Authored by Dorothy Li via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

If President Donald Trump can negotiate a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, communist China could become the next target of the United States, analysts say.

During a phone call on Feb. 24, Chinese leader Xi Jinping reaffirmed the “no limit” partnership he declared three years ago with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

In a show of unity, Xi told Putin that their nations are “good neighbors” and “true friends who have been through thick and thin together,” according to Beijing’s readout.

Analysts said the warm sentiments expressed as the war in Ukraine marks its third year reflect the Chinese regime’s serious concerns.

“Xi Jinping’s greatest fear is that Putin might lean towards Trump” or even facilitate U.S. efforts to contain his regime, Cai Shenkun, an independent Chinese current affairs commentator, told The Epoch Times.

According to Cai, the alliance between the two autocracies is not as solid as it appears. He said that the war in Ukraine has acted as a catalyst, forging a closer bond between Beijing and Moscow and their economies. Once a cease-fire is reached, however, some longstanding friction points in their partnership, such as territorial disputes along their shared border, may resurface.

Additionally, Beijing’s support of Moscow’s war effort has strained its ties with Washington and Brussels, he said.

U.S. officials have repeatedly criticized China for helping Russia to rebuild its defense-industrial complex through the export of goods that can be used for both civilian and military purposes, thus providing Moscow an economic lifeline amid Western sanctions.

Meanwhile, European leaders, including the NATO secretary-general, are reconsidering their reliance on authoritarian regimes, especially in light of the largest armed conflict in Europe since World War II.

“In the past, we made the mistake of becoming dependent on Russian oil and gas. We must not repeat that mistake with China: Depending on its money, its raw materials, and its technologies,” NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said at an event in April 2024. “Dependencies make us vulnerable.”

Cai said that as global distrust toward communist China rises, the regime could find itself sidelined once the conflict in Ukraine ends and Putin no longer needs Xi’s support.

“Neither Ukraine nor Russia will be grateful to China [for the war]. Europe certainly won’t either,” Cai said. “Xi was left with little choice but to place his bets on Putin.”

A Shift in US Focus Toward China

Chen Shih-min, an expert on Western Europe security and the Chinese military at the National Taiwan University in Taipei, echoed those viewpoints. Beijing and Moscow are bonded by common interests, he said, which means they’ll diverge once these interests conflict.

Chen said that once the Ukraine war is settled, the Trump administration’s intention may be to shift its focus to driving Beijing and Moscow apart and confronting the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).

“Trump will come down hard on the CCP,” Chen told The Epoch Times.

U.S. defense leaders have indicated a strategic pivot toward countering threats from communist China.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has described communist China as a peer competitor with the “capability and intent to threaten our homeland and core national interests in the Indo-Pacific.”

“The U.S. is prioritizing deterring war with China in the Pacific, recognizing the reality of scarcity, and making the resourcing tradeoffs to ensure deterrence does not fail,” Hegseth said in his opening remarks at the Ukraine Defense Contact Group in Brussels on Feb. 12.

This shift in focus extends beyond the U.S. military.

“To bring manufacturing back to the United States and to address the trade deficit, Trump has to target the root of these problems: the CCP,” Chen said.

Challenges Facing Beijing at Home

As external pressures mount, can the CCP withstand the scrutiny? Cheng Cheng-ping, a professor at Taiwan’s National Yunlin University of Science and Technology, said he hasn’t seen any sign indicating the immediate end of the CCP’s rule, although there are indicators of “regime decay and decline,” such as political infighting and a faltering economy.

The world’s second-largest economy is grappling with sluggish domestic demand, an aging population, and a protracted crisis in the real estate sector.

The unemployment rate for people aged 16 to 24 has soared to levels that haven’t been seen in decades. Chinese authorities temporarily paused reporting the figures in June 2023 after official data showed one in five young Chinese were not employed. Many college graduates have turned to low-paying jobs, as the economy falters and foreign companies withdraw, leading to rising public discontent.

Chen said that although public discontent or a slowing economy will not fundamentally threaten the party’s rule—given its mass surveillance and tight social control—it could create a scenario where Xi considers aggressive military action, such as an invasion of Taiwan, to deflect criticism from himself.

“Public discontent is very strong. From another point of view, there must be a way to vent this discontent, and a war would be enough to divert the public’s attention from Xi Jinping,” Cheng told The Epoch Times.

The CCP has never ruled Taiwan but views the self-ruled democracy as its own territory and would not rule out using force to seize control. The People’s Liberation Army frequently sends its aircraft and warships to conduct large-scale drills near Taiwan to wear down the island’s defenses.

The most recent live-fire exercises occurred roughly 40 nautical miles off the coast of Kaohsiung City in southern Taiwan. On Feb. 26, Taiwan’s defense ministry reported that 45 Chinese military aircraft and 16 Chinese warships were detected near the island.

Cheng, who visited Kyiv, Odesa, and two other Ukrainian cities in 2023 to study how Taiwan can learn from the war in Europe, said he disagrees with the idea that Xi might act cautiously during the second Trump term.

According to his analysis, the likelihood of an invasion increases as Beijing advances its defense sector, which has outpaced that of the United States in key areas such as shipbuilding.

A leaked U.S. Office of Naval Intelligence report showed China’s shipbuilding capability is more than 200 times greater than that of the United States.

However, a rush into a military attack against Taiwan, according to Cheng, may lead to “the endgame” of Communist rule in China.

The Endgame of Communist Rule in China?

Activist Qin Jin said that despite the absence of any “clear sign” pointing to an immediate fall of the CCP, he won’t be surprised if it all unravels overnight, much like the collapse of the Soviet Union, which few in the West foresaw until it actually happened in 1991.

Qin highlighted the secrecy that cloaks authoritarian regimes, likening the CCP’s internal workings to the Iron Curtain of the Soviet era, dubbing it the “Bamboo Curtain” in China.

“What lies behind the Bamboo Curtain is almost impossible to know until the authorities choose to reveal it,” Qin, the chairman of the pro-democracy Federation for a Democratic China in Australia, told The Epoch Times.

As an example of the regime’s opacity, Qin cited Beijing’s tight control of information related to COVID-19, which first emerged in the central Chinese city of Wuhan five years ago.

To this day, Beijing has resisted any international investigation into the origin of the pandemic, leaving the world in the dark about how the pandemic erupted in China.

It only becomes more secretive when it comes to the country’s power center.

Qin pointed to the mystery surrounding the death of former No. 2 official Li Keqiang in October 2023, seven months after he stepped down as premier.

Li’s death at the age of 68 raised eyebrows among China watchers, who highlighted the Party elites’ record of longevity. Li’s two immediate predecessors, Wen Jiabao, 83, and Zhu Rongji, 96, are still living.

Some commentators speculated that Li’s passing coincides with political infighting within the Party’s top brass. A string of senior officials and military commanders, including the former foreign minister Qin Gang and defense minister Li Shangfu, had been abruptly removed from office after unexplained disappearances.

“The details of Li Keqiang’s death will surely be disclosed in the future,” Qin said. “When? After the collapse of the communist regime.”

Discontent among law enforcement personnel is surging within the major cities. Recently, Qin spoke with a police chief from a provincial capital who had fled overseas—an indication of unrest even among the high ranks of the public security bureaus, which are usually under tight CCP control.

“It’s akin to a big earthquake,” he said. “Humans may not feel it coming, but animals sense [the danger] beforehand.”

He cautioned that the regime’s collapse could happen unexpectedly, catching the world off-guard.

“It’s entirely possible,” he said. “And I look forward to that day.”

Luo Ya contributed to this report.

Since Russia’s full-scale invasion, America’s views on Ukraine have shifted significantly.

Just months after the war broke out, 6% of Republicans polled by the Wall Street Journal said America was doing too much for Ukraine. By December of 2023, this share jumped to 56%. In line with Trump’s “America First” policies, many Republicans today want to cut military aid and instead focus on domestic issues.

This graphic, via Visual Capitalist’s Dorothy Neufeld, shows America’s views on aid to Ukraine, based on data from YouGov.

Figures are based on a survey of 1,603 U.S. adults conducted between Feb 16-18, 2025.

Republicans Most in Favor of Decreasing Aid

As the table below shows, Americans hold mixed views on the Ukraine war, clearly influenced by their political party.

Overall, 30% of Americans think aid to Ukraine should be decreased, just surpassing those that think it should remain the same.

Notably, 45% of Republicans think that America should reduce military aid to Ukraine. An even greater share of Republicans (60%) think that U.S. foreign aid should be cut or eliminated altogether.

By contrast, Democrats are the most in favor of increasing military aid, at 35% in this party. Looking beyond views on aid, 62% of Americans sympathize with Ukraine compared to 4% with Russia in the ongoing conflict. Meanwhile, 24% do not sympathize with either.

For a global perspective on this topic, check out this graphic on country-level views on the likelihood of the Russia-Ukraine war ending in 2025.

Authored by George Citroner via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Older adults with vitamin B12 levels considered normal may still face cognitive decline and brain damage, according to a new study.

Participants with lower—yet technically acceptable—B12 levels showed measurable brain white matter damage and slower cognitive processing, prompting researchers to call for a reevaluation of what constitutes “healthy” B12 levels in aging populations.

These lower levels could “impact cognition to a greater extent than what we previously thought, and may affect a much larger proportion of the population than we realize,” Alexandra Beaudry-Richard, co-first author, said in a press release.

Rethinking B12 Levels

Recent research published in Annals of Neurology found that older, healthy people with concentrations of B12 in their blood on the lower side of normal showed signs of neurological and cognitive deficiency. The study found that lower B12 was linked to damage in the brain’s white matter, which helps brain regions communicate.

Researchers enrolled 231 healthy participants without dementia or mild cognitive impairment, with an average age of 71. Their average blood B12 level was 414.8 pmol/L, which exceeds the U.S. minimum threshold of 148 pmol/L, indicating that, on average, they do not exhibit B12 deficiency. Normal values for B12 are often cited as being roughly between 118 to 701 pmol/L.

Assessments of cognitive performance indicated that lower active B12 levels were associated with slower processing speeds, suggesting a potential for subtle cognitive decline. This effect was more pronounced in older participants.

The results raise questions about current B12 requirements and suggest the recommendations need updating, according to Dr. Ari J. Green, chief of the division of neuroimmunology and glial biology in the Department of Neurology at the University of California at San Francisco, and senior author of the study.

Older people are more prone to lower vitamin B12 levels because their stomach acid production, which is crucial for properly absorbing B12 from food, decreases as they age. This malabsorption, combined with potential dietary inadequacies, can lead to deficiency.

Low B12 levels are linked to brain lesions because B12 is vital for the health of nerve cells in the brain, so a deficiency can cause damage to the white matter, leading to lesions that can impact cognitive function.

“Previous studies that defined healthy amounts of B12 may have missed subtle functional manifestations of high or low levels that can affect people without causing overt symptoms,” Green stated.

“Revisiting the definition of B12 deficiency to incorporate functional biomarkers could lead to earlier intervention and prevention of cognitive decline,” he added.

Read the rest here…

And grab some potent B-Vitamins here…

Authored by Bruce Abramson via RealClearMarkets,

What is DOGE really doing—and why is it so controversial?  The answer lies in an esoteric if straightforward concept that began in the world of  budgeting:  Zero-basing.

As a general rule, most organizations, businesses, agencies, and even households building budgets start by asking themselves a simple question: What did we spend last year?  To answer, they compile a list of expense categories and the amounts spent in each one.  Next, they look ahead to the coming year to see which categories will require a bump up and where they can cut.  Finally, they look at projected revenues to see whether they can expect to cover planned spending.

In such a process, last year’s budget serves as the “baseline” for this year’s budget.

That’s a perfectly reasonable approach if the goal is performance more-or-less on par with last year’s.  An entity displeased with past performance and contemplating major reforms must take a radically different approach.

“Zero-Based Budgeting” rejects using last year’s budget as a baseline.  Instead, it sets the baseline for each category at zero.  It then considers each contemplated expenditure, one at a time, and asks whether current circumstances can justify it or require it.  If so, it gets added to the budget.  If not, it’s rejected.

Though zero-basing may have begun in the world of budgeting, it’s a powerful concept that can be applied quite broadly.  I’ve long advocated its deployment in regulatory reform, and I’ve used it in my day job to revamp college admissions processes. 

Stripped to its essentials, zero-based reforms reject inertia and incumbency as reasons for doing anything.  They begin assuming nothing, review everything from first principles, and retain only that which is justifiable given current circumstances.

President Trump assumed office believing that the performance of the Executive Branch—not just last year, but for decades—has been entirely unacceptable.  A majority of Americans agree with that assessment.  Under such circumstances, preserving existing structures as a baseline would have been deeply foolish—not to mention counterproductive and destructive.

He thus called upon Elon Musk and his team at DOGE to zero base the entire government.  That’s exactly what DOGE has been doing. 

Consider, for example, a pair of messages that started with an announcement on X:  “Consistent with President @realDonaldTrump’s instructions, all federal employees will shortly receive an email requesting to understand what they got done last week. Failure to respond will be taken as a resignation.”  The promised email requested approximately five bullet points describing the employee’s accomplishments.

This request raised a furor.  Why?  Because it inverted the “normal” order. 

Under normal circumstances, new management inherits a workforce, then makes decisions about who to retain and who to cut.  Even if management suspects that payrolls have been padded with phantom employees and kickbacks, they typically leave things in place until they can identify the improprieties.  If you’re on payroll, you’re assumed to be earning your keep until someone proves otherwise.

In other words, the status quo defines the baseline. 

Musk’s message went wisely in the opposite direction.  It reset the federal workforce to zero and shifted the burden of proving value.  The “proof” required was negligible—but noticeably greater than the zero to which federal employees had grown accustomed. 

Anyone receiving the e-mail message—in effect, anyone claiming to be a federal employee—was given a minimal but real challenge: Reply with an e-mail stating “I exist, I read e-mail from my employer, and at least in my own opinion, I confer value in exchange for my paycheck.”

Hardly a high standard, but enough to infuriate those who believe that the status quo must be maintained at all costs independent of the acceptability of past performance.

Even a quick glimpse at DOGE’s other moves highlights their consistency, appropriateness, and brilliance—with parallels emerging throughout the Trump Administration:

First, announce the termination or planned demise of an agency—say, USAID or the Department of Education.  That resets its baseline to zero and shifts the burden to those claiming that said agency confers value in excess of cost upon the American people.

Next, let those who wish to preserve the program make their case: Justify the continuation of this expense given current circumstances.  Past importance is irrelevant.  Perhaps this program, when first introduced, solved a pressing problem.  So what?  Why do we need it in 2025?

In most cases, the burden of proving value should be higher than the one Musk set for employee maintenance—but still something that reasonable people making a reasonable case can meet.  Activities capable of clearing that hurdle will be preserved; even if the agency housing them is eliminated, they can be relocated to one of the many agencies that will prove their worth.

The beauty of this approach is that it achieves two great results simultaneously:

One, it maximizes the chances of eliminating deadweight bloat and outright fraud by cutting as a default, then adding back only what can be justified.

Two, it aligns incentives appropriately by making the people best positioned to justify each governmental activity responsible for providing the justifications.

That’s what it means to zero-base a federal government returning far too little on the taxpayer dollar. 

That’s precisely what DOGE is doing. 

It’s far beyond time.

Bruce Abramson is a senior administrator at New College of Florida and a Fellow of the Coalition for America. His books include The New Civil War (RealClearPublishing, 2021) and most recently, American Spirit or Great Awokening? (Academica Press, 2024).

So much for moving to Florida to pay less due to taxes…

That’s because one Florida town has shocked residents by tripling HOA fees to over $3,300, according to The Daily Mail.

Winter Park Woods, near Orlando, raised its monthly fees dramatically, the Daily Mail reported, citing WESH. Longtime resident Lorraine Roy now pays $3,371.79 for her three-bedroom condo.

“This is way too high,” she said. “And I love this location, which is why I stayed here all this time, through the ups and downs.”

Roy is currently resisting offers to sell her condo but acknowledges it may be necessary in the future. The Winter Park Woods Condominiums Association raised fees due to millions owed to Orange County for code violations, WESH reported.

The Daily Mail report says that the hike also covers increased insurance costs and new legislative requirements following the 2021 Surfside condo collapse, which mandates structural inspections for condos over 30 years old and additional repair funds.

Insurance costs have risen due to more frequent natural disasters like hurricanes and flooding, pushing HOA fees higher for repairs and mitigation. “We underfunded the reserves, that has been happening,” Roy admitted.

Resident Shane Costa’s fee rose from $634 to over $2,100, prompting him to attempt to sell. However, an investor offered him only $70,000, far below the value. “The simple truth is developers are going to come in and redevelop these properties,” said Jeff Brandes, Founder & President of the Florida Policy Project.

Costa added, “I’m in a little bit better circumstance than most people right now, but there’s people losing their homes.” Steve Fieldman, another resident, agreed: “There are people who live here no more, and they just couldn’t withstand the pressure and had to sell out for a much lower price than they feel was fair.”

Joel Berner, a senior economist at Realtor.com, noted, “HOAs are getting tough all across the country lately, but especially in Florida.”

Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times,

U.S. Air Force recruitment has surged to its highest level in 15 years, top military officials say.

Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. David Allvin announced on March 3 that recruiting numbers over the past three months—December through February—were the strongest in a decade and a half.

Calling the numbers “amazing,” Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth suggested that the increase reflects a broader resurgence of interest in military service, fueled by a renewed emphasis on combat readiness and discipline.

“Americans are excited to serve their Country again! The next generation of the American warfighter will be joining the greatest fighting force the world has ever known!” Hegseth wrote in a post on X.

Allvin did not disclose exact figures but stated that all recruiting metrics “look great,” even as the Air Force increased its recruitment goal by 20 percent for fiscal year 2025.

An Air Force public affairs staffer contacted by phone declined to provide more details.

Allvin confirmed that approximately 13,000 recruits are currently in the Delayed Entry Program (DEP)—a system allowing enlistees to postpone their ship date to boot camp while completing school, handling personal matters, or preparing for military training.

The surge in enlistments follows a disappointing fiscal year 2023, when the Air Force missed its recruiting goal for the first time since 1999. In response, the service adjusted certain enlistment standards, including relaxed policies on tattoos and body fat composition.

By the end of fiscal year 2024, the Air Force recruited 27,139 active-duty enlisted personnel and saw a major increase in DEP enrollment—from 8,000 in 2023 to 11,000 in 2024. For 2025, the Air Force is aiming to bring in 33,100 active-duty personnel.

The Air Force’s recruitment surge comes on the heels of similar progress in the U.S. Army, which also reported its strongest enlistment numbers in 15 years.

President Donald Trump has suggested that renewed enthusiasm for military service reflects a broader national shift.

“We’ve done lots of interviews and asked why this is happening now, and they just said there’s a spirit about our country that they haven’t seen in many, many years. And I happen to agree with that,” Trump told a crowd at the White House on Feb. 5.

He also credited his administration’s efforts to eliminate “woke lunacy” from the military, pointing to a Jan. 27 executive order that revoked gender identity policies in favor of prioritizing “readiness and effectiveness.”

Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. David Allvin gives a keynote address at the Air and Space Forces Association Warfare Symposium in Aurora, Colo., on March 3, 2025. Courtesy of U.S. Air Force/photo by Staff Sgt. Adam R. Shanks

Speaking at the Air & Space Forces Association (AFA) Warfare Symposium in Aurora, Colorado, on March 3, Allvin made the case for increased investment in the Air Force, aligning with the Trump administration’s objectives of rebuilding the U.S. military and restoring deterrence.

“America needs more Air Force,” Allvin said. But “more Air Force doesn’t just mean more of the same.”

Allvin highlighted two major challenges: pilots not getting enough flight time and the service being overburdened by excess infrastructure. Since the end of the Cold War, the Air Force has cut 60 percent of its squadrons and 40 percent of its personnel—yet only reduced 15 percent of its bases.

To address this, Allvin proposed closing unnecessary bases and redirecting those resources into modernizing aircraft and weapons. This includes investing in advanced autonomous drones designed to fly alongside piloted jets.

“I think we need more options for the President. And that’s what more Air Force provides,” Allvin said. “It means everything from rapid response all the way to decisive victory.”

He said that national security depends on expanding and reshaping the Air Force to counter emerging threats.

“We have to sustain and maintain the ability to go anytime, anywhere, into the densest threat environment and put ‘warheads on foreheads’ wherever the President requires,” he concluded.

Corporate media was out in full force on Wednesday, eagerly highlighting new data showing that Tesla sales in Europe plunged in February. These outlets claim that Elon Musk has alienated some EV buyers who oppose his DOGE initiative, which supports the president’s efforts to drain the DC swamp of corrupt officials and NGOs. 

Successive reports of slowing EV sales led to an abrupt top in Tesla shares in mid-December, around the $479 handle, and have since plunged 43% over the last few months. This bear market appears to be approaching the round-trip point of the post-election rally.

On Tuesday, Goldman Sachs analysts Mark Delaney, Will Bryant, and others provided clients with new commentary on Tesla, in which they revised their 1Q25 delivery estimate down due to softening in key markets, including China, Europe, and the US: 

Deliveries tracking softer in 1Q, we believe in part on the Model Y transition and partly due to weaker demand Tesla delivery data for January and February in key regions has been soft, which we believe is partly due to the Model Y changeover and partly due to somewhat weaker underlying demand than we had expected (as we think growth has also been slower than we had previously estimated for Model 3 and Cybertruck per delivery data, consumer surveys, incentives that Tesla has been utilizing, and the competitive landscape). We expect shipments to be stronger in the month of March driven by the refreshed Model Y ramp. Overall, we now expect deliveries of 375K in 1Q25, down from our prior 399K view and well below Visible Alpha consensus at 426K.

Delaney and Bryant provided more color on the slowdown on a regional basis: 

1. USA – Through February, deliveries are tracking flattish yoy per Wards and Motor Intelligence (with Wards showing a slight decline and Motor Intelligence reporting slight growth) but down meaningfully qoq as 1Q24 was impacted by the Model 3 transition;

2. Europe – European registration data for January shows a >40% yoy decline, and registration data from daily reporting countries (i.e. UK, Spain, Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden, Norway) indicates a mid to high 20% decline through February (although we note that this daily reporting data does not include Germany, which has been a larger source of weakness for the more complete January data);

3. China – CPCA data in January and registration data through February indicates a mid single digit decline in China retail sales yoy QTD, but assuming a stronger March as production of the new Model Y ramps, we think China could end up being more flattish yoy for 1Q25 overall.

Sales are slowing.

Since the analysts do not cover Germany and France in the note, Tesla sales in those countries plunged as well:

• Tesla registrations in Germany plummeted 76% last month, according to the German Federal Motor Transport Authority. This decline comes as Elon Musk publicly voiced his support for the AfD party.

• Tesla registrations in France plunged 44% last month.

• These two countries are the largest EV markets in the EU. 

The analysts emphasized: “While the Model Y transition is a key driver of the weakness, we also believe that underlying demand is somewhat weaker than we had previously expected.” 

HundredX data (which aggregates survey responses from US consumers) shows Tesla’s net purchase intent and net positive perception of the brand have been sliding since the summer of 2023. 

Google Search trends for Tesla Model 3 and Model Y worldwide remain stable. 

The analysts believe Tesla’s market share in China has eroded because of the “strong competitive environment” with domestic brands like Xiaomi and BYD. 

In addition to lowering their Q1 2025 delivery estimate, the analysts have also reduced their full-year 2025 forecast.

Here’s more:

We lower our 2025 deliveries estimate to 1.91 mn (up 7% yoy) from 1.96 (up 10% yoy), and our 2026/27 estimates to 2.25 mn/2.50 mn from 2.30 mn/2.60 mn reflecting lower assumptions for Tesla’s existing models and partly offset by a more positive view of shipments from Tesla’s upcoming new model launches (which could benefit from new form factors and lower prices). Our estimates are below VisibleAlpha consensus at 1.98 mn/2.37 mn/2.68 mn respectively. Separately, we lower our energy gross margin assumptions, reflecting higher tariffs on imports from China that are already in effect (given the battery sourcing for Megapacks) and the competitive landscape. However, our estimates do not include tariffs on imports from Mexico or Canada, which are evolving and could still be adjusted per media reports.

On FSD, the analyst said Tesla is facing a tough competitive environment in China:

As for shares, the analysts remain “Neutral” rated on the stock, lowering their 12-month price target to $320 from $345.

The analysts do note: “We expect Tesla’s earnings growth to improve over the longer-term due in part to increased software revenue with FSD, although we have a more balanced view of Tesla’s monetization potential than we believe the company is targeting.” 

Via The Cradle

The Israeli army’s new Chief of Staff, Eyal Zamir, was officially sworn into the position on 5 March, making a speech and vowing that the “mission” against Hamas has “not yet been completed.”

The ceremony comes over one month after the resignation of his predecessor, Herzi Halevi, was announced. “The IDF has achieved impressive achievements on the battlefield. We won battles in Gaza and Lebanon; we struck far away in Yemen and Iran. Hamas received a heavy blow, but it has not yet been defeated. The mission has not yet been completed,” Zamir said in his speech. 

“Our moral duty is clear: Bring everyone back home, in any way possible and as quickly as possible,” he added, addressing the families of the Israeli captives held by the Palestinian resistance in Gaza.

Halevi made a speech during the ceremony, calling for the establishment of a commission to probe the events of October 7, 2023. 

“The establishment of a state commission of inquiry is necessary and vital. Not to find someone to blame, but first and foremost to reach the source of the problems and allow for repair,” he said. “On 7 October, the IDF failed. It was a deep failure. But such a failure on this scale cannot only be investigated in the IDF and the Shin Bet.”

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has consistently blocked such a commission from being formed. 

Herzi Halevi announced his resignation on January 21 over his failure to prevent Hamas’s Operation Al-Aqsa Flood. Several other military and intelligence officials also have intentions of resigning over 7 October, including the chief of Israel’s Shin Bet security service, Ronen Bar. 

Several reports have emerged since the war in Gaza began, revealing that Israeli authorities ignored multiple warnings about Operation Al-Aqsa Flood.

Halevi’s successor served as Netanyahu’s military secretary from 2012 to 2015. In his tenure as the head of the Israeli southern command, Zamir commanded troops in the 2018-2019 Great March of Return protests in Gaza, when over 150 Palestinians and 10,000 others were killed and wounded by the army. 

His inauguration comes as Israeli forces continue to violate two separate ceasefire deals – maintaining an occupation in south Lebanon and launching frequent attacks on the country, while obstructing the start of phase two in the Gaza agreement and threatening a return to war against the strip.

After President Trump and Vice President JD Vance accused Ukraine’s Zelensky of being ‘ungrateful’ amid last Friday’s explosive row in front of media cameras in the Oval Office, the White House on Monday announced the suspension of military aid to Ukraine. 

But it was initially unclear precisely when the pause in arms deliveries would take effect, or whether Trump was merely previewing a future suspension. New information revealed in fresh reports sheds more light on the matter, and clearly Trump means business. It was immediate upon the announcement.

“US weapons deliveries to Ukraine came to an abrupt halt on Monday evening after President Donald Trump ordered a pause on all aid to the war-torn country, the Pentagon confirmed on Tuesday,” USA Today reports, based on an admin official.

Inbound shipments on military and transport plans literally turned around midflight, per the report:

After the order was given, all U.S. weapons shipments to Ukraine came to a stop, as of 6 p.m. on Monday evening, according to a defense official. Planes carrying supplies en route to Ukraine would have had to turn around, the official said.

“It was unclear, as of Tuesday, whether Ukraine’s direct contracts with U.S. weapons manufacturers, procured through the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, would also be impacted,” USA Today continues. “As of mid-December, $1.7 billion out of the $21.2 billion fund had not been used.”

There was anticipation that Trump might have unveiled a signed minerals deal with Ukraine during Tuesday night’s lengthy 90-minute address to Congress, but that didn’t happen. Trump only referenced a vague letter from Zelensky saying Ukraine was merely interested in a minerals deal as well as achieving peace.

Meanwhile, some Democrats on Capitol Hill are panicking over how rapid the Washington relationship with Kiev is breaking down.

Senator Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH), ranking member of the Foreign Relations Committee, said in a statement: “This act of retribution against our ally, who is on the frontlines defending freedom and democracy, is not only shameful—it is dangerous.”

“I urge the administration to reverse course and remember that America’s values lie with the free world, not autocrats and murderous dictators,” she said. She ignored the reality of the escalatory build-up to WW3 of the last three years under Biden policy.

And anti-Russia hawk Senator Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) lashed out at Trump, writing the following on X:

Trump is inviting a military catastrophe&humanitarian nightmare—suspending aid for air defense against Russia’s bloody slaughter of civilians as well as arms necessary for battle worn soldiers to hold the line against brutal attacks. His withholding this aid is illegal&immoral. https://t.co/0itBFqTkWS

— Richard Blumenthal (@SenBlumenthal) March 4, 2025

The White House followed the weapons halt by lately ordering an intelligence-sharing pause as well, which has reportedly involved leaning on the UK to halt the sharing of intel information with Kiev, though it doesn’t necessarily impact other European allies.

Was that it for the Atlanta Fed recession (which as we described, managed to fool everyone into believing the US economy is crashing because of… surging gold imports)?

Two months after the December Beige Book (published in January) reported that in the last month of Biden’s presidency, “economic activity increased slightly to moderately across the twelve Federal Reserve Districts in late November and December”, moments ago – and with everyone expecting fire and brimstone and perhaps a confirmation that the US is now neck deep in a recession if not depression (at least based on how the 10Y and USD are trading) – the latest Fed Beige Book found that in February, or one month into Trump’s 3rd 2nd presidency, economic activity actually “rose slightly since mid-January.”

Reading the latest Fed report we find that six districts reported no change, four reported modest or moderate growth, and two noted slight contractions. 

Here are the specific details: 

• Consumer spending was lower on balance, with reports of solid demand for essential goods mixed with increased price sensitivity for discretionary items, particularly among lower-income shoppers. 
• Unusual weather conditions in some regions over recent weeks weakened demand for leisure and hospitality services. 
• Vehicle sales were modestly lower on balance. 
• Manufacturing activity exhibited slight to modest increases across a majority of Districts. 
• Contacts in manufacturing, ranging from petrochemical products to office equipment, expressed concerns over the potential impact of looming trade policy changes. 
• Banking activity was slightly higher on balance among Districts that reported on it. 
• Residential real estate markets were mixed, and reports pointed to ongoing inventory constraints. 
• Construction activity declined modestly for both residential and nonresidential units. 
• Some contacts in the sector also expressed nervousness around the impact of potential tariffs on the price of lumber and other materials. 
• Agricultural conditions deteriorated some among reporting Districts.

Yet despite this mixed picture, overall expectations for economic activity over the coming months were slightly optimistic.

Taking a closer at the labor market, the Beige Book found that employment nudged slightly higher on balance, with four Districts reporting a slight increase, seven reporting no change, and one reporting a slight decline. 

• Multiple Districts cited job growth in health care and finance, while employment declines were reported in manufacturing and information technology. 
• Labor availability improved for many sectors and Districts, though there were occasional reports of a tight labor market in targeted sectors or occupations. 
• Contacts in multiple Districts said rising uncertainty over immigration and other matters was influencing current and future labor demand. 
• Wages grew at a modest-to-moderate pace, which was slightly slower than the previous report, with several Districts noting that wage pressures were easing.

Turning to inflation, not surprisingly (to anyone who shops) prices increased moderately in most Districts, but several Districts reported an uptick in the pace of increase relative to the previous reporting period. 

• Input price pressures were generally greater than sales price pressures, particularly in manufacturing and construction. 
• Many Districts noted that higher prices for eggs and other food ingredients were impacting food processors and restaurants. 
• Reports of substantial increases in insurance and freight transportation costs were also widespread. Firms in multiple Districts noted difficulty passing input costs on to customers. 
• However, contacts in most Districts expected potential tariffs on inputs would lead them to raise prices, with isolated reports of firms raising prices preemptively.

Here is a snapshot of highlights by Fed District:

• Boston: Economic activity increased slowly, boosted by a surge in home sales. Prices increased modestly on average, but contacts perceived that upward pressure on prices could emerge in response to tariffs. Employment declined slightly, and wages increased modestly. Expectations were mostly optimistic but marked by growing uncertainty.
• New York: Regional economic activity was little changed in early 2025. Employment grew slightly and wage growth was moderate, with labor supply and labor demand coming back into balance. Selling price increases picked up to a moderate pace after some slowing last period. Many businesses noted heightened economic uncertainty and expressed concern about tariffs.
• Philadelphia: Business activity declined slightly during the current Beige Book period after a slight increase last period. Employment continued to grow slightly; wages and prices grew modestly. Contacts noted that changes in fiscal and trade policies pose a risk of higher inflation. Generally, sentiment fell, but firms remain optimistic about future growth amid economic uncertainty.
• Cleveland: District business activity was flat in recent weeks, although contacts expected activity to increase in the months ahead. Consumer spending was down, and some contacts noted declining consumer confidence. Employment levels remained flat. Contact reports suggest that nonlabor input costs edged up, while reported price increases continued to be modest.
• Richmond: The regional economy grew modestly in recent weeks. Consumer spending increased modestly, down from the moderate rate previously reported. Nonfinancial services firms also reported modest growth while manufacturing activity was unchanged. Price growth remained moderate, but firms across sectors expressed concerns about overall uncertainty in the economy and about tariffs potentially leading to future price increases.
• Atlanta: The economy of the Sixth District expanded at a modest pace. Employment was steady. Wages, input costs, and prices increased modestly. Retail sales fell slightly. Travel and tourism were steady. Home sales declined somewhat. Transportation activity grew modestly. Loan growth was moderate. Manufacturing expanded slightly. Energy demand increased modestly.
• Chicago: Economic activity was little changed. Employment was up slightly; consumer and business spending were flat; nonbusiness contacts saw little change in activity; and construction and real estate and manufacturing activity decreased slightly. Prices increased modestly; wages rose moderately; and financial conditions were unchanged. Farm income in 2025 was expected to be similar to 2024.
• St. Louis: Economic activity and employment have been flat. Prices continued to increase moderately but were above expectations. Contacts noted that they were holding off investment due to policy uncertainty and indicated that tariffs would result in higher prices. The outlook has declined from slightly optimistic in our previous report to neutral.
• Minneapolis: Economic activity was steady. Employment grew but labor demand and hiring softened. Wage and price increases were moderate. Consumer spending was flat with improvements in travel and tourism. Manufacturing experienced modest improvements. Construction of nonresidential units slowed but accelerated modestly for residential units. Commercial real estate was mostly unchanged, and home sales improved. Agricultural conditions were flat.
• Kansas City: Economic activity was unchanged on balance, but consumer spending decreased moderately. Prices rose at a moderate pace. While higher prices deterred spending, business contacts indicated they were more likely to scale back rather than take a hit on margins by softening pricing. Employment levels remained steady, though contacts noted a rise in labor force churn.
• Dallas: The Eleventh District economy continued to expand moderately. Nonfinancial services activity grew while retail sales were flat, and manufacturing activity was rather volatile. Lending picked up notably and commercial real estate activity improved, though housing demand was tepid. Employment held steady, and little change was seen in wage and price growth. Contacts noted sharply higher uncertainty around the outlook.
• San Francisco: Economic activity ticked down. Employment levels were stable. Price levels and wages grew slightly. Retail sales fell modestly and demand for services weakened a bit. Manufacturing activity improved somewhat, while conditions in agriculture and residential real estate softened. Commercial real estate and lending activity were steady.

Confirming that contraray to conventional wisdom the economic picture improved notably since January, the latest February Beige Book saw just 2 mentions of recessions, down sharply from 6 two months prior. But more notably, while mentions of “slow” extended their decline to 35 from 38, mentions of inflation rose to a two year high of 15, up from 11 last month…

… suggesting that the US economy – while hardly on fire as it was during the hyperinflationary period of Biden’s admin – continues to chug along and is hardly collapsing as so many Trump foes would like to see.

Source: Federal Reserve