S&P 500 and Nasdaq remain near record highs despite yesterday’s post-Fed freakout. Risk-on is still in fashion as investors remain hopeful of a lasting U.S.-Iran peace. Though the question remains: Is the rally sustainable or are markets poised for a painful reversal before year-end?

Tonight at 7pm ET, Adam Taggart of Thoughtful Money hosts a debate between two of Wall Street’s closely followed technical strategists: Jonathan Krinsky, Chief Market Technician at BTIG, and Mark Newton, Head of Technical Strategy at Fundstrat.

Bull Case (Newton):

Newton sees the upward trend in tech/AI continuing higher, which will lift the broader market into 2027… even if there’s a little chop.

While he expects periods of volatility and some consolidation, easing energy prices and continued investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure will support further gains into year-end, even in the already-lofty tech/AI trade. With oil retreating sharply from wartime highs and investors increasingly focused on the long-term productivity benefits of AI (economic benefits that are real and not merely a bubble), Newton sees pullbacks as opportunities.

Oil was sent sharply lower on the news of a ceasefire, something Newton sees continuing into year end in the broader energy sector:

Energy could be a “source of real underperformance” in the months ahead.@MarkNewtonCMT of @Fundstrat tells @RemyBlaireNews healthcare and financials are his top picks, with $NKE “starting to finally show some evidence of rallying.” pic.twitter.com/p2C988c584

— FINTECH.TV (@FINTECHTVglobal) June 15, 2026

Bear Case (Krinsky):

Krinsky has maintained a more cautious stance as equities push further into historically stretched territory.

While the recent peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran has boosted risk appetite and eased inflation concerns, Krinsky has argued recently that elevated valuations, particularly in tech, are due for a correction at some point… especially with a seemingly hawkish fed. Krinsky has also pointed to the recent decoupling of bond yields and oil prices, having risen in tandem until post-peace deal where yields continued rising (possibly Fed-related) while oil tanked.

Recent gains have been driven largely by AI-related technology shares, semiconductors, and the Magnificent Seven, while many other areas of the market have failed to keep pace. Both Newton and Krinsky agree on this, though only one sees it as fuel to further propel markets higher… the other sees a ticking time bomb.

Both panelists rely on technicals and regularly change their market outlooks based on data. Neither guest is a perma-bull or bear… so no broken clocks tonight.

Tune in tonight at 7pm ET on the ZH homepage, X Feed, and Youtube channel to watch live to see how they’re looking at Iran, Fed chair Warsh, and markets.

Authored by Micah Zimmermann via BitcoinMagazine.com,

The Federal Reserve proposed Thursday that payment stablecoin issuers maintain written customer identification programs, a move that signals Washington’s determination to bring digital asset markets under the same anti-money laundering discipline long applied to traditional banks — even as regulators race to finalize rules before a statutory deadline this coming January.

The proposal would require so-called permitted payment stablecoin issuers, or PPSIs, to collect from each new customer a legal name, date of birth or formation, physical address, and a government-issued identification number before opening an account. 

The Federal Reserve framework mirrors CIP obligations that banks, broker-dealers, mutual funds, and futures commission merchants have operated under for more than two decades. Regulators will take public feedback on the proposal for 60 days.

The Federal Reserve’s action follows a wave of rulemaking set in motion by the Genius Act — formally, the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins Act — which President Trump signed into law in July 2025.

That landmark legislation created the first federal regulatory system for stablecoins, mandating 100% reserve backing with liquid assets and subjecting issuers to the Bank Secrecy Act for the first time. 

The statute requires stablecoin issuers to establish effective anti-money laundering, sanctions compliance, and customer identification programs. The Genius Act becomes effective on the earlier of January 18, 2027, or 120 days after primary federal regulators issue their final implementing rules.

Federal Reserve Governor cautions towards stablecoins

Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr has emerged as the most vocal voice of caution within the regulatory apparatus, even as his colleagues have embraced digital assets with new openness. Speaking in March at a Federalist Society conference in Washington, Barr warned that stablecoins face material risks around reserve asset quality, regulatory arbitrage, anti-money laundering gaps, and financial stability — concerns he argued the Genius Act’s primary text does not resolve on its own. 

“While some digital asset service providers are subject to anti-money laundering and anti-terrorist financing requirements in their home jurisdiction, it is far too easy for bad actors to evade these restrictions and operate without detection when transacting in digital assets,” Barr said in a statement Thursday. 

Barr, who previously served as the Federal Reserve’s top bank cop, contends that detailed rulemaking remains the critical instrument for translating the statute’s intent into enforceable protections.

Thursday’s proposal is the latest in a dense sequence of rulemakings from multiple agencies. In April 2026, the Treasury Department’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network and the Office of Foreign Assets Control issued a joint proposed rule requiring PPSIs to adopt written AML and countering-the-financing-of-terrorism programs and a full sanctions compliance framework. 

That rule would carve PPSIs out of the existing money services business category and treat them as a distinct class of BSA-covered financial institutions — a significant structural change, given FinCEN’s finding that roughly half of known stablecoin issuers have not registered as MSBs at all. 

The FDIC and OCC each issued their own notices of proposed rulemaking in parallel, covering licensing, reserves, capital requirements, and redemption standards. The CIP proposal announced Thursday is a separate, complementary rulemaking to those AML and sanctions rules.

Stablecoin rules and nuance

The proposed customer identification requirements carry technical nuance tailored to stablecoin markets. Unlike banks, a PPSI can face demands for direct redemption from token holders who acquired coins on the secondary market rather than through a direct issuance relationship. 

The proposal addresses this by defining an “account” to include that redemption event, meaning an individual who acquires a stablecoin on an exchange and later redeems it directly with the issuer would trigger CIP obligations at the moment of that interaction. 

Purely secondary market transactions in which the PPSI is not a direct counterparty — including transfers conducted via smart contract — would not constitute an account relationship under the proposed framework.

The timeline for finalization is tight. With the Genius Act’s effective date potentially arriving as early as 120 days after the agencies publish their final rules, the window for comment, revision, and adoption is compressed. Final CIP rules are not expected before 2027, which means the statute could take effect before its customer identification architecture is fully in place. 

Take-Two Interactive Software shares jumped early in the cash session after the company announced on X that pre-orders for Grand Theft Auto VI will open next Thursday. The move is easing investor concerns that the highly anticipated game could face another delay, reinforcing expectations that Rockstar Games remains on track for its Nov. 19 launch date.

“Pre-orders for Grand Theft Auto VI will officially begin on June 25 on digital storefronts and at other select retailers,” Rockstar Games wrote on X. The gaming studio is a wholly owned subsidiary of Take-Two.

Pre-orders for Grand Theft Auto VI will officially begin on June 25 on digital storefronts and at other select retailers.

Check out the official cover art, also available as downloadable artwork at https://t.co/XPwC8URCQ4 pic.twitter.com/pRVXk4eyDQ

— Rockstar Games (@RockstarGames) June 18, 2026

The last major GTA release was GTA V, which launched on Sept. 17, 2013. Gamers have been waiting 13 years for a major GTA installment.

Rockstar has upset not just Take-Two investors but also GTA gamers on numerous occasions, indicating that its developers needed more time to finish the game, thereby delaying the launch. The launch date is set for Nov. 19.

Rockstar just gave us the best look yet at non-enterable buildings in GTA VI

It’s not a straight up png like in GTA V and other open world games with skyscrapers but at the same time, it doesn’t have anywhere near the detail as the rest of the game. What I’m really curious about… https://t.co/Q5ko9Gpawz pic.twitter.com/kVQTiGZ4VR

— Farzam (@farzam_plays) June 18, 2026

Take-Two shares are up nearly 6% in the cash session, though the stock has traded mostly sideways since peaking around $262 in October 2025.

Last month, we asked:

• Is Take-Two Sandbagging Guidance Ahead Of Grand Theft Auto VI Launch?

BMO Capital Markets analyst Brian Pitz noted, “We highlight that the game’s price remains a key question, as the launch of preorders next Friday should confirm base game pricing. We will also closely monitor for any higher-priced SKUs that give players early access to the game. Reiterate our Outperform, Top Pick, and $280 target price.”

According to Bloomberg data, 97% of the analyst coverage on TWWO is “Buy” rated with an average 12-month price target of $281.97.

For reference, GTA V sold about 225 million to 230 million copies worldwide.

There is already a report from Oppenheimer analyst Martin Yang that console sales are increasing ahead of the GTA VI release.

Amazon is in talks to sell its custom-made Trainium AI chips for use in other companies’ data centers, Bloomberg reports, noting this “represents a key expansion of its efforts to cut into Nvidia’s dominance”, although a less optimistic read is that the company does not have enough demand or capacity to use the chips for its own uses.

Peter DeSantis, Amazon’s AI chief, said the world’s largest cloud computing company has begun discussions but declined to name potential customers. Presumably, it will try to steal market share by offering its product at a much more competitive terms, which suggests more pricing pressure across the AI ecosystem.

“We view AI infrastructure as rapidly evolving,” he said in an interview in Paris. “And we’re constantly looking at ways to get to more customers.”

Introduced in 2020, Amazon’s AI accelerator, Trainium, has won a few marquee buyers, including OpenAI, Anthropic and Uber, which access the hardware via Amazon Web Services. The chip has produced more than $225 billion in revenue commitments, Amazon said in April (for a word of caution about purchase commitments read our discussion on the trillions in off-balance sheet liabilities sloshing inside the AI ecosystem).

That same month, CEO Andy Jassy wrote in his shareholder letter that it’s “quite possible” Amazon would sell racks of its chips to third parties. It was part of a broader attempt to reposition the sprawling company around AI, an area where it’s seen as falling behind rivals.

Amazon and other cloud computing titans have each been developing their own alternatives to Nvidia’s popular graphics processing units — and ramped up these efforts after ChatGPT’s arrival.

While the AI boom has generated soaring cloud sales, it’s also fueled a new crop of specialized AI cloud providers and driven demand for “sovereign” services in Europe and other regions that are subject to local laws and usually locate information and data processing in the host country.

In April, Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai said Google will begin to deliver its Nvidia GPU rival chips, called tensor processing units, to a “select group of customers” for use in their own data centers. Amazon is following suit with Trainium, in part, due to the growing demand outside of the US for computing resources that are controlled locally, according to DeSantis. Alternatively, there is just not enough demand in the US, no matter what the daily bullish propaganda says (because as a reminder, due to the $2 trillion in interlinked off-balance sheet liabilities, the moment one counterparty trips, it will drag down everyone else with it). 

Meanwhile, some of that foreign push, particularly in Europe, has prompted calls for countries to lessen their reliance on US technology or drop it altogether. Speaking at the VivaTech conference in France, DeSantis said the AWS business has not been impacted at all by this trend. Yet. 

The third version of the Trainium chip, which began shipping earlier this year, is “largely sold out,” he said. Amazon said there’s already strong interest in a fourth version that’s expected to debut next year.

DeSantis dismissed the idea that selling Trainium outside of AWS would eat into the company’s cloud business. “There’s so much underconsumption in AI,” he said. “I’m not worried about it.” But with token prices tumbling, and compute rental costs in free fall, both of which signal a sudden drop in demand (or excess supply) for compute…

Perfect storm: token costs down 20% since start of the month (down 11 of 12 days) , while compute rental prices are at 1 month lows pic.twitter.com/dwIYeyihGx

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 16, 2026

… he should be.

The executive also cited growth for Amazon’s Graviton chips, a general-purpose processor that it recently began providing to Meta. Over the last three years, DeSantis said Amazon has added more Graviton chips to its computing systems than any other type of chip.

Amazon shares gained as much as 2.5% on Thursday, reaching an intraday high of $243 on the news.

By Philip Marey, senior US strategist at Rabobank

Summary

• As widely expected, the FOMC kept the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged and dropped its easing bias. However, this unanimous decision was announced in an unusually short statement.
• What’s more, at his first press conference as Fed Chair Kevin Warsh terminated forward guidance.
• However, the Summary of Economic Projections had already revealed that half of the FOMC participants (who submitted a forecast) expected to hike before the end of the year. Warsh did not submit his forecasts.
• Other interesting features of the statement were the reaffirmation of maintaining ample reserves and the conclusion that the Committee will deliver price stability.
• At the press conference, Warsh announced the establishment of five task forces on: Fed communications, the balance sheet, improving data, productivity and jobs, and inflation frameworks.
• As uncertainty regarding the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz remains, we expect the Fed to remain on hold for the remainder of 2026.

Introduction

As widely expected, the FOMC kept the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50 3.75% and dropped its easing bias. However, this decision was announced in an unusually short statement. The decision was unanimous, with Miran – who repeatedly dissented because he wanted to cut – was replaced by Warsh. The press conference was a clear break from in the Bernanke-Yellen-Powell era, with Warsh making an end to forward guidance.

FOMC statement and projections

The statement was so short, that we replicate it here:

The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 12 – 0 vote:

The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate. The Committee reaffirmed its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system.

Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East. Productivity growth and capital investment are strong. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little.

Inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee’s 2 percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy. The Committee will deliver price stability.

Most notably, the easing bias previously expressed in the statement as “In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate…”., which suggested that the next change would be a rate cut -because the last three adjustments were rate cuts- was dropped.

Other interesting features of the statement were the reaffirmation of maintaining ample reserves – despite Warsh’s earlier stated goal to reduce the balance sheet – and the conclusion that the Committee will deliver price stability.

The new Summary of Economic Projections saw a large upward revision to the inflation forecasts for 2026 and core inflation in 2027. With minor changes to GDP and unemployment forecasts, the federal funds rate forecasts were revised upward in 2026, 2027, and 2028. In fact, the dot plot revealed that 9 out of 18 forecasting participants expected to hike before the end of the year. Warsh’s dots were missing. The median participant expects to get back to the current federal funds rate in 2027 and make another cut in 2028. This means we would have to wait at least until 2029 before the federal funds rate reaches its neutral level.

Warsh’s press conference

At the press conference, Warsh said that the FOMC recognized that inflation has been elevated for five years and that this Committee will deliver price stability. Warsh also announced the establishment of five task forces on: Fed communications, the balance sheet, improving data, productivity and jobs, and inflation frameworks. These task forces will include external experts.

Warsh also said that the FOMC statement was shorter and simpler, and that forward guidance was absent, because it is not suited for the current circumstances. He also confirmed that he refrained from providing projections, but he encouraged others to give their projections.

During the Q&A, he effectively terminated forward guidance. Any question regarding future policy decisions was deflected. He did say that financial markets work best if they react to the data and not to the Fed.

WARSH: I THINK THAT MARKETS PERFORM BEST WHEN REACTING TO INCOMING DATA, THEY WORK LESS EFFICIENTLY WHEN THEY ASK HOW WILL THE FED REACT TO THAT INCOMING INFORMATION

Finally, the 4th wall falls

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 17, 2026

He also elaborated on his plans to improve the data: he prefers real-time data instead of echoes from history. He thinks current data are often based on old-fashioned survey methods.

Conclusion

Although Warsh ended forward guidance, the SEP remains in place at least until the task force on communication has completed its work, probably by the end of the year. Although half of the forecasting participants now expects to hike before the end of the year, it was only three months ago – and after the outbreak of the war – that the median participant still expected one cut in 2026. This proves Warsh’s point that projections may not be very useful in the current situation. As uncertainty regarding the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz remains, we expect the Fed to remain on hold for the remainder of 2026. We expect the Fed to cut twice in 2027, provided that inflation expectations remain stable. If not, we may also have to pencil in hikes.

S&P 500 and Nasdaq remain near record highs despite yesterday’s post-Fed freakout. Risk-on is still in fashion as investors remain hopeful of a lasting U.S.-Iran peace. Though the question remains: Is the rally sustainable or are markets poised for a painful reversal before year-end?

Tonight at 7pm ET, Adam Taggart of Thoughtful Money hosts a debate between two of Wall Street’s closely followed technical strategists: Jonathan Krinsky, Chief Market Technician at BTIG, and Mark Newton, Head of Technical Strategy at Fundstrat.

Bull Case (Newton):

Newton sees the upward trend in tech/AI continuing higher, which will lift the broader market into 2027… even if there’s a little chop.

While he expects periods of volatility and some consolidation, easing energy prices and continued investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure will support further gains into year-end, even in the already-lofty tech/AI trade. With oil retreating sharply from wartime highs and investors increasingly focused on the long-term productivity benefits of AI (economic benefits that are real and not merely a bubble), Newton sees pullbacks as opportunities.

Oil was sent sharply lower on the news of a ceasefire, something Newton sees continuing into year end in the broader energy sector:

Energy could be a “source of real underperformance” in the months ahead.@MarkNewtonCMT of @Fundstrat tells @RemyBlaireNews healthcare and financials are his top picks, with $NKE “starting to finally show some evidence of rallying.” pic.twitter.com/p2C988c584

— FINTECH.TV (@FINTECHTVglobal) June 15, 2026

Bear Case (Krinsky):

Krinsky has maintained a more cautious stance as equities push further into historically stretched territory.

While the recent peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran has boosted risk appetite and eased inflation concerns, Krinsky has argued recently that elevated valuations, particularly in tech, are due for a correction at some point… especially with a seemingly hawkish fed. Krinsky has also pointed to the recent decoupling of bond yields and oil prices, having risen in tandem until post-peace deal where yields continued rising (possibly Fed-related) while oil tanked.

Recent gains have been driven largely by AI-related technology shares, semiconductors, and the Magnificent Seven, while many other areas of the market have failed to keep pace. Both Newton and Krinsky agree on this, though only one sees it as fuel to further propel markets higher… the other sees a ticking time bomb.

Both panelists rely on technicals and regularly change their market outlooks based on data. Neither guest is a perma-bull or bear… so no broken clocks tonight.

Tune in tonight at 7pm ET on the ZH homepage, X Feed, and Youtube channel to watch live to see how they’re looking at Iran, Fed chair Warsh, and markets.

The U.S.-Iran interim peace deal has been signed, and the normalization of the Strait of Hormuz is now beginning. Tanker traffic through the critical waterway is slowly resuming, though a full return to pre-war or near-pre-war energy flows could take months.

But behind the urgency to get the memorandum of understanding deal across the finish line were two uncomfortable realities.

First, President Trump recently met with oil and gas executives, who likely informed the administration that the conflict and the shuttered Hormuz maritime chokepoint were leading to an energy cliff that would materialize by mid-summer.

On Wednesday at the G7 Summit in France, Trump acknowledged the uncomfortable truth that SPRs used to offset lost Gulf energy production were being drained at an alarming rate.

“We run out of reserves in about four weeks,” Trump told reporters.

Trump said the world would have run out of oil reserves in 4 weeks, put pressure for a peace agreement.

Says it would have been “bedlam” pic.twitter.com/k45MTI8sNs

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) June 17, 2026

The latest Department of Energy data showed Cushing, Oklahoma, stockpiles declined for the eighth straight week, taking inventories to just above 20 million barrels. That’s the lowest inventories have been at the storage hub since October 2014, and takes us to what are considered essentially ‘tank-bottoms’, the point at which the hub is unable to fully operate.

*Trump Says `We Run Out of Reserves in About Four Weeks’

we know, but maybe not the smartest thing to admit https://t.co/N28eXJih5e

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 17, 2026

Second, the physical disruption in global supply chains had begun spreading beyond energy flows and into shipping costs, threatening to transmit the Hormuz crisis into broader goods inflation.

Last month, UBS analyst Pierre Lafourcade warned, “Supply chain stress is rising at its fastest pace since the early pandemic.” This prompted Lafourcade to re-launch the Global Supply Chain Stress Index.

Earlier this morning, Lafourcade warned in a new note that “supply chain stress spreads to shipping cost” and that “continues to rise.”

He continued:

Our Global Supply Chain Stress Index has continued to deteriorate, despite the recent decline in energy prices. In our update mid-May (here), we noted that the index had worsened by roughly 1.2 standard deviations since the onset of the Middle East conflict. Figure 1 below shows the latest June reading, based on weekly data up to last Friday (with missing observations proxied by the prior month’s values). The median of the 23 component series (blue line) now stands at 2.9 standard deviations—an increase of around 2½ standard deviations since the conflict began—and marks the highest level since May 2022. This reading predates the geopolitical developments of the past few days and so may well end up being a high watermark. But we suspect a sustained improvement across many indicators will likely require a tangible normalization in the flow of global energy shipments, not just a decline in prices driven by expectations of resolution alone.

Our Global Supply Chain Stress Index has After a slow reaction to the conflict, shipping costs are now accelerating The indicator is constructed as the cross‑sectional average of z-scored series—a first-order approximation to the data’s first principal component. Figure 2 overleaf shows the contributions over the past four months. The indicator most directly capturing the supply-shock nature of the Hormuz bottleneck is our measure of seaborne oil and gas flows (shown on the right of the figure, with the sign flipped to indicate rising stress). All other components reflect the shock more indirectly. Oil and gas shipping volumes have dropped even more from the immediate post-closure lows, while the volume of other cargo shipping has bounced back somewhat from earlier lows (see here for our latest read on global tracking). Delivery times and air-freight costs deteriorated primarily in March and April, with little additional movement since. Initially, supply chain stress appeared relatively contained and concentrated in these indicators. However, shipping costs now seem to be responding with a lag: after little change in March and April, prices have ramped up noticeably in May and June to date, across all major reporters (Baltic, Harper Petersen, Drewry, and Freightos).ntinued to deteriorate, despite the recent decline in energy prices. In our update mid-May (here), we noted that the index had worsened by roughly 1.2 standard deviations since the onset of the Middle East conflict. Figure 1 below shows the latest June reading, based on weekly data up to last Friday (with missing observations proxied by the prior month’s values). The median of the 23 component series (blue line) now stands at 2.9 standard deviations—an increase of around 2½ standard deviations since the conflict began—and marks the highest level since May 2022.

This reading predates the geopolitical developments of the past few days and so may well end up being a high watermark. But we suspect a sustained improvement across many indicators will likely require a tangible normalization in the flow of global energy shipments, not just a decline in prices driven by expectations of resolution alone.

If SPRs are drained and supply chain stress keeps rising, the global economy moves from a manageable disruption to a stagflationary shock. That would send energy prices higher, create weaker fuel demand, lead to margin compression for companies, and eventually risk a recession.

The sequence of disasters that could’ve unfolded:

1. Energy prices reprice violently higher

2. Shipping costs feed into goods inflation

3. Corporate margins get squeezed

4. Consumers get hit

5. Central banks face the stagflation trap

6. Emerging markets falter

7. Global equities shift into recession pricing

These two pressures help explain why the Trump administration moved urgently to secure an MoU with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The immediate goal was to normalize tanker flows and avert an energy cliff as SPR buffers came under pressure. The second objective is to stop the Hormuz disruption from spilling deeper into global supply chains, where rising shipping costs, longer transit times, and tighter effective vessel capacity were beginning to transmit the shock beyond energy markets and into the broader global economy.

Professional subscribers can read more about the global supply chain and the Strait of Hormuz on our new Marketdesk.ai portal. 

The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits for the first time fell from 230k (4 month highs) to 226k (vs 225k exp) last week – elevated but still within the range of the last four years…

Source: Bloomberg

Pennsylvania and Oregon saw the largest rise in initial claims last week while Ohio and Illinois saw the biggest decline…

Meanwhile, continuing jobless claims rose back above 1.8 million Americans – the highest print in 3 months – but still well off cycle highs near 2 million in Q4 2025…

Source: Bloomberg

The bottom line is that while initial claims are rising, they remain low by historical standards and continue to run below year-ago levels, reinforcing the more hawkish ‘labor market is resilient’ framework introduced yesterday.