More than 125,000 New Yorkers relocated to Florida over a recent five-year span, draining the Empire State of nearly $14 billion in income, according to a new report from the Citizens Budget Commission (CBC), a nonpartisan fiscal watchdog, reported on by the New York Post.

Roughly a third of those fleeing New York City—some 41,251 residents—resettled in Miami-Dade, Palm Beach, and Broward counties between 2018 and 2022, resulting in a $10 billion loss in adjusted gross income (AGI) for the city. An additional $3.8 billion in income was lost to other Florida destinations.

“They are getting something more beneficial to them,” said CBC President Andrew Rein. “The key is with any place you need the benefits to outweigh the cost. The question right now for New York is what do we offer?”

The CBC attributes the exodus to a mix of affordability concerns, public safety, quality of life, and lingering pandemic effects. Only 30% of New Yorkers rated city life as “good or excellent” in 2023—down from 50% pre-pandemic.

The Post writes that high-income earners led the charge. Miami-Dade saw an influx of ex-New Yorkers with average incomes topping $266,000. Palm Beach newcomers earned around $189,000, while Fairfield County, Connecticut, drew residents with an average income of $141,000. Notably, New York’s top 1% of earners pay 40% of the state’s income taxes.

“One of the critical issues of our time is keeping our competitiveness for businesses and residents,” Rein said. “We need to focus on ensuring we don’t tax too much, that we are a safe place to live, and that people find quality of life to be high.”

Florida wasn’t the only winner. Nearby suburbs absorbed thousands of city dwellers:

• Long Island gained 138,000 NYC expats, costing the city $11.1 billion in AGI.

• Westchester County added nearly 60,000, for a $5 billion hit.

• Fairfield County took in 31,000, costing $4.9 billion.

• Bergen County, New Jersey, saw over 30,000 newcomers, with a $1.8 billion impact.

Altogether, relocations within the Northeast accounted for a $22.8 billion loss in AGI and a population decline of more than 230,000.

Despite a doubling of millionaires in New York from 2010 to 2022—from 36,000 to 70,000—the state’s share of U.S. millionaires dropped sharply, falling from 12.7% to 8.7%.

“Our competitiveness depends in part on quality of life and public safety,” said Rein. “Simply put, some people found the value proposition of other places to be higher than New York City.”

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

In investing, success is often judged by numbers – returns on investment, percentage gains, and the ability to outperform benchmarks like the S&P 500. 

However, some investors frequently pursue a peculiar set of “awards” without realizing the pitfalls they embody. These unspoken goals, while tempting, rarely lead to sustainable investment success. If there were awards for some of these common but ill-advised behaviors, they would likely cause more harm than good. Here are some of the “investing awards” you’ll never receive, because chasing them isn’t worth the cost.

I Never Sold At A Loss Medal

Market volatility is an inherent aspect of investing. Striving to avoid all losses, or drawdowns, is unrealistic. Trying to sidestep volatility often leads to lower returns and missed growth opportunities. Overly conservative investments may not keep pace with inflation, steadily eroding purchasing power. Managing risk effectively instead of avoiding it is essential for long-term portfolio success.

Many investors pride themselves on never realizing a loss, believing that holding every position until it turns profitable is a badge of honor. However, this mindset often leads to holding onto poor performers indefinitely, tying up capital that could be better deployed elsewhere. This behavior is a classic example of behavioral mistakes investors make, specifically the “disposition effect,” where investors hold losing assets too long while selling winners too early. Focusing solely on avoiding losses often damages overall portfolio returns.

Like everything in life, there is a “season” and a “cycle.” When it comes to the markets, “seasons” are dictated by the “technical and economic constructs,” and the “cycles” are dictated by “valuations.” The seasons are shown in the chart below.

As such, successful investing requires disciplined pruning to maintain a healthy garden. Recognizing when an investment no longer aligns with your strategy and cutting losses early frees up capital for better opportunities. There is no award for stubbornly holding a stock that continues to drag down your portfolio.

I Took On As Much Risk As I Could Award

During bull markets, taking on excessive risk seems attractive. High-risk assets like speculative tech stocks or cryptocurrencies often deliver eye-catching gains. Some investors view risk-taking as bravery. But the reality is that high risk doesn’t guarantee higher returns; it is frequently quite the opposite. As Howard Marks previously discussed, risk and volatility aren’t the same thing. For years, many investors (and academics) have been taught that volatility, the ups and downs of stock prices, equals risk. However, volatility is just one part of the picture, but risk is the probability of losing money. Just because prices bounce around doesn’t mean you’re at risk of a loss.

However, “High risk equals high reward” is not always true. Just because an investment has a higher degree of risk does not guarantee it will deliver superior returns. Given that risk is the probability of losing money, taking on excess risk does increase the potential for poor returns over time. In other words, increasing risk increases the potential for significant losses. As such, investors must be careful about chasing returns without fully understanding the risks. The goal should be to weigh the possible outcomes and ensure the potential reward is worth the risk taken.

A good example was in 2022, when retail investors chasing meme stocks, SPACs, and IPOs suffered significantly heavier losses than the index. At that time, the ARK Innovation Fund, managed by Cathy Wood, was an example of peak speculation in the market. However, since then, those investments failed to recover. In other words, speculative risk-taking did not lead to outsized returns.

Sustainable investing requires aligning investments with financial goals and risk tolerance to avoid exposing one’s future to unnecessary volatility. Diversification, not reckless risk-taking, remains the best tool for improving risk-adjusted returns. While speculative investments lack the excitement and thrill, prudent investors build strategies focused on taking calculated, strategic risks that contribute to long-term wealth.

“You don’t get rewarded for taking risk; you get rewarded for buying cheap assets. And if the assets you bought got pushed up in price simply because they were risky, then you are not going to be rewarded for taking a risk; you are going to be punished for it.” – Jeremy Grantham

Successful investors avoid “risk” at all costs, even if it means underperforming in the short term. The reason is that while the media and Wall Street have you focused on chasing market returns in the short term, ultimately, the excess “risk” built into your portfolio will lead to inferior long-term returns. Wile E. Coyote never received an award for chasing the Roadrunner over the cliff.

I’m a Long-Term Investor (Only When I’m Losing Money) Certificate

A common rationalization is to claim to be a long-term investor only when losses mount. When an investment underperforms, investors often tell themselves they are simply “staying the course,” using time to justify inaction. Research by Barberis and Thaler (2003) on behavioral biases shows that loss aversion—the tendency to prefer avoiding losses over acquiring gains—strongly influences this behavior.

True long-term investing demands more than patience; it requires a disciplined, objective framework. This means purchasing quality assets with strong fundamentals, establishing clear investment theses, and periodically reassessing those theses. Successful investors, like Warren Buffett, have emphasized that staying invested in a poorly performing asset without reevaluating it is not long-term investing—it is emotional decision-making disguised as strategy.

A good example is Intel (INTC) versus Texas Instruments. Over the last five years, Intel has lost 62% of its value as it lost its chip-making dominance to companies like AMD, Nvidia, Broadcom, and others. For investors holding Intel, many are hoping that something will occur and they can recover that loss. However, at any point over the last 5 years, they could have sold Intel and bought virtually any other chip maker and increased their wealth. While there are many examples, this exemplifies the point of opportunity cost. Holding a losing asset for long periods eats away at the wealth-building process and consumes our most precious commodity: time.

Building a resilient portfolio is not about loyalty to individual positions. It is about effective asset allocation, risk management, and ongoing evaluation. Markets evolve, industries change, and even once-promising companies can lose their competitive edge. Recognizing when an investment no longer fits your portfolio’s long-term goals—and having the discipline to move on—is a hallmark of professional investing, not a weakness.

I Never Used Stop-Losses Or Managed Risk Ribbon

Some investors view risk management strategies like stop-losses, portfolio rebalancing, and diversification as unnecessary restraints on potential gains. Instead, they trust intuition, believing they can “ride out” volatility. Behavioral research (Shefrin, 2000) shows that overconfidence is one of individual investors’ most common mistakes, often leading to catastrophic losses when market conditions change suddenly.

Managing risk effectively isn’t about fear or pessimism. It is about protecting your capital from irreparable damage so that you can continue participating in future market growth. Stop-losses are designed not to predict downturns but to limit exposure to individual positions that deteriorate beyond acceptable thresholds. Similarly, rebalancing prevents portfolios from drifting into unintended risk concentrations over time.

An example of risk management can be very simplistic. For example, using a 40-week moving average as a “risk off” indicator can help avoid more protracted market drawdowns.

We can apply a “risk management” strategy to that moving average to reduce risk during corrective periods. For this example, when the S&P 500 breaks below the 40-week moving average, stock exposure is reduced by 50%, and it reverses to 100% when the index crosses above that moving average. The results are shown below.

While there are times when investors were triggered to reduce and then increase exposures quickly, the 2000 and 2008 financial crises underscored the consequences of unmanaged portfolios. Many investors holding full exposures to equities without risk controls suffered permanent losses (Brunnermeier, 2009). Risk management is the bridge between surviving market turbulence and thriving in long-term wealth creation. No one ever received an award for riding markets substantially lower. Such is not a testament to resilience—it is an avoidable failure.

I Beat the S&P 500 Medallion

Outperforming the S&P 500 is often portrayed as the ultimate measure of investing success. However, data from the SPIVA U.S. Scorecard shows that approximately 85% of actively managed U.S. equity funds underperform their benchmarks over ten years. While not every manager underperforms yearly, and periods of outperformance exist, the persistent challenge highlights the difficulty of consistently beating the S&P 500.

Pursuing benchmark-beating returns can lead investors into dangerous territory. Studies in behavioral finance (Statman, 2000) show that investors chasing outperformance often engage in high-turnover strategies, excessive trading, and speculative bets. These behaviors introduce additional risks and higher transaction costs that erode potential gains. The result is that investors, while trying to “beat the index, ” consistently underperform over time. As noted in the 2024 Dalbar Research report:

As noted above, even the most simplistic of risk management strategies can improve returns over time while maintaining a focus on investment goals. Instead of fixating on beating the benchmark, focus on building a portfolio that aligns with your financial goals and personal risk tolerance. Ultimately, true investing success isn’t measured against a broad index. No one will ever give you an award for beating an index from one year to the next. However, they will measure your success by what matters most: whether you achieved your objectives, like securing a comfortable retirement or funding important goals.

Conclusion: Building a Smarter Path to Investing Success

To avoid the costly mistakes outlined above, investors must adopt a disciplined, process-driven approach to managing their portfolios. Sustainable investment success comes from understanding, not reacting to, market behavior. Here are the critical steps you should take:

• First, embrace losses as part of the investment journey. Prune weak investments when they no longer fit your strategy, reallocating capital to stronger opportunities rather than waiting for recoveries that may never come.

• Second, respect risk. Avoid equating bravery with excessive risk-taking. Build portfolios aligned with your personal financial goals and loss tolerance, focusing on diversification and asset valuation rather than speculative bets.

• Third, redefine long-term investing. Remaining loyal to a poor investment out of hope wastes time and wealth. Maintain objectivity by reassessing whether each holding still meets your original investment thesis.

• Fourth, implement active risk management. Use stop-loss strategies, periodic rebalancing, and technical indicators like the 40-week moving average to protect against significant drawdowns. Managing risk is about ensuring survival, not limiting success.

• Finally, stop chasing the S&P 500. Focus instead on achieving your financial objectives with consistent, risk-adjusted returns. Outperformance is meaningless if you fail to meet real-world needs, like securing retirement income or building generational wealth.

Successful investing is not about winning arbitrary “awards.” It is about managing risk, preserving capital, and steadily compounding returns toward your goals. Ignore the noise, stay disciplined, and remember: no one hands out awards for reckless investing—only consequences.

According to fresh reporting in Haaretz, Israel is preparing tens of thousands of orders calling more reserve soldiers to active duty, amid an expected expansion of ground operations in the Gaza Strip.

But more reservists are increasingly needed as Israel’s military once again becomes more engaged in places like Syria, Lebanon, the Golan Heights, and security crackdowns in the West Bank.

The Haaretz report suggests that a surge of additional soldiers will free up more forces to focus efforts on defeating Hamas in Gaza.

One of the areas of expected new operations is the town of Muwasi on the Gaza coast. Israel is claiming that it has become a safe haven for Hamas, and that militants are hiding in what has become a sprawling tent city of the internally displaced, and so has to be cleared of all Palestinians.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has meanwhile unleashed fresh controversy related to these expanded operations. He essentially admitted that the remaining hostages are not the country’s top priority, but the ultimate defeat of Hamas is.

“We have many objectives, many goals in this war. We want to bring back all of our hostages,” Netanyahu said. “That is a very important goal. In war, there is a supreme objective. And that supreme objective is victory over our enemies. And that is what we will achieve,” he added. He had issued the words at an Independence Day event in Jerusalem on Thursday.

This was enough to outrage families of the victims, who have been begging Israeli leaders to restart negotiations with Hamas, in hopes of brokering the freedom of the remaining captives.

The Hostages and Missing Families Forum issued a response to these words of Netanyahu. “Prime minister, the return of the hostages is not ‘less’ important – it is the supreme goal that should guide the government of Israel,” a statement said. “The families of the hostages are concerned.”

As for the remaining captives, Netanyahu addressed this is the same remarks, saying “We want to bring all our hostages home. We’ve so far brought back 147 alive, and 196 total,” but that “There are another up to 24 alive, 59 total, and we want to return the living and the dead.”

Netanyahu’s description of goals in Gaza and what he prioritizes were echoed in prior remarks last week by hardline Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich in a CNN interview.

The war which has been on since the terror attacks of Oct.7, 2023 – has become deeply divisive among Israeli society:

Hundreds of Israelis walking in Tel Aviv tonight with photos of children killed in Gaza demanding to stop the attacks now. pic.twitter.com/XjDA9o6EIe

— Breaking the Silence (@BtSIsrael) April 26, 2025

“We need to tell the truth — bringing back the hostages is not the most important goal. It is, of course, a very, very, very, very important goal,” he began his comments. And there was a but…

“But anyone who wants to destroy Hamas and eliminate the possibility of another Oct. 7 must understand that in Gaza, there can’t be a situation where Hamas remains present and intact,” he emphasized.

It’s unknown how many hostages might still be alive. Family members worry that with each passing day and week, the chances of survival grow slim, also given the steady bombings and that it’s an active war zone, also with little food and medicines.

Authored by T.J.Muscaro via The Epoch Times,

The Department of Justice filed a complaint under the False Claims Act on May 1 against three health insurance companies and three large insurance brokerage organizations, alleging that hundreds of millions of dollars in kickbacks were paid by the insurance companies to the brokers in exchange for enrollments into their Medicare Advantage plans.

The insurer defendants are Aetna Inc., and its affiliates, Humana Inc., and Elevance Health Inc. (formerly known as Anthem). The broker defendants are eHealth Inc. and one of its affiliates, GoHealth Inc., and SelectQuote Inc. According to the complaint, the kickbacks were allegedly paid out from 2016 through at least 2021.

DOJ explained in a press release that the Medicare Advantage Program beneficiaries may choose to enroll in plans offered by private insurance companies, and many of those beneficiaries rely on brokers to help them choose the best plan to meet their needs.

“Rather than acting as unbiased stewards, the defendant brokers allegedly directed Medicare beneficiaries to the plans offered by insurers that paid brokers the most in kickbacks, regardless of the suitability of the MA plans for the beneficiaries,” the DOJ stated in its press release.

“According to the complaint, the broker organizations incentivized their employees and agents to sell plans based on the insurers’ kickbacks, set up teams of insurance agents who could sell only those plans, and at times refused to sell MA plans of insurers who did not pay sufficient kickbacks.”

DOJ also alleged that Humana and Aetna conspired with the brokers to discriminate against beneficiaries with disabilities deemed to be less profitable by allegedly threatening to withhold the kickbacks to the brokers.

“Health care companies that attempt to profit from kickbacks will be held accountable,” said Deputy Assistant Attorney General Michael Granston of the Justice Department’s Civil Division. 

“We are committed to rooting out illegal practices by Medicare Advantage insurers and insurance brokers that undermine the interests of federal health care programs and the patients they serve.”

The lawsuit was originally filed under whistleblower provisions under the False Claims Act, which permits the United States to intervene and take over the action.

“The alleged efforts to drive beneficiaries away specifically because their disabilities might make them less profitable to health insurance companies are even more unconscionable,” said U.S. Attorney Leah B. Foley for the District of Massachusetts.

“Profit and greed over beneficiary interest is something we will continue to investigate and prosecute aggressively. This office will continue to take decisive action to protect the rights of Medicare beneficiaries and vulnerable Americans.”

According to the complaint, violations of the False Claims Act carry mandatory civil penalties per claim, and three times the amount of the government’s damages sustained due to the defendant’s actions.

Authored by Luis Cornelio via Headline USA,

Newly unearthed emails confirm what the Biden administration had repeatedly denied: It was heavily involved in the 2022 prosecution of Trump trade counselor Peter Navarro…

The emails, released Thursday and obtained by Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, showed that the DOJ approved then-U.S. Attorney Matt Graves’s decision to indict Navarro on two contempt of Congress charges, despite the left and legacy media’s claims of independence. 

Navarro, one of the top officials in the first Trump White House, had challenged the Jan. 6 Committee’s overreach by invoking executive privilege in refusing to comply with their subpoenas. 

It appears the Biden DOJ wanted to make an example of Navarro.

In one email dated May 19, 2022—just days before Navarro was indicted—FBI Special Agent Walter Giardina wrote to fellow agents about instructions from the U.S. attorney for D.C., after the latter’s consultation “with main Justice.” 

The email read, “I just spoke with DC USAO, after consultation with main Justice, they are not intending to prosecute Meadows or Scavino. This decision is based on their White House positions and prior DOJ opinions. .. We have been told to cease work on those case. [sic]” 

Signaling the government’s intent to go after Navarro, the email continued, “They would like to charge Navarro in the next two weeks however.” 

NEW: Emails obtained by Sen Grassley demonstrate the collusion between Biden DOJ, DC US Attorney Matt Graves, and Washington FBI to pursue an indictment and schedule the arrest of Peter Navarro in 2022.

“After consultation with main Justice.” And I believe ‘Molly” is Molly… pic.twitter.com/lWy9mvQMvy

— Julie Kelly 🇺🇸 (@julie_kelly2) May 1, 2025

Giardina then ordered agents to “locate” Navarro, obtain a subpoena return from Verizon, issue a preservation letter to Apple, prepare a search warrant for his phone and iCloud account, conduct a “knock and talk interview” and serve a phone search warrant after the interview. 

The emails highlight the harrowing treatment of Navarro, who served as director of the Office of Trade and Manufacturing Policy from 2017 to 2021. 

He became the subject of a federal investigation under the Biden administration after he argued that his role in the battle for election integrity after the 2020 election was protected by executive privilege and was not subject to congressional subpoenas. 

A grand jury returned the indictment in 2022. He was convicted two years later and sentenced to four months in prison—a sentence he called a “death sentence” at age 75. 

Navarro is currently appealing his conviction in federal court. 

Trump appointed Navarro as his senior counselor for trade and manufacturing after the 2024 presidential election. 

While Apple’s Tim Cook was adamant on the call last night that he had seen no ‘pull forward’ of demand due to the tariffs, it seems every other firm in the US did as Durable Goods Orders soared in March (final print this morning at +9.2% MoM)…

Source: Bloomberg

However, Core Durable Goods (ex Transports) was unchanged MoM – suggesting considerable front-running of tariffs for planes and autos…

Source: Bloomberg

US Factory Orders rose 4.3% MoM (slightly less than the +4.5% expected) – a big jump

Source: Bloomberg

And like with Durable Goods, Core Factory orders (ex Transports) actually fell 0.2% MoM…

Source: Bloomberg

The surge in orders was largely driven by a 139% MoM spike in non-defense aircraft and parts…

Source: Bloomberg

Which pushed total orders to a new all-time record-high…

Source: Bloomberg

The question is – what happens in April – post Liberation Day?

Since ZeroHedge launched our online store in December the response has been overwhelming. Not only is your support of our mission greatly appreciated, it’s allowed us to expand.

Thanks to RFK Jr.’s “Make America Healthy Movement,” people are paying close attention to what they’re putting in their bodies like never before – and want to know exactly where their food is coming from.

To that end, ZeroHedge Store is proud to introduce ranch-direct, clean, grass-fed beef and other meats, raised on vetted, independent farms across America, packed on dry ice, and shipped quickly and directly to your door as part of our new partnership with Texas Slim and The Beef Initiative – a key ally in the MAHA movement whose mission is to connect consumers directly to their food. We’re proud to join this movement, and we hope you will too.

You’ll know exactly what you’re putting into your body, where it came from, and you’ll be supporting a network of independent farmers with high standards who have been crushed under the monopoly on US beef held by four transnational corporations.

Each regeneratively-ranched farm is thoroughly vetted by The Beef Initiative, while community-based microprocessing centers are employed to ensure that your beef – and other meats, are quickly and cleanly butchered, packaged, flash frozen, and ready to ship directly to your door for free.

Pricing: By eliminating links in the chain, we can offer high quality, clean beef and other meats at very reasonable prices, directly from the ranch families that grew it.

*** By purchasing rancher-direct, your support goes straight to family-run ranches.

*** 5% discount for all Beef Initiative subscriptions

Here’s The Beef (and more)

We’re kicking off our Rancher-Direct program with four independent ranches, along with a NYC-based beef tallow skincare company that sources directly from Redbanks Beef Farm in Virginia.

Ebersole Cattle Co. – Iowa

Located just outside of Kellerton, Iowa, the Ebersoles have been in business since 1998 and specialize in Regenerative Ranching. Their meat is 100% Grass-Fed and Grass Finished, uses no hormones, antibiotics, or mRNA vaccines.

Check out their;

• Tariff-Free Steak Bundle (10 steaks): Ribeye, NY Stip, Sirloin, Flank/Skirt, and Filet Mignon

• Prime Berkshire Pork (13-15 lbs); 2lbs thick-cut bacon, 2 thick cut Iowa pork chops, 2 pork steaks, 2lbs ground pork, 2lbs ground sausage, 1lb Chorizo, 1lb maple sausage.

• Rancher’s Favorites Box – Beef, Pork & Seasonally available Lamb & Whole Chickens. Comes with 2-4 steaks, 3-5 lbs ground meat (beef, sausage or pork – rancher’s choice), and 1lb of thick-cut bacon.

Legacy Ranch – Illinois

Offering corn-finished American Wagyu cattle on raised a small 1st generation family-owned ranch in central Illinois which uses regenerative practices. The cattle are pasture-raised with plenty of space to roam, graze, and grow at a natural pace.

Check out their;

• Wagyu Cattleman’s Bundle (15-16 lbs): 1 Ribeye steak, 1 NY Strip steak, 1 Filet Mignon, 1lb of fajita meat, 2-3 lbs of Chuck Roast, 5lb of Ground Beef, 3 burger patties, 4 Brats, and 4 Wagyu Snack Sticks (original, teriyaki, sweet heat, BBQ)

• Wagyu Snack Sticks; Shelf stable and packed with protein!

Beck Ranch – Wyoming

Family-owned in Lonetree, WY, Beck Ranch offers grass-fed, grain-free beef with no added hormones or antibiotics.

Check out their;

• Grassfed Ancestral Beef; 90% beef, 7% liver, 3% heart

• Steak Lover’s Bundle; 2 Filet Mignon steaks | 2 Ribeye or Rib Steaks Steaks | 2 Baseball or Ponderosa Steaks | 2 New York Strip Steaks | 2 Top Sirloin Steaks

Miller Bison – Nevada

Located in Eureka, Nevada, Anthony and Benita Miller have over 130 bison on their 320-acre farm which uses regenerative agriculture practices.

Check out their;

• Complete Bison Box; 2-4 steaks (Rancher’s choice of: Ribeye, Tenderloin, NY Strip, Top Sirloin, Flat Iron, Skirt and more), 2-3 lbs slow-cook cuts (roasts, short ribs, stew meat), and 4-6 lbs of Ground Bison. 

• Carnivore Bison Stick Pack; four flavors to choose from!

Born To Be Free – New York, Tallow sourced from Virginia

Nadja and John Scavone have produced a collection of non-toxic, chemical-free skincare products using the finest, regeneratively-sourced ingredients using grass-fed tallow.

Check out their;

• Cattleman’s Skincare Collection; Sandalwood Body Butter (4oz), Sandalwood Tallow Soap Bar (4.5oz), Sweet Almond Body Butter (2.5oz), Coconut Vanilla Lip Balm (.3oz)

• Tallow Mayhem Collection

From Texas Slim, founder of The Beef Initiative: “This partnership with ZeroHedge isn’t just a media alignment—it’s the signal fire. American ranchers are reconnecting with the people they feed, not through policy or permission, but through proof of work. We’re laying the foundation for a sovereign food system—local, durable, and built on trust. Every box you buy keeps a rancher on the land and a way of life from disappearing.“

SHOP HERE

The woke liberal elites, perched high in their Harvard University ivory towers in Cambridge, Massachusetts, have been plotted at extreme levels on the “F*ck Around and Find Out” (FAFO) chart, which illustrates their relationship between taking risks (“f*ck around”) and facing consequences (“find out”) in response to President Trump’s simple request to dismantle the toxic framework of diversity, equity, and inclusion on campus. 

The standoff between President Trump and woke elites deepened on Friday morning after the president wrote on Truth Social: “We are going to be taking away Harvard’s Tax Exempt Status. It’s what they deserve!” 

On Wednesday, President Trump suggested to U.S. Education Secretary Linda McMahon that the federal government may stop giving the far-left university grants: “And it looks like we are not going to be giving them any more grants, right Linda?”

The president has launched a formal review into the $9 billion in federal funding for the university. He demanded the university end DEI and crack down on anti-Semitic protests fueled by pro-Palestinian groups. 

F*ck Around:

• “Will Not Surrender” – Harvard Snubs Trump Admin’s Demands Tied To $9 Billion Funding

Find Out:

• Trump Threatens Harvard’s Tax-Exempt Status Amid Federal Funding Freeze

Last week, the president asked the Internal Revenue Service to revoke Harvard University’s tax-exempt status. The Ivy League school’s failure to wind down woke and toxic liberal agendas that undermine the nation has left it at the end phase of FAFO. 

On Thursday night, Trump told students in his commencement address at the University of Alabama: “The next chapter of the American story will not be written by the Harvard Crimson. It will be written by you, the Crimson Tide.”

China has quietly started to exempt some US goods from tariffs that likely cover around $40 billion worth of imports (or around 24% of Chinese imports from the US in 2024), in what looks like an effort to soften the blow of the trade war on its own economy. 

“China is likely trying to mitigate damage to its economy by avoiding a collapse in key imports,” DiPippo said. 

“The exemptions shouldn’t be interpreted as a signal to the US, as China has been quiet about its exemptions, working through business channels and avoiding public statements.”

While this move mirrors the shift by the Trump administration – exempting smartphones and other electronics from its own “reciprocal” tariffs, including the 145% levies on China (those US exemptions apply to about $102 billion, or roughly 22% of US imports from China last year) – we suspect there is more behind this decision.

As we highlighted just a week ago, China’s already fragile economy faced a serious crisis from the tariff-driven cuts to supply of US ethane and the potential for that to force mass plastics factory closures.

“The situation is dire for China’s ethane crackers as they have no alternative to US supply,” said Manish Sejwal, an analyst at Rystad Energy AS, using an industry term for such facilities.

 “Unless they are granted tariff exemptions, they may have to stop production or close shop.”

Well guess what just happened… buried deep among the 131 items is, you guessed it – industrial chemicals (which likely includes US Ethane supplies).

Bloomberg reports that it’s unclear where the list came from and it hasn’t been officially confirmed, but at least half a dozen companies in China have been able to bring in goods from the list without paying tariffs, according to people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be identified discussing confidential information.

No matter the reason – forced by factory closure crisis or simply goodwill – there are tentative signs the US-China trade standoff could be shifting. 

The Chinese Commerce Ministry said on Friday it’s assessing the possibility of trade talks with the US, giving a lift to equity markets.

“The US has recently sent messages to China through relevant parties, hoping to start talks with China,” the ministry said in a statement released during a mainland holiday. 

“China is currently evaluating this.”

The timing of the tit-for-tat escalation and de-escalation is very similar to last time (though this time the pain was far greater to prompt the walkbacks on both sides)…

The list of exemptions is said to be dynamic and will be continuously adjusted depending on China’s needs, according to people familiar with the matter.

The first wave of the trade downturn is already affecting the U.S. West Coast, with the Port of Los Angeles experiencing a sharp decline in containerized imports from Asia, following months of elevated frontloading by U.S. importers. 

For those tracking trade developments in recent weeks, this freight downturn was entirely predictable:

• Amazon Cancels Orders, Walmart Pulls Forecast As Tariffs Take Hold

• Are China Road Traffic Indicators Set To Collapse As Tariff War Cancels Factory Orders

• Chinese Sellers On Amazon Panic After Trump’s Tariff Bazooka

• Liberation Day Fallout: China’s Port Volumes Sink After Trump’s Tariff Blitz

• Chinese Plastics Factories Face Mass Closure As U.S. Ethane Supply Evaporates

• “Our Export Orders Disappeared”: Chinese Factories Shutting Down, Laying Off Workers, FT Finds

• All Quiet On The Western Ports… Is This The Calm Before The Trade War Storm?

• First Tariff Shock Set To Hit Port Of Los Angeles, With Ripple Effects Across The Broader Economy

• Trade War Shock Looms For Port Of Los Angeles As Goldman Identifies Most-Impacted Products

• Imported High-Volume Staple Goods From China Are About To Dry Up

Last month, Chinese manufacturers shut down production lines, and exporters suspended shipments to the U.S. in response to President Trump’s 145% tariff trade wall. The one-month delay in the U.S. economic impact reflects the time it takes cargo ships to sail China-US West Coast shipping lanes.

The latest scheduled import volume data from Port Optimizer, a tracking system for vessel operators, shows that the economic impact of the tariffs on Chinese goods has already begun to take effect. 

Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo, laid out a presentation for clients of what to expect in the weeks ahead:

The consequence will be empty shelves in U.S. stores in a few weeks and Covid-like shortages for consumers and for firms using Chinese products as intermediate goods.

In addition, we will soon begin to see higher inflation because there are a significant number of product categories where China is the main provider of certain goods into the U.S. market.

In May, we will begin to see significant layoffs in trucking, logistics, and retail—particularly in small businesses such as your independent toy store, your independent hardware store, and your independent men’s clothing store. With 9 million people working in trucking-related jobs and 16 million people working in the retail sector, the downside risks to the economy are significant.

In a separate note, Goldman analyst Trina Chen outlined which Chinese products are most likely to be impacted if shortages materialize over the next couple of months.

Slok’s chart above illustrates that the front-loading surge in imports ended abruptly just ahead of President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs. The sharp drop in containerized volumes from China came off previously elevated levels. More or less, this was a natural lull that developed and quickly reversed due to tariffs. 

The consequences of the tariffs could lead to Covid-like shortages of high-volume staples from China once warehouse inventories run dry. However, no retailer will allow shelves to go empty—they’ll be forced to reorder at higher costs and pass those increases on to consumers. That’s why inflation could see a resurgence. Still, this may take months—possibly a full quarter—to fully unfold, by which point a broader U.S. economic downturn may already be in motion.