Update (1335ET): As Trump’s ‘tax the rich’ idea has reportedly resulted in “massive finger pointing and disarray,” according to Charles Gasparino, Bloomberg now reports that House Republicans are weighing a proposal to dramatically increase taxes on wealthy university endowments, according to people familiar with a draft of the tax package under discussion. The plan, not yet finalized, would create a tiered system that raises the current 1.4% levy to rates as high as 14% to 21%, depending on endowment size.

The measure is part of a broader effort by President Donald Trump and his allies to reshape higher education policy and assert greater control over elite institutions. Trump is expected to meet Friday with House Ways and Means Committee Chair Jason Smith to review the draft. Portions of the bill could be released as soon as Sunday night or Monday.

Trump’s 2017 tax package, which Republicans are moving to renew, implemented an endowment levy of 1.4% on net investment income, similar to one that private foundations pay. That levy generated more than $380 million from 56 colleges or universities in 2023 — though it affected just a small fraction of the 1,700 private, nonprofit US schools. 

House Budget Committee Chairman Jodey Arrington floated a long list of possible budget cuts in January that included raising $10 billion over 10 years by raising the endowment tax to 14%. -Bloomberg

The proposal targets some of the nation’s wealthiest schools, including Harvard and Yale, where per-student endowments exceed $500,000. Harvard, with a $53.2 billion endowment, has been in a legal battle with the federal government over funding freezes and has previously faced threats to its tax-exempt status.

Republicans argue the move would ensure universities direct more of their funds toward student needs and away from initiatives opposed by conservatives, such as DEI programs or legal challenges to Trump-era policies.

*  *  *

On Thursday, Bloomberg reported that President Donald Trump has been urging GOP lawmakers to raise taxes on Americans making at least $2.5 million annually, or couples making $5 million. We waited for a denial, only to get some ‘clarification’ today.

In a Friday morning Truth Social post, Trump suggested that Republicans ‘should probably not do it,’ but “I’m OK if they do!!!”

Trump says that the problem with ‘even a “TINY” tax increase for the RICH’ is that ‘Democrat Lunatics would go around screaming, “Read my lips,” the fabled Quote by George Bush the Elder that is said to have cost him the election,” – referring to then-candidate George H.W. Bush’s 1988 campaign promise not to raise taxes as president – which of course he did not keep, and was seen as a factor in his loss in the 1992 election.

Trump reportedly reached out to House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) to push the tax, which would restore a 39.6% bracket to its pre-2017 level. The current top rate stands at 37%. The president also reiterated support for ending the carried interest tax break, a longstanding benefit claimed by private equity and venture capital managers, according to the report.

The proposal is undoubtedly an attempt to mitigate concerns over the GOP’s current plans to make Trump’s 2017 tax cuts permanent without having to chip away at hot-button entitlement programs.

Representative Jason Smith, the Missouri Republican who chairs the powerful House Ways and Means Committee, is expected to meet with President Trump today. A congressional aide told BBG that Smith plans to assure the president that the forthcoming tax bill ‘will deliver on the president’s priorities.’

While the proposal’s full contours remain under negotiation, it is not yet clear whether it would include an expansion of the existing small business income exemption under the individual tax code.

The push to raise the top rate comes as House Republicans face mounting fiscal pressure in drafting what President Trump has labeled the “one big beautiful bill” — a multi-trillion-dollar package aimed at extending the 2017 tax cuts while enacting a range of new promises, including eliminating taxes on tips and overtime pay.

To finance the plan, GOP leaders have struggled to find consensus on cuts to entitlement programs such as Medicaid, prompting President Trump to float alternatives.

Last month, Johnson said that he was “not in favor of raising the tax rates, because our party is the group that stands against that traditionally.”

Also last month, Trump told Time magazine that “I would be honored to pay more, but I don’t want to be in a position where we lose an election because I was generous — but me, as a rich person, would not mind paying and you know, we’re talking about very little,” adding “We’re talking about one point. It doesn’t make that much difference, and yet, I could just see somebody trying to bring that up as a subject, and, you know, say, ‘Oh, he raised taxes.’”

Authored by Oscar Zarrage Perez via BitcoinMagazine.com,

Arizona has made history by becoming the second state in the U.S. to create a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. 

On Thursday, Governor Katie Hobbs signed House Bill 2749 into law, officially launching the Arizona Bitcoin & Digital Assets Reserve, a pioneering move that channels profits from unclaimed property into Bitcoin and other top-tier digital assets.

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Arizona enacts new law to establish a Strategic #Bitcoin Reserve. pic.twitter.com/QiljmKTtDx

— Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) May 8, 2025

The bill outlines several key features:

• Redirection of unclaimed-property profits toward Bitcoin and other digital assets

• Use of interest, staking rewards, and airdrops from abandoned property to fund strategic acquisitions

• Strong diversification rules, ensuring Bitcoin supplements — but doesn’t dominate — Arizona’s investment portfolio

• Mandated U.S.-regulated custody for the assets

• Clear implementation steps that allow the state to begin purchasing digital assets and “stacking sats”

• Native Bitcoin redemption, which means lost Bitcoin can be returned in BTC rather than U.S. dollars

The law positions Arizona alongside New Hampshire in transforming idle state assets into potentially appreciating stores of value. By putting otherwise unused funds to work, the state is taking a strategic, forward-looking approach to safeguard its treasury without raising taxes or using the general fund.

“Arizona just showed the country how to turn forgotten assets into a fortress against inflation,” said Dennis Porter, CEO and Co-Founder of the Satoshi Action Fund, a key advocate for the bill. 

“With HB 2749, lawmakers converted dormant dollars into digital gold — without touching the taxpayer’s pocket. It’s a win for fiscal responsibility and for every Arizonan who believes in sound money.”

Cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase also played a role by offering expert testimony that helped propel the bill through legislative hurdles, according to Satoshi Action Fund. Their involvement gave lawmakers a clearer understanding of the financial and technological implications of Bitcoin-based reserves.

ARIZONA SIGNS STRATEGIC BITCOIN RESERVE INTO LAW! 🇺🇸 pic.twitter.com/xQXsm2fEXQ

— Dennis Porter (@Dennis_Porter_) May 8, 2025

Representative Jeff Weninger (R-Chandler), the bill’s sponsor, was credited with tirelessly shepherding the legislation from its early draft stages through multiple committee hearings, stakeholder meetings, and floor votes, ultimately securing bipartisan support and ensuring its successful passage into law.

“Digital assets aren’t the future—they’re the present,” said Weninger. 

“This law ensures Arizona doesn’t leave value sitting on the table and puts us in a position to lead the country in how we secure, manage, and ultimately benefit from abandoned digital currency. We’ve built a structure that protects property rights, respects ownership, and gives the state tools to account for a new category of value in the economy. It’s exactly the kind of policy we should be leading on—modern, precise, and built with an understanding of where technology and finance are heading.”

The Satoshi Action Fund, which helped draft and advocate for HB 2749, has become a leading voice in Bitcoin policy. To date, the organization has contributed to the passage of eight pro-Bitcoin laws and inspired more than 20 additional legislative efforts across the country.

An Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT) account on X has identified flight tracking data indicating that a B-2 Spirit Stealth Bomber, recently deployed to Diego Garcia—the U.S. airbase often referred to as an “unsinkable aircraft carrier” located in the Indian Ocean—is returning or en route to Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri. 

While not officially confirmed, the timing and visibility of the B-2’s return flight may suggest deliberate signaling by U.S. military forces. The movement, coinciding with headlines regarding progressing nuclear talks with the U.S.-Iran, hints at the potential alignment between military posture and backchannel negotiations. Or this may have been a routine flight because stealth bombers aren’t built for prolonged exposure to salt air. 

At 1130 ET, X user EISNspotter wrote on X that the stealth bomber was “heading home to Whiteman AFB after deployment to NSF Diego Garcia, working San Francisco Radio HF 8843.” 

#LOOM11 flt (x3 B-2) heading home to Whiteman AFB after deployment to NSF Diego Garcia, working San Francisco Radio HF 8843. pic.twitter.com/SjYdhWAWJy

— EISNspotter 🇮🇪 (@EISNspotter) May 9, 2025

The timing of the B-2’s return closely aligns with Reuters reporting that Iran has agreed to a fourth round of indirect nuclear negotiations with the U.S., scheduled to take place in Oman on Sunday. 

Iranian news outlet Tasnim offered more details on the upcoming talks: “Following a proposal by the Omani foreign minister to hold the fourth round of talks on Sunday, Tehran has announced its agreement,” adding, “The fourth round of Iran-U.S. talks in Oman has been finalised.” 

In recent months, multiple open-source indicators—including flight tracking data and satellite imagery—have confirmed a U.S. military buildup of B-2s at Diego Garcia, a key U.S. airbase located in the Indian Ocean.

Trump, who previously withdrew the U.S. from the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), has publicly threatened to bomb Iran if no new nuclear agreement is reached. However, during remarks about a U.S.-U.K. trade deal on Thursday, the president stated he “doesn’t want any big bombing” of Iran—signaling a potential shift or softening in tone on Tehran as the fourth round of talks begins on Sunday. 

TRUMP: I don’t want to bomb Iran. I want them to be very successful. pic.twitter.com/N9YWxOgoJ1

— Grace Chong, MBI (@gc22gc) May 8, 2025

The question remains whether Trump’s maximum pressure campaign on Tehran can break the regime.

There is still a risk Israel may preemptively strike and dismantle Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities with F-35 stealth jets. 

Via VigilantFox.com,

For years, the media have used fake polls to manipulate public opinion and crush Trump’s momentum.

But Victor Davis Hanson just revealed that the polls are not only wrong—he showed they were rigged, by design.

Polling is now just a weapon, used to suppress Trump’s base and supercharge Democrat fundraising.

And once you hear the evidence, you’ll never trust another mainstream poll again.

Lately, the media’s been pushing a familiar narrative: Trump is tanking in the polls.

But Victor Davis Hanson says that story doesn’t hold up—and once you see what’s behind the numbers, it starts to look a lot more like propaganda than polling.

So where did it all come from?

“We’ve touched on polls before,” Hanson said, “but I don’t think I’ve seen anything quite as egregious in pollsters’ bias as recently when they… purportedly surveyed the first 100 days of Donald Trump and the public reaction.”

Headlines immediately screamed: Worst first 100 days in history.

Trump’s approval supposedly dropped from 52 to 41 percent.

But as Hanson pointed out, none of that lined up with reality.

“The economic news was pretty good,” he explained.

Trump has been racking up the wins:

“Job growth was just spectacular—over 170,000 jobs. Inflation was down. Energy prices were down. Corporate profits were up. There was a movement on the trade question. Ukraine, still—there was no bad news except the controversy and chaos of a counterrevolution.”

Lately, the media’s been pushing a familiar narrative: Trump is tanking in the polls.

But Victor Davis Hanson says that story doesn’t hold up—and once you see what’s behind the numbers, it starts to look a lot more like propaganda than polling.

So where did it all come from?… pic.twitter.com/uX61qedGrf

— The Vigilant Fox 🦊 (@VigilantFox) May 8, 2025

So why were the polls painting such a grim picture?

Hanson believes the goal wasn’t to reflect public opinion—it was to steer it.

“What were the pollsters trying to tell us,” he asked, “or were they trying to manipulate us? I think it’s the latter.”

He pointed to analysis from Larry Kudlow, who found that top polls—like those from The New York Times and The Washington Post—deliberately underrepresented Trump voters.

“They were deliberately not counting people who surveyed that they were Trump voters in 2024,” Hanson said.

“That was half the country.”

Even worse:

“They were only polling about a third,”

“Think of that. A third of the people that said they voted for Trump, they polled—not half. So of course the results were going to be disputed or suspect.”

And this isn’t the first time.

Hanson reminded us that pollsters have repeatedly missed the mark—in 2016, 2020, and again in 2024.

“They said they had learned their lessons. And they were way off in 2024.”

So why were the polls painting such a grim picture?

Hanson believes the goal wasn’t to reflect public opinion—it was to steer it.

“What were the pollsters trying to tell us,” he asked, “or were they trying to manipulate us? I think it’s the latter.”

He pointed to analysis… pic.twitter.com/2t8IOO7fab

— The Vigilant Fox 🦊 (@VigilantFox) May 8, 2025

It all comes down to artificial leads.

Hanson doesn’t chalk this up to sloppy methods or innocent mistakes. He believes it’s deliberate.

“Liberal pollsters—and that’s the majority—believe that if they create artificial leads for their Democratic candidates, it creates greater fundraising and momentum.”

It’s a psychological game.

“Kind of the herd mentality,”

“‘Oh. Trump is down by six. I don’t want to vote for him then. He won’t win.’ That’s the type of thing that they want to create.”

It all comes down to artificial leads.

Hanson doesn’t chalk this up to sloppy methods or innocent mistakes. He believes it’s deliberate.

“Liberal pollsters—and that’s the majority—believe that if they create artificial leads for their Democratic candidates, it creates greater… pic.twitter.com/qCyUvmkOje

— The Vigilant Fox 🦊 (@VigilantFox) May 8, 2025

One poll in particular stood out as the worst offender.

Hanson explained:

“The most egregious of all these polls was the NPR, PBS, Marist poll,” Hanson said.

“They have Donald Trump just very unpopular after 100 days.”

He reminded viewers that this same poll—funded by the now-defunded Corporation for Public Broadcasting—was the one that came out the night before the 2024 election.

It claimed Kamala Harris would win by four points.

“They said it was beyond the margin of error.”

“And one of the pollsters said it’s her race to lose.”

“She lost by a point and a half,”

“They were five and a half points off. Did they apologize? No.”

Even worse, he said, the Harris campaign knew the public polling was wrong.

“David Plouffe… just recently came out and said, ‘We had all these inside polls we never disclosed, but not one of them—not one of them—had Harris ever ahead of Trump.’”

And that’s because internal polls don’t lie.

“Nothing will get you fired and lose income quicker than to lie about a poll so that your candidate will be happy and rely on your false information.”

“They knew the whole time——that 15 of those 20 polls, 19 polls that all had Harris winning the election, they were all false.”

One poll in particular stood out as the worst offender.

“The most egregious of all these polls was the NPR, PBS, Marist poll,” Hanson said.

“They have Donald Trump just very unpopular after 100 days.”

He reminded viewers that this same poll—funded by the now-defunded… pic.twitter.com/haU62pGXNh

— The Vigilant Fox 🦊 (@VigilantFox) May 8, 2025

And here’s where it all comes together.

According to Hanson, the only polls that got it right were the ones with nothing to prove—just data to report.

“Mark Penn was very accurate,” he said.

“He’s a Democratic pollster. But especially the Rasmussen poll, Insider Advantage, and the Trafalgar poll—they joined together and they had a 100-day survey.”

“Rasmussen, each day of the 100-day period—had Trump ahead by anywhere from two to three points. And they were the most accurate.”

Yet the media ignored those numbers and declared Trump’s presidency a disaster.

“No—he’s polling very well.”

“Because the pollsters that indicate that people support him are the only pollsters that have any reputation after this decade-long polling disaster.”

In the end, Hanson said, the story wasn’t about public opinion at all. It was about power.

“They were effectively in league with the Democratic candidate to create momentum,” he said, “rather than adhere to a spirit of professionalism and honor.”

And here’s where it all comes together.

According to Hanson, the only polls that got it right were the ones with nothing to prove—just data to report.

“Mark Penn was very accurate,” he said. “He’s a Democratic pollster. But especially the Rasmussen poll, Insider Advantage, and… pic.twitter.com/Ghk0B7neEs

— The Vigilant Fox 🦊 (@VigilantFox) May 8, 2025

Watch the full episode of @DailySignal with Victor Davis Hanson here: https://t.co/tsHOB4jqsp

— The Vigilant Fox 🦊 (@VigilantFox) May 8, 2025

Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The U.S. Agency for Global Media (USAGM) will begin using content from broadcaster One America News Network (OAN).

Kari Lake, a former Arizona gubernatorial candidate and senior adviser to USAGM, unveiled the agreement in a May 6 statement, calling the OAN deal a taxpayer win. Under the deal, OAN will provide its video and news feed to USAGM’s networks—including Voice of America (VOA), Radio Martí, and the Office of Cuba Broadcasting—free of charge.

“This is an enormous benefit to the American taxpayer, who is the sole source of funding for USAGM’s news outlets, which broadcast only to international audiences,” Lake said, adding that she’s “grateful for their generosity.”

Lake said the idea originated with the Office of Cuba Broadcasting, which proposed OAN as a content partner for its Miami-based broadcasts to Cuba. After Lake reached out, OAN agreed to provide its English-language content at no cost.

Although Lake currently holds no editorial authority over VOA or Office of Cuba Broadcasting programming, she said the arrangement expands the range of news content available to agency journalists.

“In my current role as Senior Advisor to USAGM, I don’t have editorial control over the content of VOA and OCB programming, but I can ensure our outlets have reliable and credible options as they work to craft their reporting and news programs,” she said. “And every day, I look for ways to save American taxpayers money. Bringing in OAN as a video/news source does both.”

The content deal comes amid a sweeping overhaul of USAGM under President Donald Trump’s second-term plan to shrink the federal government and dismantle what he describes as wasteful agencies. A March executive order identified USAGM as one of eight federal entities slated for elimination or radical downsizing, directing agency heads to wind down all non-legally required functions.

In response, USAGM placed over 1,000 employees on leave and informed some 600 contractors their roles would be terminated as broadcasts were paused. The agency also began terminating contracts with major wire services—including The Associated Press, Reuters, and Agence France-Presse—which Lake called “expensive and unnecessary.”

“With a nearly billion-dollar budget, we should be producing news ourselves,” Lake said at the time. “If that’s not possible, the American taxpayer should demand to know why.”

Lake estimated the move would save $53 million annually and signaled a broader review of agency expenditures, saying she had discovered “a lot of nonsense that the American taxpayer should not be paying for.”

The reorganization has drawn sharp pushback from some VOA journalists and advocates. Two VOA staffers, White House bureau chief Patsy Widakuswara and press freedom editor Jessica Jerreat, are among several employees suing the Trump administration over its handling of the agency.

The two criticized the OAN content deal, saying it could undermine VOA’s credibility and editorial independence.

“Congress mandated VOA to report reliable and authoritative news, not to outsource its journalism to outlets aligned with the president’s agenda,” they said in a statement. “VOA already has talented and professional journalists ready to tell America’s story in line with the VOA Charter, but we are blocked from our own newsroom.”

Trump, who has frequently attacked public broadcasters such as NPR and PBS, has long viewed VOA as a source of liberal bias. In a March statement supporting the executive order to defund USAGM, the White House labeled VOA “The Voice of Radical America,” and declared that “taxpayers are no longer on the hook for radical propaganda.”

Democrats on the House Foreign Affairs Committee also criticized the OAN deal and the Trump administration’s characterization of VOA.

“The Trump administration smeared VOA and USAGM as radical and biased to justify gutting it. Now Kari Lake wants to repurpose VOA as a megaphone for OAN—a far-right, pro-Trump propaganda outlet,” they wrote in a post on X. “VOA was built to fight propaganda—not broadcast it.”

Meanwhile, a federal judge last month ordered the Trump administration to reinstate VOA employees, and an appeals court quickly blocked the ruling, finding that the lower court lacked the authority to intervene.

Launched in 2013, OAN is a family-owned media outlet known for its conservative perspectives.

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

President Donald Trump on May 8 urged Russia and Ukraine to enter into a 30-day unconditional cease-fire while U.S.-led peace negotiations are ongoing.

Trump stated that the temporary cease-fire must “ultimately build toward a peace agreement” between the two nations and warned that the United States would impose sanctions if the cease-fire wasn’t respected.

“Talks with Russia/Ukraine continue,” he stated in a Truth Social post. 

“Hopefully, an acceptable ceasefire will be observed, and both countries will be held accountable for respecting the sanctity of these direct negotiations.”

Trump also said that he would “stay committed” to ending the war in Ukraine, despite his administration officials having previously indicated that the United States may abandon mediation efforts if there are no clear signs of progress toward a peace agreement.

“It can all be done very quickly, and I will be available on a moment’s notice if my services are needed,” the president stated.

“Thousands of young soldiers are dying on a weekly basis, and everybody should want it to STOP. I do, and the United States of America does, also.”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told Trump during a May 8 phone call that Ukraine is ready to enter into a temporary cease-fire with Russia and is willing to “engage in talks in any format.”

However, Zelenskyy said that Russia must first demonstrate its readiness to end the war, “starting with a full, unconditional ceasefire.” This would involve ending missile and drone strikes and halting offensive assaults along the front lines.

“Ukraine is ready for a full ceasefire starting right now, from this very moment—a 30-day silence. But it must be real,” he said in a video address.

“Thirty days that could become the beginning of years of peace.”

On April 30, the Kremlin said that Russian President Vladimir Putin remains open to a cease-fire and eventual peaceful settlement to the conflict, but there are still issues need to be resolved.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio has previously warned that the U.S. government may abandon efforts to mediate an end to the three-year-long war if Russia and Ukraine fail to make a peace agreement.

“I think they’re closer in general than they’ve been any time in the last three years but it’s still not there,” Rubio said in an interview with NBC News on April 27.

Rubio said that the United States may opt to take measures against those resisting efforts to end the war, but emphasized that it would “prefer not to get to that stage yet because we think it closes the door to diplomacy.”

The war in Ukraine has been ongoing since Putin sent thousands of troops for a full invasion in February 2022. Putin declared an “Easter truce” with Ukraine on April 19, directing his forces to halt all military operations until midnight of April 20.

Both sides later accused each other of violating the truce. The Russian military eventually resumed the “special military operation” after the truce ended.

On April 28, Putin unilaterally declared a three-day ceasefire from May 8–May 10 to mark the 80th anniversary of victory over Nazi Germany in World War II. Zelenskyy later dismissed the move as yet “another attempt at manipulation” by Russia.

“The cease-fire should not be just for a few days, only to return to killing afterward,” Zelenskyy said in an April 28 address. 

“It must be immediate, full, and unconditional, for at least 30 days, to ensure it is secure and guaranteed. This is the foundation that could lead to real diplomacy.”

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha alleged that Russia violated the three-day cease-fire 734 times between midnight and midday on May 8, including 464 attacks involving heavy weapons and 176 drone strikes.

The Russian Defense Ministry said that Ukraine, in turn, had carried out 488 attacks on Russian targets and twice tried to break through the border in the Kursk region.

International Airlines Group (IAG), owner of British Airways and Aer Lingus, will place an order for 53 new Airbus and Boeing long-haul aircraft after reporting strong first-quarter results on Friday.

The company said it will purchase 32 Boeing Co. 787-10 aircraft for British Airways and 21 Airbus SE A330neo planes, which may be assigned to IAG’s airline brands including Aer Lingus, Iberia, and Level.

They are set to be delivered between 2028 to 2033 and are in addition to the 18 planes it ordered in March.

The aircraft are mainly for replacement, with around one third to be used for growth in IAG’s core markets, the company said.

It comes as IAG said its first-quarter 2025 revenue grew 9.6 percent to €7.04 billion, while operating profit increased by €130 million to €198 million, as strong revenue growth and lower fuel prices offset expected cost increases.

Its operating margin also increased to 2.8 percent.

As Katabella Roberts reports for The Epoch Times, IAG credited the strong results to “good operational performance,” particularly at British Airways, while noting that Iberia and Vueling continue to be “amongst the most punctual airlines in the world.”

The British-Spanish company also credited “robust” demand across its North Atlantic routes, which saw 27.8 percent of the total available seat kilometre (ASK) revenue in the first three months to March 2025.

Demand was also strong in Europe (23.3  percent of the total ASK) and Latin America and the Caribbean (22.5 percent) it said.

Spain and the UK were slightly more disappointing with just 8.4 percent of the total ASK.

The results come as plane manufacturers have been battling with supply chain snags and other challenges that have delayed deliveries.

However, IAG said its outlook for the full year remains unchanged, though it acknowledged “geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty.”

As of May 6, the company is around 80 percent booked for the second quarter, with revenue ahead of last year, and 29 percent booked for the second half, which it said is broadly in line with last year

Luis Gallego, IAG chief executive officer, said the company’s strong first quarter results “reflect the performance of our businesses and the effectiveness of our strategy and transformation.”

For now, the company remains focused on strengthening its brands across its markets of the North Atlantic, Latin America, and intra-Europe.

“We continue to see resilient demand for air travel across all our markets, particularly in the premium cabins and despite the macroeconomic uncertainty.

“Our commitment to financial strength and shareholder value is reflected in €530 million of share buybacks completed in 2025 so far, alongside a proposed final dividend of €288 million, which brings our total dividend for 2024 to €435 million,” Gallego said.

The announcement comes as Boeing seeks to ramp up production of its best-selling 737 MAX jet to a rate of 38 per month this year, following a turbulent 2024 that saw the plane maker come under scrutiny due to safety issues.

Separately on Thursday, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the UK will purchase $10 billion of Boeing planes, though the details of that deal remain unclear.

US equity futures traded modestly higher pointing to a third day of gains, until just before 730am ET when Trump decided to play bad cop to Scott Bessent’s good cop and posted on Truth Social that “80% Tariff on China seems right!” but then added that the final tariff rate is “Up to Scott B.”

That comment promptly hit futures, erasing the market’s modest gains, but upon reflection and realization that Trump was probably just in one of his moods, futures resumed their ascent after yesterday’s trade deal with the UK and Trump’s comments to buy the market. The focus is on the start of China trade talks this weekend, but if we use the US/UK deal as a template, it is light on details with a seemingly minimal economic impact. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are up 0.2% and Nasdaq futures gain 0.3%. Pre-market, all Mag7 names are higher with cyclicals mixed but with a bias to Quality names. Markets also benefited from a slew of positive earnings, with Microchip Technology, Lyft, and Pinterest surging while Expedia plunged after it cut bookings growth forecasts. Bond yields are flat as the yield curve bull steepens and the USD sells off after its strongest day since Nov 6 (day after the US Pres. Election). In commodities, energy continues to see a bid with WTI now above $60/bbl, Ags are higher, and precious metals are outperforming base. There is nothing on the macro data calendar, and earnings are light today so today’s session will likely be investors trying to position for outcomes after this weekend’s US/China summit.

In premarket trading, most Mag 7 stocks were green (Tesla +0.75%, Apple +0.2%, Amazon +0.03%, Meta +0.8%, Nvidia +0.1%, Alphabet +0.07%, Microsoft +0.03%). Affirm Holdings fell 6% after the buy-now-pay-later company gave a revenue forecast for the current quarter with the midpoint trailing the avearge analyst estimate. Expedia tumbled 9% after the travel services company cut its gross bookings growth forecast for 2025.

• Figs Inc. (FIGS) drops 16% postmarket after the seller of medical scrubs reduced its year outlook for adjusted Ebitda margin.
• Globus Medical (GMED) drops 14% after the medical device company’s earnings missed estimates, with analysts pointing to weakness in its US spine business and the challenges of integrating recent deals.
• Gogo (GOGO) soars 21% after the in-flight broadband company reaffirmed its adjusted Ebitda guidance for the full year.
• Green Dot (GDOT) rises 18% after the payments companyboosted its adjusted earnings per share forecast for the full year.
• HubSpot (HUBS) declines 4% after the software company gave an outlook for adjusted earnings that is weaker than expected and said Brian Halligan resigned as executive chairperson.
• Iovance Biotherapeutics (IOVA) plunges 34% after the biotech’s first-quarter revenue fell short of estimates and the company cut its full-year forecast.
• Lyft (LYFT) jumps 11% after reporting better-than-expected gross bookings in the first quarter, drawing a sharp contrast with the disappointing results issued by its much-larger ride-hailing rival Uber Technologies a day earlier.
• Microchip Technology (MCHP) climbs 11% after the chipmaker reported fourth-quarter results and said the period “marks the bottom of this prolonged industry down cycle.”
• Pinterest (PINS) climbs 12% after its second-quarter revenue guidance came in ahead of estimates at the midpoint.
• Trade Desk (TTD) is up 14% after the ad-tech company’s forecast for second quarter adjusted Ebitda exceeded the average analyst estimate.
• Wolfspeed (WOLF) tumbles 19% after posting quarterly results. Management said the company continues to work closely with lenders on ways to address Wolfspeed’s capital structure.

Investors are focused on the possibility of easing tensions with China, though Trump’s comments on Friday were a reality check to anyone expecting a quick solution. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer are set to begin talks with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Switzerland this weekend, the first public discussions between the world’s two largest economies. 

President Trump said an 80% tariff on China “seems right!”. He added, however, that it is “up to Scott B”, a reference to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent who is due to meet with Chinese government officials this weekend to try to deescalate the trade tensions. Raising the 80% level clearly puts Bessent under pressure not to ease the 145% tariff level too far. It’s not clear how China would react to that proposal as it’s a level that still effectively impedes trade between the two countries, and there’s a risk China would walk away from the talks. One potential way out could be the agreement between the UK and US, which maintained the headline 10% on UK imports to the US but added key exemptions for critical sectors including cars and steel.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 index rose 0.5%, on track for a fourth weekly advance, led by energy and basic resources while Germany’s DAX Index became the first major European gauge to surpass its March record high, recouping all losses sparked by Trump’s trade war, and rising as much as 0.8% to 23,528.88, exceeding the previous record set on March 18. Here are the biggest movers Friday:

• Bavarian Nordic shares jump as much as 14%, the most since August, after the vaccine maker reported first-quarter revenue that beat expectations and kept its 2025 financial outlook
• EDP rises as much as 6.3% in Lisbon after reporting net income for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate
• Enel shares gain as much as 2.2% after the Italian utility reported a solid set of results, with first-quarter adjusted net income beating estimates
• Mol rose as much as 1.6% after first-quarter earnings beat estimates, though analysts at Citigroup noted the effect of one-off items and key risks for the next quarter’s outlook
• Sonova shares surge as much as 6.9% after the Swiss hearing aid company reported a sales and margin beat, overshadowing the impact of currency headwinds on its outlook
• BE Semiconductor shares rise as much as 3.6% after JPMorgan initiates coverage with an overweight rating, saying the chip-equipment company is bound for substantial revenue growth if adoption of the hybrid bonding technology takes off in 2026 and 2027
• IAG shares rise as much as 2.7% after fluctuating in early trading. The British Airways owner reported first-quarter results that exceeded expectations, but also noted various cost headwinds and some softness in the US economy
• Cellnex shares fall as much as 5.2% after the tower operator reported revenue and free cash flow that missed estimates
• Campari shares fall as much as 4.6% after the Italian spirits maker’s first-quarter results missed expectations, showing that the backdrop continues to be tough with analysts flagging an uncertain outlook due to trade tensions
• Logista shares declined as much as 7.2% as the Spanish company reported net income for the first half that fell 5.4% from a year earlier and said it sees FY adjusted operating profit excluding the impact on inventory values as “slightly below” 2024 levels.

Earlier in the session, Asia’s MSCI’s benchmark gauge rose 0.7%, putting it line for a fourth straight week of gains with Taiwan and Japan leading gains in the region. TSMC, Alibaba and Mitsubishi UFJ were the biggest boosts to the Asia gauge, which is on course to cap its fourth week of advance.  Shares got a boost after a trade agreement between the US and UK spurred hopes for similar deals to rollback high tariffs for other US allies. The Taiwanese stock index climbed 1.8% on Friday, taking gains from an April 9 low to over 20%. Chinese equities edged lower as investors reassess bets before trade talks the weekend. President Donald Trump has said he may consider cutting punishing tariffs on Chinese imports if the talks go well. Meanwhile, Indian stocks and bonds extended their slide as hostilities with Pakistan escalated.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar spot index falls 0.2%, erasing a similar move higher to snap a two-day winning streak; despite its fall, the greenback is on track for its biggest weekly gain in six weeks. NZD is the weakest performer in G-10 FX, JPY and SEK outperform. “The positive risk sentiment from the UK/US trade framework may face a reality check this weekend in Switzerland. If the first talks between China and US do not give a hint of an off ramp from sky-high tariffs, USD will likely resume its decline,” said Eugenia Fabon Victorino, a head of Asia strategy at Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB

In rates, the 10-year Treasury yield was flat at 4.38%, while the two-year yield slipped 1bp to 3.86% as the Treasury curve bull steepens as front-end yields drop and the long end holds steady. In Europe, Bunds bear steepen, with long-end yields up nearly 5bps; the UK gilt curve also bear steepens, with 2s10s widening ~4.3bps as longer yields lead the move higher.

In commodities, oil futures advance again as WTI drifts 1.5% higher to trade near $60.78. Most base metals trade in the green; LME lead rises 1.5%, outperforming peers. Spot gold rises roughly $22 to trade near $3,328/oz.

There are no macro events on today’s calendar but we have a busy Fed speaker slate which includes Kugler (7:45am), Williams (8:30am, 9:15am and 11:30am), Barkin (8:30am), Goolsbee (10am), Waller (11:30am panel with Williams) and Musalem, Hammack and Cook (7:45pm panel).

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini +0.2%
• Nasdaq 100 mini +0.3%
• Russell 2000 mini -0.1%
• Stoxx Europe 600 +0.4%
• DAX +0.6%
• CAC 40 +0.6%
• 10-year Treasury yield little changed at 4.37%
• VIX -0.1 points at 22.4
• Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.2% at 1227.78
• euro +0.2% at $1.1253
• WTI crude +1.3% at $60.85/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Chinese officials have grown “alarmed” in private about the impact to the domestic economy from Trump’s trade war, which is why they were eager to engage with the US. RTRS
• Trump says on his Truth Social account that 80% tariff on China “seems right” ahead of weekend trade talks
• The US hopes to cut its China tariffs to less than 60% if trade talks go well this weekend, people familiar said, in an attempt to de-escalate tensions. Donald Trump signaled tariffs may fall but a spokesman said talk of “targets” was speculation. BBG
• Trump said on his Truth Social account that he is OK if Republcans increase taxes on the rich, although they should probably not do it.
• House Leaders will warn Trump that some of the White House’s tax ambitions will need to be dialed back as Republicans struggle to agree on spending cuts. Politico
• US President Trump posted on Truth that he spoke with Commerce Secretary Lutnick and agreed the “Digital Equity Act” is unconstitutional, which he is ending immediately and there will be no more woke handouts based on race, saving taxpayers billions of dollars.
• Chinese exporters are preparing for a resumption of shipments to the US (part of this preparation involves reserving shipping capacity) in anticipation of both sides dialing back tariffs. RTRS
• China’s trade numbers for April come in ahead of expectations overall, including exports (+8.1% vs. the Street +2%) and imports (-0.2% vs. the Street -0.6%), but exports to the US plunged 21%. WSJ
• Big countries are the focus for future trade deals, especially from Asia, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told Fox. But he said Japan, South Korea and India would require enormous time and effort. BBG
• Silicon Valley wants to disrupt the defense industry — and the Pentagon’s $1 trillion budget. Palantir and Anduril are key players developing autonomous weapons systems that aim to reimagine modern warfare and the companies that dominate it. BBG
• Republicans in Congress are opposed to Trump’s “most favored nation” idea for Medicaid drug purchases (a positive for the industry), although the reconciliation could eliminate a tax deduction for pharma advertising. BBG
• Stablecoin legislation fails to advance in the Senate after Dems blocked the initiative due to opposition over how the Trump family was capitalizing on the crypto industry. NYT

Tariffs/Trade

• US Commerce Secretary Lutnick said deals will be used as templates for other deals and that they will have dozens of deals announced by July 8th. Lutnick stated that as you get to bigger economies and more work, it takes time and economies such as India, Japan and South Korea are huge and take a lot of work, while he added that de-escalation with China is US Treasury Secretary Bessent’s goal in talks and that as countries open their markets, the best any country can do is a 10% tariff.
• Detroit Three trade group said the Trump trade deal with the UK “hurts American automakers, suppliers and auto workers”.
• China’s Vice Foreign Minister Hua said the US cannot sustain what it is doing in trade policy and that China has full confidence in its ability to manage US trade issues. Hua added that China does not want a war of any kind with any other country and has full capability to overcome difficulties amid the trade war, as well as noted that ordinary people in China do not want a trade war but are confident and said they have no fear if they have to face up to reality regarding trade talks.
• China signed a letter of intent with exporters in Argentina to buy about USD 900mln of soybeans, corn and vegetable oil – in turn shifting from the US, according to Bloomberg.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded with a positive bias as the region took impetus from the gains stateside, where sentiment was underpinned by trade optimism following the announcement of a UK-US trade agreement framework and President Trump’s rhetoric regarding China tariffs. ASX 200 gained as outperformance in tech, financials and energy more than atoned for the slack in mining stocks, while earnings also provided a tailwind after an increase in profits for Macquarie Group. Nikkei 225 returned to above the USD 37,000 level for the first time since late March with the index propelled by recent currency weakness, while the data was mixed as Household Spending topped forecasts but Labour Cash earnings softened. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were cautious amid the latest Chinese trade data which topped forecast but showed a slowdown in export growth, although downside was limited ahead of US-China talks on Saturday and after recent comments from President Trump who expects tariffs to go down, while the US was also reportedly weighing a plan to slash China tariffs to as low as 50% as soon as next week.

Top Asian News

• China’s Vice Foreign Minister Hua said the US cannot sustain what it is doing in trade policy and that China has full confidence in its ability to manage US trade issues. Hua added that China does not want a war of any kind with any other country and has full capability to overcome difficulties amid the trade war, as well as noted that ordinary people in China do not want a trade war but are confident and said they have no fear if they have to face up to reality regarding trade talks.
• China signed a letter of intent with exporters in Argentina to buy about USD 900mln of soybeans, corn and vegetable oil – in turn shifting from the US, according to Bloomberg.

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.4%) opened modestly firmer across the board, and have traded sideways throughout the morning thus far. European sectors hold a positive bias; there is some clear outperformance in Energy, while other sectoral gainers are relatively similar in magnitude. Travel & Leisure and Media sit at the foot of the pile – holding modest losses.

Top European News

• Morgan Stanley now expect the BoE to hold rates in June (prev. forecast 25bps cut); now expects rate cut in December, maintains year-end Bank Rate forecast at 3.25%.
• BoE’s Bailey says commitment to the 2% inflation target is unwavering. Scenarios have helped us not only to explore what would happen in case a particular shock, or constellation of shocks, should hit the economy, but also how any given set of shocks could affect the economy and inflation depending on the strengths of different economic mechanisms. Good there is a diversity of view on the MPC. UK-US trade deal will leave effective tariff rate higher than they were when they started.
• ECB’s Simkus says geopolitics since the start of the year is bad news for the economy, via Bloomberg TV; there is downward pressure on inflation Euro-area inflation depends on EU retaliation to the US. ECB June projections may be a little bit worse. June ECB rate cut is needed. It is unclear if a post-June rate cut will be in July or September. “We are more or less there on inflation”. There is no central scenario for ECB rates. “Quite high chances we’ll be undershooting on inflation”.
• ECB’s Rehn says disinflation is on track, and the growth outlook is weakening.
• New German Economy Minister Reiche says “we need a combination of renewable energies and gas, we tended to focus almost too much in climate protection”.
• German Chancellor Merz says will not change previous German government’s position of joint EU debt. Mutual debt “must remain exceptional”, cannot be used for every crisis.

FX

• The recent recovery in the USD has paused for breath with the greenback having gained in the past two sessions on account of the post-FOMC reaction and ongoing trade optimism. On the latter, Thursday saw the unveiling of a UK-US trade agreement. However, of greater importance was Thursday’s remarks from US President Trump that tariffs on China can’t get any higher than 145% and knows they will be coming down. This was followed up by a report in the New York Post that the US is weighing a plan to slash China tariffs to as low as 50% as soon as next week. Today sees a busy Fed speaker slate with Barr, Kugler, Perli, Williams, Goolsbee & Waller all due on deck. DXY currently trading around 100.40.
• EUR/USD is a touch firmer after being weighed on in the past two sessions amid ongoing trade optimism. This is a reversal of the pattern we saw in April as trade tensions ratcheted higher and the EUR benefitted as a liquid alternative to the Greenback. EZ docket is lacking and ECB speak thus far has proved non-incremental with ECB’s Simkus noting ECB June projections may be a little bit worse and a cut next month is needed. EUR/USD briefly slipped onto a 1.11 handle overnight with a low at 1.1197.
• JPY is attempting to claw back some of its recent losses vs. the USD which has seen USD/JPY pick up from a WTD low on Tuesday at 142.35 to a 146.18 peak. Japanese-specific newsflow remains on the light side as market participants await progress on the trade front between Japan and the US. USD/JPY has returned to a 145 handle with a session low at 145.08.
• GBP was unable to benefit vs. the USD and only marginally gained vs. the EUR despite a “hawkish cut from the BoE and news of a UK-US trade agreement. Overnight, Cable hit a new low for the week at 1.3213, whilst EUR/GBP is contained within Thursday’s 0.8457-0.8523 range; lower bound of which coincides with the 50DMA. Commentary from BoE’s Bailey today proved to be a non-event; the Governor highlighted the unwavering commitment to the 2% target.
• Antipodeans have been choppy after the recent dollar strength and as participants digested the latest Chinese trade data, while Westpac adjusted its RBNZ call and now sees two 25bps rate cuts by July instead of its prior view for just one cut.
• PBoC injected CNY 77bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 1.40% for a net weekly drain of CNY 781.7bln, which was the most in two months.

Fixed Income

• USTs are essentially unchanged as newsflow since Thursday’s flurry of trade updates, which weighed on the benchmark into/after settlement, has been a little lighter. USTs at the bottom-end of a 110-25 to 110-30 band and by extension towards Thursday’s 110-24 base. We await anything fresh on the trade front and confirmation/rebuttal from the administration on the piece in the NY Post (and other vendors since) that China tariffs could be cut to as low as 50% next week. Today’s docket is light on the data front but will see a slew of Fed speakers throughout the day.
• Lower by 70 ticks at worst as Bunds, and EGBs broadly, react in full to Thursday’s trade developments, developments that are providing some modest support to the European risk tone this morning. European-specific tariff/trade updates have been light aside from commentary from German Chancellor Merz who said that Trump agreed with him in a phone call on the need to resolve the trade situation quickly. Currently holding just off today’s 130.38 WTD low.
• Gilts are in-fitting with Bunds but with the pressure of an even greater magnitude as the UK benchmark had more of the trade developments to catch up on. Lower by 78 ticks at most to a 92.07 base; support at the figure and then 91.96 from late April and 91.59 from early April. Bailey this morning didn’t add much for specific policy, discussing scenario analysis and similar points in the context of the BoE’s forecasting process. Potentially more pertinently, Chief Economist Pill is due and will hopefully provide insight into his dissent.

Commodities

• Crude futures edge higher in early European morning amid the ongoing trade optimism heading into this weekend’s US-Sino trade talks in Switzerland. Elsewhere, US President Trump said they are trying to work on Iran without getting into bombing, while it was separately reported that US President Trump had a private meeting with Israeli PM Netanyahu’s advisor ahead of his Middle East trip, according to Axios. WTI Jun trades near session highs between USD 59.89-60.74/bbl while Brent Jul resides in a USD 62.84-63.65/bbl parameter.
• Modest gains across the precious metals complex, underpinned by the current intraday weakness of the Dollar. Spot gold initially dipped beneath the prior day’s lows before recovering to above the USD 3,300/oz level. Currently in a USD 3,274.81-3,332.35/oz range at the time of writing.
• Copper futures, in APAC hours, extended on mid-week pullback with selling exacerbated as Chinese markets got underway and with the PBoC’s open market operations resulting in the largest weekly net drain in two months, while participants also reflected on the latest Chinese trade data. Copper futures saw a brief spike higher in European trade, albeit in the absence of pertinent newsflow. The move swiftly pared back shortly after. 3M LME copper resides in a USD 9,342.00-9,465.55/t range.
• Iran’s oil minister has ordered resumption of exploratory drilling in the Caspian Sea, via Shana.
• China’s MOFCOM is to tighten export controls on Gallium, to prevent the smuggling and export of strategic minerals.
• Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister says cannot confirm whether Russia and US are discussing the resumption of gas supplies to Europe, via Ifax.

Russia-Ukraine

• US President Trump posted on Truth that talks with Russia and Ukraine continue, while he called for a 30-day unconditional ceasefire and said that hopefully, an acceptable ceasefire will be observed, and both countries will be held accountable for respecting the sanctity of these direct negotiations. Furthermore, he warned if a ceasefire is not respected, the US and its partners will impose further sanctions.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukraine is ready for an immediate 30-day ceasefire and that a 30-day ceasefire will be a real indicator of movement towards peace.
• Ukrainian official said Russia struck eight settlements in the Zaporizhzhia region with drones and artillery 220 times during the ceasefire.
• UK PM Starmer is to announce the largest ever sanctions package targeting shadow fleet as UK ramps up pressure on Russia, according to the UK government.

OTHER

• North Korea said it tested a Hwasong-11 missile and multiple launch rockets on Thursday and the test was conducted under the nuclear weapons defence system, while North Korean leader Kim stressed the combat readiness of nuclear forces, according to KCNA.
• China and Russia’s joint statement vowed to strengthen cooperation to safeguard the authority of international law and they both strongly opposed unilateral sanctions and long-arm jurisdiction, while they also opposed the practice of double standards or imposition by some states of their will on other states.

US Event Calendar

• Nothing scheduled

Central Bank Speakers

• 5:55 am: Fed’s Barr Gives Speech on AI and the Labor Market
• 6:45 am: Fed’s Kugler Gives Speech on Maximum Employment
• 7:45 am: Fed’s Kugler Appears on Bloomberg TV
• 8:30 am: Fed’s Williams Gives Keynote Address in Reykjavik
• 8:30 am: Fed’s Barkin to Take Part in Fireside Chat in Virginia
• 9:15 am: Fed’s Williams Appears on Bloomberg TV
• 10:00 am: Fed’s Goolsbee Gives Remarks at Fed Listens Event
• 11:30 am: Fed’s Williams, Waller on Panel at Hoover
• May 10 7:45 pm: Fed’s Musalem, Hammack, Cook on Panel at Hoover

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

The most important words yesterday seemed to be Trump’s comments when talking about Congress passing his tax bill. He said “If that happens, on top of all of these trade deals that we’re doing, this country will hit a point – you better go out and buy stocks now”. On cue, the market bought stocks and extended a rally that began 30 minutes earlier amid the announcement of a US-UK trade deal and Trump’s more conciliatory comments towards China. The rally lost some of its luster late on after reporting that Trump is pushing for a tax hike on very high earners with the S&P 500 (+0.58%) closing 1pp below its intra-days highs, while 2 and 10yr USTs spiked +9.7bps and +10.9bps on the day respectively. So as per usual, there is a lot going on at the moment ahead of the weekend US/China trade talks in Geneva.

The US-UK trade deal stuck to the 10% initial tariff baseline but with carve outs from even higher tariffs for certain sectors like autos (now 10% tariff rate) and steel (0% tariff rate), which would bring the effective tariff rate to slightly below 10%. While details are still being ironed out, in return, the UK has agreed to fast track American goods through customs, purchase $10bn worth of Boeing planes, and lower barriers to American agricultural, chemical, and energy exports. The deal still puts the UK in a worse position than it was before Liberation Day even with Prime Minister Starmer touting it as a “historic victory” between the two countries. The FTSE (-0.32%) hardly moved in the closing 30 mins after the deal was announced with Sterling falling -0.35% on the announcement, giving up earlier gains after the hawkish BoE cut.

This framework agreement is interesting considering the UK is not running a big trade deficit with the US nor was it facing much higher tariffs post Liberation Day anyway. As the first agreement with any country since Trump’s reciprocal tariff announcement, it previews what other “deals” might look like. Other countries may seek to replicate the UK’s exemptions from sectoral tariffs, and accept 10% minimum tariffs in return for US concessions. However, this may be on the optimistic end of outcomes and there is some concern that countries that saw larger reciprocal tariffs announced on April 2 (e.g., Japan and Korea) seem to be making limited progress in trade negotiations. Trump even said at his press conference yesterday that the 10% with the UK is a “low number” and that “others will be higher.”

Probably more important for markets than the UK “deal” itself were Trump’s comments on China, saying that he expects “substantive” talks that could then yield tariff cuts. This comes ahead of Treasury Secretary Bessent’s planned talks with Chinese trade officials in Switzerland this weekend, so we will be keeping our eyes peeled.

These various comments from Trump at the White House saw the S&P 500 move from flattish on the day to around +1.5% higher. But it then fell back to +0.58% by the close as Bloomberg reported that Trump is pushing Congressional Republicans to create a new 39.6% tax bracket for individuals earning at least $2.5m, as a means to offset other tax cuts. Still, it was a positive day overall for equities, with cyclical stocks outperforming and the small cap Russell 2000 rising +1.85%. Other risk assets also gained, with Bitcoin (+6.02%) spiking above the $100,000 level for the first time since early February.

By contrast Treasuries sold off, with 2yr yields (+9.7bps) rising to their highest level in four weeks at 3.88%, while 10yr yields rose +10.9bps to 4.38%. Also contributing to the bond sell off was a slightly weak 30yr auction that followed a strong 10yr auction the previous day. The combination of higher US yields and stronger US risk assets saw the dollar index (+1.03%) post its best day since November 6, the day after Trump’s election win. This morning in Asia, 2yr ( -1.2bps) and 10yr USTs (-2.0bps) yields are reversing a little of yesterday’s move.

The drama of the trade deal rather overshadowed the BOE’s rate cut decision yesterday, which saw more hawkish messaging than markets expected. Although the BOE cut interest rates by a quarter point to 4.25% as DB expected, the vote split went three ways, with five members voting for a 25bp cut, two voting for a 50bps cut, and two voting for no change to the bank rate. The last bit was the surprising element. Overall, BOE governor Bailey said there was a need for a “gradual and careful” approach, citing tariff shocks as a factor to both higher inflation and a weaker growth outlook. 

Two-year gilts (+12.2bps to 3.93%) and the pound both rose in response (before the pound fell later after the trade deal) as investors priced in the hawkish undertones. DB retains its call for three more rate cuts this year, with one more rate cut in early 2026 leading to a terminal rate of 3.25%. See our UK economist’s takeaways here. In other Central Bank news, Norway and Sweden both left their policy rate unchanged as expected.

Elsewhere in European markets, the STOXX 600 (+0.40%) moved higher, with the DAX (+1.02%), CAC 40 (+0.89%) and FTSE MIB (+1.71%) all posting strong gains. Beyond the general risk-on tone, this rally was supported by solid data, including stronger-than-expected German industrial production for March (+3.0% mom vs +1.0% expected). Eurozone bonds saw a more moderate sell off than the US and UK, with 10yr bund yields +5.9bps higher to 2.53%, while OATs (+4.3bps) and BTPs (+3.4bps) outperformed. The narrowing in sovereign spreads saw the 10yr BTP-Bund spread fall to 105bps, its lowest level since October 2021.

The risk-on mood was also visible in the commodity space, with Brent crude oil rising +2.81% to $62.84/bbl, also supported by EIA data showing consecutive weekly declines in US crude inventories for the first time since January. By contrast, gold (-1.75%) fell for a second day running after reaching an all-time high on Monday.

Turning to US data, yesterday saw the weekly initial jobless claims decline 13k to 228k (vs 230k estimates) for the week ending in May 2, erasing what appeared to be an Easter-driven spike the previous week. So that was another sign that the labour market is still “solid” despite the tariffs. Meanwhile, the NY Fed’s consumer survey saw 1yr ahead inflation expectations stable at 3.6%, but with 3yr ahead expectations rising 0.2pp to 3.2%, their highest since July 2022, marking the latest in a string of survey data pointing towards pro-inflationary risks.

Asian equity markets are mostly stronger this morning but with Chinese risk subdued. The Nikkei (+1.43%) is leading the gains, with the Topix (+1.31%) also rising, marking its 11th consecutive day of increases, the longest streak since October 2017. The S&P/ASX 200 (+0.58%) is also higher. Chinese stocks are lagging, with the CSI (-0.23%) and the Shanghai Composite (-0.26%) both declining, while the Hang Seng (-0.01%) is flat after reversing its initial gains. The KOSPI (+0.01%) is struggling to gain momentum following comments from Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, who suggested that trade agreements with South Korea may require significantly more time. S&P (+0.11%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.16%) futures are both showing small increases.

Early morning data revealed that China’s exports demonstrated resilience in April, growing by +8.1% year-on-year, surpassing the expected +2.0%, thus defying predictions that the trade war with the US would begin to have a detrimental impact. However, this growth represents a slowdown from the +12.4% increase recorded in March. Exports to the US fell -21% so the beat reflected increased trade with the rest of Asia and Europe.

Meanwhile, imports contracted by -0.2% year-on-year last month, compared to the anticipated -6.0%, but still marking the third consecutive month of declines. The trade surplus decreased to $96.18 billion from $102.64 billion in March, falling short of the projected $93.09 billion.

To the day ahead now, data releases to expect include Italy’s March industrial production, Canada’s April Jobs report, and Norway’s April CPI. Earnings include Recruit Holdings, Commerzbank and Cellnex.

Authored by Joseph Lord via The Epoch Times,

President Donald Trump announced on May 8 that Judge Jeanine Pirro, best known for her role as a Fox News commentator, had been tapped to serve as interim U.S. attorney for the District of Columbia, one of the most influential prosecutorial positions in the country.

“I am pleased to announce that Judge Jeanine Pirro will be appointed interim United States Attorney for the District of Columbia,” Trump wrote in a post on Truth Social. 

“Jeanine is incredibly well qualified for this position, and is considered one of the Top District Attorneys in the History of the State of New York. She is in a class by herself. Congratulations Jeanine!”

The U.S. attorney for the District of Columbia is uniquely influential, as the post entails oversight of both federal and local D.C. code. It handles cases ranging from homicide to political corruption to federal fraud violations.

The announcement came after Trump withdrew the nomination of his previous pick for the job, attorney Ed Martin. That decision came after Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) announced he wouldn’t support Martin’s confirmation, making it unlikely he could be approved by the Senate.

The announcement came after Trump withdrew the nomination of his previous pick for the job, acting U.S. Attorney for the District of Columbia Ed Martin, due to insurmountable opposition in the Senate. Appointed in January, Martin’s term in the role expires on May 20, and he would need Senate confirmation by then to take up the post in a full capacity.

Trump cited Pirro’s extensive legal background in his post announcing her nomination.

“Jeanine was Assistant District Attorney for Westchester County, New York, and then went on to serve as County Judge, and District Attorney, where she was the first woman ever to be elected to those positions. During her time in office, Jeanine was a powerful crusader for victims of crime. Her establishment of the Domestic Violence Bureau in her Prosecutor’s Office was the first in the Nation.”

“She excelled in all ways,” Trump said.

Pirro previously hosted the show “Justice with Judge Jeanine” on Fox News for ten years. She is currently a co-host of “The Five,” also on Fox News.

She’s become known for her tough-on-crime attitude toward law enforcement, often speaking critically of policies on violent crime, which aligns with Trump’s plans to reduce crime in the nation’s capital.

If confirmed by the Senate, Pirro would instantly become one of the most powerful and important prosecutors in the country, rivaled only by the U.S. attorney for the Southern District of New York, which includes Manhattan.

It remains to be seen whether the Senate will be more amenable to Pirro’s nomination than they were to Martin’s.

Without Senate confirmation, the choice of a permanent replacement will fall to a panel of federal judges on the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia, led by Chief Judge James Boasberg.

Tillis tied this opposition to Martin’s legal work and advocacy related to Jan. 6 defendants arrested under President Joe Biden’s administration.

“If Mr. Martin were being put forward for any district except the district where Jan. 6 happened—the protest happened, I’d probably support him, but not in this district,” Tillis told reporters on Tuesday.

Martin, known for representing defendants charged in the Jan. 6, 2021, breach of the U.S. Capitol, defended his past advocacy in a meeting with Tillis on Monday evening. While the senator said Martin “did a good job” of explaining that some individuals were “over prosecuted,” he said “there were some—two or three hundred of them—that should have never gotten a pardon.”

The senator said he believes that anyone who breached the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, should serve prison time.

“Whether it’s 30 days or three years is debatable,” he said, “but I have no tolerance for anybody who entered the building—and that’s probably where most of the friction was.”

In lieu of the position, Trump announced that he would be appointing Martin to several roles at the Department of Justice where he would oversee investigations into alleged weaponization of law enforcement against conservatives under the Biden administration.

“Ed Martin has done an AMAZING job as interim U.S. Attorney, and will be moving to the Department of Justice as the new Director of the Weaponization Working Group, Associate Deputy Attorney General, and Pardon Attorney,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social.

“In these highly important roles, Ed will make sure we finally investigate the Weaponization of our Government under the Biden Regime, and provide much needed Justice for its victims. Congratulations Ed!”

Authored by Paul D. Thacker via The DisInformation Chronicle,

The FBI launched an investigation last week into security violations at the NIH’s Integrated Research Facility at Fort Detrick following several dangerous incidents in which a contractor cut holes in an employee’s biocontainment suit designed to protect against infection from pathogens such as Ebola, according to interviews and documents viewed by The DisInformation Chronicle.

Violations of safety protocol at the research facility were uncovered by Jeffrey Taubenberger on his first day as Acting Director of the NIAID, the NIH Institute formerly run by Anthony Fauci. Fort Detrick houses multiple government germ labs, including the United States Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases. The Army’s lab was shut down in 2009 and again in 2019, both times due to safety concerns.

“Many issues have been known for months if not years and previous NIAID leadership did nothing about it,” explained an NIH official, detailing problems at the facility which was described as having a “poor culture of safety.”

Incidents in November and March occurred under the watch of NIAID Director Jeanne Marrazzo, who was let go last month during a round of federal cuts. The NIH also uncovered poor documentation of select agents, with logs not matching inventory, although all missing vials have apparently been accounted for.

An NIH employee leaked an incomplete email to Wired Magazine last week which ran a story that downplayed safety breaches and accused Secretary Robert F. Kennedy of shutting the lab down as part of “the latest disruption to federal science agencies.” The article quoted Johns Hopkins researcher Gigi Gronvall complaining that the lab shut down would harm research and cost taxpayer money.

“The sacrifice to research is immense,” Gigi Gronvall told Wired. “If things are unused for a period of time, it will cost more money to get them ready to be used again.”

Wired’s science editor, Tim Marchman, did not respond to questions asking why Wired’s story downplayed security violations and culture of poor safety, nor did he explain whether the magazine plans to correct or update their reporting. Gronvall has been an ardent supporter of dangerous gain-of-function virus research, much of which was ended yesterday with an executive order signed by President Trump.

Gronvall did not respond to questions asking if she felt a lab that studies deadly infectious diseases such as SARS-COV-2, the Ebola virus, Lassa Fever and Eastern equine encephalitis should be shut down following dangerous safety breaches.

Over the weekend, Fox News reported that the lab shut down stemmed from a lover’s spat between researchers in March. One of the individuals retaliated by poking holes in the other person’s personal protective equipment (PPE), and was then fired. Leadership at the facility have been put on leave and the NIH expects the FBI to brief officials after finishing their investigation.

Animals present in the NIH facility are said to be uninfected and under veterinary care. An NIH official stated that no research with pathogens will move forward until a full evaluation and restructuring of the program is completed.

Wired Magazine’s misleading report led to a panic among researchers on Bluesky, who seemed less worried about lab safety than plowing forward with studies. A selection of those posts below