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Americans Remain In Dark Over Origins Of Mysterious Drones

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Americans Remain In Dark Over Origins Of Mysterious Drones

Authored by Janice Hisle via The Epoch Times,

For the past decade, Jennifer Krazinski felt safe living in a home “tucked away, off of a dirt road,” in Hewitt, a northern New Jersey suburb.

But what she recently saw in the night sky left her disquieted.

Near her house, Krazinski noticed flying objects with blinking red-and-white lights, emitting a whirring sound.

After three consecutive nights in mid-December 2024, “I stopped looking for them because it just was overwhelming,” she told The Epoch Times. “This makes me uneasy.”

Krazinski worried that someone was using drones to collect information for some nefarious purpose. But she decided against alerting authorities already inundated with similar reports of apparent drone sightings.

Weeks later, specific answers elude Krazinski and thousands of other Americans who spotted Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP).

Reports came from at least a half-dozen U.S. states since mid-November 2024 and sparked a wave of concern.

After government officials and drone experts gave non-threatening explanations for nearly all the sightings, the hoopla over so-called “mystery drones” dissipated. However, questions lingered.

President-elect Donald Trump has promised that, soon after his Jan. 20 inauguration, he will release more details about the drone sightings; he said it was “ridiculous” that federal officials had been so tight-lipped.

Because of the attention, the public is more aware of drones—a plus for U.S. drone-makers and sellers.

Drone industry leaders also say the incidents underscore an ongoing dilemma: How to balance security needs and airspace-use restrictions against the drive to innovate drone capabilities and uses?

The need to fine-tune drone regulations and procedures is becoming more critical, considering how fast the industry is growing, experts said.

The Skyfall Vampire drone and SHRIKE FPV drone from Ukraine are displayed in the Ukrainian technology pavilion at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas on Jan. 7, 2025. Patrick T. Fallon/AFP via Getty Images

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) had registered more than 1 million drones as of last month.

And drone use is expected to continue surging.

Worldwide drone sales now total about $30 billion per year; in 10 years, that figure could burgeon to nearly $224 billion, according to Fact.MR’s market research.

Allan Evans, CEO of Unusual Machines, an Orlando-based drone technology company, told The Epoch Times that the spate of sightings dramatically changed Americans’ perceptions of drones.

The incidents also exposed “a really big gap in airspace management:” a need to better identify, track, and coordinate drone use,” Evans said.

“And people are interested in solving that, rather than just dismissing drones as toys … a novelty item.”

People also are now interested in figuring out “how to organize and use these tools and handle concerns over them being used the wrong way,” Evans said, calling the “toys-to-tools” drones perception “a major shift” in American society.

He cited another realization that has settled in: “I think it’s the first time we’re like, ‘Oh yeah, okay, drones are everywhere all the time.’”

Unusual Machines, which strongly focuses on the consumer drone market, attracted a lot of first-time buyers this past year, Evans said.

Although sales data were not yet releasable, Evans said the drone sightings seemed to have stoked much of the new enthusiasm.

Evans and three other industry professionals told The Epoch Times that citizens and government leaders are justifiably concerned about UAP sightings and drone activities.

However, they also cautioned against jumping to conclusions or panicking based on flawed, distorted, or limited information.

These experts addressed inaccurate claims about drones and suggested how government agencies might handle drone-related issues better.

About the Sightings

Gabriel Garcia, technical director for SPS Aerial Remote Sensing, a Texas company specializing in counter-drone technology, said he thinks people were filing a lot of false reports, unintentionally.

People who are unfamiliar with the nighttime appearance of various aircraft may have misidentified some crewed aircraft as unmanned drones, he said.

Many types of aircraft, including drones, are equipped with white, red, and green lights to aid navigation and avoid collisions. Numerous witnesses reported seeing these lights on the unidentified objects.

Garcia believes authorities know a significant amount of information about the suspected drones.

That’s because the FAA requires drones to be equipped with “a sort of virtual license plate,” which broadcasts a traceable signal, Garcia noted.

That signal provides a lot of data, he said, including GPS coordinates of the drone’s pilot, timestamped actions, altitude, and speed.

Some of the aircraft that aroused suspicions may have been flown by operators who were ignorant of regulations or careless about drone use, Garcia said.

Concerned citizens wondered why authorities didn’t “just shoot them down” to examine them. But Garcia said that would be unsafe, unnecessary, and illegal without special permission.

The Red Cat ARACHNID family of drone systems: (L–R) Black Widow, FlightWave Edge 130, and FANG displayed in a company-provided photo. Red Cat Holdings

First, there’s a “grave risk” that innocent people can be injured by ammunition gone astray or falling debris, Garcia said.

Federal law forbids damaging or disabling aircraft, including drones; violations carry heavy penalties. However, police in Long Island, New York, late last year obtained authority to shoot down the drones.

Rather than shoot the drones, authorities can remotely take over control of a drone. “They can tell it where to go and where to land with a much, much safer outcome,” Garcia said.

Another misconception is that some of the drones were reportedly bus-sized.

Jeff Thompson, CEO of Red Cat Holdings, a Department of Defense (DOD) drone contractor in Nevada, said: “There’s not a drone configuration out there that can make a small bus fly like a small drone you see at the beach; that just doesn’t exist.”

Thompson told The Epoch Times that the inaccurate description took hold because “everyone just started repeating it, and it became like a thing, even though it wasn’t true.”

Demonstration of technology used to detect, track, and identify unauthorized drones crossing the U.S.–Mexico border. Courtesy of SPS Aerial Remote Sensing and TrellisWare

‘Not Enemy Drones’

Many people wondered aloud whether foreign adversaries deployed the suspected drone swarms as a spy operation. Thompson refuted that notion.

“These are not enemy drones,” Thompson said. “There’s no way it was an enemy. They wouldn’t put on FAA lighting … that’s just ridiculous—or they’re the dumbest enemy.”

Drones used for reconnaissance or other military missions fly without lights, he said; these drones are even undetectable by a person wearing night-vision goggles.

“Our drones are stealth, and you want them stealth,” Thompson said.

Robert Newcomb, a Utah-based weapons engineer and DOD contractor who works with drones, agrees that many UAP reports can be chalked up to misidentifications of manned aircraft or heavenly bodies, such as pulsars—rotating stars.

Based on Newcomb’s career knowledge, the reported objects seem to be “nothing out of the ordinary,” he said.

Newcomb said the sightings didn’t set off alarm bells for him.

“Usually, if it’s going to be a threat, they’re going to act quickly,” he said. The drones caused no apparent harm as they hovered or flitted about the sky for prolonged periods.

Further, Newcomb said, U.S. agencies have capabilities for detecting and engaging threats in airspace.

“Should we be fearful? The answer is a hard ‘no,’” he said. “But there’s a caveat to that.”

A still from a video showing several drones that appear to be flying over Randolph, N.J., on Dec. 4, 2024. MartyA45_ /TMX via AP

Valid Concerns

He is worried about “the unknown threats that have come over the border” in recent years.

“There’s likely hundreds of terrorists in the country who are probably planning nefarious acts,” Newcomb said. “Whether they’re going to use drones or other means, that’s unknown.”

And drones, too, are illegally crossing the U.S.–Mexico border, Garcia said. His company has partnered with certain U.S. agencies to detect, track, and identify unauthorized drones.

“We’re looking at activity happening every single day: Drones crossing the border, drones getting used by the cartels to provide surveillance on border control positions and be able to route the human trafficking operations,” Garcia said.

Technology of any kind can be misused, the experts noted, adding that people are naturally curious about new advances and tend to be leery of them.

“Do you remember when cellphones first had a camera? At the time, there were all kinds of privacy concerns around it,” Evans said.

“But I think it worked out OK, right? Like, there’s always going to be resistance to these changes, and there’s always going to be very valid concerns.”

Initially, people worried that drone operators would be spying on them in their homes.

Noting that drones can be used by law enforcement, hospitals, and package-delivery businesses, Evans said people also are starting to recognize that drone management is “not just an FAA problem.”

Drones are deployed during a demonstration at the Los Angeles Fire Department ahead of DJI’s AirWorks conference in Los Angeles on Sept. 23, 2019. Drones are proving to be a game changer for emergency responders who are increasingly using the technology to spot fires, detect toxic gas, or to locate missing people or suspects, experts say. Robyn Beck/AFP via Getty Images

He said the issue now is “How do these different agencies all coordinate?” ranging from local police to state personnel and the federal government.

New uses for drones are emerging frequently, he said, including transporting a flotation device to a drowning victim.

“But you can’t do it unless there’s rules around doing it and coordinating the airspace,” Evans said, noting that helicopters or other aircraft might also need to fly near such an emergency scene.

“I think you’re going to see more and more really great applications as we get better and better at it.”

Signs of Improvement

Policymakers appear to be heading in the right direction—in a bipartisan manner, Evans said, noting that several proposals have either been approved or are in the works to improve airspace management and tighten security.

On Jan. 2, Michael Robbins, head of a drone industry advocacy group, issued a statement urging federal officials to end U.S. reliance on “unsecure” technologies from Chinese-subsidized companies “and to invest in U.S. and allied products and support security and fair market competition.”

Commenting on proposed new rules governing drones, Robbins, president of the Association for Uncrewed Vehicle Systems International, said: “We stand ready to work closely with the incoming Trump administration to generate a stronger, more secure drone technology supply chain.”

President-elect Donald Trump is slated to take office on Jan. 20; his son, Donald Trump Jr., serves on the advisory board for Evans’ company, which says it is committed to “onshoring U.S. drone component manufacturing.”

Thompson, who founded Unusual Machines and now directs its board, points out that the U.S. government has been combating security concerns about foreigners’ use of drones against the United States.

Many people feared that Chinese-made drones and drone parts might be used to gather intelligence that would jeopardize the United States.

Workers produce drones at a factory in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, on April 13, 2023. STR/AFP via Getty Images

In response, the U.S. government began taking steps in 2018 to end the federal government’s use of Chinese drones and Chinese-made drone parts, he noted.

In 2023, the American Security Drone Act “basically stated that anyone that receives a federal penny cannot buy Chinese drones or parts and has to get rid of what they have,” Thompson said.

Because of drone use in the Ukraine–Russia war, “everyone realizes how important these drones are for war,” Thompson said, “and nobody wants Chinese drones flying around the United States, mapping out the entire infrastructure, because they do actually transmit information back to China servers for you to be able to log onto your drone.”

Experts Offer Suggestions

Still, drone regulations need to be streamlined to ensure progress, the experts agree.

“Our nation’s defense is going to depend on drones going forward,” Thompson said.

Newcomb fears that over-regulation will “stifle innovation … and how the technology advances.”

He suggests that “instead of forcing every drone to be tracked, we just offer an airspace for them to operate in.”

Evans commended the FAA for its emphasis on safety, which enables Americans to travel more safely in an airplane than in a car, federal data and numerous studies show.

Likewise, Evans believes the FAA is “doing a really good job of balancing the need for innovation” against security concerns.

Ukrainian servicemen of the 22nd Brigade launch a Leleka reconnaissance UAV drone near Chasiv Yar on April 27, 2024. Genya Savilov/AFP via Getty Images

“They’re doing a lot of exceptions. They’re doing a lot of test programs. They’re enabling a lot of the exploratory stuff,” he said.

At the same time, the FAA is concerned about avoiding “an overzealous cowboy environment that could lead to really dangerous things, with stuff falling out of the sky,” Evans said.

All four drone experts who spoke to The Epoch Times were unanimous in their recommendations that federal agencies communicate better with each other.

Garcia noted that the FAA “has no authority to take down a drone,” and therefore must rely on help from other federal agencies.

Newcomb said that officials need to answer questions from citizens more directly, rather than deflecting, and they can acknowledge that security concerns prevent them from disclosing certain details.

Garcia and Newcomb emphasized a need for the government to invest more heavily in counter-drone technology.

However, the experts concurred that federal agencies seem to be confronting drone-related concerns more effectively.

“I think we’re on the path to solving it,“ Newcomb said, ”to ensure that our airspace is safe.”

Tyler Durden
Sun, 01/19/2025 – 11:40

The Japanese Have The World’s Longest Life Expectancy

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The Japanese Have The World’s Longest Life Expectancy

Trade significantly impacts a population’s overall health and prosperity, closely linking it to life expectancy.

This graphic, created by Visual Capitalist’s Julia Wendling, in partnership with the Hinrich Foundation, visualizes life expectancy at birth across 29 major economies.

Data is from the United Nations’ Human Development Index (UN HDI).

The analysis comes from the 2024 Sustainable Trade Index (STI), which the Hinrich Foundation produced in collaboration with the IMD World Competitiveness Center.

Data Overview

To create the STI’s lifespan metric, data on life expectancy at birth from the UN HDI were converted into a numerical index score. Scores were averaged for each economy, with a range of 0 to 100. 

A relatively high life expectancy at birth translated into a high (and favorable) STI lifespan score. Conversely, a relatively low life expectancy at birth translated into a low (and thus unfavorable) STI lifespan score.

A country’s openness to trade can determine access to essential resources, including medical supplies, healthcare services, and nutritious food. Furthermore, trade policies shape the availability of educational infrastructure and can either foster or hinder job creation. Both of these factors are critical factors in improving public health and estimated lifespans. 

Japan’s advanced healthcare system, low obesity rates, low crime levels, and active lifestyle have all contributed to the country’s remarkably high life expectancy.

Unsurprisingly, this metric is closely related to GDP per capita. Countries with lower GDP per capita, including Myanmar and Papua New Guinea, tended to have lower life expectancies. Conversely, countries with higher GDP per capita, such as Australia and Singapore, tended to have populations that lived longer.

As one of the only developed countries without Universal Health Coverage, the U.S. is the sole outlier in this dataset. The country has the second highest GDP per capita, yet its lifespan ranking is only at #12.

This infographic provides a preview of the Sustainable Trade Index, which evaluates 30 major economies using 72 economic, societal, and environmental indicators. Download the free report from the Hinrich Foundation.

Tyler Durden
Sun, 01/19/2025 – 11:05

“Make Deal To Protect National Security”: Trump Prepares Executive Order To Save TikTok

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“Make Deal To Protect National Security”: Trump Prepares Executive Order To Save TikTok

Update (1035ET):

President-elect Donald Trump announced on Truth Social that he will issue an executive order on Monday to extend the divest-or-ban deadline and allow enough time for a deal in which the US will have 50% ownership via a joint venture with TikTok’s Chinese-owned parent company ByteDance. 

Trump’s statement was posted on Truth Social on Sunday morning:

I’m asking companies not to let TikTok stay dark! I will issue an executive order on Monday to extend the period of time before the law’s prohibitions take effect, so that we can make a deal to protect our national security. The order will also confirm that there will be no liability for any company that helped keep TikTok from going dark before my order.

Americans deserve to see our exciting Inauguration on Monday, as well as other events and conversations.

I would like the United States to have a 50% ownership position in a joint venture. By doing this, we save TikTok, keep it in good hands and allow it to say up. Without US approval, there is no Tik Tok. With our approval, it is worth hundreds of billions of dollars – maybe trillions.

Therefore, my initial thought is a joint venture between the current owners and/or new owners whereby the US gets a 50% ownership in a joint venture set up between the US and whichever purchase we so choose.

Palantir co-founder Joe Lonsdale made a great point on X: 

Meanwhile, Mike Nellis, a Democratic strategist involved with “White Dudes for Harris,” freaked out on X as Trump could save TikTok: “And Trump is going to position himself as the savior. JFC.”

*   *   * 

Chinese video-sharing platform TikTok suspended all US services early Sunday morning, while Apple and Google removed the app from their app stores to avoid hefty penalties under a new law. This follows the expiration of the divest-or-ban deadline for TikTok at midnight, just one day after the Supreme Court upheld the mandate.

“A law banning TikTok has been enacted in the US Unfortunately, that means you can’t use TikTok for now. We are fortunate that President Trump has indicated that he will work with us on a solution to reinstate TikTok once he takes office. Please stay tuned!” TikTok’s US website landing page reads. 

On Saturday, President-elect Donald Trump said he would give TikTok’s owner, Chinese-owned parent company ByteDance, a three-month reprieve from the ban to find a buyer.

“The 90-day extension is something that will be most likely done, because it’s appropriate,” Trump told NBC News in an exclusive interview, adding, “If I decide to do that, I’ll probably announce it on Monday.”

Bloomberg noted, “It was TikTok’s choice to suspend availability late Saturday” or “face enormous penalties.” 

The unprecedented shutdown of TikTok will mobilize its massive base of 170 million monthly US users and demand action against political leaders who have been trying to nuke the Chinese video-sharing app, as well as, call on Trump to reverse the ban.

The Biden-Harris administration has made it very clear to the incoming administration to take action against TikTok over national security concerns. 

Early Sunday, Elon Musk confirmed that X is exploring the very real possibility of bringing back the short-form video app Vine in some capacity to his social media platform, which has become a central hub for Americans to access news.

TikTokers are freaking out about the ban…

Goldman told clients on Thursday that “Tiktok refugees” were finding alternative video-sharing platforms worldwide, such as downloading the Chinese app RedNote… 

TikTok influencer Tiffany Cianci told Bloomberg she hopes that Trump can deliver to reverse the ban: “This is a promise Trump made and it is a promise he used to get a large number of young people to vote for him,” adding, “We are calling on him to deliver immediately.”

Tyler Durden
Sun, 01/19/2025 – 10:35

What Americans Predict Will Happen In 2025

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What Americans Predict Will Happen In 2025

The year 2025 begins with a new president taking office, a ceasefire in Gaza, and wildfires causing extensive destruction in Los Angeles – all within the first month.

So, what can we expect from the rest of the year?

This graphic, via Visual Capitalist’s Bruno Venditti, presents predictions for 2025 on various topics, based on a survey conducted by Ipsos between October 25 and November 8, 2024, in the United States.

What Will 2025 Bring?

Below is the full table of data presented in the visualization:

Highlights from the survey include:

  • Americans foresee an increase in extreme weather events in 2025. A majority (56%) also expect immigration to rise, despite Trump’s promises to deport illegal immigrants and impose taxes on products from Mexico and Canada if neighboring countries don’t improve border security.

  • Most respondents also anticipate their personal data being leaked on the internet and believe that unemployment will increase.

  • Only 2 in 10 Americans think the conflicts in the Middle East will end in 2025 (noting that the survey was conducted before the Gaza ceasefire agreement). Additionally, 3 in 10 Americans believe the war in Ukraine will conclude this year.

  • Finally, 63% of respondents feel it is unlikely that people will become more tolerant in 2025.

If you enjoyed this chart, check out this graphic that shows the countries most exposed to potential immigration policy changes under the Trump presidency.

Tyler Durden
Sun, 01/19/2025 – 09:55

With Trump In Power, Orbán Vows To Expel Soros Network From Hungary, Urges Patriots Across Europe To Do Same

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With Trump In Power, Orbán Vows To Expel Soros Network From Hungary, Urges Patriots Across Europe To Do Same

Authored by Liz Heflin via Remix News,

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who bet big on a Trump victory, is now making broad predictions about a “new golden age” for Hungary with Trump in the White House, while taking shots at Democrats and George Soros, including a promise to expel his organizations from Hungary.

“Everything will change, a different day will dawn over the Western world on Tuesday morning. The failed democratic governance in America will come to an end,” Magyar Nemzet reported Viktor Orbán as saying in his first interview this year with Kossuth Radio’s Good Morning Hungary! program.

Calling the Democratic Party and George Soros “a bunch of idiots,” Orbán claimed the Democrats want to force what they think is right on the world, including regarding migration, gender, and wa.

He further called U.S. Ambassador to Hungary David Pressman a “bully” who sought to “push Hungary into the globalist canon.”

“It is not in the Hungarian people’s thinking that a tyrant comes here and says that people from the other side of the world should come here and populate this region before us,” the Hungarian prime minister said, admitting that he “was not willing” to meet Pressman even once during his four-year tenure. 

Regarding Antal Rogán being put on the U.S. sanctions list, Orbán said this actually strengthened Rogán’s position in the government and that the U.S. move proves the minister is doing his job well. Although Rogán’s official title is minister of the Prime Minister’s Cabinet Office; Orbán mentioned his job specifically as being related to Hungary’s “intelligence/secret services” (titkosszolgálatok).

Believing that a Trump administration heralds a “new golden age” for Hungary, Orbán said that his top priority for 2025 is to send George Soros back to the United States, with the “expulsion of the Soros network from Hungary” starting this spring. Orbán also expressed his hope that “patriots elsewhere” will also do the same.

“It must be shown that the Soros network’s presence in Europe is contrary to the interests of the people,” he stated.

Stating that Brussels is in the pocket of George Soros, he said, “If there is corruption, this is it.”

Noting the start of a “new era in Brussels,” the prime minister said Brussels needs to “sober up” and “adapt.”

Although the prime minister lauded Hungary’s economic policy plans, he said they will only work if the war does not escalate and the sanctions policy is stopped. He also believes serious protective measures will be needed.

“Without Western money, there is no Ukraine. Ukrainian agriculture clashes with European agriculture, and its economy does not fit into the European system,” he added. 

Promising jobs and wage increases for everyone, he sees the middle class growing stronger in 2025, highlighting Hungary’s financial reserve system to boost consumption. Orbán also noted that Hungarians save an average of 24 percent of their income, compared to the EU average of 14 percent.

Energy will, as for many countries, remain a concern, especially with ongoing sanctions and as Hungary’s nuclear plant expansion (Paks II) will not be completed until. 2030-2032. Thus, keeping the TurkStream pipeline open will be of key importance. 

Read more here…

Tyler Durden
Sun, 01/19/2025 – 09:20

Goes Dark: “Sorry, TikTok Isn’t Available Right Now”

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Goes Dark: “Sorry, TikTok Isn’t Available Right Now”

Chinese video-sharing platform TikTok suspended all US services early Sunday morning, while Apple and Google removed the app from their app stores to avoid hefty penalties under a new law. This follows the expiration of the divest-or-ban deadline for TikTok at midnight, just one day after the Supreme Court upheld the mandate.

“A law banning TikTok has been enacted in the US Unfortunately, that means you can’t use TikTok for now. We are fortunate that President Trump has indicated that he will work with us on a solution to reinstate TikTok once he takes office. Please stay tuned!” TikTok’s US website landing page reads. 

On Saturday, President-elect Donald Trump said he would give TikTok’s owner, Chinese-owned parent company ByteDance, a three-month reprieve from the ban to find a buyer.

“The 90-day extension is something that will be most likely done, because it’s appropriate,” Trump told NBC News in an exclusive interview, adding, “If I decide to do that, I’ll probably announce it on Monday.”

Bloomberg noted, “It was TikTok’s choice to suspend availability late Saturday” or “face enormous penalties.” 

The unprecedented shutdown of TikTok will mobilize its massive base of 170 million monthly US users and demand action against political leaders who have been trying to nuke the Chinese video-sharing app, as well as, call on Trump to reverse the ban.

The Biden-Harris administration has made it very clear to the incoming administration to take action against TikTok over national security concerns. 

Early Sunday, Elon Musk confirmed that X is exploring the very real possibility of bringing back the short-form video app Vine in some capacity to his social media platform, which has become a central hub for Americans to access news.

TikTokers are freaking out about the ban…

Goldman told clients on Thursday that “Tiktok refugees” were finding alternative video-sharing platforms worldwide, such as downloading the Chinese app RedNote… 

TikTok influencer Tiffany Cianci told Bloomberg she hopes that Trump can deliver to reverse the ban: “This is a promise Trump made and it is a promise he used to get a large number of young people to vote for him,” adding, “We are calling on him to deliver immediately.”

Tyler Durden
Sun, 01/19/2025 – 08:45

Lithuania Becomes First NATO Ally To Commit To Trump’s 5% Defense-Spending Goal

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Lithuania Becomes First NATO Ally To Commit To Trump’s 5% Defense-Spending Goal

Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times,

Lithuania has announced plans to boost its defense spending to between 5 percent and 6 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP), becoming the first NATO country to make a firm commitment to President-elect Donald Trump’s request that allies spend at least 5 percent of GDP on defense.

The decision, announced on Jan. 17 by top Lithuanian officials, is driven by the Baltic nation’s determination to confront the threat of Russian aggression. Lithuania, which shares a border with Russia and its heavily militarized Kaliningrad exclave, has repeatedly emphasized the need to bolster its defenses.

Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda told reporters after a Jan. 17 meeting of the State Defense Council in Vilnius, the capital of Lithuania, that a historic decision has been taken to nearly double the country’s defense spending. Currently, Lithuania spends a little over 3 percent of its GDP on defense.

“The possibility of Russian military aggression is still real, but not imminent,” Nausėda said.

“We need to increase our efforts to strengthen defense and deterrence significantly, devoting more resources to this end.”

Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys clarified in a post on X that the country’s commitment to spend between 5 percent and 6 percent of GDP would start in 2026 and continue through 2030.

“Difficult times require bold decisions & leadership,” he wrote.

“We call on our allies to follow this lead. The era of passive ’sit-and-wait’ strategies is over.”

The announcement, which comes days before Trump assumes office, makes Lithuania the first NATO ally to formally commit to the 5 percent of GDP spending target that the president-elect has demanded.

Trump has long criticized NATO members for not meeting the alliance’s 2 percent defense spending target and recently proposed a more ambitious 5 percent goal, saying during a Jan. 7 press conference at Mar-a-Lago that “they can all afford it.”

Poland, the current NATO leader in defense spending, has vocally supported Trump’s 5 percent target. However, Warsaw has framed its 5 percent support as an aspirational goal for all NATO members, suggesting it could take some countries a decade to achieve it. As of now, Poland has not officially declared when it will meet or exceed the 5 percent mark. Poland spent 4.12 percent of GDP in 2024 and projects that will rise to 4.7 percent in 2025.

In backing Trump’s call for the 5 percent target, Polish Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz told the Financial Times in a recent interview: “If we could afford to go into debt to rebuild after Covid, then we must surely find the money to protect ourselves from war.”

Poland, which shares a border with both Ukraine and Russia, has long argued that greater defense spending is needed to deter Russia. Overall, however, European NATO leaders have offered a mixed response to Trump’s demand for a significant defense spending boost. For instance, France is grappling with the challenges of managing a debt burden exceeding 110 percent of GDP, while Germany is constrained by constitutional limits on additional borrowing.

In 2014, NATO set a target that all members should be spending 2 percent of GDP by 2024.

By the end of 2023, 10 of 31 NATO members had reached the 2 percent goal, although projections published in June 2024 suggest that number could rise to 23 out of 32 in 2024, following Sweden’s accession.

When Trump took office in 2016, only five NATO members met the 2 percent minimum defense spending target; by the end of his presidency, that number had increased to nine.

Tyler Durden
Sun, 01/19/2025 – 08:10

Russian Media Alleges NATO F-16 Pilot Killed In Strike On Ukraine

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Russian Media Alleges NATO F-16 Pilot Killed In Strike On Ukraine

Russia is claiming that its military has killed a NATO flight instructor who was on the ground in Ukraine advising Ukrainian pilots after they received several rounds of F-16 fighter jets from European countries.

“Danish instructor Jepp Hansen, who was training Ukrainian pilots to fly F-16 fighter jets, has allegedly been killed in a Russian missile strike in Ukraine, TASS reported on Saturday,” according to Russia’s English-language media.

Illustrative image via X

Regional reports say that an Iskander missile was launched by Russia on a university building in the city of Krivoy Rog in Dnepropetrovsk Region which was being used by the Ukrainian military.

The Danish government has not commented on the claims, nor is it expected to:

According to Russian media reports, citing a post by Hansen’s friend on social media, the Dane had significant experience in flying F-16 jets and had trained “hundreds of Ukrainians” to operate the planes. 

Neither Denmark nor the Russian Defense Ministry has officially commented on the reports.

Denmark and the Netherlands have been leading European countries in the F-16 program, having also hosted Ukrainian pilots as they undergo training.

While speculation has abounded over whether or not NATO trainers are actually inside Ukraine, Russia has on several occasions warned that any such Western personnel present in Ukraine are fair game for attack.

In the recent past, Russia has claimed to have taken out French mercenaries in the north. These current Russian media reports mark the first claims of a NATO flight instructor having been killed, and the reports are surprisingly specific, mentioning the allegedly deceased Danish pilot by name.

Some media reports and pundits have gone so far as to suggest that NATO pilots are actually operating Ukraine’s F-16s in Ukraine’s skies in some cases. But this has never been confirmed nor is there evidence of this.

Russia’s military has been searching for base locations in Ukraine where the F-16s are hosted on the ground. Kiev has kept this a carefully guarded secret since receiving the advanced fighters. It could be that some are based in neighboring Poland, and then fly missions in Ukraine.

The US has also been hosting a Ukrainian pilot training program, especially out of San Antonio and Arizona, but has allowed European partners to largely spearhead the bulk of the training, some reports indicate.

Tyler Durden
Sun, 01/19/2025 – 07:35

The Merits Of A Demilitarized ‘Trans-Dnieper’ Region Controlled By Non-Western Peacekeepers

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The Merits Of A Demilitarized ‘Trans-Dnieper’ Region Controlled By Non-Western Peacekeepers

Authored by Andrew Korybko via substack,

This proposal is the most realistic means for keeping the peace after an armistice…

Bloomberg cited unnamed “people with knowledge of Kremlin thinking” to report that Russia will only demand that Ukraine restore its constitutional neutrality, “drastically cut back military ties with the NATO alliance”, limit its army, and freeze the front lines, albeit with some territorial swaps. Also, “The Kremlin’s position is that while individual NATO members may continue to send arms to Ukraine under bilateral security agreements, any such weapons should not be used against Russia or to recapture territory.”

To be sure, Bloomberg might have either invented their sources or they’re uninformed of what the Kremlin thinks, but there’s also the possibility that they’re accurately reflecting what it plans to ask for during peace talks. Hopefully Russia’s demands of Ukraine are more than what Bloomberg just reported, however, because the aforesaid requests would be settling for much less than it might otherwise be able to achieve as suggested by some of the proposals made at the end of this analysis here.

For instance, any agreement to limit the Ukrainian Armed Forces is meaningless without a monitoring mission paired with credible enforcement mechanisms to enforce compliance. After all, even written guarantees that individual NATO members won’t arm Ukraine for the purpose of using these weapons against Russia or to recapture territory – not to mention purely verbal ones – could be broken. There’s also the question of how Russia would respond to future drone and missile strikes from Ukraine.

The most realistic way to address these concerns is through the participation of only non-Western countries in monitoring and peacekeeping roles, the latter of which could concern deployment along the entire Russian-Ukrainian border, including the Line of Contact (LOC). About the second-mentioned, the reported territorial swaps could see Russia give back its part of Kharkov Oblast in exchange for Ukraine giving back its part of Kursk Oblast, which each would formally retain their territorial claims to the other.

This would restore the status quo ante bellum along that part of their universally recognized frontier while serving as a legal workaround against their respective constitutional prohibitions on ceding territory, which in Russia’s case is absolute while Ukraine’s requires a national referendum. Accordingly, freezing the LOC through an armistice a la the Korean precedent wouldn’t violate either of their laws, thus retaining Ukraine’s claims to the entirety of its pre-2014 borders and Russia’s to its post-2022 ones.

As for effectively keeping the peace, Russia could be more confidently assured that Ukraine won’t unilaterally violate the armistice with Western encouragement if the proposed non-Western monitoring and peacekeeping contingent is allowed to inspect all trains and cars that cross the Dnieper eastward. Ukraine might undertake a long-term clandestine campaign to rebuild its heavy weaponry presence in proximity to the DMZ ahead of a possible sneak attack so this would be imperative for impeding that.

Likewise, since such equipment could also be smuggled across the river, these forces should also be given the means for patrolling it as well as the right to detain people, seize their contraband, and use lethal force if they come under attack. Kiev should have a special regime since it’s difficult to enforce such checks given the capital’s location on both sides of the river, but one possibility is fencing off its northeastern, eastern, and southeastern reaches beyond the city’s limits and conducting checks there.

The ideal scenario should be to demilitarize everything east of the Dnieper and north of the LOC that remains under Kiev’s formal control, the so-called “Trans-Dnieper” region for lack of a better description, while having its DMZ manned by Russia’s closest non-Western partners. The first part of this suggestion would prevent Ukraine from unilaterally violating the armistice while the second would do the same with regards to Russia since it would be loath to attack Indian and other such friendly peacekeepers.

This proposal takes for granted that NATO will continue expanding its influence in Western Ukraine along that side of the Dnieper, but the river will serve as a major obstacle to on-the-ground offensive action by either party, all while they presumably concentrate air defense systems up and down its banks. It’s unrealistic to expect Russia to plant boots its boots on the NATO-Ukrainian border, monitor everything that crosses, and then hold these positions indefinitely as explained here so this is the next best solution.

In the event that Russia or Ukraine detects illegal military activity by the other in the Trans-Dnieper region such as prohibited arms and special forces, then they should already have a protocol agreed upon as part of their armistice for peacefully addressing this prior to resorting to kinetic action if that fails. This could include a formal complaint with evidence, tasking the non-Western monitoring and peacekeeping mission with investigating, and in the worst-case scenario, drone or missile strikes against those targets.

On-the-ground military activity by either party would be strictly prohibited since that would violate the terms of the armistice and instantly risk another conflict, ergo the purpose of the non-Western monitoring and peacekeeping mission along the DMZ, the Dnieper, and around Eastern Kiev for deterring this. There could also be previously agreed and very severe economic, financial, and other consequences from Western and non-Western countries that would immediately enter into effect if that happens.

Basically, the Trans-Dnieper region would function as a no-man’s land or buffer zone, and the locals who feel uncomfortable living there could either relocate elsewhere in Ukraine such as west of the Dnieper or take advantage of Russia’s simplified procedure from summer 2022 for moving eastward instead. As can be seen, the proposal for a demilitarized Trans-Dnieper region that would be monitored and maintained by non-Western peacekeepers would greatly keep the pace, hence why Russia must demand it.

Any armistice or peace treaty that doesn’t include this outcome risks being unilaterally violated by Ukraine with Western encouragement after some time. Its terms, especially those involving severe multidimensional consequences against whichever party sends ground forces into this zone (though importantly not for carrying out surgical strikes), should also reassure the West that Russia won’t violate this deal either. That’s why the US would do well to seriously consider this proposal if Russia brings it up.

Should Russia settle for less by only demanding what Bloomberg reported, then it would be tacitly requesting nothing more than a temporary lull in hostilities to prepare for the next inevitable phase of the conflict. Officially speaking, Russia remains determined to reach a lasting peace that preferably meets as many of its maximum goals as is realistically possible given the new circumstances in which it now finds itself after over 1,000 days of conflict, so it should be receptive to the Trans-Dnieper proposal.

Tyler Durden
Sun, 01/19/2025 – 07:00

These Are The 25 Most Affordable Cities In America

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These Are The 25 Most Affordable Cities In America

Most Americans know living costs vary widely across the country, with the coasts being significantly more expensive than Middle America.

From rent and groceries to gas, the Midwest often stands out for its affordability. But just how far does this pattern extend?

To find out, Visual Capitalist’s Pallavi Rao ranked the 25 most affordable cities among America’s 50 largest, based on average monthly household spending on 10 common bills.

Data is sourced from payment platform Doxo’s annual report tracking household expenditure.

America’s Least Expensive City: Detroit

Detroit, still home to America’s big three automakers, is the most affordable large American city.

Households in Detroit spend about $1,600 a month, almost $100 less than second-ranked Cleveland, Ohio. This is also the largest gap between cities on this list.

As previously suspected, America’s most affordable large cities are clustered in the Midwest (particularly around the Great Lakes) and the South.

In fact, only five cities on the entire list are not in one of the two regions. Of them, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania ($2,060/month) is the only one that can be considered on the seaboard.

But of course, just dollars spent isn’t everything.

By looking at the share of monthly income put towards these bills, new patterns emerge.

For example, Detroit households spent nearly half of their monthly income on these bills, far more than 25th ranked Fort Worth households (37%).

So which cities spend the most on bills? Check out: America’s Least Affordable Cities Going Into 2025 for a breakdown.

Tyler Durden
Sat, 01/18/2025 – 23:00