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The Trump Administration’s Biggest Wins And Biggest Fails So Far

The Trump Administration’s Biggest Wins And Biggest Fails So Far

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us,

Back in 2016 I predicted a resounding win for Donald Trump in his election campaign against Hillary Clinton despite a chorus of voices telling me I was crazy. The argument from skeptics was that the establishment would never allow Trump into office. My position on the event was relatively straightforward – The conservative populist movement was far too strong to deny and the globalists might not see a Trump White House as a total loss if they could control it from behind the scenes, or sabotage it with a national crisis.

By 2020, Trump was in the midst of the astroturf BLM riots and a fabricated pandemic crisis over a virus with a 99.8% survival rate. By November, the election was effectively rigged in favor of Joe Biden. It’s not just the shady mail in ballot voters (millions of them magically disappeared by the 2024 election), it was also the establishment media’s censorship of vital news stories that could have turned public opinion against Democrats along with social media censorship of conservative dissent. All of these factors together gave Biden a win.

However, there was also a number of bad decisions that might have helped to remove Trump’s edge in the elections and blunt conservative enthusiasm. I was highly critical of Trump’s first term, as many commentators were, mainly because of the DC “swamp creatures” flooding into his cabinet.

To be fair to Trump, he walked right into a den of vipers and parasites. He was surrounded by people who were intent on controlling his policies and sabotaging his second term prospects. There are thousands of cabinet positions to be considered and Trump trusted the wrong people to fill them.

His second term and his dramatic reboot of the federal government has been nothing short of epic. I have far less to criticize this time around. Though, there are still some serious problems to address.

First, I want to go over Trump’s first quarter in office and examine his greatest wins to this point. Some people might not see certain items in this list as “wins” – I really don’t care. Like they say, one man’s terrorist is another man’s freedom fighter.

Win #1: Complete Shutdown Of Illegal Immigration

This is an undeniable win. I can’t tell you how many times I heard naysayers argue that Trump would “never get the border under control and never commit to deportations”. These people were wrong (again).

Only a month after Trump’s arrival nearly all illegal border crossings stopped. The Border Patrol, which was dealing with 50,000 to over 300,000 southern border encounters per month under the Biden Admin, is now living the easy life with a minimal 8000 encounters per month. This is the lowest border traffic in the recorded history of the agency.

Median encounters have dropped 95% since Trump took office. This is unheard of. It’s a success that no critic can take away, which is why the media barely mentions it.

The collapse in border crossings proves that the vast majority of people trying to sneak into the US were NOT coming here because they were escaping tyranny or crime. If they were, then those people would still be lining up at border checkpoints begging to get in. In reality, border cities on the Mexico side, once flush with migrants ready to slip into the US, are now ghost towns. There was no humanitarian crisis; it was a fraud perpetrated by Democrats, NGOs and the UN.  Migrants were rushing into the US to get cash and welfare handouts, that is all.

Win #2: DOGE Closes USAID And Other Saboteur Agencies

Elon Musk’s DOGE has had mixed results, but getting rid of decades of corruption and waste is not going to happen in mere months. That said, the DOGE closure of agencies like USAID is an excellent start.

USAID’s slimy tentacles were tied closely to leftist NGOs and their agenda seems to have been the spread of the woke virus into every aspect of social cohesion. They were manipulating culture not just in the US but around the world. All they had to do was offer juicy subsidies to leftist activists and shut out conservative based programs.

I have noticed a distinct change in the woke movement – A kind of death rattle. Suddenly, a lot of these activist groups have gone quiet. Their protests are smaller. Their momentum is frozen. Many corporations have abandoned woke messaging. There has even been an observable decline in online troll activity. Our favorite anonymous lefty stalkers have vanished from the face of the Earth (I almost miss them).

Win #3: Tariff Campaign

It might be too early to make a call on this, but there has been positive movement on the trade front because of Trump’s tariffs. The UK has capitulated and accepted 10% tariffs while cutting their taxes on US goods to around 1%. American products will flow freely across the Atlantic.

China has admitted it’s entering into negotiations, probably because the communist country is currently on the verge of deflationary collapse.  Multiple governments are working with the White House to come to an arrangement. Several international companies are moving manufacturing to US soil.

If Trump can actually shift enough manufacturing to the US, then this will mean greater production capacity, which means higher supply and lower prices. It means a higher number of middle income jobs and better wages. Finally, Trump’s efforts to eliminate the income tax and replace it with tariff revenues would be the ultimate success, as it would free the public from IRS and central bank slavery.

Win #4: Removal Of LGBT/DEI Propaganda From Schools And Federal Institutions

Trump’s threats to cut off federal funds to woke schools is having a far reaching effect. Woke teachers are taking to social media to cry and whine and post videos tearing down trans flags and BLM posters from classroom walls. How this groomer ideology was ever allowed to infect the educational system and target our children is a conundrum that will be studied for generations.

Mentally ill trans activists are being booted from the military under the direction of Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth. These are people that only entered service to get taxpayer funded gender reassignment hormones and surgeries. They made a mockery of the armed forces and made America look exceedingly weak. Good riddance.

Now we need to get to the fails, and though there will be some debate on these issues I think most conservatives agree that these are areas where Trump needs to improve. I’ll also point out that Trump is highly changeable and these situations can flip overnight.

Win #5:  Freedom For January 6th Prisoners

Everyone said this wasn’t going to happen, but it did.  The Democrat narratives surrounding January 6th were egregiously dishonest and politically motivated.  Capitol police are caught on video launching tear gas and rubber bullets into the crowd of peaceful protesters; the feds knowingly triggered the riots that followed.  The media then rewrote history and labeled the riot as an “insurrection” designed to interfere with Joe Biden taking office.

While some people did damage property and others took souvenirs, the prison sentences they received were absurd in light of their minor crimes.  They were being made into examples and justice was not blind or fair.  Trump was absolutely correct in pardoning and releasing them all.

Fail #1: Exposure Of Biden Admin’s Economic Manipulation

Trump has not done a very good job warning the public about the Biden Admin’s manipulation of economic data. The Democrats spent two years denying that stagflation was a threat, then spent two years claiming inflation was declining (it wasn’t). They claimed jobs and GDP were rising (jobs for American citizens were stagnant and GDP was manipulated upward by increased government spending). They said the financial system is as “strong as it has ever been”.

Because most Americans are not aware of these rigged numbers, they will inevitably blame Trump as the true data comes out and the stats go into decline. Trump needs an economic representative or “czar” that gives the public detailed analysis on how the Democrats used disinformation to hide recession signals. There needs to be regular updates on what is being done to repair the situation. The populace needs to see more proactive movement on the economy or there will be a crisis and everything will be blamed on Trump and conservatives.

Fail #2: The Epstein Files Release

What a PR disaster. Attorney General Pam Bondi has been leading the public around in circles for months, claiming that the Epstein client list would soon be made available. She has released fragments of info but nothing new of consequence. She now says that her office is sifting through thousands of hours of video evidence, much of it involving the sexual assault of minors.

Look, the public doesn’t want to see that stuff. All we want is a concise list of who engaged with Epstein and his “services”. These people need to be called out and brought to justice NOW. If they are in government they need to be removed ASAP. There is no room for pedos in American leadership anymore.

I can understand certain obstacles, such as keeping victims protected. An outright dump of info would be reckless, not to mention illegal. That said, the feds have had years to go over this evidence. I suspect that the White House is stalling because the client list could destroy a large portion of the government. The number of leaders exposed must be extensive enough that a release of the list would cripple the system. It’s the only explanation that makes sense for why they continue to keep the American people waiting.

Fail #3: Foreign Aid To Israel

I’ve made my position on the war in Gaza consistently clear – I don’t care about either side, I care about America. Let them vaporize each other, as long as we aren’t subsidizing the vaporizing. It’s ancient tribal insanity. If we’re going to go back thousands of years to determine who should control the Levant region, well, that right goes to Christians in my view. It was controlled by Christians for centuries until the Islamic hordes overran it in 634 AD.

Trump shut down foreign aid to hundreds of countries, but he still kept tens-of-billions in annual aid to Israel in place. I get that his father was fond of Israel and that the evangelical base wants to keep Israel out of Muslim hands. I get that many conservatives see Israel as the only foothold western civilization has in the Middle East. I understand the defensiveness when it comes to Israel as a symbol.

However, there also needs to be consistency of principles and Israel does not need our money. If we’re going to cut foreign subsidies and pursue America-first policies, then we need to cut off some of the largest panhandlers. We can maintain relations with Israel without allowing them to drain our pockets.

Let the war play out without us paying for it. It’s not our concern.

Fail #4: Continued Military Aid To Ukraine

As with Israel, the conflict in Ukraine does not concern the American people. It may be that Trump wants to keep the EU from inserting itself into the quagmire and sparking off WWIII. Perhaps if the US backs out completely then this would leave a vacuum that the European elites are more than happy to fill. Of course, the EU has no capacity whatsoever to fight the Russians, they only have the ability to set off a regional nuclear event by sticking their noses into other people’s business.

At bottom, a freeze on US military aid is more likely to force Ukraine to settle on a practical peace agreement. The Russians have consistently stated they want a return to diplomacy, but they have also said they won’t be giving up the lands in the Donbas or Crimea. In his delusion, Zelensky has demanded that these lands be returned before any talks are organized. To the credit of Trump and JD Vance, they called the little man out on his fantasy publicly.

I’m doubtful that Ukraine or Europe will allow a true peace accord. I suspect they will drag the situation on for months while pretending they want to negotiate. Trump needs to end military aid once and for all and if Ukraine wants to trade minerals they can do so in exchange for humanitarian aid and infrastructure rebuilding. America has no business being involved in such a war.

Fail #5: Real ID And Biometric Tracking Of US Citizens

The Real ID program is another ugly remnant of the Bush and Obama era. It is essentially a requirement for mandatory biometric tracking of anyone traveling by air. The reason you can use a US Passport as a substitute for the ID is because passports already have biometrics in place on traveler photos.

There is truly no practical need for Real ID, it only serves to intrude on the privacy of US citizens. It’s not going to prevent terror attacks. It’s not going to speed up airport processing. TSA will still be a thing. With mass biometrics they might as well put a lo-jack on every traveler (with cell phones they’ve basically already done that, too).

The Real ID was in development long before Trump’s rise to the White House. DHS claims they will not have access to the files (I don’t buy that for a second) and that this is a “state based program”. They went through the states because that makes it more difficult for any single administration to shut the program down. Trump still has power over the DHS. He can also encourage states to remove REAL ID as a requirement.

Biometric tracking of the population is an Orwellian nightmare waiting to happen. Maybe not under Trump, but under another government this will undoubtedly become a threat to people’s freedoms.  The feds do not need to know where we are and what we are doing all the time.

Overall, I would weigh Trump’s presidency as exceedingly positive, especially compared to the grotesque degeneracy and autocracy we faced under the Democrats. If Trump can take a hard stance against Patriot Act era violations of the constitution, if he can better communicate his economic vision and keep America out of foreign entanglements that could lead to global hellfire, then he might end up as one of the greatest presidents in modern history.

*  *  *

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Tyler Durden
Fri, 05/09/2025 – 17:00

Moscow’s Victory Day Held Without Incident As Ukrainian Drone Attacks Cease

Moscow’s Victory Day Held Without Incident As Ukrainian Drone Attacks Cease

The days leading up to Russia’s Friday Victory Day celebrations witnessed record levels of drone attacks from Ukraine, but Friday observances, which has included dozens of world leaders on hand for the customary a massive military parade through Red Square – went off without a hitch. Chinese and North Korean military delegations and officials were also present.

Ukraine appears to be respecting President Putin’s unilaterally declared three-day truce in honor of the 80th anniversary of the end of WW2, and this is seen in the fact that there have been no reports of inbound drones threatening Moscow.

Victory Day on Friday, via Associated Press

A total of 29 foreign leaders attended the celebrations, despite the last 48 hours of intermittent airport delays and flight pauses due to prior drone threats. The leaders of China, Brazil, Egypt, Slovakia, Serbia, and Uzbekistan have taken part with discussions led by Putin – and joint statements with Xi has been a particular focus.

Also, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is in Moscow for his first visit in 15 years. He has offered Russia wide-ranging cooperation on nuclear energy, defense and space, the Kremlin confirmed Friday.

“In addition, the countries are currently actively working to launch joint projects in the fields of AI, medicine, industry, and mining,” a Kremlin statement said. Lula told Putin, “My visit today is aimed at strengthening the building of our strategic partnership.”

Chinese and North Korean military delegations were part of Friday’s events – which is somewhat unprecedented in terms of numbers and visibility. Putin also met with North Korean officers:

“We’re interested in discussing military, space, scientific, economic, educational and above all energy,” Lula added.

Watch: compilation of key moments from Victory Day events on Friday, via RT:

One news source which focuses on Russia and is based in Amsterdam detailed that Russia implemented tight security controls for the civic holiday nationwide, but affirmed no major security events or disruptions:

Beyond the main event on Red Square, capitals of Russia’s regions and ethnic republics — and even small villages — held military parades and air shows, while civilians marched in Immortal Regiment processions for the first time since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. 

Commemorations were held amid heightened security measures over fears of possible sabotage attacks. Mobile internet shutdowns were recorded in at least 31 Russian regions since Thursday evening, and spectators had to pass through metal detectors and undergo thorough searches to access closed-off celebration areas. 

Though no major security incidents were reported Friday, the fighting in Ukraine still loomed over the day’s events, even as far away from the front lines as Siberia and the Far East.    

So there has not been a full ceasefire along the front lines, and yet Kiev refrained from sending drones or missiles across the border.

Commemoration events took place in every region of Russia, and across Siberia and the East. For example, the republic of Sakha, Aysen Nikolaev, declared while overseeing victory parades…

“[Today] the fight against fascism has united all Russians around our national leader, Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin. Eleven of the bravest sons of Yakutia were awarded the title of Hero of Russia and thousands were awarded [other] high state awards [for serving in Ukraine],” said Nikolaev. 

President Trump earlier said that these small windows of ceasefire were promising, and he wants Putin to sign on to a fuller 30-day ceasefire, while also dangling the possibility of reducing or removing anti-Russian sanctions.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 05/09/2025 – 16:40

Jaguar Begins Search For New Ad Agency After Woke Disaster

Jaguar Begins Search For New Ad Agency After Woke Disaster

Five months after Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) effectively “Bud Light’d” itself with a woke social media campaign, the British automaker is reportedly severing ties with its ad agency, according to British media. 

But why now—half a year later? The backlash over its controversial woke rebranding occurred last fall, yet the company’s pronoun-wielding executive publicly defended the cringe ad at the time.

The Telegraph first reported that JLR was severing ties with its ad agency, Accenture Song, after the marketing disaster on November 19.

Elon Musk asked JLR: “Do you sell cars?” 

In 2021, Accenture Song joined forces with Spark44, JLR’s client-agency joint venture, to create a new marketing approach for JLR’s shift to an electric-first, modern luxury business.

But JLR’s marketing blunder was merely a repeat of Bud Light’s trans activism and a lesson for corporations not to stack their teams with woke activists.

Much like Bud Light’s disastrous foray into identity politics, JLR fell into the same woke trap. Now, the brand is paying the price as a multi-year sales decline deepens.

Days after the ad was launched and backlash erupted, Jaguar boss Rawdon Glover said the ad’s “intended message” had been lost in “a blaze of intolerance” on social media platforms and rejected the notion that the video was woke.

“If we play in the same way that everybody else does, we’ll just get drowned out. So we shouldn’t turn up like an auto brand,” Glover stated. On LinkedIn, the executive still promotes his pronouns…

Unlike JLR, Volvo’s ad team read the room. Sensing the Overton Window had shifted away from far-left wokeism toward themes of family, tradition, and stability—they released this…

Revisiting the earlier question: Why did JLR wait six months to start searching for a new ad agency?

Was it due to slumping sales, or perhaps pressure related to tariffs? We may never get the full story—but what’s clear is this: woke marketing is dead. Companies view the purple-haired college graduate as an increasing liability rather than an asset. 

Why does Aston Martin get it?

. . . 

Tyler Durden
Fri, 05/09/2025 – 15:45

India-Pakistan Fighting Suddenly Escalates To Most Expansive In Decades

India-Pakistan Fighting Suddenly Escalates To Most Expansive In Decades

Friday has seen the border conflict between India and Pakistan escalate once again, with The New York Times describing that it has escalated to the most expansive military clashes in decades. Entire large expanses of border zones are swarming with drones overhead – a first in the history of the long-running rivalry. 

“There were reports of nonstop barrages along the border overnight into Friday, as well as reports of attacks by Pakistan into the Indian city of Jammu, a part of Kashmir,” the Times report says, citing that drone attacks have been exchanged along India’s entire western border.

Via Reuters

Pakistan has rejected Indian Army claims that all drone attacks into India have been intercepted. There’s been days of a ‘fog of war’ environment in which it’s been impossible for outside media to verify each claim and counter-claim.

NYT further observes:

India’s defense officials said Pakistan’s military had attempted aerial intrusions in 36 locations with “300 to 400” drones to test India’s air defense system. The officials said they had identified the drones as made in Turkey.

And more troop losses have been reported, after Pakistan claimed up to 50 Indian droops had died in the last day of fighting. Indian defense officials said their forces had suffered “some losses and injuries” last night, a Times  correspondent says Friday.

According to more, “Artillery in the disputed region of Kashmir has been ferocious, and dozens of civilians have been reported killed on both sides of the boundary.”

But despite several historic wars between the nuclear-armed rivals, what makes this week ‘new’ and unprecedented is the use of drones and loitering munitions, or ‘suicide’ UAVs. 

“Still, the escalation is not visible in the death toll” – in towns and villages along the Line of Control (LOC), NYT continues. “Relatively few people have been reported killed by those weapons since the first night of India’s offensive.”

The ongoing blackout in Indian-administered Kashmir has been accompanied by the constant sounds of shelling and overhead drones. “I’m at my workplace and can see red light and explosions in the sky,” one local eyewitness told Al Jazeera.

Blackout in Jammu and Kashmir’s Katra:

Al Jazeera’s latest reporting also strongly suggests rapid escalation, including alleged militants seeking to cross into India from Pakistani areas:

We’re also getting reports of a blackout in Jammu.

There have been fast-moving developments overnight, including India saying it has taken down several Pakistani drones and missiles and also stopped armed men trying to cross into the Indian side.

There have also been a lot of security developments in many cities, including the Indian capital, New Delhi, which is on high alert.

And CNN in a fresh update reports, “We can hear sirens and there is complete blackout. … We can hear the blasts intermittently for about 20 to 30 minutes now; my family and I are hunkered down at home.”

Tyler Durden
Fri, 05/09/2025 – 15:05

Fear Of Economic Collapse Forced China To Negotiate With Trump, Quietly Reach Out First: Reuters Report

Fear Of Economic Collapse Forced China To Negotiate With Trump, Quietly Reach Out First: Reuters Report

Three weeks ago, when we first reported that as a result of the ongoing Trump trade war with China, “chinese factories are shutting down, laying off workers“, we said that as a result of this war of attrition in which the outcome of every incremental clash and battle will be used just as aggressively for media propaganda, “the fact that any marginal pain will be amplified as trade war weakness will mean that Beijing will do everything in its power to prevent the full extent of the shutdowns from being revealed.”

Sure enough, last week the WSJ reported that whereas “not long ago, anyone could comb through a wide range of official data from China… then it started to disappear.” 

We detailed the unprecedented disappearance of Chinese “data”, fake as it traditionally may have been, earlier this week. But while we had our theories why China quietly vaporized hundreds of data sets – naturally one wouldn’t be deleting the data if it was good, or could at least be massaged in a credible way – it was not until today when a Reuters report confirmed what we said from day one, namely that in the long run China’s economy has more to lose than the US, where the hit would be faster but would focus primarily on the market, and once the initial selloff shock wears off leverage would swing to benefit the White House.

And just as we supposed, Beijing’s unprecedented propaganda campaign, it was the cracks in the economy that forced Xi to the negotiating. According to the Reuters report, “since U.S. President Donald Trump imposed steep tariffs on China last month, Beijing had responded in kind. On state and social media, it posted images of Mao Zedong, lambasted “imperialists,” and sent a message: capitulation to bullies is dangerous, and it wouldn’t back down.”

But behind closed doors, China was quietly preparing to do just that, and Reuters reports that according three sources, officials had grown “increasingly alarmed about tariffs’ impact on the economy and the risk of isolation as China’s trading partners have started negotiating deals with Washington.”

China’s reasons for deciding to negotiate, Washington’s letter on fentanyl, U.S. diplomatic challenges in Beijing, and the early outreach between the two sides are reported by Reuters for the first time, based on interviews with nearly a dozen government officials and experts on both sides.

As usual, China’s diplomatic efforts had two faces, one for popular domestic consumption, and one for private engagement with the adversary, in this case the US. 

Sure enough, China’s foreign ministry said in a statement to Reuters that it reiterated that “China’s firm opposition to the U.S. abuse of tariffs is consistent and clear, and there is no change.”  It added that “the U.S. has ignored China’s goodwill and unreasonably imposed tariffs on China under the pretext of fentanyl. This is a typical act of bullying, which seriously undermines dialogue and cooperation between the two sides in the field of drug control.”

In retrospect, the pretext may have been “fentanyl” but as we learn in a follow up report today from the WSJ, it was anything but a facade: according to the Journal, Xi Jinping is sending his top public-security aide to Switzerland as part of Beijing’s trade talks with Washington, signaling the importance of the fentanyl issue to bilateral relations.

Wang Xiaohong, who is the minister of public security and a senior leader within the State Council, China’s cabinet, will be part of the Chinese delegation led by Vice Premier He Lifeng, a trusted aide to Xi and a gatekeeper to the world’s second-largest economy…. Xi has designated Wang, a close lieutenant, as the point person in Beijing’s recent discussions with Washington over how to address President Trump’s concerns about China’s role in the fentanyl trade, The Wall Street Journal has reported, helping pave the way for the weekend trade talks.

So no, the US had not “ignored China’s goodwill”, and judging by Xi’s response, clearly the issue of fentanyl is a very serious one, and more importantly, one which will allow Trump to score a quick and easy victory over the weekend, one which will further demonstrate the Trump admin’s growing leverage in the ongoing negotiations.

But back to the Reuters report, according to which China’s Vice Foreign Minister Hua Chunying said on Friday that China has full confidence in its ability to manage U.S. trade issues, adding that “the Trump administration’s approach cannot be sustained.” Once again, however, we learn that it was China’s approach which was far more unsustainable.

The trade war between the world’s two largest economies, combined with Trump’s decision last month to impose duties on dozens of other countries, has disrupted supply chains, unsettled financial markets and stoked fears of a sharp downturn in global growth.

After Trump’s tariff salvo last month, China took a hard line in its public messaging. Beijing posted footage on its official social media feeds of a Chinese MiG-15 fighter shooting down a U.S. jet in the Korean War, with commentary: “China won’t kneel down, because we know standing up for ourselves keeps the possibility of cooperation alive, while compromise snuffs it out.” The tone began to shift on April 30, when a state media-affiliated blog said the U.S. had “proactively reached out to China through multiple channels, hoping to discuss tariffs”, commentary which according to the White House was a lie. Meanwhile, China was adamantly denying that there were any discussions taking place about trade talks, which was also a lie as just a day later we learned that discussions were in fact taking place ahead of this weekend’s trade talks.

CSIS’s Kennedy said contacts between Chinese agencies, Beijing’s embassy in Washington and the Trump administration had been increasing in frequency in recent weeks. Some in-person interactions took place at the International Monetary Fund and World Bank meetings in late April, including with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, which paved the way for the Swiss meeting, said Kennedy, confirming what we reported two weeks ago ( see “Chinese Delegation Spotted Entering Treasury Department, Demands Photos Be Deleted: Report“.)

More importantly, we also learn today that it was China that first reached out, more than a month ago.

After Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, Reuters reports that Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao quietly reached out to his U.S. counterpart, Howard Lutnick, but was rebuffed as not senior enough, according to one official familiar with the exchanges. While Trump has been pushing for direct talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping, China had originally rejected that idea as not in keeping with its traditional approach of working out the details first before the leaders sign any deal, according to public statements by both sides. Which is why after the original Chinese overture was shut down, both sides engaged in unprecedented diplomatic jingoism to deflect attention from the failure to pursue a diplomatic solution.

There’s more: another significant factor for China was Trump’s public berating of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in February, said one of the sources, adding that any unscripted hostile interaction between the U.S. and Chinese leaders would represent an unacceptable loss of face for Xi.

But as messaging on both sides grew more conciliatory, China decided to put forward its vice premier and Xi confidant He Lifeng, whose direct predecessor struck the “Phase One” trade deal with the U.S. in 2019.

The move satisfied Washington’s demands for substantive talks with a senior official with direct access to Xi, but avoided exposing the Chinese leader to potential embarrassment, said one of the sources.

As for the choice of venue, the Swiss foreign ministry said that “during its recent contacts in Washington and Beijing, Switzerland expressed to the U.S. and Chinese authorities its willingness to organize a meeting between the two parties in Geneva.”

And while that addresses the how and where, the big question is why? And what is key about the Reuters report is that it confirms what we had reported all throughout the first month of the trade war, namely that “the main drivers of Beijing’s climb-down were internal signals that Chinese companies were struggling to avoid bankruptcies and to replace the U.S. market, three people familiar with the Chinese government’s thinking said.”

Some segments feeling immediate impact were furniture and toy makers, as well as textiles, one of the officials told Reuters. US diplomats in China had also been closely monitoring factory closures, strikes, and job losses in the industrial heartland in southern China, all of which were deteriorating rapidly, and confirming that Trump’s gambit had worked.

Many analysts have downgraded their 2025 economic growth forecasts for China, and Goldman and Nomura warned the trade war could cost it up to 16 million jobs. Earlier this week, admitting just how bad the local economy had gotten, China’s central bank this week announced fresh monetary stimulus (while the Fed did nothing).

One of the officials said Chinese companies were struggling to replace the U.S. market because developing nations cannot buy as many items, and that for many firms “this was an existential threat that needed to be resolved in days or weeks.”

In addition, Beijing – which had made loud noises warning its “allies” not to engage in negotiations with the US – was worried it was left without a place at the negotiating table while its major trading partners, such as Vietnam, India and Japan, began talks with Washington, said two officials familiar with Beijing’s thinking.

In a warning to the countries negotiating with the U.S., China’s commerce ministry said in a statement this week that “appeasement cannot bring peace, compromise cannot be respected, and adhering to principled positions and upholding fairness and justice is the right way to safeguard one’s own interests.” The statement did nothing to change the direction of negotiations.

In Geneva, Beijing appears to have modest expectations, and certainly now after a report confirming that Trump indeed has the upper hand.

Internally, China has downgraded the talks from a higher level to merely a meeting, reflecting its view that the discussions will be mostly about finding out Washington’s demands and red lines after weeks of contradictory messages by Trump and other senior U.S. officials, according to a person familiar with the matter.  Still, one official said China could draw on its extensive toolbox and follow Asian neighbors in offering to buy more American liquefied natural gas, a step which could be seen as capitulation – and thus devastating to Xi’s reputation – unless it is offset by some action by Trump.

On the table may also be purchases of agricultural goods, similar to the 2019 “Phase One” deal during Trump’s first term. At the time, Beijing said it would increase purchases of U.S. agricultural products by $32 billion over two years. While other matters like the U.S.’s axing of the “de minimis” exemption for packages under $800 from China and the sale of TikTok are also likely to play a part in the broader talks, Chinese officials said they do not expect them to play a central role this weekend.

Even before triggering the broader trade war, Trump imposed a 20% tariff on Chinese goods, saying Beijing wasn’t doing enough to counter the flow of chemicals used to produce the deadly drug fentanyl. One of the moves that complicated the rapprochement, according to two officials, was a letter sent by the U.S. to China in late April that outlined the steps Trump wanted Beijing to take on fentanyl.

The document, reviewed by Reuters, caused friction with Beijing because it referenced a congressional report that asserted China, through value-added tax rebates for exporters, directly subsidizes production of fentanyl precursors for sale abroad. China denies it does so, although following the WSJ report, it appears that it actually does so.

The letter, sent to the ministries of foreign affairs, commerce, and public security, called on Beijing to publicize the crackdown on fentanyl precursors on the front page of the Communist Party mouthpiece People’s Daily; send a similar message through “internal party channels” to party members; tighten regulation of some specified chemicals; and deepen law-enforcement cooperation.

Two officials familiar with China’s reaction said it found especially the first two points “arrogant” because Beijing saw it as the U.S. dictating what China should do within its ruling apparatus. 

Of course, we now know that fentanyl would feature prominently in the Geneva talks and that the U.S. government’s opening position would be to present the four points to China. A U.S. official familiar with the letter said the Trump administration simply wanted China to curb the flow of fentanyl precursors to drug cartels, in a move that would allow Xi to save some face.

Which is not to say that the US approach in the negotiations has been seamless. Complicating the negotiations, Trump’s Washington team has frozen out many U.S. embassy officials responsible for earlier contacts with Chinese counterparts, two people familiar with the matter said. Trump’s new ambassador to China, David Perdue, is slated to arrive in Beijing next week, but Deputy Chief of Mission Sarah Beran, who served as a senior official on China in the Biden administration’s National Security Council, was removed from her post this week, the two officials said. 

The turmoil has resulted in lack of internal consultations on demands put forward by the American side, the officials said. An official familiar with Chinese thinking said there had been minimal contact with the U.S. embassy ahead of the Geneva talks.

In the end, however, both sides are about to sit down, and now that it is clear just how more powerful the economic hit to China has been – bizarrely receiving virtually no coverage by the anti-Trump American press which has been acting as if it works on behalf of Beijing for the past month – and how big the imbalance in political leverage between the US and China is, expect Trump to push for a quick, easy win and proceed from there with detailed negotiations that will likely take much of the next 2-3 years, and where every modest victory will be used to wash out any and all incremental market shorts, just as we saw during the first Trade War of 2018-2019.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 05/09/2025 – 14:25

GOP Weighs 21% Tax On University Endowments

GOP Weighs 21% Tax On University Endowments

Update (1335ET): As Trump’s ‘tax the rich’ idea has reportedly resulted in “massive finger pointing and disarray,” according to Charles Gasparino, Bloomberg now reports that House Republicans are weighing a proposal to dramatically increase taxes on wealthy university endowments, according to people familiar with a draft of the tax package under discussion. The plan, not yet finalized, would create a tiered system that raises the current 1.4% levy to rates as high as 14% to 21%, depending on endowment size.

The measure is part of a broader effort by President Donald Trump and his allies to reshape higher education policy and assert greater control over elite institutions. Trump is expected to meet Friday with House Ways and Means Committee Chair Jason Smith to review the draft. Portions of the bill could be released as soon as Sunday night or Monday.

Trump’s 2017 tax package, which Republicans are moving to renew, implemented an endowment levy of 1.4% on net investment income, similar to one that private foundations pay. That levy generated more than $380 million from 56 colleges or universities in 2023 — though it affected just a small fraction of the 1,700 private, nonprofit US schools. 

House Budget Committee Chairman Jodey Arrington floated a long list of possible budget cuts in January that included raising $10 billion over 10 years by raising the endowment tax to 14%. -Bloomberg

The proposal targets some of the nation’s wealthiest schools, including Harvard and Yale, where per-student endowments exceed $500,000. Harvard, with a $53.2 billion endowment, has been in a legal battle with the federal government over funding freezes and has previously faced threats to its tax-exempt status.

Republicans argue the move would ensure universities direct more of their funds toward student needs and away from initiatives opposed by conservatives, such as DEI programs or legal challenges to Trump-era policies.

*  *  *

On Thursday, Bloomberg reported that President Donald Trump has been urging GOP lawmakers to raise taxes on Americans making at least $2.5 million annually, or couples making $5 million. We waited for a denial, only to get some ‘clarification’ today.

In a Friday morning Truth Social post, Trump suggested that Republicans ‘should probably not do it,’ but “I’m OK if they do!!!”

Trump says that the problem with ‘even a “TINY” tax increase for the RICH’ is that ‘Democrat Lunatics would go around screaming, “Read my lips,” the fabled Quote by George Bush the Elder that is said to have cost him the election,” – referring to then-candidate George H.W. Bush’s 1988 campaign promise not to raise taxes as president – which of course he did not keep, and was seen as a factor in his loss in the 1992 election.

Trump reportedly reached out to House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) to push the tax, which would restore a 39.6% bracket to its pre-2017 level. The current top rate stands at 37%. The president also reiterated support for ending the carried interest tax break, a longstanding benefit claimed by private equity and venture capital managers, according to the report.

The proposal is undoubtedly an attempt to mitigate concerns over the GOP’s current plans to make Trump’s 2017 tax cuts permanent without having to chip away at hot-button entitlement programs.

Representative Jason Smith, the Missouri Republican who chairs the powerful House Ways and Means Committee, is expected to meet with President Trump today. A congressional aide told BBG that Smith plans to assure the president that the forthcoming tax bill ‘will deliver on the president’s priorities.’

While the proposal’s full contours remain under negotiation, it is not yet clear whether it would include an expansion of the existing small business income exemption under the individual tax code.

The push to raise the top rate comes as House Republicans face mounting fiscal pressure in drafting what President Trump has labeled the “one big beautiful bill” — a multi-trillion-dollar package aimed at extending the 2017 tax cuts while enacting a range of new promises, including eliminating taxes on tips and overtime pay.

To finance the plan, GOP leaders have struggled to find consensus on cuts to entitlement programs such as Medicaid, prompting President Trump to float alternatives.

Last month, Johnson said that he was “not in favor of raising the tax rates, because our party is the group that stands against that traditionally.”

Also last month, Trump told Time magazine that “I would be honored to pay more, but I don’t want to be in a position where we lose an election because I was generous — but me, as a rich person, would not mind paying and you know, we’re talking about very little,” adding “We’re talking about one point. It doesn’t make that much difference, and yet, I could just see somebody trying to bring that up as a subject, and, you know, say, ‘Oh, he raised taxes.’”

Tyler Durden
Fri, 05/09/2025 – 13:35

Arizona Becomes Second State To Establish Strategic Bitcoin Reserve

Arizona Becomes Second State To Establish Strategic Bitcoin Reserve

Authored by Oscar Zarrage Perez via BitcoinMagazine.com,

Arizona has made history by becoming the second state in the U.S. to create a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. 

On Thursday, Governor Katie Hobbs signed House Bill 2749 into law, officially launching the Arizona Bitcoin & Digital Assets Reserve, a pioneering move that channels profits from unclaimed property into Bitcoin and other top-tier digital assets.

The bill outlines several key features:

  • Redirection of unclaimed-property profits toward Bitcoin and other digital assets

  • Use of interest, staking rewards, and airdrops from abandoned property to fund strategic acquisitions

  • Strong diversification rules, ensuring Bitcoin supplements — but doesn’t dominate — Arizona’s investment portfolio

  • Mandated U.S.-regulated custody for the assets

  • Clear implementation steps that allow the state to begin purchasing digital assets and “stacking sats”

  • Native Bitcoin redemption, which means lost Bitcoin can be returned in BTC rather than U.S. dollars

The law positions Arizona alongside New Hampshire in transforming idle state assets into potentially appreciating stores of value. By putting otherwise unused funds to work, the state is taking a strategic, forward-looking approach to safeguard its treasury without raising taxes or using the general fund.

“Arizona just showed the country how to turn forgotten assets into a fortress against inflation,” said Dennis Porter, CEO and Co-Founder of the Satoshi Action Fund, a key advocate for the bill. 

“With HB 2749, lawmakers converted dormant dollars into digital gold — without touching the taxpayer’s pocket. It’s a win for fiscal responsibility and for every Arizonan who believes in sound money.”

Cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase also played a role by offering expert testimony that helped propel the bill through legislative hurdles, according to Satoshi Action Fund. Their involvement gave lawmakers a clearer understanding of the financial and technological implications of Bitcoin-based reserves.

Representative Jeff Weninger (R-Chandler), the bill’s sponsor, was credited with tirelessly shepherding the legislation from its early draft stages through multiple committee hearings, stakeholder meetings, and floor votes, ultimately securing bipartisan support and ensuring its successful passage into law.

“Digital assets aren’t the future—they’re the present,” said Weninger. 

“This law ensures Arizona doesn’t leave value sitting on the table and puts us in a position to lead the country in how we secure, manage, and ultimately benefit from abandoned digital currency. We’ve built a structure that protects property rights, respects ownership, and gives the state tools to account for a new category of value in the economy. It’s exactly the kind of policy we should be leading on—modern, precise, and built with an understanding of where technology and finance are heading.”

The Satoshi Action Fund, which helped draft and advocate for HB 2749, has become a leading voice in Bitcoin policy. To date, the organization has contributed to the passage of eight pro-Bitcoin laws and inspired more than 20 additional legislative efforts across the country.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 05/09/2025 – 13:25

Stealth Bomber Returns From Diego Garcia As U.S.-Iran Nuclear Talks Head To Fourth Round 

Stealth Bomber Returns From Diego Garcia As U.S.-Iran Nuclear Talks Head To Fourth Round 

An Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT) account on X has identified flight tracking data indicating that a B-2 Spirit Stealth Bomber, recently deployed to Diego Garcia—the U.S. airbase often referred to as an “unsinkable aircraft carrier” located in the Indian Ocean—is returning or en route to Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri. 

While not officially confirmed, the timing and visibility of the B-2’s return flight may suggest deliberate signaling by U.S. military forces. The movement, coinciding with headlines regarding progressing nuclear talks with the U.S.-Iran, hints at the potential alignment between military posture and backchannel negotiations. Or this may have been a routine flight because stealth bombers aren’t built for prolonged exposure to salt air. 

At 1130 ET, X user EISNspotter wrote on X that the stealth bomber was “heading home to Whiteman AFB after deployment to NSF Diego Garcia, working San Francisco Radio HF 8843.” 

The timing of the B-2’s return closely aligns with Reuters reporting that Iran has agreed to a fourth round of indirect nuclear negotiations with the U.S., scheduled to take place in Oman on Sunday. 

Iranian news outlet Tasnim offered more details on the upcoming talks: “Following a proposal by the Omani foreign minister to hold the fourth round of talks on Sunday, Tehran has announced its agreement,” adding, “The fourth round of Iran-U.S. talks in Oman has been finalised.” 

In recent months, multiple open-source indicators—including flight tracking data and satellite imagery—have confirmed a U.S. military buildup of B-2s at Diego Garcia, a key U.S. airbase located in the Indian Ocean.

Trump, who previously withdrew the U.S. from the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), has publicly threatened to bomb Iran if no new nuclear agreement is reached. However, during remarks about a U.S.-U.K. trade deal on Thursday, the president stated he “doesn’t want any big bombing” of Iran—signaling a potential shift or softening in tone on Tehran as the fourth round of talks begins on Sunday. 

The question remains whether Trump’s maximum pressure campaign on Tehran can break the regime.

There is still a risk Israel may preemptively strike and dismantle Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities with F-35 stealth jets. 

Tyler Durden
Fri, 05/09/2025 – 13:05

Victor Davis Hanson Shatters The Media’s Favorite Lie About Trump

Victor Davis Hanson Shatters The Media’s Favorite Lie About Trump

Via VigilantFox.com,

For years, the media have used fake polls to manipulate public opinion and crush Trump’s momentum.

But Victor Davis Hanson just revealed that the polls are not only wrong—he showed they were rigged, by design.

Polling is now just a weapon, used to suppress Trump’s base and supercharge Democrat fundraising.

And once you hear the evidence, you’ll never trust another mainstream poll again.

Lately, the media’s been pushing a familiar narrative: Trump is tanking in the polls.

But Victor Davis Hanson says that story doesn’t hold up—and once you see what’s behind the numbers, it starts to look a lot more like propaganda than polling.

So where did it all come from?

“We’ve touched on polls before,” Hanson said, “but I don’t think I’ve seen anything quite as egregious in pollsters’ bias as recently when they… purportedly surveyed the first 100 days of Donald Trump and the public reaction.”

Headlines immediately screamed: Worst first 100 days in history.

Trump’s approval supposedly dropped from 52 to 41 percent.

But as Hanson pointed out, none of that lined up with reality.

“The economic news was pretty good,” he explained.

Trump has been racking up the wins:

“Job growth was just spectacular—over 170,000 jobs. Inflation was down. Energy prices were down. Corporate profits were up. There was a movement on the trade question. Ukraine, still—there was no bad news except the controversy and chaos of a counterrevolution.”

So why were the polls painting such a grim picture?

Hanson believes the goal wasn’t to reflect public opinion—it was to steer it.

“What were the pollsters trying to tell us,” he asked, “or were they trying to manipulate us? I think it’s the latter.”

He pointed to analysis from Larry Kudlow, who found that top polls—like those from The New York Times and The Washington Post—deliberately underrepresented Trump voters.

“They were deliberately not counting people who surveyed that they were Trump voters in 2024,” Hanson said.

“That was half the country.”

Even worse:

“They were only polling about a third,”

“Think of that. A third of the people that said they voted for Trump, they polled—not half. So of course the results were going to be disputed or suspect.”

And this isn’t the first time.

Hanson reminded us that pollsters have repeatedly missed the mark—in 2016, 2020, and again in 2024.

“They said they had learned their lessons. And they were way off in 2024.”

It all comes down to artificial leads.

Hanson doesn’t chalk this up to sloppy methods or innocent mistakes. He believes it’s deliberate.

“Liberal pollsters—and that’s the majority—believe that if they create artificial leads for their Democratic candidates, it creates greater fundraising and momentum.”

It’s a psychological game.

“Kind of the herd mentality,”

“‘Oh. Trump is down by six. I don’t want to vote for him then. He won’t win.’ That’s the type of thing that they want to create.”

One poll in particular stood out as the worst offender.

Hanson explained:

“The most egregious of all these polls was the NPR, PBS, Marist poll,” Hanson said.

“They have Donald Trump just very unpopular after 100 days.”

He reminded viewers that this same poll—funded by the now-defunded Corporation for Public Broadcasting—was the one that came out the night before the 2024 election.

It claimed Kamala Harris would win by four points.

“They said it was beyond the margin of error.”

“And one of the pollsters said it’s her race to lose.”

“She lost by a point and a half,”

“They were five and a half points off. Did they apologize? No.”

Even worse, he said, the Harris campaign knew the public polling was wrong.

“David Plouffe… just recently came out and said, ‘We had all these inside polls we never disclosed, but not one of them—not one of them—had Harris ever ahead of Trump.’”

And that’s because internal polls don’t lie.

“Nothing will get you fired and lose income quicker than to lie about a poll so that your candidate will be happy and rely on your false information.”

“They knew the whole time——that 15 of those 20 polls, 19 polls that all had Harris winning the election, they were all false.”

And here’s where it all comes together.

According to Hanson, the only polls that got it right were the ones with nothing to prove—just data to report.

“Mark Penn was very accurate,” he said.

“He’s a Democratic pollster. But especially the Rasmussen poll, Insider Advantage, and the Trafalgar poll—they joined together and they had a 100-day survey.”

“Rasmussen, each day of the 100-day period—had Trump ahead by anywhere from two to three points. And they were the most accurate.”

Yet the media ignored those numbers and declared Trump’s presidency a disaster.

“No—he’s polling very well.”

“Because the pollsters that indicate that people support him are the only pollsters that have any reputation after this decade-long polling disaster.”

In the end, Hanson said, the story wasn’t about public opinion at all. It was about power.

“They were effectively in league with the Democratic candidate to create momentum,” he said, “rather than adhere to a spirit of professionalism and honor.”

Tyler Durden
Fri, 05/09/2025 – 12:40

Kari Lake Strikes Deal For OAN To Provide News Content To Voice Of America

Kari Lake Strikes Deal For OAN To Provide News Content To Voice Of America

Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The U.S. Agency for Global Media (USAGM) will begin using content from broadcaster One America News Network (OAN).

Kari Lake speaks at a campaign event in Mesa, Ariz., on Sept. 4, 2024. Ross D. Franklin/AP Photo

Kari Lake, a former Arizona gubernatorial candidate and senior adviser to USAGM, unveiled the agreement in a May 6 statement, calling the OAN deal a taxpayer win. Under the deal, OAN will provide its video and news feed to USAGM’s networks—including Voice of America (VOA), Radio Martí, and the Office of Cuba Broadcasting—free of charge.

“This is an enormous benefit to the American taxpayer, who is the sole source of funding for USAGM’s news outlets, which broadcast only to international audiences,” Lake said, adding that she’s “grateful for their generosity.”

Lake said the idea originated with the Office of Cuba Broadcasting, which proposed OAN as a content partner for its Miami-based broadcasts to Cuba. After Lake reached out, OAN agreed to provide its English-language content at no cost.

Although Lake currently holds no editorial authority over VOA or Office of Cuba Broadcasting programming, she said the arrangement expands the range of news content available to agency journalists.

“In my current role as Senior Advisor to USAGM, I don’t have editorial control over the content of VOA and OCB programming, but I can ensure our outlets have reliable and credible options as they work to craft their reporting and news programs,” she said. “And every day, I look for ways to save American taxpayers money. Bringing in OAN as a video/news source does both.”

The content deal comes amid a sweeping overhaul of USAGM under President Donald Trump’s second-term plan to shrink the federal government and dismantle what he describes as wasteful agencies. A March executive order identified USAGM as one of eight federal entities slated for elimination or radical downsizing, directing agency heads to wind down all non-legally required functions.

In response, USAGM placed over 1,000 employees on leave and informed some 600 contractors their roles would be terminated as broadcasts were paused. The agency also began terminating contracts with major wire services—including The Associated Press, Reuters, and Agence France-Presse—which Lake called “expensive and unnecessary.”

“With a nearly billion-dollar budget, we should be producing news ourselves,” Lake said at the time. “If that’s not possible, the American taxpayer should demand to know why.”

Lake estimated the move would save $53 million annually and signaled a broader review of agency expenditures, saying she had discovered “a lot of nonsense that the American taxpayer should not be paying for.”

The reorganization has drawn sharp pushback from some VOA journalists and advocates. Two VOA staffers, White House bureau chief Patsy Widakuswara and press freedom editor Jessica Jerreat, are among several employees suing the Trump administration over its handling of the agency.

The two criticized the OAN content deal, saying it could undermine VOA’s credibility and editorial independence.

“Congress mandated VOA to report reliable and authoritative news, not to outsource its journalism to outlets aligned with the president’s agenda,” they said in a statement. “VOA already has talented and professional journalists ready to tell America’s story in line with the VOA Charter, but we are blocked from our own newsroom.”

Trump, who has frequently attacked public broadcasters such as NPR and PBS, has long viewed VOA as a source of liberal bias. In a March statement supporting the executive order to defund USAGM, the White House labeled VOA “The Voice of Radical America,” and declared that “taxpayers are no longer on the hook for radical propaganda.”

Democrats on the House Foreign Affairs Committee also criticized the OAN deal and the Trump administration’s characterization of VOA.

“The Trump administration smeared VOA and USAGM as radical and biased to justify gutting it. Now Kari Lake wants to repurpose VOA as a megaphone for OAN—a far-right, pro-Trump propaganda outlet,” they wrote in a post on X. “VOA was built to fight propaganda—not broadcast it.”

Meanwhile, a federal judge last month ordered the Trump administration to reinstate VOA employees, and an appeals court quickly blocked the ruling, finding that the lower court lacked the authority to intervene.

Launched in 2013, OAN is a family-owned media outlet known for its conservative perspectives.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 05/09/2025 – 12:10