At the end of June, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in an unusual move declared the start of a 40-day intensified pressure campaign against Russia, designed to force Moscow to the negotiating table and agree on terms favorable to Ukraine to end the war.

This was an effort seize on the momentum of repeat drone hits on Russian refinery and energy infrastructure – a reality Russia has suffered over many months, leading to an ongoing fuel crisis spanning dozens of cities and regions, and especially Crimea, which earlier in the summer had to temporarily halt fuel sales to common citizens for a time.

In mid-June, Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov proclaimed  “Hell is beginning,” for Russia and its military. “Logistics are being cut off. Crimea is being isolated,” he said at the time. From there, drone attacks across the Moscow region greatly intensified.

But Russia in turn responded with its own major campaign. In response to major nightly long-range Ukrainian drone attacks deep into its territory, Russia sent more and more ballistic missiles on Kiev – and even the far West areas of Ukraine.

On Friday Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has essentially declared Zelensky’s 40-day campaign to be defeated and moot. He described in a fresh media interview that not only will Russian forces implement a tougher response against Ukraine, but will go after the sources of Western support. He specifically raised the issue of the United States and its role.

“We have submitted a series of questions to the State Department requesting comment, including on the matter of intelligence data and the fact that the US is far more deeply involved in organizing and executing strikes deep within Russian territory against civilian targets. We await a response,” Lavrov told state television, as quoted in Reuters.

“Russia will intensify its military campaign in Ukraine and seek to destroy every element used by the West to sustain Kiev’s war effort,” the top diplomat said.

The Foreign Ministry has of late accused Ukraine of “brazen acts of ​terrorism” against shipping in the Black Sea, amid tit-for-tat ongoing attacks which have disrupted energy and grain shipping.

“We will not sink to their level. Instead, we will adopt much harsher methods to destroy everything that enables the West to fuel Kiev’s war machine. We are already doing this, and they are already moaning,” Lavrov asserted.

On the question of initiatives toward peace which Washington once prioritized (but now no longer seems to), Lavrov quoted Putin as saying while alluding back to the Alaska summit:

“Donald, you sent ​us proposals, and I’ve given them some thought. There are matters that require compromise. But I ‌accept ⁠your proposals in the form you sent them to me.”

As for Lavrov’s questions on Washington’s covert targeting support to Ukraine, the Trump administration is unlikely to give a direct response or acknowledgement to the query. 

President Trump at this start of his term vowed repeatedly to find a swift end to the war and a lasting peace, but this has remained elusive, and instead it appears he has kept up US intelligence and weapons support to Kiev – something that many MAGA supporters wanted to see a halt to.

Luigi Mangione, the 28-year-old accused of assassinating UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson, pleaded guilty in Manhattan federal court on Friday to the federal charges against him – admitting that he went to New York with the intent to kill Thompson.

The plea came during an 11 a.m. hearing before U.S. District Judge Margaret Garnett, added to the calendar at the last minute this week at the joint request of prosecutors and Mangione’s defense team.

“I shot Brian Thompson,” he told Garnett.

Members of Brian Thompson’s family were present in the courtroom. Outside, a crowd of Mangione supporters gathered – a fixture of his court appearances since his arrest.

The charges

Mangione was charged with two federal counts: interstate stalking resulting in death, and stalking through the use of interstate facilities resulting in death. Each carries a maximum sentence of life in prison.

Judge Garnett dismissed a federal murder charge in January 2026 that would have carried a potential death penalty, removing capital exposure from the federal case.

A senior Justice Department official told Fox News on Thursday that “there is no deal” – meaning Mangione would be pleading guilty without a negotiated sentencing guarantee.

The plea is the latest milestone in a case that has gripped the country since December 4, 2024.

Thompson, 50, a father of two, was gunned down on a Midtown Manhattan sidewalk outside the Hilton, hours before UnitedHealth Group was set to host its annual investor conference at the hotel. After a five-day, multistate manhunt, authorities apprehended Mangione at a McDonald’s in Altoona, Pennsylvania.

Investigators recovered a manifesto criticizing the American health insurance industry – a discovery that split public reaction sharply. While many condemned the killing as a cold-blooded assassination, others treated Mangione as a dark symbol of mounting public frustration with the U.S. healthcare system.

A looming state battle

Friday’s federal plea does not close the book. Mangione still faces a parallel state prosecution in New York for second-degree murder and weapons offenses, with trial scheduled to begin next month. Earlier terrorism-related counts in the state case have been dismissed.

The federal plea is expected to trigger an immediate clash over the state trial. Mangione’s defense team is expected to argue the state case should be dismissed on double jeopardy grounds, contending he cannot be prosecuted twice for the same conduct.

“One-plus-one is two. Double jeopardy, by any common-sense definition,” he shouted during a February court appearance.

The Manhattan District Attorney’s Office has signaled strong opposition, arguing the federal and state charges address distinct legal harms. Legal experts have called the question genuinely open. “It is incredibly complicated,” defense attorney Paul Shechtman told the New York Times earlier this month about New York’s double jeopardy statute.

Retired NYPD inspector Paul Mauro suggested a plea without a deal could still serve Mangione: “He gets to serve his time in federal prison, where conditions are better, and he is hoping that the New York state double jeopardy law will knock out the state case.”

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Newsmax Thursday night that the Trump administration will announce unprecedented economic measures against Iran next week, signaling that a sharp escalation in economic warfare is just ahead as negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz remain stalled. The warning comes as Tehran-linked Houthi rebel forces resume attacks on Saudi Aramco energy infrastructure, raising concerns that the conflict is spreading geographically and pushing Brent crude futures higher.

Bessent told Rob Schmitt of Newsmax:

And, you know, at the president’s orders, we have raised the level even again, and watch this space for more announcements coming next week because we are going to apply measures like have never been seen in the history of economic isolation on a country. And I think the reason we are succeeding is because it is a one-two punch.

People say, well, you know, Cuba lasted a long time. Venezuela lasted a long time. Venezuela immediately crumbled when we put the blockade on. So, it will be a combination of economic isolation like the world has never seen before and the continued blockade in the Strait of Hormuz that will keep anything from going in or out of the Iranian ports.

Watch Bessent

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced upcoming unprecedented economic measures against Iran amid ongoing blockades of its ports pic.twitter.com/OV3etgd2k0

— Chay Bowes (@BowesChay) August 14, 2026

By the midpoint of this week, we explained that, with US-Iran talks stalled, President Trump was more than likely to “opt for economic siege warfare, as the US military campaign is on hold.”

Trump recently told Axios that he is “low-keying it” with Iran. “We are just watching Iran with its huge inflation and the fact they have no money,” he said.

Washington has imposed roughly 2,200 sanctions-related designations on Tehran since 2018, according to Jeremy Paner, a partner at Hughes Hubbard & Reed who tracks Iran’s energy industry. The scale of the existing sanctions architecture underscores the challenge facing the Trump administration as it seeks to exert additional leverage on Tehran.

“If 47 years of sanctions haven’t broken Tehran’s will, more of the same is unlikely to produce any changes,” according to a Bloomberg Economics report led by Jennifer Welch. She noted that the most likely scenario is that Trump stays on the same path as before, maintaining sanctions and the blockade.

The Trump administration’s accelerated pivot toward economic warfare, rather than renewed strikes on Iran’s missile and drone capabilities along the Hormuz chokepoint or an operation against Kharg Island, likely reflects growing concern over the “perfect storm” developing in refined-products markets. With the global diesel crisis intensifying and crack spreads approaching $100 level, further strikes risk triggering a severe supply shock to the fuel that powers global industries. It would also be a political disaster if gasoline and diesel prices at US pumps soared even higher with just 81 days left until the midterm elections (read diesel crisis report). 

Nigel Farage has romped to victory in the Clacton by-election with 63.3% of the vote, seeing off 33 rivals including Count Binface, who won a quarter of the votes cast, on the longest ballot paper in British electoral history.

The Reform UK leader secured victory with 22,239 votes, which was 63.3% of the total vote and an increase on the 21,225 votes he secured when he was elected to the Essex seat at the 2024 General Election.

Count Binface, a comedian standing as a 5,900-year-old space warrior whose key policy was to freeze the price of ice cream in Clacton at 99p, was second with 9,455 votes, 26.9% of the total vote.

Mr Farage had triggered the poll and cast it as a ‘people vs the Establishment’ contest amid mounting questions over a £5 million donation from cryptocurrency tycoon Christopher Harborne.

However, a parliamentary inquiry into Mr Harborne’s donation has yet to conclude, and Mr Farage could still face another by-election within months if he is found to have broken House of Commons rules. He is expected to be interviewed by a standards watchdog within weeks of MPs returning to Westminster after their summer break.

The Reform leader, 62, declared himself the winner of the Clacton by-election in the early hours of Friday morning while ballot papers were still being counted. He then took the unprecedented step of skipping the formal result declaration, with his party claiming police had advised him to stay away due to a ‘credible threat’.

But, as Mark Angelides reports for LibertyNation.com, none of the big parties fielding a contender, what remains is who wins the narrative war.

Farage Stands Down to Step Up

The election was triggered by Farage resigning his seat last month. He did so voluntarily because of mounting stories over his financial situation, including donations and gifts he had received before running for Parliament. His argument was that it should be the voters of Clacton who decide his political fate rather than a scrutiny committee.

To be abundantly clear, Mr. Farage receiving a gift of £5 million is not illegal. Not declaring it is a breach of protocol because it occurred within 12 months of him running for office. With his return to the House of Commons, the internal investigation will continue. But what is the likely outcome? And what punishment – if any – is likely to befall the veteran campaigner?

If he is found to have broken the rules, the committee could suspend him from the House for a short period. In such a case, there is a possibility of a recall petition that would trigger a fresh by-election – which poses a conundrum. The purpose of such a contest would be to determine whether his Clacton constituency still had faith in him to be its Member of Parliament. This question was put to bed yesterday with Farage increasing his vote count and share compared with the 2024 general election.

And crucially, Nigel will have spent the last six weeks in his constituency gathering data. If he ends up having to fight yet another election, he will have up-to-date major information which other parties do not have access to. When it comes to campaigning, the data advantage cannot be underestimated.

But, as ever, the knives are out for Nigel Farage.

Establishment Closes Ranks

Former Prime Minister Keir Starmer, before his ousting, described Farage’s Reform Party as a threat to the nation. This is echoed across the myriad parties that make up British Parliament. In other recent by-elections, we have seen parties run what can best be described as paper candidates to unite around any party other than Reform.

The dominant narrative from the more established party leaders is that although they refused to stand a candidate in this “stunt” election triggered by Farage, they would certainly stand one in the potential next contest after the results of the scrutiny committee are released. But it is more than reasonable to argue that the other parties did engage in yesterday’s election. Conservative Party leader Kemi Badenoch posted on social media that voters should support “the Bin,” a reference to a parody candidate, “Count Binface,” who wears a trashcan on his head and a shiny “spacesuit.” By tacitly backing any competitor – even a joke contender – the party essentially threw its hat in the ring. Notably, Count Binface came second with almost 27%.

A Political Parallel

The current mantra is that Nigel Farage has triggered an unnecessary election that has cost taxpayers roughly £250,000 and was an affront to voters. And yet the same voices uttered no such displeasure when now-PM Andy Burnham was the beneficiary of a palace coup through a similar mechanism earlier this year.

With around 24,000 votes from one of the Labour Party’s safest seats, Mr. Burnham was drafted into Parliament and installed as leader and PM without a general election or even a vote by the party members. For those who do not support Labour, there is the mild stench of hypocrisy.

Both politicians foisted a by-election on the British public to better secure their positions. One did so to retain his position, the other to gain advancement.

Where is Reform Now?

Mr. Farage’s Reform Party has dominated polling for the last 18 months. While Mr. Burnham’s Labour Party has received a polling bounce of around 6% – quite a typical bump when a leader is changed mid-Parliament – almost every survey has suggested Reform would be the largest party at the next general election.

Farage is a threat to the Westminster establishment that has not been seen in at least 100 years. Assuming he navigates the committee’s results and commits no major faux pas in the next three years, he may well be Prime Minister. And more so, he may be the harbinger of doom for the Conservative Party and relegate Labour to a desultory second-place finish.

It seems no wonder that the Westminster establishment wants to end his career as early as possible.

Based on BofA’s almost omniscient analysts, traders should expect a big disappointment this morning from US retail sales as the bank’s data showed a huge drop in online retail (card not present) in July…

…because Prime Day and related promotions were pulled forward from July to June this year. Many other retail categories also saw m/m declines, including clothing, gas (due to lower prices) and furniture. Other factors driving the weakness in July likely included the heat wave around July 4 weekend and a modest post-World-Cup hangover effect.

And once again, BofA was right… US Retail Sales plunged 0.6% MoM in July (+0.1% MoM exp) – the biggest MoM drop since May 2025. This drop slowed the annual rise in retail sales to +5.0% YoY (still solid)…

Interestingly, unadjusted retail sales rose in July…

Both headline and core sales growth slowed YoY…

Most importantly, the ‘Control Group’ – which plugs directly into GDP calculation – dropped 0.4% MoM (dramatically worse than the +0.3% MoM rise expected).

Additionally, UBS noted that a key risk to the July data was fading support from larger tax refunds compliments of the OBBBA and that could be part of the disappointment today.

Under the hood, it was very mixed. A drop in gasoline station spending makes sense as gas prices dropped (before re-accelerating in August)…

But, the decline in online (non-store) retailer sales stands out…

This was the second biggest MoM drop Nonstore Retailers sales since COVID (likely due to the calendar shift form Prime Day as mentioned above)…

Real retail sales – admittedly roughly adjusted for CPI – remains positive, but slowed significantly in July…

Finally, the The latest BofA data provides additional evidence that K-shaped dynamics are waning. In each of the four weeks ending Aug 1, y/y total BAC card spending growth was stronger among lower- than higher-income HHs.

And this isn’t just due to higher gas prices. Even in discretionary categories, the “K” has turned into a “C” over the last couple of months: lower-income spending looks solid, while higher-income spending has cooled off modestly.

Ukraine has quietly floated a deal through a third-party mediator to halt reciprocal strikes on civilian vessels in the Black Sea, Reuters reports, in what appears to be a calculated bid to unfreeze a critical global commodity corridor and to relieve pressure on Ukraine’s battered wartime economy.

The maritime artery remains a vital economic lifeline for both nations, channeling massive volumes of grain and agricultural supplies to world markets – especially the Middle East and Africa – but there’s now been weekly and almost daily tit-for-tat attacks. 

With roughly 90% of Ukrainian grain and sunflower shipments departing from the primary port cluster of Odesa, Chornomorsk, and Pivdenne, the fallout on Ukraine’s agricultural sector has been severe.

Kyiv Post cites that as a result grain exports have fallen 76% year-on-year so far in August. But the publication notes that the pressure is longer one-sided, as “on Wednesday, Ukraine launched a major coordinated strike on Novorossiysk, Russia’s key Black Sea naval and grain-export hub, forcing all three grain terminals to suspend operations and hitting naval infrastructure.”

It didn’t take long on Friday for the Kremlin to dismiss the idea of a Black Sea ceasefire, blaming Ukrainian acts of “terrorism” against maritime traffic. ​Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova accused charged Kiev with “brazen acts of ​terrorism” against shipping.

“We view these attacks (by Ukraine) as a deliberate policy aimed at destabilizing ​civilian shipping in the Black Sea region to further escalate tensions and ​prolong the conflict, all with the blatant acquiescence of regional neighbours,” Zakharova said.

“At the same time, we see no signs of improvement in the situation and, consequently, ​no grounds for half-measures that merely grant the Kyiv regime a temporary ​breathing space,” she added.

Part of this grinding war of attrition if for each side to impose as much economic pain as possible, and Ukraine will be more easily squeezed by blocking its ability to export and import – given its key ports are all concentrated along its Black Sea coast.

Russian forces had hit more than 80 vessels believed involved in supplying the Ukrainian military in the month of July alone, state TASS wrote recently based on official defense ministry data.

Moscow seeks to sever military supply routes and disrupt arms shipments bound for Ukraine, but this has also obviously resulted in damaged and sunken tankers, auxiliary vessels, and even deaths of civilian bystanders among international shipping crew. It has accused Ukraine of seeking to hide military shipments under the guise of civilian cargo transit.

But comes amid a Turkish request to State to transfer ATACMS and cluster munitions to Ukraine. Turkey’s preferred side in the Black Sea conflict isn’t a well-kept secret. https://t.co/iCuJaSkq2n

— Michael Weiss (@michaeldweiss) August 14, 2026

Russia’s reaction is somewhat expected, given it has long voiced that it has no interest in short-term ceasefires which could only allow Ukraine forces to rearm and regroup; instead, it will only settle for a lasting and permanent political solution at end to the conflict.

Of course, in Moscow’s view this means official recognition of the seized eastern territories and Crimea as Russian sovereign land. President Putin himself has made clear that he will not stop the ‘special military operation’ until at least this is fully accomplished.

Futures are fractionally higher, as they have been much of this supercharged week which pushed stocks to new all tim ehighs, amid quiet news flow this morning. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are up 0.1% after the index closed at a record on Thursday. Nasdaq 100 futures advanced 0.2%, with the tech benchmark set for a 1.2% gain in the week. Momentum darling Sandisk rallied almost 6% in premarket trading after surging double digits yesterday and is now up 60% from its lows less than two weeks ago;  Mag 7 stocks mostly unchanged with MSFT and META showing some modest declines as investors continued to focus on OpenAI’s plans for a Wall Street debut. Bond yields are 1-2bp higher, led by 30y. A Reuters article reported that BOJ is eyeing September rate hike and faster pace of tightening, affirming the recent hawkish bias: OIS now sees 81% probability of a September hike (vs. ~65% last Friday). Commodities are modestly higher: oil moved 0.6% higher; gold added 0.1% this morning. US economic data calendar include July retail sales (8:30am), August preliminary University of Michigan sentiment and June business inventories (10am). No Fed speakers scheduled for the session

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mixed (Tesla +0.5%, Microsoft -0.3%, Nvidia +0.2%, Alphabet 0.0%, Apple 0.0%, Amazon -0.1%, Meta -0.1%)

• Dronemakers including AeroVironment (AVAV) are higher after the Trump administration said it is applying a 100% tariff on imports of unmanned aircraft systems and their components. AeroVironment shares are up 3%.
• Aehr Test Systems (AEHR) rises 8% after Jefferies started coverage on the semiconductor manufacturing company with a buy rating, citing the firm’s growth profile.
• Applied Materials (AMAT) falls 5% after the semiconductor capital equipment company’s estimate-topping forecast met with tepid investor reaction following the stock’s frenetic rally this year.
• ARS Pharmaceuticals (SPRY) sinks 14% after the company pushed back the timeline for the biotech to reach cash-flow breakeven to the end of 2027. The firm’s management previously expected to reach that mark by the middle of 2027.
• Capricor (CAPR) surges 100% after the drug developer said it plans to amend its biologics license application for its drug to treat a rare muscle disease and that the FDA has indicated it is willing to review this amendment. The news spurred an upgrade at Cantor.
• Gemini Space Station (GEMI) falls 6% after the crypto exchange founded by the Winklevoss twins reported a wider-than-expected adjusted Ebitda loss for the second quarter amid crypto trading declines.
• Globant (GLOB) falls 11% after the IT-services company cut its full-year forecast. It also gave a third-quarter forecast that was weaker than the analyst consensus estimate.
• Nubank (NU) gains 10% after the Brazilian fintech reported second-quarter net income that beat the average analyst estimate and saw its 15 to 90-day non-performing loan ratio improve.
• Reddit (RDDT) jumps 10% as the social media company is set to join the S&P 500 prior to the opening of trading on Aug. 18.
• Sandisk (SNDK) rises 6%, set to extend Thursday’s 14% rally, as JPMorgan assigns an overweight rating following the firm’s investor day.
• York Space (YSS) is down 17% after the space and defense company cut the revenue outlook for the full year.

Tech shares again lifted the S&P 500 to fresh highs this month as investors piled into beaten-down semiconductor and other AI-related stocks, with second-quarter earnings exceeding already lofty expectations. After a benign consumer inflation print and producer price data this week, US retail sales numbers on Friday could provide more clues on the direction of Fed policy ahead of next month’s meeting, although according to real-time BofA card spending data, expect a big miss when the data is released at 8:30am.

And speaking of Bank of America, its CIO Michael Hartnett said the “door wide open for bulls to rip risk higher.” He cites soaring earnings, a $10 trillion wealth surge in 2026 and over $1 trillion of AI capex expected in 2027. But most notably he says AI is now so big it is the market, and policymakers simply can not allow stocks to fall as it will spark an economic crash. 

Elsewhere, the chip bubble is baaaaack: South Korea’s Kospi Index – a bellwether for retail and momentum euhoria in chip names – added over 2% Friday, bringing its weekly gain to 11% and snapping a seven-week losing streak. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix both advanced more than 15% over the past five days.

“A huge amount of hyperscaler money is flowing into hardware,” said Hitoshi Asaoka, chief strategist at Asset Management One. “That is translating into extremely strong sales and profit growth for hardware companies. Investors are returning to the idea of, ‘let’s look at the earnings themselves again.’”

Meanwhile, the threat of lofty energy prices reigniting inflation remains. Brent crude jumped almost 2% on Friday, before reversing the move to trade around $87 a barrel. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent promised unprecedented “economic isolation” for Iran and a “one-two punch” that includes the continued blockade of the country’s ports. 

European shares hover near record highs with continued support from the artificial intelligence trade and after the region’s equity funds notched their largest inflows in six months. The Stoxx 600 is little changed as software and IT stocks rally, boosted by a report that Silver Lake is in talks to acquire Workday. HelloFresh falls to a record low after a downgrade at Barclays. Here are the biggest movers:

• European software and IT stocks post broad-based gains on Friday, with sentiment boosted by a Reuters report that Silver Lake is in talks to acquire Workday. SAP, Dassault Systemes and Nemetschek are among gainers.
• Maersk shares gain as much as 6.5% after an upgrade to hold from sell. The shipping company appears to have scope for a further guidance upgrade, and “ample room” for share buybacks over 2027-28.
• Aviva shares rise slightly, briefly reaching their highest level since May 2018, after the insurer’s first-half operating profit exceeded estimates. Analysts note the beat was supported by reserve releases, tempering the market reaction.
• Autostore shares extend a post-earnings rally after the stock was raised to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank, which cites multiple consecutive quarters of improving momentum, stronger customer engagement and a growing backlog at the warehouse automation firm.
• DFDS shares rise as much as 21%, the steepest gain since 2008, after the shipping and logistics firm raised its revenue growth outlook for the year.
• Talanx shares rise as much as 5.9%, the most in over a year, after the insurer’s second-quarter net income came in comfortably ahead of estimates and supported a lift to its guidance for the full year.
• Napatech shares rally as much as 25%, the most in over three months, after the Danish company that provides Programmable Network Interface Cards used in data centers said it has secured a follow-on production order related to a major AI-infrastructure design win secured in 2025.
• Cohort shares gain as much as 7.4%, the most since early July, after the electronic and surveillance technology solutions company announces that its German unit ELAC was awarded a contract to supply integrated sonar systems for the Polish Orka submarine program in collaboration with Saab.
• VZ Holding shares jump as much as 10% after the provider of investment advisory services beat expectations in the first half.
• HelloFresh shares fall to a record low as Barclays downgrades to underweight and assigns a Street-low price target, saying questions remain about the meal kit provider’s top line.
• EnergieKontor shares plummet as much as 18% and hit their lowest level since 2020 after the wind-energy producercut its earnings goal after markets closed yesterday, just hours after reaffirming its guidance.
• GB Group shares fall as much as 27%, their steepest drop since 2009, after the identity verification and fraud prevention company lowered its full-year revenue guidance.

Asian stocks rose, poised for their best week in two months, as the AI tech rally regains momentum on fading concerns over Federal Reserve rate hikes. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced as much as 0.7% Friday, extending its weekly gain to about 3%. South Korea’s tech-heavy Kospi gained for a fifth-straight session, its longest streak since mid-June, while Japanese equities also advanced. Indonesian stocks gained after an address to the nation by President Prabowo Subianto before its budget. After last month’s volatile selloff, the AI trade is getting back on track following the latest corporate results. Stocks in South Korea and Taiwan are set for their biggest weekly foreign inflow in months, a sign that global investors are returning after a historic selloff.  “Once traders start searching for yield again, they tend to gravitate back toward that AI and tech picture,” Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, told Bloomberg TV. “I think that the US earnings season went some way into dispelling some of the fears that were building up about valuations and sustainability of operating margins.” Elsewhere, Hang Seng had its biggest weekly decline in seven weeks. Vietnam fell most in Asia on financial concerns. 

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index falls 0.2% and is on course for its largest decline since last week’s payrolls miss. The Norwegian krone is leading gains against the greenback, rising 0.5%, also helped by higher oil prices. The kiwi is also at top of the leaderboard after underperforming on Thursday. USD/JPY edges down toward 159. European stocks are little changed while futures are pointing to a fairly flat open on Wall Street.

In rates, long-end Treasuries hold losses in early US session, with yields higher by around 1-2bp and extending this week’s curve-steepening move amid similar price action in European bond markets. The US sold 30-year bonds at the highest yield in a quarter century on Thursday, underscoring the premium investors are demanding to finance the nation’s deficits. US 10-year yield near 4.65% is less than 1bp higher on the day with bunds and gilts in the sector lagging by 2.5bp and 2bp; WTI crude futures are up about 0.5%, off session highs. With front-end and belly yields edging lower, US 2s10s spread widens nearly 2bp to 52bp, widest since May 21 and near 200-DMA which has broadly held since March; 5s30s spread is more than 2bp wider near 92bp, last seen May 14. UK and German 10-year borrowing costs rise 3 bps each. IG credit new-issue slate empty so far. Three companies sold a combined $5.85 billion on Thursday, paying about 11bp in new issue concessions on deals that were 2.6 times oversubscribed. Start of next week has the potential to be relatively active.

In commodities, WTI crude oil futures advance as talks around reopening the Strait of Hormuz continue to show limited progress. Brent crude futures rise 0.7% to around $87.60 a barrel and that’s hampered bonds.

US economic data calendar include July retail sales (8:30am), August preliminary University of Michigan sentiment and June business inventories (10am). No Fed speakers scheduled for the session

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

• The United States on Thursday said that it could maintain a naval blockade of Iran indefinitely and would ratchet up economic pressure on Tehran as ceasefire talks have floundered, global oil supply is dropping and regional tensions are rising. RTRS
• The US is pressing NATO allies to demonstrate support for Donald Trump’s policies, as it reviews potential troop cuts in Europe. BBG
• Ukraine has sent Russia an offer suggesting they both halt attacks ‌on civilian targets in the Black Sea, a source said, after mounting strikes on vessels and ports there raised fears over global food supplies. RTRS
• China’s auto factories are building so many cars for export that the global shipping industry can’t keep up. Specialized car carriers, essentially floating parking garages, are booked out years ahead to export cars from Chinese factories. Rates to charter ships are up 65% this year on the surging demand to move vehicles out of China. WSJ
• Tariffs latest: The US is imposing a 100% duty on some imported drones and their components, a move that may significantly affect China. Australia said the US agreed to “consider full exemption or, at the very least, no increase” to the tariffs. BBG
• The BoJ is set to raise interest rates as soon as ‌September and is considering hiking more aggressively thereafter from the current pace of roughly twice a year, said three sources familiar with its thinking. RTRS
• Japan’s efforts to prop up the yen are creating fresh opportunities as investors return to carry trades — borrowing the low-yielding currency to buy higher-returning assets. BBG
• Leading US AI labs such as OpenAI and Anthropic are releasing cheaper models as they fight to retain cost-conscious customers who are switching to cut-price alternatives from Chinese rivals. The price war comes as rising AI bills push companies to curb usage and seek cheaper models, helping Chinese developers including Moonshot and DeepSeek make inroads with users from Silicon Valley to Europe. FT
• OpenAI is on track to generate annualized revenue of more than $40 billion based on its current performance, people familiar said. The ChatGPT maker’s revenue has accelerated in recent months. BBG
• Fitch affirmed the US at AA+, outlook stable, while it stated that the US rating is supported by a large economy, high per capita income, dynamic business environment and exceptional financing flexibility. However, it also commented that labour demand has weakened and job creation has dropped significantly in 2026, while it expects inflation to move towards the target by year-end 2028.
• US White House deputy national security adviser Andy Baker will leave the administration in coming weeks: Axios

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mixed as the region only partially sustained the positive handover from Wall Street, where the S&P 500 hit a fresh record high, and the Nasdaq outperformed on tech strength, as softer PPI data further added to the case for the Fed to refrain from hiking rates in September. Nonetheless, the positive momentum began to wane overnight with little fresh major catalysts and after US President Trump signed a proclamation imposing tariffs on drones and components. ASX 200 was pressured as the strength in tech was overshadowed by losses in the heavy industries, including miners, materials, resources and industrials, while participants also digested earnings releases. Nikkei 225 gained and briefly reclaimed the 69,000 level before paring some of the advances, while participants continue to second-guess whether the BoJ will speed up the pace of rate increases. KOSPI outperformed on tech momentum, but is off earlier highs with resistance at the 7,000 level. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were subdued amid a slew of earnings releases including from SMIC and JD.com, with the latter pressured despite beating on the top and bottom lines, while sentiment was also not helped by trade-related frictions with the US to impose tariffs of up to 100% on drones, which seems to be aimed at China and DJI, which holds around an 80% share of the global drone market.

Top Asian News

• PBoC keeps 7-day reverse repo operation volume at zero, while it injects CNY 349bln via overnight reverse repos.
• Taiwan raises 2026 GDP forecast to +11.05% (prev. +9.64%).
• Hong Kong revises 2026 GDP forecast to 3.5-4.5% (prev. 2.5-3.5%).

European bourses are broadly softer across the board, outside of the DAX 40 given the gains in SAP (see more below). Over in Asia, memory chip names (Kioxia +3.8%, SK Hynix +3.3%) climbed in Asia-Pac trade after Sandisk gave a positive outlook at its investor day. Sandisk said it expects revenue growth in the mid-to-high teens between 2028-30 and also plans to return 100% of excess cash to shareholders. Sectors are mixed. Tech is the sector outperformer, followed by Media and Insurance. To the downside is Utilities, while Basic Resources and Health Care also underperform.

Top European News

• Reform UK leader Farage won the Clacton by-election with 22,293 votes.

FX

• DXY gradually weakened throughout the morning to a 99.70 base, despite higher energy prices (Brent +1.5%), which are typically constructive for the USD. Weakness in the Buck likely comes as participants digest the July series of data, which contained dovish components. CPI/PPI were in-line and soft, respectively, while the payrolls figure will likely give food for Fed doves. Today, USD is set to digest US Retail Sales and the UoM survey.
• USD/JPY -0.2% and continues choppy action, this time after another BoJ source said the Bank was set to raise interest rates as soon as September; this saw the pair slip 17 pips to a 159.15 base, a level which is being tested at the time of writing. Currently, markets assign a c. 80% probability of such action in September. More pertinently, Bloomberg sources on Thursday said the Takaichi government is said to support faster BoJ rate hikes. The piece also said the bank could raise rates in either September or October; the timing of the latest source potentially the reason why this JPY strength has stuck.
• Kiwi is rebounding vs the USD after losses following Thursday’s soft inflation expectations survey; action which has entirely faded with the pair ~0.2% higher than pre-data. NZD/USD +0.4%, once again above all significant DMAs.
• NOK is the G10 outperformer, strength which is likely a function of oil prices despite the Norges Bank hold on Thursday raising questions over the removal of the tightening bias from the statement in September. Brent Oct’26 is firmer by 1.5%, after rising throughout the EU morning without a clear catalyst. NOK/SEK sees continues support above 1.00, while USD/NOK broke out of recent ranges

Fixed Income

• USTs continue to fall further from Thursday’s peak of 109-03+, after failing to hold above the current range highs of 109-01. The 30-year auction was soft, showing a 0.4bp tail, below-average bid-to-cover and above-average dealer allocation, all pointing to weaker demand despite the considerably higher outright yield on offer. Following the auction, analysts at TD Securities said this is problematic for the Treasury as it must fund the government at more expensive levels. Looking ahead, US Retail sales is on the docket.
• Gilts opened lower and trades at the lower end of its 86.90-87.26 range, given the steady climb in energy prices. On the political front, Reform leader Farage won the Clacton by-election as expected. Following the count, More in Common’s Tryl told Politico that despite that impressive raw vote total by Farage, the vote share was at the lower end of expectations, which shows that his opponents are highly motivated to turn out. Focus now turns to the outcome of the Parliamentary investigation into Farage over recent donations.
• Bunds continue to trade counter to energy prices, currently trading at the bottom end of its 124.72-125.01 range. A light docket ahead in Europe, given the summer period.
• Australia sells AUD 1bln November 2032 bonds, b/c 3.75, avg. yield 4.6868%.

Commodities

• Crude futures have been grinding higher throughout the European morning despite the lack of a clear driver. Overnight, US Treasury Secretary Bessent said they will implement unprecedented measures on Iran and are conducting a maximum pressure campaign against Iran. Meanwhile, this morning, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Baghaei said a possible agreement with Oman on a new shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz will not, by itself, mean the strategic waterway will reopen. Furthermore, UKMTO says a tanker was struck by a drone while transiting outbound through the Strait of Hormuz, possibly following comments by ADNOC stating that two of its vessels attacked while transiting the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday.
• There have also been a couple of headlines regarding Russia/Ukraine/NATO: NATO HQ confirmed allied jets were scrambled after a drone entered Latvian airspace. Russia’s Foreign Minister Lavrov said an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine is not possible.
• WTI Sept and Brent Oct futures have been edging higher since European players entered the market. Brent trades towards the top end of a USD 86.20-88.60/bbl range at the time of writing whilst WTI sits towards the upper end of a USD 80.71-82.99/bbl range. Dutch TTF is firmer by almost 2% intraday and north of EUR 61.50/MWh.
• Metals are flat/mixed amid a lack of drivers and in what is seemingly a summer lull. Spot gold resides towards the middle of a USD 4,322-4,363/oz range after dipping under yesterday’s 4,343/oz low. Spot silver ekes mild gains and resides towards the top end of a USD 63.51-64.73/oz range after briefly falling under yesterday’s USD 64.22/oz low. 3M LME copper remains above USD 14k/t in a USD 14,045.20- 14,125.28/t range.
• US VP Vance said goal one is to keep oil and gasoline affordable for the US.
• China’s State Planner said domestic gasoline and diesel retail price caps will be cut by CNY 230/T and CNY 220/T, respectively; effective on August 14.
• Ukrainian official said if a ceasefire is implemented in the Black Sea region, Ukraine could restore grain exports through its seaports within one month.

Trade/Tariffs

• US President Trump signed a proclamation imposing tariffs on drones and components, which imposes 100% tariffs on certain-sized drones and a 25% tariff on smaller-sized drones. 10% tariffs will be imposed on drones from the UK and 15% tariffs on drones from the EU, Japan, Liechtenstein, South Korea, Switzerland and Taiwan. Tariffs will take effect 21 days after signing, while for components of drones that are not particularly sensitive, the tariffs will take effect 180 days after signing.
• Australian PM Albanese said he spoke with US President Trump and reviewed advancements under the AUKUS defence agreement, while he added that the AUKUS initiative continues full steam ahead. Albanese said he raised the issue of tariffs with Trump and urged him to consider full exemption, while he added that Trump would consider Australia’s request.
• Brazil began analysing the reciprocity process on US tariffs, while it was notifying the US about the process and requesting that diplomatic consultations be held.

Central Banks

• Fed’s Goolsbee (2027 voter) said they have been getting a little bit better readings on inflation, which he hopes will continue and noted that a lot of inflation drivers were from tariffs, oil and things they hope to be one-time increases. Furthermore, he stated that if they can get some of that into the rearview mirror, they can get inflation heading back to 2%, and that the US economy is steady.
• The BoJ is reportedly set to raise interest rates as soon as September and also considering accelerating subsequent hikes, according to reports.
• RBA’s Harper will depart from the monetary policy board, and Melinda Cilento has been named as a part-time member of the RBA board.

Geopolitics: Iran

• US VP Vance said the US has a lot of tools at its disposal for Iran.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said they will implement unprecedented measures on Iran and are conducting a maximum pressure campaign against Iran, targeting its bank accounts and digital currencies worldwide, while the pressure campaign caused the collapse of the Iranian banking sector. Bessent added that measures against Iran will be a combination of economic isolation and blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, and he expects more announcements on Iran next week. Furthermore, he said they will take actions unprecedented in the history of economic isolation of a country and will prevent anything from entering or leaving Iranian ports.
• Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Baghaei said a possible agreement with Oman on a new shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz will not, by itself, mean the strategic waterway will reopen, Press TV reported.
• UAE’s ADNOC said two of its vessels attacked while transiting the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday. Following this, UKMTO said a tanker was struck by a drone while transiting outbound through the Strait of Hormuz.
• US CENTCOM commander and Saudi Crown Prince MBS discuss mutual defence cooperation and efforts to de-escalate regional tensions, according to Saudi State News Agency.
• US President Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner is to visit Israel next week for consultations on the situation in Gaza, according to Axios
• Airstrikes hit separatist militant group in Erbil, Iraq, according to Tehran Times.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Russia’s Foreign Minister Lavrov said an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine is not possible, IFX reported.
• Drones hit area around Russian Baltic seaport of Ust-Luga, according to the regional governor.
• Latvia issued an air threat alert in areas bordering Russia and Belarus, while NATO fighter jets shot down a drone over northeastern Latvia. It was also reported that Finland restricted aviation and maritime traffic in eastern Gulf of Finland.

Geopolitics: Other

• North Korea condemned US-South Korean military drills and said the military exercises are more provocative than last year, while it added that US-Japan-South Korea military cooperation is turning into a nuclear alliance. Furthermore, North Korea vowed to respond to a new level of threat with a new level of deterrent and will continue to expand nuclear deterrence, according to KCNA.
• Japanese Regional Coast Guard said four Chinese ships intruded into Japanese territorial waters, Kyodo reported.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30 am: United States Jul Retail Sales Advance MoM, est. 0.1%, prior 0.2%
• 8:30 am: United States Jul Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM, est. 0.2%, prior -0.2%
• 10:00 am: United States Aug P U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 55, prior 55.2

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Right. I’m about to go off on holiday to find somewhere cooler after what was the 5th hottest day ever in the UK yesterday. I say 5th hottest but that is recorded history.  Apparently the Early Eocene Epoch some 55 million years ago was the last time these sorts of temperatures were the norm in the UK. Admittedly the country was nearer the Mediterranean then! For the next couple of weeks you’ll mostly find me bathing in an Alpine lake or shouting at my children. Henry and Peter will be holding the fort while I’m gone. See you on the other side.
Before I disappear in search of snow and ice, markets have generally been enjoying the heat. Over the last 24 hours, investors have continued to dial back the chances of a Fed rate hike, sending the S&P 500 (+0.65%) to fresh highs. The biggest catalyst was a downside surprise in the US PPI inflation print, while lower oil prices gave the doves an extra tailwind, with Brent crude (-2.15%) finally snapping a six-day winning streak. As a result, pricing for a September Fed hike fell to just 35% by the close, down from above 50% on the morning of Wednesday’s CPI release, whilst the 10yr Treasury yield (-5.1bps) also moved sharply lower as markets embraced the more dovish outlook.

That PPI release set the tone for the day, as it cemented the view after Wednesday’s CPI that the Fed didn’t need to rush into rate hikes. The data showed monthly headline PPI unchanged in July (vs. +0.2% expected), which meant the year-on-year reading fell back to +4.7% (vs. +4.9% expected). So the release supported the view that the energy shock was fading, and the Fed wouldn’t need to react next month. As ever, there was also some focus on the categories that feed into PCE inflation, which is the Fed’s preferred measure. But those were generally mixed and offset each other, with strength in portfolio management (+6.5%) offset by weakness in other categories like airfares (-3.4%). In net terms, the PPI details added a one basis point to our US economists’ estimate for July core PCE inflation. 

The downside PPI surprise led to an immediate reaction in pricing for the next Fed meeting. For instance, the probability of a September hike had been at 40% right before the release, but was down to 35% by the close. Indeed, the last time a hike by September was considered that remote was back in June, before Warsh’s first press conference was unexpectedly hawkish. That said, there was a reluctance to go much lower on market pricing given we’ve still got the August jobs report and CPI report before the next FOMC meeting. And looking further out, futures are now pricing in a 92% chance of a hike by the December meeting, also the first time since June that this has been less than fully priced.

We did hear from a few Fed speakers as well, but there weren’t really any surprises from a market point of view. Cleveland Fed President Hammack said that “I think we need to act now”, but she’d already dissented for a rate hike in July, so that wasn’t a surprise. Meanwhile, Richmond Fed President Barkin (a non-voter this year) was more dovish, pointing out that much of today’s high inflation “has come from shocks, which should pass”.  

This backdrop of softer inflation and more dovish rates pricing led to a big rally for US Treasuries yesterday. In fact, the 10yr Treasury yield (-5.1bps) fell to 4.64%, whilst the rate-sensitive 2yr yield (-5.9bps) fell to 4.14%, its lowest level in almost a month. And the 30yr yield declined by -4.5bps, though we did see the highest yield at a US Treasury auction since 2001 as $25bn of 30yr bonds were issued at 5.216%. In Asia this morning US yields are back up a basis point across the curve.

The dovish momentum received further help yesterday from lower oil prices, which finally ended their run of gains over the last week. It wasn’t a huge fall, but Brent crude was down -2.15% by the close to $87.07/bbl, ending a run of 6 consecutive daily gains. Brent did rise from its intraday low of $85.85/bbl after the Houthi-run Saba news agency reported that the Houthis were targeting the Aramco refinery in the Jizan region. And earlier on in the session, Iran’s state-run IRIB cited a joint military command spokesman, who said that no ship could safely transit the Strait of Hormuz without approval. But overall, in the absence of material news, some of recent run up in geopolitical risk premium was taken out of oil markets, not least given the sizeable recent shipping via Hormuz by shuttle transfers and ships operating without transponders. Brent is flat this morning.  

Beyond the crude oil moves, it’s worth noting the continued tightness in refined product markets. Crack spreads in the US and Europe remain close to the highs reached in late July. So while crude oil prices are down by over 25% from their spring peak, the decline in refined product prices has been more modest. For perspective, while Brent crude is now +20% above pre-Iran war levels, US wholesale gasoline prices are about +50% higher and European diesel prices are about +60% higher. Just ahead of filling our car before the 14-hour drive to the Alps!

Whilst the PPI reading and lower oil prices were the main market drivers yesterday, we also had the US weekly initial jobless claims. They were a bit higher than expected, rising to 209k in the week ending August 8 (vs. 202k expected), so again that cemented the view that the Fed could stay on hold at the next meeting. And in turn, all this dovish newsflow benefited US equities, with the S&P 500 (+0.65%) at another record. This was aided by a recovery for the Magnificent 7 (+1.20%) as well as tech stocks more broadly as the NASDAQ (+0.81%) and the Philly semiconductor index (+0.46%) also advanced. But it was a positive day more broadly with the equal-weighted S&P 500 (+0.74%) outperforming and hitting a new high as well.  

Earlier in Europe, markets hadn’t been quite as resilient, with the STOXX 600 (-0.04%) edging lower for a second consecutive session. In part, that reflected Europe’s smaller exposure to tech, and also that ECB pricing didn’t move as much as Fed pricing did. Indeed, investors continue to price a September rate hike as a 90% chance for the ECB. So yields saw a comparatively smaller fall in Europe than the US, with those on 10yr bunds (-2.9bps), OATs (-3.5bps) and BTPs (-4.8bps) ending the day lower. UK gilts were a particular underperformer, with the 10yr yield only down -1.9bps after the monthly GDP print surprised on the upside in June, unexpectedly rising by +0.3% (vs. -0.1% expected).  

In Asia this morning, the KOSPI (+1.99%) continues its recent comeback, extending its rally to a fifth straight session, with the Nikkei (+0.56%) also firm. In contrast, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (-0.93%) and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (-1.01%) are under pressure, while mainland Chinese benchmarks are seeing modest declines, with the CSI 300 (-0.12%) and Shanghai Composite (-0.21%) edging lower. S&P 500 futures are flat with the Nasdaq equivalent -0.15%. European futures are back up a quarter to half a percent as I type.

Looking at the day ahead, data releases include US retail sales for July, and the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for August. Meanwhile in the Euro Area, there’s also the second estimate of Q2 GDP.

Authored by Edward Ring via American Greatness,

While the burgeoning democratic socialist movement is getting a lot of attention in advance of the 2026 midterm elections, a parallel dimension of wokeism quietly continues to advance. For now, the Trump administration has attenuated its most extreme threats, but its institutional support is unwavering, and its slow progress is unrelenting. The woke greens are pursuing their own long march.

The agenda of the woke greens is synergistic with democratic socialism. Its currency is fear and resentment. The Earth is dying; colonialist capitalism is to blame. Extraordinary measures are called for. Restrict growth, redistribute wealth. Sound familiar? Environmentalist extremism and socialism are two peas in a pod. But both are built on lies. Nothing has delivered more wealth and freedom to more people than authentic capitalism. Not crony, casino, or monopoly capitalism, but capitalism that rewards hard work, protects private property, and preserves the incentives that harness human nature and nurture human creativity.

In contrast to capitalism, socialism is a nightmare that turns out the lights in nation after nation. The historical evidence is overwhelming. Strive to improve the mechanics of capitalism, and reject socialist demagoguery.

But there’s a catch. The planet is burning up. Ecosystems are in collapse. Therefore, we have no choice; we must redistribute wealth so everyone can consume less. Without radical measures, our civilization is unsustainable. This argument sounds compelling. But it is also built on lies that must be challenged.

Here are some of the flawed, false premises for the woke greens.

We face a climate emergency.

To anyone who has studied both sides of the debate, this is a manipulative shibboleth. From a more balanced perspective, even if there is an emergency, the opportunistic profiteering of the climate industry is obvious, and “climate” is revealed all too often as just a marketing ploy to garner mandates and subsidies for projects that would otherwise never survive an honest cost-benefit analysis.

There are nearly infinite scientifically valid reasons that explain why the planet is not experiencing an actual climate crisis, and, thanks to the failure of the climate industry to completely silence the skeptics, it’s become easier than ever to study these reasons. A good place to start is with the 2021 book “Unsettled: What Climate Science Tells Us, What It Doesn’t, and Why It Matters” by Steven E. Koonin. Another continuously updated source of climate realism comes from the CO2 Coalition, a network of scientists committed to debunking the alarmist narrative. There’s much more. Read the classic “Cool It: The Skeptical Environmentalist’s Guide to Global Warming,” by economist Bjorn Lomborg, or the more recent “Apocalypse Never: Why Environmental Alarmism Hurts Us All” by Michael Shellenberger.

The inconvenient truth for woke greens is that the climate alarm narrative, which is the foundation of their entire subsequent agenda, is not true. But the truth has to contend with a multitrillion-dollar industry that relies on the useful fear and resentment that a “climate emergency” imparts to millions of people. It is used to silence debate over the efficacy of every one of the following destructive delusions. In no particular order, here are some of them.

Floating offshore wind provides sustainable electricity.

This is a preposterous lie. Floating offshore wind is the most expensive source of electricity on Earth. It has never been deployed successfully at scale. It is a resource hog, it wreaks environmental havoc, and installations are short-lived in the maritime environment. The heavily subsidized corporations that buy politicians and profit from this monstrous scam would not exist in a competitive market.

Biofuel is a carbon-neutral, sustainable fuel.

Another preposterous lie. There are nearly 450,000 square miles of biofuel plantations worldwide, and altogether they only supply five percent of total demand for liquid transportation fuel. These are pesticide-, herbicide-, and fertilizer-drenched monocultures that have replaced rainforests throughout the tropics. If you replaced all the arable farmland on Earth with these abominations, that would still only provide 60 percent of global demand for transportation fuel, which in turn represents only 30 percent of total demand for energy in the world. Is this sustainable?

Dams must be demolished.

While there is controversy over some dams—Turkey has new dams that can deny water to Iraq and Syria, and Ethiopia has built one that can cut off water to Egypt—in general, we need dams for flood control, navigation, irrigation, and hydroelectric power. There are ways to mitigate the impact of dams on migrating fish, and there are many instances of how dams can help the environments they impact. But no matter. According to the woke greens, they must all be demolished.

The only way to manage forests is to leave them completely alone.

This is nonsense. Forests that are managed responsibly with sustainable logging, mechanical thinning, controlled burns, and livestock grazing are far healthier. In prehistory, fires naturally and routinely thinned forests, which maintained their health by preventing an unhealthy density of trees and shrubs. Now that we put out forest fires, we must compensate by managing the resulting growth. All over the United States we are seeing superfires that are not the result of climate change but a consequence of environmentalists chasing out the loggers while not permitting any other method of thinning.

We must reintroduce wild animals wherever they once roamed.

A related premise of the woke greens is that we must not only save endangered species but also reintroduce them throughout their ancient range. Now we have mountain lions roaming the Los Angeles suburbs and wolf packs spreading slowly throughout the western United States, and there’s even talk of bringing the grizzly bear back to California. Because, to quote a woke green, “It’s their land.” No. It isn’t. It’s appropriate to take reasonable steps to preserve wildlife and wilderness areas, but allowing dangerous predator species that already have stable populations to expand their range is explicitly anti-human. We have to responsibly manage wildlife populations just as we have to responsibly manage forests. That means we have to set and enforce limits on their range.

People should live in densely populated cities.

The idea here is that someone living in a one-bedroom apartment in a high-rise in a neighborhood with 30,000 people per square mile is more “sustainable” than people living in detached homes with their own yards. The inhumanity of this is stunning, but it’s also just false. Urbanized areas on Earth (that’s cities and towns) today only total around 200,000 square miles, and yet 81 percent of the world population lives in them. We have 41 million square miles of habitable land on Earth. If 10 billion people lived in homes on quarter-acre lots, four per household, with an equal amount of land set aside for roads, parks, schools, and commercial and industrial areas, it would use up less than 2 million square miles of that land, less than five percent of habitable land.

There are too many people for the planet’s resources to sustain.

This is absolutely false. The crisis we face in the world is too few people. Birthrates are collapsing everywhere on the planet, with the exception of significant parts of the Islamic world and sub-Saharan Africa—which explains why migrants from those nations are swarming into any developed nations that will admit them. The challenge for humanity is to convince people who have attained the liberty and prosperity to live lives beyond bare subsistence to still decide to have children. The human population is projected, at most, to peak at 10 billion by around 2050. After that, unless dramatic cultural trends are reversed, it will decline precipitously.

Rationing energy, water, land, and other resources is necessary to save the planet.

The irony here is that the “renewables” touted by the woke greens as the sustainable solution to environmental challenges are the biggest resource hogs of all. But all historical evidence demonstrates that as long as people have freedom to innovate, for every dwindling resource, something new replaces it. Humanity has never before stood at the threshold of as many new technological breakthroughs as we have right now. The only thing that stops us from achieving per capita abundance at higher levels than ever is authoritarian corruption, and among the biggest enablers of that are the woke greens.

These false premises only scratch the surface of how woke greens and their favored mantra, the “climate emergency,” are transforming global politics, especially in Western nations, and not for the better. Accompanying the danger the continued dominance of these false premises poses to our freedom and prosperity is great irony. For those who have concluded these premises are false, there is less willingness to recognize new so-called green technologies that nonetheless make economic sense and merit further development. And for those who are fixated on the false premise of a climate emergency, there is less ability to recognize and address genuine threats to the environment, of which there are many.

Climate alarmism has taken on a momentum detached from reality. For tens of thousands of bureaucrats and politicians in the U.S., accepting it is simply the path of least resistance. But just as all elements of radical woke ideology must be challenged and overcome, so too must the woke green movement.

Our view of the missing air-defense layer around data centers and other critical infrastructure emerged in late January, roughly one month before the US-Iran conflict, when we published “Explosion in AI Data Center Buildouts Will Demand Next-Gen Counter-Drone Security.”

That theme was validated shortly after the war began, when Iran targeted multiple data centers with Shahed-series one-way attack drones, which generally fall within the Group 3 category. The strikes marked one of the clearest demonstrations of how low-cost, long-range drones could threaten the physical infrastructure underpinning the AI economy.

The conflict has fundamentally changed the threat assessment surrounding high-value civilian assets and has become a matter of general consensus among military leaders and politicians, as well as the military-industrial complex and many defense startups.

We just happened to be one month ahead of that shift in consensus.

Now, defense giant Northrop Grumman has unveiled Raid Hunter, a 50mm gun-based air-defense system designed to protect not only military bases but also critical infrastructure from drone swarms, cruise missiles and other aerial threats.

The skies are changing. Defending against one threat isn’t enough anymore. Our Raid Hunter™ is built to meet the challenge with precision-guided gunfire and the speed needed to help protect what’s critical. pic.twitter.com/Meuqyg04oY

— Northrop Grumman (@northropgrumman) August 11, 2026

Raid Hunter combines the company’s Chain Gun technology with precision-guided 50mm ammunition and a networked battle-management controller. Northrop said the high rate of fire, deep magazine and rapid reload capability offer a more economical response than launching million-dollar interceptor missiles at $20,000 drones.

Highlights of the new kinetic interceptor:

• Raid Hunter combines proven Chain Gun technology, precision-guided 50mm ammunition and a networked, interoperable system controller to deliver powerful protection against high-volume, mixed-threat aerial raids. It is designed to defeat a range of aerial threats, including high-priority cruise missile threats, unmanned aerial systems (UAS) and other advanced threats.
• Raid Hunter’s guided 50mm ammunition, combined with a high-rate-of-fire Chain Gun, delivers lethal, cost-considerate engagement with deep magazines and fast reloads, tackling the economic challenge of massed swarming threats.
• Raid Hunter is built to deploy with speed and flexibility through a modular design for rapid transportation on the C-130, with future vehicle-mounted and container-based variants planned.
• Raid Hunter is the latest product of Northrop Grumman’s continued investment in advanced counter-UAS and air-defense technologies designed to meet evolving operational requirements and emerging battlefield threats.
• As part of the company’s C-UAS integrated air- and missile-defense portfolio, the system supports layered defense architectures to protect critical assets across a range of operations.

The big challenge now shifts to series production capable of meeting the soaring demand from bases, data centers, refineries, power plants, substations, and you name it… 

Authored by Michael Kern via OilPrice.com,

Decommissioning remained a major activity across the UK North Sea in 2025, with industry spending hitting a record-high of £2.6 billion, or $3.5 billion, the North Sea industry regulator said in a report on Thursday.

Well-decommissioning remains the single largest component of forecast decommissioning expenditure on the UK Continental Shelf (UKCS), accounting for around half of expected costs to 2032, the North Sea Transition Authority (NSTA) noted in its annual decommissioning cost and performance update.

The UK North Sea has a backlog of about 500 wells awaiting decommissioning and final abandonment, which means operators need to speed up work on well closures and abandonment, the watchdog said.

Last year, operators in the UK North Sea spent about £1.3 billion, or $1.75 billion, on well decommissioning activity only, with work undertaken on more than 250 wells and over 100 reaching final abandonment status.

“While this represents an increase in activity, a backlog of approximately 500 wells awaiting final abandonment remains,” the NSTA said.

“With more than 1,000 additional wells forecast to be decommissioned over the next five years, activity levels will need to increase significantly if industry is to meet regulatory expectations and provide the certainty of work needed to attract and retain critical supply chain resources.”

Nearly half of all spending on decommissioning in the UKCS is expected to be made by 2032, in what has been dubbed the ‘decade of decommissioning’ by the regulator.

Moreover, decommissioning expenditure is forecast to overtake capital expenditure (capex) from 2029 onwards as the UK North Sea matures and as few new oil and gas projects have been given the green light in recent years.

In what could be a relief for the North Sea offshore oil and gas industry, the UK’s new Labour Prime Minister, Andy Burnham, is expected to support some new projects, unlike his predecessor, Sir Keir Starmer, who sought to permanently ban new drilling.