Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

After thirty days under Chancellor Friedrich Merz, the contours of his government are becoming clearer. From an economic policy perspective, the diagnosis is sound—but the treatment will worsen the disease.

Those who remember the Bundestag battles between then-Chancellor Gerhard Schröder (SPD) and his fiery rival, opposition leader Friedrich Merz, recall a man who once wrapped his rhetoric in the cloth of classical liberalism. Back then, Merz championed free enterprise where the state overreached, demanded tax cuts where the middle class was burdened, and called for deregulation to unleash growth. Had the “Milei chainsaw” existed in his time, Merz would have snatched it up with pride.

But those sweet days of opposition are long gone. Today, the spirit of the old CDU-SPD “grand coalition” has returned—with Merz sounding more like a budget manager than a reformer.

Big Promises, Hollow Delivery

Merz began his term promising to reignite the “power of the social market economy.” But across Berlin, there’s hardly anyone who knows how to make good on that vision. He spoke of liberating the economy, cutting red tape, recommitting to Germany’s constitutional debt brake, and ending the green-socialist central planning that’s throttled growth.

Yet skepticism is warranted. His campaign promises already lie in shambles, not least on migration. Germany’s border crisis continues under the fig leaf of federal police presence—a familiar pantomime. The Merz-led CDU bears sole responsibility for blocking real reform by childishly excluding the AfD from any policy alignment. This exclusion has sabotaged a possible political pivot. The “traveling chancellor,” who’s spent more time abroad than at home, will eventually crash headlong into immigration reality.

Style Over Substance

Merz’s zigzag course on the debt brake illustrates his preference for optics over substance. Instead of defending the constitutional limit on borrowing—a cornerstone of conservative fiscal thinking—he caved to his new left-leaning allies. Exploiting extra-budgetary “special funds” to circumvent the constitution is fiscal malpractice. The debt brake, once a firewall against runaway spending, is now exposed as a paper tiger.

Merz seems more inclined to avoid conflict than to defend the future. He trades tomorrow’s prosperity for today’s consensus. But real political discourse requires conflict—especially with those partners who uphold the so-called firewall against the AfD. In the moralizing echo chamber of the mainstream, real fiscal debate has no place.

Rising welfare costs due to recession, labor market erosion, and uncontrolled immigration will be patched over with increased payroll taxes and federal transfers. And as absurd as it may sound, the government’s solution is a trillion-euro “investment package” intended to give the illusion of forward momentum. Real reforms—on pensions or health care—remain off the table. Public debt is set to surge from 63% to 95% of GDP, pushing Germany into the middle tier of Europe’s debtor nations. But as long as social peace (or coalition harmony) is preserved, the price is deemed acceptable.

Fantasy Tools for a Real Crisis

Berlin bets on baby steps: a slight cut to corporate taxes, a reinstated degressive depreciation rule. These micro-measures are bundled under the marketing slogan “investment booster.” Familiar buzzwords return—cutting bureaucracy, speeding up permits, digitalizing the administration. Merz talks of a “business-friendly climate” but offers little more than old slogans in new wrapping.

Even his flagship idea—“growth ateliers”—to simplify bureaucracy for small firms is more linguistic inflation than serious reform. No ministries have been eliminated. The civil service continues to grow unchecked, the last booming “sector” of the economy. Businesses now bear €146 billion annually in administrative costs. In today’s Germany, entrepreneurs serve as fiscal prey.

Had Merz been serious about reviving Germany’s economy, he would have acted swiftly to reduce both living and production costs. Abolishing the CO₂ tax, scrapping the solidarity surcharge, or reopening the door to nuclear power would have been powerful signals. But nothing of the sort will happen. The list of rational reforms grows the deeper one ventures into Berlin’s political jungle. Merz needed a chainsaw. He won’t even pick up a paring knife.

Empty Words, Heavy Consequences

Given the crisis in Germany’s key industries—especially automotive—one might have expected a bolder course. Ending Brussels’ and Berlin’s war on combustion engines would be a start. The construction sector remains flatlined. Yet no serious attempt is made to roll back overregulation or the self-destructive climate laws. ESG mandates won’t be repealed. The “Heating Act,” the green centerpiece of the last government, will remain in place—merely “reformed.” Translation: pretend to change, preserve the core.

So far, the new government’s trajectory mirrors that of its predecessor. Merz frequently invokes Ludwig Erhard, the father of the social market economy, but betrays no real commitment to his principles. As the U.S. turns up the pressure in the trade war, Merz will face a decision: side with Brussels in building Fortress Europe, or begin dismantling the regulatory stranglehold on the Eurozone economy.

Either way, he’ll do it with a straight face. For like his predecessors, Merz too wants to go down in history as a “climate chancellor.”

* * *

Thomas Kolbe, born in 1978 in Neuss/ Germany, is a graduate economist. For over 25 years, he has worked as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.

Amazon Web Services (AWS) is doubling down on its AI ambitions with a $20-billion expansion plan to build two new data center campuses in Pennsylvania, including one directly adjacent to a major nuclear power plant, Reuters reports. 

AWS is targeting the deployment of multiple data centers over the next 10 years, and the buildout will be fueled by carbon-free nuclear power, making it one of the largest private-sector nuclear-backed energy deals in the U.S. to date, according to OilPrice.

The first site, slated for Salem Township near the 2.5 GW Susquehanna Steam Electric Station, leverages a standing engineering framework based on the campus’s 960 MW design capacity. 

Amazon is partnering with Talen Energy, a former power utility-turned-nuclear innovator, which will supply the cloud giant with electricity from its Susquehanna nuclear power station, located in Luzerne County. Talen previously spun off its nuclear arm into Cumulus Data, which is developing a 475 MW data center campus adjacent to the power plant. That infrastructure will now be part of Amazon’s AI backbone.

That project is currently under FERC review after regulators capped its supply to 300 MW, citing grid reliability concerns. Still, AWS is pushing ahead, eyeing renewable-like stability without the typical grid bottlenecks.

Analysts say the move could accelerate the return of baseload nuclear as a strategic energy asset in the U.S. data economy. Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro called the deal the largest in the state’s history, with construction expected to generate over 1,250 union jobs in the near term.

“Pennsylvania is competing again—and I’m proud to announce that with Amazon’s commitment of at least $20 billion to build new state-of-the-art data center campuses across our Commonwealth, we have secured the largest private sector investment in the history of Pennsylvania,” said Shapiro. 

In the broader energy context, Amazon’s bet aligns with a rising wave of private-sector clean energy procurement that hopes to successfully sell a different story about AI’s energy use: That hyperscalers can reframe this as ESG-possible. 

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A plane with as many as 20 people on board crashed in Tennessee on Sunday, leading to several people being airlifted to hospitals, the state highway patrol confirmed.

“Initial reports suggest 16–20 people were on board. Some have been airlifted to nearby hospitals,” the Tennessee Highway Patrol wrote in a post on social media platform X, adding that the plane went down in Coffee County, around 60 miles south of Nashville.

In a post on Facebook, the highway patrol said that several people have been flown to hospitals. Others are being evaluated on-site, it added.

“This remains an active and developing situation,” said the law enforcement agency. “Tullahoma first responders and Coffee County EMS are leading response efforts. Please avoid the area to allow emergency crews room to operate safely. They will share more updates as information becomes publicly available.”

Based on the two social media posts, no fatalities have been reported as of Sunday afternoon.

Video footage released by the highway patrol on social media show the aircraft appears to be a small plane, which was broken in half.

The Epoch Times has contacted the City of Tullahoma, where the crash took place, for comment.

A spokesperson told CNN there were no fatalities, saying that the incident occurred at the Tullahoma Regional Airport. Federal Aviation Authorities officials are en route to assist in the investigation, the spokesperson added.

More details about the victims, the injuries, and information about what led up to the crash or how it occurred were not immediately available.

Iranian Intelligence Minister Esmail Khatib is claiming Tehran has acquired a “treasure trove” of sensitive Israeli documents, including information on Israel’s secret (but long not-so-secret) nuclear weapons program, as well as apparent evidence of US and European knowledge and support.

“The transfer of this treasure trove was time-consuming and required security measures. Naturally, the transfer methods will remain confidential, but the documents should be unveiled soon,” Khatib said. He vowed to make them public, at which point this could force either an Israeli or US official statement.

Iranian state TV unveiled the alleged clandestine operation on Saturday, though no evidence was provided. Additionally, Israel has yet to acknowledge anything regarding theft of its files, which may have occurred through a cyber-breach.

The Associated Press reporting on Khatib’s words strongly points to cyber espionage, given the US-sanctioned intelligence chief’s background:

Khatib said members of the Intelligence Ministry “achieved an important treasury of strategic, operational and scientific intelligence of the Zionist regime and it was transferred into the country with God’s help.”

He claimed thousands of pages of documents had been obtained and insisted they would be made public soon. Among them were documents related to the U.S., Europe and other countries, he claimed, obtained through “infiltration” and “access to the sources.”

He did not elaborate on the methods used. However, Khatib, a Shiite cleric, was sanctioned by the U.S. Treasury in 2022 over directing “cyber espionage and ransomware attacks in support of Iran’s political goals.”

Israel has for decades had an undeclared nuclear weapons program, which the United States has never formally acknowledged, also with the State Department consistently refusing to answer questions on it.

The nuclear arsenal is commonly estimated to be somewhere in the range of 90 to 300 warheads, and it being undeclared means it remains completely outside international oversight.

Regional Muslim-majority nations have long called out Western hypocrisy on the issue. Iran’s nuclear energy program has been tightly monitored under the prior Obama JCPOA nuclear deal, and current talks with Washington aim to reestablish a similar monitoring regimen. Certainly Tehran will attempt to leverage these alleged documents as it deals with Washington on the issue.

#BREAKING EU helps Israel with nuclear weapons

Iran MFA says the files Iran obtained from Israel will expose active involvement of some European states in Israel’s military nuclear program.

He says the same states that constantly preach non-proliferation & question Iran’s… pic.twitter.com/d9VUciRXfD

— War Intel (@warintel4u) June 9, 2025

The US has also fought entire wars on the basis that an Arab regime might have WMD (weapons of mass destruction) – with Iraq and Libya being notable cases. Gaddafi was convinced by the Bush administration to ‘come in from the cold’ and give up any nuclear or chemical weapons aspirations, only to be overthrown by NATO-backed and al-Qaeda linked rebels a decade later, with the help of US, French, and UK warplanes.

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

At least 60 people were arrested on Sunday after protests against federal immigration raids in San Francisco escalated into violence, according to the San Francisco Police Department (SFPD).

Police said officers began monitoring the assembly near Sansome and Washington streets around 7 p.m. on June 8 as protesters engaged in “First Amendment activity.”

The demonstration escalated when some protesters allegedly committed assault and vandalized property, prompting police to declare the assembly unlawful. Many people left the area after the declaration, police said in a statement.

Several protesters had refused to leave and continued to engage in illegal activity as they moved toward Market and Kearny streets, where they vandalized buildings and an SFPD patrol vehicle, it stated.

The SFPD said its officers detained protesters who refused to comply with the dispersal order. Three police officers were injured during the incident, with one transported to a hospital for medical treatment. Police also recovered a firearm at the scene.

“Individuals are always free to exercise their First Amendment rights in San Francisco but violence—especially against SFPD officers — will never be tolerated,” the SFPD stated, adding that an investigation into the incident is still ongoing.

Footage shared on social media shows police in riot gear forming a barricade to block protesters gathered outside an Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) building in San Francisco.

San Francisco Mayor Daniel Lurie said the protest has since “wound down,” and that the city is working to clean up the damage and restore public transportation services to full operation.

Lurie stated in a social media post that his office will “never tolerate violent and destructive behavior, and as crowds dwindled, a group that remained caused injuries to police officers, vandalized Muni vehicles, and broke windows of local businesses.”

Protests against ICE raids began in Los Angeles on June 6, following the arrest of dozens of illegal immigrants in the city as part of the Trump administration’s mass deportation operation. Sporadic protests later broke out in New York City and San Francisco.

Authorities deployed National Guard personnel to Los Angeles as protests continued on the third day on June 8. The Los Angeles Police Department (LAPD) said that several business owners have reported incidents of looting during the protests.

President Donald Trump has directed Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, and Attorney General Pam Bondi to take all actions necessary “to liberate Los Angeles from the Migrant Invasion” and bring an end to the riots.

“A once great American City, Los Angeles, has been invaded and occupied by Illegal Aliens and Criminals,” he stated on Truth Social. “Order will be restored, the Illegals will be expelled, and Los Angeles will be set free.”

California Gov. Gavin Newsom stated on June 8 that he had formally requested the Trump administration to withdraw the deployed troops from Los Angeles and return them to his command.

“We didn’t have a problem until Trump got involved. This is a serious breach of state sovereignty—inflaming tensions while pulling resources from where they’re actually needed,” Newsom stated.

At least 27 people were arrested on June 7 following the protests. During the third day of protests in Los Angeles, members of the National Guard faced off with demonstrators, leading to tear gas being fired at a growing crowd near a federal complex in the city, according to video footage.

The confrontation broke out in front of the Metropolitan Detention Center in downtown Los Angeles, as a group shouted insults at members of the guard lined shoulder to shoulder behind plastic riot shields. Near downtown, at least four Waymo self-driving cars were set on fire. Flashbang crowd control grenades were deployed throughout the evening.

Jack Phillips and Joseph Lord contributed to this report.

Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has fired every member of the CDC’s vaccine advisory panel in a sweeping move he says is meant to restore public trust, but critics are calling it reckless and radical.

In an op-ed published in the Wall Street Journal, Kennedy said the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) had been plagued by conflicts of interest, rubber-stamp behavior, and opaque decision-making for decades – and that only a “clean sweep” could fix it.

The committee has been plagued with persistent conflicts of interest and has become little more than a rubber stamp for any vaccine. It has never recommended against a vaccine—even those later withdrawn for safety reasons. It has failed to scrutinize vaccine products given to babies and pregnant women. To make matters worse, the groups that inform ACIP meet behind closed doors, violating the legal and ethical principle of transparency crucial to maintaining public trust. -RFK Jr.

The 17-member ACIP panel – made up of independent scientists, doctors, and public health professionals – was scheduled to meet later this month to review recommendations, including those involving COVID-19 vaccinations for children. That meeting will still go ahead, but without the current panelists, some of whom Kennedy said were ‘last-minute Biden appointees’ whose terms would have otherwise extended until 2028.

“Without removing the current members, the current Trump administration would not have been able to appoint a majority of new members until 2028,” Kennedy wrote. 

Kennedy’s defenders say this is exactly the kind of bold move needed to break the credibility crisis surrounding vaccine science and government health agencies. The new appointees, he pledged, “won’t directly work for the vaccine industry” and will “refuse to serve as a rubber stamp,” instead fostering “a culture of critical inquiry”.

But critics say the move reeks of ideology and raises fears that Kennedy will stack the committee with vaccine skeptics or unqualified appointees, further eroding trust.

“Firing experts that have spent their entire lives protecting kids from deadly disease is not reform — it’s reckless, radical, and rooted in conspiracy, not science,” said Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) in a scathing statement.

Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.), who said Kennedy had pledged to leave ACIP intact during confirmation talks, posted on X that he was now concerned about who would replace the experts.

“Of course, now the fear is that the ACIP will be filled up with people who know nothing about vaccines except suspicion,” Cassidy wrote.

Of course, now the fear is that the ACIP will be filled up with people who know nothing about vaccines except suspicion. I’ve just spoken with Secretary Kennedy, and I’ll continue to talk with him to ensure this is not the case.https://t.co/iXjTDieAwY

— U.S. Senator Bill Cassidy, M.D. (@SenBillCassidy) June 9, 2025

Kennedy, however, insists this isn’t about ideology — it’s about transparency, independence, and restoring the public’s faith in an institution that once commanded global respect.

“In the 1960s, the world sought guidance from America’s health regulators,” Kennedy wrote. “Public trust has since collapsed, but we will earn it back.”

Whether the public sees this as reform or a purge, one thing is clear: the Trump administration is moving fast to reshape America’s health bureaucracy — and no sacred cow is safe.

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

This is because it concerns the country’s second-largest city, could disrupt one of its top economic hubs, and might evolve into an irredentist campaign by Mexican nationalists and their US leftist allies.

Large-scale unrest has gripped parts of Los Angeles since late last week in response to the Immigration and Customs Enforcement’s (ICE) recent operations against illegal immigrants there. Trump authorized the National Guard to restore order but clashes still continue. The unrest poses a pressing national security threat since it concerns the country’s second-largest city, could disrupt one of its top economic hubs, and might evolve into an irredentist campaign by Mexican nationalists and their US leftist allies.

The immediate roots are the Biden Administration’s de facto open borders policy that allowed millions of illegal immigrants, mostly from Ibero-America, to flood into the country. Then there’s the influence of summer 2020’s unrest, which convinced activists and agitators alike, including the professionals among them, that they can riot with impunity. And finally, the Mexican Cession from the mid-19th century is also relevant, which some Mexican nationalists and their US leftist allies refuse to recognize as legitimate.

These factors combined to catalyze the ongoing unrest, which has seen the involvement of various NGOs, radical leftist movements, and like-minded philanthropist Neville Singham according to “Data Republican’s” viral two–part investigation on X. This has led to parallels being drawn to summer 2020’s Hybrid War of Terror on America that was analyzed here at the time. To be sure, some of the participants in both were genuinely autonomous, but others were and are operating as part of something larger.

Observers should also remember that Democrat-aligned elements of the US “deep state” funneled American arms to Mexican cartels as part of Operation Fast & Furious, which they maintain was a botched sting operation though critics remain convinced that it was something more nefarious. It therefore can’t be ruled out that some of these forces at the very least wouldn’t mind if those cartels sow chaos on the US’ side of the border on the pretext of “protesting” ICE to create problems for Trump.

Beyond the speculative involvement of (possibly “deep state”-backed) Mexican cartels, there are also autonomously acting Mexican nationalists among the illegal immigrant, naturalized, and second- and later-generation communities in LA that are participating in the unrest together with US leftists. They’re allies in that neither recognizes the legitimacy of the mid-19th century’s Mexican Cession, ergo their support for open borders in order to “reclaim” this lost territory as a form of “historical justice”.

Some multipolar-minded apologists have likened this to the uprisings in Crimea and Donbass after “EuroMaidan”, but the key difference is that they were led by Ukrainian citizens of Russian origin who rebelled in defense of their human rights after radicals seized power and threatened to subjugate them. By contrast, the Trump Administration hasn’t signaled that it’ll do anything similar against legal American residents of Ibero-American origin, it’s simply enforcing the law by expelling illegal immigrant invaders.

Legal US residents of Ibero-American origin can freely speak, publish in, and teach their languages. They also have equal rights (apart from being unable to vote till obtaining citizenship) and benefited from “affirmative action”. For all intents and purposes, Mexican nationalists who legally reside in the US can live as if they’re in Mexico (even better since they otherwise wouldn’t have left) so long as they remain law-abiding, thus discrediting the “historical justice” argument that some have used to justify the unrest.

Nevertheless, some of the rioters are clearly driven by nationalist motives as proven by them waving the Mexican flag as they violently attack members of the security services, hence the importance in quelling the unrest as soon as possible so that it doesn’t spiral out of control. There are also political and economic considerations too, but these pale in comparison to the need to expel illegal immigrants from the border region, especially those Mexicans who might resort to terrorism to further irredentist plans.

About that, it’s possible that violent irredentism isn’t all that popular among Mexican illegal immigrants but that (possibly “deep state”-backed) cartels from there and elsewhere like Venezuela are trying to push this notion, hoping that it’ll provoke copycat unrest in other major cities. Most of them in the US have significant Ibero-American populations, including illegal immigrants, so the real orchestrators (if there are any as is speculated) might hope to “inspire” “solidarity protests” across the US.

All that can be known for sure is that the images of Mexican flag-waving rioters in LA naturally give rise to worries of an emerging irredentist campaign that poses a pressing national security threat to the US and therefore challenges Trump to employ all legal means at his disposal to put it down or else. Despite everything that he’s done so far following the letter of the law, his opponents might soon dishonestly accuse him of behaving as a “fascist dictator”, all in an attempt to “inspire” more unrest.

Therein lies the objective of the real orchestrators and/or political opportunists depending on one’s belief about who’s behind the riots: it’s all about eroding Trump’s authority, misportraying him as a “fascist dictator”, and altogether galvanizing the Democrats far ahead of fall 2026’s midterms. These goals are being advanced by autonomously acting participants and professionals alike, with some of the first not realizing the role that they’re playing the larger scheme, thus making it a Color Revolution.

This description doesn’t automatically imply regime change intentions nor the involvement of a foreign government, it only refers to the weaponization of protests, which is nowadays common across the world after the relevant socio-political technology wildly proliferated over the past quarter-century. The reported involvement of so many diverse actors in this one shows how serious the attempt is to destabilize the Trump Administration, which could have far-reaching global implications if it succeeds.

US petrochemical producers may have found themselves on the front line of global trade wars, BNEF reports, with China’s dependence on the US for feedstocks (see “Chinese Plastics Factories Face Mass Closure As US Ethane Supply Evaporates“) blunting the impact of its dominations of exports of rare earth metals.

China imported more than 565,000 barrels per day of petrochemical feedstocks from the US in 2024 according to the Energy Information Administration, with a value of over $4.7 billion. That dwarfed the $170 million of rare earths the US imported last year, about 70% of which came from China, according to the US Geological Survey.

The figures show the dependence the US and China have developed on each other by ever tightening trade links over the past few decades. While China has a tight grip on refining many metals crucial for industry, it also takes in niche chemicals from the US that are difficult to buy elsewhere.

China leans on naphtha to produce most base chemicals, which are processed further to end up in everyday items like electronics and clothing. However, some plants can switch to cheaper propane when the economics make sense, which they do regularly. Propane dehydrogenation plants however can’t process alternatives like naphtha. The US accounted for over half of all China’s propane imports in 2024. 

US producers have looked to China to buy their ballooning volumes of feedstock, the market value of which has almost quadrupled since 2020. China accounts for almost half of all new mixed-feed ethylene and propylene production capacity set to come online globally over the next four years, based on data compiled by BloombergNEF.

A forced divorce

The honeymoon period may be about to end. Following the implementation of tariffs by President Donald Trump’s administration in April, China retaliated with its own on US imports — including a 125% tariff on feedstocks like propane and ethane. The duty effectively killed the economics of importing US feedstocks. 

Alternative sources of propane may be hard or expensive to come by, with producers in the Middle East sending most of their supplies to India, South Korea and Japan. While some rerouting could take place, Middle Eastern players could use the lack of alternatives for China’s propane dehydrogenation plants to charge a premium. China’s propane dehydrogenation operators, like Hengli Petrochemical, have already suffered from weak margins over the past years. Many may opt to shut their operations temporarily.

A messy settlement

China moved quickly to remove tariffs on US ethane as trade talks commenced. However, while China seems willing to buy US ethane, the US administration may no longer allow it. Enterprise Products Partners — the largest US-based exporter of petrochemical feedstocks — received a notice on Wednesday from the Bureau of Industry and Security at the US Department of Commerce, denying licenses to export ethane to China on the basis that such flows “pose an unacceptable risk of use in or diversion to a ‘military end use’ in China.” Energy Transfer received a similar communication.

China’s ethane cracking capacity is dwarfed by its capacity to process naphtha and propane, but almost all of its ethane imports come from the US. The restrictions will have a significant impact on the Lianyungang and Tianjin plants, owned by Satellite Chemical, Sinopec and INEOS. SP Chemicals, a Singapore-based producer, sources most of its feedstock from Enterprise Products Partners.

As the trade war continues, it appears commodities may lead the confrontation, with players on both sides set to feel the pain.

Tesla’s robotaxi reveal and Waymo’s rapid expansion across U.S. cities have dominated the conversation around autonomous vehicles (AVs) in North America. A new note from Goldman Sachs provides a framework showing that AVs have officially entered the commercialization phase in ridesharing and trucking, and their proliferation into the real economy is poised for hyperscale well into the 2030s.

“There are already over 1,500 Waymo robotaxis on roads in the U.S. Tesla hopes to begin commercial robotaxi operations in June in Austin,” a team of Goldman analysts led by Mark Delaney wrote in a note to clients Monday morning. 

The U.S. rideshare market, currently valued at $58 billion, is expected to swell to over $336 billion by 2030. Delaney estimates robotaxis will capture about $7 billion of that market, representing 8% of total rideshare bookings. While this figure may seem modest, it represents a significant leap from the $300 million projected for 2025, with a nearly 90% compound annual growth rate.

Waymo, Google’s AV subsidiary, leads the autonomous vehicle space with 1,500 vehicles operating across various metro areas nationwide, logging over 250,000 paid rides per week. Those cities include Phoenix, San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Austin, with plans to expand into seven U.S. cities by the end of 2026. Meanwhile, Tesla is preparing to launch its robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, later this week. 

Delaney forecasted, “With this rollout from Waymo, coupled with planned launches from others including Tesla and Zoox, we expect over 1.8K commercial autonomous vehicles in the US by the end of 2025 and 35K in 2030.” 

Some early signs of AV scaling include Waymo’s rollout…

Delaney noted that “falling costs are another key enabler” in the AV space for companies to hyperscale their robotaxi fleets well into the 2030s. 

Driving costs per mile for AVs have also been sliding…

Shifting gears, the analysts turn to AV-enabled Class 8 trucks—heavy-duty vehicles with a gross vehicle weight rating (GVWR) exceeding 33,000 pounds. These include 18-wheelers, dump trucks, and other large freight haulers that move goods across America’s highways.

They noted that while AV trucks are a small part of the Class 8 fleet today, their potential to lower costs and extend operational hours (free from driver time limits) is compelling. Goldman forecasts 25,000 AV trucks on the road by 2030, capturing $18 billion of the freight market—just under 3% of total trucked miles. 

Here’s the latest on the robotaxi industry:

• Elon Musk Confirms June Launch For Robotaxis In Austin

• 500,000 Robotaxis To Hit China’s Streets By 2030

• Where Are Waymo’s Robotaxis Today?

• First Driverless Heavy Duty Trucking Service Launched On US Public Roads

Pro Subs can read the full note here …. 

Authored by Mary Prenon via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

With median home prices exceeding $1 million in many U.S. housing markets, some real estate professionals are drawing attention to a 28-year-old capital gains tax law, citing it as one factor contributing to the nationwide housing shortage.

A recent report from Realtor.com shows that California is home to 8 of the 10 most expensive housing markets in the United States. San Jose tops the list with a median sales price of $2.02 million, followed by Anaheim and San Francisco at $1.45 million and $1.32 million, respectively.

Ken DeLeon, founder of DeLeon Realty in Palo Alto, told The Epoch Times that some communities in the San Francisco Bay Area have experienced skyrocketing home prices, which have jumped 667 percent on average since 1997—the year the Taxpayer Relief Act was signed into law, allowing married homeowners to exclude up to $500,000 in capital gains from the sale of their primary residence, and $250,000 for single homeowners.

“This outdated capital gains law has resulted in an artificially-created housing shortage,” DeLeon said. “A lot of older people who have lived in their homes for 30 years or more want to sell, but the value of those homes has tripled or quadrupled now. Some of these sellers could now be facing capital gains taxes of over $1 million.”

According to a HUD report, the median cost of a single-family home in 1997 was $143,000, compared with $414,000 in April 2025, as reported by the National Association of Realtors.

With the combined federal and state capital gains tax rate now at 37.1 percent in California, potential sellers seeking to avoid elevated tax exposure are choosing instead to remain in their current properties.

As a result, DeLeon said inventory levels have reached historic lows and sellers are stuck in a tax trap.

“We’ve seen more than 57 percent drop in inventory in the Silicon Valley, which means a lot of single people and young families are also stuck in expensive rentals,” he said.

With properties typically listed at $2 million to $5 million in the region, primarily it’s employees from high-paying tech companies such as Apple, Google, Adobe, and Oracle who can afford them, DeLeon said.

“People do want to buy, but listings are scarce. And the housing shortage is driving prices even higher,” he said.

DeLeon contends that the economic ripple effects of the almost three-decade-old tax formula is causing not only fewer home sales, but less revenue from transfer taxes, reset property taxes, and local economic activity.

California is not alone in facing this capital gains crisis. Bianca D’Alessio, a broker with Nest Seekers International in New York City, is seeing a similar situation with her clients, particularly owners of brownstones in the borough of Brooklyn.

“We have older people who may have bought their home 30 years ago for less than $100,000 and now they’re worth $4 million,” she told The Epoch Times. “They may want to downsize and move, but they can’t afford to pay all those capital gains taxes.”

D’Alessio explained that while these homeowners will still walk away with a significant profit, they’ll probably want to pay cash for their next home, which could often be a condo with hefty monthly maintenance charges.

“While they’ll still enjoy the profits of their sale, that huge chunk of money going towards capital gains is cutting into their nest eggs for their futures,” she said.

Unlike California’s Silicon Valley, there has been an uptick in inventory in Manhattan, with a wealth of recent new construction. “There are a lot of opportunities for buyers now, and sellers are definitely negotiating more,” D’Alessio said.

However, existing home sellers and those who want to purchase turn-of-the-century classics are still stuck in a holding pattern, she said.

“The bottom line is that sellers know how much their house is worth, yet when they see the amount of capital gains taxes they have to pay, it’s frustrating for them to see how much less they’re actually going to receive.”

Congressional Action

A bipartisan effort to resolve the issue is already underway in Congress. Reps. Jimmy Panetta (D-Calif.) and Mike Kelly (R-Pa.), along with many others, in February reintroduced the More Homes on the Market Act to make housing more available and affordable for Americans.

The legislation would update the tax code by doubling the exclusion of capital gains from the sale of a principal residence. For single sellers, the exemption would move to $500,000 and for couples, to $1 million. The bill is designed to incentivize homeowners to sell their properties, thereby increasing the supply of housing and helping to alleviate affordability challenges across the country.

“If this bill is not passed, the declines in housing inventory, along with the consequences of greater housing costs and increased homelessness, will only get worse,” DeLeon noted.

“Electing to deny this bill will push America further into a housing market where only large, wealthy corporations can purchase the increasingly rare single-family home.”

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) is advocating for the passage of the bill. In a just-released white paper, NAR indicated that “homeowners are facing a looming tax penalty simply for staying in their homes too long.”

Noting that the capital gains exclusion hasn’t been updated for inflation for 28 years, NAR called the thresholds “outdated” and said it was “distorting the housing market.”

A recent NAR study quoted in the white paper indicates that 34 percent of homeowners today (29 million) could already exceed the $250,000 capital gains exclusion cap for single filers. More than 10 percent (8 million) have potential gains above the $500,000 threshold for couples filing jointly. The study also predicts that by 2030, 56 percent of homeowners, or 47 million, are projected to potentially exceed the $250,000 threshold, and nearly 23 percent (20 million) could surpass $500,000.

“At a time when many of these homeowners are considering downsizing or moving to a retirement facility, more and more are facing gains well in excess of the exclusions, which can leave them owing many thousands of dollars in taxes and reduce their ability to afford a new home,” the study states.

DeLeon also noted that seniors often rely on their home investment to sustain them throughout their lives as a supplement to their social security checks.

“However, many may now find themselves near poverty and cash-poor when high taxes prevent them from selling their homes,” he said.

He is encouraging everyone nationwide to contact their congressional representatives to push for passage of the More Homes on the Market Act.

“Let us enact a policy that will make home ownership easier for everyone and allow the societal benefits of greater home ownership to become a reality again,” DeLeon said.