Chicago’s Inspector General dropped a bombshell report revealing that Mayor Brandon Johnson’s office improperly blocked public access to a special room within City Hall containing gifts to the city – including designer handbags, cufflinks, and a personalized Mont Blanc pen.

A new report from Inspector General Deborah Witzburg’s office concludes that Johnson’s office violated a city ethics policy requiring that any gifts valued at more than $50 and “accepted on behalf of the city” be logged into a book that is made available to the public on the 5th floor of City Hall.

But when two undercover investigators from the IG’s office visited the mayor’s office last June, they were denied access to the log, and instead told to file a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request to see it.

Then, when the IG’s office filed a FOIA request, the mayor’s office refused to respond to it on time – only to provide an incomplete spreadsheet of the gifts more than a month after the request was filed.

“That’s certainly concerning to me,” said Witzburg. ” Where there’s anything of value being exchanged, we would absolutely want to know whether those gifts are coming from people looking for influence in some way — whether those are lobbyists, or people doing business with the city.”

“Notably, a response to the FOIA request OIG submitted as a member of the public came only after OIG also issued a compelled document request to the Mayor’s Office seeking the same information,” reads the report.

Some of the 380 gifts listed included Hugo Boss cufflinks; Givenchy, Gucci, and Kate Spade handbags; a personalized Mont Blanc pen; a 2003 U.S. National Soccer Team jersey; size 14 Carrucci men’s shoes; and even whiskey—as being stored in a “Gift Room,” and others in the Mayor’s personal office in City Hall. –CBS News

6/ And here’s what they found in the secret log. Hundreds of luxury gifts, including ⬇️

🚩 Hugo Boss cuff links
🚩 Personalized Mont Blanc pen
🚩 Gucci Tote bag and crossbody bag
🚩 Givenchy Bag
🚩 Kate Spade Red Purse
🚩 Carrucci Size 14 Burgundy Men’s Shoes

Notably absent… pic.twitter.com/rBdgga3jUg

— Austin Berg (@Austin__Berg) January 29, 2025

Next, the IG’s office showed up in person unannounced to see the gift log, only to be told by Johnson’s staffers that they were told by the city’s Law Department that the IG must make an appointment to access the gift room. According to the report, the city’s municipal code requires all city employees to cooperate with IG investigations, including making any records available “as soon as practicable.”

And after speaking with the Law Department, the IG’s office said in the report that they were told they “would not be granted access to the Gift Room” to conduct a full inspection.

3/ Instead, under an “unwritten arrangement” between the Board of Ethics and the Mayor’s Office that has been in place since 1989, the mayor can completely disregard the law. Under this arrangement, the mayor’s office simply makes a publicly available log book of the gifts they… pic.twitter.com/Y6CNRbd9rb

— Austin Berg (@Austin__Berg) January 29, 2025

“Is it possible that there are a bunch of Gucci handbags neatly on a shelf in a gift room at City Hall, and no one’s using them, and nothing has gone wrong, and everything’s fine? Yes, that is possible,” said Witzburg. “But we’re not in a position for a lot of benefit of the doubt here.”

Johnson Defiant

In response the report, the Mayor’s office argued that the city’s municipal code and ethics ordinance don’t require them to make the gift room available for unannounced inspections.

“Notwithstanding the foregoing, the Mayor’s Office remains fully committed to ensuring that gifts are available for inspection through a properly scheduled appointment at the earliest practicable time,” said mayoral chief of staff Cristina Pacione-Zayas in response to the inspector general’s report. “This administration has and will continue to comply with all guidance from the Board of Ethics  … Our duty to do so is without objection.”

“I’ve never even seen this room that they’re talking about,” said Johnson. “I don’t mean to make light of, you know, this so-called investigation, but quite frankly, it bears very little. If people want a tour of this room, I’ll sign up, because I’ve never been to it myself.”

Authored by Ron Paul via The Ron Paul Institute,

“Delivering Emergency Price Relief for American Families and Defeating the Cost-of-Living Crisis” is the title of one of the many executive orders President Trump issued in his first week back in the Oval Office. This executive order directs federal agencies to “deliver emergency price relief” to the American people by reducing federal regulations that increase the cost or limit the supply of healthcare, housing, energy, and other goods and services.

Repealing regulations is an effective way to reduce costs and increase supply in the affected industries. However, the price increases caused by regulations are sector specific. Economy-wide price increases are caused by the Federal Reserve.

Widespread price increases are the result of inflation. Inflation occurs when the central bank lowers interest rates by increasing the money supply.

In his remarks by video on Thursday before the World Economic Forum’s yearly meeting in Davos, Switzerland, President Trump said he would soon meet with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to “demand” the Fed cut interest rates in order to help Americans cope with high prices. Pumping more money into the economy may give some consumers a temporary boost in purchasing power, but a long-term effect of the cut will be further erosion of most Americans’ standard of living as the influx of new money causes the dollar to lose value.

The short-term benefits of any increase of the money supply and reduction in interest rates are mostly felt by the well-off since they receive the new money before other Americans. So they enjoy increased purchasing power before the Fed’s inflationary policies cause prices to rise.

Interest rates are the price of money. As with all prices, interest rates inform market actors about market conditions. When the central bank manipulates the interest rates, it distorts the signals sent to market actors, causing misallocation of resources. The result is a “bubble” that produces a short-term boost in employment and incomes. However, the bubble will eventually burst, causing a recession. Just as middle- and lower-income Americans suffer most from the Federal Reserve-caused price increases, they are the primary victims of the Federal Reserve-caused recession.

The best thing Congress and the Federal Reserve can do when a bubble bursts is let the recession run its course. Recessions are necessary to remove the distortions caused by the Federal Reserve’s easy money policies. Of course, Congress and the Federal Reserve refuse to take the sensible, though politically difficult, path. Instead, they set the stage for the next bubble via “stimulus” spending and low interest rates.

President Trump claims he knows more about interest rates than does Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Whether or not President Trump’s experience in real estate development (a business that is very sensitive to changes in interest rates) makes him more of an expert on interest rates than Chairman Powell is beside the point. No politician, bureaucrat, or central banker can know the correct interest rate. The only way to know the correct rate is to allow individuals acting in a free market to set the interest rate.

Despite his misunderstanding of monetary policy, President Trump deserves credit for publicly criticizing the Federal Reserve.

President Trump should follow through on his critiques of the Fed by working with Congress to pass the Audit the Fed bill and legislation allowing people to use alternatives like precious metals and cryptocurrencies.

Restoring a free market in money is key to fulfilling President Trump’s inaugural pledge to bring about a new golden age.

Ahead of earnings of the world’s largest company which however has been going through a painful period of remarkable underperformance vs the Nasdaq, UBS had Apple sentiment at a quite subdued 5/10, saying that a number of folks are “treating the name as a funding short – a view mirrored in its elevated short interest (though it’s not a stand-out short in our Prime book, and the recent -11% pullback may have taken out some of that caution).” That said, UBS writes that there’s “no doubt AAPL finds itself well-positioned to mediate consumer AI adoption – a fact that keeps long-onlies engaged at these multiples… which are not worrisome for a services company like the one AAPL continues to become, notwithstanding the loss of GOOGL’s TAC fee.”

Still, for a stock that owes its last 50% in price upside to the euphoric post CCDC 2024 meltup, when the narrative emerged that AAPL would capitalize on the AI boom, only to find itself in a dismal position with virtually zero uptake, the downside for the company could be substantial if the market finally starts demanding some returns on the what is now becoming a very long AI hype cycle for the world’s most valuable smartphone company with virtually no IRR to show for it.

Even Bloomberg admits that it’s undeniable that Apple is in a bit of a troubled period. While rivals are thriving in artificial intelligence, Apple is a clear laggard with an inferior product that has missed the boat in the age of ChatGPT, Gemini and, now, DeepSeek. While Apple Intelligence was meant to help sell iPhones, it’s likely that the year-over-year bump we may see today in revenue is stemming from other changes — like slightly bigger screens and new camera features — as well as pent-up demand. The AI features have rolled out slowly and are thus far not much more than a marketing gimmick.

In any case, Apple is set to report its holiday quarter earnings results, which naturally is the most important period of the year, given that the company sees most of its sales over the holidays and saves its major new products for release during the quarter. Wall Street, matching Apple’s forecast from last fall, expects Apple’s sales to increase about 4% on an annual basis as the company reports its strongest results ever. As we previewed earlier, analysts estimate Apple will report $124 billion in revenue and its best iPhone quarter since 2022. Here are the average estimates compiled by Bloomberg for the major categories:

• iPhone revenue: $71 billion
• iPad revenue: $7.35 billion
• Mac revenue: $7.94 billion
• Wearables, Home and Accessories revenue: $12 billion
• Services revenue: $26.1 billion

If these numbers hold, that would mean Apple is looking at a clean sweep of growth annually in all of its product categories.

So how did AAPL do? Well, as many warned, the two weakest links – namely iPhone sales and China – is precisely what Apple disappointed. Here are the details:

• Adjusted EPS $2.40 vs. $2.18 y/y, beating estimate $2.35
  • Revenue $124.30 billion, +4% y/y, beating estimates $124.1 billion
    • Products revenue $97.96 billion, +1.6% y/y, missing estimates of $98.02 billion
    • IPhone revenue $69.14 billion, -0.8% y/y, badly missing estimates of $71.04 billion
    • Mac revenue $8.99 billion, +16% y/y, beating estimates of $7.94 billion
    • IPad revenue $8.09 billion, +15% y/y, beating estimates of $7.35 billion
    • Wearables, home and accessories $11.75 billion, -1.7% y/y, missing estimates of $11.95 billion
• Service revenue $26.34 billion, +14% y/y, beating estimates of $26.1 billion

The one – very big – fly in the ointment was the usual suspect: China, where revenues unexpectedly tumbled, sliding a whopping 11%, and badly missing estimates of a $21.57BN print

• Greater China rev. $18.51 billion, -11% y/y, estimate $21.57 billion

Going down the line:

• Total operating expenses $15.44 billion, +6.6% y/y, above estimates of $15.34 billion
• Cost of sales $66.03 billion, +2% y/y, above estimates of $65.98 billion
• Gross margin $58.28 billion, +6.2% y/y, above estimates of $57.98 billion
• Cash and cash equivalents $30.30 billion, -26% y/y, below estimates of $36.45 billion

And so on:

Looking at a breakdown of sales by product category it goes from bad to worse, because not only did revenue from the iPhone came in much lower than expected, at $69.1 billion, below estimates of $71.0 billion but it was actually down 1.4% YoY. So much for any hopes of an AI supercycle.

The rest of the product suite was mixed with Mac and iPad revenue coming in above estimates while wearables missed. Here are the details: .

• IPhone revenue $69.14 billion, down 0.8% y/y, and missing estimate $71.04 billion
• Mac revenue $8.99 billion, +16% y/y, beating estimates of $7.94 billion
• IPad revenue $8.09 billion, +15% y/y, also beating estimates of $7.35 billion
• Wearables, Home and Accessories was another disappointment, declining considerably and missing Wall Street expectations, wit: 11.75 billion, down 1.7% y/y, and missing estimate $11.95 billion

Bottom line, there simply is not a lot of excitement in Apple’s wearables segment right now where we already know the Vision Pro has been a huge flop and is doing nothing to help the top line, while Apple only released one new Apple Watch (versus its usual two or three) during the quarter. The new low-end AirPods and hearing features for the AirPods Pro are quite compelling technology-wise, but clearly not commercially enough to grow the overall category.

Here is the full revenue breakdown by product:

But if soft iPhone sales news was bad, the devastation that is China sales was catastrophic: contrary to expectations for a modest rebound, China sales declined for a sixth consecutive quarter, down a whopping 11.1%, and printing at only $18.5BN in what is supposed to be the strongest quarter, below the $21.6BN estimate. The rest of the world saw growth, modest in the Americas at 3.9%, and stronger in Europe and APAC, both double digits.

Greater China continues to be a very weak spot for Apple and the company hasn’t done much to push new products, pricing and initiatives in that market — or other emerging areas — to offset the issues.

The weakness there, which Apple will try to explain away in its conference call, is because of a combination of nationalism and interest in local products, whose designs are getting better. The local players are also trying new things like foldables while Apple continues to use the same design it rolled out five years ago.

The result: revenues declining now for an unprecedented 5 quarters!

There was a slight silver lining in the company’s Service revenue, which after missing last quarter, come in stronger than expected, rising to a new record $26.34 billion, 14% YoY and above the $26.1 billion expected. The question is what will happen once this last saving grace flatlines or, worse, starts contracting.

In the press release, CEO Tim Cook tried hard to stay positive, calling it the company’s “best quarter ever.”

“Today Apple is reporting our best quarter ever, with revenue of $124.3 billion, up 4 percent from a year ago. We were thrilled to bring customers our best-ever lineup of products and services during the holiday season. Through the power of Apple silicon, we’re unlocking new possibilities for our users with Apple Intelligence, which makes apps and experiences even better and more personal. And we’re excited that Apple Intelligence will be available in even more languages this April.”

And while Cook said the iPhone reached an all-time revenue record in dozens of markets and regions, the reality is that, sales declined and missed Wall Street expectations.

New CFO Kevan Parekh also got his first quote:

“Our record revenue and strong operating margins drove EPS to a new all-time record with double-digit growth and allowed us to return over $30 billion to shareholders. We are also pleased that our installed base of active devices has reached a new all-time high across all products and geographic segments.”

Elsewhere, Apple’s board of directors declared a cash dividend of $0.25 per share of the Company’s common stock. Translation: no $50 billion stock buyback announcement this quarter. .

Yet despite management’s valiant attempt to put lipstick on this particular pig, investors would have none of it and after an early headfake after hours which briefly sent the stock as high as $245, AAPL is now at session lows, dropping to $234 and falling.

Via SchiffGold.com,

While home prices increase in price exponentially, many worry as to whether they will one day own a home. 

For years the American dream consisted of home ownership and financial independence. The increasing price of homes makes it seem as though only a select group of elites can afford them.

The graph below shows median price of home sales exponentially outpacing real GDP per capita, not even taking into account that individual purchasing power trails far behind real GDP. 

The urgency of desire for a homeownership creates perverse, long-term incentives for both home buyers and builders.

Rather than building homes that are intended to last, construction companies, lured by high present demand, will build homes from cheap materials and use  techniques that prioritize speed.

The drastic decrease in the size of a 2×4 since the 1920s paints a vivid picture of the decline in home quality. 

The material quality as well as the design quality of homes has shot through the floor because homebuyers are not able to see the full risks of their investment. Because homes include the limited resource of land as well as a traditional durable structure, they have historically been a solid investment. Houses that were built over 100 years ago are often still hot commodities and they seem to constantly appreciate. Homes used to be built with the idea that they would last a long period of time and be repaired as they needed it. While each house is different, the public still mentally places them into one asset category when they are deciding whether to buy a home or not. Specific companies earn trust through years of repeated performance, and it would be easy to think that homes as an asset function the same way. Fundamental differences in durability will stratify houses into different categories of investment as buyers see how newly built homes disintegrate. 

Just as companies utilize different profit maximizing strategies, so also do home builders try unique approaches. Some builders plan for long-term success by creating homes that will bolster their reputation far into the future, but many home builders in recent years have planned for their investment to peak shortly after they build it, counting on housing shortage and buyer indifference to keep home prices in general high. While this is a good strategy for maximizing profit in the current market, people will slowly start to become more critical of new builds as they see their young homes disintegrate.

Two limiting factors for homebuilders of the past were more scrutinizing buyers and a smaller selection of materials. With lower demand for homes, sellers did not have the same negotiating power that they have been given since the housing shortage after World War II. Homebuyers  were also more likely to have had experience in construction, or at least some knowledge of craftsmanship. Their more trained minds would let them see signs of fast and cheap construction more easily than the modern eye. Homes were often bought with the idea of keeping them in the family for an extended period of time, so they were more carefully examined for quality. The second limitation to the wiles of builders in the past was that they did not have access to the same cheap materials that are currently available. While homebuilding materials are by no means cheap, they are far cheaper than the logs and stone used to fashion homes of the past. Cheaper transportation costs along with cheaper methods of production have allowed the building materials of all types to decrease in price. While some would have thought that this could have made high-quality houses more accessible, it seems to have only stirred up exponential cravings for bargains among homebuilders. They try to use far less framing and ever smaller 2x4s to make up for a lack of more stable and durable materials. 

Additionally, modern conveniences have shifted many costs away from building companies and towards residents. Homes in hot places that would have been built with thick, cooling walls are now fully reliant on air conditioning. Pre-fabricated parts also reduce producer cost and ultimately shift costs to long-term homeowners. pre-built units are much more difficult to repair and they are much more likely to fall apart if a single weak link is broken. Houses that are simple can be repaired simply, and that often pays off the higher cost of more substantial natural materials. While quickly built houses solve the housing problem for now, they will just exacerbate the problem 30 years from now when builders who could’ve been building new houses must waste time rebuilding where their old ones were demolished. 

While their work may be questionable, builders cannot bear the blame for responding to the self-centered nature of their target market. The American consumer does not think about their children as they used to. A house becoming worthless in 50 years doesn’t weigh heavily in their mind of one who cares only for deals today. Building a house that can last is objectively more expensive, but it used to be expected, and it pays off in the long run. 

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

In summary: bloated headcounts, no new sources of revenue from AI, and limitless content with no scarcity value. Welcome to the DSD: DeepSeek Disruption.

I’ve been fruitfully engaged in a lively dialog with readers on my Substack regarding my post yesterday Is DeepSeek a Sputnik Moment? (titled Is (Chinese) Software Suddenly Eating The World? on Zero Hedge) and my conversation with Adam Taggart on his Thoughtful Money channel: SPECIAL REPORT: Did China’s DeepSeek Just Pop The AI Stock Bubble? (56 minutes).

I can’t summarize all the topics discussed on the thread, but these two comments and my responses illustrate the tremendous range of dynamics now in play in the DSD: DeepSeek Disruption. (One favor to ask: since a bunch of folks borrowed my “Sputnik Moment” phrase without crediting me yesterday, if you use DSD – DeepSeek Disruption, please credit me. Thank you.)

Although the reader comments are only visible to paid subscribers, I post my own comments as Notes on Substack, which are visible to everyone.

Comment posted by Brad M.:

“I’ve always had a hunch that there are simpler methods to achieve high performing artificial intelligence. Of course, we should note that the chips China did this on are vastly superior than anything prior to the year 2000 lets say. And China does have decades of manufacturing experience and a literal army worth of engineers to throw at the problem. So we shouldn’t say that what China did was easy. It was just easier than throwing a mountain of money at the problem. You can’t fake scarcity that easily and the Mag 7 as you call them will continue to struggle while the smaller teams given freedom to try anything with their limited resources will continue to find success.

Or that mountain of money might end up working. Who knows for sure until it happens?”

My response:

Brad, those are very interesting points for exploration.

I’m reminded of various stories in TechLand about small teams developing the breakthroughs while thousands of employees in the corporation generated little value beyond maintaining the status quo. So each Big Tech has (for example) 175K employees, all smart, all dedicated, but a much smaller team blew the 175K teams of the Mag 7 away. Steve Jobs famously kept the Macintosh team isolated from Corporate Apple and exerted obsessive control over the development team. He knew better than to let Corporate do the Corporate Thing to the team.

Since finance and tech dominate the economy now, the big question is: how do I make a killing by investing in DeepSeek? This is a koan because there is no “owner” of the software techniques DeepSeek has shared with the world.

To Brad’s question, so what do the tech monopolies / behemoths do with their 175K “teams” now? For sure they can try to replicate DeepSeek, but does that require 175K employees? And since everyone else has access to the same concepts, techniques and approaches, then where is the scarcity value that generates revenues? There is none.

This all leads to a sobering conclusion: there is little justification for these huge headcounts going forward.

Comment posted by Simple John:

“I’d appreciate correction if I’m wrong. I believe I’ve read that the DeepSeek models are strongest on math and physics. In fact, aren’t LLM and image generating AI playing in a universe that is immensely less specific than math and physics and thus really just playing with words and images without any real insights?”

My response:

This is very insightful, as the examples of DeepSeek (or competing tools) solving math problems are “problems” where the “correct answer” can be determined. The “answer” to the “question” *write an essay on Charles Darwin for my class assignment” has no equivalent “correct answer.” The AI Bot can hallucinate a response that might pass muster if the hallucination is not too wild.

I’ve played around with Big Tech free AI tools for generating podcasts, essay summaries, etc., and have watched developments in the video-creation space. These are examples of brute-force processing working with templates assembled from “machine learning,” i.e. sampling human-generated videos, stories, essays, etc. As John noted, this kind of extrapolation of existing content is a different kind of “answer” to a different kind of “problem.”

So there are video-generation tools where you enter text instructions such as “a young man is walking through a 4th of July party holding a beer,” and the program generates a video clip of this scene based on its vast database of 4th of July clips, people holding a beer, etc. This is fascinating and fun, because there is no “correct answer.”

But what’s the value proposition here when everyone (or anyone with a keen interest) can access the same tools and generate limitless AI content? Who’s going to watch all this in an Attention Economy that’s already saturated with content?

Based on my limited understanding of the many software techniques DeepSeek employs, it seems likely that these structures may well be superior ways to solve “problems” that have testable “correct” answers.

Without going too deeply into specifics, a key concept in high-end machine learning (Google’s DeepMind, etc.) is estimating the accuracy of the answer, i.e. the probabilities of various potential solutions being correct. The “wait a minute, maybe this isn’t the best path, let’s start over” function of DeepSeek is based on the same idea, which is extremely valuable when the “correctness” of the answer actually matters.

In summary: bloated headcounts, no new sources of revenue from AI, and limitless content with no scarcity value. Welcome to the DSD: DeepSeek Disruption.

*  *  *

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Last month the de facto leader of Syria, Abu Mohammad al-Jolani (aka Ahmad al-Sharaa), told Al Arabiya TV that it would take up to four years in hold new elections after Assad was ousted and fled the country on Dec. 8. This obviously undemocratic pronouncement was met with silence among Western leaders, who had long supported the anti-Assad ‘revolution’ and regime change efforts.

In a ‘victory’ speech given Wednesday night, Jolani declared himself president of Syria, claiming that this would be for an unspecified transitional period. “We announce the appointment of Commander Ahmad al-Sharaa as head of state during the transitional period. He will assume the duties of the president of the Syrian Arab Republic and represent the country in international forums,” a statement said.

“The president is authorized to form a temporary legislative council for the transitional phase, which will carry out its duties until a permanent constitution is enacted and put into effect,” the announcement added.

The statement further confirmed the cancellation of Syria’s 2012 constitution and the dissolution of the former government’s parliament, the army, as well as security agencies, state SANA noted. Additionally all armed factions which previously fought Assad and the Syrian army have been declared dissolved and will be integrated into state institutions.

Western mainstream media spent years whitewashing the hardline Islamist-led regime change war, as it was also backed by US intelligence, NATO allies, and the Gulf states. Al-Qaeda linked militants were presented all along as somehow being enlightened Jeffersonian Democrats. 

Yet CNN admits that Jolani/Sharaa himself – Syria’s new self-appointed president – is a foreign fighter with clear past links to ISIS:

Al-Sharaa became a Syrian “foreign fighter” in his early 20s, crossing into Iraq to fight the Americans when they invaded the country in the spring of 2003. That eventually landed him in the notorious US-run Iraqi prison, Camp Bucca, which became a key recruiting ground for terrorist groups, including what would become ISIS.

Freed from Camp Bucca, he crossed back into Syria and started fighting against the Baathist Assad regime, doing so with the backing of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, who would later become the founder of ISIS.

In Syria, he founded a militant group known as Jabhat al-Nusra (“the Victory Front” in English), which pledged allegiance to al Qaeda, but in 2016, he broke away from the terror group, according to the US Center for Naval Analyses.

Fact check: True. https://t.co/GUq8hoPWbH

— Kevork Almassian (@KevorkAlmassian) January 29, 2025

As we’ve documented previously, this solidifies Islamist hold over Damascus for the long term, or what is essentially rule by al-Qaeda in suits. Even Washington still considers Jolani’s Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group a foreign terror organization, according to current law and designations.

This means sanctions on Syria are still in place, which has only made the common population’s suffering more acute, as there’s hardly any electricity or fuel, and medicine and food remains an immense difficulty. As for Syria’s new unelected autocrat, he’s expected to soon travel to Saudi Arabia in his first official trip abroad.

Via SchiffGold.com,

Shortly after yesterday’s FOMC announcement, Peter went live to unpack its aftermath. He criticizes the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold rates steady, offers insight into Jerome Powell’s press conference remarks, and skewers the notion that the Fed remains “apolitical.” Peter also addresses President Trump’s evolving commentary on oil prices and interest rate cuts as 2025’s economic challenges continue to mount.

Starting with rumors surrounding a potential Trump-driven interest rate cut, Peter clarifies what the president actually said regarding oil prices:

Because to be honest, what Trump said was that he expects the price of oil to drop sharply. And as a result of that big drop in oil prices, he would demand that the Fed cut rates immediately. So, that hasn’t happened yet. I mean, oil prices have come down from the high they hit a week or two ago. But they’re still what, $72, $73 a barrel? That’s not the type of price drop that Trump spoke about, which would result in demanding that Powell cut interest rates.

In the Fed press conference, when pressed on policy stances and tariffs, Jerome Powell claimed the Fed wanted to stay neutral. Peter, however, challenges that logic:

Another question he was asked was to comment on the tariffs and the policy that is being considered and what impact that might have on their mandate on inflation. And he says, well, we’re not going to talk about it. We’re not going to comment on that. … That’s not any of our business, which of course is nonsense. … Being apolitical, and I’ve said this many times on this podcast, it doesn’t mean not having an opinion. It means being above the fray. It means being free to express your opinion without fear of political consequences.

He reiterates that the Fed’s role includes pushing back against policies that may harm the economy, regardless of public opinion:

The point about having an independent Fed is that these guys don’t have to care what the voters want because they don’t need their votes. They’re supposed to be able to do the right thing even if the voters don’t know what that is. Even if the voters want to do the wrong thing, they’re supposed to be the adults in the room to say, ‘No, no, no, what you want is wrong, and here’s why.’

He underscores that, despite the dominant narrative, monetary policy is still far from genuinely tight:

Monetary policy has remained loose. Interest rates are still too low. You can tell by the record amounts of debt and borrowing that have not been deterred at all by the increase in rates because it’s been too little. Rates have not moved up enough to be restrictive. That’s why you still have all this borrowing, because it’s still cheap to borrow. In fact, the money supply growth continues. 

During the Q&A, Powell reaffirmed that waiting for 2% inflation is not required before cutting rates again:

He is not waiting for 2% before cutting rates, that he will cut rates before 2% as long as it looks like inflation is headed back down there. So in other words, they could cut it two and a half or wherever. They’re not going to wait for 2%, which is in contrast to what the Fed did when inflation was below 2%. … He had that attitude when we were below 2%, but he’s not equally as vigilant when it’s above 2%.

Powell’s noncommittal response to a question on Bitcoin betrays the Fed’s strong concern with propping up asset prices, even if it requires inflation:

He was asked about asset bubbles in general, and he acknowledged that stock prices remain elevated, but he didn’t mention that he was in any way concerned about bubbles or falling asset prices or in any way tailoring his monetary policy to asset price, which I think is just not true. Of course, the Fed is very much concerned about asset prices. The last thing they want is asset prices to crash. The reason that they pumped up the money supply so much specifically was to get asset prices to go up.

Peter wraps by addressing some of President Trump’s other comments, including sustained talk about reforming or abolishing income taxes. Trump’s proposals are not radical enough:

He talked again about eliminating the income tax, which of course is music to my ears. I would love to see the income tax eliminated and not just the normal income tax, right, that we all consider an income tax. But the Social Security tax, that’s an income tax too. You’re paying a tax on your wages, right? That’s your income, right? … So if we’re going to eliminate income taxes, let’s eliminate all the income taxes, including the Social Security income tax, which is a highly regressive tax.

In other news, the CME Comex is having an unprecedented month. Check out the details here.

What has been reported so far:

• DC Fire Chief: No Survivors on American Eagle Flight 5342. 

• American Eagle Flight 5342, carrying 60 passengers and four crew, collided with a US Army Black Hawk Helicopter with three soldiers near Reagan National Airport.

• At least 30 bodies have been recovered per NBC Washington report. American Eagle Flight 5342 departed from Wichita, Kansas, and was inbound to Reagan.

• A temporary morgue has been set up at the DC Fire Helipad at South Capitol Street SW in DC.

• Reagan National Airport will remain closed for flights until 1100 ET.

Map: Accident Area 

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Update (0754ET): 

Washington, DC Fire Chief John Donnelly confirmed at a press conference that there were no survivors aboard American Eagle Flight 5342, operated by PSA Airlines. The aircraft carried 60 passengers and four crew members, totaling 64 souls onboard at the time of the mid-air accident over the Potomac River late Wednesday night. 

BREAKING: DC Fire Chief John Donnelly said there are not believed to be any survivors from Wednesday night’s midair collision between a passenger plane and a military helicopter over the Potomac River, and rescuers will begin a recovery operation.

FULL: https://t.co/pyNsqtwm47 pic.twitter.com/iyhMKCAkGV

— NEWSMAX (@NEWSMAX) January 30, 2025

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Update (0701ET):

American Airlines CEO Robert Isom confirmed that American Eagle Flight 5342 (operated by PSA Airlines), carrying 60 passengers and four crew members, collided with a US Army Black Hawk helicopter on approach to Reagan National Airport. The Black Hawk was carrying three soldiers on board at the time of the incident. 

A massive rescue operation has been underway since the accident occurred late Wednesday night. NBC Washington reported that at least 30 bodies had been pulled out of the water. 

NBC Washington said a “temporary morgue” has been set up at the DC Fire Helipad at South Capitol Street SW in DC, adding the DC Medical Examiner called this the largest recovery operation undertaken in DC in decades. 

New images of the wreckage were posted online by NBC Washington:

On early Thursday morning, President Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social:

“The airplane was on a perfect and routine line of approach to the airport. The helicopter was going straight at the airplane for an extended period of time. It is a CLEAR NIGHT, the lights on the plane were blazing, why didn’t the helicopter go up or down, or turn. Why didn’t the control tower tell the helicopter what to do instead of asking if they saw the plane. This is a bad situation that looks like it should have been prevented. NOT GOOD!!!” 

American Airlines CEO Robert Isom released a video statement about the mid-air accident:

🚨#BREAKING: A statement from American Airlines CEO Robert Isom has been released regarding tonight’s plane crash, expressing the company’s deepest condolences to the families and loved ones of those affected pic.twitter.com/P97Um6ddBg

— R A W S A L E R T S (@rawsalerts) January 30, 2025

There are reports that the Black Hawk was “flying dark,”—meaning the helicopter’s pilots did not activate the crucial ADS-B signal, which allows air traffic control and surrounding aircraft to track its location in the extremely tight and heavily regulated airspace.

🚨 #BREAKING: The military Blackhawk that crashed into an American Airlines flight in Washington, DC was reportedly “FLYING DARK,” per ADSBexchange

The chopper was NOT broadcasting an ADSB signal at the time.

It has just been found submerged in the Potomac River, and first… pic.twitter.com/Ei74STsV1T

— Nick Sortor (@nicksortor) January 30, 2025

Consider this…

Reagan National Airport will remain closed for flights until 1100 ET. Commercial jets have been re-routed to Dulles and other regional airports.

US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth wrote on X that the Pentagon and the Army will investigate the crash.

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A mid-air collision between an Army Black Hawk helicopter and a regional jet near Reagan International Airport in DC was caught on camera from the Kennedy Center Wednesday night, prompting a massive response from fire, EMS, and police.

According to Fox‘s Chad Pergram, the jet was a PSA Airlines Bombadier CRJ700 regional jet which was on approach to runway 33 at Reagan Airport. It was reportedly carrying 64 individuals, including four crew members. There is no information at this time on casualties, however four individuals have reportedly been rescued and have been transported to the North Boathouse Fire Station at the airport (updated).

That said…

.@nbcwashington — Plane split in two in seven feet of water. Helicopter upside down, sort of “bobbing up and down” in water. Call went out to any vessels in the area to assist in search and rescue.

— Tom Fitton (@TomFitton) January 30, 2025

There were three individuals on the Black Hawk which was operating out of Fort Belvoir in Virginia, according to the Army. None of those aboard were senior Army officials, according to the NYT.

FAA: A PSA Airlines Bombardier CRJ700 regional jet collided in midair with a Sikorsky H-60 helicopter while on approach to Runway 33 at Reagan Washington National Airport around 9 p.m. local time. PSA was operating as Flight 5342 for American Airlines. It departed from Wichita,…

— Chad Pergram (@ChadPergram) January 30, 2025

According to local police, “DC Fire and EMS, the Metropolitan Police Department and multiple partner agencies are currently coordinating a search and rescue operation in the Potomac River.”

DCA scanner: a guy just asked for the “morgue to be started up.” Another guy responded “it’s already started and running in the boat house.”

— Kassy Akiva (@KassyAkiva) January 30, 2025

Any survivors in the water could be at risk, according to the NY Times, as temperatures are expected to drop below freezing in the Washington area tonight. According to the National Weather Service, hypothermia can kick in within 20-30 minutes in cold water.

According to Flightradar24, the Black Hawk helicopter was not broadcasting its ADS-B data at the time of the crash.

The FAA confirms tonight’s collision near DCA involved #AA5342 and a US military H60. The helicopter was not broadcasting ADS-B data. The last received ADS-B position from the CRJ was at 01:48 UTC.

AA5342 was en route from Wichita to Washington (DCA) and was on final approach… pic.twitter.com/2NT3LGCAlq

— Flightradar24 (@flightradar24) January 30, 2025

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told Fox News that President Trump is aware of the situation, adding that it “tragically appears a military helicopter collided with a regional jet.”

“May God Bless their souls,” Trump said in a statement.

Webcam at the Kennedy Center caught an explosion mid-air across the Potomac. https://t.co/v75sxitpH6 pic.twitter.com/HInYdhBYs5

— Alejandro Alvarez (@aletweetsnews) January 30, 2025

In response to the incident, nearby Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport halted all takeoffs and landings as emergency personnel responded do an “aircraft incident on the airfield.”

DC Fire and Emergency Medical Services posted to X shortly after 9 p.m. that a small aircraft was down in the Potomac River near the airport, and that boats managed by the fire department were on the scene.

Confirmed small aircraft down in Potomac River vicinity Reagan National Airport. Fireboats on scene. #DCsBravest

— DC Fire and EMS Department (@dcfireems) January 30, 2025

Fire boats collecting bodies from around the debris field per live scanner traffic.

— Tyler Anderson, MD (@DoctorTyMD) January 30, 2025

🚨🇺🇸 PRESIDENT BRIEFED ON D.C. MID-AIR COLLISION

Trump has been briefed on the mid-air collision involving American Airlines Flight 5342 and a Sikorsky H-60 helicopter near Reagan National Airport, according to the White House press office.

The FAA reports that the Bombardier… https://t.co/D8USeGIE4I pic.twitter.com/fJYFK43AXT

— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) January 30, 2025

According to an account from someone who claims to have listened to air traffic control audio (so very unconfirmed):

Just listened thru 20 mins of ATC recording Helo called out to ATC that he could see a jet on approach ATC asked for heading and altitude Helo called back with heading and altitude ATC called out >maintain visual separation ATC called out to American Jet and confirmed they were on final American jet said yes on final at xxx altitude xxx knots ATC called out maintain final Helo called out he could see airliner, confirm maintain ATC called out >maintain heading Then literally 5 seconds later ATC calls out >American 472 cancel landing clearance for runway 1c it was at that moment…. ATC realized he fuck’t up the call out “maintain visual separation” basically tells the pilots to watch out for themselves and make sure you dont run into each other, its a way to release liability from the ATC for separation distance. It leaves it up to the pilots. However ATC then told them both to maintain heading

Audio between PAT25 and DCA tower asking if they have the CRJ in sight. Affirms and requests visual separation. pic.twitter.com/6VAxx9zmv5

— NOVA Scanner Updates (@NOVAScanner) January 30, 2025

Listen here (starts at 17:30 – 18:04).

Layman terms:
Tower: “Chopper do you have the plane in sight?”
“Pass behind the plane” https://t.co/AEvwKvHE5D

— Sandy 〽️ (@RightGlockMom) January 30, 2025

In a post to X, Sen. Roger Marshall (R-KS) said he had seen reports of a collision with a DC helicopter and a flight that was inbound from Wichita, Kansas.

“We are in contact with authorities working to get answers,” Marshall wrote. “We ask you to join us in prayer for every single passenger and their families.”

NEW: Man waiting for his wife at Reagan National Airport shows a reporter the final texts with his wife before the plane with 60 on board went down.

The man said his wife texted him that she was landing in 20 minutes.

“I’m just praying that somebody’s pulling her out of the… pic.twitter.com/SnEmNtMLKl

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) January 30, 2025

Developing…

Authored by Travis Gillmore via The Epoch Times,

President Donald Trump’s attorneys filed an appeal on Wednesday challenging his conviction for falsifying business records.

Trump’s lawyers filed a notice of appeal, asking the New York mid-level appeals court to overturn his conviction on 34 counts of falsifying business records from May last year.

“The misuse of the criminal law by the Manhattan DA to target President Trump sets a dangerous precedent, and we look forward to the case being dismissed on appeal,” Robert Giuffra, co-chair of Sullivan & Cromwell LLP and the lead attorney representing the president in the matter, said in a statement.

He said the appeal is a step toward protecting New York’s “reputation as a global business, financial, and legal center.”

The president is managing the appeal with a new legal team after he recently appointed his two previous attorneys, Emil Bove and Todd Blanche, to Justice Department administration positions.

Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s Office will next get to respond to the challenge, while Trump’s legal team can submit further details explaining the grounds of the case.

The charges relate to business record improprieties and payments to Trump’s former attorney, Michael Cohen, during his 2016 campaign for the Republican nomination. Prosecutors alleged the $130,000 payout was to keep adult film actress Stormy Daniels from saying anything that might damage Trump’s 2016 campaign while accounting ledgers suggest the money was for legal fees.

“This has been a very terrible experience,” Trump said during his sentencing hearing on Jan. 10. “I’m totally innocent. I did nothing wrong.”

“My accountants … called a legal expense a legal expense, and for this, I got indicted,” Trump said.

“It’s incredible, actually. This is a case that should have never been brought.”

Daniels alleged Trump had an affair with her in 2006, which the president has persistently rejected as untrue.

Judge Juan M. Merchan sentenced Trump on Jan. 10, with no fines, jail time, or probation ordered as part of a so-called “unconditional discharge.”

Though no penalties were included, the convictions stand on the president’s record, making him the only leader in the history of the nation to have a felony conviction.

Trump has challenged the allegations, the trial, and the outcome, vowing to appeal the conviction as soon as he was sentenced.

“This has been a weaponization of government,” Trump said. “They call it lawfare.”

The president told the court the case was “a political witch hunt” concocted to damage his reputation and influence the election.

“Obviously, that didn’t work,” Trump said. “The people of our country got to see this firsthand, and then they voted, and I won.”

Another group of hostages were freed in the latest round of the Hamas-Israel ceasefire deal on Thursday, including three Israelis and five Thai workers. The ceasefire has continued to hold, but there have been serious hiccups which threaten the deal.

But Israeli leaders were furious that the hostages were transferred by Hamas amid scenes of mayhem and mobs of people crushing in. 20-year old female soldier Agam Berger was freed in a ceremony of sorts in front of a smaller crowd in Jabaliya refugee camp in northern Gaza, complete with propaganda banners. But the other seven were freed separately in Khan Younis with Palestinian crowds rushing in to catch a glimpse.

“Footage showed hostage Arbel Yehoud, 29, looking stunned as masked militants hustled her through the shouting crowd, pushing people back. Also released were Gadi Moses, an 80-year-old Israeli man, and five Thai laborers,” Associated Press details. “Both Yehoud and Moses are dual German-Israeli nationals.”

Some reports said that the Israeli hostages could have been trampled or suffocated, and Tel Aviv condemned the unsafe handover which wasn’t according to agreed upon terms.

This exchange involves the release of 110 Palestinian prisoners, including 30 children. Israel eventually released them, but had initially halted their return in protest of the way Hamas freed the hostages.

According to one regional source:

Israel instructed buses carrying Palestinian prisoners slated for release under the Gaza ceasefire deal with Hamas to return to prisons, an official involved in the operation told Reuters on Thursday.

Israel’s Channel 12 reported that the decision to halt the release of Palestinian prisoners was made ‘in protest’ of the scenes outside Yahya Sinwar’s home, where Israeli and Thai captives were exchanged for the prisoners.

Below: crowds press in as hostages released on Thursday…

I must say, after the horrific images we witnessed during the release of hostages today, I find it difficult to have any empathy for the ‘civilians’ of Gaza, given they are so indistinguishable from the savages of Hamas. They are no different to those who stormed on Oct 7th. pic.twitter.com/A4k3yl0UZF

— Arsen Ostrovsky 🎗️ (@Ostrov_A) January 30, 2025

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu blasted the “shocking” exchange scenes among crowds in Khan Younis while demanding that mediators ensure “such horrific scenes” are never repeated.

GAZA: The Palestinian hostage release parades are outrageous. They terrorize the hostages once again dragging them through the crowd of jeering Palestinians. Sick. pic.twitter.com/BXt0XhtsPJ

— @amuse (@amuse) January 30, 2025

He later said that mediators have assured him of safe exits for the hostages in the future, at a moment negotiators are said to be discussing the details of the second phase of the overall truce agreement.

The Israelis have now been reunited with their families, and all of the freed are in good condition. As for the Thais, who were kibbutz workers kidnapped on Oct.7, they are hoping to return home within two weeks.

🔴Channel 12 Israel, citing a source familiar with the negotiations:

“Losing control and posing a threat to the kidnapped is a blatant breach and we will not accept it.”

– Chaos broke out during the hostage handover in the morning. pic.twitter.com/o74pmGBvif

— Conflict Radar (@Conflict_Radar) January 30, 2025

“Though they seem to be in good health, they have been in captivity for 15 months…  I would think they should be able to return within 10 days,” a Thailand foreign ministry statement said.