FBI Raids Office And Cannabis Dispensary Of Virginia State Sen. L. Louise Lucas
Federal agents from the FBI executed court-authorized search warrants Wednesday morning at the Portsmouth legislative office of longtime Democratic Virginia State Sen. L. Louise Lucas and at an adjacent cannabis retail business she co-owns, as part of an ongoing federal corruption probe tied to marijuana dispensary operations.
The raids, which also extended to other unspecified locations across the commonwealth, stunned Virginia political circles given Lucas’s status as one of the state’s most powerful and influential lawmakers. Lucas, 82, who has represented Portsmouth in the Senate since 1992 and serves as President Pro Tempore, was not arrested and returned home by midday, according to her longtime political consultant. No charges have been filed against her or anyone else publicly identified in connection with the searches.
Details of the Operation
The FBI’s Norfolk field office confirmed in a statement that agents were “executing a court-authorized federal search warrant in Portsmouth, Va.” FBI spokeswoman Cassandra Temple told reporters on scene that the bureau was conducting “court-authorized law enforcement activity today” but provided no further details on the targets or allegations.
Eyewitness accounts and news footage described a significant law enforcement presence: approximately 8 – 10 agents in marked uniforms at Lucas’s office in the Lucas Professional Center, with staff ordered outside and prevented from re-entering while agents carried out boxes of materials. At the neighboring cannabis dispensary, known as The Cannabis Outlet (or Cannabis Outlet), SWAT team members arrived with weapons drawn, ordered occupants to exit with hands raised, and placed at least three people in handcuffs before taking them into custody. Lucas arrived in the parking lot shortly after the operation began and told a reporter she had “no idea” what was happening.
A person close to the senator told CNN that agents seized electronics and other items. The investigation, which sources described as having opened during the Biden administration and continuing under the current administration, focuses on possible corruption and bribery related to marijuana dispensary businesses.
Political Context: Redistricting Champion
The timing of the raids has fueled speculation and partisan debate because of Lucas’s prominent role in Virginia’s recent congressional redistricting battle. Last month, Virginia voters approved—by a margin of more than 100,000 votes – a referendum allowing mid-decade redrawing of congressional district lines under certain conditions. Lucas was a leading architect of the effort, which produced new maps that could shift Virginia’s congressional delegation from its current 6–5 Democratic edge to as many as 10 Democratic seats out of 11.
Democrats framed the redistricting as a necessary counter to Republican-led gerrymandering efforts in other states ahead of the 2026 midterms. Lucas was characteristically blunt in public exchanges, responding on social media to Texas Sen. Ted Cruz’s criticism of the maps as a Democratic gerrymander with the words: “You all started it and we fucking finished it.”
“While we await the full facts of the investigation, it must be acknowledged that this FBI raid occurs in the broader context of President [Donald] Trump’s repeated abuse of the Department of Justice to target his perceived political opponents,” Rep. Bobby Scott (D-VA) posted on X.
The FBI has not publicly linked the searches to redistricting. Official statements emphasize only that the probe is ongoing and that there is no threat to public safety.
Multiple high-ranking officials in the Washington, DC Metropolitan Police Department (MPD) are facing termination in connection with allegations about how they handled and possibly manipulated crime statistics in the district.
Breitbart reports that three MPD officials told The Washington Post that “multiple high-ranking” officials—all captains or above, all in leadership—were given “papers saying the department intends to fire them.”
According to a DC Police Union press release, the anticipated terminations are directly related to an investigation into allegations that the officials engaged in direct manipulation of crime data to minimize the level of crime in DC.
The union, which represents 3,000 MPD officers, welcomed the decision to terminate the officials, saying, “These actions, tied directly to the department’s completed Internal Affairs investigation into the deliberate manipulation of crime data, mark a long-overdue step toward justice and the restoration of integrity with MPD.”
The Washington Post reports, “The District has reported a decline in overall crime in recent years after a historic spike in 2023. But some in D.C. police circles have long complained that certain managers routinely reduced the severity of crime classifications to make their police districts appear safer or avoid criticism from top department brass.”
In some districts, armed home invasions were written down as “trespassing” instead, dropping a vioIent felony to a low-level misdemeanor, in order to manipulate the crime stats.
The 13 individuals who were served termination papers have not been fired yet as they are entitled to due process under the department’s general orders.
Interim MPD Chief Jeffrey Carroll said, “The administrative process must be allowed to take its course, and that process is outlined in our MPD general orders.”
Carroll added, “Let me be clear, we have made meaningful progress over the last three years in reducing crime. Homicides, shootings and carjackings have fallen steadily since 2023.”
NBC 4 reports that three of the high-level officials worked very closely with former Chief Pamela Smith, including her second-in-command and at least one assistant chief who oversaw patrol in half of DC.
US Navy Jet Fires On Iran-Flagged Tanker Trying To Reach Iranian Port
Summary
US Navy jet fires on Iran-flagged tanker trying to reach Iranian waters & port.
Axios reports that the White House is nearing a preliminary deal with Iran to end the war, as Trump post appears to offer olive branch. Other reports say just hammering out at ‘framework’ for ‘monthlong’ talks.
White House says it expects a response to the latest offer within 48 hours.
Iran’s initial response via media & national security spox: US demands are unrealistic & do not reflect reality, & Axios report based on too much ‘speculation’.
A key caveat of the US offered deal is that Iran would commit to a moratorium on uranium enrichment, & Washington wants a 20-year ban on this; Iran & China FMs coordinate messaging in Beijing, denying Iran’s intent to build nuclear bomb.
So much for that ceasefire and alleged ‘pause’ in US naval blockade actions, as things just took another escalatory turn. In this case, a rare live fire incident unfolded Wednesday in Gulf waters as a US jet launched from the Lincoln carrier fired on and possibly disabled an Iranian-flagged tanker, per the officials US Central Command statement:
U.S. forces operating in the Gulf of Oman enforced blockade measures by disabling an Iranian-flagged unladen oil tanker attempting to sail toward an Iranian port at 9 a.m. ET, May 6.
U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces observed M/T Hasna as it transited international waters enroute to an Iranian port on the Gulf of Oman. American forces issued multiple warnings and informed the Iranian-flagged vessel it was in violation of the U.S. blockade.
After Hasna’s crew failed to comply with repeated warnings, U.S. forces disabled the tanker’s rudder by firing several rounds from the 20mm cannon gun of a U.S. Navy F/A-18 Super Hornet launched from USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72). Hasna is no longer transiting to Iran.
The Pentagon/CENTCOM statement then emphasized, “The U.S. blockade against ships attempting to enter or depart Iranian ports remains in full effect. CENTCOM forces continue to act deliberately and professionally to ensure compliance.” Tehran’s response to this will be interesting, and follows prior alleged attacks this week on the UAE.
‘Framework’ Being Hammered Out for ‘Monthlong Period of Talks’
Iran’s Foreign Ministry has said that Iran’s response to the United States has not yet been presented to mediator Pakistan, as the WSJ reports that the US and Iranian sides are currently trying to hammer out a one-page memorandum of understanding which features 14-points. This would “lay out a framework” – the report says, for a “monthlong period of talks to end the war.”
Given that agreement cannot even be found on the ‘framework’ for future talks, it seems the process is not very advanced at all – but is perhaps still back at square one, with headlines in the US way out front, and likely overly optimistic.
CNN citing the White House: “The White House received positive feedback from Pakistani mediators on Tuesday that the Iranians were progressing toward a compromise.” And more from WSJ:
Iran’s mission to the UN said that “the only viable solution in the Strait of Hormuz is clear: a permanent end to the war, the lifting of the maritime blockade, and the restoration of normal passage.”
Key Timing of Wang-Araghchi Meeting in Beijing
During Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi’s visit to Beijing on Wednesday, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi pushed for the rapid reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a halt to the fighting. Araghchi echoed the urgency, saying, “Currently, it is possible to resolve the issue of reopening the Strait of Hormuz as soon as possible.” Wang called for a “comprehensive ceasefire” and stressed that “the international community shares a common concern for restoring normal and safe passage through the Strait,” urging swift action.
The coordinated messaging reflects shared economic and strategic interests, especially as US naval actions have disrupted Iranian oil flows to China. Wang also signaled support for Tehran’s position, stating China “appreciates Iran’s pledge to not develop nuclear weapons,” while Iran continues to insist its nuclear program is peaceful and maintains its right to uranium enrichment as a matter of sovereignty.
Wang reinforced Beijing’s stance by warning that “a comprehensive ceasefire brooks no delay” and that negotiations must continue, while US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has called on China to pressure Iran to ease its blockade of the strait.
Alarmed Reaction from Israel
An Israeli official cited in Times of Israel said Israel did not know that President Trump was close to a deal with Iran to end the fighting and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, even as global headlines pointed to progress. The official said Israel had been preparing for escalation, reflecting recent reports that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government was waiting for US approval to resume its aerial campaign following 38 days of strikes under Operation Epic Fury.
US messaging has shifted rapidly. with Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Tuesday having announced the end of Operation Epic Fury and a pivot to Project Freedom focused on reopening Hormuz, while Trump later declared a pause to allow negotiations. The mixed signals from Washington created confusion as diplomacy and military positioning unfolded simultaneously.
Both Iran and Israel signaled readiness to escalate despite the diplomatic push. Iran warned its “finger is on the trigger,” while Israeli military chief Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir said forces have multiple targets prepared inside Iran and remain on high alert. He emphasized ongoing coordination with US forces and readiness to resume a broad campaign if fighting restarts.
More Official Iran Denials: Too Much ‘Speculation’
The latest response out of Tehran via Tasnim: “Despite claims by US media that Iran and the US are close to a final one-page agreement to end the war, Iran has not yet given an official response to the Americans’ final text, which contains some unacceptable clauses.”
And separately Iran’s ISNA calls parts of the Axios report “speculation” – also reiterating the country has rejected some recent US proposals, as they are “unrealistic”. However, an Iranian spokesperson has said that Iran is indeed “reviewing the US proposal to end the war.”
Trump Admits: ‘Too Soon’
And now a bit of rapid narrative reversal, coming from President Trump himself, after once again a likely premature early morning Axios report with overly optimistic language. Trump’s fresh words are via the NY Post:
President Donald Trump said it’s “too soon” to plan peace talks with Iran despite reports of a near deal, downplaying prospects of imminent negotiations in Pakistan. He warned that if Iran accepts terms, hostilities could end and the Strait of Hormuz reopen—but failure to agree would trigger intensified military action.
Indeed the Iranian reaction issued via media reports also suggests this is the case, that all the talk of an agreement being close is premature, and there remains immense hurdles and a long way to go. Axios’ Barak Ravid still insists that “the sources said this was the closest the parties had been to an agreement since the war began.”
Initial Word From Tehran: Doesn’t Reflect Reality
Iranian initial reaction through its media: “What US media outlets are publishing about the details of the negotiations does not reflect the reality of what is happening, according to AI Araby citing Iranian Sources.”
“Progress has been made in talks with Washington through Pakistan, but it has not yet reached a level that would lead to an agreement,” the statement says. The Iranians are also clearly sticking by their approach which says the nuclear issue is a non-starter and that talks must focus on opening Hormuz and finding a final end to the conflict. “The negotiations are focused on ending the war, not the nuclear issue,” the statement in Al Araby continues.
And then the final criticism of Washington’s approach: “The negotiations are still facing the intransigent American approach and excessive demands.” And further, this:
Ebrahim Rezaei dismissed U.S. demands as unrealistic, saying Washington won’t gain through conflict what it failed to secure in talks. He added Iran is ready to act and warned of a severe, regret-inducing response to any provocation.
Here is the full statement from the Iranian Spokesperson of the National Security and Foreign Policy Commission (via machine translation):
Trump Issues Carrot & Stick
The below is a fresh Trump Truth Social Post on Wednesday morning, warning the Iranians that the Hormuz Strait must be “open to all”. However, the president continues, if Tehran doesn’t agree then “the bombing starts” and it will be at a “much higher level and intensity than it was before”.
All of this has followed an awkward 24 hours of drastically different signals coming from various top officials of the US administration.
Marco Rubio says the goal of the war in Iran is now to restore it “back to the way it was” before Trump started the war in Iran pic.twitter.com/G1E9qyxMc4
Axios reports that the White House is nearing a preliminary deal with Iran to end the war. This is based on a 14-point, one-page memorandum that creates a 30-day negotiating window for a broader nuclear and Strait of Hormuz deal and follows President Trump’s announcement last night of “great progress” and a “complete and final” deal nearing.
“The U.S. expects Iranian responses on several key points in the next 48 hours.
Nothing has been agreed yet, but sources said this was the closest the parties had been to an agreement since the war began,” Axios wrote in the report.
Here are the key points:
Iran would commit to a moratorium on uranium enrichment. The duration is still under negotiation, with the U.S. pushing for 20 years, Iran offering five, and sources suggesting 12 to 15 years may be the likely spot.
Iran would also pledge not to seek nuclear weapons, accept enhanced inspections, potentially halt underground nuclear facility operations, and possibly remove highly enriched uranium from the country.
The U.S. would gradually lift sanctions and release billions of dollars in frozen Iranian funds.
Shipping restrictions through the Hormuz chokepoint and the U.S. naval blockade would be gradually lifted during the 30-day talks. If negotiations fail, U.S. forces could restore the blockade or resume military action.
Axios said talks are being led by Trump envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner with top Iranian officials, both directly and through mediators.
News of this sparked risk on in U.S. equity index futures, WTI fell to the $95-a-barrel handle, and U.S. Treasury yields dipped.
The Moscow meeting reinforced a long-standing imbalance, with Iran seeking deeper support while Russia offered only vague diplomatic backing.
The 20-year Iran–Russia deal structurally favors Moscow, especially in energy and trade terms, leaving Tehran with limited economic and strategic upside.
Russia’s growing military and economic strain reduces its ability to support Iran, exposing the fragility of the partnership.
Iran has a long history of being screwed over by Russia, and last week’s meeting in Moscow between Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Russian President Vladimir Putin over the U.S.–Israel–Iran war suggests nothing in that dynamic is about to change, according to extremely well-placed sources on both sides who spoke exclusively to OilPrice.com over the weekend. On the one hand, Tehran’s perennially baseless optimism that “this time will be different” was on full display in Araghchi’s excited praise for the marvels of the two countries’ so called ‘strategic relationship’. On the other hand, Moscow responded with all the warmth of an international telephone operator: Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said only that Russia stands ready to offer “goodwill or mediation services”, with no indication of any upgrade to the relationship service package. It fits so neatly into the familiar pattern of this abusive relationship that one wonders whether social services should be called. Or perhaps Moscow’s disinterest is merely an act — a way of masking the deep and broad assistance from Tehran that it so clearly craves?
The theoretical basis of this relationship is the 20-year comprehensive cooperation deal between Iran and Russia — formally titled The Treaty on the Basis of Mutual Relations and Principles of Cooperation between Iran and Russia — approved by Iran’s late Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, on 18 January 2024, as I exclusively reported in OilPrice.com at the time. It replaced the 10-year deal signed in March 2001 (extended twice by five years) and was expanded in duration, scope and scale, particularly in the defence and energy sectors. In several respects, the new deal complemented key elements of the all-encompassing Iran-China 25-Year Comprehensive Cooperation Agreement, first revealed anywhere in the world in my 3 September 2019 article and analysed in full in my latest book on the new global oil market order. The similarities were deliberate, designed to make the division of the key strategic assets most coveted by Moscow and Beijing easier to manage in practice. Related: China Orders Refiners to Ignore U.S. Sanctions on Key Iranian Oil Buyers
As with much of Russia’s foreign policy dealings, the devil was in the details. As a sign of how things would pan out for Tehran in the rest of the document, Russia stood to benefit at Iran’s expense in the key energy sector to begin with. The deal gave Russia the first right of extraction in the Iranian section of the Caspian Sea, including the potentially huge Chalous field. This came on top of Russia’s startlingly brazen theft in 2019 of at least US$3.2 trillion in revenues from Iran through the lost value of energy products across their shared Caspian assets going forward. The same right of first extraction for Russia was also applied in the new 20-year deal to several of Iran’s major oil and gas fields in the Khorramshahr and nearby Ilam provinces that border Iraq, which China had not already prioritised for its own needs. Several of these sites had the broader financial and geopolitical benefits attached to their being shared fields with Iraq. This status allowed the effective free movement of Iranian oil disguised as Iraqi oil, and extended Tehran’s influence over Baghdad through its political, economic, and military proxies. By extension, it did the same for Moscow and Beijing, which used this as a springboard to further project their influence across the Iran-dominated Shia Crescent of Power.
This powerbase in Iran and Iraq had also been central to Russia’s longstanding plan to build a ‘land bridge’ to the Mediterranean Sea coast of another of its key global assets at the time — Syria. This would enable Moscow to exponentially increase weapons delivery into southern Lebanon and the Golan Heights area of Syria to be used in attacks on Israel. The core aim of this policy was to provoke a conflict in the Middle East that would draw in the U.S. and its allies into an unwinnable war, and was seen as a natural extension of the Israel-Hamas War that had begun after the terrorist organisation’s murderous spree across Israel on 7 October 2023. Given its centrality to Moscow’s plans, then, Iran was at that point still confident that the Kremlin would meet its other promises in the 20-year deal, despite the shenanigans surrounding the energy side of the treaty as it related to the Caspian’s oil and gas riches. “Iran had long been asking Russia for the means to defend itself better against any attacks, especially those that might come from Israel or the U.S. — in particular for the S-400 missile defence system and Sukhoi Su-34 and 35 fighter jets,” a very senior source working closely with Iran’s Petroleum Ministry exclusively told OilPrice.com. “But these requests have continually been subject to further conditionality by Russia, such as upgrading key airports and seaports that Moscow sees as especially useful for dual-use by its air force and navy, and which are also close to major oil and gas facilities.
The terms of the individual defence and energy deals were also made increasingly onerous for Iran by Russia as preconditions for the final delivery of Iran’s requests. According to this source — and confirmed to OilPrice.com at the time by a very senior source working closely with the Russian government — the price of all items traded between Russia and Iran, including military and energy hardware, had been formalised in the 20-year deal on terms that were not in Iran’s favour. For Iranian goods exported to Russia, Tehran would receive the cost of production plus 8 per cent. However, these export sales to Russia would not be transferred to Iran, but rather would be held as credit in the Central Bank of Russia (CBR). Moreover, Iran would receive a huge markdown on US dollar/Rouble or Euro/Rouble exchange rates used to calculate its credits in the CBR. Conversely, for Russian goods exported to Iran, Moscow would receive the payment in advance of delivery and at an exchange rate that benefited Russia. Moreover, the base price before any exchange rate calculations would be set at the highest price that Russia has received in the previous 180 days for whichever product it was selling to Iran. Moscow ensured itself the highest possible price by selling the relevant product to Belarus at a very large premium shortly beforehand, so establishing the required pricing benchmark. Payments for goods and services falling outside the direct finance route between the central banks of the two countries would be handled through interbank transfers between Iranian and Russian banks. Transactions involving renminbi would also be routed through China’s Cross-Border Interbank Payment System, Beijing’s alternative to the globally-dominant Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications system.
The additional problem for Iran now is that Russia is increasingly unable to provide even this limited assistance to it as its own troubles mount. Although U.S. President Donald Trump’s stance on Russia’s ’10-Day Special Military Operation’ — at the time of writing, in its 1,530th day — has broadly favoured Putin and his ability to keep funding the conflict, things have turned very recently. The removal of pro-Putin Hungarian President Viktor Orbán in last month’s general election removed the obstacle that blocked €90 billion in European Union (E.U.) aid to Ukraine, with more to come as and when needed. This comes at a time when, according to military sources, Russia is only able to replace 70 per cent of the soldiers it is losing on the battlefield — an unsustainable loss, which brings with it the deeply politically unsettling prospect of having to widen conscription out to the big cities, including Moscow and St. Petersburg. Moreover, Ukraine is now relentlessly hitting key oil and gas infrastructure targets deep in Russia, reducing its ability to monetise these exports to fund its Ukraine campaign. Crude oil export data suggested the rise in prices, plus the easing of U.S. sanctions on countries buying Russian oil, boosted Russian revenues to 2.3 times their December-February levels in the third week of the Iran war. But by the fourth week, Ukrainian drone strikes on energy-producing infrastructure reduced Russia’s earnings by US$1 billion, eradicating around two-thirds of the previous week’s gains. And destroying Russia’s energy infrastructure using Ukraine-manufactured long-range drones — without any U.S. assistance and using E.U. funding — is now a priority target.
As it stands, Iran has once again bet on a partner that takes far more than it ever gives. And as Russia’s own position deteriorates, even the illusion of reciprocity is evaporating. Tehran may soon discover that Moscow’s promises were always worth less than the paper they were written on. With Russia now struggling to sustain its own war effort, the chances of it honouring its commitments to Iran are shrinking by the day. And when the Kremlin finally admits it has nothing left to offer, Tehran will be left with no air defences, no aircraft, no navy, and no leverage — only the bill for a partnership that never paid out.
World Starts To “Build” Around Hormuz; Japan Buying UAE Oil Bypassing Strait As ADNOC To Spend $55 Billion On Pipelines
Long after the Iran war is just a bookmark in the history books, one distinct consequence will persist: much of the world, at least the part that does not fall under the Chinese sphere of influence, will do everything it can to avoid the Strait of Hormuz and failing that, have a Plan B. Just like when the Biden admin weaponized the US Dollar in 2022 by booting Russia from SWIFT after the Ukraine war, and in the process started the biggest gold and bitcoin rally in history as the rest of the world parked its savings in non-USD assets, so the world’s most important oil choke point will never again be viewed again in the same way after Iran launched dozens of rockets at the ships transiting it.
This shift in perception is what James Thorne, chief market strategist of WellingtonAltus, called “Iran’s Historic Mistake“; he explains it as follows:
By weaponizing the Strait of Hormuz, Iran committed a strategic blunder of historic proportions. Tehran meant to punish America. Instead, it exposed every power built on imported energy, vulnerable sea lanes, and the delusion that globalization repealed geography. China is exposed. Europe is exposed. Britain is exposed. Iran has created a world where hard resource power decides outcomes.
And the punchline:
Iran’s mistake is that once Hormuz becomes structurally unreliable, the world builds around it. That means bypass corridors, revived pipeline politics, and urgent planning for routes linking Aqaba to Mediterranean outlets near Gaza and the long-stalled Basra-to-Aqaba pipeline. The old energy order is cracking. The UAE’s OPEC exit signals cartel discipline giving way to national advantage under pressure.
The full note can be found here, and we didn’t have long to wait to see the world it predicted begin to emerge.
Earlier today, Nikkei Asia reported that Japan agreed to buy an additional 20 million barrels of crude oil from the United Arab Emirates as Tokyo continues pursuing alternative supply channels amid the effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Japan used 2.36 million barrels of crude oil per day in 2025, the economy ministry reports. Based on this average, the additional 20 million barrels from the UAE could cover eight to nine days’ worth of demand, so much more is coming.
The deal was finalized Tuesday after Ryosei Akazawa, Japan’s minister of economy, trade and industry, met with the Emirati industry minister in Abu Dhabi. Akazawa told reporters after the meeting that he had requested increased oil supplies for Japan.
Roughly 40% of Japan’s crude oil imports comes from the UAE. The Middle Eastern country, which left the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries on Friday, intends to gradually increase oil production at its own discretion, which could lead to more cooperation with Japan.
Japan will pick up the Emirati oil at the port of Fujairah on the UAE’s eastern coast, which lies on the Gulf of Oman, allowing for crude exports without going through the Strait of Hormuz.
The war in the Middle East — a region on which Japan has relied for more than 90% of its oil supply — has spurred Tokyo to approach other oil producers. It reached a deal last month to procure 1 million barrels of crude from Mexico.
Recently Japan’s government said that around 60% of the oil Japan needs this month can be sourced through channels that do not involve shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, with releases from domestic stockpiles covering the remaining 40%.
Expect many more such deals from other Asian countries as passage through Hormuz will be one big question mark for years to come, absent a pro-Western regime taking control in Iran.
Realizing the coming demand flood for its Fujairah-laden oil, and in anticipation of its post-OPEC renaissance, on May 3rd, UAE state energy company Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) Group, announced plans to award AED200bn (US$55bn) in upstream and downstream project contracts between 2026-28, at the ‘Make it with ADNOC’ forum in Abu Dhabi.
Omar Al Nuaimi, ADNOC’s Acting Group Chief, stated that ADNOC is moving into a new phase of accelerated, world-scale delivery to meet rising global energy demand. ”ADNOC is proud to continue reinforcing our role as a catalyst of the UAE’s industrial growth and an enabler of the Make it in the Emirates initiative,” he told the Emirates News Agency (WAM) on the sidelines of ‘Make it With ADNOC’ Forum, held ahead of the Make it in the Emirates 2026.
”As part of this effort, we announced today at the ‘Make it with ADNOC’ Forum, our plan to award AED200 billion in projects over the next two years as part of our CAPEX approved by the Board in November,” he said, explaining that the planned project awards span ADNOC’s upstream and downstream operations and usher in a new phase of project delivery that will supercharge UAE’s manufacturing capacity, strengthen industrial resilience, deepen the impact of the company’s In-Country Value program and advance the ‘Make it in the Emirates’ initiative.
In a note from Goldman (available here to pro subs), the bank writes that management characterized the announcement as marking the execution phase of its strategy, focused on scale, pace, and delivery to meet rising global energy demand while reinforcing the UAE’s industrial base. The forum convened >400 participants, linking EPC contractors with qualified UAE-based manufacturers under the in-country value program. The award pipeline spans the entire upstream-to-downstream value chain, focusing on:
Capacity expansion: Scaling of crude oil and gas production capacity alongside deeper downstream integration
In-Country Value (ICV): Channelling spend through the Local+ program to prioritize UAE-manufactured inputs.
Supply chain resilience: Localizing critical equipment sourcing to mitigate global disruption and cost inflation risk.
According to Goldman, this announcement represents the first tranche of its previously announced $150BN capex program for 2030. The bank views the announcement as positive for key enablers such as ADNOC Drilling and ADNOC L&S, as they stand to be the primary beneficiaries of the upstream and downstream award pipeline. Furthermore, the signaled US$55bn commitment over 2026-28 serves as a strong signal of ADNOC Group’s expansion roadmap. Goldman sees upside risk to consensus numbers for the key enabler subsidiaries given the potential for accelerated execution timelines and higher-than-guided growth targets as ADNOC ramps up capacity across the value chain.
Dubai is facing an existential crisis with the US and Israeli war on Iran forcing tourism numbers to fall sharply, with widespread hotel closures and job losses decimating the global tourism hotspots’ hospitality sector.
On Monday, Dubai Airports reported that first-quarter passenger traffic was down by at least 2.5 million from the same period in 2025, with March seeing a 66 percent drop in passenger numbers as travelers chose to steer clear of the Gulf.
The company did not specify forecasts for this year but on Saturday, in a bid to kickstart tourism, the UAE announced that all air travel restrictions that were put in place after Iran launched retaliatory strikes on all six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries that house or cooperate closely with US forces had been lifted.
In a post on their official X account, the Civil Aviation Authority wrote: “Our decision came following a comprehensive assessment of operational and security conditions, in coordination with the relevant authorities”. The statement was clearly meant to relay confidence to international travelers, especially after several European airlines announced that they would be suspending flights to the Middle East.
Workers and business owners in Dubai, who spoke to the Middle East Eye on condition of anonymity due GCC-wide restrictions on public statements about the effects of Tehran’s attacks, say it will still take some time to see if the announcement will restore confidence among travelers and investors.
Charity, a Kenyan hotel worker said the mid-priced hotel she works at was definitely affected by the 1.4 million people who travelled through the UAE over the first two weeks of March. During the Muslim month of Ramadan, when Iranian missile and drone attacks were at their worst, the hotel, part of a US-based chain, was full of stranded passengers who would meet with Emirates Airlines representatives in the lobby.
During the month, the hotel’s pool was closed to guests and by the final days, guests staying in the higher floors of the 20-floor building were moved to the lower floors as a precautionary measure. After that, though, she said “things really slowed down for a few weeks”.
She said she hoped the announcement would provide some assurance to travelers. “We’ll see over the next week if people really start to come back,” she said while helping a long-time American traveler. “We need your people [foreign tourists] to come back,” she added.
So far, even longtime passengers say there has been a noticeable shift in the mood at Dubai International, which has been the world’s busiest airport for international passenger traffic for 12 consecutive years.
Samina, a South Asian NGO worker who travels between South Asia, the Gulf and North America, said the change was particularly noticeable in her most recent trips over the two months.
“Coming in, it’s empty,” she said of Terminal 3, home of Emirates Airlines. “Terminal 1 and 2 are ghost towns,” she said of the buildings that are home to other international carriers and FlyDubai, the UAE’s budget airline.
She said international airlines suspending flights to the region have definitely taken a toll on traffic, “Every time you get in, it’s all the same transit passengers.”
According to Dubai Airports, only 51 out of 90 airlines have resumed their operations at the airport, with European and US airlines facing difficulties securing insurance cover due to government travel advisories
‘Ethos of Dubai was shaken’
For its part, Dubai is working hard to support and reassure its residents. Travelling around the city, there is an abundance of UAE flags outside homes and businesses and on digital signs and billboards along the highways.
At the City Walk shopping center there are massive electronic signs thanking UAE residents in Arabic and English. Pictures of UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan are emblazoned along major roads with the statement: May our nation remain in God’s protection”. Other signs show Emirati families saluting the flag with the same words.
However, longtime residents and business owners say the impact of the intercepted missiles and drones was felt almost immediate.
Tatiana, a Russian national who runs a logistics company for businesses looking to setup shop in the Gulf, and she said even she was shocked at how quickly the mood shifted for existing and prospective businesses. “Within the first two weeks people [said] it’s no longer worth [living here]. They weren’t scared per se, they just felt like it’s no longer worth it”.
“Businesses were suddenly liquidating their assets.” She said her family was now looking at options in Europe to gradually shift to.
Antoine, an editor who helps train amateur writers said one of his clients who works at an advertising agency was left with the burden of those liquidations. “She was in charge of finding 1,000 workers in the UAE to let go of,” he said. Antoine was particularly struck by the fact that even an advertising firm would be so immediately impacted.
“You’d think advertising would be a war-proof industry,” he said. Tatiana said her work has been particularly affected by the attacks. “Our whole business is predicated on assuring people that the UAE is a safe, convenient place to do business,” she said.
Her statement is almost identical to what Arjun, one of the 3.5 to 4.3 million Indian residents of the UAE, said outside a late evening screening of the Michael Jackson biopic. Arjun said he was happy to see the screening at near capacity, hoping it was a sign of a gradual return to normal. “The entire ethos of Dubai as this place free from conflict was shaken,” he said.
China Wants Iran War End, Pushes ‘Immediate’ Hormuz Reopening During Araghchi Visit Ahead Of Trump-Xi Summit
Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi is currently in Beijing meeting with his Chinese counterpart, FM Wang Yi, and the timing of the visit sends a resounding message to Washington and the West. The highly anticipated Trump-Xi meeting is still scheduled for next week, expected for May 14-15, though there has been ample speculation the ongoing events of the unpredictable Iran war and Hormuz Strait crisis could derail the trip at the last minute.
Of course, Iran and the question of peace will be high on the agenda as Trump visits – and currently it seems the White House is desperate to set in place some kind of final offramp, given the Tuesday night ‘pause’ in Project Freedom operations in the Gulf.
Upon the occasion of Araghchi’s visit, Foreign Minister Wang has taken the opportunity to again call for the immediate opening of the strait. And the Iranian top diplomat seconded this at a moment the US Navy has imposed an effective blockade of Iranian ports, which of course severely impacts Iranian oil going to China. “Currently, it is possible to resolve the issue of reopening the Strait of Hormuz as soon as possible,” Xinhua quoted Araghchi as saying.
Wang during the meeting also called for a “comprehensive ceasefire,” saying his country is deeply distressed by the war. Xinhua further quoted him as saying:
“The international community shares a common concern for restoring normal and safe passage through the Strait, and China hopes the relevant parties will respond as quickly as possible to the strong calls from the international community.”
The two sides are clearly coordinating their messaging to some degree, given Wang also expressed that China “appreciates Iran’s pledge to not develop nuclear weapons.”
Tehran has for years insisted its program is only for peaceful nuclear energy development and for domestic needs, but has amid Trump’s Operation Epic Fury made clear it will never given up its right to enriched uranium. It has said this is as “sacred as the soil” and sees it as a matter of national sovereignty. This in the face of US demands that it transfer all nuclear material out of the country.
“We believe that a comprehensive ceasefire brooks no delay, a resumption of hostilities is inadvisable, and persisting with negotiations is particularly important,” Wang told Araghchi at the start of their meeting, according to footage released by Hong Kong-based Phoenix TV.
…Earlier, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio urged China to press Iran to ease its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas passes.
As for what China gains in this high-level diplomacy and engagement with Tehran at a moment it could face more US and Israeli bombs, Associated Press presents the following:
Some noted that the Iranian foreign minister visited at Beijing’s initiative. “It’s China exercising their leverage… to summon the Iranian foreign minister,” said Hoo Tiang Boon, a professor of Chinese foreign policy at Nanyang Technological University.
“By holding the talks with the Iranians, you can’t fault for them not putting in any effort,” Hoo said.
As for some further specifics to come out of the Araghchi-Wang meeting, Iran “expressed appreciation for China’s four-point proposal” – according to a readout in semi-official Iranian Students’ News Agency (ISNA).
Hilarious that the message Rubio is asking China to give Iran during Araghchi’s Beijing visit is that Iran is “globally isolated” when the very fact he’s invited to China (and that China is now fighting US sanctions on Iran’s oil) proves they aren’t.pic.twitter.com/UUGmfrL2d1
“Iran supports the formation of a new framework for the post-war period in the region” the readout adds. As for the ‘four points’ – these were issued by Beijing earlier in the conflict and are quite broad. These official points are featured below in their entirety, via Chinese state sources:
Stay committed to the principle of peaceful coexistence. The Gulf states in the Middle East are close neighbours that cannot move away. It’s important to support the Gulf states in improving their ties, work to build a common, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable security architecture of the Middle East and the Gulf region, and consolidate the foundation for peaceful coexistence.
Stay committed to the principle of national sovereignty. Sovereignty serves as a foundation for all countries, especially developing countries, to survive and thrive, and it must not be violated.
Stay committed to the principle of international rule of law. We should safeguard the authority of international rule of law, reject selective application, and prevent the world from returning to the law of the jungle. It is important to firmly uphold the international system with the United Nations at its core, the international order based on international law, and the basic norms governing international relations underpinned by the purposes and principles of the UN Charter.
Stay committed to a balanced approach to development and security. Security is a prerequisite for development and development serves as a safeguard of security.
If negotiations between the US and Iran don’t proceed, and if they stay at ‘square one’, this could weaken any big leverage President Trump hopes to have entering his meeting with Xi Jinping. This is perhaps why American officials are scrambling to cobble something together, to at least cite progress toward resolving the Hormuz situation. Still Trump has insisted he has “all the cards” when it comes to Iran.
President Trump has slammed ABC News chief Washington correspondent Jonathan Karl for what he calls outright dishonest reporting after Karl inserted himself into the story of the latest assassination attempt on the president.
Karl appeared on ABC’s This Week shortly afterward and claimed Trump had reached out to him personally. “My phone rang shortly after 7 a.m., my landline, George actually. A number that few people call and it was President Trump calling,” Karl told host George Stephanopoulos.
Karl further claimed that Trump “said at first he was calling to see if I was okay with what happened last night. ‘Are you OK?’ And then he reiterated many of the things he said in his press conference last night emphasizing the unity that he felt in that moment that he felt at the dinner before the shooting and certainly after with people who reached out to him… And he was quite firm about this: That dinner must be rescheduled.”
NEWS: President Trump BLAST ABC News’ Jonathan Karl: “Jonathan Karl, of ABC Fake News, made a statement that I called him early in the morning, the day after the assassination attempt, to ask whether or not HE was OK. No, this was a hit on ME, not HIM, and I didn’t make such a… pic.twitter.com/Xh9chkU2S2
This week, Trump responded directly on Truth Social, blasting the claim as pure fabrication designed to center Karl rather than the president who had just survived another attempt on his life.
“Jonathan Karl, of ABC Fake News, made a statement that I called him early in the morning, the day after the assassination attempt, to ask whether or not HE was OK. No, this was a hit on ME, not HIM, and I didn’t make such a call, why would I do that?” Trump remarked.
The president added, “He called me, but I didn’t take his call — He just confirmed that to me when he called again. I would say that’s very dishonest reporting. He’s trying to make himself look important but, I’m not surprised, because it comes from ABC Fake News!”
This appears to be somewhat deranged behavior from a legacy media figure desperate to remain relevant. Instead of focusing on the security failures, the gunman’s motives, or the president’s resolve, Karl turned the story into a narcissistic fantasy about himself – the brave reporter Trump supposedly felt compelled to check on at 7 a.m. the morning after an attack aimed squarely at the commander-in-chief.
This latest episode fits a long pattern of tension between Trump and ABC News. Readers will recall our earlier coverage of Trump calling out Karl and other ABC figures for biased and obnoxious questioning.
Trump also torched an obnoxious ABC fake news reporter over misleading boat strike video:
And of course, ABC was forced to pay out a massive $15 million settlement last year after falsely calling Trump a rapist:
The derangement doesn’t stop with the press. In a related development that perfectly captures the upside-down priorities in Washington, a D.C. judge has now apologized to the alleged assassin himself over his treatment in custody.
U.S. Magistrate Judge Zia Faruqui expressed “grave concerns” about conditions at the D.C. jail, including solitary confinement and suicide watch protocols for Cole Allen, telling the suspect directly he was “very troubled” by the reported treatment.
While security for Trump and the public remains under scrutiny after multiple attempts on the president’s life, the system bends over backward to ensure the accused gunman feels comfortable.
This is the same media and institutional class that spent years demonizing Trump, only to now feign shock when violence follows their rhetoric.
The fake news machine keeps exposing itself, and each time it does, trust in legacy outlets like ABC erodes further.
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WTI Holds Rebound Gains As US Fuel Exports Hit Record High, Production Dips, Huge SPR Drain
Oil prices are lower overnight (but dramatically off their lows) amid on-again, off-again optimism of an imminent US-Iran peace deal.
Benchmark Brent fell as much as 12% to $96.75 a barrel in London, while West Texas Intermediate dropped up to 13%. European natural gas plunged as much as 14%.
Oil and gas later pared about half of those losses after Trump said in a Truth Social post on Wednesday that if Iran doesn’t agree, “the bombing starts.”
Overnight we saw huge across the board drawdowns in US energy inventories reported by API (and a huge SPR drain). All eyes on the official data this morning…
API
Crude -8.1mm (-2.8mm exp)
Cushing -1mm
Gasoline -6.1mm
Distillates -4.6mm
DOE
Crude -2.313mm (-2.8mm exp)
Cushing -648k
Gasoline -2.504mm
Distillates -1.294mm
For the second week in a row, US inventories saw significant declines across the board with products seeing the biggest draws. Crude’s drawdown was a modest disappointment (especially after API’s big report)…
Source: Bloomberg
Overall, crude stockpiles remain elevated (but are drawing down)…
Source: Bloomberg
Perhaps most notably, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is seeing massive drawdowns to support the global loss of supply from Hormuz.
Source: Bloomberg
On the back of that draw, Bloomberg’s energy guru, Javier Blas, dropped this stunning chart showing that, on a 7-day moving average, global oil liftings (into tankers) have recovered to their pre-war level due to a surge in liftings in the Americas. Of course, that’s helped by massive stock drawdowns / SPR drain, but still…
Additionally, last week saw US crude exports actually decline (after nearing the unprecedented level of 100 million barrels in 7 days). The decline in crude cargoes headed overseas pulled down overall US oil and fuels exports from record high levels also set the week earlier, even as fuel exports rose to the highest weekly level ever.
Source: Bloomberg
The US has sent out at least 1.5 million barrels of diesel a day since the week of April 3.
US crude production continued to trend lower…
Source: Bloomberg
WTI fell dramatically below $100 overnight but amid Trump’s ‘bombastic’ comments and Iranian denials, pries are well off their lows
“The oil price is reacting on shift in sentiment instead of market balances, driven by news of a potential deal between the US and Iran,” said Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS Group AG in Zurich.
“It remains unclear when flow through the strait would resume.”
Still, any breakthrough in peace talks will take much longer to filter through to energy markets.
“When the Strait opens we do believe it will take half a year for oil to get back to normal,” Equinor Chief Financial Officer Torgrim Reitan said on the company’s quarterly earnings conference call.
“For gas, it will take much longer.”
And that’s important for the Midterms…
The 4-week moving average for US gasoline implied demand ticked higher week-on-week, but the more volatile weekly data showed a weekly decline and dipped below the 5-year average.
It is too early to tell, but elevated gasoline prices could be finally eating into demand.
Trump has repeatedly claimed prices will come down rapidly once the Strait is reopened – we shall see.
UBS Says Transport Stock Rout Is “Overdone” After Amazon News
UBS senior analyst Tom Wadewitz, who covers freight transportation, told clients that Amazon’s latest push to open its supply chain network to businesses beyond its own marketplace triggered an “overdone” sell-off in transport names, including UPS, FedEx, and C.H. Robinson.
Wadewitz said the risk is not new, noting that Amazon’s supply chain service has been around since 2023. He said the pullback has created attractive entry points in select transport stocks, particularly UPS, FedEx, and C.H. Robinson.
“While we view AMZN’s strategy of selling transportation services as a negative for transports generally, it is not a new risk and the supply chain service is also not new. We believe the significant sell-off in transport names was overdone,” Wadewitz said.
The main risk is in B2B parcel, Wadewitz said, adding that Amazon’s growing third-party shipping ambitions could pressure UPS and FedEx over the medium term.
However, he said the threat is not a surprise, since Amazon has been active in parcel delivery for years. He also noted that there is limited near-term risk in international express because Amazon’s air fleet is mostly domestic narrow-body aircraft.
The immediate market reaction in transport stocks, including UPS, FedEx, and C.H. Robinson, to Amazon’s news was a roughly 10% drop at the start of the week. Some of those losses had been recovered by mid-week.
Wadewitz explained to clients why the “pullback creates attractive entry points for UPS, FDX, and CHRW” …
We believe the cost reduction and network efficiency initiatives of UPS and FDX support margin improvement and EPS growth on a multi-year basis. While AMZN’s focus on growing in transport markets is a risk, we also don’t view it as a new risk.
In our view, investors already assume that the addressable domestic parcel market for UPS and FDX is a slow growth market (eg in part due to impact of AMZN).
We view the ~10% pullbacks in UPS and FDX as providing attractive entry points.
With respect to CHRW, we do not expect AMZN’s supply chain initiative to have a noticeable impact on the brokerage market which is already a highly competitive market. We expect the combination of an upcycle in truckload pricing and acceleration in labor productivity for CHRW in 2H26 to support attractive EPS growth and support upside for the stock. We would also recommend buying CHRW on the pullback in the stock.
