President Donald Trump rejected an Israeli plan to attack Iran with US military support, which was pitched with a timeline of as soon as next month, in favor of seeking diplomacy with Tehran, The New York Times reported late Wednesday.

The report indicated Israel was seeking significant American support for preemptive strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, with aerial bombings backing up Israeli commando raids to destroy the Iranian sites. The viewpoint from Tel Aviv is that such a massive operation, envisioned to take a week, would not be successful without direct US assistance.

It was during Prime Minister Benjamin Netanayhu’s visit to the White House earlier this month that Trump informed the Israeli leader that instead he would pursue new diplomatic talks with Iran.

That’s when Netanyahu made the strange and provocative statement that they should “go in, blow up the facilities, dismantle all the equipment, under American supervision with American execution.” Netanyahu departed Washington with no major wins – not even on the effort to get new tariffs on Israel removed or reduced.

The NYT writes of Israel in the new report, “They were prepared to carry them out, and at times were optimistic that the United States would sign off.”

The Israelis hoped to thoroughly destroy Iran’s air defenses before starting to target nuclear facilities. It is believed that many were already taken out during last year’s tit-for-tat exchange of strikes between Israel and Iran.

The report confirms prior Axios reporting which said there’s a sharp divide within the Trump administration, as we detailed earlier. Vice President J.D. Vance and those in his camp want to avoid another disastrous Middle East war at all costs:

• This camp includes also Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff — who represented the U.S. at the first round of Iran talks on Saturday — and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth. It also gets outside support from MAGA influencer and Trump whisperer Tucker Carlson.
• This group is concerned that striking Iran’s nuclear facilities would put U.S. soldiers in the region in harm’s way when Iran strikes back.
• They also argue a new conflict in the region would send oil prices skyrocketing at a sensitive time for the U.S. economy.

Here’s what the new NY Times reporting has to say:

In a meeting this month — one of several discussions about the Israeli plan — Tulsi Gabbard, the director of national intelligence, presented a new intelligence assessment that said the buildup of American weaponry could potentially spark a wider conflict with Iran that the United States did not want.

And more: “A range of officials echoed Ms. Gabbard’s concerns in the various meetings. Susie Wiles, the White House chief of staff; Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth; and Vice President JD Vance all voiced doubts about the attack.”

Now the reason for the spate of firings at key Pentagon posts, among them top Hegseth staffers, is becoming evident…

The NYT reports Pete Hegseth was among Trump officials opposing the US launching a massive war on Iran on behalf of Israel

3 Pentagon officials have already been fired for unknown leaks

Israel lobbyists are now calling for more firings over the leaks that led to this story pic.twitter.com/9pVE1uJ9Oa

— Max Blumenthal (@MaxBlumenthal) April 17, 2025

NYT further notes that “Even Mr. Waltz, frequently one of the most hawkish voices on Iran, was skeptical that Israel’s plan could succeed without substantial American assistance.”

But for now a military option is being kept on the table as the US pursues talks with Tehran, the next which are set for Saturday in Rome, with the report also noting that “In addition to talks and strikes, other options were discussed, including covert Israeli operations conducted with U.S. support and more aggressive sanctions enforcement.”

For now it looks like DNI Gabbard as the nation’s top intelligence chief is having a positive effect, as the usual neocons and interventionists can’t so easily get their way anymore. 

Incredible. Hegseth’s advisors stop an attack that could have escalated into WW3 and suddenly get escorted out of the building

What is going on? https://t.co/D8TU6zlRsB

— Jack Poso 🇺🇸 (@JackPosobiec) April 17, 2025

But it looks like they (the hawks and the Israeli lobby/AIPAC) are currently trying to get everyone opposed to war with Iran fired. On Wednesday a third official was escorted out of the Pentagon, with security credentials removed:

A third high-level Pentagon staffer has been placed on administrative leave in two days as part of a probe into media leaks.

Colin Carroll, chief of staff to Deputy Secretary of Defense Stephen Feinberg, was escorted out of the building on Wednesday, following Dan Caldwell, senior advisor to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, and Darin Selnick, deputy chief of staff to Hegseth. 

“We can confirm that Mr. Carroll has been placed on administrative leave pending investigation. We have nothing additional to provide at this time,” a defense official told Fox News. 

Authored by Susan Harris via The Epoch Times,

In an era of polarized narratives, Donald Trump’s true character is often reduced to soundbites and crafted caricatures. That’s the Donald Trump comedian and political commentator Bill Maher thought he knew.

A lot of people didn’t think it would go well when Maher recently went to the White House to have dinner with President Trump, but they were proved wrong.

In an endearing yet hilarious monologue about the visit, Maher told how he had presented Trump with a list of names he’d called him. Maher read from that list, claiming that through the years, the president had described him as, “stupid, dummy, low-life dummy, sleazebag, and stone-cold crazy” among other colorful characterizations.

Maher, who has taken on the most controversial subjects through the years, has a reputation for dishing it out pretty hard himself. Vanity Fair described him as having “built his brand on provocation.”

Despite their shared histories for theatrics, the key takeaway from Maher’s monologue was that Trump gave him a “very generous amount of time and a willingness to listen and accept me as a possible friend.” It was clear that he was both impressed and humbled with the president and the graciousness he showed during their meeting.

Take, for example, the fact that it is often reported that Trump never laughs. Those of us who watched his rallies live—either in person or on the internet—knew this wasn’t the case. I can vouch for the fact that Trump often had his supporters laughing, and wasn’t afraid to laugh along. If you want footage of a long, hearty belly laugh, however, you’d be hard pressed to find that of anyone, let alone of a world leader.

Maher confirmed that he believed President Trump never laughed, saying, “Just for starters he never laughs. I’ve never seen him laugh in public. But he does, including at himself, and it’s not fake.”

Yet, beyond the headlines are the lesser-told accounts of personal kindness, acts of compassion, and a resilience that culminated in a defining moment of courage at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania. These traits and actions reveal a man with a deep capacity for compassion and an old-school conviction that a leader should embody America’s strength.

In a recent interview with broadcaster Glenn Beck, Washington Examiner reporter Salena Zito revealed what she witnessed in Butler on July 13, 2024. 

(Her upcoming book, “Butler: The Untold Story of the Near Assassination of Donald Trump and the Fight for America’s Heartland,” is already a pre-order bestseller on Amazon.)

Zito, who attended the rally with her daughter, had a front row seat to the events as they unfolded. She said that as Trump lay on the ground, shielded by the Secret Service, he began chanting, “USA, USA!” That was a moment few people saw or heard, and it was overshadowed by the now famous phrase, “Fight, fight, fight!”—words Trump gave the crowd with a raised fist as he was being led to safety.

President Trump knew Ms. Zito well—so well that he called her the morning after the assassination attempt to see if she and her daughter were OK. 

By her own account, she responded with an expletive: “Are you … kidding me? You’re the one that was shot, right?”

Zito said she and Trump spoke many times throughout that day, and she asked him why he reacted the way he did.

He responded: 

“Well Selena, at that moment I wasn’t Donald Trump. I was symbolic. Even though I wasn’t president yet … I had once been president. I had an obligation to show that the country is strong, that we will not be defeated, and that we are resolute. I did not want to be the symbol of America being weak.”

That statement was reminiscent of Trump at the height of the pandemic, when he himself tested positive for COVID. We remember a very sick president walking cooly from the White House to the helicopter that would take him to Walter Reed hospital. Later we found out he was sicker than we thought; the walk across the lawn was likely not an easy one.

Later, Trump left Walter Reed to wave at supporters gathering outside. The move was criticized by some, but most of us saw it for what it was—a show of strength for a country whose people desperately needed inspiration and hope.

Here in New York State, for instance, it was downright depressing to see American flags at half-mast throughout the pandemic. It gave the impression that we were all doomed and we might as well throw in the towel—COVID had won. Luckily, the only time President Trump ordered the flags lowered for pandemic victims was from May 22–24, 2020. It was reportedly done at the request of congressional democrats. Trump knew that strength begets strength.

Outside of the self-inflicted soundbites, hateful caricatures, and misleading media narratives, people like Bill Maher and Salena Zito continue to inform us of a president who possesses warmth, an openness to making amends, and the kind of Churchillian fortitude every leader should possess—but rarely does.

*  *  *

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio has just killed the Biden administration’s last-ditch effort to shelter the government’s Ministry of Truth, the Global Engagement Center (GEC).

In a new op-ed published by The Federalist (a target of the GEC along with yours truly), Rubio writes;

GEC was supposed to be dead already. But, as many have learned the hard way, in Washington, D.C., few things ever truly die. When Republicans in Congress sunset GEC’s funding at the end of last year, the Biden State Department simply slapped on a new name. The GEC became the Counter Foreign Information Manipulation and Interference (R-FIMI) office, with the same roster of employees. With this new name, they hoped to survive the transition to the new administration.

Today, we are putting that to an end. Whatever name it goes by, GEC is dead. It will not return.

Rubio further notes how well-intentioned initiatives to counter foreign actors “nearly destroyed America’s long free speech history.”

As the Epoch Times notes further, originally founded as the Counterterrorism Communication Center in 2007 to root out narratives from Al-Qaeda and other terrorist organizations, it became the GEC in 2016 under the Obama administration with an expanded mission to broaden efforts countering foreign disinformation.

According to its webpage, which has been archived on the State Department’s website, the center’s mission was “to direct, lead, synchronize, integrate, and coordinate U.S. Federal Government efforts to recognize, understand, expose, and counter foreign state and non-state propaganda and disinformation efforts aimed at undermining or influencing the policies, security, or stability of the United States, its allies, and partner nations.”

“We do not target American audiences,” Daniel Kimmage, a center employee, said during a previous deposition. “The GEC’s concern is with the actions of foreign propaganda actors. The GEC’s concern stops there. It doesn’t extend to the speech of Americans.”

The Epoch Times reported that the center was set to close in the final days of the Biden administration in December 2024. It was at the center of several legal cases for its involvement in an initiative called Election Integrity Partnership (EIP), which sought to flag election disinformation on social media.

Rubio said in his op-ed that “GEC was supposed to be dead already,” and that his predecessors under the Biden administration changed the center’s name to the Counter Foreign Information Manipulation and Interference office in the hopes of it surviving the transition while retaining the same employee roster.

He referred to GEC’s work with the EIP and noted that the head of the center, Richard Stengel, in the introduction of his book “Information Wars,” likened the way President Donald Trump talks to that of terrorists or Russian disinformation campaigns.

In his op-ed, Rubio also accused the GEC of working during the COVID-19 pandemic to label any speculation of the coronavirus being an engineered bioweapon or coming from research conducted in a lab in Wuhan as being Russian disinformation and foreign propaganda.

Rather than restaff the office, Rubio took a stand against what he called the entire disinformation industry and the idea that the American people needed to be protected from lies online.

At the same time, he said he was confident that his department could remain vigilant against communist China and other nations with growing authoritarian censorship without this office.

“The best way to counter disinformation is free speech, is to make sure that what’s true has as equal or greater opportunity to communicate as what’s not true,” Rubio said during the interview. “We’ve learned that the hard way.”

Authored by Jacob Burg via The Epoch Times,

Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum said on April 16 that he had ordered a halt to the construction of a major wind project off the coast of New York “until further review.”

Burgum, posting to the social platform X on Wednesday, said he had consulted with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick to direct the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management to “halt all construction activities” on Equinor’s Empire Wind project. The Biden administration approved the project in 2023, with construction beginning last year.

The interior secretary accused the former administration of “rush[ing] through its approval without sufficient analysis.” He did not provide further details on potential faults identified.

“On day one, [President Donald Trump] called for comprehensive reviews of federal wind projects and wind leasing, and at Interior, we are doing our part to make sure these instructions are followed,” Burgum wrote in a follow-up post.

The Interior Department did not respond to a request for comment by publication time.

Equinor, a Norway-based company, was supported by President Joe Biden in his efforts to expand renewable energy projects.

The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM), an arm of the Interior Department that permits offshore energy projects, gave the company a stop-work order, according to an Equinor spokesperson.

“We will engage directly with BOEM and the Department of Interior to understand the questions raised about the permits we have received from authorities,” Equinor said in a statement provided to media outlets. “We will not comment about the potential consequences until we know more.”

Equinor did not respond to a request for further comment by publication time.

Lutnick was involved in the decision because the Commerce Department houses the National Marine Fisheries Service, which is also involved in permitted offshore wind facilities.

Burgum’s decision follows Trump’s January order to review all offshore wind permitting and leasing on his first day back in office in January.

After declaring a national energy emergency, the Trump administration has hastened the speed of environmental reviews and has fast-tracked approvals for other energy projects.

Since Trump’s order, the offshore wind industry has worked to align itself with the president’s energy agenda.

At the time, the American Clean Power Association said in a statement that it “strongly supports President Trump’s effort to reform the permitting process to speed the development of all forms of domestic energy production.”

However, the group’s CEO, Jason Grumet, on Wednesday criticized Burgum’s decision to halt the Empire Wind project.

“Halting construction of fully permitted energy projects is the literal opposite of an energy abundance agenda,” Grumet wrote in a statement.

“With skyrocketing energy demand and increasing consumer prices, we need streamlined permitting for all domestic energy resources. Doubling back to reconsider permits after projects are under construction sends a chilling signal to all energy investment.”

He urged the Trump administration to “quickly address perceived inadequacies in the prior permit approvals so that this project can complete construction and bring much-needed power to the grid.”

Located 12 nautical miles south of Long Island, New York, the lease area will house two projects, which together are expected to generate enough energy to power 700,000 homes each year.

Empire Wind was expected to begin producing electricity in 2027 and is a key part of New York’s efforts to move toward renewable energy.

In response to the pause, New York Gov. Kathy Hochul said the project had already generated roughly 1,000 “good-paying union jobs” and is contributing to the state’s economy.

“This fully federally permitted project has already put shovels in the ground before the President’s executive orders—it’s exactly the type of bipartisan energy solution we should be working on,” Hochul wrote in a statement.

“As Governor, I will not allow this federal overreach to stand. I will fight this every step of the way to protect union jobs, affordable energy, and New York’s economic future.”

New York Gov. Kathy Hochul speaks during a press conference on Nov. 14, 2024. Angela Weiss/AFP via Getty Images

Critics of offshore wind projects are concerned about their potential environmental impacts.

According to the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, offshore wind farms “can be damaging to fish and other marine species” due to the noise and vibration from both the construction and operation of the wind turbines. Disturbing the sea floor during construction can also “affect plankton in the water column.”

However, beyond the energy produced, offshore wind farms also have some indirect benefits.

“The turbines may act as ‘artificial reefs’ and increase biological productivity in the vicinity,” the university’s Center for Environmental Science added. “The presence of hard structures can provide habitat for barnacles, sponges, and other invertebrates, which may locally increase fish abundance. These processes can consequently result in attracting predators higher up the food chain.”

An American citizen identified as Akinyela Sawa Taylor hijacked a Cessna 208 Grand Caravan with 14 souls on board in Belize on Thursday. 

Taylor held the pilot at knifepoint and demanded a new flight path out of the country. He also demanded more fuel for the plane, according to ABC News, citing local law enforcement.

SECUESTRAN AVIÓN EN BELICE

El avión Cessna 208 Grand Caravan EX, matrícula V3-HIG, perteneciente a la aerolínea beliceña Tropic Air, fue secuestrado cuando salia de Corozal rumbo a Belice.

El secuestrador fue identificado como Akinyela Sawa Taylor de 49 estadounidense, por el… pic.twitter.com/DTXxzevKKG

— 5toPoder La Verdad sin Miedo (@5toPoderSM) April 17, 2025

According to police, the crazed American was fatally shot in the chest by a passenger carrying a licensed firearm. 

Authorities in Belize shoot dead a man believed to have hijacked a Tropic Air flight on Thursday.

The small passenger aircraft was reportedly mid-flight when Taylor allegedly brandished a knife, sparking panic among passengers and crew. pic.twitter.com/rqMusrzZzx

— Breaking Aviation News & Videos (@aviationbrk) April 17, 2025

The Cessna 208 had been circling near Belize City at the time of the incident and nearly ran out of fuel. 

Authorities said three passengers—all Belizean nationals—sustained knife wounds. There were two other Americans on board. 

PASSENGER STABBED TRYING TO FIGHT PLANE HIJACKER

A domestic flight from San Pedro was hijacked by a passenger on board. The aircraft continues to move along the coast of Belize.

We are not sure what is the motive of the hijacker but we do now that one man was stabbed several… pic.twitter.com/mmeNWEodCQ

— Claudia Bryan (@ClaudiaBryan01) April 17, 2025

Flight tracking website Flightradar24 provided in-depth flight details:

The flight departed Corozal at 8:17 am local time (14:17 UTC). At 14:23 UTC at an altitude of 1,025 feet, the flight began squawking 7700, the internationally recognized code for general emergency. The flight continued toward Belize City and then vectored off the Belize coast for little more than an hour. The aircraft landed safely at 16:11 UTC (10:11 am local time).

Video from the airport shows a large emergency response meeting the aircraft on the runway. There were a total of 14 passengers onboard the flight. Authorities say three passengers suffered knife wounds and the hijacker was shot by a passenger who was carrying a licensed firearm.

Flightradar24 shared details about the operator of the plane and the type of aircraft:

The flight was operated by a Tropicair Cessna Grand Caravan EX registered V3-HIG.

Local outlet Belize.com shared an interview with a police official describing how the passenger with a licensed firearm neutralized the hijacker:

Plane hijacking in Belize ends with hero passenger shooting American hijacker dead as plane runs out of fuel on landing Commissioner of Police says. pic.twitter.com/YjIlwwGcUs

— Belize.com (@Belizean) April 17, 2025

The alleged hijacker:

#BREAKING: Over the last hour, a Tropic Air flight en route from Corozal to San Pedro, Belize, was hijacked mid-flight by a knife-wielding passenger, later identified as 49-year-old U.S. national Akinyela Sawa Taylor from California. Reports are conflicting at the moment, but it… pic.twitter.com/xyJSnIX7Oi

— Laszlo Varga (@LaszloRealtor) April 17, 2025

So, where exactly did the hijacker want to go if he got his demand for more jet fuel? The distance on a fully fueled Cessna Grand Caravan is about 1,200 miles; weight and weather will alter the range.

Surely the Cessna would’ve been blown to smithereens by F-22s over the Gulf of America if he attempted a US inbound flight. 

Update (1600ET): The White House vs Eccles Building battle has been stewing all day with President Trump expressing confidence from The Oval Office that he had the authority to oust Powell.

“If I want him out, he’ll be out of there real fast, believe me.”

🇺🇸 JUST IN: President Trump claims if he asks Powell to leave the Fed, “he’ll leave. If I ask him to, he’ll be out of there. I don’t think he’s doing the job.” pic.twitter.com/yvbAXuV8b1

— Fairly Flower Faith (@FairyFlower161) April 17, 2025

The president added that he is “not happy” with Powell and accused him of “playing politics” with interest rates.

The Wall Street Journal reports that President Trump has for months privately discussed firing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, according to people familiar with the matter, but he hasn’t made a final decision about whether to try to oust him before his term ends next year.

In meetings at the president’s private Florida club, Mar-a-Lago, Trump has spoken with Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor, about potentially firing Powell before his term ends and possibly selecting Warsh to be his replacement, the people said.

Warsh has advised against firing Powell and has argued that he should let the Fed chair complete his term without interference, according to the people. 

The conversations with Warsh carried into February, while others close to the president have spoken to Trump about firing Powell as recently as early March, the people said.

Inside the White House, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has reportedly consistently pushed back against Trump advisers who want to replace Powell, arguing that doing so would provide little benefit relative to the high potential cost. This week, he referred to the Fed’s independence on monetary policy as a “jewel box” that the U.S. should never compromise.

One question that has come up a few times is whether Trump actually wants Powell gone, or is he setting him as the scapegoat in the event that the US economy slips into recession?

*  *  *

As US equity markets continue to fall – and recession calls mount from establishment elites, despite strong ‘hard’ data’ – President Trump lashed out at Fed Chair Powell via TruthSocial this morning exclaiming that Powell’s termination from his position can’t come quickly enough, arguing that the US central bank should have lowered interest rates already this year, and in any case should do so now.

The ECB is expected to cut interest rates for the 7th time, and yet, “Too Late” Jerome Powell of the Fed, who is always TOO LATE AND WRONG, yesterday issued a report which was another, and typical, complete “mess!”

Oil prices are down, groceries (even eggs!) are down, and the USA is getting RICH ON TARIFFS. 

Too Late should have lowered Interest Rates, like the ECB, long ago, but he should certainly lower them now. 

Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough!

In Europe, trade wars are dovish: 

Reuters reports that the ECB decision to cut rates for a 7th time was unanimous as even some of the more hawkish rate setters agreed the global trade was has significantly altered the outlook.

In a news conference in November, Powell was asked whether he would step down if Trump asked him to resign. 

Powell gave an unusually blunt answer: “No.”

He later added that the removal or demotion of top Fed officials was “not permitted under the law.”

The President of the United States cannot unilaterally fire the Chairman of the Federal Reserve before the end of their term, except under specific legal conditions. Here’s a structured breakdown:

Appointment Process:
The Fed Chair is nominated by the President and confirmed by the Senate for a 4-year term, which is renewable. The Chair also serves as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, who have 14-year terms.

Legal Framework:
The Federal Reserve Act allows the President to remove a Board member (including the Chair) only “for cause” (e.g., misconduct, neglect of duty). This does not include policy disagreements or political differences.
This provision ensures the Fed’s operational independence from short-term political pressures, safeguarding its role in managing monetary policy.

Historical Context:
Past presidents (e.g., Nixon with Arthur Burns, Reagan with Paul Volcker) have faced limitations in influencing Fed Chairs. While they could apply political pressure or decline reappointment, outright removal was not legally feasible without just cause.
Courts have historically upheld the Fed’s independence, reinforcing that “for cause” requires a high threshold, such as ethical violations or incapacity.

Practical Implications:
A President can indirectly influence the Fed by shaping its leadership through appointments (when terms expire) or public persuasion. However, abrupt removal to impose preferred policies would face legal challenges and undermine institutional credibility.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent earlier this week indicated that the administration’s timeline for considering Powell’s successor was roughly six months away. 

Speaking in a Bloomberg Television interview, Bessent said that the timing for interviewing candidates to replace Powell was “sometime in the fall.”

Bessent also said that Fed independence in deciding on monetary policy was a “jewel box that has got to be preserved.”

We suspect some of Trump’s frustration comes from the fact that China’s PBOC is doing ‘whatever it takes’ to prop up their economy/market (take your pick)…

China PPT: propping up Chinese stocks literally every day

Fed’s Powell: fuck your calls pic.twitter.com/VGXMNNwccv

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 17, 2025

Furthermore, Trump does have grounds for thinking that the so-called ‘Independent’ Fed is far from it following the comments from Bill Dudley in 2019…

The day is August 27, 2019. Former NY Fed president Bill Dudley writes a Bloomberg oped saying “the Fed shouldn’t enable Donald Trump” and urged the central bank not to “provide offsetting stimulus” in Trump’s trade war with China.

Six years later, here we are pic.twitter.com/H6WT5O0cMD

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 11, 2025

Doesn’t sound like an ‘apolitical’ entity to us?

One more thing – for mathematically gifted among you – why did The Fed slash rates by 50bps just ahead of the election when financial conditions were already ‘easy’ but refuses to do so now that financial conditions are drastically tighter?

Fed reaction function pic.twitter.com/80AzJlZo3h

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 9, 2025

At least Trump hasn’t got physical with Powell… yet!

Here is LBJ literally slamming Fed chair William McChesney Martin against a wall to “print money” pic.twitter.com/qbxqOyuPQe

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 17, 2025

However, Trump’s ability to remove top officials at agencies that had long been viewed as having a measure of independence from the White House has come into acute focus in recent months, after the administration dismissed senior officials at the Federal Trade Commission, the National Labor Relations Board and Merit Systems Protection Board.

As Bloomberg reports, the firings are the most direct challenge yet to a 1935 Supreme Court decision that paved the way for agency independence. 

Powell made reference Wednesday to a current Supreme Court case with regard to the removal of the NLRB and MSPB officials.

“There’s a Supreme Court case. People will have read probably” about it, Powell said in answering questions at the Economic Club of Chicago. 

“That’s a case that people are talking about a lot. I don’t think that decision will apply to the Fed but I don’t know,” he said.

“It’s a situation that we’re monitoring carefully.”

Powell’s term as chair runs into May 2026, while his term as a governor lasts until February 2028.

NFLX reports earnings right after the close (~4:02pm ET) with conference call at 4:45pm ET. 

With 1Q marking the first quarter of no subscriber / net adds disclosures, the tactical ‘subs’ debate has quieted down (yes, still some q/q questions off the big 4Q and/or how to think about the WSJ story earlier in the week about the company hitting a $1 trillion market cap, which seemed like a planted attempt to smoke out shorts ahead of earnings and give the stock a buffer to fall from on disappointing news) with most of the debate around who will be the ‘incremental buyer’ of Netflix shares post print as the valuation us starting to stick out relative to large-cap Internet peers (albeit vs expectations for Netflix to deliver what may be a rare ‘beat’ on earnings given perceived insulation from a number of the ‘headwinds’ out there – e.g. macro slowdown, tariffs, AI capex, etc).

Here are Wall Street consensus estimates

• Q1 EPS $5.763
• Q1 Revenue $10.496BN
• Q1 Operating Profit: $3.00BN
• Q1 Net Income $2.484BN

… and UBS’ bogeys:

• Q1 Revenue Growth Reported: $10.5bn/up 12% y/y
• Q1 Revenue Growth FXN: $15%
• Q1 EBIT: $3 bn
• Q2 Revenue Growth FXN: up 16%
• Q2 EBIT: around $3.3 bn
• FY25 Operating Margin: reiterate versus prior guide 29% (some hopes for a slight walk up)
• FY25 Revenue Guide: reiterate versus prior guide $43.5-44.5 bn/14-17% y/y

And visually

In its preview of NFLX earnings, UBS writes that “shockingly” the amount of inbound on bogeys has only picked up over the course of this past week. Netflix is a crowded long and has been a defensive safe haven with investors. 

According to UBS, the bar seems low, and they are the first one out of the gate, which has proved to be a lucrative move for them in the past.

Despite the broader market carnage, Netflix still comes up as a top name to own into 2025, so price action may be dictated more so by what management says to update (though not expected) FY25 and margin expansion (bulls playing for upside to the 100bp of growth, though it doesn’t feel like investors are playing for them to update this quarter). Netflix is also seen as a secular winner, with pricing power and solid underlying sub momentum given the competitive backdrop.

Investors will be focused on: 

1. tone and confidence in ability to sustain double-digit revenue growth and margin expansion in 2025; 
2. impact of recent pricing changes; 
3. impacts to ad business given softer macro versus guide for double ad revs in 2025; 
4. any implications for transitioning onto in-house ad platform along with any early learnings thus far; 
5. updates on live content/sports strategy and gaming; 
6. updates on content spend ($18 bn content spend versus $17 bn in 2024); and 
7. competitive dynamics and what the pullback at peers is doing to their business.

Here, Goldman’s sellside desk chimes in and writes that in terms of idiosyncratic company debates coming out of the last earnings report, the bank expects investor debates to remain centered around: 

1. the perceptions of competitive moat (both against traditional media competition and increasingly forward competition from YouTube, TikTok & Meta); 
2. the ability for the company to continue to efficiently close the monetization gap when compared to consumption patterns; 
3. how the ad supported tier might continue to scale; & 
4. the rising focus on live entertainment in terms of the company’s content investments.

In its latest model, Goldman updated its forward estimates as follows: 

1. slightly lowered forward net add trajectory by ~0.5mm on an annual basis (with a skew toward more ad supported subscriber adds in the coming quarters in terms of mix); 
2. modestly lowered advertising revenue assumptions throughout the remaining quarters of 2025 reflecting a weakening (& less certain) advertising environment (especially among the type of brand advertising dollars that are deployed into NFLX’s platform). 

Goldman remains Neutral (on the shares on the back of a balanced risk/reward from current levels) and lowered its 12-month price target from $960 to $955.

Goldman is hosting its Private Tech Tour 2025 this week.

From Monday through Thursday, Goldman analysts will visit companies in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou. The tour will feature C-suite meetings and factory tours at 19 companies in eight critical industries. These industries—including AI, semiconductors, eVTOL, and photonics—are poised to define the great powers of the 2030s.

Early takeaways from China’s tech ecosystem suggest that Asia holds the lead, especially regarding handsets, eVTOL, and other technologies that share similar production ecosystems. This report serves as a wake-up call for Washington elites: re-shoring these critical supply chains is essential for 2030 dominance. 

Here’s a list of the 19 companies in 8 critical industries the analysts have either visited or will visit this week:

1. Satellites: Landspace, Chinese liquid rocket and reusable rocket supplier

2. Silicon Photonics: Sicoya, Qianmu Laser, Macrochip, Chinese CW (continuous wave) laser suppliers

3. Robotaxi: Deeproute AI, Rhino.ai, GigaAI, Chinese autonomous driving software and chipsets suppliers

4. eVTOL: Aeroht (Xpeng affiliate), Chinese flying vehicles

5. AI Software: 01.AI, AutoArk AI, Chinese AI foundation model and AI agent AI hardware: MetaX, ZStack, xFusion, Chinese AI computing power and servers

6. Semiconductors: Innogrit, Ascen Power, ZenSemi, Capcon Semi, Chinese memory IC, SiC, foundry, and advanced packaging equipment suppliers

7. Smartphones: OPPO, Nothing, Chinese smartphone brand makers

The analyst provided the companies that clients should get exposure:

1. Satellites: UMT, WNC, Hon Hai; Satellites deepdive report,

2. Silicon Photonics: Landmark, VPEC; initiation report,

3. Robotaxi: Horizon Robotics, Pony AI,

4. eVTOL: Ehang,

5. AI software: Kingsoft Office, Kingdee, Yonyou,

6. AI hardware: Cambricon, FII, Quanta,

7. Semiconductors: Montage, SICC, SMIC, ASMPT,

8. Smartphones: Transsion.

It turns out that silicon photonics, robotaxi, eVTOL, AI software, semiconductors, and smartphones share a deeply interconnected production ecosystem centered around advanced electronics manufacturing, semiconductor integration, and software-hardware co-optimization. Right now, China controls a sizeable chunk of these supply chains that are essential for U.S. national defense. 

空飛ぶ車と人型ロボット、2つのテクノロジーの共演https://t.co/omaXfwnXP9#FlyingCar #eVTOL #bipedal #humanoid #robot #technology #unitree #XPENGAEROHT pic.twitter.com/PkXCz48Spw

— T.Yamazaki (@ZappyZappy7) January 26, 2025

President Trump’s trade war is about re-shoring these critical supply chains to ensure U.S. dominance in the 2030s. 

Marc Andreessen of Andreessen Horowitz recently highlighted in a podcast that three key industries—drones, cars, and robots—are set to succeed smartphones as the next major technology platforms. He said these technologies share a similar production ecosystem and warned that China dominates these supply chains. 

🚨 NEW: Marc Andreessen on China’s manufacturing dominance

“There’s three industries that follow phones that the Chinese own the global market at:

1) Drones
Something over 90% of all the consumer drones are made in China. Which is what the US Military also uses. It’s the whole… pic.twitter.com/e94C927MMU

— Autism Capital 🧩 (@AutismCapital) January 15, 2025

The big challenge for the U.S. is the lack of companies with all or most of these technologies under one umbrella—EVs, robots, AI, drones, space, and more. Chinese firms like BYD, NIO, Xpeng, and others are rapidly building this full-stack ecosystem. In the U.S., the only comparable example is Elon Musk’s empire: Tesla (EVs and humanoid robots), xAI (AI development and social media via X), and SpaceX (rocket launches and satellite internet).

Even more alarming is the Democratic Party’s ongoing effort to kill Tesla and Elon Musk’s companies—companies that are positioned to lead the U.S. through the 2030s in the great power competition against the Chinese Communist Party. 

This raises a troubling question: Is there foreign influence at play—possibly from Beijing? After all, the Democrats’ history with China has long raised red flags.

• U.S. Rolls Out New Romantic Restrictions For Gov’t Workers In China To Prevent CCP Honey Traps

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• Watch: Taxpayer-Funded NGO With China & Democratic Party Ties Giving ICE Evasion Training

• Was Biden China’s Manchurian Candidate The Entire Time?

Democrats targeting the very American companies poised to lead in the 2030s sends a disturbing message that raises national security risks. 

Via SchiffGold.com,

In a recent podcast appearance with Glenn Diesen, Peter makes a compelling case regarding the fragile state of the American economy, highlighting the unsustainable reliance on monetary inflation, trade deficits, and artificially low interest rates. He contrasts the challenging road ahead for America against the comparatively smoother transition other parts of the world might experience by turning their productive capacities inward. 

Peter starts by revealing the fundamental imbalance driving the U.S. economy—its dependence on consuming goods it doesn’t produce, paid for by printing dollars:

We’re able to consume what we don’t produce, and we pay for it by printing money. And so the world gets our inflation and we get their stuff. So we’ve got the better end of the bargain. Now they use our paper to buy our financial assets, our stocks, our bonds, our real estate. So they are accumulating assets and they’re getting the income from those assets. So what we’re doing is we’re indulging our present and we’re sacrificing our future.

This indulgent behavior is unsustainable, Peter argues. To truly stabilize the U.S. economy, Americans must be prepared for sacrifices and cuts in public spending, reforms that politicians are loath to pursue:

Because in order to free up resources to build factories, we can’t spend all this money and run these huge deficits to crowd out all of our capital. So we need to cut Medicare, Social Security, national defense, and Americans have to stop spending. We need to save our money to build those factories. They’re not going to just grow out of thin air. So there’s a lot of hard work that needs to be done. But of course, nobody has a stomach for that. Our whole economy is a house of cards built on the overvalued dollar and our trade deficits and our excess consumption and artificially low rates. And all that’s about to come toppling down.

Far from solving the economic woes, Peter warns that the current combination of monetary policy and tariffs will exacerbate existing inflation and economic stagnation, pushing America deeper into recession:

We already have stagflation now. We’re just going to have higher inflation and a weaker economy. We’re going to be in a recession and there’s going to be a lot of inflation. Mainly because the tariffs redirect the inflation out of the financial markets back into the real economy. We’ve benefited from diverting our inflation to the stock market and the bond market. That’s all going to reverse. That’s why if you look at what’s happening today, the foreign stocks are going way up. I own a lot of stocks today that are up 3%, 4%, 5%, 6% that are in Europe, they’re in Asia, they’re in South America. Money is being sucked out of the US right now, the opposite of what Trump wants. Capital is not coming to America, it’s fleeing America.

Given this reality, Peter offers practical advice to investors, encouraging a pivot away from overpriced U.S. assets toward more fundamentally sound investment opportunities abroad, particularly in precious metals:

They should own mining stocks, precious metals mining stocks that will benefit from the rising gold price. Gold is over 3,000. It’s going higher as the world de-dollarizes. Central banks are going to be buying more gold and less treasuries. That’s great for gold mining stocks. That’s not good for the U.S. government, because who’s going to buy those treasuries? The deficits are going to be much bigger in this recession. I think the Fed is going to buy them, and that’s going to be even more inflation. Not only are the tariffs going to be pushing up prices, but so will inflation that the Fed is going to create. The weak dollar is going to add to the pain of the tariffs.

Peter concludes that while America faces daunting structural economic challenges, many international economies have an easier path forward. They can simply redirect their existing productive capacity inward, decoupling themselves from a collapsing dollar:

All the world has to do is turn its productive capacity that already exists and use those factories, use those workers, use those resources and supply chains and infrastructure to make stuff for themselves instead of making stuff for Americans. 

… 

So the world has an easy task and actually a pleasant task because they get to consume. The hard work is here in America because we got to figure out how to consume without factories, which we can’t do. So we have to build non-existing factories. That takes a lot of resources. That takes a lot of effort. So we have the difficult road ahead, not the world.

Be sure to listen to Peter’s latest podcast, where he analyzes economic news in even more detail.

Two of China’s fastest-growing e-commerce players are dialing back their U.S. expansion strategies as tariffs and trade restrictions reshape the competitive landscape.

Temu and Shein, whose ultra-low prices and aggressive digital marketing campaigns have challenged industry incumbents like Amazon, have significantly cut U.S. advertising spending and notified customers of upcoming price increases – amid mounting pressure from President Donald Trump’s recent tariff hikes on Chinese goods.

According to data from analytics firm Sensor Tower, Temu cut its average daily advertising spend on platforms including Meta, X (formerly Twitter), and YouTube by 31% in the two weeks leading up to April 13. Shein’s spending fell by 19% over the same period. Temu also eliminated its entire U.S. spend on Google Shopping as of April 9, the day new tariffs on Chinese goods were introduced.

The two companies sent near-identical emails to U.S. customers this week citing “global trade rules and tariffs” as drivers of higher operating expenses and warning that “price adjustments” will begin on April 25.

The pullback underscores how Trump’s revived trade confrontation with China, which includes ending the de minimis exemption that allowed duty-free imports under $800 – is reverberating across the U.S. consumer and tech sectors. The new rules, set to take effect May 2, impose tariffs of up to 90% of a parcel’s value or $75–$150 per shipment, a dramatic shift for companies that relied on small-package loopholes to flood the U.S. market with inexpensive goods.

“The decision to close the de minimis loophole has been like a targeted weed killer,” Mike Ryan, an analyst at Smarter Ecommerce, told the Financial Times.

The price advantage that helped Temu and Shein amass tens of millions of American customers is now eroding, and with it, their digital dominance. Temu’s app, once a top-five staple in Apple’s U.S. App Store, has dropped to 75th place, according to the BBC. Shein, previously in the top 15, is now ranked 58th, reflecting a rapid decline in user acquisition.

Both companies have urged customers to shop before prices rise and said they were “doing everything we can to keep prices low and minimize the impact on you.”

Advertising Cuts Could Hit U.S. Platforms

The shift could dent revenues for major U.S. advertising platforms. Meta, whose advertising business brought in $18.4 billion from China-based advertisers last year, more than 10% of its total, warned investors in January that tariffs and trade disputes posed a material risk to its business.

Temu and Shein were among the largest Chinese advertisers in the U.S. in 2023 and early 2024. Temu alone was the top U.S. advertiser on X last year. According to marketing intelligence company WARC, the recent ad cuts will likely affect sales, as “they need to constantly advertise to keep customers,” said James McDonald, the company’s director of data intelligence and forecasting.

While their combined U.S. market share remains under 1%, according to Consumer Edge, Temu and Shein accounted for more than 30% of the 1.5 million daily tariff-free shipments to the U.S. last year, based on congressional reports and customs data.

The loss of the de minimis privilege, long criticized by U.S. lawmakers as an unfair advantage, has bipartisan support. In 2023, 1.4 billion packages entered the U.S. under the provision, up from 140 million in 2013, customs authorities report.

Amazon and U.S. Retailers Eye Opportunity

Amazon, which has faced margin pressure from the deep discounts offered by its Chinese rivals, is already adjusting. Last November, the e-commerce giant quietly launched Haul, a sub-platform for products under $20, in what many viewed as a direct response to Temu and Shein.

Now, with tariffs set to level the playing field, U.S. retailers may see an opening to reclaim market share, though it could come at the cost of higher prices for consumers.

As Trump’s administration pushes ahead with additional levies that could raise tariffs on certain Chinese goods to as high as 245%, the road ahead for Chinese e-commerce upstarts looks steeper.