Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

Officials from three states said on June 12 that pregnant women should still be able to receive COVID-19 vaccines, diverging from updated guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Health officials with California, Oregon, and Washington state said in a joint statement that they “continue to recommend all individuals age 6 months and older should have access and the choice to receive currently authorized COVID-19 vaccines, with an emphasis on protecting higher risk individuals, such as infants and toddlers, pregnant individuals, and others with risks for serious disease.”

The CDC in May updated its immunization schedule for adults, removing a COVID-19 vaccine recommendation for pregnant women. Insurers typically only cover vaccines that are on immunization schedules, according to the American Academy of Family Physicians and other organizations.

The CDC also removed a recommendation for healthy children to receive a COVID-19 vaccine, although the childhood immunization schedule states that “where the parent presents with a desire for their child to be vaccinated, children 6 months and older may receive COVID-19 vaccination, informed by the clinical judgment of a healthcare provider and personal preference and circumstances.”

Officials have for several years been directing vaccine manufacturers to update their formulations on an annual basis. The CDC had been advising people to receive a shot each year, regardless of prior vaccination and infection.

Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. said the changes were made because there is no clinical data to support a “repeat booster strategy.”

Wisconsin officials soon after said they were keeping in place COVID-19 vaccine recommendations for all individuals aged 6 months and older. Kirsten Johnson, Wisconsin’s health secretary, said that the current version of the vaccine “continues to be an important tool in preventing severe illness and death.” The Wisconsin Department of Health and Human Services has not responded to requests for citations.

“Under the leadership of Secretary Kennedy, HHS is restoring the doctor-patient relationship. If a parent desires their healthy child to be vaccinated, their decision should be based on informed consent through the clinical judgement of their healthcare provider,” a spokesperson for the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) told The Epoch Times in an email.

“Secretary Kennedy has been clear: rebuilding trust in public health starts with transparency, medical autonomy, and access to unbiased information. Americans deserve to make health decisions based on their individual circumstances—not under pressure from politicized institutions or rigid, one-size-fits-all mandates.”

In the new statement, California, Oregon, and Washington state officials said that they “are committed to continuing to work with medical experts, professional organizations, and public health partners to ensure our recommendations reflect the best available science and safeguard the health of all of our residents.”

The officials noted that some medical groups, including the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists, recently expressed concern over the CDC’s removal of the COVID-19 vaccine recommendation for pregnant women.

“The COVID-19 vaccine is safe during pregnancy, and vaccination can protect our patients and their infants after birth,” Dr. Steven Fleischman, president of the college, said in a statement.

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration, which clears vaccines, says in package inserts for the three available COVID-19 vaccines that available data on the shots administered to pregnant women “are insufficient to inform vaccine-associated risks in pregnancy.” Known side effects of the vaccines include heart inflammation and severe allergic shock.

Apart from differing over the updated advice for pregnant women, the state officials said they are advising people to follow the CDC immunization schedules.

Update(1026ET): Below is Fox News’ chief national security correspondent Jennifer Griffin confirming a major breaking development:

CONFIRMED: The USS Nimitz aircraft carrier strike group is on its way to the Middle East from the South China Sea, a U.S. official tells Fox News. The Nimitz was previously scheduled to replace the USS Carl Vinson carrier strike group which has been deployed for several months, but is now heading to the Middle East ahead of schedule. The two will now be in the Middle East at the same time. The USS Nimitz is the oldest active aircraft carrier in the U.S. Navy, commissioned on May 3, 1975. Scheduled to be decommissioned in 2026, this is possibly its final sea voyage. This is a very significant symbolic deployment because it was deployed in 1980 and its helicopters that were part of the failed US effort known as Operation Eagle Claw to rescue the American hostages being held at the US Embassy in Tehran. The US has been in a shadow war against Iran ever since. 

This comes on the heels of reports that the US Embassy in Tel Aviv suffered “minor damage” from a nearby Iranian ballistic missile impact.

* * *

Update(1008ET): Everything is suddenly exploding higher – also with gold and oil dropping – especially on the following WSJ breaking report which suggests (dubiously, we should add…) that the Iranians are ‘open’ to returning to the negotiating table with Trump officials, even as ballistic missiles rain down on Israel, and as much of the Islamic Republic – particularly oil depots – burn…

“In the midst of a ferocious Israeli air campaign, Tehran has told Arab officials they would be open to return to the negotiating table as long as the U.S. doesn’t join the attack, the officials said. They also passed messages to Israel saying it is in the interest of both sides to keep the violence contained,” per WSJ on Monday.

Oil prices tumbling on the breaking report…

S&P 2% from ATH…

Gold has been falling since before the missile war started late on Thursday…

WSJ continues, “Iran has been urgently signaling that it seeks an end to hostilities and resumption of talks over its nuclear programs, sending messages to Israel and the U.S. via Arab intermediaries, Middle Eastern and European officials said.”

This comes also amid reports that dozens of US Air Force tankers have in the last hours taken off from the United States and headed towards Europe, as also confirmed in Flightradar24 and Air Live. Is Trump ready to join the Israeli side militarily? The Iranians fear so, it appears.

Iran’s message is that “it is in the interest of both sides to keep the violence contained” – according to an urgeng diplomatic message passed along. But at this point it seems clear that Israel is going for full regime decapitation, given also that reports say the Israel Air Force has total aerial dominance over Western Iran and skies above Tehran at this point. If these reports of an Iranian olive branch are accurate, is it too-little-too-late?

* * *

After another day on the receiving end of an Israeli war of aggression that began Friday, Iran delivered a major counterpunch overnight, further demonstrating that Israel’s highly-touted Iron Dome defense system is vulnerable to Iran’s hypersonic missiles. Upon completing a deadly barrage aimed at targets in Tel Aviv, Haifa and elsewhere, Iran claimed it had employed a “new method” that put Israel’s multi-layered defense system in disarray to the point its various systems targeted each other.  

⚡️🇮🇷🇮🇱JUST IN:

INCREDIBLY fast hypersonic missile from Iran making impact in Haifa, Israel. pic.twitter.com/kKFTVyzIet

— Suppressed News. (@SuppressedNws) June 16, 2025

As fire and rescue teams scrambled to respond to the damage, Times of Israel reported at least eight people had been killed and more than 90 injured in the early-Monday attack, bringing Israel’s running death toll to at least 24 with hundreds wounded. “The arrogant dictator of Tehran has become a scared murderer who fires at Israel’s civilian home front in order to deter the IDF from continuing to carry out attacks that are destroying his capabilities,” said Defense Minister Israel Katz, only to then promise that “residents of Tehran will pay the price, and soon.”  

❗️Multiple dead from Iran strikes on Tel Aviv suburbs

Iran ballistic missile guts high-rise — unconfirmed footage pic.twitter.com/D2YgjQHGjo

— RT (@RT_com) June 16, 2025

Iran claimed it struck targets that included a power plant in Haifa that “was seen engulfed in flames,” an oil refinery complex in Bazan, a facility of the military technology company Rafael Advanced Defense Systems facility, as well as Ben Gurion Airport. The Cradle reports that other targets included Nevatim Air Base, an army camp in Galilee, and hits on power grid facilities that caused “widespread blackouts.” Projectiles also hit a residential high-rise building and at least another residential area. An Iranian defense official said the attack included missiles with 1.5-ton warheads, but noted Iran has even heavier warheads in its inventory.  

❗️Iran fireballs Israel’s Haifa power plant — unconfirmed footage pic.twitter.com/rIzTO41Kzk

— RT (@RT_com) June 16, 2025

Citing a statement from the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps, state media outlet PressTV reported that “the operation specifically targeted the Zionist regime’s command and control systems using advanced tactics and enhanced intelligence-tech capabilities.”

“As a result,” the IRGC said, “the enemy’s multilayered defense systems were thrown into disarray, to the point where their own air defense units began firing on each other.” One video making the rounds on social media appears to show an IDF missile interceptor blowing itself up, though the careful observer must contemplate the possibility that an unforced IDF error captured on video may have been opportunistically exploited to make an exaggerated claim: 

IRGC: New methods were used in attack, causing Israeli systems to target each other

Follow: https://t.co/mLGcUTSA3Q pic.twitter.com/5gtKlGIcjU

— Press TV 🔻 (@PressTV) June 16, 2025

Dampening Israeli hopes that Iran may run out of missiles soon, Israeli National Security Advisor Tzachi Hanegbi told Army Radio that Iran has “thousands of ballistic missiles” in its inventory, which the Times of Israel called “a higher figure than previously estimated.” 

Iran has similarly made repeated claims that it hasn’t used its full resources yet. “We are still exercising restraint and have not deployed all our capabilities to avoid global chaos,” IRGC chief Major General Mohsen Rezaei told Iranian state media. “However, we may reach a point where we use new weapons.”  While reiterating Iran’s claim that it doesn’t seek to acquire a nuclear weapon — a claim re-certified as valid by the US intelligence community as recently as March of this year — he hinted that Iran’s stance on nuclear weapon development could change, saying “the future cannot be predicted with precision.”

Israelis scream as Iran’s ballistic missile blacks out Tel Aviv suburb building pic.twitter.com/nyIgp9bCQe

— RT (@RT_com) June 16, 2025

A question is starting to loom large: How long can this Israeli society — which has for years gone almost entirely unscathed as its military unleashes utter devastation on lesser forces and civilian populations — withstand prolonged destruction from a well-equipped foe like Iran?  

🇮🇱🇮🇷 3rd day of missile attacks and people start breaking down already pic.twitter.com/CKzLbP7reK

— Lord Bebo (@MyLordBebo) June 15, 2025

This isn’t Gaza it’s Israel. ⚡ pic.twitter.com/A7FaExDj8H

— Iran Military (@IranMilitary__) June 16, 2025

Remember, we didn’t initiate it.

— Iran Military (@IranMilitary__) June 16, 2025

Authored by Peter Tchir via Academy Securities,

While the fighting continues between Iran and Israel, the market is pricing in a positive outcome in the Middle East. Casualties continue to mount as Iran and Israel continue to attack each other, but an optimistic narrative is emerging.

• Israel has the upper hand militarily. Through a combination of traditional military force, intelligence, espionage and even sabotage, Israel has demonstrated the ability to target specific leaders and sites, with a high degree of success. Iran on the other hand, seems to be confirming what many of our GIG stated back when Iran launched a thousand or so missiles and drones against Israel – the weapons weren’t as effective against Israel’s Iron Dome and other defenses as feared.

  • The proxies have gone quiet. Rather than seeing Israel attacked on multiple fronts, the proxies have been quite quiet. Damage done to the proxies since Hamas attacked Israel on October 7th 2023, has been substantial.

• Iran is afraid to risk escalation to the point of direct U.S. involvement. While Iran has managed some strikes into Israel, the missile barrages seem dangerous, but not overwhelmingly so. Would they dare risk bringing the U.S. into more direct involvement? That would seem like a bad idea strategically from Iran, given their performance so far.

  • Straits of Hormuz likely to remain open. Threats about potentially trying to close this are largely being ignored (crude prices are slightly lower). Do they have the capability? Maybe, but that could bring the U.S. into the conflict in a more meaningful way. It would also not be surprising if China, via back channels, has messaged its preference to continue receiving Iranian oil.

• Regime change is on the table. From the messaging Israel is sending, it is clear that they believe there is a potential to kindle a regime change in Iran. We should all assume they have some degree of intelligence giving them the confidence to go ahead with that messaging. While the IRGC is allegedly still a major force to be reckoned with (we will come back to the word “allegedly” shortly) this would be a major positive development for the region. As the GIG has been pointing out for the past 2 years, with increasing emphasis, Iran has become the outlier and the “enemy” of the Middle East rather than Israel. Many of the nations want to move on and continue to develop post fossil fuel economies – just look at the deals President Trump struck on his recent trip to the region. One can even wonder if Regime Change might be easier to accomplish than knocking out all the Nuclear Capabilities?

While anything can still happen while the fighting continues, the optimistic narrative seems plausible and is very positive.

Which brings us to the point where we need to think about further ramifications. Since China, the Chinese military and the possibility of attacking Taiwan come up in so many of our meetings, we cannot help but wonder if China has some doubt about their own military:

• Russia turned out to be far less superior in the field than one would have expected on paper. They squandered a massive advantage in equipment early on, and while they continue to pound on Ukraine, they have failed to progress much beyond what they held before this all started.

• North Korean troops made headlines by fighting alongside Russians in Ukraine. By all accounts, they had incredibly poor tactics (World War I style charges, leading to their own slaughter). While North Korea has nukes and missiles, and we need to continue to take them seriously, their military seemed lacking in practice (at least what we witnessed in Ukraine).

• Iran’s “vaunted” missile systems. Not to diminish the deaths that have occurred, on both sides, but this has not been “shock and awe” levels of performance. While Iran has no air force, nor navy, so to speak, their air defense systems also seemed particularly vulnerable.

• China, a year or so ago, had dismissals in their “elite” rocket and missile forces. During the brief altercation between India and Pakistan, the Chinese fighter jets supposedly performed well, but the Chinese anti-air defenses did not (that is the intelligence scuttlebutt that came out of that fighting).

If you are Xi, it seems almost impossible that you aren’t at least a tiny bit worried that your own rapidly growing military is merely a paper dragon.

• Maybe this will encourage China to negotiate more fulsomely with the U.S. on the trade front?

  • In any case, hopefully given the recent talks and the focus on rare earths and critical minerals, the U.S. will embrace the policy of National Production for National Security which we touched on in this weekend’s On Shaky Ground.

The fighting continues, and there are risks, but what seemed like optimistic outcomes, now seems to be the most plausible outcomes.

At this rate, the FOMC meeting might be important, and we continue to expect the market to be surprised by a shift to dovishness from this Fed (as described in more detail in Sunday’s T-Report, linked above).

Register for our webinar Tuesday at 1pm EST.

Israel’s ongoing military campaign, Operation Rising Lion, has conducted coordinated precision strikes against Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, crude oil export terminals, and high-value IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) targets since late last week. The scope and sequencing of these strikes—outlined in a Wall Street Journal op-ed in October 2024—suggest objectives that go well beyond deterrence, aiming instead to pave the way for regime change in Tehran. 

🇮🇱🇮🇷 FULL-ON FIRESTORM: ISRAEL AND IRAN STRIKES ACROSS CITIES AND SKIES MAPPED OUT

A new war map lays it out: this isn’t a skirmish—it’s a multi-city missile slugfest.

🇮🇱 Israel has hammered Iranian targets in Tehran, Isfahan, Natanz, Shiraz, Mashhad, Kermanshah, and Tabriz -… https://t.co/SYC7B6AsEv pic.twitter.com/s5pbrMWM4H

— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) June 16, 2025

Speaking Sunday, President Trump emphasized that the U.S. “is not involved” in Israel’s strikes on Iran—adding, however, that “it’s possible we could get involved.”

“We’re not involved in it. It’s possible we could get involved. But we are not at this moment involved,” Trump told ABC News’ Rachel Scott. 

The president also took to Truth Social, positioning himself as mediator and de-escalator-in-chief, stating: “Iran and Israel should make a deal, and will make a deal.”

Even though President Trump is intent on avoiding a direct confrontation with Iran, any IRGC shift from striking Israel to targeting U.S. interests or personnel in the Middle East would likely escalate the conflict and sharply increase the odds of American intervention.

Overnight, several aviation tracking websites, including Flightradar24 and Air Live, reported that dozens of U.S. Air Force tankers took off from the U.S. and headed towards Europe.

About 30 US Air Force aircraft, mostly KC-46A Pegasus and KC-135 Stratotankers, that left the US last night are starting to reach Europe. The final destination is unknown. pic.twitter.com/8qUqzh9qBm

— Flightradar24 (@flightradar24) June 16, 2025

Destinations are unknown for some, but the Boeing KC-46A and KC-135 aerial refueling tankers are critical aviation assets that extend the operational reach, endurance, and flexibility of fighter jets. 

However… 

2 of those aircraft have just touched down at Moron Airbase, Southeast of Seville, with two more on approach. All are KC135 Stratotankers. pic.twitter.com/MORqV2o8oY

— Flightradar24 (@flightradar24) June 16, 2025

The repositioning of USAF aerial refueling tankers strongly indicates that Western military planners are bracing for a sustained or broadening conflict—measured in weeks, not days. If that’s the case, market overservers should take note: JPMorgan warns Brent crude futures could surge into triple-digit territory if the conflict deepens. 

Just one week ago, it was all about US/China but that seems a long time ago now as 2025 continues to throw up new things for us to think about. Indeed, as DB’s Jim Reid writes, after the events of the last 3-4 days, events in the Middle East will overshadow the FOMC meeting on Wednesday which would have been the highlight in a week of several central bank meetings. 

A quick look at where we stand first: Israel and Iran have continued to exchange strikes over the weekend. Israel has attacked Iran’s energy infrastructure, including oil storage as well as a plant at its largest gas field, but so far has shied away from targeting oil production and shipping facilities. While both sides have traded retaliatory blows, they have so far avoided the most extreme escalatory steps. In Iran’s case, they have so far avoided targeting US facilities in the region, which would very likely trigger direct US involvement. Reuters reported that Trump discouraged Israel from trying to kill Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei when an opportunity presented itself. So diplomacy may be on a knife-edge in the region.

Outside of the Middle East, geopolitics will continue to be in the spotlight with the G7 Leader’s Summit in Canada that started yesterday through to tomorrow. Any headlines from trade in this meeting will also be of note but progress doesn’t look likely from seeing the headlines going into the summit. The meeting also takes place ahead of the NATO summit on June 24-25. So a lot bubbling up and next week will be fascinating to see how the US operates in terms of pressure on its fellow NATO members and what European countries commit to. 

Ahead of that, the FOMC will attract the most attention this week outside of events in the Middle East. As is widely expected, the Fed will remain on hold and maintain their existing biases in the statement, the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and Chair Powell’s press conference. Having said that, the SEP will likely show weaker growth, higher inflation, and could show a softer labour market. With these adjustments, their baseline is that the median dot only shows one rate cut this year, though they admit it is a close call between that and the existing two. Beyond 2025 they expect only modest adjustments to the SEP, with the 2026 median fed funds rate moving 25bps higher, in part supported by a small increase in the long-run dot.

Powell’s press conference is likely to emphasize uncertainty and a wait and see approach. The recent spike in oil will just add to all of this even if recent inflation data has been better than expected. Future price increases from tariffs loom in the background even if their initial impact has taken a bit longer to show up than expected. So it’s a meeting where we could learn very little, partly as the Fed really don’t know which way the world is evolving and feeling that they have flexibility at current policy settings.

Prior to that, the BoJ meeting arrives tomorrow where consensus is for rates to be maintained. There’s also the interim assessment of the JGB purchase plan to look forward to. Here, too, economists expect no change to the schedule up to Q1 2026 and then to be reduced thereafter. Indicatively, DB still expects a July rate hike but there are a number of conditions they go through in the note for that to materialise. 

Then the BoE round outs the G7 policy meetings for the week on Thursday. DB’s UK economist sees the Bank Rate staying unchanged at 4.25% and expects the MPC to open the door to an August rate cut. There will be other European central bank policy meeting this week, Sweden’s Riksbank on Wednesday, and Norway’s Norges bank and Switzerland’s SNB on Thursday. The SNB are expected to cut rates back down to zero which will be a landmark moment after three years of positive rates following 7-8 years of negative rates. There is some risk that they cut into negative rate territory. 

In terms of the rest of the week the day-by-day calendar is at the end as usual but the main highlights are; the US Empire manufacturing index and a 20yr UST auction today; US retail sales, a US holiday (Juneteenth) on Thursday; and the US Phili Fed, industrial production and Germany’s ZEW tomorrow; US housing starts/permits, jobless claims and UK inflation on Wednesday; UK retail sales, Japanese CPI, German PPI and French retail sales on Friday. 

Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events

Monday June 16

• Data: US June Empire manufacturing index, China May home prices, retail sales, industrial production, property investment, Italy April general government debt, Eurozone Q1 labour costs, Canada May housing starts, existing home sales
• Central banks: ECB’s Nagel and Cipollone speak
• Auctions: US 20-year Bond (reopening, $13bn)

Tuesday June 17

• Data: US May retail sales, industrial production, capacity utilisation, import price index, export price index, June NAHB housing market index, New York Fed services business activity, April business inventories, Germany June ZEW survey, Eurozone June ZEW survey, Canada April international securities transactions
• Central banks: BoJ decision, ECB’s Villeroy and Centeno speak
• Auctions: US 5-year TIPS (reopening, $23bn)

Wednesday June 18

• Data: US May building permits, housing starts, April total net TIC flows, initial jobless claims, UK May CPI, RPI, April house price index, Japan May trade balance, April core machine orders, Italy April current account balance, ECB April current account, New Zealand Q1 GDP
• Central banks: Fed, Riksbank decision, ECB’s Elderson, Escriva, Villeroy, Knot, Panetta, Nagel, Centeno and Lane speak

Thursday June 19

• Data: Eurozone April construction output, Australia May labour force survey
• Central banks: BoE, Norges, SNB decision, ECB’s President Lagarde, Villeroy, Nagel and Guindos speak
• Other: Juneteenth federal holiday in the US

Friday June 20

• Data: US June Philadelphia Fed business outlook, May leading index, China 1-yr and 5-yr loan prime rates, UK June GfK consumer confidence, May retail sales, public finances, Japan May national CPI, Germany May PPI, France June business confidence, May retail sales, Eurozone June consumer confidence, May M3, Canada April retail sales, May industrial product price index
• Central banks: ECB publishes its economic bulletin, BoJ’s Governor Ueda speaks

* * * 

Finally, looking at just the US, Goldman writes that the key economic data releases this week are the retail sales and import prices reports on Tuesday. The June FOMC meeting is on Wednesday. The post-meeting statement will be released at 2:00 PM ET, followed by Chair Powell’s press conference at 2:30 PM. 

Monday, June 16 

• 08:30 AM Empire State manufacturing survey, June (-16.0; consensus -6.3, last -9.2)

Tuesday, June 17 

• 08:30 AM Retail sales, May (GS -0.7%, consensus -0.6%, last +0.1%); Retail sales ex-auto, May (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.2%); Retail sales ex-auto & gas, May (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.1%); Core retail sales, May (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.3%, last -0.2%): We estimate core retail sales rebounded 0.2% in May (ex-autos, gasoline, and building materials; month-over-month SA) based on the signal from measures of card spending. We estimate headline retail sales declined 0.7%, reflecting sharply lower auto sales.
• 08:30 AM Import price index, May (GS -0.3%, consensus -0.2%, last +0.1%): We estimate that import prices declined 0.3% in May, reflecting a decline in oil prices and potential payback for a sharp 0.4% increase in core import prices in April that more than offset a weaker dollar and a boost from seasonality (import prices are reported on a not-seasonally adjusted basis). This month’s report could offer an early signal about the extent to which international producers are bearing the cost of tariffs. US import price data are reported exclusive of customs duties. That means that, for example, unchanged import prices would suggest that the incidence of tariffs is falling fully on US consumers and businesses, all else equal. Early foreign export price data suggest that exporters to the US could be absorbing some of the costs of tariffs by lowering their prices.
• 09:15 AM Industrial production, May (GS +0.1%, consensus flat, last flat); Manufacturing production, May (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.1%, last -0.4%); Capacity utilization, May (GS 77.8%, consensus 77.7%, last 77.7%): We estimate industrial production increased 0.1%, as strong natural gas and mining production outweigh weak electricity production. We estimate capacity utilization increased to 77.8%.
• 10:00 AM Business inventories, April (consensus flat, last +0.1%)
• 10:00 AM NAHB housing market index, June (consensus 36, last 34)

Wednesday, June 18 

• 8:30 AM Housing starts, May (GS -1.0%, consensus -0.2%, last +1.6%); Building permits, May (consensus +0.2%, last -4.0%); 
• 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended June 14 (GS 250k, consensus 245k, last 248k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended June 7 (consensus 1,925k, last 1,956k)
• 02:00 PM FOMC statement, June 17–18 meeting: We expect the FOMC to reiterate that it plans to remain on hold until it has further clarity about policy changes and the economic outlook. Participants’ tariff assumptions will have risen since March, but in light of the recent trade de-escalation and soft inflation news, we suspect they will make cautious tariff assumptions and avoid bold changes to their forecasts. We expect the median projection for 2025 to show slightly higher 3.0% inflation, slightly lower 1.5% GDP growth, and a slightly higher 4.5% unemployment rate. We expect the median dots to be unchanged, with two cuts to 3.875% in 2025, two cuts to 3.375% in 2026, one cut to 3.125% in 2027, and a 3% neutral rate.

Thursday, June 19 

• Juneteenth National Independence Day. NYSE will be closed. SIFMA recommends bond markets also remain closed.

Friday, June 20 

• 08:30 AM Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, June (GS flat, consensus -1.0, last -4.0)

Source: DB. Goldman

Despite Israel and Iran volleying missiles and bombs at one another over the weekend, Brent crude futures showed a surprisingly muted reaction Monday morning, initially gapping higher Sunday evening but flat to down. 

Goldman Sachs analyst Ananya Prakash added color about the market’s restrained response, telling clients the “situation feels relatively contained” for now, with attention centered on potential supply disruptions—particularly the extreme scenario of Iran moving to close the Strait of Hormuz.

Bloomberg reports a surge in GPS jamming around the Strait of Hormuz, scrambling navigation for more than 900 vessels and hinting at a new form of disruption for the world’s most critical maritime chokepoint. 

Here’s more from the report:

Starboard Maritime Intelligence and Bloomberg data showed vessels sailing impossibly straight lines in the region, zig- zagging across the water, or appearing onshore. The glitches — which have affected oil tankers, cargo ships, tugs and fishing boats among others since Friday — increase reliance on radars, compasses and eyesight, boosting the likelihood of collisions.

The Joint Maritime Information Center, an international naval task force monitoring the area, warned on Sunday that there are instances of “extreme jamming” of signals from the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas.

GPSJam—a site that publishes daily heat maps of GPS/GNSS disruptions affecting aircraft—shows multiple “high-interference” zones clustered around the Strait of Hormuz.

The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations said on Monday it had received multiple reports of increasing GPS interference in maritime chokepoint:

UKMTO has received multiple reports and monitoring of AIS confirms, that there is increasing electronic interference within the waters of the Gulf and Straits of Hormuz. Whilst the level of electronic interference continues to rise across the wider region, the levels and intensity inside the Gulf are having a significant impact on vessels positional reporting through automated systems (AIS).

Despite reports of “high” GPS jamming across parts of the maritime chokepoint, there are currently no signs of an imminent Iranian blockade. However, any move to choke off the strait, which handles roughly a quarter of global oil trade, would likely send Brent crude futures soaring into triple-digit territory. 

However, a separate Bloomberg report found some oil tanker operators and managers have paused offering their vessels for Middle East routes since Friday to let the dust settle.

JPMorgan commodity analyst Natasha Kaneva issued a warning over the weekend, stating that the odds increased of a “worst-case scenario” —defined as “the oil price reaction turning exponential rather than linear, with the impact on supply potentially extending beyond a 2.1 mb/d reduction in Iranian oil exports”—could push prices as high as $120–$130 per barrel. Read the full note here.

Vance Boelter, a 57-year-old former appointee by Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, operator of multiple mysterious NGOs, and suspected political assassin, was captured Sunday night after a massive multi-day manhunt. He is accused of murdering a Minnesota state lawmaker and her husband and wounding two others. 

🚨🇺🇸BREAKING: LEFTWING DEM ACTIVIST NAMED IN SHOOTING OF MN MODERATE DEMS

Vance Luther Boelter – a Democrat activist and 2019 appointee of Gov. Tim Walz – is the suspect in a targeted shooting of MN lawmakers Melissa Hortman and John Hoffman.

Both are moderate Democrats.

This… https://t.co/O7MflyOYK5 pic.twitter.com/1zkOfd1RGv

— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) June 14, 2025

“The face of evil. After relentless and determined police work, the killer is now in custody,” the Ramsey County Sheriff’s Office wrote on Facebook late Sunday night, attaching an image of Boelter taken by police, adding, “Thanks to the dedication of multiple agencies working together along with support from the community, justice is one step closer.”

The Ramsey County Sheriff’s Office apprehended Boelter in Sibley County. Earlier, on Saturday morning, Boelter fatally shot former Minnesota House Speaker Melissa Hortman and her husband, Mark. In a separate incident, he wounded State Senator John Hoffman, also a Democrat, and his wife, Yvette.

Brooklyn Park Police Department Chief Mark Bruley told reporters more than 20 different SWAT teams were involved in the search, describing it as the “largest ever in the state’s history.” 

In a statement, FBI Minneapolis special agent in charge Alvin Winston said Boelter’s actions were a “deliberate and violent act on public servants and their families.” 

The Epoch Times provided additional details about the suspect:

A LinkedIn profile that appears to be associated with Boelter showed that his most recently held role was as CEO of the Red Lion Group hotel, which he said was based in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

He and his wife, Jennifer, also apparently run a security service called Praetorian Guard Security Services LLC, according to their website. His wife is listed as the chief executive of the firm.

The company website says it offers only armed guard security services, and Boelter wrote that he had been “involved with security situations in Eastern Europe, Africa, North America and the Middle East, including the West Bank, Southern Lebanon and the Gaza Strip.”

It also said that he has “ground experiences combined with training by both private security firms and by people in the U.S. Military” and also “worked for the largest U.S. oil refining company, the world’s largest food company based in Switzerland, and the world’s largest convenience retailer based in Japan.” Those claims could not be immediately verified by The Epoch Times.

The suspect has a very shady past with NGOs operating overseas.

Screenshots from suspected Minnesota attacker Vance Luther Boelter’s public LinkedIn before it was taken down.

Fourth image shows he indeed volunteered for the Governors Workforce Development Board in Minnesota.

Tim Walz has a lot of explaining to do. https://t.co/NE5S1LHz6C pic.twitter.com/N62uUtYwgN

— Paul A. Szypula 🇺🇸 (@Bubblebathgirl) June 14, 2025

Vance Boelter was running this international NGO: Red Lion Group.

Reading this description of what they’re supposedly trying to do reads like pure NGO fraud, and this guy was just trying to siphon a salary and an expense account

And likely was looking for tax dollars to do that pic.twitter.com/23i8y7zxEI

— @mcm_ct_usa (@mcm_ct_usa) June 14, 2025

Vance Boelter is also connected to a Minnesota entity called “You Give Them Something to Eat, Inc.”… https://t.co/b6AeDWqVj3 pic.twitter.com/gcZKDmtlHY

— Seamus Bruner (@seamusbruner) June 14, 2025

And this…

The New York Post noted that the Boelter “left behind a “manifesto” listing the names of 70 politicians, including Walz and his Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, and a stack of papers stating “No Kings” in reference to the nationwide anti-Trump protests.”

Given the targeted shootings of state lawmakers overnight, we are asking the public to not attend today’s planned demonstrations across Minnesota out of an abundance of caution. pic.twitter.com/7hFccnrQUT

— MN State Patrol (@MnDPS_MSP) June 14, 2025

.  .  . 

Authored by Olivia Murray via AmericanThinker.com,

Everyone probably remembers during Donald Trump’s first presidency when Kelly Osbourne completely jammed her foot in her mouth during a segment on The View when she got a little carried away talking like a tough guy, delivering what she no doubt thought was a zinger: “If you kick every Latino out of this country, then who is going to be cleaning your toilet, Donald Trump?”

9 years ago, Kelly Osbourne failed to make a point against Donald Trump in ‘The View’ pic.twitter.com/IMGPj4fIlM

— PopCulture (@notgwendalupe) August 4, 2024

It was such a monumental jack** moment, even the other View women gasped and cringed, and Osbourne quickly backpeddled.

That was only the beginning.

Since then, Democrat after Democrat has warned what enforcing immigration law means (but only when Republicans do it), and that is the disappearance of slave labor.

(I swear, if in 50 years the Democrats demand reparations for the illegals who were underpaid and treated like property, the very policies they support now, I’m gonna lose it.)

As we’re all acutely aware, Los Angeles is indistinguishable from a third world riot scene. If you didn’t know better, you’d think you were in Mogadishu in July 1989, or Tripoli in 2011—but nope, it’s just a Golden State city after decades of Democrat control.

And, offering her two cents about the events, mayor Karen Bass says that if the ICE raids persist, there will be “nobody” left to nanny LA’s children or mow the lawns.

Her comments are below, from a report at Fox News:

‘My biggest fear is the impact that all Angelenos will begin to feel when the labor of immigrants is absent,’ Bass said. ‘We’ll feel it in the construction industry. We’ll feel it in hospitality. We’ll feel it at grocery stores. People will begin to notice.’

She continued, ‘You think about the mothers who have nannies and housekeepers. They will feel it when there’s nobody to do childcare and there’s nobody to take their kids to school. You know, you will feel it when your gardener goes away, and you don’t know where he or she is. So Angelenos will feel the absence of immigrant labor.’

There will be “nobody” left to undercut American wages and steal American jobs? Sounds like a win-win to me. Oh the horror that a parent would have to care for their own child, or tend the garden without the help!

But she is right, rooting out illegals would be felt in the job market—because they’re taking a ton of our jobs. One study presented a very, very conservative estimate, that 11% of the workforce in LA is made up of illegal workers. The Las Vegas Sun reports that immigrant labor makes up a whopping 55% of the job market in California—how many of those are illegals?—and then there’s this, from a search engine AI:

In California, around 40% of the construction workforce is composed of immigrants, with about half of them potentially lacking documentation. An estimated 45% of agricultural workers are undocumented.

However… you know who we wouldn’t miss if they didn’t show up for “work”? Government parasites, like Bass. Can we loose ICE on California’s elected officials, so they too stop showing their faces in public?

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Across the U.S., major urban centers are experiencing significant land subsidence, a.k.a the sinking of land.

This map, via Visual Capitalist’s Kayla Zhu, visualizes the average vertical land movement within 28 of the largest U.S. cities from 2015 to 2021, measured in milimeters per year.

Data comes from a 2025 Nature Cities study titled “Land subsidence risk to infrastructure in US metropolises” by Ohenhen, Zhai, Lucy, et al.

Which U.S. City is Sinking the Most?

Below, we show the average vertical land movement within 28 of the largest U.S. cities from 2015 to 2021, measured in millimeters per year.

Arecent study found that 25 of the 28 largest U.S. metropolitan areas are sinking each year, with cities in Texas experiencing some of the most severe land subsidence.

Out of the cities studied, Houston was the city experiencing the most drastic subsidence, sinking 5.216 milimeters per year on average.

This gradual sinking can worsen the impacts of sea-level rise, increase flood risk, and place additional stress on urban infrastructure, particularly in densely developed areas.

The primary cause of this subsidence is groundwater extraction, though other contributing factors include the weight of urban development, oil and gas extraction, and glacial isostatic adjustment—a slow shift in the Earth’s surface due to the long-term melting of ancient ice sheets.

The study authors estimate that a total land area of 17,900 sq. km. is sinking across these 28 cities.

To learn about sinking cities, check out this graphic by Planet Anomaly that visualizes the fastest-sinking coastal cities.

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

Israel’s recent military strike on Iran’s nuclear capabilities and the main artery of its energy sector has reshuffled the regional deck. For Europe, the attack could signal the onset of an energy policy disaster.

It is too early to fully assess Israel’s strategic attacks on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure and energy production. Yet one thing is already clear: alongside the systematic elimination of military and nuclear targets, the precision strike on the South Pars gas field marks a dramatic escalation of military events. Located on the Persian Gulf, South Pars is currently the world’s largest operational gas field and a central pillar of the Iranian regime’s economic stability. By targeting this facility, Israel has sent a clear signal that it aims to bring about regime change in Tehran—and is willing to risk retaliatory attacks on its own energy infrastructure to achieve that end.

Hitting Iran’s Economic Lifeline

The June 14 attack on the gas field resulted in the immediate shutdown of one of its four production units. Daily output dropped by 12 million cubic meters—a roughly 4.4 percent decrease in Iran’s daily gas production, which totals approximately 275 billion cubic meters annually. With a domestic gas price of around $0.07 per cubic meter, the Iranian regime is now losing an estimated $840,000 per day. This is a serious blow to the country’s energy sector, as South Pars is Iran’s most important energy source.

Iran uses the bulk of its natural gas for domestic consumption—primarily for power generation, heating, and industrial purposes. Only about 10 percent of its gas output is designated for export, according to the National Iranian Gas Company (NIGC), with Iraq and Turkey as its main customers under long-term contracts. Export to Europe remains a strategic objective for Tehran but is currently of negligible significance due to lack of infrastructure and hostile political conditions.

Europe’s Energy Dependence

Israel’s strike caused an immediate spike in global energy prices. Within hours, the price of crude oil surged by 14 percent to $73 per barrel, reflecting market fears of a regional escalation that could permanently damage energy production infrastructure. While global LNG markets were less directly affected, traders began pricing in risk premiums for oil and gas futures in anticipation of further attacks on critical energy facilities.

If the conflict deepens, energy-poor and import-dependent regions could face a heavy toll. Europe, in particular, may be reminded of the oil shocks of the 1970s, when OPEC retaliated against Western support for Israel during the Yom Kippur War with a 5 percent production cut—plunging much of the West into recession. At the time, the price of oil jumped from $3 to over $12 per barrel in less than a year. Western economies scrambled to respond with drastic measures, including the now-infamous “car-free Sundays.”

Despite decades of rhetoric about energy independence, Europe remains highly vulnerable. Around 58 percent of the European Union’s total energy consumption must be covered by imports from outside the continent. This dependency makes Europe susceptible to geopolitical crises, price volatility, and supply disruptions. Energy security has long been a core concern of EU policy, but the continent has failed to escape the geopolitical stranglehold of the global energy market. The EU’s Green Deal, hailed as a bold energy transformation, has in practice deepened Europe’s vulnerability by accelerating deindustrialization and weakening its industrial base.

Oil and gas dependence remains especially pronounced. Germany, despite annual multibillion-euro investments in “green transformation,” imports 66 percent of its energy. Italy depends on imports for 75 percent of its needs, and Spain for 68 percent. Only a handful of countries, such as Estonia (3 percent) and Sweden (26 percent), can claim relative energy independence.

The Euro and the Fiat Trap

For eurozone nations, a repeat of the 1970s oil crisis would be financially devastating. Crises of this kind drive mobile capital toward the U.S. dollar—the world’s dominant energy-trading currency. The U.S., with its largely energy-autarkic economy, would be shielded from much of the fallout.

Europe’s situation, by contrast, is precarious. The euro is a fiat currency backed by an issuer with little access to domestic energy resources. In the face of geopolitical shocks, it would likely suffer sharp devaluation as Europe scrambles to pay soaring import prices. Rising energy costs would act as a recession accelerator, fueling existing inflationary pressures and triggering capital flight toward more energy-secure jurisdictions. Europe is trapped. The political elimination of nuclear power in Germany and the embargo on Russian energy have only intensified the continent’s exposure.

Brussels appears paralyzed in the face of this geopolitical turbulence. The war between Israel and Iran underscores what has already become clear in the Ukraine conflict: the EU is losing geopolitical relevance at breakneck speed. It plays little to no role in either preventing or resolving the central conflicts of our era. Without a fundamental shift in strategy—and a renewed willingness to engage in pragmatic diplomacy—Europe lacks the tools to confront an impending energy shock. The EU must relearn the art of negotiation. Its influence in the world’s energy-dominant regions is rapidly evaporating.

* * * 

Thomas Kolbe, a German economist, has worked for over 25 years as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.