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Will The Dollar Continue To Fall?

Will The Dollar Continue To Fall?

Authored by Jim O’Neill via Project Syndicate,

There are not only cyclical but also structural and even systemic factors that may make continued dollar weakening more likely. Warning signs in the US economy are flashing red, and most other countries are urgently looking for ways to reduce their economies’ dependence on Donald Trump’s America.

Although I no longer live and breathe the markets on a daily basis, I have never forgotten some key lessons I learned early on as an economist working in the financial industry: it is much easier to be wrong than right.

Consider one of the big, early surprises of 2025.

Late last year, following Donald Trump’s election victory, the US dollar was steadily rising, reflecting widespread expectations of relatively robust US economic growth, additional fiscal stimulus, and new or somewhat higher tariffs that supposedly would strengthen the dollar further. Instead, the dollar has been declining sharply.

Something else I learned early on is that, given the size and depth of the foreign-exchange market – where all known information gets priced in very quickly – it pays to be skeptical of overwhelming consensus views. Often, some element of the consensus outlook proves rather questionable. For example, I found it odd that so many forecasters saw tariffs as pro-dollar and unlikely to be overly disruptive to the US economy, despite being a net negative for US consumers.

Then there is the fact that some of Trump’s closest economic advisers have spoken openly about the need for other currencies to be stronger. That is why they have been pushing some new version of the famous 1985 Plaza Accord, whereby Japan and Germany agreed to strengthen their own currencies against the dollar to placate the United States. The so-called Mar-a-Lago Accord is supposed to do the same.

What seems clear to me is that the Trump administration is focused on US manufacturing and its own definition of competitiveness, neither of which offers much basis for expecting a persistently strengthening dollar. True, the usual counter-argument is that tariffs are needed because the dollar’s strengthening cannot be stopped, given the “exceptional” US economy’s unrivaled merits. America is “exceptional.” It boasts deep, liquid financial markets and cutting-edge technology, and it is preeminent in security matters and superior to its peers in terms of overall growth.

If the dollar’s relative weakness in 2025 is merely a price correction, these fashionable arguments will likely re-appear and carry it upward again. And yet, there are cyclical, structural, and even systemic factors that may make continued dollar weakening more likely.

On the cyclical front, recent high-frequency data point to a near-term softening of the US economy, with the closely watched Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow tracker forecasting negative growth for the first quarter of this year. Of course, it is too early to know whether this will be borne out. But while it could be just a temporary or technical artifact of the data, it is hardly the only warning sign. The latest business and consumer confidence surveys also give cause for concern.

Moreover, even people outside of the financial industry are becoming more unsettled about future inflation. The latest University of Michigan five-year inflation expectations survey (one of my own favored indicators) shows a rise to 3.9% – the highest in more than 30 years. If this trend persists, watch out.

Some analysts argue that this index is not as reliable as it once was, owing to changes in the survey methodology and the suspicion that Democratic voters are more inclined than Republicans and independents to respond. But professional pollsters know how to account for such discrepancies, and unless the actual calculation is somehow more biased toward Democrats, this argument is unconvincing.

In any case, many more commentators are suddenly talking about US stagflation, and owing to Trump’s erratic and aggressive behavior, other countries are not simply standing still. 

As I noted last month, policymakers in many countries – especially in Europe, but also in China – recognize that they must make changes to reduce their economies’ dependence on the US.

All these developments in the US and globally can account for the dollar’s recent decline. But there is also a more fundamental issue apart from what might otherwise be a “cyclical” decline. If Trump persists with tariffs and they do raise US inflation and create knock-on effects in the real economy, the longer-term equilibrium value of the dollar is likely to be less than it might have been. This, too, would warrant an adjustment in the price of the greenback – and perhaps a rather large one, if Trump keeps doubling down on his current approach.

That brings us to the systemic dimension. There is a long-running academic debate about why the dollar’s strength has persisted for so long, with some arguing that its value goes hand in hand with US power as a security guarantor and the dominant player in the post-World War II multilateral institutions. 

If the US is now abandoning these roles, others will be forced to stand up for themselves, and the dollar’s unquestioned dominance could finally come to an end.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 03/19/2025 – 17:40

Infowars’ Owen Shroyer Swatted As Conservatives Continue To Be Targeted

Infowars’ Owen Shroyer Swatted As Conservatives Continue To Be Targeted

One week after Infowars reporter Jamie White was murdered outside of his Austin apartment, followed by a pizza delivery under the name of ‘Jamie White.’

Shroyer posted pictures and footage of the swatting on X;

He described the encounter here. 

Alex Jones later described the incident:

Shroyer’s swatting is not an isolated incident – as numerous conservatives have been targeted in recent weeks with similar swattings.

“It’s been dozens of people that have been swatted. What is going on? We know what’s going on,” said Shroyer. “The Democrat Party and all of their little street thugs funded by ActBlue, the stolen money from USAID, George Soros—all these different groups are behind it. They’re behind the terror attacks against Elon Musk.”

In recent days, Bill Clinton accuser and social media influencer Juanita Broaddrick was swatted.

And last week Infowars’ Chase Geiser was swatted twice in 12 hours. 

Five days ago,  FBI Director Kash Patel on Friday responded to the string of ‘swatting’ incidents, which also included Nick Sotor, Gunther Eagleman, ‘Catturd,’ and Trump impersonator Shawn Farash, saying;

“I want to address the alarming rise in ‘swatting’ incidents targeting media figures. The FBI is aware of this dangerous trend, and my team and I are already taking action to investigate and hold those responsible accountable,” Patel wrote on X Friday morning.

Some advice:

 

Tyler Durden
Wed, 03/19/2025 – 17:20

Australian Politician Admits ‘Free Speech’ Is Incompatible With A ‘Multicultural’ Society

Australian Politician Admits ‘Free Speech’ Is Incompatible With A ‘Multicultural’ Society

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via modernity.news,

Australian politician Chris Minns inadvertently said the quiet part out loud when he admitted that the existence of true “free speech” is incompatible with a multicultural society.

The Premier of New South Wales tacitly admitted that in order to uphold the myth that ‘diversity is our greatest strength’, the freedom to say it isn’t must be censored.

“I recognize and I fully said from the beginning, we don’t have the same freedom of speech laws that they have in the United States, and the reason for that is that we want to hold together a multicultural community and have people live in peace,” said Minns.

The politician made the comments in the context of new hate speech laws in Australia that were rushed through off the back of a hysterical moral panic based on a completely fraudulent narrative.

The new legislation was introduced in response to a supposed terror attack plot on a childcare center near a synagogue on the outskirts of Sydney.

However, it subsequently emerged that the attack was actually a “criminal con job,” according to police, and that wasn’t politically or racially motivated at all.

“The entire operation wasn’t about mass destruction. It was a scam,” reports Reclaim the Net. “The alleged mastermind, reportedly a figure nestled deep within Australia’s criminal underworld, was running a spectacular bluff. The plan? Create an artificial crisis, let the media and politicians whip themselves into a frenzy, and then swoop in as the “hero” with inside information — possibly to negotiate a reduced sentence, distract police from other crimes, or simply revel in the chaos.

MLC John Ruddick underscored the false pretext of the hate speech laws when he told parliament, “Parliament was misinformed by the Minns government about the urgency of the bills referred to in one A, B, and C… this House calls on the Minns government to repeal the bills… and apologize for both misleading this Parliament, preventing a Parliamentary Inquiry, and further curbing free speech principles by these reactionary bills.”

However, Minns refused to respond to Ruddick’s argument and doubled down, glibly asserting that anyone who opposes draconian restrictions on free speech is facilitating “racist abuse”.

As Christina Maas points out, as with all ‘hate speech’ laws, they will inevitably be abused to silence native Australians from speaking out about the failure of multiculturalism and diversity.

“These laws will be used against dissenters. Against people who question government policies. Against critics of the ruling ideology,” she writes.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 03/19/2025 – 17:00

Are Tesla Terrorists Using Far-Left NGO To Conceal Identity?

Are Tesla Terrorists Using Far-Left NGO To Conceal Identity?

The mysterious “DOGEQUEST” website (now displaying: “This site can’t be reached”) had published a searchable map containing the alleged names, addresses, phone numbers, and email addresses of Tesla owners across the United States. This website was operational at a time when deranged leftists firebombed Tesla vehicles, the most recent terror attack taking place at a Tesla service center in Las Vegas on Tuesday morning.

Although the accuracy of all the data posted on DOGEQUEST remains uncertain, 404 Media confirmed that some of the names listed are indeed Tesla owners or supporters of Tesla and Elon Musk. We’ve seen it before: deranged leftists are obsessed with making and publishing ‘kill lists’ of their political enemies…

The focus of this note examines groups that may be connected to DOGEQUEST’s creation by one, two, or even three degrees of separation, suggesting that their mission may have been to support—whether directly or indirectly, such as through the creation of a website and a map of Tesla locations—domestic terrorists targeting Tesla service centers, Supercharging networks, and individual Tesla owners.

DOGEQUEST—now offline, displaying the message “This site can’t be reached”—another critical clue that offers insight into the potential bad actors behind the website’s creation, which ultimately sought to inflict harm on an American company.

See the “Is DOGEQUEST a protest platform?” section in the screenshot of the website. There is a sentence that reads: “Before you embark on any adventure, we highly recommend checking out the No Trace Project.” 

This does not imply or suggest a direct connection; it is only that DOGEQUEST directs users to the No Trace Project to help conceal their identity.

Clicking on the link, which routes to No Trace Project’s website. The site proudly states on the top: 

“No trace, no case. A collection of tools to help anarchists and other rebels understand the capabilities of their enemies, undermine surveillance efforts, and ultimately act without getting caught.”

Scrolling to the lower section of No Trace Project’s website, the “Newsletter” section reads, “Irregular news of the project, multilingual as much as possible, maximum one email per month.” It directs users to subscribe to a newsletter hosted by a Washington State non-profit called “Riseup Networks.” 

Riseup describes itself as an “autonomous body based in Seattle” that “provides communication and computer resources to allies engaged in struggles against capitalism and other forms of oppression.”

The non-profit’s Wikipedia page states the non-profit located in downtown Seattle supports “various social justice causes and opposition to capitalism.” So Marxist.

Public records from Washington State show Riseup Networks is a non-profit focused on “Technological assistance towards social justice.”

On Riseup’s “Donate” section, information reveals that the non-profit has a “sister organization, Riseup Labs.”

Hmmm. 

We, more than anyone, support anonymous dissent. However, there is a clear distinction between anonymous freedom of speech and using anonymity to conceal one’s identity for domestic terrorism. Moreover, far-left activists have demonstrated a high level of organization here, and have done in the past… Remember Robert Creamer. 

CC Doge Team.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 03/19/2025 – 16:40

Europe Goes Full Totalitarian And Puts The Entire Western World At Risk

Europe Goes Full Totalitarian And Puts The Entire Western World At Risk

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us

It’s happening again. Europe is once again going totalitarian and this time there’s a decidedly familiar communist stench. The outcome was predictable for many of us in the alternative media and the situation is only going to get worse in the next few years, but what does this mean for the rest of the world? With the European elites casting off their humanist masks and going outright Orwellian, what kind of chaos can we expect to unfold?

First and foremost I want to point out a key piece of irony here – For decades in the US we heard the tiresome argument that our 2nd Amendment gun rights are meaningless because they are “unnecessary in maintaining our freedoms”. Anti-gun rights activists and politicians commonly used Europe as their sterling example:

“If gun rights are so important for freedom, then what about the Europeans? They have strict gun laws and they’re not losing their rights…”

As Americans who understand what it means to fight a rebellion against tyranny and win, our response to this claim has always been the same: “Just give it time…”

Of course, we were right and they were wrong. I’m sure a large number of people among the 95% of EU and UK citizens that are disarmed are probably wishing desperately for firearms right about now. The reasons why are numerous and horrifying.

The Downward Spiral Into 1984

In the EU and UK there has been a slow burn on censorship the past ten years which has recently exploded into a California Palisades level inferno of speech restrictions. Door to door enforcement has increased as the public speaks out against multicultural polities. The excuse is always the same – Native Europeans are not allowed to criticize third world integration because it “might hurt people’s feelings”.  Any opposition to mass immigration is labeled “hate speech”.

Movements for national identity and border security are regularly attacked in the media. In France and Germany globalist officials are attempting to make it impossible for conservative leaning political parties to participate in elections.

In Romania they have succeeded in disrupting the normal voting process, arresting populist candidate Calin Georgescu after he won the first round of presidential elections. EU controlled authorities have ruled that he will not be allowed to run again.  And for those that think he was blocked due to Russian interference, well, they just blocked the candidacy of another conservative candidate simply because she criticized the EU.  Romania is also tightening rules for online speech in an effort to silence public dissent.

In true dystopian fashion, the powers-that-be call this “protecting democracy”.

An even more disturbing trend is Europe’s rising war rhetoric against Russia, with UK and French officials threatening the deployment of troops to Ukraine. Ukraine is losing the war badly and globalists are hellbent on cutting an artery and fomenting a world war. They insist that Ukraine must get back all captured territory and be allowed eventual NATO membership. In other words, a Russian victory cannot be allowed even if it means global conflagration.

As I predicted in April of last year in my article ‘World War III Is Now Inevitable – Here’s Why It Can’t Be Avoided’, the establishment is seeking to stage a domino effect in which greater Europe and the US are drawn into the Ukraine conflict. Even with a tentative peace deal being negotiated with the Russians right now, NATO members have promised to escalate tensions in Ukraine with boots on the ground and increase troop presence in Poland on the Russian border.

Because of this development European officials are actively and openly entertaining ideas of forced conscription and the propaganda is starting to spread. It’s important to note that the war rhetoric is gaining momentum in tandem with mass immigration programs and censorship enforcement. This is not a coincidence; this is a directed and coordinated conspiracy.

The establishment is going for broke in light of the growing public shift away from progressive (socialist) ideology. It’s clear that the elites are afraid of a large scale reformation: A return to nationalism, conservatism, meritocracy and moral fortitude. Western culture is valued again and people are acting to defend it. The movement will soon be impossible to stop and the time of the globalists is running out.

Because of online discourse and the alternative media, dominating the information space is no longer possible. So the elites are turning to physical force and imprisonment to silence their opponents.

For now Britain is the worst perpetrator with citizens receiving intimidation visits from police and suffering arrests for posting “offensive words” and memes. Some are even being arrested for flying their national flag in the sight of migrants. Movements in support of “populism” are demonized and painted as “racist” or “xenophobic”, but these accusations are meant to distract from the very real cultural replacement being perpetrated in greater Europe.

The Hidden Purpose Behind Cultural Replacement

Mass immigration and cultural replacement is a strategy the globalists have been trying in the US for decades and we’re very familiar with the process. That said, I would suggest that Europe’s invasion (which launched around 2014) is an even greater threat due to the religious zealotry of the migrants involved.

Armies of third world invaders, largely from Islamic nations, have flooded into the EU and UK and threaten to completely displace the native born population. Muslims view the west as a cultural and spiritual enemy that needs to be brought under their control. Fundamentalists (around 70% of Muslims globally) believe that the entire world must one day submit to Islam and Sharia Law. They revel in the invasion and see Europeans as cattle ripe for subjugation.

There’s no intent to assimilate, no hope for coexistence. That’s not the goal. The elites are well aware of this dynamic and they welcome it. But why?

Western civilization has been scheduled for demolition and the establishment is using elements of third-world alien cultures to do the grunt work of tearing that civilization down. I predicted the results of this program in my article ‘Britain Is Proof: Globalists Plan To Use Migrants As A Mercenary Army Against The West’, published in August of 2024.

In that article I noted:

“If western populations are unified in opposing the globalist ideology then the task of deconstruction becomes impossible for them. So, they simply destroy the west from within by introducing millions of people that will NEVER assimilate or unify…”

“…In other words, my argument was that migrants from the third-world are not merely being used as unwitting tools for cultural saturation of the west. They’re not being shipped in by the millions to simply live off the fruits of our labor and our ancestors’ labors. I believe they are being brought into the US, the UK and Europe as enforcers for the establishment.”

I went on to explain the greater purpose of western government using third-world mercenaries:

“Keir Starmer and other government officials have been meeting with Muslim groups to reassure them that the government is on their side. The migrants are now emboldened to do as they please while the Brits face the reality that if they fight back, the government will put them in prison. The migrants are now, in the most basic sense, a mercenary wing of the UK government…”

I would go even further and say that in the event of war with Russia native born citizens will be rounded up for conscription while most migrants are left behind to run the streets of London, Paris and Berlin. I believe the migrants are enforcers to keep any potentially defiant Europeans in line. Many empires and monarchs throughout history have used foreign mercenaries as muscle to prevent local rebellion. The politicians in the EU and UK are following a similar strategy.

What Happens Next?

If we track these patterns to their natural conclusion I think it’s clear that Europe is about to become a nexus for global change. They will either destroy the west with instability and authoritarianism or their tyranny will inspire a modern day crusade to save free civilization.  In either case, they’re about to make a mess.

First, I think there will definitely be forced conscription, but I suspect there will be a lot more opposition and protests against this policy than the elites understand. No one in the west wants to die for Ukraine. There is no unifying moral imperative to enter into a war with Russia. People will resist.

Second, there’s going to be a heightened focus on speech controls and arrests unless the populace presents a unified response. This counter-movement will have to be prepared for violence because there’s a good chance they will need to defend themselves.

Third, governments will try to use economic leverage to silence dissent and punish people who refuse to comply. It’s not a coincidence that the EU just announced that they will be introducing CBDC programs at the retail level by the end of 2025. They’re going to push for a cashless system because this will give them total control over people’s economic access.

Unless Trump pulls off some kind of diplomatic miracle the deployment of EU and UK troops to Ukraine is predetermined. Anything to spark a volatile escalation, possibly to lure the US back into the fray under security obligations. Again, the globalists want WWIII as a catalyst for a new world order.

Fifth, Ukraine will fall to Russia regardless. This is already happening but the media is trying to gloss over troop movements and geo-location data showing increasing territorial gains for Russia. They’re also refusing to acknowledge the steep decline in Ukrainian conscripts under the age of 40.  Without a Trump deal, Ukraine will implode.  Europe does not have the troops or the training to fight Russia in a near-peer attrition-based conflict.  Their involvement would only prolong the inevitable or trigger a nuclear exchange.

Sixth, there’s going to be severe diplomatic isolation between the US and Europe. It has already started with NATO potentially breaking apart and the response from our “allies” has been nothing but hostile. EU officials act as if they’re entitled to American money and protection, but the question they need to address is WHY?

The leadership of Europe is deeply socialist and they are utterly opposed to any conservative appeal to national and cultural identity. They hate borders, they hate western culture, they hate meritocracy, they hate individual liberty, they hate Christianity and they hate Americans in general. I don’t think we have much in common with them anymore and it doesn’t make sense to be allies with people who would happily tear down everything we believe in.

The US and EU alliance is dead. After their latest authoritarian actions it’s time to cut ties, or, remove the globalists in power and change the dynamic. From my observations there are millions of Europeans across the Atlantic hoping and praying right now that Americans intervene and remove these tyrants from their bureaucratic throne. While a breaking of ties is almost guaranteed, there is also a chance that a war between the US and the European oligarchy is brewing.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 03/19/2025 – 16:20

Trump Threatens Houthis With ‘Complete Annihilation’ As US In ‘Continuous’ Bombing

Trump Threatens Houthis With ‘Complete Annihilation’ As US In ‘Continuous’ Bombing

President Trump is freshly warning that the Houthis (Ansarallah movement) of Yemen will be completely annihilated if they don’t immediately halt their drone and missile attacks in the Red Sea.

The Wednesday warning came just as US Central Command (CENTCOM) has confirmed it is engaged in “continuous operations against Iran-back Houthi terrorists.”

The US has been engaged in several days of airstrikes on Yemen, via Reuters.

Trump’s words posted to Truth Social accused Iran of ramping up military supplies and arms to the Houthis, as the group continues launching missiles not only on Red Sea shipping but Israeli territory.

“Reports are coming in that while Iran has lessened its intensity on Military Equipment and General Support to the Houthis, they are still sending large levels of Supplies,” Trump’s statement began, in a bit of a surprise admission of lessened Iranian support to the Houthis.

But Trump pivoted to demanding that any and all supplies must end, or else the Houthis will be “completely annihilated”…

Iran must stop the sending of these Supplies IMMEDIATELY. Let the Houthis fight it out themselves. Either way they lose, but this way they lose quickly. Tremendous damage has been inflicted upon the Houthi barbarians, and watch how it will get progressively worse — It’s not even a fair fight, and never will be. They will be completely annihilated!

Yet the Houthis have vowed they will not back down. According to an earlier Houthi statement in response to American military action:

“After engaging with our armed forces, US aircraft carrier retreated as far as 1,300 km north of the Red Sea,” Ansarallah leader Abdul Malik al-Houthi said on Monday.

“We are confronting US aggression by targeting its aircraft carrier, warships, and naval vessels, with greater escalation options if it persists. If the situation and responsibility require us to take a bigger step or bigger action, we will not hesitate, and we are ready for this option,” Houthi said during a televised speech.

The Defense Minister in the Ansarallah-led National Salvation Government, Major General Mohammed al-Atifi, also confirmed that the YAF “[is] ready to develop the confrontation in a manner commensurate with the scale of the challenge and any emergency.”

“The naval battle against the Israeli enemy, following its violation of the ceasefire agreement in Gaza, is not like before,” Atifi said.

Some pundits have pointed out that this is really about defending Israel, in violation of ‘America first’ – also as Congress is missing in action.

This has been the constant pattern of US military adventurism in the Middle East since 2001 and 2003: whether it’s the Taliban of Afghanistan, or the Iraq insurgency, or the chaos of Syria – the full blunt force of Pentagon technology and power has struggled in guerilla-style conflicts where there is no well-defined ‘front’. And all the while the bodies pile up on both sides, often creating a politically costly environment for Western leaders back home.

* * *

Middle East war correspondent Elijah Magnier has a similar take, writing the following…

Throughout history, Yemen has defeated all foreign occupiers, earning a reputation as a “graveyard of invaders. Every major empire and military force that attempted to dominate Yemen has ultimately been forced to retreat.

US President Donald Trump has declared his intention to “destroy” Ansar Allah (Houthis) in Yemen, resuming intense bombing campaigns across several Yemeni provinces. This marks a significant escalation in the ongoing conflict, as the US seeks to directly target Yemen’s resistance movement, which has remained defiant despite years of war, blockades, and foreign intervention.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 03/19/2025 – 15:45

Fed Holds Rates, Signals QT Taper; Blames Trump ‘Uncertainty’ For Stagflationary Outlook

Fed Holds Rates, Signals QT Taper; Blames Trump ‘Uncertainty’ For Stagflationary Outlook

Summary (via BBG):

  • The Fed left interest rates unchanged in a range of 4.25%-4.50%, as expected. The big news was the downward revisions to growth forecasts and the upward revisions to inflation and unemployment projections (stagflationary). Policymakers now see much higher risks to their economic projections and also see higher uncertainty about the path of the economy.

  • In his press conference, Powell acknowledged that tariffs are already impacting the economy and have factored into economic forecasts. In fact, he said that the Fed has also factored in Reciprocal tariffs! Notably, and much to the anger of the left-leaning press corps, he said the base case remains for tariffs to have a transitory impact on inflation, but there’s a lot of uncertainty about that. Powell repeatedly dismissed notions that long-term inflation expectations were rising and added that the Fed doesn’t want to “get ahead” of surveys showing lower consumer sentiment. So far, he argued, the hard data is solid.

  • While the dot plot continued to show that policymakers expect two interest rate reductions this year, projections shifted to a significantly more hawkish stance compared with December’s forecasts. Eight participants now see just one or no cuts at all this year, and only two see three cuts.

  • QT Tapering: the Fed will slow the pace of runoff of its securities holdings beginning next month by cutting the monthly cap on Treasury securities redemption to $5 billion from $25 billion. It was a decision with broad support, Powell said, noting that participants preferred doing that to stopping quantitative tightening altogether. In other words, most believe the liquidity picture is starting to get challenging. Governor Chris Waller was the only one who dissented from the balance-sheet decision but supported the decision to hold rates steady.

  • Stocks and Treasuries rallied amid some relief that while the Fed boosted its inflation forecast, policymakers retained an expectation for rate cuts later this year. The S&P 500 was up 1.3% as of 3:33 p.m. in New York, heading for the best Fed day since 2022. Two-year yields were down 6 basis points,

The Fed is firmly in wait-and-see mode.

  • Statement: hawkish
  • Economic projections: mixed (stagflationary)
  • Dots: hawkish
  • QT taper: dovish

It’s interesting that the slowdown in QT is so sharp – from $25 billion down to $5 billion a month for the Fed’s Treasuries holdings. 

Remember that it was $60 billion a month before the first slowdown.

Why not just cut it to zero?

Maybe the Fed wanted to send a signal that QT is still in place; it still wants to work down its balance sheet — and perhaps ramp the pace back up after the federal debt-limit standoff is over.

UBS sees a glimpse of a Powell Put:

Dare anyone say “Fed put”. 

Perhaps not quite, but the Fed’s message is consistent with its work from September 2018 – that reacting to the inflationary consequences of tariffs only makes the growth hit worse than it needs be.

Not quite the “Fed put” the markets have been hoping for, but in the scheme of things, the outcome of the Fed is a little more dovish than the market had expected. 

The Fed shrugging off the inflationary signals from its models and instead preferring to line the dot plot up with the growth deterioration.

Amid the uncertainties, the distribution of the dots for this year has actually narrowed.

*  *  *

Since the last FOMC meeting, on Jan 29th, a lot has changed…

From an economic perspective, growth expectations have plunged and inflation prints have been wildly noisy…

Source: Bloomberg

… (especially the idiotically partisan UMich inflation expectations)…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold has been the dramatic winner since the last FOMC meeting while oil and stocks have been clubbed like a baby seal. Bonds are bid but the dollar has been dumped…

Source: Bloomberg

Interestingly, as stocks have tumbled in the last two weeks, so have rate-cut expectations, back more in line with where they were after the last FOMC meeting (just 56bps now, from almost 100bps two weeks ago!)…

Source: Bloomberg

On the bright side, mortgage rates have plunged since the last FOMC meeting…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, before everything goes just a little bit turbo, we note that the market is currently significantly more dovish than The Fed’s dots this year and dramatically more hawkish in 2027…

Source: Bloomberg

Rates are expected to be a nothingburger today.

So will today’s fresh Dot-Plot adjust to the market?

More importantly, what will The Fed do about its QT program?

Key Headlines:

As expected, no change in rates:

  • *FED HOLDS BENCHMARK RATE IN 4.25%-4.50% TARGET RANGE

But, the economic projections are not pretty:

  • *FED SHARPLY REDUCES 2025 GROWTH PROJECTION, MARKS UP INFLATION

  • Fed cuts year-end GDP forecast from 2.1% to 1.7%

  • Fed raises year-end core PCE forecast from 2.5% to 2.8%

  • Fed raises year-end unemployment forecast from 4.3% to 4.4%

One of the fed members is very bearish on GDP growth…

Perhaps of most note:

Fed removes language that “risks to inflation and employment are roughly in balance”

Trump’s fault:

  • *FED SAYS UNCERTAINTY AROUND ECONOMIC OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED

The median of the rate cut forecasts are unchanged from December (still at a two cut median)…

…but the dovish tails all shifted hawkishly…

  • four for 0 cuts in 2025 (up from just 1 in Dec)

  • four for 1 cut (up from 3 in Dec)

  • nine for 2 cuts now (down from 10 in Dec)

  • only two for 3 cuts (down from 3 in Dec)

  • and none of the FOMC members see 4 cuts in 2025 (down from 1 in Dec)

And finally, the QT Taper is on…

  • *FED TO SLOW BALANCE-SHEET RUNOFF STARTING APRIL 1

Notably Fed’s Waller dissents because while he supported no change for the federal funds target range but preferred to continue the current pace of decline in securities holdings.

Read the full redline of the FOMC statement below:

Click to find out…

Tyler Durden
Wed, 03/19/2025 – 15:40

Purdue Pharma Files New Bankruptcy Plan For $7.4 Billion Opioid Settlement

Purdue Pharma Files New Bankruptcy Plan For $7.4 Billion Opioid Settlement

Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times,

Drugmaker Purdue Pharma filed a new bankruptcy plan on Tuesday, marking a major step towards finalizing a proposed opioid settlement of $7.4 billion.

The maker of the powerful semi-synthetic opioid oxycodone—also marketed as OxyContin and by other names—filed a Chapter 11 reorganization plan and related disclosure statement with the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of New York.

According to a statement announcing the proposal, a new public benefit company “100 percent devoted to improving the lives of Americans,” would be created after Purdue is dissolved, and its assets transferred to the new company.

The Sackler family, which previously owned Purdue Pharma, would “have no ownership interest or role with the new company,” according to the statement, which noted family members have had no involvement in Purdue since the end of 2018.

The new company would have a core mission to abate the opioid crisis and improve public health, including by developing and distributing lifesaving opioid use disorder and overdose rescue medicines for no profit, the statement said.

It would also be run by a board appointed by state governments, the statement added.

Assuming full creditor participation, the plan would see the Sacklers pay out approximately $6.5 billion in installments over the next 15 years—subject to certain reserves—to states, local governments, and individuals harmed by the crisis.

They would pay $1.5 billion on the day the reorganization plan becomes effective and Purdue would contribute 100 percent of its assets, “with an expected $900 million in cash available for distribution on the day of emergence,” according to the statement.

Purdue said it expects widespread creditor support for the deal.

According to the statement, the latest plan “is the only opioid settlement to date that meaningfully compensates individual victims” and, assuming full participation, “individual victims will receive more than $850 million, subject to certain reserves.”

A court hearing to approve the disclosure statement is currently expected to take place in May, according to the statement.

Purdue Says Deal Is ‘Major Milestone’

“We and our creditors have worked tirelessly in mediation to build consensus and negotiate a settlement that will increase the total value provided to victims and communities, put billions of dollars to work on day one, and serve the public good,” Purdue Board Chairman Steve Miller said in the statement. “I sincerely thank our stakeholders for their dedication and collaboration, and I look forward to having the plan confirmed and consummated as quickly as possible.”

The bankruptcy filing comes after Purdue and members of the Sackler family reached a $7.4 billion deal with a bipartisan coalition of states in January to settle long-running litigation over their alleged role in creating the opioid crisis.

The deal marked the nation’s largest settlement to date with individuals allegedly responsible for contributing to the opioid crisis.

In a statement announcing the agreement, New York Attorney General Letitia James said Purdue, under the Sacklers’ leadership, “invented, manufactured, and aggressively marketed opioid products for decades, fueling waves of addiction and overdose deaths across the country.”

The money from the deal would be used to fund communities across the country over the next 15 years to support opioid addiction treatment, prevention, and recovery programs, James said.

That deal came after the U.S. Supreme Court in June 2024 rejected Purdue’s proposed $6 billion bankruptcy settlement that was initially put forward in 2019, ruling that the company could not receive sweeping civil immunity from opioid lawsuits.

The Sacklers contributed money to Purdue’s bankruptcy settlement but did not file for bankruptcy themselves.

Purdue’s new bankruptcy plan responds to that ruling by allowing creditors to opt into the settlement if they wish to be paid. Those who choose not to join the settlement are free to pursue lawsuits against the Sacklers, who have denied any wrongdoing.

“Following the 2024 Supreme Court ruling, we doubled down on our commitment to work with our creditors to design a new Plan that delivers unprecedented value to those affected by the opioid crisis,” said Miller. “Today’s filing is a major milestone in that effort.”

Tyler Durden
Wed, 03/19/2025 – 15:25

AG Bondi Declares “Swarm Of Violent Attacks” On Tesla As Domestic Terrorism

AG Bondi Declares “Swarm Of Violent Attacks” On Tesla As Domestic Terrorism

Update:

US Attorney General Pam Bondi released a statement overnight, calling the “violent attacks” on Tesla showrooms, service centers, Supercharger networks, and vehicles “nothing short of domestic terrorism.” 

“The swarm of violent attacks on Tesla property is nothing short of domestic terrorism. The Department of Justice has already charged several perpetrators with that in mind, including in cases that involve charges with five-year mandatory minimum sentences,” Bondi stated in a press release.

She continued: “We will continue investigations that impose severe consequences on those involved in these attacks, including those operating behind the scenes to coordinate and fund these crimes.”

The latest domestic terrorism attack on Tesla occurred at a service center in Las Vegas early Tuesday morning. Below, we provide readers with dramatic footage (previous post), along with images of the crime scene—featuring one key indication suggesting far-left groups were behind the arson attack.

The very fact that the Democrats and their leftist groups are attacking an American company because they are displeased with Elon Musk’s DOGE effort to reform the bloated and corrupt federal government—captured by unelected Deep Staters—shows that the so-called party of ‘love’ is in a massive crisis. Cornered and desperate, Democrats have now resorted to violence.

Those are terrible optics, Democrats. Terrible optics. 

Violence is never the answer, yet here we are... 

Musk on Sean Hannity…

Why haven’t Democrats condemned the terror attacks? 

 

*   *   * 

Far-left violence targeting Tesla dealerships, Supercharging networks, and individual Teslas continued early Tuesday morning, with multiple vehicles set on fire at a Tesla service center in Las Vegas. 

Local media outlet KLAS reported the Tesla Collision Center in the 6000 block of Badura Avenue, near Jones Boulevard and the 215 Beltway, had several vehicles set on fire in the parking lot by an individual around 0245 local time.

“LVMPD Communications received information that an individual had set several vehicles on fire in the parking lot and caused damage to the property,” Las Vegas police said. 

FBI spokeswoman Sandy Breault for the Las Vegas field office told reporters that agents are on the scene and investigating the fire. 

One citizen journalist posted images from the crime scene, showing doors of the Tesla building spray painted with the message: “Resist.” 

… and there’s the political motive. 

President Trump has previously stated that leftist attacks on Tesla will be labeled domestic terrorism, and perpetrators will “go through hell.” … 

Latest incidents:

Musk called it “extreme domestic terrorism…“

Leftist activists are targeting the American company with arson attacks at showroom locations and Supercharging networks, while deranged lone-wolf liberals are vandalizing Teslas in parking lots, parking garages, and on city streets—driven by rage—all because the Trump administration and Elon Musk’s DOGE are eliminating Deep State fraud and waste. 

This is all a terrible look for Democrats as they defend the corrupt status quo and their unhinged voters attack an American company. The Justice Department might want to investigate if there is any foreign influence in these attacks against the American company. 

Sequoia partner Shaun Maguire stated on X, “this is all anarchoterrorism.” 

*  *  *

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Tyler Durden
Wed, 03/19/2025 – 12:31

Tesla Receives First Permit For California Robotaxis; Cantor Upgrades Rating To “Overweight”  

Tesla Receives First Permit For California Robotaxis; Cantor Upgrades Rating To “Overweight”  

According to a Bloomberg report, Tesla has secured the first of several approvals from California regulators to launch its long-anticipated robotaxi service, laying the groundwork for eventual autonomous operations for the mass public. This development comes more than a month after Tesla designer Franz von Holzhausen announced that Cybercabs would begin rolling out in Austin, Texas, in June.

The California Public Utilities Commission confirmed in an email statement on Tuesday that Tesla was approved for a transportation charter-party carrier permit. This means robotaxis can only ferry employees on a prearranged basis, while the path to a fully operational robotaxi service for the general public remains out on a longer timeline and additional permits. 

Additional color via Bloomberg:

Bloomberg reported last month that Tesla had applied for the permit as it works to launch a promised ride-hailing business, opening a new revenue stream and putting it in competition with the likes of Uber Technologies Inc., Lyft Inc. and Waymo. Musk has said Tesla would roll out driverless ride- hailing in Austin in June and aimed to offer it in California by the end of the year, without offering specific details.

Separately, Tesla shares are trading higher in the early cash session after analysts at Cantor Fitzgerald upgraded their rating to ‘Overweight’ (from Neutral). The upgrade comes after Tesla shares have plunged 43% year-to-date (as of Tuesday’s close) amid concerns over sliding vehicle delivery forecasts for the first quarter.

As well as mounting backlash from deranged Democrats:

However… 

Back to Cantor analyst Andres Sheppard’s note earlier. He said, “The recent selloff represents an attractive entry point for investors,” adding that Cantor is bullish on upcoming autonomous taxi-hailing service in Texas. 

Sheppard also referenced a Bloomberg report from November detailing discussions within then-President-elect Donald Trump’s transition team about establishing a federal framework for self-driving vehicles. He stated that such a framework would be “a major beneficiary” for Tesla’s FSD.

However, Sheppard warned that removing tax credits for EV purchases and worsening trade wars could hamper some of Tesla’s growth outlook. 

“We also expect a mild 1Q, driven by lower demand in Europe and increased competition in China, plus some negative sentiment from Elon’s polarizing politics,” Sheppard wrote.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 03/19/2025 – 12:25