California lawmakers on the Public Safety Committee advanced a bill that would crack down on child sex trafficking – but only after language was removed that would have made it a felony to purchase 16 and 17-year-olds.

Assemblymembers Mia Monta (D) and LaShae Sharp Collins (D) abstained from the vote.

Assembly Bill 379, introduced by Assemblymember Maggy Krell (D), targets buyers of commercial sex. Krell previously worked at the California DOJ, where she became known for prosecuting the operators of Backpage.com – which was shut down in 2018 for facilitating sex trafficking and prostitution.

The bill is opposed by Assemblymember Mark Gonzalez (D-Los Angeles), who says the bill would disproportionately impact communities of color.

Democratic Assemblyman is concerned that this bill addressing human/sex trafficking (and was supposed to make it a felony to solicit 16 and 17 years old) will disproportionately affect black and brown communities and LGBTQI+ community. pic.twitter.com/rDPO4GeMw9

— California Republican Party (@CAGOP) April 29, 2025

So, it’s racist to crack down on child sex trafficking. Got it.

The bill, introduced in February, includes provisions to create a misdemeanor for loitering with the intent to solicit commercial sex – and imposes fines as high as $25,000 for soliciting minors under the age of 16. It also allows felony human trafficking charges for repeat offenders who buy sex from minors.

It also would create a first-of-its-kind Survivor Support Fund – which would go to community-based organizations led by survivors of human trafficking.

As the Epoch Times notes further, while introducing the bill to the committee, Krell said it would support victims and give law enforcement better tools to prosecute the buyers.

“Demand is the buyers,” she said. “It is the rows of cars of men lined up on street corners to buy teenagers for sex,” she said. “Without the buyers, we don’t really have sex trafficking.”

The bill drew support from the California District Attorneys Association, the California Police Chief Association, the San Bernardino County Sheriff’s Department, the City of Stockton, the Association for L.A. Deputy Sheriffs, the League of County Board of Supervisors, and more.

The bill also reinstates penalties for offenses that were decriminalized by a 2022 California law, such as loitering with the intent to purchase a victim. Those convicted would face a misdemeanor and pay up to a $1,000 fine that would go toward the fund for survivors.

Opponents, including survivors of child trafficking, focused on this aspect of the law in their testimony.

Jess Torres, a child trafficking survivor and director of programs at Rising International, respectfully opposed the bill, saying it hinges on a vaguely defined suspicion of intent to do something criminal, rather than evidence.

“This bill will only escalate violence against survivors because persons who are trafficked in commercial sex are harmed when they operate in a criminalized environment,” Torres said. “When buyers believe they are taking on greater risk, they often become more demanding, and that pressure frequently becomes compromising.”

Leela Chapelle of the Coalition to Abolish Slavery and Trafficking also opposed the bill, arguing that loitering with intent laws harm communities they claim to protect and are unconstitutional.

“We do believe that this will cause the same issues that we have seen over and over again, that we spend our resources clearing the criminal records of survivors, that should not have happened in the first place—these criminal records that prevent them from lives of stability,” Chapelle said.

Opposition also included the LA Public Defenders Union and the San Francisco Public Defender’s Office.

The bill is now due to advance on to the Assembly Appropriations Committee before it can advance to a full vote on the Assembly floor and the Senate.

FBI agents who were assigned to protect national monuments from vandalism by protesters during the BLM riots instead chose to “take a knee” in a sign of solidarity (or submission) when confronted by the mob in Washington DC on June 4th, 2020.  The establishment media widely circulated a photo of the incident, creating a national controversy.

The event followed a series of prostrations by Democrat officials and leftists designed to appease rioters while also giving credence to the false claims of “systemic racism” in America.  

Times have changed drastically in five years and in 2025 this brand of woke worship is highly frowned upon by the majority of the public.  Donald Trump’s return to the White House has driven home the clear message that social justice ideology is dead.  This is why it is unlikely that there will be much uproar over the recent demotion of several of the FBI agents involved in the famous “bend the knee” photo, though the media is unsurprisingly outraged. 

The Federal Bureau of Investigation has reassigned several agents who were photographed kneeling with demonstrators.  The reassignments, viewed as demotions by many inside the FBI, come nearly five years after the episode that ignited divisions inside the bureau. FBI officials offered no explanation for changing the roles to less coveted positions for the agents.

There has been extensive cleaning of house undertaken by the Trump Administration in the months after his election.  Trump perhaps learned a valuable lesson during his first term, in which many officials and employees within the federal government actively attempted to sabotage his presidency.  The lesson?  That government cannot function when ideological cultists run the bureaucracy from behind the scenes.  The FBI agents in question are likely being punished as a message to the rest of the Bureau that far-left guerrilla tactics will not be tolerated.

BLM protests were sparked in the name of George Floyd; a career criminal and drug addict who suffered from heart disease that died while resisting arrest by officers over counterfeit money.  Officer Derek Chauvin was subsequently convicted of murdering Floyd while restraining him.  Many Americans still feel that Chauvin was a political sacrifice to appease the leftist mob and that he is in fact innocent.

As we now know, extensive funding from NGO’s and even government agencies like USAID flowed into the coffers of BLM related groups.  This cash helped to energize the astroturf activism that made the movement appear much larger than it actually was.  The BLM protests were also allowed incredible latitude to ignore pandemic mandates while millions of Americans were stuck at home and told to isolate from friends and family using “social distancing”.

Police departments were also pressured by city Democrat city officials to do little or nothing to intervene in the riots, and many officers also “took a knee” as a symbol of fealty to the activists.  The movement was given every advantage and operated with impunity.

The US as a country is still in precarious recovery from the damage done by the attempted progressive coup.  Witnessing some of the agencies and agents involved getting shut down or punished may help in the healing process.

Huge wildfires have been raging near Jerusalem on Wednesday, forcing communities to mass evacuate and resulting in the cancelation of Israel’s “Ha’atzmaut” Independence Day events.

The defense minister has called the still-raging fires a “time of national emergency” as high winds have made the blaze nearly impossible to fight effectively, and as major roads have been closed, including Route 1, which connects Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. The typically dry conditions also aren’t helping.

“This is perhaps the largest fire ever in the country,” Jerusalem District Fire Department Commander Shmulik Friedman told a Wednesday afternoon press briefing, while saying that winds expected to exceed 60mph are expected “in the near future” – which could make things worse.

At least ten communities in the area near the fire have been evacuated, and photos have shown flames encroaching on military areas and tank formations.

Israeli media has reported that a Palestinian man has been apprehended and is being questioned as an arson suspect, after fleeing from police and being caught with fire-starting items on him:

An arson suspect was arrested Wednesday, as authorities were probing whether major brush fires west of Jerusalem were started intentionally and as calls appeared on Palestinian social media to start more blazes. However, authorities said Wednesday evening it was too early to determine the cause of the fires.

A 50-year-old resident of East Jerusalem’s Umm Tuba neighborhood was arrested on suspicion of attempting to set fire to vegetation in southern Jerusalem, police said.

⚡️🔥 Israeli media says: Today’s fires are the largest in “Israel’s history.”

The occupation forces evacuated five settlements and closed the highway between Jerusalem and Tel Aviv. (Qudsn) pic.twitter.com/uCWyVtoRGc

— MenchOsint (@MenchOsint) April 30, 2025

At this point the precise cause of the fire hasn’t been substantiated, but Israeli media is pointing to threatening online messages like the following:

One message on the Palestinian channel Shehab, which is affiliated with Hamas, said: “There are popular calls to set fire to forests near the settlements.” Hamas considers all Jewish communities in Israel and the West Bank, both within and beyond the Green Line, to be settlements.

Another message circulated on X across several accounts stated: “Your role is to set fire to gardens, vehicles and everything around the settlements.”

However, other theories abound…

BREAKING 🚨 Israel fire set by Israeli settlers trying to burn down Palestinian olive groves. pic.twitter.com/di5zcIM3uE

— Syrian Girl (@Partisangirl) April 30, 2025

There are locales where the fire is impacting Palestinian communities as well. Israeli media is strongly suggesting this is linked to Hamas and events in Gaza.

According to additional reports:

A map circulating in Israeli security circles depicts the locations of the fires, almost all of which are marked on the Israeli side of the Green Line separating the West Bank from Israel and Gaza—not in the areas inhabited by Palestinians. Hamas posted on social media a call for Palestinians in the West Bank and Israel to “burn whatever you can of groves, forests, and settler homes” and “set their cars ablaze.”

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is meanwhile warning that the fires could soon directly threaten the city of Jerusalem.

He described that “the western wind can push the fire easily towards the outskirts of (Jerusalem) — and even into the city itself”.

A national emergency has been declared in Israel as huge fires rapidly spread across the Jerusalem Hills, a mountainous region near the capital.

According to reports and footage circulating online, the blaze has reached army bases nearby Jerusalem.

Israel has requested… pic.twitter.com/xPjoR58pp0

— Middle East Eye (@MiddleEastEye) April 30, 2025

“We need to bring as many fire engines as possible and create firebreaks well beyond the current fire lines… We are now in a national emergency, not just a local one,” he added in the video statement.

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Employees working in coal mining and firefighter safety who had been slated for termination have been asked to return to work, according to a U.S. senator and a union that represents them.

The workers are employed by the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH), which is part of the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS). 

As part of an HHS overhaul, hundreds of NIOSH employees were placed on administrative leave and set to be fired, union officials say.

Employees who work for the Coal Workers’ Health Surveillance Program and the Fire Fighters’ Fatality Investigation and Prevention Program are being reinstated temporarily, the American Federation of Government Employees Local 3430 said on Wednesday. The reinstatement action “allows these dedicated professionals to return to their critical roles in advancing worker safety and health across the country.”

The exact number of affected workers is unclear.

The workers are still on the list to be fired as part of mass terminations scheduled for June 2, the union said.

Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.), who has been in conversations with Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. about reversing some of the cuts, also said she understood the reinstatements to be temporary.

“I am encouraged that some NIOSH functions for coal miner and firefighter safety are slated to resume with some select staff returning to work this week. But my understanding is that this is temporary, so my focus will continue to be on working with HHS on permanently restoring these functions and personnel in the most efficient and effective manner,” Capito wrote on social media platform X.

HHS did not respond to a request for comment.

Kennedy said on X this week that “Firefighter health and safety programs remain a top priority” and that, as HHS works on streamlining operations, “critical services of NIOSH will remain intact.”

A West Virginia coal miner who sued the government in federal court over the cuts said in a recent filing that HHS cannot carry out programs detailed in federal law, such as a screening program for Black Lung, without the workers who were set to be fired.

The government has not yet responded to the legal action. A judge ordered the government to respond by May 2 and to appear in court on May 7.

Kennedy in March announced that HHS would slash about 10,000 jobs in a bid to make the agency more efficient and effective. After many workers were fired, Kennedy told reporters that some of the layoffs were mistakes and that certain employees were being brought back.

Authored by Ted Galen Carpenter via The Libertarian Institute,

Today, April 30, 2025 marks the fiftieth anniversary of the final, definitive defeat of the U.S. military crusade in Vietnam. The images of U.S. helicopters desperately flying American diplomats and Washington’s high-level South Vietnamese collaborators from the roof of the U.S. embassy in Saigon effectively captured not only the chaotic environment, but also the extent of Washington’s overall policy debacle. The outcome of the war was a humiliating defeat for the United States in every respect. Vietnam’s reunification under a communist government was now an indisputable reality. Indeed, the United States finally succumbed to the pressure to establish diplomatic relations with that government in 1995.

Washington’s failed effort over more than two decades to prevent that outcome was extremely expensive financially to the United States, with more than $141 billion expended. Measured in terms of 2025 dollars, that amount would be approximately $838 billion. Even worse was the terrible cost in blood. The war took the lives of more than 58,000 American soldiers and caused an estimated 3.8 million casualties, both civilian and military, in South Vietnam, North Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia.

Widespread disillusionment about Washington’s armed crusade in Southeast Asia was evident in the United States, and for a few years, the disastrous experience seemed to inoculate the American public against supporting any similar adventures. When Ronald Reagan’s administration flirted with providing military backing for corrupt client regimes in Central America, there was noticeable pushback, especially from Democrats in Congress. “No more Vietnams” became a popular mantra throughout the country.

However, a closer look at public attitudes, especially the views of political elites in both parties, would have suggested that the change in Washington’s overall foreign policy orientation was less substantial than it seemed at first glance. There was little resistance to pro-war adventurism elsewhere in the world, as long as U.S. military personnel were not directly at risk. For example, Washington’s policy of using Islamist rebels in Afghanistan to harass Soviet occupation forces received extensive bipartisan support.

Even direct U.S. military involvement received little push back, as long as an American victory was quick and decisive. That point was confirmed when U.S. forces invaded Grenada in 1983 and promptly ousted a pro-communist regime that had recently seized power. The Reagan administration’s meddling in Lebanon’s civil war, though, showed that there remained an extensive public and elite aversion to American casualties. The loss of 241 Marines in the bombing of the U.S. barracks outside Beirut immediately caused the administration to move the remaining troops to ships off shore, and that step was just a prelude to the departure of all U.S. forces from Lebanon.

Although the bruising experience in Vietnam had apparently induced a somewhat greater level of caution—at least temporarily—among Washington’s political and policy elites with respect to a few specific cases, it had not caused any reconsideration of the foundational assumptions of U.S. foreign policy. In particular, the “1930s model” still dominated elite perceptions about world affairs and America’s proper role in the international system: American opinion leaders were still obsessed with preventing the rise of “another Hitler.” Closely related assumptions were that “appeasement” never works, “aggression” had to be stopped in its tracks as soon as signs of it appeared, and that complex, murky geopolitical struggles could be portrayed as stark conflicts between good and evil. Despite the negative consequences of the Vietnam War, those attitudes remained intact.

The continuing ability of such propaganda to sway public opinion in favor of war became apparent during the Persian Gulf crisis in 1990-1991. The simplistic “good versus evil” narrative was especially tenacious. George H.W. Bush’s administration, with the active assistance of a hawkish news media, succeeded in convincing the American public that not only was Iraq’s Saddam Hussein a monstrously evil ruler, but also that he posed a threat to world order comparable to Hitler’s.

It was a preposterous notion for multiple reasons. First, Washington had viewed Saddam as a valuable client throughout Iraq’s multi-year war of aggression against Iran’s revolutionary government. The Iraqi leader got into trouble with Washington only when he failed to win the fight against Tehran and then had the temerity to seize Kuwait (a longstanding Iraqi territorial claim) without Washington’s permission. Bush administration officials and their media allies exaggerated Iraq’s military capabilities and invented inflammatory atrocity stories to justify a war against Iraq waged by a U.S.-dominated international coalition.

The surprisingly easy victory by coalition forces largely erased the lessons of caution remaining from the Vietnam experience.  Administration officials and other members of Washington’s pro-war elite gloated that America had finally overcome the “Vietnam Syndrome.” When the dissolution of the Soviet Union at the end of 1991 left the United States as the sole remaining global power, that development eliminated the last restraint on U.S. military adventurism.

The painful lessons of the defeat in Vietnam have been largely forgotten, and the current generation of U.S. policymakers is at least as reckless as any of its predecessors. The prevailing approach to international conflicts has a dreary, formulaic aspect: exaggerate the severity of the threat to both international peace and America’s security; portray Washington’s adversary as the epitome of evil; and portray any beleaguered U.S. client as both an innocent victim and a proponent of freedom and democracy. Washington’s dishonest propaganda regarding the war between Russia and Ukraine—both corrupt autocracies—is almost a caricature of that strategy.

🇻🇳 #Vietnam held a military parade to mark 50 years since the fall of Saigon on April 30, 1975, ending the Vietnam War.

🎖️ The event celebrated national unification and the victory of North #Vietnamese forces. pic.twitter.com/sUgab6mvEF

— FRANCE 24 English (@France24_en) April 30, 2025

The litany of Washington’s military interventions and proxy wars since Vietnam—Afghanistan, Lebanon, Grenada, Panama, Kuwait, Somalia, Bosnia, Kosovo, Afghanistan (again), Libya, Syria, Yemen, and most dangerous of all, Ukraine—all convey the extent to which U.S. policy elites and much of the U.S. public have remained impervious to the deeper meaning of the Vietnam debacle. As one cynical observer said to me, “The only enduring lesson from the Vietnam War appears to be ‘don’t go to war in a country called Vietnam.’” Such a pervasive failure of policymakers and the American people to learn more substantial lessons may be that horrible conflict’s most tragic and lasting legacy.

Last week we highlighted the next economic shock; a student loan default wave that could cause a $63 billion hit to GDP.

And here it comes. During Wednesday’s Cabinet meeting, Education Secretary Linda McMahon said “We’re going to start getting it back,” adding “For those people who have borrowed money and have not been paying — that’s just not to be punitive, there are many ways that they can go online to understand how they can get back into the right payment structure. Because when they’re in default, they can’t buy a house, they can’t buy a car, their credit scores go down.” h/t Jennifer Jacobs

As we reported last week (full note available to premium subscribers), student-loan delinquencies began climbing after the pandemic-era forbearance on repayment ended in September 2023. The Biden administration allowed a year for payments to fully ramp back up, which temporarily suppressed delinquency rates. Now, though, missed payments are crossing the 90-day threshold and showing up on borrowers’ credit reports.

The New York Fed estimates 15.6% of federal student-loan balances —  more than $250 billion — were past due by the end of the ramp-up period, affecting 9.7 million borrowers. As these delinquencies hit credit reports, borrowers face steep declines in their credit scores and, more importantly, sharply reduced access to credit.

That said, delinquent borrowers could still enroll in income-driven repayment plans offered by the Department of Education, and the scale of past-due loans may have shifted since the end of the on-ramp period. Some borrowers who were past due may have come back into compliance since.

Overall, if 9.7 million borrowers default and face declining credit scores, BBG estimates a drag on annual PCE spending of 0.1% point to 0.3%. In the worst-case scenario, it could reduce PCE spending growth by as much as 0.4% by year-end… an outcome that is extremely deflationary, just in case Jerome Powell is still debating whether or not to pull the plug on rate cuts.

Submitted by Gord Magill for American Truckers United: 

The Trucking Industry in America received a major boost from President Trump on the night of Monday, April 28, when he signed an Executive Order titled “Enforcing Commonsense Rules of The Road for America’s Truck Drivers”. The primary aim of the order is to overturn an Obama-era memorandum that waived enforcement of English Language Proficiency requirements as required under 49 CFR 31.11 (b) (2); that waiver having opened a massive loophole, which matched with a program from the Biden Administration, allowed for the insourcing of a great deal of unvetted foreign labor onto America’s roads as ‘truck drivers’.

This move to restrict the insourcing of foreign truckers into America, which was a deliberate attempt to suppress American’s wages for the bidding of massive corporations like Amazon, whom are known and a major client of subcontractors that abuse such labor, is welcomed and acknowledged by the trucking community. We hope that this is only the beginning of a number of reforms which ought to see the return of a healthy, sustainable, and safe trucking industry to our roads.

Another crash… and once again, the driver couldn’t even speak English.

How are companies out here hiring truck drivers who can’t communicate on the road?

Make it make sense.

Should English fluency be required for commercial drivers?

⬇️ pic.twitter.com/6XSXTquULE

— Tony Lane 🇺🇸 (@TonyLaneNV) April 28, 2025

Another Trucker that can’t speak English on Canadian roads causing absolute carnage.

Do you feel safe sharing the road with these guys? pic.twitter.com/bSyLxetL7J

— Bruce (@bruce_barrett) February 9, 2025

Your refugee CDL-licensed, non-English-speaking truck drivers are still all over the highways in America today because MAGA isn’t serious about reversing demographic change. https://t.co/uIGRGQcBqr pic.twitter.com/EsX2TONN3T

— Tom Hennessy (@Tomhennessey69) March 25, 2025

Another major problem coming over the horizon is likewise tied to the same Covid demand spike that saw the Biden Administration make the terrible mistake of allowing the insourcing of all of these excess entrants into the market. Drivers are only one component of the trucking industry; where do the trucks come from for people to drive, and how were they paid for during this period? As it turns out, many of the trucks we see on the road today are “under water assets” that are not being paid for, and a situation akin to the 2008 financial crisis is taking place right now, not with real estate, but with trucks.

In an interview (via Autonomous Truck(er)s) with Harvey Beech, President of EOS Trucking in North Little Rock, Arkansas, a number of details about this problem are revealed.

“When you look at what happened with used truck prices, that’s where this started. It’s very similar to the housing bubble, where we had unchecked lust and greed which took over and we started seeing Freightliners with 450,000 miles being retailed out there for well north of $150,000 at 12 to 15% interest. And it went on at scale.

…

We’ve been conditioned to expect downturns in freight cycles. And that’s why so many of us in the first quarter of 2023 …we knew we were going into something … really intense with regards to truck pricing. We knew there was a lot of trucks bought at over inflated prices … and as soon as things turned we knew those would be the first to have their trucks re-possessed.”

Curiously, Beech tells us, those trucks were not actually repossessed.

“We did not expect the banks to allow what has become eternal deferrals … we learned in 2008 … that you have to have cash reserves, and hunker down, and wait on everyone else to have their trucks repossessed. In May of 2023 … we had financing companies say ‘Hey, you might want to think about not making your truck payments.’

As everyone runs out of cash … one of the things you have to do is request deferral which means you’re not making your truck payment, which means you’re going upside down … the banks are supposed to repossess … in 2008 there were oceans of trucks repossessed … they had to rent cow pastures to park the trucks.

November of 2023 I’m hearing of big carriers going into their 6th month of deferrals … 2024 we expect to see a turn, and it doesn’t come …. And the turn of this year it still hasn’t come. No one’s trucks are being re-possessed … never has there been this much widespread non-performance on loans.”

And why wouldn’t financing companies or dealerships want to repossess equipment their customers were incapable of paying for?

“The truck makers and financial institutions that chose to take part in that huge bubble that was created (in 2021- early 22) … now that has caused them to be so far upside down that they can’t repossess trucks … back in 08 it was 90 days, by 120 they were repossessing trucks …the banks failures to repossess trucks has drained the cash reserves of those of us left to compete all this time against carriers on six month to a year or more of deferred payments … the financial institutions will not execute … some truck financing institutions are at 80% in deferral … that is bank failure material … they cannot repossess the trucks .. because they have to record that loss, and this is so widespread, like never before … if they repossessed all of the trucks, they would have had such losses because of the overinflated prices … that it would collapse the financial institutions altogether.”

There are others in trucking reporting similar problems, but unlike Mr Beech, would only report their observations under the condition of anonymity.

“This has been the toughest past 3 years we have experienced in 30 years”

“My fleet received deferrals from four lenders starting in late 2023, following nearly two years of industry downturn. Three deferrals lasted 3 months, with two extended for an additional 3 months.”

“We haven’t taken or asked for payment deferrals from anyone. I did bust the balls of my banker telling him I felt they were complacent in extending terms and letting payments go 6 months in arears for other borrowers. I felt that the reason was they financed trucks and trailers at numbers they didn’t want on their books. Stock prices were really good and moving up so they were better off to not take back a $100,000 truck that was worth $50,000 not because of the write off they could with stand that it was what it might do to stock valuation.”

“We are approaching our bank renewal for the trucking business and I do not know if they will have much confidence in us. 25 months in the red is not something that gives confidence“

As the effects of Trump’s Tariffs begin to be felt, no doubt some carriers who are in dire straits will be wiped out of the market. If not for the Biden administration flooding the trucking industry with insourced labor in 2021, and the greed of financial institutions repeating the same lending mistakes of 2008, many of those carriers would have weathered this storm.

Are we about to face another, perhaps smaller, financial meltdown caused by the malfeasance of lending institutions? How many American trucking companies are they going to take down with them by kicking this can down the road?

Will government leaders and the banks ever learn? 

A slowdown in economic activity, combined with growing tariff uncertainty, appears to be curbing consumer appetite for highly processed junk food. The latest trends show a declining demand for sweet snacks in North America as more shoppers shift their spending toward real food, such as meat, vegetables, and eggs. 

Mondelez International — the maker of Sour Patch Kids, Oreos, Ritz, Toblerone, Cadbury, and other highly processed food brands — reported slower-than-expected sales for the first quarter.

Organic revenue, which excludes currency fluctuations and one-time items, increased 3.1%, falling short of the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 3.5%. Notably, sales in North America declined during the quarter. 

On an earnings call, Mondelez CEO Dirk Van de Put told analysts: “I really do not expect to see a significant improvement in consumer confidence in the near term in the US.” 

“Two, three years ago consumers would easily pay above $4 for a pack of biscuits,” Van de Put said adding, “We’re now seeing that we need to be below $4 and ideally below $3.”

Mondelez noted that shoppers are beginning to prioritize real food — if that’s meat, vegetables, and eggs — over snacks, chips, and candy. Also, lower-income consumers are pivoting towards smaller packages, while higher-income consumers are searching for larger value bundles. 

Mondelez reiterated its full-year guidance and warned profit will slide 10% this year “due to unprecedented cocoa cost inflation.”

Weighing in on the North American junk food slowdown, Goldman analysts Leah Jordan and Eli Thompson offered clients their first take on Mondelez’s first-quarter results and its unchanged full-year outlook:

1. North America came in softer-than-expected on the back of retailer destocking and softer cracker demand as the consumer remains value-focused;

2. chocolate elasticity tracked in-line with expectations, although more pricing is still to come; and

3. MDLZ reiterated its FY25 guide in constant currency while potential upside is likely to be reinvested throughout the year to support potential growth in FY26

The key takeaway for the North American market:

• North America softer-than-expected: Organic net sales in North America came in softer-than-expected at -3.6% (vs GS/consensus of flat/+0.1%), largely due to retailer destocking (-250 bps), while segment profitability also missed. The destocking impact should be one time in nature, but we do not expect it to reverse as we have heard from retailers that this effort has been driven by efficiency gains. Additionally, MDLZ noted softer demand for crackers (vs cookies), although both categories are holding up relatively better than other parts of snacking, plus the company is holding share due to investments in price pack architecture and key activations. Additionally, management spoke to increasing promotional activity by peers in crackers, and we see greater private label competition in the category as well. Regarding consumer behavior, the company noted a shift to smaller pack sizes by the lower end and toward multi-packs for upper income cohorts, along with a shift in channels toward dollar stores, clubs, and value retailers.

Details about the cocoa market:

• Chocolate elasticity tracking in-line, although more pricing still to come: MDLZ indicated elasticity within chocolate tracked in-line with expectations at -0.5%, while it gained share in the category. However, more pricing will be implemented in the spring with management taking a wait and see approach while expressing confidence in its chocolate strategy with a range of price points. The company expects a top line acceleration throughout the year, supported by both pricing and volumes, with Easter strength noted for 2Q and pricing negotiations are now complete in Europe (vs a disruption last year). By region, management highlighted solid Easter chocolate demand for Europe/UK, Brazil, and Australia, with stable YTD elasticities noted for Europe and Emerging Markets. Notably, MDLZ indicated greater elasticity for chocolate in the U.S. vs ROW with volumes tracking down -5%, which is a negative read-through for HSY.

Notes on guidance:

• Reiterated FY25 guide with potential upside expected to be reinvested: MDLZ reiterated its FY25 guidance with an adj EPS decline of -10% (constant currency), noting potential upside would likely be reinvested (e.g., 1Q beat planned to be reinvested in marketing this year), while the tariff impact remains small. FY25 organic sales guidance was also reiterated at +5%, with sequential improvements supported by both volume and pricing. We also expect a gross margin improvement throughout the year tied to its pricing action. Regarding FY26, MDLZ expects EPS growth y/y, but management stopped short on the magnitude of potential ranges given cocoa uncertainty. For cocoa, the company still sees a supply/demand surplus with further demand destruction likely (as some will likely reformulate). Furthermore, the company sounded constructive on its position given lower cocoa butter prices y/y, its bigger input exposure.

Despite key downside risks, such as an economic slowdown, Goldman analysts remained “Buy” rated on Mondelez, with a 12-month price target of $71. 

Mondelez did not indicate that the slowdown in junk food demand was influenced by the “Make America Healthy Again” movement in any way (well at least not yet). 

Authored by Jeremy Portnoy via RealClearInvestigations,

Topline: The Houston Independent School District is facing a budget deficit that at one point reached $250 million, but that did not stop Superintendent Mike Miles from accepting a $126,730 bonus in April to supplement his $380,000 salary.

Key facts: Miles’ bonus was calculated after he received a 66.7 out of 100 on his first annual evaluation from the school board that measured student performance, “executive leadership” and “vision,” according to the Houston Chronicle. A perfect score would have netted Miles a $190,000 bonus.

The school district has struggled with funding for years, as have other large school districts in Texas. The state government has not increased public school funding since 2019 to keep pace with inflation, and yet some of Houston’s struggles come simply from overspending. Cumulative inflation from 2019 to 2024 in the U.S. was 22%, but Houston ISD increased its payroll by 29% in that timespan, according to OpenTheBooks’ database. 

Last year the school released an audit detailing “overtime abuse” that forced the district to pay $26 million in one year. Auditors also found an “overreliance on purchased services” and “overuse of consultants with several other costs to overall effectiveness.”

The district began the current school year with a $125 million deficit, but Miles asked the school board to approve an amendment that increased spending and ballooned the deficit to $250 million, forcing the district to dig into its reserves and one-time savings.

Next year the district projects a $33 million deficit after laying off 1,500 employees. Miles is also considering closing some school buildings to cut costs.

Search all federal, state and local government salaries and vendor spending with the AI search bot, Benjamin, at OpenTheBooks.com. 

Supporting quote: Miles told the school’s community advisory committee, “I assure you, that bonus and incentive was well deserved, and I know my value, and achievement results show that.”

Critical quote: The Houston Chronicle’s editorial board equated Miles’ 66.7 evaluation score to a “D,” claiming that “It’s a lousy grade. The kind you bury at the bottom of your backpack in hopes it disappears before somebody sees. That’s essentially what the district tried to do. Chronicle reporters had to file a public information request to get a copy of the evaluation.”

Summary: Houston is far from the only school district giving its superintendent a generous bonus, but a fiscal crisis — and a “D” grade — is not the time to do it. 

The #WasteOfTheDay is brought to you by the forensic auditors at OpenTheBooks.com

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It had already been a miserable month for oil, which has suffered its worst monthly performance since 2021 and also is on pace for its month of April on record… and then it got even worse when shortly before noon ET, when Reuters reported, citing multiple sources, that Saudi Arabian officials are briefing allies and industry experts to say the kingdom is unwilling to prop up the oil market with further supply cuts and can handle a prolonged period of low prices.

This shift in Saudi policy could suggest a move toward producing more and expanding its market share, a major change after five years spent balancing the market through deep output as a leader of the OPEC+ group of oil producers. Those cuts had supported prices, in turn bolstering the oil export revenue that many oil producers rely on, but many OPEC+ members – most notably Kazakhstan – took advantage of the production restraint and blew away through their export quotas, infuriating other cartel members.

Sure enough, Reuters notes that Riyadh has been angered by Kazakhstan and Iraq producing above their OPEC+ targets. And after pushing members to adhere to those targets and to compensate for oversupply in recent months, a frustrated Riyadh is changing tack, OPEC+ sources said.

Saudi Arabia pushed for a larger-than-planned OPEC+ output hike in May, a decision that helped send oil prices below $60 a barrel to a 4-year low.

And now that Kazahkstan blew it for all cartel members, everyone will share the pain equally, as lower prices are bad news for producers that rely on oil exports to fund their economies. Although producers like Saudi have a very low cost of production, they need higher oil prices to pay for government spending. When oil prices fall, many large oil-producing countries come under pressure to cut their budgets.

And just to confirm that they are not bluffing, the Saudis appear to be briefing allies and experts that they are ready to do just that. The last time they did just that was in March 2020, just before covid shut down the global economy and briefly sent oil prices negative, sparking budget crises across all OPEC members.

Saudi officials in recent weeks have told allies and market participants the kingdom can live with the fall in prices by raising borrowing and cutting costs, the five sources said.

“The Saudis are ready for lower prices and may need to pull back on some major projects,” one of the sources said. All sources declined to be named due to sensitivity of the issue.

The problem is that Saudi Arabia needs oil prices above $90 to balance its budget, higher than other large OPEC producers such as the United Arab Emirates, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). As a result, Riyadh may need to delay or cut back some projects due to the price drop, analysts have said.

OPEC+, which besides the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries also includes allies such as Russia, may decide to speed up output hikes again in June, OPEC+ sources have said. OPEC+ is cutting output by over 5 million barrels or 5% of global supply, to which Saudi Arabia is contributing two-fifths.

Russia, the second largest exporter in OPEC+ behind Saudi Arabia, is aware of Riyadh’s plans for faster output increases, said two of the five sources who are familiar with the Russian thinking and conversations with Riyadh. Even so, Russia would prefer the group stick to slower output increases.

Saudi Arabia and Russia, the de facto leaders of OPEC+, make the biggest contributions to OPEC+ cuts. Russia’s budget balances at about $70 a barrel and the Kremlin’s spending is on the rise due to the Russian war in Ukraine.
Russia may see a further fall in revenue as prices for its discounted, sanctioned oil could fall below $50 a barrel as a result of OPEC+ output rises, one of the two sources said.

Theories on the apparent change in Saudi strategy range from punishing OPEC+ members exceeding their quotas to a move to fight for market share after ceding ground to non-OPEC+ producers such as the United States and Guyana. Higher output may also be a fillip to U.S. President Donald Trump, who has called for OPEC to boost output to help keep U.S. gasoline prices down.

Trump is due to visit Saudi Arabia in May and could offer Riyadh an arms package and a nuclear agreement. OPEC+ decided to triple its planned output increase to 411,000 bpd.

That still leaves OPEC+ holding back more than 5 million bpd, curbs the group aims to unwind by the end of 2026. 

“We would still call this a ‘managed’ unwind of cuts and not a fight for market share,” UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said.

“This confirms the market’s fears that Saudi Arabia’s accelerated unwinds were not temporary, but a long-term strategy shift,” said Rebecca Babin, a senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Group. It raises the question of whether “Saudi is going to repeat the 2020 playbook to dramatically increase production.”

For now the market is voting “yes”, and the news sent WTI tumbling as much as 4%,or more than $2 to just under $58, the lowest price since early 2021 (and a level which was only briefly breached after Trump’s Liberation Day sent oil to $55 before rebounding rapidly).

OPEC+ rocked the crude market in early April, with a surprise decision to increase supply in May by 411,000 barrels a day, the equivalent of three monthly tranches from a previous plan. Morgan Stanley has said it expects a “meaningful surplus” to develop over time, while JPMorgan Chase & Co. warned the cartel may accelerate planned production increases at a meeting next week.

Beyond OPEC+, non-cartel nations are also expected to add supplies, including drillers in Canada and Guyana, feeding concerns about a global glut.

At the same time, hopes are fading that there will be quick breakthroughs in US-led trade negotiations, weighing on the outlook for energy demand. The US economy contracted for the first time since 2022 in the first quarter as a result of a surge in pre-tariff imports and softer consumer spending. In China, factory activity slipped into the worst contraction since December 2023, revealing early damage from the trade war.