On May 19, 2025, Coinbase will officially join the S&P 500 – widely regarded as the most trusted, most tracked equity index in the world. With over $5 trillion in assets benchmarked to it, the S&P 500 isn’t just a measure of corporate strength – it’s a gravitational center of global capital allocation.

And starting next week, it will include a Bitcoin treasury company.

Coinbase currently holds 9,267 BTC on its balance sheet, valued at $963.8 million at today’s price of $104,000 per Bitcoin, making it the 9th largest public corporate Bitcoin holder globally.

As Nick Ward reports for BitcoinMagazine.com, this marks a quiet turning point for Bitcoin in capital markets – one that reframes the treasury conversation and reshapes how companies think about index eligibility, institutional flows, and balance sheet strategy.

The Most Passive Flows in Finance Just Found Bitcoin

Coinbase’s addition to the index means something profound: millions of investors will soon have indirect exposure to Bitcoin—and they didn’t choose it.

Because the S&P 500 is tracked by passive strategies, funds and institutions must purchase Coinbase stock in proportion to its index weight. If Coinbase is assigned even a 0.20% weighting, that implies more than $10 billion in net inflows from index-tracking vehicles.

This is not speculative capital. This is mandatory exposure—capital governed by rules, not conviction.

And for the first time, those rules lead directly to Bitcoin.

Bitcoin Treasuries Are Now Index-Eligible

For years, Bitcoin on the corporate balance sheet was treated as a novelty—or worse, a liability. But Coinbase’s inclusion signals something different: Bitcoin exposure is now compatible with the highest standards of institutional eligibility.

It’s a powerful validation for public companies already holding Bitcoin—and a strategic consideration for those that aren’t. Index inclusion is not reserved for fiat-only treasuries. Coinbase’s addition confirms that sound operations and a Bitcoin-aligned balance sheet are not mutually exclusive.

In fact, they may now be complementary.

Strategy May Be Next to Join The S&P 500

Coinbase may be the first S&P 500 company with a Bitcoin treasury—but it likely won’t be the last.

Strategy ($MSTR), formerly MicroStrategy, is widely viewed as the next potential candidate. The company meets many of the S&P 500’s baseline criteria:

• It is U.S.-based and publicly listed on the Nasdaq.

• It has sufficient free float and market capitalization.

• Its last four quarters of GAAP earnings are positive.

And perhaps most notably: Strategy is the largest corporate Bitcoin holder in the world—by far.

As of today, it holds 568,840 BTC, currently worth $59.16 billion.

Its balance sheet is no longer just Bitcoin-heavy – it is Bitcoin-native. If admitted, Strategy would represent an even deeper exposure to Bitcoin inside the world’s most influential index.

This matters. Because it signals that Bitcoin is becoming a foundational component of corporate capital formation—not an outlier.

From Signal to Strategy: A New Corporate Playbook

Coinbase’s entry – and Strategy’s potential follow-on – reinforces an emerging thesis: a Bitcoin treasury can enhance a company’s capital profile—not detract from it.

Here’s why:

• Visibility: Index inclusion provides perpetual exposure to new capital.

• Flows: Passive funds are forced buyers—providing liquidity and price support.

• Perception: Bitcoin is no longer a reputational liability—it’s becoming a marker of long-term vision and resilience.

In this context, treasury strategy becomes a capital markets strategy. Holding Bitcoin isn’t just about hedging inflation or diversifying reserves—it’s about aligning your company with where capital is flowing.

BFC Perspective: The Bridge Has Been Crossed

From a Bitcoin For Corporations standpoint, this is not just news—it’s a case study in what institutional acceptance looks like.

Coinbase has:

• Navigated the public markets as a Bitcoin-native company,

• Maintained a material Bitcoin treasury position, and

• Demonstrated that such positioning is not a barrier to index inclusion—it can be a feature.

And Strategy, with its commanding treasury and growing influence, may soon follow—cementing Bitcoin’s place at the core of U.S. corporate indices.

This should embolden public companies and pre-IPO candidates alike. It’s proof that Bitcoin alignment doesn’t isolate you from the traditional system—it can embed you deeper into it.

This is the BFC thesis in action: Bitcoin-native capital structures are compatible with institutional legitimacy.

What Comes Next: Bitcoin Is Entering the Core Portfolio

With Coinbase’s S&P 500 inclusion and Strategy potentially next, the implications are clear:

• Bitcoin is no longer confined to speculative portfolios.

• Bitcoin treasuries are now appearing in default asset allocations.

• The passive indexing era is now passively onboarding Bitcoin—whether the end investor realizes it or not.

For CFOs and capital allocators, the takeaway is simple: Bitcoin on the balance sheet is no longer a bet – it’s a bridge. To the index. To the allocators. To the long game.

With Coinbase joining the S&P 500, Bitcoin exposure is entering the core of institutional portfolios—not through a financial product, but via a public company’s balance sheet. As Strategy positions to follow, this marks a broader shift: Bitcoin treasury strategy is becoming part of the mainstream capital structure.

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

The Department of the Interior (DOI) is expediting environmental permitting review of the Velvet-Wood mine in Utah amid a national energy emergency, the agency said in a May 12 statement.

“If approved, the Velvet-Wood mine project in San Juan County, Utah, would produce uranium and vanadium,” said the agency. Uranium is used as fuel in nuclear reactors and for the production of tritium, which is required for nuclear weapons, while vanadium is used in steel production and titanium aerospace alloys.

“The project will undergo an accelerated environmental review by the Bureau of Land Management, with a completion timeline of 14 days. The expedited review is expected to significantly contribute to meeting urgent energy demands and addressing key threats to national energy security,” the DOI said.

The United States is currently “dangerously reliant” on foreign imports to meet the demand for uranium and vanadium, according to the agency.

In 2023, imports accounted for 99 percent of the uranium concentrate used by U.S. nuclear generators, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in a Jan. 30 statement.

According to the EIA, prior to the 1980s, the United States had incentives and favorable trade policies that boosted domestic uranium production. After these policies ended in the 1980s, domestic output cratered.

For instance, the United States produced 43.7 million pounds of uranium concentrate in 1980. By 2019, this had dropped to 174,000 pounds.

As for vanadium, almost half of domestic consumption last year was accounted for by imports, the DOI said.

A key security risk posed by the lack of domestic uranium and vanadium production is that America is dependent on its rivals.

For instance, in 2023, U.S. nuclear generators sourced uranium concentrate from sources in Russia, the DOI said. Meanwhile, Russia and China are key exporters of vanadium, according to data from the World Bank.

According to the DOI, the expedited permitting of the Velvet-Wood mine is being done in response to the national emergency declaration issued by President Donald Trump via an executive order on Jan. 20.

The declaration said the current inadequate development of domestic energy sources makes the United States “vulnerable to hostile foreign actors” and poses a national security threat to the country.

“America is facing an alarming energy emergency because of the prior administration’s Climate Extremist policies,” Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said.

“President Trump and his administration are responding with speed and strength to solve this crisis.

“The expedited mining project review represents exactly the kind of decisive action we need to secure our energy future. By cutting needless delays, we’re supporting good-paying American jobs while strengthening our national security and putting the country on a path to true energy independence.”

Speeding Up Critical Resources Development

On April 23, the DOI announced that it was implementing emergency permitting procedures to speed up the development of critical minerals and energy resources.

Approval times will be reduced to a maximum of 28 days from the months or years it used to take, the department said.

The policy is applicable to a wide range of energy sources such as oil, gas, uranium, geothermal, biofuels, and coal. Solar and wind were not listed.

“The United States cannot afford to wait,” Burgum said. “By reducing a multi-year permitting process down to just 28 days, the Department will lead with urgency, resolve, and a clear focus on strengthening the nation’s energy independence.”

In an April 24 statement, environmental advocacy group the Sierra Club criticized the DOI policy, calling the reduced time limit “troublingly short.”

“These arbitrary time limits make a complete review of the risks of potentially hazardous projects impossible,” said Athan Manuel, director of the Sierra Club’s Lands Protection Program.

“A shoddy review means the true hazards of a project may only be known when the air or water thousands of people rely on is dangerously polluted.”

On March 20, Trump signed an executive order to take “immediate measures” to boost mineral production in the United States.

“China, Iran, and Russia control large deposits of several minerals critical to the U.S., posing a national security risk. 70 percent of U.S. imports of rare earths come from China,” a March 20 White House fact sheet said.

“Critical minerals are essential for U.S. military readiness, as they are key components in fighter jets, satellites, submarines, smart bombs, and missile guidance systems,” it said, adding that “financing, loans, and investment support will be provided for new mineral production projects.”

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

The Border Patrol has released the latest stats on encounters with illegal aliens at the border and they once again prove that there was an intentional controlled effort to flood America with immigrants under the Biden administration.

The numbers from CBP show that apprehensions are down 93% in April, and only five illegal immigrants were released into the country in April, compared to 68,000 last April.

You can count them on one hand. The border is truly secure now.

April 2025:
➡️8,383 illegal aliens at the southern border
➡️279 apprehensions / day

April 2024:
➡️128,895 illegal aliens at the southern border
➡️4,297 apprehensions / day

President Trump has secured our border. https://t.co/YYDOpxa7xu

— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) May 12, 2025

Even those five were only allowed into the country temporarily for special interest court cases.

The figures confirm that April 2025 averaged 279 Border Patrol apprehensions of illegal aliens per day.  Compare that to April 2024, which averaged 4,297 Border Patrol apprehensions of illegal aliens per day.

A total of 8,383 illegal aliens were apprehended at the southern border in April, down from nearly 129,000 in April 2024.

From 129,000 to 8,000. From chaos to control. Turns out, when you treat the border like a national security issue instead of a humanitarian PR stunt, things actually change. Imagine that.

— The Undercurrent (@NotTheirScript) May 12, 2025

That 8,000+ were also not put on planes and buses and shipped all over the country.

“For the first time in years, more agents are back in the field – patrolling territories that CBP didn’t have the bandwidth or manpower to oversee just six months ago,” said Pete Flores, Acting Commissioner of CBP.

“But thanks to this administration’s dramatic shift in security posture at our border, we are now seeing operational control becoming a reality – and it’s only just beginning,” he added.

Veteran border reporter Bill Melugin declared “The border is effectively closed/shut down, catch and release is over, gotaways are minuscule, and there has been no traditional spring surge of migrants arriving at the border. Messaging, executive policy, and consequences have intersected to create the quietest border in modern history.”

5 illegals vs 68,000 illegals. Wow. What a difference it makes to have a President who actually cares about American sovereignty & secure borders. THANK YOU PRESIDENT TRUMP! https://t.co/dsVUeEctDj

— Abigail Jackson 🇺🇸 (@abigailmarone) May 12, 2025

Hang on, we were repeatedly told by Democrats that this couldn’t be done.

But I was told a new bill was needed to do this.

— Wisconsin’s Conservative Sponge (@wiz_political) May 12, 2025

NEW: Border apprehensions are down 93% in April, only *5* illegal immigrants were released into the country in April, compared to 68,000 last April.

Never forget how the scam artists in the media told you this wasn’t possible without spending hundreds of billions of dollars.

As… pic.twitter.com/x58mywhEVg

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) May 12, 2025

LIES.

All we needed was a new President. 🇺🇸

— 🇺🇲🗑Small Town Chick🇺🇲 (@ejc9029) May 12, 2025

*  *  *

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

The so-called “breakthrough” trade deal between the U.S. and China on Monday slashes reciprocal tariffs and sets off a 90-day cooling period—one that Goldman analyst Philip Sun says will likely spark a surge of imports into U.S. ports. Far from the doom-and-gloom headlines pushed by leftist corporate media about “empty ports” and “empty shelves,” the incoming round of frontrunning by importers exposes those narratives as little more than misinformation and disinformation. 

The 90-day pause begins on Wednesday. This means President Trump’s 145% tariffs on Chinese imports will be slashed to 30%, while Beijing will reduce its levies from 125% to 10%. The breakthrough in trade talks follows U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s high-stakes meeting with Chinese trade representatives in Switzerland over the weekend.

Now that U.S. importers have a clear runway of dramatically reduced import costs for three months, Goldman’s Sun asked Tuesday: “Just imagine: given the 90-day tariff pause, how eager the Chinese exporters and American importers would be in rushing the orders?” 

The analyst followed up with another question: “We live in a highly uncertain world. Who knows what might happen after 90 days? (or even within). Should the Wal-Marts of the world try to stock up as many Christmas items as possible, perhaps not only for 2025, maybe even for 2026, too?” 

All great questions.

Sun answered his own question with a bold forecast: “China’s exports will be RED HOT in the next 90 days. Frontrunning would be the key word.” 

In a separate note, Jefferies analysts pointed out that freight rates on the trans-Pacific shipping route between China and the U.S. have soared from $2,000 per forty-foot equivalent unit in mid-April to around $2,500 this week. 

“The container sector is positioned for a meaningful improvement in spot rates on two fundamental fronts: a resumption of normal volumes and the beginnings of peak season, which typically commences by July,” Jefferies analysts said, adding, “Given the tighter capacity on the transpacific, ocean carriers are in the driver’s seat to push freight rates meaningfully higher.”

Freight forwarders, such as CMA CGM SA, called the 90-day pause and the move down in the tariff rate between China and the U.S. as “good news.” 

A Maersk spokesman told Bloomberg: “Right now, our customers have gotten 90 days of clarity with reduced tariffs, and we are working hard to help them make the best use of this window.”

“As many exporters might have held up their shipments to the US in April, the substantial tariff rollback is likely to spur a wave of pent-up exports,” Nomura chief China economist Lu Ting wrote in a note on Monday. 

Here’s a live shot of all container ships with a port calling in the U.S. 

Our ocean freight bookings from China to US increased 35% in the first day since the trade deal. A big backlog is looming, soon the ships will be sold out.

— Ryan Petersen (@typesfast) May 12, 2025

The incoming 90-day frontrunning of tariffs will merely destroy the far-left corporate media’s obsession with gloom and doom: “empty ports, empty shelves.” 

Authored by Stephen Katte via CoinTelegraph.com,

Censorship-resistant “dark stablecoins” could come in increasing demand as governments tighten their oversight of the industry. 

Stablecoins have been used for various groups to store assets due to a lack of government interference; however, with regulations pending, that could soon change, Ki Young Ju, CEO of crypto analytics firm CryptoQuant, said in a May 11 X post.

“Soon, any stablecoin issued by a country could face strict govt regulation, similar to traditional banks. Transfers might automatically trigger tax collection through smart contracts, and wallets could be frozen or require paperwork based on government rules,” he said.

“People who used stablecoins for big international transfers might start looking for censorship-resistant dark stablecoins instead.”

On the heels of US President Donald Trump’s crypto-friendly administration assuming power earlier this year, lawmakers are weighing stablecoin legislation, which seeks to regulate US stablecoins, ensuring their legal use for payments. 

The European Union has already brought in its Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation, which, among other measures, mandates that stablecoins be regulated and transparent.

Source: Ki Young Ju

Ju speculates that a dark or private stablecoin could be created as an algorithmic stablecoin, with the value maintained through algorithmic mechanisms rather than being pegged to an external asset like gold, which makes it susceptible to interference from authorities. 

“One possible example could be a decentralized stablecoin that follows the price of regulated coins like USDC using data oracles like Chainlink,” he said.

Another way would be stablecoins issued by countries that don’t censor financial transactions, or, for example, if Tether chooses not to comply with US government regulations in the future.

“USDT itself used to be considered a censorship-resistant stablecoin. If Tether chooses not to comply with US government regulations under a future Trump administration, it could become a dark stablecoin in an increasingly censored internet economy,” Ju said.

Privacy technology in crypto is already being used

Zcash and Monero — while they aren’t stablecoins —already shield transactions and allow users to send and receive funds without revealing their transaction data on the blockchain.

Several projects are also working on using similar technology for stablecoins, such as Zephyr Protocol, a Monero fork that hides transactions from being revealed on the blockchain. PARScoin also hides user identities, transaction values, and links to past transactions.

The market cap of US dollar-denominated stablecoins has continued to grow, crossing $230 billion in April, a report from investment banking giant Citigroup found. That’s an increase of 54% since last year, with Tether and USDC dominating 90% of the market.

Meanwhile, total stablecoin volumes hit $27.6 trillion in 2024, surpassing the combined volumes of Visa and Mastercard by 7.7%. 

On Monday, President Donald Trump signed the Most Favored Nation (MFN) Executive Order on drug pricing, aiming to pressure the pharmaceutical industry to lower prices by linking them to those paid in other developed countries. The order directs the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) to communicate these international price benchmarks to drug manufacturers. If significant progress isn’t achieved within several months, HHS is instructed to initiate a rulemaking process to enforce MFN-based pricing.

Following the MFN EO on drug pricing, Goldman analysts Asad Haider and team noted that stocks most exposed to the EO—such as Regeneron and Merck—rallied sharply, as both the text of the order and the subsequent press briefing alleviated worst-case fears priced into pharma stocks. 

According to Goldman’s political economist Alec Phillips, the EO appears more designed to increase the Trump administration’s negotiation leverage than to implement sweeping reforms immediately. The analyst expects the HHS to impose MFN-based pricing if no “significant progress” is made within several months.

The EO’s language is legally cautious. It repeatedly cites the need to act “consistent with law” and lacks clarity on scope—such as whether it applies to Medicare Part B, D, or both.

“Overall, while the EO appears intended to create leverage for negotiation with the industry and is likely to increase pressure on companies to announce some concessions, our political economist notes that the process appears to be in early stages and does not expect near-term implementation of the measures contemplated in the EO,” Haider told clients on Tuesday.

Haider continued, “Our net takeaway is that while the EO removes a potential worst-case scenario, we expect drug pricing to remain a focus and note that clarity across other policy, regulatory, and tariff-related vectors is needed for large-cap biopharma to see a sustained recovery.” 

Here’s Alec Phillips’ first-take 

President Trump’s executive order (EO) on “most favored nation” (MFN) drug pricing could lead to discussions with pharmaceutical companies regarding potential price concessions but does not look likely to lead to substantial near-term policy changes. It orders the Dept. of Health and Human Services (HHS) to communicate price targets to pharmaceutical manufacturers based on prices paid in other developed economies. If “significant progress” has not been achieved on drug pricing after an unspecified period of time—we would expect the White House to give the industry at least several months—the order instructs HHS to propose a “rulemaking plan” to impose MFN pricing. The EO is unclear on whether this would apply only to drugs covered under Medicare and, if so, whether it would apply to all drugs and whether it would apply to Medicare Part B, D or both. In the event “significant progress” is not made, the EO also instructs: (1) HHS to certify safety of drug reimportation, (2) FTC and DOJ to take enforcement action against anti-competitive practices, (3) the Dept. of Commerce to “review and consider” exports of pharmaceuticals, and (4) FDA to “review and potentially modify or revoke” drug approvals. The order also instructs US Trade Representative to guard against “unreasonable or discriminatory” practices in other countries that raise prices in the US, including foreign price controls, and tells HHS to “consider” a program to sell direct to consumer at MFN prices.

Overall, the EO appears intended to create leverage for negotiation with the industry and is likely to increase pressure on companies to announce some concessions. That said, this process appears to be in early stages and we would not expect near-term implementation of any of the measures contemplated in the EO. Later this year, the main question will be whether the administration has authority to implement these kinds of changes unilaterally. With regard to Medicare, the administration has authority to negotiate discounts on 15 drugs this year under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), and could potentially pursue broader price concessions as part of a CMMI demonstration. However, Medicaid pricing (rebates) is set in statute, and the administration has limited ability to constrain prices in the private market. In theory, Congress could affect these areas, but for now neither looks likely to be included in the House’s budget reconciliation package.

Overall, analysts view the EO as primarily a negotiation tool rather than a blueprint for immediate reform. The goal is to bring big pharma to the table to negotiate lower drug prices, allowing the Trump administration to advance its price reduction agenda.

Authored by Monica Showalter via AmericanThinker.com,

Get a load of the pope’s brothers…

It’s as if God has a sense of humor.

Imagine getting elected to the 2,000-year-old Chair of St. Peter. You’d become the head of state of an unbroken succession of popes as well as the leader of the world’s largest religion, one watched and followed closely by others, every word you said dissected closely. Your blessings would be sought, you’d deliver the global pieties, you’d avoid grubby politics, focusing on the tenets of your faith.

But then, you have these guys behind you, your two brothers, at  least one of whom loves himself some Trump.

“When he switched to speaking Spanish, I said to myself: ‘quit showing off, you little jerk.’” — Pope Leo’s oldest brother Louis pic.twitter.com/o3ATbsvSRa

— Christopher Hale (@chrisjollyhale) May 11, 2025

It’s pretty fun, actually, given that the pope is trying to keep himself a bit of a mystery, a man for all people, a man above the political fray.

Here are some of older brother Lou’s tweets:

The new pope’s brother is based pic.twitter.com/o50Q5vsFKG

— Dr. Richard Harambe (@Richard_Harambe) May 11, 2025

Pope Leo’s eldest brother Lou is a based Facebook boomer that lives in Florida.

We are so back. pic.twitter.com/Dedzlvl9wi

— Conor Coutts (@_CCoutts_) May 11, 2025

Pope Leo’s brother is a big J.D. Vance fan.

Awesome. pic.twitter.com/nV3LiXCoSW

— Dustin Grage (@GrageDustin) May 11, 2025

Pope’s brother pic.twitter.com/gdcfeXU8Jl

— Jack Poso 🇺🇸 (@JackPosobiec) May 10, 2025

from rhe Pope’s brother’s facebook pic.twitter.com/4GeBZFILYx

— chem (@ObamaChemtrail) May 11, 2025

This is the new Pope’s brother, Lou Prevost. pic.twitter.com/GoePslCnMX

— Lisa Whicker (@Providential) May 10, 2025

The new POPE’s brother knows the truth about Nixon and Watergate Nixon!

In fact the new Pope’s brother is #MAGA! pic.twitter.com/pue8aBMx6h

— Roger Stone (@RogerJStoneJr) May 11, 2025

Turns out the Pope’s brother in Florida is a massive Trump-supporting patriot pic.twitter.com/RLvxGrq2Yw

— Jack Poso 🇺🇸 (@JackPosobiec) May 10, 2025

So he’s totally normal, working class American, just like the rest of us, part of the Catholic majority here who obviously voted for President Trump. And the fact that the brothers seem to be fairly close as family members pretty well confirms to us normals also that that is the kind of talk the new pope heard around his house growing up. He wasn’t a rarified intellectual, he knew very well what the smell of the sheep was, because he had his brothers.

Here’s one of the funnier vignettes from his election, on the phone with his brother John trying to tell him he’s now the pope:

Hearing the actual Pope Leo XIV say “Why didn’t you answer your phone” in the most annoyed brother tone ever really humanized that position and makes me feel closer to the church pic.twitter.com/y3akbyf1rT

— Bruno ◢ ◤ (@Brunazzooo) May 10, 2025

When Pope Leo XIV was first elected, I expressed hope that his exposure to the ordinary people of Peru would probably ensure that he wasn’t a leftist wokester of the liberation theology stripe, because ordinary Peruvians often can sound like Trump voters.

As it happens, he didn’t need to go that far, they were right there in his own family. While I doubt he is as conservative as Lou is, he’s probably more conservative than he lets on, given the wokester atmosphere of the Vatican during the time of Pope Francis, where it would not have been tolerated, and he least knows and understands conservatives, which seemed to be a big problem for Pope Francis, who didn’t seem to have ever been exposed to them. There are reports that he, too, was a registered Republican, and voted in the last election.

The brothers, while chatty with the press, are pretty careful to protect him. Being conservatives, they clearly know what the mainstream media is about and do not give them anything they can hang on him, which is what they are looking for.

Brother Lou said he hadn’t heard from his brother, and actually wondered if based on his new position, he would ever get to talk with him again. If the pope is distancing himself from his brother because of his tweets, that won’t be a good thing. But if he eventually talks to him, away from the press, which was what interrupted the first call, it will be all good for the rest of us.

I think he will. And if so, it’s a reassuring thing for those of us in the U.S. that he’s not a crazed Trump-hater and has actually been around conservatives, which is a lot more than a lot of them can say.

Fox New host Raymond Arroyo predicts that Pope Leo XIV will probably get along better with President Trump than anyone can imagine, and with brothers like that, the rest of us have ample reason for reassurance that he’s not in that little leftist bubble so many of them are, based on we have seen in the past several years. Trump might even contact the brothers for the best advice on how to deal with the new pope. Who would be better?

Yes, it seems God has a sense of humor.

The Kremlin on Tuesday affirmed that “the Russian side continues to prepare for the negotiations that are scheduled to take place on Thursday.” This after on Sunday Russian President Vladimir Putin offered to resume direct negotiations with Kiev, and proposed the Istanbul talks.

Ukrainian President Zelensky then made a performative gesture – likely more meant to prove to the White House that he’s ‘willing’ – saying he’s ready to fly to Istanbul in person and urged Putin to do the same.

Putin spokesman Dimitry Peskov when grilled by reporters on Tuesday downplayed the whole event, describing that direct talks between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul later this week are merely “still possible”.

As for revealing the line-up for the Russian delegation, and who is expected lead, Peskov said “we will announce it as soon as the president [Putin] deems it necessary.”

Despite some sensational recent headlines and statements, one thing we can be sure will not happen is President Putin’s personal presence. And per the latest from Reuters, President Trump is not going to be there in Turkey either (after on Monday he actually floated the possibility):

• KELLOGG, WITKOFF ARE HEADING TO ISTANBUL THIS WEEK: REUTERS
• FORMAT OF TALKS IN TURKEY WITH KELLOGG, WITKOFF UNCLEAR: REUTERS

“All of us in Ukraine would appreciate it if President Trump could be there with us at this meeting in Turkey. This is the right idea. We can change a lot,” Zelensky had said.

And Trump had responded by saying he was “thinking about actually flying over” – which would have to happen immediately on the heels of his big Gulf visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and UAE.

Zelensky has meanwhile insisted that any talks should be preceded by the start of a 30-day ceasefire – which Washington appears to be backing, but which the Kremlin has already rejected.

Really, all the talk of pushing to get Putin in Istanbul to negotiate in person was about generating mainstream media headlines like the following:

Moscow worries that such a lengthy pause in fighting would only be used by Ukrainian forces to rearm and regroup along the front lines, at a moment they are exhausted and steadily losing ground.

Peskov told reporters further, “[Western] Europe is, after all, entirely on Ukraine’s side. It cannot claim to have an unbiased approach… Its approach is not balanced, it is rather pro-war, aimed at continuing the fighting, which is in sharp contrast to the approach demonstrated, for example, by Moscow or Washington,” according to Russian media.

By Michael Every of Rabobank

The Merch-Can-‘Til-Lists

Equity markets soared, as did bond yields and the US dollar, while gold and Bitcoin dropped following the US and China taking down their tariffs by 115 percentage points to 30% for the US (on top of legacy 25% Trump 1/Biden tariffs on 2/3rds of Chinese goods and 25% sectoral tariffs) and to 10% for China for 90 days.

Some say President Trump folded, “because markets.” Or “because neo-mercantilism” as there is nothing market-like in China’s dominance of the production and the staggering trade surpluses it runs. Yet there’s certainly dotted lines being drawn on things to show where folds could go.

On the other hand, markets soared despite tariffs that were unthinkable six months ago. Moreover, Trump claimed China has agreed to remove all non-tariff barriers — like massive direct and indirect state subsidies and infrastructure — and underlined that tariffs can go back up again, if not to 145%, if a deal isn’t done by 10 August.

Yet trade partners just saw pushing back at the US can work: why rush to sign a deal like the UK’s —which aims to freeze China out of supply chains— to then see the US say it doesn’t want to decouple from Beijing, or only in key sectors? That suggests the White House is going to have to breathe fire at someone to make their point. The candidate who fits that bill best might be the EU –if Japan, South Korea, or Canada don’t get there first– and now the US will be forcing its prescription drug prices down by executive order, with parties like Europe facing higher prices as a result, there are even more issues to clash over. In short, the trade war isn’t over.

At the meta level, we just published a report on neo-mercantilist ideology, which includes both China and Trumpism. Markets are caught between ‘Merch-can-‘til-Lists’, as China cementing itself into supply chains and de-risking from the West remains its grand macro strategy, and acting against it is the US equivalent. Indeed, markets cheering the victory of a non-market economy over a market-driven one, because the latter was mirroring the former, fail to see what’s happening.

The Financial Times reports US Treasury Secretary Bessent secretly met China’s Finance Minister Lan Fo’an in a basement after the IMF meeting three weeks ago: recall laughter at the US claiming to have made contact with China? Apologise if you were one of them.

Chinese Delegation Spotted Entering Treasury Department, Demands Photos Be Deleted: Report https://t.co/CRh07l2K1Z

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 25, 2025

Oren Cass, also in the FT, underlines liberal neo-mercantilists think the US needs tariffs to push back against state-backed champions supported by illiberal neo-mercantilists: “Perhaps the free-traders are betting on the latter, and would abandon American-style capitalism altogether before allowing so blasphemous a word as “protection” to pass their lips. What they cannot have, in the modern world, no matter how ideal in theory, is free trade and a free market at the same time.” Echoing @izakaminska, he says if the US wins this trade war, we might get free and fair trade in places; and if it loses, we won’t get it anywhere. That markets either don’t see this or don’t care, “because cheap stuff/asset prices” is worth thinking about. A lot.

At the macro level China is accelerating efforts to strip foreign firms from its supply chains. US bookings for Chinese cargo just leaped 35% and firms will surge inventory; but all will be looking for alternative supply to ensure there’s no repeat of the recent de facto embargo. Taiwan’s president just proposed a global “non-Red” supply chain ex-China: but has he looked at his own recently?

Our ocean freight bookings from China to US increased 35% in the first day since the trade deal. A big backlog is looming, soon the ships will be sold out.

— Ryan Petersen (@typesfast) May 12, 2025

In short, a 90-day trade ceasefire is likely to restock/rearm and prepare for round 2: just like the Russia-Ukraine version will be.

On which note, Trump says he may join the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire talks to be held Thursday in Istanbul…if he’s wanted there more than he is between India and Pakistan, where both sides have claimed victory in their recent military clashes, but the former has clearly set new rules of engagement and things remain tense.

Trump is in Riyadh today. Rumors are he may meet Syria’s ex-Islamist president, whom the US designates a terrorist, and who’s reportedly offering to build a Trump Tower in Damascus – if tall enough, it might be visible from the outer suburbs where government attacks against ethnic minorities are taking place. What other headline-grabbing moves will be made, with what market impact? One thing is for sure: it will be all about geopolitics, realpolitik, and fossil fuels rather than the ‘Liberal World Order’ (LWO) and all things green.

Nearby, the New York Times explains ‘Why Trump Suddenly Declared Victory Over the Houthi Militia’, claiming the Pentagon spent $1bn in 30 days, lost two F-18A fighter jets and seven $30m drones, almost shot down an F-35, and used so many precision munitions it was worrying contingency planners, with CENTCOM’s metric of success being “bombs dropped.” This is an institutional mindset that assumes infinite supply chains and budget deficit and debt limits as if we were still had vintage LWO QE, negative rates, and either total US integration with the Chinese economy or a totally different US economy. The fact we have none of them –and that the US couldn’t defeat the modern equivalent of the Barbary Pirates, whom the infinitely less powerful early 19th-century US could– should worry markets vastly more than it seems to be doing.     

As another indicator of the shift away from the LWO, the UK Labour Party’s PM Starmer yesterday stated mass immigration has failed economically and politically, with declining GDP per capita, lower productivity, and a greater net strain on state finances, while threatening to make Britain “an island of strangers.” This obviously copies rhetoric from the anti-immigration Reform Party now leading the opinion polls. However, the rules and legislation Starmer is proposing will only slow the pace of British net immigration to a still-high level while infuriating left-wing voters, his own MPs, and UK industries from care homes to universities. Meanwhile, counter-terror police are investigating three potential cases of arson linked to Starmer: at his London home, which is let out; another property linked to him; and on in his old car.

Simultaneously, UK pension funds are to unlock up to £50bn of investments, with half reserved for UK firms, under a new “Mansion House accord” with the government. Expect to see a lot more of this “what is GDP *for*?” state leaning on private capital ahead: as our report on neo-mercantilism shows, it’s as much a part of that ideology as tariffs.

There’s less sign of that in the US budget bill emerging from Congress, however, or at least how to pay for it. So far, it seems to be rejecting higher taxes for the wealthy and removing the carried interest loophole “because lobbyists”, while adding no tax on tips and overtime and social security, plus more defense spending, meaning around $1.5 – 2 trillion on top of US fiscal deficits over the next decade.

While today’s CPI will be far less relevant now that the entire macro picture has been reset after this weekend’s trade war truce – which cut tariffs between US and China by 115% for 90 days…

…thus making any pre/post CPI number comparisons meaningless apples to oranges, the machines will certainly be reacting to what Bloomberg prints in the flashing red headline at 8:30am ET.

As we detailed here, higher-than expected inflation data is likely to accelerate the increase in yields spurred by the easing in trade tensions with China. 

As Bloomberg’s Alyce Andres notes, survey data ahead of Tuesday’s April CPI report sends a clear message that firms passed rising tariff-linked costs on to consumers. 

Higher Prices

• ISM Manufacturing prices expanded to 69.8, the highest since June 2022.

• ISM Services ticked up to 65.1 in April, the highest since January 2023.

• S&P Global US Manufacturing firms increased their output prices by the greatest degree since early 2023.

• S&P Global US Services prices advanced.

• Richmond Fed manufacturing showed prices received rose to 2.65 from 2.34 in March.

• New York Fed manufacturing prices received edged up to 28.7 from 22.4 in March.

• Philadelphia Fed manufacturing report showed prices received gained to 30.7 compared to 29.8 in March.

• Kansas City Fed manufacturing prices received surged to 29, up from 15 in March.

• Kansas City Fed non-manufacturing showed selling prices rose in April.

• Dallas Fed manufacturing outlook report showed prices received for finished goods advanced to 14.9, up from 6.3 in March.

• Dallas Fed services selling prices rose to 8.4 from 5.2 in the prior month.

• Chicago PMI showed prices expanded at a faster pace in April.

Lower Prices:

• New York Fed services report showed prices received declined to 26.0 from 28.7 in March.

• Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing data reflected a plunge in prices received to -0.1 from 8.4 in in the prior month.

• Richmond Services prices received nudged down to 3.03 compared to 3.68 in March.

Optically, inflation indicators (hard, not soft survey) have notably deflated in the last month…

Source: Bloomberg

So, what did we get – did the ‘soft’ survey data once again completely decouple from the reality of ‘hard’ actual data?

SHOCKER – Despite the panic from the establishment, headline CPI disappointed, rising 0.2% MoM (below the +0.3% exp), pulling the headline down to +2.3% YoY (below the 2.4% exp) – the lowest since February 2021…

Source: Bloomberg

That’s quite a difference from the Democrat-sponsored surge in UMich inflation expectations (something it appears Democrats were unable to see or fear in 2021/2022 when President Biden was printing trillions in stimmies to save his base from actually working for a living)…

Source: Bloomberg

Under the hood, commodity prices just inched back into inflation (+0.1% YoY) while Services inflation continues to slide…

Source: Bloomberg

Headline CPI 0.2% MoM. Here are the details:

• The index for shelter rose 0.3 percent in April, accounting for more than half of the all items monthly increase.

• The energy index also increased over the month, rising 0.7 percent as increases in the natural gas index and the electricity index more than offset a decline in the gasoline index.

• The index for food, in contrast, fell 0.1 percent in April as the food at home index decreased 0.4 percent and the food away from home index rose 0.4 percent over the month.

But Core Services rose MoM…

Source: Bloomberg

Egg prices – so much in focus during Trump’s first few weeks after Biden’s shitshow – plunged 12.7% MoM… the biggest MoM drop since March 1984…

Source: Bloomberg

Core CPI also rose 0.2% MoM (below the 0.3% exp) leaving it up 2.8% YoY as expected (lowest since April 2021)…

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg

Core CPI +0.2% MoM. Indexes that increased over the month include household furnishings and operations, medical care, motor vehicle insurance, education, and personal care. The indexes for airline fares, used cars and trucks, communication, and apparel were among the major indexes that decreased in April. Here are the details:

• The shelter index increased 0.3 percent over the month.

  • The index for owners’ equivalent rent rose 0.4 percent in April and the index for rent increased 0.3 percent.

  • The lodging away from home index fell 0.1 percent in April.

  • Shelter inflation 0.34% MoM, and 3.99% YoY, unch from a month ago and the lowest since Nov 2021

  • Rent inflation 0.27% MoM, and 3.98% YoY, down from 3.99% in March and the lowest since Jan 2022

  • 

• The index for household furnishings and operations increased 1.0 percent in April, after being unchanged in March.

• The motor vehicle insurance index rose 0.6 percent in April.

• The index for education increased 0.1 percent over the month, as did the index for personal care.

• In contrast, the airline fares index fell 2.8 percent in April, after declining 5.3 percent in March.

• The index for used cars and trucks fell 0.5 percent over the month, and the indexes for communication and apparel also declined.

• The new vehicles index and the recreation index were unchanged in April.

• The medical care index increased 0.5 percent over the month.

• The index for hospital services increased 0.6 percent in April and the index for physicians’ services rose 0.3 percent over the month.

• The prescription drugs index rose 0.4 percent in April.

And drilling down even more, the so-called SuperCore CPI (Services Ex Shelter) dropped to +3.01% YoY – the lowest since Dec 2021…

Source: Bloomberg

Recreation Services and Education costs are deflating…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, as Goldman noted ahead of the print, whatever we do learn about tariff-related inflation today lags the rapidly-changing policy reality… so choose the size of the salt crystal to take as you react to the algos initial reaction to this data.

Is the inevitable trajectory of CPI higher given the recent surge in M2…

Source: Bloomberg

Real average weekly earnings rose 1.7% YoY – the best growth in wages since March 2021…

Source: Bloomberg

Brace for an avalanche of this statement repeated ad nauseum all day from establishment economists – “…we’re sure the inflation from tariffs will hit next month…”

The new narrative: “lack of tariff inflation is transitory”