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Alec Baldwin Says Quiet Part Out Loud As Democrats Become More Unhinged 

Alec Baldwin Says Quiet Part Out Loud As Democrats Become More Unhinged 

As the Democratic Party spirals into disarray—polling in freefall, far-left activists firebombing Tesla showrooms and vehicles, and USAID funds cut for its sprawling NGO network used for domestic color revolution operations—struggling actor Alec Baldwin has openly said the quiet part out loud: “You can see now that we are in a pre-civil war culture.” 

The Hollywood elitist rambled on for a few minutes in a video posted on Instagram, adding: “And watching this show really reminded me of how we are in a very similar state now in a pre-Civil War culture, in a pre-Civil War environment.” 

Baldwin’s comments merely reflect the rudderless Democratic Party as its back is against the wall, growing increasingly desperate by the day as its rogue political machine (billionaire-funded) falls apart—with USAID funding eliminated, DOGE uncovering fraud involving Social Security numbers handed out to migrants like candy (which, by the way, allegedly allows migrants to vote in elections), and other Marxist-aligned, anti-American programs that were in place to undermine the nation. 

Never forget just how cringe Baldwin is… 

One X user perfectly explained why Baldwin is reading from a script:

The “pre-civil war” panic is a familiar script from Hollywood elites who spent four years cheering riots, censorship, and impeachments when they didn’t get their way. But now that Trump’s back in office and the populist tide is rising, suddenly it’s dangerous polarization.

In truth, the cultural divide wasn’t created by Trump, it was exposed by him. And people like Baldwin don’t fear civil war, they fear accountability. They fear a public no longer hypnotised by their narratives, no longer obedient to their values.

If anything, it’s the ruling class and its institutions, Hollywood included, that have been waging a cultural war for decades. Trump just stopped apologising for fighting back.

Just as the far-left corporate media cheered on domestic terrorism against Tesla, unhinged celebrities like Baldwin are now pushing propaganda warfare against the American people. It’s time to break free from the matrix. 

Tyler Durden
Wed, 04/02/2025 – 16:40

Futures Tumble As President Trump Delivers “Declaration Of Economic Independence”

Futures Tumble As President Trump Delivers “Declaration Of Economic Independence”

Update (1630ET): “Well we have some very, very good news today,” Trump began his address exclaiming that “This is Liberation Day.”

“April 2, 2025, will forever be remembered as the day American industry was reborn, the day America’s destiny was reclaimed and the day that we began to make America wealthy again,” Trump says.

“For decades, our country has been looted, pillaged, raped and plundered by nations near and far, both friend and foe alike. American steel workers, auto workers, farmers and skilled craftsmen — we have a lot of them here with us today. They really suffered gravely.”

“In a few moments, I will sign a historic Executive Order, reciprocal tariffs on countries throughout the world. Reciprocal. That means they do it to us and we do it to them. Very simple. Can’t get any simpler than that.”

Trump lays out his theory that tariffs will bring back a “golden age” for the US, a phrase he also used in his inaugural address:

“Jobs and factories will come roaring back into our country, and you see it happening already. We will supercharge our domestic industrial base.”

Trump says the reciprocal tariffs will bring “stronger competition and lower prices for consumers” in the US.

Finally, Trump announces his tariff plan details as a “Declaration Of Economic Independence”

The bottom line is that this is targeted reciprocal tariffs, NOT a broad-based 15% or more tariff slap on all products. 

Additionally, Trump confirmed that the new reciprocal tariffs will begin at midnight tonight.

However, they did announce a baseline tariff rate of 10% for all countries (below the 15% consensus and 20% worst case) and Trump confirmed the 25% tariff on all auto imports.

Additionally, Trump said they will not be full reciprocal tariffs, then held a chart up showing the individual nation (trade-weighted average) tariff levels:

Here are some specifics:

  • China: 34%

  • EU: 20%

  • Vietnam: 46%

  • Japan: 24%

  • UK: 10%

  • South Korea: 25%

  • Thailand: 36%

  • Switzerland: 31%

  • Cambodia: 49%

  • Taiwan: 32%

  • Malaysia: 24%

We noticed that Mexico and Canada are not on the list.

Initially markets heard Trump’s comments as ‘better than expected’ and futures spiked on the news, but then as he showed the chart of specific tariffs, futures plunged

“If you want your tariff rate to be zero, then you build your product right here in America, because there is no tariff if you build your plant, your product in America,” Trump said, concluding:

“Likewise to all of the foreign presidents, prime ministers, kings, queens, ambassadors and everyone else who will soon be calling to ask for exemptions from these tariffs, I say terminate your own tariffs, drop your barriers, don’t manipulate your currencies.”

*  *  *

“This is the moment… this is the time…” Trump’s Jekyll & Hyde tariff-ing plans are finally to be announced (“We are going to be very nice by comparison to what they were” vs “We’ve been taken advantage of for 40 years, maybe more, and it’s just not going to happen anymore.”)

As Trump discusses reciprocal tariffs (and the legacy media claims he is ‘punishing allies’) keep this chart in mind – does that seem like ‘free trade’?

The three main things to watch for when Trump starts speaking are as follows (h/t Goldman Sachs’ Brian Garrett)

  • What is the full list of countries included in the measures (19 is bogey)

  • What is the magnitude for average reciprocal tariff (GS econ expects avg 15% when weighted by US imports – this would be a negative surprise)

  • Confirmation of the planned timeline for implementation (the shorter the period, the more hawkish the read thru – and for now ‘immediate effect’ is expected)

Watch President Trump deliver his remarks in his ‘Make America Wealth Again’ event and answer questions here (due to start at 1600ET):

* * *

Update (0805ET): As the clock ticks down to today’s 4pm announcement of “across the board” tariffs on a subset of nations, speculation about the size and scope of the new rules is rife with many nations already threatening “proportionate” responses:

  • USTR reportedly prepares a new tariff option for US President Trump which is “an across-the-board tariff on a subset of nations that likely would not be as high as the 20% universal tariff option”, according to WSJ.

  • US President Trump’s tariff plans are “coming down to the wire” with his team reportedly still finalising the size and scope of the new levies, according to Bloomberg.

  • US Treasury Secretary Bessent told lawmakers that Wednesday’s tariffs are a ‘cap’, according to a CNBC reporter cited by Reuters.

  • On UK-US tariffs, “Sounds like any hopes of a last-ditch concession from Donald Trump ahead of his tariffs announcement are fading“, according to Times’ Swinford; although a deal could be signed as soon as next week “Keir Starmer is not planning to speak to him today, but there are hopes that the economic deal giving Britain a carve-out can be signed as soon as next week. Sources talking about ‘days or weeks'” “But in truth No 10 doesn’t know what Trump is planning or when concessions could be made. All deeply uncertain this morning”.

  • Canada is to avoid counter-tariffs that risk Canadian jobs and price hikes and it won’t impose retaliation tariffs on most US food and other basic necessities, according to the Globe and Mail citing two federal trade advisers.

  • Thai Commerce Ministry said Thai semiconductors may face 25% US tariffs and noted that Thai tariffs are 11% higher than US tariffs, while it added Thailand may see an impact of USD 7bln-8bln from US reciprocal tariffs but announced it will increase imports of US goods and plans tariff cuts for US products.

  • French Industry Minister reaffirms that Europe will respond to Trump tariffs in a proportionate manner; says Europe must show strength and be less naive

The irony, of course, is that if Trump unveils ‘reciprocal’ tariffs – mirroring the tariffs being put on US exports – any retaliatory response by a foreign nation cannot be proportionate by its nature. Any response is escalatory as the US is merely ‘catching up’ to the tariffs being put on its own goods.

Bloomberg reports that Trump is considering three options:

1) a blanket 20% tariff on all imports; 

2) a tiered system with three different rate levels; 

3) a country-by-country rate model.

White House spokesperson Leavitt said new duties are effective immediately which feels less ideal vs a delayed start (no time for negotiations).

*  *  *

Update  (8:45pm ET): With just hours to go until Trump’s “Liberation day” announcement, things remain… fluid.

  • Bloomberg reports that Trump’s deliberations over his plans to impose reciprocal tariffs are coming down to the wire, with his team said to be still finalizing the size and scope of the new levies he is slated to unveil on Wednesday afternoon. As a reminder, Peter Navarro said that Trump wants to raise $700 billion annually in tariff revenue.

  • In meetings on Tuesday, Trump’s team continued to hash out their options ahead of a Rose Garden event scheduled to begin as US markets close at 4 p.m. on Wednesday. 

  • The White House has not reached a firm decision on their tariff plan, even though Trump himself said earlier in the week that he had “settled” on an approach.

  • Several proposals are said to be under consideration, including a tiered tariff system with a set of flat rates for countries, as well as a more customized reciprocal plan. 

    • Under the first option, countries would see their goods face levies at either a 10% or 20% rate depending on their tariff and non-tariff barriers on US goods.

    • Under the two-tiered approach, the highest levies would be applied to the countries perceived as the biggest offenders, both in terms of true tariffs as well as easily quantifiable non-tariff measures that act to deter US imports. Trump’s White House this week has complained about the trade practices of the EU, Japan, India and Canada, for example.

  • Another approach would see the US applying individualized reciprocal rates, tailored to countries based on their existing levies and non-tariff barriers. This approach was publicly signaled for weeks but some recent deliberations suggest it’s no longer the main focus. 

  • There’s also been discussion of a return to Trump’s original proposal: a flat global tariff, which would apply evenly to trillions of imports. And the Wall Street Journal reported that Trump was considering a more targeted plan that would apply a tariff of less than 20% to a narrower section of countries.

  • With less than 24 hours to go until Trump’s announcement, companies, countries and the lobbyists paid to influence the president’s agenda tried to find out final details of the plan, only to learn there aren’t any final details yet. 

  • Amid the continuing barrage of trial balloons, the Wall Street Journal reported that Trump aides were studying a more targeted option, while Fox News said Tuesday that Trump was also still considering a flat 20% global tariff.

  • Amid all the speculation, the White House on Tuesday stayed silent on the details of Trump’s plan, ahead of the president’s formal announcement, while Leavitt told reporters on Tuesday that Trump was “with his trade and tariff team right now perfecting it to make sure this is a perfect deal for the American people and the American worker.”

  • Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told lawmakers that the tariffs would be a cap. reflecting the highest levels they’ll go, with countries then able to take steps to bring rates down, 

  • Representative Kevin Hern, an Oklahoma Republican, told CNBC. Earlier Tuesday, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said that the tariffs would take immediate effect but that Trump was open to subsequent negotiation. “Certainly, the president is always up to take a phone call, always up for a good negotiation,” she said.

  • The late-hour movement signaled that the scope and details of the long-promised announcement are shifting even as the pageantry of the event — dubbed a “Make America Wealthy Again” celebration — comes into focus.

Trump said Monday he had made a decision “actually a long time ago,” but didn’t reveal it. Leavitt reiterated that claim, though the White House declined to weigh in on various proposals said to be under consideration. A spokesman did not immediately reply to requests for further comment Tuesday.

Other key questions swirl, like the fate of tariffs already applied to China, Canada and Mexico, and clawed back partially for the latter two. The White House has not said whether those would be replaced by Trump’s Wednesday announcement, or whether his move to exempt goods traded under the continental trade pact might also be extended somehow to the new levies. The president has also promised coming tariffs on key sectors including pharmaceuticals, semiconductors and lumber.

* * * * *

There is just over 24 hours left until President Trump unveils the specifics of his “Liberation day” from global trade barriers at 3pm on Wednesday, and with markets obsessing over what the president will and will not say, we are starting a rolling blog which will be updated for all major developments. 

We begin with the known-knowns ahead of tomorrow’s big reveal:

  • Reciprocal Tariffs – President Trump said on Sunday that the reciprocal tariffs he is set to announce will include all nations, not just a smaller group of 10-15 countries with the largest trade imbalances. The White House has yet to outline what tariffs are coming up, how these will be calculated or what countries will need to do to secure exemptions. The President also mentioned that these tariffs will account for other countries’ non-tariff barriers, though he has also not went into detail on how these calculations will be conducted. Regarding exemptions, President Trump said in an interview with Newsmax that he plans to limit exceptions though the mention of potentially giving a lot of countries “breaks” last Monday at the White House has led to a steam of talks with the US (EU, India among the names of countries mentioned) regarding concessions. One potential twist is that overnight we got a USTR trade barrier report (not the official tariffs but its lists hundred of barriers to US exports) where this part stands out: the USTR report did not specify VATs as trade barriers in its discussion of EU policies, focusing instead on digital services taxes and the bloc’s new carbon border adjustment mechanism.” (RTRS) According to Goldman, goal posts have moved rapidly to 15%+ on EU tariffs and yesterday’s discussions were around the rather substantial tail risk that reciprocal VAT tariffs would mean (38%). Comments from Trump suggest a lighter touch on tariffs although without context it’s unclear what this might mean. Goldman concludes that “with risk premia having been built up the default direction will be a relief rally/vol compression (the sustainability of which will be more about US economy).”
     
  • Automobile Tariffs – As per the White House Fact Sheet, the 25% tariff will be applied to imported passenger vehicles (sedans, SUVs, crossovers, minivans, cargo vans) and light trucks, as well as key automobile parts (engines, transmissions, powertrain parts, and electrical components), with processes to expand tariffs on additional parts if necessary. Importers of automobiles under the USMCA will be given the opportunity to certify their U.S. content and systems will be implemented such that the 25% tariff will only apply to the value of their non-U.S. content. Tariffs on vehicles are set to take effect on 3Apr and certain auto parts no later than 3May.
     
  • Tariffs on countries importing Venuzuelan Oil – President Trump has issued an executive order declaring that any country buying oil or gas from Venezuela will pay a 25% tariff on trades with the U.S., and also extended a deadline (27 May) for Chevron to wind down operations. China, Spain, Brazil, Turkey, India, Italy, Cuba are among the countries that could be affected by this. In particular, China is Venezuela’s largest oil buyer (~55%). Goldman’s research desk highlights that this will pose a significant risk for China – if this was to materialize, it will raise the total US effective tariff rate on China close to 60%.
     
  • Sectoral Tariffs – President Trump also plans to impose tax additional tariffs to target specific industries including pharmaceutical drugs, copper and lumber.

LATEST NEWS:

  • US Treasury Secretary Bessent said President Trump will announce reciprocal tariffs at 15:00EDT/20:00BST on Wednesday.
  • White House Press Secretary Leavitt stated there will be a Rose Garden event on Wednesday for the Trump tariff plan and that Trump is committed to sectoral tariffs.
  • White House spokesperson said no exemptions at this time when asked about tariff exemptions for farmers and any country that has treated the US unfairly should expect to receive a tariff.
  • White House aides have drafted a proposal to impose tariffs of around 20% (prev. touted 15%) on at least most imports to the United States, according to WaPo sources. Several options are on the table and no final decision has been made. One option would raise import duties on products from virtually every country, rejecting more targeted approaches. If combined with additional tariffs on sectors such as automobile and pharmaceutical imports, raise more than USD 6tln. Administration officials are also discussing using this revenue to finance a tax rebate or dividend payment to most Americans; planning is “highly preliminary”. The White House is also still considering an order that would apply a different tariff rate to individual countries.
  • US President Trump said we will see tariff details maybe Tuesday night or on Wednesday which are going to be nice in comparison to other countries and in some cases, they may be substantially lower. Trump also stated that many countries have been looting the US and they will stop that on April 2nd, as well as noted there will be investments worth USD 5tln in the US. Furthermore, he stated that TikTok is not tied to a larger tariff deal but could be.
  • US President Trump is said to be still deciding which plan he will take for reciprocal tariffs and has been presented with “multiple” tariff plans, according to administration sources cited by FBN’s Lawrence, while sources said Trump will likely not make the decision on which plan until right before April 2nd or on that morning.

Reminder:

  • Weekend reports suggested US President Trump is said to be pushing senior advisers to go bigger on tariff policy as they prepare for Liberation Day’ on April 2nd and reportedly revived the idea of a flat universal tariff single rate on most imports, according to Washington Post.
  • It was also noted that the option viewed as most likely, publicly outlined by Treasury Secretary Bessent this month, would set tariffs on products from the 15% of countries the administration deems the worst US trading partners which account for almost 90% of imports.

Europe:

  • EU is mulling targeting big US tech firms in response to Trump tariffs, via WaPo citing sources/officials; one official suggested that the bloc could unite on “some partial measures against American services”.
  • France is reportedly pushing for a tougher response which includes digital services.
  • Other nations such as Italy remain opposed believing it will only cause further US escalation.
  • “European officials cautioned that there is no agreed-on hit list of digital services.”
  • “European officials concede that measures against companies like Google (GOOGL) or Meta (META) could escalate the trade war, but they say Trump has shifted the goalposts.”
  • “European officials are also discussing possible trade concessions”; could be willing to reverse some of the countermeasures announced after the US’ aluminium/steel tariffs.
  • WaPo reminds us that the bloc has already signalled a willingness to reduce the 10% tariff on US autos and increase the purchase of US-made LNG.

MORGAN STANLEY ON THE RECIPROCITY PRINCIPLE (KEY TAKEAWAYS)

  • Tariffs appear likely to head higher, on a number of trading partners: The Trump administration said it plans to increase tariff levels after taking into account three key factors to rectify what it perceives as unfair trade relationships: 1) product-level tariff differentials; 2) VAT differentials; and 3) a subjective “unfair trading practices.” We expect that the numbers revealed as a product of that assessment on April 2 will likely be a maximalist starting point, rather than ending point, for tariff levels.
  • April 2 should provide some clarity on the path, but we expect that not all of our questions will be answered by then: Two principles guide our rationale: The comprehensive review promised by the president is broad and complex, requiring months of investigation on a product-by-product basis, and we expect negotiations can potentially reduce levels from the stated starting point when this review concludes. Hence, April 2 is more likely a starting point than an ending point for implementation.
  • Key products in the EU, as well as broader Chinese imports, are likely to see increases…: When evaluating imports across the country-level criteria the administration has laid out as well as where the largest tariff differentials are, certain sectors stand out in particular, like EU autos. 
  •  …While Mexico, Canada, and certain products from countries in the EU appear more likely to avoid tariffs through negotiation. We see potential for more negotiation with countries that score low across the metrics that the administration has cited as important inputs to that April 2 evaluation, as well as those that Trump has signaled a willingness to negotiate with or countries for which tariffs are explicitly tied to a policy goal (like immigration/fentanyl).
  • Importantly, Morgan Stanley has low conviction in this path, and sees several plausible alternatives. More aggressive, and faster, tariff implementation is possible, as well as the inverse, given the president’s wide discretion and authority on this matter.

Mapping out current & expected tariffs on two vectors: relative level of conviction, and expected duration/potential for an off-ramp

  • Morgan Stanley incorporates “reciprocal tariffs” into that base case: The administration has stated it plans to review tariff rates on a country-by-country basis, taking into account a variety of other trade-related factors (some more subjective than others), culminating in an aggregate number (or tariff level) that Commerce Secretary Lutnick intends to present to the president April 1, to be publicly released on April 2. This to us signals that the administration is planning to engage in a broad-based retooling of its trading relationships, grounded in matching tariff rates but incorporating a number of other factors like existing trade deficit, VAT differentials, and non-tariff barriers to trade (including subsidies). 
  • Hence, while the short-term policy goals might align with one of the two objectives we lay out, undertaking a country-by-country review of existing trade relationships grounded in tariff reciprocity reflects, in our view, a longer-term commitment to de-risking and retooling trade policy.
  • Various third parties have assessed how high tariffs could go as a result of this review: the Yale Budget Lab, for example, sees the policy change resulting in an incremental 13ppt hike to tariffs on China vs. 16ppt on Mexico and 17ppt on India. Given the relatively high VAT in Europe, the tariff rate goes up by even more in the UK, Denmark/Sweden, and Hungary: 20ppt, 25ppt, and 27ppt, respectively.

More in the full Morgan Stanley reciprocity analysis available here to pro subs.

JPM TARIFF SCENARIO ANALYSIS

  • 10% TARIFF – assuming a 10% blanket tariff that also cancels/replaces Can/Mexico tariffs but not China: SPX +2 – +2.5%. 10Y yield higher by ~10bps. EUR/USD falls to 1.06 – 1.07 (currently 1.08).
  • 25% TARIFF – SPX falls 1.25% – 1.75%. 10Y yield declines 12-14bps. EUR/USD lower as USD behaves as a safety haven, with EUR/USD falling to 1.03 – 1.05
  • 35% TARIFF – SPX falls 2% – 3%. 10Y yield falls 20bps. EUR/USD falls to 1.01 – 1.03.

On EU sectors vs. tariffs, JPM expect:

  • EU Pharma: Potential US tariffs expected to have a manageable impact, though many questions remain unanswered around key details.
  • Global Spirits: Financial impact likely to be substantial, ranging JPME 8-48% on annual EBIT. Believe mitigation through pricing will be limited, given sector has already derated YTD < asymmetric risk rewards if tariffs delayed/scrapped.
  • EU Autos: If tariffs go ahead, on avg. c. 25% earnings cut to its FY25 estimates for German OEMs and Stellantis. JPM add this is the lower bound of impact. Overall, JPM remain tactically bearish.

Market Impact

  • WHAT DOES A GOOD OUTCOME LOOK LIKE – A low (10% or less) blanket tariff that does not include VAT with a stated willingness to discuss sectoral tariffs which include 25% on aluminum/steel, 25% on Autos, 200% on Champagne/wine from the EU, and potentially 25% on Chips and Pharmaceuticals. Further, avoiding tariffs on shipping vessels would be a positive.
  • WHAT DOES A BAD OUTCOME LOOK LIKE – A higher than expected blanket tariff, which includes VAT, plus additional sectoral tariffs. Further, any bans on sales or the implementation of fines/tariffs on shipping vessels would be a materially worse outcome, e.g., a full ban on chip sales to China. According to Bloomberg, NVDA received ~17% of its FY24 revenue from China.

Likely Tariff Levels (per JPMorgan)

  • CANADA / MEXICO – JPM does not think that we see additional tariffs mentioned, instead sticking with the 25% tariffs that were delayed.
  • CHINA – currently, the tariff level is 20% but given that China consumes Venezuelan oil, that adds another 25%. A deal on TikTok could reduce these levels, but that announcement may be on/before the current April 5 deadline to sell or restrict TikTok.
  • EU – while Trump had mentioned 25%, Bloomberg reported last week that the EU planned concessions for Trump so this could mean a lower rate in the 10% – 15% range.
  • JAPAN – given the willingness to negotiation and to add further investment in the US, it seems possible that Japan receives a lower rate, perhaps lower than the EU, say 10%.

JPM’s proposed Monetization Menu:

  • Country-Level: we look at Australia, Japan, and the UK as being relative safety havens. China may work, too, given the potential to add fiscal stimulus but that is a lower conviction long.
  • US Sector Level: Energy and Utilities (ex-AI plays) are the two best longs and look for Lower-Income Discretionary and higher beta TMT plays as being among the more consensus shorts. Separately, parts of Fins (GSIBs, Insurance, Payment Processors) could be safety havens.
  • FICC: Look for Credit to outperform Equities on the move lower. We like precious metals, crude, and natgas as longs.

Overall, JPM remain tactically bearish: 

  • “Policy uncertainty is the dominant factor in the markets and that neither the Trump Put nor Fed Put activate in the near-term.” 
  • Further, they see downward pressure on the soft economic data though hard data is likely to remain resilient, potentially putting a floor on the next US downdraft. 
  • That said, one potential event that could break the bearish outlook is the announcement of a trade deal, or framework of one, with a G7 country ahead of the announcement, e.g. US/UK deal could allow the market to look through tariffs on places such as the EU and/or Japan.

More in the full JPMorgan secnario analysis available here to pro subs.

WEEKEND HEADLINES

US Broader Tariffs

  • US President Trump is said to be pushing senior advisers to go bigger on tariff policy as they prepare for ‘Liberation Day’ on April 2nd and reportedly revived the idea of a flat universal tariff single rate on most imports, according to Washington Post. It was also noted that the option viewed as most likely, publicly outlined by Treasury Secretary Bessent this month, would set tariffs on products from the 15% of countries the administration deems the worst US trading partners which account for almost 90% of imports.
  • US President Trump said he will hit essentially all countries that they’re talking about with tariffs this week and commented that there will be a deal on TikTok before the deadline, according to Reuters.
  • US President Trump’s closest allies including Vice President Vance, Chief of Staff Wiles and cabinet officials have privately indicated they are unsure exactly what President Trump will do during the April 2nd announcement of global tariffs, according to Politico.

US Auto Tariffs

  • US President Trump’s recent 25% auto tariff announcement made no mention of USMCA trade deal side letters shielding Canada and Mexico from potential auto tariffs which showed Canada and Mexico were each granted annual duty-free import quotas of 2.6mln cars and unlimited light trucks if Trump imposed global tariffs. Furthermore, Canada said it fully expects the US to honor the 2018 tariff pledges and it reserves the right to take retaliatory measures, while Mexico is evaluating the legal implications of the agreement on Trump’s ‘Section 232’ auto tariff probe.
  • US President Trump’s Trade Adviser Navarro said auto tariffs will raise about $100BN and the other tariffs are to raise about $600BN a year, according to a Fox interview.

UK

  • UK PM Starmer spoke with US President Trump on Sunday evening in which they discussed productive negotiations between their respective teams on a UK-US economic prosperity deal and agreed that these will continue at pace this week. It was also reported that UK Home Secretary Cooper refused to rule out retaliating to US tariffs on cars and steel, according to Bloomberg.

France

  • French Ministry of Foreign Trade said France and Europe will defend their businesses, consumers and values, while it added that US interference in the inclusion policies of French companies is unacceptable.
  • French Commerce Minister reiterated that France would implement reciprocal tariffs if the US goes ahead with its tariff measures this week. Hoping to avoid a trade war. The Minister intends to have talks with the US Embassy in Paris to voice opposition to the US’ order for French firms to comply with a diversity band.

Germany

  • German Chancellor Scholz said they stand by Canada’s side and that Canada is not a state that belongs to anyone else, while he added that Europe’s goal is cooperation but the EU will respond as one if the US leaves them with no choice such as with tariffs on steel and aluminium.

China

  • China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi said higher US tariffs on Chinese goods are unreasonable and harm global markets. (Comments made in China’s Tuesday session).

LatAm

  • Brazil’s President Lula said he will negotiate on tariffs before retaliating, according to Bloomberg. It was also reported that Brazil’s Finance Minister Haddad said the country is in a privileged position to withstand the trade war with the commodity exporter’s links to China, the US and the EU to shield it from Drotectionism. accordina to FT

OTHER RECENT HEADLINES

28th March

  • EU plans concessions for Trump after reciprocal tariffs hit, according to Bloomberg sources
  • Chinese State Media says China will “certainly respond with countermeasures if the US insists on harming China’s interests regarding the April 2nd tariffs”; if they want to discuss cooperation with China, mutual respect is a prerequisite.
  • US President Trump and Canada PM Camey held a very constructive phone call, according to both sides; Camey told Trump he will implement retaliatory tariffs.
  • US President Trump says will be announcing pharma tariffs soon; is willing to make deals on tariffs, deals on averting auto tariffs would come later.

27th March

  • US President Trump posted on Truth “If the European Union works with Canada in order to do economic harm to the USA, large scale Tariffs, far larger than currently planned, will be placed on them both”
  • Canadian PM Carney says its response to these latest tariffs is to fight; they will fight the US tariffs with retaliatory trade actions of its own; clear US is no longer a reliable partner

26th March

  • US President Trump may implement copper tariffs within weeks, according to Bloomberg
  • The US will reportedly not take all non-tariff barriers (e g. VAT) in determining reciprocal Tariff rates, according to CNBC
  • EU Top Trade Negotiator Sefcovic expects US President Trump to hit the bloc with tariffs of about 20% next week, via FT
  • EU expects Trump to set flat, double-digit tariff on April 2nd, according to Politico; According to two diplomats, suggested the tariff rate applied to the EU could be as high as 20 or 25%
  • US President Trump considers more limited tariff plans, automotive tariffs could be narrowed and reciprocal tariffs lowered in latest administration proposals, via WSJ
  • US President Trump announces to impose 25% tariffs on all cars not made in the US, while he said they will be doing tariffs on pharmaceuticals and tariffs on lumber
  • China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng spoke with USTR’s Greer by video call, via Xinhua; Both sides had candid and in depth exchange of views on economy and trade. China expressed solemn concerns on US tariffs and planned reciprocal tariffs.
  • 25th March
  • India is reportedly open to cutting tariffs on over half of US imports, worth USD 23bln, via Reuters citing sources; open to cutting tariffs to as low as 0 from a 5- 30% range on 55% of US imports
  • India proposes to remove the 6% tariff imposed on online advertisement services offered by companies such as Google (GOOG) and Meta (META), known widely as the Google tax, from April 1st which is a day before Trump’s reciprocal tariffs take effect.
  • US President Trump considers a two-step tariff regime on April 2nd, according to FT; Possible phased approach to new US levies reflects debate over trade strategy within administration.
  • US President Trump says he has April 2nd tariffs set, and he has been fair to countries that abused US for many decades

24th March:

  • Trump implements secondary tariff on Venezuela; anyone who buys oil/gas from Venezuela will face an additional 25% tariff on all US trade.
  • US President Trump says they will be announcing tariffs on autos, aluminium and pharmaceuticals in the very near future.
  • Trump says he will announce additional tariffs over the next few days on autos, lumber, and chips
  • Trump says he may give a lot of countries breaks on tariffs.

22nd March (weekend)

  • President Donald Trump’s coming wave of tariffs is poised to be more targeted than the barrage he has occasionally threatened, aides and allies say, a potential relief for markets gripped by anxiety about an all-out tariff war. (Bloomberg)

21st March

  • France reportedly to float using EU’s most powerful trade tool on US, according to Bloomberg
  • US President Trump says there will be flexibility on tariffs, basically it’s reciprocal; they can’t be expected to carry Canada.
  • UK government reportedly considering plans to reduce or even abolish its digital services tax before April 2nd, via Bloomberg.

20th March

  • US President Trump says he believes India is probably going to be lowering tariffs substantially but on April 2nd, we will be charging them the same tariffs they charge us
  • EU’s Trade Commissioner Sefcovic says the Commission is considering delaying first set of counter-tariffs against the US to mid-April

19th March

  • US President Trump’s aides are planning new tariffs on “trillions” more in imports on April 2nd, according to WaPo
  • EU is reportedly to tighten steel import quotas as of April 1st, via Reuters citing sources; to reduce inflows by 15%

18th March

  • US President Trump’s team reportedly explored a simplified plan for reciprocal tariffs in which they recently debated sorting trading partners into one of three tiers instead of equalising tariff rates with every nation, according to WSJ

17th March:

  • US President Trump says he has no intention of creating exemptions on steel and aluminium tariffs, while he adds reciprocal tariffs will happen on April 2nd
  • USTR’s Greer imposes policy process on reciprocal tariff plan; President Trump’s top trade negotiator is attempting to inject order into sweeping new tariffs expected next month, after previous announcements roiled markets and fueled business uncertainty
  • India reportedly weighs lower tariffs for US medical devices, according to Economic Times

13th March:

  • Trump said the EU put a 50% tariff on whiskey, if this is not removed, the US will place a 200% tariff on wines, champagnes and other alcoholic products coming out of France and other EU represented countries.
  • Canada’s Ontario Premier says they had a productive meeting with US Commerce Secretary Lutnick and will have another meeting next week, adds feel temperatures are decreasing and it was the best meeting they had since tariff talks began

TARIFF TALLY (SO FAR)

US Tariff Policy

  • US reciprocal Tariffs: Trump on February 13th signed his plan for reciprocal tariffs, albeit delayed their implementation. The delay allows Trump admin to launch negotiations on a one-by-one basis with nations that could be impacted. The studies of each country could be completed by April 1st.
  • US tariffs on steel and aluminium: US President Trump signed proclamations on Monday 10th February 2025 to reimpose a 25% tariff on steel and aluminium imports and declared there are no exceptions or exemptions, effective March 12th.
  • US tariffs on agriculture: Trump: To the Great Farmers of the United States: Get ready to start making a lot of agricultural product to be sold INSIDE of the United States. Tariffs will go on external product on April 2nd. Have fun!”

Canada/Mexico

  • US on Canada and Mexico: Tariffs on imports from these countries have been paused for 30 days to allow for negotiations on border security and drug trafficking issues. Pause was initiated on February 3, 2025, is set to expire on March 4, 2025, at 12:01am. The pause expired, with Trump stating ‘there is no room left for a deal on tariffs on Mexico and Canada”.
  • US tariff rollback: A day after the tariffs came into effect, Trump said he would temporarily spare carmakers from a new 25% import tax imposed on Canada and Mexico. Two days after imposing tariffs, Trump announced that duties on a wide range of products would be shelved until April 2nd.
  • Canada’s retaliatory tariffs: Following the end of the pause on March 4th, Canada said it would start with 25% tariffs on US imports worth CAD 30bln from Tuesday, while it will impose tariffs on an additional CAD 125bln worth of US imports in 21 days (albeit second wave suspended for now). Furthermore, it said tariffs will remain in place until the US trade action is withdrawn and it is in active discussions with provinces and territories to pursue several non-tariff measures if US tariffs do not cease.
  • 50% US tariff and Canadian Energy Surcharge rollback: Trump on March 11th initially instructed the Commerce Secretary to impose an additional 25%, to 50%, on all steel and aluminium coming into the US from Canada from March 12th although he later backed down from this threat after Ontario’s Premier announced they are suspending the 25% surcharge on exports of electricity.

China

  • US on China: Additional 10% tariff on top of existing levies, no exclusions, came into effect at 12:01 EST on February 4th. Note, Trump did not clarify whether or not imports of Chinese metals would face double tariffs, as he has already imposed a 10% tariff on Chinese goods. Extra 10% duty came into effect at 12:01EST on March 4th.
  • China’s retaliatory tariffs: Chinese tariffs against the US took effect on February 10th and with officials also said to be building a list of US tech firms for potential probes. China imposed 15% tariffs on US coal & LNG, 10% tariffs on US oil, agricultural machines, and some autos; Tariffs imposed in direct response to Trump’s 10% tariffs, according to the Chinese Finance Ministry. China also announced export controls (no specific country mentioned) on tungsten, tellurium, bismuth, molybdenum and indium. Following the US’ extra 10%, on March 4th, China announced 15% on US chicken, wheat, com, and cotton; 10% on US soybeans, sorghum, pork, beef, aquatic products, fruits, vegetables, and dairy products; 15 US entities to the export control list; 10 US firms to the unreliable entity list; banned the import of Illumina (ILMN) gene sequence machines to China.

TARIFF TIMELINE

  • February 1st – Trump signed an executive order to impose 10% tariffs on all imports from China and 25% on imports from Mexico and Canada starting Feb 4th.
  • February 3rd – Trump agreed to a 30-day pause on tariffs against Canada and Mexico.
  • February 4th – US additional 10% tariff on China on top of existing levies came into effect. Chinese export controls on tungsten, tellurium, bismuth, molybdenum and indium took effect (no specific countries mentioned).
  • February 10th – Chinese tariffs against the US took effect (15% tariffs on US coal & LNG, 10% tariffs on US oil).
  • February 13th – Trump signed his plan for reciprocal tariffs, albeit delayed the implementation.
  • March 4th – Tariff pause on Mexico and Canada expired; Additional 10% tariffs on China went into effect on top of Feb 4th tariffs. Canada announced retaliatory tariffs over 21 days, Mexico said it will also respond with retaliatory tariffs.
  • March 5th – Trump allowed a one-month exemption on Mexico and Canada tariffs of US automakers following talks with Ford (F), General Motors (GM) and Stellantis (STLAM IM/STLAP FP)
  • March 6th – Trump postponed the initial 25% tariffs on several imports from Mexico and some imports from Canada for a month. In response, Canada suspended its second wave of retaliatory tariffs.
  • March 10th – China’s retaliatory tariffs on certain US agricultural imports (15% on US chicken, wheat, corn, and cotton; 10% on US soybeans, sorghum, pork, beef, aquatic products, fruits, vegetables, and dairy products) went into effect; announced on March 4th in response to the extra 10% US tariff on top of Feb 4th tariffs.
  • March 11th – Trump threatened 50% tariffs on Canada, although he later backed down from this threat after Ontario’s Premier announced they are suspending the 25% surcharge on exports of electricity. Trump separately suggested tariffs may go higher than 25% but did not specify which tariffs.
  • March 12th – 25% tariff on steel and aluminium imports came into effect, with “no exceptions or exemptions”; European Commission launched countermeasures on US imports while it is putting forward a package of new countermeasures.
  • April 1st – Completion of the US trade policy review.
  • April 2nd – US Liberation Day; 1) Auto tariffs “in the neighbourhood of 25%” comes into effect, 2) US tariffs on “external” agricultural products to go into effect, 3) Temporary tariff relief for Canada and Mexico expires. 4) Reciprocal tariffs kick in – details to be unveiled on the day; US President Trump to announce reciprocal tariffs at 15:00EDT/20:00BST.
  • April 13th – EU countermeasures against 25% steel and aluminium tariff to be fully in place.
  • TBC – pharma and semiconductors tariffs.

Developing

Tyler Durden
Wed, 04/02/2025 – 16:30

Big Balls To The Rescue: DOGE Saves A Terabyte Of Data Destroyed By Exiting USIP Employees

Big Balls To The Rescue: DOGE Saves A Terabyte Of Data Destroyed By Exiting USIP Employees

Authored by Monica Showalter via AmericanThinker.com,

I’ve never heard anything good about the United States Institute for Peace.

It’s been in bed with neocons, coupmeisters, and the Soros color revolution crowd for years. The quasi-government agency that runs like a private NGO is always sneaky and non-transparent.

So it didn’t surprise me a bit to learn that USIP showed unusual resistance to anyone poking into their spending from DOGE.

They even called the cops on DOGE, only to get arrested and hauled off themselves:

And they seem to have had a siphoning game going on:

According to a hostile, biased report from Newsweek:

Elon Musk has accused the U.S. Institute of Peace (USIP) of deleting a terabyte of financial data to “cover their crimes.”

Musk reposted a claim from the Conservative page ‘amuse’ on X (formerly Twitter) which stated that the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) had found USIP contracts going to Afghanistan’s former chief of protocol, who had been a member of the Taliban, and to the Iraqi League for Youth.

Musk wrote on X: “They deleted a terabyte of financial data to cover their crimes, but they don’t understand technology, so we recovered it.”

Nothing they did ever had the slightest relationship to promoting “peace.”

They had an opaque structure that was an invitation to corruption:

The most vivid and satisfying aspect of this story is that the USIP characters tried to destroy data to hide their acts — and ran into BigBalls, or someone like him at DOGE, who quietly recovered the data they tried to destroy.

Sometimes, the good guys really do win, and for the most embarrassing of reasons for the bad guys — they didn’t know tech like Elon’s team knows tech.

Now their chief may be facing criminal charges based on this bid to avoid accountability.

What were they hiding? It must have been something pretty big. But whatever it was, it’s satisfying to know that they need to respect the will of the people who pay their paychecks and bankroll their slush funds, and like any NGO, need to provide a minimum of accountability with no record destruction.

One can only hope that they will be made an example of, if for nothing else, to deter the others.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 04/02/2025 – 16:20

“Yeah, Fake News”: Musk Denies Politico Musk Report

“Yeah, Fake News”: Musk Denies Politico Musk Report

Update (1605ET): 

Aaand here’s the denial. White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt has called Politico‘s scoop “garbage,” adding “lon Musk and President Trump have both *publicly* stated that Elon will depart from public service as a special government employee when his incredible work at DOGE is complete.”

“Yeah, fake news,” Musk replied.

Though we would note that ‘stepping back’ (Politico) does not equal ‘departing’ (WH).

*  *  *

Best sellers at ZH Store:

Click picture, check out knife…

*  *  *

Shares of Tesla rose on Wednesday following an anonymously sourced Politico report (keeping in mind Musk just yanked millions in government ‘subscriptions’ from them) that President Trump has told his inner circle that Musk would be stepping back from his advisory role in the coming weeks.

Musk, who Politico describes as “governing partner, ubiquitous cheerleader and Washington hatchet man” (totally not salty), claims that Trump “remains pleased with Musk and his Department of Government Efficiency initiative but both men have decided in recent days that it will soon be time for Musk to return to his businesses and take on a supporting role.

Then Politico gets extra nasty – writing that “Musk’s looming retreat comes as some Trump administration insiders and many outside allies have become frustrated with his unpredictability and increasingly view the billionaire as a political liability, a dynamic that was thrown into stark relief Tuesday when a conservative judge Musk vocally supported lost his bid for a Wisconsin Supreme Court seat by 10 points.”

One anonymous official allegedly told Politico that Musk is likely to retain an informal advisory role and continue to be an occasional face around the White House, while another said that anyone who thinks Musk is going to disappear entirely from Trump’s orbit is “fooling themselves.”

As we noted above, shares of Musk-owned Tesla rose more than 5% on the report.

While Polymarket odds that he’ll be out as the head of DOGE in 2025 spiked as well.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 04/02/2025 – 16:05

Will Today Go Down In History As The Beginning Of A New Era?

Will Today Go Down In History As The Beginning Of A New Era?

To paraphrase Michael Every’s earlier take, “will today go down in history, marking the end of one era and the beginning of another?” 

That’s the question asked by DB’s Jim Reid who notes that only time, and subsequent negotiations, will tell. However, as the DB credit strategist notes, “tariff announcements today could well take us into uncharted territory.”

According to Deutsche Bank’s calculations, the previously announced measures already bring the US to a 12% average tariff rate, the highest since World War II. 

And then, today’s announcement could increase this to 18%, and potentially even higher if the reported near-universal 20% tariff option is implemented. 

This would approach the levels seen in the early 1930s after the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, though likely remaining below the very protectionist rates of the early 20th century. 

This earlier period has been cited by Trump and Lutnick as a golden era for the US (presumably this excludes the Great Depression that followed the Smoot Hawley protectionism). Reid’s points out that the recent Lutnick and Bessent podcasts highlight Lutnick’s emphasis on tariffs as the foundation the US economy was built on, noting the absence of income tax until 1913 during what he considers the nation’s wealthiest period. 

He argues that post-World War II tariff reductions were a strategic move to aid global reconstruction, with the understanding that other countries would maintain higher tariffs. 

However, he now believes this imbalance has persisted too long, requiring a new approach.

In one respect, we’ve already returned to McKinley-era levels. Because trade represents a larger share of the economy today, Reid notes that tariff revenue as a percentage of GDP is already set to slightly exceed 1%, based on the announced tariffs on China (20%), Canada and Mexico (partial 25%), and steel, aluminum, and autos (25%). This puts us back in McKinley territory, and we’re likely to surpass it today (chart right below).

As such, Reid concludes that “any announcement today will be subject to negotiation, but the starting point will likely be era-defining.”

Tyler Durden
Wed, 04/02/2025 – 15:40

Will Today’s Trump Moves Force The Fed To Act?

Will Today’s Trump Moves Force The Fed To Act?

Authored by Peter Tchir via Academy Securities,

Apparently today at 4:00 pm we will learn the details of this wave of tariffs.

Treasury Secretary said yesterday that this will represent a “cap” on tariffs and basically the starting point of negotiations from here (we will see if that messaging sticks).

What I think we know:

  • Relatively little “negotiating” has occurred, which I believe is not what the administration expected. Other countries are “playing” the President differently than they did during Trump 1.0. It also probably doesn’t help that this time around, there is no “divide and conquer”.

  • Other countries are already having conversations about trade, bypassing the U.S.  Apparently, Japan, China and South Korea are talking. That makes sense as the U.S. policy toward Taiwan is unclear and that could dramatically impact South Korea and Japan. Canada and Mexico are apparently having discussions. I’m sure Europe (or some countries within Europe) are having a variety of trade dialogues (it is really, really, really important to notice that they do not want to spend their increased military spending on U.S. equipment – to the extent they can avoid it).

  • Other countries are likely going through their tariffs, line by line, estimating which ones they can give in on, with minimal impact and which ones are important. Given that the U.S. is fighting with everyone and allegedly still hasn’t finalized its plan, we are likely to not fare well at the granular level.

  • The Geopolitical actions so far – from NATO, to Russia/Ukraine, to 51st State, to “take” Greenland, etc., have only added to the questions about dealing with the U.S. that other countries have.

  • The U.S. does not have a lot of excess capacity (it will take time to build) and so far no legislation on the deregulation front  

Deliberate/Thoughtful Tariffs :

  • Risk Assets can and should rally. If these sort of tariffs had been the starting point, we could probably move on. But they weren’t and coupled with the issues listed above, I think the rally will stall. It will need indications that global tensions with trading partners have eased to reduce. It will be curious to see how his base responds? Will there be any erosion of the aura of “the art of the deal”?

Medium Level of Tariffs:

  • Anything less than 15% to 20% across the board tariffs. I expect slight risk asset rally (market seem desperate to rally on certainty) but think that fades quickly and we drift lower, trading on headlines going forward. 

Aggressive Tariffs

  • Immediate sell-off in risk assets. Stocks drop 3% or more quickly with ongoing selling pressure. 10-year treasury likely breaks 4%.

I hear a lot of chatter that the policies will force the Fed to act

Maybe but, I think the Fed will act late and it will be too small relative to the total revamp of global trade to stop the slide. 

There were a lot of easier ways to get the Fed to cut – like stick to “drill baby drill”, reduce regulations (ideally via legislation as opposed to executive orders), etc. 

The whole “this is all to get the Fed to cut” is incredibly risky (who knows what was set in motion) and only seems to have gotten traction because Wall Street doesn’t want to believe how much this administration believes in the benefits of tariffs.

Hopefully I will be disappointed and wrong and markets can rally and threats to the global economy can be greatly reduced, but I think once we get beyond debating the tariffs, we will be forced to digest the mess that global trade is in, and that cannot be good for corporate earnings or the economy.

For better or for worse, here is Academy on Bloomberg TV this morning, where, the jetlag worked in my favor as I was up at 3 am anyways 

Should be an interesting few days, to say the least!

Tyler Durden
Wed, 04/02/2025 – 12:40

Tesla Shares Rise Over Report That Musk To ‘Step Back’ From DOGE

Tesla Shares Rise Over Report That Musk To ‘Step Back’ From DOGE

Shares of Tesla rose on Wednesday following an anonymously sourced Politico report (keeping in mind Musk just yanked millions in government ‘subscriptions’ from them) that President Trump has told his inner circle that Musk would be stepping back from his advisory role in the coming weeks.

Musk, who Politico describes as “governing partner, ubiquitous cheerleader and Washington hatchet man” (totally not salty), claims that Trump “remains pleased with Musk and his Department of Government Efficiency initiative but both men have decided in recent days that it will soon be time for Musk to return to his businesses and take on a supporting role.

Then Politico gets extra nasty – writing that “Musk’s looming retreat comes as some Trump administration insiders and many outside allies have become frustrated with his unpredictability and increasingly view the billionaire as a political liability, a dynamic that was thrown into stark relief Tuesday when a conservative judge Musk vocally supported lost his bid for a Wisconsin Supreme Court seat by 10 points.”

One anonymous official allegedly told Politico that Musk is likely to retain an informal advisory role and continue to be an occasional face around the White House, while another said that anyone who thinks Musk is going to disappear entirely from Trump’s orbit is “fooling themselves.”

As we noted above, shares of Musk-owned Tesla rose more than 5% on the report.

While Polymarket odds that he’ll be out as the head of DOGE in 2025 spiked as well.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 04/02/2025 – 12:20

Putin Envoy Visits Washington For Talks In First Since 2022 Ukraine Invasion

Putin Envoy Visits Washington For Talks In First Since 2022 Ukraine Invasion

Earlier this week the Kremlin said it has given the Trump White House formal notification and evidence showing that Ukraine has continued attacking Russian energy sites, despite the US-backed agreement for each side to refrain from hitting this infrastructure.

On Wednesday Putin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that so far there’s been no response from the Trump administration. “So far, there has been no reaction to such actions by the Kiev regime,” Peskov said.

Previously Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov described that a list of violations had been handed over to US National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Russia’s representatives in the UN and the OSCE, “so that they in their work would present concrete facts demonstrating what the word of the Ukrainian authorities is worth,” according to TASS.

Kirill Dmitriev (right) is in Washington this week. Getty Images

But Ukraine has said it has done the same thing, as both sides have lately accused the other of violating the partial ceasefire. “We have passed on all the necessary information about Russian violations in the energy sector,” President Zelensky said in a Tuesday evening address.

He has called on Washington to strengthen sanctions on Russia, and as of Thursday the US Treasury has issued some further anti-Russia sanctions on its website.

“I believe we have come to the point of increasing the sanctions impact, because I believe that the Russians are violating what they have promised America. At least what America has told us, and publicly,” Zelensky said.

This week for the first time a top Russian negotiator and Putin representative will meet with Trump official Steve Witkoff in Washington. The US has temporarily waved sanctions on the Russian official in order to grant him a visa for the visit.

“His visit will mark the first time a senior Russian official has visited Washington, DC, for talks since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022 and marks a further step in the marked warming in relations between the two countries since President Donald Trump returned to office in January,” CNN writes.

Kirill Dmitriev is a “close adviser to Putin and traveled with top Russian officials to Riyadh in Saudi Arabia in February to start discussing a settlement for the end of the war in Ukraine,” the report notes. “He also worked with Witkoff to free American teacher Marc Fogel from Russia, which the Trump administration hailed as a goodwill gesture.”

As for where overall negotiations to end the war in Ukraine stand, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov said Tuesday that current US proposals on ending the war can’t be accepted in their current form.

He complained they don’t address the “root causes” and that Kiev doesn’t appear ready to get serious about pursuing peace.

“What we have today is an effort to find a framework that would make it possible to ensure America’s vision for a ceasefire. The idea is to then move on to some other models and frameworks, which, as far as we can see, leave no room for Russia’s core demand, that is, the need to resolve the issues stemming from the root causes of this conflict,” he said, as quoted in TASS.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 04/02/2025 – 12:00

How Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ Tariffs Are Set To Reshape Global Trade

How Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ Tariffs Are Set To Reshape Global Trade

Authored by Emel Akan and Andrew Moran via The Epoch Times,

President Donald Trump is set to announce reciprocal tariffs for all nations starting April 2, the date he has dubbed “Liberation Day.”

Companies, markets, and governments are on edge, expecting the move to send shockwaves across the globe.

Liberation Day will impact all countries, Trump told reporters over the weekend aboard Air Force One. However, some countries will be more vulnerable due to their high trade imbalances with the United States and significant trade barriers against American goods, including China, India, the European Union, Canada, Mexico, the United Kingdom, Vietnam, Japan, and South Korea.

The president will reveal details of his tariff plan at a White House Rose Garden event Wednesday afternoon after the stock markets close.

Speaking to reporters from the Oval Office on March 31, Trump stated that his tariff rates will be lower—and in certain instances “substantially lower”—than what other countries have been charging the United States.

“We are going to be very nice by comparison to what they were,” the president said. “We have a world obligation, perhaps, but we’re going to be very nice, relatively speaking. We’re going to be very kind.”

On Feb. 13, the president unveiled the concept, describing it as a “fair and reciprocal plan” for trade by raising U.S. levies to match duties that other nations impose on U.S. products.

He instructed his team to assess and recommend tariffs on countries that impose significant barriers to U.S. products, including tariffs, value-added taxes, and other non-tariff restrictions. The assessment will also consider the foreign exchange policies of America’s trading partners.

Trump’s tariff policies are anticipated to have a significantly broader impact on products, industries, and countries affected by tariffs compared to previous administrations. According to an estimate by consulting firm PwC, the measures could increase U.S. tariff revenues from $76 billion annually to almost $697 billion.

A key objective behind the administration’s tariff plans is to reverse America’s decades-long trade deficit.

The United States has recorded trade deficits every year since 1976. Last year, the U.S. goods and services trade gap surpassed $918 billion—a 17 percent increase from 2023.

Many factors have contributed to this decades-long trend. A low national savings rate, for example, has resulted in a higher dependence on foreign capital to fund investments. Foreign markets’ comparative advantage, mainly in the form of lower labor costs, has also led to cheaper imports, satisfying ferocious domestic consumption.

White House officials, including U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, believe tariffs could be a part of the solution to undo ongoing trade deficits.

“Part of the question is how large of a trade deficit do we want, because the trade deficit represents, in large part, manufacturing jobs that have [gone] overseas,” Greer told the Senate Finance Committee in February.

He also noted that worsening trade imbalances with particular countries were a “huge problem.”

In 2024, China ranked first, with the U.S. trade deficit reaching $295 billion. This was followed by the European Union ($236 billion), Mexico ($172 billion), Vietnam ($124 billion), Taiwan ($74 billion), and Japan ($69 billion).

Economists argue that the administration’s sweeping trade policy changes will have the greatest impact on industries that have traditionally benefited from low or no tariffs. As a result, these industries will be forced to evaluate the costs and benefits—such as logistics, tax rates, and tariffs—of relocating production to the United States.

Last year, the top U.S. importer jurisdictions were Mexico, China, Canada, Germany, and Japan.

Sectors Most Affected By New Tariffs

Higher tariff rates will impact a wide range of sectors and countries.

Automobile manufacturing in Canada, Germany, Japan, and Mexico could be the hardest hit. The auto industry will navigate potential disruptions from reciprocal tariffs and Trump’s higher import duties on steel, aluminum, foreign vehicles, and car parts.

Canada’s oil and gas sector is also expected to be hammered. The United States imports more than 4 million barrels of crude per day—up significantly from 15 years ago.

Since returning to the White House, Trump has already imposed tariffs on China over its failure to address its role in illicit fentanyl trafficking into the United States. Now, with the introduction of  reciprocal tariffs, China could face major disruptions in its exports of smartphone technology and lithium-ion batteries, the two items most heavily shipped to the United States.

Other industries facing significant impacts include critical medicines and health care equipment, which are primarily sourced from India, Ireland, and Switzerland.

The European Union and emerging markets could take a hit from reciprocal tariffs, says Mary Park Durham, a research analyst at JPMorgan Chase.

First, the E.U. accounts for approximately one-fifth of U.S. imports and registered a trade surplus.

“While the U.S. and EU have similar average tariff rates of 3.4% and 4.1% on each other’s imports, respectively, disparities arise at the product level,” she said in a note.

The U.S. government has highlighted the bloc’s value-added taxes (VATs), which it views as tariffs. VATs are consumption taxes absorbed by producers at each stage in the supply chain and consumers at the point of sale. The EU’s VAT rate averages 20 percent, higher than the average U.S. sales tax rate of 6.6 percent.

While the U.S. Trade Representative’s 2025 National Trade Estimate Report did not specify Europe’s VATs, White House officials have rebuked the policy, calling it a “double whammy.”

“No wonder Germany sells eight times as many cars to us as we do to them, and President Trump is no longer going to tolerate that,” an official told reporters in February.

Second, emerging markets such as Brazil and India maintain high average tariff rates on all imports. These countries generally impose higher import duties to shield vulnerable domestic industries from foreign competition.

“The difference in tariff rates between emerging markets and the U.S. in their bilateral trade tends to be wider than that for developed markets,” said Brian Coulton, the chief economist at Fitch Ratings, in a report.

Brazil and India were spotlighted as examples of unfair trade practices in a White House fact sheet.

Brazil charges U.S. ethanol exports an 18 percent levy, compared to the U.S. rate of 2.5 percent. “As a result, in 2024, the U.S. imported over $200 million in ethanol from Brazil while the U.S. exported only $52 million in ethanol to Brazil,” the document stated.

India, meanwhile, imposes a 100 percent tariff on U.S. motorcycles. Conversely, the United States adds a 2.4 percent levy on Indian motorcycles, the White House said.

Countries Offering Concessions

A Bank of America report showed that the United States has the lowest trade barrier of any Group of 20 (G20) nations; the world’s largest economies.

“We’ve been taken advantage of for 40 years, maybe more, and it’s just not going to happen anymore,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One on March 28.

However, he said many countries are willing to make concessions and he didn’t rule out making deals with those countries.

“It’s possible if we can get something for the deal,” Trump said. “I’m certainly open to that.”

Some countries have already begun offering concessions. On April 1, Israel announced that it will remove all remaining tariffs on American products.

Prior to his long-awaited reciprocal tariff roll out, Trump has threatened to impose levies on friends and foes alike.

During the campaign trail and shortly after winning the election, the president said he would impose 100 percent tariffs on countries that engage in anti-dollar activities.

He also threatened 25 percent tariffs on Colombian agricultural products over a short-lived spat involving President Gustavo Petro’s refusal to accept its nationals deported from the United States. Trump rescinded the levies once Petro caved and accepted his citizens.

After Ontario Premier Doug Ford vowed to cut off electricity flowing from the Canadian province to several U.S. states, Trump stated he would double tariffs on Canada. He reversed the decision after Ford confirmed he would not shut off the power or add taxes to electricity exports.

Trump recently revealed that he plans to announce tariffs on lumber, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors.

A car hauler truck makes its way to the Ambassador Bridge to cross into Detroit from Windsor, Canada, on April 1, 2025. President Donald Trump has been referring to April 2 as “Liberation Day,” when his administration will begin implementing sweeping new tariffs on goods imported into the United States from other countries. Bill Pugliano/Getty Images

Days after implementing a blanket 25 percent tariff on cars and light trucks manufactured outside the United States, the president stated that he doesn’t care if automakers raise car prices for Americans.

If prices on foreign automobiles increase, customers will shift their buying preferences to American-made vehicles, he said.

“I couldn’t care less. I hope they raise their prices because if they do, people are gonna buy American-made cars. We have plenty,” Trump said in an interview with NBC’s Kristen Welker.

He added that higher prices would bolster U.S.-based manufacturers.

“If you make your car in the United States, you’re going to make a lot of money,” the president said. “If you don’t, you’re going to have to probably come to the United States, because if you make your car in the United States, there is no tariff.”

Auto tariffs are scheduled to take effect on April 3 and will be permanent.

Various individuals have been integral in crafting the president’s tariff plans.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters on March 31 that Vice President JD Vance has been “deeply involved” in trade discussions.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, White House economist Kevin Hassett, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, and senior counselor for trade and manufacturing Peter Navarro, have all contributed to shaping the tariff regime.

“All of these individuals have presented plans to the president on how to get this done, and it’s the president’s decision to make,” Leavitt said.

A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on April 1, 2025. Stocks opened up low as the market reacts to President Donald Trump’s April 2 expected proposal for a round of new tariffs. Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images

Tariffs Fuel Market Volatility

Financial markets have wiped out trillions of dollars in value over the last several weeks. Investors fear that tariffs will revive inflation and slow economic growth—surveys suggest the United States could slip into a recession.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index has slumped 5 percent in March. The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average fell about 1 percent last month. The broader S&P 500 has trimmed 3 percent to finish the first quarter.

Gold prices have extended their gains from last year, reaching a record high of $3,100 per ounce. The yellow metal gained 19 percent in the first quarter, fueled by strengthening safe-haven demand amid market turmoil.

U.S. Treasury yields have slumped since reaching a mid-January peak as traders concentrate on the economy’s long-term prospects.

The benchmark 10-year yield has fallen about 65 basis points to below 4.16 percent.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), a metric of the greenback against a basket of currencies, has declined 4 percent this year. Tariffs and structural changes have fueled the recent weakness.

Uncertainty has been a sizable force behind the enormous volatility but April 2 should resolve some of the anxieties plaguing investors, says Jeffrey Buchbinder, the chief equity strategist at LPL Financial.

“April 2 is a big day for the stock market,” Buchbinder said in a note emailed to The Epoch Times. “There will still be trade policy uncertainty after that date but the Trump administration is expected to clear up some of the biggest questions investors have right now.”

Tyler Durden
Wed, 04/02/2025 – 11:40

China Restricts Local Firms From Investing In US As Trump’s Reciprocal Tariffs D-Day Arrives

China Restricts Local Firms From Investing In US As Trump’s Reciprocal Tariffs D-Day Arrives

Hours before President Trump is set to announce reciprocal tariffs—threatening to unleash a global trade war on what he has called “Liberation Day”—the Chinese Communist Party is already preparing a financial counteroffensive. 

Bloomberg cites people familiar with the matter who say Beijing plans to restrict local companies from investing in the United States. This move would give the world’s second-largest economy more economic leverage in trade negotiations as Sino-U.S. tensions deteriorate.

Here’s more from the report:

Several branches of China’s top economic planning agency, the National Development and Reform Commission, have been instructed in recent weeks to hold off on registration and approval for firms that are looking to invest in the U.S., the people said, asking not to be identified discussing sensitive issues.

. . .

There’s no sign that existing commitments by Chinese companies in the U.S. and elsewhere, or China’s purchases and holdings of financial products including U.S. Treasuries, would be affected, the people said. It’s unclear what prompted the NDRC to halt the processing of applications or how long this suspension might last.

The economic decoupling between the U.S. and China continues to accelerate, driven by trade wars and President Trump, who believes, as he said over the weekend to NBC: “The world has been ripping off the United States for the last 40 years and more … and all we’re doing is being fair.”

Source Bloomberg

Trump’s planned reciprocal tariffs and China’s reported move to restrict outbound investment from local companies into the U.S. signals a new phase of superpower decoupling. This decoupling has been happening across multiple areas:

  • Technology 

  • Capital Flows

  • Trade  

Goldman analyst Chloe Garber commented on the BBG report, noting:

BBG reported this morning that China has taken steps to restrict local companies from investing in the U.S. ahead of new tariffs, people familiar said. Several branches of China’s top economic planning agency have been instructed in recent weeks to hold off on registration and approval for such firms. Simply put – there are a lot of unknowns here still and mkts hate the uncertainty.

With just hours to go before Trump’s “Liberation Day” announcement—expected around 4 p.m.—here’s everything you need to know to stay on top of the tariff news cycle (read: here).

Tyler Durden
Wed, 04/02/2025 – 11:20