After the busiest week of Q1 earnings season, and a blockbuster week for macro, which included a stronger than expected jobs report, we enter a week that should see attention turn back towards central banks, with the latest Fed (Wed) and BoE (Thu) decisions due. These come as markets have largely shaken off the tariff-driven stress of the past few weeks, as rising optimism on tariff de-escalation and Friday’s solid US payrolls print brought the S&P 500 back above its pre-Liberation Day level, with the index posting its longest winning streak since 2004. Admittedly, the recovery has been far from even across asset classes. A notable laggard is the US dollar, trading nearly -4% below April 2 levels this morning. Investors will continue to keenly watch the tariff headlines and peruse the latest evidence of tariff impacts in this week’s data ranging from the US April ISM services (today) to German factory orders (Wed) and China’s April trade data (Fri).

The full day by day week ahead is at the end as usual, but the main highlight will be the Fed’s decision on Wednesday and Chair Powell’s press conference afterwards. Most economists expect the Fed to keep rates steady and avoid explicit forward guidance about the policy path ahead. They see the overall tone as likely to echo recent Fed comments that the administration’s policies are likely to push the economy away from the Fed’s dual mandate objectives for a period of time but that monetary policy is “well positioned” to respond to the evolving outlook. Rate cut expectations were pushed back after the strong jobs report, with risks for further easing contingent on a weaker labor market rather than the Fed delivering pre-emptive cuts. Fed funds futures are pricing a 37% chance of a cut by the next meeting in June, with a full 25bp cut priced by July.

In terms of the rest of the week ahead, central banks will also be in focus in Europe, with policy decisions from the UK, Norway and Sweden all due on Thursday. The BoE is expected to deliver a 25bp cut that would take the Bank Rate to 4.25%, while Norges and Riksbank are expected to keep rates on hold. Meanwhile, the ECB will hold an informal meeting on May 6-7 to discuss its 2025 monetary policy strategy assessment, which our European economists preview here.

Turning to economic data, in the US the main test ahead of the Fed will be today’s April ISM services reading, which economists see declining to 50.3 from 50.8. That comes as the April data so far, including a decent US ISM manufacturing print last week, have shown few signs of either the US or the global economy ‘breaking’ from the tariff turmoil even as sentiment indicators paint a worrying picture.

It will be a pretty quiet data week in Europe, with Germany’s factory orders (Wed) and industrial production (Thu) prints the highlights, while in Asia the April trade figures out of China (Fri) are expected to show a material slowing amid the tariff disruption.

In corporate earnings, key US releases include Palantir, AMD, Walt Disney and Uber. In Europe, earnings from the likes of Novo Nordisk, Siemens Energy, AP Moller-Maersk, BMW, AB InBev and Rheinmetall will be of extra interest in light of the trade tensions.

Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events

Monday May 5

• Data: US April ISM services, Switzerland April CPI
• Earnings: Vertex, Williams, CRH, Ares, Diamondback Energy, Ford, BioNTech, ON Semiconductor
• Auctions: US 3-yr Notes ($58bn)

Tuesday May 6

• Data: US March trade balance, China April Caixin services PMI, UK April official reserves changes, new car registrations, France March industrial production, Italy April services PMI, Eurozone March PPI, Canada March international merchandise trade
• Earnings: Palantir, AMD, Arista Networks, Intesa Sanpaolo, Ferrari, Constellation Energy, Zoetis, Marriott, Coupang, Fidelity, Electronic Arts, Datadog, IQVIA, Rivian, Vestas, Astera Labs, Zalando
• Auctions: US 10-yr Notes ($42bn)

Wednesday May 7

• Data: US March consumer credit, China April foreign reserves, UK April construction PMI, Germany March factory orders, April construction PMI, France March trade balance, current account balance, Q1 wages, private sector payrolls, Italy March retail sales, Eurozone March retail sales, Sweden April CPI
• Central banks: Fed’s decision
• Earnings: Teva, Novo Nordisk, Walt Disney, Uber, ARM, MercadoLibre, DoorDash, Fortinet, Siemens Healthineers, BMW, Carvana, Axon, Vistra, Flutter Entertainment, Occidental Petroleum, Barrick Gold, Legrand, Rockwell Automation, Vonovia, Orsted, Pandora, Telecom Italia, Sandisk

Thursday May 8

• Data: US Q1 nonfarm productivity, Q1 unit labor costs, March wholesale trade sales, April NY Fed 1-yr inflation expectations, initial jobless claims, UK April RICS house price balance, Germany March industrial production, trade balance
• Central banks: BoE, Riksbank and Norges Bank decision, BoJ minutes of the March meeting, BoE’s April DMP survey, BoC financial stability report
• Earnings: Toyota Motor, AB InBev, Shopify, ConocoPhillips, Nintendo, DBS, McKesson, Enel, Rheinmetall, Siemens Energy, Coinbase, Cheniere Energy, Infineon, Kenvue, HubSpot, TKO Group, Leonardo, AP Moller – Maersk, Warner Bros Discovery, Toast, Expedia, Pinterest, DraftKings, Affirm, Tapestry, Illumina, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena, Rocket Lab, Paramount Global, Davide Campari-Milano, Crocs, Lyft, Puma, Peloton, Sweetgreen
• Auctions: US 30-yr Bonds ($25bn)

Friday May 9

• Data: China April trade balance, Q1 BoP current account balance, Japan March labor cash earnings, household spending, leading index, coincident index, Italy March industrial production, Canada April jobs report, Norway April CPI
• Central banks: Fed’s Williams, Waller, Kugler, Goolsbee and Barr speak, ECB’s Simkus and Rehn speak, BoE’s Bailey and Pill speak

Earnings: Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Recruit Holdings, Commerzbank, Cellnex

* * *

Finally turning to the US, the key economic data release this week is the ISM services report on Monday. The May FOMC meeting is on Wednesday. The post-meeting statement will be released at 2:00 PM ET, followed by Chair Powell’s press conference at 2:30 PM. There are several speaking engagements by Fed officials on Friday, when the blackout period for the May FOMC meeting ends.

Monday, May 5

• 09:45 AM S&P Global US services PMI, April final (consensus 51.2, last 51.4)
• 10:00 AM ISM services index, April (GS 49.8, consensus 50.3, last 50.8): We estimate that the ISM services index declined by 1pt to 49.8 in April, reflecting sequential softening in our non-manufacturing survey tracker (-1.1pt to 49.4 in April).

Tuesday, May 6

• 08:30 AM Trade balance, March (GS -$138.0bn, consensus -$136.7bn, last -$122.7bn): We estimate that the trade deficit widened to $138.0bn in March, reflecting higher imports ahead of tariff increases and a modest decline in travel exports as a result of foreign boycotts.

Wednesday, May 7

• There are no major economic data releases scheduled.
• 02:00 PM FOMC statement, May 6-7 meeting:  We expect the FOMC to leave the fed funds rate unchanged at its May meeting and pushed back the first rate cut in our forecast to the July FOMC meeting (vs. June previously) after stronger-than-expected payrolls and ISM readings last week. As discussed in our FOMC preview, we expect Chair Powell to highlight that tariffs pose risks to both sides of the FOMC’s dual mandate goals of maximum employment and price stability. While the FOMC appears to be setting a higher bar for rate cuts than during the 2019 trade war, we do not think that high inflation would deter it from cutting if the unemployment rate begins to trend higher as the tariff shock hits the economy.

Thursday, May 8

• 08:30 AM Nonfarm productivity, Q1 preliminary (GS -0.9%, consensus -0.7%, last +1.5%); Unit labor costs, Q1 preliminary (GS +5.2%, consensus +5.2%, last +2.2%);
• 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended May 3 (GS 225k, consensus 230k, last 241k): Continuing jobless claims, week ended April 26 (consensus 1,892k, last 1,916k)
• 11:00 AM New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations, April (last +3.58%); New York Fed 3-year inflation expectations, April (last +3.00%); New York Fed 5-year inflation expectations, April (last +2.86%): The New York Fed will release its measures of inflation expectations for April. The University of Michigan’s 12-month measure of inflation expectations increased by 1.5pp in April on the back of news about tariffs.

Friday, May 9

• There are no major economic data releases scheduled.
• 06:15 AM New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President John Williams will deliver a keynote address and will take part in a Q&A at the Reykjavik Economic Conference. Text and moderated Q&A are expected. On April 11th, Williams said that “the current modestly restrictive stance of monetary policy is entirely appropriate given the solid labor market and inflation still above our 2 percent goal,” noting that it positions the FOMC “well to adjust to changing circumstances that affect the achievement of our dual mandate goals.”
• 06:45 AM Fed Governor Barr speaks: Fed Governor Michael Barr will deliver a speech on artificial intelligence and the labor market at the Reykjavik Economic Conference. Text and Q&A are expected.
• 08:30 AM Fed Governor Kugler speaks: Fed Governor Adriana Kugler will deliver a speech on maximum employment at the Reykjavik Economic Conference. Text and Q&A are expected. On April 22nd, Kugler said she supported “maintaining the current policy rate for as long as these upside risks to inflation continue, while economic activity and employment remain stable.”
• 10:00 AM Chicago Fed President Goolsbee (FOMC voter) speaks: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will deliver opening remarks at a Fed Listens event in Chicago. On April 21st, Goolsbee said that the FOMC would want “to figure out the throughline” of where tariff policies ultimately settle, how much retaliation there will be, and how much impact the tariffs will have on supply chains “before we jump to action” on monetary policy.
• 11:30 AM New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) and Fed Governor Waller speak: New York Fed President John Williams and Fed Governor Christopher Waller will take part in a panel discussion titled “John Taylor and Taylor Rules in Policy” at the Hoover Institution’s Monetary Policy Conference. Text and Q&A are expected. On April 14th, Waller said he thought “monetary policy is meaningfully restricting economic activity” and that if high tariffs induce a slowdown that is “significant and even threatens a recession, then I would expect to favor cutting the FOMC’s policy rate sooner, and to a greater extent, than I had previously thought.” That said, Waller also noted that he would support “a more limited monetary policy response” in a smaller-tariff scenario with limited effects on inflation and growth.
• 07:45 PM St. Louis Fed President Musalem (FOMC voter), Cleveland Fed President Hammack (FOMC non-voter), and Fed Governor Cook speak:  St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, and Fed Governor Lisa Cook will take part in a panel discussion at the Hoover Institution’s Monetary Policy Conference. Text is expected for President Musalem and Governor Cook’s remarks. Q&A is expected. On April 11th, Musalem judged that “monetary policy is currently well positioned given the state of the economy and the balance of risks.” On April 16th, Hammack noted that she would rather “be slow and move in the right direction than move quickly in the wrong direction.” And on April 5th, Cook noted that she placed “more weight on scenarios where risks are skewed to the upside for inflation and to the downside for growth,” and that those scenarios “could pose challenges for monetary policy.”

Soruce: DB, Goldman

Authored by Matt Taibbi via Racket News,

The press watchdog Fairness and Accuracy in Reporting, or FAIR.org, which I read regularly as a young reporter, weighed in on the NPR debate:

One could look at this threat as part of Trump’s general distrust of major media and desire to seek revenge against outlets he believes have been unfair to him… Going after public broadcasters is also a part of the neo-fascist playbook authoritarian leaders around the world are using to clamp down on dissent and keep the public in the dark, all in the name of protecting the people from partisan reporting. That’s largely because strong public media systems and open democracy go hand in hand.

Titled “Cuts to PBS, NPR Part of Authoritarian Playbook,” the above is either satire or written by someone consciously ignoring the history of state media. Yes, Car Talk and the MacNeil/Lehrer report were cool, but outlets like Neues Deustchland, Télé Zaïre, and Tung Padewat more often went “hand in hand” with fingernail factories or firing squads than democracy. It’s bizarre to see Americans trying to whitewash this.

The office of my first full-time reporting job with the Moscow Times was in the Pravda building. I used to spend lunch hours walking through the doors shown in the photo above, beering up in a cafeteria with writers from the sports section of Komsomolskaya Pravda, at the time the Guinness Book record-holder for world’s largest circulation. With over 21 million readers, “Komsomolka” sure as hell qualified as “strong public media,” but hardly went “hand in hand” with democracy. Like the rest of ex-Soviet media, its owed its circulation to decades of forcing insane lies on readers, like cheery dispatches about the “Doctor’s Plot” purges of 1953:

The Russian muckrakers of the 1990s threw themselves into the job like superheroes once they got a whiff of freedom, which in their case usually meant being disentangled from the state. That period, like the lives of many of those folks, didn’t last long. Vladimir Putin sent masked police into the last independent TV station on May 11, 2000, capping less than ten years of quasi-free speech. “Strong state media” remained, but actual journalism vanished.

People who grew up reading the BBC or AFP may imagine a correlation between a state media and democracy, but a more dependable indicator of a free society is whether or not obnoxious private journalism (like the Russian Top Secret, whose editor Artyom Borovik died in a mysterious plane crash) is allowed to proliferate. As for those once-storied European networks, most have now become parodies, operating in concert with multiple official review operations like BBC Verify or the “Trusted Flaggers” of the EU’s Digital Services Act. This layered messaging system essentially guarantees favorable coverage of public policy and is more dangerous than asking the listeners of stations like NPR to pay for media they like.

As anyone who’s read Hate Inc. knows, I was until recently a proponent of public incentives for journalism, which is necessary but hard to fund. The Post Office Act of 1792 charged publishers fractions of normal postage rates. Western expansion was aided by gratis rides on the Pony Express for “newspaper slips,” and the Communications Act of 1934 helped birth broadcast news by requiring licensees of public airwaves to operate in the “public interest, convenience, and necessity.” After the Public Broadcasting Act of 1967 passed, we enjoyed an imperfect system that left room for public and private innovations, from Sesame Street to Radical Chic. Which was great, but how nuts do you have to be to think “strong state media” doesn’t have a dark side? Is the history of this stuff just not being taught?

The Trump administration has unveiled an early discretionary spending request ahead of its formal FY2026 budget submission. The proposal aims to cut discretionary funding by $140 billion – roughly 0.5% of GDP, and significantly shift the balance between defense and non-defense spending.

According to Goldman Sachs’ Alec Phillips, the proposal would reallocate $119 billion (0.4% of GDP) from non-defense agencies to defense and border-security-related activities. This includes a $163 billion allocation for FY2026 as part of a broader $325 billion funding assumption for defense and border security within a forthcoming budget reconciliation package. Non-defense agencies – excluding departments such as Homeland Security and Justice – would face an average cut of 23%.

Yet, these headline figures may exaggerate the near-term fiscal impact, as Congress is likely to authorize higher spending than the White House proposes, resulting in only a modest 1% decline in discretionary spending in real terms for FY2026.

Proposed Shift from Non-Defense to Defense Spending

The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) is proposing a $140 billion reduction in discretionary funding, equivalent to 0.5% of GDP, for FY2026. Of this, $119 billion (0.4% of GDP) would be shifted from non-defense to defense spending, with civilian agencies outside of Homeland Security and Justice facing average cuts of 23%.

This marks a sharp shift in tone from previous administrations, including the first Trump term, which often signaled concern about the deficit but ultimately supported expansive spending. As Academy Securities notes:

“Unlike in Trump 1.0 (and pretty much in every other administration which all claimed to be somewhat cautious on the deficit but then spent on everything), there is austerity here.”

The proposal assumes Congress will provide $325 billion in funding for defense and border security in the upcoming reconciliation package, with $163 billion allocated for FY2026.

Realized Spending Cuts Will Likely Be Smaller

Despite the headline cuts, Phillips anticipates only a modest decline in actual spending from this segment in FY2026 for several reasons:

• Delayed outlays: Agencies typically spend appropriated funds over multiple years. Historically, just over half of fiscal year appropriations are spent in the same year.

• Expiration of emergency funds: Most of the proposed net reduction reflects the non-renewal of $118 billion in emergency spending passed in late 2024. Goldman had not expected that amount to be renewed, while the Congressional Budget Office projects the spending out of those funds to be even slower than usual.

• Slow disbursement of past emergency funds: The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that only half of the 2024 emergency funds would be spent in 2025–2026.

These points suggest that the actual decline in spending will be far smaller than top-line figures imply.

From Academy Securities’ vantage point, that could help assuage markets:

“That should help interest rates if it looks like the budget can progress without the austerity measures being dramatically reduced (always a possibility in D.C.).”

Legislative Timing Likely to Delay Final Budget

Phillips projects that Congress is unlikely to settle spending totals for this segment of the budget until much later in 2025. A reconciliation bill that includes supplemental funds for defense and border security is not expected before early August, while standard appropriations bills could take even longer.

This raises the risk of a government shutdown when the new fiscal year begins on October 1, though analysts expect the government to operate under continuing resolutions (CRs) that keep funding flat in nominal terms – possibly well into 2026.

As Academy notes, these delays may begin to have market effects:

“Negotiations will start to move markets in the coming weeks.”

Budget Deficit Expected to Hold Steady Despite Spending Cuts

Even with slightly lower discretionary outlays, Goldman forecasts a 1% real decline in the portion of federal spending that contributes to GDP. However, this is outweighed by rising mandatory spending, which continues to grow due to entitlements and interest obligations.

On the revenue side, Goldman expects:

• Modestly higher tariff revenue, but

• Offsetting declines in income and payroll taxes, due to both a downgraded growth outlook and the likely extension of Trump-era tax cuts.

Academy Securities adds a key nuance:

“Only additional or new tax cuts will really be stimulative. The extension of existing cuts… won’t be a boost to the economy since virtually no one is adjusting their spending on the assumption that those won’t be extended.”

In other words, extending the current tax cuts may prevent a drag on consumption, but will not provide meaningful new stimulus. Conversely, failure to extend them could cause a sharp pullback.

Ultimately, Goldman projects:

• FY2026 deficit: $1.95 trillion, or 6.2% of GDP

• FY2027 deficit: $2.15 trillion, or 6.6% of GDP

Bottom Line

The 2026 budget proposal introduces a rhetorical commitment to austerity that differentiates it from past White House strategies. But procedural hurdles, slow disbursement of prior-year funds, and political resistance in Congress suggest that the real-world impact on fiscal aggregates may be modest—at least in the near term.

Markets are likely to begin reacting as budget negotiations progress, particularly as the fate of tax policy and defense spending becomes clearer.

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Pennsylvania-based Aurora Innovation, Inc. has launched commercial self-driving trucking service in the state of Texas, conducting customer deliveries between Dallas and Houston starting this week, the company said in a May 1 statement.

The driverless trucking service will use Aurora’s flagship product “Aurora Driver,” a self-driving system that can “see over 450 meters ahead,” according to the company. Aurora says the truck is capable of spotting and reacting to pedestrians “up to 11 seconds sooner than human drivers at highway speeds at night.”

“To date, the Aurora Driver has completed over 1,200 miles without a driver,” said the statement. “The milestone makes Aurora the first company to operate a commercial self-driving service with heavy-duty trucks on public roads.”

“Aurora plans to expand its driverless service to El Paso, Texas, and Phoenix, Arizona, by the end of 2025.”

Aurora’s launch customers are logistics companies Uber Freight and Hirschbach Motor Lines, both of which have had “long-standing supervised commercial pilots with Aurora.”

Aurora Driver is reportedly an SAE L4 self-driving system that is being deployed for long-haul trucking for the first time.

SAE L4 refers to Level 4 of the nonprofit SAE International’s measure of driving automation that runs from Level 0 to 5.

At the L4 level, the features of the driverless system can “drive the vehicle under limited conditions and will not operate unless all required conditions are met,” according to the SAE website.

Pedals and steering wheels may or may not be installed in SAE L4 vehicles. The automated features of the system won’t require a person sitting inside the vehicle to take over driving.

“We founded Aurora to deliver the benefits of self-driving technology safely, quickly, and broadly,” said Chris Urmson, CEO and co-founder of Aurora. “Riding in the back seat for our inaugural trip was an honor of a lifetime—the Aurora Driver performed perfectly.”

Meanwhile, autonomous trucks pose a critical employment issue for truck drivers.

In an April 8 statement, the International Brotherhood of Teamsters, one of the largest labor unions in the United States, said they testified at the Nevada state capitol, asking lawmakers to support Senate Bill 395.

The bill requires that all commercial vehicles weighing over 26,000 pounds have a trained human safety operator behind the wheel.

“For Big Tech companies to think they can come into any state and replace the jobs of hardworking union members with this dangerous and inferior technology is an insult to professional drivers everywhere,” said Peter Finn, president of Teamsters Joint Council 7.

“SB 395 is critical to protecting the middle class. That is why we are demanding that Nevada lawmakers vote in favor of this legislation.”

The bill passed the Nevada Senate on April 16 and is currently under consideration in the Assembly, where it was recently referred to the Committee on Growth and Infrastructure.

Aurora Safety, DOT Relaxes Rules

Aurora said its flagship truck is fitted with a powerful computer and sensors that enable it to operate safely on highways.

“In over four years of supervised pilot hauls, the Aurora Driver has delivered over 10,000 customer loads across three million autonomous miles,” the company said.

“It has also demonstrated extraordinary capabilities, including predicting red light runners, avoiding collisions, and detecting pedestrians in the dark hundreds of meters away.”

Before beginning operations, Aurora had completed a “safety case” for its vehicles. A safety case is a documented assurance of the vehicle maintaining safety.

The company said it had briefed several government entities about Aurora Driver’s readiness for driverless operations, including the National Transportation Safety Board, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Texas Department of Public Safety, and Texas Department of Transportation.

Aurora’s driverless truck service launch comes as the Department of Transportation (DOT) said on April 4 that it would ease some of the safety regulations involved in the development of self-driving vehicles.

Specifically, the agency will expand the Automated Vehicle Exemption Program to domestically-produced automated vehicles (AVs) as well. The program currently only applies to imported AVs.

“This Administration understands that we’re in a race with China to out-innovate, and the stakes couldn’t be higher,” said Secretary of Transportation Sean P. Duffy in a April 24 statement. “As part of DOT’s innovation agenda, our new framework will slash red tape and move us closer to a single national standard that spurs innovation and prioritizes safety.”

Advocacy group Advocates for Highway and Auto Safety criticized the decision, saying that “troubling incidents” involving automated vehicles have already occurred in multiple cities.

If proper safety regulations, safeguards, transparency, and accountability are not maintained regarding the issue, the deployment of AVs could result in “deadly consequences,” it said.

John Bozzella, CEO of Alliance for Automotive Innovation, welcomed the DOT move, calling it “Unequivocally good—and overdue—news,” the group said in an April 24 statement.

“Yes, we’ve got to move smartly and safely. But this announcement shows the administration is also proceeding with a sense of urgency, so we don’t cede AV leadership to China and other countries. Time is of the essence,” he added.

In the latest chapter in the country’s months-long political drama that has seen an election thrown out and the winner charged with political crimes, 38-year-old conservative nationalist George Simion decisively won the first round of balloting in Romania’s “do-over” presidential election, sending him to a May 18 runoff where he’ll face centrist Bucharest mayor Nicusor Dan. 

Simion has likened his political philosophy to Donald Trump’s, saying his Alliance for the Union of Romanians party is “a Trumpist party,” and promising to “Make Romania Great Again.” The win is a buzzkill for Western leftists who’ve been enjoying the afterglow of comeback victories in Canada and Australia. 

Though his first-round win was expected, Simion far outperformed the polling, taking 41% of the vote, versus the 30% projected by a recent poll of polls. Dan took 21%, edging Crin Antonescu, a candidate from the current governing coalition, who took 20%. Simion clearly has the inside track for the runoff, as observers say he’s likely to gain quite a few votes from members of other parties whose beliefs align more closely with Simion than Dan. “Simion has a bigger pool of votes than Dan at the moment,” political scientist Cristian Pirvulescu told Reuters.

Simion called the election a “victory for Romanian dignity…Despite the obstacles, despite the manipulation, despite a press paid to demean us day after day, Romanians have stood up.” The election has been closely watched by Western powers, as it could reshape Romania’s relationships with the European Union and NATO. 

However, while he’s criticized both entities, don’t expect Simion to usher Romania out of either of them. In various comments leading up to the election, he discounted the idea of Romania exiting NATO or the EU, sounded alarms over the supposed Russian menace, advocated continued sanctions against Moscow, and embraced increased European military spending.  Consider these Simion quotes from an interview with the Financial Times: 

Simion has promised, if elected, to help secure a position in Romanian government for Calin Georgescu — perhaps as prime minister. In a huge, poll-defying upset in November, nationalist Georgescu won the first round of balloting in Romania’s first go at this presidential election. Then, just two days before the runoff, the country’s Constitutional Court threw out the election and ordered it to be started anew — based on shaky allegations that his victory was the result of Russian interference. 

Georgescu was barred from running again. In February, Georgescu was arrested and questioned as he faced Orwellian allegations of disseminating “false information” and “incitement to actions against the constitutional order.” Upon his release from custody, he was forbidden from appearing on mass media or creating social media accounts. Huge protests followed each move by the government to banish Georgescu from politics and discourse. In addition to charges of illegal campaign tactics, he’s also been charged with helping to establish an organization “with a fascist, racist or xenophobic character.”

Campaigning last fall, Georgescu pledged to restore Romanian sovereignty and put an end to what he characterizes as subservience to NATO and the EU. He took a hard line against the presence of NATO’s missile defense system that’s based in Deveselu, southern Romania, calling it a “shame of diplomacy” that is more confrontational than peace-promoting. He has also pushed for Romania to pursue a non-interventionist policy in the Ukraine war, and said US arms-makers were manipulating the conflict.

Whatever his degree of nationalism, Simion is poised to become the third nationalist leading an eastern European country, alongside Hungary’s Viktor Orban and Slovakia’s Robert Fico — that is, unless the leftists once again find a way to bar a popular right-wing candidate from victory.  

Millions of Americans, including those among the lowest income brackets, truly have no idea how good life is for them.  The grass is always greener somewhere else in the world until people actually take the plunge and move to the neighbor’s house only to discover it’s crack den.  

The self hatred that progressives feel over being American and living in the US is a first-world luxury that few others can afford.  Most of humanity doesn’t have time to dwell obsessively on their nation’s global image; they are too busy barely surviving.  The argument often regurgitated by over-privileged activists on Reddit forums and in college classrooms is that American “exceptionalism” is problematic because there’s nothing exceptional about America.

This claim is debunked by the fact that most of the rest of the world wants to come to the US and very few people want to leave.  Those that do leave are usually among the wealthiest, or, they are gullible and think they can find something better overseas.  It usually doesn’t go well for them.

One black leftist recently figured this out after moving to Africa.  She assumed she would fit right in, but now says she actually prefers dealing with American “racism” over the scammers, grifters and of course, the lack of snacks.  Her complaints have gone viral because they expose the common leftist delusion that the US is somehow one of the worst places on Earth.  They simply don’t understand how lucky they are until they step outside of their echo chamber.

People seriously don’t realize how good they have it in America.

Look what this woman has to say after she moved to Africa. 👇 pic.twitter.com/9SYmQs9sLe

— Declaration of Memes (@LibertyCappy) May 4, 2025

A minimal amount of research will drudge up numerous accounts similar to this one – Most black Americans simply cannot assimilate after relocating to Africa and most Americans don’t do well in regions devoid of western culture.  The ultra-rich are fine wherever they go, but middle class expatriats have difficult experiences.  Black comedians and celebrities have been trying to warn their community for decades about this.  The venerable Patrice O’Neil didn’t mince words on the idea of “going back to Africa”.

Comedian Patrice ‘O Neal spitting facts on the kakhole that is Africa pic.twitter.com/53sFaKEcil

— Kgomotso #MaAfrikaBorwaPele (@SA1st_PSAF) May 2, 2023

When confronting the issue of racism in America, it should be noted that most of the world treats Black Americans differently.  Not necessarily because of skin color but because of their cultural habits and behaviors.

Charlestone White explains why no one likes Black Americans 😳

“We are disrespectful, arrogant and loud” pic.twitter.com/r5As8OEkGH

— Charging… (@RedPillSayian) December 12, 2024

Perhaps what black leftists in America interpret as “racism” is actually cultural burnout; a national or even global acknowledgment by other groups that they are tired of dealing with all the baggage that the black American community tends to bring with them?  And if this is the case, then it’s unlikely that there are many other places in the world that will give them the time of day the way American society does. 

Via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com,

Legendary financial and geopolitical cycle analyst Martin Armstrong is back with an avalanche of problems coming to the world starting in 2025.  

Depressions, defaults, debt crises and wars are going to sweep the globe, according to Armstrong and his “Socrates” predictive computer program.  Armstrong has called every big economic turn in the past three decades.  He predicted Trump would win the 2024 Presidential Election in a landslide many months ahead of November.  Armstrong called the huge stock crash of 1987 to the day.  He predicted the dot com boom and bust in 2000.  He was spot on calling for the Great Recession of 2008 and 2009, and now, we are headed for more big turns.  Armstrong says,

“The last one turned on May 7th of last year.  That was the same day Putin had his inauguration, and it was the same day a couple of Ukrainian colonels tried to assassinate Zelensky.  From there, we are turning down into a global recession, which won’t bottom until about 2028.  Central banks started cutting rates right after that, and I think Canada was the first.  It’s going to be more of a depression in Europe, a very sharp recession in China, and it won’t be as bad in the United States. . . . When you create a debt crisis, that’s what causes a depression.  The stock market going down is the least damage to an economy.”

Europe has trillions of dollars of unpayable debt, and Armstrong says, “The leadership knows if they don’t have war, the people will come after them.”

What will be the next big turn?  Spoiler alert, it has to do with war in Ukraine and Russia.  Armstrong says,

“Europe does not want peace.  Look at things the EU has said: that Russia is too big and has to be broken up.  I have very good contacts very high up, and they really do think they can conquer Russia.  It has $75 trillion in natural resource assets.  They will then control that . . . Once they get their hands on that . . . they will rise to the top of countries of the world,  like the Roman Empire will be resurrected or something.”

But instead of the EU winning a war against Russia, Armstrong predicts, 

“They will lose bigtime.  The third time is not going to be the charm. . . . The euro will disappear, not the dollar.”

The timing of the next big turn for war?  Armstrong says,

“After May 15, war is turning up (in Ukraine) and it will be turning up into 2026.  If I am Putin, there is no way I am signing a peace deal.  Putin signed a peace deal (in 2015) and what did they do?  They built an army while Russia didn’t.”

Armstrong predicts China will come in on the side of Russia, and there could be as many as “one billion dead and wounded” as a result.  

What should the US do?  Armstrong says, 

“I have been talking to people in Washington, and I have told them to ‘Get the hell out of NATO.’  There are plenty of people warming up to that idea.”

Armstrong predicts if that happens, capital will leave Europe and flow into the US as a safe haven.

Armstrong also thinks gold will hit $5,000 per ounce at the next target, but it will not hit that price until war takes off in Europe and Ukraine.  

Armstrong also thinks the Democrat party will split in two, and they will not retake the House of Representatives in 2026.

Does the conflict between Pakistan and India blow up or blow over?  Armstrong says, “My computer (Socrates) says it blows up.”

There is much more in the 64-minute in-depth interview.

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with Martin Armstrong as he gives his analysis on war, default, depression and unpayable debt that will make a huge mess for the world for 5.3.25.

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We think it’s time we can officially present the ESG grift – which we have spoken out against and called a scam for the better part of the last decade – dead.

The latest casualty? BP’s top sustainability executive, Giulia Chierchia, will leave the company on June 1, marking another high-profile exit and an obvious signpost in the oil giant’s sharp pivot away from green energy and environmental, social, and governance (ESG) goals, according to The Guardian.

Chierchia, who joined BP in 2020 to help steer it toward a “net zero” future, was hired by then-CEO Bernard Looney and became the architect of the company’s now-defunct sustainability strategy.

Her departure will not trigger a replacement; instead, her team will be folded into other business units to “simplify our structure” and enable “quicker decision-making and clearer accountabilities,” BP said.

Chierchia’s exit follows closely on the heels of BP Chairman Helge Lund’s announcement that he too would step down next year. Both executives had come under growing scrutiny after BP formally abandoned its green energy transition in favor of doubling down on oil and gas, a shift driven by falling profits and pressure from shareholders.

“In February, we announced a fundamental reset of our strategy – to grow the upstream, focus the downstream and invest with discipline in the transition – and we have already made significant progress,” said CEO Murray Auchincloss.

The Guardian writes that at BP’s latest annual general meeting, Lund faced a shareholder revolt over his role in the collapse of the green strategy. Meanwhile, activist hedge fund Elliott Management has taken a 5% stake in the company and reportedly demanded a full reversal of its low-carbon investments and an overhaul of its board.

BP’s financial performance has deteriorated, with first-quarter 2025 profits nearly halved to $1.4 billion from $2.7 billion a year prior. Its full-year 2024 profits fell by a third to $8.9 billion. Shares dropped over 2% on the news, continuing a trend of underperformance relative to competitors since Looney first charted a net-zero course.

In response, the company has pledged to slash spending, particularly in renewable ventures, and accelerate asset sales. It plans to cut 2025 capital spending by $500 million to $14.5 billion and raise divestments to as much as $4 billion this year. The goal is to offload $20 billion in assets by the end of 2027.

BP’s ESG era—once held up as a model for oil industry transformation—is now officially over, buried under investor discontent, falling returns, and an unmistakable return to fossil fuel fundamentals.

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Following massive local election gains for Reform UK, the populist Party headed by Nigel Farage, the legacy media revealed just how completely out of touch with British people it is.

Here is the headline the Financial Times published.

An unwelcome surge of rightwing populism in Britain https://t.co/Dow38Svpf3

— Financial Times (@FT) May 2, 2025

Yeah, they seemed pretty welcome, given how much they trounced everyone else in democratic elections, winning 677 seats out of around 1,600 being contested.

“Unwelcome at our dinner parties”*

— Man of the Dissident Right… (@anglowanderer) May 2, 2025

The Conservatives lost a whopping 676 seats, one less than Reform gained, while Labour, the Party that won a general election LAST YEAR, won just 99 seats and lost more than 180.

Monumental. People have had enough. pic.twitter.com/jxpta4GdLj

— Paul Joseph Watson (@PrisonPlanet) May 2, 2025

It’s pretty clear that Reform UK was “welcome” as far as voters were concerned.

Unwelcome? Says who? It’s not evil to think that your countrymen should be the first priority of your country.

— XBradTC (@xbradtc) May 2, 2025

Nevertheless, the FT described the monumental victory as a “populist-nationalist bug” adding that Reform found just the right “blend of far-right anti-immigration and anti-net zero stances,” to give “both main parties a drubbing.

Are you sure it’s unwelcome?

— The Panic (@ThePanic16) May 3, 2025

The media, like Kier Starmer, can bandy around the pejorative term ‘far right’ all they want, the fact is it’s clear a majority of people in a Britain are now acutely aware that mass uncontrolled and incentivised immigration is degrading quality of life throughout the country.

The mainstream media elites can’t hide their disdain for ordinary people

Instead of trying to understand their concerns they write them off with derogatories like “right-wing populism”.

I have nothing but contempt for them https://t.co/GgfQ0sFpDN

— Winston Marshall (@MrWinMarshall) May 3, 2025

From collapsing metropolises to quiet country villages. No where is exempt from its reach.

Funny isn’t it that when the side the establishment media falls on wins big, it’s championed as ‘the will of the people’ but when the other side wins it’s some sort of ‘unwelcome’ anomaly.

Maybe it has something to do with all the unwelcome immigrants.

— Stuck (@StuckInMiddleU) May 2, 2025

“We must destroy democracy in order to save it.”

— Nick Uva (@nickuva) May 2, 2025

Unwelcome to far Left busybodies who demand total control.

Yes. https://t.co/kcWG323ISy

— Fusilli Spock (@awstar11) May 3, 2025

There’s a simple fix to this populism ‘bug’.

If you don’t like populism, stop being communists. https://t.co/dMD5MO54W0

— Wontonimo Bae .🤍. (@wontonimobae) May 3, 2025

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Russian President Vladimir Putin has once again made more ultra-provocative remarks aimed at the West concerning Russia’s nuclear doctrine.

In a fresh interview with a Russian broadcaster that aired Sunday Putin claimed that the West “wanted to provoke us, wanted to force us to make mistakes” on a strategic level.

He described, in an unprecedented allegation, that Ukraine’s Western supporters in NATO were essentially trying to bait Moscow into deploying nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Putin emphasized that Russia exercised restraint in this matter.

“They wanted to provoke us, wanted us to make mistakes,” the Russian leader asserted in the Rossiya-1 interview. “And there was no need to use the weapons that you mentioned. I hope that it won’t be necessary,” he added, referencing the interviewer’s question which mentioned nuclear arms.

“We have enough capabilities and means to finish what we started in 2022 with the result that Russia needs,” Putin concluded. He emphasized that Russia is able to carry through with its military goals without resorting to nuclear arms.

No evidence was given for this charge; however, it’s been a constant theme of the Kremlin to accuse Zelensky’s NATO backers of seeking constant escalation of the conflict, and the avoidance of a peace settlement (which would result in Russian control over eastern Ukraine and Crimea).

RT also commented in featuring the fresh statements, “Russia has repeatedly confirmed its stance that the use of nuclear weapons will be its last choice. In November, Putin has approved Russia’s updated nuclear doctrine.”

The West became alarmed when earlier in the Ukraine war Putin ordered tactical nuclear warheads to be stationed in Belarus. These are reportedly overseen by Russian officers in Belarus, and with President Lukashenko’s permission.

Starting in late September, Russia had unveiled its expanded nuclear doctrine which proposed a lowered threshold for Russian strategic forces’ use of nukes.

This was due to the “emergence of new sources of military threats and risks for Russia and our allies” – amid fiercer drone and missile attacks coming across the border from Ukraine.

Also, Moscow has said US-produced F-16s which are now being flowing by Ukraine’s air force are capable of carrying nuclear weapons.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov previously described that Russia’s nuclear doctrine changes mean that “the Russian Federation reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in the event of aggression using conventional weapons against it and/or the Republic of Belarus.”