By Michael Every of Rabobank

With the much-vaunted ‘Fed Put’ under discussion —is it still there, and if not, how can markets do their job without knowing they will get bailed out for egregious errors of judgement?– the Fed’s March meeting was closely watched: see Phil Marey’s take, ‘Inertia’. As expected, the Fed did nothing: except lower growth and raise inflation expectations; move closer to suggesting no cuts this year; and still see everything reverting to mean in 2027 (“because neoclassical economics”, which has no home in the White House). In short, they are in wait-and-see mode.

A Trump-Putin meeting seems close – but is a workable peace deal? After a “very good” call with President Zelensky, the US says if it takes ownership of Ukraine’s nuclear power plants it would provide the “best protection for that infrastructure.” Again with the US assets, not boots, on the ground.

Some voices point out an obvious argument: Russia can’t stop its war economy because it has its own momentum, powerful vested interests, and there’s no plan B. Whether that alone motivates President Putin or, as others allege, he genuinely enjoys a return to 18th, 19th, and first-half-of-the-20th century-style statecraft remains to be seen. Regardless, it’s bad news for Europe.

For the EU, the worst possible scenario is the US waking away with Russia walking forwards. In that case, what’s already been agreed on new defense spending is nowhere near enough – as we warned. Militarily, the “four-year” scheme promised would have to be more like 14, say experts.

Europe’s new €150bn centralised military fund also won’t buy US, British, or Turkish arms. Yes, it’s an EU fund and national governments can still spend as they please. Yet this sits awkwardly alongside “Can we get a defence guarantee for our troops in Ukraine, President Trump?”; “Can we have your nuclear umbrella, PM Starmer?”; and “Protect us and Ukraine, President Erdogan.” (As Turkey’s markets collapse following the leading opposition presidential candidate, and current Istanbul mayor, being detained.) Canada –whose military makes Europe’s look good– will cooperate with the EU on a defence build-up, not just the US, but not from that €150bn pot, nor doing anything to help US-Canada relations.

Summarising, a Financial Times op-ed, ‘Europe is only half awake from its long sleep’, points out current europhoria could age like milk given its arms build-up is likely to split it: Spain and Portugal are out, as those closer to Moscow are in. That pressure can build to a fissure if not watched. (Elsewhere in the FT, Martin Wolf has yet to follow up on his promise to dissect the ‘Mar-a-Lago Accord’: presumably he’s still trying to poke holes in it before publishing.)

Europe also doesn’t have the bandwidth to cope well with more than one geopolitical issue at once as many conflate besides Russia-Ukraine. However:

On the EU’s doorstep in the Balkans, Bosnia could be on the brink of conflict. The former US NSA Balkans director states, “Any world-weary Austro-Hungarian functionary from over a century ago could be briefed up on Bosnia’s current problems in under five minutes. Only some names have changed. Without seeming alarmist, I recommend that no archdukes, or their current European Union equivalents, journey to Sarajevo this season.”

Trump’s letter to Iran reportedly has a 2-month deadline to strike a nuclear deal – or else, and local reports suggest Tehran may prefer US strikes to submitting. Markets may opt to shrug until bombs drop, but the fat tail risk just got fatter and more fixed in terms of timing.

Watching closely, Israel’s PM attacked “the leftist Deep State” in his country and the US as he prepares to fire the head of the Shin Bet internal security service today, against the instruction of his attorney general, who might also be fired, setting up a constitutional crisis. The local take is that traditionally risk-averse Netanyahu is now ‘all in’. (To be clear, the PM can fire the SB head; just not when the latter is investigating allegations the PM, already on trial over corruption charges, had a top aide who received cash from Qatar, which the opposition is calling “treason”.)

Congo is offering the US a trade deal – kick out rebels in the country and get critical minerals. This is the new (old!) realpolitik of key supply chains Europe doesn’t get when it talks about making “upstream investment in third countries’ critical minerals.” You have to fight for them at times – and, for now, the EU still can’t.

Copper prices are leaping as huge quantities of the metal flow to the US ahead of the start of feared 25% tariffs. In some cases, this is leaving other markets physically short. Possession is nine tenths of the law, as they say. And rearmament does require copper.

So does more spending, as Chinese banks are told to offer ultra-cheap consumer loans. If that strategy works, it means even higher consumer debt and higher global inflation and global rebalancing of sorts.

Elsewhere, China or Hong Kong could potentially block the recently-agreed sale of CK Hutchinson’s stake in Panama’s two ports and 43 other facilities in 23 countries to BlackRock – if so, that would set up a US-China geopolitical clash over this key issue at a time when the US military is reportedly already drafting plans for an invasion. That’s as US steps to try to reclaim the seas for itself commercially see the ‘Maritime Industry Warn USTR’s China Port Fees Could Sink US Economy’ – and that process kicks off Monday.

Talking of sudden inflation (and hedges), Trump is to speak on crypto today, to a traditionally libertarian crowd. That’s as Le Monde reports a French scientist, who came to the US for a scientific conference, was expelled after a random search turned up electronic messages highly critical of Trump, which were deemed as a “potential terrorism” threat.

Meanwhile, as Trump will reportedly also close the US Department of Education, Harvard has been forced to offer a remedial algebra course to its maths undergrads for the first time.

There is so much going on, so much of it is so radically different from what most are used to, and collectively it can be so transformative, that it can be easy to stick to old narratives, cherry pick data and headlines, and presume things will turn out the way that suits our book. Or to assume through all this there will still be the Fed Put. I’m not saying there won’t: but relying solely on it rather than looking more broadly risks you being the Fed Putz.

Following January’s big tumble in existing home sales (blamed in large part on winter storms… which apparently surprised analysts as happening in the winter and impacting sales), expectations – despite suddenly declining mortgage rates – were for February to see further weakness in sales (-3.2% MoM).

As we suspected (in our sarcastic intro), sales surprised bigly to the upside in February, rising 4.2% MoM (from a revised 4.7% MoM decline in January). That is the biggest MoM jump since Feb 2024…

Source: Bloomberg

However, despite the rebound, sales remain down 1.2% YoY.

Source: Bloomberg

Sales climbed the most in the West and South, which were afflicted at the start of the year by destructive wildfires in Los Angeles and severe winter storms, respectively. 

To the extent January sales were affected by weather, NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said last month that those transactions would be carried into February.

“Home buyers are slowly entering the market,” Yun said in a statement. 

“Mortgage rates have not changed much, but more inventory and choices are releasing pent-up housing demand.”

Source: Bloomberg

The supply of previously owned homes jumped 17% from a year ago to 1.24 million, the most for any February since 2020.

Even so, the median sales price increased 3.8% from a year ago to $398,400 – a record for the month – extending a run of year-over-year price gains dating back to mid-2023.

Which got us thinking…

While home prices (in nominal dollars) are testing new record highs, the number of ounces of gold required to buy a home is at its lowest level in 12 years.

Copper prices on the London Metal Exchange surpassed $10,000 per ton on Thursday, driven by concerns over President Trump’s potential tariff expansion on the crucial industrial metal used in everything from electric vehicles to power grids. Traders are rushing to deliver copper into the US before potential tariffs later this year. 

On Feb. 25, President Trump signed an executive order directing the US Department of Commerce to investigate the potential national security risks of copper imports, which could lead to tariffs on all copper imports—including raw mined copper, copper concentrates, refined copper, copper alloys, scrap copper, and certain derivative products. Since then, US prices have surged, and traders have been rushing to send their metal to the US ahead of tariffs, thereby tightening global supplies. The Secretary of Commerce will submit a report to the president 270 days from when the executive order was signed. 

According to BMO analysts, while the destination of copper exiting LME warehouses remains unknown, US trade data shows copper imports are increasing. 

“This is a round of cross-regional repricing triggered by potential US tariffs,” said Wei Lai, deputy trading head at Zijin Mining Investment Shanghai, adding, “Cargoes are lured to the US, leaving other places in shortfall. Buying sentiment is very strong.”

On Thursday, LME copper prices increased by a half percentage point to $10,046 a ton — the highest level since October — while prices on New York’s Comex inched closer to record highs. 

The spread between the copper Comex futures and LME futures widened to more than $1,254 per ton this week, surpassing its February peak of around $1,149. 

“Copper just keeps grinding as it takes out $10k, we said it will overshoot, and its overshooting! Nothing more to my eye than this is when GIR expect refined metal tightness to deliver deficits (2Q25 onwards) and US is dragging metal in that will be stranded,” Goldman analyst James McGeoch penned in a note to clients earlier. 

Last month, Goldman’s Eoin Dinsmore and others reinitiated their coverage of copper with a new medium-run $10,500-11,500/t range forecast. This call was based on three drivers:

1. Strong Electrification Demand. We believe the electrification megatrend will continue to reshape copper demand. That became clear in 2024, when despite a 10% drop in copper demand from the China construction sector, electrification drove a solid 4% YoY increase in China refined copper demand. Electrification will account for all copper demand growth to 2030. And the grid alone makes up over 50% of the growth, adding the equivalent of another US to global copper demand.

2. China Copper Stimulus. Copper demand is set to disproportionately benefit from China stimulus in sectors such as appliances and EVs. We estimate China stimulus will add 2pp to China copper demand growth, while tariffs knock off only 0.8pp. We forecast China refined copper demand to grow by 4% in 2025, as the boost from structural electrification and stimulus well outweigh the drags from weakness in construction and tariffs. However, several stimulus programs pull forward demand, with copper demand growth slowing markedly from 2027.

3. Ali Cap and Chile Floor. Copper demand will rise by 4Mt by 2030, requiring substantial growth in mine and scrap supply. We believe that substitution away from copper (when the copper price trades >4x the aluminium price) will cap the copper price at $10,500/t in 2025 and $11,500t in 2026. Mine supply growth will primarily come from short lead-time, low capex mines in DR Congo, but maintaining stable supply from Chile remains crucial. A price of $10,500/t will be needed by 2026 for enough new mine capacity to be developed and to avoid large deficits by the early 2030s. We think the scrap share of total demand will remain flat, offering little relief to future market tightness.

The Commerce Department’s investigation into copper imports is unlikely to deliver recommendations for the president until the end of the year. In the meantime, copper supplies flow into the US while global supplies tighten. 

Authored by Gabrielle Temaat via The College Fix,

UPenn under investigation for allowing male on women’s swim team…

President Donald Trump’s administration is withholding $175 million from the University of Pennsylvania due to the school’s failure to ban men from women’s sports.

The White House announced the decision in a post on X Wednesday, citing the university’s “policies forcing women to compete with men in sports.”

The $175 million makes up approximately 20 percent of the total federal funds the university received last year, with the payments coming from the Department of Defense and the Department of Health and Human Services, a White House official told The New York Post.

However, the White House has not officially notified the school of the funding freeze.

A UPenn spokesperson told Fox News the school is “aware of media reports suggesting a suspension of $175 million in federal funding to Penn, but have not yet received any official notification or any details.”

“It is important to note, however, that Penn has always followed NCAA and Ivy League policies regarding student participation on athletic teams. We have been in the past, and remain today, in full compliance with the regulations that apply to not only Penn, but all of our NCAA and Ivy League peer institutions,” the spokesperson stated.

The funding pause follows a recent executive order signed by Trump titled “Keeping Men Out of Women’s Sports.”

The president said the order will protect women from being bullied, injured, and treated unfairly, and “there will be no federal funding” for schools and universities that do not follow the order, The College Fix previously reported.

UPenn is currently under investigation by the U.S. Department of Education for potential Title IX violations and risks losing all federal funding, Fox News reported.

The university allowed trans-identifying male swimmer William “Lia” Thomas to represent the women’s swim team during the 2021-22 season.

“UPenn infamously permitted a male to compete on its women’s swimming team, overturning multiple records hard-earned by women, and granting the fully intact male access to the locker room,” a White House official told The Post.

Three former UPenn athletes who competed alongside Thomas that season have filed a lawsuit, alleging Title IX violations, The Daily Pennsylvanian reported.

In addition, the Department of Education recently sent a letter to the National Collegiate Athletic Association urging it to revoke titles and records previously earned by Thomas and all other trans-identifying men who competed against women.

The federal department is also investigating San Jose State University for allowing transgender athlete Blaire Fleming to compete on the women’s volleyball team, Fox News reported.

Five teams forfeited their matches rather than competing against the male player, The College Fix previously reported.

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The White House on March 17 announced a drop in egg and gasoline prices, calling it a win for the Trump administration’s economic agenda.

“Americans are continuing to see the benefits as the economic agenda of President Donald J. Trump and his administration comes into focus,” the White House press office said in a statement.

The average wholesale price per dozen of eggs has dropped to $3.10, down 47 percent from $6.55 per dozen from Jan. 21, 2025, the White House said.

Egg prices soared in recent months, reaching an average high of $4.95 per dozen in January, according to the Department of Labor. From January 2024 to January 2025, egg prices increased by 54 percent, data show.

A primary reason for the skyrocketing prices is avian influenza, which has led to the culling of tens of millions of egg-laying hens in recent months.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) said last month that more than 23 million birds were culled in January to contain the virus, which followed the winnowing of more than 18 million in December 2024.

Several weeks ago, the USDA warned that egg prices could jump by more than 40 percent in 2025, with Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins noting that it would take some time before consumers would see an effect at the checkout counter.

It takes months for infected farms to dispose of the carcasses, sanitize their farms, and raise new birds, she said, while expressing optimism that the plan will help prices.

“It’s going to take a while to get through, I think in the next month or two, but hopefully by summer,” Rollins said.

The USDA has enough staff to respond to bird flu despite the recent cuts to the federal workforce, Rollins said.

“Will we have the resources needed to address the plan I just laid out? We are convinced that we will,” she said, “as we realign and evaluate where USDA has been spending money, where our employees are spending their time.”

Aside from egg prices, the Trump administration on Monday said that gasoline prices have also dropped in recent weeks.

“The nationwide average for gas has declined for four straight weeks—down ten cents from one month ago and 42 cents from one year ago,” the statement said, pointing to data showing that the average for a gallon of gas is $2.99 or less at more than two-thirds of all stations.

The Trump administration has faced some blowback in recent days over its economic polices, particularly tariffs, and declines in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq.

When asked about the stock market index declines and tariffs, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in an interview over the weekend that the markets are entering correction territory. He also said that the administration’s policies are designed to stave off a broader economic decline, but he did not rule out a recession.

“There’s no reason that it has to [go into a recession],“ he said in response to an NBC News moderator’s question. ”But I can tell you that if we’d kept on this track, what I could guarantee is we would have had a financial crisis. I’ve studied it. I’ve taught it.

“And if we had kept up at these spending levels, that everything was unsustainable. We are resetting and we are putting things on a sustainable path.”

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Apple is now 6.5 years behind the foldable smartphone trend, which first emerged in late 2018 with the Royole FlexPai, a folable handset from the Chinese phone company Royole. The first widely recognized foldable phone, Samsung Galaxy Fold, debuted in 2019 but required a redesign due to durability concerns.

Since then, the foldable market has expanded with major handset manufacturers—including Huawei, Motorola, Xiaomi, Google, OnePlus, Vivo, and Microsoft—releasing their own models. 

MacRumors senior analyst Joe Rossignol wrote in a note on Tuesday that several sources have informed him about a potential foldable iPhone in the works. 

Here’s more:

There are now several sources who agree that Apple’s first foldable iPhone will feature a 7.8-inch inner display when unfolded, along with a 5.5-inch outer display. Those sources include analysts Ming-Chi Kuo and Jeff Pu, along with the Weibo account Digital Chat Station. The fact that these display sizes are now agreed upon and have been leaked indicates that Apple may have finalized at least some of the device’s specifications.

The foldable iPhone will open up like a book, according to Kuo, rather than have a clamshell design like Samsung’s Galaxy Z Flip.

Pu said the foldable iPhone recently entered the New Product Introduction (NPI) stage at manufacturer Foxconn, suggesting that Apple is moving forward with plans to release the device. Pu and Kuo both believe that the foldable iPhone will enter mass production in the fourth quarter of 2026, which means the device could launch as soon as next year in limited quantities, but a release at some point in 2027 seems more likely.

As funny as it might sound, the foldable iPhone seems to be two years away for real this time.

Barclays analyst Tim Long recently estimated that Apple’s first foldable iPhone could start at around $2,299 in the U.S., meaning it would cost nearly twice as much as the iPhone 16 Pro Max, which starts at $1,199 there.

In addition to the 7.8-inch inner display and 5.5-inch outer display, Kuo said the foldable iPhone will feature two rear cameras, one front camera, a Touch ID power button instead of Face ID, and a high-density battery. He expects the device to be as thin as 4.5mm when unfolded, and between 9mm and 9.5mm when folded. He also said the device will have a titanium exterior, but the hinge will use a mix of titanium and stainless steel.

In a separate note, Goldman analysts Allen Chang and others plotted price points of the various foldable handsets on the market. 

2024 to 2025 smartphone model launch pipeline

A detailed infographic illustrating Apple’s iPhone supply chain in China.

Apple might be late to the foldable handset market, but the real question is whether consumers actually want another unaffordable device from Tim Cook. Additionally, Cook’s AI-powered Siri iPhone was a flop, and the Vision Pro was an epic disaster. Apple needs to reinvent itself.

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Tuesday sent an alert to health officials and providers about relatively elevated levels of dengue fever cases.

“Dengue activity remains high in some parts of the United States and globally, with many countries reporting higher-than-usual numbers of dengue cases in 2024 and 2025,” the CDC warned in a bulletin.

The agency urged health care providers and state and local health agencies, along with the public, to take steps to detect and prevent dengue.

Transmission remains high in North America and South America, including in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, both territories of the United States, the CDC said.

“Spring and summer travel coincides with the peak season for dengue in many countries, increasing the risk of both travel-associated and locally acquired cases in the United States,” the CDC said in an alert.

The federal health agency pointed to data, updated as of March 10, that shows more than 13 million cases of dengue reported in North America, Central America, and South America, as well as the Caribbean region. It noted that local transmission of the virus was reported in Florida, California, and Texas last year.

Also known as “break-bone fever” because it can be so painful, dengue is transmitted by the Aedes aegypti mosquito. Four different but related viruses cause the disease: dengue virus 1, 2, 3, and 4, according to health officials.

The World Health Organization says that about half the world’s population is at risk of getting the disease and that there are 100 million to 400 million infections every year. Symptoms can include fever, severe headaches, and pain in muscles and joints. There is no widely available medicine for treating dengue infections.

Last year, the CDC sent out a similar health alert about an increased risk of dengue infections across the United States.

“Global incidence of dengue in 2024 has been the highest on record for this calendar year; many countries are reporting higher-than-usual dengue case numbers,” the CDC said in its June 2024 advisory.

Some people can experience no signs or symptoms of a dengue infection. But when symptoms do occur, they can be mistaken for another illness such as influenza. Symptoms usually start between four and 10 days after being bitten by a dengue-infected mosquito, according to the Mayo Clinic. The virus generally causes a high fever of 104 degrees Fahrenheit and can include several other symptoms.

These include muscle, bone, or joint pain; vomiting; nausea; pain behind the eyes; swollen glands; and a rash. In some cases, the symptoms can become life-threatening in what is known as “severe dengue,” dengue hemorrhagic fever, or dengue shock syndrome, the clinic says on its website.

The severe symptoms often can occur after the fever goes away and can include persistent vomiting, abdominal pain, fatigue, rapid breathing, bleeding gums or nose, blood in stool or vomit, restlessness, thirst, pale and cold skin, and weakness.

Complications from severe forms of the disease can lead to organ damage, severe bleeding, and breathing problems, according to the Johns Hopkins Medical School.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Morgan Stanley is set to cut around 2,000 jobs by the end of the month as part of a broader effort to enhance operational efficiency, according to a report from Bloomberg. At the same time, The Wall Street Journal reported that the investment bank is scaling back or restructuring its diversity, equity, and inclusion initiatives in response to internal backlash.

A source familiar with the upcoming layoffs told Bloomberg that cuts are companywide except for its 15,000 financial advisers. Workforce reductions at the 80,000-person bank were implemented before market turmoil sent the Nasdaq 100 Index down 7.3% on the year. 

A spokesperson for the New York-based bank declined to comment on the cuts. However, the source said the reduction is based on “keeping a lid on costs as executives grapple with minimal attrition in their ranks.” 

The source said that some cuts are based on performance, while others result from changes in where MS bases some of its workers. Additionally, some reductions are attributed to increased efficiencies around artificial intelligence and automation within the firm.

At a conference earlier this week, Morgan Stanley Co-President Dan Simkowitz said that merger and acquisition announcements and new equity issuance are “certainly on pause.”

Simkowitz said the firm is “adding real headcount” at senior levels of the investment banking unit ahead of a possible recovery in capital markets. 

In addition to an imminent workforce reduction, a WSJ report states that MS’ DEI obsession is now being “watered down” after internal turmoil, lawsuits, and backlash. 

DEI created a mess at MS. 

More from WSJ:

Today, the bank faces discrimination accusations and lawsuits, including several in recent months, from both white and Black workers, and criticism from staff who say the efforts either fell short or were unduly heavy-handed.

…

The workplace tensions at Morgan Stanley have flared as companies scrambled to respond to a national reckoning over race relations — and then tried to temper the approach once the legal climate shifted.

While outside pressure has been the focus of the growing political and legal war against DEI, employees and executives have also clashed inside offices, as business leaders brought on consultants, training sessions and race-specific hiring targets.

Morgan Stanley is now watering down diversity initiatives it put in place, including after 2020.

Meritocracy > DEI.

Via Middle East Eye

Sudan’s paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) is currently controlling access to a vital ingredient used in Coca-Cola and Pepsi across vast swathes of the country, according to a new report.

Gum arabic, an organic emulsifier derived from the sap of the acacia trees, is a major ingredient in a range of products, including the gigantic soft drink brands as well as soap, medicine, sweets and cosmetics. Around 70 percent of the world’s supply comes from Sudan, where the trees grow in a 200,000 square mile belt across the south of the country that is largely controlled by the RSF, according to Bloomberg.

Hisham Salih Yagoub, whose company Afritec is one of Sudan’s biggest international suppliers, told the news outlet that he regularly pays the RSF $2,500 per truck to allow transport of the product to the country’s ports.

“They stop the trucks and you have to pay for the trucks to move,” he said. “They either steal some of it or they make you pay.”

Since April 2023, Sudan has been embroiled in a brutal civil war between the RSF and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF). The country has fallen into a humanitarian crisis, with 12.5 million Sudanese displaced from their homes, according to UNHCR. Thousands are estimated to have been killed.

The RSF has been accused of widespread sexual assault, looting, torture and the summary execution of civilians, while the SAF has also been censured for indiscriminate bombing campaigns.

According to documents acquired by Bloomberg, the SAF has also introduced a range of fees that amount to roughly $155 per 100kg of gum arabic being sent out of Port Sudan, meaning any transportation of gum arabic out of the country likely involves payment to groups accused of war crimes.

Bloomberg said it did not receive a response to inquires put to Coca-Cola, PepsiCo and Danone over the gum arabic controversy. 

Nestle said it was “committed to sourcing all our commodities in a responsible way, and in line with applicable regulatory requirements,” while Mars said it did it not tolerate bribery or corruption and was “actively engaging with our suppliers regarding the deeply concerning situation in Sudan and we remain prepared to take any appropriate action if we find any violation of our policies.”

Sudan’s gum arabic belt covers hundreds of thousands of square kilometers…

Coca-Cola and Pepsi have recently also faced a widespread boycott in the Middle East over the US role in supporting Israel’s assault on the Gaza Strip, as well as the former’s reported factory in the illegal West Bank settlement of Atarot.

According to market researcher NielsenIQ, western soft drink brands suffered a 7 percent sales decline in the first half of 2024 across the Middle East.

Chinese EVs like Great Wall, BYD, Chery, and SAIC are flooding the streets in places other than the U.S., according to a new report from Bloomberg.

While the U.S., Canada, and the EU impose tariffs to protect domestic automakers, emerging markets are embracing Chinese vehicles, creating fresh competition for global carmakers.

Places like “Bangkok to Johannesburg to Sao Paulo” are being dominated by the new low cost, sleek EVs that China has been churning out en masse over the last half decade. 

Bloomberg writes that China now leads global vehicle exports, shipping 4.9 million passenger cars in 2024—up from less than 1 million in 2020, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers.

“Chinese automakers have pushed into lots of global markets with high quality and competitively priced vehicles,” said Abby Chun Tu of S&P Global Mobility, comparing their strategy to past successes of South Korean and Japanese brands. Unlike their predecessors, they also offer advanced software and feature-rich models, even at lower price points.

Despite concerns in the U.S. and Europe over China’s EV dominance, most Chinese car exports remain gas-powered, as many developing nations lack EV infrastructure.

With a growing foothold, China’s global auto market share could rise from 3% today to 13% by 2030—hitting 39% in Africa and the Middle East, according to AlixPartners.

Ford CEO Jim Farley acknowledged the competitive threat, saying, “In emerging markets like India, especially South America, they’re being dominated by the Chinese.”

Ford has exited Brazil, where BYD took over its former plant, but aims to hold ground in South Africa and Thailand. “We have to think about future-proofing that,” Farley said.

The article concludes, stating GM and Stellantis see Chinese automakers as a threat but partner with them to stay competitive. 

Chinese brands gain ground with marketing and low prices. In Brazil, BYD featured Pelé in ads, and Luiz Palladino compared his Haval H6 EV to BMW, saying, “It has everything I want.”

Tax breaks helped China’s foothold in Brazil, with BYD and Great Wall building plants. “The Chinese found a great opportunity,” said Ricardo Roa of KPMG.

In Thailand, Chinese brands now hold 13.3% of the market and 71% of EV sales. As Japanese automakers retreat, Chinese rivals take over.

At Bangkok’s Motor Expo, Wiyawit Petra, a longtime Toyota and Honda driver, considered a BYD hybrid. “I want to open my heart to something new now,” he said. “It’s also affordable, so it’s worth the risk.”