship was secured by a tugboat between the Brooklyn and Manhattan bridges following the collision.
At least 19 people were injured, including four with “serious” injuries, according to New York City Mayor Eric Adams – while the Mexican navy puts the count at 22 injured, 19 of whom needed medical treatment.
“We saw someone dangling, and I couldn’t tell if it was just blurry or my eyes, and we were able to zoom in on our phone and there was someone dangling from the harness from the top for like at least like 15 minutes before they were able to rescue them,” a bystander, Lily Katz, told AP.
Opened in 1883, the Brooklyn Bridge has a main span of nearly 1,600 feet, supported by two masonry towers. Over 100,000 vehicles and an estimated 32,000 pedestrians use the bridge every day, according to the city’s transportation department.
There are few historical examples of such a massive about-face for an industry, from banks debanking crypto businesses to now embracing stablecoins. If you talk to most crypto startup founders or companies with crypto on the balance sheet, they will all have war stories about finding, applying for and maintaining bank accounts.
Over the past three years, over half of debanking complaints have been lodged against four American banks — Bank of America, JPMorgan, Wells Fargo and Citibank. Now, as the policies that discriminated against the crypto industry, like “Operation Chokepoint 2.0” and the recision of controversial accounting rule SAB 121, have been repealed, a new openness to blockchain technology from the finance sector is possible.
It is imperative that the banking industry stop shunning crypto and start — at least understanding it — to stay competitive. How stablecoins are deployed will separate the banking winners and losers.
From debanking to stablecoins
Of course, stablecoins are not a new concept. For years, large institutions like JPMorgan and Santander have experimented with stablecoins and blockchains. Those experiments were around small functions like internal treasury reconciliation and interbank settlement. Much of this was also on private blockchains created by those banks. Implementing digital dollars on private chains, however, misses out on the core innovation of stablecoins.
While the use case of stablecoins for international remittances is clear, we are just scratching the surface of the power of stablecoins on public networks. For example, stablecoins eradicate unauthorized payment disputes and enable far faster pay cycles.
Payroll payments are also complex. Payday is a web of thousands of automated clearing houses, wires, comma-separated values and PDFs. The programmability of stablecoins enables companies to create efficiency among all these data structures, processing times, reconciliations and paycheck reporting.
Many smaller banks are just now waking up to the opportunity to incorporate permissionless, public network stablecoins into their workflows. Similar to how many businesses started to investigate how AI might change their businesses with the 2022 release of ChatGPT, so too are banks needing to look at how stablecoins will upend money movement.
Recently, Custodia Bank issued its own stablecoin, Avit, on Ethereum. Custodia’s users can access quick, cheap banking services that are hard to beat. This is an excellent example of implementation for other financial institutions to follow.
Stablecoin adoption is increasing as the tech keeps improving
Stablecoin infrastructure has improved significantly, and there is increased confidence in the security of stablecoins. 91% of the supply of stablecoins is fiat-backed, and only 8.5% are backed by collateralized crypto assets. Riskier algorithmic stablecoins have gone out of vogue.
Incremental changes also make it easier for non-crypto businesses to use stablecoins. There are now simple solutions for many of the original UX problems with stablecoins.
Additionally, more assets are moving onchain. Using stablecoins on public networks like Ethereum, payment companies will be better prepared to serve the future financial system. It’s not just stablecoins that are updating the financial system, either. Earlier this year, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said on Squawk Box he wants the SEC to “rapidly approve the tokenization of bonds and stocks.”
For banks looking for a competitive advantage in a world of powerful fintechs, shifting interest rates and lower consumer savings, using the power of stablecoins to improve their products and their internal operations might be the most powerful decision they make.
EU Establishment Fumes As “Far Right” Romanian Candidate Closes In On Presidential Win
When EU backed officials in Romania fabricated the accusation that right leaning presidential candidate Calin Georgescu was only popular because of a Russian disinformation operation on social media, the most common assumption was that this was purely a political stunt to draw voters away from his campaign. Instead, the establishment surprised many around the world with Georgescu’s arrest and eventual disqualification from the race.
To this day there is still no concrete evidence that Russia had any hand in the candidate’s campaign or made any measurable effort to sway the election in his favor.
At bottom, Georgescu was the clear favorite to win exactly because he was a populist, nationalist and wanted to keep Romania out of the Ukraine conflict. This is what the Romanian people want. However, the qualities that endeared him to the public were also the qualities that made him a target for removal. The strategy has only resulted in even greater defiance by the voters and given a clear boost to George Simion, the conservative alternative.
Georgescu has thrown his support behind Simion, a self proclaimed fan of MAGA and a staunch opponent of Romanian involvement in Ukraine. Simion recently crushed the existing government coalition in the do-over elections, causing Romania’s Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu to resign. The final election, slated for this Sunday, will finally end the chaos of the uncertain election process.
As critics of the action to stifle the populist movement point out, the government only seems to have made voters more galvanized against the status quo. It’s clear that the progressive multiculturalist seat of power in Europe is fading, and they are willing to use any authoritarian means necessary to “save democracy”.
The problem is that the more the European Union squeezes their fist around member nations, the more countries end up slipping through their fingers. Simion’s odds of winning the election are high. High enough, in fact, that the progressive media has unleashed a rancid flood of swampy propaganda attacking the candidate in preparation of his likely victory.
Within the past two days we have seen some incredibly biased and manipulative headlines.
The Guardian says: ‘Between a mathematician and a Trump-loving hooligan’: Romania’s stark presidential choice
From the Washington Post: A Russian-stoked protest movement lifts a MAGA-like populist in Romania
From Politico: Romania’s Simion wants a broad coalition. Good luck with that.
From The New York Times (in reference to Simion’s possible win): Romania Is About to Experience Disaster
From Foreign Policy: Romania’s Far Right Is More Extreme Than You Think
This is not journalism, this is agit-prop for the globalist oligarchy. CNN only referred to Simion as “A MAGA Courting Populist”, which is generally true, but in their tiny leftist minds this accusation alone is a kind irredeemable condemnation.
The reaction from the corporate media in the west reveals how valuable Romania is for the future plans of NATO and the EU. Sitting directly on Ukraine’s southwest border with access to the Black Sea, Romania would be a key strategic position in a future war with Russia should Europe be insane enough to pursue a conflict. There is also the matter of the European population becoming increasingly disenchanted with the progressive elites in power. Their open border policies and carbon controls have nearly destroyed most of the union and left it in third world shambles.
A win for populists in Romania could herald even greater wins by other nationalist parties across the continent in the next few years.
U.S. Space Force Chief of Space Operations Gen. B. Chance Saltzman said the United States’ potential adversaries Russia and China have demonstrated a “recklessness” and aggressiveness that show how much a space-related conflict could escalate, particularly through actions in the war in Ukraine.
“You see a tremendous use of space capabilities on the modern battlefield,” Saltzman said at the Politico Security Summit on May 15.
“Denying a country access to their space capabilities does create [a] military advantage.”
Common usage includes low-orbit interference, such as radio frequency satellite communications jamming, he said.
There is also ground interference of space capabilities, such as the cyberattack on Viasat, disabling internet access for tens of thousands in Ukraine and Europe, which coincided with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
“To me, that’s how that starts. Unfortunately, that may not be where they end,” Saltzman said.
“The PRC and Russia both have the capabilities to escalate that up to grabbing satellites, pulling them out of operational orbit … certainly missile technology and anti-satellite kinetic capabilities—it could also extend there.
“It can escalate to a more traditional kind of destructive form of combat.”
Russia has already demonstrated such escalation, he noted.
“Months before the invasion of Ukraine, they demonstrated a kinetic kill capability: an anti-satellite missile destroyed a satellite. This is 14 years after the PRC demonstrated the same thing,” he said.
“All the hazardous lessons of debris have been learned and talked about—and yet they still chose to destroy a satellite.
“You could argue that was for messaging purposes. Well, message received: This is a war-fighting domain and you intend to be aggressive and demonstrate that capability, so now we’re going to think about how we’re going to respond.
“And then this idea of putting a nuclear weapon into orbit. The Russians are demonstrating reckless, aggressive behaviors with regards to how they intend to contest the space domain that will have far-reaching impacts beyond any localized military effect.”
When it comes to the Chinese regime, Saltzman said his biggest concern is the speed at which its military implements space capabilities.
“The PRC has developed what we tongue-in-cheek call a ‘kill web.’ It’s nothing more than a series of hundreds of satellites that are a sensor network that provide real-time updates targeting quality information of our force,” he said.
That would mean, for example, that in moving forces into the Western Pacific, the soldiers would come under “this umbrella of a very accurate, very long range set of weapons,” or the kill web, “before they’re in a position to do anything in terms of meeting military objectives,” he said.
“This is a huge problem,” he said.
“The Indo-Pacific is where we see this more acutely.
“There is no question that space is a critical national security interest.”
Space capability is a high priority for the Trump administration. In January, the president issued his “Golden Dome” executive order, calling for a sophisticated anti-missile shield for the United States in which the Space Force would play a key role.
The Defense Intelligence Agency published its “Golden Dome” report on May 13, which highlights emerging threats and names China and Russia as potential adversaries working on exploiting gaps in U.S. ballistic missile defenses.
Defense Department officials also met with U.S. senators to discuss the initiative and budget on May 15.
‘Pandemonium’: Sailors Go Flying As Mexican Navy Smashes Into Brooklyn Bridge
Approximately 20 people were injured when a Mexican navy ship carrying at least 200 people collided with the Brooklyn Bridge Saturday night, snapping its three masts and sending crew members flying through the air – with some left swinging in harnesses for ‘at least like 15 minutes’ according to an eyewitness.
The vessel, the Cuauhtémoc, is a sail training vessel that was about to leave New York for a goodwill tour to Iceland when the incident occurred. Video showed heavy traffic on the bridge during the collision.
On the scene was 23-year-old Nick Corso, who whipped his phone out to capture the action – telling AP it sounded like a “big twig” had snapped, and that the scene was “pandemonium.”
“I didn’t know what to think, I was like, is this a movie?” he told the outlet.
The Mexican Navy tall ship Cuauhtémoc sailed into New York Tuesday, with 277 sailors aboard.
This is the same ship that crashed into the Brooklyn Bridge tonight.
More:pic.twitter.com/nflRPALTTW
The ship was secured by a tugboat between the Brooklyn and Manhattan bridges following the collision.
At least 19 people were injured, including four with “serious” injuries, according to New York City Mayor Eric Adams – while the Mexican navy puts the count at 22 injured, 19 of whom needed medical treatment.
“We saw someone dangling, and I couldn’t tell if it was just blurry or my eyes, and we were able to zoom in on our phone and there was someone dangling from the harness from the top for like at least like 15 minutes before they were able to rescue them,” a bystander, Lily Katz, told AP.
Opened in 1883, the Brooklyn Bridge has a main span of nearly 1,600 feet, supported by two masonry towers. Over 100,000 vehicles and an estimated 32,000 pedestrians use the bridge every day, according to the city’s transportation department.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban revealed after a meeting with the Defense Council that Ukraine is meddling in the ongoing Hungarian referendum over whether to support Ukraine’s EU membership plans.
He also accused the opposition of unprecedentedly colluding with them.
This coincided with Hungary reportedly downing a Ukrainian drone, which followed tit-for-tat diplomatic expulsions after Ukraine accused Hungary of spying on it and Hungary accused Ukraine of pushing hostile propaganda.
The larger context concerns Hungary’s principled refusal to send arms to Ukraine or allow its territory to be used by others to that end due to its pro-peace policy. As can be evinced above, it’s also against Ukraine joining the EU, the reason being that Ukraine discriminates against the Hungarian minority in Zakarpattia/Transcarpathia. Even though Orban has repeatedly explained how the aforesaid policies align with Hungarian national interests, Zelensky and many in the West accuse him of being Putin’s puppet.
This was the tacit pretext upon which Ukraine let a gas deal with Russia lapse at the start of the year to the detriment of downstream customers like Hungary and Slovakia, the second of which began following in Budapest’s geopolitical footsteps after Prime Minister Roberto Fico’s return to power in late 2023. Ukraine’s move was therefore clearly meant to punish them for their pro-peace policies, which Ukraine believes undermine European unity towards the conflict and could one day obstruct EU financial aid.
The latest tensions are more troubling than any of the aforesaid since they concern security issues. Mutual mistrust was boiling for a while as detailed above but it’s now taking on a new dimension. Given their deteriorating ties since 2022, it was to be expected that they’d spy on each other, but few could have expected Ukraine’s innuendo that Hungary might be preparing an invasion and Hungary’s innuendo that Ukraine might try to orchestrate a Color Revolution. These claims deserve to be scrutinized.
Ukraine’s build upon smears that Hungary is a Russian proxy and might therefore be ordered to open a “second front” sometime in the future on the pretext of protecting its co-ethnics. While they’re indeed being discriminated against, the costs of a Hungarian military intervention in their support far outweigh the benefits. Hungary would ostracize itself from the West, open itself up to crippling sanctions and possibly even allied attack, and have to incorporate or forcibly expel Zakarpattia’s Ukrainian population.
Hungary’s claims are more believable since Ukraine already behaves as a Western proxy. Former Defense Minister Alexei Reznikov boasted in January 2023 that “We’re carrying out NATO’s mission today, without shedding their blood.” The Wall Street Journal then reported in March 2024 that Ukraine was fighting Russia in Sudan, while last summer, a GUR official claimed credit for a deadly Tuareg attack on Wagner in Mali. It thus wouldn’t be surprising if Ukraine is helping the West undermine Russian-friendly Orban.
With this insight in mind, Ukraine is much more of a credible threat to Hungary than the inverse.
In fact, Ukraine might exploit the latest tensions as the pretext for ramping up pressure on Hungary, which could in turn prompt more European countries to do the same.
Any legal action against the Hungarian opposition for their collusion with the Ukrainian special services might also lead to serious EU sanctions. Hungary must therefore brace itself for major meddling ahead of next year’s parliamentary elections.
