One month ago, when we first realized just how much fat Elon Musk’s DOGE was slashing from the government money-laundering apparatus, we made a controversial (at the time) observation: so much (deep state laundered) money was about to come out of the economy, the US would enter a recession, first in Washington DC (something which Michael Hartnett and others have since confirmed) and then across the US.

Here’s the bigger play at hand, and why there is only token pushback to DOGE.

You cut enough spending – even if it’s all grift and fraud – you eventually get a recession, guaranteed. That’s all Congress is waiting for cause then they use the “emergency” to vote through a far…

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) February 8, 2025

We were surprised at how much pushback we got, especially from supporters of Trump. But this wasn’t meant to be a judgment call against the new administration which had only been in power for a few weeks. If anything, we had explained long ago that the only reason the US economy hadn’t collapsed into a recession long ago is because of Biden’s unprecedented debt issuance spree which we first described in the summer of 2003 (see “Here Is The $1 Trillion “Stealth Stimulus” Behind Bidenomics“), and which had sent US debt soaring by $1 trillion every 100 days.

But now that particular debt party appears to be ending.

Understandably, defusing this debt time-bomb is precisely what Elon Musk has undertaken, and the process of undoing all the catastrophic trends that culminated under the Biden administration would inevitably result in a recession (just as allowing the debt pile up to continue its record meltup was the only thing that delayed the inevitable economic slowdown).

Still, our observation came at a time when the “US exceptionalism” trade was still all the rage if only for a few more days, and thus few were willing to accept it. 

Then little by little sentiment turned, and just a few weeks later, Wall Street was full of reports such as this one from Mizuho’s Dominik Konstam (available to pro subs)”discovering” what we had said weeks earlier, namely that the efforts of DOGE would spark a new recession, first in the government and then everywhere else.

This was quickly followed by formerly euphorically bullish Wall Street firms such as Goldman (full report here)…

… and Morgan Stanley (full report here), both slashing their GDP outlooks.

So slowly but surely, Wall Street admitted we were right. But what about the administration: would Trump be surprised to learn that Musk’s austerity push plus the admin’s tariff policies would lead to a recession? We wondered and then we start paying closer attention to what Trump and his closest lieutenants were saying.

First, there was Trump’s Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent who (correctly) explained last week on Face the Nation how the media was misleading people that the economy was doing just great under Biden, and how the mood suddenly changed when Trump came in power. His point, of course, is that Trump has not been nowhere near long enough in power to slam the economy himself.

SEC. BESSENT: “What I find interesting is, for the past year & a half, & during the campaign, most of the media said, ‘Oh, the economy is great. It’s just a vibecession.’ Now that President Trump’s in office, there’s an ‘economic problem.'”

“It took 4 years to get us here.… pic.twitter.com/ubVwhjSCQA

— Breaking911 (@Breaking911) March 2, 2025

Some days later Bessent also explained why the economy had been doing so “great” during Biden’s last years – he basically echoed what we said two years ago in “Here Is The $1 Trillion “Stealth Stimulus” Behind Bidenomics“, in which we explained that the only reason the US economy hadn’t collapsed is because the government was issuing $1 trillion in debt every 100 days, or as Bessent put it, “the market and the economy have become hooked, become addicted, to excessive government spending and there’s going to be a detox period.”

Scott Bessent on Squawk Box:

“Look, there is going to be a natural adjustment as we move away from public spending to private spending. The market and the economy have become hooked, become addicted, to excessive government spending and there’s going to be a detox period.” pic.twitter.com/rFI0N4vylD

— DOGE NEWS- Department of Government Efficiency (@realdogeusa) March 8, 2025

That also explains why, to avoid a technical recession, Trump’s Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told Fox News the Trump admin was considering separating government spending from GDP reports, in response to questions – first posed here – about whether the spending cuts pushed by Elon Musk’s DOGE could possibly cause an economic downturn: “You know that governments historically have messed with GDP,” Lutnick said on Fox News Channel’s Sunday Morning Futures. “They count government spending as part of GDP. So I’m going to separate those two and make it transparent.”

Lutnick’s remarks echoed Musk’s arguments on X that government spending doesn’t create value for the economy: “A more accurate measure of GDP would exclude government spending,” Musk wrote on X. “Otherwise, you can scale GDP artificially high by spending money on things that don’t make people’s lives better.”

Lutnick’s take was a bit more nuanced but leaned in the same direction saying “if the government buys a tank, that’s GDP. But paying 1,000 people to think about buying a tank is not GDP. That is wasted inefficiency, wasted money. And cutting that, while it shows in GDP, we’re going to get rid of that.”

And then there was Trump himself who during his speech to Congress, issued the most explicit warning yet, saying to expect “a little disturbance” on tariffs, echoing what he said back in February when the president posted (in all caps) on his Truth Social account that “THIS WILL BE THE GOLDEN AGE OF AMERICA! WILL THERE BE SOME PAIN? YES, MAYBE (AND MAYBE NOT!)” adding “WE WILL MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN, AND IT WILL ALL BE WORTH THE PRICE THAT MUST BE PAID.” 

But the clearest indication that Trump is now eager to push the US economy into a recession – one which he can correctly blame on Biden’s drunken-sailor spending ways – and that the “Trump put” is now a “call”, came from the president himself when in another interview over the weekend with Maria Bartiromo, the president was oddly defensive, and saying “I hate to predict things like that,” when asked if he expected a recession this year. “There is a period of transition, because what we’re doing is very big. We’re bringing wealth back to America. That’s a big thing. And there are always periods of — it takes a little time. It takes a little time. But I think it should be great for us. I mean, I think it should be great.”

As for stocks, don’t expect Trump to jump in and seek a bailout: “There could be a little disruption. You can’t really watch the stock market. If you look at China, they have a 100-year perspective… we go by quarters. What we’re doing is building a foundation for the future.”

Bartiromo: Are you expecting a recession this year?

Trump: There is a period of transition because what we’re doing is very big. pic.twitter.com/VY8PozpVrk

— Acyn (@Acyn) March 9, 2025

And if that wasn’t clear enough, his Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent was about as explicit as possible predicting that the US is headed for a “detox period” and warning ”could we be seeing that this economy that we inherited starting to roll a bit? Sure.” He also ruled out policy shifts to prop up the market, confirming that at least for now, the Trump put is dead and buried.

BESSENT: “Look, there is going to be a natural adjustment as we move away from public spending to private spending. The market and the economy have become hooked, become addicted, to excessive government spending and there’s going to be a detox period.”

pic.twitter.com/tBWbQeo41E

— Election Wizard (@ElectionWiz) March 8, 2025

Commenting on these pre-recessionary soundbites, Goldman’s head of Delta One trading Rich Privorotsky said that “while commendable to attempt to address the long term imbalances of debt sustainability and spending (which accelerated during covid) it’s hard to see how these won’t have short term economic implications” effectively echoing what we said a month ago.

Rabobank was even more explicit when it said that “Trump hasn’t mentioned stocks so far, and the word from D.C. is their focus is on Main Street, not Wall Street, with willingness to tolerate “disturbance” for at least the next six to eight months, while blaming it on Biden, in order to get a framework in place that allows for growth based on what Trump thinks GDP is for…”

But it was perhaps Nomura’s Charlie McElligott who laid it out best saying the US is now underoing a clear “Phase Shift”, one which will be very painful (full note available to pro subs in the usual place):

DON’T JUST TAKE MY WORD FOR IT—THEY’RE TELLING YOU THE PLAYBOOK, AND THE “PHASE SHIFT” WILL BE THE PAINFUL PART AS WE “ENGINEER A RECESSION”:

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent at the NY Economic Club yday going even harder on the “Public to Private” and “Wall St >> Main St” U.S. Growth- and Wealth Inequality- reset themes (among other high quality insights into everything from sanctions to the role of banks and regulation…but that’s for another time):

POTUS has begun an “…aggressive campaign to rebalance the international economic system.” (tariffs, duh…)

“Access to cheap goods in not the essence of the American Dream…The American Dream is rooted in the concept that any citizen can achieve prosperity, upward mobility, and economic security.  For too long, the designers of multilateral trade deals have lost sight of this.” (inflation risks are just not a priority or are overstated, once we hit you with the growth drag)

And the big one on the RESET from Growth dependency upon Govt Deficit Spending, and refocusing into Private Sector stim (Taxes and Dereg): “The first time I went to see President Trump he looked at me and said ‘How do we get this debt and deficit down without killing the economy?’…I’ve been thinking about this for 18 months and [the way to do it is] the transition from a public sector to private sector [driven economy]…25 percent of GDP goes through [Washington DC] Area code 202.”

And further signal of intent from Bessent this a.m. on CNBC…like, can we make this any clearer, people?!:

• BESSENT: WE COULD SEE INHERITED ECONOMY STARTING TO ROLL A BIT
• BESSENT: THERE’S GOING TO BE A DE-TOX PERIOD FOR THE ECONOMY
• BESSENT: THERE’S NO TRUMP PUT, BUT THERE’S TRUMP CALL UPSIDE

The issue is this: When running this Govt “FISCAL CONTRACTION” and DOGE attack on awful “spending” which has been conditioned into both parties for decades in order to reduce Govt expenditures meaningfully (think flow over stock, change of change or impulse…not absolute levels)—but at the same time that global trade “rebalancing” means “Tariff Wars” with your largest trading partners—there is simply no way to maintain current real GDP growth, let alone move it higher in the near-term…i.e. it’s going LOWER

AND THAT’S THE POINT: They understand this “Phase Shift” means pain, and that’s with intent to do it FAST and EARLY into his term, because you need to remove the sources of excess economic stimulation through “FISCAL CONTRACTION,” which then simultaneously will act to drain real economic demand via “NEGATIVE WEALTH EFFECT,” as Markets acknowledge the lower growth implications

This intentional growth drag and negative wealth effect—the “ENGINEERING A RECESSION” thesis—will act as a DISINFLATIONARY IMPULSE which then facilitates the shift into Phase 2, which is where thanks to the disinflation, you can then finally act to stimulate the PRIVATE SECTOR through EASIER MONPOL via Fed Cuts to “reduce the cost of money”….and then further escalate into Tax Cuts and MASS Deregulation

Yet as the will be the case in our debt-addled existence, enabled by both the perpetual deficit spending Politicians and Central Bankers who crossed the precipice into the “Moral Hazard” zone of the “QE Trap”—we, societally, have an EXTREMELY LOW TOLERANCE FOR PAIN…

So can the voting public, politicians, and central bankers ride out this consequences of this well-intended “rebalancing act,” or will the tantrums for MOAR overwhelm and force a “bending of the knee” back to the unsustainable status-quo Govt deficit spending economic dependency?  

It will come down to the speed by which the Trump Admin’s intentional “CONTROLLED DEMOLITION” double-whammy “Growth Drag” and “Negative Wealth Effect” can lead to disinflationary impulse which allows for the EASING thereafter…otherwise it seems that Market forces are happy to “find the clearing level” on the Trump Put, which remains still-deeper Out-of-the-Money in Equities

Putting it all together, the emerging picture is clear: what we said a month ago was spot on, and while perhaps not actively pushing the US into a recession, Trump and Bessent certainly would welcome it (especially with the midterm elections fast approaching), knowing they still have the benefit of a few months in which to blame the Biden regime and its staggering debt incurrence, which as we first explained had kept the economy afloat for so long…

First reported here last July, back than it was – drumroll – a conspiracy theory.

Here Is The $1 Trillion “Stealth Stimulus” Behind Bidenomicshttps://t.co/OqgQIgN6MR

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 14, 2024

…. and once the economy and markets have had their reset, most likely with the benefit of another huge fiscal stimulus from Congress which will have no choice but to step in once there is a recession, the economy and markets will levitate straight into the Nov 2026 midterms, which will cements the Republican grip on power even more, even if it means some – rather acute – pain in the immediate future.

A major maritime disaster unfolded in the North Sea off the coast of East Yorkshire on Monday when a container ship collided with a tanker transporting jet fuel. 

According to vessel tracking website MarineTraffic:

This morning, the oil tanker STENA IMMACULATE and the container ship SOLONG were involved in a collision in the North Sea.

MarineTraffic data shows that the incident occurred at approximately 09:48 UTC.

The 183-metre-long oil tanker was anchored off Immingham when it was struck by the 140-metre-long container ship, which was en route to Rotterdam. Reports indicate that a fire broke out on STENA IMMACULATE, with rescue helicopters dispatched to the scene. Here’s a playback of the vessel’s movements before and after the incident.

This morning, the oil tanker STENA IMMACULATE and the container ship SOLONG were involved in a collision in the North Sea.

MarineTraffic data shows that the incident occurred at approximately 09:48 UTC. The 183-metre-long oil tanker was anchored off Immingham when it was struck… pic.twitter.com/MYOLsJQsvS

— MarineTraffic (@MarineTraffic) March 10, 2025

Footage of the incident area posted on X shows the US-registered oil tanker, the Stena Immaculate, and Portugal-registered Solong both on fire… 

BREAKING:

Major maritime disaster off the coast of Hull, England after a collision between a cargo ship and an oil tanker.

The fire can be seen from miles away pic.twitter.com/WiaX0rUHGR

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) March 10, 2025

🔴 A US-registered oil tanker, the Stena Immaculate, and a Portuguese-flagged container ship named Solong collided in the North Sea, the Coastguard said

Follow the latest updates ⬇️https://t.co/zvLq6KV1Ky pic.twitter.com/RDbbQRyhQp

— The Telegraph (@Telegraph) March 10, 2025

The U.S-flagged oil tanker, M/T Stena Immaculate was struck this morning by the Portuguese-flagged cargo vessel, M/V Solong while at anchor off the coast of the U.K. in the North Sea, resulting in a massive fire which has now engulfed the Stena Immaculate. The crew of the vessel… pic.twitter.com/zq4iPIdNx5

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) March 10, 2025

Listen to the coast guard warning.

Listen to the coastguard warning that jet A1 fuel is on fire after an oil tanker and cargo vessel collide in the North Sea 🔥

Source: Metro pic.twitter.com/3Du2HGTY4J

— Volcaholic 🌋 (@volcaholic1) March 10, 2025

*Developing… 

*   *   *

Pick up a bucket of HEIRLOOM SEEDS (4,500 seeds spanning 39 varieties) from ZH Store! 

Remix News reports that Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski stated on the X platform that it is Poland that pays for Starlinks for Ukraine, to which SpaceX CEO Elon Musk replied: “Be quiet, small man.”

“Starlinks for Ukraine are paid for by the Polish Digitization Ministry at the cost of about $50 million per year. The ethics of threatening the victim of aggression apart, if SpaceX proves to be an unreliable provider we will be forced to look for other suppliers,” wrote Sikorski.

“Be quiet, small man. You pay a tiny fraction of the cost. And there is no substitute for Starlink,” replied. 

Musk also claimed he never threatened to cut Ukraine off from his satellite network, even if he disagreed with the war continuing. 

Starlinks for Ukraine are paid for by the Polish Digitization Ministry at the cost of about $50 million per year.
The ethics of threatening the victim of aggression apart, if SpaceX proves to be an unreliable provider we will be forced to look for other suppliers. https://t.co/WaJWCklgPE

— Radosław Sikorski 🇵🇱🇪🇺 (@sikorskiradek) March 9, 2025

Secretary of State Marco Rubio entered the spat by posting a rebuke to Sikorski’s post, saying he was “making things up.”

“No one has made any threats about cutting Ukraine off from Starlink,” he posted, adding, “And say thank you because without Starlink Ukraine would have lost this war long ago and Russians would be on the border with Poland right now.”

Just making things up.
No one has made any threats about cutting Ukraine off from Starlink

And say thank you because
without Starlink Ukraine would have lost this war long ago and Russians would be on the border with Poland right now https://t.co/ImeiHFgaaw

— Marco Rubio (@marcorubio) March 9, 2025

Musk says that Starlink will “never” shut off its terminals in Ukraine.

Russian forces have so far been unable to jam the satellite communications network, making it vital for Ukraine’s operations.

“To be extremely clear, no matter how much I disagree with the Ukraine policy, Starlink will never turn off its terminals,” Musk wrote on X.

“We would never do such a thing or use it as a bargaining chip,” he added.

As Andrew Korybko explains, Sikorski behaved undiplomatically by breathing life into those rumors when he should have first checked with Rubio before publicly addressing them, thus suggesting that he either reacted emotionally without thinking this through or he deliberately wanted to create a scandal. He, Tusk, and their ilk previously made defamatory statements about Trump prior to last year’s election by smearing him as a “proto-fascist” and even a “Russian spy”, which were documented here and analyzed here.

It therefore can’t be ruled out that Sikorski did indeed intend to discredit Trump’s pragmatic approach to Ukraine, particularly his decision to cut off its military and intelligence aid, by taking for granted that the rumors about Musk plotting to do the same with Starlink were true and publicly reacting accordingly. His motivation might have been to signal to Poland’s peers with whom it’s competing for leadership of post-conflict Europe that the ruling liberal-globalist coalition will stand up to the US in support of Ukraine.

Sikorski and Tusk, who are respectively Anglophiles and Germanophiles, prioritize relations with the UK and the German-led EU over their country’s strategic partnership with the US. This is in spite of Poland being poised to become the US’ top partner in Europe if it plays its cards right, which is still possible with the ruling liberal-globalists even if they win May’s presidential election but much more likely if the conservative or populist candidate wins instead. This insight places Sikorski’s post into context.

He arguably wanted to make it seem like the US is unilaterally reneging on a commercial contract of national security significance for Ukraine as a favor to Russia, thus casting more doubts about its reliability as an ally and consequently worsening the transatlantic rift. Musk and Rubio therefore swiftly put Sikorski in his place so as to deter other Foreign Ministers from doing anything similar in the future with the unfriendly aim of further worsening the US’ already tense ties with the EU and NATO.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced on X early Monday that, following a six-week review, the United States Agency for International Development (USAID)—a rogue agency captured by the Deep State—will see most of its programs canceled, and the State Department will oversee the remaining programs still in operation. 

“The 5200 contracts that are now cancelled spent tens of billions of dollars in ways that did not serve, (and in some cases even harmed), the core national interests of the United States,” Rubio said.

He continued, “In consultation with Congress, we intend for the remaining 18% of programs we are keeping (approximately 1000) to now be administered more effectively under the State Department.” 

Rubio thanked Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency for this “overdue and historic reform” of USAID, which had become notorious for inefficiencies and bloated bureaucracies, wasting tens of billions of dollars of taxpayer funds on programs that undermine American interests, such as funding radical, left-wing programs around the world.

After a 6 week review we are officially cancelling 83% of the programs at USAID.

The 5200 contracts that are now cancelled spent tens of billions of dollars in ways that did not serve, (and in some cases even harmed), the core national interests of the United States.

In…

— Marco Rubio (@marcorubio) March 10, 2025

This is a political catastrophe for Democrats and Rhinos. USAID was the Deep State’s primary tool for advancing its far-left agenda and served as a slush fund for a vast network of NGOs—but that era is now over. 

Latest USAID reporting:

• “I Am Stunned” – SCOTUS Dissenters Rage As ‘Liberals’ Unfreeze $2BN USAID Foreign-Aid Payments

• Waste Of The Day: Congo Splurged At Davos On USAID Dime

• USAID Sent Millions To Ukraine In Secret Slush Funds, Investigators Found

• Did Neutering Of USAID Push Sesame Street’s Nonprofit Into Turmoil

• More USAID Fraud? Billions Of US Tax Dollars Are Missing From Haiti Relief Projects

Additional color:

• DOGE Vs USAID: “A Remarkable And Definite Victory”

• The Real Victims Of USAID’s Mismanagement

• How USAID And Its $50 Billion Budget Became A Target For Reform

• Matt Taibbi’s Opening Statement To Congress About USAID, Free Speech, And The ‘Censorship Machine

• USAID Employees Placed On Leave Worldwide

The move by Rubio has been well telegraphed…

USAID Absorbed Into State Department Under Rubio After DOGE Crusade https://t.co/N49frMVsIN

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) February 3, 2025

Moving forward, America’s interests will be put first when deciding how to allocate aid (otherwise known as statecraft) to foreign countries via the State Department. 

GREAT WORK, @SecRubio: Rubio Cuts $60+ Billion In Waste From State Department, USAID https://t.co/qC5FnuNW3l

— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) March 9, 2025

The era of US taxpayers funding far-left NGOs worldwide that some oppose freedom of speech, capitalism, Christianity, nuclear family, and Western values has come to an end.

Viewers of MSNBC and CNN have recently noticed more frequent appearances by Reps. Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas) and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-New York). With the Democratic Party lacking clear leadership in a rudderless motion—still confused about how many genders—its strategists are testing the waters to determine which unhinged and crazed progressive lawmaker will be the party’s new face. 

“I have heard from Democratic operatives is that Crockett and Ocasio-Cortez are trying to fill the vacuum created by Harris’s loss, the absence of a clear 2028 frontrunner and a coherent agenda,” Douglas MacKinnon, a former White House and Pentagon official, recently penned in an op-ed featured in The Hill. 

Crockett’s latest appearance on far-left conspiracy network MSNBC resulted in a Community Note on X after she claimed: “It is not a criminal violation to enter the country illegally… it’s not a crime.”

“It is not a criminal violation to enter the country illegally… It’s not a crime.” – Rep Jasmine Crockett pic.twitter.com/9tYYEvowlZ

— Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) March 9, 2025

We’re sure US Border Czar Tom Homan will have some nice words for Crockett next week, whose misinformation and disinformation about immigration laws are viewed as a crock of shit.

Utah Sen. Mike Lee quickly challenged Crockett’s disinformation: 

Under federal law, entering the US illegally is a crime punishable by imprisonment (See 8 U.S.C. § 1325). Unlawful entry can lead to both criminal and civil penalties.

It is indeed a crime. pic.twitter.com/n9h9NCLuL2

— Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) March 9, 2025

So, more power to the Democratic Party, funded by rogue leftist billionaires that want to destroy America. Suppose the left’s answer to a new leader is Crockett —or AOC, a self-proclaimed socialist. The more these unhinged liberals speak, the more their popularity wanes, as the shifting Overton Window toward the center-right ushers in a new era of common sense politics, one where a woman can be clearly defined, borders are protected, and law and order upheld across the land.

MacKinnon asked in his op-ed: Are AOC and Jasmine Crockett sabotaging Democrats’ 2028 chances?

Rep Jasmine Crockett shares a clip portraying her and AOC physically beating up Republicans pic.twitter.com/U6pya2vxyh

— Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) March 9, 2025

* * * 

Hmm.

🇺🇸 https://t.co/Urx56009ey

— Sholdon Daniels For Congress (@SholdonDaniels) March 8, 2025

* * *

You can support ZeroHedge with the purchase of a high-quality, sharp, ZeroHedge Multitool.

Via RF/ERL,

• Greenland’s upcoming elections have gained global attention after former U.S. President Donald Trump expressed interest in acquiring the territory.

• While most Greenlanders favor independence, they rely heavily on Denmark for economic support.

• Three of the five political parties support independence, but the path to full sovereignty requires a deal with Denmark, a Greenland-wide referendum, and approval from the Danish parliament.

Normally the elections for the 31-member Inatsisartut, the parliament of Greenland, would get scant attention. 

The world’s biggest island, with a population of just 60,000, is rarely in the news.

That changed in January, when incoming US President Donald Trump expressed an interest in taking control of the strategically located and resource-rich territory.

The move sent shockwaves throughout Europe, notably for fellow NATO ally Denmark, to which Greenland in fact belongs. 

(While Copenhagen oversees foreign and monetary policy, Greenlanders control most domestic issues.)

That has meant all eyes will now be on the March 11 elections, called by Greenland’s prime minister, Mute Egede, after Trump’s pronouncements. 

And while regular domestic issues are part of the election campaign, the overriding issue is clear: Go American, stay Danish, or aim for independence?

To be clear, most Greenlanders don’t want to become American, and none of the five parties in parliament is advocating for it. Along with Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, Egede has made clear that Greenland — which is an autonomous territory in the Kingdom of Denmark — is not for sale and that only Greenlanders can decide its future. 

Interestingly, the parliament recently passed a law banning both anonymous and foreign donations in the election campaign.

But what if an offer they can’t refuse comes their way? 

The United States first expressed an interest in the island in the 19th century, and the territory is actually closer to North America than the European continent. Greenland’s security is already guaranteed by virtue of an US air base in the north.

And the Arctic is certainly not off-limits for the major powers. 

Both China and Russia are active in the region, not only for the region’s lucrative rare earth materials but also due to warmer temperatures melting sea ice and opening up lucrative trade routes. 

Even if the island doesn’t become American anytime soon, there could be some sort of free trade or association deal with Washington in the future.

Then again, the Greenlanders can be a conservative bunch. 

Where others may see lucrative business opportunities, many of them see a homeland that should be preserved. Only two mines currently exist in Greenland, and the last election, in 2021, was dominated by the popular decision to limit oil and gas exploration and ban the mining of uranium.

It is here where Denmark comes into the picture. 

Three of the five political parties want independence from Denmark, including Prime Minister Egede’s left-wing Community of the People party, which finished first four years ago and is likely to finish on top again.

The same is true for the ruling party’s current coalition partner, the social-democrat Forward party, which aims to finish second. The liberal Democrats party, which prefers to remain in a union with Denmark, is also doing well in recent polls and could well complicate any coalition-building and the direction Greenland will eventually take.

While most Greenlanders say they want independence, they also want to maintain their living standards. 

For that the territory is largely dependent on Denmark. Loyal to the Danish crown since 1814, 50 percent of Greenland’s exports go to Denmark and 60 percent of its imports are from Denmark.

Half of the population works in the public sector, which Copenhagen to a large degree finances via grants. And to boost security across the island, the Danish government last month pledged 2 billion euros ($2.16 billion) to improve its Arctic defenses.

There is a commission in Greenland working on what a possible divorce from Denmark would look like, but essentially it would require three steps.

• Firstly, there would have to be a deal with Copenhagen on what separation would look like; 

• secondly, there would have to be a positive result in a Greenland-wide referendum on independence; 

• and finally, the Danish parliament would need to green-light the whole endeavor.

The pro-independence parties want a referendum to take place sometime during the next four-year mandate, but, given the uncertainties surrounding the territory, that certainly doesn’t look like it will happen in 2025.

Authored by Sam Faddis via Substack,

In 1876 Lieutenant Colonel George Armstrong Custer and a large portion of his 7th Cavalry were killed at the Battle of the Little Bighorn. More than anything else, that disaster can be attributed to Custer’s hubris. He refused to wait for the rest of the U.S. Army forces to arrive, divided his own relatively small force and charged with only a dim understanding of how many Native American warriors he was facing. By the time he understood what he had done it was too late.

The Little Bighorn River is in Montana. However, we may be getting ready to see a reenactment in Ukraine. President Zelenskyy has let his own ego drive his decision-making, and Putin is every bit as unforgiving as Crazy Horse and Sitting Bull ever were.

A short time ago, Zelenskyy stood on the verge of an historic achievement. If he was at all cooperative, Donald Trump would very likely force an end to the war in Ukraine and end the killing. Zelenskyy might well have to make some territorial concessions, but he would emerge as the man who stopped Putin in his tracks and ended once and for all any thought of Russia resurrecting the Soviet Union.

It was not to be. Zelenskyy chose instead to play the role of the petulant child, throwing a tantrum in front of television cameras in the Oval Office. He then embarked on a meaningless trip to Western Europe where he collected a basketful of empty promises of military support and very little else. Meanwhile, Trump paused all military aid to Kiev and suspended intelligence sharing.

The Ukrainians made brave noises about being able to hold out alone. That is all they were – noises. The Russians smell blood, and they are pouring it on.

Inside Russia, Ukrainian troops cling to territory near Kursk. They are now virtually encircled. There is one road out that remains open. The Russians are methodically destroying all the bridges, not in front of the Ukrainian forces but behind them. They are not worried about the Ukrainians advancing. They are making sure they cannot run away and escape what is about to happen to them.

“The situation (for Ukraine in Kursk) is very bad,” Pasi Paroinen, a military analyst with the Finland-based Black Bird Group, told Reuters. “Now there is not much left until Ukrainian forces will either be encircled or forced to withdraw. And withdrawal would mean running a dangerous gauntlet, where the forces would be constantly threatened by Russian drones and artillery,” he said.

The Russians are pouring new troops into the fight, including North Koreans. After temporarily withdrawing in late 2023 or early 2024 following heavy losses, North Korea’s 11th Army Corps has now rejoined the conflict with fresh reinforcements. These North Korean troops are fighting alongside the Russian 177th Marine Regiment, 810th Naval Infantry Brigade, and 11th Air Assault Brigade.

Meanwhile, the Russians have taken advantage of the pause in American intelligence sharing to launch a wave of aerial attacks. Without American help, the Ukrainians have no advance warning of such attacks and their impact is significantly enhanced. Over the last week Russia has carried out hundreds of attacks against Ukraine using roughly 1,200 guided aerial bombs, nearly 870 attack drones, and over 80 missiles of different types.

The cutoff of U.S. intelligence “significantly impacts Ukrainian force protection of High Value Equipment’s shoot, move and scoot timelines, indications and warning of high-threat aircraft,” a retired high-ranking Ukrainian officer said recently “It significantly hampers the ability to target Russian forces and conduct long-range strikes against critical, mobile high-value targets.”

The Russians are already gloating. “The situation in the Kursk borderland has become much more active: there has been no retreat of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from Malaya Loknya yet, but an assault is already underway, and the situation for the occupation forces there is very bad,” the Russian Defense Ministry (MoD) claimed on Telegram. “The problems with logistics have finally begun to develop into a collapse of the defense. Day and night, drones are taking out equipment and ammunition, attempts to send reinforcements and carry out rotation are being stopped. We are expecting good news.”

“In all directions of the Kursk section of the front, all units have launched a large-scale offensive,” Maj Gen Apti Alaudinov, the commander of a Chechen unit fighting in Kursk, said on Telegram on Saturday. “The enemy is abandoning its positions.”

One would hope that the unfolding disaster would bring Zelenskyy back to reality.

There is no sign of such a development. 

The United States is sending a delegation to Saudi Arabia next week for talks with the Ukrainians regarding an end to the hostilities. Yesterday, Zelenskyy announced he would fly to Riyadh to talk to the Crown Prince on Monday but would then return to Ukraine and would not meet with the American delegation.

Custer paid with his life for his arrogance. Let us hope Zelenskyy does not do the same. Right now it’s starting to look a lot like we might be watching Zelenskyy’s last stand.

Despite President Trump deciding to implement a month-long pause, proposed U.S. tariffs are once again casting a long shadow over Canada. 

While the economy will take a hit with the tariffs from the Trump Administration in effect, negative impacts will not be felt equally across the country.

Specific cities and sectors are facing disproportionate risk.

This map, via Visual Capitalist’s Nick Routley, with data from the Canadian Chamber of Commerce Business Data Lab (BDL), is an overview of which Canadian cities are likely to be the hardest hit by tariffs.

Here’s the full data from the Tariff Exposure Index:

Positive numbers indicate a greater risk, while negative numbers indicate less of an impact from tariffs.

Trump Tariff Risk in Canadian Cities

Southern Ontario is expected to bear the brunt of coming tariff action. Cities like Windsor, Hamilton, and Oshawa, deeply embedded in the automotive and steel sectors, face the prospect of job losses and economic slowdown if the trade spat grinds on too long. The steel and aluminum industries, targeted by the proposed tariffs, are central to this concern, with ripple effects expected throughout cross-border manufacturing supply chains.

Alberta is expected to feel the burn of tariffs as well. The province could take the biggest GDP hit in the short term, falling 1.4% in Q2 of 2024. Calgary, a major export hub for fossil fuels, has especially high risk of economic impacts. In addition to the oil and gas sector, Alberta’s cattle industry would get grilled by tariffs as the U.S. is the top export market for Canadian beef.

Specific communities in Québec, such as Saguenay and Trois-Rivières, face big risks in this coming trade war. For example, Saguenay is a key aluminum hub, with U.S. exports making up over one-fifth of the local economy.

Saint John, New Brunswick has the distinction of the being the most “tariff exposed” Canadian city. The city is home to the largest oil refinery in Canada, exporting 80% of its product to the United States.

In Vancouver, a more diverse set of trade partners, particularly in Asia-Pacific, minimizes the West Coast city’s vulnerability to U.S. tariffs. British Columbia’s relatively low reliance on U.S. goods exports (51% in 2024) provides further insulation. One major exception is in rural BC. Smaller communities, which are not covered in the BDL research, could face economic turmoil in a protracted trade war, particularly if logging is a major industry in town.

Looking Ahead

On the upside, there has been plenty of time for Canadian businesses and policymakers develop strategies to mitigate potential impacts. For now, all imports from Canada and Mexico will face a 25% tariff, with the exception of a 10% levy on Canadian energy. Canadian Foreign Minister Melanie Joly announced that retaliatory duties covering over $20 billion of goods are imminent.

Authored by Pepe Escobar,

Let’s start with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s Road to Damascus moment:

“Frankly, it’s a proxy war between nuclear powers, the United States helping Ukraine and Russia, and it needs to come to an end”.

Now that’s a howler. Jeffrey Sachs to the rescue. Of course, the correct formulation would be “proxy war launched by the United States”. But still: Hallelujah! Such illumination – by proxy – from Heavens Above could never had hit the previous American Secretary of Genocide.

Now cut to panic. Total European panic.

Le Petit Roi, as popular in France as nighttime mosquitoes in a five-star beach resort, has declared that peace in Europe is only possible with a “tamed” Russia – and that Russia is a direct threat to France and Europe.

On Ukraine, he pontificated that peace simply cannot take place under Russian terms or via the – inevitable – Ukrainian surrender.

Le breathless Petit Roi literally went nuclear. He stressed that France possesses a nuclear deterrent – and offered it to the rest of Europe, while insisting that Europe’s future should not be dictated by Moscow or Washington.

Le Petit Roi napoleonically all but declared war on Russia. Well, the fact remains that the overwhelming majority of France would gladly agree that mini-Napoleon should be dispatched to the battlefields in the black soil of Novorossiya right away – where he would surrender in less than 5 minutes, waving a rainbow flag, as he realizes he’s about to be turned into an instant steak tartare.

Now couple this Moliere farce with the fate of the much larger, fatter, pan-European New Model Woke Army regimented by the Fuhrerin SS von der Lugen out of Brussels, allegedly to be financed to the tune of 800 billion euros – money that no one has, and would have to be loaned then repaid with sky-high extorsion interest rates to the usual international financial system vultures.

SS von der Lugen insists Europe is in danger, so the solution is a massive expansion of the military-industrial complex – in practice, buying more overpriced American weapons – and “rearmament”.

Talk about Gotterdammerung on crack.

Were the New Model Woke Army ever come to light, surrender would also be a matter of less than 5 minutes – brandishing rainbow flags – as its woke warriors would face the dire prospect of being Oreshniked to a pile of charcoal grilled burgers.

Add to it the Return of the Nord Stream Saga – with a new plot twist. Sy Hersh conclusively proved that the Nord Streams were bombed under orders of the previous Crash Test Dummy regime in Washington. Now Nord Stream 2, at least, could be back in business via a not-so-secret U.S.-Russia deal involving Gazprom and American oligarchs.

All that while fanatics in Berlin assure right and left they want to explore every possible way to prevent (italics mine) the Nord Stream system from being repaired – because after all no one, especially the new BlackRock chancellor, can deviate from the official policy of destroying the German economy by all means necessary.

Compounding the Kafkaesque scenario, the Prime Minister of Denmark – which is on the brink of losing Greenland “one way or another” to Trump 2.0 – immortalized the words, “peace in Ukraine will be more dangerous than war.” The Polish Prime Minister did not miss a beat, adding that “Europe is stronger than Russia and capable of winning in any military, financial, or economic confrontation.” Europe is in such a “winning” streak now – as the record shows.

All this discombobulated Tower of Babel proves, without a shadow of a doubt, that Europe is geopolitically – and geoeconomically – dead and buried. No Teutonic Gods – complete with fat lady singin’ – will be able to resurrect it.

Flirting with a one-way ticket back to the Stone Age

The notion that Europe is able to pose a military threat to Russia does not even qualify as trashy propaganda for sub-zero IQs. It would take at least a decade to re-militarize Germany as its economy is moribund, serially stabbed by unmanageable energy costs. Russia for its part is protected from a possible nuclear attack by Le Petit Roi’s puny “umbrella” arsenal by the most sophisticated missile defenses in the world.

The Aegis defensive missiles in Poland are relatively worthless – even if their prime danger to Russia remains that the system can be converted to handle offensive missiles. As a whole, the Aegis, Patriot, THAAD-PAC-3, SBIR-HIGH Ground Based Infrared Systems are all relatively useless.

Other than the U.S., NATO simply has no military worth. And Washington under Trump 2.0 simply will not be involved in the next European War.

The U.S. has satellite systems for targeting but no one else in NATO has them. With the U.S. pulling out, and in the event of a hypothetical von der Lugen-led New Woke Army attack against Russia, Russian missiles can knock out all European ports, airports and manufacturing and energy systems in a day max – instantly returning Europe to the stone age.

This applies to England, France, Germany, not to mention assorted chihuahuas: all of NATO. Russia can knock out all British power systems with Zircons launched from a conventional submarine. Stone Age, here we come. Russian hypersonic missiles cannot be intercepted.

Meanwhile, President Putin insists on talking sense to lunatics. At the Collegia of the FSB on February 27, he noted how, “some Western elites are still determined to maintain instability in the world, and these forces will try to disrupt and compromise the dialogue [with the U.S.] that has begun. We see this. We need to take this into account and use all the possibilities of diplomacy and special services to disrupt such attempts.”

As Andrei Martyanov has noted, superpowers have “only two options in the 21st century: either start WWIII which will end with nuclear exchange or find a modus vivendi.” That’s a conversation for adults that automatically excludes the European hospice and the childish tantrums of the cracked actor in Kiev.

The cracked actor never had any (italics mine) cards. He now cuts a pathetic figure, doing somersaults to cling to power, propped by (former) collective West money, weapons and massive propaganda. Now the 404 nation he “created” is losing not only the war but the P.R. war as well.

The former adviser to the head of Zelensky’s office, Oleksiy Arestovych, as slimy as they come, but always with his pulse on reliable info, is convinced that the Ukrainian Army, blind and cross-eyed, can hold out at best for another one and a half to two months without all those American goodies. Without intel data, Kiev’s forces cannot prepare strikes against the Russian federation or conduct reconnaissance and cyber ops.

Country 404 as a whole is now entering Walking Dead territory. Europe, with or without its SS von der Lugen Invincible Armada, does not have the industrial capacity, the financial might, and the military capability to stop the debacle. Russia has already stated that any European “peacekeeping” troops will immediately become legitimate targets.

The spectacular failure of Project Ukraine is a sight to behold. It’s no wonder the current, tawdry, ghastly political “elites” are in total panic. Without Project Ukraine, and without the Mafia protection of His Master’s Voice, they are just, geopolitically, an irrelevant, post-colonial small peninsula on the western borders of fast-integrating Eurasia.

As for Trump 2.0 and the Kremlin already having hit some sort of pre-deal – even before the start of serious negotiations – there’s no evidence yet to corroborate it. According to Russian intel sources, what has been struck is a general agreement on the framework of discussions, and what can be achieved in practice. This initial stage will last at least a few months.

Themes on the table range from lifting sanctions on Russian banks and the use of MIR cards to restoring direct flights and curbing the militarization of the Arctic.

Everything essentially hinges on whether Trump wants – and is able to ensure – a fast endgame in Ukraine while disengaging, slowly but surely, from NATO.

Considering what seems to be his strategic direction, Trump wants to make sure he won’t have to offer Mafia protection to European NATO members if they insist on keep going with their Forever War against Russia. It’s clear that shutting off Starlink and shutting off satellite ISR would lead to a much faster endgame in the battlefield.

The SMO, meanwhile, will keep rollin’ on. And as the Europeans want it, to the last Ukrainian.