Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via American Greatness,

To find an impossible peace between Ukraine and Russia we must understand the recent history of the war and the European and American roles in it. 

So, Americans should revisit some fundamental realities and questions from which to remember before going forward:

Why Did Putin Invade Ukraine in 2022?

Putin did start the war. Trump’s trolling aside, he knows that because he correctly pointed out that Putin invaded his neighbors in three of the last four administrations—but not his own, given Trump’s deterrence.

The most obvious answer why Putin did is that he thought he easily could. But why in 2022—as he had in 2008 and 2014?

Putin has nonending opportunistic desires to recombobulate what he thinks properly is and will always be Russian—whether territories to be formally absorbed or as coerced satellite states. But he moves on them only whenever he thinks the benefits outweigh the costs.

And by February 2022, he certainly felt they did.

The U.S. and NATO had lost all appearances of deterrence vis-à-vis Russia. Joe Biden had been part of the Obama-Biden administration that had naively appeased Putin for some eight years. Remember their 2009 reset by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton that was based on numerous flawed and disastrous assumptions:

1. The prior Bush sanctions against Putin for invading Georgia and grabbing parts of South Ossetia were overly harsh, reflective of his supposed cowboyism evident in Iraq.

2. The Obama mystique, coupled with criticism of the prior Bush administration, would win over Putin. Remember Obama’s 2012 hot mic appeasement in Seoul, when Obama promised Putin “flexibility” (i.e., cancellation of Eastern European defense, if Putin gave Obama “space” for his “last election” (i.e., please don’t invade and embarrass Obama until after he was reelected in 2012).

3. The U.S. thought it could act unilaterally in Libya and Syria, talk of expanding NATO in Europe, and expect a humiliated Russia to keep silent and distant.

4. Once rebuffed by Putin, who took Obama’s measure, an angry and rejected U.S. would cajole, beg, and finally try to force European Union democratic values onto the Putin regime—by sanctions, by aiding Russian dissident groups, and by claiming Putin was America’s archenemy.

The flawed working theory was that an either compliant or defiant Putin could acquiesce and begin liberalizing Russia, in emulation of EU and US democracy.

All these assumptions were manifested by both Obama and Biden in a number of ways:

1. By ignoring Putin’s 2014 absorption of the Donbas and Crimea;

2. By ignoring Putin’s continual cheating on the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty;

3. By contextualizing his hacking and cyber warfare that were targeting U.S. institutions and corporations (“Cut it out!” said Obama to Putin; “Certain critical infrastructure should not be attacked,” piped up Biden);

4. By suspending offensive weapons shipments to Ukraine;

5. By Biden’s announced hesitation to react to Russia’s “minor incursions” in Ukraine;

6. By coupling such appeasement with a near decade of tough talk (Putin as a “killer”) and Putin-bogeyman hysterias like “Russian collusion” and “Russian disinformation.”

7. And finally, and most importantly, by fleeing from Kabul after abandoning to the terrorist Taliban a $1 billion embassy, a $300 million airbase, and billions of dollars in military equipment.

Weakness and appeasement when coupled with loud false charges are a disastrous combination.

What Was the Biden/NATO Strategy to Deter Putin?

The most obvious answer is there was none.

After the failure of Obama covertly promoting the pro-Russian Ukrainian government in 2014 and trying to select replacement candidates that would supposedly cement the transformation of Ukraine into an EU, NATO-member, Westernized garrison state on Russia’s border, there was only an embarrassed acceptance that the Obama-Biden group had played into the hands of the aggressive Russian bear. But it soon proved it had no desire for any ensuing effort to put him back into his cave.

So, what followed with Biden after February 24, 2022, was ad hoc, on-the-fly measures that, as best we could tell, were guided by naivete:

1. Gradually and silently slide Ukraine into NATO;

2. Convince the Europeans to step up and arm Ukraine;

3. Increase weapons shipments and provide economic and intelligence aid to Ukraine to levels sufficient not to lose the war, but not to excess to win it and provoke nuclear Russia;

4. Keep feeding the war endlessly in efforts to bleed out the Russian military, weaken Putin, and perhaps provoke a “democratic revolution” in Russia;

5. Transform Ukraine and Zelensky into modern heroes by:

Overlooking entirely that Zelensky had all but canceled habeas corpus, most opposition parties and media, and postponed scheduled elections. In other words, was our once rock star becoming a “benevolent” wartime autocrat amid the apparent corruption of US and NATO aid?

Keeping mostly silent about the horrendous costs to Ukraine, where a quarter of the population has fled the country, 500,000 have been killed, wounded, missing, or captured, while the economy and infrastructure have been all but destroyed—with no end in sight.

What Were and Are America’s Strategic Interests?

We have many interests and, in no particular order, would like to work to see the following occur:

1. Stay out of a theater-wide, European war with a nuclear power.

2. End the horrific killing.

3. Seek a sustainable peace that keeps Putin inside his own borders.

4. Convince Europe to rearm, defend its own interests, and deter Russia.

5. Free up some US military investment in Europe to pivot to Asia and deter China.

6. Disrupt the Russia-China alliance.

What Should Trump Now Do?

1. Talk softer while carrying a bigger stick.

2. Leverage, if possible, a return of Putin to his February 23, 2022, borders.

3. Accept that none of the last three presidents believed Ukraine could militarily regain Donbas and Crimea and neither will be recaptured.

4. Keep Ukraine out of NATO.

5. Help NATO to ensure Ukraine is well-armed and capable of thwarting any Russian violation of the peace—in other words, a hyper-NATO ability without being in NATO.

6. Insist that all NATO countries must meet their 2 percent contributions and over the next three years up it to 5 percent.

7. Allow U.S. interests to do business in Ukraine for a variety of economic and strategic advantages.

For all of Putin’s bluster, he has paid a terrible price for marginal gains. And he would not like to repeat the invasion of an even better-armed Ukraine. Despite his braggadocio, Putin seeks an end to the war.

Russia has lost respect worldwide, especially in its military. And great powers in its neighborhood, like India and China, no longer fear Russian arms. Even without a NATO Ukraine, it is likely that both Ukraine and Europe will be better armed in the years ahead.

China may be more restive and opportunistic vis-à-vis Russia. Bottom line: Putin has lots of reasons to see the war end, especially if he understands that he cannot win it, or at least cannot win it without further political instability at home.

Trump also wants an end to the war and for lots of reasons. He knows that the U.S. is divided or rather, its parties have flipped. Conservatives want to end the war and see our military redirected to deterring China. They believe our presence abroad should not be enlarged, given the massive efforts at home needed to solve the debt, border, and cultural crises. The MAGA, don’t-tread-on-me creed is to avoid wars and entanglements unless belligerents either attack us or attack our close friends to hurt us.

In weird contrast, peacenik liberals quietly want the war to go on. They quite unrealistically believe that greater U.S. and European aid, along with Ukrainian and NATO partnership, will eventually “crack” Russia, lead to Putin’s removal, and the installation of a glorious Western, EU-Russian political and cultural democracy.

Trump must negotiate with, but not necessarily believe, Putin and proceed in Reagan’s trust-but-verify fashion. For the immediate term, he can neither politically afford to expand the war to gain negotiating leverage nor simply, in a Kabul-fashion, pull out and be blamed when Ukraine is overrun or continue the no-end-in-sight current Biden killing-field policy.

So, to avoid all three unpalatable choices, Trump wishes to move quickly and decisively to cut a deal no one will like now—but may be appreciated once the slaughter ends.

As for Ukraine, Trump has enormous leverage over it for two obvious reasons: 1) Zelensky’s resistance to Russia will collapse if U.S. military aid is even modestly cut back; 2) Zelensky is no longer the pop star of 2022 who saved Kyiv in what was naively then thought to be a short, quick victory for Ukraine.

Trump can persuade Zelensky to give up his NATO hopes and his dream of regaining lost pre-2022 territories. Instead, he can tell him to seek to reopen a free society—with or without his leadership—and to rebuild a new, somewhat smaller, more secure, and even better-armed Ukraine.

The model—unfortunately—is not a gloriously defiant and courageous Finland of winter 1939. Instead, it is—realistically—an exhausted, proud, and realistic Finland of March 1940, when it finally accepted the reality of a Russian impending victory, negotiated, surrendered disputed territory, was often criticized but still preserved its autonomy, balanced East and West, finally gained international respect, armed to the teeth, and deterred Russia from entering the Finnish quagmire again.

Trump can make the argument that Russian détente with the U.S. and Europe is in Russia’s interests. The West does not have any territorial ambitions in Russia—unlike Moscow’s current partner of convenience, China, which most surely does. That is Beijing’s attitude toward any territorially large, naturally rich neighbor (like Australia) that is underpopulated. Putin will likely stay in power if the war ends now; he will see real threats to his regime if it continues for another three years.

Trump can let Europe decide whether it wants a beefed-up NATO, under strong U.S. leadership and engagement, in which all the parties invest 2 percent of their GDP in defense now and 5 percent in three years.

Or he can let Europe prefer to keep conning and lollygagging—sorta, kinda arming, sorta, kinda not arming. And thus, Europe will ensure that the U.S. becomes a nominal 2-percent member but forgoes leading an alliance of what Obama once called deadbeat “free riders.” Their choice, not ours.

In sum, Trump can end the war to no one’s satisfaction, or let Europe and Zelensky negotiate and see the war continue endlessly to no one’s satisfaction. 

Given geographical realities, the U.S. can live without a settlement, but eventually, all the other parties cannot.

For all the media screaming and left-wing accusations, Trump’s recent antics have at least accomplished the following: the NATO nations, Ukraine, and Russia are all confused about what Trump is saying, and so now all the more want him to stop the war.

Via The Variant Perception blog,

The relative strength of the US economy makes tariff threats an effective negotiating tool, and “America First” trade and security priorities mean tariffs will remain a feature of Trump’s second term. Allocations to volatility and TIPS should prove the best hedges for headline risk and the stagflationary impulse from implemented tariffs.

As tariff announcements start to dominate headlines, we provide three key points to serve as anchors:

• Weak rest of world (i.e., non-US) growth means less bargaining power for targeted countries

• Demand is the US’s key “export” and the ultimate currency

• Tariffs are here to stay as MAGA 2.0 embraces Reagan + Roosevelt

Weak rest of world (i.e., non-US) growth means less bargaining power for targeted countries

At inauguration, we noted the slim Republican House majority could make tariffs a higher priority (relative to tax cuts) in Trump’s second administration than his first. One key difference between today and 2018 is the global growth backdrop, raising the likelihood of quicker resolutions to tariff threats in order to avoid a significant growth downturn in targeted countries.

On the growth front, the US economy is much stronger relative to the Euro Area and China than at the onset of the first trade war in 2018 (which was preceded by a period of “globally synchronized growth”).

This raises the stakes for non-US countries, whose economies would come under further pressure from a protracted trade war (see shaded area above). It’s possible these growth imbalances encourage targeted countries to settle tariff disputes quickly (as seen today with delayed tariffs on Mexico).

Demand is the US’s key “export” and the ultimate currency

On top of the favorable cyclical backdrop, the US’s role as the chief source of global external demand gives it more bargaining power in trade negotiations.

The US trade deficit has persisted for the past 25 years and represents the US’s role as the “shock absorber” for global excess production. In other words, one can consider consumption demand to be the key export of the US to the rest of the world. So, any like-for-like retaliation will hurt non-US countries more given the US (as the chief buyer) can turn to other sellers more easily than a seller can find a buyer that can replace the US.

Related to this, the US is also a closed economy relative to most other economies. So, any broad-based decline in trade will weigh less on the US economy than other more trade-dependent economies.

Tariffs are here to stay as MAGA 2.0 embraces Reagan + Roosevelt

The asymmetric leverage leaves the Trump administration free to pursue its MAGA/”America First” strategy of restructuring trade and security and make it likely that tariffs will be a regular feature of this administration, not only a negotiating tool.

The use of tariffs to implement the “America First” strategy appears to be a consensus among key members of Trump’s administration, notably Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent (who recently advocated for gradual implementation of US tariffs up to 20%) and chair of the Council of Economic Advisors Stephen Miran (who outlined a similar plan in “A User’s Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System”).

The trade policy echoes Reagan’s administration, which used measures like “Voluntary Export Controls” to limit imports of foreign goods and incentivize foreign companies to invest in the US. We think Trump will use tariffs consistently to boost investment in the US, given he’s repeatedly stated that the best way to avoid tariffs is to build in the USA.

Meanwhile, the security policy echoes the Roosevelt Corollary, which extended the Monroe Doctrine to allow for more direct US intervention in the broader Americas. The threat of tariffs to force Colombia to accept repatriated citizens, Panama to not renew its key canal deal with China, and Mexico to bolster border security are all evidence of a modern Monroe Doctrine/Roosevelt Corollary in action.

S&P and Treasury yields are the best KPIs, long TIPS + vol the best hedges

While Trump has stated he is not concerned about the market reaction, we still think a meaningful equity market drawdown or economic slowdown are the key constraints to Trump’s use of tariffs. After all, the only major pause in tariff announcements in Trump’s first term was during the S&P 500’s 15% pullback at the end of 2018. Treasury yields breaching 5% on inflation fears could also prove a constraint on Trump’s tariff agenda.

Taken together, we think long exposure to TIPS and volatility will be the best hedges against tariff headline risk and the stagflationary effect of tariffs (once they are implemented).

Via American Greatness,

A new disclosure by the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) to the House Judiciary Committee reveals that, under the Biden administration, the IRS leaked the taxpayer information of more than 405,000 Americans–including President Trump.

Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH), who chairs the House Judiciary Committee, began an inquiry into the leaks last year and with this latest disclosure has found that the scope of the leak was much larger than the Biden administration initially led the public to believe.

The Obama IRS targeted conservatives.

The Biden IRS leaked your data. https://t.co/hOO66tONWX

— Rep. Jim Jordan (@Jim_Jordan) February 25, 2025

The scandal began in late 2019 when an IRS contract worker named Charles (Chaz) Littlejohn, illegally accessed and stole tax returns and return information for President Trump and other wealthy Americans and then leaked that information to news outlets.

Littlejohn pled guilty to the unauthorized disclosure in Oct 2023 and was sentenced to 5 years in prison.

In April 2024, the IRS issued letters of notification to victims whose data had been leaked but the notifications prompted deeper questions into how many people’s data may have actually been disclosed.

One month later, an IRS spokesman stated that “more than 70,000” taxpayers had been affected by the leak.

In Dec 2024, a second round of notifications was issued to individuals and entities that were not part of the initial 70,000 recipients of the first notice.

Rep. Jordan sent the IRS a letter on Jan 30, 2025 requesting more detailed information about the leaks and the IRS’s response letter sent on Feb 14 revised the number of people affected to 405,427 with approximately 89% of those taxpayers being business entities.

The leak of taxpayer data under the Biden administration follows the controversy of the Obama administration being accused of abuse for using the IRS to target conservative individuals and organizations.

Take note that the same coalitions protesting the prospect of DOGE engineers having access to IRS records and other financial data are conspicuously quiet about the actual abuses that took place under presidents Obama and Biden.

Remember when the Washington Post refused to endorse Kamala Harris in the home stretch of the 2024 election and the entire organization went full Handmaid’s Tale? Now multiply that by 100…

For his second act, owner Jeff Bezos announced on Wednesday morning that the Post’s opinion pages will be “writing every day in support and defense of two pillars: personal liberties and free markets,” in addition to the standard fare.

As Bezos explains on X;

There was a time when a newspaper, especially one that was a local monopoly, might have seen it as a service to bring to the reader’s doorstep every morning a broad-based opinion section that sought to cover all views. Today, the internet does that job.

I am of America and for America, and proud to be so. Our country did not get here by being typical. And a big part of America’s success has been freedom in the economic realm and everywhere else. Freedom is ethical — it minimizes coercion — and practical — it drives creativity, invention, and prosperity.

What’s more, WaPo opinion editor David Shipley – formerly of propaganda rag The New Republic as well as Bloomberg’s editorial section, quit the paper rather than present a more balanced view.

Whether or not we can actually Trust Bezos and the CIA’s favorite outlet to follow through – this is a five-alarm fire at the Post. 

I shared this note with the Washington Post team this morning:

I’m writing to let you know about a change coming to our opinion pages.

We are going to be writing every day in support and defense of two pillars: personal liberties and free markets. We’ll cover other topics too…

— Jeff Bezos (@JeffBezos) February 26, 2025

The paper’s chief economics reporter, Jeff Stein, framed it as a “massive encroachment by Bezos” which “makes clear dissenting views will not be published or tolerated here.” (lmao!)

Massive encroachment by Jeff Bezos into The Washington Post’s opinion section today – makes clear dissenting views will not be published or tolerated there

I still have not felt encroachment on my journalism on the news side of coverage, but if Bezos tries interfering with the… pic.twitter.com/7hzWCUDCVV

— Jeff Stein (@JStein_WaPo) February 26, 2025

Everyone at WaPo is gonna walk out today aren’t they? https://t.co/XdJvOSSF0Y

— Blume Industries CEO Balding 大老板 (@BaldingsWorld) February 26, 2025

And the reaction from WaPo journalists has been like sunlight hitting a vampire. https://t.co/UyovKKm3sW

— Stephen L. Miller (@redsteeze) February 26, 2025

And the reaction from WaPo journalists has been like sunlight hitting a vampire. https://t.co/UyovKKm3sW

— Stephen L. Miller (@redsteeze) February 26, 2025

Former WaPo propagandist Jen Rubin (who quit in January to fade into obscurity), joined the swan song.

Musk-Trump destroy WaPo. pic.twitter.com/xBQjEVg4MN

— Bluesky Libs (@BlueskyLibs) February 26, 2025

*  *  *

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Romania’s conservative populist presidential election front-runner Călin Georgescu has been arrested in a shock move by the state, which has left his supporters bewildered and outrage, as they mobilize to protest what appars brazen ongoing political persecution.

The detention and ‘questioning’ by police and the prosecutor’s office is reportedly in relation to last November’s canceled vote that he won, after unsubstantiated and vague claims of ‘Russian interference’ were claimed. Western media has commonly sought to portray him as a ‘far-right, pro-Russian’ candidate.

“Călin Georgescu was going to file his new candidacy for the Presidency. About 30 minutes ago, the system stopped him in traffic and he was pulled over for questioning at the Prosecutor General’s Office! Where is democracy, where are the partners who must defend democracy?,” a post on Georgescu’s Facebook account indicated.

Back in December Romania’s Constitutional Court had ruled “to annul the entire electoral process for the election of the President of Romania… to ensure the correctness and legality of the electoral process” – as the controversial and completely unprecedented ruling stated.

The ‘problem’ was that 62-year old Georgescu, the widely dubbed ‘far-right’ contender, came out on top in a first round of voting in a ‘shock’ outcome which left political opponents scrambling and claiming Russian intelligence was behind the massive and sudden rise in his popularity.

After winning the first round on November 24th, he was scheduled to face reformist Elena Lasconi of the liberal Save Romania Union (USR) in the second round. Crucially, Georgescu’s huge underdog victory also happened with zero campaign spending, according to his declaration. This was another ‘problem’ and conundrum for authorities and his political enemies.

But the supposed ‘smoking gun’ was related to mere social media posts on platforms like TikTok. The ruling came after President Klaus Iohannis declassified intelligence that alleged Russia ran a far-reaching campaign comprising thousands of social media accounts to promote Georgescu across platforms like TikTok and Telegram.

Footage of his arrest on a Romanian street:

🚨🇷🇴 EXCLUSIVE: MORE FOOTAGE OF CALIN GEORGESCU GETTING ARRESTED

He won a Presidential election, so they cancel the election and now arrest him.

‘Democracy’ in action in EU and NATO member: Romania

See below tweets in the chain for the full story of what I woke up to this… https://t.co/0ZEBuyq9fj pic.twitter.com/WklqgPWkje

— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) February 26, 2025

Currently, Romanian news outlets are reporting that police are searching the homes and offices Georgescu’s close associates, reportedly in connection with the funding of his election campaign last year.

According to the latest from Politico: 

Prosecutors suspect 27 people of acting against Romania’s constitutional order, public incitement, initiation of a fascist organization and false statements regarding the sources of financing an election campaign, but they didn’t name Georgescu or his aides in their statement.

However, shortly after news of the raids broke Wednesday morning, Georgescu claimed that the searches were aimed to block his new presidential candidacy.

A machine translation from the Romanian of Georgescu’s post reads in part as follows: “The communist-Bolshevik system continues its odious abuses! Today, at 6 am, they descended again on families in dozens of locations, waking children from their sleep.”

“They are looking to invent evidence to justify the theft of the elections and to do anything to block my new candidacy for the presidency,” the post emphasized. “They have been searching for three months without success.”

🚨 BREAKING: Romanian presidential front-runner Calin Georgescu has been arrested, his team says.

He won the first round—before it was canceled over alleged “Russian influence.” It later turned out the interference had actually come from the pro-EU liberal party PNL. pic.twitter.com/AncH3yP3Yj

— Brian McDonald (@27khv) February 26, 2025

The arrest has happened ahead of the new election date of May 4th – which had been set by authorities for the new rerun vote. It’s as yet unclear if Georgescu will be able to participate in the ‘do-over’ election – and the legal intervention does appear an effort to damage and block his campaign from moving forward. If no single candidate wins over 50% of the ballet, a runoff would be scheduled for May 18.

In early January, as people took to the streets in support of Georgescu, the blocked frontrunner wrote in a social media post: “You petty politicians, with your ungrateful and immature games, you won’t even know what hit you in this global storm.” He compared Romanian leaders and judges with former French president Nicolas Sarkozy, who is on trial on corruption charges. “You are so small that you aren’t even able to understand anything. Nothing you do will make a difference anymore. The inevitable, is inevitable.” 

Power and electrical equipment companies moved higher in early trading after The Information reported Tuesday evening that Meta Platforms is in discussions to build a new artificial intelligence data center campus that “would dwarf anything the company has done to date” and be the largest project of its kind, with costs potentially exceeding $200 billion. 

A person familiar with the plans said Meta has been speaking with developers about potentially opening the data center campus in states including Louisiana, Wyoming, or Texas, adding senior executives have already toured potential sites. 

On Meta’s latest earnings call, META CEO Mark Zuckerberg said the social media company plans to invest “hundreds of billions of dollars” in AI infrastructure “over the long term,” without elaborating. 

TikTok Owner ByteDance Plans $12 Billion AI Chip Investing Spree; Trump Unveils “Stargate” Project https://t.co/ngpiMlDhWA

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) January 22, 2025

Like Amazon, Microsoft, and Google, Meta has aggressively increased capital expenditures to expand AI data centers, raising its capex to between $60 billion and $65 billion, nearly 70% higher than last year. The company has not provided details on whether the new project will begin this year.

“Meta’s proposed new data center campus, which hasn’t previously been reported, would be several times larger than a new AI data center in Louisiana that CEO Mark Zuckerberg discussed last month, which he implied would be about four miles long,” The Information noted. 

The people said that Elon Musk’s xAI data center in Memphis, Tenn, considered one of the world’s largest AI supercomputers, prompted Zuckerberg and Meta executives to expedite data center expansion plans. 

Since the launch of MSFT-backed OpenAI’s ChatGPT in 2022, AI Capex in data center spending has erupted, but a report earlier this week from TD Cowen suggested MSFT began canceling data center orders. However, it “strongly refuted” the Cowen report. US tech firms are also wrestling with ‘DeepSeek’ fears, essentially more efficient AI models that require less data center processing, which brings us to this…

The whole “Capex to the Sky” narrative for AI data centers among Mag7 companies is in jeopardy. However, big tech firms like Meta continue to push back against this bearish narrative by raising their capex projections…

… keeping the bubble alive.

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Megyn Kelly unleashed a verbal battering on MSNBC crybaby Rachel Maddow, accusing the “sanctimonious” host of smearing her own network with baseless racism claims following the long-overdue firing of Joy Reid, ironically the most racist person on the network.

Maddow used her Monday night slot to bash the MSNBC’s decision to axe Reid, a move Kelly described as a mercy kill for a network already haemorrhaging credibility faster than a B-movie loses the plot.

Kell ripped into Maddow on her SiriusXM show Tuesday, calling her out on the hypocritical, self-righteous tirade.

“She oozes sanctimony and self-righteousness,” Kelly sneered, pointing to Maddow’s on-air rant where she painted MSNBC’s leadership as bigots for cutting Reid and other nonwhite hosts like Alex Wagner and Katie Phang.

“She took her bosses’ faces and rubbed them in shit last night,” Kelly added with disgust.

Maddow’s Monday monologue was a masterclass in performative outrage, as she whined “It is unnerving to see that on a network where we’ve got two—count them, two—nonwhite hosts in primetime, both of our nonwhite hosts in primetime are losing their shows.”

“That feels indefensible. And I do not defend it.” She even sobbed over the “dozens of producers and staffers” facing layoffs, conveniently leaving aside the fact that her own $25 million-a-year paycheck might have something to do with the budget cuts she’s so torn up about.

Maddow decided to play woke martyr, slamming the cuts as a diversity disaster while ignoring the real issue: nobody’s watching.

Mr Maddow rants about MSNBC being racist for sacking Joy Reid. They should even things up a bit and sack him too. pic.twitter.com/lkGb7DUkZB

— m o d e r n i t y (@ModernityNews) February 25, 2025

Kelly wasn’t having it, declaring that Maddow is “full of shit.”

“If you’re really so disgusted with the ‘racism’ over at MSNBC, why do you want to work there? Put your money where your mouth is—walk away with your $25 million salary,” Kelly further urged.

Kelly’s not wrong when she says Maddow’s the architect of MSNBC’s downfall. “You destroyed the credibility of the entire network,” she charged, pointing to Maddow’s years-long obsession with the Russia collusion hoax—a conspiracy she peddled with the zeal of a televangelist, only to never apologise when it collapsed.

“You’re the biggest conspiracy theorist on television,” Kelly proclaimed, noting that the receipts are there for anyone who has had to endure Maddow’s smug lectures over the past decade.

Kelly added that while Maddow “should be fired for insubordination and disparaging the network publicly,” MSNBC’s execs are too spineless to touch her.

“They won’t fire her because they’re a bunch of pussies,” Kelly further emphasised, predicting that the network doesn’t have the “testicular fortitude” to clap back at the rogue anchor.

As we earlier highlighted, Reid’s exit has sparked a separate feud, with fired CNN loser Don Lemon telling Kelly to “go fuck yourself” for celebrating the cancellation. MSNBC is a dumpster fire circus, and Kelly is playing ringmaster, gleefully exposing the clownery.

*  *  *

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Texas Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller released a shocking statement on Tuesday about a Texas rancher blown up by an improvised explosive device planted by cartel terrorists near the US-Mexico border. 

“A tragic and alarming incident occurred near Brownsville, Texas, where a US citizen and Texas rancher was killed by an improvised explosive device (IED). This shocking act of violence highlights the growing threat posed by cartel activity along our southern border,” Miller wrote in a statement. 

He continued:

I urge all Texas farmers, ranchers, and agricultural workers who travel to Mexico or operate near the border to exercise extreme caution. The Lower Rio Grande Valley (LRGV) is a crucial part of Texas agriculture, and the safety of our agricultural community is of utmost importance. We cannot overlook the rising violence that threatens not only lives but also the security of our farms, ranches, and rural communities.

I encourage everyone in the agricultural industry to stay vigilant, remain aware of their surroundings, and report any suspicious activity to law enforcement. Additionally, you can avoid dirt roads and remote areas, refrain from touching unfamiliar objects that could be explosive devices, limit travel to daylight hours, stay on main roads, and avoid cartel-controlled regions. Our agriculture family is the backbone of Texas, and we must do everything we can to protect it.”

Miller’s office spoke with NewsNation about the IED attack that occurred earlier this month. Officials stated that rancher Antonio Cespedes Saldierna, who operated on both sides of the border, was killed when his truck struck the explosive device on a dirt road.

NEW: Texas border rancher k*lled by a suspected cartel IED at the Southern Border, according to the Texas Department of Agriculture.

74-year-old Rancher Antonio Céspedes Saldierna was driving on his ranch when the explosive detonated.

According to the New York Post, Saldierna… pic.twitter.com/PZyY8isbgJ

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) February 25, 2025

Also killed was Horacio Lopez Pena. Ninfa Griselda Ortega, Lopez’s wife, was hospitalized with severe injuries. 

Texas Land Commissioner Dawn Buckingham issued a separate statement emphasizing that these violent acts should be condemned at the highest level.

Last month, the US State Department issued the highest-level travel warning for some Mexican towns next to the US–Mexico border due to high risks of IEDs, gun battles, kidnappings, and other chaos.

Drug cartels, including Tren de Aragua, Mara Salvatrucha, Cartel de Sinaloa, Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generacion, Carteles Unidos, Cartel del Noreste, Cartel del Golfo, and La Nueva Familia Michoacana, were recently designated as “foreign terrorist organizations” by the State Department as our latest reporting only suggests the Trump administration will destroy the command and control centers of these cartels responsible for the drug death overdose crisis in America that kills 100,000 per year. 

US equity futures are higher, reversing much of yesterday’s drop, and European bourses are at all time high, as the market braces for NVDA earnings after today’s close. As of 7:30am, S&P futures are up 0.6% while Nasdaq futures jump 0.8% as all Mag7 names are higher premarket ex-AAPL, while NVDA rises 2.6% aiding the bid for Semis and signaling a rebound on Wall Street after Tuesday’s drop, fueled by a weaker-than-expected consumer confidence print that stirred fears of an economic downturn. Bond yields are 1-2bps higher but with little reaction to the House passing the blueprint for the next budget that is likely to materially increase the deficit.  President Trump is set to meet Zelenskiy this week to sign an agreement giving the US control over half of the war-battered country’s natural resources. Elsewhere, China plans to start re-capitalizing several of its biggest banks in the coming months while BP announced it will increase its oil and gas production. The global risk-on tone is not extending to commodities where there is weakness across all 3 complexes. To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be Nvidia’s earnings after the US close; data releases include US new home sales for January.

In premarket trading, Super Micro Computer soars 25% after the company filed its 10-K for the period ending June 30, 2024, meeting a deadline for submitting outstanding financial reports to regain compliance and stay listed on the Nasdaq. Nvidia is leading premarket gains among the Mag 7 before its much-anticipated fourth-quarter results (Nvidia +2.4%, Tesla +2.0%, Amazon +1.1%, Meta Platforms +1.03%, Alphabet 0.8%, Microsoft +0.6%, Apple -0.5%). Power and electrical equipment companies are trading higher after a report said Meta (+1.03%) was in discussions to build a new data center campus for its AI projects that could cost more than $200 billion (SES AI +7.3%, NANO Nuclear Energy +6.6%, Oklo +7.0%, Vistra +3.7%, Celestica +4.3%, Vertiv +3.1%, Constellation Energy +1.8%, nVent Electric +0.5%). Here are some other notable premarket movers:

• Axon (AXON US) shares jump 16% after the maker of Tasers and body cameras gave a forecast for 2025 that beat analyst expectations. Analysts said that the update alleviated recent concerns over growing competition.
• Workday (WDAY US) shares climb 12% after the human-resources software company reported fourth-quarter results that beat expectations and gave a forecast.
• Intuit (INTU US) shares rise 8.7% after the tax-software company reported second-quarter results that beat expectations and affirmed its outlook. Morgan Stanley upgrades its rating to overweight.
• Lucid (LCID US) shares jump 1.5% after the electric-vehicle maker reported revenue for the fourth quarter that beat the average analyst estimate. The company will begin a search for a new leader after Chief Executive Officer Peter Rawlinson stepped aside to serve as an adviser.
• Cava (CAVA US) shares rise 1.2% after the Mediterranean restaurant chain reported fourth-quarter adjusted Ebitda and comparable sales that came ahead of estimates.
• Freeport-McMoRan (FCX US) shares advance 5.5% after US President Donald Trump signed an executive order that may open the door to tariffs on copper.
• Porch Group (PRCH US) shares soar 40% after the home-services software company reported its fourth-quarter results and gave an outlook.
• Flywire (FLYW US) shares sink 30% after the global payments enablement and software company reported fourth-quarter revenue that missed estimates. Deutsche Bank and BTIG downgraded their recommendations on the stock to a hold-equivalent rating, with the former viewing the full-year forecast as “disappointing.”

All eyes are on Nvidia todaywhich will report after the US market close. The result could determine Wall Street’s direction, especially for the technology sector, after recent months showed AI computing adoption won’t be a straight path. Options data imply share moves of about 10% in either direction around the report.

“The reality is, we need a good set of numbers from Nvidia to keep this bull track in place in the US,” said Guy Miller, chief market strategist Zurich Insurance Co. “It will be important that the numbers are good and the outlook is good. If it’s a really disappointing reading the market will be vulnerable to a further setback.”

Nvidia’s shares rose about 3% in premarket trading, signaling a recovery from the previous session’s 2.8% drop. Shares in the company are down almost 6% year-to-date, after blistering gains in the past couple of years. The concerns have rippled across the technology sector, pushing the Magnificent Seven group of bellwether tech stocks into correction territory on Tuesday.

Europe’s Stoxx 600 rises 0.8% to a record high, boosted by solid corporate earnings and optimism around a potential peace deal in Ukraine. Anheuser-Busch InBev shares surged the most in more than three years after growth in organic earnings topped estimates. Basic resources also outperform as copper prices rise on Trump’s tariff threat.
Sentiment was also boosted by strong results from a slew of companies including Banco Santander SA, Fresenius SE and Alcon AG while automaker Stellantis slipped on its latest numbers. Here are the biggest movers Wednesday:

• Anheuser-Busch InBev shares jump as much as 9.9%, the biggest intraday advance since October 2021, after the brewer reported fourth-quarter organic adjusted Ebitda that came ahead of estimates
• Fresenius SE shares gain as much as 7.5% after the German health-care group reported its latest earnings and updated guidance, with both 4Q sales and adjusted Ebit slightly ahead of projections
• Wienerberger gains 12%, the biggest daily advance since 2020, after the Austrian brick and roof-tile maker reported in-line earnings which Stifel says might mark the beginning of the end of a difficult period
• Novonesis gains as much as 5.6%, the most since June, after the Danish biopharma company reported its latest earnings which analysts see as solid and should reassure after some investor caution
• Adecco jumps as much as 6.1% after its results beat expectations. RBC Capital Markets analysts say the sector is approaching the trough, noting improved momentum seen in early 2025
• JDE Peet’s rises as much as 8.2%, the most in four months, after annual results were ahead of expectations. Jefferies said consensus may nudge higher following a “reassuring” outlook
• European mining shares are the best-performing sector on the Stoxx 600 as copper futures surged after President Donald Trump ordered the US Commerce Department to examine possible import tariffs
• Stellantis shares fall as much as 5.8% in Milan after the carmaker posted 2025 margin guidance that analysts called light, as questions around new leadership, tariffs and dealer inventories persist
• Wolters Kluwer sinks as much as 10%, the steepest intraday drop since 2020, after the Dutch information-services provider reported results that Morgan Stanley analysts described as a “mixed bag”
• Hikma falls as much as 12%, the most since 2017, after the UK drugmaker reported earnings. While the company met expectations, Panmure Liberum says the merely in-line print might not be enough
• ASMI shares fall as much as 4.1% as the Dutch chip equipment maker reported fourth quarter orders that missed estimates, driven by lower demand from Chinese clients
• Saab falls as much as 4.6% after it was reported US will ban the sale and use of US-made military components, parts, systems or technology for Saab’s Gripen fighter jets destined for Colombia
• Novartis shares drop as much as 2.8% after the Sandoz family sold a roughly 1.2% stake in the Swiss pharmaceutical group for CHF2.6 billion through an accelerated placement at a discount

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks were set to gain for the first time in three days after equities in mainland China and Hong Kong staged a strong rally amid a slew of positive developments. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 0.9%. Hong Kong shares rallied strongly, after Chinese AI platform DeepSeek reopened access to its core programming interface after nearly a three-week suspension. Chinese e-commerce giants Alibaba and Meituan were among the top contributors as a meeting between the regulator and some firms was seen as promoting fair competition and improving the market environment. Bank stocks climbed following a Bloomberg News report that China plans to start re-capitalizing several of its biggest lenders in coming months, following through on a broad stimulus package unveiled last year to shore up the struggling economy. Elsewhere, Thailand’s benchmark equity index jumped more than 2% after its central bank unexpectedly cut rates. Equities in Japan fell while Indian markets was shut for a holiday.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index halves a 0.2% advance as chances for early action on Trump’s tax cut plans improved after House Republicans passed a budget blueprint; month-end flows into the Tokyo fix offered support, also boosted by chances for early action on Donald Trump’s tax cut plans after House Republicans passed a budget blueprint.  EUR/USD slips 0.1% to 1.0500, versus 1.0487-1.0525 day range; euro struggles near year-to-date highs and the latest rejection opens up risk for a correction as the volatility skew remains in favor of the greenback across the curve. USD/JPY rises as much as 0.4% to 149.63, before halving the advance; focus on Friday’s Tokyo CPI data. GBP/USD down 0.1% at 1.2656, versus 1.2636 day low; BOE rate-setter Swati Dhingra set to speak.

In bond markets, treasuries halt a five-day rally after House Republicans passed a budget blueprint; Treasury yields rose across the curve with 10-year yields around 4.305% or ~1bp cheaper on the day, trailing bunds and gilts in the sector by 3bp-4bp; front-end underperformance flattens 2s10s spread by ~1bp. 10-year yield initially rose by as much as 4bps before losing traction and steadying after an 11-basis-point decline overnight took it to the lowest level since mid-December. Price action unwinds a portion of Tuesday’s steep flight-to-quality gains spurred in part by soft data and helped by strong demand for 5-year note auction. European government bonds climb, led by OATs with French 10-year yields falling 4 bps to 3.16%. German 10-year borrowing costs fall 2 bps to 2.43%. Money markets have raised their bets on Federal Reserve policy easing, and now price more than two quarter-point interest-rate reductions in 2025. Treasury’s $44b 7-year note auction follows strong demand for 2- and 5-year note sales earlier this week; the WI 7-year yield at ~4.24% is ~22bp richer than January’s, which stopped through by 0.9bp

In commodities, copper futures surged after the latest tariff threat, while gold traded just off the latest all-time high hit on Monday. Spot gold is flat near $2,915/oz. Bitcoin also steadies at around $89,000. Oil prices are treading water, with WTI near $69 a barrel.

Looking at today’s calendar, US economic data calendar includes January new home sales and building permits (10am). Fed speaker slate also includes Barkin (8:30am) and Bostic (12pm)

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures up 0.5% to 5,999.25
• STOXX Europe 600 up 0.8% to 558.39
• MXAP up 0.6% to 188.96
• MXAPJ up 1.2% to 596.29
• Nikkei down 0.2% to 38,142.37
• Topix down 0.3% to 2,716.40
• Hang Seng Index up 3.3% to 23,787.93
• Shanghai Composite up 1.0% to 3,380.21
• Sensex up 0.2% to 74,602.12
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.1% to 8,240.68
• Kospi up 0.4% to 2,641.09
• German 10Y yield little changed at 2.44%
• Euro down 0.2% to $1.0497
• Brent Futures up 0.3% to $73.23/bbl
• Gold spot up 0.0% to $2,915.54
• US Dollar Index up 0.14% to 106.46

Top Overnight News

• President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Tuesday instructing the Department of Commerce to investigate whether to impose tariffs on copper and derivative products, key industrial materials, in order to protect national security. This sets the stage for more trade friction with Canada and Mexico, as well as Chile and Peru. Politico
• Ukraine and Washington have struck a minerals rights deal, and Zelensky is expected to travel to Washington later in the week for a signing ceremony w/Trump. NYT
• House Republicans approved a budget framework for President Donald Trump’s sweeping domestic policy agenda Tuesday — a major victory for Speaker Mike Johnson who worked with Trump and fellow leaders in a chaotic last-ditch effort to win over naysayers within the GOP ranks. Politico
• US President Trump said will begin a program to sell ‘Trump gold cards’ for USD 5mln for foreigners who want to come to the US and create jobs with the sale of gold cards to start in about two weeks.
• The US House Ways and Means Committee has reportedly had discussions about options like ratcheting up taxes on public companies’ stock buybacks or adjusting limits on deducting executive pay, according to sources cited by Punchbowl. “Proposals such as raising endowment taxes on universities and significant cuts to clean energy tax credits are being viewed as even more likely”
• Super Micro (SMCI +21% premkt)  shares surged premarket after it filed documentation to become compliant with Nasdaq rules. BBG
• China plans to inject at least $55 billion into three of its biggest banks, people familiar said. The plan may be completed as soon as June and follows through on a broad stimulus package unveiled in 2024. BBG
• Hong Kong Financial Secretary Paul Chan forecasts 2%-3% GDP growth in 2025, as he looks to shrink the city’s deficit. Stamp duty will be lowered for some cheap homes, he said in his budget speech. The government will also invest in AI and cut about 10,000 civil service jobs. BBG
• Thailand’s central bank unexpectedly cut its policy rate by 25bp to 2% (the consensus was anticipating rates staying unchanged). WSJ
• Ukraine latest: French Finance Minister Eric Lombard said he believes the US has agreed to provide backup for European troops after a ceasefire. Budget airlines Ryanair and Wizz are already jostling to introduce routes ahead of any deal. BBG
• BP will boost oil and gas investment to about $10 billion a year, cut capex spending and boost cost-savings targets. It’s also reviewing its Castrol business, possibly worth as much as $10 billion if it were sold.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mixed as a tech rally in China offset the weak handover from Wall St where the Nasdaq led the declines once again and risk appetite was sapped by weak consumer confidence data. ASX 200 was led lower by weakness in mining, materials and consumer staples as participants digested disappointing Construction Work data which feeds into Australia’s GDP and with supermarket operator Woolworths pressured post-earnings. Nikkei 225 fell beneath the 38,000 level for the first time this year with the index underperforming following recent currency strength although was off worst levels as the yen then pared some of its recent advances. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp gained with Hong Kong leading the advances amid tech strength and recent earnings, while Hong Kong continued to record a higher deficit for this year in the Budget and will increase the scale of bond issuances.

Top Asian News

• China to reportedly start recapitalizing banks with at least USD 55bln, according to Bloomberg sources.
• Chinese President Xi urged to maintain stability across and calmly address domestic and international challenges.
• Hong Kong Financial Secretary delivered the Budget address and noted Hong Kong continues to record a higher budget deficit this year and will increase the scale of bond issuance, while the government aims to reduce accumulated expenditure by 7% in the fiscal year 2027-2028. Hong Kong’s government announced a reduction in salaries tax payable by 100% capped at HKD 1,500 and the HKMA is to launch a new CNY 100bln facility for renminbi trade financing liquidity support for banks.
• China’s NFRA and NDRC held a meeting on additional support for private firms; NFRA is to increase support for tech and private companies, according to Bloomberg. Has vowed to optimise the equity investment environment.

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.8%) opened stronger across the board and have continued to slowly grind higher as the session progressed; currently at highs. European sectors hold a strong positive bias; Basic Resources is by far the clear outperformer, lifted by strength in metals prices (amid US Commerce Secretary Lutnick’s copper comments). Media and Telecoms are both hampered by post-earning losses in Wolters Kluwer (-5%) and Deutsche Telekom (-3.8%) respectively.

Top European News

• BRC warned 160k part-time retail jobs are at risk of being axed over the next 3 years due to higher employer taxes announced in the Budget and regulatory changes.
• EU Commission proposes to mobilise EUR 100bln of funding to support EU-made “clean” manufacturing; EUR 1bln from current budget will be part of guarantees.

FX

• USD is attempting to claw back Tuesday’s losses which were in part triggered by the ongoing pullback in US yields with the latest leg lower led by a disappointing Consumer Confidence print. Elsewhere, events on Capitol Hill are increasingly in focus after the US House passed the Republican budget blueprint for advancing the Trump agenda and sent the measure to the Senate. DXY has ventured as high as 106.55 vs. Tuesday’s 106.78 peak. Note, if DXY reverses course, the YTD low sits at 106.16.
• EUR is marginally softer vs. the USD. Aside from ongoing focus for the bloc on efforts to fund the EU’s increased defence needs, macro drivers are relatively light. This morning’s GFK consumer sentiment data fell short of expectations, however, this has been largely shrugged off given the need to see how the coalition building process in Germany develops. EUR/USD is currently pivoting around the 1.05 mark.
• USD/JPY hit a fresh YTD low overnight at 148.56 in the aftermath of yesterday’s risk-averse moves in the US which acted as a drag on US yields. Fresh macro drivers out of Japan are lacking and therefore the USD leg of the equation may remain the driving force for the pair in the near-term. USD/JPY has ventured as high as 149.63 with focus on a potential reclaim of the 150 level.
• GBP marginally softer vs. the USD and flat vs. the EUR. Fresh macro drivers for the UK are lacking aside from yesterday’s announced increase in defence spending which is ultimately not set to move the dial on the fiscal front given that money from elsewhere will be reassigned to fund it. Cable is currently contained within Tuesday’s 1.2606-78 range, ahead of BoE’s Dhingra.
• Antipodeans are both softer vs. the broadly stronger USD. AUD/USD is now down for a fourth consecutive session after printing a YTD peak on Feb 21st at 0.6408. Overnight data saw disappointing Construction Work data (which feeds into Australia’s GDP) and an in-line print for monthly CPI (Weighted CPI YY 2.50% vs. Exp. 2.50%, Prev. 2.50%).
• Deutsche Bank month-end model: a reasonable shift towards USD buying, most pronounced vs European equities and as such points toward EUR/USD supply.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1732 vs exp. 7.2526 (prev. 7.1726).

Fixed Income

• An upward bias is present, though USTs remain in the red, a move off lows which began in the European morning despite a lack of specific drivers at the time and was potentially a function of a bout of pressure in the crude space weighing on yields. As it stands, USTs are at the mid-point of a 110-08 to 110-19+ band and while they have been in the green on a few occasions the moves have been fleeting at best and minimal in nature. Today’s session is largely a waiting game until the after-hours numbers from NVIDIA. However, we do get Fed’s Barkin & Bostic alongside a 7yr auction and more executive orders from POTUS beforehand.
• Bunds are firmer, picked up in the early European morning in tandem with the mentioned move in USTs. Aside from energy dynamics, drivers behind the move at the time were limited. Since, with newsflow quiet and despite a pick-up in the crude benchmarks, EGBs remain in the green and just off best. Specifically, Bunds picked up from a 132.24 base to opening levels of 132.47 in the early morning and then extended to a 132.76 peak after the cash open. Ahead traders will keep an eye out for remarks from French President Macron who is set to provide other EU leaders with a summary of his meeting with US President Trump. No move to the 2038/2036 Bund auctions.
• Gilts are in-fitting with EGBs. UK specifics have been very light so far as we await UK PM Starmer’s PMQs appearance for fresh insight into the defence spending increase he announced on Tuesday and details ahead of his US trip on Thursday. Gilts at the upper-end of a 93.07 to 93.48 band.
• Germany sells EUR 1.252bln vs Exp. EUR 1.5bln 1.00% 2038 and EUR 400mln vs exp 500mln 0.00% 2036 Bunds

Commodities

• Choppy trade across the crude complex once again after prices tumbled on Tuesday as soft consumer confidence data added fears to the demand side of the equation. Newsflow for the complex has been light this morning, although a mild dip was seen around the time Trafigura’s Global Oil Head Lockock suggested the oil market is pricing out geopolitical risk, and that OPEC will be pragmatic in its approach to oil supply. Brent Apr in a USD 72.40-72.81/bbl parameter.
• Upward bias across precious metals in what is seemingly a recovery of recent losses and come despite the firmer Dollar this morning. Spot gold resumed its gradual rebound from yesterday’s trough with the precious metal back above the USD 2,900/oz level.
• Copper futures continue to be underpinned following a power surge in Chile which affected all of state miner Codelco’s mines and prompted a state of emergency declaration, while prices were further boosted overnight on reports that the Trump administration will investigate the possible imposition of tariffs to rebuild the US copper industry. 3M LME copper trades on either side of USD 9,500/t in a USD 9,454.90-9,558.00/t range.
• US Private Inventory Data: Crude -0.6mln (exp. +2.6mln), Distillate -1.1mln (exp. -1.5mln), Gasoline +0.5mln (exp. -0.9mln), Cushing +1.2mln..
• Serbia’s increases crude oil and fuel reserves to supply market for at least three months, according to the energy minister.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• Mediators in Egypt and Qatar with the US administration are reportedly pushing towards the start of negotiations for the second phase of the Gaza agreement”, according to Palestinian sources cited by Al-Sharq
• Egypt Investment Minister says the details of the Gaza plan will be decided on the 4th of March.
• Israeli air force targeted military bases of the former Syrian army and destroyed “weapons means” in Damascus, while Israel’s Defence Minister said they will not allow a repeat of the experience of southern Lebanon in southern Syria and will not allow the stationing of Syrian forces in the buffer zone.
• Hamas appointed new commanders and is regrouping its military forces for a potential return to fighting with Israel in Gaza as mediators work to salvage the ceasefire that expires this weekend, according to WSJ.
• US Secretary of State Rubio and Saudi Arabia’s Defence Minister discussed ways to promote peace and stability in Syria, while they also discussed ways to promote peace and stability in Lebanon, Gaza, and across the region
• Israel is said to be pursuing an indefinite extension to the first phase Gaza ceasefire rather than moving to a planned second stage meant to end the conflict, according to FT sources.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Russia’s Kremlin says expert-level talks with the US are being prepared; no current plans for a US President Trump/ Russian President Putin call, but may take place if necessary; still interested in implementing economic cooperation in “different” areas.
• US President Trump said Ukrainian President Zelensky would like to sign a minerals deal with him, while Trump stated that they have pretty much negotiated their deal on rare earths and would like to get access to Russian rare earths.
• Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov says they don’t consider the option of European troops deployment in Ukraine.

Geopolitics: Taiwan

• Taiwan dispatches forces after China announces ‘shooting’ drills off island, says Taipei defence ministry via AFP

US Event Calendar

• Jan. Building Permits MoM, prior 0.1%
• Jan. Building Permits, prior 1.48m
• 07:00: Feb. MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -6.6%
• 10:00: Jan. New Home Sales MoM, est. -2.6%, prior 3.6%
• 10:00: Jan. New Home Sales, est. 680,000, prior 698,000

Central Banks

• 08:30: Fed’s Barkin Repeats Speech on Inflation
• 12:00: Fed’s Bostic Speaks on Economic Outlook, Housing

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Markets saw another decent risk-off move over the last 24 hours, as concerns about the US economic outlook continued to mount. There wasn’t a single catalyst, but there’s been some disappointing US data recently, and yesterday we found out that the Conference Board’s consumer confidence indicator hit an 8-month low. By the close, no asset class was immune from the slump, with equities losing ground, credit spreads widening, bond yields falling, and commodities selling off too. In fact, it’s now been the biggest 4-day decline for the S&P 500 since early September, and the Magnificent 7 was back in technical correction territory, having now shed more than -10% since their peak back in December. So that’s heightening the focus on Nvidia’s earnings after the US close tonight. Meanwhile for Bitcoin (-5.59%), it was the biggest daily fall since early September.

In terms of yesterday’s developments, it had looked like markets would start to stabilise again, with the S&P 500 broadly flat at the time of the US open. But a more negative tone quickly began to develop, particularly after the Conference Board’s indicator fell to just 98.3 in February (vs. 102.5 expected), making it the biggest slump on the previous month (-7pts) since August 2021, back when inflation was starting to surge and the delta variant of Covid was spreading. Moreover, the labour market indicators also worsened a bit, with the difference between those saying jobs were plentiful and hard to get down to a net 17.1%, which is the weakest since October. So collectively, this added to concerns that the US economy was slowing, a bit like we saw moving into last summer.

With all that in hand, US equities saw a decent slump yesterday, with a notable underperformance relative to Europe. For instance, the S&P 500 was down -0.47%, posting a 4th consecutive decline for the first time since the new year, and that was actually a recovery from an intraday low of -1.25%. The declines were concentrated among big tech stocks, with the Magnificent 7 (-2.25%) moving into correction territory, led by a -8.39% slump for Tesla as its European sales fell -45% year-on-year in January. By contrast, most of the S&P 500’s constituents actually put in a steady performance, with the equal-weighted index (+0.13%) eking out a second consecutive gain, whilst the Dow Jones was up +0.37%. So this wasn’t a broad-based decline.

On the rates side, the weaker data led markets to dial up their expectations for Fed rate cuts this year. So by the close, futures were pricing in 57.5bps of cuts by the December meeting, up +7.8bps on the day. Bear in mind the FOMC’s most recent dot plot in December only had 50bps of cuts pencilled in, so that’s the first time since the dot plot was released that the market is pricing a more dovish path than the Fed have signalled. And with investors growing more confident about rate cuts, that led to a significant decline in Treasury yields across the curve. For instance, the 2yr yield (-8.0bps) fell back to 4.10%, its lowest level since October, whilst the 10yr yield (-10.6bps) fell to 4.29%, its lowest since early December.

The risk-off tone was clear more broadly, with pretty much every asset class affected by the moves. Commodities took a particular hit given fears about economic demand, and Brent crude oil prices fell back to their lowest since December, at $73.02/bbl, whilst Bloomberg’s Commodity Spot Index (-0.67%) fell back for a third day running. In credit, US HY spreads moved up +5bps to 277bps, their widest in six weeks. And in the FX space, investors moved into havens, with the Japanese Yen moving up to its strongest level against the US dollar since October, whilst the Swiss Franc was another outperformer, strengthening +0.47% against the US Dollar. In the meantime, Bitcoin closed at a 3-month low of $88,702, leaving it -16.94% beneath its closing peak on January 21.

Elsewhere yesterday, there was significant news on European defence, as the UK announced that defence spending would increase to 2.5% of GDP from 2027, funded by a cut to overseas aid spending. Prime Minister Starmer also announced an aim to reach 3% in the next parliament (expected 2029-34). Meanwhile in Germany, discussions continued over a defence package, although CDU leader Friedrich Merz said he could “neither confirm nor deny” whether €200bn of additional investment in defence was being discussed. He also said that talks on a coalition with the SPD were already underway. Lastly in the US, there were also developments on the fiscal side, as the House of Representatives passed the Republican budget resolution. That includes $4.5tn of tax cuts, along with $2tn in spending cuts over the next decade. It only passed by 217-215, with just one Republican voting against, reflecting the Republicans’ narrow majority in the new Congress.

Amidst the prospect of higher spending, European equities put in a mixed performance yesterday. The STOXX 600 moved up +0.15%, closing just over half a percent beneath its all-time high from last week. But there was some divergence across the continent, with Germany’s DAX (-0.07%) and France’s CAC 40 (-0.49%) both losing ground, whilst Italy’s FTSE MIB (+0.63%) and Spain’s IBEX 35 (+0.80%) both advanced. German mid-caps continued to outperform though, with the MDAX index up +0.60%, and Rheinmetall (+0.15%) also saw a modest gain. Otherwise, there was a more consistent performance for sovereign bonds, which rallied across the continent. UK gilts saw the strongest performance, with the 10yr yield down -5.5bps, but yields on 10yr bunds (-1.9bps), OATs (-2.9bps) and BTPs (-3.0bps) also fell back.

Overnight in Asia, we’ve seen markets put in a stronger performance again, with the Hang Seng surging by +3.18%. That leaves its YTD gains at +18.47%, making it the top performer among the major global equity indices so far in 2025. Otherwise, there’ve also been gains for the Shanghai Comp (+0.75%), the CSI 300 (+0.44%) and the KOSPI (+0.36%). And looking forward, US equity futures have recovered as well, with those on the S&P 500 up +0.38%. However, Japanese equities are the main outlier, with the Nikkei down -0.70% after the yen closed at its strongest level in four months against the US Dollar yesterday, at 149.03. And in Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 (-0.14%) has also lost ground, despite the CPI data for January coming in slightly softer than expected at +2.5% (vs. +2.6% expected).

To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be Nvidia’s earnings after the US close. Otherwise, central bank speakers include the Fed’s Barkin and Bostic, along with the BoE’s Dhingra. And data releases include US new home sales for January.

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine prescriptions “soared far above” levels before the COVID-19 pandemic, according to a new study.

Researchers from the University of California – Los Angeles (UCLA) and other institutions said that nearly 3 million ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine prescriptions were issued during the pandemic, totaling some $272 million, according to a news release issued on Feb. 20.

The dispensing of ivermectin “from US pharmacies was nearly 1,000 percent higher than prepandemic rates,” the study said.

Usage of the two drugs was three times higher in people aged 65 and older, compared with people aged 18 to 64, according to the study published in the Health Affairs journal. Patients aged 65 and older represented 25 percent of adults in the study but constituted more than 59 percent of COVID-19-linked ivermectin usage and 68 percent of COVID-19-related hydroxychloroquine use, it found.

Hydroxychloroquine prescriptions and usage peaked in March 2020, when the pandemic started in the United States, to 133 percent of pre-pandemic rates, the UCLA news release said.

Meanwhile, ivermectin use increased dramatically throughout 2020 and 2021, the researchers noted. By August 2021, prescriptions for the drug had shot to more than 10 times higher than before the pandemic.

But after the COVID-19-specific medications, such as Pfizer’s Paxlovid, became more widely available, prescriptions for both hydroxychloroquine and ivermectin dropped some 93 percent. That drop took place between March 1, 2022, and June 30, 2023, they noted.

“Ivermectin use in particular was higher among people living in the most socially vulnerable neighborhoods and markedly higher in the southern United States,” they stated.

However, the “limited availability of COVID-19 medications does not appear to explain” what they described as a “wide geographic variation in ivermectin prescribing” such as in the South.

John Mafi, a senior study author with UCLA, said their findings “underscore the urgent need for policy reforms to combat misinformation and mistrust in scientific institutions,” asserting that “eliminating undue industry influence in government, enhancing transparency around scientific uncertainty, and earmarking public funding for clinical trials of new drugs are good places to start.”

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) said that it has not authorized ivermectin for use against COVID-19 and that it has received multiple reports of people using ivermectin that was designed for animals. The agency said that it has received no evidence to suggest that ivermectin, which is approved as an anti-parasitic medication, is effective against COVID-19.

However, some studies have shown that ivermectin has led to positive outcomes for some people who took the drug for COVID-19, including one study that showed it led to “large reductions” in deaths from the virus.

The FDA in 2020 warned against using hydroxychloroquine, an anti-malaria drug, to treat COVID-19 outside of hospitals or clinical trials and said it revoked its emergency use authorization to use the medication as well as chloroquine to treat COVID-19 in some hospitalized individuals.

At least one study, published in mid-2020, had shown that the drug had lowered the U.S. death rate, while one early survey touted its effectiveness.

In the UCLA paper, researchers evaluated 8.1 million insured patients from across the United States to evaluate spending and usage of the two drugs in the first three years of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Based on their analysis, they wrote that “an estimated 3,037,751 COVID-19-associated prescriptions for hydroxychloroquine and ivermectin totaling an estimated $271,559,207 in spending were provided in US outpatient settings throughout the public health emergency,” according to the study, which was funded by the Commonwealth Foundation and the National Institutes of Health.

The findings was published just days after Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was sworn in as the U.S. health secretary.

Among other criticisms directed at the FDA, Kennedy last year wrote that the agency is “biased against many low-cost” or generic drugs such as ivermectin and said that large pharmaceutical companies are involved in the FDA’s decision-making processes.