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USAF More Than Doubles Ondas’ ULTRA Drone Contract As Potential MQ-9 Reaper Alternative Emerges

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USAF More Than Doubles Ondas’ ULTRA Drone Contract As Potential MQ-9 Reaper Alternative Emerges

Thursday’s Department of War contract update signals increased US Air Force investment in long-endurance surveillance drones that could complement the MQ-9 Reaper and help fill intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance mission gaps following reported heavy losses in the US-Iran conflict.

The USAF more than doubled the value of its contract with DZYNE Technologies, now part of Ondas, bringing the total to about $85.6 million.

As we noted last week, DZYNE’s ULTRA platform represents a potential lower-cost Group 5 drone that could complement the MQ-9 Reaper and eventually assume some of its ISR missions.

DoW’s contract update:

DZYNE Technologies LLC, Fairfax, Virginia, has been awarded a $46,087,217 modification (P00003) to a previously awarded contract (FA8691-26-C-B007) for Operational Assessment of Uncrewed Long-Endurance Tactical Reconnaissance Aircraft. This modification brings the total cumulative face value of the contract to $85,643,057 from $39,555,840.

Work will be performed stateside and at overseas locations and is expected to be completed by March 26, 2031. Fiscal 2025 research, development, test, and evaluation funds in the amount of $12,288,390 are being obligated at the time of award. The Air Force Life Cycle Management Center, Dayton, Ohio, is the contracting activity.

Our read here is that DoW’s aircraft description fits DZYNE’s ULTRA surveillance-drone program, developed with the Air Force Research Laboratory. The meaningful boost to the contract shows how urgently the USAF needs to replenish its Group 5 drones, given the reported Reaper losses (upwards of 25% of the fleet) in the US-Iran conflict so far.

2024 image of American MQ-9 Reaper UAV brought down in Yemen’s Marib. ClashReport/X

Another signal that DoW is likely to boost DZYNE’s ULTRA orders even more came at the Air & Space Forces Association’s Air, Space & Cyber Conference earlier this month, when the USAF’s Troy Meink commented on the need to upgrade the US military’s unmanned aircraft fleet over the next six years.

Meink told the audience:

And this is not the only class of autonomous aircraft we are aggressively pursuing. As we saw in Epic Fury, ISR strike platforms have been essential. We have used MQ-9 and even now the ULTRA aircraft to great effect.

Building on these lessons, we are developing a family of low-cost multi-role strike platforms called the Mass Modular Aircraft, or MMAs.

MMAs will provide affordable, attritable, long-range strike, and we will be able to field them at scale. Our intent is to field 100 MMAs in 2029 at even a lower cost than the CCAs and a fraction of the cost of manned aircraft we build today. Then by 2032, 500 of these platforms will join our force operational fleet.

Follow-on orders would likely depend on available funding, with the Trump administration’s proposed record defense budget potentially providing a runway for a lot more orders if passed.

Ondas, the company that acquired DZYNE earlier this year, closed around $7.64 on Friday and has a staggering 41% short float.

Any significant contract news on ULTRA orders, coupled with Wall Street waking up to the fact that this Group 5 drone can replace the Reaper for ISR missions, could spark a squeeze.

Tyler Durden
Sat, 09/26/2026 – 21:35

Southeast Asia Keeps Building Gas Plants Despite Hormuz LNG Shock

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Southeast Asia Keeps Building Gas Plants Despite Hormuz LNG Shock

Authored by Irina Slav via OilPrice.com,

Countries in Southeast Asia are still building natural gas-fired power plants despite the price inflation in gas caused by the Middle East war. Asian countries are also building more LNG import capacity, Global Energy Monitor reported.

The net-zero think tank said there was some 100 GW in new gas-fired power generation capacity under construction across the region and 70 GW in LNG import capacity.

“The continued expansion of LNG import infrastructure risks deepening exposure to the same supply disruptions and price volatility the crisis has brought to the fore,” Global Energy Monitor said. The outlet noted that Southeast Asia could boost its domestic natural gas production to reduce dependence on imported liquefied gas but warned that this would take time.

“GEM identifies at least 20 fields that could add around 62 bcm/y of production capacity by 2035, but new supply takes years to develop and may not even supply domestic power markets,” the think tank said.

Asia is the biggest buyer of liquefied natural gas and gas been ramping up related infrastructure for years, motivating the surge in planned production capacity as well. Yet gas prices were lower for much of that period, making such plans commercially viable. The war in the Persian Gulf led to a sharp drop in available liquefied gas supply, pushing prices significantly higher, sapping some Asian importers’ appetite for LNG.

Global Energy Monitor argued in its report that the war is putting Southeast Asia’s gas expansion to the test, noting that “much of the remaining planned expansion rests on three assumptions: that LNG will remain reliably available, that it will remain affordable enough to compete with alternatives, and that domestic gas can provide a fallback when imports are constrained.” Whether these assumptions have a sound basis is yet to be determined as the war extends into its seventh month.

Tyler Durden
Sat, 09/26/2026 – 21:00

Prepping For A Cashless Control Grid How Digital Currency Becomes Digital Control

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Prepping For A Cashless Control Grid How Digital Currency Becomes Digital Control

Authored by Milan Adams via Preppgroup,

When Money Stops Being Money

Something fundamental is vanishing, and most people will not notice until it is already gone. Not with a declaration. Not with a law passed in the dead of night. Simply, gradually, the option to buy something without creating a permanent record will disappear. The ability to save purchasing power outside of a system that can freeze it, monitor it, or program it will become a memory that seems almost fictional to those who never experienced it.

I have watched this unfold over years of observing payment systems, reading central bank white papers that few citizens bother to examine, and noticing how my own transactions leave increasingly detailed trails. The pattern is consistent across nations: convenience precedes surveillance, and surveillance precedes control.

We are not approaching a cashless society. We are sleepwalking into it. And for anyone who values independence, privacy, or the basic human right to conduct commerce without surveillance, this represents not progress but regression toward a form of control that previous generations would have recognized immediately and resisted forcefully.

Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) are the mechanism of this transformation. The digital euro, the potential digital dollar, the digital yuan already operational in China – these are not simply modernizations of payment systems. They are structural changes to the relationship between the individual and the state, between commerce and surveillance, between freedom and permission. Once fully implemented, they would create a financial infrastructure where every transaction is visible, every purchase is logged, and every economic decision requires implicit or explicit approval from authorities.

This is not speculation. This is documented policy. The Bank for International Settlements, which coordinates central banking globally, has explicitly stated that CBDCs will enable “programmable money” – currency that can be restricted based on time, place, or purpose. The European Central Bank’s digital euro project includes provisions for offline payments only up to limited amounts, with all larger transactions requiring network connectivity and identity verification. The Federal Reserve’s FedNow system, launched in July 2023, created the technical infrastructure for instant digital payments that serves as the foundation for eventual CBDC implementation.

Three developments demand immediate attention:

1. Over 130 countries representing 98 percent of global GDP are now exploring CBDC implementation, with 11 countries including China, Nigeria, and the Bahamas already operational.

2. The United States government has accumulated over 207,000 bitcoin through seizures and asset forfeiture, creating a “Strategic Bitcoin Reserve” via Executive Order in March 2025, effectively centralizing control of assets that were designed to resist centralized control.

3. Cash usage has declined 60 percent in the United States since 2017, with 41 percent of Americans reporting they use no cash in a typical week, removing the practical habit of anonymous exchange before the infrastructure to support it disappears.

The implications extend far beyond convenience or efficiency. They strike at the heart of what it means to be a free individual in a society that claims to value liberty.

How We Got Here

Understanding how we arrived at this moment requires examining the incremental steps that normalized surveillance as the default condition of economic life. Each step seemed reasonable in isolation. Together, they would construct a control grid that previous generations would have found intolerable.

Credit cards provided the foundation. Introduced in the 1950s as a convenience for travelers, they became ubiquitous by the 1990s. Each purchase created a record: what you bought, where you bought it, when you bought it. This data accumulated in databases owned by card networks and banks, available to law enforcement with a subpoena and to corporations for marketing analysis. Still, cash remained an alternative. The option to opt out of the surveillance economy persisted.

Debit cards expanded the tracking to daily purchases. Digital payment platforms – PayPal, Venmo, Cash App – added social networks to financial transactions, creating public records of private exchanges. Apple Pay and Google Wallet merged biometric identity with payment authorization, conditioning users to authenticate every purchase with fingerprints or facial recognition. Each innovation reduced friction and increased surveillance simultaneously.

The COVID-19 pandemic accelerated cash elimination dramatically. Merchants discouraged physical currency citing hygiene concerns. Governments distributed stimulus payments exclusively through digital channels. Online commerce, already growing, became the primary mode of consumption for millions who had previously resisted it. Between 2019 and 2021, cash usage in the United States dropped from 26 percent of transactions to 20 percent, with the decline concentrated in urban areas and among younger demographics.

Central banks observed these trends and recognized opportunity. If the public was already abandoning cash voluntarily, the infrastructure for digital currency could be established without the resistance that would accompany explicit elimination of physical money. CBDCs could be introduced as improvements – faster, cheaper, more secure – while gradually restricting the alternatives until withdrawal became impractical.

China’s digital yuan (e-CNY) provides the operational model. Launched in pilot programs in 2020 and expanded nationwide by 2024, it now processes over $250 billion in annual transactions. The system combines direct central bank accounts for citizens with programmable features including expiration dates on certain stimulus funds, geographic restrictions on usage, and integration with China’s social credit system. Citizens who speak against the government online find their digital wallets frozen. Those with low social credit scores cannot purchase train tickets or flights. The system appears to work. It can control behavior with precision that physical coercion could never achieve.

Nigeria’s eNaira, launched in October 2021, demonstrates how CBDCs serve financial control even in developing economies. When the Nigerian government faced currency instability and capital flight, it imposed withdrawal limits on physical cash – initially 10,000 naira daily, later increased to 500,000 naira weekly – while promoting the digital currency. The result was immediate financial distress for the 40 percent of Nigerians who lack bank accounts and depend on cash for daily survival. Protests erupted. The policy was partially reversed, but the message was clear: digital currency serves state control, not citizen welfare.

The European Union’s digital euro project, currently in the “preparation phase” expected to last until 2026, includes features that should alarm anyone concerned with privacy. The ECB has confirmed that offline payments will be limited to 300 euros maximum, with all larger transactions requiring network connectivity and identity verification. “Holding limits” will restrict how much digital euro individuals can possess, forcing excess funds back into the banking system where they can be lent, tracked, and taxed. The stated rationale – preventing bank disintermediation – reveals the true purpose: maintaining financial surveillance and banking profitability simultaneously.

The United States has moved more cautiously, but the direction is identical. The FedNow instant payment system, operational since July 2023, provides the technical infrastructure for CBDC implementation. The Treasury Department’s 2022 framework for international engagement on digital assets explicitly supports CBDC development. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has stated that a digital dollar would require congressional authorization, but the technical preparation continues regardless, and crisis has historically served as the pretext for expanding government financial control.

Programmable Money, Programmable Behavior

The defining feature of CBDCs that distinguishes them from existing digital payments is programmability – the ability to encode rules directly into currency that determine when, where, and for what purposes it can be spent. This capability would transform money from a neutral medium of exchange into a tool of social engineering and behavioral control.

Consider the implications. A government concerned about carbon emissions could program digital currency to be invalid for gasoline purchases beyond a monthly quota. Authorities worried about public health could restrict spending on sugary foods, alcohol, or tobacco for individuals with certain medical conditions. Officials seeking to control population movement could limit where digital currency functions geographically, effectively imprisoning citizens without physical barriers.

These are not hypothetical scenarios. They are explicit capabilities discussed in central bank research papers and already implemented in limited forms. China’s digital yuan includes “red envelope” stimulus funds with expiration dates, forcing recipients to spend quickly rather than save. Brazil’s Pix payment system, while not technically a CBDC, has been used to restrict welfare payments to specific merchant categories. The European Central Bank has acknowledged that digital euros could carry “environmental footprints” based on transaction carbon calculations.

The integration of CBDCs with social credit systems, already operational in China and under exploration in other nations, would create comprehensive behavioral control. Purchase history reveals political affiliations – donations to disfavored causes, subscriptions to opposition media, payments to controversial organizations. Location data from mobile payments tracks movements and associations. Combined with social media monitoring, email surveillance, and facial recognition, this creates a total information awareness system where dissent becomes financially suicidal.

Canada’s response to the 2022 trucker protests provided a preview. When demonstrators occupied Ottawa protesting vaccine mandates, the Canadian government invoked the Emergencies Act and froze bank accounts of protesters and donors without judicial process. Over 280 accounts totaling $8 million were frozen. Insurance policies were canceled. Credit cards suspended. The government demonstrated that in a digital financial system, political opposition can be economically eliminated within hours.

Critics noted that this was possible because Canada already had comprehensive financial surveillance infrastructure. CBDCs would make such actions simpler, faster, and more comprehensive. No court orders required. No appeals possible. The money simply stops working.

Negative interest rates provide another mechanism of control that CBDCs enable. In a cash-based economy, individuals can withdraw physical currency to avoid losing money to negative rates. In a CBDC system, cash does not exist. Savings can be programmed to depreciate automatically, forcing spending or investment. This “helicopter money” with strings attached represents a fundamental violation of property rights that classical economists would have recognized as theft.

The March 2025 Executive Order establishing a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve reveals how even decentralized cryptocurrencies are being absorbed into state control. The order directed the Treasury and Commerce Departments to develop “strategies for acquiring additional bitcoin” while requiring all federal agencies to inventory digital assets they hold. The stated purpose – “national prosperity” – masks the consolidation of cryptocurrency under government management. When the state becomes the largest holder of bitcoin, when agencies develop “acquisition strategies,” the independence that cryptocurrency promised turns into another asset under centralized control.

The Infrastructure of Total Surveillance

CBDCs do not operate in isolation. They function within a broader technological ecosystem designed for monitoring, prediction, and control. Understanding this infrastructure reveals why cash elimination represents an existential threat to liberty.

The foundation is identity. Every CBDC transaction requires verified identity, typically through biometric authentication – fingerprints, facial recognition, iris scans – that links economic activity to physical persons permanently. India’s Aadhaar system, covering 1.3 billion people, demonstrates the scale possible. China’s facial recognition network, with over 600 million cameras, shows the granularity achievable. When combined with CBDCs, these systems create financial surveillance that is total and unavoidable.

Artificial intelligence processes the data torrent that CBDCs generate. Machine learning algorithms analyze spending patterns to predict behavior, assess risk, and identify deviations. Purchases at unusual hours, transactions with flagged merchants, transfers to unverified accounts – these trigger automated alerts that can result in account freezes, enhanced scrutiny, or law enforcement referral without human intervention. The algorithm effectively serves as judge and jury.

Blockchain analysis, originally developed to trace cryptocurrency transactions, now applies to all digital payments. Chainalysis, Elliptic, and similar firms contract with governments to deanonymize financial flows. Even supposedly private cryptocurrencies can be traced through exchange records, IP addresses, and transaction patterns. The assumption that technology can provide financial privacy has proven false against state-level surveillance resources.

5G networks and the Internet of Things expand surveillance beyond transactions to environments. Smart home devices listen continuously. Smart vehicles track location and driving behavior. Smart appliances monitor energy usage patterns that reveal occupancy and activity. When combined with CBDC records, this creates a comprehensive life history: where you were, what you did, what you bought, who you met.

The “15-minute city” concept, promoted by urban planners and the World Economic Forum, illustrates how these technologies combine for control. By designating neighborhoods where residents can access all necessities within a 15-minute walk or bike ride, planners create environments where vehicle usage can be restricted, movement can be monitored, and economic activity can be channeled through approved vendors. CBDCs complete the system by ensuring that all transactions within these zones are tracked and can be restricted based on carbon quotas, social credit, or other criteria.

Smartphone dependency has already conditioned populations to accept constant connectivity and location tracking. The devices that seem essential for modern life are also surveillance tools that users pay to maintain. When CBDCs require smartphone apps for access, as most implementations propose, the population already carries the monitoring equipment voluntarily.

Data centers, concentrated in a few corporate and government facilities, store the accumulated information of billions of transactions. These facilities require enormous energy – data centers now consume 4 percent of global electricity, projected to reach 8 percent by 2030. They are vulnerable to power outages, cyber attacks, and government seizure. The concentration of financial data in these facilities creates systemic risk that cash dispersion avoided.

Preparing for the Transition

Recognition of these dangers is the first step toward preparation. The window for action narrows as cash infrastructure disappears and CBDC implementation accelerates. Effective preparation requires both defensive measures to preserve autonomy and offensive measures to resist control.

Immediate Actions (2024-2026):

1. Physical Cash Accumulation: Maintain at least three months of expenses in physical currency, stored securely outside of banking systems. Diversify denominations for flexibility. Recognize that cash acceptance is declining – use it regularly to maintain the habit in merchants and yourself.

2. Tangible Asset Conversion: Convert excess digital currency into physical goods with intrinsic value – precious metals, productive land, tools, ammunition, long-shelf-life food, medical supplies. These assets cannot be frozen remotely and maintain utility regardless of financial system status.

3. Local Network Development: Build relationships with neighbors, farmers, craftsmen, and service providers who accept cash or barter. Economic resilience depends on community trust, not digital platforms. Develop skills that provide value without institutional certification.

4. Privacy Technology Adoption: Use cash for sensitive purchases. Employ privacy-focused cryptocurrencies like Monero for digital transactions when necessary. Maintain self-custody of cryptographic keys – “not your keys, not your coins” applies to CBDCs absolutely, as government custody means government control.

5. Documentation and Legal Preparation: Maintain physical records of assets, transactions, and identities independent of digital systems. Understand legal protections for cash transactions and privacy rights in your jurisdiction. Prepare for scenarios where digital identity verification fails.

Medium-Term Strategies (2026-2030):

As CBDCs roll out, preparation must adapt to new constraints. Expect “holding limits” that force excess savings into monitored accounts. Anticipate geographic restrictions on where currency functions. Prepare for negative interest rates and expiration dates on stimulus funds.

Develop barter networks and local currencies that operate outside CBDC systems. Historical examples include the Wörgl experiment in 1930s Austria, where local scrip maintained economic activity during currency collapse. Modern local currencies in Berkshire, Massachusetts and Ithaca, New York demonstrate viability, though legal challenges exist.

Agricultural self-sufficiency reduces dependence on monitored supply chains. Even small-scale gardening provides food security and barter opportunities. Animal husbandry, food preservation, and seed saving represent skills that appreciate as systems become more fragile.

Energy independence – solar panels, battery storage, wood heat – reduces vulnerability to grid failures and “smart” utility monitoring that CBDCs will likely integrate with carbon rationing. The ability to survive without grid connectivity turns into survival capability when digital systems exclude you.

Community defense organizations, organized legally as neighborhood associations or agricultural cooperatives, provide mutual aid frameworks that can operate independently of state-controlled financial systems. These require trust-building that takes years and cannot be established during crisis.

The Psychology of Submission

Understanding why populations accept financial surveillance requires examining the psychological mechanisms that make control palatable. Each step toward CBDCs is marketed with benefits that obscure costs.

Convenience is the primary selling point. Digital payments are faster than counting change. Apps organize spending data automatically. Recurring payments eliminate bill management. These benefits are real, but they create dependency that makes resistance seem like self-imposed hardship rather than defense of liberty.

Security rhetoric exploits fear. CBDCs are promoted as protection against fraud, money laundering, and terrorism. The claim that “if you have nothing to hide, you have nothing to fear” reverses the presumption of innocence that underlies free societies. Privacy grows suspicious. Cash turns criminal.

Generational conditioning plays a role. Young adults who grew up with smartphones and social media have never experienced financial privacy. Sharing location, purchases, and preferences feels natural. The concept that economic activity could be private seems foreign, even suspicious. This demographic will accept CBDCs without resistance because they cannot imagine alternatives.

Crisis exploitation accelerates acceptance. Economic instability, pandemics, terrorism – each crisis provides pretext for expanded financial surveillance that would be rejected in calmer times. The Patriot Act’s expansion of financial monitoring after 2001, the COVID stimulus distribution through digital channels, the proposed climate tracking of carbon footprints – all follow this pattern.

Learned helplessness develops as individuals recognize surveillance but feel powerless to resist. “What can one person do?” becomes self-fulfilling prophecy. The system seems inevitable, so opposition seems futile. This psychology serves authoritarian interests by demobilizing resistance before it forms.

Social credit dynamics, even without formal systems, create self-censorship. Individuals modify behavior to maintain access to financial services, employment, and social standing. The panopticon effect – knowing you might be watched – produces conformity without actual surveillance. CBDCs make this control explicit and inescapable.

Global Patterns of Control

CBDC implementation varies globally, revealing different models of financial surveillance and control.

China: The digital yuan operates as part of comprehensive social credit system. Transaction data feeds social scores. Low scores result in travel restrictions, exclusion from quality education, and public shaming. The system works through carrots as well as sticks – high scores provide faster loan approval, better job opportunities, and social prestige. This represents totalitarian control through gamification.

European Union: The digital euro emphasizes “privacy” for small transactions while maintaining surveillance for larger amounts. The 300-euro offline limit and holding limits reveal concern with preventing bank disintermediation rather than protecting citizen liberty. The EU’s history of data protection regulation (GDPR) creates ironic contrast with financial surveillance expansion.

United States: Implementation remains contested, with political resistance from privacy advocates and banking lobbies concerned about disintermediation. The FedNow system provides technical foundation without explicit CBDC authorization. State-level resistance, including legislation in Florida and other states protecting cash acceptance, creates legal friction. The outcome remains uncertain but trends toward eventual implementation.

Developing Nations: Nigeria, Ghana, and other African nations use CBDCs primarily for financial inclusion and currency control rather than social engineering. The eNaira’s failure to achieve adoption despite cash restrictions demonstrates popular resistance when alternatives exist. India’s digital rupee focuses on reducing cash handling costs for government.

Authoritarian States: Russia, Iran, and Venezuela explore CBDCs primarily for sanctions evasion and capital control. These systems prioritize state survival over citizen welfare, providing previews of how CBDCs function under stress.

The Economic Consequences of Control

CBDCs would reshape economic behavior in ways that reduce productivity, innovation, and welfare even as they increase state control.

Savings rates would decline as negative interest rates and expiration dates discourage accumulation. Capital formation, the foundation of economic growth, would suffer. Individuals would spend on immediate consumption rather than long-term investment, knowing that saved money loses value.

Entrepreneurship would decline as financial surveillance increases regulatory compliance costs and risk. Small businesses operate on cash margins that CBDCs eliminate. The informal economy, which employs billions globally, would contract as transactions become visible and taxable.

Innovation would suffer as capital flows toward politically favored sectors rather than economically productive ones. CBDC programmability enables industrial policy at the transaction level – funds directed toward green energy, social equity, or other state priorities regardless of market demand. Misallocation of resources follows inevitably.

International commerce would fragment as incompatible CBDC systems create barriers to cross-border transactions. Currency competition, which disciplines monetary policy, would disappear as digital currencies become tools of state power rather than market instruments.

Wealth concentration would accelerate as the wealthy maintain access to physical assets and offshore alternatives while the masses depend on programmable digital currency. The gap between those with escape options and those trapped in the system would widen dramatically.

Resistance and Resilience

Despite these trends, resistance remains possible and necessary. Historical examples provide guidance for maintaining liberty under financial surveillance.

Cash Preservation: Germany’s commitment to cash, rooted in memory of hyperinflation and totalitarianism, has slowed digital payment adoption. The Bundesbank explicitly promotes cash as “freedom money.” Similar cultural commitments can be cultivated elsewhere.

Cryptocurrency Innovation: Bitcoin, despite government accumulation, remains censorship-resistant for those who maintain self-custody. Layer-2 solutions like Lightning Network provide scalability. Privacy coins like Monero offer anonymity that Bitcoin lacks. Decentralized finance (DeFi) creates alternatives to banking systems.

Legal Challenges: Constitutional protections for privacy, property, and due process can be invoked against CBDC overreach. The Fourth Amendment’s protection against unreasonable searches applies to financial data. The Fifth Amendment’s takings clause limits negative interest rates. Litigation can delay and constrain implementation.

Political Organization: Electoral pressure, particularly in primary elections where motivated minorities determine outcomes, can punish CBDC proponents. Bipartisan coalitions uniting privacy advocates, civil libertarians, and financial traditionalists can block legislation.

Economic Subsistence: Reducing dependence on the formal economy through self-employment, barter, and local production limits CBDC control. The Amish and other traditional communities demonstrate that modern life is possible without full financial system participation.

What Comes Next

The next five years will determine whether CBDCs become universal instruments of control or face sufficient resistance to preserve alternatives. Several scenarios appear probable:

Gradual Implementation: Most likely, CBDCs are introduced as options alongside cash, which is then gradually restricted through merchant acceptance requirements, reporting thresholds, and physical elimination. By 2030, cash becomes functionally unavailable for most transactions without explicit prohibition that might trigger resistance.

Crisis Acceleration: Economic collapse, cyber attack, or pandemic provides pretext for emergency CBDC implementation with temporary restrictions that become permanent. The Patriot Act model applied to currency.

Fragmented Resistance: Some nations implement comprehensive CBDCs while others preserve cash and privacy. Capital and talent flow toward liberty, creating competitive pressure that constrains surveillance in some jurisdictions.

Technological Disruption: Decentralized alternatives achieve sufficient scale and usability to compete with CBDCs, creating parallel economies that limit state control. Regulatory arbitrage favors jurisdictions that respect financial privacy.

The outcome depends on choices made now, while options remain open. Once CBDC infrastructure is complete and cash eliminated, restoration of privacy becomes technologically and politically nearly impossible.

Final Preparation

I have watched payment systems evolve from cash registers to smartphones, from anonymous transactions to biometric verification. I have read central bank papers that describe “financial inclusion” in language that masks surveillance. I have noticed how my own spending patterns create profiles that algorithms can predict with disturbing accuracy.

The cashless control grid represents a sophisticated form of the risks that previous generations prepared against. Where they feared bank failure and currency devaluation, we face surveillance and programmability – risks that are harder to see but no less real. The preparation is similar: maintain assets outside the system, develop skills that provide independence, build community that can sustain mutual aid, and never trust that today’s convenience will be tomorrow’s freedom.

The structures are being built now. The surveillance infrastructure is operational. The legal frameworks are being established. The only question is whether populations will recognize the danger before the cage door closes.

Recognition comes first. Preparation follows. Resistance, if it comes, must be early and sustained. The alternative is a world where every transaction requires permission, every purchase feeds surveillance, and every economic decision is subject to approval by authorities who claim to act in your interest while strip-mining your liberty.

Tyler Durden
Sat, 09/26/2026 – 19:50

Cuba In Crosshairs: US Army Reportedly Checks Troop Availability As Trump Says Communist Regime “Will Fail”

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Cuba In Crosshairs: US Army Reportedly Checks Troop Availability As Trump Says Communist Regime “Will Fail”

President Trump told the United Nations General Assembly on Tuesday that the failed communist island nation of Cuba would see freedom, as the U.S. has not been shy about its intentions to kick the communist regime out of Havana. The U.S. has employed gunboat diplomacy through an oil blockade this year, as the failed state has seen its economy collapse even further.

“My administration is also seeking a fundamental change in the situation in Cuba, where the communist regime is under great pressure, the biggest pressure they’ve ever been under. It’s an absolutely failed state; it’s failing like never before, and it will fall,” Trump said in his speech at UNGA.

With Trump’s UNGA comments in mind, CBS News reports that it has reviewed an internal Army memo assessing the availability of military police, medical teams, and logistics units for possible use under Southern Command within 90 to 120 days.

The memo does not mention Cuba, identify troop numbers, or specify an operation. It also contains no indication that units have received deployment orders so far.

Here’s more color from the report:

The document reviewed by CBS News says Army Reserve headquarters is seeking feedback from subordinate commands on the possible availability of six types of formations that would fall under the authority of U.S. Southern Command. The units would “possibly [be] needed in 90-120 days,” according to the message, which directs commands to provide feedback to Army Reserve headquarters by Sept. 25. 

Among the units is a combat sustainment support battalion that specializes in coordinating logistics such as transportation, maintenance, fuel and supply needs, along with an engineer battalion. The document also seeks an expeditionary sustainment command that would oversee logistics across a theater of operations. 

The document generated last week also calls for a medical brigade to command and coordinate medical units, as well as a forward resuscitative and surgical detachment to provide emergency surgery and trauma care closer to U.S. forces. Finally, the document seeks a military police brigade — these units typically oversee military police forces responsible for security, detention and other law enforcement missions. 

In July, CBS reported that military planners had examined an air assault involving thousands of soldiers from the 101st Airborne Division. Another report by Politico in August suggested that the U.S. intelligence community had “sent spies and assets” to Cuba. Specifically, the outlet reported that the CIA had increased its presence on the island, which sits about 90 miles south of Florida.

 

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Tyler Durden
Sat, 09/26/2026 – 19:15

Indian Refiners Lift LPG Output Nearly 20% As Hormuz Blockage Chokes Imports

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Indian Refiners Lift LPG Output Nearly 20% As Hormuz Blockage Chokes Imports

Authored by Irina Slav via OilPrice.com,

Indian state refiners are ramping up their production of liquefied petroleum gas amid a seasonal jump in demand as the country enters festive season and imports from the Middle East remain strangled.

So far in September, local production of LPG has averaged 44,000 tons daily, Indian media reported, citing Bloomberg data. This was close to 20% more than the August average, despite diversification in imports from the United States and Africa, The Telegraph reported.

India has also boosted imports from the United Arab Emirates in recent months. The UAE has ramped up its exports of crude oil and products despite the war, managing the Strait of Hormuz via a pipeline bypass to Fujairah for crude and by shuttling exports on small vessels to the Gulf of Oman, from where it loads fuels onto larger tankers for export out of the Middle East.

The Telegraph noted that despite the import diversification and festive season, demand for liquefied petroleum gas in India was likely to remain lower than last year because of demand destruction in the industrial sector. The UAE, meanwhile, remains India’s largest supplier of the energy commodity. ADNOC recently confirmed that despite the situation in Hormuz, it will deliver all contracted LPG volumes for Indian buyers in October.

“As India’s largest LPG supplier, ADNOC remains fully committed to meeting our customers’ needs and supporting India’s energy security,” a spokesperson for the Emirati major told Bloomberg. “We continue to provide reliable and secure LPG supplies to our customers in India and work closely with them to meet their requirements.”

Some 60% of Indian households rely on liquefied petroleum gas as their primary cooking fuel, and the blockage at the Strait of Hormuz, where 90% of all Indian LPG imports used to pass through, was immediately felt by consumers, leading to demand destruction.

Tyler Durden
Sat, 09/26/2026 – 18:40

A Dollar Is Not A Dollar: A Plea To Make Dollar Policy Great Again

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A Dollar Is Not A Dollar: A Plea To Make Dollar Policy Great Again

Authored by John Tamny via RealClearMarkets,

Le Diplomate is one of the toughest tables in Washington, DC. When it opened in 2013 its wildly popular Burger Americain (with French fries) set diners back $14, according to the Washington Post. Thirteen years later, the same meal retails for $29. As Tim Carman and Federica Cocca report at the Post, “the wholesale price of ground beef has soared between 18 and 30 percent in the past few years.”

Ok, so why the higher ground beef prices, and beef prices in general? As you read this barbecue restaurants in Texas are quite literally removing brisket from the menu so expensive has it become, while a basic “Little Cheeseburger” at Five Guys costs more than $10, without French fries. Costs are soaring for seemingly the simplest of meats.

Carman and Cocca point to “Drought conditions” as the “primary reason for the rise in prices,” due to reduced domestic cattle herds. They add that “Domestic cattle shortages mean more beef is arriving from abroad – and it’s more expensive, up from $4.96 per pound in June 2025 to $5.59 per pound in June 2026.”

The factors Carman and Cocca point to are difficult to lean on as big drivers of soaring beef prices. That’s because globalization, or the division of labor, is generally not a cost accelerant.

Moving to the Trump administration, Carman and Cocca report that inside the White House they’re yelling at the proverbial scoreboard with antitrust threats lobbed at the major domestic producers of beef, alongside a reduction in tariffs. The first solution is silly, while the second one is a reminder of the illiteracy informing economic policy within the modern GOP. Which brings us to the purpose of this piece.

Not discussed enough is the dollar. Reporters, politicians, and pundits talk endlessly about the prices of market goods, but almost never about the currency in which those market goods are priced. Their blithe countenance about the dollar reveals a major blind spot in their analysis.

That’s because per the title of this opinion piece, a dollar isn’t a dollar. Instead, the dollar’s valuation is a moving target. Very much so.

Consider the WSJ Dollar Index. Since Donald Trump’s inauguration in January of 2025, the dollar has fallen 6.3 versus various foreign currencies on the Index.

What about gold? Known for its constancy, the yellow metal’s per ounce price doesn’t move as much as the currencies measured in terms of gold do. Notable here is that gold is up roughly 63% since Trump’s inauguration, and up 205% since 2013 when Le Diplomate charged $14 for a cheeseburger. This is not nothing.

Again, the dollar isn’t a dollar in the way that a foot is always 12 inches, the minute 60 seconds, and the pound 16 ounces. Floated in 1971, the dollar has moved up and down since then. Down substantially under Presidents Nixon and Carter, up substantially under Presidents Reagan and Clinton, and then down substantially under Presidents Bush (W.), Obama and Trump. Commodities are very sensitive to the dollar’s movements, and reflect them.

Which explains this opinion piece’s plea. It’s not random that costs from ground beef, to brisket, to gasoline have soared in modern times, rather it’s not insignificantly a reflection of a declining dollar.

Cheeseburgers, brisket sandwiches and gallons of gasoline aren’t expensive as much as the modern dollar is cheap. President Trump thinks a weak dollar is “great.” He’s wrong. See Le Diplomate, see Texas barbecue, and see prices at the pump. How about making a stable dollar great again to reverse a price explosion?

John Tamny is editor of RealClearMarkets, President of the Parkview Institute, a senior fellow at the Market Institute, and a senior economic adviser to Applied Finance Advisors (www.appliedfinance.com). His latest book is The Deficit Delusion: Why Everything Left, Right and Supply Side Tell You About the National Debt Is Wrong.

Tyler Durden
Sat, 09/26/2026 – 12:50

Nor’easter Hammers East Coast: 62 MPH Gusts Blast Nantucket, High Winds Hit Bethany Beach

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Nor’easter Hammers East Coast: 62 MPH Gusts Blast Nantucket, High Winds Hit Bethany Beach

Folks in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast are waking up this morning to a power nor’easter with damaging winds, coastal flooding, and heavy rain. 

Coastal wind gusts reached 62 mph on Nantucket, 58 mph in Bethany Beach, Delaware, and 55 mph in Chatham, Massachusetts, according to local weather data. New York’s JFK Airport recorded a 53 mph gust. Winds are expected to continue through Sunday. 

“Powerful nor’easter bringing major coastal flooding & damaging winds to the East Coast,” NWS Weather Prediction Center wrote on X around lunchtime in New York, adding, “Roads are underwater at the Jersey Shore & gusts hit 64 mph on Nantucket. More flooding likely at high tides tonight & Sun. Turn Around, Don’t Drown.”

Private weather forecasting firm NY NJ PA Weather provided a detailed map of the impacts for the Northeast through the weekend:

A nor’easter will impact the region this morning through Monday evening. Rain has developed along the coast. Rainfall will become widespread by 2 PM this afternoon and begin pushing inland through the evening. Meanwhile, winds will increase from the Northeast to 15 to 30 mph.

The worst conditions will be tomorrow morning, with torrential downpours, wind gusts up to 70 mph on the immediate coast, and visibility below a mile, producing poor travel conditions, power outages, flash flooding, and coastal flooding. Conditions will gradually improve from tomorrow afternoon through Monday afternoon as the storm weakens while lifting towards southern New England.

ZONE 1: Rain 2″ -4″, Winds 15-30 mph with gusts over 50 mph, high coastal flooding threat.

ZONE 2: Rain 1″ -2″, Winds 15-30 mph with gusts over 40 mph, high urban/river flooding threat.

ZONE 3: Rain 0.” – 1″, Winds 15-30 mph with gusts over 30 mph

ZONE 4: Rain 0.10″-0.50″, Winds 10-20 mph with gusts under 30 mph

According to the utility tracking website PowerOutage.us, more than 90,000 customers across New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, and Pennsylvania are without power.

Footage:

The good news is that no hurricanes have formed in the Atlantic so far this year, with a strengthening El Niño helping suppress hurricane development by increasing wind shear, which makes it harder for storms to organize and intensify.

Tyler Durden
Sat, 09/26/2026 – 12:25

“I’m Rejecting Their Deal”: Trump Blasts Iranian Proposal Amid Reports He’ll Resume Bombing After Midterms

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“I’m Rejecting Their Deal”: Trump Blasts Iranian Proposal Amid Reports He’ll Resume Bombing After Midterms

Speaking to reporters Saturday on the White House lawn, President Trump offered his first direct confirmation that he has rejected an Iranian proposal for a seven-day ceasefire and is open to the resumption of attacks on the Islamic Republic, as it still insists on its strict demands for reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending the war.

The night prior, The Wall Street Journal was the first to report that “President Trump has rejected Iran’s proposal for a seven-day ceasefire and has told aides he expects to resume bombing Iran after the November midterms, U.S. officials said.” Here’s how the president responded to a reporter’s question Saturday morning:

“Well I’m rejecting their deal,” Trump responded. While in the fresh verbal interaction he did not explicitly state he plans to resume bombing, he also obviously did not deny the premise of the question (resumption of bombing Iran).

“They want to make a deal where they open the strait immediately because they’re losing so badly,“ Trump continued. “You know you don’t read that, you don’t see that in the fake news.”

“We’re winning tremendously. We have total control of the Hormuz Strait, massive amounts of oil are coming out of the Hormuz Strait,” he claimed. “Last night we had 29 ships come out. They want to make a deal, and I think that’s fine, I like making a deal, too, but that deal would not be acceptable.”

“And what they want to do is immediately open the Hormuz Strait. You know why? Because they’re dying,” Trump said. “You know why they’re dying? Because they have no money coming in. Because they get their money from the Hormuz Strait.“

He continued: “So they outsmarted themselves. They said, ‘Let’s close it and cause a problem for the world.’ And then I came along and we put up the greatest blockade ever in military history. It’s a wall of steel.”

“I would put it up and guess what? They don’t have any money now because they wanted to close the strait. And I said, ‘That’s fine, we’re going to close it on you. But everybody else is able to use it,'” Trump added.

Analysis: President Trump thinks a better deal is just around the corner and he is willing to set the region on fire again in his pursuit of it.

For a brief moment there was hope that the warring sides could get back to ‘technical talks’ based on interactions on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly meeting in New York this past week. Some premature headlines even stated talks at the technical level were already taking place, which the Iranian side was quick to deny.

But at this point that scenario is clearly not going to happen coming out of the UNGA gathering, as President Masoud Pezeshkian has also now flown out of New York and is headed home, state media outlets have indicated.

Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi ⁠previously said, “If the necessary conditions are met, the strait can be reopened, a normal maritime passage restored within seven days. The choice ‌now ⁠rests with the United States.” He explained: “The actions that the United States should take ⁠are not new. They are all already in the MoU.” Tehran has said all along it would not back off its conditions for ending the war. The FM was said to be waiting in New York for a response before going back to Tehran. Presumably he too will now return to his country.

Trump was clearly not satisfied with the Iranian 7-day roadmap after he demanded the “complete dismantling” of Iran’s nuclear program as a key condition for any deal. The Iranians have insisted the question of nuclear enrichment can only be discussed after the war is ended, saving the issue for a future time.

What’s the next phase or gameplan here from Washington’s perspective? Regional analyst and editor of Amwaj.media, Mohammad Ali Shabani, offers the following: “The next phase of the war will likely revolve around destroying Iran’s economic infrastructure. The method is collective immiseration until desperate Iranians with nothing to lose will do the regime change.” This of course sets the US on a trajectory of yet another ‘forever war’ in the region.

Tyler Durden
Sat, 09/26/2026 – 12:00

Syria Opens Overland Fuel Transit Route To Iraq Amid Hormuz Closure

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Syria Opens Overland Fuel Transit Route To Iraq Amid Hormuz Closure

Via The Cradle

Syria has begun trucking imported gasoline from its Baniyas Refinery into Iraq, adding a return leg to a route Baghdad has used to export its fuel since the US war on Iran led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a senior Syrian oil official told Reuters on 25 September.

According to Tareq Shallash, who heads the Refining Directorate at the state-owned Syrian Petroleum Company (SPC), the first consignment – roughly 32,800 metric tons of gasoline – arrived aboard the Marshall Islands-flagged tanker Avanti and was pumped into storage at Baniyas before being loaded onto trucks this week.

Source: Reuters

Shallash said 77 tanker trucks have so far set off for the Iraqi border, with loading still in progress and more cargoes on the way.

He stressed that the fuel neither originates in Syria nor comes out of stocks earmarked for domestic consumption.

The shipments move under a transit contract between SPC and Qatar’s UCC Holding, which Shallash identified as both the supplier and the firm managing transport.

Iraq’s Oil Ministry confirmed the arrangement, with spokesperson Saleem al-Rikabi telling Reuters that “A contract was signed between SOMO and the Qatari company to supply Iraq with improved gasoline through the port of Baniyas by road tankers, and the supplies have in fact been delivered on a regular basis.”

Shallash said the deal is currently restricted to gasoline, though future agreements could open the route to crude, other petroleum products, and additional goods. 

Baghdad has already pledged to keep building overland alternatives through Syria even if Hormuz reopens, and Reuters reported in July that Iraqi fuel oil moved via Baniyas had reached the US for the first time. 

With Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz, Iraq – unable to ship its oil – has opened its borders to Syria. Thousands of fuel-laden tankers are being sent to the world market overland through Syria. Iraq has closed its airports to Iran’s planes.

UCC Holding is also part of a consortium with Chevron and TI Capital studying the revival of a Kirkuk–Baniyas crude pipeline, after Iraq and Syria signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) in Washington in July. 

Reuters reported in August that the project could take four years and cost at least $15 billion, because it would require entirely new infrastructure. 

Tyler Durden
Sat, 09/26/2026 – 11:40

The Commercial Real Estate Crash Is Moving From Paper Losses To Realized Losses

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The Commercial Real Estate Crash Is Moving From Paper Losses To Realized Losses

The great commercial real estate waiting game may finally be running out of time, according to Bloomberg.

For years after Covid fundamentally changed how Americans use office space, lenders and property owners managed to postpone much of the financial damage. Loans were modified, maturities were pushed out and buildings were given more time to recover. The basic assumption was that eventually interest rates would come down, employees would spend more time downtown and refinancing markets would reopen.

Instead, many owners are reaching the end of the runway with rates still elevated and buildings worth dramatically less than the debt sitting against them.

Chicago’s Aon Center offers an almost absurd illustration. The 83-story skyscraper changed hands for $712 million in 2015 and was subsequently refinanced, with $536 million of debt eventually packaged into commercial mortgage-backed securities. Today, after losing important tenants, the building is worth nowhere near that amount. Its latest appraisal came in at just $195 million — a decline of roughly 73% from its 2015 purchase price.

Bloomberg writes that when the debt matured in July, the owner couldn’t repay it and sought another three years to sort things out. This time the lender wasn’t interested. The request was “unequivocally denied.”

Situations like this are beginning to pile up across the country. Office loans packaged into CMBS are now delinquent at a 12% rate, according to Trepp. That puts distress near an all-time high and, remarkably, beyond the levels seen in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis. Meanwhile, approximately $64 billion of office CMBS loans come due this year and next. Nearly $40 billion of that pile is already delinquent, in default or flagged as potentially troubled.

But this isn’t one uniform nationwide office collapse.

New York has been surprisingly resilient, with finance, law and technology companies still competing for desirable space. San Francisco, despite enormous problems left over from the pandemic, has received a new source of demand from the AI boom.

Other cities have considerably less working in their favor. Chicago’s downtown office vacancy rate is roughly 27%. Denver’s has reached an astonishing 39%. Los Angeles and several other downtown markets are also struggling, especially in areas dominated by older office stock.

There’s also increasingly a tale of two office markets within individual cities. Companies willing to spend money on office space generally want newer buildings, good locations and modern amenities. That leaves yesterday’s Class B towers fighting over a shrinking pool of tenants while their economics deteriorate.

And some of the repricing has been brutal.

Denver’s Republic Plaza has lost roughly 80% of its value compared with when Brookfield financed the property in 2012. Chicago’s Citadel Center recently changed hands for $137 million, approximately 76% below what the building sold for in 2006. The situation is bad enough that CoStar expects roughly 11.5 million square feet of Chicago-area office space to simply disappear through demolition by 2031.

Even those enormous valuation declines may understate what lenders ultimately recover.

Distressed office properties sold this year have fetched prices roughly 20% below their latest appraisals, according to Deutsche Bank research cited in the report. In other words, marking a building down dramatically on paper doesn’t necessarily mean you’ve marked it down enough.

There is, however, another side to the collapse. Once prices fall far enough, someone eventually decides the risk is worth taking. That process is now beginning. Investors are stepping into buildings at fractions of their former valuations, effectively resetting the cost basis of properties that made little economic sense at yesterday’s prices.

The same 601W connected to the troubled Aon Center recently bought Chicago’s 175 West Jackson Boulevard for only $41 million, nearly 90% below its pre-Covid sale price. Elsewhere in Chicago, investors acquired the debt behind another major tower for around $100 million, roughly 76% below the building’s previous purchase price.

That’s probably the most important part of what is happening now. An office recovery doesn’t necessarily require these buildings to regain anything close to their old valuations. It requires the old valuations to finally die.

For years, the industry could avoid discovering what many of these buildings were actually worth because lenders kept extending loans and owners kept waiting. As maturities arrive and extensions become harder to obtain, those theoretical losses increasingly have to become actual ones.

And only after that happens can buildings move into new hands at prices that make sense in the post-Covid world. As Polpo Capital’s Dan McNamara put it: “One of the scariest headlines is that office CMBS delinquencies are higher than after 2008.”

“And it’s going to go higher as we face more maturities.”

Tyler Durden
Sat, 09/26/2026 – 11:05