Authored by Daniel Lacalle,

Inflation is rising, but it has nothing to do with tariffs. It has everything to do with the Fed’s policy and the Treasury’s uncontrolled spending.

The Core PCE Price Index, which excludes food and energy, rose by 0.2% this month and remains stubbornly high at 2.8% annualized. The headline PCE Price Index increased by 0.3%, the first 0.3% monthly increase in eight months. This has pushed the annualized increase to 2.55%, the highest in seven months.

Obviously, this inflation trend has nothing to do with tariffs but with the fact that government spending soared 10% in 2024, and money supply growth is at a two-year-high.

The Federal Reserve created inflation in 2020 when money supply growth rose at its fastest pace in decades to finance the enormous increase in government spending and perpetuated inflation, keeping an ultra-loose policy for two more years. Furthermore, in 2024 the Fed panicked and delayed its balance sheet reduction in June only to cut rates in September. All these measures, designed to hide the increasing unsustainability of government spending, have perpetuated inflation, reaching an accumulative inflation measured by CPI of almost 25% in four years.

The M2 money supply saw an unprecedented increase in 2020, with a year-over-year growth rate hitting over 23% by August 2020. This was the highest growth rate since records began in 1981.

From February 2020 to November 2024, the United States M2 money supply has soared from $15.4 trillion to $21.45 trillion, which is a cumulative growth of about 39.3%.

In the same period, cumulative inflation measured by CPI rose almost 25%, with some essential goods like gas or food rising more than 40%. The entire inflationary spiral is caused by the historic accumulation of newly created money looking to finance the rising excess in government spending, which stood more than $2 trillion above the 2019 level by 2024.

Tariffs may have plenty of consequences, but they do not cause inflation. Inflation is the erosion of the currency’s purchasing power, and it can only occur when money supply growth, almost always driven by much higher spending, exceeds private sector demand. Furthermore, there has never been an instance in history in which the money supply did not soar alongside government spending.

Tariffs may lead to increases in some individual prices if the goods affected are entirely produced abroad and demand is inelastic, but they do not increase aggregate prices, let alone create an annualized and constant increase, as measured by CPI. Only aggressive fiscal and monetary policies cause inflation. Furthermore, if the quantity of money in the system remains unchanged, tariffs would make prices drop because the units of currency available to purchase the rest of the goods and services would be significantly smaller.

Tariffs, like oil prices, may have relevant implications on numerous trade factors, but they do not cause inflation. If the money supply is unchanged and oil prices rise, the rest of the goods and services decline. Same with tariffs. Oil prices and tariffs are inherently deflationary unless newly created currency and money supply growth rise faster. Furthermore, oil and tariffs may have an impact in the short term, but they do not make aggregate prices go up, consolidate the increase, and continue rising, which is what annualized CPI and PCE measure.

Why is this important? Keynesians want to continue imposing inflationism and blaming external factors for the erosion of the purchasing power of the currency.

This week, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) talked about the possible implications of tariffs but refrained from making definitive statements on their immediate impact on interest rates.

Jerome Powell highlighted a “very, very wide range of possibilities” regarding the consequences of tariffs, indicating that the Fed is waiting to see what policies are enacted before assessing their impact on the economy. Powell emphasized that they need to see more data to evaluate how tariffs will affect consumers and the broader economic landscape, according to the FOMC minutes.

Thus, the narrative has already been created. If inflation continues to rise, the Federal Reserve will use the tariff excuse just as it used the “supply chain disruption” and “re-opening” fallacy in the past. However, the reality remains that an abrupt money surge always creates inflation, and the Fed is not fulfilling its mandate.

The excuse has been created. Governments will continue to spend and increase deficits and debt, central banks will continue to print, and they will blame tariffs just as they blamed supply chain disruptions.

The most important objective of Keynesians is to make you think that the consequences of inflation are the causes. Only rising money supply driven by soaring government spending, which makes money velocity increase, creates inflation.

US equity futures tumbled as the market prepares for Trade War 2.0, with both tech and small-caps underperforming as the dollar soared more than 1% pre-mkt, trading near a two year high and the yield curve bear flattens after Trump announced tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China, and warned that European levies are coming. The Canadian dollar fell to its lowest since 2003 and the euro weakened. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are down 1.7%, but off session lows having tumbled as much as 2% earlier; Nasdaq futures slide 1.7% with the Mag7 all broadly lower (GOOGL -1.8%, AMZN -2%, AAPL -1.9%, MSFT -1%, META -2%, NVDA -3% and TSLA -3%). Pre-mkt, Mag7/Semis are providing no safety and Cyclicals ex-Energy are under pressure as the market analyzes whether “Trade War 2.0 ushers the end of US Exceptionalism” according to JPM. The 2Y yield is +7bps pre-mkt as the bond market forecasts an inflationary impulse from the tariffs, indicating the market is not selling off on growth but rather on inflationary fears. Trump is said to have calls scheduled with Canadian and Mexican leaders today but warns that tariffs will be implemented on Tuesday if no deal is achieved; sets EU as the next target. Today’s macro data focus will be on ISM-Mfg, Vehicle Sales, and Construction Spending.

In premarket trading, North American stocks most exposed to tariffs fall after President Trump followed through on pledges to impose tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China. Shares in automakers, chipmakers and energy companies decline (General Motors (GM) -7.3%, Ford Motor (F) -4.2%, Tesla -3%; Nvidia (NVDA) -3%,  Broadcom (AVGO) -3%; Constellation Energy (CEG) -4%, Oklo (OKLO) -8%). Companies exposed to manufacturing or imports from China are also down: (AAPL -1.9%, DELL -3%). Here are some other notable premarket mover:

• Becton Dickinson (BDX) climbs 2% the medical device maker is considering a potential separation of its life sciences segment, which could be valued at about $30 billion, according to people familiar with the matter.
• Aptiv (APTV US) shares drop 4.9% after Raymond James downgraded the auto parts company to market perform from outperform.
• Stratasys (SSYS) rises 10% after Fortissimo Capital agreed to buy 14% of the 3D printing company.
• Prologis (PLD US) shares fall 3.0% after Raymond James downgraded the real estate investment trust to market perform.
• Triumph Group (TGI) jumps 34% after private equity firms Warburg Pincus and Berkshire Partners agreed to take the aircraft parts and services supplier private for about $3 billion, including debt.

The impact of tariffs ricocheted across global markets. It wasn’t just US stocks that got hit: European carmaker shares fell, with Volkswagen AG and Stellantis NV shedding more than 5%. Crypto was also hammered as Ether plunged 11% in a broad move away from risky assets. Meanwhile, oil prices climbed on worries about a disruption to supply.

Trump’s move is the most extensive act of protectionism taken by a US president in almost a century, with knock-on effects on everything from inflation to geopolitics and economic growth. Goldman Sachs strategists said there’s a risk of a 5% slump in US stocks because of the hit to corporate earnings, while RBC estimated the range at 5% to 10%.

“He seems to be like a poker player who’s betting his whole stash on the first hand,” Steven Englander, global head of G-10 FX research at Standard Chartered Plc, told Bloomberg TV on Monday. “The market just wasn’t prepared for it.”

The worry among investors is that US tariffs will force companies to raise prices in response, causing inflation to accelerate and consumers to pull back on spending. An analysis by Bloomberg Economics estimates the tariff impact may knock 1.2% off US economic growth and add 0.7% to the core personal consumption expenditures price index. “We doubt that many companies will be able to avoid the impact of tariffs,” said Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB Ltd. “Their actual implementation and the retaliatory tariffs that followed felt like crossing the Rubicon.”

On the other hand, the market appears confident that the tariffs will be a short-term affair, with Polymarket giving 65% odds that the tariffs against Canada are removed before May.

European stocks also tumbled as investors brace for the region to be the next target of President Trump’s trade tariffs. The Stoxx 600 is down 1.3%, as automobile and technology shares are the worst-performing sectors, while telecommunications and utilities stocks are posting the smallest losses. Here are the most notable movers:

• Atoss Software rises as much as 5.4% after the workforce management software maker was upgraded by analysts at Hauck & Aufhaeuser following its recent results
• Gulf Keystone Petroleum, Genel Energy and DNO are all pushing higher on Monday after Iraq’s parliament passed a long-awaited plan to boost payments to oil companies
• European stocks most exposed to tariffs like automakers and miners decline on Monday after US President Donald Trump followed through on pledges to impose levies on Canada, Mexico and China
• Julius Baer shares fall as much as 12%, the most since November 2023, after the bank reported adjusted pre-tax profit that came in short of expectations and didn’t announce a new share buyback program
• Speedy Hire shares drop as much as 32%, slumping to levels not seen since 2011, after the equipment rental firm warned full-year profitability will be lower than anticipated due to the weaker economic environment and a downturn in performance at its joint venture in Kazakhstan

Earlier in the session, Asian equities fell across the board with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index tumbling as much as 2.8%, its biggest drop since Aug. 5. Some markets saw outsized moves following the Lunar New Year holiday, with Taiwan’s Taiex index briefly down more than 4%. Chinese stocks in Hong Kong trimmed some of their earlier declines, while trading remains shut on the mainland. Trump imposed a blanket 10% levy on China, and 25% duties on both Canada and Mexico. The weekend announcement poured cold water over hopes that there may be negotiations between the US and major economies. In addition to concern over tariffs slowing global and regional economic growth, traders worry the measures will spur inflation in the US, and limit the Federal Reserve’s easing room.

“The Asia weakness might be more of a worry around the US tariffs causing inflation to go up again in US, thus preventing the Fed from cutting rates, which also means dollar strength relative to Asian currencies,” said Xin-Yao Ng, an investment director at abrdn Plc in Singapore.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index climbed 0.9%, paring some of its earlier advance after a report that China has prepared an initial proposal for trade talks with the Trump administration. The yen reversed an earlier fall to trade slightly higher against the greenback. The Mexican peso underperforms with a 2% fall. The South African rand dropped 1.5% after Trump said the US would halt all future funding to the country because of a new law that allows the state to seize private land in the public interest.

In rates, the Treasury curve flattens as shorter-dated US bonds fall on inflation concerns – US two-year yields rise 7 bps. Bunds and gilts rally meanwhile as traders boost their ECB and BOE interest rate-cut bets. German and UK 2-year yields fall 7 bps each.

In energy markets, tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico threaten to disrupt North America’s tightly integrated oil market and push up gasoline prices for American motorists. West Texas Intermediate jumped 2.4% above $74 a barrell. Reflecting expectations that refiners will face higher costs, gasoline futures soared as much as 6.2% in New York. Spot gold is steady near $2,795/oz. Bitcoin falls 2% to below $96,000.

The US economic calendar includes January S&P Global US manufacturing PMI (9:45am), December construction spending and January ISM manufacturing (10am); ahead this week are JOLTs job openings, ADP employment change and January jobs report. Scheduled Fed speakers include Bostic (12:30pm) and Musalem (6:30pm)

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures down 1.5% to 5,978.75
• STOXX Europe 600 down 1.4% to 532.23
• MXAP down 2.4% to 179.77
• MXAPJ down 2.2% to 564.23
• Nikkei down 2.7% to 38,520.09
• Topix down 2.4% to 2,720.39
• Hang Seng Index little changed at 20,217.26
• Shanghai Composite little changed at 3,250.60
• Sensex down 0.4% to 77,166.59
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.8% to 8,379.36
• Kospi down 2.5% to 2,453.95
• German 10Y yield little changed at 2.41%
• Euro down 1.1% to $1.0253
• Brent Futures up 1.0% to $76.44/bbl
• Gold spot up 0.0% to $2,799.47
• US Dollar Index up 0.96% to 109.41

Top Overnight News

• China is preparing a list of concessions to avoid an escalation in Trump’s trade war, including purchasing more American goods, investing more in the US, a commitment to avoid yuan devaluations, curbing fentanyl precursor exports, and agreeing to treat TikTok as a commercial (not a national security) issue. WSJ
• China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI for Jan comes in at 50.1 (down from 50.5 in Dec and below the Street’s 50.6 forecast). RTRS
• BOJ board members expressed concerns at their January meeting about the weakening yen and its impact on inflation, a summary shows. BBG
• Eurozone CPI for Jan runs a bit hot at +2.5% headline (up from +2.4% in Dec and vs. the Street +2.4%) and +2.7% core (flat vs. Dec and vs. the Street +2.6%) (Bloomberg); US home values to see a ~$1.5T drop in value over the next three decades as a result of climate change. WSJ
• Trump ramped up his tariff threats to the European Union while saying he would speak with the leaders of Canada and Mexico, as stock markets sank following a hectic weekend that saw prospects for a trade war turn into reality. Trump says will “definitely” slap tariffs on the EU “very soon.” BBG
• Trump suggested that the UK might escape punitive tariffs, although he said Britain was “way out of line” and that he was considering whether to target its exports. FT
• Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum will announce details of her government’s “Plan B” response to tariffs today. Canada’s two biggest provinces will remove US products from government-run liquor stores. BBG
• House Republican leaders want committees to land deeper spending cuts in their party-line bill to enact President Donald Trump’s domestic agenda, as they scramble to address a rebellion from key Budget Committee members who think Speaker Mike Johnson’s initial plan falls short. Politico
• Elon Musk said his DOGE team is halting some Treasury payments to federal contractors as part of aggressive cuts to US spending. He’s also in the process of shutting down USAID after staff were denied access to its systems. BBG

Trade War News

• White House said US President Trump signed the tariff order effective February 4th which confirms 25% tariffs on all Mexican and Canadian imports to the US with the exception of a 10% tariff on Canadian energy products, while imports from China are subject to an additional 10% tariff on top of existing levies with no exclusions offered. The order stated the new tariffs don’t apply to goods loaded onto vessels or in transit before February 1st and stated the President can remove new Canadian tariffs if enough steps are taken to reduce the health crisis but also included a retaliation clause that calls for further action which would likely be increased tariffs.
• US President Trump said tariffs will definitely happen with the EU, while he added the UK is out of line and the EU is really out of line but also noted that he is getting along well with UK PM Starmer, while he stated there are tremendous deficits with Canada, Mexico, China and the EU. Furthermore, Trump said he will be speaking with Canadian PM Trudeau on Monday morning and will also be speaking with Mexico on Monday.
• Elon Musk’s team got access to the US Treasury Department’s payments system. It was separately reported that Elon Musk said they are in the process of shutting down the United States Agency for International Development and that it is beyond repair: NYT
• US Transport Secretary Duffy said the US pilot messaging system experienced a temporary outage on Sunday.
• Wall Street is concerned about Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s approach to government borrowing. Investors credit a 2023 strategy of relying on short-term Treasurys with stabilising markets, but Bessent has criticised this method amid fears of increased borrowing under Trump’s administration: WSJ
• Russia’s Kremlin, on US President Trump, said talks and meetings are scheduled with Russia, apparently contacts are planned, “we have a planning process”.
• Saudi Arabia could be seen as a possible venue for a Trump-Putin meeting, according to Russian sources: Reuters.
• The US House Budget Committee is unlikely to mark up a budget resolution this week, according to GOP leadership sources and lawmakers: Punchbowl.
• Canadian PM Trudeau said the new US tariffs violate the USMCA trade agreement and Canada will impose 25% tariffs on CAD 155bln of US goods with CAD 30bln in tariffs to take effect on February 4th and the rest starting in 21 days. Furthermore, Trudeau said they are considering several non-tariff measures including those relating to minerals and energy procurement, while he added that Canada and Mexico are working together to face the US tariffs.
• Canadian senior government official said the Canadian tariffs will not apply to goods in transit and that the actions of the US are a violation of the obligations of the free trade agreement, while the official added that Canada’s countermeasures will have an impact on the Canadian economy and the government has a plan to try to offset them.
• Canadian Ambassador said she is hopeful that the Trump tariffs don’t come into effect on Tuesday and that US consumers should know retaliatory tariffs are not actions Canada wants to do.
• Mexican President Sheinbaum ordered the start of a retaliatory tariff plan against the US and stated that tariffs will not fix problems but dialogue will, while it was separately reported that Mexico’s Economy Minister said ‘Plan B’ is underway in response to US tariffs. President Sheinbaum later commented that 25% tariffs will have a great impact on both the US and Mexico’s economies, while she added that they categorically reject the US statement that Mexico has ties to drug cartels and stated the US has done nothing to stop the illegal sale of drugs in its own country.
• China’s Commerce Ministry said China will take necessary countermeasures to new US tariffs and that Fentanyl is America’s problem. Furthermore, it said China will challenge the new US tariffs under WTO and that there are no winners in a trade war, while it urged the US to engage in frank dialogue and strengthen cooperation.
• Goldman Sachs believes US tariffs on Mexico and Canada are to be short-lived.
• JPMorgan said model estimates suggest that impact of a sustained 25% US tariff will be large enough to throw Mexican and Canadian economies into recession.
• China is to renew a pledge not to devalue the yuan to help its exporters and it is to offer to reinstate the ‘Phase One’ deal as part of its opening bid for trade negotiations, while it plans to include an offer to make more investments in the US and is to treat TikTok largely as a commercial matter in negotiations, according to WSJ.
• EU said it rejects US President Trump’s decision to hit Canada, Mexico and China with tariffs and it would respond firmly if the US imposed tariffs on Europe, according to FT.
• Yale’s non-partisan policy research centre Budget Lab preliminary estimates project US PCE prices to increase by 0.76% and household purchasing power to be reduced by an average of USD 1250, while US real GDP is projected to contract by 0.2% in the medium run, as an impact from US President Trump’s tariffs.

Here is a more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks sold off as all focus was on US President Trump’s latest tariff action over the weekend in which he signed a tariff order which confirms 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada (with the exception of 10% on Canadian energy products) and 10% additional tariffs on top of existing levies for China. ASX 200 declined with all sectors suffering firm losses while mixed data did little to spur demand. Nikkei 225 slumped firmly beneath the 39,000 level with Japanese automakers notably spooked by tariff jitters. Hang Seng conformed to the negative mood on return from the Chinese New Year holiday with demand constrained after disappointing Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI and amid the continued absence of mainland participants.

Top Asian News

• BoJ January Meeting Summary of Opinions stated one member said Japan public’s inflation expectations are heightening as inflation exceeds 2% for four straight years and a member said raising rates at this timing would be sufficiently neutral when compared with average market expectations. It was also stated that Japan’s economy is resilient enough to absorb potential downside stress from the new US administration’s policies and that BoJ’s policy flexibility has increased as the Fed is likely to pause on rate hikes. Furthermore, a member said real interest rates remain deeply negative even after a rate hike and need to keep raising rates if the economy and prices are on track

European bourses (Stoxx 600 -1.5%) opened lower across the board following a dire APAC session as risk is hit by US President Trump’s imposition of tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, whilst also keeping the EU in its sight. Broad-based losses are seen across the majors. Sentiment has attempted to improve in today’s session but still reside firmly in the red. European sectors are entirely in the red, with a clear defensive bias; Autos are by far the clear underperformer today, with Tech and Basic Resources following behind – all of which are digesting the Trump tariffs. US equity futures are entirely in the red, with some underperformance in the economy-linked RTY (-2.1%) as traders weigh up the inflationary/economic impact on the US.

Top European News

• EU leaders to meet on Monday talk defence; no specific discussion on US tariffs expected but issue likely to be raised, according to an official cited by CNBC. “There’s a consensus in the European Union that one way to mitigate trade tensions with the US will be by increasing energy purchases.” Source added “there’s a realization that a trade confrontation with the EU is approaching.”
• ECB’s Kazimir said last week’s 25bps rate cut moved the bank closer to its destination but is not there yet. Forecasts, services inflation and wage developments will help navigate what will happen in April and beyond.
• ECB’s Knot expects US tariffs to lead to higher interest rates and a weaker euro, while he said the best response to US tariffs would be to do nothing although he expects retaliation.
• ECB’s Villeroy said US President Trump’s tariffs will increase economic uncertainty, “it is a very worrying development”, “There will likely be further rate cuts”. Tariffs are brutal and will hit the autos sector. Everyone loses in this kind of protectionist trade war. Should not rule out any riposte from EU if Trump does impose tariffs on the bloc.
• German Chancellor Scholz said EU can react with its own tariffs [against the US] but cooperation is more important.
• UK Govt. Spokesperson said the UK and US have a fair and balanced trading relationship which benefits both sides of the Atlantic.

FX

• USD is firmer vs. all peers after US President Trump announced 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada (with the exception of 10% on Canadian energy products) and 10% additional tariffs on top of existing levies for China. The risk-aversion and potential ramifications for Fed policy are acting as the driving force for price action this morning. US ISM Manufacturing is due later.
• EUR/USD has been hit after comments from US President Trump that tariffs will definitely happen with the EU. EU said it rejects US President Trump’s decision to hit Canada, Mexico and China with tariffs and it would respond firmly if the US imposed tariffs on Europe, according to FT. ECB’s Villeroy noted that Trump’s tariffs will increase economic uncertainty and there will likely be further rate cuts”. Headline EZ HICP Y/Y printed just above expectations but had little impact on the Single-currency; currently around 1.0234.
• JPY is marginally firmer vs. the USD on account of its safe-haven appeal. Macro drivers for Japan are lacking and therefore, global risk dynamics are likely to remain a key driver in the near-term. USD/JPY is back above its 50DMA at 154.87 with a current session peak at 155.88.
• GBP is notably weaker vs. the USD but firmer vs. the EUR. US President Trump stated that the UK is also out of line but then suggested he is getting on well with PM Starmer. GBP is seeing shallower losses than some peers on account of its relatively smaller trade deficit.
• Antipodeans are both markedly hit by the global growth impulse from Trump’s trade war as well as suffering from their direct exposure to the Chinese economy. Other macro drivers include mixed Australian data, disappointing Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI and wide expectations for cuts from both the RBA and RBNZ this month.
• The Canadian Dollar and Mexican Peso have both been hit hard by US President Trump’s decision to impose 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada (with the exception of 10% on Canadian energy products). Canadian PM Trudeau said the US tariffs violate the USMCA trade deal. Canada considering non-tariff measures, including minerals & energy procurement.

Fixed Income

• USTs are a little firmer today, with the main focus on US President Trump’s announcement of 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada. Seemingly the impact of inflation/economic headwinds has been outweighed by a flock to quality. The US curve is currently in bear-flattening mode with the 2s10spread narrowing by 6.9bps. The 10yr yield had been as low as 4.496% but has since stabilised around the 4.55% mark. Ahead, US ISM Manufacturing metrics.
• Bunds gapped notably higher at the open with traders wary of the negative growth impulse from the ratcheting up of trade tensions over the weekend. For the EU specifically, US President Trump that tariffs will definitely happen with the EU. ECB’s Villeroy noted that Trump’s tariffs will increase economic uncertainty and there will likely be further rate cut. Headline EZ HICP Y/Y printed just above expectations, but had little impact on Bunds; Mar’25 Bund has been as high as 133.26, stopping shy of the YTD peak at 133.48.
• Gilts are on a firmer footing, in-fitting with Bunds. US President Trump stated that the UK is also out of line but then suggested he is getting on well with PM Starmer. Mar’25 Gilt has hit a fresh YTD peak at 92.94. UK 10yr yield is just about holding above the 4.5% mark.

Commodities

• Choppy trade for crude prices thus far; the complex initially gapped higher when contracts opened, as traders digested a 10% tariff on Canadian energy products. Prices remain firmly in the green but have slipped off best levels, in-fitting with the risk-tone; action which continued into European morning. As it stands, WTI outperforms Brent by circa. USD 0.65/bbl – ING highlights that Canada is a key supplier of crude oil to the US and that many US refineries are configured to run on Canada’s “heavier crude”. WTI currently sits around USD 73.80/bbl within a USD 73.48-75.18/bbl range. OPEC+ JMMC Meeting is due at 13:00 GMT / 08:00 EST, but is unlikely to provide a meaningful recommendation.
• Spot gold is a little lower in today’s session, and with price action fairly choppy; heading into the European morning, the yellow metal was considerably lower, but since pared in the European session, before falling back incrementally into the red. XAU/USD currently off by around USD 2.20/oz, trading in a USD 2772.20-2809.59/oz range.
• Base metals are entirely in the red, in reaction to the Trump tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China; latest tariff offensive and potential retaliation pose a risk to the global economy, while the red metal’s largest buyer also remained absent from the market for the Spring Festival. 3M LME copper resides in a USD 8,922.20-8,992.13/t range this morning – off worst levels seen in APAC hours.
• OPEC+ JMMC meeting to be held at 13:00 GMT / 08:00 EST, according to Kepler’s Bakr.
• Several OPEC+ sources suggested the group will not adjust its output plans for now since the crude market remains fragile and amid waning demand in China, according to Bloomberg sources.
• Gas processing plant in Russia’s Astrakhan region suspended operation before drone attack, according to a Governor.
• Russian oil product exports from Black sea port of Tuapse planned at 0.799mln T in Feb, vs 0.789mln T scheduled for Jan, according to Traders cited by Reuters.
• Iraq’s parliament approved the compensation plan to resolve the Kurdistan oil dispute and seeks to expedite northern exports. It was separately reported that Iraq’s northern Khor Gas field was targeted by a drone attack although no damage was reported and production remained unaffected.
• Alberta’s Premier called for an immediate effort to build oil and gas pipelines to Canada’s coast and stated that Trump’s tariffs will harm people and strain US-Canada ties.
• Goldman Sachs said a potential tariff-driven decline in US natural gas imports from Canada is too small to significantly raise natural gas prices, while medium-run risks to oil prices are skewed downside because persistent broad tariffs would weigh and it expects limited near-term additional effects on global, Canadian, and Mexican crude prices.
• Vitol said it expects global oil demand to peak at almost 110mln BPD at the end of the decade and then retreat to around the current levels of about 105mln BPD in 2040, according to FT.
• JPMorgan said US tariffs keep them near-term bearish on base metals and reinforce their bullish gold view, while it added that LME base metals prices are likely to face stiff near-term bearish pressure on growth concerns, macro risk-off, and USD strength.
• US President Trump’s advisers reportedly concede that US frackers won’t pump much more oil, according to WSJ sources. Trump’s best level to bring down oil prices would might be to persuade OPEC to add more barrels, but Saudi has told former US officials that it is unwilling to augment global oil supplies. Advisers told some oil-and-gas donors they understand the president can’t rely on US frackers to boost production in the short term. On Iranian sanctions, Trump’s team has estimated Iran’s exports could be reduced by 500-750k BPD from sanctions under consideration, sources added. Iranian sanctions discussed include targeting Chinese ports that import Iran’s oil, Iraqi oil deals with Iran and other places used to facilitate the transfer of Iranian oil.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• “Hamas leader told Al-Sharq: According to the ceasefire agreement, negotiations on the second phase are supposed to begin today “, according to Asharq News.
• “Iranian Foreign Ministry: We have not seen any sign of negotiation by the US government”, according to Sky News Arabia.
• Israeli PM Netanyahu spoke on Saturday with US special envoy Steve Witkoff and then travelled to the US on Sunday for a meeting with US President Trump, while Witkoff will speak with Qatar’s PM and Egyptian representatives.
• Israel’s military said its aircraft fired to repel a suspicious vehicle moving towards northern Gaza without passing through the inspection route, in violation of ceasefire terms, while it was separately reported that four Palestinians were wounded in an Israeli strike on a car on Gaza’s coastline.
• ICRC announced 3 hostages were transferred out of Gaza to Israel and 175 Palestinian detainees were transferred from Israeli detention centres to Gaza and the West Bank.
• Qatar’s PM called on Israel and Hamas to immediately begin negotiations on the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire and said that Qatar is prepared to host released Palestinian prisoners if they choose to come but added there is no clear plan for when negotiations towards the second phase will begin.
• US President Trump and Egyptian President Sisi discussed complicated issues and crises in the Middle East during a phone call, as well as discussed the need to strengthen economic and investment relations.
• Hamas political bureau’s deputy head is to visit Moscow on Monday for talks scheduled at the Russian Foreign Ministry, according to RIA.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Ukrainian President Zelensky said a Russian aerial bomb destroyed a boarding school in Russia’s Kursk region even though dozens of civilians were there, while Ukraine’s military later stated that four died and dozens were injured in the Russian strike on the boarding school.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky’s aide said calls by US President Trump’s aide for a truce followed by an election is a failed plan if that is all it consists of.
• Ukrainian Air Force said on Sunday morning that 40 drones were launched by Russia during an overnight strike, while Russia’s Defence Ministry said Russia shot down a HIMARS projectile and 44 Ukrainian drones over the prior 24 hours and that Russia hit military airfields and fuel storage facilities in Ukraine, according to TASS. It was also reported that Russia launched 165 missiles and drones at Ukraine during an attack on Saturday.
• Russian aviation watchdog said it suspended flights at several airports to ensure safety and Russian officials said several Russian regions are under the threat of drone attacks. Furthermore, it was later reported that a Ukrainian drone attack sparked a fire at an oil refinery in Russia’s Volgograd region although the fire has since been contained.

Geopolitics: Other

• North Korea said US Secretary of State Rubio’s comments do not help US interests and it warned that North Korea will respond strongly to hostile US provocations, while it noted that the US new missile defence system plan makes it necessary for North Korea to progress its nuclear deterrence, according to KCNA.
• US President Trump ordered precision military air strikes on the senior ISIS planner and other terrorists he recruited and led in Somalia.
• US President Trump said Venezuela has agreed to receive all illegal migrants captured in the US, while it was later reported that the Trump administration moved to terminate protected status for hundreds of thousands of Venezuelans in the US, according to NYT.
• US President Trump said South Africa is treating certain classes of people very badly and he will be cutting off all future funding to South Africa until a full investigation of this situation has been completed.
• US Secretary of State Rubio called Chinese presence at the Panama Canal unacceptable and told Panamanian leaders that the US would protect its rights under the Panama Canal Treaty if Panama didn’t move to oust Chinese-connected companies near the canal, according to Bloomberg. Furthermore, Panama’s President Mulino said the meeting with Rubio was highly respectful and cordial, while Mulino added sovereignty over the Panama Canal is not up for discussion and that he will not renew the Panama-China agreement over the silk route.
• Taiwan’s President said they welcome healthy exchanges with China and that there should be dialogue between Taiwan and China, with the aim of peace.

Us Event Calendar

• 09:45: Jan. S&P Global US Manufacturing PM, est. 50.1, prior 50.1
• 10:00: Dec. Construction Spending MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0%
• 10:00: Jan. ISM Manufacturing, est. 49.9, prior 49.3, revised 49.2

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Standby for a manic Monday as the world tries to come to terms with the “shock” tariff announcements from Mr Trump’s administration on Saturday night. I say shock but all Trump did was follow through on exactly what he’s been saying he’s going to do since November. The market has refused to take that threat seriously though, completely under-pricing the risks. So, this leaves the weekend news as a severe shock.

You have probably all seen the details by now so we’ll only briefly recap the story and focus on some of the implications. The US announced 25% additional tariffs on imports from Canada (ex-energy imports at 10%) and Mexico, and a 10% additional tariff on China. These will start on February 4th and will be implemented under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), citing a national emergency due to “the extraordinary threat posed by illegal aliens and drugs, including deadly fentanyl”. In response, Canada has retaliated by announcing 25% tariffs on CAD155bn of US goods, of which CAD30bn start on Tuesday and the remainder in three weeks’ time. Mexico’s President said that she’d instructed the Economy Minister to “implement the Plan B” they’d been working on and has signaled that the details of this plan will come today. China have said they would “take necessary countermeasures to defend its rights and interests”. The Commerce Ministry also said they’d file legal proceedings at the WTO.

These three countries make up around 40% of imported US goods, at around $1.35tn. To put this is some perspective, in the first Trump administration, the US targeted around $350bn of Chinese goods. So this is huge versus anything seen for decades with regards global trade and at face value takes us back to the protectionist period between the two world wars in terms of scale of tariffs. The average duty rate on US imports would move from 2.3% to around 10% assuming no trade redirection.

Before we look at the implications, we should say that it’s still possible these tariffs get negotiated away within hours, days or weeks. It’s also possible there are legal challenges which reverse their implementation. It will be interesting how the US courts respond. Trump doubled down on social media yesterday saying “This will be the golden age of America! Will there be some pain? Yes, maybe (and maybe not!). But we will make America great again, and it will all be worth the price that must be paid. We are a country that is now being run with common sense – and the results will be spectacular!!!” Last night, Trump did say that we would hold separate calls with the leaders of both Canada and Mexico on Monday morning, but added that “I don’t expect anything very dramatic” from these. So while we can’t rule out a last-minute deal, there is no sign that he is about to enter into a grand bargain and his “pain” comments are a warning to those who think he’ll backtrack if US equity markets fall. Separately, last night, Trump also renewed the threat of tariffs against the EU, saying they “will definitely happen” and “it’s going to be pretty soon.”

In terms of implications, if implemented and prolonged, Canada and Mexico would likely go into an imminent recession and potentially see a bigger shock than Brexit was for the UK. It should ensure US core PCE hovers around (or above) 3% rather than dip below 2.5%. It would make it more likely that our view that the Fed won’t cut this year proves correct and if growth holds up it could encourage a hike. The US is less exposed to the retaliatory tariffs announced so far in terms of size relative to their economy, but you would still expect several tenths of a percent to be shaved off GDP although how much the raised tariff revenue allows for more tax cuts provides uncertainty. Of course, the dollar should initially be higher.

Although tariffs have not been levied on the EU, this is still a serious blow given what will now probably lay ahead. Aside from direct tariffs, many German automakers serve the US market via Mexico, where they produce final and/or intermediate goods. If the EU has to endure 10% tariffs, our economists’ analysis has previously suggested it would be worth 0.5-0.9% off GDP all other things being equal. We have budgeted 0.5pp in our current assumptions. The weekend news does makes it more likely our 1.5% terminal rate call on ECB rates by December will materialise. Markets have been hovering comfortably above 2% this year.

In terms of the reaction of markets in Asia, Taiwan’s Taiex (-3.80%) is the biggest underperformer after falling -4.4% at the open, led by a plunge in semiconductor heavyweight TSMC. Elsewhere, the KOSPI (-3.12%) is also tumbling with the Nikkei (-2.42%), the S&P/ASX 200 (-1.83%) and the Hang Seng (-1.25%) also seeing sharp losses in early trade. Meanwhile, Chinese markets remain closed for the Lunar New year holiday and are going to reopen on Wednesday.

US and European equity futures are lower with those on the S&P 500 -2.04%. Stoxx 50 and DAX futures are -2.78% and -2.45% lower as I type. 2yr Treasuries are +4.1bps higher at 4.24% while yields on 10yr USTs are -3.2bps lower trading at 4.51%. In terms of market pricing, money markets have reduced the amount of Fed rate cuts priced by the December meeting by -4.7bps to 42bps.

In FX markets, the Canadian dollar is -1.50% lower, at 1.4762 against the dollar, its lowest since 2003 while the Mexican peso (-2.77%) is also weakening, trading at 21.27 against the dollar, touching its lowest since March 2022.

Early morning data showed that China’s factory activity grew at a slower pace in January amid US tariff fears. The Caixin manufacturing PMI grew 50.1 in January (v/s 50.6 expected) down from 50.5. The Caixin data comes just a week after the official PMI data, which showed manufacturing sector activity unexpectedly shrinking in January.

A preview of the week ahead feels a little parochial now given the weekend news but we’ll plough ahead. In the US, we have the jobs report on Friday, and the ISM indices (today and Wednesday) leading the way. Elsewhere, the focus will be on the BoE decision in the UK (Thursday) and Alphabet (Tuesday) and Amazon (Thursday) earnings as part of 124 S&P 500 and 77 Stoxx 600 companies reporting.

Looking first at payrolls, our economists look for a moderation in the headline (175k vs. +256k previously) and private (150k vs. +223k) release but with higher uncertainty than usual around this. Firstly, the LA wildfires occurred during the survey week, which our economists estimate could reduce payrolls by -20k based on historical comparisons. Secondly, January’s gains have been large over the last two years with the low layoff rates perhaps colliding with aggressively seasonal adjustments, although it could have been warm weather that was not prevalent this January. Thirdly, there are BLS benchmark revisions to deal with after last August’s preliminary estimates. This could also influence the unemployment rate and make the data discreet from the December release which would now have a different population control to January’s with the new revisions.
Staying in the US, other notable US data includes the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment on Friday (DB forecast 73.1 vs 71.1) including the inflation expectations series which has seen some extreme partisan differences in expectations since the election. See my CoTD here on this for a fascinating chart. There will also be the US Treasury borrowing estimates (today) and the quarterly refunding announcement (Wednesday) with our strategists’ preview of this here. There are also lots of Fed speakers this week and this will give them their first chance to opine on possible policy implications of the Trump tariff news. We have a selection of these highlighted in the day-by-day week ahead calendar at the end.

For the Bank of England, our UK economist expects the MPC to deliver its third rate cut of the cycle, taking Bank Rate to 4.5% (75bps below its peak) with a 8-1 vote tally. There will also be new economic projections from the MPC as well as a supply projections update from the Bank. See more in our economist’s preview here. We’ll also see January CPI for the Eurozone today with the regional numbers already out. In China, notable releases feature the Caixin PMIs (services on Wednesday after manufacturing earlier today) after the official gauges released last week came in below forecasts. Remember China is on holiday until Wednesday.

Looking back at last week now, assuming you’re still here after a lengthy edition this morning. It was a week bookended by equity sell-offs, with a surprisingly blissful calm in-between. The first came with major US tech sell-off on Monday, as the release of DeepSeek’s new AI model led to major questions about their valuations. And while US equities rebounded from that, the S&P 500 then fell by more than 1% in the latter part of Friday’s session after comments from the White House press secretary and then Trump himself confirming the February 1st tariff plans that we heard more about on Saturday. Ultimately, the S&P 500 ended the week down -1.00% (-0.50% Friday). Tech stocks were overall underperformers, with the NASDAQ down -1.64% over the week (-0.28% Friday) as some of the most affected stocks struggled to recover, with Nvidia’s share price down -15.81% (-3.67% Friday). But the equity softness broadened on the tariff news, with the equal-weighted S&P 500 falling -0.77% on Friday (and -0.54% over the week). By contrast, European markets, which closed before the headlines from the White House, saw a stronger performance, with the STOXX 600 up +1.78% (+0.13% Friday) to reach a new record high, in what also marked its 6th consecutive weekly gain.

Meanwhile, sovereign bonds rallied, with the 10yr Treasury yield falling -8.1bps over the week to 4.54% despite a +2.4bp increase on Friday on the tariff headlines. The bulk of the decline took place on Monday, as investors priced in more Fed rate cuts amidst the sharp equity decline. Yields also declined in Europe, with 10yr bund yields down -11.0bps to 2.46%. This mostly took place towards the end of the week, including -5.9bps on Friday, following growth and inflation data that was softer than expected. In particular, the Euro Area economy was stagnant in Q4, contrary to expectations for +0.1% growth. Then on Friday, France’s flash CPI prints for January surprised on the downside, with EU-harmonised CPI at +1.8% (vs. +1.9% expected), while Germany’s was in line with expectations at +2.8%.

Elsewhere in markets, gold prices closed at a record high of $2,798/oz, having risen +1.00% last week (+0.10% Friday) in their 5th consecutive weekly gain. But several other commodities lost ground, with Brent crude oil down -2.22% (-0.14% Friday) to $76.76/bbl, whilst copper fell -0.97% (-0.66% Friday). In the meantime, Euro IG credit spreads closed at their tightest in three years, at 91bps. However, US credit spreads widened, with IG spreads up +1bps, and HY spreads up +5bps.

Authored by Jacob Burg via The Epoch Times,

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Feb. 2 that he plans to discuss several topics with U.S. President Donald Trump this week, including “victory over Hamas,” expanding diplomatic relations with Arab countries, and countering Iran.

When Netanyahu visits Trump at the White House on Feb. 4, it will be the president’s first meeting with a foreign leader since assuming office for the second time. Meanwhile, U.S. and Arab mediators are working toward the next phase of a fragile cease-fire deal to end fighting in the Gaza Strip and return dozens of captive hostages.

Hamas has refused to release additional hostages in the deal’s second stage without an end to the war and Israel’s withdrawal from Gaza, where the Islamic terrorist group resumed control.

However, Netanyahu has been under pressure from governing partners to continue the war with Hamas after the cease-fire’s first phase ends in March. The prime minister has said that Israel remains committed to defeating Hamas and retrieving the remaining hostages captured in the Oct. 7, 2023, terrorist attack that sparked the war.

However, it is uncertain where Trump stands on the issue. While he has remained a steady supporter of Israel, he has also vowed to end wars in the Middle East while taking credit for the cease-fire deal, which put an end to the fighting and brokered the release of 18 hostages who Hamas had imprisoned for more than 15 months, as well as hundreds of Palestinians held in Israeli prisons.

Before his Feb. 2 departure, Netanyahu said in a statement that he and Trump will discuss “victory over Hamas, achieving the release of all [Israeli] hostages and dealing with the Iranian terror axis in all its components,” describing Iran’s alliances with terrorist groups in the Middle East, including Hamas.

By working together, the United States and Israel can “strengthen security, broaden the circle of peace, and achieve a remarkable era of peace through strength,” the prime minister added.

Hamas triggered the war with Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, when its terrorists stormed into southern Israel and massacred more than 1,200 people, mostly civilians, while capturing roughly 250 hostages. More than 100 hostages were released during a November 2023 week-long cease-fire, and eight were rescued alive. Israeli forces also recovered dozens of bodies of hostages who had perished.

Local Hamas-controlled health authorities in Gaza claim that Israel’s air and ground war with Hamas has led to the deaths of more than 47,000 Palestinians, more than half of whom were women and children, but they have not said how many were militants. After more than a year of fighting, large portions of Gaza are in ruins, and roughly 90 percent of its 2.3 million people have been displaced.

During the first phase of the cease-fire deal, Hamas is supposed to release a total of 23 hostages, eight of whom have perished, in exchange for nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners held by Israel. Israel’s forces have begun pulling out of most areas in Gaza and have allowed hundreds of thousands of Palestinians to return to the region’s northern area.

Negotiations for the cease-fire deal’s second phase are set to begin on Feb. 3; in this phase, the war would end and the remaining 60 or so hostages would also be released. However, that war could resume in March if the United States, Qatar, and Egypt cannot bring about an agreement between Israel and Hamas.

Steve Witkoff, Trump’s Mideast envoy, joined in the negotiations last month and helped with the agreement. Witkoff met with Netanyahu last week and is expected to begin discussing the cease-fire deal’s second phase in Washington on Feb. 3.

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Trump, following his efforts to reach agreements between Israel and four Arab nations during his first administration, is potentially seeking a much broader deal under which Israel would ally with Saudi Arabia.

However, Saudi Arabia has resisted similar attempts from the Biden administration and has said it would not accept that kind of deal unless the war ends and Palestinians can have a state in Gaza, the West Bank, and East Jerusalem, territories that Israel has controlled since the 1967 Mideast war.

Yet Netanyahu’s government is opposed to Palestinian statehood, while Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has threatened to leave Israel’s governing coalition if the nation does not resume the war in March. If that happens, early elections could see Netanyahu voted out of office.

Via The Cradle

The self-appointed transitional government in Syria is undertaking sweeping internal reforms, including privatizing state-run enterprises and laying off a third of the public sector, as authorities say they are shifting to “a competitive free-market economy.”

In an interview with Reuters, ex-officials of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) who are serving as cabinet ministers for transitional President Ahmad al-Sharaa – former ISIS and Al-Qaeda commander Abu Mohammad al-Julani – say they have a “wide scope” of plans to shrink the state, including removing thousands of “ghost employees.”

“The goal is to balance private sector growth with support for the most vulnerable,” interim Minister of Finance Basil Abdel Hanan told the British outlet.

Hanan previously served as economy minister in Idlib’s HTS-led administration. During this time, the group financed its operations by imposing high taxes on citizens, including taxes on humanitarian aid delivered by the UN. Reports from Arabic media in 2022 disclosed that HTS authorities funneled hundreds of millions of dollars into Turkiye by confiscating humanitarian aid shipments and subsequently selling them on the black market.

The Syrian officials also told Reuters that they want Syrian factories to “serve as a launchpad” for global exports.

Nonetheless, discontent is growing throughout Syria due to the layoffs, despite the assurances from western-backed officials. “My salary helps me manage basic needs, like bread and yogurt, to sustain the household. If this decision goes through, it will increase unemployment across society,” stated Adham Abu al-Alaya, one of the many public sector workers currently on a three-month paid leave while their job status is evaluated.

The reforms also come as the country is gripped by a wave of sectarian killings and executions carried out by armed groups under the command of the transitional government’s Military Operations Department.

“[The killings are] normal and may continue for two or three years,” Sharaa said behind closed doors, according to Syrian sources who spoke with The Cradle.

On Wednesday, the Military Operations Department dissolved Syria’s constitution, the People’s Assembly, the national army, security services, and all armed factions—including HTS—and named Sharaa president during a “transitional phase.”

CIA doc: “US interests would be best served by a Sunni regime controlled by business-oriented moderates.”

CIA plan to overthrow Syria by provoking sectarian tensions (1986)

Full doc (PDF): https://t.co/dMpgxpwKtI

More: https://t.co/BycLjXVvBT pic.twitter.com/UAApoR1mAf

— Defend Assange Campaign (@DefendAssange) February 22, 2017

Sharaa and his acolytes are expected to hand over power to a new government in March, but it is unclear how the transition will happen. Moreover, in an interview with Al Arabiya last month, Sharaa said that holding elections could take up to four years, and rewriting the country’s constitution could take three.

Despite the uncertainty, western nations are moving ahead at full steam to lift economic sanctions that have devastated Syria’s economy for over a decade. “We are closely monitoring the situation, and we stand ready to support the international community’s efforts to assist serious reconstruction as needed and when conditions allow,” the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said last month, just days after the Turkish-backed coup ousted president Bashar al-Assad.

President Trump has been insistent on his calls for Egypt and Jordan to take in hundreds of thousands of Palestinians from the Gaza Strip, after initial controversial comments last month saying his plan is to ‘clean out the whole thing’ as it’s already been destroyed, and that Gazans can live their lives in peace elsewhere.

Jordan and Egypt had quickly rejected the statements, but Trump has still doubled and tripled down. In follow-up statements made to reporters last week, the president said, “You’re talking about a million and a half people, and we just clean out that whole thing.”

He continued: “I don’t know, something has to happen, but it’s literally a demolition site right now. Almost everything’s demolished, and people are dying there, so I’d rather get involved with some of the Arab nations and build housing in a different location where I think they could maybe live in peace for a change.”

On Sunday, Jordan’s government announced that King Abdullah will travel to Washington to meet with Trump at the White House on February 11.

“King Abdullah II will meet with US President Donald Trump at the White House on Tuesday, February 11, 2025, after His Majesty received an invitation letter from President Trump last week,” the king’s palace said in a statement.

Abdullah is about to feel the pressure from Trump first-hand over the Gaza crisis. But Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi said days ago that Jordan’s stance remains “firm and unwavering” in rejecting any systematic displacement of Palestinians from Gaza.

Trump may use the outsized US assistance provided to pressure their leaders to agree to his plan at least on some level. But the reality is that this is has been an ultra politically sensitive issue for over half-a-century, with wars having been fought related to it.

Past historic waves of Palestinian refugees and armed groups flooding nearby Arab countries have literally erupted in wars and street battles, which especially Lebanon can attest to. Jordan has also seen its country destabilized at times – Black September being a prime case in point.

There’s also the logistics – with Palestinians now rushing back to their largely destroyed communities in northern Gaza, they are defiantly telling the world they don’t plan to leave their homeland. The Gaza ceasefire would likely collapse if Palestinians were suddenly pushed out in large waves into Egypt and Jordan.

Palestinians have by and large “voted with their feet” on the question of return to their destroyed communities as the ceasefire holds…

THE RETURN TO THE NORTH OF GAZA pic.twitter.com/qg5ddiqAre

— Muhammad Smiry 🇵🇸 (@MuhammadSmiry) January 27, 2025

Jordan already hosts several million Palestinians, based on past historic large refugee waves, and the result of mass displacement due to various Arab-Israeli wars. If Jordan goes along with Trump’s plan, there would be the likelihood of some kind of armed Palestinian uprising within Jordan itself. Such a plan would be nearly impossible to execute or at least be deeply complicated from the start.

Via Remix News,

The Ukrainian army is struggling with mass desertions as soldiers grow tired of the war.

According to The Guardian, the exact number of desertions is a secret, but official authorities admit that the number is large.

One soldier told the British newspaper that at the beginning of the Russian invasion, he volunteered for the army and “was ready to give his life,” but over time his attitude changed.

The man, codename “Viktor,” recalled how the Russians were smashing Ukrainian military positions to smithereens, and commanders were issuing unrealistic orders. While defending one of the buildings, he was wounded. He was given only a pain-killing injection and then ordered to return to the fight.

“I realized that I’m nobody. Just a number,” he said. In May of this year, he left his post to undergo treatment and never returned.

“Everyone is tired. The mood has changed. People used to hug soldiers in the streets. Now, they are afraid of being drafted,” he says.

Another soldier said he took part in offensive operations in the south of Mykolaiv and Kherson regions. In the winter of 2022, he quarreled with his new commander, unsuccessfully requested a transfer, and was later wounded.

“I reached a boiling point. And I decided to go where no one would find me,” he says.

He added that he would take up arms again if the Russians entered his city or if the Ukrainian army was truly reformed along NATO lines, with the best generals. Asked if he was happy, he replied: “I’m alive. The longer the war lasts, the more people like me there will be.”

A complex problem

Olga Reshetylova, Ukraine’s commissioner for the protection of soldiers’ rights, said she understands why some people behave this way.

“It’s natural when a major war has been going on for three years. People are exhausted. They want to see their families. Their children are growing up without them. Relationships are falling apart. Wives and husbands can’t wait forever. They feel lonely,” he notes.

According to her, many soldiers have unstable mental health, and a minor conflict with a senior officer can “provoke” them to flee the unit.

“It’s a complex and confusing problem. We can’t solve it with a criminal penalty. If the choice is between death and prison, of course at that point you choose the latter,” she said.

Andriy Hrebenyuk, staff sergeant of an infantry battalion fighting in the Donetsk regional city of Veliky Novosilka, said that soldiers escape from their units “quite often.”

“Some come back. Some don’t… It’s not so much about injuries as it is about morale. They need a psychological reset. They go to their families and reappear a few months later,” he said.

He acknowledged a severe shortage of infantry but said they had enough artillery and drones. Nevertheless, he said there are hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers holding their positions.

Read more here…

Authored by Ginger Taylor via The Brownstone Institute,

Meet the original “Conspiracy Theorists,” Ronald Reagan and the members of the 99th Congress, who, in 1986, passed into law the “medical misinformation” that vaccines were “unavoidably unsafe” and potentially caused autism…

Last week Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) sent Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., President Trump’s nominee for Secretary of Health and Human Services, a scathing letter accusing him of, among other things, “dangerous views on vaccine safety” and “false hysteria that vaccines cause autism.”

The letter included 175 questions that she said he should be prepared to answer at his Senate confirmation hearings.

But in her letter, she exposes her own ignorance of federal vaccine policy and the laws passed by her own legislative branch. 

In 1986 the House of Representatives passed the National Childhood Vaccine Injury Act (42 U.S.C. §§ 300aa-1 to 300aa-34) by a voice vote.

Senator Warren should know that her current Senate Minority Leader Senator Chuck Schumer (D-NY) was, at the time, a member of the House and should presumably know that the bill that was passed to give vaccine makers liability protection from civil claims when a child was killed or seriously injured by a vaccine, and placed all vaccines administered to children in the legal category of “unavoidably unsafe” medical products, which means a product that cannot be made safe for its intended use.

In 2018, Mary Holland, JD, then the Director of the Graduate Legal studies program at New York University School of Law, and now Chief Executive Officer of Children’s Health Defense, a non-profit organization founded by Kennedy, remarked on the legal standing of the safety of vaccines:

The key language about “unavoidable” side effects comes from the National Childhood Vaccine Injury Act, 42 USC 300aa-22, re manufacturer responsibility (see bold text below).

That language was based on language from the Second Restatement of Torts (a legal treatise by tort scholars), adopted by most state courts in the mid-1960’s, that considered all vaccines as “unavoidably unsafe” products. The Restatement opined that such products, “properly prepared, and accompanied by proper directions and warnings, is not defective, nor is it unreasonably dangerous.”

Further the 2011 SCOTUS ruling in the Bruesewitz v. Wyeth case interpreted the highlighted text below from the National Vaccine Injury Act to find that it did not permit design defect litigation – that issue had been unclear since 1986, and different state high courts and federal circuits had decided the issue differently. So, [it] is correct that the US Supreme Court (SCOTUS) never decided that vaccines are “unavoidably unsafe” directly, but it acknowledged that Congress considers them to be so.

Sec. 300aa-22. Standards of responsibility

(a) General rule

Except as provided in subsections (b), (c), and (e) of this section State law shall apply to a civil action brought for damages for a vaccine-related injury or death.

(b) Unavoidable adverse side effects; warnings

(1) No vaccine manufacturer shall be liable in a civil action for damages arising from a vaccine-related injury or death associated with the administration of a vaccine after October 1, 1988, if the injury or death resulted from side effects that were unavoidable even though the vaccine was properly prepared and was accompanied by proper directions and warnings.

(2) For purposes of paragraph (1), a vaccine shall be presumed to be accompanied by proper directions and warnings if the vaccine manufacturer shows that it complied in all material respects with all requirements under the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act. 

See https://www.ageofautism.com/2018/11/the-supreme-court-did-not-deem-vaccines-unavoidably-unsafe-congress-did.html

What few know, even among their own memberships and supporters, is that the following medical authorities consider vaccines unsafe: 

The American Academy of Pediatrics (“AAP”)

The American Medical Association (“AMA”)

The American Academy of Family Physicians (“AAFP”)

The American College of Osteopathic Pediatricians (“ACOP”)

The American College of Preventive Medicine (“ACPM”)

The American Public Health Association (“APHA”)

The Association of State and Territorial Healthcare Officials (“ASTHO“)

The Center for Vaccine Awareness and Research at Texas Children’s Hospital in Houston 

Every Child By Two, Carter/Bumpers Champions for Immunization (“ECBT”)

Immunization Action Coalition (“IAC”) 

Infectious Diseases Society of America (“IDSA”)

The March of Dimes Foundation

Meningitis Angels

The National Association of Pediatric Nurse Practitioners (“NAPNAP”)

The National Foundation for Infectious Diseases 

The National Healthy Mothers, Healthy Babies Coalition

The National Meningitis Association, Inc. (“NMA”)

Parents of Kids with Infectious Diseases (“PKIDs”)

The Pediatric Infectious Diseases Society (“PIDS”)

The Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine (“SAHM”)

The Vaccine Education Center at the Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia (“CHOP”)

When the family of Hannah Bruesewitz, a child injured by Wyeth’s Tri-Immunol DTP vaccine, challenged the 1986 Act in the Supreme Court for the right to sue Wyeth for Hannah’s severely disabling vaccine-adverse event, these organizations filed an amicus brief in support of Wyeth, asking the court to uphold the law that protects vaccine makers from liability for injury or death arising from any vaccine licensed by the FDA and recommended for children by the CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (“ACIP”). They even went as far as to argue against the idea that each vaccine should be individually evaluated for the “unavoidably unsafe” status, stating in their brief

Case-by-case consideration of whether vaccines are unavoidably unsafe, on the other hand, would “undoubtedly increase the costs and risks associated with litigation and would undermine a manufacturer’s efforts to estimate and control costs.”(citing Bruesewitz v. Wyeth Inc., 561 F.3d 233, 249 (3d Cir. 2009). 

– Brief Amici Curiae Of The American Academy Of Pediatrics and 21 Other Physicians and Public Health Organizations In Support Of Respondent [Wyeth LLC], at 25.

The organizations’ position that vaccines are unavoidably unsafe taken before the legislative and judicial branches of the federal government has caused consternation in parents and vaccine safety and choice advocates for decades, because many of these same organizations argue the exact opposite – that vaccines are safe – when they appear before state legislatures in support of school vaccine mandates and in opposition to vaccine exemptions. 

A lobbyist for the pharmaceutical industry may argue over breakfast in Washington, DC that vaccines are “unavoidably unsafe” and then drive to Annapolis at lunchtime and testify that Maryland should remove religious exemptions to vaccines required for school entry because “vaccines are safe.” 

Attempts to have these organizations explain their conflicting positions met with stonewalling.

In 2015, the Maine Chapter of the American Academy of Pediatrics argued for the removal of and/or restrictions to the religious and conscientious objections to mandated childhood vaccines. The Executive Director of the Maine AAP, Dee Kerry deHaas, testified in writing that this should be done because “vaccines are safe,” but when testifying in person, said that vaccines are “mostly safe.” In my response to her, as the then Director of the Maine Coalition for Vaccine Choice, I asked several questions arising from her testimony, including the following questions:

How can the AAP argue that vaccines are “unavoidably unsafe” in the Supreme Court in order to convince the federal government to grant you liability protection from vaccine injury, and then argue that, “vaccines are safe,” and “vaccines are mostly safe,” before this committee in order to convince the State of Maine to mandate that families receive counseling/buy vaccines from you?

Are vaccines, “safe,” “mostly safe,” or “unavoidably unsafe?”

How do such widely contradictory statements engender trust in vaccines and in pediatricians?

Her response to my questions:

Ms. Taylor,

On behalf of the Maine AAP, I acknowledge receipt of your email and list of questions. I understand that our organizations have different perspectives in the vaccine debate. Each perspective has been aired in the legislative hearings and sessions with regard to these vaccine bills in the First Regular Session of the 127th Maine Legislature.

I respectfully decline to respond to your list of proposed questions or to continue the debate with you through electronic correspondence or social media.

Dee deHaas
Executive Director
American Academy of Pediatrics, Maine Chapter

Those advocating under this nonsensical construct quip that vaccines are unsafe, but only in DC. 

Parent of a vaccine-injured son, Kim Spencer of The Thinking Moms’ Revolution, noted of the vaccine industry, “their claim that vaccines are ‘unavoidably unsafe’ won them liability protection, their claim that ‘vaccines are safe’ won them school and work mandates, but their claim that both are true has won them the distrust and contempt of parents.”

Senator Warren also accuses Mr. Kennedy of having, “spread false hysteria that vaccines cause autism.” But Kennedy has only done what Warren’s Congressional colleagues did 20 years before he began in vaccine safety advocacy; promote research into the vaccine-autism link and any link between vaccines and other childhood disorders. 

Congress, while giving liability protection to vaccine makers with the 1986 Act, also ordered HHS to study links between the pertussis vaccine and more than a dozen conditions, including autism: 

SEC. 312. RELATED STUDIES.

(a) REVIEW OF PERTUSSIS VACCINES AND RELATED ILLNESSES AND CONDITIONS.—Not later than 3 years after the effective date of this title, the Secretary of Health and Human Services shall complete a review of all relevant medical and scientific information (including information obtained from the studies required under subsection (e)) on the nature, circumstances, and extent of the relationship, if any, between vaccines containing pertussis (including whole cell, extracts, and specific antigens) and the following illnesses and conditions:

(1) Hemolytic anemia.

(2) Hypsarrhythmia.

(3) Infantile spasms.

(4) Reye’s syndrome.

(5) Peripheral mononeuropathy.

(6) Deaths classified as sudden infant death syndrome.

(7) Aseptic meningitis.

(8) Juvenile diabetes.

(9) Autism.

(10) Learning disabilities.

(11) Hyperactivity.

(12) Such other illnesses and conditions as the Secretary may choose to review or as the Advisory Commission on Childhood Vaccines established under section 2119 of the Public Health Service Act recommends for inclusion in such review. (Ante, p. 3771).

– PUBLIC LAW 99–2660—NOV. 14, 1986 100 STAT. 3755

The pertussis vaccine injury inquiry ordered by law in 1986 was undertaken by the National Institutes of Health, carried out by the Institute of Medicine, published by the National Academy of Sciences in 1991, and edited by, among others, none other than Harvard’s Harvey Fineberg, who chaired the Committee to review the Adverse Consequences of Pertussis and Rubella Vaccines. PubMed (a database maintained by the United States National Library of Medicine at the National Institutes of Health) gave the following summary of the final report, titled Adverse Effects of Pertussis and Rubella

Vaccines: A Report of the Committee to Review the Adverse Consequences of Pertussis and Rubella Vaccines:

Parents have come to depend on vaccines to protect their children from a variety of diseases. Some evidence suggests, however, that vaccination against pertussis (whooping cough) and rubella (German measles) is, in a small number of cases, associated with increased risk of serious illness. This book examines the controversy over the evidence and offers a comprehensively documented assessment of the risk of illness following immunization with vaccines against pertussis and rubella. Based on extensive review of the evidence from epidemiologic studies, case histories, studies in animals, and other sources of information, the book examines: The relation of pertussis vaccines to a number of serious adverse events, including encephalopathy and other central nervous system disorders, sudden infant death syndrome, autism, Guillain-Barre syndrome, learning disabilities, and Reye syndrome. The relation of rubella vaccines to arthritis, various neuropathies, and thrombocytopenic purpura. The volume, which includes a description of the committee’s methods for evaluating evidence and directions for future research, will be important reading for public health officials, pediatricians, researchers, and concerned parents. 

See https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/25121241/ (emphasis added).

The report’s cursory summary on autism was this:

No data were identified that address the question of a relation between vaccination with DPT or its pertussis component and autism. There are no experimental data bearing on a possible biologic mechanism. (p. 152.)

In other words, we don’t know; no one has ever looked.

But since there was no data to prove a link, because there was no data, they decided to reject the hypothesis and conclude:

There is no evidence to indicate a causal relation between DPT vaccine or the pertussis component of DPT vaccine and autism. (Id.)

Today there is a great deal more data than there was in 1991. This report was published before the dramatic rise in autism rates in the 1990s following the rapid expansion of the number of vaccines given to children once the industry had liability protection from vaccine-induced injuries.

Now, more than 200 papers showing multiple vaccine-autism links exist. You can review those papers at https://howdovaccinescauseautism.org/. 

Senator Warren and all those skeptical of Mr. Kennedy’s vaccine critique must understand that he is more informed on vaccine law than the legislators questioning him. The political talking point that Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. is a “conspiracy theorist” if perpetuated, must now extend to the entire Legislative branch of the US Government starting with Democrats like former Congressman Henry Waxman, who wrote and introduced the 1986 National Childhood Vaccine Injury Act.

Senator Warren might also consult with other current members of the US Congress who held seats when the 1986 Act was passed, such as Mitch McConnell (R-KY), Chuck Grassley (R-IA), Steny Hoyer (D-MD), Hal Rogers (R-KY), Ron Wyden (D-OR), Chris Smith (R-NJ, who also sponsored the Combating Autism Act of 2006), and most notably, her own fellow Democratic Senator from Massachusetts, Ed Markey.

Warren, like most politicians and doctors, does not understand that the presumption at the foundation of American vaccine policy, and the landmark law that has underpinned that policy for 39 years, is that vaccines are unavoidably unsafe.

Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. does.

The following is an account from Michael Shane Daughtery, a former SWAT officer who was aggressively pursued by the Biden DOJ for peacefully participating in the Jan 6, 2021 protest.

Daughtery’s story was conveyed by journalist Sarah Fields via X, who writes “Just when you think his story cannot get crazier, it does. His story is one of full-on corruption.“

Click into the post to read via X (and consider subscribing to Fields’ feed), or continue reading below.

🚨The following story was told by Michael Shane Daughtry, a J6 survivor.🚨

I’m going to relay it in the exact same way that he wrote it out. Just when you think his story cannot get crazier, it does. His story is one of full-on corruption, and he exposes names.

Thread starts…

— Sarah Fields (@SarahisCensored) January 25, 2025

My name is Michael Shane Daughtry and this is my January 6th Story.

I was a Police Officer with SWAT and Sniper Certifications, 20+ years Police experience and over a thousand hours of training. I’m also a Master Gunsmith with a Federal Firearms License and a Gunsmithing Business with over 10 years experience.

On January 6th 2021, I traveled to Washington DC with my wife Tammie to watch the Trump Rally. As the rally was completing, the President of the United States told the crowd to go to the West Lawn and “peacefully” protest, which we did. As we arrived at the West Lawn, the police officers removed the barricades and waved us onto the West Lawn. I had video of this but the FBI later raided my home and confiscated this Video. I never went into the Capital Building or damaged any property but I did later observe people causing damage to the Capital Building so I took a few pictures of these people and then returned to my motel room, we returned home the next morning.

On January 16th, I was charged with trespassing on the West Lawn on January 6th even though the President had ask me to go there and the police had moved the barricades and waved me onto the West Lawn.

The FBI contacted me around midnight and asked me to turn myself into the Federal Marshalls at the Federal Courthouse in Macon by 9:00 am the next morning. I voluntarily turned myself into the Federal Marshalls at the Federal Courthouse in Macon Ga. Upon arrival I was advised by Federal Marshalls that Pelham Police Investigator Adam Lamb, Assistant Chief Rod Williams and Chief Mccormick had turned me in to the FBI after finding out I was in DC.

In 2020 I was working as a Police Officer for the Pelham Police Department and also owned a Firearms Gunsmithing Company named “Cazy Coon Armory” My business was named after my pet Raccoon that was named Rocket but we always called him “Crazy Ole Coon”. On November 13th 2020, Pelham Police Department Investigator Adam Lamb had showed up to my home stating Police Cheif McCormack had fired me for having a Logo with a picture of a Racoon on it with the words “Crazy Coon Armory” telling me that the logo had the word “Coon” on it and that made it a Racist Logo. The police department said they didn’t know I had an outside business with that name even though it was on my resume and on my application for employment. I had also worked on several of of the Pelham Police Department weapons including pistols and full auto rifles at Crazy Coon Armory.

The paperwork they asked me to sign stated I was being fired for being a Racist. I refused to sign this separation letter. After I was fired, without even being giving a chance to resign, I decided to expose the Pelham Police Department and it’s very corrupt Chief for several of the crimes they had committed and were committing including insurance fraud, illegal gambling and cover ups. I was posting this corruption on my Facebook Page and the City of Pelhams Facebook Page every night which made the Police very angery and this was the reason for turning me into the FBI so they could silence me.

After the Marshalls read me this affidavit, I was put into a jail cell for several hours before being brought before a Federal Magistrate Judge. Even though I was a Law Enforcement Officer with no other criminal record, I was placed in handcuffs, leg irons and belly chains and was advised not to speak. And even though I’m a certified Law Enforcement Officer, have never been arrested or charged with any other crime in my life and had gotten up before daylight and driven over 100 miles to turn myself in, the judge advised me that I was a flight risk and ordered me to wear an ankle monitor, be place under House Arrest, placed on Pre Trial Probation, forced to post $25,000 bond and was placed on Tap 4 internet restrictions saying I couldn’t use any computers our internet. At that time I was not allowed to make a plea and was not allowed to plea until over 18 months later.

I was appointed a public defender without even being asked. I had a very experienced federal attorney that was willing to take my case for free but I was advised that I could not have an attorney of my choosing and could only hire an attorney from the Washington DC District that was certified to take cases in federal court in DC. The only attorney I could find meeting these requirements wanted over $100,000 plus $10,000 per hearing which I had 5, which would have been a total of $150,000.00 and my case isn’t even over yet.

Upon my release from jail late on January 16th, I returned home where my home and firearms business was immediately raided by Federal Agents that were waiting at my property. Numerous Federal Agents searched my home and property without a warrant and all my weapons and ammo were confiscated from my home and from my licensed firearms business, all for a crime that I would not lose my 2nd ammendment rights even if I were convicted.

I was forced, with threat of prison, to give Federal Agents:

*My Email Passwords and User Info with written permission to access these accounts.
*My Bank Account Passwords
*My Bank Account Numbers with written permission to access these accounts.
*My Safe Deposit Box Info with written permission to search this box
*All my Social Media User Names and Passwords with written permission to access accounts.
*I was not allowed to change any password or information without permission from the Federal Government.
*I’m not allowed to take out any new lines of credit without prior Government approval.
*I was forced to swear under oath that I did not have any money, firearms or other items buried anywhere or have any storage units.
*I was forced to swear under oath that I did not have any photographs or videos hidden or buried.
*I Was not allowed to possess any phone, camera or recording devices other than the one phone I was allowed by probation to have and the FBI took that phone the next day and kept it for weeks.
*I was forced, with threat of prison, to fill out a financial statement listing:
*My Checking account balances and passwords
*My Savings account balance and passwords
*Credit Card Balance, and account information and password.
*My vehicle loan information and value
*My Vehicle Tag #, Year, Make & Model
*My home loan information and home and property value.
*The amount of cash on hand.
*The value of my clothes.
*The value of my home furnishings.
*Names, Addresses, Birthdays and Social Security Numbers of all my family members.
*Names, phone numbers and Addresses of my friends.
*Names, Addresses and Birthdays of any Ex Wives and Children.

Early the next morning Federal agents confiscated all my FFL files including my FFL Log Book and 4473 files. Later that day, my home was raided again by Federal Agents who confiscated my phone and searched all my computers and electronic devices. My phone was not returned for 2 weeks. I was under court order to not use any other phone or computer so I was without any communication with friends, family or my attorneys for two weeks. This also gave the Federal Government access to all my email and text message communications between my attorney and myself.

I was then forced to pay for home phone service and to pay for phone monitoring services and monthly fees for my ankle monitor.

Approximately a year later my home was again searched without a warrant and without any explanation and I was threated with a probation condition violation if I complained about the searches of my property and that a probation violation would have a 17 year felony sentence.

Three weeks later, my home was again raided and all my electronic devices including my phone, computer, thumb drives, hard drives and memory cards were searched then confiscated. My desktop computer was confiscated without explanation and Federal Agents said they didn’t know when my computer would be returned. This computer contained all the files needed to file my taxes that month, all my social security files I needed to file for my retirement benefits and all my private correspondence between my attorneys. This computer also contained all the software needed to run my business. My computer and phone were not returned for two weeks. When I received my phone back I noticed that all my pictures and videos that I had taken January 6th were missing including the video evidence I had of the Capital Police removing barriers and waving me onto the West Lawn of the Capital that I was charged with trespassing on. I also noticed my FFL Digital Logbook had been removed from my computer and my FFL Logbook backup files had been removed from my Google Drive Account that I had been forced to give the login information. Federal Agents had already taken my hardcopy FFL Logbook and 4473 files in a previous search of my firearms business so they now had all my FFL Files not even leaving me a copy.

Even though I’ve only been charged with a non violent, misdemeanor crime, I’ve been on house arrest for almost two years for a crime that carries a maximum punishment of less than a year. I have not been allowed to plea in this case.

When I asked about my 6th Amendment right to a speedy trial, I was advised by Federal Court Judge Randolph D. Moss that the Sixth Amendment had been suspended due to Covid-19 and the large number of arrest made from the January 6th incident. The Sixth Amendment also gives me the right to a Fair Trial, does this mean I didn’t have the right to a fair trail either? I’m not sure how a Federal Court Judge can legally suspend one of the Bill of Rights.

In June 2022, I was told by prosecutors that I could plea guilty to Trespassing on the Grass or face going to court in Washington DC on several other (made up) felony charges that they knew I had not committed. So because I had no chance of a fair trail and facing several false charges, I was forced to plead guilty to Trespassing on the Restricted West Lawn. My plea agreement stated the maximum amount of probation I could receive would be one year but for this non violent misdemeanor crime, I was sentenced to:

1: Two additional months of House Arrest with Location Monitoring for a total of 18 months.

2: Three additional years of Supervised Federal Probation with travel restrictions for a total of 4 years and 8 months of Supervised Federal Probation even though the plea agreement I had signed stated a maximum of 1 year probation.

3: Firearm Confiscation and Restrictions in clear violation of my 2nd amendment rights.

4: Mandatory random drug testing even though I have no drug history. I have passed all these tests.

5: Mandatory mental health evaluation, even though I have no mental health history. I passed this test.

6: $525.00 in restitution for damage to the Capital Building even though I never entered or even touched the Capital Building. I paid this fine.

7: 60 hours of community service. I completed all the community service.

After my sentencing, my home was again searched by a Federal Probation Agent who searched backpacks, closed closets, closed drawers, including my girlfriends underwear drawers even though they had a court order advising that Probation Agents could only take illegal items that are “In Plain Sight”.

My home has now been searched 7 times in 4 years. It’s been searched by the FBI, the Federal Marshalls, the DOJ, and Federal Probation several times. Everyone always come wearing SWAT vests and heavily armed even though the only crime I’ve ever been accused of is illegally walking on the grass.

The government then, using a fake name and phone number, attempted to send firearms to my FFL business through www.guns. on two different occasions in one week. I recognized this persons voice as Assistant U.S. Attorney Graciela Rodriguez Lindberg. Another person then, using another fake name and number called asking if they could bring a firearm to my business for an appraisal. I recognized this person’s voice as my probation officer even though he was giving me another name. I told the person that I could not look at the gun and advised him that my business was closed. I also lied and told this person that I was out of state at the time so they would leave me alone. I’m on travel restrictions and can’t go out of state so my probation officer almost immediately called and asked my location and when I told him I was home, a person stating he had just spoken to to me about the gun appraisal arrived at my home even though I had refused to look at the gun and had told him I was out of state. This person had a different voice, was extremely pushy and would not take no for an answer even when I told him several more times that I couldn’t look at his firearm. This person then opened his vehicle trunk stating he was going show the gun to me anyway. At this time I drove away on my off road buggy leaving him at my home. When I later returned home this person was gone.

I was then contacted by Police Officer Safety & Training Officials stating my law enforcement certification is being revoked for not reporting my arrest to them even though the federal government had taken my phones, computers, I had federal imposed internet restrictions and was on house arrest with no way to contact POST. Also the Federal Agents who confiscated my phones and computers advised me they would contact P.O.S.T. for me because of all my communication restrictions.

Now I’ve been contacted by the Department of Justice stating they were processing my request for a refund on my FFL renewal even though I haven’t requested a refund. The D.O.J. then contacted me by phone and stated my Federal Firearms License is being revoked even though I haven’t committed any crime that would prevent me from possessing a firearm or FFL.

Today I was contacted by my probation officer stating the ATF had contacted him stating that the ATF had requested me to send my FFL files to the ATF and that I had not responded to their request. I hadn’t received any requests from the ATF and can’t understand why they contacted my probation officer. The ATF has my phone number, Email Address, Mailing Address, and Physical Address that’s required for my FFL, I’m very easy to contact. Even though the ATF field officer is required to do regular inspections of my FFL Business, I haven’t be contacted by the field officer since I was arrested three years ago and the only correspondence I’ve had with the ATF was a letter in February 2023 stating I owed them $90 for my FFL renewal. I sent this letter back with a check which they cashed.

Today the ATF Agent contacted me stating my FFL renewal was denied because I failed a background check and stated I was now a convicted felon and could never own a firearm again. After notifying my attorney, the agent called back the next day stating that the FBI had “accidentally mis-coded” my case into the computer and I was not a felon or restricted person but they refused to give my FFL back even though they now had no reason to deny me. The ATF advised me that I was required by law the send them all my FFL Files. I advised the agent that all my FFL Files had been confiscated the day after my arrest.

Now I’ve been contacted by an ATF Agent who stated he couldn’t find any agency that would admit taking my files and then threatened me several times with felony charges for Retention of Files for not returning 4473 files that the government had already confiscated 3 years previous. I advised the ATF that my files had been confiscated previously by two unknown government agents who took my files and left without identifying themselves or giving me any paperwork. The ATF Agent called me a liar several times and every time he called me a liar, I hung up on him. I advised the agent that I would try to find a backup copy of my digital log book somewhere but I was going out of state to take my wife to court as a witness in an unrelated case for about a week and that I had court approval for this trip. A few days later I traveled to court about 5 hours away in Tuscaloosa Alabama and asked my neighbor, who is a Newton Georgia Police Officer, to watch my property and feed our animals until we returned home. On the third day out of state, I received a notification from my security system stating my power had been off but was back on. I was told by authorities that the power had went out for about 30 minutes in the entire city of Newton for an unknown reason. I looked at my security cameras to check on my home and animals and noticed a package holding my storm door partially open and it had been placed there while the power and my cameras were out. I asked the officer to check the package and asked if he would make sure someone hadn’t mailed a firearm to my home FFL for repair because I’m restricted from possessing firearms. The officer stated that the box didn’t have a shipping label and appeared to contain FFL files and folders. It appears that the Federal Agents (DOJ, I believe) who illegally took my files got scared of all the inquiries and returned my files. The only markings on this box was my federal case number. The Officer took the FFL files into evidence, put them into the evidence room at Newton Police Department and contacted the ATF Agent. The next day the officer called me to say he had notified the ATF about recovering the files and that the ATF Agent was going to recover the files from the police department. The ATF continued to threaten me with felony charges of Retention of Files even after the files were recovered by the ATF Agent.

I’ve contacted my court appointed attorney’s office 6 times over the past year advising them that I needed to speak with my attorney with no response other than the secretary advising me that the attorney is very busy.

It’s now September 2024 and my home has again been searched by the Federal Government who again found nothing illegal in my home.

On January 30th 2024, I contacted my attorney’s office and asked for a transcript of my motion for a speedy trial. During this previous hearing, I was advised that I didn’t have the right to a fair and speedy trial because the 6th Amendment had been suspended by the Federal Court because of Covid and the large number of arrest during January 6th. My attorney’s secretary told me that there was no transcript because the judge said there was no court reporter during this hearing and the video of the proceedings are not available to the public. I was also warned at the beginning of that Speedy Trial hearing that it was a Federal Felony for me to record my own hearing.

This is the type of government corruption that all January 6th defendants have faced and if they can do this to me then they can do it to you one day also. This is just 1 of over 1500 similar stories with many of them much, much worst than mine.

January 20th 2025

President Donald Trump issued Me and 1500 other January 6th defendants a Full Presidential Pardon.

Please share this story to everyone you know.

Authored by ‘sundance’ via TheConservativeTreehouse.com,

Remember when President Trump established the “External Revenue Service?” … It’s all connected and sequential…

Almost everyone will miss, in part because outcomes appear in a sequence that few care to follow, but buried in the Trump tariff Executive Order {SEE HERE} you will discover something.  As the unofficial Deep State strategist, and the self-appointed misfit explainer of stuff, lol, we will explain:

[Sec 2, SubSection (h)]: Sec. 2. (a) All articles that are products of Canada as defined by the Federal Register notice described in subsection (e) of this section (Federal Register notice), and except for those products described in subsection (b) of this section, shall be, consistent with law, subject to an additional 25 percent ad valorem rate of duty. Such rate of duty shall apply with respect to goods entered for consumption, or withdrawn from warehouse for consumption, on or after 12:01 a.m. eastern time on February 4, 2025, except that goods entered for consumption, or withdrawn from warehouse for consumption, after such time that were loaded onto a vessel at the port of loading or in transit on the final mode of transport prior to entry into the United States before 12:01 a.m. eastern time on February 1, 2025, shall not be subject to such additional duty, only if the importer certifies to CBP as specified in the Federal Register notice.

[…] (h) For avoidance of doubt, duty-free de minimis treatment under 19 U.S.C. 1321 shall not be available for the articles described in subsection (a) and subsection (b) of this section. {link}

So, Canada and Mexico get 25% tariffs, but China only 10%. 

Why? 

The secret is in that subsection “(h)” when it talks about de minimis treatment.

Essentially, what President Trump is doing is levying a much more massive import tax, and possible confiscation impact on the core source of fentanyl (and other illegal) substances.

(Bloomberg) — President Donald Trump’s new trade levies against China, Canada and Mexico include a broadside against e-commerce, with apparent plans to extinguish a long-held tariff exemption for packages worth less than $800.

Trump’s executive orders directing 25% levies on Canada and Mexico — plus a 10% duty on China — specify that the “de minimis” exemption for small packages no longer applies. Under the exemption, products below that dollar amount are able to enter the US without tariffs — a boon for China’s e-commerce retailers who ship often cheaper wares directly to consumers in the US.

The full scope of the de minimis changes — whether they apply just to the new tariffs issued Saturday or to older existing trade levies — was not clear. A White House spokesman did not respond to questions about its reach.

However, trade lawyers said Trump’s language cracking down on the de minimis exemption could apply broadly, even to existing duties against China, Canada and Mexico.

Regardless, the impact of the change threatens to fall most squarely on China, affecting retailers including Alibaba, JD.com Inc., PDD Holdings Inc.’s Temu and fashion-focused Shein. American shoppers and companies imported about $48 billion worth of shipments from the world under that loophole in the first nine months of last year, according to US Customs and Border Protection estimates. (read more)

Approximately a billion packages are estimated to enter the USA under the cover of the de minimis exemption. 

This is where the enforcement mechanism of the “External Revenue Service” combines with the tariff approach and the “state of emergency.”  President Trump imposed the tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, a nearly 50-year law that gives the president sweeping power to impose sanctions after declaring an emergency.

Now the billion packages, mostly from China, Mexico and Canada are going to be subjected to review and interception.

The de minimis loophole comes from back in the 1930s. The idea back then was, say you went on a vacation to Paris, you shouldn’t have to file customs paperwork or pay taxes if you decided to ship some little Eiffel Tower statues to your friends back home.

Congress in 2015 then raised the de minimis threshold from $200 to $800.  However, the e-commerce world exploded, and Chinese companies began using the de minimis loophole to ship cheap goods (ex. Temu and Shein) into the USA direct to consumers without paying any customs duty.

It was reported last year that the U.S. was on track to receive a billion packages through the de minimis loophole that aren’t taxed and don’t have customs slips saying what they are.  Making matters worse, illegal items are slipping through the cracks, including, knockoffs, unsafe items and even chemicals used to make fentanyl.  The worst abuser that exploits this de minimis loophole is, by far, China.

President Trump can require a customs and duty declaration stating what is in every package and subsequently collect tariffs and duties.

Put it all together and President Trump is executing an Emergency Act executive order, plus the imposition of a tariff review, and simultaneous interception of de minimis packages previously unchecked as the enforcement mechanism. 

All executed by the External Revenue Service.

President Trump has got them surrounded, and the scope of it has the media so overwhelmed they cannot quite put it together.

Almost too much winning…

… Almost!

The most consequential decision and executive order which came within the opening days of President Donald Trump’s administration has without doubt been his “reevaluating and realigning US foreign aid” — which sent shockwaves through Washington especially given federal funding has been cut to USAID in a shock blow to the agency. But it is also having a massive ripple effect throughout the world. Some foreign powers will welcome the news, while many allies as well as an assortment of US-backed ‘opposition groups’ will feel completely abandoned.

This has meant that pro-Western media outlets, NGOs, and ‘soft power’ organizations are in panic mode. This has basically overnight shutdown a multi-billion dollar regime change apparatus which pushed or often imposed American interests throughout the globe, especially in the very vulnerable Third World, as well as former Soviet satellite regions. The way this works on a practical, on the ground level is detailed in the well-known book Confessions Of An Economic Hit Man. As for Trump’s apparent efforts to dismantle the powerful USAID agency, we compiled some of the best current analysis from around the web outlining the huge significance of this move, which is nothing less than a historic reset (and we say a very welcome reset) of Washington’s relations with the rest of the world.

We’re looking at a seismic shift in the US’s relationship with the world, via Arnaud Bertrand:

1) The US is dismantling its foreign interference apparatuses (like USAID )

2) Marco Rubio stating that we’re now in a multipolar world with “multi-great powers in different parts of the planet” and that “the postwar global order is not just obsolete; it is now a weapon being used against us.”

3) The tariffs on supposed “allies” like Mexico, Canada or the EU: This is the US effectively saying “our attempt at running the world is over, to each his own, we’re now just another great power, not the ‘indispensable nation’.” It looks “dumb” (as the WSJ just wrote) if you are still mentally in the old paradigm but it’s always a mistake to think that what the US (or any country) does is dumb.

Hegemony was going to end sooner or later, and now the U.S. is basically choosing to end it on its own terms. It is the post-American world order – brought to you by America itself. Even the tariffs on allies, viewed under this angle, make sense, as it redefines the concept of “allies”: they don’t want – or maybe rather can’t afford – vassals anymore, but rather relationships that evolve based on current interests.

You can either view it as decline – because it does unquestionably look like the end of the American empire – or as avoiding further decline: controlled withdrawal from imperial commitments in order to focus resources on core national interests rather than being forced into an even messier retreat at a later stage. In any case it is the end of an era and, while the Trump administration looks like chaos to many observers, they’re probably much more attuned to the changing realities of the world and their own country’s predicament than their predecessors.

Acknowledging the existence of a multipolar world and choosing to operate within it rather than trying to maintain an increasingly costly global hegemony couldn’t be delayed much further. It looks messy but it is probably better than maintaining the fiction of American primacy until it eventually collapses under its own weight. This is not to say that the U.S. won’t continue to wreak havoc on the world, and in fact we might be seeing it become even more aggressive than before. Because when it previously was (badly, and very hypocritically) trying to maintain some semblance of self-proclaimed “rules-based order”, it now doesn’t even have to pretend it is under any constraint, not even the constraint of playing nice with allies.

BREAKING: USAID security chiefs placed on leave after they refused to turn over classified material to Elon Musk’s government-inspection teams, officials say. https://t.co/vqdPmJBs1q

— The Associated Press (@AP) February 2, 2025

It’s the end of the U.S. empire, but definitely not the end of the U.S. as a major disruptive force in world affairs. All in all this transformation may mark one of the most significant shifts in international relations since the fall of the Soviet Union. And those most unprepared for it, as is already painfully obvious, are America’s vassals caught completely flat-footed by the realization that the patron they’ve relied on for decades is now treating them as just another set of countries to negotiate with.

* * *

How the Biden administration weaponized USAID, via @DefiyantlyFree

1. Abortion: One of the first things that Joe Biden did after assuming office was to revoke the Mexico City policy, which was supposed to prevent the federal government from using our tax dollars to fund overseas abortions. He did this, even though 73% of Americans strongly oppose using taxpayer funding to support overseas abortion. That includes 59% of people that are actually pro-choice. He resumed funding to the United Nations population fund and dramatically expanded the scope of programs that are authorized to pay for abortion services. Joe Biden tied taxpayer funded abortion services internationally to the United States efforts to advance, gender quality globally and respond to gender based violence and to confront challenges such as HIV aids, tuberculosis and malaria. That means that grants given through ID that go towards malaria or other diseases include paying for abortions on demand in those countries. As a result of these abortion driven objectives in 2022 the US Department of state and USA ID budget was 12% higher than previous years and totaled 70 Billion dollars.

2. Identity Ideology: In 2021 the national gender strategy was implemented for foreign aid and started using an intersectional approach that considers barriers and challenges faced by those who have intersecting in compounding forms of discrimination. That’s a fancy way of saying Marxist victimhood in order of priority. In the Biden administration intersectionality dictated the manner in which US AI ID designed its programs and designed who received its funding.

3.Global DEI: Representatives of the UN who discussed for an aid frequently mentioned the 1619 project and said that slavery is an original sin of America. The Biden administration made accepting and requiring communities of color to adopt to DEI a condition of receiving foreign aide.

4. Global Climate Change: By reentering the Paris climate accords USAID was mobilized into action to fight climate change across the country and force the United States of America to underwrite this climate change overseas. In 2021 USAID announced that it would mobilize $150 billion in public and private climate finance by 2030 with the majority of funding coming from private service actors in collaboration with the United States Taxpayer dollars. There was an integration with the WHO‘s initiative on climate, resilient health systems and sustainable, low carbon health systems and the US national oceanic atmosphere administration. When they say malaria, they mean through climate change hysteria, and green energy policies. For instance, South America needs $26 billion to transform its power system and the United States and Europe under Joe Biden committed to $8.5 billion each to help the country make that transition. That money would be facilitated through USAID.

5. Perpetual need for foreign aid: There is no better example of the insidious relationship between foreign aid and nation building then that of Afghanistan. Even after we pulled out of Afghanistan, USA ID was used to continuously fund the nation.

6. UNRWA and terrorism: The moment President Trump left office and Biden restored to this organization and removed the Houthi rebels in Yemen from a US list of designated terrorists. Removing them from this designation meant that funds flowed to them in foreign aid and were misappropriated to attack and occupy the US Embassy in Sana.

More than 30 Iranian opposition orgs and media outlets have lost funding due to the pause in USAID programs (via Middle East Eye) pic.twitter.com/1p30I94bcD

— Dave DeCamp (@DecampDave) February 2, 2025

7. USAID has been used to fund leftist progressive causes exclusively: If you look at 50 USAID employees chosen at random, which the heritage foundation did 48 of them donated to Democratic candidates and causes, and only two of them donated to Republicans. Following the Floyd riots, 1000 USAID employees demanded the agency make a public statement, affirming Black Lives Matter and accused USAID of structural racism by not designing plans to combat systemic racism, injustice, colonialism, and police brutality, all around the world. The Rockefeller Center, one of the most leftist organizations signed an agreement to be in a strategic partnership with USAID and all of the individual political contributions went to progressive campaigns. The international rescue committee received hundreds of millions of dollars of taxpayer money to fund its highly partisan causes. The former cochair of this committee was Obama’s treasury secretary.

The Board of Directors has every single one of the founders of the Democratic Party and support progressive policy goals. Another major recipient of foreign aid is CARE international. This is probably one of the most partisan groups who has people like Valerie Jared, Nancy Pelosi, and Hilary Clinton carve out its policy. What once started out as an agency that was about helping to end global poverty in world, and hunger and has become an organization that is solely aligned with radical progressive Democrat agendas. And that is not even touching the vast censorship arm that USAID controls and funds. If anyone is curious about the rabbit hole that exists as it relates to censorship from USAID, I would suggest that you subscribe to Mike Benz on X.

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Nayib Bukele, the President of El Salvador, says more often there’s a hidden nefarious agenda…

Most governments don’t want USAID funds flowing into their countries because they understand where much of that money actually ends up. While marketed as support for development, democracy, and human rights, the majority of these funds are funneled into opposition groups, NGOs with political agendas, and destabilizing movements.

At best, maybe 10% of the money reaches real projects that help people in need (there are such cases), but the rest is used to fuel dissent, finance protests, and undermine administrations that refuse to align with the globalist agenda. Cutting this so-called aid isn’t just beneficial for the United States; it’s also a big win for the rest of the world.

USAID, like the National Endowment for Democracy, are well-documented CIA fronts that are designed to manipulate other countries’ internal politics for the benefits of DC elites and nobody else in the US.

Both agencies have wrought destruction and can’t die soon enough: https://t.co/NoDxJDtht7

— Glenn Greenwald (@ggreenwald) February 2, 2025

And here’s journalist Glenn Greenwald: “USAID, like the National Endowment for Democracy, are well-documented CIA fronts that are designed to manipulate other countries’ internal politics for the benefits of DC elites and nobody else in the US. Both agencies have wrought destruction and can’t die soon enough.”