In our payrolls preview we said that contrary to whisper expectations of a 122K number, and even more widespread mumbled expectations of a negative print, the actual February number would “not be as bad as feared” (contrary to last month when we correctly warned the number would be a disaster), and sure enough moments ago the BLS reported that in February the US added 151K jobs, up from the (downward revised) 125K in January, just below the consensus estimate and well above the whisper number.

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for December was revised up by 16,000, from +307,000 to +323,000, and the change for January was revised down by 18,000, from +143,000 to +125,000. With these revisions, employment in December and January combined is 2,000 lower than previously reported.

The unemployment rate rose to 4.1%, from 4.0% in January, just above the consensus estimate of 4.0% as the number of  unemployed people, at 7.1 million, was little changed little in February. The unemployment rate has remained in a narrow range of 4.0 percent to 4.2 percent since May 2024. Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for Whites (3.8%) increased in February. The jobless rates for adult men (3.8%), adult women (3.8%), teenagers (12.9%), Blacks (6.0%), Asians (3.2%), and Hispanics (5.2%) showed little change over the month.

Looking at the household survey, the number of employed workers dropped by 588K after soaring in January; the number of unemployed workers rose by 203K from 6.849MM to 7.052MM.

Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 10 cents, or 0.3%, to $35.93, in line with estimates. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 4.0%, below the 4.1% expected. In February, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose by 9 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $30.89. In February, the average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 34.1 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 33.6 hours.

Some more details from the report:

• The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more), at 1.5 million, changed little in February. The long-term unemployed accounted for 20.9 percent of all unemployed people.
• The employment-population ratio decreased by 0.2 percentage point to 59.9 percent in February but showed little change from a year earlier. The labor force participation rate, at 62.4 percent, changed little over the month and over the year.
• The number of people employed part time for economic reasons increased by 460,000 to 4.9 million in February. These individuals would have preferred full-time employment but were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs.
• The number of people not in the labor force who currently want a job increased by 414,000 to 5.9 million in February. These individuals were not counted as unemployed because they were not actively looking for work during the 4 weeks preceding the survey or were unavailable to take a job.
• Among those not in the labor force who wanted a job, the number of people marginally attached to the labor force, at 1.7 million, changed little in February. These individuals wanted and were available for work and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months but had not looked for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. The number of discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached who believed that no jobs were available for them, decreased by 128,000 to 464,000 in February.

Digging deeper we find that manufacturing jobs, a closely tracked category, increased by 10K, the first increase since November.

Here is the full breakdown of jobs by sector:

• Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 151,000 in February, similar to the average monthly gain of 168,000 over the prior 12 months. In February, employment trended up in health care, financial activities, transportation and warehousing, and social assistance. Federal government employment declined.
• Health care added 52,000 jobs in February, in line with the average monthly gain of 54,000 over the prior 12 months. In February, job growth continued in ambulatory health care services (+26,000), hospitals (+15,000), and nursing and residential care facilities (+12,000).
• Employment in financial activities rose by 21,000 in February, above the prior 12-month average gain (+5,000). Over the month, employment continued to trend up in real estate and rental and leasing (+10,000) and insurance carriers and related activities (+5,000). Commercial banking lost 5,000 jobs.
• Transportation and warehousing employment continued to trend up in February (+18,000), in line with the average monthly gain over the prior 12 months (+13,000). Over the month, job growth occurred in couriers and messengers (+24,000) and air transportation (+4,000).
• Employment in social assistance continued to trend up in February (+11,000), below the average monthly gain over the prior 12 months (+21,000). Over the month, employment continued to trend up in individual and family services (+10,000).
• Within government, federal government employment declined by 10,000 in February.
• Employment in retail trade changed little over the month (-6,000) and has shown little net change over the year. In February, employment in food and beverage retailers declined by 15,000, largely due to strike activity. Warehouse clubs, supercenters, and other general merchandise retailers added 10,000 jobs.  
• Employment showed little change over the month in other major industries, including mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction; construction; manufacturing; wholesale trade; information; professional and business services; leisure and hospitality; and other services.

And visually:

Commenting on the report, Lindsay Rosner, head of multisector fixed income investing at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, weighs in: “To sum it up: Today’s print wasn’t as bad as feared. The payrolls growth surprised slightly to the downside and the unemployment rate ticked up, justifying the momentum that’s been building for a resumption in the Fed’s cutting cycle.”

Developing…

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

A CBS News poll finds that the vast majority of Americans related to President Trump’s Congressional address and viewed it very favourably from multiple angles.

As we earlier highlighted, Democrats thoroughly embarrassed themselves during Trump’s address, screeching and holding up puerile slogans on paddles.

They sat with faces like a smacked arse refusing to applaud or force smiles even for a kid with brain cancer.

Even king leftist clown Stephen Colbert admitted they came across as pathetic.

Even king of leftist cringe Colbert says the Democrats are pathetic. pic.twitter.com/mkexXsd2X8

— m o d e r n i t y (@ModernityNews) March 5, 2025

But it gets even worse for them.

Poll of Trump’s 2025 joint address to Congress finds large majority of viewers approve. https://t.co/16SIv5dMEq

— CBS News (@CBSNews) March 5, 2025

CBS News reports “This CBS News/YouGov survey interviewed a nationally representative sample of speech watchers immediately following the president’s address to Congress. Most speech viewers described the president as ‘presidential,’ ‘inspiring’ and more ‘unifying’ than ‘divisive.’ A big majority also called it ‘entertaining.’”

CBS News poll: Large majority of viewers approve of Donald Trump’s speech (among speech watchers)

🟢 Approve: 76% (+53)
🔴 Disapprove: 23%https://t.co/qb27ivfUTD pic.twitter.com/TuXQxakFxI

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) March 5, 2025

While Democrats threw screeching hissy fits, the vast majority of Americans approved of Trump’s messages during the Congressional address. Shows you how disconnected from America Dems are. pic.twitter.com/b1UNU8JhBd

— m o d e r n i t y (@ModernityNews) March 5, 2025

The survey found the following…

– 77% support Trump’s plan to cut government waste and spending.

– 77% back his immigration and border policies.

– 76% approve of Trump’s speech.

– 76% approve of removing congressmen who interrupted his speech.

– 74% say his speech was presidential.

– 73% support his stance on Russia and Ukraine.

– 68% say it made them feel hopeful and proud.

– 68% say he has a clear plan to tackle inflation.

– 68% say he accurately described America’s crime crisis.

– 63% say he focused on issues they care about.

Now can we please have one more poll…

Turns out that common sense is actually very popular…

— Matt Van Swol (@matt_vanswol) March 5, 2025

Who are they?

I am confused about the Democrats. What do they stand for?

Not a child recovering from cancer.
Not our military.
Not a secure border.
Not safe streets.
Not manufacturing coming back to US.
Not the reduction of government waste.
Not for women.
Not reduction of taxes…

— Patriot Tom (@The_Spectre6) March 5, 2025

This is who they are…

This is who they are. https://t.co/EdZfnSNBv5

— m o d e r n i t y (@ModernityNews) March 5, 2025

*  *  *

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

US equity futures erased a modest rebound from yesterday’s 1.8% rout ahead of today’s 8:30am jobs report and Powell’s 12:30pm speech. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures were unchanged and well off session highs, while Nasdaq futures rose 0.1%, with Mag 7 names mixed, led by NVDA’s +1.4% pre-market gain after the bullish AVGO (+13%)  earnings. Underscoring the growing risk aversion in the markets, stocks failed to stage a rebound even after Trump delayed levies on Mexican and Canadian goods covered by the North American trade deal. Europe’s Stoxx 600 falls 0.7% following a broadly weaker session for Asian stocks as Trump’s shifting approach to trade tariffs hampers risk sentiment. Bond yields are lower as is the USD, although off session lows. Commodities are actually higher for once led by oil (WTI +1.6%) and base metals (Aluminum +1.4%; Copper +1.6%). In crypto, Bitcoin slumped after Trump signed an executive order to create a strategic Bitcoin reserve that failed to meet market expectations. Today, we will hear the payroll data at 8:30am ET. Consensus looks for +160k vs. +120k whisper (143k prior); the UR is expected to remain at 4.0% vs. 4.0% prior and Hourly Earnings to print 0.3% vs. 0.5% prior.

In premarket trading, Broadcom (AVGO) shares jumped 11% after the chipmaker reported first-quarter results that beat expectations and gave an outlook that is seen as strong, reassuring investors about the demand prospects for AI-related infrastructure. In sympathy, chip stocks gained: Micron (MU) +1.3%, Applied Materials (AMAT) +1% and AMD +0.5%. Nvidia led gains among the Magnificent Seven stocks (Nvidia +1.4%, Apple -0.3%, Tesla -0.4%, Microsoft -0.3%; Meta, Amazon and Alphabet little changed). Here are other notable premarket movers:

• Hewlett Packard Enterprise shares sink 20% after the maker of servers gave an outlook that is weaker than expected. The company also said it would eliminate about 3,000 jobs
• Gap shares rise 18% after the retailer reported comparable sales in all brands that topped Wall Street expectations
• Walgreens Boots Alliance is trading 5.7% after the US drugstore chain agreed to be purchased by Sycamore Partners for $10 billion
• Intuitive Machines shares tumble 34%, extending losses after Thursday’s 20% selloff, as the space firm believes its second lander may be in the wrong orientation on the moon
• Bigbear.ai shares slide 13% after the software company reported fourth-quarter results that are weaker than expected

US employers likely added 160,000 jobs last month, showcasing a labor market holding steady in the face of mounting policy uncertainty, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg, although as UBS notes, the whisper number is well lower, at around 122,000 (our full preview can be found here). 

On Thursday, Wall Street failed to stage a rebound even after President Donald Trump delayed levies on Mexican and Canadian goods covered by the North American trade deal. The back-and-forth on tariffs “is creating a lot of uncertainty and that is showing up not only in markets, which have become quite volatile, but also in forward looking leading indicators, such as surveys and purchasing managers indexes,” said Florian Ielpo at Lombard Odier. “For now the hard data remains good, but the soft data is deteriorating, and the question is which one is correct.”

After the jobs report there is another notable highlight: Fed Chair Jerome Powell is slated to speak at a monetary policy forum at 12:30pm.

Bitcoin, meanwhile, sank as much as 5.7% and four other digital tokens that had previously been highlighted by Trump fell at least 3%, as a potential lack of new buying weighed on the market. The executive order signed by Trump indicated that the government wouldn’t use taxpayer money to fund a strategic reserve of the largest digital asset. Instead, the reserve would be capitalized with Bitcoin already owned by the federal government. Here are some of the biggest movers on Friday:

• UMG shares rise as much as 6.3% as the music label reported higher-than-expected revenue from subscriptions, an important line that contributed to over one third of the firm’s sales.
• Elia shares jump as much as 19%, marking its biggest daily gain on record, after the electricity transmission company posted results and guidance that trumped expectations.
• Vivendi shares rise as much as 4.5% after the French media firm said its intention is to sell its stake in Telecom Italia when it gets good terms.
• Ferragamo shares slump as much as 19% after the Italian luxury goods maker reported a wider-than-expected loss for the full year and gave an outlook that analysts said was cautious, stoking worries over subdued demand.
• Just Group shares fall as much as 17%, the most since March 2020, after the UK financial services company’s adjusted earnings came in well below estimates.
• Zurich Airport shares fall as much as 6%, the most since August. The company gave cautious guidance, held back by lower retail revenues due to shop closures and higher labor costs, according to Stifel.
• SFS shares fall as much as 8.6% after the Swiss mechanical fastening systems and components maker reports results that were below expectations.
• Hensoldt shares fall as much as 8.2% after Kepler Cheuvreux downgraded the German defense company’s shares to reduce, saying the speed at which the share is discounting the future is “dangerous” and underplays execution risks.

Europe’s Stoxx 600 falls 0.7% following a broadly weaker session for Asian stocks as US President Donald Trump’s shifting approach to trade tariffs hampers risk sentiment. Consumer product and travel shares are leading declines in Europe as the euro extends its post-ECB rally, climbing 0.7% to ~$1.0860. While Europe’s stock benchmark retreated on Friday, Germany’s historic shift toward increased spending helped put the euro on track for its best week since 2009. The prospect of more debt issuance hoisted yields on German bonds by the most since 1990 earlier in the week. The rate on 10-year bunds was little changed on Friday at 2.83%.

Asian stocks fell after US President Donald Trump’s whipsaw tariff announcements added uncertainty to global markets, with Japan and Australia leading declines. The MSCI AC Asia Pacific Index slid as much as 1%. Still, the measure is on track to cap its best week since September on positive signals for China from the National People’s Congress. Japan and Australia’s benchmarks dropped the most in the region. Trump’s order to delay tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods covered by the North American trade agreement is doing little to assuage investors’ concerns on increasing unpredictability in markets. Japan’s export-sensitive electronic stocks, Sony Group and Nintendo, were among the biggest drags on the regional gauge, while US-exposed Macquarie Group also slipped. “Further escalation of trade tensions – such as new tariffs or breakdowns in talks – could spur more market volatility and downside for trade-sensitive stocks,” said Josh Gilbert, a market analyst at eToro in Sydney. “Sectors like autos, aerospace, technology hardware, apparel, and agriculture are especially sensitive.”

In commodities, oil prices advance, with WTI rising 1.4% to $67.30. Spot gold gains $6 to around $2,918/oz. Bitcoin falls 1% to around $89,000 after Trump’s crypto executive order disappointed

Looking at the US event calendar, today’s data calendar includes February jobs report (8:30am) and January consumer credit (3pm). Fed speaker slate includes Bowman (10:15am), Williams (10:45am), Kugler (12:20pm, 1pm) and Powell giving keynote speech on the economic outlook (12:30pm).

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures up 0.4% to 5,768.75
• STOXX Europe 600 down 0.5% to 553.18
• MXAP down 0.8% to 188.13
• MXAPJ down 0.6% to 591.18
• Nikkei down 2.2% to 36,887.17
• Topix down 1.6% to 2,708.59
• Hang Seng Index down 0.6% to 24,231.30
• Shanghai Composite down 0.3% to 3,372.55
• Sensex little changed at 74,384.75
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.8% to 7,948.17
• Kospi down 0.5% to 2,563.48
• German 10Y yield little changed at 2.82%
• Euro up 0.7% to $1.0863
• Brent Futures up 1.4% to $70.42/bbl
• Gold spot up 0.3% to $2,921.77
• US Dollar Index down 0.45% to 103.60

Top Overnight News

• US President Trump will sign executive orders today at 14:30EST/19:30GMT and deliver remarks at the White House Digital Assets Summit at 15:00EST/20:00GMT
• US House Speaker Johnson aims to hold a CR vote on Tuesday and expects it will pass, while the CR text could be released as soon as Friday.
• The United States is planning to charge fees for docking at U.S. ports on any ship that is part of a fleet that includes Chinese-built or Chinese-flagged vessels and will push allies to act similarly or face retaliation, a draft executive order stated. RTRS
• Ontario Premier Doug Ford is steaming ahead with his pledge to impose 25 percent tariffs on electricity sent to the United States starting Monday, despite President Donald Trump’s decision to suspend most tariffs on Mexico and Canada Thursday afternoon. Politico
• US President Trump sent a letter to Iran urging negotiations: Fox Business
• The Trump administration believes that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has apologized for his recent behavior, and top U.S. officials are prepared to meet with Ukrainian officials in Saudi Arabia next week to set the stage for potential peace talks between Kyiv and Moscow. WSJ
• Fed’s Bostic (2027 voter) said the economy is in incredible flux and hard to know where things will land, while he added that if they wait for trends to show up in national economic data before acting, they could be too late. Bostic also said he would be surprised if they get a lot of clarity on the impact of policies before late spring into summer and noted the decision at the May or June meeting will depend on how clear things get
• Mexico will review its levies on Chinese shipments, President Claudia Sheinbaum said — a possible win for Donald Trump’s “Fortress North America” push. BBG
• The Fed’s Raphael Bostic said it could take several months to understand how Trump’s policies will affect the economy, suggesting rates may remain steady until late spring. BBG
• China’s trade numbers fall short of expectations for the Jan/Feb period, w/exports rising 2.3% (vs. the Street +5.9%) while imports sink 8.4% (vs. the Street +1%). RTRS
• China’s exports hit a record $540 billion in the first two months of 2025 as tariffs drove the frontloading of shipments. Bloomberg Economics said a surprise drop in imports hints at domestic weakness. BBG
• BOJ officials will likely hold policy steady this month, but could discuss whether another rate hike is needed at the May meeting given continued upside inflation pressures. RTRS

Tariffs/Trade

• US President Trump posted on Truth “After speaking with President Sheinbaum of Mexico, I have agreed that Mexico will not be required to pay Tariffs on anything that falls under the USMCA Agreement. This Agreement is until April 2nd”. It was later reported that Trump signed the amendment to Mexico and Canada tariffs to make USMCA-compliant products exempt from levies until April 2nd.
• US President Trump said most tariffs are to start April 2nd and predominant tariffs will be reciprocal, while he said steel and aluminium tariffs will not be modified. Trump cited a little short-term interruption on tariffs and said tariffs are something the US has to do. Trump said he is not even looking at the market and noted the long-term economy is very strong. Furthermore, Trump said there is no USMCA exemption for auto tariffs next month, according to Reuters.
• White House said President Trump’s exemption on 25% tariffs on most goods from Canada and Mexico is not retroactive, while officials noted that some automakers think they will need to pay 25% tariffs on three days of imports.
• US President Trump sent a letter to Iran urging negotiations: Fox Business
• Fed’s Bostic (2027 voter) said the economy is in incredible flux and hard to know where things will land, while he added that if they wait for trends to show up in national economic data before acting, they could be too late.
• US House Speaker Johnson aims to hold a CR vote on Tuesday and expects it will pass, while the CR text could be released as soon as Friday.
• Canada’s Finance Minister said Canada will delay the second wave of tariffs on CAD 125bln of US products until April 2nd.
• US Commerce Secretary Lutnick informed Brazilian Vice President Alckmin in a call that the US could postpone tariffs on Brazilian goods, while Alckmin believes Brazil and the US could reach a good understanding on tariffs policy through dialogue and noted the sides agreed to hold further bilateral talks in the coming days.
• US is to impose fees on any vessel entering US ports that are part of a fleet which includes vessels built or flagged in China and the US is to engage allies to impose similar measures or risk US retaliation, according to draft order.
• Chinese Foreign Minister Wang said the abuse of fentanyl is an issue that the US has to solve and noted regarding US-China relations that if one side exerts pressure, China will resolutely counter that. Furthermore, Wang Yi said China’s economy grew 5% last year despite the pressure of unilateral US sanctions.
• UK Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds vowed to ‘stand up’ for British steel as US tariffs loom, according to FT.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newqsuawk

APAC stocks were mostly lower as the region followed suit to the losses stateside amid growth concerns, tech weakness and tariff uncertainty, while participants digested Chinese trade data and braced for US jobs data. ASX 200 retreated below the 8,000 level with the declines led by tech following the rout in US counterparts and with the top-weighted financial sector also suffering firm losses. Nikkei 225 underperformed and dipped to sub-37,000 territory in early trade with weakness in tech stocks dragging the index lower, while long-term Japanese yields continued to rise. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp initially bucked the trend despite the weaker-than-expected Exports and Imports data from China, while there were recent support pledges by the nation’s central bank, finance and securities heads including PBoC Governor Pan who said they will study and establish new structural policy tools, as well as cut interest rates and banks’ RRR at the appropriate time. However, the benchmarks ultimately succumbed to the broader risk tone.

Top Asian News

• BoJ is seen keeping policy steady at this month’s meeting, although three sources familiar with its thinking said inflationary pressures from wage gains and prolonged food price rises could prompt discussion of another hike as soon as May.. Thereafter, BoJ is reportedly leaning towards holding the key rate at the March meeting, via Bloomberg citing sources; wishes to monitor the January hike and impact of US policies
• South Korean court cancelled the arrest of South Korea President Yoon although Yoon’s lawyer said he won’t immediately be released as prosecutors can appeal, while the Presidential Office said it hopes Yoon will return to work soon.

European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.8%) began the session entirely in the red, and continued to trundle lower in early morning trade; price action has been relatively choppy, with focus now on US NFP. European sectors hold a strong negative bias. Telecoms is leading today, albeit modestly so; newsflow for the industry has been light aside from EU Defence Commissioner Kubilius saying it is possible to replace Starlink in Ukraine quickly. Consumer Products is the clear underperformer today, with particular weakness in the Luxury after Chinese trade data and Ferragamo results. US equity futures are modestly firmer footing; the lift in sentiment today could be attributed to the strong Broadcom results; Co. shares are up 12% in pre-market trade after reporting strong AI-demand in Q1, where profits and sales topped expectations. The highlight of the day is the US jobs report for February, where the pace of payroll additions is seen at 160k (vs 143k in January), the jobless rate is seen unchanged at 4.0%, while average earnings are seen unchanged at 41% Y/Y. Tesla (TSLA) added to “best ideas list” at Wedbush.

Top European News

• EU is to explore long-term reform of fiscal rules for defence, while it was separately reported that Spanish PM Sanchez said Spain to bring forward the timeline to reach 2% of GDP defence spending.
• ECB’s Villeroy says we are winning the battle with inflation; ECB must be ready to act and react.
• ECB’s Muller says euro-area inflation is nearing the ECB’s 2% target, via Bloomberg. Too early to assess the potential impact of US tariffs. Trade restrictions would dampen growth and increase prices. Emphasizes increased caution regarding future rate cuts.
• UK Chancellor Reeves met with primary dealer firms in the Gilt market on 6th March; reiterated a commitment to fiscal rules and that growth is the number one priority for the government.

FX

• USD’s miserable run for the week has extended into Friday trade. DXY started the week off around the 107.56 mark but has since ripped through its 200DMA to the downside at 104.99 and printed a YTD trough at 103.56. Ahead, US NFP and of course any updates from President Trump regarding trade.
• This week’s monster rally in the EUR has continued into today’s session with the pair printing a fresh YTD Peak at 1.0871. Upside this week has stemmed from the recent spending pledges coming out of Germany, a hawkish tweak to ECB guidance and an ongoing slew of soft data releases out of the US. On the ECB, source reporting in the aftermath of the decision noted that some officials see an increasing chance of a rate in April with 2.5% unlikely to be the terminal rate. Others on the GC see a growing chance of a pause in their easing cycle at their next meeting before rates come down again. Attention is now on a test of 1.09; not breached since 6th Nov.
• Overnight, USD/JPY traded on both sides of the 148.00 level before ultimately moving lower alongside the risk-off mood in APAC. In terms of domestic newsflow, source reporting via Bloomberg noted that the BoJ is reportedly leaning towards holding the key rate at the March meeting as it wishes to monitor the January hike and impact of US policies. Furthermore, it sees recent wage developments as being within expectations. The downside in USD/JPY has led to another YTD trough for the pair at 147.20.
• GBP is on the front foot vs. the USD once again and has printed another YTD peak at 1.2925. As has been the case throughout the week, fresh macro drivers for the UK have been lacking and therefore it is the USD leg of the equation that has been the primary driver for Cable. The pair has soared from the 1.2577 opening price on Monday, clearing its 200DMA at 1.2785 and made its way onto a 1.29 handle.
• Antipodeans are both bucking the trend of other majors and are on the backfoot vs. the USD. Price action takes place in the context of the risk-off mood in APAC trade and as participants digested the latest trade figures from Australia and New Zealand’s largest trading partner, China which showed a surprise contraction in imports and a miss on exports.
• CAD is flat vs. the USD following a heavy day of tariff-related newsflow yesterday. To recap, Trump signed an amendment to Mexico and Canada tariffs to make USMCA-compliant products exempt from levies until April 2nd. However, there will be no USMCA exemption for auto tariffs next month, steel and aluminium tariffs will not be modified and April 2nd reciprocal tariffs will still go ahead. On net, the announcements have provided some reprieve for CAD. Ahead, the region’s own jobs data.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1705 vs exp. 7.2406 (prev. 7.1692).

Fixed Income

• Bunds are firmer in a modest bounce from recent significant pressure. At best, Bunds have been to a 128.18 peak with gains of 116 ticks at best. A move which is likely a modest paring of recent extensive downside and also a function of the downbeat European equity risk tone. Bunds in the morning got hit by a very soft Industrial Output report for January which printed outside of the forecast range and sparked immediate pressure of around 30 ticks in Bunds to the eventual 127.54 trough. A move which was potentially spurred by the soft Industrial data justifying the fiscal measures outlined by incoming Chancellor Merz earlier in the week.
• USTs are firmer but in a narrower 110-25 to 111-03 band. Benchmarks benefitting from the uptick in Bunds as discussed above, more sources pointing to the BoJ potentially remaining on hold in March (pricing has a 96% chance of no move implied) and mainly waiting for Payrolls & Powell. That aside, following the concessions on tariffs by Trump on Thursday we are keenly awaiting any fresh updates to this for/from Canada and Mexico in addition to and perhaps more pertinently anything relating to China.
• Gilts find themselves following suit with broader price action but caught between USTs and Bunds in terms of magnitudes. Currently back below the 92.00 mark but has been above the figure in a 91.73-92.13 band. Specifics for the region light with the initial bias a bullish one on account of the above and indeed Gilts opened higher by around 33 ticks.

Commodities

• Crude is on a firmer footing and currently trade just off session highs, with both WTI currently higher by circa USD 0.98/bbl thus far; support today lacks a clear driver, but with upside coinciding with strength at the European cash open. Brent’May currently trading at the top end of USD 69.30-70.50/bbl range. Russian Deputy PM Novak said OPEC+ is to raise oil output from April, but might reverse that decision afterwards if there are imbalances in the market. This sparked little move in the complex.
• Natgas prices began the morning softer, but jumped on news that a Russian attack “significantly” damaged Ukraine’s gas production facilities; which caused operations to cease. Dutch TTF currently higher by around 4%.
• Spot gold traded sideways overnight, but picked up a touch in European trade, fuelled by the weaker dollar, and ahead of the US NFP report. The yellow metal is firmer by 0.3%, above the USD 2900/oz mark, and within a USD 2,896.83-2,923.06/oz range on the session.
• Copper futures are subdued amid the mostly negative risk tone, with its biggest buyer, China, printing weaker-than-expected trade data.
• Russia Deputy PM Novak says OPEC+ is to raise oil output from April, but might reverse that decision afterwards if there are imbalances in the market. OPEC+ decision to raise output due to seasonal rise in demand. Oil flows via CPC are at reduced volumes after recent drone attacks, pumping will depend on production level. Russia’s oil output is well below OPEC+ quota in February, will be taken into account within the deal. Russia aims to fully comply with OPEC+ deal. Says parties subject to the deal will analyse possibility to speed up compensation for previous overproduction.
• Qatar set April Marine Crude OSP at Oman/Dubai plus USD 2.10/bbl April Land Crude OSP at Oman/Dubai plus USD 1.85/bbl.
• Saudi Arabia has set the April Arab light crude oil OSP at Asia at plus USD 3.50bbl vs. Oman/Dubai average, according to documentation cited by Reuters
• UBS sees price level of USD 1000/oz for Palladium in 2025; expects a deficit of around 300k/oz, or 3% demand in 2025; expects it to remain a laggard in the precious metals space.
• China Feb Foreign reserves USD 3.227tln (exp. USD 3.229tln); gold reserves USD 208.6bln (prev. USD 296.5bln).
• Ukraine’s Energy firm DTEK says Russian attack significantly damaged its gas production facilities in Ukraine’s Poltava region; these facilities have ceased operations after the attack.
• Kazakhstan ships 100k T of oil to Germany via Druzhba pipeline in Feb, according to IFAX citing Kaztransoil.
• Kazakhstan Energy Minister says their oil output is above OPEC+ quotas; has tasked oil majors to cut oil production. Intend to optimise oil output in March. To cut oil export via the CPC. Consultations will be held next week in the US with the CEOs of major shareholders in big oil projects in Kazakhstan. Told major oilfield shareholders, ExxonMobil (XOM), Shell (SHEL LN), TotalEnergies (TTE FP) to cut March volumes, was received well.
• UBS sees price level of USD 1000/oz for Palladium in 2025; expects a deficit of around 300k/oz, or 3% demand in 2025; expects it to remain a laggard in the precious metals space.
• Saudi Arabia has set the April Arab light crude oil OSP at Asia at plus USD 3.50bbl vs. Oman/Dubai average, according to documentation cited by Reuters.
• Bank of America reiterates its unchanged USD 60-80/bbl medium-term forecast range for Brent.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Russia’s Kremlin say they are closely monitoring EU defence initiatives and warn they may need to implement necessary countermeasures to safeguard Russian national securitySays Trump’s call for denuclearisation is on the agenda. Dialogue with the US on arms control is essential.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukraine and the US are to have a meaningful meeting next week and that Ukraine seeks a truce for air strikes and sea operations, while he added that Russia needs to release POWs to establish trust. Zelensky also said he will meet with the Saudi Crown Prince next week, and then the Ukraine team will remain in Saudi for a meeting with US officials.

Geopolitics: Other

• French President Macron said he was approached all day by other EU leaders to discuss the nuclear deterrence offer and technical talks will start on nuclear deterrence with EU leaders in which he hopes to see new cooperation by the end of the first half of 2025. Furthermore, Macron said Russia reacted the way it did to his speech because what he said is true and that Putin was piqued because they know his game, while he said he will talk with Putin once it is decided it is the right time.
• Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said the international situation in 2025 remains full of challenges, while he added that China and Russia have established a new model of major-country relations and their relationship will not be disturbed by third parties. Wang also stated that Taiwan has never been a country and it never will be, as well as noted they should realise the complete ‘reunification’ of the motherland.

US Event Calendar

• 08:30: Feb. Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, est. 160,000, prior 143,000
  • Feb. Change in Private Payrolls, est. 146,000, prior 111,000
  • Feb. Change in Manufact. Payrolls, est. 2,000, prior 3,000
  • Feb. Unemployment Rate, est. 4.0%, prior 4.0%
  • Feb. Underemployment Rate, prior 7.5%
  • Feb. Labor Force Participation Rate, est. 62.6%, prior 62.6%
  • Feb. Average Hourly Earnings MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.5%
  • Feb. Average Hourly Earnings YoY, est. 4.1%, prior 4.1%
  • Feb. Average Weekly Hours All Emplo, est. 34.2, prior 34.1
• 15:00: Jan. Consumer Credit, est. $14.9b, prior $40.8b

Central Banks

• 10:15: Fed’s Bowman Speaks on Policy Transmission
• 10:45: Fed’s Williams Speaks on Panel on Policy Transmission
• 12:20: Fed’s Kugler Speaks on Rebalancing Labor Markets
• 12:30: Fed’s Powell Speaks on the Economic Outlook
• 13:00: Fed’s Kugler Appears on Panel Discussion

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Welcome to the end of what has been a tumultuous week for markets, as I step in for Jim who should be in the air just south of Greenland when this hits your mailboxes. Fierce cold winds were again blowing in US equity markets yesterday, with ongoing trade policy volatility sending the S&P 500 (-1.78%) to its worst day of 2025 for a second time this week. This came even as President Trump announced a tariff delay for USMCA-compliant goods coming from Mexico and then, later in the day, from Canada. Over in Europe, it was a quieter session, with the ECB delivering its fifth consecutive 25bps cut, but leaving open the possibility of a pause, while longer-dated yields continued to grind higher after their historical rise the previous day.

Kicking off with tariffs, yesterday President Trump signed orders delaying until April 2 tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada that meet USMCA requirements, which should exempt about half of the goods affected by the new 25% tariffs. So a sizeable but partial rollback, though the share of exempt goods might rise as companies seek to adjust to the new rules. The coverage under USMCA trade agreement, which was renegotiated in President Trump’s first term, relates mostly to rules of origin requirements, so the partial exemption could be seen as addressing concerns over re-imports from third countries. Still, with this being a delay rather than a lasting exemption and with reciprocal tariffs also expected to be announced after April 2, this leaves plenty of lingering tariff uncertainty. The trade rhetoric remained tense vis-à-vis Canada in particular, with Canada’s outgoing Prime Minister Trudeau saying earlier in the day that we will be “in a trade war that was launched by the United States for the foreseeable future.” By contrast, President Trump made more conciliatory comments towards Mexico President Sheinbaum, who said later on that her country would “review the tariffs that we have with China”.

The ongoing uncertainty dragged on equities, as the S&P 500 (-1.78%) fell back to levels seen before the US election. In another volatile session, the index traded -1.65% lower early on before recovering to only -0.5% after comments from Commerce Secretary Lutnick that a USMCA-compliant delay was likely, but sentiment then soured again after the move was confirmed as the noisy policy signals seemed to add to the risk-off tone. In fact, yesterday marked the sixth session in a row that the S&P 500 moved more than 1% in either direction, the longest such run since November 2020. Reflecting this volatility, the VIX rose to a new YTD high (+2.94pts to 24.87). Underperformance by tech stocks saw the NASDAQ (-2.64%) join the Magnificent 7 (-2.89%) in technical correction territory, with the index down -10.43% from its mid-December high. For the Mag-7 the decline was led by slumps for Nvidia (-5.74%) and Tesla (-5.61%), with the two companies now down -26% and -45% from their recent peaks.

Amid the risk-off tone, rates markets moved to again price a full three Fed cuts by the December meeting (+5.9bps to 76bps). In turn, short-dated Treasuries rallied, with 2yr yield down -4.6bps to 3.96%, while the 10yr yield (-0.1bps) was little changed at 4.28%. These rate moves came despite mostly patient commentary from Fed officials. Philadelphia Fed President Harker said he is growing more concerned that the slowing in inflation “is at risk”. Fed Governor Waller viewed a March cut as unlikely but saw room for two, or possibly three, rate cuts this year. And later on, Atlanta Fed President Bostic said that when it comes to policy of the new administration he would be “surprised if we got a lot of clarity before the late spring into summer”. Treasury yields are trading another 2-3bps lower overnight as I type.

Looking forward to today, the main event is the US jobs report, which should get even greater attention given the recent softening in US data. Our US economists expect payrolls to gain +160k in February, up from 143k in January. They see the unemployment rate staying at 4.0% but hourly earnings growth returning to +0.3% from +0.5% in January. Ahead of the payrolls print, yesterday weekly jobless claims sent a fairly upbeat signal on the US labour market. Initial claims fell to 221k (vs 233k expected) in the week ending March 1, reversing an earlier spike, though continuing claims for the prior week surprised to the upside (1897k vs 1874k expected).

Back to yesterday and in Europe, the main story was the ECB rates decision, which delivered another 25bps cut bringing the deposit rate to 2.50%, with 150bps of cuts now delivered since last June. But the cut was accompanied by a few hawkish tweaks. The policy statement noted that the policy stance has become “meaningfully less restrictive”, with President Lagarde no longer emphasizing a lower “direction of travel” on rates and acknowledging that a pause at the next meeting in late April was an option. More generally, uncertainty was the dominant word of the day, with Lagarde stressing a data-dependent meeting-by-meeting policy approach. Later on, Bloomberg reported that ECB officials were preparing for tough talks over whether to cut at the next meeting. Our European economists see another rate cut in April as more likely than not, based on an assumption of a shock from US tariffs on Europe in early April. Notably, even as the ECB’s GDP projections were downgraded yesterday, they have not yet incorporated any US tariffs on Europe. See our economists’ full reaction here.
Rates markets initially took a hawkish read on the ECB’s decision, with overnight index swaps for end-2025 rising by around +7bps by the end of Largarde’s press conference but this move reversed later on, with December OIS pricing down -1.7bps on the day by the close. European government bond curves steepened. 2yr bund yields were largely stable (-0.4bps) but 10yr bund yields (+4.1bps) continued to grind higher after Wednesday’s historic sell-off, reaching their highest level since October 2023. 10yr OATs (+4.9bps) and BTPs (+5.8bps) underperformed, but in the UK 10yr gilts rallied (-2.7bps).

European equities had a mixed session with the Stoxx 600 trading lower for most of the day but largely recovering by the close (-0.03%). In Germany, the DAX (+1.47%) continued Wednesday’s rebound to close at a new all-time high, with the more friendly tariff headlines also helping the Stoxx Automobiles & Parts index rise +2.13% on the day. Italy’s FTSE MIB (+0.68%) and France CAC (+0.29%) posted more modest gains, while in the UK the FTSE 100 (-0.83%) saw a third consecutive decline.

The other major event in Europe was an EU summit on defence and Ukraine. EU leaders endorsed Commission proposals to temporarily exempt defence spending from fiscal rules, to work on a proposed EUR 150bn fund for defence loans for member states and to explore long-term reform of fiscal rules that had been proposed by Germany.However, Hungary’s Orban blocked a full EU-27 statement on Ukraine and the summit failed to deliver a new military aid package for Ukraine that had been floated earlier. Separately, we saw reports that senior US officials plan to meet Ukrainian counterparts in Saudi Arabia next week, with Bloomberg reporting that Washington wants to link the proposed US-Ukraine minerals deal to demands for Kyiv to commit to a quick ceasefire with Russia.

This morning in Asia equity markets are mirroring Wall Street’s overnight slump. Across the region, the Nikkei (-2.22%) is leading the losses, with the KOSPI (-0.31%) seeing a more modest decline, while the Hang Seng (+0.85%) is bucking the negative trend. Outside of Asia, US equity futures for both the S&P 500 (+0.26%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.45%) are higher overnight. In FX, the Japanese yen (+0.26%) remains on the front foot trading at 147.60, its lowest level since early October against a broadly weaker US dollar and supported by increasing expectations for more BOJ rate hikes.

Early morning data showed China’s export growth slowing more than expected, increasing by just +2.3% y/y (vs +5.9% expected) in the January-February period, marking the slowest growth since April last year. At the same time, imports surprised markets by declining -8.4% y/y in the first two months of 2025 (vs +1.0% expected), the sharpest fall since July 2023.

In other overnight news, cryptocurrencies are lower amid news that a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and a stockpile of other digital assets established by President Trump’s executive order yesterday evening will be capitalized by forfeited assets already owned by the federal government rather than any new government funding. As I type, Bitcoin is down -1.83%, though it has narrowed its losses after trading -5.7% lower.

Turning to the day ahead, the US payrolls release for February will be the main event on the data side, with Canada also releasing its own jobs report. In Europe, Germany January factory order and France January trade balance data are due. An array of Fed speakers scheduled, including Chair Powell on the economic outlook, as well as speeches by including Bowman, Williams and Kugler.

The US and Ukraine will give it another try, after the ‘missiles for minerals’ deal has faltered amid President Zelensky’s resistance to signing the deal, and the big diplomatic blow-up and spat of last Friday.

Top US and Ukrainian officials are expected to meet in Saudi Arabia next Wednesday to discuss a ceasefire effort with Russia, which will mark the first such high-level meeting since last Friday’s public spat involving Zelensky at the White House.

Not only were weapons shipments to Kiev suspended as of Monday, but US intelligence-sharing followed. Max Blumenthal of the Gray Zone has aptly commented, “Ukraine can not carry out long range attacks inside Russia without US satellite guidance and intel. This is what we meant when we said the US was waging a proxy war that tempted nuclear escalation.”

The upcoming Riyadh meeting will be led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio as well as national security advisor Mike Waltz. Andrii Yermak, head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, is expected to lead the Ukrainian delegation.

Just prior to that, on Monday, President Zelensky will be in Saudi Arabia to meet with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. This is after an initially scheduled trip for last month was canceled.

Steve Witkoff, United States Special Envoy to the Middle East has described that President Trump received a letter of regret from Zelensky just prior to his Tuesday Congressional address.

Trump saw the letter “as a good first step — there was an apology and acknowledgment that the U.S. has done so much for Ukraine and a sense of gratitude,” Witkoff said. Other sources cast this more as a ‘tacit apology’.

Crucially, this marks the first time the word ‘apology’ was used, which perhaps explains why talks with Ukraine are back on (the White House said this was a requirement).

Still, the White House has confirmed it is “pausing and reviewing all aspects” of its relationship with Ukraine, with some officials such as Walz describing this as temporary, and which is likely to be turned back on soon.

Zelensky has also confirmed Thursday, “Ukrainian and American teams have resumed work, and we hope that next week we will have a meaningful meeting.” He said he will send a delegation to meet with “military representatives of countries that are ready to make greater efforts to reliably guarantee security within the framework of ending this war.”

Some top Ukraine officials are saying there was no apology…

Zelensky won’t apologize to Trump after their White House meeting, as “there’s nothing to apologize for,” says presidential advisor Podolyak. pic.twitter.com/Qq73utk3Xz

— Clash Report (@clashreport) March 7, 2025

Ironically the last time the US delegation was in Riyadh was for a ‘successful’ first engagement with the Russian side led by FM Lavrov. US and Russia followed this with an Istanbul meeting, amid preparations for Presidents Trump and Putin to meet.

Thursday was an eventful day for America’s space industry. 

• Intuitive Machines’ six-legged Athena lander failed to land upright, marking its second unsuccessful landing.

• Meanwhile, SpaceX’s Starship mega-rocket ended in a fiery demise (Test Flight 8) over the Caribbean. However, there were some bright spots —Starship’s Super Heavy first-stage booster returned to Earth as planned and was successfully caught mid-air by massive “chopsticks.”

• Earlier in the week, Firefly Aerospace’s “Blue Ghost” lander became the first private spacecraft to land on the Moon successfully. 

Let’s begin with Intuitive Machines. Shares of the Houston-based spacecraft startup plunged 20% on Thursday, extending losses to as much as 34% in premarket trading after the Athena spacecraft landed on its side, complicating power generation from its solar panels and rendering the mission “off-nominal.”

Canaccord Genuity analyst Austin Moeller noted that Intuitive Machines had received roughly 90% of its $120 million contract for the landing. However, some milestone payments depend on the operation of payloads, including a drill to check for water or ice below the lunar surface and the first data center and cellular network on the Moon. 

Intuitive Machines says its second moon lander fell on its side for the second time. The company is one of many primed by NASA to return the United States to the moon https://t.co/Y9uUwzibKD pic.twitter.com/q8iiBKnDRc

— Reuters (@Reuters) March 7, 2025

This is Intuitive Machines’ second moon landing attempt. The previous attempt did not go as planned; the IM-1 spacecraft tipped over on its side during a hard landing last year. 

Separately, SpaceX’s Starship mega-rocket exploded in low Earth orbit during a test flight, marking its second consecutive failure this year.

Just saw Starship 8 blow up from our flight @elonmusk @SpaceX pic.twitter.com/RyDzUtXzpo

— DegenZee (@Degen_Zee) March 7, 2025

However, the Super Heavy first-stage booster successfully returned to Earth as planned and was caught in mid-air by SpaceX’s chopsticks crane.

Mechazilla has caught the Super Heavy booster! pic.twitter.com/JFeJSdnQ5x

— SpaceX (@SpaceX) March 6, 2025

“Unfortunately, this happened last time too, so we’ve got some practice now,” SpaceX spokesperson Dan Huot said on the live stream.

SpaceX provided color on what went wrong with Starship. 

During Starship’s ascent burn, the vehicle experienced a rapid unscheduled disassembly and contact was lost. Our team immediately began coordination with safety officials to implement pre-planned contingency responses.

We will review the data from today’s flight test to better…

— SpaceX (@SpaceX) March 7, 2025

And will correct it for the next flight. 

With a test like this, success comes from what we learn, and today’s flight will help us improve Starship’s reliability. We will conduct a thorough investigation, in coordination with the FAA, and implement corrective actions to make improvements on future Starship flight tests… pic.twitter.com/3ThPm0Yzky

— SpaceX (@SpaceX) March 7, 2025

Last Sunday, Firefly Aerospace’s “Blue Ghost” lander became the first private spacecraft to land on the Moon successfully. 

Blue Ghost’s shadow seen on the Moon’s surface! We’ll continue to share images and updates throughout our surface operations. #BGM1 pic.twitter.com/iP7fWOSths

— Firefly Aerospace (@Firefly_Space) March 2, 2025

America’s private space industry is heating up. 

Let’s not forget: The US leads this race because of Musk’s SpaceX, years ahead of the rest of the world (Goldman went bull on Starlink satellite part suppliers last month).

The US plans to send astronauts to the lunar surface in a series of crewed missions by the end of the decade. Musk recently stated that the first Starship mission to Mars would be in two years.

What’s the vibe these days? Well… Make Space Great Again. 

Any lingering delusions that Syria could emerge from its Western-imposed, regime-change victimhood and enter an era of peace and stability were obliterated on Thursday, as 48 people were killed in battles between supporters of the deposed Bashar al Assad government and the country’s new radical Islamist regime. As all-out civil war looms, increasingly disturbing sectarian violence has an important minority sect asking for Russian intervention to safeguard their lives. 

Insane videos coming out of Syria after the announcement of an uprising against Jolani’s regime pic.twitter.com/sizIupxiSf

— COMBATE |🇵🇷 (@upholdreality) March 7, 2025

In the town of Jableh, which lies in Syria’s coastal Latakia province, pro-Assad forces ambushed and killed 16 members of the regime’s security forces. In the ensuing retaliation, 28 pro-Assad militants and four civilians died, according to the London-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR). Latakia hold the highest concentration of Alawites — the minority sect of Islam that’s principally found in Syria, with the Assad family themselves being the most prominent members. Alawites comprise about 10% of the country’s population. Notably, the province is also home to the Russian-operated Khmeimim air base. The ambush targeted regime forces who’d carried an operation in rural Latakia aimed at arresting a former Assad government official.

The ambush was well-executed, according to a security official in Latakia. “[In] a well-planned and premeditated attack, several groups of Assad militia remnants attacked our positions and checkpoints, targeting many of our patrols in the Jableh area,” Mustafa Kneifati told German news outlet DW. Those pro-Assad forces are said to have included soldiers loyal to former Syrian army General Suheil al-Hassan, though it’s unknown whether Hassan himself participated in the battles. The fighting spanned over a period of hours, with regime security forces responding to the ambush with helicopter gunships and artillery.

Alawites in Jableh countryside defend themselves after Al-Jolani gangs attack their villages #BREAKING #BreakingNews #Syria #عاجل #سوريا #جبلة #العلويين pic.twitter.com/6mBOUOEG2f

— Al-Julani gangs (@AlJulanigangs) March 6, 2025

Thursday’s fighting may be just a precursor to something far more intense: There are reports of large convoys of regime forces moving toward the Syrian coastal region. 

The combat comes alongside rising sectarian violence, with Sunni militants victimizing Alawites who had long enjoyed peace as the Alawite Assad family ruled the country from 1971 until December 2024, when President Bashar al Assad fled as Sunni extremists took over. While the new government repeatedly warns against sectarian reprisals against Alawites, citizens say security forces themselves have engaged in executions, kidnappings and home seizures. 

Videos are circulating on social media which purportedly show the horrors being visited on the Alawites. From a grisly video that’s said to show dozens of massacred Alawites in a heap, to another that’s described as capturing Sunnis shooting at the residences of Alawites in Homs province: 

So America, Turkey and Israel helped Osama bin Laden’s guys take over Syria – what’s the worst that could happen, right?

Okay, I know you’re remembering that time Obama and Brennan created the ISIS Caliphate 10 years ago and then Iraq War III to destroy it again. Fair point. https://t.co/LvOD8Qvb1C

— Scott Horton (@scotthortonshow) March 6, 2025

…while another is said to shows an Alawite’s body being dragged behind an SUV…

HTS is dragging the bodies of Alawites behind cars in Latakia. Utterly horrific. pic.twitter.com/vE46ze7e9y

— Lindsey Snell (@LindseySnell) March 6, 202

…and this video is described as depicting civilians “armed by the Syrian government” menacing Alawite towns with loyalties to the fallen Assad government: 

Civilians ‘armed by Syrian govt’ rampage ‘to the Alawite towns’ tied to Assad — alleged social media video https://t.co/MMMLG0apAv pic.twitter.com/SBgAYB0icB

— RT (@RT_com) March 7, 2025

In addition to the Alawite ambush against regime forces, protests against the new Sunni regime erupted in several cities, including Latakia City and Tartous, with demonstrators demanding that regime forces withdraw from the area. Russia’s RT reports that Alawites are begging for Russia, the United Nations and the international community to protect them from attacks at the hands of regime forces and allies, whom they accuse of entering the coastal region “under the pretext of pursuing remnants of the [Assad] regime — while in reality, aiming to terrorize and kill the Syrian people in general and the Alawite community in particular.” 

One of their own is saying it, The New Syrian Government is Handing weapons out to Sunnis like candy in Hama to go kill alawites in the Coast ( Lattakia and Tartous ) pic.twitter.com/YlVJo7NWcy

— Rūm ☦︎ن (@Syrian_Rumm) March 7, 2025

More significantly, RT said “civil war is now official,” pointing to a public declaration that establishes a new “Military Council for the Liberation of Syria.” Among the group’s goals:  

• “Liberating all Syrian terrirtory from all occupying and terrorist forces”
• “Rebuilding strong institutions on national and democratic foundations”
•  “Protecting the lives and property of Syrian citizens”

“We call on all Syrians, from different sects, regions and ethnicities, to join our ranks and stand with us in this historical stage,” the new group wrote.  

#Breaking: Miqdad Fateh is leading rebelion of the Alawites against the new #Syrian Jihadist regime. He released this video calling on Kurds, Druze, Shias and Sunnis to fight alongside Syrian coastal resistance forces against the #HTS terrorists! pic.twitter.com/ygoz5NrqrP

— Babak Taghvaee – The Crisis Watch (@BabakTaghvaee1) March 6, 2025

Meanwhile, to the extent that Israel’s government wants Syria to become a failed state, there are smiles aplenty in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem as the chaos and bloodshed mount...  

Authored by Charles Kennedy via OilPrice.com,

The European Union’s new emissions trading system, expected to take effect in 2027, is set to hike prices for home heating and transportation, research firm BloombergNEF says in a new report.

The new EU Emissions Trading System for buildings, road transport, and small industry, dubbed ETS2, is scheduled to become fully operational in 2027.

ETS2 will cover and address the carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fuel combustion in buildings, road transport, and additional sectors, mainly small industry not covered by the existing Emissions Trading System – EU ETS.

“So far, emission reductions in those sectors have been insufficient to put the EU on a firm path towards its 2050 climate neutrality goal. The carbon price set by the ETS2 will provide a market incentive for investments in building renovations and low-emissions mobility,” the European Commission says.

Although it will be a ‘cap and trade’ system like the existing EU ETS, the ETS2 will cover emissions upstream. 

This means that it will be fuel suppliers, rather than end consumers such as households or car users, that will be required to monitor and report their emissions.

User may not pay directly, but fuel suppliers are likely to pass on the higher costs due to the carbon emissions trading.

Two years after the 2027 launch, the price of CO2 could jump to as much as $161 (149 euros) per metric ton in 2029, according to BloombergNEF’s analysis. This would be more than double the current price of CO2 under the existing EU ETS trading system for emissions from industry and power plants.

The carbon price in EU ETS2 could hike costs for road transportation by 27%, while bills for home heating could spike by as much as 41%, BNEF’s analysis has found.

“Ambitious targets and high costs risk making households and small businesses the losers,” the report reads.

As cryptocurrency continues to gain global traction, tax policies vary widely across different jurisdictions. Some countries impose steep taxes on capital gains from crypto trading, while others exempt digital assets entirely. Meanwhile, several nations have outright banned cryptocurrency transactions.

This map, via Visual Capitalist’s Bruno Venditti, illustrates the crypto capital gains tax rates for individual investors as of January 1, 2025, based on data from HelloSafe.

Countries with the Highest Crypto Taxes

Japan applies a progressive tax rate ranging from 15% to 55%, making it one of the highest-taxing nations for cryptocurrency gains.

Similarly, Denmark taxes crypto profits at rates between 37% and 52%, depending on an individual’s income bracket.

Germany, while often considered crypto-friendly, applies a 45% tax rate if assets are sold within a year. However, cryptocurrency held for more than a year is entirely tax-free.

Crypto Tax-Free Havens

Several countries have chosen to exempt cryptocurrency from taxation. These include:

• Brunei

• Cyprus

• El Salvador (which adopted Bitcoin as legal tender)

• Georgia

• Germany (if held for more than a year)

• Hong Kong

• Malaysia

• Oman

• Panama

• Saudi Arabia

• Switzerland

• United Arab Emirates

These jurisdictions either do not recognize cryptocurrency as taxable income or have policies designed to attract crypto investors and businesses.

Countries Where Crypto Is Banned

Despite its global adoption, some nations prohibit cryptocurrency transactions altogether. Often, these restrictions are based on regulatory concerns, financial stability, or religious considerations. For example, Egypt bans cryptocurrency under Islamic law.

Countries with outright crypto bans include:

• Afghanistan

• Algeria

• Bangladesh

• China

• Egypt

• Morocco

• Nepal

• Tunisia

If you liked this content, check out Dividing the World’s Gold Equally to see how much each person would get.

France is reportedly stepping up its intelligence assistance to Kiev after the Trump-ordered pause in all US intelligence-sharing this week, which was triggered by President Zelensky’s resistance to signing a minerals deal, as well as last Friday’s row involving the Ukrainian leader.

French defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu confirmed efforts to fill the gap, saying, “Our intelligence is sovereign” and that “We have intelligence that we allow Ukraine to benefit from.”

Lecornu revealed that French President Emmanuel Macron asked him to “accelerate the various French aid packages” to make up for the halt in American assistance.

As we highlighted earlier, inbound US shipments of military and transport plans had literally turned around midflight as Trump’s order came down Monday, per USA Today:

After the order was given, all U.S. weapons shipments to Ukraine came to a stop, as of 6 p.m. on Monday evening, according to a defense official. Planes carrying supplies en route to Ukraine would have had to turn around, the official said.

French defense chief Lecornu also in his comments confirmed that shipments of Ukraine-bound aid departing from Poland had been suspended, and offered as an aside that “Ukrainians, unfortunately, have learned to fight this war for three years now and know how to stockpile.”

As for intelligence-sharing, it’s also expected that other European agencies will step up help in the wake of the American withdrawal.

The US had for years helped Ukraine’s military with tracking and targeting Russian troop movements and major targets. However, the Kremlin warned the whole time of its ‘red lines’ – especially Western assistance to long-range missile strikes on Russian territory.

The suspension of U.S. intelligence sharing with Ukraine is “selective” – Kyiv has been denied data needed for deep strikes deep inside Russia.

Source: Sky News pic.twitter.com/Vei4mNAHe8

— Clash Report (@clashreport) March 5, 2025

On Wednesday a source speaking with Sky News said that in the beginning US intelligence was still trickling to Kiev on a selective bases, but later confirmed, “A few hours ago, the exchange of all information was stopped.”

CIA director John Ratcliffe called the suspension a “pause” – while national security adviser Mike Waltz said Washington had “taken a step back” regarding this close relationship with Kiev. But yesterday in a televised speech Macron took a very hawkish tone, claiming that Putin threatens all of Europe and that France is mulling extending its nuclear umbrella across the European continent.

Authored by Victor Davis Hanson,

Fable One: Donald Trump Is Appeasing Russia?

Who wiped out the Wagner group in Syria? Who sold offensive weapons to Ukraine first? Who warned Germany not to become dependent on the Russian Nord Stream II deal?

Who withdrew from an unfair missile deal with the Russians? Who cajoled and berated NATO members to meet their military investment promises made following the 2014 invasion of Ukraine?

In contrast, who originally conceived a Russian “reset” in 2009? Who publicly virtue-signaled pushing the red “reset” button in Geneva with the current Russian Minister Sergey Lavrov?

Which ex-European leader got a million euros a year working for Russian energy companies?

Of the last four presidents, under whose watch did Putin not invade another country?

Which American president, in hot-mic style, offered to (and did) dismantle US-Eastern Europe missile defense plans in exchange for temporary Putin quietude (“space”) to aid his 2012 reelection?

Fable Two: A Trade War?

Donald Trump is not wildly slapping tariffs on Europeans.

He is simply saying that 1945 is now 80 years past and that the asymmetrical tariffs that Europe imposes on U.S. imports should be corrected. The massive trade surpluses Europe accumulates each year should give way to fairer, more balanced trade.

If Europe does not want tariffs, then simply calibrate its own tariffs on what America places on European imported goods, and work down jointly to zero tariffs on both sides.

Fable Three: America Is Bullying Europe?

The U.S. does not actively interfere in European elections and politics.

In 2024, Europeans, especially the British Laborites, bragged about sending over campaign “volunteers” to work against Trump and, earlier, his conservative predecessors.

British subject Christopher Steele sought to sabotage an entire American 2016 election with a falsified “dossier.”

The Ukrainian ambassador in 2016 wrote an op-ed all but endorsing Hillary Clinton and trashing her opponent.

In September 2024, Mr. Zelenskyy was flown in on a Biden-provided US military jet to Scranton, Pennsylvania—at a pivotal time in the most pivotal swing state—to surround himself with Democrat politicos.

His media-frenzied presence signaled a partisan campaign theme that a Harris win and the continuance of massive Democrat aid to Ukraine would ensure manufacturing jobs, such as the artillery shell factory he selected to visit.

As to NATO, Trump’s pressure from 2017 to 2021 finally pushed more NATO nations to rearm. But even eleven years after promising to invest a mere 2 percent of GDP in defense, nine of the 32 members still have not complied.

Fable Four: Negotiating With Putin Is Selling Out?

In the long history of Western diplomacy with mass-murdering tyrants, Putin doesn’t even rank among the worst. Just ask his former reset partners Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton.

FDR fueled mass-murdering “Uncle Joe” Stalin’s Red Army as a way to defeat Nazi Germany.

Richard Nixon flattered and cajoled the greatest mass murderer in history, Mao Zedong, to triangulate China against the Soviet Union.

Ronald Reagan offered to share missile defense expertise with Soviet Russia.

Europeans have hosted almost every Palestinian murderous terrorist leader, as a way either of deflecting terrorism from their own shores or emphasizing their general loathing of Israel.

Fable Five: Europe Is Going To Save Ukraine?

Europe rushed to congratulate and celebrate with Zelensky after his preplanned White House blow-up. They are loudly announcing that a supposedly isolationist and appeasing U.S.—which has sent more aid to Ukraine than all nearby European nations combined—will now be supplanted by a “new” muscular and rearmed Europe.

We sincerely hope so.

But on every recent international moral question—ganging up on a lone Israel to appease terrorist forces in the Middle East, standing up to China’s mercantilism, neo-imperialism, and domestic oppression of minorities, or Russia’s prior 2008 and 2014 invasions—European outrage has been muted, real consequences nonexistent.

We are now witnessing European heads of state sending the same old, same old virtue signaling support for the brave Zelenskyy, who supposedly spoke truth to power to the mean U.S. Orange Man.

But where does such performance art lead after the cult hero Zelenskyy had gnawed the hand that gorged him?

To multitudes of European tanks, skies full of European jets, and division after division of crack European infantry now heading east to “back up” Ukraine—led on horseback by its new Joan of Arc, Ursula von der Leyen?

Aside from all the present posturing and mock-heroics, the only way to save Ukraine is for the U.S. president, Donald Trump, to reflect joint Ukrainian, American, and European interests in stopping the war, forcing Putin as far back eastward as possible where he started in 2022, and creating a credible deterrent along with a DMZ/industrial corridor tripwire to stop another 2008, 2014, and 2022 invasion.

Anything else is empty carnival barking.