U.S. equity futures took another leg lower, the VIX spiked to 36, Treasury yields slipped (UST10Y <4%), crypto tumbled, and the dollar reversed its European session gains—just after 06:00 ET—when China hit back at President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff blitz.

Beijing retaliates:

China to impose additional 34% tariffs on **all** imported U.S. products starting April 10, the official Xinhua news agency reports.

— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) April 4, 2025

According to state-run Xinhua, Beijing announced it would slap 34% retaliatory tariffs on all U.S. imports starting April 10. Details were scarce at the moment. 

“Chinese authorities said they will start a probe into medical CT X-ray tubes imported from the US and India, and halt imports of poultry products from two American companies,” Bloomberg noted. 

Xinhua also reported that Beijing announced export control measures on certain rare earth-related items but did not provide specifics.

China announces export control measures on certain rare earth-related items pic.twitter.com/HBW2ahcjv1

— China Xinhua News (@XHNews) April 4, 2025

The move comes two days after Trump’s tariff-a-palooza pushed the effective U.S. tariff rate on Chinese goods to 54%.

Deutsche Bank’s George Saravelos noted on Thursday that the big negative surprise this week has been the 50%+ tariff rate on China (far worse than expectations) and the key connector economy Vietnam, which affected $600bn worth of manufactured goods to the U.S. combined.

Goldman helped clients visualize this move. 

On Thursday, Beijing condemned the escalating tariff war, calling it “unilateral bullying. ” It added that it “firmly opposes” the tariff war and “will resolutely take countermeasures to safeguard its own rights and interests.”

And here we are—risk assets getting hammered again on a Friday morning—as tensions between Washington and Beijing escalate sharply to end the week. Both superpowers remain locked in a stalemate over China’s subsidization of fentanyl precursor chemicals to Mexico, which has fueled the overdose death crisis in the United States. 

Stay on top of the tariff war:

• The Only Chart That Matters… Global Impact Of Trump Tariffs Will Be Determined By Beijing

• “Reign Of Tariffs” Begins: All You Need To Know About Trump’s “Reciprocal” Trade War

• Beijing Slams Trump’s “Unilateral Bullying” Tariffs, Signals Retaliatory Action

In markets, main US equity futures indexes were hammered lower after China retaliated. 

A lot more red. 

UST10Y <4%.

Implied interest rate cuts top 4.5 for the year. 

Bitcoin tumbles.

Dollar loses steam after European surge. 

And Yuan weaker.

*Developing…  

Via The Cradle

The Russian Foreign Ministry warned on Thursday that US threats of attack against Iran are “unacceptable” and could result in a “catastrophe”.

“The use of military force by Iran’s opponents in the context of the settlement is illegal and unacceptable. Threats from outside to bomb Iran’s nuclear infrastructure facilities will inevitably lead to an irreversible global catastrophe. These threats are simply unacceptable,” Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said. 

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov also told Life magazine that the “consequences of this, especially if there are strikes on the nuclear infrastructure, could be catastrophic for the entire region.”

Russia and the US have recently held talks on ending the war in Ukraine. Ryabkov said these talks have not resulted in a breakthrough. 

Regarding tension between Tehran and Washington, Ryabkov said Russia “condemns US threats.” The Russian Foreign Ministry comes after US President Donald Trump renewed his threat to attack Iranian nuclear facilities. 

“If they don’t make a deal, there will be bombing. But there’s a chance that if they don’t make a deal, that I will do secondary tariffs on them like I did four years ago,” the president said on Sunday. Iran issued a formal complaint to the UN Security Council and said it would respond to any threat.

Trump had sent a letter to Iranian leadership in early March, threatening an attack if Tehran did not come to the negotiating table. Iranian officials said they would not negotiate under threats and economic sanctions, which Trump has imposed with full force as part of his “maximum pressure” policy. 

This week, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran has officially responded to Trump’s letter signaling a willingness for indirect talks, which the US is reportedly considering. 

However, Washington is simultaneously beefing up its forces in the region in preparation for a potential attack. This follows several reports over the past two months that Israel is planning to strike at the Iranian nuclear program. 

Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Majid Takht Ravachi held talks on the nuclear issue with Ryabkov on Wednesday. 

“The sides stressed the illegality and inadmissibility of the use of military force by Iran’s opponents to resolve disagreements and the unacceptability of threats from the outside to bomb Iran’s nuclear energy infrastructure, as this will inevitably lead to large-scale and irreversible radiological and humanitarian consequences for the entire Middle East region and the world as a whole,” the Russian Foreign Ministry said. 

Satellite imagery from earlier today by @IndoPacWatch shows 6 B-2 “Spirit” Long-Range Strategic Stealth Bombers with the 509th Bomb Wing, on the tarmac at Naval Support Facility Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, a little more than 2,000 miles away from Iran. pic.twitter.com/divXs4o9kb

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) April 1, 2025

China, Russia, and Iran released a joint statement on March 14 demanding an end to “unlawful” US sanctions against the Islamic Republic after meetings in Beijing between the three countries. 

Tehran insists that its nuclear program is entirely peaceful, in line with a religious fatwa against weapons of mass destruction, as well as the fact that it is a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).

Poland unveiled this week that it has signed a new defense deal with the United States valued at nearly $2 billion. This is for more Patriot air defense systems and expanded logistical support.

“The safety of Polish skies has no price,” Deputy Prime Minister of Poland Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz told a news briefing while discussing missile defense cooperation with Washington.

“Poland’s defense ministry said implementing the agreement would enable the operational readiness of Patriot launchers, which form the foundation of the Wisla program,” one international report says. “It aims to counter, among other things, short-range tactical ballistic missiles, including maneuvering missiles.”

Under the same program, the NATO eastern flank country acquired its first two Patriot system batteries in 2018. The Trump administration has praised Poland for being among NATO’s top spenders in terms of GDP.

Polish President Andrzej Duda has sought to fix a standard of defense spending of at least 4% of GDP, and even have it enshrined in the nation’s constitution. Poland plans to spend 4.7% of GDP on defense this year, which is the highest in the NATO alliance.

“Poland is a model NATO ally and a leader in advanced air and missile defense,” said US chargé d’affaires Daniel Lawton while attending a signing ceremony at the military base in Sochaczew. The event was also attended by Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk. 

Lawton added, “We are proud to celebrate another step in US-Polish defense cooperation – strengthening NATO’s eastern flank and deepening our strategic partnership.”

Poland is now the only country in the world other than the US to possess the US Army’s newest Patriot batteries with the integrated air and missile defense battle command system (IBCS).

Meanwhile, Tusk has sent a message to US President Donald Trump on the newly unveiled tariffs, including a 20% rate for the EU… “America could and always can count on Poland,” Tusk said in English. “You have only friends here. And I can say the same thing about Europe as a whole.”

Mr. President @realDonaldTrump, cooperation is always better than confrontation. pic.twitter.com/EFtXj51rGC

— Donald Tusk (@donaldtusk) March 31, 2025

“In our common European-American interest are a strong US, a strong European Union and a strong NATO, not weaker,” he added. “Think about it, Mr President and dear American friends before you decide to impose tariffs against your closest allies. Cooperation is always better than confrontation.”

Via Remix news,

As Polish presidential elections near and the term of current President Andrzej Duda comes to an end, the head of state gave an interview to Telewizja Trwam and Radio Maryja. During the segment, Duda covered many topics, including the Sejm’s new so-called hate speech law, which he said he would not sign, saying it is built on lies about “well-established” concepts. 

The president also called out the left for being hypocritical. 

According to wPolityce, Duda said it is very characteristic that these left-liberal trends, which shout so loudly about tolerance and diversity, are the first to block free speech,” defining language “as they wish” while also “punishing any deviation” from what they say is correct.  

“This is an ongoing attempt to build a world, a language, on lies, on giving new meaning to concepts that are established,” Duda told the show. 

Claiming Poland is still a fully democratic country upholding the will of the majority, despite many being afraid of certain developments around them, Duda still cautioned against an erosion of democratic norms. He specifically cited St. John Paul II, who warned that democracy without values ​​easily turns into open or camouflaged totalitarianism.

“We have clear and obvious examples of the deception that the current situation in Poland brings us, especially the media situation – manipulation, lies, silence, giving new meaning to words, denying events that took place (…). We must firmly defend ourselves against this and I hope that society will be able to defend itself against this at the ballot box, while expressing its real expectations,” he said. 

On his party’s (PiS) proposed judicial reform, Duda blamed its failure on those who have “enormous influence” at home and abroad.

“These people are very often people who smoothly transitioned from the communist system and from being members of the communist party, very quickly whitewashed themselves, painted themselves in other colors and started pretending to be great democrats. Before, they served the communists, and then they started pretending to be great libertarians,” he said. 

On the federalization of the European Union, Duda told listeners that “nation states must be preserved, the EU should be a union of nation states. All cultural and identity traditions in nation states should be respected and recognized within the framework of diversity that they talk about, and which in this case they are trying to absolutely deny, forcing us into one uniform as in the most negatively associated communist regimes.”

Duda made a “farewell visit” to Italy last week, during which Italian PM Georgia Meloni gave him a copy of the Italian Anthem to signify “the profound historical bond that has united the histories of our nations.”

“I wanted to reiterate the importance of bilateral relations and the continuous strengthening of economic and cultural ties between Italy and Poland,” Meloni posted on X.

Oggi, a Palazzo Chigi, ho avuto l’onore di accogliere il Presidente della Repubblica di Polonia, @AndrzejDuda, nell’ambito della sua visita di commiato in Italia, in vista del termine del suo mandato. Durante il nostro incontro, ho voluto ribadire l’importanza dei rapporti… pic.twitter.com/92TDGmpzLL

— Giorgia Meloni (@GiorgiaMeloni) March 28, 2025

Read more here…

An EU country and founding member of the International Criminal Court (ICC) has withdrawn from the court in an unprecedented move on Thursday.

Hungary is withdrawing from the ICC, the Viktor Orban government has announced, hours after Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu arrived in the country for a state visit. Orban while standing alongside Netanyahu for a press conference called The Hague-based court a “political tool”. Hungary has refused to enforce the ICC arrest warrant against the Israeli prime minister.

“This very important court has been diminished to a political tool and Hungary wishes to play no role in it,” Orban told reporters.

The ICC had already condemned Orban’s willingness to invite the Israeli leader for a state visit, despite the arrest warrant issued by The Hague last year. It marks only Netanyahu’s second foreign trip since the warrant was issued, with the first being to Washington.

The court has charged Netanyahu with war crimes in Gaza. Israel has slammed the court’s ruling as ‘anti-Semitic’ and politically motivated, and has rejected it.

Netanyahu on Thursday praised Hungary for its “proud” support for Israel. “This is important not just for us, but for all democracies… it’s important to stand up to this corrupt organization.” The Israeli PM said he expects more countries to eventually follow Budapest’s lead.

Last November, when Budapest first unveiled the formal state invitation, Orban dismissed the ICC’s arrest warrant as “shameful” and “absurd”.

It should be noted that Hungary had also long ago declared it would never arrest Russian president Vladimir Putin should he visit the country. The conservative populist Hungarian leader had further accused The Hague of “interfering in an ongoing conflict for political purposes” – in reference to Israel’s Gaza operations.

ICC court spokesman Fadi El Abdallah in a Wednesday statement said that it is not for parties to the ICC “to unilaterally determine the soundness of the Court’s legal decisions.” 

“Any dispute concerning the judicial functions of the Court shall be settled by the decision of the Court,” he said, asserting that member nations have an obligation to carry out the rulings of the court.

Orban: welcome to the safest place in Europe…

🇭🇺🇮🇱 Prime Minister @netanyahu in Budapest, the safest place in Europe. Welcome to Hungary, Prime Minister! pic.twitter.com/GI1cjGj6X1

— Orbán Viktor (@PM_ViktorOrban) April 3, 2025

Days ago Israel’s military once again ordered the evacuation of Rafah, and emerging reports say that in Gaza City food and water are becoming scarce. Netanyahu has vowed, despite an avalanche of international criticism, to pursue Hamas until the group is eradicated and can no longer attempt to assert its rule over Gaza.

Gaza health authorities say that over 1,000 Palestinians have died since the ceasefire collapsed last month. This brings the official number of deaths to over 50,000 since Oct.7, 2023. However, Israel has disputed these figures, and has claimed that tens of thousands of the casualties are actually Hamas fighters.

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

TIME Magazine is facing backlash for declaring that the conviction of French populist politician Marine Le Pen on a trumped up bureaucratic charge “was a good day for French democracy.” 

Yes, really.

Apparently banning a front running candidate from running for office for five years and handing her a prison sentence is “good for democracy.”

It was a good day for French democracy but the far-right may still win the 2027 presidential election, writes Cole Stanglerhttps://t.co/vlexFV9Ltg

— TIME (@TIME) April 1, 2025

As we highlighted yesterday, this is happening all over Europe in what many are describing as a coordinated globalist effort to prevent more nationalist candidates from being elected.

Le Pen will serve two of the four year prison sentence qunder house arrest with an ankle bracelet monitor.

Why 2 years of house arrest? Is there a risk she might steal a car? The only plausible explanation is that it is to prevent her campaigning for whoever is the RN’s candidate in the next elections.

— Pascal-Emmanuel Gobry (@pegobry_en) March 31, 2025

Democracy does not include imprisoning the likely winner, you drooling fucking morons.

— JWF (@JammieWF) April 1, 2025

Define democracy, @TIME

— Rug art (@eratosthenes121) April 1, 2025

Democracy now means putting your political opponents in jail worldwide.

— JaknTea (@JaknTea) April 1, 2025

Removing candidates from running is totally a good day for democracy.

— Harry Flashman (@KamalaGrapple) April 1, 2025

How is it good for democracy to imprison popular opposition?

— pushfade (@pushfader) April 1, 2025

Putting your political opponents in jail before an election is *not* repeat *not* a “good day for democracy”. Its quite the opposite, actually.

— Its A Dry Heat (@Its_a_dryheat) April 1, 2025

Le Pen may still yet find a way to run given that the Paris Court of Appeal said it will look to decide whether to uphold or scrap the ban on her from elections by next year.

“The Paris Court of Appeal confirms having received today three appeals filed against the decision rendered on March 31, 2025, by the Paris judicial court in the case of the parliamentary assistants of the National Front. It will examine this file within a time frame which should allow a decision to be rendered in the summer of 2026,” the court said, according to Le Figaro.

In response, Le Pen said it was “very good news,” but that she intends to challenge the ruling in any way possible, including France’s Constitutional Council and the European Court of Human Rights.

“I will use all possible avenues of appeal. I won’t let it happen,” she told Le Parisien.

She has further contended that the court’s decision to impose a ban on her pursuing office while her appeal is ongoing undermines the rule of law, asserting that individuals in the appeal process are generally granted the presumption of innocence, and thus, implementing the ban at this stage disregards established legal norms.

Current polling suggests that Le Pen is almost certain to win if she runs in 2027.

*  *  *

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

It’ll therefore either have to accept a lopsided one or prepare for a major war that it might lose.

Iranian-US tensions are boiling after Trump threatened to bomb Iran following its rejection of direct talks over a new nuclear deal. He also ordered the Pentagon to move six B-2 stealth bombers, which CNN assessed to be a full 30% of the US’ stealth bomber fleet, to the Indian Ocean island of Diego Garcia. The Iranian Supreme Leader responded by promising strong retaliation if the US attacks while one of his chief advisors warned that their country would then have “no choice” but to build nukes if that happens.

Although the US Intelligence Community’s latest Annual Threat Assessment claimed that “Iran is not building a nuclear weapon”, there have been long-standing concerns that it could quickly do so if the decision is made due to its nuclear program allegedly have a rapid breakout potential. This makes it no different in principle than Japan’s, which could begin churning out nukes in a matter of months, but neither the US nor its regional allies consider Japan to be a threat, unlike how they view Iran.

The US’ renewed bombing campaign against Iran’s Houthi allies in Yemen might have been partially intended to send a message to the Islamic Republic aimed at getting it to enter direct talks over this issue by signaling that Trump 2.0 does indeed have the political will to initiate military action if it refuses. Despite Iran’s recent rejection of his demand, Trump might still hold off on this for now due to the likelihood that Iran could inflict unacceptable retaliatory damage to the US’ regional bases and allies.

Furthermore, diplomacy hasn’t yet been exhausted since Iran didn’t reject indirect talks of the kind that Russia offered to mediate after reportedly being asked by the US to do so, which was discussed here. Therefore, it would be premature for the US to seriously consider bombing Iran at this time, yet that option isn’t off the table if indirect talks fail to reach a deal. Iran lacks the leverage for a fair deal with the US, however, so it’ll either have to accept a lopsided one or prepare for a major war that it might lose.

Iran is a proud civilization-state that’s loath to subordinate itself to anyone, hence the difficulty in getting it to agree to drastic curbs on its nuclear energy program that would enshrine its status as a second-class country in this regard, all while abandoning any chance of nuclear weapons in the future. From Iran’s perspective, this could embolden Israel into one day launching a large-scale conventional or even nuclear war against it, which Iran believes has only hitherto been deterred by dangling this Damocles’ sword.

That said, while Iran could inflict unacceptable retaliatory damage to the US’ regional bases and allies (first of all Israel) if it’s attacked over its refusal to agree to a Russian-mediated lopsided deal, it cannot inflict such damage to the US’ nuclear triad and would thus likely be destroyed. Iran couldn’t count on Russia intervening to help it either since their newly updated strategic partnership doesn’t include mutual defense obligations and Moscow doesn’t want war with Washington or West Jerusalem.

Even though the US could survive a major war with Iran, it still prefers to avoid one. So long as the US’ demands remain limited to drastically curbing Iran’s nuclear energy program and don’t expand to include curbs on its support for regional allies or its ballistic missile program, then creative diplomacy could prevail. For that to happen, Russia would have to devise a set of incentives for Iran that the US approves of and Iran then agrees to, but that’s still a far way off and Trump might strike first if he loses patience.

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

President Donald Trump’s pardon for people convicted of charges related to the Jan. 6, 2021, breach of the U.S. Capitol does not extend to crimes “only connected to January 6 by the happenstance that it was uncovered during investigation of the unrelated January 6 offenses,” a federal appeals court ruled on April 2.

A divided panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit upheld a lower court ruling that rejected arguments from Dan Wilson, a Jan. 6 defendant who said that Trump’s relief should cover firearm convictions that stemmed from a search conducted as part of the probe into his actions on Jan. 6, 2021.

Trump on Jan. 20, when he took office for his second term, pardoned people for crimes “relating to the events at or near the United States Capitol on January 6, 2021.”

“That language plainly applies to related offenses,” Circuit Judges Cornelia T.L. Pillard and Gregory G. Katsas said on Wednesday, in denying Wilson’s motion for release pending appeal.

Circuit Judge Neomi Rao, the third judge on the panel, dissented.

“Wilson’s appeal presents exceptional circumstances. He raises a novel question implicating the scope of the pardon power, which is vested exclusively in the President,” Rao said.

She noted that Trump issued the pardon but tasked the attorney general with administering and effectuating it by issuing certificates to relevant people. The U.S. Department of Justice has said in court filings that the pardon does cover Wilson’s firearm convictions.

“Wilson’s certificate merely repeats the language of the blanket pardon and does not specifically list his firearm convictions,” Rao said. “But nothing seems to preclude a new certificate from being issued that clarifies the scope of Wilson’s pardon. Because it is unlikely that the issuance of a certificate of pardon is judicially reviewable, there is at least a ’substantial question’ whether we should defer to the Department of Justice when it claims the certificate it has issued applies to Wilson’s firearms convictions.”

The majority said in response that they were reviewing the scope of the pardon, not its validity.

“The pardon does not cover offenses wholly independent of events at the Capitol on January 6, even if uncovered during investigation of January 6 offenses,” they said.

“What matters is the relationship between the offenses. Wilson’s Kentucky firearm offenses are not ‘offenses related to events that occurred’ at the Capitol on January 6. They occurred at a different time and place, and the elements of these offenses—possession of an unlicensed firearm and the possession of firearms by a prohibited person—bear no relationship to conduct that occurred at the Capitol on January 6. Thus, by the plain terms of the Pardon, they are not covered.”

George Pallas, an attorney representing Wilson, told The Epoch Times in an email that “Illegal gang members from El Salvador have better luck than J6ers do in the DC courts.” He was referring to recent rulings blocking the Trump administration from deporting Tren de Aragua members and suspected members under Trump’s Alien Enemies Act declaration.

Wilson had been released shortly after Trump signed the proclamation, but Department of Justice officials later said he should have been kept in custody because the firearms crimes were not covered by Trump’s pardon.

Several weeks later, officials told the federal court in Washington that they were now of the view that the pardon did cover the crimes.

U.S. District Judge Dabney L. Friedrich ruled in March that the convictions, which came in Kentucky after a search of Wilson’s home, were not covered by the pardon.

Friedrich said that Trump can still pardon Wilson for unrelated convictions but that he has not yet.

Pallas told The Epoch Times in an email after that ruling that Friedrich missed the point because “President Trump is in the courtroom speaking through his surrogate, the prosecutor.”

A different judge, at around the same time, declined to vacate the convictions of Edward Kelley, another Jan. 6 defendant who offered similar arguments against conspiracy and threat charges. Kelley has not appealed that ruling.

Also on Wednesday, a federal judge in Florida agreed to dismiss the convictions of another Jan. 6 defendant, Jeremy Brown, who was convicted of grenade and firearm possession in 2023. The judge overseeing the case cited how the Department of Justice moved to throw out the charges, referencing the pardon.

The Israeli military (IDF) has expanded its Gaza operations over the last 24 hours, and has announced a new focus on establishing a “security zone” in an around the southern city of Rafah.

The push into Rafah is intended to dismantle all remaining Hamas infrastructure and command activity, given the city is seen as the group’s last main stronghold in the Gaza Strip.

This has unleashed a new wave of mass displacement, with reports of hundreds of thousands fleeing the city amid the assault. The enclave for more than the last year been even more crowded, given it has served as a last place of refuge for the displaced from northern and central Gaza.

IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir visited Gaza this week, delivering the following message of intensified operations to get back all of the remaining hostages:

During the visit, Zamir addressed troops near Rafah, stating that the Israel Defense Forces are intensifying their offensive at a deliberate and determined pace. He emphasized that the military effort would continue until all Israeli hostages are returned and declared the mission far from over.

Gaza’s Hamas-run health ministry has announced at least 97 people killed in Israeli strikes from Wednesday into Thursday, including at least 20 killed in a dawn airstrike on a suburb of Gaza City.

According to a Palestinian eyewitness of the stepped up assault who spoke to Reuters:

Rafah “is gone, it is being wiped out,” a father of seven among the hundreds of thousands who had fled from Rafah to neighboring Khan Younis, told Reuters via a chat app.

“They are knocking down what is left standing of houses and property,” said the man who declined to be identified for fear of repercussions.

A ground assault on eastern Gaza City is also reported to be ongoing. This week has seen the heaviest escalation of the ground and aerial assault since the ceasefire collapsed last month.

Meanwhile controversy and international outraged has continued over the recent killings of a group of Palestinian emergency responders:

The Israeli military killed 15 medics and emergency workers in southern Gaza and buried the bodies with their ambulances and rescue vehicles last month.

Dr Ahmed al-Farra, director of pediatrics at Al-Tahreer Maternity Hospital in southern Khan Younis, saw the bodies coming into the medical facility after they were recovered a week later. He said Israeli soldiers would have easily seen they were targeting medics when they opened fire.

“The skies are filled with their planes, they can see a needle on the ground. So they could easily distinguish ambulances,” al-Farra told Al Jazeera.

“When the bodies came to the hospital, they were nearly decomposed. It had been around seven to eight days since the medics were executed. I saw three of them had their hands tied behind their backs.”

Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad have continued lobbing rockets on southern Israel, with a new round launched on Thursday. Warning sirens have returned to becoming a regular feature of life in Israeli towns and cities in the south and central of the country.

⚡️Nonstop Israeli strikes across Gaza pic.twitter.com/FZhk636IxG

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) April 3, 2025

The wartime situation is set to continue for the foreseeable future, given new IDF spokesman, Brig. Gen. Effie Defrin, declared Thursday that the military has entered “a new stage” of the fight against Hamas. “The plan serves the goals of the war, returning the hostages and destroying Hamas’s military and governing capabilities,” he said.

The IDF is maintaining “operational ambiguity, so we can surprise the enemy and bring about significant achievements,” he said, adding that “our actions will speak”.

Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via American Greatness,

Aside from the rhetoric, there is a growing consensus among Western diplomats, military analysts, military officers, heads of state, and even much of the media about how to end the endless Ukrainian war.

A proposed peace will see a DMZ established somewhere along an adjusted 1,200-mile Ukraine-Russia border. Tough negotiations will adjudicate how far east toward its original borders Russian forces will be leveraged to backstep.

Publicly in the U.S. and covertly in Europe, all accept that a depleted Ukraine will not have the military strength to retake Crimea and the Donbas.

In 2014, both were absorbed by Russia during the Obama administration. Neither that administration nor any since has advocated a military effort to reclaim them.

Loudly, the U.S.—and again quietly Europe—concedes that Ukraine will not be in NATO—a confirmation that Russia will use to justify to its people its disastrous invasion, and even many Ukrainians will accept.

How will the West deter Putin from his inevitable agenda of reclaiming lost Soviet territory and Russian-speaking peoples? For now, his army is exhausted, its arsenals depleted, and its reputation shattered.

In the future, a commercial corridor, anchored by concessions to American and international mining concerns, will supposedly serve as a tripwire to deter Putin from attacking in-the-way noncombatant Americans.

More practically, Ukrainian forces will be kept fully armed. They have already inflicted perhaps a million causalities on Putin’s forces—possibly five times the dead, wounded, and missing that the Russians lost to the Taliban over that entire decade-long misadventure in Afghanistan.

If Trump can coax even a ceasefire, the oddly bellicose left will still rail about “Munich” and Trump as “Putin’s puppet.”

But after perhaps 1.5 million total Ukrainian and Russian dead, wounded, sick, and missing, transatlantic leftists will quietly admit they never had any realistic plan to win by fighting Russia to the last Ukrainian.

And they certainly were not willing—despite what they claimed in their spasms of braggadocio—to send U.S., U.K., European, or NATO ground troops into Eastern Ukraine.

Trump has faced criticism for his volatile, art-of-the-deal approach to Ukrainian diplomacy over the last 10 weeks.

Lost in such criticism is that the Biden administration did not even try to end the war. Instead, in the LBJ-style of “light at the end of the tunnel,” it parroted the great “spring offensive” to come. And when that gambit disastrously failed, it resorted to the banal blank check of “as long as it takes.”

Western leaders simplistically thought that sending more arms, money, and Ukrainians into the cauldron would eventually break Russia—30 times larger than Ukraine, 10 times richer, over four times more populous, and far less bothered by the mounting toll of its greater losses.

In addition, we even know the likely course of negotiations to end the slaughter.

As soon as Trump pressures Zelenskyy for a ceasefire and a rare minerals mining concession, Putin smells an advantage. So, he digs in and orders his generals to double down on terror strikes for advantage.

And then, once Trump sees that scolding Zelensky empowers Putin to back off from a ceasefire, he turns on Putin and puts far greater pressure on him: a secondary embargo on all who buy Russian oil that even the “on to Moscow” crowd had never envisioned.

Once Putin seems to agree, then Zelenskyy thinks he was had and wants a better mining deal or reconsideration of NATO or more sophisticated weapons—until Trump reminds him that the despised U.S., not his beloved Europeans, is his only route to a shaky peace.

So, we know the negotiations will have a yin and yang until there is no solution other than a ceasefire leading to a Korean-peninsula-like hot peace.

Putin always preferred to exploit the Obamas and Bidens of the world. And he did so in 2014 and 2022, rather than the mercurial, unpredictable, and ultimately dangerous Trump, during whose tenure he stayed put within his borders.

He also knows that for all the talk of his puppet Trump, the latter killed hundreds of the Wagner group, pulled out of an asymmetrical missile deal, first sent offensive weapons to Ukraine, sanctioned Russian oil and oligarchs, warned the Germans not to deal with Putin on the Nord Stream II pipeline, and bombed into extinction ISIS of Iraq, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, and Qasem Soleimani.

So, Putin knows that India, China, and others who buy his oil will not if he reneges on his willingness for a ceasefire.

If and when peace comes, we can already foresee the misinformation that will follow: Trump deserves no credit. Zelenskyy remains the true hero. A now hollowed-out Russia was the real winner.

The only mystery?

Since when did the anti-war left prefer an endless and horrific war to a difficult, messy peace?