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Six Israelis & Nearly 500 Palestinians Freed In Final Phase 1 Ceasefire Exchange

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Six Israelis & Nearly 500 Palestinians Freed In Final Phase 1 Ceasefire Exchange

The final six living hostages who were still in Hamas captivity have been released on Saturday, as part of the final hostage/prisoner exchange closing out phase one of the Israel-Hamas truce deal.

They are Tal Shoham, Omer Shem Tov, Omer Wenkert, Eliya Cohen, Avera Mengistu and Hisham al-Sayed, and this marks the largest single day of releases of this current ceasefire deal. There are four more deceased hostages whose bodies are expected to be handed over Saturday. 

Via AP

The men were released in two different locations, all looking frail, apparently having suffered significant weight loss.

Two of the Israeli men had already been captive in Gaza long before the events of Oct.7. They’ve been freed after a full decade, shockingly enough:

Shoham, Shem Tov, Wenkert and Cohen were all taken captive on October 7, 2023 during the Hamas-led attacks and massacres, and had been held as hostages in Gaza for over 500 days.

Mengistu and al-Sayed both entered Gaza on their own accord in 2014 and 2015, respectively, and had been held captive by terror groups in Gaza for around a decade each.

There are reports that the agreed to release of Palestinians prisoners from the Israeli side was delayed, but is now being facilitated.

It is a huge release this time – involving the transfer of 491 Palestinian detainees. The Red Cross is conducting pre-departure interviews and medical assessments, and are in contact with relatives.

Whether the ceasefire continues to hold into a second phase remains an open question. Each side has accused the other of violating the terms of the truce over the last month. 

Spokesman for Hamas’ political bureau Basem Naim has described, “Unfortunately, Netanyahu and his government have been rejecting to engage with the second phase while only one week is left from the first phase. We believe that again, these are dirty games from the right-wing government to sabotage and undermine the deal and to send a message of willingness to go back to war.”

At least one of the captives who had long been held by Hamas was mentally unwell when he was taken hostage:

“Over 100 Palestinians have been killed in the first phase, much of the agreed humanitarian aid was not allowed into Gaza, and the withdrawal from the Netzarim Corridor was postponed,” Naim said.

Tyler Durden
Sat, 02/22/2025 – 22:45

It All Comes Down To Accounting

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It All Comes Down To Accounting

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times,

There are two portals of money in every institution: money coming in and money going out. Keeping track of that in both directions is the key to operations. The final number can reveal profits or losses, surpluses or deficits. Regardless, the accounting books are the beating heart of every institution.

Accounting means accountability, holding people to account for their work.

This is why the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), formed by Elon Musk with a business-based mindset, sets its sights on two primary institutions in the federal government: the U.S. Treasury payment systems and the revenue agency. That is where the money goes out and where the money comes in.

Tying these together and tracing the funds with normal accounting standards is the key to eliminating waste, fraud, and abuse. This is all about verifying what is true. It’s not enough just to look at printouts of Congressional budgets or long spreadsheets published by some other agency. The only way to discern what is absolutely true is to go to the source.

The penetration of both ends of this have generated astonishing results, among which that many millions of Social Security recipients are apparently not alive. Or maybe they are and this is just a recordkeeping error. They are going to find out one way or another.

The most shocking revelation from the very limited look at the U.S. Treasury books that judges have permitted DOGE concerns proper tagging of expenditures. They have documented that $4.7 trillion in government spending is not tagged with what’s called a Treasury Access Symbol (TAS) that ties the spending to a Congressional authorization.

Those are huge numbers. Maybe all these expenditures are legitimate and authorized. Or maybe not. Without the TAS tag, there is no way to know. That change in the books has now been made mandatory so that at least we have the beginnings of a valid and verifiable system of accounting in government.

One does wonder. Every year, Congress debates the budget and there is horse trading all around with every politician fighting for a share of the loot. They estimate revenues. They forecast deficits and debts. After a version is produced that includes both the House and Senate, the final result is sent to the President for a signature.

From there, we’ve always just assumed that the deeper machinery of the bureaucracy takes it from there. But what if there is no real and necessary relationship between what Congress authorizes and what the President approves and what actually happens on the expenditure and revenue side? This seems to be the situation.

How long has this gone on? Five former Secretaries of the Treasury have said that it has been almost 80 years since elected officials and their appointees have had access to the payment systems. They have been controlled for all living memory by a small group of civil servants who have long walled themselves off from the electorate. This is a stunning realization, one of many that has been unearthed by the forensics being undertaken by DOGE. It remains entirely possible that once this group of appointed outsiders have completed their work, which is in two years, the budget will be balanced even with lower taxes.

That might sound crazy but it is entirely possible.

To be sure, many administrations have come and gone that swore to get to the bottom of the budget problem, to eliminate waste and fraud and make sure that the government is a better steward of public resources. But think about it. If they never really had certifiable access to the real-time sources of collecting and spending, what good could they actually do? This time does seem to be different.

It fascinates me that the real battles of our time really do come down to something as granular and seemingly mundane as accounting. One hundred years ago, a big debate broke out within economics and political science over accounting and its role. This debate spoke directly to the issue of economic systems and which would be best for society.

The socialists in those days said that they would implement their vision with collective ownership of the means of production and the assignment of experts at the top to direct the use of resources. Economist Ludwig von Mises in 1920 made the salient point. He said that with collective ownership, there would be no operational markets for capital goods and thus no market prices for them.

Market prices are essential for calculating profit and loss through means of double-entry bookkeeping. Without that, even the smartest central planning would lack access to data concerning the wisest use of scarce resources. They would have no idea what consumers valued relative to other options and no idea what kinds of materials were available to meet those needs.

For this reason, Mises said, socialism would institutionalize economic irrationality. Creating an actual economy—meaning an environment in which resources were deployed to their most socially optimal ends—would be impossible. The unfolding of events in Russia proved his point. The experience of socialism in every country would always end up the same: despots at the top squandering resources until the whole society sank into desperate poverty.

Mises concluded from his deductions that the only real system that allows for rational economizing is the market economy with private property in the capital-good sectors. His argument was shocking, and debated for 20 years following, simply because he was bringing cold hard truths to a subject that had been dominated for far too long by airy philosophy that had nothing to do with the realities of the material world.

Similarly, government has always had an accounting problem. It does not know what to charge for goods and services and its decisions about revenue were ultimately arbitrary. The larger the government budget, the more irrationality itself is baked into economic structures. That is a given.

That said, there at least should be some attempt to keep track by creating a web of relationships between what is approved, where the money comes from, and how it is used. This is just normal bookkeeping, without which fraudsters and corruption run rampant.

It truly boggles the mind that fully $4.7 trillion in federal expenditures have routinely taken place without any real obligation to attach that spending to an authorized source. It makes one wonder if all the debates about the budget and all the voting and signing ceremonies have been nothing but theater for generations.

What also intrigues me about this line of thinking and work is how, in the end, this is not really about big ideological and philosophical debates about the purposes and scope of government. This is really about something very simple: how the nation goes about balancing its checkbook. Until we get that part right, all the rest of the debates are so much hot air.

No matter your political outlook, you should be grateful that DOGE seems finally to be setting things right in the operations of government. There absolutely must be a standard of compliance with accounting practices that every single business, nonprofit, or household has to use in order to maintain economic viability. After DOGE does its work, government should continue to practice the precedent established in these days, weeks, and months.

The whole reason for accounting and careful audits is to verify what is true and thus enhance public trust in their own government. Again, we can argue all day about what the government should and should not do, but until we know for certain what is actually going on, such debates mean nothing.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden
Sat, 02/22/2025 – 22:10

Efforts To Arrange Trump–Putin Meeting Underway, Moscow Says

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Efforts To Arrange Trump–Putin Meeting Underway, Moscow Says

Authored by Ryan Morgan via The Epoch Times,

Moscow is working to arrange a face-to-face meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov announced on Feb. 22.

In remarks he shared with Russian state media, Ryabkov indicated that efforts to arrange the meeting have begun in earnest but will require “the most intensive preparatory work.”

The Russian official said U.S. and Russian envoys could meet “within the next two weeks” to lay the groundwork for the eventual talks between the two leaders.

If Washington and Moscow can arrange for the two leaders to meet, it will mark the first time that a U.S. president and a Russian president met directly since June 2021, when Putin met with then-U.S. President Joe Biden in Geneva, Switzerland.

Such a meeting would also mark the first in-person between the leaders of the United States and Russia since Moscow’s troops marched on Ukraine three years ago.

The Ukraine conflict has strained already contentious U.S.–Russia relations. The United States has been Ukraine’s foremost supporter, providing the most funding for Ukraine-related assistance of any country that has supported Kyiv throughout the conflict.

The Trump administration has sought to pair negotiations for a peace settlement in the Ukraine conflict with a broader effort to improve U.S.–Russia relations.

A U.S. delegation comprised of Secretary of State Marco Rubio, White House national security adviser Mike Waltz, and special presidential envoy Steve Witkoff met with a Russian delegation in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on Feb. 18 as part of the ongoing Trump administration efforts to reestablish regular dialogue with Moscow.

Following the Riyadh meeting, Rubio announced both delegations had agreed to appoint high-level teams to work together to settle the Ukraine conflict. Rubio also said the two delegations agreed to establish a mechanism to address strains in U.S.–Russia relations and lay the groundwork for possible future cooperation between the two countries on areas of shared geopolitical and economic interests.

In his remarks to the press after the Riyadh meeting, Rubio said cooperation between the United States and Russia on geopolitical and economic issues would be contingent on a successful and enduring peace settlement in the Ukraine conflict.

In a Feb. 20 interview, journalist Catherine Herridge asked Rubio what the potential timeline is for a sit-down meeting between Trump and Putin. Rubio responded: 

“There isn’t going to be a meeting until we know what the meeting is going to be about.

“I think when that meeting happens will largely depend on whether we can make any progress on ending the war in Ukraine, and if we can, and that meeting is what seals the deal.”

While the Trump administration has tried to open up lines of communication with Moscow, it has also had to contend with frustration from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Trump and Zelenskyy traded barbs this week, with Trump calling Zelenskyy a dictator and Zelenskyy accusing Trump of being swayed by Russian disinformation.

At a White House press availability on Feb. 21, Trump faced questions about his comment that Zelenskyy was a dictator and whether he should apply the same label against Putin. Trump didn’t directly answer the question but instead said Putin and Zelenskyy should eventually engage with one another more directly as part of the effort to reach a peace settlement.

“I think that President Putin and President Zelenskyy are going to have to get together because, you know what, we want to stop killing millions of people,” Trump said.

Twice during his remarks on Friday, Trump denied reports that he plans to travel to Moscow to meet with Putin on May 9.

Tyler Durden
Sat, 02/22/2025 – 21:35

Federal Judge Rules In Favor Of Trump Government Layoffs

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Federal Judge Rules In Favor Of Trump Government Layoffs

Authored by Eric Lendrum via American Greatness,

On Thursday, a federal judge ruled that the Trump Administration can proceed with plans to carry out mass firings of federal employees.

As reported by The Hill, U.S. District Judge Christopher Cooper, who was appointed by Barack Obama, ruled that the labor unions which filed the lawsuit against the government layoffs had to take their case before the Federal Labor Relations Authority (FLRA) rather than a federal court.

“The first month of President Trump’s second administration has been defined by an onslaught of executive actions that have caused, some say by design, disruption and even chaos in widespread quarters of American society,” said Judge Cooper.

“Affected citizens and their advocates have challenged many of these actions on an emergency basis in this Court and others across the country. Certain of the President’s actions have been temporarily halted; others have been permitted to proceed, at least for the time being. These mixed results should surprise no one.”

Following through on another campaign promise, President Donald Trump has been firing thousands of federal workers, across all agencies, in an effort to shrink the size of the federal bureaucracy.

To this end, President Trump also offered an unprecedented buyout offer, known as the “Fork in the Road” initiative, granting up to 8 months of paid vacation to all federal employees who submitted their immediate resignation. 

Over 75,000 employees accepted the offer before its expiration deadline. 

Several attempts to block the buyout offer ultimately failed in court.

The most recent case, which led to Judge Cooper’s ruling, was brought by a coalition of labor unions representing federal workers, including the National Treasury Employees Union (NTEU), the National Federation of Federal Employees (NFFE), the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers (IAMAW), the International Federation of Professional and Technical Engineers (IFPTE), and the United Auto Workers (UAW).

Judge Cooper ultimately did not rule on the validity of the unions’ argument, which claimed that the executive branch’s actions are in violation of the separation of powers, but instead told the unions to make their case in a different setting.

“The Court acknowledges that district court review of these sweeping executive actions may be more expedient,” the judge wrote.

“But NTEU provides no reason why it could not seek relief from the FLRA on behalf of a class of plaintiffs and admits that it would ask other agencies to follow an administrative judge’s ruling in its favor.”

Tyler Durden
Sat, 02/22/2025 – 20:25

How Many Federal Government Workers Has Trump Fired So Far?

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How Many Federal Government Workers Has Trump Fired So Far?

The first month of Donald Trump’s second term has been a hurricane of activity, with Elon Musk’s DOGE pursuing a scorched earth policy on government waste.  Despite continuing disruptions by Democrats and activist judges the audits of federal government agencies continue.  Trump’s executive orders are likely designed to catch the bureaucracy off guard so they don’t have time to hide their mismanagement.  However, in all that beautiful mayhem many in the public are confused as to what cuts have actually been made.

Establishment economists are predicting a recession for the Washington DC area due to the mass layoffs (which is not necessarily a bad thing).  The concern over recession within the financial media helps to illustrate how real the cuts are and how worried the progressives have become.  Some argue that conservative employees will be caught up in the cleansing along with their leftist counterparts, however, looking at the voting record of the population of DC it’s not much of a threat. 

Over 92% of the district voted for Kamala Harris in 2024.  Only one Republican candidate has ever won more than 20% of the DC vote (Richard Nixon in 1972).  The town is crawling with leftists, many of them working within the bowels of the government.  No tears should be shed over rising unemployment in Washington.

The federal government employs 3 million civilian workers today – A massive number.  The last time the government had this many employees was in 1994.  The foundation for ever growing government was established in 1933 under Democrat President Franklin D. Roosevelt’s “New Deal”; social programs and debt spending became the norm.  The national debt grew by 50% in only three years after the New Deal was passed and, contrary to the propaganda, it accomplished little in the way of solving the problems at the root of the Great Depression. 

Trump’s federal cuts, if he follows through as he has promised, could mean the smallest federal government apparatus in almost a century.  Here is a list of agencies that have received pink slips so far…

USAID

Trump now has the legal go-ahead to gut USAID.  The organization has at least 10,000 employees and most of them will be fired in the coming weeks.  So far 2000 are being put on leave while others are being reviewed to determine if they are essential.  It is expected that Trump will ultimately keep less than 300.  

Deferred Resignations

The White House offered a “deferred resignation” proposal in exchange for financial incentives to almost all federal employees who opted to leave their jobs by February 6th.  But a federal judge blocked Trump’s plan, wanting to hear arguments from the administration and the labor unions.  According to the Office of Personnel Management, about 75,000 federal employees had accepted the offer.

Probationary Employee Layoffs

Federal workers with less than one year on the job are subject to immediate layoffs.  All agencies have been ordered to fire such employees, meaning up to 220,000 are let go.  Many of these probationary workers are included in the general cuts for institutions like the Department of Defense.

IRS

Trump is moving ahead with layoffs within the IRS.  The agency employs at least 100,000 people and Trump’s cuts only affect 6000 of them.  However, questions are swirling over Trump’s intentions to eliminate the IRS entirely, a move which most Americans would welcome.   

Department of Homeland Security and TSA

The DHS has executed only 400 layoffs so far, all of them considered “non-mission critical” personnel.

FAA

The FAA has fired 400 staff according to the union representing the employees.  DOGE has also been ordered to further investigate and streamline the efficiency of the agency.

Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

100 workers have been fired from the CFPB.

Department of Education

The battle over the Dept. of Education is ongoing.  No measurable layoffs have been executed yet, but Trump says he intends on removing the agency entirely, which would mean 4400 worker layoffs.

Department of Energy

The department famous under the Biden Administration for hiring a trans activist official that liked to steal women’s luggage from airports.  Approximately 2000 personnel have been fired so far.

Department of Health and Human Services

Thousands of probationary employees were cut from the HHS and NIH along with 700 employees fired from the CDC.

Department of Land Management

At least 2300 employees have been let go including 800 from BLM and 1000 from the National Park Service.

EPA

Around 500 staff have been terminated from the EPA after an efficiency review, including the entire staff of the EPA’s Diversity and Inclusion office.

Small Business Administration

720 SBA employees were fired, including hundreds of probationary workers. 

US Forest Service

Around 3400 employees have been terminated from the Forest Service, at least 10% of the total staff.  Much griping has been made in the media about these job losses, though many of them involved positions in “climate change education” and DEI initiatives.  The layoffs do not include firefighters, law enforcement officers, bridge inspectors or meteorologists.

Inspectors General

Each of the federal government’s largest agencies has its own independent inspector general who is supposed to conduct objective audits, prevent fraud and promote efficiency.  Trump has fired at least 17 of them and it’s understandable why.  With the amount of fraud and waste DOGE has found so far, it’s difficult to justify their continued employment.  What a surprise, the bureaucrats policing the bureaucrats doesn’t work.

Department of Justice

Trump is firing all Biden era attorneys from the DOJ, including those that hounded him over the last four years.  The Justice Department said last month that it had fired more than a dozen employees who worked on criminal prosecutions of Trump by special counsel Jack Smith’s team.

State Department

A large number of senior career diplomats who served in politically appointed leadership positions, as well as in lower-level posts at the State Department, left their jobs at the demand of the new administration.  It was not immediately clear how many nonpolitical appointees were being asked to leave.

DOGE’s Window Of Opportunity

Given that Trump has faced ongoing legal challenges on his crusade to reduce the size of government, the level of cuts is still extensive.  DOGE is a limited program that ends in 18 months, just in time for Mid-Term elections where Trump will need to solidify the conservative control of the Congress and Senate while also booting out those pesky deep state Neo-Cons still haunting the the halls.  Whatever layoffs they plan to enforce will all be done in the next year.

This means the whirlwind will continue. Legal opposition will likely wane as it becomes clear to Democrats that there’s nothing they can do to stop the policies that the American people voted for.  It will be interesting to see what the federal government looks like in 2026.        

Tyler Durden
Sat, 02/22/2025 – 19:50

How Long Before This Thing Is Roaming Around Exterminating People?

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How Long Before This Thing Is Roaming Around Exterminating People?

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

A video of a humanoid automaton coming to life has gone viral on X, and has people asking how long before this thing is weaponised?

The synthetic human-like creature, named Clone Alpha, was created by a company called Clone Robotics, which seems to have directly taken inspiration from the dystopian TV show Westworld.

Even its company logo is the same as imagery in the show’s opening credits. 

The company claims that the “muscuskeletal androids” are designed designed to help around the home with menial tasks including cleaning, washing clothes, unloading the dishwasher and making sandwiches.

However, it is also “capable of witty dialogue,” as well as “following you around.”

The machine can also charge itself and comes “equipped with the Telekinesis training platform to let you teach your Clone Alpha new skills.”

The Clone Robotics company says it will produce 279 of the creatures and is taking pre orders. The retail price is not listed, but a robot hand they also sell is listed for $2800.

What’s with the creepy music?

Would you want one of these in your home?

In your home with your kids?

*  *  *

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden
Sat, 02/22/2025 – 19:15

“What Did You Do Last Week?”: Musk Says Federal Employees Have Until Midnight On Monday To Explain Work, Or They’re Fired

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“What Did You Do Last Week?”: Musk Says Federal Employees Have Until Midnight On Monday To Explain Work, Or They’re Fired

Elon Musk is ‘running the Twitter playbook on the government,’ after writing in a Saturday post on X that all federal employees will be receiving an email “shortly” requesting to “understand what they got done last week.”

Those who fail to reply “will be taken as a resignation.”

And there it is (though no mention of the implied resignations for failure to respond):

When X user ‘The Rabbit Hole’ commented that Musk is “running the Twitter playbook on the government,” Musk replied: “It works.“

The post came hours after President Donald Trump encouraged Musk to “get more aggressive” with the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), adding “REMEMBER, WE HAVE A COUNTRY TO SAVE.“

Musk’s email comes after roughly 77,000 federal employees accepted DOGE’s “Fork in the Road” email offering roughly 8 months of pay in exchange for resigning. After that, DOGE moved to fire thousands of employees across various agencies – mostly those in a probationary period who have been in their jobs for less than one year.

It also comes after the Trump administration scored a legal victory when a judge allowed Musk and crew to continue accessing federal data and arranging for mass layoffs.

Last week, Trump signed an executive order directing agencies to work with DOGE to make “preparations to initiate large-scale reductions in force.”

*  *  *

If you’re a federal employee who needs to get their shit together, pick up some IQ Biologix Peak Focus nootropic. 

 

Tyler Durden
Sat, 02/22/2025 – 18:40

Previewing Sunday’s Critical German Election: All You Need To Know

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Previewing Sunday’s Critical German Election: All You Need To Know

We previously previewed tomorrow’s German election in an extensive article (see “Everything You Need To Know About The Upcoming German Election“) but with so much at stake, with Elon now going all in…

… and with the situation more fluid by the day…

Source: Polymarket

… it’s time for a quick reassessment of where we stand (we summarize various reports from DB, Goldman and Bloomberg).

1. Executive Summary

Polls, coalition options and potential impact on policies

  • Polls: The conservative CDU/CSU is leading the polls with 31 followed by the far right AfD at around 21 the Social Democrats at 15 and the Greens at 13%. A lot of attention will be on whether the three smaller parties (FDP, BSW, Left) make it into parliament
  • Timeline: First projections based on exit polls after 6 pm CET on February 23 preliminary results from 6 30 pm CET on and then updated during the night/early morning
  • Coalition formation: Coalition negotiations might take several weeks as they require some difficult compromises 

Coalition options

  • Base case – two party grand coalition: Polls suggest that the Conservatives could form a coalition government with either the SPD or the Greens A CDU/CSU SPD coalition appears more likely as polls suggest it could achieve a more comfortable majority On defence/foreign policy, there are significant policy overlaps with the Greens
  • Surprise – three party centrist coalition – “Kenya”(CDU/CSU-SPD-Greens) or “Germany”(CDU/CSU-SPD-FDP). On the one hand, a three party coalition could prove to be rather fractious and result in fraught policy compromises On the other hand, a “ coalition might increase the chance of a meaningful shift in fiscal policy if centrist parties kept the two thirds majority 

What’s are the risks?

  • Downside risk – blocking minority of fringe parties (AfD & BSW): This would imply that constitutional change for setting up an off budget defense/infrastructure fund/debt brake reform is contingent on concessions to the fringe parties or not possible at all
  • Absolute tail risk – AfD as part of the government: Extremely high bar to be crossed all parties credibly rule out that option ex ante

Potential impact on policies

  • Fiscal policy pivot towards higher spending – The perceived erosion of Europe’s security architecture makes it likely for the new government to swiftly agree on funding higher defence spending outside the debt brake. The fiscal impulse could be material However, the short term growth multiplier should not be overestimated, with the bulk of military procurement going abroad Debt brake reform for the Länder might provide additional and more immediate fiscal stimulus from 2026 onwards
  • Compromises on structural reforms – A CDU/CSU led coalition could potentially agree on a step by step reduction of the corporate tax burden, streamlined administrative processes, and measures to lower electricity prices, but no major pension reform 

How much of the election is already factored into our forecasts?

  • For 2025, Deutsche Bank expects the economy to grow by 0.5%. The bank’s 2026 forecast is predicated on a meaningful probability that the next government relaxes the constitution debt brake to allow more debt financed investment. Without it, the status quo would imply structural stagnation

2. Backround

  • A deeply divided coalition government in Berlin has failed to take the hard decisions needed to turn Germany’s economy around. The snap election on Feb 23. is therefore a chance for voters to deliver a stronger government capable of tackling the country’s pressing problems.
  • The main danger is that the poll yields another fragmented parliament. This could leave a power vacuum at the heart of Europe during a particularly challenging time and, eventually, result in a government that is too weak to implement much-needed reform. Furthermore, much of the proposed fiscal stimulus emanating out of Germany has already been priced into European stocks, so a “tail” outcome tomorrow could have a major adverse impact on European markets.
  • The greater the number of parties that enter parliament, the higher the risk that the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU)/Christian Social Union (CSU) alliance and the Social Democratic Party (SPD) have too few seats to form a grand coalition.
  • Policy uncertainty is already through the roof in Germany and this is weighing on growth as companies delay investment decisions. The more time it takes to form a coalition, the greater the delay in kickstarting an economic recovery.
  • The duration of coalition talks will also show how willing parties are to overcome their differences to tackle urgent issues such as structurally weak growth, a potential US-Russia deal on Ukraine and a transatlantic trade war.
  • Polling stations will close on Sunday at 6:00 pm Berlin time. Sufficient clarity about the election results should emerge during the evening. The CDU/CSU alliance is set to win, according to opinion polls. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) would have to close a 10-percentage-point gap to defeat the center-right parties.  
  • Barring any surprises, CDU leader Friedrich Merz will become the next chancellor. However, the CDU/CSU alliance is unlikely to have enough seats to lead a cabinet on its own, which means it will have to form a coalition with other parties.
  • Merz has repeatedly declared he will not cut a deal with the AfD. The Free Democratic Party (FDP) isn’t seen as a suitable partner, since it will probably not have enough seats to make a difference — it might even struggle to make it into the Bundestag (national parliament).
  • The most obvious option for Merz is to form a coalition with either the SPD, the Greens, or both. The ideological distance between the Greens and the CDU on social issues such as migration remains large, which means it might be easier for him to cut a deal with the social democrats.
  • Still, much will depend on the distribution of seats in parliament. The more parties enter the Bundestag, the higher the risk that the CDU/CSU and the SPD might not have enough seats to form a government by themselves.

3. Timeline:

Timeline for the Bundestag election 2025: What will happen from voting until government formation

4. Polls

Germany heading towards new leadership? Conservatives are leading the polls, while the right wing AfD and Left gained further support

Accuracy of polls seems reasonably good: Far right AfD seems not to be systematically underestimated in polls

What is driving voters’ decisions? State of the economy is more important for voters’ decisions than immigration

5. Electoral System

Germany‘s mixed electoral system demystified: Peculiarities of the voting system might have an impact on the election outcome

Postal voting has started two weeks ago: Increasingly popular option among German voters

6. Coalition Formation

Zooming in on coalition negotiations: Coalition agreement in spring might provide psychological boost to confidence

Preview of potential coalition options: Conservatives likely to lead the next government according to current polls

7. Policy Outcomes

CDU/CSU – SPD or CDU/CSU – Green coalition – agree to disagree? Where do ex ante policy stances differ?

Potential impact of CDU/CSU policies on the economy: More supply-side policies, but still fiscal hawkishness

Economic policy implications: Fiscal policy pivoting towards higher defence spending

The fiscal defence policy nexus: Smaller parties not necessarily standing in the way of constitutional reform

Constitutional majorities and fiscal regime change: The more fragmentation, the less likely a fiscal regime shift

Zeitenwende 2.0 moment in defence spending: Pivot towards higher defence spending early in the next parliamentary term

Fiscal regime change – a cheat sheet for potential options: Policy options, needed majorities and potential timelines

Germany’s stance on joint EU borrowing: How to fund the VdL 2.0 policy priorities

8. Economic Outlook

How much of the election outcome is already factored into DB’s forecasts? A meaningful relaxation of the debt brake is not part of the 2025 baseline forecasts

9. Much-Needed Reforms

  • A stable coalition would also strengthen Germany’s ability to respond to a long list of pressing economic challenges and thus, support growth in the medium and long term. Germany has to improve its productivity and revive competitiveness while at the same time deal with the threat of high US tariffs and the requirement to boost defense spending.  
  • What all these challenges have in common is that they will likely end up costing a lot of money. The good news is that, in principle, Germany would have the necessary fiscal leeway. According to our estimates, it could raise public investment spending by 1% of GDP in the coming years and the debt-to-GDP ratio would still fall until 2040 and settle below the 60% mark.
  • One main thing to watch is whether the parties that favor a reform of the very strict national fiscal rule, the so-called debt brake, will have the necessary two-third majority in parliament to deliver the required constitutional revision. Conversely, a very fragmented parliament would undermine the ability of the centrist parties to revise the current borrowing limit.

10. Tail Risks

What’s in the tails? Surprises, downside and extreme tail risks

Scenarios for a blocking minority of the far right AfD: Would require significant shift of approval rates and no small party entering the Bundestag

11. Challenges to Forming a Government

  • The country’s political fragmentation means that negotiations to form a coalition might not be straightforward. CDU’s Merz has shown during the campaign that he wants to move more to the right on migration.
  • That’s further away from the SPD’s stance and in order to make any deal with Merz more palatable to its electorate, the social democrats will try to extract as much as possible (for instance on economic issues) during negotiations.
  • Recent elections show coalition negotiations have taken a substantially long time to wrap up. However, the bleak economic situation and uncertain geopolitics might provide an incentive for parties to accelerate discussions. In fact, how long it takes to form a government will indicate how willing parties are to work together to deal with Germany’s impending challenges.
  • A minority government or new elections would be the available options if coalition negotiations were to fail. However, parties would likely try to avoid a repeat poll given voters might punish them for failing to form a government.

12. Election of the Federal Chancellor: Usually just a formality

More in the full presentation available to pro subscribers.

Tyler Durden
Sat, 02/22/2025 – 18:05

“We Created A Monster With Zelensky”: White House Isn’t Backing Down In Growing Rift

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“We Created A Monster With Zelensky”: White House Isn’t Backing Down In Growing Rift

Axios has released a devastating report full of quotes from Trump admin officials which strongly suggests the growing rift with Zelensky is only about to worsen. 

The Ukrainian leader is seen as having overstepped by the White House. A US administration official involved in peace negotiations with Russia bluntly told the publication that “Zelensky is an actor who committed a common mistake of theater kids: He started to think he’s the character he plays on TV.“ 

“Yes, he has been brave and stood up to Russia. But he would be six feet under if it wasn’t for the millions we spent, and he needs to exit stage right with all the drama,” the unidentified official said. This strongly suggests that Trump is pursuing a full political transition in Ukraine at this point.

Photograph/poster obtained by Le Monde depicting Zelensky’s early young acting years.

Another official, also involved in negotiations described that “We created a monster with Zelensky,” and that “these Trump-deranged Europeans who won’t send troops are giving him terrible advice.”

Speaking of which, one Saturday headline has revealed the European Union is still seeking ways to seize part of Russa’s frozen $280 billion in assets held abroad. So while Washington under Trump is trying to strike peace and compromise, the Europeans look content to try and sabotage what they already see as a ‘bad deal’ to end the war.

Yet another US official was quoted in Axios as reviewing that “In the course of a week, Zelensky rebuffed President Trump’s treasury secretary, his secretary of state and his vice president, all before moving on to personally insulting President Trump in the press.“

The unnamed official followed with, “What did Zelensky think was going to happen?”

Meanwhile a mineral deal is said to be close, with some Friday night headlines claiming a final deal was ‘hours’ away – but Zelensky’s office has said it’s still mulling over the first draft. “President Trump is obviously very frustrated right now with President Zelensky,” National Security Advisor Mike Waltz underscored in Thursday comments.

The same Axios report has summarized what it calls Zelensky’s five moves that set off Trump in the following…

Six administration officials tell Axios that during the past nine days there were five incidents that angered Trump, Vice President Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Waltz. Taken together, one administration official said, Zelensky “showed how not to do the ‘Art of the Deal’ ” when it came to courting Trump’s support:

  • Feb. 12: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent met Zelensky in Kyiv to offer a proposal that would give the U.S. access to Ukrainian mineral rights in return for de facto U.S. protection. Trump later told reporters Zelensky was “rude” and delayed his meeting with Bessent because he slept in.
  • Feb. 14: At the Munich Security Conference, Vance and Rubio met Zelensky to get his approval for the mineral rights deal. But, the officials said, Zelensky surprised the Americans by saying he didn’t have the authority to unilaterally approve it without parliament.
  • Feb. 15: Zelensky publicly rejected the offer at the conference. White House sources noted that his remarks to reporters — that the deal was “not in the interests of a sovereign Ukraine” — were markedly different from more positive-sounding comments he’d made on X the day before.
  • Feb. 18: As Rubio, Waltz and presidential envoy Steve Witkoff sat down with Russian negotiators in Saudi Arabia to talk peace, Zelensky criticized the meeting for occurring without Ukraine at the table. An angry Trump then lashed out at Zelensky at a Mar-a-Lago press conference, falsely suggesting Zelensky had started the war with Russia and had an approval rating of only 4%.
  • Feb. 19: Zelensky fired back, saying the U.S. president “lives in a disinformation space.” Trump then ratcheted up the pressure by posting on Truth Social that Zelensky, a former actor, was a “modestly successful comedian” who has become a “dictator without elections.” Trump has refused to criticize Putin as a dictator.

* * *

The Washington Post is also asking on Saturday: Can Zelensky salvage his relationship with Trump and save Ukraine? This after Trump accused Zelensky of being a ‘dictator’ this week, given his refusal to hold new elections, citing martial law – and after banning multiple political parties seen as too ‘pro-Russian’…

Given this week’s anti-Zelensky rhetoric coming out of the US administration, the European allies are worried Trump will ‘give away more’ amid ongoing strong diplomatic engagement with Moscow (after already declaring that Ukraine won’t become a NATO member). Of course, Kiev is fearful of this too, which is why Zelensky’s advisors are imploring him to stop the rhetorical tit-for-tat and be silent on answering every ‘provocation’ come from the White House. Next week will be interesting to see where all of this goes.

Tyler Durden
Sat, 02/22/2025 – 17:30

Trump & Russia: Is This Good Or Bad For Markets?

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Trump & Russia: Is This Good Or Bad For Markets?

Authored by Russell Clark via Capital Flows & Asset Markets blog,

Trump has done exactly what he said he was going to do, and negotiated with Russia directly to end the war in Ukraine. The Trump deal with Russia could be very bullish for Europe, as it could see Russian sanctions lifted, and oil and gas prices fall. This would be particularly bullish for Germany, as it has suffered from high energy prices. Although far less than in 2022, European energy prices are far higher than in the US or Russia.

Likewise, increased food supply from Ukraine and Russia could be bring down food prices – which would be bullish.

After decades of stagnation, Europe has broken out of its range, even as the Trump deal with Putin would seemingly be a negative.

It is easy to argue the opposite way. Generally speaking, when a dictator has succeeded in using force to increase their power and prestige, it is difficult for them to give up the gun, and the Baltics, like Ukraine used to be part of the Soviet Union. It is hard to find any equity weakness in this area. MSCI Baltics has ripped.

My best guess for all this bullishness would be the likelihood that the German government is going to abandon is fiscal austerity, and move to a more US style fiscal expansion – which should be good for equities and bad for bonds. That is Trump abandoning Ukraine has forced Germany to abandon austerity – and that is bullish.

The more interesting question is whether this is good for China or bad for China? On first blush, the market has decided it good. To be fair, for the Chinese tech sector we have also seen the emergence of DeepSeek and the rehabilitation of Jack Ma, and so the Hang Seng Tech index has doubled in 6 months.

On a more geo-political view, the implication is that President Trump is moving to a sphere of influence model – where Europe has to deal with Russia and its neighbours, while the US deals with its neighbours how it sees fit. The logic then is that China is free to deal with its neighbours how it sees fit too – and will not suffer consequences. In other words, China can harass and absorb Taiwan with impunity. For investors in Chinese assets this is bullish as you can now discount the risk of sanctions – which is what hurt foreign investors into Russia assets. Gazprom London listing is an example of this risk.

If Kissinger, who talked to Trump extensively during his first time, was still alive, then I would say this was unequivocally bad for China. “How so?” you might ask? Kissinger was instrumental in the ping pong diplomacy of the 1970s, that saw China and the US establish diplomatic relationships. For those you who learn history from popular culture (I learnt more about the royal family from “The Crown” that I ever learnt from any history class), Forrest Gump playing table tennis in China was basically seen as a way for the US to reach out to China. Kissinger was a prime mover in this. The driver of this détente was to isolate USSR- and from a economic point of view, betting on China versus Russia from this point of time made you a sure fire winner.

First of all there are two things to remember – China and Russia will always be important nations, by dint of the their population and land mass respectively. When they are aligned, they are very difficult to defeat, as we have seen in Ukraine, where Chinese technology has kept Russia in the game. But China and Russia are not natural allies – for most of their history they have faced off against each other. Hard to believe now, but the Soviet Union was not even that supportive of the Chinese Communist Party in its civil war for control of China, at least until the end of the Second World War. Prior to this, China/Russian relations has been defined by battle for control of the far east. If the US can bring Russia into the fold, then China become extremely exposed on oil imports, just at the US was in the 1970s.

China like the US in the 1970s is now heavily reliant on the Middle East for its oil. Bringing Russia into the fold would make energy a choke point for the Chinese economy.

Kissinger is no longer with us – so I don’t know if this is part of the plan. But Trump has always signalled that China is the true enemy of the US, not Russia. And a secure Russia would probably go along with a strategy that weakened China, if only to prove the importance of Russia to both the US and China. The thing is Kissinger had a clear aim of avoiding an open clash between the USSR and USA. Trumps aims tend to be less clear, at least to me. If it is the Kissinger line of thinking, then the current rally in Chinese tech is clear trap. But if we are moving to sphere of influence, and deal with China, then perhaps they are a buy. I find geo-politics difficult to read – but all I know is that government spending is going to go up globally – and that is bad for bonds. Japanese bonds continue to be weak.

Politics is a funny thing I have found. It is not always clear how politicians are going to behave – which I why I suspect voters loved the move to free markets in the 1980s and 1990s – it was a move away from domineering politicians. Having fallen out of love with free markets – we are moving back to domineering politicians. Markets think a deal with Russia is bad for oil prices and good for China – but I could see the reverse being true.

Tyler Durden
Sat, 02/22/2025 – 16:55