US stock futures faded earlier gains, but were also off session lows after a tariff-driven selloff in equities on Wednesday which hit the Mag7 names. Futures on the S&P 500 are flat after Trump announced 25% uniform tariffs on auto imports, while Nasdaq futures dropped 0.3% amid a reversal of the Monday price action as investors seem to be back to the recession playbook ahead of April 2 announcement. Mag 7, Cyclicals and High Short Interest are among the worst performing baskets, while Defensives outperformed. AI and data center names faced a slew of negative catalysts so far this week, including NVDA’s China environmental curbs, sell-side report on MSFT lease cancellation, BABA’s comments earlier this week: NVDA-5.7%; JPM’s Data Center basket -3.0%. Commodities are higher led by oil and base metals. Outside the US, China ADRs outperformed US domestics with KWEB up 54bps today as China PBOC adviser promised (once again) that China will ramp up stimulus if growth falters.
In premarket trading, shares of US automakers and auto-parts suppliers dropped with peers in Europe also declining following Trump’s tariff announcement. Gamestop fell as the company said it plans to offer convertible bonds to buy Bitcoin. Nvidia slips, leading Mag7 declines and extending losses into a third straight session amid growing concerns over the outlook for spending on AI (Alphabet -0.3%, Amazon -0.3%, Apple -0.4%, Microsoft -0.1%, Meta -0.5%, Nvidia -1.7% and Tesla +0.5%). Automaker stocks fall after President Donald Trump hit auto imports with a 25% tariff starting next week. Analysts say Ford and General Motors are set to see the biggest impact, while Stellantis and Tesla are in a better position (General Motors -6%, Ford -0.7%, Stellantis’s US-listed shares -1.6%; Auto-parts firms: Autoliv -3%, Magna -1.8, BorgWarner -0.7%). Here are some other notable premarket movers:
- 3D Systems (DDD) falls 5% after the 3D-printing company issued annual forecasts for revenue and adjusted gross margin that trailed Wall Street expectations.
- AMD (AMD) slips 3% after Jefferies downgraded the chipmaker to hold, with analysts citing limited traction in artificial intelligence among other negatives.
- Cava Group (CAVA) climbs 2% as the company will replace Altair Engineering Inc. in the S&P MidCap 400 effective prior to the opening of trading on March 31.
- Coursera (COUR) falls 2.2% after Bank of America resumed coverage of the online educational firm with an underperform rating, citing a “muted” 2025 revenue growth outlook.
- GameStop (GME) drops 6% as the company seeks to sell $1.3 billion of convertible bonds to fund Bitcoin purchases as it embraces a strategy that was developed by the cryptocurrency advocate Michael Saylor.
- Jefferies (JEF) slips 5% after fiscal first-quarter earnings declined amid a drop in investment-banking and capital-markets revenue, with activity hurt by uncertainty around US policy and geopolitics.
- MicroVision (MVIS) falls 5% after the electronics components company reported fourth-quarter revenue that trailed Wall Street projections and a wider-than-anticipated loss.
- Petco Health and Wellness (WOOF) gains 6% after the retailer provided a 1Q forecast for adj. Ebitda that topped expectations and said the company expects double-digit improvement in the metric this year.
- Robinhood Markets (HOOD) climbs about 1% after the financial services platform introduced several new products at a Wednesday event, including Robinhood Strategies, Robinhood Banking and Robinhood Cortex.
- Soleno (SLNO) jumps 36% after the biotech won US FDA approval for its Vykat extended-release tablets for the treatment of a condition where sufferers have a sense of being hungry all the time.
- Verint (VRNT) drops 12% after the customer-service software firm reported adjusted revenue and profits for the fourth quarter that fell short of Wall Street’s expectations.
Worries over President Donald Trump’s tariffs hit markets again on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 halting a three-day win streak to close down 1.1%. Trump implemented a 25% levy on auto imports, while threatening further duties on the EU and Canada. The S&P 500 fell 10% between February and March over concern that harsher tariffs will lead to slower economic growth and higher inflation. The index then staged a mild recovery since hitting a low on March 13, but now all eyes are on the so-called reciprocal tariffs, with details due on April 2, the so-called “Liberation Day.”
“Tariffs are front and center on people’s minds,” said Arun Sai, senior multi-asset strategist at Pictet Asset Management. “We all know that tariffs are stagflationary and markets have been trying to price that to different extents. What we don’t know yet is what’s the ultimate lasting impact.”
The tariff drama is also casting doubt over European equities’ recent outperformance against US peers. Pictet’s Sai has downgraded his view on Europe, citing an inevitable hit to economic growth and earnings. Over at BlackRock Investment Institute, managers expect US stocks to soon regain their edge.
“We have been overweight global equities over fixed income for many, many quarters – even as valuations looked increasingly stretched. But for the first time in years, we find ourselves genuinely worried about risk assets,” said Ajay Rajadhyaksha, global chairman for research at Barclays. “Cash allocations should be higher until policy clarity stages at least a mild comeback.”
Technology stocks have come under heavier pressure in recent sessions, as investors question how much longer will the artificial intelligence boom cycle last. Such anxiety resurfaced on Wednesday after a team of TD Cowen analysts said Microsoft Corp. has walked away from new data center projects in the US and Europe.
European stocks also fell as the US pushed ahead with harsh tariffs on automakers and threatened more sweeping trade levies, reinforcing investor concern about the hit to global economic growth. The Stoxx 600 slid 0.5%. Stellantis NV, which makes the Jeep Compass SUV in Mexico, and Mercedes-Benz Group AG fell about 3%. Traders also sold US auto shares, with General Motors Co. tumbling 6% in pre-market trading. Here are some of the biggest movers on Thursday:
- Next shares rise as much as 9% after the UK fashion retailer said it’s made a stronger-than-expected start to the new year and boosted its profit guidance.
- Umicore shares rise as much as 11% after the materials technology company outlined ambitious targets for 2028, with its earnings goal coming in above analyst expectations.
- Coor shares gain as much as 6.1% after the Swedish facility services firm’s price target was raised to SEK52 from SEK48 at DNB.
- Sofina advances as much as 3.3% after releasing its full-year results, with KBC Securities subsequently boosting its price target and saying this is the year in which the investment company “bounces back.”
- European auto stocks fall after President Donald Trump announced a “permanent” 25% tariff on any car not produced in the US.
- UBS shares fall as much as 5.6% as Bank of America downgrades the lender to underperform, saying the lack of clarity on regulation is likely to drag on for months.
- Air France-KLM, EasyJet shares fall as Deutsche Bank downgrades the stocks. The bank cuts earnings forecasts for firms across Europe’s transport sector, noting near-term downside risks to GDP for the US and Europe.
- MFE shares dropped as much as 7.2% in Milan, before paring declines, after the company owned by Italy’s Berlusconi family launched a tender offer on ProSiebenSat.1 Media in a bid to tighten its grip over the German entertainment company.
- Trigano shares drop as much as 15%, the most since 2021, after the maker of motorhomes and leisure vehicles reported a steeper fall in quarterly revenue than anticipated.
- eDreams falls as much as 18% after a shareholder offloaded shares in the firm at a discount to yesterday’s close.
- Kontron shares dive as much as 6.2%, the most in over two months, after the German IT firm experienced a more challenging fourth-quarter than anticipated, according to analysts.
Asian equities edged lower as President Donald Trump’s auto tariffs and threat of more levies on Europe and Canada weighed on sentiment. Chinese shares advanced. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 0.6% before paring the loss, with benchmarks in South Korea and Taiwan underperforming. Toyota Motor slumped following Trump’s decision to slap 25% tariffs on all cars that aren’t manufactured in the US. TSMC was the biggest drag on the gauge after a report that China’s energy rules for advanced chips could dent Nvidia’s sales. Asian equities have been range-bound recently as traders brace for Trump’s renewed tariff offensive to land on April 2. For the month, the MSCI Asia benchmark has gained nearly 3% and is headed for its best monthly performance since September. Benchmarks on Chinese and Hong Kong stocks rallied before ending the day with modest gains of around 0.3%. Optimism over China’s AI breakthrough and supportive macro policy has helped the market beat peers this year.
In FX, the dollar slipped as investors weighed the possibility that President Trump’s latest tariffs could limit the country’s growth potential, although the realty is that the tariffs will lead to a recession elsewhere much faster. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index slipped 0.1%, reversing the previous day’s 0.3% gain. JPY and CAD are the weakest performers in G-10 FX, while GBP and NZD are outperforming. Trump “could be recognizing that his trade policies might be having a ricocheting effect on the US consumers and business owners,” said Fiona Lim, a senior strategist at Malayan Banking Bhd in Singapore. “That makes US dollar gains susceptible to reversal.” USD/JPY rose 0.3% to 150.97, outperforming as the Trump’s latest announcement to slap a 25% tax on Japanese auto imports hit home the prospect that the Japanese economy will suffer from tariffs, keeping the Bank of Japan cautious on raising interest rates. Earlier, the Norwegian krone recovered losses versus the euro after Norges Bank delayed a cut in borrowing costs until later this year as inflation picked up. Elsewhere in Asia, Indian stocks rose ahead of the expiry of monthly derivative contracts. The Nifty 50 Index is on pace for its biggest monthly advance since at least June 2024.
In rates, the 10-year Treasury yield rose 4bps to 4.39% after St Louis Fed President Musalem stuck to the central bank’s position that it is in no hurry to keep cutting rates, while voicing concerns that trade levies will fan inflation. Musalem said it’s not clear the impact of tariffs will prove temporary, and cautioned that secondary effects could prompt officials to hold interest rates steady for longer. Euro-area bond yields slipped as expectations grew that the central bank will cut interest rates to cushion the fallout from trade-related shocks; German 10-year yields have nearly erased their drop and are at 2.78%. UK bonds slumped across the curve, underperforming US Treasuries and German bunds, amid lingering concerns over the government’s fiscal position. UK 10-year yields are up 7 basis points to 4.80%, and at the highest since January. Focal points of US session include $44 billion 7-year note auction at 1pm New York time and economic data slate including weekly jobless claims and final 4Q GDP revision.
In commodities, WTI crude is trading within Wednesday’s range, falling 0.1% to around $69.56. Spot gold is up roughly $35 to near $3,055/oz. Gold has been benefiting from haven demand. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. ramped up its forecast to $3,300 an ounce by year-end, the latest in a series of banks to up their prediction. Bitcoin has risen to above $87,000.
The US economic calendar includes 4Q GDP revision, February wholesale inventories, and weekly jobless claims (8:30am), February pending home sales (10am) and March Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity (11am). Fed speaker slate includes Barkin and Collins (both 4:30pm)
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 futures little changed at 5,756.00
- STOXX Europe 600 down 0.8% to 544.30
- MXAP down 0.1% to 188.48
- MXAPJ down 0.2% to 588.03
- Nikkei down 0.6% to 37,799.97
- Topix little changed at 2,815.47
- Hang Seng Index up 0.4% to 23,578.80
- Shanghai Composite up 0.1% to 3,373.75
- Sensex up 0.5% to 77,708.16
- Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.4% to 7,969.04
- Kospi down 1.4% to 2,607.15
- German 10Y yield little changed at 2.75%
- Euro up 0.1% to $1.0765
- Brent Futures down 0.4% to $73.51/bbl
- Gold spot up 0.5% to $3,034.94
- US Dollar Index little changed at 104.49
Top Overnight News
- President Trump posted on Truth “If the European Union works with Canada in order to do economic harm to the USA, large scale Tariffs, far larger than currently planned, will be placed on them both in order to protect the best friend that each of those two countries has ever had!”
- President Trump announced the US is to impose 25% tariffs on all cars not made in the US, while he said they will be doing tariffs on pharmaceuticals and tariffs on lumber. Trump stated auto tariffs are going into effect on April 2nd and will start being collected on April 3rd, as well as noted that he will have a news conference on April 2nd which is the real Liberation Day. Furthermore, reciprocal tariffs on April 2nd will be on all tariffs but they will be lenient and in many cases, the tariffs will be less than the tariff charged on the US.
- President Trump said there will be some form of a deal on TikTok and if the deal is not finished, it will be extended. Trump said there are numerous ways to buy TikTok and there is a lot of interest in TikTok, while he added that China has to play a role and he may give China a little reduction in tariffs to get it done
- China reject Trump’s offer of tariff waivers in exchange for TikTok deal, according to AFP
- OpenAI is said to be close to a SoftBank-led $40 billion funding deal that would double its valuation to $300 billion. The AI developer’s funding round would be the largest of all time. BBG
- US President Trump effectively cut 10% of funding for the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Industry and Security which is the key agency in the US-China tech race: BBG
- The Trump administration’s deep cuts to the federal workforce and research funding threaten to erode the quality and credibility of “gold standard” US statistics, economists have warned. US data, from the jobs report to inflation indices, can swing the Street’s $105tn stock and bond markets in milliseconds, and underpin policies that influence the trajectory of the world’s biggest economy. FT
- Chinese Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang on Thursday pledged stronger policy support for the world’s No.2 economy, which he said had started 2025 well and was on track to hit this year’s growth target, buoyed by advancements in AI and other technologies. RTRS
- Chinese financial authorities have told some companies and advisers that they can begin the process of launching mainland initial public offerings once more, in an early sign of a rebound in listings in the world’s second largest economy. Authorities have informed groups in the tech, advanced manufacturing, and consumer sectors in the past few weeks that they can file IPO paperwork. FT
- China may inject up to $260 billion of liquidity into developers this year, Bloomberg Economics said. Meanwhile the biggest banks are said to be accelerating write-offs of soured property loans to clean up their balance sheets. BBG
- Japanese PM Shigeru Ishiba said he won’t rule out taking countermeasures against the 25% tariff on US car imports. The new levies greatly reduce the likelihood of the BOJ raising rates on May 1, central bank watchers said. BBG
- Ukraine is reviewing a economic partnership proposal from the US that may be signed as soon as next week, Scott Bessent told Fox. European leaders are meeting in Paris today to try to carve a role for themselves in the US-led ceasefire talks. BBG
- Donald Trump said he’d impose tariffs “far larger than currently planned” on Canada and the EU if they work together against the US. Earlier, he announced a 25% levy on all car imports, effective next week. Reciprocal tariffs will be imposed on all nations, Trump added, though rates may be lower than expected. Trump also said he’d consider lowering levies on China to secure a TikTok deal. BBG
- Copper traders are racing against time to ship the metal to the US before tariffs hit in weeks — not months. They risk losses on shipping costs and that may wipe out profits for those that locked in the spread between Comex and LME prices. BBG
Tariffs/Trade
- White House official said Commerce Secretary Lutnick informed President Trump that national security concerns raised in the earlier autos probe remain and may have escalated. The official stated the 25% tariff applies to autos and auto parts, in addition to any other duties or fees, while the new 25% tariff will be added to the existing 25% tariff on light trucks and cars coming to the US under USMCA will be tariffed according to their foreign part content. Furthermore, the official stated that tariffs take effect after midnight on April 3rd and it was also reported that Trump’s autos proclamation provides a one-month tariff exemption for auto parts imports until May 3rd.
- Canadian PM Carney said Trump’s tariff announcement is a direct attack on Canadian workers and they will defend their country, while he will convene a high-level meeting on Thursday to discuss trade options and noted that tariffs will hurt Canada but the country will emerge stronger. Furthermore, he said if retaliatory tariffs are appropriate, Canada will take steps in its own interest and that Ottawa will react soon in which it can introduce retaliatory tariffs, while he is sure he will speak to Trump soon.
- Ontario’s Premier said he spoke to PM Carney and they agreed Canada needs to stand firm, strong and united, while he fully supports the government preparing retaliatory tariffs to show that Canada will never back down.
- Unifor said regarding US auto tariffs that President Trump fails to understand the chaos and damages tariffs will inflict on workers and consumers in both Canada and the US.
- Mexico’s Foreign Minister held a call with US Deputy Secretary of State Landau in which they talked about security, migration and commerce, while they agreed to exchange information regularly and to schedule a face-to-face meeting in the near future, according to Mexico’s Exterior Ministry
- European Commission President Von der Leyen said she deeply regrets the US decision to impose tariffs on European automotive exports, while the European Commission will assess the announcement along with other measures the US is expected to unveil in the coming days and the EU will continue to seek negotiated solutions while safeguarding its economic interests.
- Japanese PM Ishiba said various options are on the table for consideration regarding US auto tariffs and need to think about the appropriate response. Ishiba added that Japan is making the largest investment in the US and questions whether it makes sense to apply higher auto tariffs equally to all countries, which is a point it has made and will continue to make to the US.
- China’s ambassador to the US said using fentanyl as an excuse to raise taxes for no reason will only turn another point of cooperation into a point of friction, while the ambassador added that the development of China-US relations has reached a new and important juncture and hopes the US will work with China in the same direction.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks were ultimately mixed with cautiousness seen after Trump’s latest tariff salvo in which he announced the US is to impose 25% tariffs on all cars made outside of the US effective on April 2nd and reiterated that reciprocal tariffs are also set for next week but stated they will be lenient, and in many cases, tariffs will be less than the tariffs charged on the US. ASX 200 declined with the index dragged lower by underperformance in tech, real estate and financials but with further downside stemmed by resilience in utilities and the commodity-related sectors. Nikkei 225 slipped back beneath the 38,000 level with automakers among the worst hit following Trump’s 25% auto tariff announcement. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp kept afloat with outperformance in Hong Kong amid a slew of earnings releases and after US President Trump also suggested he may give China a little reduction in tariffs to get a TikTok deal done, while China’s Vice Premier vowed to push forward reforms to help high-quality economic growth in a speech at the Boao Forum.
Top Asian News
- China’s Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang said at the Boao Forum that there is a significant rise in uncertainties in the world and that China will resolutely oppose protectionism, as well as promote globalisation and safeguard free trade. Ding said China’s economy has had a good start this year and the improving trend in China’s economy has become more consolidated, while he is confident in China achieving its growth target and contributing to Asia and world growth. Furthermore, he said they will push forward key reforms to help high-quality economic growth, promote the development of private firms and make greater efforts to promote the healthy development of the property and stock market.
- Chinese FX Regulator Deputy Head says will resolutely prevent overshooting risks in CNY exchange rates; will keep CNY exchange rate basically stable.
European bourses were primed for a softer open with losses accelerating modestly thereafter given the latest US tariff rhetoric, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.5%. Auto names lag given the focus of Trump’s commentary with marked pressure in names across the board though they are off lows. H3C says NVIDIA (NVDA) H20 chip stocks are nearly depleted, new shipments are due Mid April, according to a client notice; H3C will distribute the chips based on profit margins. Microsoft (MSFT) mulls developing own high-end generative AI, according to Nikkei citing Microsoft CEO Nadella; CEO added that having its proprietary platform will make it easier to provide services optimised for its business software.
Top European News
- ECB’s Kazaks says we can probably keep cutting rates if the baseline holds, adds uncertainty is really high and geopolitics is the main cause.
- ECB’s Wunsch says the ECB is facing a difficult balancing act as tariffs would be bad for the economy and inflationary, via CNBC; a pause should be on the table in April. Unclear what the impact of the recent German fiscal announcement will be. Inflation risks might be on the upside.
- ECB’s Villeroy says France needs to bring the deficit back to the 3% mark Earlier: French 2024 budget deficit at 5.8% of GDP vs gov’t exp. 6.0% (5.4% in 2023), via INSEE.
- UK Chancellor says UK is in “intense negotiations” with the US on all tariffs and “working on” exempting the UK because “we don’t run a surplus”, via BBC.
FX
- DXY in the red after gaining on Wednesday, currently posting a slightly mixed performance against peers. DXY pivoting the 104.50 mark and awaiting tariff developments alongside a handful of other drivers.
- EUR is modestly firmer but off a 1.0787 high against the USD, yet to make its way back onto a 1.08 handle and approach yesterday’s peak @ 1.0803. To the downside, attention is on the 200DMA @ 1.0729.
- Cable is back above the 1.29 handle with the recovery from Wednesday’s pressure a tentative one and we are still shy of that session’s 1.2949 peak. Specifics light thus far, with commentary very much just digesting the statement and tariff implications.
- USD/JPY has extended on yesterday’s upside with JPY the worst performer across the majors. Fresh macro drivers for Japan are light as markets look ahead to Tokyo CPI overnight. Finds itself at a 150.96 peak.
- NOK picked up on the Norges Bank announcement (details below), with EUR/NOK knee jerking to a 11.3374 low before then paring modestly.
- Antipodeans attempting to recoup lost ground and take advantage of USD downside, of note is the suggestion that Trump could give China some tariff relief for a TikTok deal.
- Norges Bank maintains its Key Policy Rate at 4.50% as expected; current assessment of the outlook implies that the policy rate will most likely be reduced in the course of 2025; Q4-2025 Repo Path 4.21% (prev. 3.80%).
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1763 vs exp. 7.2728 (Prev. 7.1754).
Fixed Income
- Modest divergence between EGBs and USTs with Bunds firmer and yields lower given the growth implications of the latest tariff commentary, though Bunds have faded from early 128.69 peaks and are at session lows some 40 ticks below but still just in the green.
- USTs meanwhile find themselves in the red, with yields picking up on the global and US inflationary implications of such action, as such yields are firmer with the curve steepening ahead of data and 7yr supply; a sale which follows a robust 2yr and more a tepid 5yr outing earlier in the week.
- Gilts in the red despite opening with very modest gains. Pressure which comes given the inflationary implications of the above and despite officials in the UK stressing that they do not plan to retaliate to US action and are seeking favourable deals. Thus far, at a 90.55 trough, below Wednesday’s 90.75 low which printed during the statement.
- Reuters calculations suggest China stepped up fiscal support and accelerated bond issuance to the highest on record in Q1 2025, issuing a total of CNY 3.28tln.
Commodities
- Crude benchmarks are both in the red with sentiment feeling heavy amid the US administration’s ongoing tariff rhetoric. Otherwise, rhetoric has been light but prices found somewhat of a floor around the time that Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister said that given the current circumstances, it is impossible that Russia will make any concessions on strategic stability, and there is no concrete agreement on the Black Sea deal.
- WTI May resides in a USD 69.22-69.96/bbl range while its Brent counterpart trades in a USD 73.35-73.97/bbl.
- Dutch TTF shifts between modest gains and losses in early European hours, with complex-specific newsflow light this morning but with traders cognizant of the heating season coming to an end, with stockpiling season ahead.
- Precious metals are mostly firmer with gold gaining on haven flows and most recently extending above the USD 3050/oz mark, a much which occurred without a fresh fundamental driver and may be more technically driven.
- Base metals hit on the risk tone and tariff commentary. 3M LME copper current resides in a USD 9,828.80-9,997.75/t range at the time of writing.
Geopolitics: Middle East
- US President Trump said US attacks on Houthis will continue for a long time.
- Hamas spokesperson Abdel Latif al-Qanoua was killed in an Israeli airstrike on northern Gaza, according to Hamas media cited by Reuters. In relevant news, Lebanese media reported an Israeli march targeted a car on a road in Tyre in southern Lebanon, according to Sky News Arabia.
- “US official to Al-Arabiya: The Pentagon is considering plans to deploy additional forces in the Middle East”, according to Al Arabiya.
Geopolitics: Ukraine
- Russia’s Foreign Ministry says recent Russia-US contacts are at the beginning of a long and difficult process of restoring relations, according to RIA.
- Russian Deputy Foreign Minister says given the current circumstances, it is impossible that Russia will make any concessions on strategic stability, via Tass; no concrete agreement on Black Sea deal.
- European Council President Costa says EU must keep the pressure on Russia via sanctions and he will convey this message in today’s leaders’ meeting on Ukraine
- North Korean leader Kim supervised tests of kamikaze drones and the nation was presumed to send at least 3,000 more troops to Russia, according to Yonhap.
US Event Calendar
- 08:30: 4Q GDP Annualized QoQ, est. 2.3%, prior 2.3%
- 4Q Personal Consumption, est. 4.2%, prior 4.2%
- 4Q GDP Price Index, est. 2.4%, prior 2.4%
- 4Q Core PCE Price Index QoQ, est. 2.7%, prior 2.7%
- 08:30: Feb. Advance Goods Trade Balance, est. -$138b, prior -$153.3b, revised -$155.6b
- 08:30: March Initial Jobless Claims, est. 225,000, prior 223,000
- March Continuing Claims, est. 1.89m, prior 1.89m
- 08:30: Feb. Retail Inventories MoM, est. 0.4%, prior -0.1%
- Feb. Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.7%, prior 0.8%
- 10:00: Feb. Pending Home Sales (MoM), est. 1.0%, prior -4.6%
- Feb. Pending Home Sales YoY, prior -5.2%
- 11:00: March Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity, est. -5, prior -5
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Shortly after the US market close last night, President Trump announced additional 25% tariffs on all cars not made in the US, which will start to be collected from April 3. President Trump framed the tariffs as “permanent”, and the tariffs will apply not just to fully assembled cars, but also to key auto parts, including engines, transmissions and electrical components with the tariffs on auto parts set to take effect no later than May 3. President Trump separately said that reciprocal tariffs were still coming on April 2, although he later added that these will be “very lenient”, while also mentioning upcoming tariffs on pharmaceuticals and lumber. President Trump also said that Republicans in Congress would work on approving tax deductions on car interest rate payments.
The announcement on auto tariffs came after the US close, but the shares of automakers lost ground in after-hours trading as a result. For instance, General Motors was down -6.26%, whilst Ford fell -4.66%. That’s been echoed in Asian markets overnight, with Toyota down -2.72%, making it one of the weaker performers in the Nikkei, which itself has fallen -0.96%. Looking forward, DAX futures have also slumped another -0.75% overnight, reflecting the number of automakers in the index and Germany’s dependence on trade. However, US equities have showed signs of stabilising this morning, with S&P 500 futures up +0.11%.
Before the tariff announcement, equities had shown some signs of bottoming out, which followed a WSJ story that President Trump and his trade team were considering a narrower tariff regime than they once envisaged. But a negative tone still dominated overall, as reports had already come out that President Trump was preparing an announcement on auto tariffs (before any specifics came out) leading to a clear risk-off mood, which also wasn’t helped by an FT report claiming that EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič expected US tariffs “in the realm of 20%”. Unsurprisingly, the most-exposed sectors took a particular hit, and Europe’s STOXX Automobiles and Parts Index ended the session down -2.56%. The moves also meant the German DAX (-1.17%) underperformed, and US automakers also lost ground, with GM down -3.12% in the main session, before the subsequent -6.26% decline after-hours.
That tariff hit was evident more broadly among global equities. In the US, the Magnificent 7 (-3.00%) saw a particularly large slump, reversing course after its strongest 3-day performance since the US election. In turn, that dragged down the S&P 500 (-1.12%), which fell back even though a narrow majority of the index’s components actually moved higher on the day, which just goes to show how much influence the Mag 7 still have. Some of the more defensive sectors including consumer staples (+1.42%) and utilities (+0.70%) put in a solid performance, but Nvidia (-5.74%) and Tesla (-5.58%) led the declines, ending the session as the 5th and 7th worst performers in the S&P 500, respectively. There was also a team of equity analysts who said Microsoft (-1.31%) had walked away from more data centre projects. Their note last month, that first discussed this trend, was part of the reason the Mag-7 sell-off gathered some momentum in February. Earlier in the, week Alibaba chairman Joe Tsai warned of a potential bubble in data centres. So one to continue to watch. Back in Europe, there was also a slump across the board led by tech and auto stocks, with the STOXX 600 (-0.70%) posting its biggest daily decline in two weeks.
Elsewhere, the tariff news also saw copper futures (+0.64%) rise to a record high, which followed Bloomberg’s report that US copper tariffs could happen within several weeks, which would be much sooner than the 270-day deadline for the investigation launched last month. So that added to fears about inflationary pressures, pushing the 10yr Treasury yield (+3.9bps) up to a one-month closing high of 4.35%. Matters also weren’t helped by a fresh rise in oil prices, with Brent crude (+1.05%) up to its highest level so far this month, at $73.79/bbl. So by the close, the US 1yr inflation swap was up +3.5bps to 3.02%, only just beneath its recent closing peak of 3.05% last month. Higher yields and the risk-off tone helped the dollar index (+0.33%) rise to its highest in three weeks.
Whilst tariffs were the main global news story yesterday, there were several economic headlines from the UK too, as the government announced fresh spending cuts at their Spring Statement. The context is that without the cuts, the government would have risked breaching their fiscal rules, thanks to a combination of growth downgrades and higher bond yields since their Budget in October. So if they hadn’t done anything, their margin against the rules would have been cut from £9.9bn in October to -£4.1bn today. However, the latest measures have now restored that headroom back to £9.9bn, which include benefit changes and reforms to public services. Nevertheless, it’s still quite a narrow margin by historical standards, and the OBR judged that the probability of meeting the fiscal mandate (for the current budget to balance in 2029-30) is only 54%. So the risk is that further fiscal tightening might be required later in the year if growth keeps surprising on the downside or bond yields creep higher.
Against that backdrop, UK gilts outperformed yesterday, with a big boost after the UK Debt Management Office said they’d sell £299.2bn of gilts in the 2025-26 fiscal year, a bit beneath the £302bn expected by the consensus. That gilt rally also got further support from the softer-than-expected CPI print for February, with headline CPI down to +2.8% (vs. +3.0% expected). So that led investors to dial up the likelihood of another rate cut at the Bank of England’s next meeting in May, with the probability up from 61% on Tuesday to 77% by yesterday’s close. In turn, that saw gilts rally across the curve, with the 2yr yield (-2.4bps) and the 10yr yield (-3.1bps) both falling.
Elsewhere in Europe, bond yields were fairly steady, with those on 10yr bunds (-0.2bps), OATs (+0.6bps) and BTPs (+0.4bps) not seeing much movement in either direction. There was a bit of ECB commentary, with Austria’s Holzmann (a hawk) saying that there was “a need to be cautious in reducing the interest rate too much.” But France’s Villeroy said they “still have room to cut pragmatically”, and investors moved to price in a growing likelihood that we’d still get another rate cut at the next meeting in April. In fact, overnight index swaps raised the probability of another cut to 76%.
Overnight in Asia, that negative market reaction has continued following the auto tariff announcement from President Trump. The Nikkei (-0.96%) and the KOSPI (-1.35%) are leading the losses, with Australia’s S&P/ASX/200 also down -0.37%. However, it hasn’t all been bad news, with the Hang Seng (+0.90%) posting a strong performance this morning, whilst the CSI 300 (+0.32%) and the Shanghai Comp (+0.22%) are also in positive territory.
To the day ahead now, and US data releases include the third estimate of Q4 GDP, the weekly initial jobless claims, and pending home sales for February. We’ll also get the Euro Area M3 money supply for February. Otherwise, central bank speakers include ECB Vice President de Guindos, the ECB’s Villeroy, Wunsch, Escriva and Schnabel, the Fed’s Barkin and Collins, and the BoE’s Dhingra.
