Authored by Luis Cornelio via Headline USA,

The Trump administration has fired nearly half the bureaucrats at the obscure—and infamously named—U.S. Institute of Peace, as part of DOGE’s effort to cut government waste and reduce the size of the federal government. 

The mass firings, estimated to have affected between 200 and 300 workers and described by staffers as a “Friday night massacre,” came two weeks after President Donald Trump removed the agency’s president, Lise Grande. 

According to the liberal Washington Post, the Trump administration offered generous severance packages and an extra month of health insurance in exchange for workers signing agreements not to sue the government.  

The agreements are likely intended to avert additional lawsuits by bureaucrats attempting to force taxpayers to continue funding their salaries. 

What the U.S. Institute of Peace actually does was relatively unknown until it became a target of Trump’s downsizing efforts two weeks ago. 

Created by Congress in 1984, the self-described “nonpartisan” organization claimed via its Facebook page that it is “dedicated to protecting U.S. interests by helping to prevent violent conflicts and broker peace deals abroad.” 

It is unclear how USIP’s work differs from that of the already enormous Department of State and its global bureaucracy. 

“We put mediators in place to help stitch these communities back together,” an anonymous USIP employee told The Washington Post. 

“So it does have a dramatic effect on violence on the ground immediately by just pulling these assets out.” 

As recounted by the liberal newspaper, USIP attempted to challenge the White House’s authority to investigate its programs or fire workers, similar actions taken by the now-defunct U.S. Agency for International Development. 

USIP and members of the board filed a federal lawsuit, claiming that the executive branch lacks authority to shut down its operations because they were created by Congress. 

Sunday saw more threats directed at Iran by President Trump. He told NBC News in a phone interview, “If they don’t make a deal, there will be bombing. It will be bombing the likes of which they have never seen before.” This is the most explicit and direct threat yet, after similar rhetoric from the White House last week. Three weeks ago President Trump sent a letter to Iran’s Supreme Leader, urging fresh negotiations toward a new nuclear deal. 

In that letter, which the Iranians only much belatedly acknowledged, Trump had issued a two-month deadline for Iran to sign a new deal, warning that if not then Tehran could face military action. Axios and other outlets have highlighted the movement of B-2 stealth bombers in the Indian Ocean, connected with the warnings issued to Iran:

In recent days, the U.S. military sent several B-2 stealth bombers to the Diego Garcia military base in the Indian Ocean in a deployment a U.S. official said was “not disconnected” from Trump’s two-month deadline.

The same report notes, “The B-2 bombers can carry huge bunker buster bombs that would be a key element in any possible military action against Iran’s underground nuclear facilities.”

But the Islamic Republic has also long maintained underground ‘missile cities’. The immense size of these underground complexes would make it nearly impossible to take out all of Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities without an intense, sustained war.

If a new major war in the Middle East kicked off under the Trump administration, it would become deeply unpopular even among the conservative base. The public is generally war-weary, which is also why Trump is pushing hard for peace in Ukraine.

Any new US bombing campaign in Iran could also complicate US efforts for peace in Ukraine, further as in parallel the US tries to keep the Abraham Accords in the Middle East alive.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has responded to these new Trump threats, saying Sunday that any future diplomatic discussion depends on Washington’s behavior. 

“While Iran’s response rules out the possibility of direct talks between the two sides, it states that the path for indirect negotiations remains open,” he said. “As we have stated before, Iran has never closed the channels of indirect communication. In its response, Iran reaffirmed that it has never shied away from engaging in negotiations, but rather, it has just been the United States’ repeated violations of agreements and commitments that have created problems on this path,” Pezeshkian added.

That’s when the Iranian leader emphasized, “It’s the behavior of the Americans that will determine whether the negotiations can move forward.” Iran has distrusted the Americans ever since Trump pulled out of the 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal in April 2018. Currently Iran is only offering ‘indirect’ talks on the nuclear issue.

Lately the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has described that the Islamic Republic’s current stockpile of 60% enriched uranium – if enriched to 90% – would be enough to produce six nuclear bombs.

Trump has recently brought back ‘maximum pressure’ on Iran, and has even this week advanced the possibility of cracking down on sanctions-busting Iranian oil exports on the high seas, using naval intervention. Clearly this is part of the big stick package of actions meant to push Tehran to the table. And now he’s talking secondary tariffs on Iranian oil as well.

An earlier Fox News interview in February marked the point at which Trump first laid out that Iran has two choices. “Everybody thinks Israel with our help or our approval will go in and bomb the hell out of them,” Trump had said at the time while discussing potential Israeli military action against Tehran.

“I would prefer that not happen. I’d much rather see a deal with Iran where we can do a deal, supervise, check it, inspect it,” the president had emphasized.

Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,

• Some areas in the Permian have hit geological limits while others, yet to be drilled, are not expected to be as prolific as the prime Tier 1 acreage.

• Despite record U.S. crude oil production, limits to growth have started to emerge.

• In the Permian, the gas-to-oil ratio (GOR) has steadily risen from 34% of total production in 2014 to 40% in 2024.

After more than a decade of relentless drilling in the top U.S. oil-producing basin, the Permian, some areas have hit geological limits while others, yet to be drilled, are not expected to be as prolific as the prime Tier 1 acreage that producers have started to exhaust.

Top executives at major shale firms have already expressed opinions that Permian oil production could hit its peak as early as the end of this decade.

To be sure, crude oil output in the top basin continues to rise, but growth has slowed since 2022—not only because producers restrain capex and don’t drill themselves into oblivion.

Higher gas-to-oil ratio and water-to-oil ratio in the Permian suggest that some formations in the basin are reaching geological constraints, and more drilling isn’t necessarily proportionate to the oil volumes produced.

The Permian still leads U.S. oil production growth and will do so in the coming years, forecasters including the Energy Information Administration (EIA) say.

Total U.S. crude oil production is expected to average 13.61 million bpd this year, rising to 13.76 million bpd next year, according to the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook. 

Despite record U.S. crude oil production, limits to the growth have started to emerge, executives acknowledge.

Vicki Hollub, the chief executive of Occidental Petroleum, said at the CERAWeek conference early this month, “We think that between 2027 and 2030 it’s likely that the U.S. will see peak production, and after that some decline.”

Ryan Lance, CEO at ConocoPhillips, expects U.S. oil production to plateau this decade and remain flat for an undefined period of time after 2030.

“It’s going to be a slow decline beyond that because there’s a lot of resource” left to drill, Lance told the CERAWeek conference.

However, what’s left to drill may not be as oil-yielding as the best Permian locations, which were the first to be tapped by drillers.

Production of associated natural gas from the Permian, the Eagle Ford, and the Bakken oil wells has surged over the past decade, the EIA says.

In the Permian, the gas-to-oil ratio (GOR) has steadily risen from 34% of total production in 2014 to 40% in 2024.

Pressure within the reservoir declines as more oil is brought to the surface, which allows more natural gas to be released from the geologic formation. The pressure will also decrease as more wells are concentrated within an area, the EIA says.

Another ratio is even more suggestive of the Permian oil wells and the operating costs for drilling wells—produced water.

The water-to-oil ratio in the Permian is much higher than in other basins. On average, four barrels of water are produced for each barrel of oil, according to data from oilfield water analytics firm B3 Insight cited by Reuters.

While the Permian crude production is set to exceed 6.5 million bpd in 2025, up from more than 6 million bpd in 2024, the basin “is simultaneously generating an unprecedented volume of produced water—a costly and complex byproduct of hydrocarbon extraction,” B3 Insight said this week.

Crude-focused wells in the Permian account for the vast majority of the produced water generated in the leading U.S. shale plays, analysts at RBN Energy said last year.

The higher produced water ratio will ultimately drive costs for oil producers higher, according to Shannon Flowers, director of crude and water marketing at Coterra Energy.

“There are only so many places to drill, inject and frac, and as that goes down, you still have to find a home for the rest of your produced water,” Flowers told Reuters.

Higher costs to dispose of, reuse, or recycle produced water isn’t good news for U.S. oil producers who are already concerned with the U.S. Administration’s preference of a $50 a barrel oil price.

“There cannot be “U.S. energy dominance” and $50 per barrel oil; those two statements are contradictory. At $50-per-barrel oil, we will see U.S. oil production start to decline immediately and likely significantly (1 million barrels per day plus within a couple quarters),” an executive at an exploration and production firm wrote in comments to the Dallas Fed Energy Survey for the first quarter of 2025.

“The U.S. oil cost curve is in a different place than it was five years ago; $70 per barrel is the new $50 per barrel,” the executive noted.

Authored by Jonathan Turley via jonathanturley.org,

There is a major story developing on Capitol Hill after House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform Chairman James Comer, R-Ky, revealed that a long-withheld report from the Biden Administration directly contradicted the claims of climate change used to limit increased U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. The suggestion is that this was an knowing effort to cap carbon admissions rather than carbon emissions.

The impact that new U.S. LNG exports have on the environment and the economy was reviewed by U.S. Energy Department scientists and completed by September 2023. It appears that neither President Biden nor Secretary Jennifer Granholm liked the science or the conclusions. Rather than “follow the science,” they buried the report while allegedly making claims directly refuted by their own experts.

The report was finished while Biden was still running for reelection and would have likely enraged environmentalists. The draft study, “Energy, Economic, and Environmental Assessment of U.S. LNG Exports,” found that, under all modeled scenarios, an increase in U.S. LNG exports and natural gas production would not change global or U.S. greenhouse gas emissions. It further found that it would not increase energy prices for consumers.

Biden and Granholm reportedly buried the report and then announced a pause on all new U.S. LNG export terminals in January 2024, citing the danger to environmental and economic impacts.

Comer’s office told Fox News Digital that DOE repeatedly declined to provide this study to the House Oversight Committee or comply with other requests for information.

What is most concerning is that our LNG exports help reduce the dependence on Russia and would have decreased the revenues to that country to support its war in Ukraine. However, critics charge that Biden ignored the national security and economic benefits. Supporters note that we still exported a massive amount of LNG.

When the U.S. ramped up exports to Europe, progressive Democrats like Sen. Jeff Merkley, D-Ore., went ballistic. This appears to have worked in shelving the study while slowing demands for further increases.

The Biden Administration later released data in December 2024 suggesting that a rise in exports could cause consumer prices to rise by as much as 30%.

There are obviously two sides to this debate. The problem is that it seems that only one side was allowed to be publicly presented by the delay in the release of the study.

* * *

You can support ZeroHedge with the purchase of a high-quality, very sharp, durable ZeroHedge Multitool.

Update:

There has been a race against time to uncover the complex web of dark-money-funded, far-left NGOs fueling the Tesla Takedown color revolution operation that far-left corporate media outlets have cheerleaded.

The Daily Show is justifying and practically celebrating the attacks on Teslas and Tesla locations—suggesting Elon deserves it. The audience erupts in CHEERS to footage of Teslas on fire.

They “prove” people are mad at Elon by playing clips from townhalls which feature… pic.twitter.com/wueg9RRseD

— Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) March 20, 2025

With hate and violence being incited by the left through its network of radical NGOs and fake news media allies, it’s only a matter of time before someone is seriously injured or killed.

Chaos escalated this weekend after one crazed Democrat resorted to a vehicle-ramming attack against a pro-Tesla supporter. 

Tesla Protests Turn Violent: Pro-Musk Demonstrator Struck With Car, Woman Beaten On Side Of Road https://t.co/dKAtWPEdrL

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 30, 2025

As we first pointed out on Sunday morning, former Wall Street Journal journalist Asra Nomani unveiled one of the most comprehensive reports on the NGO network behind at least one Tesla Takedown protest.

Interesting https://t.co/V2tVlxFkTI

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) March 30, 2025

Nomani’s investigative report, which focused on 24 groups, revealed that these protests were far from organic and likely fueled by rent-a-protesters. 

The report reached Elon Musk, who responded with “interesting” on Nomani’s X post, which has now garnered nearly 7 million views.

Interesting https://t.co/V2tVlxFkTI

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) March 30, 2025

X CEO Linda Yaccarino also responded to Nomani’s post on X, appearing even more shocked by the NGO list, replying with a simple but telling “!!”

‼️

— Linda Yaccarino (@lindayaX) March 31, 2025

Nomani’s report likely ended up in the hands of DOGE and the federal government, who are investigating the origins of these protests, as well as, likely separately, domestic terrorism attacks by far-left Democrats against Tesla vehicles, showrooms, service centers, and chargers. 

DEVELOPING: Video provided to the Review-Journal shows several @Tesla vehicles engulfed in flames after Las Vegas police say they were set on fire by an individual early Tuesday morning.
UPDATES→ https://t.co/sZQr9j1E5A pic.twitter.com/uXeLsdpTVl

— Las Vegas Review-Journal (@reviewjournal) March 18, 2025

Tesla attacks by Democrats are highly miscaulated as their hate speech, domestic terrorism, and violence against Tesla will haunt them in the next election cycle. 

*   *   * 

Democrats unleashed their coordinated, NGO-driven color revolution—dubbed the ‘Tesla Takedown‘—nationwide on Saturday, though it unfolded in a notably unimpressive fashion. 

The days of million-man (or woman) marches, usually bankrolled with taxpayer dollars funneled through now-defunct USAID, appear to be over, as their ability to sway national sentiment has diminished significantly. Still, these dark and corrupt NGOs receive monies from leftist billionaires, as we’ve previously reported. 

I.e., angry old white liberals 

OMG, looks at this Tesla protest in Charlotte NC, it’s all old white Karen’s and their miserable low testosterone cucks 😂😂😂😂 pic.twitter.com/BCuEstNEwC

— Vince Langman (@LangmanVince) March 29, 2025

As the protests wound down by late Saturday, Elon Musk took to X, quoting a Joe Rogan podcast that called out Democrats for their rent-a-protester tactics. Musk asked: “Who is funding and organizing all these paid protests?” 

Who is funding and organizing all these paid protests? https://t.co/QDjD9Gao8a

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) March 30, 2025

On Friday, the far-left revolutionaries behind Tesla Takedown began mobilizing their far-left agitators aligned with the Democratic Party. Soros-linked organizations like Indivisible have been linked to yesterday’s “Global Day of Action” against Tesla …

The Tesla Takedown website links to The Action Network—an online platform used by shady far-left NGOs to organize and fundraise—which shows that groups like Troublemakers and the Disruption Project led yesterday’s efforts to “tank Tesla’s stock” and destroy shareholder value. 

“Stopping Musk will help save lives and our democracy,” Tesla Takedown wrote on its website, adding, “The stakes couldn’t be higher. No one is coming to save us—not politicians, not the media.” 

Also, on Friday, Musk threw the corrupt far-left and anti-American NGOs a curve ball that renders their entire movement meaningless…

xAI & X Merger Defuses Musk’s Tesla Share Liquidation Risk https://t.co/Ohl1l81O6H

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 29, 2025

On Sunday morning, ex-Wall Street Journal journalist Asra Nomani answered Musk’s question with a detailed list of the 24 groups that led one Tesla Takedown protest in northern Virginia. 

Here are the answers—sure to give Musk and DOGE investigators a quick path to uncovering the root of the chaos against Tesla vehicles, showrooms, service centers, and chargers in recent months. 

You asked who is funding and organizing the #TeslaTakedown protests. I’ve got answers for you, after going onto the streets of northern Virginia for the local protests here, seeing familiar faces from the Virginia Democratic political machine and then following the money — and the data.

AstroTurf Protest Industry

To your question, at the latest count, as of 3/30, 5:30 AM:

• 24 organizations and counting are funding and organizing the #TeslaTakedown protests and leading the very partisan propaganda campaign against Tesla, Tesla drivers, Tesla employees, Donald Trump and you. See below to see all 24 groups with their revenues, involvement, tax ID numbers and other info.

• These organizations have combined annual revenues of at least $124 MILLION and counting. 

• 100% of the groups are aligned with the Democratic Party. At the protest on 3/29 at Tyco Road, in Tysons, Va., a photo I took of a “Virginia Democrats” sign in front of the Tesla dealership. 

• Most of these groups enjoy tax-deductible status as 501(c)(3) and 501(c)(4) organizations, claiming they are “nonpartisan.” A few have PACs. The organizations have not returned requests for comment.

Database

You can see the raw data on 306 #TeslaTakedown protests in the database here.

Back story

I’m a former Wall Street Journal reporter and a propaganda expert and editor of the @DPearlProject , a journalism nonprofit named for my WSJ colleague and friend Daniel Pearl. Since Oct. 7th, I have been reporting on the anti-Jew, anti-America, anti-Israel protests and building a database, following the money. It numbers 2,000 groups now, and I am working on a web and mobile app for parents, policymakers, university administrators, law enforcement, the public and others.

I went to the #TeslaTakedown protest a week ago Saturday on Tyco Road at the Tysons, Va., and saw familiar faces from Indivisible and the Fairfax County Democratic Party, shouting for you to be deported as they stood outside the Tesla dealership. I wondered too who is organizing and funding the protests nationwide.

I got the protest details scraped from ActionNetwork and Mobilize, the two platforms aligned with the Democratic Party promoting the #TeslaTakedown protests, and built a public database of the groups behind the Tesla protest.

AstroTurf, not “grassroots”

In an article for the @FairfaxTimes , I wrote about how the local protests in Tysons, are a window into how the protests are AstroTurf, not “grassroots.” What this case reveals is the way that a multi-million dollar professional protest industry manufactures outrage in top-down political theater, agitprop, or agitation propaganda, and now criminal offenses. Here is the article.

Next step:

I just got data on the April 5 #HandsOff protests and will be adding that data to the database. In addition, I am completing an analysis of the propaganda using the tools of natural language processing and content analysis.

Why is this important to report on? Because defending principles of free enterprise and individual liberty in the U.S. means allowing people to buy whatever make of car they wish without fear of danger or harassment and allowing companies to do business without fear of danger or harassment.

All, please let me know if you have any questions, ideas or recommendations. Asra asra@asranomani.com To support the Pearl Project: http://asranomani.com/donate

24+ Groups Leading and Funding #TeslaTakedown (and counting) (view full list here): 

CC Doge Team…

Hello @ElonMusk and Friends,

You asked who is funding and organizing the #TeslaTakedown protests. I’ve got answers for you, after going onto the streets of northern Virginia for the local protests here, seeing familiar faces from the Virginia Democratic political machine and… pic.twitter.com/53MMDpOnOx

— Asra Nomani (@AsraNomani) March 30, 2025

Your dive into these NGOs became much easier because of Nomani’s reporting. 

*  *  *

Anza Knives are made in the USA! They’re selling like hotcakes.

Satisfaction guaranteed or your money back, lifetime guarantee. And if you’re looking for a great daily carry, check this one out.

Authored by Steve Watson via modernity.news,

Presidential loser Hillary Clinton, who was found to have used a personal email address for government communications, is definitely the last person who should be commenting on the leaked Signal group chat between Trump officials, but she just couldn’t keep her trap shut.

As we highlighted, the story was a nothing burger that Democrats desperately tried to jump on unsurprisingly given that they have absolutely nothing else going for them.

But the most hilarious development to come out of this is Hillary mounting her high horse and declaring how sacred national security materials are.

Clinton had the audacity to splurge her mind matter all over The New York Times opinion page, shamelessly proclaiming “It’s not the hypocrisy that bothers me; it’s the stupidity.”

It’s not the hypocrisy that bothers me; it’s the stupidity. https://t.co/mfGQvtkHxj

— Hillary Clinton (@HillaryClinton) March 28, 2025

X comments are closed…obviously.

Hillary sardonically blathers “We’re all shocked — shocked! — that President Trump and his team don’t actually care about protecting classified information or federal record retention laws.”

She adds, “But we knew that already. What’s much worse is that top Trump administration officials put our troops in jeopardy by sharing military plans on a commercial messaging app and unwittingly invited a journalist into the chat. That’s dangerous. And it’s just dumb.”

First of all, there were no “military plans,” as Pete Hegseth has pointed out. Democrats are pathetically clutching at straws.

Secondly, this is coming from the woman who used her own email server to share classified communications.

This is the bleach bit lady, who when asked by reporters if she had indeed wiped all her emails to get rid of the evidence, sarcastically responded “Like with a cloth?”

Remember when Hillary Clinton was caught with over 31,000 government emails on an illegal private server?

And when she was asked if she deleted the evidence, she joked “what like with a cloth or something?”

No FBI raid on her house & no DOJ indictment

pic.twitter.com/ESQYfrK250

— DC_Draino (@DC_Draino) June 9, 2023

Hillary Clinton weighing in on “Signalgate?”

Fmr. CIA Analyst @TPASarah thinks that’s pretty rich.

The difference is… pic.twitter.com/AGPuXL9tto

— Chanel Rion OAN (@ChanelRion) March 30, 2025

And she’s talking about “hypocrisy.”

Hillary Clinton just published an op-ed in the NYT slamming Trump

Her opening salvo is about the Signal debacle

This is coming from the woman that insisted on using her own private email server which was hacked

Immediate hypocrisy, as always pic.twitter.com/BhNkQd82rF

— Shaun Maguire (@shaunmmaguire) March 29, 2025

Yeah, maybe you should sit this one out Hilary. Sit right at the end of a long long table and shut all the way the hell up.

Crooked Hillary had 22 top secret emails on her Gmail account alone. https://t.co/U7Pm8TjhA5

— House Foreign Affairs Committee Majority (@HouseForeignGOP) March 29, 2025

Crooked Hillary had 22 top secret emails on her Gmail account alone. https://t.co/U7Pm8TjhA5

— House Foreign Affairs Committee Majority (@HouseForeignGOP) March 29, 2025

Crooked Hillary had 22 top secret emails on her Gmail account alone. https://t.co/U7Pm8TjhA5

— House Foreign Affairs Committee Majority (@HouseForeignGOP) March 29, 2025

Crooked Hillary had 22 top secret emails on her Gmail account alone. https://t.co/U7Pm8TjhA5

— House Foreign Affairs Committee Majority (@HouseForeignGOP) March 29, 2025

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Ahead of Tuesday’s pivotal election in Wisconsin—which will determine whether conservatives or liberals control the state’s Supreme Court—Elon Musk’s America PAC hosted a town hall to rally support for conservative candidate Brad Schimel. The event covered several topics, including an update on DOGE-related efforts in the corrupt DC Swamp.

Forty-two minutes into the online town hall—streamed on X and other social media platforms—Musk welcomed Antonio Gracias, founder and CEO of the Chicago-based growth equity firm Valor Equity Partners. Gracias has been leading DOGE efforts to uncover fraud and waste in Social Security. 

Musk told the audience with Gracias on stage that DOGE found “20 million dead people marked as alive… Social Security database, this is too crazy, and then you’ll notice there’s a strange trend here.”

At that moment, Musk and Gracias turned their backs to the audience to explain a graph projected on the wall titled “New Non-Citizen Social Security Numbers Issued. “

Gracias told the audience, “We started at the top of the system—mapping the whole system of Social Security to understand where all the fraud was—and there were a lot of great people there who showed us, um, really a lot of waste, and so that came with a big list of stuff. But this is what jumped out at us. When we saw these numbers … we were like, what is this? In 2021, you see 270,000 people go all the way to 2.1 million in 2024. These are non-citizens that are getting Social Security numbers.” 

Musk said this chart “was mind-blowing …” 

Gracias followed that up with: “This literally blew us away. Like we went there to find fraud, and we found this by accident – and this isn’t political, by the way – my parents are immigrants – uh yeah, this country has been great to us. My brothers and sister were all born in Spain. I’m pro legal immigration. This is not political. This is about America and the future of America, and there are a lot of good people in the system who pointed us in this direction. I want to honor them right now who work in the government today, who took risks to show us these numbers and tell us what’s going on. I want to stop for a minute. I want to honor those people today – very good people. I have been from DC to Social Security offices and to the border to track this down, and very good people have helped us along the way. I want to thank them.”

He explained, “This number – what is when you come in the country if you’re an illegal, uh there’s a couple ways come in – you can go through a Port of Entry and you can tell them you’re afraid and you’ll get an asylum case and you’ll get an interview then you get in – that’s one way to do it. Another way to do it is to go to the border – literally, this happened. I talked to the border patrol myself.  Elon was there too. I went to Laredo, and you walked up to a border portal officer and told them you wanted to come. They have a couple of choices. They could charge you with a misdemeanor or a felony under 1325 or they can make an administrative offense like a parking ticket basically, they were told to do that make an administrative offense under the last Administration and then you go walk across the border they uh do what’s called a release from your own recognizance and they give you an NTA (notice to appear) which to appear at a judge the weight times on judges are like average six years -look at Grok-you’ll see it on immigration judges – there’s only 700 of them this is 5.5 million people.” 

“Next, once you’re in the country and you got asylum through one of these pathways we mapped the whole thing out – you can apply for a work document – you file a 765 – it’s the work form – you get this form called the 766 – that’s the authorization – and then Social Security Administration automatically sends you in the mail your social security number – no interview no ID,” Gracias explained further. 

Musk chimed in: “Just reiterating, sometimes people think that Biden was asleep at the switch. But this was a massive large-scale program to import as many illegals as possible ultimately to change the entire voting map of the United States and disenfranchise the American people and make it a permanent deep blue one-party state, from which there would be no escape.” 

Gracias emphasized that “defaults in the system from Social Security to all of the benefit programs have been set to Max inclusion – max pay – for these people and Minimum Collection – that’s what’s happening. We found that 1.3 million of them are already on Medicaid. And the 5 million of them on benefit programs.” 

“What was really disturbing us was why. We’re asking ourselves why, and so we actually just took a sample and looked at voter registration records and we found people here registered to vote in this population – yes – and we found some by sampling some that did vote. And we have referred them to prosecution at the homeland security investigation,” Gracias said, adding, “Truly disturbing thing to me and the darkest thing about this to me uh the voter fraud is terrible but the human tragedy this created is extraordinary. Americans need to know – that’s why I’m here – that human traffickers made 13 to 15 billion dollar off of this – that’s the money that’s going around the world moving people around the world to our borders because of these incentives.” 

Elon Musk exposes massive social security fraud with non citizens receiving a social security number

Why would anyone be against eliminating fraud like this in government? pic.twitter.com/dSwUTbcbQg

— Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) March 31, 2025

Last month, Musk summed up why the Democratic Party and corrupt NGOs, along with far-left globalist billionaires, facilitated the illegal alien invasion:

“The REAL reason so many Democrats are upset about entitlements (social security, medical, etc) fraud investigations is that they are using your taxpayer money as handouts to attract and retain ILLEGAL immigrants. Their future voters.” 

The REAL reason so many Democrats are upset about entitlements (social security, medical, etc) fraud investigations is that they are using your taxpayer money as handouts to attract and retain ILLEGAL immigrants. Their future voters.

That’s what it’s all about.

Truth.

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) February 17, 2025

At the same time, the Democratic Party and their globalist billionaire allies prioritized their desire for more power over the nation, which triggered alarming national security and biosecurity threats.

In response to the Democratic Party’s illegal alien invasion scheme, shadowy Marxist NGOs aligned with the woke party have launched firebombing attacks against Elon Musk’s Tesla showrooms, charging stations, and vehicles across the country—all in retaliation for DOGE exposing this massive fraud.

Time for …

Issuing social security numbers to illegal immigrants? This is one way they plan to circumvent E-verify.

By the way, E-verify is like Real-ID and the Patriot Act: another government checkpoint that will be used to further control law abiding citizens. https://t.co/ExlAbvbxgL

— Thomas Massie (@RepThomasMassie) March 31, 2025

. . .

Vaccine stocks tumbled in the early U.S. cash session after Peter Marks—a top FDA regulator and pro-vaxxer—abruptly resigned on Friday.

Wall Street analysts view Marks’ departure as a bearish signal for vaccine stocks, such as Moderna, Novavax, BioNTech, and others, which already face mounting headwinds, including a wave of layoffs expected at the Department of Health and Human Services.

Moderna puked at the open, down 12% in early trading, while the SPDR S&P Biotech ETF sank 2%. Other makers of vaccine stocks plunged, including Novavax -10% and BioNTech -5.8%.

Moderna shares are also down 95% from peak Covid highs.

Bloomberg provided color on Marks’ role and how his departure is bearish for the industry: 

As the leader of the FDA’s Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research, Marks was a key figure in the quick approvals of Covid vaccines during the pandemic. Along with shots, he was responsible for the agency’s evaluation of cutting-edge treatments such as cell and gene therapies.

In his resignation letter, Marks cited friction with the views of Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a longtime vaccine critic.

“I was willing to work to address the Secretary’s concerns regarding vaccine safety and transparency,” he said. “However it has become clear that truth and transparency are not desired by the Secretary, but rather he wishes subservient confirmation of his misinformation and lies.”

Analysts—including BMO Capital Markets’ Evan David Seigerman—view the departure as a “significant negative” for the biotech and biopharma sectors.

“It’s no secret that Biotech has been under immense pressure recently given broader macro issues, this unfortunate update does nothing to reassure investors or provide relief,” Seigerman told clients, adding that gene and cell therapy companies are under pressure given Marks’ relationship with many of them. 

Here’s further analyst insight into the change of guard at the FDA in the era of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. running the Department of Health and Human Services (courtesy of Bloomberg):

William Blair, Matt Larew

• Expects in the space could weaken further given that Marks “was a cheerleader for innovation in biotech and strong supporter of new modalities”

• Says Marks’s departure and the recently announced HHS cuts stack on top of “an unsettlingly large pile of news flow in the space year-to-date that creates uncertainty for funding, regulatory and approval processes, and supply chains”

• Adds that the steady stream of negative news flow “has simply been too much for stocks in the space to overcome

RBC Capital Markets, Brian Abrahams

• Says the news is not good for the biotech industry even beyond vaccines, as Marks had been a key advocate for more flexible, efficient approval processes for drugs particularly those for orphan diseases such as gene therapies

• “We expect some weakness for biotech as uncertainty continues to be perpetuated”

Truist, Joon Lee

• Says news of the resignation could put some pressure on companies whose drugs are currently, or planned to be, under review by the FDA’s Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research

Last week, Bloomberg reported that leaked documents reveal the Trump administration plans to slash $28 billion in global health initiatives—including funding cuts to Bill Gates’ vaccine alliance, Gavi.

WINNING. President Trump has cancelled $1 BILLION to Bill Gates ‘GAVI Vaccine Alliance’…

“Bill Gates controls the WHO which mandates ‘vaccines’ for the entire World…” -HHS RFK Jr.pic.twitter.com/9Y4BCx1qhM

— Liz Churchill (@liz_churchill10) March 30, 2025

Meanwhile…

• USAID Panic Mode: Bill Gates Goes On MSM, Bashes Musk’s DOGE, Fear-Mongers About Next Pandemic

• Climate Group Controlled By Bill Gates Hit By Layoffs

. . . 

Welcome to the last day of March ahead of the hotly anticipated “Liberation Day” on Wednesday. US and European markets are sharply lower and Asian equity markets are also sinking as the fear of what it may contain continues to build (the Nikkei tumbled into a correction overnight). As Goldman trader John Flood writes, “brace yourself for a crazy week ahead. S&P 500’s implied move through Friday” (4/4) is 260bps (he will take the over).  

On the economic data front we get China’s NBS PMIs on Monday morning, US Manufacturing ISM (Tuesday morning; the Street is modeling 49.8, down from 50.3 in Feb), Services ISM (Thursday morning; the Street is modeling 53.1, down from 53.5 in Feb), and Jobs (Friday morning; the Street is modeling 135K, down from 151K in Feb, and according to Michael Hartnett this number is more important than Trump’s tariff announcement). Also need to keep an eye on the first major political contests since Trump’s reelection taking place on Tuesday 4/1 (the judicial election in Wisconsin and the special House races in Florida).

According to Flood, the Grand Daddy of this week’s events is the tariffs announcement on April 2: he notes that Goldman economists believe that “risks lean towards a negative surprise on announcement day for 2 main reasons: First, administration officials have said that the soon-to-be announced tariff rates are intended as the basis for negotiation, which incentivizes the proposal of higher rates at the outset. Second, their recent survey showed that market participants anticipate the reciprocal tariff rate to be 9% on average, while GS economists believe the initial proposal could be closer to double that expectation.”

Moving back to this week, outside of “liberation day” and 25% tariffs on imported autos commencing on Thursday, it’s also a big week for macro with all roads leading to Friday’s payrolls and a speech by Powell. Before that, the main highlights are: today’s German CPI; tomorrow’s US manufacturing ISM, US auto sales, US JOLTS, China’s manufacturing PMI, Japan’s Tankan, Eurozone CPI, the RBA rate decision, and a speech from Lagarde; Wednesday’s ADP report; Thursday’s US ISM services, China’s services PMI, Eurozone PPI, and the ECB account of the March meeting; all before the big end to the week on Friday.

In terms of what to expect from “Liberation Day” on Wednesday, the bid-offer is huge. As DB’s economists laid out last week reciprocal tariffs could add roughly 4 (best case) to 14ppts (worst case) to the overall US tariff rate relative to its 2024 level of 2.5%. The hit to 2025 real US GDP growth could be as little as -25bps to as high as -120bps. For core PCE inflation, reciprocal tariffs could add anywhere from a couple of basis points to potentially 1.2ppts. Importantly, these impacts are additional to the risks to growth and inflation from previously announced tariff actions.

DB’s economists calculate that the trade actions taken to date (if they remain in place through year end) imply an overall US tariff rate of roughly 10.5%, which is the highest since WWII. The Trump Administration’s auto tariffs could push the US tariff rate as high as another couple of percentage points higher depending on the implementation details. So the starting point before “liberation day” is 10.5-12.5%. As such by the end of this week we could be looking at a aggregate US tariff rate of (very roughly) between 15 and 25%.

Over the weekend, Trump told NBC that he “couldn’t care less” if automakers had to raise prices in the US as it would force Americans to buy US made cars. The 25% tariffs are due to come into force on Thursday. So its becoming ever clearer that this administration is serious about bringing massive change to economic policy. If and where their pain threshold is in terms of markets and the economy is the next most important question. The rhetoric from the administration at the moment seems to suggest its high but there is an extraordinary amount of uncertainty at the moment.

The pain isn’t showing up in the hard data at the moment and in terms of US payrolls on Friday there’s only likely to be a small impact, DB forecasts +150k for both headline and private against +151k and +140k respectively last time. Incorporated in that is a roughly 20k drag from federal layoffs which have been complicated by court actions against them. DB expect the unemployment rate to just round up to 4.2% from 4.1% last time. Before that it will be interesting to see if the US manufacturing ISM (Tuesday) and services (Thursday) show any sentiment hit.

As an aside, several weeks ago, DB’s Jim Reid referred to a “rather insightful” podcast featuring US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on the “All-In” podcast (link here). He outlined his ideologies and, in my view, committed the administration to potentially transformative policies. Shortly thereafter, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick appeared on the same podcast (link here) and presented perhaps an even more radical perspective on the potential policy direction.

As Reid notes today, “these are valuable podcasts to listen to and have helped convince me that this administration is serious about radical change.” We will have more to say about this shortly.

Back to this week’s events, tomorrow sees two special congressional elections in Florida to fill the seats of Matt Gaetz and Michael Waltz in the US House of Representatives. These are Republican strongholds but some polling has suggested it could be close. The Republicans will still control the House regardless but only have the narrowest of majorities so these are important elections in terms of breathing space for their agenda.

In geopolitics, the focus will be on a meeting of NATO foreign ministers on April 3-4. Its the first time they’ve met since Trump’s inauguration. So they’ll have plenty to discuss

Staying on this theme, over the weekend, Trump suggested he was angry at Putin over his recent comments that Zelenskiy should be replaced as a price for peace negotiations. Mr Trump used slightly stronger language according to NBC. Trump said that if Russia was to blame for there being no peace deal he’s prepared to put secondary sanctions on Russian oil.

Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events

Monday March 31

• Data: US March MNI Chicago PMI, Dallas Fed manufacturing activity, China March official PMIs, UK March Lloyds Business Barometer, February net consumer credit, M4, Japan February industrial production, retail sales, housing starts, Germany March CPI, February retail sales, import price index, Italy March CPI
• Central banks: ECB’s Panetta and Villeroy speak

Tuesday April 1

• Data: US March ISM index, Dallas Fed services activity, total vehicle sales, February JOLTS report, construction spending, China March Caixin manufacturing PMI, Japan Q1 Tankan survey, February jobless rate, job-to-applicant ratio, Italy March manufacturing PMI, new car registrations, budget balance, February unemployment rate, Eurozone March CPI, February unemployment rate, Canada March manufacturing PMI
• Central banks: Fed’s Barkin speaks, ECB’s Lagarde and Lane speak, BoE’s Greene speaks, RBA decision
• Other: US House special elections in Florida

Wednesday April 2

• Data: US March ADP report, February factory orders, Japan March monetary base, France February budget balance
• Central banks: Fed’s Kugler speaks, ECB’s Schnabel and Escriva speak

Thursday April 3

• Data: US March ISM services, February trade balance, initial jobless claims, UK March official reserves changes, China March Caixin services PMI, Italy March services PMI, Eurozone February PPI, Canada February international merchandise trade, Switzerland March CPI
• Central banks: Fed’s Jefferson and Cook speak, ECB’s account of the March meeting, BoE’s March DMP survey
• Other: Nato foreign ministers meeting, through April 4

Friday April 4

• Data: US March jobs report, UK March new car registrations, construction PMI, Japan February household spending, Germany March construction PMI, February factory orders, France February industrial production, Italy February retail sales, Canada March jobs report, Sweden March CPI
• Central banks: Fed’s Powell and Barr speak

* * *

Finally, looking at just US macro, the key economic data releases this week are the ISM report on Tuesday and the employment situation report on Friday. President Trump is expected to announce new tariff policies on Wednesday. There are several speaking engagements from Fed officials this week, including speeches by Vice Chair Jefferson on Thursday and by Chair Powell on Friday.

 
Monday, March 31

• 09:45 AM Chicago PMI, March (consensus 45.0, last 45.5)
• 10:30 AM Dallas Fed manufacturing index, March (consensus -5.0, last -8.3)

Tuesday, April 1

• 09:00 AM Richmond Fed President Barkin (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin will discuss monetary policy and the economic outlook at an event hosted by the Council on Foreign Relations. On March 28th, President Barking noted that the rapid policy changes implemented and proposed by the Trump administration have created “a sense of instability” in the business community that could “quiet demand.” Barkin characterized the current stance of monetary policy as “moderately restrictive,” which he said was a “good place to be.” He also said that he was “open to the notion” that tariffs would provide a one-time boost to the price level rather than a persistent boost to the inflation rate but noted that he did not “start with [that] assumption,” in part because inflation expectations “have been loosened—not de-anchored, loosened—for both price setters and price receivers” after the recent inflationary episode.
• 09:45 AM S&P Global US manufacturing PMI, March final (consensus 49.8, last 49.8)
• 10:00 AM Construction spending, February (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.3%, last -0.2%)
• 10:00 AM JOLTS job openings, February (GS 7,500k, consensus 7,680k, last 7,740k): We estimate that JOLTS job openings declined to 7.5mn in February based on the signal from online job postings.
• 10:00 AM ISM manufacturing index, March (GS 49.5, consensus 49.5, last 50.3): We estimate the ISM manufacturing index declined by 0.8pt to 49.5 in March, reflecting softer manufacturing surveys so far for March (GS manufacturing survey tracker: -0.6pt to 51.7) but a tailwind from residual seasonality.
• 05:00 PM Lightweight motor vehicle sales, March (GS 16.4mn, consensus 16.0mn, last 16.0mn)

Wednesday, April 2

• 08:15 AM ADP employment change, March (GS +110k, consensus +120k, last +77k)
• 10:00 AM Factory orders, February (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.5%, last +1.7%); Factory orders ex-transportation, February (consensus +0.4%, last +0.2%); Durable goods orders, February final (consensus +0.9%, last +0.9%); Durable goods orders ex-transportation, February final (consensus +0.7%, last +0.7%); Core capital goods orders, February final (last -0.3%); Core capital goods shipments, February final (last +0.9%)
• 04:30 PM Fed Governor Kugler speaks: Fed Governor Adriana Kugler will deliver a speech on inflation expectations and monetary policy at the Griswold Center for Economic Policy’s 2025 Public Talk. Text and Q&A are expected. On March 25th, Governor Kugler said that the FOMC was “well positioned” and could “react to new developments by holding at the current rate for some time as we closely monitor incoming data and the cumulative effects of new policies.” Kugler highlighted that goods inflation had “turned positive in recent months,” which she said was “unhelpful because goods inflation has often kept a lid on total inflation and also affects inflation expectations.”

Thursday, April 3

• 08:30 AM Trade balance, February (GS -$126.0bn, consensus -$123.4bn, last -$131.4bn)
• 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended March 29 (GS 230k, consensus 225k, last 224k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended March 22 (consensus 1,867k, last 1,856k)
• 09:45 AM S&P Global US services PMI, March final (consensus 54.1, last 54.3)
• 10:00 AM ISM services index, March (GS 52.5, consensus 53.0, last 53.5): We estimate that the ISM services index declined to 52.5 in March, reflecting sequential softening in our non-manufacturing survey tracker (-0.5pt to 52.6 in March) and a headwind from residual seasonality.
• 12:30 PM Fed Vice Chair Jefferson speaks: Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson will deliver a speech on the economic outlook and central bank communication at a conference hosted by the Atlanta Fed. Text and Q&A are expected. On February 19th, Vice Chair Jefferson said that “monetary policy remains restrictive,” but that “with a strong economy and a solid labor market, we can take our time to assess the incoming data to make any further adjustments to our policy rate.”
• 02:30 PM Fed Governor Cook speaks: Fed Governor Lisa Cook will deliver a speech on the economic outlook at the University of Pittsburgh. Text and Q&A are expected.

Friday, April 4

• 08:30 AM Nonfarm payroll employment, March (GS +150k, consensus +138k, last +151k); Private payroll employment, March (GS +160k, consensus +130k, last +140k); Average hourly earnings (MoM), March (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.3%); Unemployment rate, March (GS 4.1%, consensus 4.1%, last 4.1%): We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose 150k in March. On the positive side, big data indicators pointed to a solid pace of job creation. The return of striking workers will be a 15k net boost, according to the strike report, and we expect a rebound in hiring among weather-sensitive industries following the particularly cold weather in January and February. On the negative side, we expect a moderate hit—we assume 25k—from the combined reduction in force actions of the federal government and a more moderate, but still positive, pace of state and local hiring (+15k). We estimate that the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1% on a rounded basis and that the participation rate was unchanged at 62.4%. We estimate average hourly earnings rose 0.3% (month-over-month, seasonally adjusted), reflecting positive calendar effects.
• 11:25 AM Fed Chair Powell speaks: Fed Chair Jerome Powell will deliver a speech on the economic outlook at the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing’s Annual Conference. Text and Q&A are expected. We saw Chair Powell’s comments at the press conference after the March FOMC meeting as somewhat dovish. Powell downplayed the sharp increase in Michigan inflation expectations, noted that other measures have been more stable, and said that the baseline is that tariffs will only delay further progress on inflation until 2026. He also reiterated that the FOMC was well positioned to wait for further clarity and not in a hurry to cut again.
• 12:00 PM Fed Governor Barr speaks: Fed Governor Michael Barr will deliver a speech on artificial intelligence and banking. Text and Q&A are expected.
• 12:45 PM Fed Governor Waller speaks: Fed Governor Christopher Waller will take part in an event on payment systems at a conference hosted by the New York Fed. Q&A is expected. Governor Waller dissented from the FOMC’s decision to slow the pace of balance sheet runoff at its March meeting. In a statement explaining his dissent, Waller said he thought that reserves were not yet “closer to an ample level of reserves” that he saw as an appropriate place to slow or stop balance sheet runoff. Waller also said that the FOMC had a “variety of tools” to address “unanticipated disturbances to reserve demand” should they emerge. On March 6th, Waller argued that the FOMC’s ability to lower the fed funds rate this year would “depend on our ability to tease out the effects of tariffs” on inflation. He also noted that “the uncertainty around tariffs has caused a lot of caution from the private sector and households.”

Source: DB, Goldman

Via The Cradle

Syria’s self-declared interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa announced the formation of the country’s new transitional government late on Saturday. “The formation of a new government today is a declaration of our joint will to build a new state,” Sharaa said during a speech marking the formation. 

Several of his top officials have retained their posts, including Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani and Defense Minister Murhaf Abu Qasra. Anas Hassan Khattab, who served as intelligence director after the fall of the former government of Bashar al-Assad, was appointed as Minister of Interior. 

All three were members of Sharaa’s extremist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) organization, the former branch of Al-Qaeda in Syria (when it was known as the Nusra Front), which has been officially dissolved, but retains the bulk of its fighting formation as part of the country’s new army and security apparatus. 

The formation comes as Sharaa has been under increasing western pressure lately to establish an inclusive administration, weeks after his government forces killed over 1,500 Alawite civilians in a series of bloody sectarian massacres in early March. 

Hind Qabawat, a Christian and a former member of the Riyadh-based Syrian Negotiation Commission, was appointed Minister of Social Affairs and Labor. She is the only woman in the newly appointed transitional government. 

An Alawite, Yarub Badr, was named as Transport Minister. Member of the Druze community, Amgad Badr, was appointed as Minister of Agriculture.

Mohammad Bashir, who was prime minister in the caretaker government following the fall of Assad’s government on December 8, 2024, has been made Energy Minister. There is currently no prime minister, as the temporary constitution signed by Sharaa recently states that a secretary-general will lead the government. 

Raed Saleh, leader of the White Helmets group, which now operates as the official Syrian Civil Defense, was appointed Minister of Emergency Situations and Disasters. The White Helmets worked closely with Al-Qaeda throughout the Syrian war and participated in its executions. 

Saleh previously praised US airstrikes on Syria during US President Donald Trump’s first term. Mazhar al-Wais, another former HTS and Nusra Front member, was appointed Justice Minister, replacing the controversial Shadi Mohammad al-Waisi, who was seen in videos from 2015 directing the execution of women.

Syrian Kurd Mohammad Terko was made Minister of Education. No representatives of the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) or the affiliated Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES) were appointed to the government.

Sharaa signed a temporary constitution on 13 March after receiving it from a committee of legal experts that drafted it. The president had previously claimed that drafting a constitution and holding elections in Syria would take several years.

Correction: Al Qaeda started the “White Helmets are Alqaeda” frenzy.

Here’s Abu Jaber, a top Al-Qaeda leader in Syria (now known as “HTS”), praising the White Helmets as “hidden soldiers.” https://t.co/jIE2wF6HqQ pic.twitter.com/RupNQ3qnIV

— Aaron Maté (@aaronjmate) December 5, 2024

Days before the temporary constitution was signed, government forces massacred well over 1,500 Alawite civilians during a violent security operation to quell an armed uprising on the Syrian coast carried out by elements of Syria’s former military.