Summary:

• Iran tightens control over Hormuz: The IRGC says ships must obtain authorization to transit the strait or face enforcement action.
• Shipping disruptions emerge after increased flows: A tanker near Oman was reportedly attacked, and several vessels turned back after Iranian warnings, sending oil prices higher.
• Tehran seeks billions in transit fees: Iran wants to impose Hormuz passage charges that it says could generate up to $40 billion annually.
• Rubio rejects the plan: The U.S. says Gulf states offer “zero support” for Iranian tolls and warns they would undermine freedom of navigation.

*  *  *

Tanker Attacked Off Oman Amid US-Iran Divergence Over Terms of Hormuz Reopening, Crude Jumps

A tanker appears to have come under (likely) Iranian attack close to the coast of Oman on Thursday. It seems that Iran is seeking to impose control, and its red lines as its military issues the following message: “Coordination with the IRGC Navy for passage through the Strait of Hormuz via Channel 16 is mandatory, and violator vessels will be dealt with.”

Below is the initial UKMTO alert:

UKMTO WARNING 074-26 – ATTACK

Click here to view the full warning.⤵️ https://t.co/0hDEAb7xO9#MaritimeSecurity #MarSec pic.twitter.com/HlPzQDLBja

— UKMTO Operations Centre (@UK_MTO) June 25, 2026

Crude jumps, also as Bloomberg reports that already “At least three ships, including two oil supertankers, appeared to turn around while attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz using a route that hugs Oman’s coastline.”

Bloomberg continues: “It wasn’t immediately clear why the vessels turned around, but two maritime intelligence companies published broadcasts that purported to be from the Iranian navy instructing ships not to cross. Not all ships have turned around and some continued along the Oman route, according to tracking data compiled by Bloomberg.”

This comes after there’s been some optimism this week after the signing of the US-Iran MoU, as tanker traffic has clearly picked up. However, Tehran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority has been insistent that transit can’t happen without express permission, and as Tehran seems to impose steep tolls under its protocol.

*  *  *

Iran Seeking Beijing Approval for Toll Scheme

Despite Rubio’s warning while meeting with GCC allies in Bahrain, Iran is planning to move forward on charging hefty fees for vessels wishing to transit the Strait of Hormuz under its protocol, which is to be enforced by the IRGC. What’s more is that it’s seeking Beijing’s approval and help.

Iran’s chief negotiator and Parliament Speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, asserted during a prior visit to Oman this week: “Everyone needs to know that management of the strait will never return to the way it was before.”

According to fresh reporting in The Wall Street Journal:

Iran is pushing to make billions of dollars from the Strait of Hormuz as the regime positions itself to manage the global oil artery it severed at the start of the war. 

The Islamic Republic estimates that charging for security, safety and environmental services in the strait would bring in $40 billion a year in revenue for states involved, according to officials familiar with the matter. The idea, if implemented, would bring Tehran cash flow and control that it didn’t command before the war. 

The regime is looking to models around the world, including the Dardanelles, the officials said, where Turkey charges ships a tax known as the gold franc for passage to and from the Aegean Sea through the international waterway.

Rubio has just complained that such a scheme would unleash “chaos” and would spread “like a contagion” to other global shipping chokepoints. He has asserted that Washington sees this as a red line and won’t allow the precedent to be established.

On the China angle, crucially, “To get buy-in, Tehran is pitching the idea to the wider Middle East and as far afield as Beijing, according to Iranian officials. It wants its Persian Gulf neighbors to be part of the agreement and share the revenue,” sources said.

Iran clearly feels itself in control of negotiations, and so is flexing its maximal demands, as it knows that Trump came to the table to avoid serious rupture in global oil as US strategic reserves have dwindled and Americans would revolve against his little “excursion” in Iran.

Tehran senses weakness? A softening in tone from the Trump administration: 

REPORTER: “You used to call them religious theocratic lunatics. Do you still believe that language applies to the leadership today?”

SEC. RUBIO: “Well, it’s not that I believe it. It’s the fact of the matter. I mean, the Iranian system is led by clerics, radical clerics. That’s… pic.twitter.com/0FIGKdMlTq

— FOX & Friends (@foxandfriends) June 25, 2026

Rubio from Bahrain: ‘Zero’ Gulf Support from Gulf States for Tolls, Fees

Secretary of State Marco Rubio has made some fresh Thursday remarks in Manama, Bahrain after his meeting with Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) foreign ministers. “We had a very productive meeting,” he acknowledged.

The US top diplomat emphasized that “zero support” from Gulf countries for tolls or fees on the Strait of Hormuz, in contradiction to Iran’s official stance (and possibly in coordination with Oman, which has provoked US wrath).

Oman has remained ambiguous on the issue in its latest statements, no doubt not wishing to not further inflame Washington sentiment against the longtime southern Arab Gulf ally.

Oman, via its state news agency, has reaffirmed that it is ready to help restore maritime security and that it backs the MoU signed between the US and Tehran, also in accord with decisions made at the high-level Vance meeting in Switzerland at the start of the week. Rubio’s main argument seemed to be the very bad precedent that a toll system extracted by Iran (and the IRGC) would set, warning that Iranian tolls on ships through Hormuz would only spread to other waterways, risking “total chaos”.

“International waterways do not belong to any nation state. This is a foundational principle in the world today, without which the world would be in total chaos,” he said at the GCC meeting. He added: 

“If in fact we accepted that you can charge money to use an international waterway because it happens to be near your territorial space, well then this will spread throughout the world like a contagion.”

He stressed the the Trump administration is committed to a peace deal, but not “at any price”. He explained: “While we want a deal, we don’t want a deal at any price. We want a deal that’s good, we want a deal that’s real, we want a deal that’s verifiable, and we want a deal that’s adhered to.”

“We want to ensure… that there is no part of this deal that’s undertaken that in any way undermines the security, the stability, or the prosperity of any of our partners in the Gulf region,” he said.

🇺🇸 — VID: Marco Rubio today in Bahrain on Iran:

“You can call it a toll, you can call it a fee, whatever you want to call it—it’s a game of semantics.

The reality of it is that no country on earth has a right to charge for the use of international waterways.

And that will… pic.twitter.com/k4xo4hY2TY

— Belaaz News (@TheBelaaz) June 25, 2026

Rubio’s Gulf tour has included the UAE, Kuwait and Bahrain, where he’s given assurances that any broader US-Iran peace deal would not abandon Gulf allies’ interests. Another notable statement from Rubio is his statement that a reconstruction fund for Iran was not discussed with Gulf countries. But this also remains high at the top of Tehran’s wish list.

IRGC: Noncompliant Ships ‘Will Be Dealt With’

As for the latest from Iran, the country’s elite Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has warned against any crossings of the Strait of Hormuz without authorization, threatening that ships not complying “will be dealt with” as it criticized a new route through the waterway established under the auspices of Gulf countries and with UN coordination.

Rubio calling Iranian leadership, ‘religious theocratic lunatic’ – while his boss is begging for a negotiated solution, these sorts of lunacy counterproductive. pic.twitter.com/8BVV2mjiVr

— Ashok Swain (@ashoswai) June 25, 2026

“The only authorized route for passage through the Strait of Hormuz is the route announced by the Islamic Republic of Iran,” the IRGC said Thursday.

So clearly despite the MoU framework still holding and producing a temporary peace, which has even seen more ships flowing through the waterway, major contradictory issues remain.

According to new video of communications on Marine VHF channel 16 (the international hailing/calling channel for ships) from @_MartinKelly_, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Navy (IRGC-N), also known as the ‘Sepah Navy’ has announced:

“Transiting the Strait of Hormuz is… pic.twitter.com/anngHDTDeo

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) June 25, 2026

More Developments

Some more of the latest via Al Jazeera:

• The US will not accept that Hormuz belongs to any nation state, Rubio said while meeting with Bahraini leaders in Manama. He also said that the US wants a deal that doesn’t undermine security and prosperity for itself nor its allies.
• Bahrain’s ⁠Foreign ⁠Minister Abdullatif bin Rashid Al ⁠Zayani welcomed Oman’s announcement of a corridor for the ‌safe passage of vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, as ⁠he chaired a GCC ⁠meeting during Rubio’s visit to the ‌country.
• A Lebanese military source told Al Jazeera that Israeli forces remain deployed in all the areas they recently occupied, making the statement after the Reuters news agency cited a US State Department official stating that Israel had withdrawn from parts of the area.
• There were reports of a drone strike in the front-line village of Kfar Tibnit on the outskirts of the city of Nabatieh in southern Lebanon, according to our correspondents on the ground.
• Some ⁠57 ⁠ships carrying an estimated 1,100 seafarers have transited ⁠the Strait of Hormuz since June 23 ⁠under a UN evacuation plan launched this week, data from the ‌UN’s shipping agency showed.

We’re finally starting to see hints of relief when it comes to inflation. Prices at the pump are starting to come down, monthly core CPI momentum has slowed, used cars were down around 2% YoY, and food inflation is starting to moderate. On the other hand, there’s America’s massive explosion in artificial-intelligence infrastructure – which is beginning to push prices up on everything from electricity to smartphones.

On Thursday Apple announced a 15-25% price hike on Mac computers and iPads, after CEO Tim Cook told the Wall Street Journal that the jump in costs was unlike anything he had seen “in any area in over 40 years.” An Apple spokesperson placed the blame on the “rapid expansion of AI data centers, which has created an extraordinary surge in demand for memory and storage,” causing component prices to surge.

Elon Musk agrees…

Tim Cook, who told The Wall Street Journal that the jump in costs was unlike anything he had seen “in any area in over 40 years.”

Biggest price jump in anything I’ve ever seen too. https://t.co/aypJGgssnN

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) June 25, 2026

As the Wall Street Journal notes; 

The money pouring into the AI arms race is unprecedented. Analysts peg capital spending at five of the so-called hyperscalers—Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms, Microsoft and Oracle—at $741 billion this year, according to FactSet, up nearly 75% from last year.

Where is all that money going? While much of the conversation is focused on what AI can do, the build-out itself is strikingly physical, said Columbia University economist Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh. -WSJ

AI data centers require specific, sophisticated equipment to ensure cool, stable operation – as well as electric and fiber-optic cables and backup generators in order to keep them running 24-7. According to the report, Van Nieuwerburgh estimates that the AI buildout could cost somewhere in the range of $8 trillion over the next six years. As such, the demand for components shared throughout the economy (memory, for example), the effects are now trickling down to consumer electronics – like iPads. Other companies such as Nintendo, Microsoft and Sony have all raised prices on devices. 

According to the Labor Department, consumer prices for computer software and accessories were up around 15% from a year earlier in May, while the Department’s measure of wholesale electronic components and accessories shot up 27% from a year earlier last month. 

 When it comes to electricity – the price began to rapidly increase during covid – and it’s now slingshotting even higher. Note the rate of change in the lower panel. 

According to Goldman, data centers will account for nearly half of US growth in power demand through 2030 – and see consumer electricity prices rising around 6% annually in 2026 and 2027. 

The Journal also notes that while tariffs and oil were one-time economic shocks, the AI shock to demand could persist for years. 

That dynamic is reflected in the rally in the shares of chip stocks, which have moved sharply higher on investor expectations of sharply higher demand. Even with a sharp selloff this week, the PHLX Semiconductor Index is up about 150% over the past year.

Of course, more than just chips go into data centers. And like chips, a lot of the other things that go into building and running a data center are used widely across the economy. That could raise costs for a variety of businesses, which may then try to recoup those costs by charging consumers higher prices.

In some instances, the AI build-out could also add to labor costs. Wages for workers who are in demand from data-center construction have been picking up: Average hourly earnings for electrical and wiring-installation contractors were up 6.5% in April from a year earlier, which compared with 3.6% for all private-sector workers. -WSJ

Still, economics aren’t predicting an AI-fueled inflation surge like we saw during Covid. 

On The Other Side Of This – Disinflation?

In November, now-Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh wrote in a WSJ op-ed that “AI will be a significant disinflationary force, increasing productivity and bolstering American competitiveness,” arguing “productivity improvements should drive significant increases in real take-home wages. A 1-percentage-point increase in annual productivity growth would double standards of living within a single generation.” 

Yet, UBS economists think that the delta between the current building frenzy and AI lowering prices will be at least a couple of years. 

According to a Monday survey by the National Association for Business Economics, 81% of those polled said the AI build-out will add to inflation over the next year.

“In the first phase of any major technological revolution, you tend to have a strain on limited resources, and that tends to put upward pressure on prices,” EY-Parthenon chief economist Gregory Daco – president of NABE – told The Journal. 

TL;DR – the AI build-out may keep inflation broadly elevated, and at some point it may all be worth it in the form of disinflationary productivity. Then again, who’s going to buy anything when tens of millions are without jobs that are now done by AI?

Summary

• 45,000 Reported Missing On Independent Monitoring Platform
• US Phase One Of Humanitarian Response Begins
• Buildings collapsed in several districts of Caracas
• Venezuela declared a state of emergency after the earthquakes 
• Secretary of State Marco Rubio Deploys First Responders 
• Trump Says “U.S.A. stands ready, willing, and able to help” 
• USGS Says Quakes May Prompt “International Response” 
• USGS Fears Death Toll Ranging Between 10k – 100k 

Spanish-language news outlet UHN Plus reports: 

Independent monitoring platforms and missing persons search pages unofficially estimate between 39,000 and 40,000 reports of people unaccounted for following the devastating earthquake in Venezuela.

🇻🇪‼️ | Plataformas independientes de monitoreo y páginas de búsqueda de desaparecidos estiman de manera extraoficial entre 39.000 y 40.000 reportes de personas sin localizar tras el devastador terremoto en Venezuela. pic.twitter.com/zpmdaREJXl

— UHN Plus (@UHN_Plus) June 25, 2026

Nearly 45,000 reported missing on a website called “Reconectemos a cada familia” …

Some of the missing include:

Phase One Of Humanitarian Response Begins 

Earlier, Secretary of State Marco Rubio provided reporters with an update on America’s efforts to help Venezuelans after two massive earthquakes rocked the Caracas metro area and likely left thousands dead.

“We’re already deploying search and rescue teams from Fairfax County, Virginia, and Los Angeles. There will be some others we’ll add. That’s their most immediate need right now, is search and rescue efforts- they have much of collapsed buildings. And so they’ll need a lot of help in terms of digging through that,” Rubio said.

He added, “We’ve already stood up our disaster response teams at the Department of State and our humanitarian efforts. It’s something we did very well in Jamaica, after that storm, and it’s something we’re really prepared to do now.”

Any U.S. government-led humanitarian response would likely include naval medical support, potentially involving hospital ships such as the USNS Comfort (T-AH-20) and USNS Mercy (T-AH-19). However, there is no official update on whether either vessel is currently ready for rapid deployment.

According to USNI News, US Navy deployments in the Caribbean Sea include:

A single ship from the Iwo Jima Amphibious Ready Group is operating in the Caribbean Sea after a 10-month deployment. USS Fort Lauderdale (LPD-28) remains in the region after USS Iwo Jima (LHD-7) and the 22nd Marine Expeditionary Unit returned in early June from deployment. The 24th MEU replaced the 22nd MEU as the “immediate crisis response force” and will be spread throughout the region instead of deploying with an Amphibious Ready Group, USNI News reported. Littoral Combat Ship USS Billings (LCS-15) is also operating in the Caribbean Sea. Billings is based at Naval Station Mayport, Fla.

Deployment Map:

Rubio’s earlier statement that U.S. search-and-rescue teams are already deploying suggests the Trump administration is entering the first phase of a broader humanitarian mission.

Given the sheer scale of the disaster, larger U.S. assets – potentially including naval medical support, airlift capacity, and logistics units – may soon be headed to the Latin American country.

Stunning Aerial Footage Of Quake Damage 

WATCH: Aerial footage shows extensive damage across La Guaira, Venezuela. pic.twitter.com/I0OxESLs6C

— Scope Report (@ScopeReport_) June 25, 2026

Chevron Says Venezuelan Oil Operations Continue 

Chevron said its oil operations in Venezuela remain operational as of Thursday morning and all employees are accounted for after twin quakes overnight. 

“As a longtime employer and partner in Venezuela, we stand in solidarity with the country and its people during this difficult time,” the oil/gas giant said in a statement Thursday, quoted by Bloomberg.

“We remain committed to supporting our employees and the communities surrounding our facilities and ensuring the continued safe operation of our assets.”

The outlet noted:

Venezuela’s key refining hub near the quake’s epicenter in Paraguaná and the Jose export terminal in Anzoátegui are operating normally, according to a person with knowledge of the situation. There has been no impact on oil processing or loadings, the person said.

Trump Says US “Ready To Help”

The twin quakes that rocked the Caracas metro area overnight may result in a death toll ranging between 10,000 and 100,000, according to U.S. Geological Survey estimates.

USGS said, “Past red alerts have required a national or international response,” adding, “Estimated economic losses are 2-20% of Venezuela’s GDP.”

Even before the quakes, Venezuela was already economically devastated under the socialist Maduro regime. The sheer magnitude of the disaster will likely prompt an international response led by Washington.

“The U.S.A. stands ready, willing, and able to help! I have instructed all agencies of our government to get ready to move quickly,” President Trump wrote on Truth Social.

The president added, “We will be there for our new and great friends. Early reports are not good!!!”

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio wrote on X, “America stands with the Venezuelan people during this difficult time, and at the direction of President Trump, the State Department is immediately deploying search-and-rescue teams, medical resources, and humanitarian assistance to Venezuela.”

The United States extends our deepest condolences to the people of Venezuela following the devastating earthquakes.

Our hearts are with all those who have lost loved ones, those injured, and the courageous rescue workers working tirelessly in the aftermath.

America stands…

— Secretary Marco Rubio (@SecRubio) June 25, 2026

Acting President Delcy Rodriguez declared a state of emergency shortly after the quakes. She said that Simón Bolívar International Airport in Caracas was closed on Thursday due to damage.

Rodriguez said the number of deaths so far totals 164 people and that around 1,000 people were injured.

Dramatic footage:

⚡️Venezuela: Before and After a devastating earthquake pic.twitter.com/B6NbtjwWqR

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) June 25, 2026

New footage shows devastation in La Guaira, Venezuela caused by powerful earthquakes. pic.twitter.com/9jr4B6n1RG

— AZ Intel (@AZ_Intel_) June 25, 2026

Utter devastation seen across the Northern Venezuelan coastal city of La Guaira, following tonight’s pair of major earthquakes, measuring 7.2 and 7.5 magnitude with an epicenter just to the west of Caracas. pic.twitter.com/BQv4YixUiB

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) June 25, 2026

The official death toll in Venezuela is 32. The US Geological Survey’s own models estimate the real number will most likely reach the thousands, with a serious chance of passing 10,000 or maybe towards 100,000 as per some reports. The most important figure in this disaster is the…

— Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ (@shanaka86) June 25, 2026

Desplome de edificios en #Caracas #Venezuela con una intensidad de 7.5 pic.twitter.com/3rMmejf5My

— Neegann® (@NEEGANN) June 24, 2026

Latest headlines, courtesy of Bloomberg:

Devastating Earthquakes

• At least 164 people have died and 971 were injured after two powerful earthquakes struck Venezuela on Wednesday evening, according to Acting President Delcy Rodriguez on Thursday 

• The earthquakes measured 7.2 and 7.5 magnitude and struck less than a minute apart on Wednesday evening, with the epicenter in Yaracuy state west of Caracas 

• Around 30 aftershocks have been recorded following the two strongest quakes, with 20 aftershocks recorded as of Wednesday evening 

• The earthquakes toppled buildings, knocked down power lines, and devastated Caracas’s main airport

Emergency Response

• Venezuela declared a state of emergency after the earthquakes 

• US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the United States is immediately deploying search and rescue teams, medical resources, and humanitarian assistance to Venezuela

• Acting President Delcy Rodríguez spoke with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio by phone after the earthquakes 

Debt Restructuring Plans

• Venezuela is set to reveal a $240 billion debt pile, much higher than previously estimated market figures of $150 billion to $200 billion, as the country embarks on the biggest sovereign restructuring in history, according to unidentified people familiar with the country’s plans 

• The Rodríguez administration is seeking a restructuring agreement with creditors before the end of the year and has retained Centerview Partners bne 

Political Developments

• The Inter-American Development Bank recognized Venezuela’s Economy Vice President Calixto Ortega Sanchez as the new governor representing the country to the bank on Wednesday Bloomberg First Word 6/24

• Acting President Delcy Rodríguez said Venezuela was looking to strengthen cooperation with Colombia’s incoming administration 

• Delcy Rodríguez has been crisscrossing Venezuela for months in what she describes as a pilgrimage, attempting to shed the baggage of a deeply unpopular government and position herself as its standard-bearer since Nicolás Maduro’s ouster 

“Heavy Casualties” After Massive Twin Quakes Rock Venezuela, Topple Buildings; “International Response May Be Needed”

Twin earthquakes rocked Venezuela on Wednesday evening, collapsing entire apartment buildings across Caracas and leaving behind scenes of widespread devastation.

The USGS said the first quake registered a magnitude of 7.1, with an epicenter near Morón, about 104 miles west of Caracas, at a depth of 8 miles. One minute later, a similarly massive magnitude 7.5 quake struck nearby, roughly 10 miles southwest of Morón, at a depth of 6 miles. Remarkably, the dual quake was followed almost immediately across the world by a 6.9 magnitude temblor in northern Japan, which rattled buildings in Tokyo.

USGS issued a red-alert mass-casualty warning due to the combination of shallow depth, heavy population exposure, vulnerable buildings, and estimated losses large enough to require an international response.

“Red alert for shaking-related fatalities and economic losses. High casualties and extensive damage are probable and the disaster is likely widespread. Past red alerts have required a national or international response,” USGS said, adding, “Estimated economic losses are 2-20% GDP of Venezuela.”

In the Palos Grandes neighborhood in eastern Caracas, residents tried frantically to rescue people trapped under the debris of collapsed buildings, Bloomberg reports. Terrified families remained in the streets as the capital was hit by aftershocks. Venezuelan migrants in Colombia and elsewhere sought to reach relatives, but cellphone coverage was down in swathes of the country.

The early footage emerging from the devastation is dramatic:

Devastating scenes emerge from La Guaira, Venezuela, following a powerful earthquake that struck the region. pic.twitter.com/fBMIDWuabP

— Breaking911 (@Breaking911) June 24, 2026

Fishermen in the sea off the coast of La Guaira record the moments after the earthquake with dust covering large parts of the coast as a result of building collapses#Venezuela pic.twitter.com/D8KNwLkLDf

— CNW (@ConflictsW) June 25, 2026

Local news showed significant damage to the capital’s airport, with parts of the roof collapsing and throwing up thick clouds of gray dust. 

Passengers panic and run for cover at Simón Bolívar International Airport in Maiquetía, Venezuela, as the terminal shakes and power flickers, resulting from a massive 7.5 magnitude earthquake off the coast of Caracas. pic.twitter.com/uWN4ZqFjOZ

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) June 24, 2026

Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello said in a national address that some houses and buildings have collapsed. He warned residents to stay outside due to the risk from aftershocks. Cabello said that states including Trujillo, Yaracuy, Carabobo, Miranda, Aragua and La Guaira were also affected.

Immense damage seen to buildings across Venezuela’s capital of Caracas, following what now appears to have been a “double-event” 7.2 and 7.5 magnitude earthquake back-to-back near the coast in Northern Venezuela, according to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). pic.twitter.com/XoG2jSJMf2

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) June 24, 2026

Authorities haven’t yet published estimates of the number of dead or injured. There were no official reports of damage to the nation’s oil infrastructure. Yet footage shows damage to one of Venezuela’s key petrochemical plants. 

Así está la situación en Venezuela en la planta de Pequiven en Morón en el estado Carabobo luego del sismo pic.twitter.com/IFp1pGjQFm

— Jesús Medina Ezaine (@jesusmedinae) June 25, 2026

How rare were tonight’s twin quakes? Well… 

Pretty rare earthquake activity tonight on Earth.

Both of these things happening within 2 hours of each other:

1 in 1,000 to 1,200 years

• A “doublet” earthquake in Venezuela (two quakes of similar magnitude in the exact same spot)
• A totally separate 6.9+ quake…

— Noah Bergren (@NbergWX) June 25, 2026

The closest historical comparison to the twin quakes this evening likely dates back to the March 26, 1812, Caracas earthquake sequence, which was described as twin destructive shocks within 30 minutes. That quake led to an estimated death toll of 15,000 to 20,000, while a USGS historical summary says it may have claimed about 30,000 lives.

BREAKING: Multiple structures have reportedly collapsed in Caracas, Venezuela, following a powerful earthquake that struck the region. pic.twitter.com/9KSN4srhwB

— Breaking911 (@Breaking911) June 24, 2026

Quake activity elsewhere…

That is not good. pic.twitter.com/3u8MsW2blB

— SpaceWeatherNews (@SunWeatherMan) June 24, 2026

And Japan. 

Second big quake today pic.twitter.com/wWKsq0Ioqx

— SpaceWeatherNews (@SunWeatherMan) June 24, 2026

There were no immediate reports of damage to Venezuela’s oil facilities, according to people familiar with the situation. The country’s refining hub in Paraguaná, 225 kilometers (140 miles) west of the epicenter, continued operations as usual. Work at the port of Jose complex and at the Puerto La Cruz refinery was unaffected.

The disaster will further strain the nation’s crisis-hit economy. The country is reeling from one of the world’s fastest inflation rates and rolling power outages. As such, the quake could open a window for President Trump to offer emergency aid and logistical support, potentially creating the first step toward a broader US-backed reconstruction effort in Venezuela.

*Developing…

Submitted by QTR’s Fringe Finance

One of the more embarrassing habits of modern finance is its insistence on pretending the stock market has some integrity left.

Capital, we used to think, flowed to the most productive businesses. Prices reflected fundamentals. Risk was priced. The market, in the long run, separated signal from noise and rewarded cash generation over fantasy. That is the civics-class version of markets, and at this point it bears no resemblance to the one we actually trade in.

The market’s core failure right now is not simply overvaluation. Markets have always produced overvalued stocks. The deeper problem is that speculative inflation can now be mechanically converted into benchmark legitimacy and then forcibly distributed to passive investors as “diversification.”

In other words, the modern market increasingly allows stocks to get bid up through narrative, call option activity and momentum, then ratifies those bloated valuations through index inclusion, and finally pipes them directly into the retirement system through ETFs, mutual funds and model portfolios.

This is why we see ridiculous things like companies with negative earnings outperforming companies with positive earnings. “Something is broken in price discovery…” wrote Apollo’s Chief Economist about this chart last week:

He’s right. It’s not price discovery. It is a structural conveyor belt for institutionalizing air pockets and gutting the once conservative retirement and pension accounts millions of Americans depend on to be there for them in due time.

I laid this out in detail using SpaceX as an example on a recent interview I did with Adam Taggart. I used SpaceX as an example not because it’s the first company to ever do this — hell, I saw it all the time with Chinese reverse takeover scams back in the day — but because it’s the most recent…and definitely the most egregious.

The same critique people are beginning to make about SpaceX valuation applies more broadly to the public market. Narrative and scarcity can overwhelm cash economics for a very long time, especially when investors are convinced they are looking at a once-in-a-generation story.

In private markets that can happen through funding rounds, manufactured scarcity and marks that drift upward because nobody has to test them in public every day. Until, as we’re seeing in private credit, people eventually discover the “price” they were quoted doesn’t reflect reality and they rush to get their money back.

In public markets, the mechanism is different but the result rhymes: options flows, benchmark inclusion and passive ownership can all work together to preserve valuations that have floated far above what the underlying cash economics would ordinarily justify. And the rush to the exits ends the same way: there isn’t enough room for everyone to get out, all at once.

🔥 50% OFF FOR LIFE: Using this coupon entitles you to 50% off an annual subscription to Fringe Finance for life: Get 50% off forever

That is the part that should make people uncomfortable, because it means the market is no longer merely tolerating excess. It is operationalizing it. The sequence is now obvious enough that it should not require euphemism.

First comes the inflation phase. A company captures the market’s imagination with a story large enough to suspend ordinary valuation discipline. Maybe it is AI. Maybe it is autonomous driving. Maybe it is space. Maybe it is simply the promise of scale, disruption and a giant total addressable market that no one will ever bother discounting back to the present. Whatever the story is, the important point is that the story arrives first and the cash generation can show up later, if at all.

Second, the options market does what it now routinely does in modern finance: it takes a speculative move and turns it into a reflexive one. Call buying forces dealer hedging. Dealer hedging forces more buying. The stock rises because the stock is rising. Price momentum becomes its own justification. “The market” appears to be voting in favor of the company, when in reality part of the move may have nothing to do with a sober reassessment of long-term cash flows and everything to do with plumbing. That alone would be enough to cheapen the credibility of price discovery. But the real damage comes from what happens next.

For the better part of the last two decades, and especially in the post-crisis era, markets have also been conditioned by a policy regime that repeatedly suppressed the cost of risk, flooded the system with liquidity and trained investors to expect intervention when things broke. The lesson absorbed by an entire generation of speculators was not that risk had disappeared, but that it had become someone else’s problem. Drawdowns were increasingly treated as temporary policy events. Volatility was an inconvenience. Valuation discipline became optional. If enough liquidity can be sprayed into the system whenever it seizes up, the market stops functioning as a mechanism for pricing risk and starts functioning as a machine for routing around it.

So by the time a stock has been inflated by story, momentum and options reflexivity, it is already trading in an environment where skepticism has been structurally disadvantaged. Then comes the canonization phase.

Third, once the market cap is bloated enough, index inclusion becomes automatic. The stock enters the benchmark not because anyone sat down and decided it was sensibly valued, but because the rules say it is now too large to ignore. At that point the character of ownership changes. Passive funds buy it because they have to. Retirement accounts buy it because they have to. Target-date funds buy it because they have to. Model portfolios buy it because they have to. Financial advisors buy it because “the index” is sold as prudence itself. What began as a valuation inflated by narrative, liquidity and options mechanics is suddenly institutionalized by passive ownership.

This is where the market stops being a market and starts looking more like a laundering operation.

A bloated valuation gets transformed into benchmark legitimacy, and benchmark legitimacy gets transformed into compulsory ownership by people who are explicitly trying not to speculate. The retiree buying an S&P 500 ETF is not making an active judgment on the most inflated companies in the index. He is trying to avoid making active judgments altogether. That is the whole point. But the system has arranged things so that his caution becomes the exit liquidity for somebody else’s euphoria.

And then the distortion deepens further, because overvalued names do not merely sit inside the index. They become the index, as we discussed in my above interview.

This is the part the passive revolution would rather not talk about. The benchmark is supposed to be the antidote to individual-stock insanity. You may not know which company is overhyped, fraudulent, or structurally unsound, but the index protects you because you own everything. Diversification is the defense. Except diversification stops working the way people imagine it does when the same overvalued names swell large enough to dominate the benchmark itself. At that point the index is no longer neutralizing the bubble. It is warehousing it.

And because this process is mediated through “passive” products, it becomes almost invisible. There is no dramatic moment when someone rings a bell and announces that the benchmark now contains a giant blister of overvaluation at its center. No one says the quiet part out loud: that a stock whose valuation was inflated by options flows and euphoric liquidity is now being preserved by forced passive ownership, and that this is happening inside the very products sold to the public as the safest, most diversified entrance into markets. Instead, the distortion gets laundered into respectability. Once a company sits inside the index, skepticism begins to sound unserious. If it’s in everyone’s retirement account, how crazy can it be?

Quite crazy, actually. Because if options, liquidity and narrative can help create the inflation, and index inclusion can help preserve it, then the crash mechanism is not exactly difficult to imagine. Once the story breaks, or liquidity tightens, or the options reflex flips, the same structure that held the valuation aloft can produce an air pocket on the way down. Passive ownership does not eliminate volatility. It can concentrate it. A stock that has become a major index weight does not just fall as an individual company. It drags on the benchmark itself. The “safe” diversified vehicle becomes the transmission mechanism through which the excess is spread to everyone, which is why I argued days ago that SpaceX could become “systemic”.

Quick note: this is why I own equal weighted ETFs for the S&P and not market cap weighted ETFs. In RSP (instead of SPY), every company carries approximately the same weighting.

That single structural difference dramatically changes the risk profile. Technology falls to around 18.27% of the fund instead of nearly 36%. Industrials become a much larger piece at 14.69%, financial services rise to 14.41%, and healthcare accounts for roughly 10.91%.

Instead of being overwhelmingly dependent on AI enthusiasm and mega-cap growth, RSP spreads exposure across the broader American economy. When I decided to completely stop trading and turn my last portfolio over to advisors, I requested SPY be excluded in favor of RSP for future recurring buys, as I expect it will plunge less than SPY if the market starts to tank.

The incentive is obvious. If a company can get its valuation high enough, through narrative, momentum, options activity and a market environment conditioned to treat risk as a rounding error, it can cross into a different category of ownership altogether. If executive compensation is based on milestones tied to market cap, revenue and KPIs and not actual profitability, you can become a trillionaire on three companies that have cumulatively made barely $50 billion in profit.

It no longer needs every marginal buyer to make a fresh, disciplined case for the business. It gets absorbed into the benchmark. From there, a portion of demand becomes automatic. Valuation no longer has to be defended in the old-fashioned way, through cash flows, margins and capital discipline, because the market structure itself begins doing part of the work.

That is the scandal. Not that some stocks are expensive. Not that markets occasionally get excited. Not that manias happen. The scandal is that the architecture of the modern market increasingly allows valuations to be inflated by reflexive mechanics, ratified by index rules and then distributed into the retirement system under the label of prudence.

At some point, we should be able to ask whether this still deserves to be called a market in the traditional sense. Markets are supposed to allocate capital, price risk and reward productive enterprise over fantasy. But what do you call a system in which cash-losing companies can outrun cash-generating ones for years, where options flows can overwhelm fundamental analysis, where a long era of monetary excess has dulled the fear of downside to the point that risk itself starts to feel optional, and where the benchmark products sold as prudent long-term investing become the vessel through which concentrated valuation distortions are transmitted to the public?

You call it structurally broken. OK, or, at a minimum, you stop pretending not to notice, for f*ck’s sake.

Because the most absurd part of this entire arrangement is not the distortion itself. It is the refusal to ask serious questions about it. We are now far enough into this cycle of options-driven inflation, passive absorption and index concentration that the mechanism is visible in plain sight. It is not some fringe theory. It is a description of how modern market plumbing interacts with investor behavior, monetary excess and benchmark design.

So the real question is no longer whether the market can keep getting weirder. Of course it can. The real question is when we stop treating these distortions as amusing side effects and start treating them as evidence that the structure itself is rotten. When do we stop calling it diversification when the same overvalued names are swelling at the center of every index? When do we stop pretending that forced passive ownership is a neutral outcome rather than a way of institutionalizing euphoria? When do we stop nodding along as options-driven inflation gets converted into benchmark legitimacy and then into retirement-account exposure?

And when, exactly, do we admit that a market which can be gamed this way is not merely overheated, but fundamentally unserious? Sadly, I know the answer. After the wreckage and the crash, when it’s too late.

QTR’s Disclaimer: Please read my full legal disclaimer on my About page here. This post represents my opinions only. In addition, please understand I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. Contributor posts and aggregated posts have been hand selected by me, have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors. They are either submitted to QTR by their author, reprinted under a Creative Commons license with my best effort to uphold what the license asks, or with the permission of the author.

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I may or may not own names I write about and are watching. Sometimes I’m bullish without owning things, sometimes I’m bearish and do own things. Just assume my positions could be exactly the opposite of what you think they are just in case. If I’m long I could quickly be short and vice versa. I won’t update my positions.

As of May 20, 2026 I personally no longer actively trade (read my story here). My investing/saving is done by recurring contributions mostly to sector ETFs and a few select equities, trusted third parties who oversee my accounts, and advisors. Such advisors or funds, through individual equities, options, index funds, mutual funds, ETFs, or other securities, may have positions in, exposure to, or holdings of names mentioned herein that I know nothing about. Basically, via index funds, ETFs and individual equities it is possible I could own, have exposure to, or not own anything at any point. As of the same date, May 20, 2026, in an attempt to lead a healthier lifestyle, I’ve also excluded myself from fantasy sports, sports betting, online and in-person casinos and prediction markets.

And all positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice and at any point I can be long, short or neutral on any position. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. If you see numbers and calculations of any sort, assume they are wrong and double check them. I failed Algebra in 8th grade and topped off my high school math accolades by getting a D- in remedial Calculus my senior year, before becoming an English major in college so I could bullshit my way through things easier.

The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. I edit after my posts are published because I’m impatient and lazy, so if you see a typo, check back in a half hour. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important.

After a solid 2Y auction and a subpar 5Y auction earlier this week, moments ago we got the week’s final Treasury issuance when the US auctioned off $44BN in 7Y paper in a perfectly average sale.

Starting at the top, the bond priced at a high yield  of 4.260%, down modestly from 4.290% last month and in the middle of a range established in late-2023 after which the 7Y has traded between 3.50% and 5%. The auction also priced on the screws with the When Issued which was also at 4.260. 

The bid to cover was 2.498, just under last month’s 2.516 and on top of the 6-auction average of 2.488%.

The internals were a bit weaker: after Indirect bidders took down a record 78.4% in May, today their demand crashed to earth and foreign buyers ended up taking down just 57.55%, the lowest since Sept 26. And with Directs taking down 29.7%, a big jump from 11.2% in May but in line with the recent average, Dealers were left holding 12.75%, up from 10.42% a month ago and the highest since November.

Overall, this was a average-to-weak auction, with sufficiently good metrics even if the internals were a bit on the weak side. Not that the market cared (about this, or anything else); with 10Y yields extending their drop all day today, the meh auction barely registered. 

Via American Greatness,

A federal judge on Wednesday permanently blocked key portions of President Donald Trump’s executive order overhauling federal election procedures, ruling that the president exceeded his constitutional authority by attempting to impose new voting requirements without congressional approval.

U.S. District Judge Denise Casper, an appointee of former President Barack Obama, concluded that the Constitution gives primary authority over elections to the states and Congress, not the executive branch.

The ruling makes permanent a preliminary injunction Casper issued last year in a lawsuit filed by Democratic attorneys general from 19 states.

“While the Constitution vests the President with ‘executive Power’ and commands him to ‘take Care that the Laws be faithfully executed,’ it does not grant the President any specific powers over elections,” Casper wrote.

“As a result, the President ‘plays no direct role in the process of appointing electors,’ nor does he have authority to control the state officials who do,” she added.

Trump’s executive order sought to require documentary proof of U.S. citizenship to register to vote, prohibit states from counting mail ballots received after Election Day even if postmarked on time, and withhold certain federal funds from states that declined to comply.

Casper ruled that the administration lacked the authority to impose those changes through executive action.

In her 59-page opinion, the judge also rejected the administration’s justification for the order, writing that the Justice Department failed to establish the widespread election problems it cited in defending the policy.

“There is no evidence in this record of widespread ‘illegal voting, discrimination, fraud, and other forms of malfeasance and error’ within American elections, which the Executive Order purports to safeguard against,” Casper wrote.

The judge also concluded that the order would have disenfranchised thousands of voters.

The decision is another legal setback for the administration’s efforts to repair federal election procedures. Courts have repeatedly blocked or limited several election-related initiatives advanced during Trump’s second term.

Additional lawsuits are challenging a separate executive order aimed at creating a nationwide voter database and tightening mail voting requirements. Earlier this week, another federal judge blocked the administration’s attempt to use an immigration database to verify voter rolls, while courts have also rejected Justice Department efforts to obtain state voter registration records.

Despite the court rulings, Trump has continued urging Congress to enact proof-of-citizenship requirements through legislation.

The Republican-backed SAVE America Act passed the House but remains stalled in the Senate.

Trump renewed that effort Wednesday, saying he would withhold his signature from a bipartisan housing bill until Congress approves voter citizenship verification requirements.

By Molly Schwartz, cross-asset strategist at Rabobank

A river in Egypt

Scott Bessent took to CNBC’s Squawk Box yesterday to opine on the situation with Iran. Bessent echoed Trump’s comments that any released Iranian assets are to remain under US Treasury oversight and are restricted to use for food and medicine. However, money is fungible, and any released cash that is used to help civilians may mean more cash from other places that can be used to support the IRGC’s interests

Bessent’s comments also called attention to another philosophical outlook on the war and the Administration’s initially stated— though seemingly not truly intended—goal of regime change. This is where the waters gets murky, and where we can climb into our Felucca and begin our journey along a river in Egypt, drifting, perhaps, into a bit of strategic “denial” about what regime change actually means. If, hypothetically of course, Operation Epic Fury succeeded in asserting regime change in Iran, where does the US go from here? If the new Ayatollah says he is willing to table plans of further enriching uranium and wants to align itself with US interests, should the US just keep firing missiles? Do you keep Iranian assets under lock and key, even if the regime has shown you that it has changed?

.@SecScottBessent: “Dollar dominance is essential, and everything @POTUS is doing here — if you look, the new Venezuela… the dollar is going to be the centerpiece of their trade… We’re seeing in the Iranian negotiations, the Iranians will be invoicing in dollars. Everything… pic.twitter.com/5IsPYo8aSh

— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) June 24, 2026

Bessent said himself, “we didn’t have a regime change, but we have changed the regime.” If that is the genuine perspective of the Trump Administration, then the deal may not be as bad for the US as many perceive it to be. As our Global Strategist, Michael Every, has noted on multiple occasions, show of strength means everything in the arena of Middle Eastern geopolitics. There is a possibility that the current hardliners in the IRGC aren’t actually so hardline anymore, but are only presenting as such. Note that this is not a new base case for our outlook by any means (you can read more about our Hormuz outlook here), but food for thought.

If the regime truly has changed, this also could have big implications for USD dominance. Bessent noted that a born-again Venezuela is shifting back towards USD invoicing, and that post-deal Iran is likely to do so as well.

Brent crude oil fell below $75/bbl for the first time since the war in Iran began, sending US Treasury markets into a tailspin. US 2-year yields dropped almost 6bp to 4.21, while the 10-year sunk almost 10bp—the largest one-day downward move since October 2025. With “peace in the Middle East,” the case for hikes is losing water by the day, with the market now pricing in 27bp worth of hikes by October, and only 40bp worth of hikes at the peak—a significant downgrade from Monday, when two full hikes had been priced in by the April 2027 FOMC decision.

Such a dramatic move in rates would normally suggest a weaker dollar, but USD was actually the best-performing G10 currency on a one-day view and the best month-to-date. The DXY index continued its climb from last week’s FOMC meeting to 101.6—the highest level since May 2025. Meanwhile, EUR/USD broke below crucial support at 1.14, fueling additional EUR selling, with the pair trading at 1.1356 at the time of writing. While the following appears to be more of an instance of correlation rather than causation, it is also important to note that yesterday’s move coincided with comments from Bessent—perhaps another slow turn of the Felucca—that USD can remain strong even when interest rates are being cut.

While USD is soaring, JPY is plummeting. USD/JPY spent the day yesterday approaching the July 3, 2024 high of 162, with the 14D RSI at 71.83 suggesting that USD/JPY is overbought. According to Bloomberg, Bessent and Japanese Finance Minister Katayama spoke over the phone, with Katayama telling reporters that “she and Bessent agreed to take ‘bold’ steps on currencies if needed,” and said the nations are increasingly “aligned” on foreign-exchange policy.

The Bank of Canada released its Summary of Deliberations from the June 10 decision, written on papyrus. Recent Canadian economic data suggest that the Canadian economy has slipped into a technical recession, with two consecutive quarters of negative quarterly growth. The Governing Council piled into a felucca of their own, racing up de Nile, justifying that higher-frequency data suggest a “resumption of growth in the second quarter,” and that while the Canadian economy is weak, it is “not clearly in a recession.”

French President Emmanuel Macron has announced yet another highly provocative naval seizure of a Russian so-called shadow fleet vessel. 

“On Tuesday, the French navy boarded the oil tanker Deliver as it was passing off the coast of Sicily in breach of maritime law,” Macron wrote in a post on X, revealing the prior interdiction that took place earlier in the week.

Reports say it flew a Cameroonian flag and was sailing from Russia’s Baltic port of Primorsk, whereupon it was boarded by French forces over a falsified registration, according to the French maritime prefecture.

France’s navy escorted then the tanker to an anchorage location, where it was subject to deeper inspections my maritime authorities.

It marks no less than the fifth such boarding of a ‘shadow fleet’ vessel suspected of transiting sanctioned Russian goods or energy off a European coastline since September.

“We will not allow the ‘shadow fleet’ to circumvent sanctions and finance Russia’s war effort,” Macron said.

The apparent legal justification France’s navy has relied on for such actions is the practice of “flag-hopping” – which involves a crew repeatedly changing displayed flags, along with often invalid registrations to thwart international tracking monitors.

The last several seized tankers were also flying flags of African nations, and these interdictions have stretched back through last year. 

France’s military released footage of the boarding of the ‘Delivery’…

French President Emmanuel Macron has announced that the French military intercepted the Russian “shadow fleet” tanker ‘Deliver’ on Tuesday as it transited off the coast of Sicily in violation of maritime law. pic.twitter.com/T3sE95BrT1

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) June 25, 2026

In some instances, Russia has been sending military escorts – which of course has seen French and European militaries hold off executing any action.

As a result of this latest intercept, it’s likely Russia’s navy will increase its military escorts, which has been more common in northern European waters, given the proximity to Russia.

By Irina Slav for OilPrice.com

President Donald Trump has listed Exxon, Chevron, Shell, and BP as being among companies responsible for excessively high fuel prices, following the announcement of a federal government probe into price-gouging earlier in the week.

“Oil prices have come down so much and we are not seeing anything at the pump by comparison the way they should be,” the U.S. president told media, as quoted by the BBC. “We should be, in my opinion, at $2.25 [a gallon] right now at the pump and we are higher than that.”

The U.S. national average for a gallon of regular gasoline was $3.928 as of Wednesday, down from $4.0250 a week ago, but up from $3.2240 a year ago, according to AAA data. GasBuddy reported a national average of $3.85 per gallon as of Monday. Still, fuel prices have been on a decline for six weeks in a row, with diesel also dipping below $5 per gallon for the first time in weeks, bringing relief to industrial fuel consumers.

“The big Oil Companies are not dropping their price at the pump commensurate with the sharply lower prices they are paying for Oil. Those prices are dropping ‌like a rock! In other words, customers are being “gouged”,” Trump wrote on TruthSocial late on Tuesday. “I have instructed the DOJ to immediately start looking into this. Gasoline prices better start going down a lot faster than what I’m seeing!” the U.S. president also wrote.

In response, the American Petroleum Institute said that retail fuel prices “don’t move in lockstep with crude oil”. “Our industry shares the goal of delivering relief at the pump and restoring stability to global energy markets,” API spokeswoman Bethany Williams also said.

“President Trump was clear all along that there would be short-term, temporary disruptions to energy markets, and that oil and gas prices will quickly fall as soon as the Iran situation is resolved,” a White House spokesperson told media, as quoted by the BBC.

Readers were warned as early as late January to front-run the coming memory shortage by purchasing their favorite electronics, whether PCs, laptops, TVs, smartphones, or anything else dependent on high-end memory chips, as unprecedented data-center demand was already beginning to emerge.

Fast forward nearly five months, and just two weeks after Apple CEO Tim Cook warned that “price increases are unavoidable” for laptops and other devices, a Wall Street Journal report has confirmed that those hikes have now been passed along, potentially delivering sticker shock to customers.

Here’s what happened earlier: The Apple Online Store briefly went down, and when it came back online, prices for Mac computers jumped 15% to 20%, while iPad prices increased 15% to 25%.

The company briefly took down its Apple Online Store early this morning as it typically does when announcing new products. When it came back online, the price tags for Mac computers rose roughly 15% to 20% and iPad prices rose 15% to 25%. Among the price increases, the base MacBook Air rose $200 to $1,299; the base MacBook Pro increased $300 to $1,999; the entry-level MacBook Neo increased $100 to $699. The iPad Air increased $150 to $749 and the iPad Pro increased $200 to $1,199. -WSJ

Vision Pro became even more unaffordable.

*APPLE RAISES VISION PRO HEADSET PRICE TO $3,699 FROM $3,499

*APPLE HOMEPOD NOW $349, HOMEPOD MINI IS $129, APPLE TV TO $199

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 25, 2026

However, iPhone prices remained unchanged, but the company told the outlet in a statement that additional price hikes could be on the way.

“We have now reached a point where we need to begin raising prices,” Apple said in the statement. “We have never seen a component price increase this much, this quickly.”

An Apple spokesperson placed the blame on the “rapid expansion of AI data centers, which has created an extraordinary surge in demand for memory and storage,” and this is why component prices surged.

Earlier this month, Cook told WSJ that price increases had become “unavoidable” because of higher component costs, adding, “There’s less supply at a time when consumers want devices, and the memory guys are passing along huge price increases.”

Apple has historically revealed price hikes with new launches of iPhones, iPads, and other devices, making this overnight price hike extraordinarily rare.  

The high-end chip market is dominated by US-based Micron and South Korea’s SK Hynix and Samsung, which have all seen massive demand for high-bandwidth memory from AI “hyperscalers” such as Google, Meta, and Amazon.

Apple’s price hikes come hours after Micron delivered blowout quarterly earnings, touting gross profit margins that topped 80%. Shares soared nearly 18% in premarket trading.

Micron executives told investors that “tight conditions” will persist beyond 2027 and that only suggests further price hikes are coming not just for Apple but also for other major big tech firms that sell devices.

Micron Chief Business Officer Sumit Sadana said in a WSJ interview last night that “a couple of the customers who were being very aggressive with pricing at that time were not constructive,” without naming Apple…

Sadana noted, “A lot of the industry investments got shut down in 2023 because of really poor pricing and really poor margins.”

A recent Morgan Stanley note found that memory prices have climbed sixfold over the past year, with new manufacturing capacity likely to take years to build and ramp up.

The iPhone price hike may be unavoidable: JPMorgan analysts estimate DRAM and NAND could jump from roughly 10% to 15% of an iPhone’s total component cost today to more than 45% by 2027.

Memory price spikes are already showing up in the Producer Price Index for semiconductor and other electronic component manufacturing.

At what point does Trump start raging at soaring memory prices

PPI Electronic Components is pulling entire core index higher pic.twitter.com/v9ufHmx0gG

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 11, 2026

… and at what point does President Trump start raging at memory prices, just as his administration has successfully sent oil prices crashing by entering a diplomatic phase with Tehran to secure a permanent peace deal?