Power and electrical equipment companies moved higher in early trading after The Information reported Tuesday evening that Meta Platforms is in discussions to build a new artificial intelligence data center campus that “would dwarf anything the company has done to date” and be the largest project of its kind, with costs potentially exceeding $200 billion. 

A person familiar with the plans said Meta has been speaking with developers about potentially opening the data center campus in states including Louisiana, Wyoming, or Texas, adding senior executives have already toured potential sites. 

On Meta’s latest earnings call, META CEO Mark Zuckerberg said the social media company plans to invest “hundreds of billions of dollars” in AI infrastructure “over the long term,” without elaborating. 

TikTok Owner ByteDance Plans $12 Billion AI Chip Investing Spree; Trump Unveils “Stargate” Project https://t.co/ngpiMlDhWA

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) January 22, 2025

Like Amazon, Microsoft, and Google, Meta has aggressively increased capital expenditures to expand AI data centers, raising its capex to between $60 billion and $65 billion, nearly 70% higher than last year. The company has not provided details on whether the new project will begin this year.

“Meta’s proposed new data center campus, which hasn’t previously been reported, would be several times larger than a new AI data center in Louisiana that CEO Mark Zuckerberg discussed last month, which he implied would be about four miles long,” The Information noted. 

The people said that Elon Musk’s xAI data center in Memphis, Tenn, considered one of the world’s largest AI supercomputers, prompted Zuckerberg and Meta executives to expedite data center expansion plans. 

Since the launch of MSFT-backed OpenAI’s ChatGPT in 2022, AI Capex in data center spending has erupted, but a report earlier this week from TD Cowen suggested MSFT began canceling data center orders. However, it “strongly refuted” the Cowen report. US tech firms are also wrestling with ‘DeepSeek’ fears, essentially more efficient AI models that require less data center processing, which brings us to this…

The whole “Capex to the Sky” narrative for AI data centers among Mag7 companies is in jeopardy. However, big tech firms like Meta continue to push back against this bearish narrative by raising their capex projections…

… keeping the bubble alive.

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Megyn Kelly unleashed a verbal battering on MSNBC crybaby Rachel Maddow, accusing the “sanctimonious” host of smearing her own network with baseless racism claims following the long-overdue firing of Joy Reid, ironically the most racist person on the network.

Maddow used her Monday night slot to bash the MSNBC’s decision to axe Reid, a move Kelly described as a mercy kill for a network already haemorrhaging credibility faster than a B-movie loses the plot.

Kell ripped into Maddow on her SiriusXM show Tuesday, calling her out on the hypocritical, self-righteous tirade.

“She oozes sanctimony and self-righteousness,” Kelly sneered, pointing to Maddow’s on-air rant where she painted MSNBC’s leadership as bigots for cutting Reid and other nonwhite hosts like Alex Wagner and Katie Phang.

“She took her bosses’ faces and rubbed them in shit last night,” Kelly added with disgust.

Maddow’s Monday monologue was a masterclass in performative outrage, as she whined “It is unnerving to see that on a network where we’ve got two—count them, two—nonwhite hosts in primetime, both of our nonwhite hosts in primetime are losing their shows.”

“That feels indefensible. And I do not defend it.” She even sobbed over the “dozens of producers and staffers” facing layoffs, conveniently leaving aside the fact that her own $25 million-a-year paycheck might have something to do with the budget cuts she’s so torn up about.

Maddow decided to play woke martyr, slamming the cuts as a diversity disaster while ignoring the real issue: nobody’s watching.

Mr Maddow rants about MSNBC being racist for sacking Joy Reid. They should even things up a bit and sack him too. pic.twitter.com/lkGb7DUkZB

— m o d e r n i t y (@ModernityNews) February 25, 2025

Kelly wasn’t having it, declaring that Maddow is “full of shit.”

“If you’re really so disgusted with the ‘racism’ over at MSNBC, why do you want to work there? Put your money where your mouth is—walk away with your $25 million salary,” Kelly further urged.

Kelly’s not wrong when she says Maddow’s the architect of MSNBC’s downfall. “You destroyed the credibility of the entire network,” she charged, pointing to Maddow’s years-long obsession with the Russia collusion hoax—a conspiracy she peddled with the zeal of a televangelist, only to never apologise when it collapsed.

“You’re the biggest conspiracy theorist on television,” Kelly proclaimed, noting that the receipts are there for anyone who has had to endure Maddow’s smug lectures over the past decade.

Kelly added that while Maddow “should be fired for insubordination and disparaging the network publicly,” MSNBC’s execs are too spineless to touch her.

“They won’t fire her because they’re a bunch of pussies,” Kelly further emphasised, predicting that the network doesn’t have the “testicular fortitude” to clap back at the rogue anchor.

As we earlier highlighted, Reid’s exit has sparked a separate feud, with fired CNN loser Don Lemon telling Kelly to “go fuck yourself” for celebrating the cancellation. MSNBC is a dumpster fire circus, and Kelly is playing ringmaster, gleefully exposing the clownery.

*  *  *

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Texas Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller released a shocking statement on Tuesday about a Texas rancher blown up by an improvised explosive device planted by cartel terrorists near the US-Mexico border. 

“A tragic and alarming incident occurred near Brownsville, Texas, where a US citizen and Texas rancher was killed by an improvised explosive device (IED). This shocking act of violence highlights the growing threat posed by cartel activity along our southern border,” Miller wrote in a statement. 

He continued:

I urge all Texas farmers, ranchers, and agricultural workers who travel to Mexico or operate near the border to exercise extreme caution. The Lower Rio Grande Valley (LRGV) is a crucial part of Texas agriculture, and the safety of our agricultural community is of utmost importance. We cannot overlook the rising violence that threatens not only lives but also the security of our farms, ranches, and rural communities.

I encourage everyone in the agricultural industry to stay vigilant, remain aware of their surroundings, and report any suspicious activity to law enforcement. Additionally, you can avoid dirt roads and remote areas, refrain from touching unfamiliar objects that could be explosive devices, limit travel to daylight hours, stay on main roads, and avoid cartel-controlled regions. Our agriculture family is the backbone of Texas, and we must do everything we can to protect it.”

Miller’s office spoke with NewsNation about the IED attack that occurred earlier this month. Officials stated that rancher Antonio Cespedes Saldierna, who operated on both sides of the border, was killed when his truck struck the explosive device on a dirt road.

NEW: Texas border rancher k*lled by a suspected cartel IED at the Southern Border, according to the Texas Department of Agriculture.

74-year-old Rancher Antonio Céspedes Saldierna was driving on his ranch when the explosive detonated.

According to the New York Post, Saldierna… pic.twitter.com/PZyY8isbgJ

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) February 25, 2025

Also killed was Horacio Lopez Pena. Ninfa Griselda Ortega, Lopez’s wife, was hospitalized with severe injuries. 

Texas Land Commissioner Dawn Buckingham issued a separate statement emphasizing that these violent acts should be condemned at the highest level.

Last month, the US State Department issued the highest-level travel warning for some Mexican towns next to the US–Mexico border due to high risks of IEDs, gun battles, kidnappings, and other chaos.

Drug cartels, including Tren de Aragua, Mara Salvatrucha, Cartel de Sinaloa, Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generacion, Carteles Unidos, Cartel del Noreste, Cartel del Golfo, and La Nueva Familia Michoacana, were recently designated as “foreign terrorist organizations” by the State Department as our latest reporting only suggests the Trump administration will destroy the command and control centers of these cartels responsible for the drug death overdose crisis in America that kills 100,000 per year. 

US equity futures are higher, reversing much of yesterday’s drop, and European bourses are at all time high, as the market braces for NVDA earnings after today’s close. As of 7:30am, S&P futures are up 0.6% while Nasdaq futures jump 0.8% as all Mag7 names are higher premarket ex-AAPL, while NVDA rises 2.6% aiding the bid for Semis and signaling a rebound on Wall Street after Tuesday’s drop, fueled by a weaker-than-expected consumer confidence print that stirred fears of an economic downturn. Bond yields are 1-2bps higher but with little reaction to the House passing the blueprint for the next budget that is likely to materially increase the deficit.  President Trump is set to meet Zelenskiy this week to sign an agreement giving the US control over half of the war-battered country’s natural resources. Elsewhere, China plans to start re-capitalizing several of its biggest banks in the coming months while BP announced it will increase its oil and gas production. The global risk-on tone is not extending to commodities where there is weakness across all 3 complexes. To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be Nvidia’s earnings after the US close; data releases include US new home sales for January.

In premarket trading, Super Micro Computer soars 25% after the company filed its 10-K for the period ending June 30, 2024, meeting a deadline for submitting outstanding financial reports to regain compliance and stay listed on the Nasdaq. Nvidia is leading premarket gains among the Mag 7 before its much-anticipated fourth-quarter results (Nvidia +2.4%, Tesla +2.0%, Amazon +1.1%, Meta Platforms +1.03%, Alphabet 0.8%, Microsoft +0.6%, Apple -0.5%). Power and electrical equipment companies are trading higher after a report said Meta (+1.03%) was in discussions to build a new data center campus for its AI projects that could cost more than $200 billion (SES AI +7.3%, NANO Nuclear Energy +6.6%, Oklo +7.0%, Vistra +3.7%, Celestica +4.3%, Vertiv +3.1%, Constellation Energy +1.8%, nVent Electric +0.5%). Here are some other notable premarket movers:

• Axon (AXON US) shares jump 16% after the maker of Tasers and body cameras gave a forecast for 2025 that beat analyst expectations. Analysts said that the update alleviated recent concerns over growing competition.
• Workday (WDAY US) shares climb 12% after the human-resources software company reported fourth-quarter results that beat expectations and gave a forecast.
• Intuit (INTU US) shares rise 8.7% after the tax-software company reported second-quarter results that beat expectations and affirmed its outlook. Morgan Stanley upgrades its rating to overweight.
• Lucid (LCID US) shares jump 1.5% after the electric-vehicle maker reported revenue for the fourth quarter that beat the average analyst estimate. The company will begin a search for a new leader after Chief Executive Officer Peter Rawlinson stepped aside to serve as an adviser.
• Cava (CAVA US) shares rise 1.2% after the Mediterranean restaurant chain reported fourth-quarter adjusted Ebitda and comparable sales that came ahead of estimates.
• Freeport-McMoRan (FCX US) shares advance 5.5% after US President Donald Trump signed an executive order that may open the door to tariffs on copper.
• Porch Group (PRCH US) shares soar 40% after the home-services software company reported its fourth-quarter results and gave an outlook.
• Flywire (FLYW US) shares sink 30% after the global payments enablement and software company reported fourth-quarter revenue that missed estimates. Deutsche Bank and BTIG downgraded their recommendations on the stock to a hold-equivalent rating, with the former viewing the full-year forecast as “disappointing.”

All eyes are on Nvidia todaywhich will report after the US market close. The result could determine Wall Street’s direction, especially for the technology sector, after recent months showed AI computing adoption won’t be a straight path. Options data imply share moves of about 10% in either direction around the report.

“The reality is, we need a good set of numbers from Nvidia to keep this bull track in place in the US,” said Guy Miller, chief market strategist Zurich Insurance Co. “It will be important that the numbers are good and the outlook is good. If it’s a really disappointing reading the market will be vulnerable to a further setback.”

Nvidia’s shares rose about 3% in premarket trading, signaling a recovery from the previous session’s 2.8% drop. Shares in the company are down almost 6% year-to-date, after blistering gains in the past couple of years. The concerns have rippled across the technology sector, pushing the Magnificent Seven group of bellwether tech stocks into correction territory on Tuesday.

Europe’s Stoxx 600 rises 0.8% to a record high, boosted by solid corporate earnings and optimism around a potential peace deal in Ukraine. Anheuser-Busch InBev shares surged the most in more than three years after growth in organic earnings topped estimates. Basic resources also outperform as copper prices rise on Trump’s tariff threat.
Sentiment was also boosted by strong results from a slew of companies including Banco Santander SA, Fresenius SE and Alcon AG while automaker Stellantis slipped on its latest numbers. Here are the biggest movers Wednesday:

• Anheuser-Busch InBev shares jump as much as 9.9%, the biggest intraday advance since October 2021, after the brewer reported fourth-quarter organic adjusted Ebitda that came ahead of estimates
• Fresenius SE shares gain as much as 7.5% after the German health-care group reported its latest earnings and updated guidance, with both 4Q sales and adjusted Ebit slightly ahead of projections
• Wienerberger gains 12%, the biggest daily advance since 2020, after the Austrian brick and roof-tile maker reported in-line earnings which Stifel says might mark the beginning of the end of a difficult period
• Novonesis gains as much as 5.6%, the most since June, after the Danish biopharma company reported its latest earnings which analysts see as solid and should reassure after some investor caution
• Adecco jumps as much as 6.1% after its results beat expectations. RBC Capital Markets analysts say the sector is approaching the trough, noting improved momentum seen in early 2025
• JDE Peet’s rises as much as 8.2%, the most in four months, after annual results were ahead of expectations. Jefferies said consensus may nudge higher following a “reassuring” outlook
• European mining shares are the best-performing sector on the Stoxx 600 as copper futures surged after President Donald Trump ordered the US Commerce Department to examine possible import tariffs
• Stellantis shares fall as much as 5.8% in Milan after the carmaker posted 2025 margin guidance that analysts called light, as questions around new leadership, tariffs and dealer inventories persist
• Wolters Kluwer sinks as much as 10%, the steepest intraday drop since 2020, after the Dutch information-services provider reported results that Morgan Stanley analysts described as a “mixed bag”
• Hikma falls as much as 12%, the most since 2017, after the UK drugmaker reported earnings. While the company met expectations, Panmure Liberum says the merely in-line print might not be enough
• ASMI shares fall as much as 4.1% as the Dutch chip equipment maker reported fourth quarter orders that missed estimates, driven by lower demand from Chinese clients
• Saab falls as much as 4.6% after it was reported US will ban the sale and use of US-made military components, parts, systems or technology for Saab’s Gripen fighter jets destined for Colombia
• Novartis shares drop as much as 2.8% after the Sandoz family sold a roughly 1.2% stake in the Swiss pharmaceutical group for CHF2.6 billion through an accelerated placement at a discount

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks were set to gain for the first time in three days after equities in mainland China and Hong Kong staged a strong rally amid a slew of positive developments. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 0.9%. Hong Kong shares rallied strongly, after Chinese AI platform DeepSeek reopened access to its core programming interface after nearly a three-week suspension. Chinese e-commerce giants Alibaba and Meituan were among the top contributors as a meeting between the regulator and some firms was seen as promoting fair competition and improving the market environment. Bank stocks climbed following a Bloomberg News report that China plans to start re-capitalizing several of its biggest lenders in coming months, following through on a broad stimulus package unveiled last year to shore up the struggling economy. Elsewhere, Thailand’s benchmark equity index jumped more than 2% after its central bank unexpectedly cut rates. Equities in Japan fell while Indian markets was shut for a holiday.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index halves a 0.2% advance as chances for early action on Trump’s tax cut plans improved after House Republicans passed a budget blueprint; month-end flows into the Tokyo fix offered support, also boosted by chances for early action on Donald Trump’s tax cut plans after House Republicans passed a budget blueprint.  EUR/USD slips 0.1% to 1.0500, versus 1.0487-1.0525 day range; euro struggles near year-to-date highs and the latest rejection opens up risk for a correction as the volatility skew remains in favor of the greenback across the curve. USD/JPY rises as much as 0.4% to 149.63, before halving the advance; focus on Friday’s Tokyo CPI data. GBP/USD down 0.1% at 1.2656, versus 1.2636 day low; BOE rate-setter Swati Dhingra set to speak.

In bond markets, treasuries halt a five-day rally after House Republicans passed a budget blueprint; Treasury yields rose across the curve with 10-year yields around 4.305% or ~1bp cheaper on the day, trailing bunds and gilts in the sector by 3bp-4bp; front-end underperformance flattens 2s10s spread by ~1bp. 10-year yield initially rose by as much as 4bps before losing traction and steadying after an 11-basis-point decline overnight took it to the lowest level since mid-December. Price action unwinds a portion of Tuesday’s steep flight-to-quality gains spurred in part by soft data and helped by strong demand for 5-year note auction. European government bonds climb, led by OATs with French 10-year yields falling 4 bps to 3.16%. German 10-year borrowing costs fall 2 bps to 2.43%. Money markets have raised their bets on Federal Reserve policy easing, and now price more than two quarter-point interest-rate reductions in 2025. Treasury’s $44b 7-year note auction follows strong demand for 2- and 5-year note sales earlier this week; the WI 7-year yield at ~4.24% is ~22bp richer than January’s, which stopped through by 0.9bp

In commodities, copper futures surged after the latest tariff threat, while gold traded just off the latest all-time high hit on Monday. Spot gold is flat near $2,915/oz. Bitcoin also steadies at around $89,000. Oil prices are treading water, with WTI near $69 a barrel.

Looking at today’s calendar, US economic data calendar includes January new home sales and building permits (10am). Fed speaker slate also includes Barkin (8:30am) and Bostic (12pm)

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures up 0.5% to 5,999.25
• STOXX Europe 600 up 0.8% to 558.39
• MXAP up 0.6% to 188.96
• MXAPJ up 1.2% to 596.29
• Nikkei down 0.2% to 38,142.37
• Topix down 0.3% to 2,716.40
• Hang Seng Index up 3.3% to 23,787.93
• Shanghai Composite up 1.0% to 3,380.21
• Sensex up 0.2% to 74,602.12
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.1% to 8,240.68
• Kospi up 0.4% to 2,641.09
• German 10Y yield little changed at 2.44%
• Euro down 0.2% to $1.0497
• Brent Futures up 0.3% to $73.23/bbl
• Gold spot up 0.0% to $2,915.54
• US Dollar Index up 0.14% to 106.46

Top Overnight News

• President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Tuesday instructing the Department of Commerce to investigate whether to impose tariffs on copper and derivative products, key industrial materials, in order to protect national security. This sets the stage for more trade friction with Canada and Mexico, as well as Chile and Peru. Politico
• Ukraine and Washington have struck a minerals rights deal, and Zelensky is expected to travel to Washington later in the week for a signing ceremony w/Trump. NYT
• House Republicans approved a budget framework for President Donald Trump’s sweeping domestic policy agenda Tuesday — a major victory for Speaker Mike Johnson who worked with Trump and fellow leaders in a chaotic last-ditch effort to win over naysayers within the GOP ranks. Politico
• US President Trump said will begin a program to sell ‘Trump gold cards’ for USD 5mln for foreigners who want to come to the US and create jobs with the sale of gold cards to start in about two weeks.
• The US House Ways and Means Committee has reportedly had discussions about options like ratcheting up taxes on public companies’ stock buybacks or adjusting limits on deducting executive pay, according to sources cited by Punchbowl. “Proposals such as raising endowment taxes on universities and significant cuts to clean energy tax credits are being viewed as even more likely”
• Super Micro (SMCI +21% premkt)  shares surged premarket after it filed documentation to become compliant with Nasdaq rules. BBG
• China plans to inject at least $55 billion into three of its biggest banks, people familiar said. The plan may be completed as soon as June and follows through on a broad stimulus package unveiled in 2024. BBG
• Hong Kong Financial Secretary Paul Chan forecasts 2%-3% GDP growth in 2025, as he looks to shrink the city’s deficit. Stamp duty will be lowered for some cheap homes, he said in his budget speech. The government will also invest in AI and cut about 10,000 civil service jobs. BBG
• Thailand’s central bank unexpectedly cut its policy rate by 25bp to 2% (the consensus was anticipating rates staying unchanged). WSJ
• Ukraine latest: French Finance Minister Eric Lombard said he believes the US has agreed to provide backup for European troops after a ceasefire. Budget airlines Ryanair and Wizz are already jostling to introduce routes ahead of any deal. BBG
• BP will boost oil and gas investment to about $10 billion a year, cut capex spending and boost cost-savings targets. It’s also reviewing its Castrol business, possibly worth as much as $10 billion if it were sold.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mixed as a tech rally in China offset the weak handover from Wall St where the Nasdaq led the declines once again and risk appetite was sapped by weak consumer confidence data. ASX 200 was led lower by weakness in mining, materials and consumer staples as participants digested disappointing Construction Work data which feeds into Australia’s GDP and with supermarket operator Woolworths pressured post-earnings. Nikkei 225 fell beneath the 38,000 level for the first time this year with the index underperforming following recent currency strength although was off worst levels as the yen then pared some of its recent advances. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp gained with Hong Kong leading the advances amid tech strength and recent earnings, while Hong Kong continued to record a higher deficit for this year in the Budget and will increase the scale of bond issuances.

Top Asian News

• China to reportedly start recapitalizing banks with at least USD 55bln, according to Bloomberg sources.
• Chinese President Xi urged to maintain stability across and calmly address domestic and international challenges.
• Hong Kong Financial Secretary delivered the Budget address and noted Hong Kong continues to record a higher budget deficit this year and will increase the scale of bond issuance, while the government aims to reduce accumulated expenditure by 7% in the fiscal year 2027-2028. Hong Kong’s government announced a reduction in salaries tax payable by 100% capped at HKD 1,500 and the HKMA is to launch a new CNY 100bln facility for renminbi trade financing liquidity support for banks.
• China’s NFRA and NDRC held a meeting on additional support for private firms; NFRA is to increase support for tech and private companies, according to Bloomberg. Has vowed to optimise the equity investment environment.

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.8%) opened stronger across the board and have continued to slowly grind higher as the session progressed; currently at highs. European sectors hold a strong positive bias; Basic Resources is by far the clear outperformer, lifted by strength in metals prices (amid US Commerce Secretary Lutnick’s copper comments). Media and Telecoms are both hampered by post-earning losses in Wolters Kluwer (-5%) and Deutsche Telekom (-3.8%) respectively.

Top European News

• BRC warned 160k part-time retail jobs are at risk of being axed over the next 3 years due to higher employer taxes announced in the Budget and regulatory changes.
• EU Commission proposes to mobilise EUR 100bln of funding to support EU-made “clean” manufacturing; EUR 1bln from current budget will be part of guarantees.

FX

• USD is attempting to claw back Tuesday’s losses which were in part triggered by the ongoing pullback in US yields with the latest leg lower led by a disappointing Consumer Confidence print. Elsewhere, events on Capitol Hill are increasingly in focus after the US House passed the Republican budget blueprint for advancing the Trump agenda and sent the measure to the Senate. DXY has ventured as high as 106.55 vs. Tuesday’s 106.78 peak. Note, if DXY reverses course, the YTD low sits at 106.16.
• EUR is marginally softer vs. the USD. Aside from ongoing focus for the bloc on efforts to fund the EU’s increased defence needs, macro drivers are relatively light. This morning’s GFK consumer sentiment data fell short of expectations, however, this has been largely shrugged off given the need to see how the coalition building process in Germany develops. EUR/USD is currently pivoting around the 1.05 mark.
• USD/JPY hit a fresh YTD low overnight at 148.56 in the aftermath of yesterday’s risk-averse moves in the US which acted as a drag on US yields. Fresh macro drivers out of Japan are lacking and therefore the USD leg of the equation may remain the driving force for the pair in the near-term. USD/JPY has ventured as high as 149.63 with focus on a potential reclaim of the 150 level.
• GBP marginally softer vs. the USD and flat vs. the EUR. Fresh macro drivers for the UK are lacking aside from yesterday’s announced increase in defence spending which is ultimately not set to move the dial on the fiscal front given that money from elsewhere will be reassigned to fund it. Cable is currently contained within Tuesday’s 1.2606-78 range, ahead of BoE’s Dhingra.
• Antipodeans are both softer vs. the broadly stronger USD. AUD/USD is now down for a fourth consecutive session after printing a YTD peak on Feb 21st at 0.6408. Overnight data saw disappointing Construction Work data (which feeds into Australia’s GDP) and an in-line print for monthly CPI (Weighted CPI YY 2.50% vs. Exp. 2.50%, Prev. 2.50%).
• Deutsche Bank month-end model: a reasonable shift towards USD buying, most pronounced vs European equities and as such points toward EUR/USD supply.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1732 vs exp. 7.2526 (prev. 7.1726).

Fixed Income

• An upward bias is present, though USTs remain in the red, a move off lows which began in the European morning despite a lack of specific drivers at the time and was potentially a function of a bout of pressure in the crude space weighing on yields. As it stands, USTs are at the mid-point of a 110-08 to 110-19+ band and while they have been in the green on a few occasions the moves have been fleeting at best and minimal in nature. Today’s session is largely a waiting game until the after-hours numbers from NVIDIA. However, we do get Fed’s Barkin & Bostic alongside a 7yr auction and more executive orders from POTUS beforehand.
• Bunds are firmer, picked up in the early European morning in tandem with the mentioned move in USTs. Aside from energy dynamics, drivers behind the move at the time were limited. Since, with newsflow quiet and despite a pick-up in the crude benchmarks, EGBs remain in the green and just off best. Specifically, Bunds picked up from a 132.24 base to opening levels of 132.47 in the early morning and then extended to a 132.76 peak after the cash open. Ahead traders will keep an eye out for remarks from French President Macron who is set to provide other EU leaders with a summary of his meeting with US President Trump. No move to the 2038/2036 Bund auctions.
• Gilts are in-fitting with EGBs. UK specifics have been very light so far as we await UK PM Starmer’s PMQs appearance for fresh insight into the defence spending increase he announced on Tuesday and details ahead of his US trip on Thursday. Gilts at the upper-end of a 93.07 to 93.48 band.
• Germany sells EUR 1.252bln vs Exp. EUR 1.5bln 1.00% 2038 and EUR 400mln vs exp 500mln 0.00% 2036 Bunds

Commodities

• Choppy trade across the crude complex once again after prices tumbled on Tuesday as soft consumer confidence data added fears to the demand side of the equation. Newsflow for the complex has been light this morning, although a mild dip was seen around the time Trafigura’s Global Oil Head Lockock suggested the oil market is pricing out geopolitical risk, and that OPEC will be pragmatic in its approach to oil supply. Brent Apr in a USD 72.40-72.81/bbl parameter.
• Upward bias across precious metals in what is seemingly a recovery of recent losses and come despite the firmer Dollar this morning. Spot gold resumed its gradual rebound from yesterday’s trough with the precious metal back above the USD 2,900/oz level.
• Copper futures continue to be underpinned following a power surge in Chile which affected all of state miner Codelco’s mines and prompted a state of emergency declaration, while prices were further boosted overnight on reports that the Trump administration will investigate the possible imposition of tariffs to rebuild the US copper industry. 3M LME copper trades on either side of USD 9,500/t in a USD 9,454.90-9,558.00/t range.
• US Private Inventory Data: Crude -0.6mln (exp. +2.6mln), Distillate -1.1mln (exp. -1.5mln), Gasoline +0.5mln (exp. -0.9mln), Cushing +1.2mln..
• Serbia’s increases crude oil and fuel reserves to supply market for at least three months, according to the energy minister.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• Mediators in Egypt and Qatar with the US administration are reportedly pushing towards the start of negotiations for the second phase of the Gaza agreement”, according to Palestinian sources cited by Al-Sharq
• Egypt Investment Minister says the details of the Gaza plan will be decided on the 4th of March.
• Israeli air force targeted military bases of the former Syrian army and destroyed “weapons means” in Damascus, while Israel’s Defence Minister said they will not allow a repeat of the experience of southern Lebanon in southern Syria and will not allow the stationing of Syrian forces in the buffer zone.
• Hamas appointed new commanders and is regrouping its military forces for a potential return to fighting with Israel in Gaza as mediators work to salvage the ceasefire that expires this weekend, according to WSJ.
• US Secretary of State Rubio and Saudi Arabia’s Defence Minister discussed ways to promote peace and stability in Syria, while they also discussed ways to promote peace and stability in Lebanon, Gaza, and across the region
• Israel is said to be pursuing an indefinite extension to the first phase Gaza ceasefire rather than moving to a planned second stage meant to end the conflict, according to FT sources.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Russia’s Kremlin says expert-level talks with the US are being prepared; no current plans for a US President Trump/ Russian President Putin call, but may take place if necessary; still interested in implementing economic cooperation in “different” areas.
• US President Trump said Ukrainian President Zelensky would like to sign a minerals deal with him, while Trump stated that they have pretty much negotiated their deal on rare earths and would like to get access to Russian rare earths.
• Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov says they don’t consider the option of European troops deployment in Ukraine.

Geopolitics: Taiwan

• Taiwan dispatches forces after China announces ‘shooting’ drills off island, says Taipei defence ministry via AFP

US Event Calendar

• Jan. Building Permits MoM, prior 0.1%
• Jan. Building Permits, prior 1.48m
• 07:00: Feb. MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -6.6%
• 10:00: Jan. New Home Sales MoM, est. -2.6%, prior 3.6%
• 10:00: Jan. New Home Sales, est. 680,000, prior 698,000

Central Banks

• 08:30: Fed’s Barkin Repeats Speech on Inflation
• 12:00: Fed’s Bostic Speaks on Economic Outlook, Housing

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Markets saw another decent risk-off move over the last 24 hours, as concerns about the US economic outlook continued to mount. There wasn’t a single catalyst, but there’s been some disappointing US data recently, and yesterday we found out that the Conference Board’s consumer confidence indicator hit an 8-month low. By the close, no asset class was immune from the slump, with equities losing ground, credit spreads widening, bond yields falling, and commodities selling off too. In fact, it’s now been the biggest 4-day decline for the S&P 500 since early September, and the Magnificent 7 was back in technical correction territory, having now shed more than -10% since their peak back in December. So that’s heightening the focus on Nvidia’s earnings after the US close tonight. Meanwhile for Bitcoin (-5.59%), it was the biggest daily fall since early September.

In terms of yesterday’s developments, it had looked like markets would start to stabilise again, with the S&P 500 broadly flat at the time of the US open. But a more negative tone quickly began to develop, particularly after the Conference Board’s indicator fell to just 98.3 in February (vs. 102.5 expected), making it the biggest slump on the previous month (-7pts) since August 2021, back when inflation was starting to surge and the delta variant of Covid was spreading. Moreover, the labour market indicators also worsened a bit, with the difference between those saying jobs were plentiful and hard to get down to a net 17.1%, which is the weakest since October. So collectively, this added to concerns that the US economy was slowing, a bit like we saw moving into last summer.

With all that in hand, US equities saw a decent slump yesterday, with a notable underperformance relative to Europe. For instance, the S&P 500 was down -0.47%, posting a 4th consecutive decline for the first time since the new year, and that was actually a recovery from an intraday low of -1.25%. The declines were concentrated among big tech stocks, with the Magnificent 7 (-2.25%) moving into correction territory, led by a -8.39% slump for Tesla as its European sales fell -45% year-on-year in January. By contrast, most of the S&P 500’s constituents actually put in a steady performance, with the equal-weighted index (+0.13%) eking out a second consecutive gain, whilst the Dow Jones was up +0.37%. So this wasn’t a broad-based decline.

On the rates side, the weaker data led markets to dial up their expectations for Fed rate cuts this year. So by the close, futures were pricing in 57.5bps of cuts by the December meeting, up +7.8bps on the day. Bear in mind the FOMC’s most recent dot plot in December only had 50bps of cuts pencilled in, so that’s the first time since the dot plot was released that the market is pricing a more dovish path than the Fed have signalled. And with investors growing more confident about rate cuts, that led to a significant decline in Treasury yields across the curve. For instance, the 2yr yield (-8.0bps) fell back to 4.10%, its lowest level since October, whilst the 10yr yield (-10.6bps) fell to 4.29%, its lowest since early December.

The risk-off tone was clear more broadly, with pretty much every asset class affected by the moves. Commodities took a particular hit given fears about economic demand, and Brent crude oil prices fell back to their lowest since December, at $73.02/bbl, whilst Bloomberg’s Commodity Spot Index (-0.67%) fell back for a third day running. In credit, US HY spreads moved up +5bps to 277bps, their widest in six weeks. And in the FX space, investors moved into havens, with the Japanese Yen moving up to its strongest level against the US dollar since October, whilst the Swiss Franc was another outperformer, strengthening +0.47% against the US Dollar. In the meantime, Bitcoin closed at a 3-month low of $88,702, leaving it -16.94% beneath its closing peak on January 21.

Elsewhere yesterday, there was significant news on European defence, as the UK announced that defence spending would increase to 2.5% of GDP from 2027, funded by a cut to overseas aid spending. Prime Minister Starmer also announced an aim to reach 3% in the next parliament (expected 2029-34). Meanwhile in Germany, discussions continued over a defence package, although CDU leader Friedrich Merz said he could “neither confirm nor deny” whether €200bn of additional investment in defence was being discussed. He also said that talks on a coalition with the SPD were already underway. Lastly in the US, there were also developments on the fiscal side, as the House of Representatives passed the Republican budget resolution. That includes $4.5tn of tax cuts, along with $2tn in spending cuts over the next decade. It only passed by 217-215, with just one Republican voting against, reflecting the Republicans’ narrow majority in the new Congress.

Amidst the prospect of higher spending, European equities put in a mixed performance yesterday. The STOXX 600 moved up +0.15%, closing just over half a percent beneath its all-time high from last week. But there was some divergence across the continent, with Germany’s DAX (-0.07%) and France’s CAC 40 (-0.49%) both losing ground, whilst Italy’s FTSE MIB (+0.63%) and Spain’s IBEX 35 (+0.80%) both advanced. German mid-caps continued to outperform though, with the MDAX index up +0.60%, and Rheinmetall (+0.15%) also saw a modest gain. Otherwise, there was a more consistent performance for sovereign bonds, which rallied across the continent. UK gilts saw the strongest performance, with the 10yr yield down -5.5bps, but yields on 10yr bunds (-1.9bps), OATs (-2.9bps) and BTPs (-3.0bps) also fell back.

Overnight in Asia, we’ve seen markets put in a stronger performance again, with the Hang Seng surging by +3.18%. That leaves its YTD gains at +18.47%, making it the top performer among the major global equity indices so far in 2025. Otherwise, there’ve also been gains for the Shanghai Comp (+0.75%), the CSI 300 (+0.44%) and the KOSPI (+0.36%). And looking forward, US equity futures have recovered as well, with those on the S&P 500 up +0.38%. However, Japanese equities are the main outlier, with the Nikkei down -0.70% after the yen closed at its strongest level in four months against the US Dollar yesterday, at 149.03. And in Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 (-0.14%) has also lost ground, despite the CPI data for January coming in slightly softer than expected at +2.5% (vs. +2.6% expected).

To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be Nvidia’s earnings after the US close. Otherwise, central bank speakers include the Fed’s Barkin and Bostic, along with the BoE’s Dhingra. And data releases include US new home sales for January.

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine prescriptions “soared far above” levels before the COVID-19 pandemic, according to a new study.

Researchers from the University of California – Los Angeles (UCLA) and other institutions said that nearly 3 million ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine prescriptions were issued during the pandemic, totaling some $272 million, according to a news release issued on Feb. 20.

The dispensing of ivermectin “from US pharmacies was nearly 1,000 percent higher than prepandemic rates,” the study said.

Usage of the two drugs was three times higher in people aged 65 and older, compared with people aged 18 to 64, according to the study published in the Health Affairs journal. Patients aged 65 and older represented 25 percent of adults in the study but constituted more than 59 percent of COVID-19-linked ivermectin usage and 68 percent of COVID-19-related hydroxychloroquine use, it found.

Hydroxychloroquine prescriptions and usage peaked in March 2020, when the pandemic started in the United States, to 133 percent of pre-pandemic rates, the UCLA news release said.

Meanwhile, ivermectin use increased dramatically throughout 2020 and 2021, the researchers noted. By August 2021, prescriptions for the drug had shot to more than 10 times higher than before the pandemic.

But after the COVID-19-specific medications, such as Pfizer’s Paxlovid, became more widely available, prescriptions for both hydroxychloroquine and ivermectin dropped some 93 percent. That drop took place between March 1, 2022, and June 30, 2023, they noted.

“Ivermectin use in particular was higher among people living in the most socially vulnerable neighborhoods and markedly higher in the southern United States,” they stated.

However, the “limited availability of COVID-19 medications does not appear to explain” what they described as a “wide geographic variation in ivermectin prescribing” such as in the South.

John Mafi, a senior study author with UCLA, said their findings “underscore the urgent need for policy reforms to combat misinformation and mistrust in scientific institutions,” asserting that “eliminating undue industry influence in government, enhancing transparency around scientific uncertainty, and earmarking public funding for clinical trials of new drugs are good places to start.”

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) said that it has not authorized ivermectin for use against COVID-19 and that it has received multiple reports of people using ivermectin that was designed for animals. The agency said that it has received no evidence to suggest that ivermectin, which is approved as an anti-parasitic medication, is effective against COVID-19.

However, some studies have shown that ivermectin has led to positive outcomes for some people who took the drug for COVID-19, including one study that showed it led to “large reductions” in deaths from the virus.

The FDA in 2020 warned against using hydroxychloroquine, an anti-malaria drug, to treat COVID-19 outside of hospitals or clinical trials and said it revoked its emergency use authorization to use the medication as well as chloroquine to treat COVID-19 in some hospitalized individuals.

At least one study, published in mid-2020, had shown that the drug had lowered the U.S. death rate, while one early survey touted its effectiveness.

In the UCLA paper, researchers evaluated 8.1 million insured patients from across the United States to evaluate spending and usage of the two drugs in the first three years of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Based on their analysis, they wrote that “an estimated 3,037,751 COVID-19-associated prescriptions for hydroxychloroquine and ivermectin totaling an estimated $271,559,207 in spending were provided in US outpatient settings throughout the public health emergency,” according to the study, which was funded by the Commonwealth Foundation and the National Institutes of Health.

The findings was published just days after Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was sworn in as the U.S. health secretary.

Among other criticisms directed at the FDA, Kennedy last year wrote that the agency is “biased against many low-cost” or generic drugs such as ivermectin and said that large pharmaceutical companies are involved in the FDA’s decision-making processes.

In 2024, the U.S. spent nearly $1 trillion on its defense budget, equal to 3.4% of GDP.

In contrast, NATO members in Europe and Canada spent an average of 2% of GDP on defense. While NATO’s defense budgets have declined since the Cold War, Russia’s military spending has surged by 227% since 2000, and China’s has skyrocketed by 566%.

This graphic, via Visual Capitalist’s Dorothy Neufeld, shows the top 15 largest defense budgets in 2024, based on data from the International Institute of Strategic Studies.

America’s Defense Budget Towers Over the Rest

Here are the largest defense budgets worldwide, illustrating America’s continued dominance of hard power amid unfolding geopolitical conflicts:

U.S. represents OMB adjusted figure. Russia represents National Defense budget plus military R&D funding, military pensions, paramilitary forces’ budgets, and other MoD-related expenses such as housing. Germany includes special fund allocation, military pensions, and military aid to Ukraine. UK includes Armed Forces Pension Scheme and military aid to Ukraine. Poland excludes Armed Forces Support Fund.

As the above table shows, the U.S. spends as much as the next 12 largest defense budgets combined.

Today, just five prime contractors receive 86% of the Pentagon’s spending compared to 51 contractors being allocated 6% of defense spending at the end of the Cold War. Arguably, this concentration has fostered overspending and lower productivity gains.

In an era of all things new, the Trump administration has fired senior leaders in the military, navy, coast guard, and air force. Senior lawyers were abruptly let go too. Overall, the Pentagon could shed 8% of its personnel.

Ranking in second is China, with a $235 billion defense budget. Yet on a purchasing power parity basis, it stands at $477 billion when adjusting for lower costs in China. Overall, the country’s military modernization includes 600 operational nuclear warheads that are projected to reach 1,000 by 2030 as the country increasingly focuses on reunification with Taiwan.

Russia has the third-largest defense budget globally, at $146 billion, representing 6% of the country’s national income—the highest share since the Cold War. Like China, this figure is much higher in real purchasing power terms, rising to $461 billion. Today, Russia’s nuclear arsenal rivals the U.S. with 5,000 warheads, despite being a medium-sized economy.

To learn more about this topic from a U.S. military perspective, check out this graphic on all of America’s military bases worldwide.

Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,

The UK could need up to $63 billion of investment in the power distribution network nationally to support additional demand and generation through 2050, double the current pace of additional investment, said the National Infrastructure Commission, the government’s independent infrastructure advisor.  

The UK will likely need investments of between $47 billion (£37 billion) and $63 billion (£50 billion) by 2050 as a “step change” is required in investment in Great Britain’s local electricity networks. 

This investment would be essential to achieve the government’s growth mission and lower long-term energy costs for consumers, the commission said in a report on Friday.  

The required investment levels would be at least a doubling of current annual allowances for load related expenditure, on top of business as usual investment, such as end of life asset replacement, the commission added.

The National Infrastructure Commission’s report says that with demand for electricity set to double by 2050, the current pace of additional investment in electricity distribution networks must also double to ensure the system can cope with rising demand and connect both new sources of renewable power and new electricity demands to the grid faster.  

Investments, however, are constrained by legislation. 

Current regulation by the energy regulator Ofgem “is too complex and doesn’t encourage distribution network operators (DNOs) to make the proactive investments needed to boost network capacity and provide resilience to future climate impacts,” the commission’s analysis found. 

In the report, the government’s infrastructure advisor calls for “a more proactive approach to both energy regulation and system planning.” 

Ofgem is currently seeking feedback on proposed changes to the grid connection policy from a first-come first-served approach to prioritizing projects where generation capacity is needed the most and projects are at a more advanced stage of development. 

The regulator looks to reform the current connections regulation which has become inadequate as some early-queued projects have fallen behind schedule while more advanced projects are waiting for years to connect to the grid. 

Hedge fund manager Kyle Bass is once again sounding the alarm over Chinese ownership of land across the United States, calling it one of the Chinese Communist Party’s “insane battlefield asymmetries.”

Bass, founder of Hayman Capital Management, made the comments during a wide-ranging interview with Chris Powers on The Fort podcast.

“We afford them what I call battlefield asymmetries that we should not afford to them,” Bass told Powers. “It doesn’t matter who you are in China; you can come to the U.S., you can buy 10,000 acres of farmland in Iowa, you can buy farmland in Texas, or you can buy 100,000 acres of land between our most active airbase and the border, which happened here in Texas. You can’t believe that these things are happening.”

.@Jkylebass to @fortworthchris: China Has ‘Insane Battlefield Asymmetry’ in U.S. Land Ownership

“We afford them what I call battlefield asymmetries that we should not afford to them. It doesn’t matter who you are in China; you can come to the U.S., you can buy 10,000 acres of… pic.twitter.com/PoCf3m1Iyt

— Josh Caplan (@joshdcaplan) February 24, 2025

Bass, who is also the founder of Conservation Equity Management, a Texas-based private equity firm focused on environmental sustainability, highlighted the stark contrast between U.S. policies and China’s restrictions on foreign land ownership, emphasizing the lack of reciprocity between the two superpowers.

“If you and I want to go buy land in China, do you know how successful we’d be? Zero—we would not; they wouldn’t, they don’t allow it. Reciprocity is really important; every single one of our internet search engines and social media companies is banned in China, and yet when TikTok gets banned here, or actually just got an order to be forcibly sold to an American company, they lose their mind,” the investor said.

Bass further criticized how China exploits the openness of American society while maintaining a tightly controlled system at home.

“When every single one of ours is banned over there, they manipulate everything that we do, and we are an open society; they are a closed society,” Bass explained. “They navigate, manipulate every single crack and crevice in our openness to take advantage of us.”

Bass also addressed how China counters U.S. efforts to regulate land purchases by framing opposition as on so-called discrimination:

“When you ask about them buying land, it’s absolutely insane that they can buy land in size over here, and then what they do when you start being more vociferous, or you even start to draft legislation to prevent it – they get like local real estate agents that are Chinese, Chinese Americans, or naturalized Chinese citizens, and they say, ‘You are just a racist; how can you tell a Chinese family in America that’s become Americans they can’t buy a house?’ They create false equivalencies and functional racism, and they throw it all at the screen, and they were trying, you know, now they have you on your back feet; it’s just insane what they do.

Chinese land purchases in the U.S. have become a growing concern among lawmakers and national security experts. The Trump White House has signaled an effort to ban China from buying U.S. farmland, particularly near military installations. According to a 2023 report by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), Canada holds 33% of foreign-owned U.S. agricultural and nonagricultural land, while China holds just 1%. However, the USDA acknowledged significant public concern regarding Chinese land holdings.

Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins has emphasized that banning Chinese land ownership is a priority. “One of the very, very top of the list perhaps is the Chinese purchase of our farmland. A lot of that land is around some of our military outposts,” Rollins said in a recent interview.

Concerns over national security have already prompted action in Texas, where lawmakers blocked a Chinese company from constructing a wind farm in Val Verde County. The Blue Hills Wind Farm was slated for the Devil’s River area, about 200 miles northwest of San Antonio, raising alarms over potential risks to critical infrastructure and national security.

Property owners and conservationists were the first to object to the project, citing environmental concerns and the risks of a foreign entity connecting to the Texas power grid.

Bass has been at the forefront of exposing such threats, exposing a Chinese landowner with alleged ties to the CCP, Sun Guangxin, who had planned to build the wind farm. Bass captured images of an airstrip on Sun’s ranch, alleging that Sun is a former general with strong connections to the Chinese Communist Party.

“When you’re able to plug directly in, you’re able to map it, you’re also able to upload malware, you can do all kinds of horrible things to our grid,” Bass warned.

Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,

The German government has resumed flights for Afghan refugees from Pakistan after a temporary suspension during the election campaign. On Tuesday, 155 Afghans arrived in Berlin, marking the first group to be transported since the election results secured power for the legacy parties CDU and SPD, who are expected to form a coalition government.

Flights for Afghan refugees were paused ahead of the election due to concerns over immigration and political optics. The decision followed a series of high-profile crimes committed by Afghan nationals, which fueled fears that further arrivals could strengthen the anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD) party.

The Federal Ministry of the Interior (BMI) had officially cited logistical issues as the reason for canceling two charter flights in the weeks leading up to the election.

Now, with the election concluded, approximately 3,000 Afghans currently waiting at reception centers in Islamabad are expected to be transported to Germany in the coming weeks.

According to Die Welt, Germany has accepted more than 48,000 Afghans since August 2021, with almost 36,000 classified as “particularly endangered” by the federal government. Reports indicate that the cost of these relocations has amounted to several hundred million euros.

The decision to suspend flights during the campaign followed a string of violent crimes involving Afghan nationals across Germany. 

Two weeks before the election, an Afghan migrant drove a vehicle into a left-wing Ver.di demonstration in Munich, injuring at least 28 people, including a toddler. Police confirmed that the attacker, 24-year-old Farhad Noori, was a rejected asylum seeker with a history of theft and other offenses. His asylum claim had been denied in 2020 after authorities deemed his account of persecution in Afghanistan to be fabricated.

The January 2024 fatal stabbing of a toddler and a 41-year-old man in Schöntal Park, Aschaffenburg, by a 28-year-old Afghan national who targeted a group from daycare, sparked national outrage and reignited calls for a suspension of new arrivals and expedited deportations back to the country now governed by the Taliban.

Other recent attacks involving Afghan nationals include the trial of a 19-year-old Afghan asylum seeker in Frankfurt who attacked a Ukrainian woman with a box cutter in broad daylight. Due to mental health concerns, he is unlikely to face prison time.

In June last year, a terror attack in Mannheim saw an Afghan migrant stab multiple people, including a police officer who later died from his injuries. Just days later, another Afghan national attacked police officers with a kitchen knife on the island of Rügen.

Germany’s evacuation of Afghans has been subject to scrutiny, particularly regarding security risks. In 2021, then-Federal Minister of the Interior Horst Seehofer (CSU) revealed that at least 20 of the Afghans evacuated by the Bundeswehr had failed security screenings. Among them were convicted rapists and individuals previously deported from Germany due to security concerns. Reports also indicated that some evacuees had ties to counter-terrorism watchlists.

The resumption of flights signals Germany’s continued commitment to Afghan resettlement, despite ongoing concerns over security and public safety. However, political debates surrounding migration and integration are likely to persist, especially as the AfD and other conservative factions push for stricter immigration controls.

🇩🇪‼️ Is this the quickest U-turn in political history?

After the CDU campaigned on strict immigration measures to take votes away from the AfD, chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz told a press conference the day after the election that “none of us want to close the borders.”… pic.twitter.com/Ngxt98ag3r

— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) February 24, 2025

The CDU, however, which talked tough during the election to sway voters away from the AfD, appears to have U-turned on its proposed radical approach, with chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz telling press on Monday that “no one wants to close the borders.”

Read more here…

Authored by Andrew Korybko via substack,

Any claims of Russia “backstabbing” or “selling out” China are absurd and driven by a desire to sow discord…

The “New Détente”, which refers to the ongoing efforts between Russia and the US to enter into a rapprochement in the New Cold War similar in spirit to what they agreed to half a century ago during the Old Cold War, is no longer speculation after the US’ pivot towards Russia at the UN. The US joined Russia in vetoing a resolution from the General Assembly that condemned Russia for its special operation and then Russia sided with the US in supporting the latter’s more neutral one in the Security Council.

This diplomatic choreography was clearly coordinated between Putin and Trump to show the entire world that they’re committed to the “New Détente”. In parallel with what was unfolding on the world stage, each leader also spoke highly about the future of their economic ties, with Trump hyping everyone up to expect “major economic transactions” while Putin hinted at cooperation in the aluminum and rare earth industries. This followed their representatives discussing Arctic energy cooperation in Riyadh.

It was foreseen in early January that “Creative Energy Diplomacy Can Lay The Basis For A Grand Russian-American Deal”, which readers can learn more about from the preceding hyperlinked analysis. The two dozen compromises suggested near the end have already been agreed upon in part as proven by the US withholding Article 5 guarantees from NATO countries’ troops in Ukraine, ruling out its membership in NATO, discussing energy cooperation with Russia, and flirting with other forms of sanctions relief.

Unlike what some have claimed, Trump isn’t trying to pull a so-called “Reverse Nixon” by incentivizing Russia to turn against China like his predecessor half a century ago incentivized China to turn against the erstwhile USSR, which is unrealistic to expect in any case. Rather, as explained in the analysis about creative energy diplomacy, the purpose is to incentivize Russia into placing limits on its resource and eventually military cooperation with China in order to erode its strategic advantages vis-à-vis the US.

From Trump’s view, this will avert the scenario of Russia turbocharging China’s superpower rise and thus even the odds of reaching a grand deal with the People’s Republic that’ll be more in the US’ favor, while Putin sees this as managing the global balance of power. From his perspective, Russia is incentivizing the US into relieving pressure upon it and unofficial paying reparations for the proxy war via investments into its resource industry and economy as a whole, all while redirecting the US’ military focus elsewhere.

The Kissinger-inspired pragmatism behind this arrangement is predictably opposed by each country’s most zealous supporters, both at the civil society and state levels, but more on the US’ side than Russia’s. Furthermore, even though China officially supports the emerging Russian-US rapprochement, it’s likely still very suspicious of this process but is playing it cool for now in order to not attract negative attention. These trends must be managed by both parties in order for their envisaged “New Détente” to succeed.

Trump is ignoring his powerless opponents at the civil society level and European state one while purging his much more powerful opponents at the domestic (“deep”) state level through Musk’s DOGE, with the outcome of Trump’s efforts in turn shaping what Putin will ultimately do. Since nothing tangible has been achieved thus far, the Russian leader doesn’t seem to be doing anything other than sending positive signals, but that could change if Trump agrees to the compromises that Putin requires for cutting a deal.

In that scenario, Russian publicly funded media’s narratives towards the US and the New Cold War more broadly could drastically shift, which would be expected to also influence the information products of those Russian-friendly members of the Alt-Media Community who take their cues from the Kremlin. To be clear, these figures and outlets are free-thinkers, but they trust Putin and the media that’s under his authority for guidance to better understand the global systemic transition and specific processes therein.

Dissident elements might no longer be platformed by Russian publicly funded media nor invited to Russia for conferences since their views would no longer conform with the Kremlin’s so that could motivate them to rethink their opposition to the “New Détente” in furtherance of their career interests. No such potentially high-profile dissent is expected at the domestic (“deep”) state level though due to the differences between Russia and the US’ systems so such forces are expected to easily fall into line.

As regards China’s speculative suspicions of the Russian-US rapprochement, Trump, Putin, their top diplomats, and other representatives are expected to make a concerted effort to allay their counterparts’ fears about this process in order to avoid an overreaction that could worsen China’s ties with each. That said, China is known for reacting calmly even to events that it disapproves of so no significantly negative response is expected, though Chinese-friendly Alt-Media figures might be a totally different story.

It’s entirely possible that they’d either be tacitly encouraged to fearmonger about the “New Détente”, including by sensationally claiming that Russia “sold out” to the US, or might interpret everything on their own this way and sincerely believe that expressing these views somehow helps China. In any case, it can’t be ruled out that the Alt-Media Community might bifurcate into Russian-friendly and Chinese-friendly halves wherein the influential Iranian-led Resistance segment aligns with the latter out of spite.

That last prediction is predicated on how upset many of these figures are after “Russia Dodged A Bullet By Wisely Choosing Not To Ally With The Now-Defeated Resistance Axis” as Israel systematically destroyed their regional network in West Asia over the course of the latest war. That outcome could be offset though if Iran later enters into its own “New Détente” with the US, after which it too could signal to its like-minded Alt-Media allies to shift their narratives like Russia might have earlier done by then.

All the insight shared thus far is conditional on the “New Détente” succeeding, the odds of which are increasing by the day as shown by the latest Russian-US developments and their respective leaders’ statements, hence the need to forecast the impact that this could have on the information sphere. The best-case scenario is that the pro-Chinese part of the Alt-Media Community doesn’t overreact on its own or is encouraged by China to respond that way so that the US can then more easily reach a deal with it.

Putin also endorsed Trump’s bold proposal for halving their defense budgets if everything works out between them, with the Russian leader even proposing that China do so too if it’s interested. He therefore clearly wants to promote or even help broker a Sino-US deal for resolving the root causes of their own security dilemma exactly as he and Trump are trying to do with theirs. Any claims of Russia “backstabbing” or “selling out” China are accordingly absurd and driven by a desire to sow discord.

If everything evolves along the trajectory that was outlined in this analysis, then the onus will be on China and to a lesser extent on Iran whether to get with the program by negotiating their own comprehensive deals with the US or to continue to defy it at the expense of jeopardizing world peace. Russia and the US’ diplomatic choreography at the UN, and Putin and Trump’s arguably coordinated economic-resource partnership statements, show that they trust each other and truly want peace.

China and Iran have repeatedly expressed that they trust Russia, both at the national and leadership levels, so it would be a moment of truth for them whether they’d then follow its lead by entering into their own talks with the US or go the opposite way in a sign that they never really trusted Russia. Whatever they do will in turn inform Russian policymakers, Putin chief among them, of their true intentions and could thus lead to pragmatic and peaceful recalibrations of Russia’s policy towards them.