Update (0825ET): President Trump has chimed in, confirming the altitude of the Black Hawk was too high…

Additionally, it appears the chopper had a few close-calls that night…

TRANSTERROR? Was the Blackhawk pilot actively trying to hit a passenger jet? Flight tracking seems to show that the pilot had three near misses before hitting the American Airlines jet. pic.twitter.com/vjWUqV7zPN

— @amuse (@amuse) January 31, 2025

*  *  *

While there are countless facts still left to be uncovered and scrutinized, there’s an early indication that the worst US air disaster since 9/11 may have resulted from a flight-path deviation by the Army helicopter that collided with a passenger jet landing at Washington’s Reagan National Airport. Remarkably, it appears an identical disaster may have been narrowly avoided just one day earlier, when an airline pilot chose to abort landing after deeming another helicopter was dangerously close. Control-tower staffing is also emerging as a major concern — including a decision to allow one controller to leave work early. 

Exclusive dash-cam video obtained by The Washington Post shows a previously unseen angle of the moment a plane and helicopter collided over the Potomac River on Wednesday night. https://t.co/1VErSdPVDW pic.twitter.com/kTicwRejsz

— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) January 30, 2025

Based on a determination of the UH-60 Black Hawk helicopter’s last location before colliding with American Airlines 5342 from Wichita, the Army chopper was flying above its authorized flight path, according to anonymous sources who spoke to the New York Times. The American CRJ300 stopped transmitting tracking data at 375 feet — suggesting impact occurred far above the 200-foot ceiling imposed on helicopters in that area. 

The Black Hawk was reportedly under the command of a female pilot with more than 500 hours of flight time. The male instructor pilot had more than 1,000 hours, while the crew chief is also said to have logged hundreds of hours. Given the shorter duration of helicopter flights, those hours are substantial, according to Jonathan Koziol, a retired Army chopper pilot who’s assigned to the Unified Command Post that’s been organized to coordinate the post-disaster efforts at the airport.

The Army has not released the names of the crew members, but the names of the two males aboard the Black Hawk have emerged via other channels: Staff Sgt. Ryan O’Hara and Chief Warrant Officer 2 Andrew Eaves. All were assigned to Bravo Company, 12th Combat Aviation Battalion, headquartered at nearby Fort Belvoir. While there are many social media posts purporting to identify the female pilot as a male-to-female trans National Guard member who on Tuesday publicized his transition, ZeroHedge cannot find authoritative confirmation of those claims as this article is being written. On Monday, President Trump issued an executive order barring transgender people from openly serving in the military. 

The Army says the crew was conducting a routine nighttime qualification flight, with the focus on safely navigating helicopter routes in and around Washington. However, more specifically, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said the crew was training for a “continuity of government mission.” That’s the name given for a response to an attack on the capital, or a major disaster that hits the city. In such an event, helicopters would be used to evacuate senior federal officials. The crashed helicopter was a standard UH-60; the battalion also flies the VH-60M variant: Distinguished by its gold top, it’s used for VIP transport. 

Every day, more than a hundred helicopters buzz around Reagan National’s flight paths. Roughly 24 hours before Wednesday’s catastrophe, one of those helicopters alarmed the pilot of another commercial flight to the extent she aborted landing and went around. There are no reports on the type of helicopter.   

A female voice in the cockpit of Republic Airways Flight 4514 informed the tower of the problem at roughly 8:05 p.m. Tuesday, according to the audio recording of air traffic control traffic. The plane took a sharp turn to the west, made a loop to try to make a second approach, and safely landed at 8:16 p.m., flight tracking records indicate. — Washington Post

Reagan runway chaos: AA jet avoids chopper CATASTROPHE — one day BEFORE ‘Black Hawk’ smash

Flight AA4514 was forced to abort its landing and circle back after a rogue helicopter crossed its path—an alarming incident now under investigation.

What is going on? pic.twitter.com/yoixbX945A

— RT (@RT_com) January 31, 2025

Meanwhile, concerning details have also emerged about the workloads assigned to the Reagan National air traffic controllers at the time of Wednesday night’s crash that killed all 67 aboard the two aircraft. Staffing was “not normal for the time of day and volume of traffic,” according to a preliminary FAA document reviewed by the New York Times. 

Under normal staffing, one air traffic controller is responsible for helicopter traffic, while another guides landing and departing planes. However, on Wednesday night, one man was juggling both responsibilities. According to the Times, that’s because a supervisor allowed a different air traffic controller to leave before that individual’s shift had ended. There are several other factors that could have contributed to the accident. Among them: 

• It’s not clear if the Black Hawk pilot was using night vision goggles, which can limit peripheral vision and depth perception, while also being problematic in an urban environment with its abundant lights. 

• Given the angles of the two flight paths, city lights may have camouflaged the lights of the American Airlines jet. “Going beak-to-beak at night, the lights of the [jet] tend to blend in with the city lights behind [it],” notes aviation YouTuber “blancolirio” in a detailed analysis of Wednesday’s scenario. “Another problem when you’re going head to head with each other is — if there’s no lateral movement in the windscreen — that light [of the other aircraft] is very hard to detect.” 

• Potential miscommunication: While the tower asked the Black Hawk (“PAT25”) if it had the American Airlines “CRJ” (Canadair Regional Jet) in sight, some are speculating the Army pilots thought the controller was referring to a jet that was taking off to their right, rather than the doomed jet that was landing from their left. Others think they may have been looking at another jet on approach — behind American 5342.  

Audio between PAT25 and DCA tower asking if they have the CRJ in sight. Affirms and requests visual separation. pic.twitter.com/6VAxx9zmv5

— NOVA Scanner Updates (@NOVAScanner) January 30, 2025

Chinese startup DeepSeek’s latest AI models, V3 and R1, were reportedly trained on just 2,048 Nvidia H800 chips—GPUs that were blacklisted by the US government in 2023 for sale to Chinese firms. Federal investigators are now combing through trade data to determine how DeepSeek acquired the restricted chips. 

Bloomberg spoke with sources close to the US probe focusing on “third parties” in Singapore that procured the H800 chips and sold them to DeepSeek—a move we’ve seen before to circumvent US trade restrictions (read here). 

Here are more details about the probe:

Officials in the White House and Federal Bureau of Investigation are also trying to determine whether DeepSeek used intermediaries in the Southeast Asian nation to purchase Nvidia chips that the US has banned from sale to China, said the people, who requested anonymity to relay private conversations.

At a confirmation hearing on Wednesday, Howard Lutnick, President Donald Trump’s nominee to lead the Commerce Department, said, “Nvidia’s chips, which they bought tons of, and they found their ways around it, drive their DeepSeek model,” adding, “It’s got to end. If they are going to compete with us, let them compete, but stop using our tools to compete with us. So I’m going to be very strong on that.”

Bloomberg has reported that Trump administration officials are focused on whether H20 chips should be restricted as well. This trend of restricting China from advanced AI chips designed and produced by US or Western-aligned companies ramped up in the last four years. 

According to regulatory filings, Singapore accounts for 20% of Nvidia’s revenue. The filings also show that “most shipments associated with Singapore revenue were to locations other than Singapore, and shipments to Singapore were insignificant.” 

Biden officials recently expanded rules that large shipments of high-tech chips to Singapore would require a license. However, shipments under 1,700 chips only require notification. 

Those sources close to the federal investigation did not provide Bloomberg with any other details about the Singapore buyers or if those entities were just shell companies. 

A report from late 2023 via Bloomberg found that a shell company in India was buying high-tech US chips, then turning around and selling them to Russia to circumnavigate sanctions.

Syria’s ruling Islamist group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the freshly self-appointed “President” of Syria Ahmad al-Sharaa (or Abu Mohammad al-Jolani), have demanded that Russia hand over ousted leader Bashar al-Assad.

Syrian HTS officials are also demanding “compensation” from Moscow after it sent its military forces in support of Assad since 2015. Russia is being asked to help with “reconstruction and recovery” following 13-years of war.

Sharaa’s Islamist government wants Russia to rebuild trust through “concrete measures such as compensation, reconstruction and recovery.”

All of this was conveyed in a meeting which took place this week between HTS and a Russian delegation in Damascus, which was a first since Assad fled on December 8. Russia quickly granted Assad and his family asylum, but he hasn’t been seen or photographed since.

It’s widely been reported that he is in Moscow, and many rumors have persisted – such as that he was supposedly poisoned – but none have proved true.

Of course, Russia is very unlikely to send Assad back to Syria; however, the Kremlin does have a strategic interest in keeping its naval and air bases on Syria’s Mediterranean coast. Military equipment has been largely packed up and moved elsewhere over the past weeks.

The status of the Tartous naval base and Hmeimim airbase remains unresolved:

Satellite imagery recently showed large-scale transportation of Russian equipment and vehicles towards the Tartous naval base. Bogdanov told reporters that “no progress has been made on the issue [of the bases],” and that “more negotiations are needed,” according to Russian news agency TASS. 

The Russian delegation to Damascus was led by Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov. “The meeting was generally good, it lasted three hours and included an official dinner … In general, the meeting was constructive and the atmosphere was positive,” Bogdanov told a press briefing.

The two sides “agreed to continue contacts to strengthen relations and understanding in the field of foreign policy.”

The Kremlin has been asked about the reports of a demand to boot Assad from Russia, but has not confirmed or denied that the request was made.

Why are you stunned that the ISIS-aligned goon who murdered Hevrin Khalaf spoke at Jolani’s “victory” party?

Isn’t this what would inevitably happen when the former leader of Syrian Al Qaeda took power after a decade long dirty war on the govt?

Don’t say we didn’t warn you! https://t.co/ZtrVYvETzJ

— Max Blumenthal (@MaxBlumenthal) January 30, 2025

Meanwhile, Russian forces are still present on Syria’s coast, but likely at diminished capacity, with reports saying much equipment has already been moved to a port in Eastern Libya under Khalifa Haftar.

Authored by Helen Partz via CoinTelegraph.com,

Stablecoin operator Tether addressed European cryptocurrency regulations amid exchanges like Crypto.com preparing to delist its USDt stablecoin in Europe tomorrow.

Tether expressed disappointment over market developments in Europe amid changes triggered by the enforcement of the European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) framework.

Crypto.com, a global crypto exchange, confirmed on Jan. 29 it will start delisting Tether’s USDt stablecoin and nine other tokens on Jan. 31 to comply with MiCA regulations.

“It is disappointing to see the rushed actions brought on by statements which do little to clarify the basis for such moves,” a spokesperson for Tether told Cointelegraph.

EU consumers under risk of “disorderly” crypto market

MiCA-triggered changes pose significant risks for EU consumers and the local crypto market, with exchanges like Crypto.com preparing to delist multiple tokens, according to Tether.

“These changes affect many tokens in the EU market, not only USDt, and we fear that such actions will lead to further risk being placed on consumers in the EU,” Tether’s representative said.

According to Tether, such regulatory developments in the EU could create a “disorderly” market at a time when MiCA is still in the early stages of implementation.

As previously mentioned, Crypto.com’s MiCA-forced delisting process is set to affect a total of 10 tokens, including Wrapped Bitcoin, Dai stablecoin and more.

Coinbase — an exchange that delisted USDT in December 2024 — said at the time it would delist six tokens to comply with MiCA. The exchange delisted WBTC on the entire Coinbase platform for other reasons on Dec. 19, 2024.

“We regularly review the assets we make available to customers on our platform to ensure we are meeting regulatory requirements, and will assess re-enabling services for stablecoins that achieve MiCA compliance on a later date,” a Coinbase representative told Cointelegraph on Jan. 30.

The spokesperson also mentioned that Coinbase has so far delisted a total of eight tokens to comply with MiCA.

Tether finalizes European strategy for USDt

Apart from broader consumer risks potentially arising from MiCA-triggered ecosystem changes, Tether reiterated that MiCA poses negative implications for stablecoins licensed in the EU.

“As we have consistently expressed, some aspects of MiCA make the operation of EU-licensed stablecoins more complex and potentially introduce new risks,” Tether said.

Tether’s representative also again highlighted differences in stablecoin use cases between Europe and emerging markets, where USDT is extremely popular.

“The USD stablecoin market is almost negligible in Europe,” the spokesperson noted.

At the same time, Tether still commends EU regulators for their efforts in establishing a structured framework, as it plays a key role in fostering growth within the sector, the spokesperson noted, adding:

“As Tether finalizes its European strategy for USDt, it remains committed to ensuring compliance with evolving regulations while introducing groundbreaking technologies such as Hadron and investments in transformative projects such as Quantor, designed to be MiCA compliant.”

Tether’s comments come shortly after the European Securities and Markets Authority pushed European crypto asset service providers (CASP) to start restricting non-MiCA-compliant stablecoins by the end of January.

While still allowing the listing of those tokens in sell mode until March 31, the regulator has asked CASPs to completely restrict non-compliant stablecoins by the end of the first quarter of 2025.

FCC Chairman Brendan Carr is launching an investigation into NPR and PBS he says will help lawmakers decide whether the government will continue funding the public news organizations.

In a Wednesday letter to both outlets, Carr said the inquiry would focus on whether the news organizations’ member stations violated government rules by recognizing financial sponsors on air.

According to Carr, NPR and PBS stations operate as noncommercial broadcast organizations, but that they may be airing announcements that ‘cross the line.”

“I am concerned that NPR and PBS broadcasts could be violating federal law by airing commercials. In particular, it is possible that NPR and PBS member stations are broadcasting underwriting announcements that cross the line into prohibited commercial advertisements,” Carr wrote.

“To the extent that these taxpayer dollars are being used to support a for-profit endeavor or an entity that is airing commercial advertisements,” Carr wrote, “then that would further undermine any case for continuing to fund NPR and PBS with taxpayer dollars,” the letter reads.

According to the report, station execs have been bracing for a potential battle with the Trump administration over government funding, and have been gaming out worst-case financial scenarioos.

Carr said he didn’t see a reason for lawmakers to continue funding the organizations, adding that he planned to notify members of Congress of his findings, according to the NY Times.

NPR CEO Katherine Maher said in a statement that the organization’s use of sponsorship – also known as underwriting, “complies with federal regulations.”

“We are confident any review of our programming and underwriting practices will confirm NPR’s adherence to these rules,” she said. “We have worked for decades with the F.C.C. in support of noncommercial educational broadcasters who provide essential information, educational programming, and emergency alerts to local communities across the United States.”

PBS also issued a statement, claiming to be proud of its “noncommercial educational programming,” and that it had worked “diligently to comply with the F.C.C.’s underwriting regulations.”

Two Democrat FCC commissioners released letters in protest of the investigation.

Anna Gomez, a Democrat, said that the investigation appeared to be an attempt to “weaponize the power of the F.C.C.” Geoffrey Starks, also a Democrat, said that Mr. Carr’s statement gave him “serious concern.”

Both stations have aired sponsorships for decades under rules set by the government. That said, public broadcasters are restricted by law from accepting traditional commercials, which the FCC has turned a blind eye to for years. The agency’s softened stance on the issue became a slippery slope – allowing public radio stations to become less dependent on government funding.

Former NPR executive and co-founder of consulting company Magnificent Noise, Eric Nuzum, said that sponsorships and underwriting are distinctly different from traditional advertising on TV and radio.

“The difference is, in a commercial, the sponsor can say anything they want — it’s their time,” said Nuzum. “In an underwriting situation, the station provides an acknowledgment of who’s providing the funding, along with basic information about the underwriter.”

Concurrently, there are multiple bills working their way through congress to defund public media – including the No Propaganda Act introduced by Sen. John Kennedy (R-LA) and Representative Scott Perry (R-PA). Separately, the Defund NPR Act has been introduced by Rep. Jim Banks (R-IA).

Earlier this week, NPR executives informed staff that the Trump administration had sent a memo notifying them that two grant programs for local stations were on the chopping block – however the memo was rescinded after it was blocked by a judge.

Authored by Andrew Korybko via substack,

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, who was just re-elected on Sunday for his seventh term, warned about Poland’s alleged territorial plans for his country and Ukraine. 

According to him, “Today you are eyeing western Belarus up to Minsk, you have already started talking about western Ukraine. You understand that you will not get an inch of territory from us. This is our territory.”

While Poland supports Ukraine against Russia and backs regime change in Belarus, it’s unlikely to send troops to either country.

Zelensky himself lamented last week that the Europeans won’t dispatch any peacekeepers to Ukraine like he demanded during his speech at Davos unless the US approves, let alone unilaterally launch a conventional military intervention in his support while the conflict remains ongoing. That’s because Russia earlier threatened to target any unauthorized foreign troops that enter Ukraine, which one of its senior diplomats just reaffirmed over the weekend amidst increased talk of this scenario.

Some Polish nationalists want to restore Warsaw’s Commonwealth-era control over parts of what’s nowadays Belarus, Ukraine, and Lithuania, but they’re a fringe minority, and the state has always sought to establish a sphere of political and economic influence instead of annex their lands. This has been Poland’s policy since 1991 after it accepted its post-World War II eastern borders, which took the form of bilateral cooperation, the Eastern Partnership, the Three Seas Initiative, and the Lublin Triangle.

The reasons were pragmatic since those modern-day countries’ historically indigenous Polish minorities were expelled and coerced to leave en masse after World War II. Additionally, Poland wanted to replicate interwar leader Jozef Pilsudski’s Intermarium policy of creating a buffer zone of subordinated states between it and Russia, which failed at the time due to the territorial compromise that ended the Polish-Bolshevik War (partitioning Belarus and Ukraine) and Lucjan Zeligowski’s (fake) mutiny over Vilnius.

Reviving territorial claims against those three – and especially without any significant Polish minority on the ground to back them up except in Belarus (though many there are considered to be “Sovietized Poles” who want to remain under Minsk’s writ) – would therefore once again ruin these plans. Poland’s hypothetical annexation of Western Ukraine would also radically reshape its demographics, lead to the inclusion of a large hostile minority within its borders, and spike the risk of interwar terrorism returning.

Western Ukraine was one of the cradles of Polish Civilization after many military, political, and artistic leaders came from there since it was incorporated into Poland in the mid-1300s, but Kiev already gave Poles visa-free privileges, so they can visit its historical sites without having to first annex them. The same goes for fellow EU member Lithuania and even Belarus, which also granted Poles visa-free privileges too, albeit for a lesser duration (90 days in a calendar year instead of 180 total days).

The socio-cultural motivation for annexing those countries’ territories where Poles were historically indigenous for centuries prior to the end of World War II is therefore neutralized, which pairs with the aforementioned political-strategic arguments against this for making such a scenario very unlikely. The contemporary military situation also precludes Poland unilaterally launching a conventional military intervention since it would be crushed by Russia unless the US promised to defend it per Article 5.

Therein lies the primary obstacle to the annexation scenarios that Lukashenko warned about since Trump is unlikely to extend such guarantees to allies’ troops in third countries who deploy there without his permission since he doesn’t want the US to get dragged into a war with Russia.

This means that even if Polish-backed militants destabilize Belarus like the latter claimed that it’s plotting to do late last year as explained here, it won’t be able to follow up by sending in what’s now NATO’s third-largest army.

For these reasons, while it’s true that “Poland pursues the most aggressive and bad policy against Belarus” exactly as Lukashenko said on Sunday, it’ll only send troops to there and/or Ukraine with Trump’s approval but he’s unlikely to greenlight this and Poland is even less likely to defy him. With this insight in mind, his remarks serve to raise awareness of the unconventional threat that Poland poses to Belarus and therefore by extension to Russia, but nobody should expect it to take a conventional form.

As fully expected, the EU is looking at options to restore Russian natural gas flowing into Europe (and even presumably via Ukraine), discussions which have of late taken on more urgency given Ukraine’s front lines are collapsing and a deal to end the war is looking inevitable, but whether something takes shape sooner or later remains the big question.

EU officials are mulling resumption of purchases of Russian pipeline gas which could be part of any potential settlement to the war, Financial Times has reported, citing unnamed sources. The outlet stated that advocates of such a ‘controversial’ plan, which includes Hungarian and German leaders, state that this could be an underlying incentive to maintain peace – the stability of Europe’s energy market.

“There is pressure from some big member states on energy prices and this is one way to bring those down, of course,” one official told the FT. And separately a senior EU official acknowledged that “In the end, everybody wants lower energy costs.”

But the mere suggestion of any such future large-scale return to natural gas in the EU is sure to trigger immense political backlash, which is more convenient for those currently benefiting from the current war time blockage in gas transfers and sanctions.

Pushback on the political front is going to be strong, and the argument will be made of ‘appeasing Russia’ and ‘abandoning Ukraine’ – and of allowing more revenue for Moscow’s war machine. Per the FT:

Floating the resumption of pipeline sales from Russia has infuriated Brussels officials and diplomats from some eastern European countries, many of whom have spent the past three years working to reduce the amount of Russian energy being imported into the bloc. “It’s madness,” said one of the officials. “How stupid could we be to even think about that as an option?”

…Or they could just be looking out for the interests and energy needs of their own respective populations.

As for who is benefitting most from the current state of things as some EU states scramble to make up for depleted supply:

The revival of the debate on gas sales has unsettled some US LNG exporters seeking to sign long-term supply deals with European companies. They fear that any restart of Ukrainian transit could make their products uncompetitive, according to two of the officials.

As we pointed out at the start of this month…

Europe has gone from relying entirely on cheap Russian gas to relying entirely on expensive US LNG pic.twitter.com/C4UiUH1W81

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) January 1, 2025

Slovakia and Hungary are among those who continue to rely most heavily on continued Russian gas purchases, and have been resistant to the bloc’s efforts at imposing diversification. To review:

Russia halted pipeline gas deliveries to Europe via Ukraine on Jan. 1 after Kyiv refused to renegotiate a transit agreement in response to Moscow’s full-scale invasion. Prior to the cutoff, the pipeline transported around 50% of Russia’s pipeline gas exports — mainly to Slovakia, Austria, Hungary and non-EU member Moldova.

Despite banning nearly all Russian pipeline gas and oil imports, the EU imported a record 17.8 million tons of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Russia in 2024. The bloc has committed to phasing out Russian fossil fuel imports entirely by 2027.

While the EU banned Russian crude oil and coal following Moscow’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, it has not yet imposed restrictions on Russian pipeline gas or LNG.

You will find more infographics at Statista

The biggest beneficiary of non-Russian LNG imports which have for the time being been fulling the supply gap, of course, the US which has seen its LNG exports to Europe soar since the Ukraine war and since either the US or Ukraine (or working in tandem) blew up the Nordstream pipeline, making (expensive) US sourced LNG one of the few realistic alternatives for Europe. In other words, Europe has gone from relying entirely on cheap Russian gas to relying entirely on expensive US LNG.

Via Middle East Eye

Swedish police have confirmed the killing of Iraqi refugee and anti-Islam activist Salwan Momika overnight on Wednesday. Momika, who was in his 40s and became famous for his regular Quran-burning events, was shot dead according to Stockholm police.

“Five people were arrested overnight in connection with the murder incident,” Anna Westberg from Stockholm police’s media center told Middle East Eye.

“The police received the alarm at 11:11 pm. A prosecutor has been assigned to the case, and the police are cooperating with them in the ongoing investigation,” Westberg added.

Widely circulated videos of his events had caused widespread anger in his native Iraq, leading to a diplomatic spat between Baghdad and Stockholm.

While critics condemned Momika’s Quran-burning events as incitement, the slain activist defended them as acts of free expression.

Momika’s recent posts on social media platform X included anti-Muslim memes, support for Israel’s military campaign in Gaza and calls for donations for his legal defense in an incitement case he faced in Sweden.

“Today the second session of my trial in Stockholm will begin on the charge of incitement brought against me by the public prosecutor because of my criticism of Islam. You can support me and help me save money to pay the lawyer’s fees,” Momika posted on X on 16 January.

A proponent of ending Muslim migration into Europe, Momika was a controversial figure amongst Iraqis in the diaspora.

Najlaa Jassim, a 40-year-old Iraqi woman living in Istanbul, told MEE: “First, I am against killing people, and the Quran is a sacred heavenly book that cannot be touched. I am against attacking religions.”

Speaking on Momika’s activism, Hasan Aqeel, a 20-year-old from Basra, said: “What is the point of acting on personal feelings if it harms yourself before anyone else?”

The killing is likely to heighten tensions between European governments and ascendent anti-immigrant movements that also oppose Muslim migration into Europe.

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

The Ukrainian news outlet Strana has published leaked details of President Trump’s alleged plan to end the war in Ukraine in 100 days.

According to Newsweek, which said it couldn’t verify if the details were accurate, the plan starts with holding a phone call between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in late January or early February, followed by meetings with both Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in February or March.

The leaked plan calls for a ceasefire to be declared by Easter, which falls on April 20. The truce would involve Ukraine withdrawing troops from Russia’s Kursk Oblast.

Once the ceasefire comes into effect, a peace conference will begin hammering out the details of a lasting agreement. The plan calls for a deal to be reached by May 9.

Once the details of the agreement are released, Ukraine will be instructed to end martial law and mobilization. That would mean Zelensky could lose power since his presidential term expired in May 2024, and he used martial law as the justification for not holding new elections. The plan would require allowing parties who oppose continuing the war with Russia to run for office.

Some of the proposed ideas under the plan for a Russia-Ukraine peace deal include barring Ukraine from joining NATO, an agreement for Ukraine to join the EU by 2030, and the EU facilitating Ukraine’s construction. Ukraine would also be able to keep its military and continue receiving military aid from the US, which could be a non-starter for Moscow.

The proposal would also require Ukraine to cede the territory Russia has captured. Ukraine would have to “refuse military and diplomatic attempts to return the occupied territories” and “officially recognize the sovereignty of the Russian Federation over them.”

Zelensky’s office has denied that the peace plan is authentic, although other media reports have said that Trump tasked his envoy to the conflict, Keith Kellog, with ending the war within the first 100 days of the Trump administration. If the plan is legitimate, leaking it could have been an attempt to sabotage it from moving forward.

Trump has said he wants to speak with Putin, but the Kremlin said on Monday that it hasn’t heard anything from the US about setting up a potential call.

As President Trump’s second term begins, it’s clear that voters within the U.S. have a wide spectrum of feelings about how it’s going to go.

On one side of public opinion, it could be a new golden age – on the other, a potential catastrophe. And this same polarization of opinion can also be witnessed around the world.

This shouldn’t be surprising – because of the size of the U.S. economy and its exceptional geopolitical influence, any change in policy in the U.S. can have big ripple effects outside America’s borders for better or worse.

Love and Hate

In this chart by Statista, Visual Capitalist’s Jeff Desjardins points out that public opinion on whether Trump’s presidency will have a positive or negative impact on their home country varies greatly…

The Data by Country

The data comes from a survey of 28,549 people by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR). It was conducted across 24 countries in November 2024 after the U.S. presidential election.

In this data set, India is the country that sees Trump’s likely impact on their country as the most positive. A whopping 84% of Indians surveyed saw this to be the case, with only 10% that saw a second term as being bad for India.

On the flipside, South Korea had just 11% of respondents that said Trump would be good for their country. However, a large portion of Koreans (67%) were not sure of the impact that he would have, which is interesting in itself.

As President Trump’s second term progresses, especially given the potential ripple effects abroad through tariffs and other policies, it’s likely that the international community will be watching his administration closely.

Over $1 trillion of billionaire wealth was present at Trump’s inauguration. Who was there and what are they worth? Check out this visualization from Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist to find out.