Summary

• Hostile activity, explosions reported on Iran’s southern coastal area along Hormuz.

• The Trump admin mulls restarting operation to guide ships through the Strait of Hormuz with naval and air support as early as this week after Saudi Arabia and Kuwait lifted restrictions on US access to their bases and airspaces

• Iran national security commission ‘red line’: No uranium has left the country; The right to enrich uranium, the complete lifting of sanctions, and the release of the country’s assets are non-negotiable red lines.

• Sentiment in early morning trade was lifted after Al Arabiya reported that “the coming hours will witness a breakthrough for the situation of the ships stuck in the strait”.

• Pakistani sources said Trump has demanded Iran’s “immediate response” to Washington’s peace proposal.

• French nuclear-powered carrier steams through Suez Canal in support mission as Europe seeks diplomatic influence over Hormuz outcome.

• First Chinese tanker reportedly attacked: shipping industry source told Caixin that this was the first time a Chinese tanker was hit in the three-month-long war, calling it “psychologically very hard to accept.”

*  *  *

Explosions, Possible Hostile Action Reported on Coast

During the night hours in Iran, state media has been issuing contradictory reports of mystery explosions along the Hormuz corridor. It’s as yet unclear what’s happening, but reports say a pier was struck near Bandar Abbas, with other southern areas witnessing possible drone activity, and return anti-air fire. There’s little that’s confirmable at this early point. Via DropSite:

• Iran’s IRGC-linked Tasnim News Agency reports that some Iranian sources are alleging “hostile action” by the UAE at Bahman Qeshm Dock near Bandar Abbas, though no official confirmation has been issued.
• Some reports claimed air defenses responded to two drones after multiple explosions were heard in the Bandar Abbas area.
• Other sources alleged the UAE, described by Tasnim as acting “as a tool of the Zionist regime,” was behind the incident at the dock.
• Tasnim emphasized the claims remain unconfirmed
• Iran’s Mehr says air defenses shot down two ‘hostile’ drones over Bandar Abbas and Qeshm.

💢BREAKING: Iranian State Media Reports Commercial Pier Struck Near Bandar Abbas

Iranian IRGC-affiliated outlet Fars News Agency reported Thursday that parts of the Bahman Qeshm pier, a commercial and passenger port on the eastern side of Qeshm Island at the entrance to the… pic.twitter.com/nxgmpDvvk4

— Drop Site (@DropSiteNews) May 7, 2026

Trump Reportedly Mulling ‘Project Freedom’ Restart After Gulf States Lift Curbs On Military Access

The S&P 500 fell to session lows as oil spiked after the Wall Street Journal reported that the US is looking to restart Project Freedom as early as this week and that Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have lifted curbs on airspace access.

Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have lifted restrictions on the U.S. military’s use of their bases and airspace imposed after the start of the American operation to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, according to U.S. and Saudi officials, easing a hurdle that had tripped up President Trump’s effort to move ships through the vital waterway.

The Trump administration is now looking to restart the operation to guide commercial ships with naval and air support that it had paused after 36 hours this week, U.S. officials said.

It isn’t clear when that could happen though Pentagon officials gave a timeline of as early as this week.

The U.S. operation to force open the strait relied on an enormous fleet of aircraft to protect commercial ships from Iranian missiles and drones, making Saudi and Kuwaiti bases and airspace critical to its execution.

The kneejerk reaction was higher oil prices…

…and the odds of a peace deal by the end of next week lower…

Trump had suspended the effort, called Project Freedom, on Tuesday evening, after a phone call with the kingdom’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in which the de facto Saudi leader conveyed his concerns and advised the president of the decision about base and airspace restrictions, the Saudi officials said. The president tried to get the Gulf leader to back down, they said.

Iran Reiterates Uranium ‘Red Line’ – Pushes Oil Up

While this is nothing ‘new’ – the timing is key, given the US is still awaiting Tehran’s response to the latest peace deal proposal, at a moment reports say the President Trump wants to wrap this up.

Iran Secretary of the National Security Commission of the Parliament told Nour News: No uranium has left the country; The right to enrich uranium, the complete lifting of sanctions, and the release of the country’s assets are non-negotiable red lines. Further he said that “Trump’s claim about the withdrawal of 400 kilograms of uranium from Iran is a “political bluff and a pure lie.” No uranium has left the country.”

The return of such firm rhetoric, and the likelihood that this signals a rejection of current Washington demands, sent oil climbing back up…

Oil Slides on Reports of ‘Breakthrough’ Coming for Stuck Ships

A very optimistic but unconfirmed early Thursday report: Sentiment in early morning trade was lifted after Al Arabiya reported that “the coming hours will witness a breakthrough for the situation of the ships stuck in the strait”.

“The American naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz is likely to be lifted after Washington and Tehran reportedly reached an agreement in this regard,” the Saudi media report says. “The agreement between both the sides on lifting the naval blockade was reached upon on Thursday (may 7) after US agreed for a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.”

Oil has been sliding through the morning…

And here’s a huge but from Politico:

President Donald Trump’s constant belittling of Iranian leaders is alarming some Arab and U.S. officials familiar with the Middle East who worry that such insults could prove a major obstacle to truly ending a war that has strained the world economy. At the core of their concern is whether Trump is willing to show Tehran’s Islamist leaders enough respect to let them claim some level of victory, even if they agree to U.S. demands that leave them militarily weaker.

“He badly wants this to end,” a senior Gulf Arab official familiar with the peace talks said of Trump. “But the Iranians are so far refusing to give him what he needs to save face and leave. And he does not seem to understand that they need to save face, too.”

French Nuclear-Powered Carrier to Enter Red Sea, Gulf of Aden

France and Britain could be poised to very belatedly join the US military in Middle East regional waters, according to movements of warships as well as fresh statements. Egypt and France on Wednesday oversaw the transit of the French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle through the Suez Canal as part of a southbound convoy, the Suez Canal Authority announced.

The French Ministry of the Armed Forces has announced the nuclear-powered carrier is deploying to the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden as part of a multinational effort to restore navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, according to a fresh statement. So it’s clear the convoy will remain largely in a background support role when compared to the US naval blockade in the Gulf of Oman region. Paris and London have also made clear their ships would only directly join Persian Gulf operations only once the war ended.

(Reuters) – Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian said he met recently with Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, state media reported on Thursday, offering a first public account of him meeting Khamenei after the latter suffered severe wounds at the start of the U.S.-Israeli war on…

— Phil Stewart (@phildstewart) May 7, 2026

On a technical level, the White House has just this week sought to pronounce that Operation Epic Fury has ended, and Project Freedom has begun. It’s unclear whether the European allies buy this designation, however. Marcon has sought to make clear that France is not a party to the conflict, but Europe is seeking a diplomatic voice at the table after spending the last two months largely on the sidelines.

Two Key Gulf Allies Reportedly Suspended Base, Airspace Access For US

President Trump abruptly halted plans to support commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz after Saudi Arabia suspended US military access to its bases and airspace for the operation, two US officials told NBC. Kuwait is reported to have imposed similar restrictions in wake of being on the receiving end of Iranian missiles.

According to the officials, Trump caught Gulf allies off guard when he announced Project Freedom on Truth Social, triggering anger in Riyadh. Saudi Arabia is said to have responded by informing Washington that US forces would not be permitted to operate aircraft from Prince Sultan Air Base southeast of Riyadh or transit Saudi airspace in support of the mission. Other Gulf allies were also reportedly surprised by the development, with Drop Site News also reporting Kuwait has made a similar move to cut or restrict base access.

But here is how Trump framed the pause at the time in a Truth Social post: “Based on the request of Pakistan and other Countries, the tremendous Military Success that we have had during the Campaign against the Country of Iran and, additionally”… and he also said it was necessary “to see whether or not the Agreement can be finalized and signed.“ By the following day it became clear that the two sides were no closer to getting to the negotiating table, much less actually inking an agreement to end the war.

President Trump has laid out a clear choice for Iran: Reach a deal, or the bombing resumes. pic.twitter.com/isThSrLwo9

— Trey Yingst (@TreyYingst) May 7, 2026

The White House is meanwhile denying the main content of the NBC report, with one official insisting that “regional allies were briefed in advance.”

First Chinese Tanker Attacked Near Hormuz As Beijing Urges Waterway Reopened

There have certainly been escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz this week amid a wave of Iranian attacks on commercial ships after a U.S. military effort to escort merchant vessels through the maritime chokepoint. By midweek, tensions had simmered, and Iran is still reviewing a 14-point U.S. proposal to end the war, with Tehran expected to send its response to Pakistani mediators later today.

President Trump said talks with Iran have been “very good” and suggested a deal remains possible. Iran’s Foreign Ministry confirmed the U.S. proposal is still under review. But when chaos erupted on the world’s most critical waterway at the beginning of the week, a new report said that a large refined-products tanker owned by a Chinese shipowner was attacked off the UAE’s Al Jeer port on Monday, according to Reuters.

Beijing-based business media outlet Caixin reported that the vessel’s deck erupted in flames after the attack. The outlet noted the vessel was marked “CHINA OWNER & CREW.” A shipping industry source told Caixin that this was the first time a Chinese tanker was hit in the three-month-long war, calling it “psychologically very hard to accept.”

Shortly after the Chinese tanker was attacked, it became clear why, two days later on Wednesday, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi called for the swift reopening of the Hormuz chokepoint. “The international community shares a common concern for the restoration of normal and safe passage of the strait,” Foreign Minister Wang Yi told Iran’s Abbas Araghchi, according to an official Chinese statement. “China hopes that the parties concerned will respond to the strong appeal of the international community as soon as possible.”

China’s urgency to resolve the highly disrupted Hormuz chokepoint comes just over a week before President Trump flies to Beijing to meet with President Xi Jinping. The big question is whether China will cooperate with the U.S. to end the conflict and reopen the Strait, as much of the tanker flow through this critical waterway is destined for Asia, and the disruption has led to fuel shortages and soaring prices of crude oil and related products in the region.

“China likes to present itself as a great stabilizing force in the world, but imagine if they had a genuine diplomatic achievement, such as brokering the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, as proof of that,” Richard McGregor, senior fellow at the Lowy Institute, told Bloomberg. He noted that some in Beijing would advocate for using the moment to “squeeze some concessions out of the US” on issues such as Taiwan. The first Chinese tanker attacked in the U.S.-Iran conflict, as well as the upcoming Trump-Xi summit, might be the catalysts for the international community to pressure Iran into a peace deal with the U.S. Meanwhile, a French aircraft carrier is transiting through the southern part of the Suez Canal and into the Red Sea, preparing to restore Hormuz tanker flows.

More Regional Developments

via Newsquawk

• Al Arabiya reported that “the coming hours will witness a breakthrough for the situation of the ships stuck in the strait”, spurring pressure in the crude complex.
• Iran is expected to provide its reply to the US proposal for ending the war to mediators on Thursday, according to CNN, citing a regional source.
• US President Trump could turn to military action without an agreement with Iran ahead of the China trip, according to Axios, citing US officials.
• Iran is expected to provide its reply to mediators on Thursday, CNN reported citing a regional source.
• “Arabic sources: Reaching understandings regarding easing the siege in exchange for the gradual opening of the Strait of Hormuz “, Al Arabiya reported; “The coming hours will witness a breakthrough for the situation of the ships stuck in the strait”.
• Pakistani Foreign Ministry spokesperson said, “We do not talk about war and instead talk about dialogue and diplomacy. However, if any aggression similar to what we saw last year, we will respond; Pakistan will respond just as it did”, Mallick posted.
• Pakistani Foreign Ministry Spokesperson said “We have not yet received a response from Iran regarding the US amendments”, Al Jazeera reported.
• “Pakistani source to Al Arabiya said Iran may hand over its response to the US proposal to the Pakistani mediator today”, Al Arabiya.
• “No arrangements for any direct meetings between the Iranians and the Americans so far.”.
• “Contacts with the Iranians are ongoing and there are no obstacles hindering continued”.
• “Discussions are ongoing regarding the status of the Strait of Hormuz, and reaching understandings is still possible”.
• Pakistani Foreign Ministry said “We expect an urgent agreement between Iran and the United States”, Al Araby reported.
• “Israel was informed that Iran has agreed to transfer its stockpile of 60% enriched uranium to a third country that remains unknown”, Sky News Arabia reported citing Israeli Channel 12.
• Pakistani Foreign Ministry spokesperson, on US-Iran agreement, said “we would expect an agreement sooner rather than later”, Pakistani journalist Mallick posted.
• “We will welcome any settlement wherever that takes place, if it takes place in Islamabad, it would be an honour and privilege.”.
• The proposed agreement between the US and Iran may limit the IDF’s action in Lebanon, Israeli press reported citing an Israeli official.
• US President Trump, on Iran, said it will all work out very quickly.
• IDF said it has intercepted suspicious aerial target launched from Lebanon towards Israel following sirens that sounded in Manara, Margaliot and Kiryat Shmona.
• Lebanon’s PM Salam said it is not seeking normalisation with Israel and it is too early to discuss any possible meeting with Israeli PM Netanyahu.
• Iran has issued a message to commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, saying Iran’s port is fully prepared to provide general maritime services and support to the vessels, IRNA reported.
• US President Trump could turn to military action without an Iran agreement ahead of the China trip, Axios reported citing US officials.
• US President Trump’s reversal on his plan to help ships go through the Strait of Hormuz came after Saudi Arabia suspended the US’s ability to use its bases and airspace to carry out Project Freedom, NBC reported citing US officials.
• IRGC Navy Political Affairs Official said we will impose our control over the Strait of Hormuz, and any attack will be met with a plan beyond the enemy’s calculations, Al Jazeera reported.

In the latest indication that Israel’s position in American politics is growing increasingly shaky, a group of 30 House Democrats have co-signed a letter to Secretary of State Marco Rubio, demanding that the US government finally acknowledge the existence of Israel’s nuclear arsenal. It’s a milestone event: For decades, both parties have diligently co-conspired in avoiding such a confirmation, typically claiming ignorance on the rare occasions when journalists or citizens asked them about it.

MUST SEE: For many years, journalist @samhusseini has tracked down high-level politicos in Washington, D.C. and asked them variations of the same question:

“Do you know that Israel has nuclear weapons?”

Watch as he presses John Negroponte, Mike Pence, John Kerry, the Biden and… pic.twitter.com/kDtFyZhA4i

— Decensored News (@decensorednews) April 7, 2026

Now we have dozens of House representatives asking the question. “This is something that people did not dare do before,” Avner Cohen, a historian of Israel’s nuclear program, told the Washington Post. “Even raising these questions publicly is a departure from a bipartisan norm.”

The letter puts the need for transparency in the context of the ongoing US-Israel-initiated war with Iran — which was launched over the claim that Iran was on the brink of developing a nuclear weapon, a claim that clashes with the repeated conclusions of the US intelligence community. The letter emphasizes that many of the countries with stakes in the conflict — including the United States, the UK, Russia, China and Pakistan — are nuclear-weapon states. 

“The risks of miscalculation, escalation, and nuclear use in this environment are not theoretical…Congress has a constitutional responsibility to be fully informed about the nuclear balance in the Middle East, the risk of escalation by any party to this conflict, and the administration’s planning and contingencies for such scenarios.”

Further violating the long-running bipartisan commitment to ignoring Israel’s doomsday arsenal, the four-page letter points to many indications of that arsenal’s existence, including revelations and photographs provided in 1986 by Israeli nuclear technician Mordechai Vanunu, the contents of a formerly classified 1974 National Intelligence Estimate, and a statement-under-oath by then-Secretary of Defense nominee Robert Gates casually including Israel in a list of nuclear powers operating in the Middle East. 

The letter culminates in a pointed list of questions. Among other things, the Democratic representatives demand to know what nuclear weapons capability Israel has, the country’s enrichment capabilities, and its doctrine guiding the use of nuclear weapons.

The Post reports that the Trump administration has been assessing Israel’s potential to go nuclear in its joint war on Iran with the United States. “There is a low boil of unease about Israel’s nuclear program and what could compel them to use nuclear weapons short of facing a WMD attack,” a Trump administration official told the Post. One such scenario that US officials are said to “frequently” wring their hands over: An overwhelming barrage that causes an extraordinarily higher pace of Israeli civilian casualties. 

The letter to Rubio was organized by Texas Democratic Rep. Joaquin Castro. As we reported in March, Castro used a House hearing to put America’s top arms control official on the spot, pointedly asking him, “Does Israel have nuclear weapons?” Under Secretary of State for Arms Control Thomas G. DiNanno repeatedly dodged and obfuscated, even claiming that “it would be outside of my purview as the arms control and arms proliferation under secretary to discuss that specific question.”

We are four weeks into a war where both sides have targeted each other’s nuclear facilities.

We risk nuclear disaster. Yet the main Trump official on arms control refused to answer my question on Israel’s nuclear capabilities and told me to ask the Israeli government. pic.twitter.com/Sxnru3EIrl

— Joaquin Castro (@JoaquinCastrotx) March 25, 2026

The letter recounts DiNanno’s refusal to answer question posed by Castro, and three of the questions for Rubio directly probe the  veil of secrecy surrounding Israel’s nuclear weapons: 

• “What are the specific restrictions on Undersecretary DiNanno answering such a question?
• What is the Department’s guidance to its employees on the discussion of any Israeli nuclear weapons capability?
• Please provide any documentation or information regarding the administration’s policy on discussing any potential Israeli nuclear weapons capability, including who has issued any such policies, what such restrictions cover, and who is bound by those restrictions.”

Those questions are doubly awkward, because it may be illegal for Rubio to answer them. A secret classification directive issued by the Obama administration seemingly makes explicit the prohibition on talking about Israeli nuclear weapons. It was released in 2015 pursuant to a Freedom of Information Act inquiry. Though its contents are almost entirely redacted, the un-redacted title speaks volumes: “Guidance on Release of Information Relating to the Potential for an Israeli Nuclear Capability.”

One driver of Washington’s practice of feigning ignorance about Israel’s nuclear arsenal is the fact that — combined with Israel’s refusal to join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty — Israel’s arsenal makes every dollar of US aid to Israel illegal, thanks to legislation enacted in the 1970s. While not addressing that inconvenient truth explicitly, the House Dems’ letter to Rubio made an implicit reference to it: “If any such disclosure of any Israeli nuclear weapons capability would implicate U.S. laws concerning nonproliferation, we are ready to work with you to address those concerns through legislative action.”

That language suggests that the Dems would cooperate in explicitly granting Israel an exception to the ban on aid to non-NPT nuclear states. Israel and its supporters often claim indignation when the country is, in their words, “singled out” for criticism. We don’t expect they’ll complain if Israel is singled out for an explicit exception to US nuclear non-proliferation law.  

In the latest indication that Israel’s position in American politics is growing increasingly shaky, a group of 30 House Democrats have co-signed a letter to Secretary of State Marco Rubio, demanding that the US government finally acknowledge the existence of Israel’s nuclear arsenal. It’s a milestone event: For decades, both parties have diligently co-conspired in avoiding such a confirmation, typically claiming ignorance on the rare occasions when journalists or citizens asked them about it.

MUST SEE: For many years, journalist @samhusseini has tracked down high-level politicos in Washington, D.C. and asked them variations of the same question:

“Do you know that Israel has nuclear weapons?”

Watch as he presses John Negroponte, Mike Pence, John Kerry, the Biden and… pic.twitter.com/kDtFyZhA4i

— Decensored News (@decensorednews) April 7, 2026

Now we have dozens of House representatives asking the question. “This is something that people did not dare do before,” Avner Cohen, a historian of Israel’s nuclear program, told the Washington Post. “Even raising these questions publicly is a departure from a bipartisan norm.”

The letter puts the need for transparency in the context of the ongoing US-Israel-initiated war with Iran — which was launched over the claim that Iran was on the brink of developing a nuclear weapon, a claim that clashes with the repeated conclusions of the US intelligence community. The letter emphasizes that many of the countries with stakes in the conflict — including the United States, the UK, Russia, China and Pakistan — are nuclear-weapon states. 

“The risks of miscalculation, escalation, and nuclear use in this environment are not theoretical…Congress has a constitutional responsibility to be fully informed about the nuclear balance in the Middle East, the risk of escalation by any party to this conflict, and the administration’s planning and contingencies for such scenarios.”

Further violating the long-running bipartisan commitment to ignoring Israel’s doomsday arsenal, the four-page letter points to many indications of that arsenal’s existence, including revelations and photographs provided in 1986 by Israeli nuclear technician Mordechai Vanunu, the contents of a formerly classified 1974 National Intelligence Estimate, and a statement-under-oath by then-Secretary of Defense nominee Robert Gates casually including Israel in a list of nuclear powers operating in the Middle East. 

The letter culminates in a pointed list of questions. Among other things, the Democratic representatives demand to know what nuclear weapons capability Israel has, the country’s enrichment capabilities, and its doctrine guiding the use of nuclear weapons.

The Post reports that the Trump administration has been assessing Israel’s potential to go nuclear in its joint war on Iran with the United States. “There is a low boil of unease about Israel’s nuclear program and what could compel them to use nuclear weapons short of facing a WMD attack,” a Trump administration official told the Post. One such scenario that US officials are said to “frequently” wring their hands over: An overwhelming barrage that causes an extraordinarily higher pace of Israeli civilian casualties. 

The letter to Rubio was organized by Texas Democratic Rep. Joaquin Castro. As we reported in March, Castro used a House hearing to put America’s top arms control official on the spot, pointedly asking him, “Does Israel have nuclear weapons?” Under Secretary of State for Arms Control Thomas G. DiNanno repeatedly dodged and obfuscated, even claiming that “it would be outside of my purview as the arms control and arms proliferation under secretary to discuss that specific question.”

We are four weeks into a war where both sides have targeted each other’s nuclear facilities.

We risk nuclear disaster. Yet the main Trump official on arms control refused to answer my question on Israel’s nuclear capabilities and told me to ask the Israeli government. pic.twitter.com/Sxnru3EIrl

— Joaquin Castro (@JoaquinCastrotx) March 25, 2026

The letter recounts DiNanno’s refusal to answer question posed by Castro, and three of the questions for Rubio directly probe the  veil of secrecy surrounding Israel’s nuclear weapons: 

• “What are the specific restrictions on Undersecretary DiNanno answering such a question?
• What is the Department’s guidance to its employees on the discussion of any Israeli nuclear weapons capability?
• Please provide any documentation or information regarding the administration’s policy on discussing any potential Israeli nuclear weapons capability, including who has issued any such policies, what such restrictions cover, and who is bound by those restrictions.”

Those questions are doubly awkward, because it may be illegal for Rubio to answer them. A secret classification directive issued by the Obama administration seemingly makes explicit the prohibition on talking about Israeli nuclear weapons. It was released in 2015 pursuant to a Freedom of Information Act inquiry. Though its contents are almost entirely redacted, the un-redacted title speaks volumes: “Guidance on Release of Information Relating to the Potential for an Israeli Nuclear Capability.”

One driver of Washington’s practice of feigning ignorance about Israel’s nuclear arsenal is the fact that — combined with Israel’s refusal to join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty — Israel’s arsenal makes every dollar of US aid to Israel illegal, thanks to legislation enacted in the 1970s. While not addressing that inconvenient truth explicitly, the House Dems’ letter to Rubio made an implicit reference to it: “If any such disclosure of any Israeli nuclear weapons capability would implicate U.S. laws concerning nonproliferation, we are ready to work with you to address those concerns through legislative action.”

That language suggests that the Dems would cooperate in explicitly granting Israel an exception to the ban on aid to non-NPT nuclear states. Israel and its supporters often claim indignation when the country is, in their words, “singled out” for criticism. We don’t expect they’ll complain if Israel is singled out for an explicit exception to US nuclear non-proliferation law.  

Authored by Petr Svab via The Epoch Times,

Average gas prices in the United States have gone up by almost 40 percent since March 1.

The reason appears straightforward: Iran has blocked the Strait of Hormuz in response to the U.S. military operation that decapitated its regime and degraded its military. Hundreds of tankers trapped behind the strait cannot deliver their oil, depriving the world of 7 percent to 10 percent of its supply.

Although that explains drastic price increases and even shortages in Europe and Asia, the United States gets almost no oil through the strait. In theory, the country should be energy-independent, as it is a net petroleum exporter.

But in reality, the United States is highly intertwined with the global oil market, and there is little chance it could disentangle itself from it, according to experts who spoke to The Epoch Times.

“Oil is a fungible commodity that can be shipped anywhere in the world, and that is why everyone is impacted by the events,” said Patrick De Haan, petroleum analyst with gas price tracker GasBuddy.

Countries facing shortages are willing to pay top dollar for U.S. oil.

“There’s huge demand to export the product,“ said Paul Sankey, an oil market analyst and president of Sankey Research.

”So that draws the prices up.”

If the U.S. government were to impose limits on oil exports, it would likely cause more problems than it would solve, the experts said.

Light Sweet Versus Heavy Sour

Not all crude oil is made the same. The oil produced in the United States through fracking is called “light sweet.” It is the easiest to refine and contains few impurities such as sulphur.

Much of Middle Eastern oil is categorized as “medium.” It is still fairly easy to process, but it is thicker and contains more sulphur. Canada largely produces “heavy sour” oil. It is even thicker and more sulphurous. Venezuela, despite its gigantic reserves, produces mostly very heavy, sour oil that few refineries can process.

U.S. refineries are generally geared toward heavier oil.

An aerial view shows the Chevron El Segundo refinery, one of California’s largest petroleum processing facilities, in Manhattan Beach, Calif., on April 8, 2026. Average gas prices in the United States have gone up by almost 40 percent since March 1 amid the war in Iran. Mario Tama/Getty Images

“Most of our refineries were built at least half a century ago now,“ said David Blackmon, an energy policy analyst and adviser. ”They were set up to refine heavier grades of crude oil coming in from the Middle East and Mexico, the big producing countries at that time, because we were heavily dependent on foreign oil during those days.”

Refineries have been adjusting to processing lighter grades, Sankey noted.

But switching from one grade to another remains difficult, said Keming Ma, former process engineer at a major refinery in Asia. It is easier to change the oil than the refinery.

“They blend the oil with a different grade to accommodate the refinery,” he said.

In fact, refineries have an incentive to maintain their setup for heavier oil, according to Robert Dauffenbach, an energy expert and professor emeritus at the University of Oklahoma’s Price College of Business.

“These companies have invested billions of dollars into being able to take advantage of the price spread between heavier sour crude, which, quite frankly, can’t be run at every single refinery, so it tends to be cheaper,” he said.

And so the United States exports about 5 million barrels of largely light oil daily, while importing more than 6 million barrels of largely heavy oil.

“We’re kind of maxed out on the amount of light, sweet crude we can run out of refineries,” Dauffenbach said.

And there is another reason why heavier oil is desirable.

Refineries separate crude oil through distillation into fractions, from the lightest such as methane and propane, through petrol (gasoline), and then into heavier oils such as kerosene, diesel, and heating oil until only asphalt is left. The lighter the crude, the less of the heavier fractions it yields.

An aerial photo shows the Nave Photon crude oil tanker carrying Venezuelan oil docked in Freeport, Texas, on Jan. 16, 2026. Venezuela’s crude is largely heavy and sour—thicker and more sulphurous—making it difficult for most refineries to process. Mark Felix/AFP via Getty Images

“We import heavy sour … because we need it for our refineries to make heavier products like diesel and jet fuel,” said Tracy Shuchart, a senior economist at NinjaTrader Group.

Export Ban Repercussions

“[Limiting exports] would likely push prices down here temporarily, but it would negatively impact many of our major allies that are now relying on us,” De Haan said.

The United States produces about 13 million barrels of crude per day, but its refineries, now running virtually at maximum capacity, guzzle about 16 million barrels per day, Dauffenbach said. The refineries produce more than Americans consume.

“America is a big winner from the exports,“ Sankey said.

”So you’d be shooting yourself in the foot if you banned exports.”

A ban would also throw a wrench into the supply chain.

“Our domestic storage would fill up with this light grade of crude coming out of the shale place, and we’d have to stop importing that heavier crude that we need to manufacture diesel,” Blackmon said.

A farmer prepares a blend of minerals, biologicals, and fertilizers to be sprayed onto fields during seeding in Hickory, N.C., on April 10, 2026. Experts say demand for fuels such as diesel and jet fuel is one reason U.S. refineries favor heavier crude. Grant Baldwin/AFP via Getty Images

It is the heavier fractions “that are very highly desirable right now,” De Haan said.

“Right now, the price of diesel is up even more significantly than gasoline,“ he said. ”So if anything, refiners would like more heavy oil right now.”

An export ban would also have a chilling effect on the industry.

“You’re going to disincentivize more export infrastructure,” Sankey said.

There is not much risk that exports would dent domestic supply too much, he added.

“There’s a limit on how much we can export as well,“ he said. ”So that’s probably not going to be a huge pull above a certain level of exports, which will be the capacity maximization of the existing export infrastructure.”

The Trump administration has already made clear that an export ban is not on the table.

Fuel prices are displayed at a truck stop in Belvidere, Ill., on April 6, 2026. With diesel prices rising faster than gasoline, refiners are turning to import heavier crude needed to produce diesel, experts said. Scott Olson/Getty Images

What Is Next?

The most obvious way out of the current conundrum is to open the Strait of Hormuz. Yet it is not clear how and when that will happen.

Iran does not have the capacity to block the strait outright. Yet it can still issue a credible threat to attack passing vessels. In response, insurance companies are not willing to insure ships, hence shipping companies are not willing to risk passage.

The Trump administration is trying to negotiate a deal with Iran amid a rolling ceasefire. Meanwhile, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, a part of Iran’s military that answers to the clerical regime leadership, continues to threaten the crucial shipping lane.

The uncertainty leaves traders scrambling for clues about where oil prices are heading.

Boats navigate the sea in the Strait of Hormuz near Qeshm Island, Iran, on April 28, 2026. The Trump administration is trying to negotiate a deal with Iran amid a rolling ceasefire, but it rejected Iran’s last offer and continues to blockade Iran’s ports. Asghar Besharati/Getty Images

“The market is trying to figure this out,” Dauffenbach said.

It seems, though, that the general tendency is for prices to rise.

“It’s pretty clear in my mind that oil prices are going to continue to slowly rise until there’s a resolution here,” De Haan said.

“That’s what we’re starting to see again. The ceasefire and the peace talks only temporarily pushed the oil prices lower.”

The initial price shock was not as drastic as some expected, in part because of the supply chain lag.

“Going into this conflict, we had some cushions against the supply shock,” Blackmon said.

“We had [about] 400 million barrels of oil already in tankers on the water that provided a cushion. That’s about four days of global supply.”

In addition, the United States, Japan, and China have substantial oil reserves.

“But those are now being depleted on a daily basis,“ he said. ”And, last I saw, about two-thirds of that cushion on the water has been delivered now.”

Still, the United States is much better off than many other countries, particularly in Asia and Europe.

Cars queue at an entry gate to the PCK Schwedt refinery in Schwedt, Germany, on April 30, 2026. Fuel prices in Germany have surged to more than $9 per gallon amid a global energy crisis tied to the Iran conflict. Tobias Schwarz/AFP via Getty Images

Americans experienced “a sticker shock” when gasoline went from $3 to $4, but “the gasoline price is already low here in global terms,” Sankey said, noting that in Germany, gas is now more than $9 per gallon.

The United States benefits not only from domestic supply, but also from substantial imports from Canada.

“About 95 percent of what we consume is here in North America,” Blackmon said.

“We get a little from Mexico, but their industry has really gone downhill in recent years. And then we get some from Venezuela, and some from Brazil and Guyana.”

Canadian oil is generally cheaper “because it has limited means to flow out to the global marketplace,” De Haan said, although he noted that Canada recently opened a pipeline to the West Coast, which will allow it to access other markets in the future.

Thus, Americans are seeing higher prices, but at least no shortages.

“We’re insulated from the big supply shock, because we have such a high degree of energy security,” Blackmon said.

Policy Fixes

Even without export restrictions, the U.S. federal government has some policy options for easing the situation. One thing it has already done is suspend the Jones Act, which states that only American-made and American-flagged ships with American crews can run between American ports. This restriction has previously increased shipping costs between American ports.

Although helpful, it does not move the price much, Dauffenbach said.

“Now they’re getting to the point where there’s not much difference between Jones Act and internationally flagged [ships] because there’s a lack of ships right now,” he said.

A pumpjack stands idle in the Huntington Beach oil field, with port cranes visible in the distance, in Huntington Beach, Calif., on April 23, 2026. America benefits not only from domestic supply, but also from substantial imports from Canada. Mario Tama/Getty Images

The government could call a gas tax holiday.

“It would bring prices down immediately by 18.4 cents a gallon,” he said.

Individual states could also roll back their gas taxes. Georgia has already done so, he noted.

Customers fill up with gas in Los Angeles on March 11, 2026. Despite higher prices, Americans have not faced shortages because of the country’s “high degree of energy security,” analyst David Blackmon said. John Fredricks/The Epoch Times

The federal government could allow year-round sales of E15, a fuel containing more ethanol.

“Ethanol is cheaper than gasoline right now, so that would help bring down prices a little bit,” he said.

For now, Americans are stuck paying more, as demand remains steady.

“It’s very difficult for demand to dissipate in the United States, unless things get really out of control, just because everybody has to drive everywhere here,” Shuchart said.

Authored by Petr Svab via The Epoch Times,

Average gas prices in the United States have gone up by almost 40 percent since March 1.

The reason appears straightforward: Iran has blocked the Strait of Hormuz in response to the U.S. military operation that decapitated its regime and degraded its military. Hundreds of tankers trapped behind the strait cannot deliver their oil, depriving the world of 7 percent to 10 percent of its supply.

Although that explains drastic price increases and even shortages in Europe and Asia, the United States gets almost no oil through the strait. In theory, the country should be energy-independent, as it is a net petroleum exporter.

But in reality, the United States is highly intertwined with the global oil market, and there is little chance it could disentangle itself from it, according to experts who spoke to The Epoch Times.

“Oil is a fungible commodity that can be shipped anywhere in the world, and that is why everyone is impacted by the events,” said Patrick De Haan, petroleum analyst with gas price tracker GasBuddy.

Countries facing shortages are willing to pay top dollar for U.S. oil.

“There’s huge demand to export the product,“ said Paul Sankey, an oil market analyst and president of Sankey Research.

”So that draws the prices up.”

If the U.S. government were to impose limits on oil exports, it would likely cause more problems than it would solve, the experts said.

Light Sweet Versus Heavy Sour

Not all crude oil is made the same. The oil produced in the United States through fracking is called “light sweet.” It is the easiest to refine and contains few impurities such as sulphur.

Much of Middle Eastern oil is categorized as “medium.” It is still fairly easy to process, but it is thicker and contains more sulphur. Canada largely produces “heavy sour” oil. It is even thicker and more sulphurous. Venezuela, despite its gigantic reserves, produces mostly very heavy, sour oil that few refineries can process.

U.S. refineries are generally geared toward heavier oil.

An aerial view shows the Chevron El Segundo refinery, one of California’s largest petroleum processing facilities, in Manhattan Beach, Calif., on April 8, 2026. Average gas prices in the United States have gone up by almost 40 percent since March 1 amid the war in Iran. Mario Tama/Getty Images

“Most of our refineries were built at least half a century ago now,“ said David Blackmon, an energy policy analyst and adviser. ”They were set up to refine heavier grades of crude oil coming in from the Middle East and Mexico, the big producing countries at that time, because we were heavily dependent on foreign oil during those days.”

Refineries have been adjusting to processing lighter grades, Sankey noted.

But switching from one grade to another remains difficult, said Keming Ma, former process engineer at a major refinery in Asia. It is easier to change the oil than the refinery.

“They blend the oil with a different grade to accommodate the refinery,” he said.

In fact, refineries have an incentive to maintain their setup for heavier oil, according to Robert Dauffenbach, an energy expert and professor emeritus at the University of Oklahoma’s Price College of Business.

“These companies have invested billions of dollars into being able to take advantage of the price spread between heavier sour crude, which, quite frankly, can’t be run at every single refinery, so it tends to be cheaper,” he said.

And so the United States exports about 5 million barrels of largely light oil daily, while importing more than 6 million barrels of largely heavy oil.

“We’re kind of maxed out on the amount of light, sweet crude we can run out of refineries,” Dauffenbach said.

And there is another reason why heavier oil is desirable.

Refineries separate crude oil through distillation into fractions, from the lightest such as methane and propane, through petrol (gasoline), and then into heavier oils such as kerosene, diesel, and heating oil until only asphalt is left. The lighter the crude, the less of the heavier fractions it yields.

An aerial photo shows the Nave Photon crude oil tanker carrying Venezuelan oil docked in Freeport, Texas, on Jan. 16, 2026. Venezuela’s crude is largely heavy and sour—thicker and more sulphurous—making it difficult for most refineries to process. Mark Felix/AFP via Getty Images

“We import heavy sour … because we need it for our refineries to make heavier products like diesel and jet fuel,” said Tracy Shuchart, a senior economist at NinjaTrader Group.

Export Ban Repercussions

“[Limiting exports] would likely push prices down here temporarily, but it would negatively impact many of our major allies that are now relying on us,” De Haan said.

The United States produces about 13 million barrels of crude per day, but its refineries, now running virtually at maximum capacity, guzzle about 16 million barrels per day, Dauffenbach said. The refineries produce more than Americans consume.

“America is a big winner from the exports,“ Sankey said.

”So you’d be shooting yourself in the foot if you banned exports.”

A ban would also throw a wrench into the supply chain.

“Our domestic storage would fill up with this light grade of crude coming out of the shale place, and we’d have to stop importing that heavier crude that we need to manufacture diesel,” Blackmon said.

A farmer prepares a blend of minerals, biologicals, and fertilizers to be sprayed onto fields during seeding in Hickory, N.C., on April 10, 2026. Experts say demand for fuels such as diesel and jet fuel is one reason U.S. refineries favor heavier crude. Grant Baldwin/AFP via Getty Images

It is the heavier fractions “that are very highly desirable right now,” De Haan said.

“Right now, the price of diesel is up even more significantly than gasoline,“ he said. ”So if anything, refiners would like more heavy oil right now.”

An export ban would also have a chilling effect on the industry.

“You’re going to disincentivize more export infrastructure,” Sankey said.

There is not much risk that exports would dent domestic supply too much, he added.

“There’s a limit on how much we can export as well,“ he said. ”So that’s probably not going to be a huge pull above a certain level of exports, which will be the capacity maximization of the existing export infrastructure.”

The Trump administration has already made clear that an export ban is not on the table.

Fuel prices are displayed at a truck stop in Belvidere, Ill., on April 6, 2026. With diesel prices rising faster than gasoline, refiners are turning to import heavier crude needed to produce diesel, experts said. Scott Olson/Getty Images

What Is Next?

The most obvious way out of the current conundrum is to open the Strait of Hormuz. Yet it is not clear how and when that will happen.

Iran does not have the capacity to block the strait outright. Yet it can still issue a credible threat to attack passing vessels. In response, insurance companies are not willing to insure ships, hence shipping companies are not willing to risk passage.

The Trump administration is trying to negotiate a deal with Iran amid a rolling ceasefire. Meanwhile, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, a part of Iran’s military that answers to the clerical regime leadership, continues to threaten the crucial shipping lane.

The uncertainty leaves traders scrambling for clues about where oil prices are heading.

Boats navigate the sea in the Strait of Hormuz near Qeshm Island, Iran, on April 28, 2026. The Trump administration is trying to negotiate a deal with Iran amid a rolling ceasefire, but it rejected Iran’s last offer and continues to blockade Iran’s ports. Asghar Besharati/Getty Images

“The market is trying to figure this out,” Dauffenbach said.

It seems, though, that the general tendency is for prices to rise.

“It’s pretty clear in my mind that oil prices are going to continue to slowly rise until there’s a resolution here,” De Haan said.

“That’s what we’re starting to see again. The ceasefire and the peace talks only temporarily pushed the oil prices lower.”

The initial price shock was not as drastic as some expected, in part because of the supply chain lag.

“Going into this conflict, we had some cushions against the supply shock,” Blackmon said.

“We had [about] 400 million barrels of oil already in tankers on the water that provided a cushion. That’s about four days of global supply.”

In addition, the United States, Japan, and China have substantial oil reserves.

“But those are now being depleted on a daily basis,“ he said. ”And, last I saw, about two-thirds of that cushion on the water has been delivered now.”

Still, the United States is much better off than many other countries, particularly in Asia and Europe.

Cars queue at an entry gate to the PCK Schwedt refinery in Schwedt, Germany, on April 30, 2026. Fuel prices in Germany have surged to more than $9 per gallon amid a global energy crisis tied to the Iran conflict. Tobias Schwarz/AFP via Getty Images

Americans experienced “a sticker shock” when gasoline went from $3 to $4, but “the gasoline price is already low here in global terms,” Sankey said, noting that in Germany, gas is now more than $9 per gallon.

The United States benefits not only from domestic supply, but also from substantial imports from Canada.

“About 95 percent of what we consume is here in North America,” Blackmon said.

“We get a little from Mexico, but their industry has really gone downhill in recent years. And then we get some from Venezuela, and some from Brazil and Guyana.”

Canadian oil is generally cheaper “because it has limited means to flow out to the global marketplace,” De Haan said, although he noted that Canada recently opened a pipeline to the West Coast, which will allow it to access other markets in the future.

Thus, Americans are seeing higher prices, but at least no shortages.

“We’re insulated from the big supply shock, because we have such a high degree of energy security,” Blackmon said.

Policy Fixes

Even without export restrictions, the U.S. federal government has some policy options for easing the situation. One thing it has already done is suspend the Jones Act, which states that only American-made and American-flagged ships with American crews can run between American ports. This restriction has previously increased shipping costs between American ports.

Although helpful, it does not move the price much, Dauffenbach said.

“Now they’re getting to the point where there’s not much difference between Jones Act and internationally flagged [ships] because there’s a lack of ships right now,” he said.

A pumpjack stands idle in the Huntington Beach oil field, with port cranes visible in the distance, in Huntington Beach, Calif., on April 23, 2026. America benefits not only from domestic supply, but also from substantial imports from Canada. Mario Tama/Getty Images

The government could call a gas tax holiday.

“It would bring prices down immediately by 18.4 cents a gallon,” he said.

Individual states could also roll back their gas taxes. Georgia has already done so, he noted.

Customers fill up with gas in Los Angeles on March 11, 2026. Despite higher prices, Americans have not faced shortages because of the country’s “high degree of energy security,” analyst David Blackmon said. John Fredricks/The Epoch Times

The federal government could allow year-round sales of E15, a fuel containing more ethanol.

“Ethanol is cheaper than gasoline right now, so that would help bring down prices a little bit,” he said.

For now, Americans are stuck paying more, as demand remains steady.

“It’s very difficult for demand to dissipate in the United States, unless things get really out of control, just because everybody has to drive everywhere here,” Shuchart said.

Layoffs are spreading across crypto and fintech — and executives increasingly say AI is part of the reason, according to Bloomberg.

Coinbase, PayPal, Gemini, and Crypto.com have all recently cut jobs while emphasizing efficiency and automation. On Tuesday, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong framed the shift in stark terms, warning that “the biggest risk now is not taking action” as the company tries to become “lean, fast, and AI-native.”

Bloomberg writes that the trend gained momentum after Block, Inc. — the parent company of Square, Inc. and Cash App — announced major cuts earlier this year and pointed to AI as part of a broader restructuring effort. Since then, more firms have adopted similar language, pitching layoffs as preparation for an AI-powered future.

Critics aren’t fully convinced. Many of these companies are also facing more immediate business pressures: crypto trading activity has cooled, digital asset prices remain below their recent highs, and payments companies are navigating slower growth and tighter competition. Some firms have additional internal challenges — Block, Inc. expanded aggressively during the pandemic-era boom, while PayPal is still working through a broader turnaround under new leadership.

That has fueled accusations of “AI washing,” where companies use artificial intelligence as a cleaner explanation for layoffs tied to weaker demand or overhiring. John Todaro of Needham & Company questioned how much of the narrative is real: “Whenever I see these layoffs and AI is part of the reason, I step back and ask, do we see this from companies where the market is super hot?” He added: “I am not sure I buy that AI angle.”

Others say both things can be true. Raman Shalupau, founder of CryptoJobsList, estimated that current cuts are “probably an 80/20 split across the industry right now between real AI efficiency gains versus trimming down from the last bull run.”

Even when companies aren’t cutting headcount, they’re reshaping jobs around automation. Coinbase has been flattening management layers and asking leaders to operate more like “player-coaches,” while 0G Labs said it reduced staff by 25% after internal AI tools significantly improved productivity.

The bigger question is whether this marks a permanent shift in how crypto and fintech firms operate — or whether AI has simply become the latest justification for cost-cutting during a tougher market cycle. For now, both explanations appear to be driving decisions.

Layoffs are spreading across crypto and fintech — and executives increasingly say AI is part of the reason, according to Bloomberg.

Coinbase, PayPal, Gemini, and Crypto.com have all recently cut jobs while emphasizing efficiency and automation. On Tuesday, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong framed the shift in stark terms, warning that “the biggest risk now is not taking action” as the company tries to become “lean, fast, and AI-native.”

Bloomberg writes that the trend gained momentum after Block, Inc. — the parent company of Square, Inc. and Cash App — announced major cuts earlier this year and pointed to AI as part of a broader restructuring effort. Since then, more firms have adopted similar language, pitching layoffs as preparation for an AI-powered future.

Critics aren’t fully convinced. Many of these companies are also facing more immediate business pressures: crypto trading activity has cooled, digital asset prices remain below their recent highs, and payments companies are navigating slower growth and tighter competition. Some firms have additional internal challenges — Block, Inc. expanded aggressively during the pandemic-era boom, while PayPal is still working through a broader turnaround under new leadership.

That has fueled accusations of “AI washing,” where companies use artificial intelligence as a cleaner explanation for layoffs tied to weaker demand or overhiring. John Todaro of Needham & Company questioned how much of the narrative is real: “Whenever I see these layoffs and AI is part of the reason, I step back and ask, do we see this from companies where the market is super hot?” He added: “I am not sure I buy that AI angle.”

Others say both things can be true. Raman Shalupau, founder of CryptoJobsList, estimated that current cuts are “probably an 80/20 split across the industry right now between real AI efficiency gains versus trimming down from the last bull run.”

Even when companies aren’t cutting headcount, they’re reshaping jobs around automation. Coinbase has been flattening management layers and asking leaders to operate more like “player-coaches,” while 0G Labs said it reduced staff by 25% after internal AI tools significantly improved productivity.

The bigger question is whether this marks a permanent shift in how crypto and fintech firms operate — or whether AI has simply become the latest justification for cost-cutting during a tougher market cycle. For now, both explanations appear to be driving decisions.

Ahead of tomorrow’s jobs report which is expected to show a substantial slowdown from last month’s 178K surge, moments ago we got another reminder that the stagflationary iceberg remains front and center ahead of the US, after the NY Fed’s latest monthly survey of consumer expectations reported that Inflation expectations at the one-year horizon rose again to 3.64% in April from the previous month’s 3.42%, the highest since September 2023. Inflation expectations were unchanged at 3.15% for the three-year-ahead horizon and also unchanged at 3.01% at the five-year-ahead horizon in April. 

The jump in year-ahead expectations took place even though 1 year gas inflation expectations tumbled sharply in April to 5.11% from 9.42% in April, which had been the highest reading since March 2022.

Other commodity price change expectations also rose, but to a more limited degree: food prices are now expected to rise 5.2%, down from 6%; medical costs to rise 9.6%, also a bit lower than the 9.7% in March; the price of a college education to rise 8.8% (down from 9%); and rent prices should drop from 7.1% to 6.0%.

Turning to the labor market, sentiment has continued to deteriorate fast with respondents saying that the mean probability the US unemployment rate will be higher next year rose another 0.4% (after the 3.6% jump a month ago) to 43.9%; highest reading since April 2025

On the other end, median one-year-ahead earnings growth expectations rose by 0.3% to 2.7% in March, tied for the highest since April 2025.

More bad news: the mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months increased again, this time by 0.2% to 14.6%, tied with the series’ 12-month trailing average of 14.6%. The mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily, or the expected quit rate, in the next 12 months declined by 0.1% to 18.2%.

A silver lining: the mean perceived probability of finding a job if one’s current job was increased modestly by 0.1% to 46.0%, while remaining below its 12-month trailing average of 47.5%. The increase was broad-based across age, education, and income groups.

Perceptions about households’ current financial situations also deteriorated compared to a year ago, with a larger share of households reporting a worse financial situation and a smaller share reporting a better financial situation. Year-ahead expectations about households’ financial situations also worsened, with the share of households expecting a worse financial situation at its highest level since April 2025, and a smaller share of households expecting a better financial situation in one year from now.

Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago also deteriorated, with a higher share of households reporting it is harder to get credit and a smaller share of households reporting it is easier to get credit. Expectations for future credit availability deteriorated, with the net share of respondents expecting it will be harder to obtain credit in the year ahead increasing.

 There was a glimmer of good news when it comes to household debt: the average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months decreased by 0.9% to 11.4% the lowest reading in more than two years and below the 12-month trailing average of 13.2%. 

But the most concerning data was that expectations for household income dropped again, for a 5th straight months, sliding to just 2.8%, the lowest since Oct 2025…

… while spending growth expectations jumped to 5.4% – after all those inflation-adjusted prices aren’t going down without a recession – the highest since July 2023.

And some more Household Finance observations:

• The median expectation regarding a year-ahead change in taxes at current income level increased by 0.3 percentage point to 3.4%.
• Median year-ahead expected growth in government debt increased by 0.2 percentage point to 10.0%, its highest reading since June 2023.
• The mean perceived probability that the average interest rate on saving accounts will be higher in 12 months increased to 26.7%, its highest reading since November 2024.
• The mean perceived probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher 12 months from now increased by 2.1 percentage points to 38.4%

More in the full report from the NY Fed.

Boeing shares rose in late-morning trading in New York after CNBC reported that CEO Kelly Ortberg will join President Trump on his trip to Beijing next week for talks with President Xi Jinping.

Boeing shares climbed a little more than 2% on the news as traders began to price in the possibility of a Chinese aircraft order, potentially covering both narrow-body and wide-body jets from the U.S.-based aircraft manufacturer.

Senator Steve Daines, who is leading the bipartisan delegation to China, has called for stability and peaceful cooperation between the U.S. and China.

“I strongly believe that we want to de-escalate, not decouple. We want stability; we want mutual respect,” Daines said in opening remarks at a meeting with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on Thursday, according to Reuters.

Daines also released a statement:

Readout of Daines’ Congressional Delegation Trip to China

U.S. Senators Steve Daines (R-MT), Maria Cantwell (D-WA), Jerry Moran (R-KS), and Deb Fischer (R-NE) today conducted three official meetings in Beijing with Premier of China Li Qiang, Chairman of the National People’s Congress Zhao Leji, and Director of the Office of the Central Foreign Affairs Commission and Foreign Minister Wang Yi.

The bipartisan delegation discussed the importance of direct and open communication between the leadership of the two countries as well as issues of international and local importance. Topics of discussion included cooperation to stop the flow of fentanyl precursors, Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, and supply chain security. The Senators discussed the importance of reciprocal trade and opening up China’s markets to sustained agriculture trade across beef, wheat, pulse crops, potatoes, apples, cherries, soybeans, grain sorghum, seafood, and other industries. The delegation also discussed the importance of China’s relationship with Boeing and the proposed aircraft purchase currently under consideration. The Senators expressed their hope for an impactful and successful summit between President Trump and President Xi next week.

Readout of Daines’ Congressional Delegation Trip to China pic.twitter.com/0rtj6CZNTj

— Steve Daines (@SteveDaines) May 7, 2026

Related:

• Did Trump Force China’s Hand? Beijing Nears 500-Jet Boeing Deal Ahead Of Xi Summit

Semafor speculates that the Trump team will invite “CEOs from Nvidia, Apple, Exxon, Boeing, and other big companies.” 

Given Beijing’s history of using large commercial aircraft purchases as goodwill gestures, Ortberg’s inclusion on the trip raises the likelihood that Boeing could benefit and suggests tensions are cooling between the two superpowers, despite ongoing energy and trade turmoil in the Gulf region.

Summary

• Iran national security commission ‘red line’: No uranium has left the country; The right to enrich uranium, the complete lifting of sanctions, and the release of the country’s assets are non-negotiable red lines.

• Sentiment in early morning trade was lifted after Al Arabiya reported that “the coming hours will witness a breakthrough for the situation of the ships stuck in the strait”.

• Pakistani sources said Trump has demanded Iran’s “immediate response” to Washington’s peace proposal.

• White House on Wednesday had said it expects a response to the latest offer within 48 hours.

• French nuclear-powered carrier steams through Suez Canal in support mission as Europe seeks diplomatic influence over Hormuz outcome.

• First Chinese tanker reportedly attacked: shipping industry source told Caixin that this was the first time a Chinese tanker was hit in the three-month-long war, calling it “psychologically very hard to accept.”

*  *  *

Iran Reiterates Uranium ‘Red Line’ – Pushes Oil Up

While this is nothing ‘new’ – the timing is key, given the US is still awaiting Tehran’s response to the latest peace deal proposal, at a moment reports say the President Trump wants to wrap this up.

Iran Secretary of the National Security Commission of the Parliament told Nour News: No uranium has left the country; The right to enrich uranium, the complete lifting of sanctions, and the release of the country’s assets are non-negotiable red lines. Further he said that “Trump’s claim about the withdrawal of 400 kilograms of uranium from Iran is a “political bluff and a pure lie.” No uranium has left the country.”

The return of such firm rhetoric, and the likelihood that this signals a rejection of current Washington demands, sent oil climbing back up…

Oil Slides on Reports of ‘Breakthrough’ Coming for Stuck Ships

A very optimistic but unconfirmed early Thursday report: Sentiment in early morning trade was lifted after Al Arabiya reported that “the coming hours will witness a breakthrough for the situation of the ships stuck in the strait”.

“The American naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz is likely to be lifted after Washington and Tehran reportedly reached an agreement in this regard,” the Saudi media report says. “The agreement between both the sides on lifting the naval blockade was reached upon on Thursday (may 7) after US agreed for a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.”

Oil has been sliding through the morning…

And here’s a huge but from Politico:

President Donald Trump’s constant belittling of Iranian leaders is alarming some Arab and U.S. officials familiar with the Middle East who worry that such insults could prove a major obstacle to truly ending a war that has strained the world economy. At the core of their concern is whether Trump is willing to show Tehran’s Islamist leaders enough respect to let them claim some level of victory, even if they agree to U.S. demands that leave them militarily weaker.

“He badly wants this to end,” a senior Gulf Arab official familiar with the peace talks said of Trump. “But the Iranians are so far refusing to give him what he needs to save face and leave. And he does not seem to understand that they need to save face, too.”

French Nuclear-Powered Carrier to Enter Red Sea, Gulf of Aden

France and Britain could be poised to very belatedly join the US military in Middle East regional waters, according to movements of warships as well as fresh statements. Egypt and France on Wednesday oversaw the transit of the French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle through the Suez Canal as part of a southbound convoy, the Suez Canal Authority announced.

The French Ministry of the Armed Forces has announced the nuclear-powered carrier is deploying to the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden as part of a multinational effort to restore navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, according to a fresh statement. So it’s clear the convoy will remain largely in a background support role when compared to the US naval blockade in the Gulf of Oman region. Paris and London have also made clear their ships would only directly join Persian Gulf operations only once the war ended.

(Reuters) – Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian said he met recently with Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, state media reported on Thursday, offering a first public account of him meeting Khamenei after the latter suffered severe wounds at the start of the U.S.-Israeli war on…

— Phil Stewart (@phildstewart) May 7, 2026

On a technical level, the White House has just this week sought to pronounce that Operation Epic Fury has ended, and Project Freedom has begun. It’s unclear whether the European allies buy this designation, however. Marcon has sought to make clear that France is not a party to the conflict, but Europe is seeking a diplomatic voice at the table after spending the last two months largely on the sidelines.

Two Key Gulf Allies Reportedly Suspended Base, Airspace Access For US

President Trump abruptly halted plans to support commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz after Saudi Arabia suspended US military access to its bases and airspace for the operation, two US officials told NBC. Kuwait is reported to have imposed similar restrictions in wake of being on the receiving end of Iranian missiles.

According to the officials, Trump caught Gulf allies off guard when he announced Project Freedom on Truth Social, triggering anger in Riyadh. Saudi Arabia is said to have responded by informing Washington that US forces would not be permitted to operate aircraft from Prince Sultan Air Base southeast of Riyadh or transit Saudi airspace in support of the mission. Other Gulf allies were also reportedly surprised by the development, with Drop Site News also reporting Kuwait has made a similar move to cut or restrict base access.

But here is how Trump framed the pause at the time in a Truth Social post: “Based on the request of Pakistan and other Countries, the tremendous Military Success that we have had during the Campaign against the Country of Iran and, additionally”… and he also said it was necessary “to see whether or not the Agreement can be finalized and signed.“ By the following day it became clear that the two sides were no closer to getting to the negotiating table, much less actually inking an agreement to end the war.

President Trump has laid out a clear choice for Iran: Reach a deal, or the bombing resumes. pic.twitter.com/isThSrLwo9

— Trey Yingst (@TreyYingst) May 7, 2026

The White House is meanwhile denying the main content of the NBC report, with one official insisting that “regional allies were briefed in advance.”

First Chinese Tanker Attacked Near Hormuz As Beijing Urges Waterway Reopened

There have certainly been escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz this week amid a wave of Iranian attacks on commercial ships after a U.S. military effort to escort merchant vessels through the maritime chokepoint. By midweek, tensions had simmered, and Iran is still reviewing a 14-point U.S. proposal to end the war, with Tehran expected to send its response to Pakistani mediators later today.

President Trump said talks with Iran have been “very good” and suggested a deal remains possible. Iran’s Foreign Ministry confirmed the U.S. proposal is still under review. But when chaos erupted on the world’s most critical waterway at the beginning of the week, a new report said that a large refined-products tanker owned by a Chinese shipowner was attacked off the UAE’s Al Jeer port on Monday, according to Reuters.

Beijing-based business media outlet Caixin reported that the vessel’s deck erupted in flames after the attack. The outlet noted the vessel was marked “CHINA OWNER & CREW.” A shipping industry source told Caixin that this was the first time a Chinese tanker was hit in the three-month-long war, calling it “psychologically very hard to accept.”

Shortly after the Chinese tanker was attacked, it became clear why, two days later on Wednesday, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi called for the swift reopening of the Hormuz chokepoint. “The international community shares a common concern for the restoration of normal and safe passage of the strait,” Foreign Minister Wang Yi told Iran’s Abbas Araghchi, according to an official Chinese statement. “China hopes that the parties concerned will respond to the strong appeal of the international community as soon as possible.”

China’s urgency to resolve the highly disrupted Hormuz chokepoint comes just over a week before President Trump flies to Beijing to meet with President Xi Jinping. The big question is whether China will cooperate with the U.S. to end the conflict and reopen the Strait, as much of the tanker flow through this critical waterway is destined for Asia, and the disruption has led to fuel shortages and soaring prices of crude oil and related products in the region.

“China likes to present itself as a great stabilizing force in the world, but imagine if they had a genuine diplomatic achievement, such as brokering the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, as proof of that,” Richard McGregor, senior fellow at the Lowy Institute, told Bloomberg. He noted that some in Beijing would advocate for using the moment to “squeeze some concessions out of the US” on issues such as Taiwan. The first Chinese tanker attacked in the U.S.-Iran conflict, as well as the upcoming Trump-Xi summit, might be the catalysts for the international community to pressure Iran into a peace deal with the U.S. Meanwhile, a French aircraft carrier is transiting through the southern part of the Suez Canal and into the Red Sea, preparing to restore Hormuz tanker flows.

More Regional Developments

via Newsquawk

• Al Arabiya reported that “the coming hours will witness a breakthrough for the situation of the ships stuck in the strait”, spurring pressure in the crude complex.
• Iran is expected to provide its reply to the US proposal for ending the war to mediators on Thursday, according to CNN, citing a regional source.
• US President Trump could turn to military action without an agreement with Iran ahead of the China trip, according to Axios, citing US officials.
• Iran is expected to provide its reply to mediators on Thursday, CNN reported citing a regional source.
• “Arabic sources: Reaching understandings regarding easing the siege in exchange for the gradual opening of the Strait of Hormuz “, Al Arabiya reported; “The coming hours will witness a breakthrough for the situation of the ships stuck in the strait”.
• Pakistani Foreign Ministry spokesperson said, “We do not talk about war and instead talk about dialogue and diplomacy. However, if any aggression similar to what we saw last year, we will respond; Pakistan will respond just as it did”, Mallick posted.
• Pakistani Foreign Ministry Spokesperson said “We have not yet received a response from Iran regarding the US amendments”, Al Jazeera reported.
• “Pakistani source to Al Arabiya said Iran may hand over its response to the US proposal to the Pakistani mediator today”, Al Arabiya.
• “No arrangements for any direct meetings between the Iranians and the Americans so far.”.
• “Contacts with the Iranians are ongoing and there are no obstacles hindering continued”.
• “Discussions are ongoing regarding the status of the Strait of Hormuz, and reaching understandings is still possible”.
• Pakistani Foreign Ministry said “We expect an urgent agreement between Iran and the United States”, Al Araby reported.
• “Israel was informed that Iran has agreed to transfer its stockpile of 60% enriched uranium to a third country that remains unknown”, Sky News Arabia reported citing Israeli Channel 12.
• Pakistani Foreign Ministry spokesperson, on US-Iran agreement, said “we would expect an agreement sooner rather than later”, Pakistani journalist Mallick posted.
• “We will welcome any settlement wherever that takes place, if it takes place in Islamabad, it would be an honour and privilege.”.
• The proposed agreement between the US and Iran may limit the IDF’s action in Lebanon, Israeli press reported citing an Israeli official.
• US President Trump, on Iran, said it will all work out very quickly.
• IDF said it has intercepted suspicious aerial target launched from Lebanon towards Israel following sirens that sounded in Manara, Margaliot and Kiryat Shmona.
• Lebanon’s PM Salam said it is not seeking normalisation with Israel and it is too early to discuss any possible meeting with Israeli PM Netanyahu.
• Iran has issued a message to commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, saying Iran’s port is fully prepared to provide general maritime services and support to the vessels, IRNA reported.
• US President Trump could turn to military action without an Iran agreement ahead of the China trip, Axios reported citing US officials.
• US President Trump’s reversal on his plan to help ships go through the Strait of Hormuz came after Saudi Arabia suspended the US’s ability to use its bases and airspace to carry out Project Freedom, NBC reported citing US officials.
• IRGC Navy Political Affairs Official said we will impose our control over the Strait of Hormuz, and any attack will be met with a plan beyond the enemy’s calculations, Al Jazeera reported.