Submitted by Thomas Kolbe
Will German policy paralysis and French protectionism save Germany’s automakers? Unlikely, since Paris and Berlin are pursuing similar ideological goals. Everything points toward the expansion of a green state-run economy. On that, there is agreement. The concerns of private enterprise are secondary.
Given the dramatic situation, automakers would probably take even the most hopeless escape route in an attempt to escape the downward spiral. This has now also caught up with the previously remarkably resilient BMW Group: Just last week, Volkswagen announced plans to cut 120,000 jobs, Porsche has to eliminate 5,000 positions, and Mercedes has already parted ways with 5,500 employees. Now BMW is following suit, announcing that it will have to part with 8,000 of its 154,000 employees. The pressure to act is considerable. In the second quarter, the Munich-based group’s profit plunged by a staggering 35 percent year-on-year. In the core automotive business, the company lost 60 percent of its earnings.
BMW’s workforce reduction is supposed to take place quietly: through natural employee turnover and a voluntary severance program. The company wants to avoid compulsory redundancies in Munich.
The initiative will begin in October and run until 2027, specifically targeting employees outside production. Between 30,000 and 40,000 administrative employees at BMW are expected to receive an offer to leave the company – in return, BMW will expand its employment guarantee for the future: compulsory redundancies in Germany are to be ruled out even if the company falls into the red.
Whether this policy can ultimately be maintained when push comes to shove remains to be seen. In any case, entire layers of management are to be eliminated and departments merged – not least because BMW has concluded that artificial intelligence can increase operational efficiency.
Efficiency programs in Germany’s automotive industry are unavoidable. Excessive energy costs are weighing on companies’ results, alongside Brussels regulation and the political campaign against the combustion engine, which still dominates the market. It is impossible to keep pace with global competition from the domestic production base. According to consultancy EY, German automakers and their suppliers lost 50,000 jobs within a single year. There is no sign of a reversal: Germany’s automotive industry association VDA now expects 225,000 jobs to disappear across the sector by 2035, some 35,000 more than its estimate just a few months ago.
And what is politics doing? It clings doggedly to the ideology of the Green Deal, regardless of what it may cost citizens – with the state, financed through taxes and debt, remaining as an employer of last resort if necessary. That, in a nutshell, has so far been the position of the political leadership of the European Union.
Euro-corporatism has grown far beyond its limits. Billions flow from taxpayers to Brussels and return, rebranded as climate bonuses, credit guarantees and funding allocations for dubious start-ups, into the channels of the green transformation machine. This may be the most extreme case of politically driven destruction of capital. The decline of European industry is inevitable. It is impossible to conceive of an economy that could withstand the subversive barrage of European ideologues over an extended period.
Bewildered and incredulous, they stand in Berlin and Paris before the ruins of their own work. Since political circles operate under an imperative of infallibility, every last resource is being mobilized to continue the prevailing policy. At the German-French Council of Ministers in Germany in mid-July, Emmanuel Macron and Friedrich Merz reaffirmed their common industrial policy agenda. The two governments subsequently instructed their negotiators to work out a broader compromise: France wants to shield European industry more strongly from foreign competition, while Germany is primarily seeking a way out of the crisis engulfing its automotive industry.
Too much money is flowing out: For Chinese EV manufacturers or solar-panel producers, Brussels’ subsidy machine is a welcome bonus. Countless businesses are effectively living off the naivety of European policymakers. It pays to put up the umbrella for subsidies when EU bureaucrats and political fools are scattering taxpayers’ money with both hands.
And so a German-French bargain is now supposed to bring relief in the crisis. Berlin would support the French demand for a tougher “Made in Europe” model for industrial funding. At the heart of the strategy is the Industrial Accelerator Act, or IAA, presented by the European Commission in March. It is supposed to apply in public tenders and funding programs and define requirements for applicants in advance. Naturally, CO₂-free products and manufacturing processes are to receive priority in the subsidy jungle.
Subsidies will continue to flow above all to decarbonization champions. But there is nothing remotely market-oriented about this; the subsidy frenzy merely promotes cronyism and a subsidy-hunter mentality in the EU. Brussels also wants to define in the future which third countries qualify as so-called “trusted partners.” In doing so, the bureaucracy is intervening massively in the existing supply chains of European companies. “Made in Europe” – a crude form of industrial policy, with bureaucrats at the helm who can, at the behest of politicians, give suppliers the thumbs-down and shut them out, regardless of the consequences this may have for European businesses.
Berlin had rejected this practice until now. But given the situation in the automotive sector and the French concessions in this area, the German government now appears open to a “Made in Europe” strategy.
The other side of the deal is this: France is signaling a willingness to handle the 2035 combustion-engine phaseout more flexibly. It will ultimately come down to negotiating CO₂ consumption quotas more flexibly and assigning a different weight to investments in hybrid drivetrains in the CO₂ balance. In short: business as usual in the same outfit, merely unbuttoned at one point.
Ways out of the crisis mean the end of the current policy. Technological openness for business, competition in a free, deregulated single market – politics contributes nothing to solving the crisis. Quite the contrary. The bargain between Paris and Berlin would appear protectionist from the outside, but could provide companies with some short-term breathing room through more efficient allocation of subsidies. In doing so, political pressure is removed to break with the fatal ideological design of the Green Deal.
Without a structural break with the ideological present, there will be no recovery. The therapy that Emmanuel Macron and Friedrich Merz intend to prescribe for the European automotive industry will ultimately prove to be an injection of the same poison that has turned the entire EU economy into an economic cripple.
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About the author Thomas Kolbe, a German graduate economist, has worked for over 25 years, he has worked as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.
