So Much Winning: Hyundai Latest Company In A Long Line To Announce Billion Dollar Investments In U.S.
Hyundai Motor Co. plans to invest $20 billion in the U.S., a move President Trump will highlight during a White House event with Louisiana Governor Jeff Landry, according to Bloomberg.
A portion of the investment will fund a new steel mill in Louisiana, expected to employ 1,500 workers and supply Hyundai and Kia’s American EV production. The announcement comes amid growing trade tensions, with Trump set to roll out reciprocal tariffs on April 2 targeting countries he deems unfair to U.S. trade interests.
Hyundai’s decision mirrors a broader trend of foreign companies increasing U.S. production to avoid Trump’s escalating tariff threats.
The Bloomberg article notes that the president has already imposed 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum and has hinted at new levies on sectors like autos, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals. South Korea, labeled a trade abuser by Trump, may be among the nations targeted, though officials have yet to release a final list.
Trump’s aggressive tariff agenda has injected uncertainty into global markets and rattled domestic industries, particularly autos and steel. While domestic steelmakers may see short-term gains, analysts warn that high borrowing costs, inflation, and weakening demand could dampen the benefits.
Meanwhile, Trump has offered temporary relief to automakers on tariffs from Mexico and Canada, underlining his broader goal to localize supply chains and reduce reliance on foreign imports.
Recall, in recent days, the Trump team is racking up victories related to bringing investment back to the United States. Among them, Rolls-Royce also announced it was going to be ramping up production in the U.S., Yahoo Finance/The Telegraph reported.
The company, which employs 6,000 people across 11 American sites, is expediting a review that could lead to hiring more U.S. workers and expanding North American operations to avoid the brunt of rising protectionism. Insiders say the firm is “tipping the balance” toward the U.S., aligning—perhaps reluctantly—with Trump’s push to revive American manufacturing through aggressive trade policies.
Meanwhile, the UAE has pledged to invest $1.4 trillion in the U.S. over the next decade, following a meeting between President Trump and an Emirati official, Forbes reported.
The deal, which includes funding for AI, semiconductors, and U.S. manufacturing, marks a major expansion of existing ties and follows Emirati billionaire Hussain Sajwani’s earlier $20 billion commitment to U.S. data centers.
“Tread Carefully”: Pam Bondi Issues Warning To Unhinged Rep. Jasmine Crockett Over Musk “Takedown”
We certainly did not have a member of Congress conspiring with radical far-left NGOs to sabotage the most made-in-America car company and critical to retirement and pension funds for millions of Americans on our 2025 bingo card.
But here we are, and far-left Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett (D-TX) joined a “Tesla Takedown” teleconference last week, laughing and rooting for Tesla and Elon Musk’s demise. Other revolutionaries on the call described how they wanted to “kill the Tesla brand” and “drive down the stock price” to push Tesla “into a death spiral.”
Now Attorney General Pam Bondi is getting involved, warning Crockett to “tread very carefully” following her support for the Tesla Takedown.
“She is an elected public official, so she needs to tread very carefully because nothing will happen to Elon Musk, and we’re going to fight to protect all of the Tesla owners throughout this country,” Bondi said on Fox’s “Sunday Morning Futures.”
Bondi’s warning to the unhinged Democrat comes days after her appearance on the Tesla Takedown teleconference:
EXCLUSIVE VIDEO:
Tonight, Radical Democrat Congresswoman @JasmineForUS Jasmine Crockett spoke on a CALL TO ACTION call organized by the @Tesla Takedown organizers who have been vandalizing and attacking @elonmusk’s Tesla Showrooms and charging stations across the country and all… pic.twitter.com/eqbPsseIhJ
Crockett’s alliance with Tesla Takedown is alarming, considering the Soros-funded non-profit Indivisible is preparing a multi-city assault on Tesla service locations nationwide by the end of the month.
There have been far-left terrorist attacks on Tesla service centers, showrooms, Supercharging networks, and vehicles that paint the Democratic Party as in disarray and resorting to communist revolutionary tactics.
DEVELOPING: Video provided to the Review-Journal shows several @Tesla vehicles engulfed in flames after Las Vegas police say they were set on fire by an individual early Tuesday morning.
UPDATES→ https://t.co/sZQr9j1E5Apic.twitter.com/uXeLsdpTVl
— Las Vegas Review-Journal (@reviewjournal) March 18, 2025
Polling data for the party has collapsed, while the latest ploy by the party to improve optics was entirely disproven to be “inorganic” by GPS data.
‘Inorganic’ – GPS Data Reveals Bernie Sanders, AOC Anti-Oligarchy Rally Was Full Of Serial Protesters https://t.co/TawQtLBvEe
The American people are finally getting to see the real Democratic Party—filled with hate and violence as its revolutionaries attack Tesla, all because the owner, Elon Musk, is uncovering massive fraud and waste by the Deep State.
Remember when Democrats wanted to defund everything after George Floyd? Yet suddenly, now they don’t.
Bondi ended with: “Domestic terrorism is going to come to a stop in this country.”
Last month Open the Books auditors took a closer look at the Federal Register – the official publication of the U.S. government. It publishes every new rule and regulation, every Executive Order and Congressional hearing, and much more. It should be a reliable encyclopedia of government, but we found at least 75 of the 441 entities listed were defunct – defunded, disbanded, renamed, merged with another entity, completed their mission, etc.
We all know waste is rampant – but this was more evidence that federal recordkeeping is also a big mess. The scope and complexity of the task before DOGE became even clearer in this context.
So we set out to catalog every agency that reports data – not just their current costs, but the size of their staffs and spending stretching back decades. The result will be the clearest picture yet of government’s growth over time.
We released the two batches of data in the ensuing weeks, tracking spending and headcounts for big Cabinet-level agencies like the Departments of Defense, Homeland Security, Education, and State; as well as more obscure, independent ones like the Administrative Conference of the United States.
At agency after agency, we found spending outstripped growth of the staff and even inflation – often many times over.
THE FINAL BATCH
This week’s batch of agencies revealed more of the same problematic trend and the reason DOGE is needed – sure, headcounts may be flat or growing modestly, but spending continues to soar much further and faster than even inflation. In multiple instances, upticks in spending since 2021 also appear to comport with key priorities of the Biden administration.
Click here to view the full list of agencies we’ve assessed. And keep reading for one last set of remarkable examples.
The list now includes every Cabinet agency – this week we’ve added the Departments of Housing & Urban Development, Agriculture (USDA), Treasury and Veterans’ Affairs – as well as the Executive Office of the President. Newly added independent agencies include National Foundation on the Arts and Humanities, Council on Environmental Quality and the Social Security Administration.
BY THE NUMBERS
Department of Agriculture
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) is a perfect example of the staff vs. spending pattern. Since 2000, employee counts shrank from 106,715 to 92,072 in 2024. But annual spending skyrocketed in the same period: in 2000, it was $75.07 billion; by 2024, $254.78 billion – 339% higher.
National Foundation the Arts and Humanities
This agency includes the National Endowment for the Arts, National Endowment for the Humanities and the Institute for Museum and Library Sciences.
Headcount has bounced back and forth between 416 and 455 since 2000, settling at 455 in 2024. But outlays have predictably soared, particularly during the Biden administration. In 2000, NEAH was spending $406 million annually; by 2024, it was spending $998 million, more than double.
Previously Open the Books reported on off-the-wall podcasts that were funded using grants from these endowments. Just a few of many examples:
Subtitle ($227,420 from the National Endowment of the Humanities), about linguistics, has an episode called “the little pronoun that could” about a new gender-neutral pronoun being introduced in Swedish.
Sacred & Profane ($199,663 from the National Endowment of the Humanities), about American religious life, has an episode on how “Satanists play an important role in American religious and political life, showing us how ideas about religion, pluralism, and the separation of church and state are changing in the U.S.”
CalArts Center for New Performance Podcast ($20,000 from the National Endowment for the Arts), about new artistic works from UCLA, has an episode on “the specter of Emmett Till’s murder to create a nightmarish reverie on white violence and silence in America.”
Artists and Hackers ($10,000 from the National Endowment for the Arts), about the intersection of art and technology, has episodes on “Erotic Ecologies and the Fluid Relationships Between Humans and AI,” and an “AI chatbot experiment trained on erotic literature, feminist and queer theory, and an ethics of embodiment.”
The Department of Veterans’ Affairs is a somewhat unique example. Its employee ranks have understandably grown significantly since 2000, as the United States engaged in multiple kinetic wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. In 2000, there were 219,415 employees; by 2024 there were 486,522 employees. The VA had more than double its employee headcount. Over the same period, though, spending grew from $47.04 billion to $345.98 billion. Annual spending had grown 735.5% higher.
Again, in the context of war injuries this may be completely explicable. But the VA continues to report funding shortfalls that could interrupt benefits payments to veterans in need. Congress approved an additional $3 billion in September, before the VA found it had $5 billion to carry over from the prior fiscal year which could have covered the issue. They further predicted a need for $12 billion more taxpayer dollars to be made whole for 2025.
As reported by the Military Times, the confusion and worry has sparked criticism over VA bookkeeping and promises of closer oversight in the future.
“VA’s inability to accurately forecast its budget needs is unacceptable,” said Rep. John Carter, R-Texas, chairman of the Military Construction and Veterans Affairs Subcommittee, part of the House Appropriations Committee.
According to the Times, “He blasted senior leaders for stoking ‘fear that benefits and pensions would be interrupted’ and demanded better transparency in future budget requests.”
By December, the $12 billion request had also been revised, leading Rep. Derrick Van Orden to criticize the VA for “fearmongering statements.”
There were also troubling reports that the Biden administration had mismanaged taxpayer dollars by having some migrant medical care bills processed through the VA’s Financial Service Center for reimbursement. In effect, staff and resources were being diverted from an already-strapped VA to those in detention by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).
“The Department of Veterans Affairs is not a tool to be wielded for political benefit, but a mechanism to protect and care for the brave servicemembers of this great nation,” Sen. Joni Ernst and her colleagues said in an August 2024 letter to then-Secretary Denis McDonough.
Ernst, who has established herself as an advocate for veterans getting the care and benefits they’re owed, introduced legislation on the shortfall in September. The Protecting Regular Order (PRO) for Veterans Act would create a three-year requirement for the VA to “submit quarterly, in-person budget reports to Congress. Additional financial shortfalls would result in withholding bonuses for senior VA and Office of Management and Budget (OMB) personnel.”
DOGE should examine VA bookeeping and operations, identifying efficiencies that ensure veterans get what they’re owed amid unprecedented use of benefits and medical appointments.
Council on Environmental Quality
This advisory council is part of the Executive Office of the President and has consistently maintained a tiny presence on the White House campus. From 2000 through 2020, there were between 1 and 3 members each year. But during the Biden administration, the number immediately started to go higher: 4 in 2022, 9 in 2023, and 17 in 2024. That’s more than five times as many staff in relatively short order.
Spending also jumped after having been on a steady downward trajectory. In 2000, CEQ spent $22M; in 2020 it had fallen to $12 million. But by 2023 it had exploded to $45 million – and then $51 million in 2024! Since 2000, annual spending had more than doubled. But since 2020, it has more than quadrupled!
This may be reflective of the Biden administration’s focus on “environmental justice” and “Green New Deal” style policy proposals, which received enormous funding for grantmaking through the Environmental Protection Agency via the Infrastructure Bill and the so-called Inflation Reduction Act.
The Council on Environmental Quality advises the president on environmental policy issues both nationally and internationally, and prepares on annual report on environmental quality to Congress. It was created as part of the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) of 1969.
CONCLUSION
Time after time, at agency after agency, we see spending skyrocketing since 2000, even when headcounts grew modestly and stayed flat. In this most recent batch of examples, we also saw Biden administration spending priorities reveal themselves through the outlays at key agencies. In particular, the VA faces increasing scrutiny for its delivery of care and benefits that won’t go away as spending and staff grow to unprecedented levels.
In the case of the National Foundation of the Arts and Humanities, it may already be in the crosshairs of DOGE. President Trump signed an executive order to slash the Institute for Museum and Library Services; he placed restrictions on grants related to “gender ideology” from the National Endowment for the Arts; and National Endowment for Humanities Chair Shelly Lowe left the fund “at the Direction of President Trump,” according to a press release.
Even as Open the Books has documented over 200 federal agencies by headcount and annual outlays – with great historical context – there’s still more to be uncovered.
The Federal Register lists 441 agencies, of which we found at least 75 were defunct. On top of that, there are a number of funded-only agencies. That means that although there are no federal employees at those entities, they operate using taxpayer dollars, so we still collectively pay for their activities.
This is yet another category of spending to tackle in future reports and for DOGE to scrutinize as it goes about its project of restoring efficient, effective government for taxpayers.
German agricultural and pharmaceutical giant Bayer fell in European trading after a Georgia jury ordered Monsanto’s parent company to pay $2.1 billion in damages to a man who claimed the company’s Roundup weed killer caused his cancer.
Late Friday, the State Court of Cobb County, Georgia, reached a verdict in favor of the plaintiff, John Barnes, who filed a lawsuit against Monsanto in 2021, seeking damages related to his non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma.
“It’s been a long road for him … and he was happy that the truth related to the product (has) been exposed,” Barnes’ attorney Kyle Findley stated, adding the verdict is an “important milestone” after “another example of Monsanto’s refusal to accept responsibility for poisoning people with this toxic product.”
Bayer acquired Monsanto in 2018 and has since been battered with dispute claims that Roundup’s key ingredient, glyphosate, causes cancer. The German company has set aside over $16 billion to settle the lawsuits.
Bayer responded to the penalties awarded that include $65 million in compensatory damages and $2 billion in punitive damages for the plaintiff:
We disagree with the jury’s verdict, as it conflicts with the overwhelming weight of scientific evidence and the consensus of regulatory bodies and their scientific assessments worldwide.
We believe that we have strong arguments on appeal to get this verdict overturned and the excessive and unconstitutional damage awards eliminated or reduced.
Earlier, Goldman’s James Quigley, Rajan Sharma, and others noted that this is the first case in Georgia, “typically awards are reduced on appeal.”
Here’s more from the analysts:
Late on Friday night (post EU market close), a jury ruled against Bayer in the Barnes Roundup case, leading to an award of $2.065bn (being $2bn punitive damages and $65m compensatory damages – see here). While each case is different, and this is the first case in Georgia (see Exhibit 1), typically awards are reduced on appeal. Bayer intends to appeal the judgment. As a reminder, at the end of 2024, the provision related to glyphosate related litigation was $5.9bn.
Bayer has been engaging with policymakers around the force of labeling regulations in the US (see here). Recently, in Georgia, both the state House and Senate approved SB 144 which ensures that any pesticide registered with the US EPA and sold under a label consistent with EPA standards, is sufficient to satisfy state label warning requirements. Bayer believes that this should prevent such state based claims from moving forward in court.
In addition, we also note that Bayer was recently granted an extension on the filing of the Johnson case with the US Supreme Court until April 18, 2025 (see here). As discussed in our 2025 outlook note for Bayer (see here), we continue to see positive risk/ reward into a potential Supreme Court filing/ acceptance by mid-25, with a final outcome expected by the end of the 2025/26 Supreme Court session.
Bayer glyphosate trial record
Quigley has a “neutral” rating on Bayer shares in Germany with a 28 euro 12mo price target:
Valuation: Our DCF is €30 per share which assumes a 10.8% WACC and TV growth rate of 1.5%, while our multiple based valuation is €28 per share, leading to our 12-month target price of €29 per share. Our target price suggests Bayer trades on c.6x 2026E P/E, with a 2026-29E PEG of around 1.0x which is below the sector average, but we think this is justified given uncertainty around the pipeline and the litigation overhang. We are Neutral rated.
Upside/downside risks:
Litigation outcomes (SCOTUS – glyphosate, Washington Supreme Court – PCB).
Success of clinical development pipeline and its ability to offset patent expirations.
High soft commodity price environment leading to sustained pricing power in the Crop Science division.
Slower-than-anticipated realisation of the cost and operational benefits form the new DSO operating model.
Bayer’s shares are down about 5% in European trading. Zooming out, shares are trading at 2004 lows….
Michael Saylor’s Strategy has acquired over $500 million worth of Bitcoin as institutional interest and exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows make a comeback.
Strategy acquired 6,911 Bitcoin for over $584 million between March 17 and March 23 at an average price of $84,529 per coin, according to a March 24 filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Following the latest acquisition, the company now holds more than 500,000 Bitcoin, with a total of 506,137 Bitcoin acquired at an aggregate purchase price of roughly $33.7 billion and an average purchase price of approximately $66,608 per Bitcoin, inclusive of fees and expenses.
The preferred stock was sold at $85 per share and featured a 10% coupon. According to Strategy, the offering should bring the company approximately $711 million in revenue scheduled to settle on March 25, 2025.
Saylor’s Strategy buys the dip despite global tariff concerns
Strategy, the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder, continues buying the dips despite widespread investor fears of a premature bear market.
Strategy’s latest investment comes amid global trade war fears, which analysts say could weigh on both traditional and digital asset markets at least through early April.
Despite a multitude of positive crypto-specific developments, global tariff fears will continue to pressure the markets until at least April 2, according to Nicolai Sondergaard, a research analyst at Nansen.
“I’m looking forward to seeing what happens with the tariffs from April 2nd onward. Maybe we’ll see some of them dropped, but it depends if all countries can agree. That’s the biggest driver at this moment,” the analyst said during Cointelegraph’s Chainreaction daily X show on March 21.
Risk assets may lack direction until the tariff-related concerns are resolved, which may happen between April 2 and July, presenting a positive market catalyst, he added.
US President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariff rates are set to take effect on April 2 despite earlier comments from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicating a possible delay in their implementation.
Democracy dies in darkness… or so the Trump-era Washington Post would have us believe. That’s a nice-sounding sentiment (and one that should have applied to the paper and its reporting long before Donald Trump arrived in the White House), but it’s also trite and naïve. It is far closer to the truth to say that democracy dies out in the open, in the daylight, right in front of our faces, and with the approval of most of the people working at The Washington Post. In reality, democracy dies in the courtrooms and judges’ quarters of our nation.
As the Trump Administration is thwarted in its efforts to cut federal spending, bloat, and waste time and again by activist judges, the people of the country must understand what is going on and what it likely says about the nation’s future. These judges—most of whom were appointed by Democratic presidents Clinton, Obama, and Biden—have taken it upon themselves to make policy and to engage in political maneuvering to spare the political status quo the fate for which the American people voted last November.
Unironically and unapologetically, they are undoing the will of demos, purportedly to save democracy.
Interestingly, the Democrats who cheer the activist judges and their rulings are open and unremorseful about their overt injection of politics into the system of judicial review. Chuck Schumer, the Senate Minority Leader, crowed to PBS “Newshour” this week that he and his fellow Democrats are responsible for “saving democracy” because they intentionally packed the courts with judges that shared their ideology and would be unafraid to apply it to any case involving President Trump. “We did put 235 judges, 235 progressive judges, judges not under the control of Trump, last year on the bench, and they are ruling against Trump time after time after time.”
As justification for their use of the courts to stymie the will of the democratically elected administration, the Democrats (naturally) cite Marbury v. Madison, in which every schoolboy (and girl) used to be taught strengthened the concept of judicial review and established the courts as a proper constitutional check on the executive and legislative branches. The catch here is that Marbury v. Madison was decided on procedural, constitutional grounds, thereby intentionally sidestepping the contentious politics of the case. More to the point, the ruling purposefully constrained the ability of elected officials to use the courts as vehicles for their political gambits, even as it also reined in the Supreme Court itself, arguing that its actions in defense of politically stacking the judiciary were unconstitutional.
Rather than relying on the words of Chief Justice John Marshall, the Democrats and all those who cheer their judicial strategy would do far better to read the words and heed the warnings of Carl Schmitt, the brilliant and rightly famous Weimar-era German jurist who became a rightly infamous Nazi-era German jurist, the “crown jurist” of the Third Reich.
I have written a great deal about Schmitt over the last several years—including in these pages—largely because he was among the most prescient of the West’s philosophers of the early Twentieth century. Long before he became a Nazi, Schmitt warned about the tendency of liberal democracy to make everything, every question or concern about contemporary life into a political matter. Schmitt observed that in traditional European societies (and America as well), the state had only to deal with matters such as land, trade, finances, and family ties. Enemies of the social order were generally recognized by everyone as evil and were handled by communal agreement on what was commonly understood to be what was right, or moral, or in line with universally recognized truths. In the liberal democratic state, by contrast, everything had become political and subject to dispute, which led to continuous controversies and turmoil surrounding all aspects of social life.
Schmitt most fully articulated his theories on the politicization of everything and the subsequent creation of “the total state” in his 1932 classic The Concept of the Political. Even before this, however, Schmitt identified universal politicization—and politicization of the judiciary, in particular—as the preeminent threat to democratic polities. Schmitt fervently disdained the idea that the judiciary could or should behave in a political manner or pursue political ends. Doing so, he argued, would corrupt the judiciary beyond repair and, in the end, destroy democracy completely. Schmitt rejected out of hand the very notion that the courts could create or enforce political positions that were ultimately unreviewable and unamendable by the people and their elected representatives. Such a doctrine would, he argued, render the people powerless.
Schmitt argued that judicial decisions must be made in deference to the “principle of legal determination,” which is to say that they must be made in accordance with the law as written, disregarding the moral or political intentions of its authors. Political and moral calculations are not roles of the judiciary.
For Schmitt, a legal decision was correct if “it can be assumed that another judge would have decided in the same way.” Note, he doesn’t say “another judge appointed by the same president” or “another progressive judge.” He is explicit in arguing that judges’ political sentiments should not play a role in their decisions. If they do, then they are, in the narrow sense, invalid rulings and, in the broader sense, a key cog in the creation of the total state.
As for why anyone should pay attention to Carl Schmitt, given his eventual lapse into totalitarian madness, two reasons stand out among the rest.
First, as I noted above, he was prescient. His observations about politicization and the rise of the total state have been eerily accurate. He saw the flaws in post-Enlightenment liberal democracy which few others did.
Second, as I note in The Dictatorship of Woke Capital, Schmitt was “what one might call a ‘case in point.” Schmitt predicted the fate of man in the total state, and then he lived it. “Carl Schmitt was a living, breathing oxymoron. He grew frustrated with and tired of trying to rationalize the inefficiencies and ineffectiveness of the Weimar Republic, and so he chose to pledge his allegiance to those who would restore order.”
The erosion of the apolitical judiciary has been underway for some time—better than half a century. For most of those last fifty years, however, judges at least felt the need to fake it, to justify their decisions in constitutional, apolitical terms. That’s not necessarily the case today. Judges are openly thwarting their political opponents based on politics alone, and they’re doing so to the cheers of elected officials and others who somehow still have the gall to call themselves “defenders of democracy.” They are, of course, nothing of the sort. They are quite the opposite, in fact.
Services PMI Soars In March, Manufacturing Tumbles Into Contraction As Inflation Fears Rise
The morning started off on the bright side with stocks higher (Trump de-escalating tariffs), and then The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) surged +0.18 in February (dramatically better than the -0.17 decline expected). This surge was driven by a big move in ‘Production and Income’…
47 of the 85 monthly individual indicators made positive contributions, while 38 indicators affected the index negatively.
But all eyes were on S&P Global’s preliminary March data for any signs of a rebound after December and January’s plunge in Services.
The good news is that there was a bounce in Services from 51.0 to 54.3 (well above the 51.0 exp) – the 26th consecutive month above 50.
The bad news is that there was a sudden plunge in Manufacturing PMI into contraction (from 52.7 to 49.8 – below 50)…
“A welcome upturn in service sector activity in March has helped propel stronger economic growth at the end of the first quarter. However, the survey data are indicative of the economy growing at an annualized 1.9% rate in March and just 1.5% over the quarter as a whole, pointing to a slowing of GDP growth compared to the end of 2024.
A little different from the 2% plus contraction in the economy that The Atlanta Fed model believes.
“Near-term risks also seem tilted to the downside. Growth is concentrated in the service sector as manufacturing fell back into decline after the frontrunning of tariffs had temporarily boosted factory output in the first two months of the year. Similarly, some of the March upturn in services was reportedly due to business picking up after adverse weather conditions had dampened activity across many states in January and February, which could prove a temporary bounce.
“Business confidence in the outlook has also darkened, souring further from the buoyant mood seen at the start of the year to one of the gloomiest readings seen over the past three years, largely caused by growing worries over negative impacts from recent policy initiatives from the new administration. Most widely cited were concerns about the impact of Federal spending cuts and tariffs.
“A key concern over tariffs is the impact on inflation, with the March survey indicating a further sharp rise in costs as suppliers pass tariff-related price hikes on to US companies. Firms’ costs are now rising at the steepest rate for nearly two years, with factories increasingly passing these higher costs onto customers. Thankfully, from the Federal Reserve’s perspective, services inflation remains relatively subdued, but this reflects the need to keep prices low amid weak demand, which will harm profits.”
For now, the market is watching the surge in Services (bond yields up) and ignoring the Manufacturing side of the economy./p>
Key Events This Week: Tariff Talk, Core PCE, Confidence And Global PMIs
It is the last full week before the April 2nd US tariff announcement, so expect lots of headlines on this. Indeed US equity futures are higher this morning on Friday’s Bloomberg story that tariffs will be more targeted than the worst fears. Outside of trade, DB’s Jim Reid notesthat inflation will take centre stage with the all-important US core PCE on Friday. Before that, UK and Australian inflation are out on Wednesday with flash French and Spanish CPI out on Friday, alongside Tokyo CPI.
In terms of other highlights, today’s global flash PMIs will be interesting. US and Europe bounced last month but since then the tariff rhetoric has aggressively stepped-up, but on the other hand Germany has reversed decades of fiscal conservatism. So, it’ll be interesting to see how the surveys respond to those developments.
Other notable US economic indicators due include the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index tomorrow following a slide in the University of Michigan gauges last week (we have the final reading for this on Friday). Talking of confidence tomorrow sees the latest German IFO so we’ll get another chance to see if the fiscal package has changed the outlook or whether the threat of tariffs dominate. The IFO is only decimals off the recent lows which were only weaker at the height of the GFC and briefly at the start of Covid. Wednesday then sees US Durable Goods and the latest Spring statement from the UK with the fiscal finances precariously balanced given the self-imposed fiscal rules. See our economists’ preview here. Thursday will see the final Q4 US GDP print and latest trade data which will both impact Q1 GDP trackers. The trade data may see an import surge ahead of likely increases in tariffs. Also of note will be the latest Congressional Budget Office Federal debt and statutory limit report as well as the long-term budget outlook (all the way to 2055) on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.
With regards to central banks, highlights include the summary of opinions from the March BoJ meeting on Thursday. In Europe, the ECB will publish its consumer expectations survey on Friday, the same day as Norway’s central bank will decide on rates. In China, highlights include the 1-yr MLF rate fixings tomorrow as well as industrial profits for February on Thursday. Focus will also be on the annual China Development Forum ending today in Beijing. Many CEOs of blue-chip American and European corporates are attending.
The full day-by-day week ahead is at the end as usual but let’s preview the core US PCE on Friday. Personal income (+0.2% vs. +0.9%) and consumption (+0.3% vs. -0.2%) should normalize in opposite directions but the core PCE deflator (+0.37% vs. +0.28%) is likely to edge up and and that should push the YoY rate up a tenth to 2.8%. The recent stronger-than-expected inflation readings have caused DB’s economists to mark up their 2025 inflation forecasts. They now see Q4/Q4 core CPI and core PCE inflation at 3.0% and 2.7%, respectively.
Elsewhere, over the weekend the news flow intensified in Türkiye with key opposition leader, and Istanbul mayor, Ekrem Imamoglu being jailed on corruption charges after being detained by police last week. The fact that he wasn’t charged with terrorism means the news isn’t as extreme as it could have been as such a move would have led to the appointment of a trustee to the Istanbul Municipality, risking more protests and unrest. The Bloomberg TRL equity index fell -17.59% last week and the central bank hiked overnight lending rates by 200bps to 46%. Last night the regulator broadened a short-selling equity ban and relaxed company share buy-back rules to try to help stabilize markets. So one to watch this morning.
Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events
Monday March 24
Data: US, UK, Japan, Germany, France and the Eurozone flash March PMIs, US February Chicago Fed national activity index
Central banks: Fed’s Bostic and Barr speak, BoJ minutes of the January meeting, ECB’s Holzmann speaks, BoE’s Governor Bailey speaks
Earnings: BYD
Tuesday March 25
Data: US March Conference Board consumer confidence index, Richmond Fed manufacturing index, business conditions, Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing activity, January FHFA house price index, February new home sales, China 1-yr MLF rate, Japan February PPI services, Germany March Ifo survey, EU27 February new car registrations
Central banks: Fed’s Williams and Kugler speak, ECB’s Kazimir, Nagel, Holzmann and Vujcic speak
Auctions: US 2-yr Notes ($69bn)
Wednesday March 26
Data: US February durable goods orders, UK February CPI, RPI, January house price index, France March consumer confidence, Australia February CPI
Central banks: Fed’s Musalem and Kashkari speak, ECB’s Villeroy and Cipollone speak, BoC summary of deliberations from the March meeting
Earnings: Dollar Tree, RENK
Auctions: US 2-yr FRN (reopening, $28bn), US 5-yr Notes ($70bn)
Other: US CBO Federal Debt and the Statutory Limit report, UK spring statement
Thursday March 27
Data: US February pending home sales, advance goods trade balance, wholesale inventories, March Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity, initial jobless claims, China February industrial profits, Japan March Tokyo CPI, Eurozone February M3
Central banks: Fed’s Barkin speaks, BoJ’s summary of opinions from the March meeting, ECB’s Guindos, Villeroy, Wunsch, Escriva and Schnabel speak, BoE’s Dhingra speaks, Norges Bank decision
Earnings: H&M, Lululemon
Auctions: US 7-yr Notes ($44bn)
Other: US CBO The Long-Term Budget Outlook: 2025 to 2055
Friday March 28
Data: US February PCE, personal income, personal spending, March Kansas City Fed services activity, UK February retail sales, January trade balance, Q4 current account balance, Germany April GfK consumer confidence, March unemployment claims rate, France March CPI, PPI, February consumer spending, Italy March consumer confidence index, manufacturing confidence, economic sentiment, January industrial sales, February PPI, Eurozone March economic confidence, Canada January GDP
Central banks: Fed’s Barr and Bostic speak, ECB February consumer expectations survey
Finally, looking at just the US, the key economic data releases this week are core PCE inflation and the University of Michigan report on Friday. There are several speaking engagements by Fed officials this week, including an event with Governor Barr on Monday.
Monday, March 24
09:45 AM S&P Global US manufacturing PMI, March preliminary (consensus 51.8, last 52.7); S&P Global US services PMI, March preliminary (consensus 51.2, last 51.0)
01:45 PM Atlanta Fed President Bostic (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will be interviewed on Bloomberg Television.
03:10 PM Fed Governor Barr speaks: Fed Governor Michael Barr will speak in a moderated discussion at an event hosted by the Aspen Institute.
Tuesday, March 25
09:00 AM S&P Case-Shiller 20-city home price index, January (GS +0.6%, consensus +0.4%, +0.5%)
09:00 AM FHFA house price index, January (consensus +0.3%, last +0.4%)
09:05 AM New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President John Williams will give opening remarks at a conference at the New York Fed. Speech text is expected. On March 4, Williams said, “I think the current stance of policy is good. I don’t see any need to change it right away.” He also said, “The US economy is starting in a very good place—unemployment is at 4%, the labor market has stabilized, inflation is 2.5% and has been coming down gradually toward our 2% goal—and we have monetary policy in a very good place.”
10:00 AM New home sales, February (GS +2.2%, consensus +3.5%, last -10.5%)
10:00 AM Conference Board consumer confidence, March (GS 93.0, consensus 93.6, last 98.3)
Wednesday, March 26
08:30 AM Durable goods orders, February preliminary (GS -2.0%, consensus -1.0%, last +3.2%); Durable goods orders ex-transportation, February preliminary (GS -0.2%, consensus +0.2%, last flat); Core capital goods orders, February preliminary (GS -0.2%, consensus flat, last +0.8%); Core capital goods shipments, February preliminary (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.2%, last -0.3%): We estimate that durable goods orders declined 2.0% in the preliminary February report (month-over-month, seasonally adjusted), reflecting a decline in commercial aircraft orders. We forecast a 0.2% decline in core capital goods orders—reflecting sharp declines in the new orders components of manufacturing surveys in February—and a 0.4% increase in core capital goods shipments—reflecting the rise in core orders in recent months.
10:00 AM Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will host a Fed Listens event in Detroit Lakes, Michigan. Q&A is expected.
01:10 PM St. Louis Fed President Musalem (FOMC voter) speaks: St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem will speak on the US economy and monetary policy, followed by a moderated conversation. Speech text is expected. On March 3, Musalem said, “I believe a patient approach now will help us as we seek maximum employment, price stability and a durable economic expansion.”
Thursday, March 27
08:30 AM GDP, Q4 third release (GS +2.3%, consensus +2.4%, last +2.3%); Personal consumption, Q4 third release (GS +4.2%, consensus +4.2%, last +3.7%); Core PCE inflation, Q4 third release (GS +2.65%, consensus +2.7%, last +2.7%): We estimate no revision on net to Q4 GDP growth at +2.3% (quarter-over-quarter annualized), reflecting downward revisions to business and residential fixed investment offset by an upward revision to exports growth.
08:30 AM Advance goods trade balance, February (GS -$140.0bn, consensus -$134.5bn, last -$155.6bn): We estimate that goods trade deficit narrowed by $15.6bn to $140.0bn in the February advance report, reflecting a $10bn decline in gold imports and an $8bn increase in total imports from major Asian trading partners.
08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended March 22 (GS 220k, consensus 225k, last 223k): Continuing jobless claims, week ended March 15 (consensus 1,879k, last 1,892k)
10:00 AM Wholesale inventories, February preliminary (consensus +1.0%, last +0.8%)
10:00 AM Pending home sales, February (GS -2.0%, consensus +1.0%, last -4.6%)
04:30 PM Richmond Fed President Barkin (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin will give a lecture at Washington and Lee University. Speech text and Q&A are expected. On February 25, Barkin said “All this uncertainty argues for caution as we look to wrap up the inflation fight. If headwinds persist, we may well need to use policy to lean against that wind.”
Friday, March 28
08:30 AM Personal income, February (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.9%); Personal spending, February (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.5%, last -0.2%); Core PCE price index, February (GS +0.34%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.2%); Core PCE price index (YoY), February (GS +2.75%, consensus +2.7%, last +2.6%); PCE price index, February (GS +0.30%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.3%); PCE price index (YoY), February (GS +2.50%, consensus +2.5%, last +2.5%): We estimate that personal income and personal spending increased by 0.3% and 0.5%, respectively, in February. We estimate that the core PCE price index rose by 0.34% in February, corresponding to a year-over-year rate of 2.75%. Additionally, we expect that the headline PCE price index increased by 0.3% from the prior month, corresponding to a year-over-year rate of 2.50%. Our forecast is consistent with a 0.20% increase in our trimmed core PCE measure (vs. 0.18% in January).
10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment, March preliminary (GS 57.9, consensus 57.9, last 57.9): University of Michigan 5-10-year inflation expectations, March preliminary (GS 3.8%, last 3.9%)
03:30 PM Atlanta Fed President Bostic (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will moderate a panel on US housing finance policy at an event at the Atlanta Fed.
23andMe Files For Bankruptcy, CEO Resigns – Fate Of Americans’ DNA Data Now In Court-Supervised Sale
Shares of 23andMe crashed in premarket trading on Monday after the genetic testing unicorn startup filed for bankruptcy in the US Bankruptcy Court for the Eastern District of Missouri, following a slide in demand for its ancestry kits and a data breach. The bankruptcy raises one alarming question about DNA security: What will happen to the genetic data of the company’s more than 15 million customers?
23andMe announced that its CEO, Anne Wojcicki, has resigned immediately and will remain on the company’s board of directors. She led the cash-burning startup that never turned a profit and once commanded a market capitalization of nearly $6 billion in late 2021. Shares plunged 44% in the premarket to $1.
“After a thorough evaluation of strategic alternatives, we have determined that a court-supervised sale process is the best path forward to maximize the value of the business,” Mark Jensen, Chair and member of the Special Committee of the Board of Directors wrote in a statement.
Jensen said, “We expect the court-supervised process will advance our efforts to address the operational and financial challenges we face, including further cost reductions and the resolution of legal and leasehold liabilities. We believe in the value of our people and our assets and hope that this process allows our mission of helping people access, understand and benefit from the human genome to live on for the benefit of customers and patients.”
“We want to thank our employees for their dedication to 23andMe’s mission. We are committed to supporting them as we move through the process. In addition, we are committed to continuing to safeguard customer data and being transparent about the management of user data going forward, and data privacy will be an important consideration in any potential transaction,” he added.
In mid-November, 23andMe laid off about 40% of its employees as part of cost-reduction measures, a decision taken amid sliding revenues.
We previously cited a healthcare investor named Will Manidis, who warned:
“The inevitable fire sale of this mess to an overseas PE firm is going to be a national security matter on the scale of which we haven’t seen in healthcare in years.”
“Inevitable Fire Sale” Of 23andMe To “Overseas PE Firm” Could Be National Security Risk https://t.co/W2usXGk9nz
Waltz Reveals Topics Of US-Russia Meeting As It Kicks Off In Riyadh
Trump’s national security adviser Mike Walz has previewed what will be a main topic of discussion for Monday’s next round of talks with Russia in Saudi Arabia. At this point the talks between the US and Ukrainian delegations have concluded (as of Sunday night), and up next is the separate meeting with the Russians, which has begun Monday.
“We’re moving closer and we’re closer to peace than we ever have been,” Walz told CBS’ Face the Nation. “And now we have technical teams, actually, with Ukrainians and Russians at the same facility, conducting proximity talks.”
That’s when he revealed a major new focus of negotiations for the Monday talks. “We now going to talk about a Black Sea maritime ceasefire so that both sides can move grain fuel and start conducting trade again in the Black Sea,” Walz described.
Reaching a lasting ceasefire deal would allow both warring countries to “move grain, fuel, and start conducting trade” in the sea again, he said.
Also high on the agenda will be discussions of the front line, the issue of territories, and the achievement and maintenance of sustainable peace. “We’ll talk the line of control… details of verification mechanisms, peace keeping, you know, freezing the lines where they are,” Walz noted.
The issue of “broader and permanent peace” and “security guarantees” are also on the table as the diplomatic engagements proceed.
As the talks in Riyadh have reportedly begun Monday, the Russian ruble has continued to strengthen on to the expectation of a peace deal, by 09:30 GMT gaining over 1% against the US dollar in the over-the-counter market.
Meanwhile, Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky has condemned the continued aerial attacks on Ukraine. Overnight Ukraine’s military says it shot down nearly 60 inbound Russian drones. Both sides say they’ve agreed to a US-brokered pause on attacks against energy infrastructure – both other attacks have persisted.
Zelensky called on allies put more pressure on Russia “to stop this terror”. He said in a fresh televised statement that “since March 11, a proposal for an unconditional ceasefire has been on the table, and these attacks could have already stopped. But it is Russia that continues all this.”
“Our team is working in a fully constructive manner, and the discussion is quite useful. The work of the delegations continues,” Zelensky said in reference to the Sunday Riyadh meeting with the US delegation.
“But no matter what we’re discussing with our partners right now, Putin must be pushed to issue a real order to stop the strikes, because the one who brought this war must be the one to take it back,” he added.
* * *
Al Jazeera has the following brief backgrounder on the national security officials leading the Russian delegation for Monday’s meeting with the US in Riyadh:
Sergei Beseda
The 70-year-old is an adviser to FSB chief Alexander Bortnikov.
From 2009 to last year, he was heading the FSB’s 5th service, which runs agents in former Soviet countries. Some experts believe he was closely involved in intelligence preparations for Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
According to Reuters, Beseda’s position appeared precarious after Ukraine fought back much more strongly than expected and Russia’s initial assault on Kyiv was beaten back, but he remained in his post.
Ex-US Ambassador John Sullivan wrote in his memoir that Beseda also took part in negotiations with the US in 2021 on exchanging prisoners held in each other’s prisons.
Grigory Karasin
The 75-year-old is a former long-serving diplomat whose past posts include deputy foreign minister and ambassador to the UK.
He is now a member of the Federation Council, the upper house of Russia’s parliament, and chairs its international affairs committee.
Both he and Beseda have been placed under Western sanctions.
* * *
Below are more developing Monday geopolitical headlines via Newsquawk:
Middle East
“Israeli Channel 12 on government sources: The military operation will be expanded and what we have done so far has not pushed Hamas to any understandings towards reaching a deal”, according to Al Jazeera.
AP said Egypt has put forward a new proposal to try to put the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas back on track.
“There are positive indications about a new Egyptian proposal in the negotiations, but the gaps are still large”, according to Israel’s N12.
Israeli PM Netanyahu spoke with US Secretary of State Rubio and discussed regional developments including the release of hostages and resumption of fighting in Gaza.
Israel’s military said a projectile was launched from Yemen towards Israel which was intercepted and it conducted strikes on Rafah and Khan Younis, while Israel’s military also said the division that operated in Lebanon is preparing for Gaza activity.
Israel conducted an air strike which killed Hamas political leader Salah Al-Bardaweel in the southern Gaza Strip and targeted the surgery department at Gaza’s Nasser Hospital which killed Hamas political bureau member Ismail Baarhoum.
US peacekeepers said an escalation of the volatile situation at the Lebanon-Israel border could have serious consequences for the region, while it was reported that Israeli PM Netanyahu ordered strikes against dozens of targets in Lebanon in response to rocket fire although Hezbollah denied any link to rocket launches from southern Lebanon on Saturday.
White House National Security Adviser Waltz said the US took out key Houthi leadership during strikes in Yemen, as well as weapons factories and some drone facilities, while he added that the US is seeking full dismantlement of the Iranian nuclear program in a way the entire world can see.
US envoy Witkoff said Hamas is the aggressor here and had every opportunity to demilitarise and accept the bridging proposal but they elected not to. Witkoff also stated that their signal to Iran is let’s sit down and see if we can get to the right place through diplomacy, while he added that Iran cannot have a nuclear bomb which cannot and will not happen.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Araqchi said talks with the US are impossible unless Washington changes its pressure policy.
Iranian Foreign Ministry warned of the repercussions of the new Israeli escalation against Lebanon, according to Sky News Arabia.
Ukraine
Negotiations between the delegations of the Russian Federation and the US last about two hours; “the parties do not plan to complete the meeting in the near future”, according to TASS.
Russia’s Kremlin said Saudi Arabia negotiations are underway on technical issues, there are many different aspects related to a settlement in Ukraine that need to be worked out. The Black Sea initiative is on the agenda in these talks. There is a common understanding with the US on the willingness to move towards a settlement
Russia’s Defence Ministry says Ukraine attempted to attack an oil pumping station in Russia’s Krasnodar region, according to IFAX; the station is out of operation for repairs.
Russia’s Kremlin, on energy strike moratorium, said they are monitoring the situation after attacks by Ukraine.
Ukraine and US delegations began talks in Saudi Arabia, while Ukrainian President Zelensky said the Ukrainian delegation is working in a completely constructive way and the conversation is quite useful. There were also comments from the Ukrainian Defence Minister that the agenda for talks included proposals to protect energy facilities and critical infrastructure.
White House National Security Adviser Waltz said the US is talking through a number of confidence-building measures to end the Russia-Ukraine war including the future of Ukrainian children taken into Russia.
US envoy Witkoff said the US expects a lot more progress on the Russia-Ukraine conflict and that Russian President Putin does not want to take all of Europe with the situation much more different than WW2.
White House is aiming for a Russia-Ukraine truce agreement by April 20th, according to Bloomberg.
Russia’s Kremlin said the Putin-Trump call was a step towards a face-to-face meeting and talks in Saudi Arabia will be as well. It was also reported that the Russian Defence Ministry said Russian forces took control of Sribne in eastern Ukraine, according to IFAX.
Other
South Korea’s Foreign Minister said sanctions against North Korea must be carried out faithfully and that North Korea should not be rewarded for its wrongdoing in the course of the war in Ukraine.
Venezuela’s government said it will resume repatriation flights of migrants from the US beginning on March 23rd.
